WEBVTT - Apple Unveils iPhone 15, With Heftier Price

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business. Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, today is the day the data world sees in

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<v Speaker 2>your iPhone.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not like it used to be.

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<v Speaker 4>Maybe it is, I don't know. We'll talk about that

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<v Speaker 4>with our next guests.

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<v Speaker 2>Apple adveiling its iPhone fifteen, along with a hefty year

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<v Speaker 2>price for the top model. The Pro Version's going to

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<v Speaker 2>remain at nine hundred and ninety nine bucks, but the

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<v Speaker 2>Pro Max will now start at one and ninety nine dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>That's up one hundred dollars from last year's version. We

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<v Speaker 2>also saw some new Apple watches with eco friendly materials

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<v Speaker 2>and more Apple shares by the way down two point

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<v Speaker 2>three percent. Mark German is chief Technology correspondent at Bloomberg News.

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<v Speaker 2>He joins us on Zoom from our Los Angeles bureau,

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<v Speaker 2>and we got Ed Ludlow, the co host of Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Technology on Bloomberg Television. He joins us from Cooper Tino

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<v Speaker 2>and I want to start with if you I've been

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<v Speaker 2>to a few of these iPhone unveilings back in my day,

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<v Speaker 2>place three or four of them, and you know they're always,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, exciting events. There's a lot of pop and

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<v Speaker 2>circumstance around them. What's the vibe there today?

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<v Speaker 5>I don't know, Man, the vibe is strong.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know.

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<v Speaker 5>I think this says all of the energy and allures

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<v Speaker 5>every generation event has gone before it. It was packed

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<v Speaker 5>down there, and I'm going to let Mark talk about

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<v Speaker 5>how substantive or not these hardware upgrades are. But the

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<v Speaker 5>intense interest in the Pro and Pro Max was phenomenal. German,

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<v Speaker 5>if you're listening, I had just held both of them

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<v Speaker 5>in my hand, and you were absolutely right on every

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<v Speaker 5>single detail. The titanium sides really jump out at you.

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<v Speaker 5>It's definitely a lighter weight product, right. You can feel

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<v Speaker 5>its durability. And everyone down there in the Steve Jobs

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<v Speaker 5>theater is talking about this a seventeen processor three nanometer tech.

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<v Speaker 5>Everything that you reported basically you were spot on with.

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<v Speaker 5>But I would say, Tim, you know the energy here.

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<v Speaker 5>Tim was taking selfies with all of the attendees. It

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<v Speaker 5>has matched prior events I've been.

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<v Speaker 2>To Okay, that's good to know. Hey Mark Kerman, come

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<v Speaker 2>on in here and just follow up on that. Ed says,

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<v Speaker 2>everything you've reported about these phones was right. No surprises

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<v Speaker 2>for us, any surprises for you.

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<v Speaker 6>Thanks for having me. I mean, the important thing is

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<v Speaker 6>now that the news is out and people get digested

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<v Speaker 6>and people are excited about what these new phones mean,

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<v Speaker 6>both consumers who just want to get the new iPhone

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<v Speaker 6>in their pocket and shareholders who are trying to see

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<v Speaker 6>how these new devices will have an impact on the

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<v Speaker 6>company's stock. I think Apple did what they needed to

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<v Speaker 6>do today. Certainly they drummed up a few things with

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<v Speaker 6>their marketing. Might they put that new fancy A seventeen

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<v Speaker 6>pro name on the A seventeen chip. They talked about

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<v Speaker 6>some of the advancements there, but if you really take

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<v Speaker 6>a step step back, ten percent CPU leap, twenty percent

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<v Speaker 6>GPU leap not entirely significant compared to overhauls to the

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<v Speaker 6>chip in prior years. The titanium is basically the biggest

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<v Speaker 6>introduction they had today. One pretty nifty feature that I

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<v Speaker 6>think wasn't expected ahead of the announcement today is certainly

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<v Speaker 6>the use of a spatial video camera on the back

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<v Speaker 6>of the iPhone fifteen, Pro and Pro Max. I mean

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<v Speaker 6>you can take three D video watch it on the

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<v Speaker 6>Apple Vision Pro next year. Now, this is not going

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<v Speaker 6>to impact most consumers, but it's a niftyqual feature that

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<v Speaker 6>shows the power of these new cameras. You know, if

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<v Speaker 6>Ed is still there, I'm curious on the new colors

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<v Speaker 6>for the Pro versions. What stood out to him?

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, Ed, let's bring you back in here.

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<v Speaker 6>What's your take colors? Yeah, of the Pro models, there's colors.

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<v Speaker 1>Colors.

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<v Speaker 6>Yes, I am curious. Blue blue, You're exactly right.

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<v Speaker 5>No, No, this was my other main takeaway because if

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<v Speaker 5>you put side by side the fifteen, Pro and Pro

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<v Speaker 5>Max with the base version fifteen and fifteen Plus, the

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<v Speaker 5>fifteen and fifteen plus come in these beautiful, vibrant pastel colors, yellows, greens,

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<v Speaker 5>nice if you're into that. I always get a blue

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<v Speaker 5>iPhone for the Celse of Chelsea Football Club. That's just

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<v Speaker 5>I've always been honest about that.

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<v Speaker 4>On air.

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<v Speaker 5>I also use a Samsung. By the way, I'm technology agnostic,

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<v Speaker 5>but the Pro lines come in a much more limited

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<v Speaker 5>color range, and that is very clear mark, especially when

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<v Speaker 5>you're inside the Steve Jobs Theater display room and they're

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<v Speaker 5>all on display side by side. You know, I don't

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<v Speaker 5>know why they went that way.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, certainly it's an interesting dynamic with that new titanium frame.

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<v Speaker 6>But I think that happened here is the titanium allows

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<v Speaker 6>them to try some new things. One of those things

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<v Speaker 6>is not polishing with the color the material, which is

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<v Speaker 6>something you need to do with stainless steel, so they're

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<v Speaker 6>able to have that raw, natural color for one of

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<v Speaker 6>the models. I think the blue personally looks interesting. I

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<v Speaker 6>have the black fourteen Promax right now, so don't think

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<v Speaker 6>I'm gonna get the black again. No gold, which could

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<v Speaker 6>be interesting for some markets in China in particular, gold

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<v Speaker 6>is a very powerful and popular color. Red would have

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<v Speaker 6>been a very popular and powerful color in China, but

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<v Speaker 6>those two colors are elusive for this generation. Maybe they'll

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<v Speaker 6>figure out a way to get next year red and

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<v Speaker 6>gold out there, but certainly color is a big part

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<v Speaker 6>of this iPhone launched the overall appearance. I think the

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<v Speaker 6>periscope camera, the new lens system on the fifteen Promax

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<v Speaker 6>is going to be quite impressive and quite useful. But

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<v Speaker 6>I certainly think that this is they've done enough to

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<v Speaker 6>make this a hot cellar of this fall.

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<v Speaker 7>I've always been a fan of the gold or the

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<v Speaker 7>rose gold.

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<v Speaker 8>But ed Mark was just mentioning earlier to about Apple

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<v Speaker 8>stock price down more than two percent as we had

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<v Speaker 8>closer into the closing bell here. But historically the product

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<v Speaker 8>releases initially just haven't always pushed shares higher. What's your

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<v Speaker 8>sort of view on this for today?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, let's regroup in twenty four hours and look at

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<v Speaker 5>the cell side and invest in notes. But you know,

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<v Speaker 5>go back to twenty eleven, there have been thirteen iPhone events,

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<v Speaker 5>including today's. The stock has fallen on ten out of

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<v Speaker 5>thirteen occasions. In the session on the day that Apple's

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<v Speaker 5>had an iPhone event, the bar is kind of high.

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<v Speaker 3>You know.

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<v Speaker 5>The story with Apple and Apple has dominated newsflow recently.

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<v Speaker 5>Is three quarters of overall sales declined guidance that indicated

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<v Speaker 5>are heading towards a fourth consecutive quarter of overall sales decline.

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<v Speaker 5>And in the June quarter, China was a bright spot.

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<v Speaker 5>Greater China grew top line eight percent, with a heavy

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<v Speaker 5>emphasis on switchers consumers switching to iPhone, either for the

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<v Speaker 5>first time or from another brand. The news flow and

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<v Speaker 5>the stories and reporting about China's central government clamping down

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<v Speaker 5>on iPhone use in the public sector changes the narrative

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<v Speaker 5>potentially for the rest of the year, but the market

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<v Speaker 5>doesn't agree to what extent. What we wanted to know

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<v Speaker 5>was the hardware upgrades and the tech upgrades here and

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<v Speaker 5>Marx really walked us through them. Do they resonate with

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<v Speaker 5>the Chinese consumer? That's a big question going forward.

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<v Speaker 8>Mark Apple is also said to sell made in India

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<v Speaker 8>iPhones on its launch day for the first time.

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<v Speaker 7>What's behind this move?

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<v Speaker 6>So, yeah, they've been producing iPhones in India for a

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<v Speaker 6>couple of years now, they've really ramped it up in

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<v Speaker 6>recent quarters, and so the goals to get in India

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<v Speaker 6>the maide in India models on launch day for the

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<v Speaker 6>first time. They've actually sold iPhones in their India stores

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<v Speaker 6>and in the India online store from launch day in

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<v Speaker 6>prior years. But according to my colleagues reporting usill with

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<v Speaker 6>the first time that the first models will be the

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<v Speaker 6>made in India models.

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<v Speaker 2>Hey, ed, what should we make of the sustainability initiatives

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<v Speaker 2>that we heard from from Apple today? They're making the

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<v Speaker 2>new aluminum watches first carbon neutral devices. They're dropping leather

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<v Speaker 2>from all iPhone and Apple Watch accessories.

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<v Speaker 4>What do you make of it?

