WEBVTT - SHARP NFL Week 7 Bets: 49ers-Falcons, Bucs-Panthers and more

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part

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<v Speaker 1>of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that

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<v Speaker 1>makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.

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<v Speaker 1>I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always by my co-host,

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<v Speaker 1>my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

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<v Speaker 2>Chad, how we doing?

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<v Speaker 1>Brother, I apologize for my orange complexion, and what will

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<v Speaker 1>no doubt be massive amount of honking. I'm recording from

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<v Speaker 1>our New York studio today, also known as my mother-in-law's

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<v Speaker 1>apartment on the Upper East Side. I apologize to you

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<v Speaker 1>and all of our listeners. This is our Thursday NFL

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<v Speaker 1>Week 7 show. We're going to do some sharp calls.

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to do some brass balls, underdog and favorites

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<v Speaker 1>around Robbins. Diamond's biggest bet, sharp versus square. All the

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<v Speaker 1>Discord groupers you can handle. We will narrow down, start

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<v Speaker 1>to narrow down to our final five picks for the

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<v Speaker 1>free $ 25, 000 pro football pick'em contest. Sharp or square, dot

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<v Speaker 1>the volume. What is that? Still totally free to enter.

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<v Speaker 1>Sharp or square, dot the volume, dot contest. For those

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<v Speaker 1>who are already in the contest, now that our fifth

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<v Speaker 1>week of the contest is done, everyone's lowest score has

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<v Speaker 1>been dropped. We've updated the scores and standings to race

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<v Speaker 1>to the finish. Good luck to everybody playing. Simon, briefly

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<v Speaker 1>on Tuesday, we had some questions from the Discord and

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<v Speaker 1>you had a lot of questions coming in through your

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<v Speaker 1>DMs about futures.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm from the future.

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<v Speaker 1>Then tell me, future boy.

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<v Speaker 2>What kind of a future do you call that?

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<v Speaker 1>The Packers have been a particularly hot topic for adjusting

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<v Speaker 1>for futures with the idea that Josh Jacobs is coming back.

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<v Speaker 1>Micah Parsons will be coming back eventually. Is it a

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<v Speaker 1>good time to capture a team that's on the rise

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<v Speaker 1>while the odds are still in our favor, them or

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<v Speaker 1>anybody else?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I definitely, as soon as we talked about it,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, everyone's right. We should be taking positions on

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<v Speaker 2>these teams that we like, especially where, you know, NFC,

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<v Speaker 2>it's fair to say it's wide open.

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<v Speaker 1>Wide open.

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<v Speaker 2>You can make excuses for your team, say why they're

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<v Speaker 2>the best, and you can also look at your team

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<v Speaker 2>with an honest opinion and be like, wow, we have

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<v Speaker 2>a bunch of glaring weaknesses. So, yeah, one-third into this season–

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<v Speaker 2>we talk all the time. You don't, it doesn't really

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<v Speaker 2>matter for the best team in September, October. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>neither of us could tell you where the best teams

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<v Speaker 2>were last year in September, October, but it also sets

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<v Speaker 2>the tone for your season. So it's not, you're trying

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<v Speaker 2>to underrate it either, but yeah, obviously teams like the

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<v Speaker 2>Vikings six and oh, I think we both don't want

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<v Speaker 2>to overrate them too much. I don't know about you.

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<v Speaker 2>I'd not run into the window to Benny's Superbowl futures.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know if you are. That's what I mean

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<v Speaker 2>by this. So it's, we're trying to navigate how we

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<v Speaker 2>view it going forward. And I'm definitely of the mentality of, okay,

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<v Speaker 2>I really like Minnesota. I don't know how much I

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<v Speaker 2>want to invest in their future market where I've already

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<v Speaker 2>bet them in the summer. I don't know how much

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<v Speaker 2>I believe them to actually win it all. Where Green Bay,

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<v Speaker 2>your team, you just talked about, I do believe in them, right?

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<v Speaker 2>If they get Parsons back, their biggest weakness will just

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<v Speaker 2>be that offensive line. And, you know, can they overcome

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<v Speaker 2>that in December, January? It's hard to say where, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>if they have to go to Seattle, that would be

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<v Speaker 2>the one team that could truly ruin Green Bay's Super

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<v Speaker 2>Bowl futures. Every other team, I don't know about you,

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<v Speaker 2>even Minnesota, it's like I could– because it's divisionally, I

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<v Speaker 2>don't know how much that matters, how bad their offensive

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<v Speaker 2>line is. So right now, if you want to take

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<v Speaker 2>the Packers to beat the Chiefs, you can shop around, obviously. It's,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, you are getting crazy odds. So Chiefs to

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<v Speaker 2>beat the Packers is– basically 101 if you want to

