1 00:00:15,396 --> 00:00:24,556 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hello, Hello, Revisions History listeners. We are back with 2 00:00:24,636 --> 00:00:27,836 Speaker 1: a very very special announcement. I have a new book 3 00:00:27,876 --> 00:00:31,036 Speaker 1: coming out. It's called Revenge of the Tipping Point. It's 4 00:00:31,036 --> 00:00:33,476 Speaker 1: a sequel to The Tipping Point, my very first book 5 00:00:33,516 --> 00:00:37,356 Speaker 1: from twenty five years ago. It's like a little silver 6 00:00:37,396 --> 00:00:41,876 Speaker 1: anniversary present for you, my loyal listeners. The original Tipping 7 00:00:41,916 --> 00:00:44,716 Speaker 1: Point was about how the best way to understand ideas 8 00:00:44,996 --> 00:00:48,116 Speaker 1: and behaviors and social change was to use the model 9 00:00:48,156 --> 00:00:51,876 Speaker 1: of the epidemic. This time around, in Revenge of the 10 00:00:51,916 --> 00:00:56,076 Speaker 1: Tipping Point, I'm taking those ideas and going one big 11 00:00:56,116 --> 00:01:02,036 Speaker 1: step deeper. Now I'm interested in the dark side. I 12 00:01:02,116 --> 00:01:04,836 Speaker 1: go to Miami and try and figure out why Miami 13 00:01:04,876 --> 00:01:08,036 Speaker 1: is so strange. I go to a seemingly perfect little 14 00:01:08,036 --> 00:01:11,836 Speaker 1: town called Popular Growth, where a tragedy is unfolding. I 15 00:01:11,836 --> 00:01:14,556 Speaker 1: have a chapter on the Holocaust that I think will 16 00:01:14,596 --> 00:01:19,236 Speaker 1: completely surprise you. Yet another takedown of Harvard University. I know, 17 00:01:19,356 --> 00:01:22,196 Speaker 1: I know, I'm a broken record, but I'm inordinately proud 18 00:01:22,236 --> 00:01:25,836 Speaker 1: of this one. On and on a mixture of narrative 19 00:01:25,956 --> 00:01:31,796 Speaker 1: ingredients baked into a highly entertaining suffle. And today we're 20 00:01:31,836 --> 00:01:37,076 Speaker 1: sharing an exclusive preview of Chapter one of the audiobook 21 00:01:37,116 --> 00:01:39,556 Speaker 1: of Revenge of the Tipping Point. It's all about bank 22 00:01:39,636 --> 00:01:42,196 Speaker 1: robbers and doctors. And that's all I'm going to tell you, 23 00:01:42,556 --> 00:01:45,876 Speaker 1: because you'll have to listen to find out more. But 24 00:01:45,996 --> 00:01:48,636 Speaker 1: that's not all. Coming up in the next couple of 25 00:01:48,636 --> 00:01:51,916 Speaker 1: weeks on revisionist history, we have all kinds of goodies 26 00:01:51,956 --> 00:01:54,756 Speaker 1: related to my book. We've got a two part episode 27 00:01:54,756 --> 00:01:58,116 Speaker 1: on maybe my favorite criminal trial ever, something I call 28 00:01:58,716 --> 00:02:02,636 Speaker 1: the Georgetown Massacre. Then an episode where I go back 29 00:02:02,676 --> 00:02:04,876 Speaker 1: and audit the chapter I wrote on crime in the 30 00:02:04,916 --> 00:02:08,236 Speaker 1: original Tipping Point. Did I get it right? And finally 31 00:02:08,236 --> 00:02:10,436 Speaker 1: we're going to run the comment station I'm having with 32 00:02:10,516 --> 00:02:12,756 Speaker 1: the editor of The New Yorker, David Remnick, at the 33 00:02:12,836 --> 00:02:16,516 Speaker 1: ninety second Street y in New York. Stay tuned and 34 00:02:16,556 --> 00:02:20,076 Speaker 1: for now enjoy this preview of Revenge of the Tipping Point. 35 00:02:21,716 --> 00:02:23,996 Speaker 1: You can find Revenge of the Tipping Point wherever you 36 00:02:24,036 --> 00:02:35,036 Speaker 1: get your audiobooks. Part one three Puzzles, Chapter one Casper 37 00:02:35,716 --> 00:02:41,316 Speaker 1: and Sea Dog. It was just like wildfire. Everyone was 38 00:02:41,396 --> 00:02:48,956 Speaker 1: jumping into the gate. One In the early afternoon of 39 00:02:49,036 --> 00:02:52,876 Speaker 1: November twenty ninth, nineteen eighty three, the Los Angeles Field 40 00:02:52,876 --> 00:02:56,796 Speaker 1: office of the Federal Bureau of Investigation received a call 41 00:02:56,836 --> 00:02:59,796 Speaker 1: from a Bank of America branch in the Melrose District. 42 00:03:00,276 --> 00:03:03,876 Speaker 1: The call was taken by an FBI agent named Linda Webster. 43 00:03:04,556 --> 00:03:06,956 Speaker 1: She was the person in the office who fielded what 44 00:03:07,036 --> 00:03:11,276 Speaker 1: were known as two elevens shorts. A bank robbery's there 45 00:03:11,276 --> 00:03:13,756 Speaker 1: had just been a hold up. She was told the 46 00:03:13,796 --> 00:03:16,916 Speaker 1: suspect was a young white male wearing a New York 47 00:03:16,996 --> 00:03:22,796 Speaker 1: Yankees baseball cap, slender, polite Southern accent, well dressed. He 48 00:03:22,836 --> 00:03:26,876 Speaker 1: said please and thank you. Webster turned to her colleague, 49 00:03:27,036 --> 00:03:30,476 Speaker 1: William Rader, who ran the FBI's local bank robbery division. 50 00:03:31,116 --> 00:03:39,956 Speaker 1: Bill it's the Yankee. The Yankee Bandit had been active 51 00:03:39,956 --> 00:03:43,196 Speaker 1: in Los Angeles since July of that year. He had 52 00:03:43,236 --> 00:03:46,516 Speaker 1: hit one bank after another, slipping away each time with 53 00:03:46,596 --> 00:03:50,876 Speaker 1: thousands of dollars in a leather suitcase. Raider was growing frustrated. 54 00:03:51,236 --> 00:03:54,036 Speaker 1: Who was this man? All the bureau had to go 55 00:03:54,116 --> 00:03:58,436 Speaker 1: on was that telltale baseball cap, hence the nickname the 56 00:03:58,556 --> 00:04:03,756 Speaker 1: Yankee Bandit. Half an hour passed, Webster got another to eleven. 57 00:04:04,236 --> 00:04:07,956 Speaker 1: This one was from a City National Bank sixteen blocks 58 00:04:07,996 --> 00:04:11,436 Speaker 1: west in the Fairfax District. They had been taken for 59 00:04:11,556 --> 00:04:15,396 Speaker 1: two thousand, three hundred and forty nine dollars. The caller 60 00:04:15,436 --> 00:04:19,796 Speaker 1: gave Webster the details. She looked at Raider, Bill, it's 61 00:04:19,796 --> 00:04:24,316 Speaker 1: the Yankee again. Forty five minutes after that, the Yankee 62 00:04:24,396 --> 00:04:27,876 Speaker 1: hit a Security Pacific National Bank in Centry City, then 63 00:04:28,036 --> 00:04:31,156 Speaker 1: immediately walked one block down the street and held up 64 00:04:31,196 --> 00:04:34,356 Speaker 1: a First Interstate Bank for two thousand, five hundred and 65 00:04:34,396 --> 00:04:39,036 Speaker 1: five dollars. Bill, it's the Yankee twice, back to back. 66 00:04:40,236 --> 00:04:43,316 Speaker 1: Less than an hour passed, the phone rang again. The 67 00:04:43,396 --> 00:04:46,396 Speaker 1: Yankee had just hid an Imperial Bank on Wilshire Boulevard. 68 00:04:46,836 --> 00:04:49,396 Speaker 1: If you drive from Centry City to the Imperial Bank 69 00:04:49,436 --> 00:04:53,156 Speaker 1: on Wiltshire, you pass right by the FBI's office. He 70 00:04:53,276 --> 00:04:57,836 Speaker 1: probably waived at us. Raider told Webster they were now unnoticed. 71 00:04:58,076 --> 00:05:02,316 Speaker 1: History was being made. They waited, could the Yankee possibly 72 00:05:02,356 --> 00:05:07,196 Speaker 1: strike again? At five point thirty, the phone rang. An 73 00:05:07,276 --> 00:05:11,836 Speaker 1: unknown white male slender an accent Yankee cap had just 74 00:05:11,956 --> 00:05:15,756 Speaker 1: robbed the First Interstate Bank in Encino, fifteen minutes north 75 00:05:15,836 --> 00:05:18,796 Speaker 1: on the four or five Freeway, for two thousand, four 76 00:05:18,876 --> 00:05:24,116 Speaker 1: hundred and thirteen dollars. Bill, it's the Yankee. One man, 77 00:05:24,716 --> 00:05:30,476 Speaker 1: four hours, six banks. It was a New World's record, 78 00:05:30,796 --> 00:05:37,836 Speaker 1: Raider would later write in his memoirs Still Unbroken two, 79 00:05:40,276 --> 00:05:43,516 Speaker 1: no criminal has ever held as exalted a position in 80 00:05:43,556 --> 00:05:47,556 Speaker 1: American culture as the bank robber. In the years after 81 00:05:47,596 --> 00:05:50,596 Speaker 1: the Civil War, the country was riveted by the exploits 82 00:05:50,836 --> 00:05:54,156 Speaker 1: of bands such as the James Younger Gang, who terrorized 83 00:05:54,156 --> 00:05:56,596 Speaker 1: the wild West with bank hold ups and trained robbers. 84 00:05:57,556 --> 00:06:02,116 Speaker 1: In the Depression, bank robbers became celebrities. Bonnie and Clyde, 85 00:06:02,436 --> 00:06:05,836 Speaker 1: pretty Boy Floyd John Dillinger, Billy brought. 