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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at

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Speaker 2: the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak

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Speaker 2: anchors all around the world, and straight ahead on the

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Speaker 2: program the upcoming May Jobs report in the US how

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Speaker 2: that could impact FED policy moving forward. I'm Tom Busby

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Speaker 2: in New York.

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Speaker 3: I'm Caroline Hedge in London, where we're asking if the

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Speaker 3: ECB can help Europe sees its golden opportunity.

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Speaker 4: I'm Dot Christner looking ahead to trade data this week

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Speaker 4: from Vietnam.

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Speaker 1: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: eleven three Yeero, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC,

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Speaker 5: Good day to you.

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Speaker 2: I'm Tom Busby, and we begin today's program with a

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Speaker 2: look ahead to the May Jobs Report. Non farm payroll

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Speaker 2: numbers for May out on Friday eight thirty am. Wall

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Speaker 2: Street Time Now for more on how those numbers may

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Speaker 2: impact the FED policy moving forward. And the state of

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Speaker 2: the US labor market and the economy. We're joined by

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Speaker 2: Stuart paul, Us, economist with Bloomberg Economics. Stuart, thank you

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Speaker 2: for being here again. Now, when you look at the

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Speaker 2: impact of the Trump tariffs, the DOGE cuts, lower corporate profits,

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Speaker 2: a shrinking US economy, are we starting to see cracks

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Speaker 2: in the labor market? It was robust for years.

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Speaker 6: I think we're just starting to see material cracks, and

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Speaker 6: we're starting to see the cracks that have been just

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Speaker 6: minuscule starting to widen. I think that the first labor

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Speaker 6: market data print that we're going to get next week

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Speaker 6: or in the coming week is going to be the

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Speaker 6: number of job openings available in April, and I think

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Speaker 6: the number of job openings declined all being modestly, just

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Speaker 6: by about sixty thousand, but that's going to be enough

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Speaker 6: for the number of workers available, the number of unemployed

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Speaker 6: workers to exceed the number of job openings for the

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Speaker 6: first time since the pandemic. So that's the first sign

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Speaker 6: I think that will really matter for the FED that

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Speaker 6: there is material slack in the labor market. And then

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Speaker 6: as we get to the jobs report on Friday, I

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Speaker 6: think we're going to see a materially slower pace of hiring.

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Speaker 6: We're estimating just ninety thousand jobs we're added in May.

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Speaker 6: That's a pretty dramatic slowdown from one hundred and seventy

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Speaker 6: seven thousand jobs added in April. And it's such a

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Speaker 6: slow pace that it does not keep up with labor

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Speaker 6: force or population growth. So we're expecting to see an

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Speaker 6: uptick in the unemployment rate. It's still going to be

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Speaker 6: low at four point three percent, but moving in the

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Speaker 6: wrong direction for the FED.

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Speaker 2: That is a big change. Under one hundred thousand ads

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Speaker 2: is a lot fewer than we saw even a week ago.

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Speaker 2: Economist who were predicting what has changed in that time.

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Speaker 6: The thing that we're seeing in the data when we

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Speaker 6: look at high frequency data is that there were relatively

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Speaker 6: few people added in the leisure and hospitality industry. And

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Speaker 6: going back to your initial point, some of this is

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Speaker 6: downstream from policy that's coming out of the West Wing.

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Speaker 6: One of the reasons we think that there were fewer

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Speaker 6: people added in leisure and hospitality, food service, and accommodation,

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Speaker 6: for example, is because there's less travel from abroad, and

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Speaker 6: part of that is retaliation from some of our trading

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Speaker 6: partners and potential travelers who are canceling their trips in

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Speaker 6: the spring and early summer travel season.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and not just Canadians, European South Americans. We're seeing

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Speaker 2: it from all over, big, big decrease in travel.

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Speaker 5: All right.

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Speaker 2: So now the latest data that we saw also on

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Speaker 2: jobless claims, are you seeing a pattern there? It held

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Speaker 2: pretty steady for most of the president's second term, but

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Speaker 2: I think now we're starting to see things creep up

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Speaker 2: for it also, long term unemployed. That's a big that's

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Speaker 2: exactly right.

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Speaker 6: For a long time, it was one of the easiest

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Speaker 6: data prints to forecast initial jobless claims. Two hundred and

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Speaker 6: twenty thousand a month, no big deal. You wouldn't even

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Speaker 6: have to look, we wouldn't have to think very hard

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Speaker 6: about what to expect. But we did see a pretty

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Speaker 6: swift jump to two hundred and forty thousand in the

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Speaker 6: previous week. I think the thing that's more important, however,

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Speaker 6: is the steady rise in continuing claims as workers who

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Speaker 6: are looking for new employment find it more difficult to

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Speaker 6: get job offers. And I think that a part of

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Speaker 6: that is that businesses remain pretty tentative about increasing headcount

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Speaker 6: in a period of economic policy uncertainty.

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Speaker 2: And one of the data points we got last week

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Speaker 2: was corporate profits in this first quarter, and if they're

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Speaker 2: not making as much money, they're simply just not going

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Speaker 2: to hire more people, are they.

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Speaker 6: That's right, with less profits going to see slower expansion plans.

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Speaker 6: Slower expansion plans mean less hiring, and to your point,

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Speaker 6: that's going to result in widening cracks in the labor market.