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<v Speaker 5>Yes, yeah, I'm glad that you noticed it, because what

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<v Speaker 5>was interesting in the lead up to this and indeed

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<v Speaker 5>during the event is almost every analyst, market analyst, research analysts,

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<v Speaker 5>and investor that I've spoken to was actually interested in that.

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<v Speaker 5>You know, they buy into the idea of Apple's net

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<v Speaker 5>zero goal for twenty thirty. But the reason that we

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<v Speaker 5>focus on it from kind of markets perspective well is

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<v Speaker 5>supply chain. You know, Apple seems to be able to

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<v Speaker 5>move quite nimbly and swiftly on its supply chain, and

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<v Speaker 5>they confirmed the number of products today are going to

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<v Speaker 5>be either at zero from this point on or in

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<v Speaker 5>the very near term. You know, one of the things

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<v Speaker 5>I'm going to review on my social media piece that's

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<v Speaker 5>coming shortly is you know, they scrap leaver from the

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<v Speaker 5>accessories offering and using more sustainable materials on that side

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<v Speaker 5>as well. It kind of fits with the brand of

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<v Speaker 5>this company, and as we know for investors from an

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<v Speaker 5>SG perspective, that can count. You know, you see many

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<v Speaker 5>of the megatap cap tech names, you know, think about

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<v Speaker 5>their impact on the world, and you know, Mark reported

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<v Speaker 5>in the top Life blog on all of those that

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<v Speaker 5>you can recap.

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<v Speaker 7>Mark, we only have about fifteen seconds left.

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<v Speaker 8>But our producer, one of our producers, wants to know

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<v Speaker 8>are their plans for Apple to lower the cost of

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<v Speaker 8>the iPhone fourteenth.

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<v Speaker 6>Now, I believe the iPhone fourteen is sticking around on

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<v Speaker 6>saying you'll be able to get them at a cheaper price.

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<v Speaker 4>We don't know how much cheaper though, right.

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<v Speaker 6>Not yet, probably one hundred dollars.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay, but Mark, you're still upgrading.

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<v Speaker 6>I'm still upgrading.

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<v Speaker 4>You have do you do every year? You do every year?

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<v Speaker 9>Yes?

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<v Speaker 4>All right?

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<v Speaker 2>Mark im in chief Technology correspondent at Bloomberg News. He

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<v Speaker 2>joins us on zoom from our Los Angeles bureau. Also

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<v Speaker 2>had Lovelow, the co host of Bloomberg Technology on Bloomberg TV,

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<v Speaker 2>joining us live from Cooper Tino.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App,

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<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 2>It's Tim Centeveek and Jess Bennen relyve from the Bloomberg Interactive.

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<v Speaker 2>A broker's studio here in New York. It is Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Business Week, having a fun chat with our friends over

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<v Speaker 2>at Bloomberg TV, Romain Bostick and Scarlett feu. Our next guest, though,

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<v Speaker 2>a veteran of Walmart and Levi Strauss. If you were

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<v Speaker 2>listening to us just now, you heard me introduce him.

0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:57.200
<v Speaker 2>Already he perhaps faces his toughest challenge yet reviving the

0:09:57.280 --> 0:09:59.920
<v Speaker 2>storied brand of j C. Penny, the department store chain

0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:02.280
<v Speaker 2>out for bankruptcy shortly after the start of the pandemic.

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<v Speaker 2>That was back in twenty twenty. Then in November of

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty one, Mark Rosen became the CEO. Just last month,

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<v Speaker 2>the company announced a one billion dollar reinvestment plan that

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<v Speaker 2>focuses on digital and in store experiences. Very pleased to

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<v Speaker 2>have with us, Mark Rosen, CEO at jcpenny, joining us

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<v Speaker 2>on Zoom from jcpenny headquarters in Plano, Texas.

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<v Speaker 3>Mark, how are you. I'm good.

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<v Speaker 10>Thank you very much for having me today.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, it's good to have you with us. Hey, give

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<v Speaker 4>us an update.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a privately held company, so we don't get any

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<v Speaker 2>insight into the finances. We know that the company's planning

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<v Speaker 2>to hire twenty thousand employees ahead of the holiday season.

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<v Speaker 2>But give us some more numbers we can work with.

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<v Speaker 10>Yeah, so Lake, you said, we are a private company,

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<v Speaker 10>but what I can share is we now have sales

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<v Speaker 10>that are over eight billion dollars. We have just over

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<v Speaker 10>six hundred and fifty stores across the country, and we

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<v Speaker 10>also operate JCP dot com, So we're serving customers everywhere

0:10:54.840 --> 0:11:00.480
<v Speaker 10>right now. And the business is really You mentioned that

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<v Speaker 10>we emerge from bankruptcy, and we emerged with a very

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<v Speaker 10>very clean balance sheet, in a strong, strong financial position

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<v Speaker 10>with less than half a billion dollars with less than

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<v Speaker 10>five hundred million dollars of debt on the balance sheet,

0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:19.079
<v Speaker 10>so really financially positioned to drive forward and really reinvigorate

0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:21.920
<v Speaker 10>this brand and re establish our relationship and our relevance

0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:24.920
<v Speaker 10>with our consumers, which is really the core of America.

0:11:24.960 --> 0:11:27.640
<v Speaker 2>You might have heard Romayne just a little earlier talking

0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:30.200
<v Speaker 2>about over the weekend visiting a mall, seeing a JC

0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:33.120
<v Speaker 2>Penny that was no longer operating, and even having the

0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:36.319
<v Speaker 2>conversation with his family about whether or not the store

0:11:36.320 --> 0:11:39.040
<v Speaker 2>still exists. How do you change that narrative and let

0:11:39.120 --> 0:11:42.520
<v Speaker 2>people know that yes, JC Penny is here, and we've

0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:44.360
<v Speaker 2>got six hundred and fifty stores across the country.

0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:44.920
<v Speaker 4>How do you do it?

0:11:46.120 --> 0:11:48.120
<v Speaker 10>Well, that's actually part of so you mentioned that we

0:11:48.280 --> 0:11:52.080
<v Speaker 10>just announced an over a billion dollar investment back into

0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:56.720
<v Speaker 10>the business, and that that investment is focused on remodeling

0:11:56.760 --> 0:12:01.600
<v Speaker 10>our stores and reinvesting in the store platform, putting new technology,

0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:06.720
<v Speaker 10>a new point of sale, in in revitalizing our online

0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:10.839
<v Speaker 10>shopping experience and really improving THEJCP dot com shopping experience,

0:12:11.240 --> 0:12:13.800
<v Speaker 10>and then also our supply chain. But I would say

0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:16.320
<v Speaker 10>we're a retailer, and so it all really starts out

0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:18.880
<v Speaker 10>with product. And over the last couple of years, what

0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:23.840
<v Speaker 10>we've done is reintroduce over twenty five of our brands,

0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:27.320
<v Speaker 10>brands like Stafford that every customer knows and loves and

0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.120
<v Speaker 10>a lot of customers grew up with brands like Liz

0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:34.280
<v Speaker 10>Claiborne and brands like Cooks in our homes, in our

0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:37.600
<v Speaker 10>home area, and so we've reintroduced that product. And now

0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:39.920
<v Speaker 10>what we're investing in also along with that a billion

0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:44.120
<v Speaker 10>dollars is a what we're calling a brand reinvigoration that

0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:47.040
<v Speaker 10>is centered around really helping our customers make it count.

0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:49.120
<v Speaker 10>And when we look at our customer. I set our

0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:51.960
<v Speaker 10>customers the core of America. It's the school teachers that

0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:54.520
<v Speaker 10>teach our children. It's the construction workers that build our

0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:57.760
<v Speaker 10>homes in the buildings we work in. It's medical workers

0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:00.440
<v Speaker 10>who take care of our families. And that customer is

0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:03.560
<v Speaker 10>looking for a sense of belonging there, looking for a

0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:07.320
<v Speaker 10>place where they can find accessible fashion that they can

0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:10.320
<v Speaker 10>still get at a great value, because that customer is

0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:12.360
<v Speaker 10>making trade offs every day in their life. And so

0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:16.839
<v Speaker 10>what we're introducing also is a campaign to reinvigorate the brand,

0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:19.920
<v Speaker 10>centering around how we help our customers make every moment

0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:21.760
<v Speaker 10>in their lives, whether it's a big moment like their

0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:24.720
<v Speaker 10>daughter's wedding, or whether it's a smaller moment like getting

0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:26.640
<v Speaker 10>their kids ready for school in the morning. But how

0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:29.680
<v Speaker 10>do they use the products that we have at jcpenny

0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:31.920
<v Speaker 10>to make that count but be able to make a count,

0:13:31.960 --> 0:13:34.240
<v Speaker 10>but still have money left to put breakfast on the

0:13:34.240 --> 0:13:35.040
<v Speaker 10>table for the kids.

0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:38.200
<v Speaker 9>Hey, Mark, whenever you're talking about middle income shoppers, and

0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:42.160
<v Speaker 9>especially with this inflation dynamic, how do you sort of

0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:45.480
<v Speaker 9>view that as far as how to get shoppers back

0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.360
<v Speaker 9>in when they are trying to figure out where to

0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:52.600
<v Speaker 9>sort of shift their spending at this point.

0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:54.920
<v Speaker 10>Right inflation is an issue for our customer. We look

0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:58.199
<v Speaker 10>right now, we see that our customer is spending over

0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:02.880
<v Speaker 10>seven hundred dollars a month more us for rent or mortgage,

0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:06.480
<v Speaker 10>for groceries, for gas, and that means that every dollar

0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:08.880
<v Speaker 10>is even more important to them, and it's more important

0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:11.360
<v Speaker 10>that they make every dollar count. And that's really what

0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:13.160
<v Speaker 10>we're here for is to help them do that. And

0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:14.880
<v Speaker 10>I think the unique thing that we can bring to

0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:19.560
<v Speaker 10>the table is we can bring great fashion and great

0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:23.520
<v Speaker 10>product at a really accessible price to our customers. And

0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:25.720
<v Speaker 10>that's what that's what they need, that's what they're looking

0:14:25.720 --> 0:14:26.960
<v Speaker 10>for right now in their lives.