86 00:06:05,636 --> 00:06:09,036 Speaker 2: To Chicago recaptured after he had escaped from Lima, Ohio. 87 00:06:09,116 --> 00:06:12,716 Speaker 2: Despert public enemy now rises to fame as an underworld hero. 88 00:06:13,436 --> 00:06:17,116 Speaker 2: Where is Clyde Beryl and Bonnie Parker who died as 89 00:06:17,156 --> 00:06:19,076 Speaker 2: they lived by a gun. 90 00:06:20,716 --> 00:06:23,476 Speaker 1: But in the years after the Second World War, the 91 00:06:23,556 --> 00:06:28,596 Speaker 1: crime seemed to be fading. In nineteen sixty nine, a 92 00:06:28,636 --> 00:06:32,076 Speaker 1: total of thirteen hundred and eighteen banks were robbed across 93 00:06:32,116 --> 00:06:36,036 Speaker 1: the entire United States, a modest number given the size 94 00:06:36,036 --> 00:06:39,716 Speaker 1: of the country. There was speculation that bank robberies were 95 00:06:39,756 --> 00:06:44,236 Speaker 1: headed toward extinction. Few major crimes had higher arrest and 96 00:06:44,316 --> 00:06:48,156 Speaker 1: conviction rates. Banks felt they had learned how to protect themselves. 97 00:06:48,676 --> 00:06:52,476 Speaker 1: A definitive study at bank robbery was entitled nothing to lose, 98 00:06:52,876 --> 00:06:56,516 Speaker 1: meaning that the act seemed so irrational that its perpetrators 99 00:06:56,756 --> 00:06:59,836 Speaker 1: must have run out of other options. It seemed like 100 00:06:59,876 --> 00:07:04,316 Speaker 1: the twentieth century equivalent of cattle rustling, who does it anymore? 101 00:07:05,156 --> 00:07:09,476 Speaker 1: But then came an epidemic. In a single year, from 102 00:07:09,556 --> 00:07:12,756 Speaker 1: nineteen sixty nine to nineteen seventy the number of bank 103 00:07:12,836 --> 00:07:16,876 Speaker 1: robberies nearly doubled, then rose again in nineteen seventy one, 104 00:07:17,196 --> 00:07:21,356 Speaker 1: and once more in nineteen seventy two. In nineteen seventy four, 105 00:07:21,716 --> 00:07:25,556 Speaker 1: three thousand, five hundred and seventeen banks were robbed. Two 106 00:07:25,676 --> 00:07:28,556 Speaker 1: years later, the number was four thousand, five hundred and 107 00:07:28,636 --> 00:07:32,036 Speaker 1: sixty five. By the beginning of the nineteen eighties, they 108 00:07:32,076 --> 00:07:35,316 Speaker 1: were five times more bank robberies than there had been 109 00:07:35,596 --> 00:07:38,316 Speaker 1: at the end of the nineteen sixties. It was a 110 00:07:38,316 --> 00:07:42,316 Speaker 1: crime wave without precedent, and it was just getting started. 111 00:07:43,636 --> 00:07:46,396 Speaker 1: In nineteen ninety one, the FBI fielded a two to 112 00:07:46,436 --> 00:07:49,276 Speaker 1: eleven call from a bank somewhere in the United States 113 00:07:49,916 --> 00:07:54,796 Speaker 1: nine thousand, three hundred and eighty eight times, And the 114 00:07:54,836 --> 00:07:58,436 Speaker 1: center of this astonishing surge was the city of Los. 115 00:07:58,276 --> 00:08:03,036 Speaker 2: Angeles, the sprawling city that's home to Hollywood movie capital 116 00:08:03,076 --> 00:08:06,476 Speaker 2: of the world is also the bank robbery capital of 117 00:08:06,556 --> 00:08:07,036 Speaker 2: the world. 118 00:08:07,876 --> 00:08:11,156 Speaker 1: A quarter of all bank robberies in the US in 119 00:08:11,196 --> 00:08:14,676 Speaker 1: those years happened in Los Angeles. There were years when 120 00:08:14,676 --> 00:08:18,196 Speaker 1: the local FBI office handled as many as twenty six 121 00:08:18,316 --> 00:08:23,036 Speaker 1: hundred bank robberies. So many robbers robbing so many banks 122 00:08:23,236 --> 00:08:25,556 Speaker 1: that Raider and the Bureau were forced to give them 123 00:08:25,636 --> 00:08:29,036 Speaker 1: nicknames to keep them straight. The man who disguised himself 124 00:08:29,076 --> 00:08:33,036 Speaker 1: with surgical gauze became the Mummy Bandit. The man who 125 00:08:33,036 --> 00:08:36,556 Speaker 1: are a single glove became naturally the Michael Jackson Bandit. 126 00:08:36,876 --> 00:08:39,876 Speaker 1: A two man team who wore fake mustaches with the 127 00:08:39,916 --> 00:08:43,396 Speaker 1: Marx brothers. A short o beast robber was Miss Piggy. 128 00:08:43,836 --> 00:08:46,956 Speaker 1: A beautiful robber was the Miss America Bandit. A guy 129 00:08:47,036 --> 00:08:50,116 Speaker 1: who waved a knife was the Benni Hahonna Bandit. On 130 00:08:50,676 --> 00:08:53,236 Speaker 1: and on it went. They were robbers named after Johnny 131 00:08:53,236 --> 00:08:56,556 Speaker 1: Cash and Robert de Niro. One group robbed in threes, 132 00:08:56,956 --> 00:08:59,676 Speaker 1: one dressed as a biker, another as a cop, and 133 00:08:59,676 --> 00:09:02,676 Speaker 1: the third as a construction worker. Do you need to 134 00:09:02,716 --> 00:09:05,476 Speaker 1: ask what they were called? This was the nineteen eighties. 135 00:09:06,676 --> 00:09:10,396 Speaker 1: They were known as the Village People. It was just 136 00:09:10,556 --> 00:09:15,276 Speaker 1: like wildfire, remembers Peter Hoolihan, one of the unofficial historians 137 00:09:15,516 --> 00:09:19,836 Speaker 1: of the La Bank robbery Surge. Everybody was jumping into 138 00:09:19,836 --> 00:09:25,916 Speaker 1: the game. Ten years into the surge, incredibly, things got 139 00:09:25,996 --> 00:09:29,756 Speaker 1: much worse. The first generation of Ellie robbers were like 140 00:09:29,796 --> 00:09:32,396 Speaker 1: the Yankee Bandit. They walked up to a teller and 141 00:09:32,436 --> 00:09:35,116 Speaker 1: they had a gun, scooped up whatever cash was on hand, 142 00:09:35,276 --> 00:09:39,476 Speaker 1: and fled. People called them a bit dismissively note passers. 143 00:09:40,396 --> 00:09:42,436 Speaker 1: But then came a two man group called the West 144 00:09:42,516 --> 00:09:45,996 Speaker 1: Hills Bandits. The West Sails Gang went back to the 145 00:09:45,996 --> 00:09:49,356 Speaker 1: grand tradition of Jesse, James and Bonnie and Clyde. They 146 00:09:49,396 --> 00:09:53,036 Speaker 1: came in hot in wigs and masks, waving assault weapons. 147 00:09:53,556 --> 00:09:56,076 Speaker 1: They would force their way into the teller's cage and 148 00:09:56,196 --> 00:09:59,596 Speaker 1: clean out the entire bank, empty the vault if they could, 149 00:09:59,916 --> 00:10:04,796 Speaker 1: before executing a meticulously planned escape. The Bandits had a 150 00:10:04,836 --> 00:10:08,076 Speaker 1: bunker in the San Fernando Valley filled with military grade 151 00:10:08,076 --> 00:10:12,516 Speaker 1: weapons and twenty seven thousand rounds of ammunition to prepare 152 00:10:12,516 --> 00:10:16,876 Speaker 1: for what their leader believed was an imminent armageddon. Even 153 00:10:16,916 --> 00:10:19,916 Speaker 1: by the standards of nineteen nineties Los Angeles, the West 154 00:10:19,996 --> 00:10:24,836 Speaker 1: Hills Gang was a little crazy. On their fifth robbery, 155 00:10:25,116 --> 00:10:27,316 Speaker 1: the West Hills Gang broke into the vault of a 156 00:10:27,316 --> 00:10:30,636 Speaker 1: Wells Fargo bank in Tarzana and made off with four 157 00:10:30,716 --> 00:10:34,356 Speaker 1: hundred and thirty seven thousand dollars more than one million 158 00:10:34,396 --> 00:10:38,836 Speaker 1: in today's dollars. And then Wells Fargo made a crucial mistake. 159 00:10:39,476 --> 00:10:42,756 Speaker 1: The bank told the press exactly how much the West 160 00:10:42,796 --> 00:10:45,756 Speaker 1: Hills Gang had stolen. It was like putting a match 161 00:10:45,796 --> 00:10:50,156 Speaker 1: to kindling. Four hundred and thirty seven thousand, Are you 162 00:10:50,276 --> 00:10:53,716 Speaker 1: kidding me? One of the first to take notice was 163 00:10:53,756 --> 00:10:57,716 Speaker 1: an enterprising twenty three year old named Robert Sheldon Brown. 164 00:10:58,316 --> 00:11:03,036 Speaker 1: His street name was Casper. Casper did the math. I've robbed, 165 00:11:03,196 --> 00:11:05,676 Speaker 1: I've done burglaries, I've done a little bit of everything, 166 00:11:05,916 --> 00:11:08,716 Speaker 1: he would explain later. But the money couldn't compare to 167 00:11:08,756 --> 00:11:11,356 Speaker 1: the bank. You could go into a bank and in 168 00:11:11,436 --> 00:11:13,956 Speaker 1: two minutes get what on the streets would take you 169 00:11:13,996 --> 00:11:17,636 Speaker 1: six or seven weeks to get. John Wiley, one of 170 00:11:17,676 --> 00:11:21,516 Speaker 1: the prosecutors who eventually brought Casper to justice, remembers him 171 00:11:21,556 --> 00:11:25,556 Speaker 1: as a standout. He said, Casper was really ripped and 172 00:11:25,596 --> 00:11:26,316 Speaker 1: really smart. 173 00:11:26,916 --> 00:11:30,756 Speaker 3: Here he is he figured out the problem with robbing 174 00:11:30,796 --> 00:11:34,196 Speaker 3: banks is going into the bank, so he got somebody 175 00:11:34,236 --> 00:11:36,956 Speaker 3: else to do that. You would think, how could you 176 00:11:36,996 --> 00:11:40,956 Speaker 3: possibly get someone to rob a bank for you? And 177 00:11:40,996 --> 00:11:45,996 Speaker 3: that was his particular talent, was recruiting people to rob 178 00:11:46,076 --> 00:11:52,596 Speaker 3: banksworm and he recruited an unbelievable number of folks. He 179 00:11:52,796 --> 00:11:56,076 Speaker 3: was kind of a producer in Hollywood terms. 