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Speaker 2: And we've seen a couple of big layoffs announced Microsoft

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Speaker 2: sixty five hundred workers, three percent of its workforce, match

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Speaker 2: dot com. I mean, these are very different kinds of

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Speaker 2: companies thirteen percent of its staff Intel that's a big

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Speaker 2: twenty percent. They're planning, not all at once. It's going

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Speaker 2: to be gradual. A lot of this is attrition, but

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Speaker 2: you added up that's a lot of people who won't

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Speaker 2: be getting paychecks.

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Speaker 6: That's right. I think that the name of the game, though,

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Speaker 6: is whether this is going to be end mass layoffs

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Speaker 6: or head count reduction through attrition. The latter is of

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Speaker 6: course going to be less shocking, less significant. It's going

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Speaker 6: to result in a less material disruption to growth. If

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Speaker 6: we end up seeing swift layoffs, that could be enough

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Speaker 6: for the FED to resume rate cuts right now. Given

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Speaker 6: the outlook for inflation, we think that the FED is

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Speaker 6: going to remain on hold until the fourth quarter, but

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Speaker 6: we do expect the FED to resume cuts because of

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Speaker 6: that labor market.

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Speaker 2: The main jobs report out this Friday ahead of Wall

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Speaker 2: Street's opening bell our. Thanks to Stuart paul Us, economist

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Speaker 2: with Bloomberg Economics, we turned out to Apple, the three

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Speaker 2: trillion dollar tech giant that's facing some unprecedented challenges, including

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Speaker 2: being way behind rivals in AI, pressure from the White

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Speaker 2: House about where it makes the iPhone, and seeing open

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Speaker 2: Ai team up with its legendary former design guru on

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Speaker 2: a family of devices with AI at their core. How

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Speaker 2: is Apple responding? What does this mean for Tim cook Well?

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Speaker 2: For more, we're joined by Mark German, Bloomberg News Managing

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Speaker 2: editor for Global Consumer Tech.

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Speaker 5: Mark.

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Speaker 2: That was a blockbuster announcement that moved by chat gpt

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Speaker 2: A maker open Ai acquiring the AI device maker co

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Speaker 2: founded by Johnny Ive, the man who designed the iPhone,

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Speaker 2: the iPad, the iPod and other devices. What does Johnny

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Speaker 2: Ive mean him and his company and what does this

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Speaker 2: mean for Apple.

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Speaker 7: It's pretty remarkable, isn't it. This is open AI betting

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Speaker 7: that chat, GPT and artificial intelligence and voice interaction are

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Speaker 7: again the future of computing and that now is the

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Speaker 7: time to productize it. An app is quite good, right,

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Speaker 7: an online service, you know, that's meaningful, But having your

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Speaker 7: own hardware, your own products that people could buy to

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Speaker 7: leverage this technology is critical in order to take the

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Speaker 7: next step. You know. I look at the current state

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Speaker 7: of generative AI as pretty much similar to the touchscreen

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Speaker 7: twenty years ago if you really think about it, The iPhone,

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Speaker 7: the iPad, smartphones and tablets from other manufacturers, those are

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Speaker 7: basically productizations of a touchscreen. Right now, what open ai

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Speaker 7: is working on with Johnny Ive is the productization of

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Speaker 7: generative AI. My belief is that they're eventually going to

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Speaker 7: roll out a necklace, right, a necklace with microphones, speakers,

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Speaker 7: cameras and other technology so you can go about your

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Speaker 7: day and interact with chat, GPT and other AI features

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Speaker 7: and so voice saying that's going to be the future

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Speaker 7: voice activated always on AI companion that you wear around

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Speaker 7: your neck or other parts of your body to interact

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Speaker 7: with and use throughout your day. Now they see it

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Speaker 7: as secondary to a phone, right, You're still going to

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Speaker 7: use a phone to watch video, still going to use

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Speaker 7: a phone to play games, maybe still use a phone

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Speaker 7: to make well phone calls, but forgetting a lot of

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Speaker 7: other stuff done, whether that's asking questions, whether that's sending messages,

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Speaker 7: whether that's booking a movie or doing a restaurant reservation

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Speaker 7: or looking up something. Throughout your day, You're gonna do

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Speaker 7: that with that pendant around your neck. And I think

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Speaker 7: they see that as the future and the phone eventually

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Speaker 7: transitioning into that type of product.

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Speaker 2: And now they have taught by day I mean Sam

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Speaker 2: Altman of open Ai and Johnny Ive a reference to

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Speaker 2: a family of devices, so not just a necklace. Could

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Speaker 2: they put out their own phone as well.

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Speaker 7: I think they're going to start with the necklace, and

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Speaker 7: then at some point you're going to have a home

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Speaker 7: companion device, so something that you would put on your

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Speaker 7: desk to use alongside your iPad or your laptop or

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Speaker 7: what have you, right, something more ambient than that's just

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Speaker 7: around your neck, something that as you walk throughout your

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Speaker 7: home you would have access to. And eventually maybe there

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Speaker 7: will be a pocketable device, maybe there will be a

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Speaker 7: product with a screen, but I think that's that's further off,

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Speaker 7: and I doubt they've done any conceptualization on that to

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Speaker 7: this point.

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Speaker 2: So it's a game changer. It's not glasses, it's not

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Speaker 2: a phone. This is a whole new category.