0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:30.400
<v Speaker 8>When you talk about technology upgrades to some of these stores,

0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:33.520
<v Speaker 8>kind of build on that. What more specifically are you doing.

0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:38.000
<v Speaker 10>Within the stores. It's a lot of it's mobile and

0:14:38.040 --> 0:14:41.320
<v Speaker 10>it's point of sale or checkout technology. So we'll be

0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:44.680
<v Speaker 10>within the stores centralizing the checkout, but we'll also be

0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:46.480
<v Speaker 10>putting in the hand of hands of all of our

0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:49.480
<v Speaker 10>associates in the stores mobile devices that will help them

0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:52.640
<v Speaker 10>manage inventory better. It'll help them ship and fulfill online orders,

0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:55.040
<v Speaker 10>it'll help them check inventory and order online for a

0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:58.520
<v Speaker 10>customer or I've talked about centralized checkout. What it really

0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:00.520
<v Speaker 10>will do is move check out anywhere so that they

0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:03.040
<v Speaker 10>can mobile check out a customer anywhere in the store.

0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:05.720
<v Speaker 2>Hey, Mark, God, I got so many questions for you.

0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:07.160
<v Speaker 2>We got three minutes left, So we're going to do

0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:09.120
<v Speaker 2>sort of a you know, try to do some rapid

0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:12.960
<v Speaker 2>fire questions. Sales of over eight billion dollars, Where do

0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:14.800
<v Speaker 2>more sales happen right now at the six hundred and

0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:17.920
<v Speaker 2>fifty stores across the country or jcpenny dot com.

0:15:18.240 --> 0:15:21.200
<v Speaker 10>So it's about a seventy thirty split with stores the

0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:24.040
<v Speaker 10>seventy percent and with the online business about thirty And

0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:28.520
<v Speaker 10>where are you more bullish? So both are actually growing,

0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:32.120
<v Speaker 10>and we're focused on growing both. But I do believe

0:15:32.160 --> 0:15:36.600
<v Speaker 10>that right now, we've done a significant amount of reimagining

0:15:36.640 --> 0:15:40.040
<v Speaker 10>our online experience and investing in JCP dot com, and

0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:41.560
<v Speaker 10>we think there's significant growth there.

0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:43.360
<v Speaker 2>So do you think that it'll is it growing at

0:15:43.400 --> 0:15:46.760
<v Speaker 2>a faster rate? In like yelly clips store sales with

0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:48.400
<v Speaker 2>JCP dot com in a number.

0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:52.120
<v Speaker 10>Of years, the JCP dot com business is growing faster

0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:56.320
<v Speaker 10>than the store business. I don't believe that it's ever

0:15:56.400 --> 0:15:58.560
<v Speaker 10>going to eat clips. I think you could reach, like,

0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:00.880
<v Speaker 10>you know, a forty sixty or something like that. But

0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:02.800
<v Speaker 10>the reality is what we're seeing is that customers still

0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:04.520
<v Speaker 10>want to shop in stores. They still want to come in,

0:16:04.560 --> 0:16:06.400
<v Speaker 10>they want to have that try and experience, They want

0:16:06.440 --> 0:16:09.160
<v Speaker 10>to get help from an associate to put together an outfit,

0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:13.160
<v Speaker 10>and in important areas like we reintroduce beauty, a customer

0:16:13.200 --> 0:16:15.360
<v Speaker 10>is looking to come in and get help and try product.

0:16:15.960 --> 0:16:19.280
<v Speaker 8>When you look at this portfolio, whether it's fashion, apparel, home,

0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:23.040
<v Speaker 8>beauty as well as jewelry, where are you seeing spending

0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:26.360
<v Speaker 8>the strongest and where do you see people pulling.

0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:26.800
<v Speaker 7>Back the most.

0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:31.040
<v Speaker 10>It's interesting because if we look across the business, we're

0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:33.560
<v Speaker 10>really pleased with the growth that we've seen in our

0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:36.800
<v Speaker 10>home business and in our men's and women's apparel business,

0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:40.240
<v Speaker 10>and we believe we've gained share in all of those

0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:43.760
<v Speaker 10>areas because customers are spending there. Our jewelry business is

0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:46.520
<v Speaker 10>another one that continues to be really strong right now.

0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:50.960
<v Speaker 10>I think rather than seeing people reduce spending in particular areas,

0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:53.720
<v Speaker 10>we're actually seeing that within an area, they're being a

0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:57.320
<v Speaker 10>little bit more selective about what they're choosing, and we

0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:00.240
<v Speaker 10>are seeing some more growth come from some of our

0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:04.080
<v Speaker 10>private label brands. For example, in home, we're seeing products

0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:06.680
<v Speaker 10>like Cooks, which is a private label opening price point,

0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:11.440
<v Speaker 10>small small appliance think like blenders and toasters and things

0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:14.439
<v Speaker 10>like that, and cookwear. We're seeing customers choose that product

0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:17.679
<v Speaker 10>in some cases because they realize it's great value and

0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:20.000
<v Speaker 10>they can save money by going for that product.

0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:22.160
<v Speaker 2>So are you going to stay a private company forever?

0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:23.560
<v Speaker 2>Is there an IPO on the horizon?

0:17:24.960 --> 0:17:28.640
<v Speaker 10>So right now, we're really actually focused on just driving sustainable,

0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:32.159
<v Speaker 10>profitable customer growth within the business, and we're very fortunate

0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:34.399
<v Speaker 10>that we have an ownership group that is aligned with

0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:36.720
<v Speaker 10>doing that and focused on the long term.

0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:38.920
<v Speaker 3>And right now the.

0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:43.600
<v Speaker 10>Focus is building that relationship with customers, driving customers back

0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:45.240
<v Speaker 10>to the brand, and then we'll see where it goes

0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:45.640
<v Speaker 10>from there.

0:17:46.040 --> 0:17:49.199
<v Speaker 2>Mark Rosen, CEO at jcpenny, joining us on Zoom from

0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:52.359
<v Speaker 2>jcpenny headquarters in Plano, Texas. Hey, Mark, really appreciate you

0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:54.280
<v Speaker 2>taking the time. Come visit us next time you're in

0:17:54.280 --> 0:17:54.720
<v Speaker 2>New York.

0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:59.520
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:02.520
<v Speaker 1>live week day afternoons from three to six Easter on

0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:06.400
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business App, and YouTube. You can

0:18:06.440 --> 0:18:09.679
<v Speaker 1>also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:13.480
<v Speaker 1>York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:18:15.760 --> 0:18:19.920
<v Speaker 3>Oh you need to store on a new Steve Beava.

0:18:22.520 --> 0:18:28.240
<v Speaker 2>Bevag Well. For the last several years, people visiting Las

0:18:28.320 --> 0:18:31.920
<v Speaker 2>Vegas might have been as puzzled as they gaze westward

0:18:31.960 --> 0:18:34.520
<v Speaker 2>from the strip. Looming in the distance was a three

0:18:34.560 --> 0:18:37.840
<v Speaker 2>hundred and sixty six foot tall sphere. The dark orb

0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:40.800
<v Speaker 2>bore a familial resemblance to the Death Star, but lacked

0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:44.040
<v Speaker 2>any signage offering a clue to its purpose. It was

0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:47.800
<v Speaker 2>obviously an attraction, but what kind. Well to understand what

0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:49.960
<v Speaker 2>it is and how it got there, you have to

0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:51.720
<v Speaker 2>go all the way back to twenty sixteen and to

0:18:51.840 --> 0:18:55.159
<v Speaker 2>a sketch on a notepad. Devin Leonard is out with

0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:57.720
<v Speaker 2>a new feature that delves into the convoluted history and

0:18:57.760 --> 0:19:00.320
<v Speaker 2>promise of what's known as the Sphere. Devin's story is

0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:02.840
<v Speaker 2>going to be featured in the forthcoming issue of BusinessWeek magazine.

0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:04.200
<v Speaker 2>You can read it now though on the Bloomberg and

0:19:04.240 --> 0:19:07.119
<v Speaker 2>at Bloomberg dot com slash BusinessWeek. Also here is the

0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:09.880
<v Speaker 2>editor of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Joel Webber, he's with us along

0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:12.560
<v Speaker 2>with Devin in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio.

0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:14.080
<v Speaker 4>So, Joel, are you a fan.

0:19:13.960 --> 0:19:14.560
<v Speaker 3>Of the Knicks?

0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:15.719
<v Speaker 11>Uh?

0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:18.840
<v Speaker 3>I kind of this is hard to say.

0:19:20.720 --> 0:19:21.600
<v Speaker 4>You did not know that was?

0:19:22.680 --> 0:19:26.760
<v Speaker 3>You know? I I love basketball. I grew up playing basketball.

0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:34.920
<v Speaker 12>The for the Mets, the Nets and the Jets last

0:19:35.000 --> 0:19:35.800
<v Speaker 12>night was heartbreaking.

0:19:35.840 --> 0:19:36.439
<v Speaker 4>Sorry about that.

0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:39.360
<v Speaker 12>I mean got the wind, but you know, that's just nuts.

0:19:39.840 --> 0:19:42.359
<v Speaker 12>It kind of locks you into the rhyme like the

0:19:42.480 --> 0:19:49.880
<v Speaker 12>Nick doesn't. But look, the Knicks h have a very

0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:55.440
<v Speaker 12>interesting owner in James Dolan, who owns his own MSG

0:19:56.280 --> 0:20:00.760
<v Speaker 12>and that we have written James Dolan stories because he

0:20:00.960 --> 0:20:06.600
<v Speaker 12>is not thought highly of by NBA fans, specifically Nick fans.