180 00:11:56,676 --> 00:12:00,196 Speaker 1: Casper had a partner in crime, Donzel Thompson, also known 181 00:12:00,236 --> 00:12:02,636 Speaker 1: as Sea Dog. They would pick a bank they thought 182 00:12:02,756 --> 00:12:05,236 Speaker 1: was ripe for a hit, then it'd find a getaway car, 183 00:12:05,556 --> 00:12:09,156 Speaker 1: known in gangs speak as the g ride. In the 184 00:12:09,156 --> 00:12:13,796 Speaker 1: early nineteen nineties, Los Angeles also experienced an astonishing surge 185 00:12:13,836 --> 00:12:17,476 Speaker 1: in carjackings, which were treated in the press as another 186 00:12:17,516 --> 00:12:21,636 Speaker 1: indication of the random mayhem sweeping the streets. But a 187 00:12:21,636 --> 00:12:24,756 Speaker 1: good chunk of it was actually just Casper and Sea Dog. 188 00:12:25,396 --> 00:12:27,796 Speaker 1: They had a guy they paid to acquire their g rides. 189 00:12:28,196 --> 00:12:31,116 Speaker 1: If you were doing as many bank robberies as Casper was, 190 00:12:31,636 --> 00:12:35,996 Speaker 1: you needed a lot of cars. Then he would pick 191 00:12:36,036 --> 00:12:38,196 Speaker 1: the crew Prosecutor Wiley. 192 00:12:38,276 --> 00:12:43,716 Speaker 3: Again, a lot of his robbers were just kids. I 193 00:12:43,716 --> 00:12:46,916 Speaker 3: think he probably paid some of them nothing. He just 194 00:12:47,036 --> 00:12:49,756 Speaker 3: coerced him into robbing. He was a big threatening guy, 195 00:12:50,436 --> 00:12:52,276 Speaker 3: and you know he was a member of the role 196 00:12:52,276 --> 00:12:56,796 Speaker 3: in the sixties was a very notorious crips gang. 197 00:12:57,476 --> 00:13:00,756 Speaker 1: Wiley recalled a particular recruit who was very young, no 198 00:13:00,836 --> 00:13:02,276 Speaker 1: more than thirteen or fourteen. 199 00:13:03,276 --> 00:13:06,676 Speaker 3: I remember he took the kid out of school and said, 200 00:13:06,716 --> 00:13:08,596 Speaker 3: you know, when can you rob this bank for me? 201 00:13:09,356 --> 00:13:14,316 Speaker 3: And the guy said during nutrition break. So during nutrition 202 00:13:14,436 --> 00:13:18,436 Speaker 3: break they picked him up and Brown and Thompson explained 203 00:13:18,476 --> 00:13:23,236 Speaker 3: how to do it. You go in scurbate to death, 204 00:13:23,996 --> 00:13:25,316 Speaker 3: get the money, get out. 205 00:13:26,236 --> 00:13:29,156 Speaker 1: Casper taught his recruits a technique he called go and 206 00:13:29,236 --> 00:13:33,036 Speaker 1: com akazi. His kids would come busting in, waving their 207 00:13:33,076 --> 00:13:36,636 Speaker 1: machine pistols and assault rifles, firing rounds at the ceiling 208 00:13:36,836 --> 00:13:39,276 Speaker 1: and screaming obscenities on the floor. 209 00:13:39,316 --> 00:13:39,516 Speaker 2: Mother. 210 00:13:40,876 --> 00:13:43,556 Speaker 1: They would stuff all the cash they could into pillowcases, 211 00:13:43,956 --> 00:13:47,916 Speaker 1: grab wallets, and rip rings off women's fingers if they 212 00:13:47,956 --> 00:13:51,756 Speaker 1: wanted a little extra treasure for the road. On at 213 00:13:51,876 --> 00:13:55,876 Speaker 1: least two jobs, Casper borrowed a school bus to ferry 214 00:13:55,876 --> 00:13:59,516 Speaker 1: his young charges to safety. Another time he borrowed a 215 00:13:59,556 --> 00:14:04,876 Speaker 1: postal service truck. Casper had imagination he would exercise managerial 216 00:14:05,036 --> 00:14:08,756 Speaker 1: oversight of his operations from a position of safety parked 217 00:14:08,756 --> 00:14:11,676 Speaker 1: in a car somewhere far down the block, then follow 218 00:14:11,716 --> 00:14:14,756 Speaker 1: his hand picked team as they raced through the streets. 219 00:14:15,436 --> 00:14:17,636 Speaker 3: These guys knew if they tried to get away with 220 00:14:17,676 --> 00:14:21,276 Speaker 3: them all the money that have these two roll in 221 00:14:21,396 --> 00:14:24,076 Speaker 3: sixties crips after him, and that would not improve their lives. 222 00:14:25,036 --> 00:14:27,876 Speaker 1: The g ride would be abandoned. The whole crew would 223 00:14:27,876 --> 00:14:31,236 Speaker 1: retreat to Casper's hideout, usually in a motel, where he 224 00:14:31,236 --> 00:14:34,116 Speaker 1: would pay them a pittance and let them go. They 225 00:14:34,156 --> 00:14:37,476 Speaker 1: were kids, Chances are they would get caught, but Casper 226 00:14:37,516 --> 00:14:41,116 Speaker 1: didn't care. Here's Wiley describing his general attitude. 227 00:14:41,876 --> 00:14:44,676 Speaker 3: I mean, okay, so that wasn't great. My guys got caught. 228 00:14:44,956 --> 00:14:46,836 Speaker 3: Now we have to get new guys. But we do 229 00:14:46,916 --> 00:14:47,676 Speaker 3: that all the time. 230 00:14:48,436 --> 00:14:53,196 Speaker 1: In just four years, Casper produced one hundred and seventy 231 00:14:53,236 --> 00:14:57,316 Speaker 1: five robberies, which remains a lifetime bank robbery world record, 232 00:14:57,676 --> 00:15:02,316 Speaker 1: crushing the Yankee Bandits previous mark of seventy two. Casper 233 00:15:02,316 --> 00:15:05,396 Speaker 1: and Sea Dog even came close to the Yankee Bandits 234 00:15:05,476 --> 00:15:08,796 Speaker 1: one day mark of six heists on a single day. 235 00:15:08,876 --> 00:15:11,396 Speaker 1: In a August of nineteen ninety one, they produced five 236 00:15:12,076 --> 00:15:15,716 Speaker 1: a first interstate bank on Losienega Boulevard, then banks in 237 00:15:15,796 --> 00:15:21,076 Speaker 1: Eagle Rock, Pasadena, Monterey Park, and Montebello. And remember the 238 00:15:21,156 --> 00:15:23,996 Speaker 1: Yankee bandit was a one man show. Casper was doing 239 00:15:24,036 --> 00:15:29,596 Speaker 1: something infinitely more difficult, organizing and supervising teams of robbers. 240 00:15:30,676 --> 00:15:33,556 Speaker 1: Once Casper showed the world how easy it was to 241 00:15:33,596 --> 00:15:36,956 Speaker 1: take over a bank, other gangs jumped in. The eight 242 00:15:37,036 --> 00:15:40,916 Speaker 1: tray gangster crips started putting together cruise. A duo called 243 00:15:40,916 --> 00:15:43,956 Speaker 1: the Nasty Boys did almost thirty takeovers in under a 244 00:15:44,036 --> 00:15:48,276 Speaker 1: year just the two of them. The Nasty Boys were nasty. 245 00:15:48,876 --> 00:15:51,556 Speaker 1: They liked to herd everyone into the bank vault, talk 246 00:15:51,676 --> 00:15:54,996 Speaker 1: loudly about executions, and fire their guns next to people's 247 00:15:55,036 --> 00:15:56,796 Speaker 1: ears just for the fun of it. 248 00:15:57,596 --> 00:16:00,076 Speaker 3: In retrospect, nineteen ninety two turned out to be the 249 00:16:00,116 --> 00:16:04,756 Speaker 3: peak year for bank robberies. Two thousand, six hundred and 250 00:16:04,796 --> 00:16:06,356 Speaker 3: forty one robberies in one. 251 00:16:06,236 --> 00:16:07,796 Speaker 1: Year Wiley again. 252 00:16:08,236 --> 00:16:12,036 Speaker 3: So that averages one bank robbery every forty five minutes 253 00:16:12,076 --> 00:16:17,676 Speaker 3: for each banking day, and the worst day was twenty 254 00:16:17,676 --> 00:16:22,916 Speaker 3: eight bank robberies in one day. This drove the FBI 255 00:16:23,076 --> 00:16:26,876 Speaker 3: completely crazy. I mean they were completely exhausted. 256 00:16:27,716 --> 00:16:32,396 Speaker 1: Robbing a bank takes minutes. Investigating a bank robbery takes hours. 257 00:16:32,956 --> 00:16:35,716 Speaker 1: As the robberies piled up, the FBI would fall further 258 00:16:36,116 --> 00:16:37,076 Speaker 1: and further behind. 259 00:16:38,036 --> 00:16:40,916 Speaker 3: So if you're having twenty seven robberies a day, if 260 00:16:40,956 --> 00:16:44,596 Speaker 3: one team is committing five robberies in one day, I mean, 261 00:16:44,676 --> 00:16:48,276 Speaker 3: just think physically, how you investigate that. These guys are 262 00:16:48,356 --> 00:16:51,596 Speaker 3: driving all over town as fast as they can robbing, 263 00:16:52,316 --> 00:16:54,956 Speaker 3: so just keeping up with them in La traffic is 264 00:16:54,996 --> 00:16:58,236 Speaker 3: a problem. You get to the bank and how many 265 00:16:58,236 --> 00:17:00,556 Speaker 3: people have witnessed the robbery, Well, how many people were 266 00:17:00,556 --> 00:17:04,396 Speaker 3: in the bank, You know, twenty people, So you need 267 00:17:04,436 --> 00:17:08,556 Speaker 3: to get witness statements from twenty witnesses. This is a 268 00:17:08,556 --> 00:17:09,756 Speaker 3: big project. 269 00:17:10,076 --> 00:17:13,636 Speaker 1: Then just as you start, what happens. 270 00:17:14,156 --> 00:17:16,676 Speaker 3: You're on the scene for five or ten minutes, and 271 00:17:16,676 --> 00:17:21,396 Speaker 3: there's another bank robbery emergency somewhere across town. The FBI 272 00:17:21,476 --> 00:17:22,876 Speaker 3: was being run ragged. 