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Speaker 7: It's a whole new category, a whole new type of product.

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Speaker 7: And this is their bet. I mean, that's what Johnny

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Speaker 7: I've is known for right new major product categories and

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Speaker 7: having the right people, having the right design sensibilities for it.

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Speaker 7: And so he's the perfect person. Well he's probably the

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Speaker 7: only person who could successfully. You know, other people have

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Speaker 7: tried it, but they haven't been successful. But if you're

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Speaker 7: betting on someone who could do this successfully, it is I've.

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Speaker 2: And are you what kind of timeline do you see

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Speaker 2: for this device?

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Speaker 7: What they're telling me is they're going to introduce the

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Speaker 7: products some point next year. I wouldn't anticipate, given the

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Speaker 7: economics of manufacturing, given the time it takes to produce

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Speaker 7: these things, given the fit and finish that I've is

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Speaker 7: known for, Given basically where we're at with chat Shept

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Speaker 7: and the quality, probably one another year in the oven

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Speaker 7: to make sure it's up to stuff for a hardware

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Speaker 7: product that people are going to pay, you know, hard

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Speaker 7: cash for I wouldn't anticipate a release before twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: Okay, all right, so we have we have some time

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Speaker 2: until then. Let's talk about some of the other challenges

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Speaker 2: facing Apple, like the twenty five percent tariff threats from

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Speaker 2: President Trump on iPhones sold in the US but made overseas.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if Trump is able to follow through, what

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Speaker 2: does that mean for iPhone buyers and for Apple?

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Speaker 7: Well, it's a big if that if this ends up happening, Right,

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Speaker 7: we've already seen the news of global organizations deeming the

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Speaker 7: tariffs illegal. We know that Trump, Tim Cook and other

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Speaker 7: CEOs of smartphone manufacturers are going to have conversations. We

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Speaker 7: know that Trump in the past has shown a willingness

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Speaker 7: or even a strong willingness to make concessions for certain

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Speaker 7: executives and for certain companies. So let's assume, right that

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Speaker 7: this does happen, right, because I'm not sure it will,

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Speaker 7: but let's assume this does happen. Twenty five percent a

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Speaker 7: small price to pay for Apple when they were looking

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Speaker 7: at north one hundred percent tariffs on the original setup

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Speaker 7: related to the Chinese tariffs. But I don't think that

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Speaker 7: threatening a twenty five percent tariff is going to accomplish

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Speaker 7: much for Trump. His goal is to force them via

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Speaker 7: the threat of a tariff, to move production to the US.

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Speaker 7: First of all, the time it would take to move

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Speaker 7: production to the US is a decade long, so it's

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Speaker 7: not going to happen even in the course of the

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Speaker 7: rest of Trump's three years in office, right, right, So

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Speaker 7: that's one two tariff, that cost increase that's less than

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Speaker 7: the cost increase or the operational resources necessary that would

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Speaker 7: be incurred for a move to the US. So the

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Speaker 7: twenty five percent doesn't accomplish what Trump wants. It's basically

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Speaker 7: just a penalty on Apple for not being able to

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Speaker 7: move to the US. And if he wants to do

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Speaker 7: a penalty on Apple for not being able to move

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Speaker 7: to the US, that's up to him. That's his probative.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 7: Apple probably won't love it. The consumers are gonna have

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Speaker 7: to pay more, aren't going to love it. But he's

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Speaker 7: going to do whatever he wants it. But it's simply

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Speaker 7: not going to accomplish the goal he has in place.

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Speaker 2: Our thanks to Mark German, Bloomberg News Managing editor for

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Speaker 2: Global Consumer Tech. Coming up on Bloomberg day Break, weekend,

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Speaker 2: we'll look at whether the ECB can help europe seas

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Speaker 2: It's golden opportunity. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg day Break weekend, our global look ahead

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Speaker 2: at the top stories for investors in the coming week.

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Speaker 2: I'm Tom Busby in New York. Up later in our program,

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Speaker 2: we look ahead to trade data this week from Vietnam.

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Speaker 2: But first, policymakers in Frankfurt choosing whether to cut, hike

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Speaker 2: or maintain interest rates. As the European Central Bank undergoes

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Speaker 2: its quarterly economic review this week, how will the Governing

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Speaker 2: Council respond to the moving targets of inflation and macroeconomic circumstances. Well,

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Speaker 2: for more, let's get to London and bring in Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Daybreak europe Banker Caroline Hepgar, Tom, it's.

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Speaker 3: Not really shaping up to be a relaxing European summer

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Speaker 3: for Christine Lagarde and her colleagues at the European Central Bank.

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Speaker 3: If a widely expected eighth successive twenty five basis point

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Speaker 3: rate cut is passed in the coming days, it will

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Speaker 3: mean that the deposit rate will have been cut in

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Speaker 3: half over the past year to two percent. That's as

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Speaker 3: factions of the ECB's governing Council disagree on how low

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Speaker 3: is too low when it comes to borrowing costs, and

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Speaker 3: with growing pressure on EU US trade negotiations to consider

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Speaker 3: and uncertainty about US tariffs, ECB officials have a lot

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Speaker 3: to consider. If they play their cards rise, Europe could

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Speaker 3: be well placed to take advantage of an opportunity presented

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Speaker 3: by the current geopolitical context. That's according to Karen Ward,

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Speaker 3: who is EMEA Chief market Strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.