0:20:08.080 --> 0:20:11.879
<v Speaker 12>But what this story was really about wasn't that. And

0:20:12.560 --> 0:20:15.560
<v Speaker 12>you know, I wanted to approach this story, and I

0:20:15.560 --> 0:20:18.720
<v Speaker 12>think Devin did a great job of this. He's actually

0:20:18.840 --> 0:20:21.720
<v Speaker 12>kind of fascinating in that he has other interests and

0:20:21.920 --> 0:20:25.040
<v Speaker 12>music's a big one, and he saw this opportunity to

0:20:25.160 --> 0:20:28.719
<v Speaker 12>basically build something in Vegas that had never been built before,

0:20:29.400 --> 0:20:32.640
<v Speaker 12>and he had a vision that I think originated more

0:20:32.720 --> 0:20:35.920
<v Speaker 12>or less with him and he went and like did

0:20:35.960 --> 0:20:38.400
<v Speaker 12>it and now it's like gonna open and there has

0:20:38.560 --> 0:20:41.280
<v Speaker 12>never been a music venue like this, So yeah, it's

0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:44.600
<v Speaker 12>really easy to hate on James Dolan and the guy

0:20:44.760 --> 0:20:49.000
<v Speaker 12>may have pulled off like what's basically the perhaps we'll

0:20:49.040 --> 0:20:53.280
<v Speaker 12>find out a world class music venue unlike any other.

0:20:53.680 --> 0:20:56.240
<v Speaker 12>And it's shaped like a sphere.

0:20:55.840 --> 0:20:58.000
<v Speaker 13>And that's what it's called, right Devin, The sphere. Yeah,

0:20:58.040 --> 0:21:00.159
<v Speaker 13>I mean, I mean, look, you know this, this is

0:21:00.160 --> 0:21:01.800
<v Speaker 13>this guy. He embarks on this thing. You know, he's

0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:04.840
<v Speaker 13>he's past sixty, He's got, you know, all the money

0:21:04.840 --> 0:21:06.439
<v Speaker 13>he needs. He's the son of you, the son of

0:21:06.440 --> 0:21:08.600
<v Speaker 13>a billionaire Charles dall On, the cable you know, Cable

0:21:08.640 --> 0:21:13.960
<v Speaker 13>TV pioneer, and you know, his family controls already controls,

0:21:14.000 --> 0:21:16.000
<v Speaker 13>you know, some of the world's most you know, famous venues.

0:21:16.040 --> 0:21:18.639
<v Speaker 13>You know, some people call him Madison Square Garden, you know,

0:21:18.680 --> 0:21:20.399
<v Speaker 13>you know, the most famous venue in the world. And

0:21:20.480 --> 0:21:22.960
<v Speaker 13>yet he has this idea he wants to he wants

0:21:23.000 --> 0:21:27.600
<v Speaker 13>to disrupt live entertainment by building you know what's basically

0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:30.440
<v Speaker 13>what is it's you know, it's around it's an orb

0:21:30.640 --> 0:21:33.960
<v Speaker 13>like you know, sphere, and it's it's sort of three

0:21:34.000 --> 0:21:35.800
<v Speaker 13>different things. You know, at night, it's going to be

0:21:35.800 --> 0:21:38.480
<v Speaker 13>a concert hall with this with this sort of state

0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:40.760
<v Speaker 13>of the art sounds. So someone also this huge LED

0:21:40.960 --> 0:21:44.600
<v Speaker 13>screen that's his biggest, bigger than I should say, three

0:21:44.680 --> 0:21:47.399
<v Speaker 13>football fields, and you know the high they're calling it

0:21:47.440 --> 0:21:49.520
<v Speaker 13>the highest resolution LED screen.

0:21:49.640 --> 0:21:51.359
<v Speaker 2>If you're watching us on YouTube right now, you can

0:21:51.359 --> 0:21:53.800
<v Speaker 2>actually see the video and images on the screen.

0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:54.560
<v Speaker 3>In the world.

0:21:54.600 --> 0:21:56.320
<v Speaker 11>In the daytime, it's going to be sort of more

0:21:56.320 --> 0:21:59.600
<v Speaker 11>of a tourist attraction, immersive entertainment. Uh you know, seats

0:21:59.600 --> 0:22:01.760
<v Speaker 11>will shake, the wind will blow, you know they have.

0:22:02.000 --> 0:22:04.399
<v Speaker 11>Then they're gonna be debuting a movie in October, directed

0:22:04.400 --> 0:22:07.879
<v Speaker 11>by Darren Aronofski that uh you know, the director of

0:22:08.040 --> 0:22:11.840
<v Speaker 11>uh uh you know, a Black Swan and record for

0:22:11.920 --> 0:22:14.280
<v Speaker 11>Dream and just just to wrap it up, and what

0:22:14.320 --> 0:22:16.440
<v Speaker 11>you're looking at now, if you are looking at TV,

0:22:16.520 --> 0:22:19.320
<v Speaker 11>that's the exosphere. The outside that's gonna be a giant

0:22:19.400 --> 0:22:22.760
<v Speaker 11>billboard and uh you know, they're they're gonna run ads

0:22:22.760 --> 0:22:24.040
<v Speaker 11>on that among many other things.

0:22:24.080 --> 0:22:25.920
<v Speaker 2>You've got to see pictures and videos of this thing

0:22:25.920 --> 0:22:27.919
<v Speaker 2>to actually do a justice. I mean, you you know,

0:22:28.640 --> 0:22:31.600
<v Speaker 2>hearing about it is one thing totally, but this thing

0:22:31.680 --> 0:22:33.280
<v Speaker 2>is actually really, really cool.

0:22:34.200 --> 0:22:36.320
<v Speaker 11>No that, I mean that That's something that really kind

0:22:36.320 --> 0:22:38.720
<v Speaker 11>of blew my mind was that when I went out

0:22:38.720 --> 0:22:41.280
<v Speaker 11>to Vegas to go take a tour, I actually actually

0:22:41.280 --> 0:22:42.760
<v Speaker 11>I stayed in the West and you know, we just

0:22:42.800 --> 0:22:44.760
<v Speaker 11>sort of overlooking it, and I asked them, you know, hey,

0:22:44.800 --> 0:22:46.439
<v Speaker 11>can I can I I want to look out at

0:22:46.480 --> 0:22:48.920
<v Speaker 11>the sphere because it was because it was one hundred

0:22:48.920 --> 0:22:51.879
<v Speaker 11>and fourteen degrees, I got to do it. I'm not

0:22:51.880 --> 0:22:54.240
<v Speaker 11>gonna go outside. But but no, but but I got

0:22:54.280 --> 0:22:56.159
<v Speaker 11>in there and just looked at it out the window.

0:22:56.320 --> 0:22:58.400
<v Speaker 11>I know, I couldn't believe it. I mean that that's when,

0:22:58.680 --> 0:23:00.840
<v Speaker 11>you know, again, as I say in the store, a

0:23:00.840 --> 0:23:02.280
<v Speaker 11>lot of people, you know, we're doubting. A lot of

0:23:02.320 --> 0:23:03.920
<v Speaker 11>people are saying this is you know, this is never

0:23:03.960 --> 0:23:05.679
<v Speaker 11>going to work, this is the death Star. And then

0:23:05.680 --> 0:23:08.040
<v Speaker 11>they turned it on and you know, everybody had, you know,

0:23:08.160 --> 0:23:09.320
<v Speaker 11>people just kind of went nuts.

0:23:09.640 --> 0:23:12.480
<v Speaker 7>So why is spear? What was the inspiration behind it?

0:23:13.560 --> 0:23:16.159
<v Speaker 11>You know, that's a really good question. You know, in

0:23:16.160 --> 0:23:19.639
<v Speaker 11>twenty sixteen, you know, his family just sold Cable Vision.

0:23:19.680 --> 0:23:22.960
<v Speaker 11>They just they just sold it for eighteen billion dollars,

0:23:23.800 --> 0:23:25.560
<v Speaker 11>you know, And I make a joke in the story

0:23:25.600 --> 0:23:27.000
<v Speaker 11>the guy plays in the band. I mean he could

0:23:27.040 --> 0:23:28.560
<v Speaker 11>have gone off and played and played in the band.

0:23:28.560 --> 0:23:32.480
<v Speaker 11>And he's like he drew a picture, you know, on

0:23:32.480 --> 0:23:35.920
<v Speaker 11>on a notepad and you know, and told this guy

0:23:36.000 --> 0:23:39.800
<v Speaker 11>been the chief technology officer of a cable vision, this

0:23:39.880 --> 0:23:41.520
<v Speaker 11>is the venue of the future. Let's go out and

0:23:41.560 --> 0:23:44.160
<v Speaker 11>disrupt the live entertainment is. I don't actually know where,

0:23:44.200 --> 0:23:45.679
<v Speaker 11>No worry, he got that idea.

0:23:45.720 --> 0:23:48.400
<v Speaker 12>But but it turns out that from an engineering standpoint,

0:23:48.560 --> 0:23:50.680
<v Speaker 12>it is incredibly difficult.

0:23:50.680 --> 0:23:54.320
<v Speaker 3>No, it's insane to playing music in. So how did

0:23:54.320 --> 0:23:56.280
<v Speaker 3>they go about solving that. Well, it's about.

0:23:56.320 --> 0:24:01.240
<v Speaker 11>It's an acoustical nightmare because everything just echoes inside of sperciality.

0:24:01.920 --> 0:24:05.880
<v Speaker 11>They they found a company in called hola Plot in Germany.

0:24:05.960 --> 0:24:12.320
<v Speaker 11>That's that basically beams audio to using algorithms to different

0:24:12.359 --> 0:24:14.199
<v Speaker 11>places and you know, to where wherever you're sitting that

0:24:14.240 --> 0:24:16.399
<v Speaker 11>the algorithm set up so they're basically measured. They're creating

0:24:16.400 --> 0:24:19.080
<v Speaker 11>these beams you know, sound and and and they're measured.