273 00:17:23,916 --> 00:17:26,956 Speaker 1: The city of Los Angeles was the bank robbery capital 274 00:17:27,156 --> 00:17:29,836 Speaker 1: of the world. Wiley held up a chart of bank 275 00:17:29,916 --> 00:17:33,436 Speaker 1: robberies in Los Angeles from the nineteen seventies through the 276 00:17:33,556 --> 00:17:34,476 Speaker 1: nineteen nineties. 277 00:17:34,996 --> 00:17:37,356 Speaker 3: There was no reason to think it would crust. If 278 00:17:37,396 --> 00:17:40,956 Speaker 3: you look at the trend line, it just seems like 279 00:17:41,036 --> 00:17:42,396 Speaker 3: it's heading for the moon. 280 00:17:43,276 --> 00:17:46,436 Speaker 1: The FBI put fifty agents on the case. Over the 281 00:17:46,476 --> 00:17:48,676 Speaker 1: course of many months, they gathered what they could from 282 00:17:48,716 --> 00:17:52,716 Speaker 1: Casper and Sea Dogs, terrified recruits, sorted through the layers 283 00:17:52,756 --> 00:17:55,396 Speaker 1: of deception the two used to hide their assets and 284 00:17:55,476 --> 00:17:59,276 Speaker 1: track them from one address to another across South Los Angeles. 285 00:18:00,076 --> 00:18:02,396 Speaker 1: It took forever to get a grand jury to indict 286 00:18:02,476 --> 00:18:05,956 Speaker 1: Casper and Sea Dog, because what had they done? Nothing, 287 00:18:06,636 --> 00:18:08,996 Speaker 1: They didn't rob any banks. They were just sitting in 288 00:18:08,996 --> 00:18:13,716 Speaker 1: a car down the street. All the FBI had was 289 00:18:13,716 --> 00:18:17,756 Speaker 1: a testimony of terrified teenagers who skipped school between lunch 290 00:18:17,956 --> 00:18:23,876 Speaker 1: and recess. Finally, prosecutors thought they had enough evidence. They 291 00:18:23,876 --> 00:18:26,916 Speaker 1: found Sea Dog at his grandmother's house in Carson and 292 00:18:27,036 --> 00:18:30,076 Speaker 1: arrested Casper as he stepped out of a cab with 293 00:18:30,156 --> 00:18:33,116 Speaker 1: the two of them behind bars. The bank robbery fever 294 00:18:33,436 --> 00:18:37,716 Speaker 1: that had seized Los Angeles finally broke. Within roughly a year, 295 00:18:38,076 --> 00:18:40,796 Speaker 1: the number of robberies in the city dropped thirty percent, 296 00:18:41,316 --> 00:18:46,276 Speaker 1: then drifted even lower. Bank robberies didn't head for the moon. 297 00:18:46,836 --> 00:18:54,676 Speaker 1: The contagion passed. When Casper and Sea Dog got out 298 00:18:54,716 --> 00:18:57,116 Speaker 1: of federal prison in the summer of twenty twenty three, 299 00:18:57,636 --> 00:19:00,796 Speaker 1: they shopped their story around Hollywood and took meetings with 300 00:19:00,916 --> 00:19:05,636 Speaker 1: film producers. Movie executives who heard their story were incredulous 301 00:19:06,236 --> 00:19:24,076 Speaker 1: that happened here. Yes it did. Three. I want to 302 00:19:24,116 --> 00:19:27,636 Speaker 1: begin Revenge of the Tipping Point with a series of puzzles, 303 00:19:28,276 --> 00:19:33,396 Speaker 1: three interconnected stories that seem at first glance to defy explanation. 304 00:19:34,316 --> 00:19:38,676 Speaker 1: The third involves a little town called pop Lagrove. The 305 00:19:38,796 --> 00:19:42,356 Speaker 1: second involves the story of a man named Philip s Forms. 306 00:19:43,036 --> 00:19:46,476 Speaker 1: And this first chapter involves the exploits of the Yankee 307 00:19:46,516 --> 00:19:52,476 Speaker 1: Bandit and Casper and Sea Dog. The Los Angeles bank 308 00:19:52,556 --> 00:19:56,636 Speaker 1: robbery crisis of the early nineteen nineties was an epidemic. 309 00:19:57,076 --> 00:20:00,236 Speaker 1: It fit all rules. This was not an outbreak generated 310 00:20:00,396 --> 00:20:04,876 Speaker 1: inside each robber like a toothache. It was contagious. A 311 00:20:04,916 --> 00:20:08,196 Speaker 1: low grade fever surfaced across the United States at the 312 00:20:08,316 --> 00:20:10,996 Speaker 1: end of the nineteen six sixties. In the nineteen eighties, 313 00:20:11,196 --> 00:20:15,316 Speaker 1: the Yankee Bandit caught that bug in Los Angeles. The 314 00:20:15,356 --> 00:20:18,716 Speaker 1: West Hills Bandits later picked up that virus, and in 315 00:20:18,756 --> 00:20:22,436 Speaker 1: their hands it mutated into something darker and more violent. 316 00:20:22,836 --> 00:20:25,556 Speaker 1: They passed a new Strainnan to Caspar and Sea Dog, 317 00:20:25,716 --> 00:20:29,996 Speaker 1: who reinvented the process outsourcing the labor and scaling up 318 00:20:30,076 --> 00:20:34,236 Speaker 1: dramatically like the late twentieth century capitalists they were. And 319 00:20:34,316 --> 00:20:37,876 Speaker 1: from there the infection went clear across the city to 320 00:20:37,956 --> 00:20:40,876 Speaker 1: the Eight Tray gangsters and the Nasty Boys, and on 321 00:20:40,956 --> 00:20:44,116 Speaker 1: and on, sweeping up hundreds of young men, until by 322 00:20:44,156 --> 00:20:47,356 Speaker 1: the time the bank takeover boom peaked in Los Angeles, 323 00:20:47,756 --> 00:20:50,916 Speaker 1: the small time note passing of the Yankee Bandit era 324 00:20:51,596 --> 00:20:58,556 Speaker 1: seemed like a dim memory. Socio epidemics are propelled by 325 00:20:58,596 --> 00:21:03,276 Speaker 1: the efforts of an exceptional few people who play outsized 326 00:21:03,396 --> 00:21:08,196 Speaker 1: social roles, and that was exactly how the LA outbreak unfolded. 327 00:21:08,676 --> 00:21:11,756 Speaker 1: This was never a mass participation event like one of 328 00:21:11,756 --> 00:21:14,916 Speaker 1: those big city marathons where tons of thousands of people 329 00:21:14,956 --> 00:21:18,196 Speaker 1: sign up. It was a reign of mayhem, driven by 330 00:21:18,196 --> 00:21:22,076 Speaker 1: a small number of people who robbed over and over 331 00:21:22,436 --> 00:21:26,716 Speaker 1: and over again. The Yankee Bandit robbed sixty four banks 332 00:21:26,796 --> 00:21:30,276 Speaker 1: in nine months before the FBI finally grabbed him. He 333 00:21:30,316 --> 00:21:33,556 Speaker 1: went to prison for ten years, got out, then robbed 334 00:21:33,556 --> 00:21:37,436 Speaker 1: eight more banks. The Nasty Boys did twenty seven banks. 335 00:21:37,716 --> 00:21:41,436 Speaker 1: Casper and Sea Dog masterminded one hundred and seventy five. 336 00:21:41,796 --> 00:21:44,956 Speaker 1: If you focused only on the Yankee Bandit, Casper and 337 00:21:44,996 --> 00:21:47,956 Speaker 1: the Nasty Boys. You would have a pretty complete picture 338 00:21:47,996 --> 00:21:50,756 Speaker 1: of what happened in Los Angeles in the nineteen eighties 339 00:21:50,836 --> 00:21:55,876 Speaker 1: and early nineteen nineties, A contagious phenomenon that rose and tipped, 340 00:21:56,236 --> 00:22:00,836 Speaker 1: fueled by the extraordinary actions of a few Casper, while 341 00:22:00,836 --> 00:22:04,036 Speaker 1: he said, is the super spreader if you want to 342 00:22:04,076 --> 00:22:08,436 Speaker 1: talk about epidemics, was the context in the nineteen eighties 343 00:22:08,476 --> 00:22:12,916 Speaker 1: and the early nineteen nineties ripe for a bank robbery explosion? Yes, 344 00:22:12,956 --> 00:22:16,036 Speaker 1: it was. Between the nineteen seventies and the end of 345 00:22:16,036 --> 00:22:19,076 Speaker 1: the nineteen nineties, the number of bank branches in the 346 00:22:19,156 --> 00:22:23,636 Speaker 1: United States tripled. Casper and Sea Dog were shooting fish 347 00:22:23,676 --> 00:22:27,036 Speaker 1: in a barrel. The fever that swept Los Angeles in 348 00:22:27,076 --> 00:22:31,116 Speaker 1: the late nineteen eighties and early nineteen nineties makes perfect sense, 349 00:22:31,956 --> 00:22:34,956 Speaker 1: except for one thing. There's a puzzle. 350 00:22:40,836 --> 00:22:41,116 Speaker 3: Four. 351 00:22:44,156 --> 00:22:48,756 Speaker 1: In the early morning of March ninth, nineteen fifty, Willie 352 00:22:48,756 --> 00:22:51,596 Speaker 1: Sutton rose and applied a heavy coat of makeup to 353 00:22:51,676 --> 00:22:55,596 Speaker 1: his face. The previous evening he had dyed his hair 354 00:22:55,796 --> 00:22:59,356 Speaker 1: several shades lighter, so that he was almost blonde, and 355 00:22:59,396 --> 00:23:02,476 Speaker 1: now he wanted to pair that with an olive complexion. 356 00:23:03,156 --> 00:23:06,836 Speaker 1: He applied mascara to his eyebrows. To give them some substance. 