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Speaker 8: The US has had the world's capital flowing to it

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Speaker 8: for the last fifteen years in abundance. It's been a

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Speaker 8: huge part of why they've been able to grow, while

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Speaker 8: their companies have been able to grow, why governments have

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Speaker 8: been spending a lot more in the US than we

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Speaker 8: have here in Europe. So are there are big upsides

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Speaker 8: to having that abundance of capital?

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Speaker 9: I mean a lot will depend on the USU urref negotiations,

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Speaker 9: which we'll talk about, say, but it is now the

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Speaker 9: moment to be invested in European markets Or are there

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Speaker 9: too many question marks?

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Speaker 8: I've been saying since we came into the year, we

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Speaker 8: had a situation where the US was believed to be

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Speaker 8: exceptional and Donald Trump was going to further exacerbate that exceptionalism.

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Speaker 8: Expectations on the US were too high, expectations on Europe

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Speaker 8: were too low.

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Speaker 3: That was JP Morgan Asset Management's Karen Ward speaking to

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Farcy in Laqwab. So, how can Europe's central bankers

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Speaker 3: prime the region to grasp hold of what could be

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Speaker 3: a fleeting chance to access more of the world's capital

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Speaker 3: And how important a role will interest rates play in

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Speaker 3: the equation? It's something I've been discussing with Bloomberg Economics

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Speaker 3: is senior Euro Area economist David Powell.

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Speaker 5: Well, if we look at what most of the members

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Speaker 5: of the Government Council have said recently, they all think

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Speaker 5: that the impact of the US tariffs and the year

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Speaker 5: area is going to be disinflation areas. It's going to

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Speaker 5: lower inflation pressures as cheaper goods come in from China

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Speaker 5: and weaker demand ways on the economy. So as a whole,

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Speaker 5: they're pretty much all in favor of a cut. We

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Speaker 5: don't have complete agreement on that. We never knew. We've

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Speaker 5: already heard from the ECB's most hawkish member, the governor

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Speaker 5: of the Central Bank of Austria that he's not in

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Speaker 5: favor of a cut this month, but he's really an outlier.

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Speaker 5: The majority of the people will go ahead and vote

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Speaker 5: for that cut.

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Speaker 3: And so we're also do to receive some Eurozone economic

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Speaker 3: data in the next few days. How do you think

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Speaker 3: that is going to affect decision making?

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Speaker 5: Well, really, what the ECB is doing right now, it's

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Speaker 5: kind of looking forward to what the impact of these

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Speaker 5: tariffs will be. When we look at the latest economic

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Speaker 5: data coming out of the year Area, in particular to

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Speaker 5: the survey components that relate to exports, they're all holding

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Speaker 5: up pretty well. And basically what I think most people

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Speaker 5: think is happening is that American businesses and consumers are

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Speaker 5: front running this ninety day pause, so they're wanting to

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Speaker 5: bring all these exports into America before that ninety day

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Speaker 5: pause ends in July and they potentially face higher tariffs.

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Speaker 5: So things look good now the data is generally holding up,

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Speaker 5: but the ECB is going to be more forward looking

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Speaker 5: and be thinking about, well, what happens when this resilience

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Speaker 5: comes to an end. That's going to be the focus

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Speaker 5: of their discussion.

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Speaker 3: I mean, there's even more uncertainty about the US tariffs

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Speaker 3: than ever before now given the recent US court decision.

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Speaker 3: But there remains that question for the Central Bank about

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Speaker 3: whether it will end up having to step in at

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Speaker 3: some point, let's say, if talks fall through, or if

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Speaker 3: at some point the tariffs from the US actually do

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Speaker 3: hit Europe even more severely, about whether the Central Bank

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Speaker 3: will then have a bigger role. I'll have to step

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Speaker 3: in even.

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Speaker 5: If you put US teriff societe. The Central Bank is

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Speaker 5: in an environment where it can reduce borrowing costs. When

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Speaker 5: you look at the latest data on cost pressure, it's

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Speaker 5: all coming down in the un area. In particular, the

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Speaker 5: ECB's official time series and negotiated wages slowed very sharply

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Speaker 5: in the first quarter. They also have an experimental wage

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Speaker 5: tracker which shows wages remaining more subdued later in the year.

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Speaker 5: So the inflation problem that the area was facing over

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Speaker 5: the past couple of years is really no longer a problems.

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Speaker 5: Even the terriff issue aside, that's not a huge problem

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Speaker 5: right now. They can cut and then looking beyond that

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Speaker 5: is the impact of the tariffs, and that could determine

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Speaker 5: more easing later in the year, but in all likelihood

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Speaker 5: they're going to want to see, given all the uncertainty,

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Speaker 5: what actually happens, so they're probably not going to rush

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Speaker 5: cut meeting after meeting. They probably do something more like

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Speaker 5: moving at a quarterly pace to wait and see what

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Speaker 5: actually comes out of the US given all that uncertainty

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Speaker 5: that you mentioned.

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Speaker 3: In terms of other things that may affect the euzone

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Speaker 3: again as a kind of consequence of the tariffs China,

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Speaker 3: and you know there's been a worry about perhaps more

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Speaker 3: different disinflation being sported from China into the EU. Is

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Speaker 3: that amongst the considerations at the.