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<v Speaker 2>if you want to take that bet right now which

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<v Speaker 2>i think is really good value like i said i

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<v Speaker 2>think when parsons comes back who knows what he's going

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<v Speaker 2>to be but if he does come back to this

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<v Speaker 2>defense that's a huge deal you saw last year how

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<v Speaker 2>incredible that green bay's defense was when parsons on the

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<v Speaker 2>field on the flip side if you want to bet

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<v Speaker 2>uh the packers to beat the chiefs it's it's even

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<v Speaker 2>better obviously it's 110 110 to 1 odds to bet

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<v Speaker 2>the packers to beat the chiefs so Two really, to me,

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<v Speaker 2>great value, easy bets. If I'm going to keep piggybacking

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<v Speaker 2>off of that Green Bay futures that I'm making, you

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<v Speaker 2>can get Golden, who, you know, right now he's fighting

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<v Speaker 2>Watson for receptions right now on the Green Bay Packers.

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<v Speaker 2>We've seen Watson be the type of guy that misses games,

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<v Speaker 2>tends to miss games, right? And Golden was their first-round

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<v Speaker 2>pick Green Bay not even a year ago. He right

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<v Speaker 2>now is tied with Watson for receiving. I think they

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<v Speaker 2>both have almost 500 yards receiving. You can get Golden

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<v Speaker 2>at 40 to 1. to lead the league in receiving yards.

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<v Speaker 2>So right now, Jason's way ahead of everyone. Jason's like

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<v Speaker 2>200 yards ahead of the next closest person, I think,

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<v Speaker 2>or 150 yards. Golden, though, is only 200 yards basically

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<v Speaker 2>behind him, which sounds like a lot, but it's also

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<v Speaker 2>one of these things where I feel like the year

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<v Speaker 2>goes along. We've talked about it. I feel like Seattle

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<v Speaker 2>is going to have to become more run-focused. They can't

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<v Speaker 2>keep letting Sam Darnold sling the ball. On the flip side,

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<v Speaker 2>like I talked about, where Golden– I think he'll become

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<v Speaker 2>really their number one guy if Watson has any type

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<v Speaker 2>of state injury for Green Bay. So that was just

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<v Speaker 2>another market I played. Same state in that division. KOC

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<v Speaker 2>right now is plus 650 to be coach of the year.

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<v Speaker 2>And that one jumped out to me. I know it's

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<v Speaker 2>always about the new toy, and it's easy to reflect

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<v Speaker 2>that in the betting market, right, where these new coaches

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<v Speaker 2>usually get the bumps that, you know, Todd Munkin, if

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<v Speaker 2>you mix up Browns as a playoff team, Todd Monk

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<v Speaker 2>is a new coach this year, probably going to lean

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<v Speaker 2>towards him. So he's right now is like the odds

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<v Speaker 2>on favorite V coach of the year. But KFC is

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<v Speaker 2>undefeated on another year with a new quarterback. It's hard

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<v Speaker 2>not to put a lot of respect on what he's

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<v Speaker 2>held together with that Vikings team. And what we view

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<v Speaker 2>as one of the tougher divisions of football right now

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<v Speaker 2>and the NFC North. So I just, I couldn't believe

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<v Speaker 2>it was plus 650 plus 700, a bunch of different shops.

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<v Speaker 2>That one also jumped up to me right away of, okay,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm missing something on the futures market. Cause I didn't

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<v Speaker 2>really understand that one where Shanahan's plus three 50 to

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<v Speaker 2>be the coach of the year. Once again, makes sense, right?

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<v Speaker 2>Tons of injuries also undefeated right after he was a

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<v Speaker 2>Munkin and then it's Ben Johnson. So all those guys,

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<v Speaker 2>it feels like interchangeable that if, you know, KOC wins

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<v Speaker 2>the division and as the one seed with the Vikings,

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<v Speaker 2>that feels like a really good value to take him

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<v Speaker 2>at plus 600 plus 700 right now. So, I wish

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<v Speaker 2>I had more futures, but I was just looking into it.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't want to tie people's money up too much

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<v Speaker 2>because I already have so much tied up from the summer.

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<v Speaker 2>Super Bowl-wise, I'm having a tough time with it, people. Honestly,

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<v Speaker 2>I look at the AFC and the NFC and it's

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<v Speaker 2>just like, AFC, if it's not the Chiefs, who? Every

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<v Speaker 2>team has weaknesses. Am I really going to bank that

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<v Speaker 2>this is the final of the year? Josh Allen with

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<v Speaker 2>no defense can overcome Mahomes. Is this really the year

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<v Speaker 2>that you know, we've seen it time and time again,

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<v Speaker 2>this Rams team, can they turn it around? I don't know.