0:24:19.160 --> 0:24:21.720
<v Speaker 11>So everybody sort of here's the same thing. But that way,

0:24:22.080 --> 0:24:24.160
<v Speaker 11>since you're sending the audio right to the people, you're

0:24:24.880 --> 0:24:28.880
<v Speaker 11>everything isn't just bouncing all around and echoing and that's

0:24:29.000 --> 0:24:32.359
<v Speaker 11>just one of the sort of crazy crazy and and

0:24:32.359 --> 0:24:36.040
<v Speaker 11>and I think ultimately expensive things they did, and and

0:24:36.400 --> 0:24:39.280
<v Speaker 11>helps explain why this thing went from one point two

0:24:39.320 --> 0:24:42.160
<v Speaker 11>billion dollars you know price tag to uh two point

0:24:42.200 --> 0:24:43.199
<v Speaker 11>three billion inflation.

0:24:43.320 --> 0:24:43.760
<v Speaker 3>That's the thing.

0:24:44.119 --> 0:24:48.920
<v Speaker 12>Who's so so wait, there's gonna be a big act

0:24:49.000 --> 0:24:50.320
<v Speaker 12>that's gonna open this up.

0:24:50.400 --> 0:24:52.919
<v Speaker 3>And because this is gonna happen, and I mean it's.

0:24:52.800 --> 0:24:56.520
<v Speaker 12>Already in Vegas, it's built, they're already doing weird stuff

0:24:56.560 --> 0:24:57.119
<v Speaker 12>on the strip.

0:24:57.320 --> 0:25:01.080
<v Speaker 3>Right who's opening a little bit? And from Ireland called

0:25:01.480 --> 0:25:02.680
<v Speaker 3>you two of them?

0:25:02.840 --> 0:25:04.479
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, I think if you're gonna be there, yeah, if

0:25:04.480 --> 0:25:06.639
<v Speaker 12>you're gonna make if you're gonna make a splash like

0:25:06.760 --> 0:25:08.919
<v Speaker 12>launch with with with YouTube.

0:25:09.119 --> 0:25:10.600
<v Speaker 3>How long are they going to be opening there?

0:25:10.680 --> 0:25:10.959
<v Speaker 4>They're good.

0:25:10.960 --> 0:25:13.720
<v Speaker 11>They're the're gonna be playing for twenty five twenty five nights,

0:25:13.760 --> 0:25:14.880
<v Speaker 11>and tickets are how much?

0:25:15.520 --> 0:25:15.720
<v Speaker 8>You know?

0:25:16.119 --> 0:25:18.200
<v Speaker 11>I think they started around one hundred and fifty dollars.

0:25:18.280 --> 0:25:21.160
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, but I mean I'm going well, I mean.

0:25:21.119 --> 0:25:22.639
<v Speaker 11>They're almost all sold out, so I think if you

0:25:22.640 --> 0:25:24.119
<v Speaker 11>want to go, Joel, you're gonna have to look them

0:25:24.119 --> 0:25:26.240
<v Speaker 11>stuff hop and those prices are.

0:25:26.200 --> 0:25:28.200
<v Speaker 2>Right, yeah, I mean it's a good point though, Joel,

0:25:28.240 --> 0:25:29.840
<v Speaker 2>that you bring up if it's good enough for Bono,

0:25:30.119 --> 0:25:32.359
<v Speaker 2>all right, then you know it's good enough for other musicians, right.

0:25:32.760 --> 0:25:35.320
<v Speaker 12>I also just think this is this is the future,

0:25:35.560 --> 0:25:38.399
<v Speaker 12>right like live event We know that live events are

0:25:38.400 --> 0:25:40.639
<v Speaker 12>where artists make their money. If you can make an

0:25:40.760 --> 0:25:42.920
<v Speaker 12>artist a venue, unlike any.

0:25:42.760 --> 0:25:45.280
<v Speaker 3>Other what happens, you can get anybody you want.

0:25:45.400 --> 0:25:47.760
<v Speaker 11>Well, they don't have to travel. So so I mean,

0:25:48.119 --> 0:25:51.720
<v Speaker 11>these these bands have like these caravans of trucks that

0:25:52.840 --> 0:25:54.960
<v Speaker 11>you know they carry there, they're they're they're you know,

0:25:55.000 --> 0:25:57.080
<v Speaker 11>all the equipment around all that they take their led

0:25:57.280 --> 0:25:59.520
<v Speaker 11>lighting around, they take their sounds just to surround all

0:25:59.520 --> 0:26:02.400
<v Speaker 11>these contras halls, and and and and in this case

0:26:02.520 --> 0:26:04.320
<v Speaker 11>is from what I'm told with you too and other bands,

0:26:04.520 --> 0:26:08.560
<v Speaker 11>they actually have two sets, you know, two caravans that

0:26:08.880 --> 0:26:11.560
<v Speaker 11>you know that you know that that move in between

0:26:11.640 --> 0:26:14.240
<v Speaker 11>in between venues. So when they're so the one to

0:26:14.280 --> 0:26:15.840
<v Speaker 11>the next one, you know they're setting up the next

0:26:15.920 --> 0:26:18.160
<v Speaker 11>venue walk while they're breaking down the first. Anyway, I mean,

0:26:18.240 --> 0:26:21.040
<v Speaker 11>it's it sounds, it's enormously expensive, and it's a huge headache,

0:26:21.040 --> 0:26:23.119
<v Speaker 11>and and and I guess if they can spend you know,

0:26:23.160 --> 0:26:25.120
<v Speaker 11>a couple of months in Vegas. You know, some people

0:26:25.119 --> 0:26:26.520
<v Speaker 11>are definitely gonna want to do that. And some of

0:26:26.560 --> 0:26:27.960
<v Speaker 11>the bands, by the way that they're talking about a

0:26:28.000 --> 0:26:35.959
<v Speaker 11>cold Play and Fish, Harry Styles isish.

0:26:37.480 --> 0:26:42.800
<v Speaker 4>A relationship with Yeah, yeah, you packed that house.

0:26:43.040 --> 0:26:50.000
<v Speaker 12>Yeah okay, So there's also a possibility that Vegas won't

0:26:50.000 --> 0:26:51.920
<v Speaker 12>be the only place that has a sphere.

0:26:52.520 --> 0:26:54.920
<v Speaker 11>Not if Jim Dog can help. But yeah, no, they're they're,

0:26:54.920 --> 0:26:57.479
<v Speaker 11>they're they're they're trying to get permission to build one

0:26:57.480 --> 0:27:02.880
<v Speaker 11>in London, and there's they're scouting other locations. But after

0:27:02.920 --> 0:27:06.080
<v Speaker 11>spending two point three billion dollars, they want to change

0:27:06.119 --> 0:27:07.960
<v Speaker 11>their plans to get partners because he's not going to

0:27:08.040 --> 0:27:10.240
<v Speaker 11>want to do that again. Well he's already said he

0:27:10.280 --> 0:27:11.400
<v Speaker 11>says he's not going to do that again.

0:27:12.320 --> 0:27:12.679
<v Speaker 4>Okay.

0:27:12.720 --> 0:27:15.600
<v Speaker 2>So Joel, you mentioned that, you know, with live music

0:27:15.640 --> 0:27:18.280
<v Speaker 2>in this day and age, the world of Beyonce, the

0:27:18.320 --> 0:27:22.520
<v Speaker 2>world of Taylor Swift, people will pay for certain acts

0:27:22.320 --> 0:27:24.560
<v Speaker 2>and certain experiences more than.

0:27:24.520 --> 0:27:26.240
<v Speaker 3>One hundred and fifty dollars. Oh for sure.

0:27:27.080 --> 0:27:29.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you didn't see me going to beyoncere Taylor Swift

0:27:29.640 --> 0:27:33.520
<v Speaker 2>as concerts, even though I wanted to, devin it was

0:27:33.560 --> 0:27:36.000
<v Speaker 2>hard to see this coming, like the post pandemic surge

0:27:36.000 --> 0:27:38.560
<v Speaker 2>and especially the high prices that people would pay. Talk

0:27:38.600 --> 0:27:40.359
<v Speaker 2>about the construction of this and the way that the

0:27:40.400 --> 0:27:42.639
<v Speaker 2>pandemic derailed it, because this thing was in the works

0:27:42.680 --> 0:27:44.960
<v Speaker 2>before the summer of twenty twenty three.

0:27:45.359 --> 0:27:47.199
<v Speaker 11>No, because that's I mean, that's the whole thing. They

0:27:47.760 --> 0:27:53.200
<v Speaker 11>basically they least eighteen acres of land from from Las

0:27:53.240 --> 0:27:57.440
<v Speaker 11>Vegas sands and they started to build this thing and

0:27:58.600 --> 0:28:02.360
<v Speaker 11>then in twenty twenty pandemic hits and it just drives

0:28:02.440 --> 0:28:06.960
<v Speaker 11>up the cost of you know, steel, computer chips, you know, basically,

0:28:07.040 --> 0:28:08.760
<v Speaker 11>you know, just saying the story just about anything you need,

0:28:08.960 --> 0:28:12.520
<v Speaker 11>you know, for a multi billion dollar development led yeah,

0:28:12.600 --> 0:28:16.280
<v Speaker 11>yea yeah, yeah, no, yes, especially for the inside and

0:28:16.320 --> 0:28:20.879
<v Speaker 11>the outside of the excessphere. But so so that effect

0:28:20.880 --> 0:28:23.560
<v Speaker 11>and also it halted construction. They were initially going to

0:28:23.680 --> 0:28:27.320
<v Speaker 11>open in twenty twenty one, so that set them back

0:28:27.359 --> 0:28:30.000
<v Speaker 11>three years. But but but it was also just all

0:28:30.040 --> 0:28:32.600
<v Speaker 11>this advanced technology, all these things they're experimenting with. They

0:28:32.600 --> 0:28:34.600
<v Speaker 11>had to create an entirely new camera just to be

0:28:34.600 --> 0:28:37.720
<v Speaker 11>able to capture images large enough to fit you know,

0:28:37.800 --> 0:28:41.200
<v Speaker 11>that screen. They were stitching images together for multiple cameras.