357 00:23:07,356 --> 00:23:10,716 Speaker 1: He stuffed bits of cork inside his nostrils to broaden 358 00:23:10,756 --> 00:23:14,036 Speaker 1: his nose. That he put on a gray suit, tailored 359 00:23:14,076 --> 00:23:18,636 Speaker 1: and padded in such a way as to alter his silhouette. Satisfied, 360 00:23:18,676 --> 00:23:21,596 Speaker 1: did he no longer look like Willy Sutton? Willie Sutton 361 00:23:21,676 --> 00:23:25,436 Speaker 1: left his house in Staten Island for Sunnyside, Queen's to 362 00:23:25,516 --> 00:23:29,036 Speaker 1: a Manufacture's Trust Company branch at forty fourth Street and 363 00:23:29,156 --> 00:23:33,436 Speaker 1: Queen's Boulevard in New York City. Sutton had spent the 364 00:23:33,636 --> 00:23:37,956 Speaker 1: previous three weeks standing across the street every morning, learning 365 00:23:37,996 --> 00:23:41,556 Speaker 1: the routines of the bank's employees. He liked what he saw. 366 00:23:42,116 --> 00:23:45,076 Speaker 1: There was an elevated subway stop across the street, a 367 00:23:45,116 --> 00:23:48,996 Speaker 1: bus stop, and a taxi stand. The street was busy 368 00:23:49,476 --> 00:23:53,156 Speaker 1: and Sutton like crowds. The bank's guard, a slow moving 369 00:23:53,236 --> 00:23:56,516 Speaker 1: man named Weston who lived nearby, arrived every morning at 370 00:23:56,516 --> 00:24:01,196 Speaker 1: eight thirty, engrossed in his newspaper. Between eight thirty and nine, 371 00:24:01,476 --> 00:24:04,476 Speaker 1: he would let in the bank's other employees, culminating in 372 00:24:04,516 --> 00:24:09,556 Speaker 1: the bank's manager, mister Hoffman, who arrived like clockwork at 373 00:24:09,636 --> 00:24:13,596 Speaker 1: nine o one. The Manufacturer's Trust opened to the public 374 00:24:13,716 --> 00:24:17,196 Speaker 1: at ten o'clock, much later than most bank branches. This 375 00:24:17,396 --> 00:24:21,276 Speaker 1: too made Sutton happy. He regarded the time between the 376 00:24:21,396 --> 00:24:24,276 Speaker 1: arrival of the first employee and the arrival of the 377 00:24:24,316 --> 00:24:28,276 Speaker 1: first customer as his time, and his time in this 378 00:24:28,396 --> 00:24:32,196 Speaker 1: case would be more than an hour. At eight twenty, 379 00:24:32,756 --> 00:24:35,476 Speaker 1: Sutton mingled with the crowd waiting at the bus stop. 380 00:24:35,996 --> 00:24:39,196 Speaker 1: A few minutes later, the Castilian Weston turned the corner, 381 00:24:39,396 --> 00:24:42,516 Speaker 1: lost in his newspaper. As Weston took out his keys 382 00:24:42,556 --> 00:24:46,316 Speaker 1: to open the door, Sutton slipped in behind him. Weston 383 00:24:46,396 --> 00:24:49,876 Speaker 1: turned in shock. Sutton looked him in the eye and 384 00:24:49,916 --> 00:24:53,796 Speaker 1: said quietly, come inside. I want to talk to you. 385 00:24:55,436 --> 00:24:58,796 Speaker 1: Sutton wasn't a fan of guns. Guns for him were props. 386 00:24:59,356 --> 00:25:02,996 Speaker 1: His real weapon was a quiet authority that compelled the 387 00:25:02,996 --> 00:25:06,476 Speaker 1: attention of others. He explained to the guard what would 388 00:25:06,516 --> 00:25:10,276 Speaker 1: happen next. First they would let him one of his accomplices. 389 00:25:10,956 --> 00:25:15,236 Speaker 1: Then the remaining employees would be admitted, exactly as they 390 00:25:15,236 --> 00:25:19,636 Speaker 1: were each morning. As each one entered, Sutton's accomplice would 391 00:25:19,676 --> 00:25:22,796 Speaker 1: emerge and lead them by the elbow to a row 392 00:25:22,796 --> 00:25:26,676 Speaker 1: of chairs he'd set up in preparation. Once you've taken 393 00:25:26,756 --> 00:25:29,836 Speaker 1: control of the bank, Sutton would write years later in 394 00:25:29,916 --> 00:25:33,956 Speaker 1: his memoirs. Sutton was sufficiently famous by that point that 395 00:25:34,036 --> 00:25:37,356 Speaker 1: he wrote not one, but two sets of memoirs. Like 396 00:25:37,396 --> 00:25:39,596 Speaker 1: a statesman who feels the need to respond to the 397 00:25:39,636 --> 00:25:43,116 Speaker 1: turns of history, it doesn't really matter who comes to 398 00:25:43,156 --> 00:25:47,076 Speaker 1: the door. A trio of painters once arrived unexpectedly while 399 00:25:47,116 --> 00:25:49,796 Speaker 1: I was taking a bank in Pennsylvania, and I simply 400 00:25:49,836 --> 00:25:52,756 Speaker 1: told them to spread out their drop cloths and go 401 00:25:52,836 --> 00:25:55,596 Speaker 1: to work. The pay you guys get, the bank can't 402 00:25:55,596 --> 00:25:58,636 Speaker 1: afford to have you hang around doing nothing. They're insured 403 00:25:58,676 --> 00:26:02,196 Speaker 1: against bank robbers, but nobody would insure them against you robbers. 404 00:26:03,036 --> 00:26:05,156 Speaker 1: All during the robbery, I was able to keep up 405 00:26:05,156 --> 00:26:07,516 Speaker 1: a line of chatter about how I could have retired 406 00:26:07,556 --> 00:26:10,516 Speaker 1: by now if we bankrobb had as stronger union as 407 00:26:10,556 --> 00:26:13,316 Speaker 1: they did. Everyone had a good time, and by the 408 00:26:13,316 --> 00:26:15,396 Speaker 1: time we walked out the door with the money, they 409 00:26:15,436 --> 00:26:21,876 Speaker 1: had one of the walls completely painted. Sutton was terrifyingly charming. 410 00:26:22,516 --> 00:26:26,356 Speaker 1: Did the employees of the Manufacturer's Trust Company realize that 411 00:26:26,476 --> 00:26:31,156 Speaker 1: the famous Willie Sutton was robbing them that morning? Undoubtedly 412 00:26:32,036 --> 00:26:35,356 Speaker 1: they filed into the conference room one by one. Don't 413 00:26:35,396 --> 00:26:38,636 Speaker 1: worry folks. He told them, it's only money, and it 414 00:26:38,716 --> 00:26:42,796 Speaker 1: isn't your money. At nine oh five, four minutes late, 415 00:26:43,156 --> 00:26:47,996 Speaker 1: mister Hoffman, the manager, arrived, Sutton sat him down. If 416 00:26:48,036 --> 00:26:50,436 Speaker 1: you give me any trouble, I want you to know 417 00:26:50,796 --> 00:26:53,836 Speaker 1: that some of these here employees of yours will be shot. 418 00:26:54,716 --> 00:26:58,676 Speaker 1: I don't want you to have any false illusions about that. Now. 419 00:26:59,076 --> 00:27:01,996 Speaker 1: Perhaps you don't care about your own safety, but the 420 00:27:02,036 --> 00:27:07,316 Speaker 1: health of these here employees of yours are your responsibility. 421 00:27:07,436 --> 00:27:11,036 Speaker 1: If anything happens to them, the blame will be yours, 422 00:27:11,916 --> 00:27:15,396 Speaker 1: not mine. It was a bluff, of course, but it 423 00:27:15,436 --> 00:27:18,356 Speaker 1: worked every time. He scooped up the money from the vault, 424 00:27:18,676 --> 00:27:21,476 Speaker 1: ambled out the door to a waiting getaway car, and 425 00:27:21,596 --> 00:27:26,116 Speaker 1: vanished into the New York City traffic. Willie Sutton was 426 00:27:26,196 --> 00:27:30,316 Speaker 1: the New York version of Casper, although that doesn't quite 427 00:27:30,396 --> 00:27:34,236 Speaker 1: do Willie Sutton justice. Nobody knew much about Casper at 428 00:27:34,276 --> 00:27:37,556 Speaker 1: the time he was orchestrating his bank robbery spree. Even 429 00:27:37,596 --> 00:27:40,916 Speaker 1: his trial barely made a dent in the news. Not 430 00:27:41,156 --> 00:27:42,196 Speaker 1: so Willie Sutton. 431 00:27:42,396 --> 00:27:46,036 Speaker 2: Willy Sutton, whose captur ends a five year manhunt still 432 00:27:46,036 --> 00:27:48,756 Speaker 2: carrying a big bank roll, the nation's most elusive bank 433 00:27:48,836 --> 00:27:53,276 Speaker 2: robber is arrested in Brooklyn, America's most wanted criminal, His 434 00:27:53,396 --> 00:27:54,356 Speaker 2: arrest brings promotion. 435 00:27:54,516 --> 00:27:57,716 Speaker 1: Sutton was a celebrity. He did it's starlit's. He was 436 00:27:57,756 --> 00:28:00,756 Speaker 1: a master of disguise. He made not one, but two 437 00:28:01,036 --> 00:28:04,356 Speaker 1: daring escapes from prison. He was once asked why do 438 00:28:04,356 --> 00:28:07,516 Speaker 1: you rob banks, and he replied, because that's where the 439 00:28:07,516 --> 00:28:10,756 Speaker 1: money is. Later he would deny having said that, but 440 00:28:10,796 --> 00:28:13,436 Speaker 1: it didn't matter. To this day. His quip is known 441 00:28:13,476 --> 00:28:17,396 Speaker 1: as Sutton's law, and it's used to instruct medical students 442 00:28:17,676 --> 00:28:22,916 Speaker 1: on the importance of considering the likeliest diagnosis. First, Hollywood 443 00:28:22,956 --> 00:28:25,316 Speaker 1: made a movie about his life. A writer turned his 444 00:28:25,356 --> 00:28:28,916 Speaker 1: story into a biographical novel. In Today's Dollars, He claimed 445 00:28:28,916 --> 00:28:32,476 Speaker 1: to have stolen more than twenty million over the course 446 00:28:32,516 --> 00:28:36,156 Speaker 1: of his career. Casper wasn't even in the same tax 447 00:28:36,236 --> 00:28:40,356 Speaker 1: bracket as Willy Sutton, assuming of course, that they paid taxes, 448 00:28:40,796 --> 00:28:44,076 Speaker 1: which neither of them did. The point is that if 449 00:28:44,116 --> 00:28:47,596 Speaker 1: anyone were to start a bank robbery epidemic, you'd think 450 00:28:47,636 --> 00:28:50,356 Speaker 1: it would be Willy Sutton. You would think that the 451 00:28:50,396 --> 00:28:53,556 Speaker 1: impressionable criminal classes of New York City would look at 452 00:28:53,596 --> 00:28:58,276 Speaker 1: slick Willie effortlessly slipping into bank branches without firing a shot, 453 00:28:58,396 --> 00:29:01,716 Speaker 1: and making off with the king's ransom and say to themselves, 454 00:29:02,236 --> 00:29:06,516 Speaker 1: I can do that. In epidemiology, there's a term called 455 00:29:06,836 --> 00:29:10,956 Speaker 1: the index case, which refer to the person who kicks 456 00:29:10,956 --> 00:29:13,516 Speaker 1: off an epidemic. We're going to talk about one of 457 00:29:13,516 --> 00:29:17,436 Speaker 1: the most fascinating index cases in recent history later in 458 00:29:17,476 --> 00:29:21,876 Speaker 1: this book. Willie Sutton should have been the index case, right. 