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Speaker 5: Moment definitely will be There are basically three big ways

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Speaker 5: in which this terriff issue is going to impact your

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Speaker 5: area inflation to the downside. That is, one, cheaper goods

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Speaker 5: which are no longer going to America likely to come

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Speaker 5: to the Euro Area wider EU from China. We have

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Speaker 5: estimated that could take about zero point four percentage point

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Speaker 5: off inflation each year. On top of that, oil prices

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Speaker 5: are down and that's also another disinflationary force, and also

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Speaker 5: just demand will be weaker so as exports in all

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Speaker 5: likelihoods slow in the second half of the year, there

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Speaker 5: won't be as much there won't be as much demand

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Speaker 5: for labor or for products from the Euro Area from abroad.

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Speaker 3: How close do you think we are then, and how

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Speaker 3: close to economists think we are to the neutral rate

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Speaker 3: in Europe?

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Speaker 5: Well, we're pretty close to that. Most people say it's

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Speaker 5: about two percent, and that's where we're going to be

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Speaker 5: after this cut in June. However, we already know that

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Speaker 5: the ECB is focusing much less on this concept of

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Speaker 5: the neutral rate than they previously were. At the last

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Speaker 5: press conference in April, the ECB removed from its statement

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Speaker 5: this longstanding state incentence that have been focused on about

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Speaker 5: how restrictive monetary policy is, and the Guard elaborated on

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Speaker 5: that in the press conference, saying the neutral policy rate

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Speaker 5: is a concept for a world without shocks, and it's

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Speaker 5: certainly not the world we are living in.

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Speaker 3: The thing is the ECB President Christina Guard sees an

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Speaker 3: opportunity in those shocks, in the sense that an opportunity

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Speaker 3: for the Euro maybe to become a stronger reserve currency

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Speaker 3: versus the dollar. Is the scope maybe for policy makers

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Speaker 3: also to be thinking about the Euro. Obviously it's not

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Speaker 3: in their mandate, but do you think that they'll be

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Speaker 3: thinking about this? What do you make of the ECB

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Speaker 3: President Christina Guard's comments.

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Speaker 5: The Euro has been around for new thirty years now,

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Speaker 5: and almost that entire time, policymakers in Europe, whether they

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Speaker 5: be heads of stage or people at the European Union

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Speaker 5: or people at the European Central Bank, have been playing

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Speaker 5: up that the Euro could be a secondary reserve currency,

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Speaker 5: displacing some demand for the US dollar as a reserve currency. However,

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Speaker 5: it's never really taken on that role because it has

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Speaker 5: been plagued by number of problems throughout the years. Obviously,

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Speaker 5: there was the Euro crisis, which scared a lot of

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Speaker 5: international investors away, and some of those problems that arose

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Speaker 5: at that time, the lack of a banking union, the

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Speaker 5: lack of a fiscal union, they persist. And if there

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Speaker 5: were some big problem again, as there inevitably will be,

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Speaker 5: because we know from history that financial crisis pop up

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Speaker 5: from time to time, I think questions still remain about

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Speaker 5: how exactly the Euro would perform in that environment. Although

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Speaker 5: the architecture of the monetary union was strengthened significantly after

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Speaker 5: the last big crisis in twenty twelve, but.

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Speaker 3: It goes the question also of the power the strength

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Speaker 3: of Europe as an economic block, doesn't it, And about

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Speaker 3: economic growth. You know, the strength of the euro would

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Speaker 3: be based on the strength of Europe sort of economically,

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Speaker 3: wouldn't it. That's always a relative game obviously, But how

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Speaker 3: do you think growth is going now for Europe? We've

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Speaker 3: got this kind of more disinflationary environment, a lot of

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Speaker 3: money being rolled out in different countries for more spending

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Speaker 3: on defense and infrastructure. How do you think the ECB

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Speaker 3: is thinking about economic growth in the block?

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Speaker 5: Well, when you take a step back and look at

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Speaker 5: growth in the EU Area since the global financial christ

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Speaker 5: relative to the US, the Urrea has lagged considerably, particularly

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Speaker 5: in the last few years after the ECB began tightening

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Speaker 5: the your area has hardly grown and the US economy

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Speaker 5: has really kind of been then moving forward at full speed.

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Speaker 5: So the Urrea has fallen behind considerably over the last decade.

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Speaker 5: There's a lot of ground to make up, and that's

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Speaker 5: going to come through higher levels of productivity. We had

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Speaker 5: Mario Draghi release of report earlier this year on his

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Speaker 5: recommendations for how the EU Area could achieve that none

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Speaker 5: of those things are very easy to implement. I mean,

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Speaker 5: increasing the rate of growth is a difficult game and

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Speaker 5: there's a lot of work to be done before we

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Speaker 5: see the kind of results that we've seen in America.

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Speaker 3: But on the flip side, does that mean no recession?

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Speaker 7: Then?

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Speaker 3: For Europe? In what is this kind of very volatile

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Speaker 3: trading world right now, very volatile geopolitical world. How do

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Speaker 3: you see Europe currently?

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Speaker 5: Our own forecast as well as those of the ECB,

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Speaker 5: are that the economy will economic growth was slow as

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Speaker 5: a result of this trade war, and it will be

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Speaker 5: a shock, but it's unlikely to be large enough to

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Speaker 5: push the EU area into recession at this stage.