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<v Speaker 2>I'd rather have faith in the 49ers in Seattle, which

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<v Speaker 2>I've already invested in. So to me, I wish I

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<v Speaker 2>had more to give out people. I just, I'm looking

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<v Speaker 2>at the futures market and it's just, there's nothing in

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<v Speaker 2>the NFC that's really enticing me other than Green Bay

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<v Speaker 2>right now.

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<v Speaker 1>All right. I don't disagree at all. Green Bay has

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<v Speaker 1>really been the pivot point, I think. In these conversations,

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<v Speaker 1>the third end of the season, how do you manage

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<v Speaker 1>Green Bay? Is it on their futures? Is it on matchups?

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<v Speaker 1>You and I love matchups. We love exact outcome bets.

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<v Speaker 1>We made a ton of them. Green Bay was one

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<v Speaker 1>of the teams we just didn't invest in. So time

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<v Speaker 1>to take a little taste. Just add it to the portfolio.

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<v Speaker 1>Why not? We're building a portfolio here. Listen, every week

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<v Speaker 1>we discuss our picks on Tuesday. Every week by Thursday,

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<v Speaker 1>Simon has gotten an earful from his professional betting colleagues,

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<v Speaker 1>what they like, what they hate, where they think I'm

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<v Speaker 1>totally right. Are they going to bully us? It's time

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<v Speaker 1>for Shark Calls.

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<v Speaker 2>Who's there? I'm talking. Yeah, a lot to love this week, Chad.

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<v Speaker 2>I feel like we got plenty of love for our

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<v Speaker 2>Falcons take, right? Falcons plus three and a half.

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<v Speaker 1>Definitely. That number has flown like a falcon.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. And that's not just because obviously our show Huge,

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<v Speaker 2>huge amount of listeners betting this number, but just different

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<v Speaker 2>pro groups I talked to hammering this one. Same goes

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<v Speaker 2>for our love with the Bucs, right? The Bucs were

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<v Speaker 2>plus three and a half, another line that's just been

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<v Speaker 2>getting absolutely hammered. So those two jumped out right away.

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<v Speaker 2>I got a bunch of love, a bunch of phone

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<v Speaker 2>calls about that one. Another game we love, Miami Jets.

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<v Speaker 2>Tons of love on Miami. Tons of love on a

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<v Speaker 2>game we gave out that the numbers moved. I think

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<v Speaker 2>it more has to do with Lamar being hurt, but

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<v Speaker 2>we love Cincy. It was kind of easy, bended at

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<v Speaker 2>plus three. Still could have got it at plus two.

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<v Speaker 2>Now it's flipped to minus one and a half. That's

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<v Speaker 2>another one where even if Lamar was back, it felt

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<v Speaker 2>like it was still a little too high for a

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<v Speaker 2>guy coming off an injury that, you know, hamstrings, whatever

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<v Speaker 2>it is going on with Lamar, he needs to use

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<v Speaker 2>his legs. So got plenty of calls about that, that

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<v Speaker 2>we should have been not hammering that one harder, but

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<v Speaker 2>we should have been more aggressive, giving that one out

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<v Speaker 2>at plus two and a half. But I said, bet

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<v Speaker 2>this number. We have no idea if Lamar is going

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<v Speaker 2>to play. So I don't know much more we could

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<v Speaker 2>have done with that one. um for your for games

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<v Speaker 2>that we didn't really talk much about green bay i've

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<v Speaker 2>heard a bunch of calls about guys loving green bay

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<v Speaker 2>against detroit which a divisional game plus three i get

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<v Speaker 2>it i totally get it where you've seen green bay's

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<v Speaker 2>defense look really good on the flip side you've seen

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<v Speaker 2>nothing nothing from detroit to think they can get stopped

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<v Speaker 2>so um Yeah, that's an interesting game just because it

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<v Speaker 2>is a Detroit team that, you know, I just don't

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<v Speaker 2>think pros are buying right now. We're on the flip

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<v Speaker 2>side of Green Bay. They've been really good, the professional bettors.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, every week, the pros have been betting them,

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<v Speaker 2>and for the most part, they've been cashing them for them.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's a game maybe I have a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>of a blind spot to. I really haven't thought much

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<v Speaker 2>about it. Denver, tons of calls from pros about Denver.

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<v Speaker 2>Another game I don't really see. Another game I don't

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<v Speaker 2>really love that if I can avoid, I will. I think...

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<v Speaker 2>a game we've both agreed that we don't really understand that.

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<v Speaker 2>I know a lot of pros love is Tennessee against

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<v Speaker 2>the Browns. It's just pretty much a fade on this

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<v Speaker 2>Browns team. That's been super consistent, but they wouldn't have

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<v Speaker 2>fourth quarters where to me, isn't that the cheat code

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<v Speaker 2>with the Browns? It's so that's when I don't really

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<v Speaker 2>get why the pros are hammering that one so much.