459 00:29:22,516 --> 00:29:25,396 Speaker 1: He turned the grubby job of holding up a bank 460 00:29:25,916 --> 00:29:30,556 Speaker 1: into a work of art. But Willie Sutton did not 461 00:29:30,756 --> 00:29:33,836 Speaker 1: start a bank robbery epidemic in New York City, not 462 00:29:33,996 --> 00:29:37,516 Speaker 1: in the nineteen forties and fifties, in his heyday, nor 463 00:29:37,716 --> 00:29:41,476 Speaker 1: in the years afterward, as he wrote one memoir after another. 464 00:29:42,156 --> 00:29:44,996 Speaker 1: After talking his way out of prison in nineteen sixty nine, 465 00:29:45,276 --> 00:29:48,956 Speaker 1: claiming ill health, he would live another eleven years, Sutton 466 00:29:49,156 --> 00:29:53,756 Speaker 1: recreated himself as an expert on prison reform, giving lectures 467 00:29:53,836 --> 00:29:57,036 Speaker 1: across the country. He consulted with banks on how to 468 00:29:57,076 --> 00:30:00,596 Speaker 1: prevent bank robberies. He even did a TV commercial for 469 00:30:00,676 --> 00:30:03,636 Speaker 1: a credit card company pioneering a card with a photo 470 00:30:03,716 --> 00:30:03,996 Speaker 1: on it. 471 00:30:04,276 --> 00:30:06,396 Speaker 4: They call it the face God. You see it as 472 00:30:06,436 --> 00:30:09,836 Speaker 4: your face right on it. Now when I say, Lily Sutton, 473 00:30:10,716 --> 00:30:11,556 Speaker 4: if I believe me. 474 00:30:12,476 --> 00:30:15,036 Speaker 1: Did that make the world want to be Willie Sutton? 475 00:30:15,676 --> 00:30:19,316 Speaker 1: Apparently not. In the days of Casper, New York City 476 00:30:19,356 --> 00:30:23,596 Speaker 1: suffered only a fraction of the bank robberies that Los 477 00:30:23,636 --> 00:30:29,916 Speaker 1: Angeles did. An epidemic, by definition, is a contagious phenomenon 478 00:30:30,116 --> 00:30:34,396 Speaker 1: that does not respect borders. When COVID first emerged in 479 00:30:34,476 --> 00:30:38,356 Speaker 1: China in late twenty nineteen, epidemiologists worried that it would 480 00:30:38,356 --> 00:30:42,396 Speaker 1: spread everywhere, and they were absolutely right. Yet in the 481 00:30:42,476 --> 00:30:47,476 Speaker 1: bank case, the fever engulfed Los Angeles but skipped other 482 00:30:47,516 --> 00:30:54,316 Speaker 1: cities altogether. Why this is the first of the three puzzles, 483 00:30:56,476 --> 00:31:00,676 Speaker 1: and the answer involves a famous observation made by a 484 00:31:00,716 --> 00:31:13,396 Speaker 1: physician named John Weinberg five life. In nineteen sixty seven, 485 00:31:13,796 --> 00:31:16,956 Speaker 1: fresh out of his medical training, John Wenburg got a 486 00:31:17,036 --> 00:31:20,556 Speaker 1: job in Vermont as part of a federally funded operation 487 00:31:20,956 --> 00:31:24,836 Speaker 1: called the Regional Medical Program. These were the years of 488 00:31:24,876 --> 00:31:28,076 Speaker 1: the Great Society, when the US government was making a 489 00:31:28,156 --> 00:31:33,156 Speaker 1: concerted effort to expand the American's social safety net. Weinberg's 490 00:31:33,236 --> 00:31:36,196 Speaker 1: job was to map the quality of care across the 491 00:31:36,236 --> 00:31:39,636 Speaker 1: state to make sure everyone was getting access to the 492 00:31:39,676 --> 00:31:44,836 Speaker 1: same standard of medicine. He was young and idealistic. He 493 00:31:44,876 --> 00:31:47,556 Speaker 1: had studied under some of the best minds in medicine 494 00:31:47,756 --> 00:31:52,356 Speaker 1: at Johns Hopkins University. Weinberg arrived in Vermont, he said later, 495 00:31:52,676 --> 00:31:56,676 Speaker 1: still believing quote in the general paradigm that science was 496 00:31:56,716 --> 00:32:01,436 Speaker 1: advancing and that it was being translated rationally into effective 497 00:32:01,476 --> 00:32:06,396 Speaker 1: care end quote. Vermont had two hundred and fifty one towns. 498 00:32:07,076 --> 00:32:11,316 Speaker 1: Weinburg began by dividing up those communities according to where 499 00:32:11,396 --> 00:32:15,796 Speaker 1: their local residents got their medical care. That left him 500 00:32:15,836 --> 00:32:20,996 Speaker 1: with thirteen hospital districts across the state. He then calculated 501 00:32:21,036 --> 00:32:23,356 Speaker 1: the amount of money that was spent on medical care 502 00:32:23,636 --> 00:32:27,796 Speaker 1: in each of those districts. Wenberg assumed that what he 503 00:32:27,836 --> 00:32:30,516 Speaker 1: would see was that in some far away corner of 504 00:32:30,596 --> 00:32:33,996 Speaker 1: Vermont where there wasn't much money, spending would be low, 505 00:32:34,356 --> 00:32:38,236 Speaker 1: and by the same logic, in wealthier communities such as Burlington, 506 00:32:38,516 --> 00:32:41,076 Speaker 1: the biggest city in the state, home to the University 507 00:32:41,076 --> 00:32:44,396 Speaker 1: of Vermont and Champlain College, where the hospitals were the 508 00:32:44,436 --> 00:32:47,876 Speaker 1: newest and most sophisticated and the doctors more likely to 509 00:32:47,916 --> 00:32:51,836 Speaker 1: have trained at prestigious medical schools, spending would be a 510 00:32:51,876 --> 00:32:58,436 Speaker 1: bit higher. He was completely wrong. Yes, they were differences 511 00:32:58,436 --> 00:33:01,596 Speaker 1: in spending from one hospital district to the next. But 512 00:33:01,716 --> 00:33:06,236 Speaker 1: the differences weren't small. They were enormous, and they didn't 513 00:33:06,276 --> 00:33:10,196 Speaker 1: follow any apparent logic. They were as when put it 514 00:33:10,276 --> 00:33:15,516 Speaker 1: without rhyme or reason. Surgery for removing hemorrhoids, for example, 515 00:33:15,956 --> 00:33:20,116 Speaker 1: was five times more common in some districts than in others. 516 00:33:20,516 --> 00:33:24,636 Speaker 1: Your chances of getting an enlarged prostate surgically removed, or 517 00:33:24,676 --> 00:33:28,516 Speaker 1: your uterus removed in a hysterectomy, or your appendix removed 518 00:33:28,756 --> 00:33:32,236 Speaker 1: after an attack of appendicitis were three times higher in 519 00:33:32,276 --> 00:33:37,476 Speaker 1: some districts than in others. Here's Wenberg years later, describing 520 00:33:37,516 --> 00:33:40,076 Speaker 1: his early work in an interview with the Community Health 521 00:33:40,116 --> 00:33:42,836 Speaker 1: Centers podcast Conversations on Healthcare. 522 00:33:43,996 --> 00:33:46,716 Speaker 4: We first from at across this in Vermont, where we 523 00:33:47,356 --> 00:33:53,516 Speaker 4: looked at a whole bunch of different attributes of healthcare system. 524 00:33:53,556 --> 00:33:56,276 Speaker 4: The one that sticks out in most people's mind as 525 00:33:56,356 --> 00:34:01,156 Speaker 4: the incredible variation that we saw in time feleectomy rates, 526 00:34:01,356 --> 00:34:05,836 Speaker 4: where literally by going five miles up the road and 527 00:34:05,956 --> 00:34:10,476 Speaker 4: entering a new hospital service area, had jumped from about 528 00:34:10,476 --> 00:34:13,116 Speaker 4: a twenty percent risk of having a tonsil out by 529 00:34:13,156 --> 00:34:17,956 Speaker 4: age fifteen to well over sixty percent, So that gives 530 00:34:17,956 --> 00:34:22,596 Speaker 4: you an idea of what the basic variability was. And 531 00:34:22,676 --> 00:34:25,676 Speaker 4: this variation sembly could not be explained on the basis 532 00:34:25,716 --> 00:34:29,956 Speaker 4: of differences in the incidents of sword throats or tonsilitis 533 00:34:30,076 --> 00:34:32,156 Speaker 4: or anything like that, and it was traced pretty much 534 00:34:32,196 --> 00:34:35,556 Speaker 4: directly back to the medical opinion of the physicians and 535 00:34:35,596 --> 00:34:36,556 Speaker 4: the different communities. 536 00:34:37,476 --> 00:34:40,636 Speaker 1: Weinburg saw this firsthand. He was living at the time 537 00:34:40,796 --> 00:34:45,916 Speaker 1: midway between the small Vermont towns of Stowe and Waterbury. 