438
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 3: Okay, So then how does the ECB's situation stack up

439
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 3: versus other central banks? Again, we're watching the Federal Reserve closely.

440
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 3: Given that the trade picture in the US markets have

441
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:04,199
Speaker 3: really paused and slowed down the pace at which they

442
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 3: think the Fed's going to cut. How does that influence

443
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:07,120
Speaker 3: the ECB.

444
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: I think you.

445
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 5: Generally put central banks around the world into two categories,

446
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 5: and one only has the Federal Reserve, and they're having

447
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 5: to worry about the impact GDP of the tariffs as

448
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 5: well as on inflation because this will directly increase prices

449
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 5: in the United States and just about every other central

450
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 5: bank in the world is more focused on the impact

451
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 5: on the economy less so on inflation. Of course, there

452
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 5: could be some inflationary pressures if they were retaliatory measures

453
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 5: put in place, but they're really focused on the damage

454
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 5: to the economy. That is particularly for countries with large

455
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 5: trade surpluses that depend upon foreign demand, in particular US

456
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:50,439
Speaker 5: demand to keep their economies going through the external sector

457
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:52,120
Speaker 5: through those exports to America.

458
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:54,879
Speaker 3: Is there anything that we should be thinking about, anything

459
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 3: unusual that you think is going to pop up? I

460
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 3: have to ask this question now because I think so

461
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 3: many things moving so rapidly currently. Is there something that

462
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 3: we should think about in the days ahead, you know,

463
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 3: when it comes to the ECB meeting, maybe that our

464
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 3: audiences doesn't have on their radar.

465
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 5: I think what I'll be looking for. I'm not really

466
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 5: expecting this, but this is something that I'll be looking for.

467
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 5: Is is the ECB looking to take out insurance by

468
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 5: being extra duvish, meaning that do they want to kind

469
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 5: of prepare the market for further easing later in the

470
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 5: year just in case things get much worse? We know

471
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,400
Speaker 5: already that you know, well, essentially, as I mentioned before,

472
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,159
Speaker 5: they will kind of be it neutral after this, but

473
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 5: how much are they going to look forward to further cuts?

474
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 3: My thanks to Bloomberg's David Powell for speaking to me,

475
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 3: and of course we'll have full coverage of the ECB

476
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:46,199
Speaker 3: rate decision from Frankfurt here on Bloomberg Radio. I'm Caroline

477
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 3: Hepgar in London and you can catch us every weekday

478
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 3: morning for Bloomberg Daybreak. You're at beginning at six am

479
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 3: in London. That's one am on Wall Street.

480
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:57,119
Speaker 2: Tom, Thank you, Caroline, and coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak

481
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 2: weekend to look into how Vietnam's economy has been impacted

482
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 2: by tariffs. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. This

483
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 2: is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look ahead at

484
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,640
Speaker 2: the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm

485
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 2: Tom Busby in New York. Vietnam is under the threat

486
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 2: of aggressive tariffs from the Trump administration. The levees on

487
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 2: hold for now pending trade talks, but Vietnam's economy is

488
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 2: still being affected. For a closer look, let's get to

489
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Doug Chrisner host of the Bloomberg Asia podcast.

490
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 4: Tom there is no greater risk for economies in Asia

491
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 4: than US trade policy.

492
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 5: Now.

493
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,360
Speaker 4: The Trump administration has been using the leverage of tariffs

494
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 4: in attempting to negotiate new trade agreements as a way

495
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 4: of helping to reduce America's many trade deficits. Not to

496
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 4: be fair, there is a big question mark now over

497
00:26:56,320 --> 00:27:00,040
Speaker 4: the legality of these levees. In the last week, the

498
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 4: Court of International Trade deemed the tariffs illegal and it

499
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 4: blocked them. Now the Trump administration is appealing this decision

500
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 4: and the case may ultimately be decided by the US

501
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 4: Supreme Court. But before this development, US trading partners were

502
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 4: lining up and many were in the midst of trade

503
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 4: negotiations with the administration as a way of getting tariff relief.

504
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 4: And among the countries at the table Vietnam. In the

505
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:27,240
Speaker 4: coming week we will get trade data for this country,

506
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 4: so we thought it would be a good time to

507
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 4: look at Vietnam's overall economy, the impact that tariffs are having,

508
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:37,120
Speaker 4: as well as the trade relationship between Hanoi and Washington.

509
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 4: I'm joined now by Bloomberg's Katya Dmitrieva. Katya is Asia

510
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 4: economy reporter, She joins us from Hong Kong. Good of

511
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 4: you to make time to chat with me about this. Recently,

512
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 4: I know that Vietnam and the US concluded a second

513
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 4: round of trade negotiations. Do we have a sense of

514
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 4: how well the conversation is progressing well?