0:28:40.960 --> 0:28:43.520
<v Speaker 12>Camera and they had to patent this thing because it's

0:28:43.800 --> 0:28:46.720
<v Speaker 12>like the equality and size of this image is so big.

0:28:46.800 --> 0:28:48.440
<v Speaker 12>And then like I think this is like there's like

0:28:48.560 --> 0:28:51.160
<v Speaker 12>some feats of engineering that they passed.

0:28:51.000 --> 0:28:53.400
<v Speaker 11>A lot of stuff, and I came, there's I think

0:28:53.400 --> 0:28:55.800
<v Speaker 11>the numbers on like sixty patents overall and not just

0:28:55.880 --> 0:28:58.440
<v Speaker 11>that the camera is just you know, like eight or something.

0:28:58.480 --> 0:29:03.000
<v Speaker 12>So yeah, so what's it look like, you know in Vegas?

0:29:03.080 --> 0:29:05.040
<v Speaker 12>I mean we saw those images, but like, give me

0:29:05.080 --> 0:29:06.720
<v Speaker 12>a sense of the scale of this thing. I mean,

0:29:06.720 --> 0:29:08.920
<v Speaker 12>the strip is the strip, and like, is this just

0:29:09.760 --> 0:29:12.560
<v Speaker 12>you suddenly not realize that the strip's there anymore? And

0:29:12.600 --> 0:29:15.880
<v Speaker 12>there's an eyeball or whatever else they want to make.

0:29:15.920 --> 0:29:19.960
<v Speaker 11>Well, it does take take your attention away from anything else.

0:29:20.160 --> 0:29:21.880
<v Speaker 11>But I mean you fly into Vegas, I mean you

0:29:21.880 --> 0:29:24.320
<v Speaker 11>can see it from the airport, you know what I mean,

0:29:24.320 --> 0:29:27.560
<v Speaker 11>it's just you know, it's I think that may be

0:29:27.720 --> 0:29:29.320
<v Speaker 11>a building or two that are bigger than it, but

0:29:29.400 --> 0:29:33.360
<v Speaker 11>I mean, you know, it's it's it's there. It dominates,

0:29:33.600 --> 0:29:35.840
<v Speaker 11>you know, from depending on where you're standing, you know,

0:29:36.080 --> 0:29:38.920
<v Speaker 11>and if that is, assuming it's lit up, you know,

0:29:39.360 --> 0:29:44.320
<v Speaker 11>you know, it's you know, I guess in certain sense

0:29:44.320 --> 0:29:45.840
<v Speaker 11>of dominates the strip.

0:29:46.200 --> 0:29:50.640
<v Speaker 12>Wait a sign that says your ad here.

0:29:51.880 --> 0:29:55.040
<v Speaker 8>So just how complicated was it to get approval to

0:29:55.280 --> 0:29:55.680
<v Speaker 8>build that?

0:29:56.720 --> 0:29:59.160
<v Speaker 11>Well, that's the funny thing is is that the approval

0:29:59.360 --> 0:30:02.840
<v Speaker 11>it flew through the approval places in Vegas in Vegas,

0:30:03.280 --> 0:30:07.360
<v Speaker 11>but in London they they I guess they submitted to

0:30:07.360 --> 0:30:11.400
<v Speaker 11>the planning application in in twenty nineteen and they haven't

0:30:11.400 --> 0:30:14.080
<v Speaker 11>built anything yet. You know, there's a local development corporation

0:30:14.120 --> 0:30:17.240
<v Speaker 11>that overseas the site and they finally signed off last year,

0:30:17.600 --> 0:30:19.960
<v Speaker 11>but they're still finalizing the deal with Dolan's company and

0:30:19.960 --> 0:30:23.440
<v Speaker 11>then it goes to the Mayor of London and he

0:30:23.480 --> 0:30:26.720
<v Speaker 11>has to consider it. And there's also there's also a

0:30:26.720 --> 0:30:30.480
<v Speaker 11>Secretary of State you know in the Sunac administration that

0:30:30.560 --> 0:30:32.640
<v Speaker 11>might be weighing in a too. So that's taken forever

0:30:33.080 --> 0:30:35.720
<v Speaker 11>and you know, and nothing's been built. So you have

0:30:35.760 --> 0:30:38.800
<v Speaker 11>two very very different situations. And also you know, if

0:30:38.800 --> 0:30:41.360
<v Speaker 11>they went to la if they went to New York,

0:30:42.400 --> 0:30:43.200
<v Speaker 11>much more similar to.

0:30:43.160 --> 0:30:45.960
<v Speaker 3>London than you know in Vegas. In Vegas, they.

0:30:46.080 --> 0:30:47.720
<v Speaker 2>Where would I where would you find the space for

0:30:47.760 --> 0:30:49.400
<v Speaker 2>this in other cities? Like where are they doing this

0:30:49.480 --> 0:30:53.160
<v Speaker 2>in London. You need seventeen eighteen acres, you know that.

0:30:53.160 --> 0:30:55.520
<v Speaker 11>That's the funny thing, tim, is that they're building on

0:30:55.560 --> 0:30:59.400
<v Speaker 11>a much smaller, smaller piece of land in London. I

0:30:59.400 --> 0:31:01.560
<v Speaker 11>went over there used to be a parking lot. You know,

0:31:01.600 --> 0:31:03.719
<v Speaker 11>it's kind of been between some train tracks, but uh,

0:31:05.240 --> 0:31:07.920
<v Speaker 11>it's it's it's on a site that that was originally

0:31:08.000 --> 0:31:10.160
<v Speaker 11>sort of set aside for the I guess the Olympics

0:31:11.240 --> 0:31:14.840
<v Speaker 11>in London. But so I guess there's there is and

0:31:15.120 --> 0:31:17.520
<v Speaker 11>it's over in East London. I guess sort of a

0:31:17.520 --> 0:31:20.560
<v Speaker 11>more working class, working class kind of area. But uh,

0:31:21.080 --> 0:31:22.640
<v Speaker 11>you know that that's a good question. Like where would

0:31:22.680 --> 0:31:24.280
<v Speaker 11>you build it in New York and Manhattan? I have

0:31:24.280 --> 0:31:25.080
<v Speaker 11>no idea.

0:31:25.240 --> 0:31:30.960
<v Speaker 2>Jersey probably American dream All.

0:31:32.080 --> 0:31:36.640
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, yeah, I would go check this out, like I

0:31:37.360 --> 0:31:39.920
<v Speaker 12>was gonna. It does seem like like one of those things.

0:31:39.920 --> 0:31:42.080
<v Speaker 12>If you're if you're a fan of YouTube, you will

0:31:42.080 --> 0:31:42.920
<v Speaker 12>go to Vegas and.

0:31:42.880 --> 0:31:43.440
<v Speaker 3>You will watch that.

0:31:43.600 --> 0:31:45.479
<v Speaker 2>It sounds like Devin, and you will need to actually

0:31:45.480 --> 0:31:46.600
<v Speaker 2>do that because you did.

0:31:46.680 --> 0:31:49.040
<v Speaker 11>You go ahead, Well we'll see no, sorry, well that's

0:31:49.080 --> 0:31:50.680
<v Speaker 11>what cut out. What's a good cut out of the story.

0:31:50.760 --> 0:31:53.000
<v Speaker 11>I interviewed all these YouTube fans including this one guy

0:31:53.040 --> 0:31:54.920
<v Speaker 11>who'd been who've seen them already more than one hundred

0:31:54.960 --> 0:31:55.520
<v Speaker 11>and fifty times.

0:31:55.520 --> 0:31:57.000
<v Speaker 3>He was going something like ten shows.

0:31:57.440 --> 0:31:59.200
<v Speaker 11>Ten shows in Vegas are a couple of guys.

0:31:59.360 --> 0:31:59.920
<v Speaker 3>Guys like that.

0:32:01.160 --> 0:32:03.360
<v Speaker 11>They were great, but there was just so much build

0:32:03.360 --> 0:32:04.320
<v Speaker 11>a room for so much stuff.

0:32:04.560 --> 0:32:05.640
<v Speaker 4>Why are the tickets so cheap?

0:32:06.560 --> 0:32:08.840
<v Speaker 3>Well? Will they remain? That will be the question, right,

0:32:08.840 --> 0:32:09.320
<v Speaker 3>we'll see.

0:32:09.360 --> 0:32:12.560
<v Speaker 12>I mean like, look like this is I think like

0:32:12.680 --> 0:32:14.960
<v Speaker 12>it's a new thing, and you know, we'll see.

0:32:14.800 --> 0:32:17.240
<v Speaker 3>What the think pricing, dynamic dynamic pricing does.

0:32:17.360 --> 0:32:18.880
<v Speaker 2>Yet I think it costs like one hundred twenty five

0:32:18.920 --> 0:32:21.040
<v Speaker 2>bucks to go to the Imax SA movie these days.

0:32:21.040 --> 0:32:24.240
<v Speaker 12>Well, you know, Imax briefly comes up in the story

0:32:24.240 --> 0:32:26.560
<v Speaker 12>because you know this is such a unique venue that

0:32:26.600 --> 0:32:29.000
<v Speaker 12>you can't even put Imax films there. Well maybe they can,

0:32:29.120 --> 0:32:30.360
<v Speaker 12>but not to start with.

0:32:30.440 --> 0:32:32.000
<v Speaker 11>Well no, but the idea is, you know, to blow

0:32:32.000 --> 0:32:33.840
<v Speaker 11>I'm blow you know, Imax theaters away.