538 00:34:45,996 --> 00:34:48,676 Speaker 1: His kids went to school in Waterbury, a town where 539 00:34:48,676 --> 00:34:51,956 Speaker 1: tons electomies were rare, But had Weinberg's family been living 540 00:34:51,996 --> 00:34:54,596 Speaker 1: one hundred yards north, his kids would have gone to 541 00:34:54,636 --> 00:34:59,556 Speaker 1: school in Stowe, where everyone got their tonsils out. It 542 00:34:59,676 --> 00:35:04,756 Speaker 1: made no sense. Stowe and Waterbury were both idyllic small towns, 543 00:35:04,996 --> 00:35:09,436 Speaker 1: full of weathered nineteenth century buildings. Nobody seriously I thought 544 00:35:09,596 --> 00:35:12,316 Speaker 1: that one was more worldly or was in the grip 545 00:35:12,356 --> 00:35:15,916 Speaker 1: of a different medical ideology than the other. It wasn't 546 00:35:15,956 --> 00:35:20,236 Speaker 1: that Stowe attracted one kind of person and Waterbury attracted another, 547 00:35:20,516 --> 00:35:23,836 Speaker 1: very different kind of person. The people were the same, 548 00:35:24,876 --> 00:35:28,436 Speaker 1: except that is that the children of Waterbury tended to 549 00:35:28,516 --> 00:35:31,876 Speaker 1: keep their tonsils and the children of Stowe did not. 550 00:35:34,076 --> 00:35:38,196 Speaker 1: Wenburg was now deeply confused had he stumbled upon some 551 00:35:38,316 --> 00:35:42,596 Speaker 1: strange quirk of the small towns of Vermont. He decided 552 00:35:42,636 --> 00:35:45,956 Speaker 1: to expand his analysis to other parts of New England. 553 00:35:47,916 --> 00:35:52,556 Speaker 1: He compared Middlebury, Vermont versus Randolph, New Hampshire. These two 554 00:35:52,596 --> 00:35:56,476 Speaker 1: cities are essentially twins. But when he looked further at 555 00:35:56,476 --> 00:35:59,916 Speaker 1: the data, he found that in Randolph the doctors conducted 556 00:35:59,956 --> 00:36:03,956 Speaker 1: themselves in a kind of over caffeinated frenzy, spending freely 557 00:36:04,196 --> 00:36:09,276 Speaker 1: hospitalizing and operating on everyone inside. But Middlebury Middlebury was 558 00:36:09,316 --> 00:36:13,596 Speaker 1: a different world. Weinberg called what he had discovered small 559 00:36:13,796 --> 00:36:17,516 Speaker 1: area variation, and he found evidence of it across the 560 00:36:17,756 --> 00:36:22,236 Speaker 1: entire United States. And what started as an idiosyncratic observation 561 00:36:22,676 --> 00:36:25,436 Speaker 1: about the small towns of Vermont has turned into an 562 00:36:25,436 --> 00:36:28,276 Speaker 1: iron law that, half a century after Weinberg made his 563 00:36:28,356 --> 00:36:32,956 Speaker 1: startling discovery, shows no signs of going away. How your 564 00:36:32,996 --> 00:36:36,716 Speaker 1: doctor treats you, in many cases, has less to do 565 00:36:36,876 --> 00:36:39,636 Speaker 1: with where your doctor was trained or how well he 566 00:36:39,756 --> 00:36:42,116 Speaker 1: or she did in medical school, or what kind of 567 00:36:42,156 --> 00:36:46,996 Speaker 1: personality your doctor has, than with where your doctor lives. 568 00:36:47,956 --> 00:36:52,276 Speaker 1: Why does place matter so much? The easiest explanation for 569 00:36:52,436 --> 00:36:55,756 Speaker 1: small area variation is that doctors are simply doing what 570 00:36:55,916 --> 00:36:59,956 Speaker 1: patients want. So, for example, let's pick a relatively simple 571 00:37:00,076 --> 00:37:03,876 Speaker 1: medical event, how many times a doctor visits a patient 572 00:37:04,196 --> 00:37:07,276 Speaker 1: in the last two years of their life. The national 573 00:37:07,356 --> 00:37:12,916 Speaker 1: average in twenty nineteen is around fifty four visits. In Minneapolis, 574 00:37:12,996 --> 00:37:17,596 Speaker 1: by contrast, the average is much lower, thirty six. But 575 00:37:17,676 --> 00:37:20,196 Speaker 1: you know what it is in Los Angeles, it's one 576 00:37:20,276 --> 00:37:24,756 Speaker 1: hundred and five. You get three times more doctor visits 577 00:37:24,756 --> 00:37:28,116 Speaker 1: in your dying days in LA than you do in Minneapolis. 578 00:37:28,556 --> 00:37:33,716 Speaker 1: That's a huge difference. Is it because dying Minnesotans behave 579 00:37:33,836 --> 00:37:37,356 Speaker 1: like stoic Scandinavians whereas the very old of Los Angeles 580 00:37:37,476 --> 00:37:40,676 Speaker 1: are needy in demanding The answer seems to be no. 581 00:37:41,796 --> 00:37:45,316 Speaker 1: Weenberg and other researchers have found that small area of 582 00:37:45,396 --> 00:37:49,516 Speaker 1: variation does not result from what patients want their doctors 583 00:37:49,556 --> 00:37:53,116 Speaker 1: to do. It stems from what doctors want to do 584 00:37:53,196 --> 00:37:58,516 Speaker 1: to their patients. So why do doctors behave so differently 585 00:37:58,676 --> 00:38:02,916 Speaker 1: from place to place? Is this just about money? Maybe 586 00:38:03,076 --> 00:38:05,956 Speaker 1: more people in Los Angeles have the kind of insurance 587 00:38:05,996 --> 00:38:10,396 Speaker 1: that rewards doctors for treating their patients aggressively. The technical 588 00:38:10,476 --> 00:38:13,716 Speaker 1: term for this is payer mix. A city with one 589 00:38:13,796 --> 00:38:16,836 Speaker 1: hundred percent of its citizens covered by fee for service 590 00:38:16,916 --> 00:38:19,756 Speaker 1: insurance where a doctor gets paid for everything they do 591 00:38:20,076 --> 00:38:22,236 Speaker 1: is going to have a very different pattern of care 592 00:38:22,516 --> 00:38:24,676 Speaker 1: than a city where one hundred percent of its citizens 593 00:38:24,996 --> 00:38:28,516 Speaker 1: are enrolled in managed care, where payments to doctors and 594 00:38:28,556 --> 00:38:32,596 Speaker 1: hospitals are fixed. But does Los Angeles have a radically 595 00:38:32,636 --> 00:38:37,516 Speaker 1: different payer mix than any other big city? No, it doesn't. Okay, 596 00:38:38,156 --> 00:38:41,476 Speaker 1: what if this is just random? After all, doctors are people, 597 00:38:41,836 --> 00:38:44,276 Speaker 1: and people are all over the map in what they believe. 598 00:38:44,596 --> 00:38:47,876 Speaker 1: Maybe Los Angeles is a place where, by chance, many 599 00:38:47,956 --> 00:38:51,676 Speaker 1: aggressive doctors happen to practice, while Minneapolis is a place where, 600 00:38:51,956 --> 00:38:53,876 Speaker 1: by chance, there are very few. 601 00:38:54,636 --> 00:38:54,676 Speaker 2: No. 602 00:38:55,756 --> 00:38:59,196 Speaker 1: Random would mean that aggressive doctors would be scattered across 603 00:38:59,236 --> 00:39:02,196 Speaker 1: the country in patterns that ebb and flow with each 604 00:39:02,236 --> 00:39:05,276 Speaker 1: passing year. Random would mean that every hospital would have 605 00:39:05,276 --> 00:39:08,956 Speaker 1: a different combination of physicians, representing a sampling of ideas 606 00:39:09,196 --> 00:39:11,956 Speaker 1: about how to practice medicine. They would be a doctor 607 00:39:12,036 --> 00:39:15,396 Speaker 1: Smith who always took out tonsils, and a doctor Jones 608 00:39:15,436 --> 00:39:17,996 Speaker 1: who never did, and then a doctor McDonald who was 609 00:39:18,036 --> 00:39:24,236 Speaker 1: somewhere in between. But that's not what Wemburg identified years ago. 610 00:39:24,716 --> 00:39:28,996 Speaker 1: What he found instead were medical clusters where the doctors 611 00:39:29,036 --> 00:39:32,756 Speaker 1: in one hospital district took on a common identity, as 612 00:39:32,756 --> 00:39:36,716 Speaker 1: if they had all been infected by the same contagious idea. 613 00:39:37,756 --> 00:39:41,476 Speaker 1: Jonathan Skinner, an economist at Dartmouth University who's one of 614 00:39:41,476 --> 00:39:44,796 Speaker 1: the heirs to Weinburg's work, said, it's a birds of 615 00:39:44,796 --> 00:39:46,956 Speaker 1: a feather flock together puzzle. 616 00:39:47,436 --> 00:39:51,476 Speaker 5: Like, okay, doctors have different opinions, like people develop opinions 617 00:39:51,756 --> 00:39:55,556 Speaker 5: about what works. But the question is, what is it 618 00:39:55,636 --> 00:39:59,076 Speaker 5: about an area that causes some people to practice in 619 00:39:59,116 --> 00:40:02,836 Speaker 5: one way on average and something that's kind of in 620 00:40:02,916 --> 00:40:03,596 Speaker 5: the water. 621 00:40:16,556 --> 00:40:23,276 Speaker 1: Six small area variation has subsequently become something of an 622 00:40:23,316 --> 00:40:28,396 Speaker 1: obsession for medical researchers. Books are written about it, scholars 623 00:40:28,556 --> 00:40:32,236 Speaker 1: spend their days studying it. But what's fascinating is how 624 00:40:32,276 --> 00:40:36,796 Speaker 1: the same inexplicable patterns of variation turn up outside the 625 00:40:36,836 --> 00:40:40,036 Speaker 1: world of medical care. Let me give you an example. 626 00:40:41,076 --> 00:40:44,476 Speaker 1: The state of California keeps the public database of what 627 00:40:44,596 --> 00:40:47,636 Speaker 1: percentage of seventh graders at any middle school in the 628 00:40:47,676 --> 00:40:52,916 Speaker 1: state are up to date with their recommended vaccines chicken pox, measles, 629 00:40:52,996 --> 00:40:56,316 Speaker 1: mom's rebella, polio, and so on. If you give the 630 00:40:56,356 --> 00:41:00,156 Speaker 1: list and it's a long list. A cursory glance, it 631 00:41:00,236 --> 00:41:04,636 Speaker 1: seems pretty straightforward. The overwhelming number of public school kids 632 00:41:04,636 --> 00:41:08,356 Speaker 1: in California have received all their shots. So what about 633 00:41:08,436 --> 00:41:12,756 Speaker 1: private school kids. Private schools tend to be smaller and corkier. 