515
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 10: About the same sense that we have with any of

516
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 10: the trade talks at this point. We know that Vietnam

517
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 10: has made in fact, it was one of the first

518
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 10: countries to make concessions and offers to the US. So

519
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 10: even before trade negotiations started, they were talking about buying

520
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 10: more Boeing airplanes or trying to find a way to

521
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 10: sort of narrow the trade gap, which of course is

522
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 10: the biggest focus for the Trump administration is that is

523
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 10: that trade deficit that they have with Vietnam, and Vietnam

524
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 10: has its biggest trade surplus with the US. So there

525
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 10: was already this sense that Vietnam was able to sort

526
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 10: of bend over backwards to secure a good bilateral deal

527
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 10: with the US because the economy depends so much on

528
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 10: the States. The most recent negotiations were a bit tricky because,

529
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 10: of course, going into them as they began, Vietnamese officials

530
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 10: we're talking about how Trump's tariffs were seen is unreasonable

531
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 10: and for a kind of relatively small economy like Vietnam,

532
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 10: a forty six percent tariff would be absolutely punishing and

533
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 10: seem to catch leadership off guard. So there hasn't been

534
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 10: a deal yet, like the UK, like China, there has

535
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 10: not been anything announced even temporarily with Vietnam, and of

536
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 10: course we'll have to wait and see how those negotiations continued.

537
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 4: Vietnam has been one of Asia's fastest growing economies. It

538
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 4: was only a few years ago that many on the

539
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 4: equity side that put money to work in Asia referred

540
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 4: to Vietnam as still being a frontier economy. And I

541
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 4: think that the US recognizes Vietnam as a non market economy,

542
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 4: does that necessarily put Vietnam at a disadvantage in these

543
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 4: trade negotiations.

544
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 10: It's definitely coming to the trade negotiations from a position

545
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 10: that's quite different from the EU or China, for example.

546
00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 10: It is a smaller economy. It has left ability to

547
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 10: push back on Trump in the way of seeing, for example,

548
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 10: China pushing back on the US and these talks and

549
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 10: sort of making marking out concessions and getting tariffs moved

550
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 10: down substantially, at least temporarily, so it's a smaller economy,

551
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 10: it has fewer levers, and frankly, it depends a lot

552
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 10: on the US. So about thirty percent of its total

553
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 10: GDP is just US exports or exports to the US.

554
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 10: So it's one of the most among Southeast Asian economies,

555
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 10: but also globally. And so if you're in that position

556
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 10: as a nation, you want to do everything in your

557
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 10: power to try to fix that as soon as possible,

558
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 10: even if it means potentially buying more goods, kind of

559
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 10: asking companies to extend themselves in that way, or buying

560
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 10: things maybe that the country doesn't necessarily need, or making

561
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 10: concessions when it comes to their own trade protectionism.

562
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 4: Many supply chains, as you well know, were reconfigured during

563
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 4: the first Trumpet administration as a way of trying to

564
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 4: reduce exposure to China that seemed to accelerate during the

565
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 4: pandemic Vietnam. I think it's fair to say was a

566
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 4: big beneficiary during that period, and from what I've read,

567
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 4: the country has been under a bit of scrutiny here

568
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 4: to prove that its exports are not actually made in China,

569
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 4: or at least that part of the supply chain is

570
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 4: not strongly linked in a way that kind of mask

571
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 4: the fact that these products essentially are originating in China.

572
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 4: Is that fair?

573
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 10: Yeah, And this is why the trade data next week

574
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 10: will be so interesting. Vietnam has become a hub for companies,

575
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 10: but I think fair to say for Chinese companies in particular.

576
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 10: During the twenty eighteen twenty nineteen trade war, you had

577
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 10: factories all along the supply chain casting around looking for

578
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 10: places to start producing goods that were not in China

579
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 10: that we're not going to be targeted so heavily and

580
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 10: explicitly by the US, which is the biggest customer. So

581
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 10: they went to a number of places, but Vietnam ended

582
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 10: up being a big hub. And so the ties between

583
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 10: the two countries, between China and Vietnam are quite close,

584
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 10: with exchange of goods and materials and people as well workers.

585
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 10: So there was a growing sense in the US that

586
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:30,959
Speaker 10: this kind of relationship would or could start to bypass

587
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 10: those US rules, and in some cases they did.

588
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 7: So.

589
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 10: There was an example of Linoleum flooring that there was

590
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 10: an investigation into in the US and they found that

591
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 10: a lot of the components were actually coming from China.

592
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 10: Because these items have to undergo it's called substantial transformation

593
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 10: in this country in a second country before being shipped out.

594
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 10: You can't just legally, at least in the trade realm,

595
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 10: you can't just ship an item to a second location,

596
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 10: stick a label on it, ship it to the US

597
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 10: and say it's from Vietnam and not China. So there's

598
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 10: sort of a debate about how much of trade is

599
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 10: that is that kind of illegal re routing or transhipment.

600
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 7: I've seen estimates.

601
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:17,960
Speaker 10: Anywhere from five to twenty percent, which is a lot

602
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 10: when you think about the flow of trade, but it's

603
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 10: a very difficult to prove. There are limited ways to

604
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 10: sort of target it, even from an administration level. So

605
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 10: that will form an interesting part of the negotiations because

606
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 10: one thing I've been wondering is how are they going

607
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 10: to address that. Will there be sort of more of

608
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 10: an imperative for Vietnam and Vitamese companies to start investigating

609
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 10: this stuff at the factory level, to supply some sort

610
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 10: of documentation or heavier documentation. That's definitely one question in

611
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 10: these talks that might be a bit different from other countries,

612
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 10: and I think the trade data next week, and in fact,

613
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 10: a lot of the figures we're getting next week, as

614
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 10: you say, said, will provide a look at what's happening

615
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 10: in global commerce. Because we had the Libration Day tariffs,

616
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:11,839
Speaker 10: we had the lifting of the Liberation Day tariffs, we

617
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:16,799
Speaker 10: had re routing across and front loading across Asia. We

618
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 10: had last month double digit trade growth from Vietnam as

619
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 10: well as other Southeast Asian economies. So if that's continuing

620
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 10: to roll through, it's positive for Vietnam's economy, which is

621
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:31,800
Speaker 10: aiming for eight percent growth this year, which is pretty

622
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 10: high target even though it's one of the fastest growing

623
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:37,400
Speaker 10: economies in the world. But can they still do that

624
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 10: with this forty six percent tariff threat hanging over them?