0:32:34.000 --> 0:32:37.600
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, yeah, And I love that they're playing this right now.

0:32:37.840 --> 0:32:40.880
<v Speaker 2>There we go give it to us very good stuff,

0:32:40.960 --> 0:32:43.400
<v Speaker 2>of course, As always from our team here at Bloomberg

0:32:43.440 --> 0:32:46.080
<v Speaker 2>Business Week, a big thank you to Devin Leonard. He

0:32:46.560 --> 0:32:49.680
<v Speaker 2>is with us from Bloomberg BusinessWeek magazine. It's featured in

0:32:49.720 --> 0:32:52.479
<v Speaker 2>the upcoming issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, available Bloomberg dot com

0:32:52.480 --> 0:33:02.760
<v Speaker 2>slash BusinessWeek and thanks as always to Joe Webbermarck.

0:33:00.720 --> 0:33:01.440
<v Speaker 3>A journal.

0:33:02.480 --> 0:33:03.440
<v Speaker 6>How about you let me drive?

0:33:03.960 --> 0:33:06.200
<v Speaker 3>No no, no, no please going to drive home?

0:33:06.800 --> 0:33:10.320
<v Speaker 1>Honey please, I'll do the driving gravels Let's mate, I

0:33:10.400 --> 0:33:10.960
<v Speaker 1>want to try it.

0:33:13.240 --> 0:33:15.120
<v Speaker 2>It's good question time.

0:33:17.920 --> 0:33:21.120
<v Speaker 3>This is the drive to the Globe dot Com trim thing.

0:33:21.280 --> 0:33:21.960
<v Speaker 3>We'll dry around.

0:33:22.120 --> 0:33:22.600
<v Speaker 11>Should it on?

0:33:23.120 --> 0:33:27.200
<v Speaker 8>On Bloomberg Radio, Jasmin and Tim Stenovik here at the

0:33:27.200 --> 0:33:32.160
<v Speaker 8>Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio now, with just twenty minutes under

0:33:32.240 --> 0:33:35.719
<v Speaker 8>that to go before the closing bell. US socks did

0:33:35.800 --> 0:33:37.760
<v Speaker 8>lose ground a day after oil prices climbed to their

0:33:37.840 --> 0:33:40.440
<v Speaker 8>highest level of the year. We did talk about Apple

0:33:40.520 --> 0:33:42.960
<v Speaker 8>earlier tim Those shares down more than two percent after

0:33:43.000 --> 0:33:46.520
<v Speaker 8>its iPhone fifteen event, while Oracles headed for its worst

0:33:46.640 --> 0:33:50.000
<v Speaker 8>day over two decades after posting revenue and sales guidance

0:33:50.080 --> 0:33:52.400
<v Speaker 8>that was weaker than analysts had expected.

0:33:52.520 --> 0:33:53.720
<v Speaker 7>So big move there.

0:33:53.800 --> 0:33:55.959
<v Speaker 8>So that's why you're seeing energy higher and then more

0:33:55.960 --> 0:33:57.960
<v Speaker 8>of these growth rounded companies and.

0:33:58.080 --> 0:33:59.480
<v Speaker 7>Corners and sectors of the market.

0:33:59.560 --> 0:34:02.280
<v Speaker 8>Lower. Joining us now to weigh in on all things

0:34:02.400 --> 0:34:06.080
<v Speaker 8>markets is Katherine Krantz, chief executive officer at the Center

0:34:06.200 --> 0:34:10.080
<v Speaker 8>for the Macro Specialist Designation. I wanted to start off, Catherine,

0:34:10.320 --> 0:34:13.560
<v Speaker 8>to tell us about your firm and what it is

0:34:13.880 --> 0:34:16.520
<v Speaker 8>that you do, because it's really interesting too. This is

0:34:16.560 --> 0:34:19.919
<v Speaker 8>supposed to be basically a designation that is more complimentary

0:34:20.480 --> 0:34:21.440
<v Speaker 8>to a CFA.

0:34:21.880 --> 0:34:22.200
<v Speaker 7>Correct.

0:34:22.239 --> 0:34:22.759
<v Speaker 14>Thanks, Jess.

0:34:23.120 --> 0:34:23.840
<v Speaker 7>Absolutely, so.

0:34:24.480 --> 0:34:28.000
<v Speaker 14>Our firm is focused on all things macro. So we

0:34:28.200 --> 0:34:32.040
<v Speaker 14>have basically three ways that we interact with our clients.

0:34:32.480 --> 0:34:36.319
<v Speaker 14>We have a traditional sell side research product with our

0:34:36.400 --> 0:34:40.200
<v Speaker 14>founder Franz jatra Han. He has been a macro leader

0:34:40.360 --> 0:34:44.279
<v Speaker 14>for decades, and so we sell that product to our

0:34:44.320 --> 0:34:49.000
<v Speaker 14>institutional clients. Last year we started the Macro Specialist designation

0:34:49.280 --> 0:34:52.719
<v Speaker 14>because we became aware that it's not something Macro is

0:34:52.760 --> 0:34:54.520
<v Speaker 14>not something that's really taught anywhere.

0:34:54.680 --> 0:34:56.000
<v Speaker 7>It's not the same.

0:34:57.239 --> 0:34:59.279
<v Speaker 14>Macro investing, is not the same as what you learn

0:34:59.360 --> 0:35:03.640
<v Speaker 14>in a macro economics curriculum in college, and it's really

0:35:03.760 --> 0:35:07.160
<v Speaker 14>not something that's part of other designations. It's something that

0:35:07.280 --> 0:35:09.840
<v Speaker 14>you tend to learn getting beaten up by the cycle

0:35:10.120 --> 0:35:10.759
<v Speaker 14>year after year.

0:35:10.920 --> 0:35:12.280
<v Speaker 7>So say tomorrow eight.

0:35:12.280 --> 0:35:14.360
<v Speaker 8>Thirty am, Tim and I were talking about this earlier

0:35:14.600 --> 0:35:16.920
<v Speaker 8>CPI report comes out. This is different than if you're

0:35:17.000 --> 0:35:19.120
<v Speaker 8>just reading some of these macro data points that are

0:35:19.120 --> 0:35:20.000
<v Speaker 8>coming out each morning.

0:35:20.360 --> 0:35:23.640
<v Speaker 14>Oh yes, it's different. So basically we teach our framework,

0:35:23.719 --> 0:35:28.160
<v Speaker 14>which is rooted in monetary policy. Obviously the FEDS moves

0:35:28.280 --> 0:35:31.000
<v Speaker 14>and how that impacts interest rates, and we look at

0:35:31.120 --> 0:35:36.200
<v Speaker 14>how interst rates basically lead leading indicators like the stock

0:35:36.320 --> 0:35:39.600
<v Speaker 14>market with about an eighteen month lag time, and then

0:35:40.200 --> 0:35:42.359
<v Speaker 14>that helps us by looking at where interest rates have gone.

0:35:42.400 --> 0:35:45.120
<v Speaker 14>That helps us anticipate the direction of the market and

0:35:45.239 --> 0:35:49.160
<v Speaker 14>then obviously internally which segments of the market will outperform.

0:35:49.640 --> 0:35:53.560
<v Speaker 2>Okay, so given that your CEO at the Center for

0:35:53.680 --> 0:35:57.040
<v Speaker 2>Macro Specialist designation, where are we right now and where

0:35:57.040 --> 0:35:57.480
<v Speaker 2>are we going?

0:35:57.600 --> 0:35:58.040
<v Speaker 1>What do you like?

0:35:59.160 --> 0:36:02.720
<v Speaker 14>Unfortunately, we do not have a very rosy outlook. Something

0:36:02.760 --> 0:36:05.919
<v Speaker 14>that we hear continually these days is that the lead

0:36:06.000 --> 0:36:09.880
<v Speaker 14>and lag times of policy's impact on markets has changed

0:36:09.960 --> 0:36:10.680
<v Speaker 14>just different.

0:36:10.480 --> 0:36:12.400
<v Speaker 4>This time, so it's longer and more variable.

0:36:12.840 --> 0:36:16.239
<v Speaker 7>Well, people are saying it shorter and we're over any pain.

0:36:16.400 --> 0:36:18.960
<v Speaker 14>We disagree. We don't see any evidence that it's different.

0:36:19.280 --> 0:36:22.000
<v Speaker 14>We are just now coming up to the eighteen month

0:36:22.040 --> 0:36:24.840
<v Speaker 14>anniversary of the first FED rate hike of this cycle,

0:36:25.360 --> 0:36:30.360
<v Speaker 14>and it has been the steepest, quickest tightening cycle since

0:36:31.120 --> 0:36:34.520
<v Speaker 14>basically Paul Voker's day is at the FED. So add

0:36:34.600 --> 0:36:37.719
<v Speaker 14>into that the already tightening of lending standards you've had

0:36:37.880 --> 0:36:40.319
<v Speaker 14>due to the banking crisis, and there's a whole lot

0:36:40.400 --> 0:36:42.600
<v Speaker 14>of tightening in the pipeline that we don't think has

0:36:42.680 --> 0:36:43.480
<v Speaker 14>been priced in yet.

0:36:43.719 --> 0:36:46.719
<v Speaker 8>What pockets within the economy raise some red flags to

0:36:46.800 --> 0:36:49.160
<v Speaker 8>you at this point when you do have data, say,

0:36:49.239 --> 0:36:52.000
<v Speaker 8>obviously GDP is backward looking, but when you're looking at that,

0:36:52.120 --> 0:36:54.080
<v Speaker 8>I know, we'll have another reading of retail sales later

0:36:54.160 --> 0:36:56.600
<v Speaker 8>this week, but some of this consumer spending data has

0:36:56.640 --> 0:36:57.319
<v Speaker 8>still held up.

0:36:57.400 --> 0:36:59.279
<v Speaker 7>So where's the weakness coming from.