634 00:41:13,196 --> 00:41:16,476 Speaker 1: Could there be more variation there? Let's take a look. 635 00:41:17,116 --> 00:41:20,796 Speaker 1: Here are vaccination rates chosen at random from a selection 636 00:41:20,916 --> 00:41:24,956 Speaker 1: of private elementary schools in Contra Costa County east of 637 00:41:24,996 --> 00:41:29,716 Speaker 1: San Francisco. Saint John the Baptist one hundred percent, El 638 00:41:29,836 --> 00:41:35,196 Speaker 1: Sebrante Christian School one hundred percent, Contracosta Jewish Day School 639 00:41:35,636 --> 00:41:39,276 Speaker 1: one hundred percent. The list goes on. There are a 640 00:41:39,356 --> 00:41:42,916 Speaker 1: lot of private elementary schools in Contracosta County, and the 641 00:41:42,956 --> 00:41:45,876 Speaker 1: parents who live there seem pretty intent on protecting their 642 00:41:45,916 --> 00:41:51,316 Speaker 1: children from infectious diseases. Saint Perpetua one hundred percent, Saint 643 00:41:51,356 --> 00:41:55,716 Speaker 1: Catherine of Siena one hundred percent. But wait, there's one 644 00:41:55,756 --> 00:42:01,676 Speaker 1: school that's very different, East Bay Waldorf forty two percent. 645 00:42:02,836 --> 00:42:07,156 Speaker 1: Forty two percent. Is this a fluke, a chance deviation 646 00:42:07,356 --> 00:42:10,756 Speaker 1: from a consistent pattern. Let's take a look at private 647 00:42:10,796 --> 00:42:14,756 Speaker 1: schools in El Dorado County, just down the list alphabetically 648 00:42:15,116 --> 00:42:20,436 Speaker 1: from Contra Costa g HS Academy ninety four percent, Holy 649 00:42:20,516 --> 00:42:25,156 Speaker 1: Trinity School one hundred percent, and then wait for it, 650 00:42:26,276 --> 00:42:32,636 Speaker 1: Cedar Springs Waldorf thirty six percent. Estra Los Angeles. Most 651 00:42:32,636 --> 00:42:36,076 Speaker 1: middle schools, like their counterparts around the state are up 652 00:42:36,076 --> 00:42:38,996 Speaker 1: in the nineties or at one hundred percent, but once again, 653 00:42:39,236 --> 00:42:42,196 Speaker 1: there is an exception far on the west side of 654 00:42:42,196 --> 00:42:47,556 Speaker 1: the city, in the exclusive neighborhood of Pacific Palisades West 655 00:42:47,556 --> 00:42:54,276 Speaker 1: Side Waldorf twenty two percent. If you've never heard of 656 00:42:54,276 --> 00:42:58,076 Speaker 1: Waldorf schools, they're a movement started by the Austrian educator 657 00:42:58,196 --> 00:43:02,716 Speaker 1: Rudolf Steiner in the early twentieth century. Waldorf schools are 658 00:43:02,796 --> 00:43:07,516 Speaker 1: small and expensive and focus on holistic learning, seeking to 659 00:43:07,596 --> 00:43:12,356 Speaker 1: develop the creativity and imagination of their students. There are 660 00:43:12,396 --> 00:43:16,516 Speaker 1: several thousand Waldorff schools around the world, mostly kindergartens and 661 00:43:16,596 --> 00:43:21,156 Speaker 1: elementary schools, and about two dozen in California, and almost 662 00:43:21,236 --> 00:43:25,836 Speaker 1: without exception, the lowest vaccination rates in any California town 663 00:43:26,036 --> 00:43:29,756 Speaker 1: that has a Waldorf school are at the Waldorf school. 664 00:43:30,676 --> 00:43:33,716 Speaker 1: There are other schools with unvaccinateed rates as highest Waldorf, 665 00:43:33,916 --> 00:43:38,316 Speaker 1: but they're rare. Here is Sonoma County Saint Vincent de 666 00:43:38,396 --> 00:43:42,596 Speaker 1: Paul Elementary School one hundred percent, Rincon Valley Christian one 667 00:43:42,636 --> 00:43:46,756 Speaker 1: hundred percent, Sonoma Country Day School ninety four percent, Saint 668 00:43:46,756 --> 00:43:51,316 Speaker 1: Eugene Cathedral School ninety seven percent, Saint Rose one hundred percent, 669 00:43:51,996 --> 00:43:59,076 Speaker 1: Summerfield Waldorff School twenty four percent. California had two measles 670 00:43:59,116 --> 00:44:01,476 Speaker 1: outbreaks in the mid twenty tens. 671 00:44:02,116 --> 00:44:05,516 Speaker 4: Right now there are nine confirmed cases of the measles 672 00:44:05,556 --> 00:44:09,076 Speaker 4: which are tied to Disneyland or Disney's California. 673 00:44:09,116 --> 00:44:12,276 Speaker 3: As health officials try and contain the virus, parents are 674 00:44:12,276 --> 00:44:14,116 Speaker 3: being urged to vaccinate their children. 675 00:44:16,156 --> 00:44:20,476 Speaker 1: The outbreaks led many to say that California was suffering 676 00:44:20,516 --> 00:44:24,756 Speaker 1: from a problem with vaccine skepticism. But that's wrong. Look 677 00:44:24,756 --> 00:44:28,516 Speaker 1: again at those elementary schools with one hundred percent vaccination rates. 678 00:44:28,876 --> 00:44:33,076 Speaker 1: It's actually small pockets of people within the state, such 679 00:44:33,076 --> 00:44:34,876 Speaker 1: as the parents who sent their kids to a very 680 00:44:34,876 --> 00:44:38,356 Speaker 1: specific brand of elementary school, who have a vaccine problem. 681 00:44:38,996 --> 00:44:43,996 Speaker 1: John Wenberg would recognize the pattern in an instant vaccine 682 00:44:43,996 --> 00:44:49,596 Speaker 1: skepticism is small area of variation. This is the first 683 00:44:49,676 --> 00:44:54,396 Speaker 1: lesson of social epidemics. When we look at a contagious event, 684 00:44:54,796 --> 00:44:58,556 Speaker 1: we assume that there is something fundamentally wild and unruly 685 00:44:58,636 --> 00:45:01,996 Speaker 1: about the path it takes. But there is nothing wild 686 00:45:02,196 --> 00:45:06,276 Speaker 1: and unruly about the La Bank robbery epidemic, or the 687 00:45:06,316 --> 00:45:10,316 Speaker 1: patterns of medical practice in Waterbury versus Stowe, or the 688 00:45:10,476 --> 00:45:15,596 Speaker 1: ideas of Waldorf parents. Whatever contagious belief unites the people 689 00:45:15,716 --> 00:45:19,116 Speaker 1: in those instances has the discipline to stop at the 690 00:45:19,196 --> 00:45:22,636 Speaker 1: voters of their community. There must be a set of 691 00:45:22,716 --> 00:45:29,236 Speaker 1: rules buried somewhere below the surface, which brings us to 692 00:45:29,276 --> 00:45:37,356 Speaker 1: puzzle number two. Thanks for listening to that preview of 693 00:45:37,356 --> 00:45:39,916 Speaker 1: my new book, Revenge of the Tipping Point. You can 694 00:45:39,956 --> 00:45:44,676 Speaker 1: hear the rest on audible, Apple Books, Barnes and Noble, Spotify, Pushkin, 695 00:45:44,796 --> 00:45:49,076 Speaker 1: dot FM, or wherever you like to listen. Coming up 696 00:45:49,116 --> 00:45:52,636 Speaker 1: next on Revisionist History, two narrative episodes about my favorite 697 00:45:52,636 --> 00:45:55,516 Speaker 1: trial of all time, and a deep dive on broken windows, 698 00:45:55,916 --> 00:45:58,436 Speaker 1: a theory that I helped popularize in The Tipping Point? 699 00:45:59,156 --> 00:46:02,036 Speaker 1: Did I get it right? And what's changed twenty five 700 00:46:02,076 --> 00:46:02,596 Speaker 1: years later? 701 00:46:03,356 --> 00:46:04,676 Speaker 3: And I would go around and I would talk to 702 00:46:04,756 --> 00:46:06,676 Speaker 3: people in New York City, and the. 703 00:46:06,876 --> 00:46:10,196 Speaker 5: Liberal people, progressive people say oh, well, you know, we've 704 00:46:10,196 --> 00:46:11,516 Speaker 5: had this miracle in New York. 705 00:46:11,556 --> 00:46:13,836 Speaker 3: And some people would say, oh yeah, Malcolm Gladwell's idea. 706 00:46:13,876 --> 00:46:15,196 Speaker 3: Broken Windows. 707 00:46:17,676 --> 00:46:21,356 Speaker 1: Revision's history is produced by Nina Bird, Lawrence, Lucy Sullivan, 708 00:46:21,636 --> 00:46:25,196 Speaker 1: and Ben ad F. Haffrey. Our editor is Karen Chakerji, 709 00:46:25,556 --> 00:46:30,156 Speaker 1: and our executive producer is Jacob Smith. Special thanks to 710 00:46:30,236 --> 00:46:33,916 Speaker 1: Sarah Nix. The Revenge of the Tipping Point audiobook was 711 00:46:33,956 --> 00:46:37,876 Speaker 1: executive produced by Kerry Colan, directed by Alexandra Garreton with 712 00:46:37,916 --> 00:46:41,596 Speaker 1: help from Louis Mitchell, Engineered by Nina Bird Lawrence, guitar 713 00:46:41,716 --> 00:46:45,596 Speaker 1: by Ged Corbin. It was produced by Alexandra Garreton and 714 00:46:45,676 --> 00:46:49,196 Speaker 1: Louis Mitchell. Nicole op den Bosch is Pushkin's VP of 715 00:46:49,196 --> 00:46:53,516 Speaker 1: Operations and Publishing. Special thanks to Jasmine Faustino and of 716 00:46:53,556 --> 00:46:58,276 Speaker 1: course el Hefe Greta. Come, I'm Malcolm Popple