625
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 10: And can they do that when increasing trade and this

626
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 10: over reliance on trade is just going to exacerbate this

627
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:52,399
Speaker 10: issue of the trade deficit from Trump's view.

628
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 4: So recently, Vietnam and France agreed to boost cooperation in

629
00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 4: a couple of areas. I think defense security them. It

630
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 4: kind of goes to the area of technology and cybersecurity,

631
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 4: which you don't necessarily think of when you think of Vietnam. First,

632
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,880
Speaker 4: can we look at how Hanoi is going about finding

633
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 4: new trade relationships given the tension that exists with the

634
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 4: Trump administration.

635
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:19,320
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's interesting.

636
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 10: So Vietnam's leader Tolam recently went on a tour of

637
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:26,799
Speaker 10: Central Asia and Russia, and part of this I think

638
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 10: was aimed at sort of shoring up support diversifying. We

639
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 10: had the Asyon Summit recently in the region, and the

640
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 10: big takeaway from that was countries across the region, from

641
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 10: Cambodia to Vietnam, Malaysia Anddonesia, they need to diversify their sources.

642
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 10: And again, Vietnam is kind of a prime example of this.

643
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 10: It's had such an incredible growth and development story. It's

644
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 10: still a developing economy, but the household incomes and wealth

645
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 10: has the poverty rate has fallen, really mirroring I think

646
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 10: what happened in China during this manufacturing revolution. The question

647
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 10: is now, can the government pivot from that model of

648
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 10: growth to something more a consumer led but also more innovative,

649
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 10: And that's where the technology and the AI comes in.

650
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:23,840
Speaker 10: And the question will be can they do that in

651
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:27,839
Speaker 10: an economy that's still quite controlled and is not necessarily

652
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,320
Speaker 10: one that's you know, when you look at the US,

653
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 10: for example, and the export of services, a lot of

654
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 10: that is in the tech sector. It's software, it's development,

655
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 10: it's ingenuity and development. And the question is can Vietnam

656
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:43,959
Speaker 10: do that under its own government system, which is still

657
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:48,280
Speaker 10: quite closed and still quite controlled top down?

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00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:50,879
Speaker 4: Katya, Before I let you go, I have to ask

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00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 4: about the golf resort that President Trump's real estate company

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00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 4: is intending to build in Vietnam. Can you help me

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00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,760
Speaker 4: understand where things at the moment?

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00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 10: This is such an interesting part of this entire story

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00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:09,839
Speaker 10: because the Trump organization is building a one point five

664
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:12,640
Speaker 10: billion dollar golf resort in the country. It's just outside

665
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 10: of Hanoi, and it's happening at the same time as

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00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 10: these trade negotiations, and the country is desperate to get

667
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 10: a deal with the US, so it's very interesting timing.

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00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:29,319
Speaker 10: And critics have actually pointed out that this process has

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00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 10: been fast tracked in the country. So usually there's a

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00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:36,800
Speaker 10: process in Vietnam for environmental standards, for getting community approval,

671
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 10: and a lot of legal experts have pointed to that

672
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:44,720
Speaker 10: being bypassed or sped through. And this is pretty important

673
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 10: for people who live there because it's a lot of

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00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 10: farmland people, you know, individuals own this land. The fact

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00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 10: that the government could be doing a process or making

676
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 10: this process in a way that they normally wouldn't it

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00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 10: is definitely raising some eyes. There's also, of course, in

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00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 10: ho Chi Minh, there's a skyscraper also part of the

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00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:09,359
Speaker 10: Trump organization that they're trying to build. So there's sort

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00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 10: of this real estate part to this as well, and

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00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:14,359
Speaker 10: of course Trump's connection to all of us.

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00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 4: It's going to be very interesting to watch. Katya. Thank

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00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,399
Speaker 4: you so much for helping us understand more about what's

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00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:22,840
Speaker 4: happening these days in Vietnam as we look ahead to

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00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 4: next week's trade data. Bloomberg's Katya Dmitrieva. Katya is Asia

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00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 4: Economy reporter joining from Hong Kong, and I'm Doug Krisner.

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00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 4: You can catch us weekdays for the Daybreak Asia podcast.

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00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,360
Speaker 4: It's available wherever you get your podcast. Tom.

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00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 2: Thanks Doug, and that does it for this edition of

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at

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00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:45,320
Speaker 2: five am Wall Street Time for the latest on markets

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Speaker 2: overseas and the news you need to start your day.

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00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 2: I'm Tom Busby. Stay with us top stories and global

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Speaker 2: business headlines are coming up right now.

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Speaker 7: S