0:36:59.560 --> 0:37:01.839
<v Speaker 14>Yeah, we're not surprised by that. Like I said, we're

0:37:01.880 --> 0:37:04.759
<v Speaker 14>really just getting to the point where the impact of

0:37:04.920 --> 0:37:08.880
<v Speaker 14>tightening is going to start flowing through to the economy eventually.

0:37:09.160 --> 0:37:11.480
<v Speaker 14>In stocks in general, you know, we keep a close

0:37:11.560 --> 0:37:16.279
<v Speaker 14>eye on on earnings. It's basically when earnings growth goes

0:37:16.440 --> 0:37:18.480
<v Speaker 14>negative that things start to get really bad. So we

0:37:18.640 --> 0:37:22.080
<v Speaker 14>monitor earnings across all segments of the market. You know,

0:37:22.200 --> 0:37:27.560
<v Speaker 14>we've seen the ism manufacturing survey is already in contraction territory. Uh,

0:37:27.800 --> 0:37:30.360
<v Speaker 14>So you know, we think that things are going to

0:37:30.440 --> 0:37:34.000
<v Speaker 14>deteriorate from here. As I mentioned earlier, obviously the tighter

0:37:34.239 --> 0:37:36.880
<v Speaker 14>UH credit standards, which is not something that usually happens

0:37:36.960 --> 0:37:39.600
<v Speaker 14>until you're much further along into a slowdown. And so

0:37:40.040 --> 0:37:42.520
<v Speaker 14>the fact that that's already tightened so much is it's

0:37:42.640 --> 0:37:45.200
<v Speaker 14>very concerning to us. So you know, we're really looking

0:37:45.320 --> 0:37:51.040
<v Speaker 14>towards everything defensive. You know, what outperforms is UH boring

0:37:51.160 --> 0:37:54.160
<v Speaker 14>things like staples and and and you know, the things

0:37:54.200 --> 0:37:56.240
<v Speaker 14>that have more stable earnings profiles.

0:37:56.000 --> 0:38:01.840
<v Speaker 2>So staples, you know, other defenses. Defensives what changes your

0:38:01.880 --> 0:38:04.279
<v Speaker 2>mind and makes you more optimistic, Like what would you

0:38:04.360 --> 0:38:05.960
<v Speaker 2>have to see over the next few months to say,

0:38:06.000 --> 0:38:08.239
<v Speaker 2>wait a second, we actually have the worst of this

0:38:08.360 --> 0:38:08.959
<v Speaker 2>behind us.

0:38:09.520 --> 0:38:12.399
<v Speaker 14>You know, I mean, based on our framework, there's really

0:38:12.440 --> 0:38:15.440
<v Speaker 14>almost nothing that could change. I mean, we feel like

0:38:16.000 --> 0:38:18.000
<v Speaker 14>all the tightening is already baked in the cake.

0:38:18.560 --> 0:38:21.640
<v Speaker 4>It's there so baked in the cake. But you said

0:38:21.680 --> 0:38:22.759
<v Speaker 4>that then the it hasn't been.

0:38:22.719 --> 0:38:25.279
<v Speaker 14>Priced in, right, But I'm saying that you can't undo it.

0:38:25.440 --> 0:38:27.840
<v Speaker 14>So even if even if the FED were to suddenly

0:38:27.920 --> 0:38:31.320
<v Speaker 14>pivot in lower rates. It then will take another eighteen

0:38:31.400 --> 0:38:34.640
<v Speaker 14>months for that to feed through, So we don't see

0:38:34.640 --> 0:38:36.080
<v Speaker 14>a way out of this. We think it's going to

0:38:36.120 --> 0:38:37.480
<v Speaker 14>be a tough year.

0:38:37.640 --> 0:38:40.399
<v Speaker 8>How much longer do you think it'll really be able

0:38:40.480 --> 0:38:42.600
<v Speaker 8>to tell in the economy from the full effects from

0:38:42.600 --> 0:38:45.040
<v Speaker 8>the last eighteen months and the eleven rate hikes that

0:38:45.080 --> 0:38:47.440
<v Speaker 8>we have seen since March twenty twenty two. Yeah, Well,

0:38:48.200 --> 0:38:50.279
<v Speaker 8>we think this is going to be a story that

0:38:50.480 --> 0:38:53.719
<v Speaker 8>covers really most of twenty twenty four because, as we said,

0:38:53.719 --> 0:38:57.520
<v Speaker 8>it's been the steepest, most intense tightening cycle, and so

0:38:58.200 --> 0:39:00.000
<v Speaker 8>given that we're only coming up on the eighteen months

0:39:00.000 --> 0:39:02.440
<v Speaker 8>anniversary of the first hike, we still have to we

0:39:02.560 --> 0:39:04.320
<v Speaker 8>have a long tail to price s and so we

0:39:04.400 --> 0:39:06.560
<v Speaker 8>think that's going to take some time to play out.

0:39:06.760 --> 0:39:08.279
<v Speaker 8>What do you think are some of the risks to

0:39:08.440 --> 0:39:10.880
<v Speaker 8>your case for the economy to the flip side of

0:39:10.920 --> 0:39:11.440
<v Speaker 8>that argument.

0:39:11.680 --> 0:39:15.799
<v Speaker 14>Yeah, I mean, look, we don't really like to ever

0:39:15.920 --> 0:39:17.879
<v Speaker 14>say it's different this time. You know, we do stick

0:39:17.920 --> 0:39:20.720
<v Speaker 14>to the framework, but you know, there's always a chance

0:39:20.840 --> 0:39:24.680
<v Speaker 14>that things could could evolve and change. We don't think

0:39:24.760 --> 0:39:29.439
<v Speaker 14>it's likely. We you know, we've had a recession every

0:39:29.560 --> 0:39:34.719
<v Speaker 14>time CPI has been above five percent. We've had a

0:39:34.840 --> 0:39:38.160
<v Speaker 14>recession in ten of thirteen of the past FED tightening cycles,

0:39:38.200 --> 0:39:41.680
<v Speaker 14>and Sharon Powell pointed to some of those instances where

0:39:41.719 --> 0:39:44.399
<v Speaker 14>there was not a recession, but in none of those

0:39:44.600 --> 0:39:46.560
<v Speaker 14>instances did we have an inflation problem.

0:39:47.160 --> 0:39:49.480
<v Speaker 2>Did you know you're focused on the macro, you're focused

0:39:49.520 --> 0:39:53.440
<v Speaker 2>on inflation, but you've talked about the tightening cycle and

0:39:53.560 --> 0:39:57.080
<v Speaker 2>where we are with the Federal Reserve. Do you think

0:39:57.080 --> 0:39:59.680
<v Speaker 2>the S and P five hundred has hit its low

0:39:59.760 --> 0:40:01.400
<v Speaker 2>for this cycle that was about a year ago, back

0:40:01.440 --> 0:40:03.799
<v Speaker 2>in October, or do you think there's more to come?

0:40:04.239 --> 0:40:07.920
<v Speaker 14>No, No, we think there's more to come. And it's funny,

0:40:08.040 --> 0:40:12.200
<v Speaker 14>you know you mentioned last fall and at that point

0:40:12.480 --> 0:40:16.080
<v Speaker 14>our framework was telling us that basically because of Chairman

0:40:16.080 --> 0:40:19.680
<v Speaker 14>Paul's comments about inflation being transitory, we saw about a

0:40:19.719 --> 0:40:22.359
<v Speaker 14>four or five month dip in interest rates which ended

0:40:22.440 --> 0:40:25.240
<v Speaker 14>up feeding through. So we said, if our framework holds,

0:40:25.280 --> 0:40:28.799
<v Speaker 14>which it usually does, we should see a bear market

0:40:28.920 --> 0:40:31.160
<v Speaker 14>rally happen. And so I was just looking back at

0:40:31.200 --> 0:40:33.560
<v Speaker 14>some of our research from that time last year, and

0:40:33.760 --> 0:40:36.200
<v Speaker 14>we were writing about how we couldn't convince anybody to

0:40:36.280 --> 0:40:39.279
<v Speaker 14>be bullish, and now it's completely flipped on its head.

0:40:39.400 --> 0:40:41.200
<v Speaker 14>So we have had that rally. It's been a little

0:40:41.239 --> 0:40:44.160
<v Speaker 14>bit longer than we anticipated, but we think that's kind

0:40:44.160 --> 0:40:45.279
<v Speaker 14>of running out.

0:40:45.360 --> 0:40:47.400
<v Speaker 8>I really have about twenty seconds left. But is there

0:40:47.440 --> 0:40:49.640
<v Speaker 8>a danger though, of missing out on it? Since almost

0:40:49.719 --> 0:40:51.879
<v Speaker 8>been a year there if you missed that rally.

0:40:53.200 --> 0:40:55.880
<v Speaker 14>Yeah, I mean we're advising people to get more defensive

0:40:55.960 --> 0:40:58.400
<v Speaker 14>and little you know, protect their portfolios and take this

0:40:58.600 --> 0:41:02.440
<v Speaker 14>chance to really realign for what we think could be

0:41:03.000 --> 0:41:03.800
<v Speaker 14>a tough recession.

0:41:04.680 --> 0:41:08.480
<v Speaker 8>All right, Kathin Krantz, chief executive officer at the Center

0:41:08.560 --> 0:41:10.560
<v Speaker 8>for the Macro Specialist Designation.

0:41:10.800 --> 0:41:13.520
<v Speaker 7>Really interesting thoughts here for you to give to us today.

0:41:14.160 --> 0:41:14.759
<v Speaker 14>This is the.

0:41:14.800 --> 0:41:18.759
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week podcast. All Avail Little on Apple, Spotify,

0:41:18.960 --> 0:41:22.640
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0:41:22.640 --> 0:41:26.120
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0:41:26.320 --> 0:41:29.600
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0:41:29.719 --> 0:41:32.640
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