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<v Speaker 2>It's actually, we even talked about everything going on in

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<v Speaker 2>Tennessee locker room. I mean, there's just so much drama. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>We can dive more into that one, but, um, bunch

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<v Speaker 2>of hate that we didn't really they're like you guys

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<v Speaker 2>should know better you should be all in on that

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<v Speaker 2>one it's just like should we or is that just

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<v Speaker 2>another pro trap Houston another game or a little lukewarm

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<v Speaker 2>on tons of calls about that it was nine and

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<v Speaker 2>a half JJ McCarthy has announced as a starter ran

0:11:30.179 --> 0:11:32.620
<v Speaker 2>up to ten and a half now so another game

0:11:32.660 --> 0:11:34.699
<v Speaker 2>I don't have to deal with where every instinct in

0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:36.900
<v Speaker 2>my body is telling me to hammer this Giants team

0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:39.190
<v Speaker 2>plus ten and a half and I'm trying not to

0:11:39.210 --> 0:11:41.050
<v Speaker 2>because I think we know when these pros are calling

0:11:41.070 --> 0:11:43.850
<v Speaker 2>about it it's usually a trap line and you know

0:11:43.870 --> 0:11:46.860
<v Speaker 2>the last one the the biggest talk of the town,

0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:50.760
<v Speaker 2>the Seattle Kansas city game, Chad, and we're the suckers. We're,

0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:54.170
<v Speaker 2>we're the public. We're over the chiefs and I'm even

0:11:54.190 --> 0:11:56.130
<v Speaker 2>more dug in than I ever been before. So this

0:11:56.190 --> 0:11:58.510
<v Speaker 2>is totally, this is totally a game where I, I,

0:11:58.630 --> 0:12:00.349
<v Speaker 2>I'm getting tons of hate, tons of calls about it.

0:12:00.350 --> 0:12:02.250
<v Speaker 2>And I'm, I'm excited for us to break down much

0:12:02.309 --> 0:12:05.829
<v Speaker 2>more because it's very small amount of groups like me

0:12:06.250 --> 0:12:08.459
<v Speaker 2>on the chiefs and a lot of really heavily smart

0:12:08.500 --> 0:12:13.120
<v Speaker 2>groups influenced taking the Seattle side. So, um, I'm excited

0:12:13.130 --> 0:12:14.740
<v Speaker 2>to dive more into that one because it's so much

0:12:14.820 --> 0:12:18.339
<v Speaker 2>lazy talk of you're really going to bet Seattle to

0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:20.580
<v Speaker 2>go lose three straight games and Seattle's defense will lose

0:12:20.620 --> 0:12:22.800
<v Speaker 2>at home. So, yeah, I'm excited to talk more about

0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:23.179
<v Speaker 2>that game.

0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:25.480
<v Speaker 1>I cannot wait to talk about that game. I think

0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:27.819
<v Speaker 1>it's the pivot game on the board, to be honest.

0:12:27.860 --> 0:12:30.180
<v Speaker 1>And I love when you and I are aligned and

0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:35.480
<v Speaker 1>we happen to be aligned against the entire professional betting community.

0:12:37.660 --> 0:12:42.200
<v Speaker 1>I want to start with that Giants-Houston game. Because when

0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:45.470
<v Speaker 1>we talked about it on Tuesday, I didn't understand the

0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:48.490
<v Speaker 1>move then that it went from nine and a half

0:12:48.530 --> 0:12:50.410
<v Speaker 1>to 10 and was trending towards 10 and a half.

0:12:50.910 --> 0:12:55.550
<v Speaker 1>McCarthy gets announced and it's immediately at 10 and a half.

0:12:57.630 --> 0:13:02.620
<v Speaker 1>Faves of six plus, thanks to Evan Abrams from Action,

0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:06.220
<v Speaker 1>8-18-1 this year against the spread. It just feels like,

0:13:07.420 --> 0:13:10.170
<v Speaker 1>what are we missing? why are we still, and I

0:13:10.190 --> 0:13:12.430
<v Speaker 1>don't want to invest in the Giants. And to be honest,

0:13:12.950 --> 0:13:15.700
<v Speaker 1>I haven't invested in the Giants just because I know

0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:19.380
<v Speaker 1>all of this movement on Houston is coming from professionals.

0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:23.600
<v Speaker 1>Like the public is on the Giants right now. But

0:13:23.620 --> 0:13:26.080
<v Speaker 1>what am I missing that I'm so caught up with

0:13:26.100 --> 0:13:28.800
<v Speaker 1>the public and you seem to be too, that the

0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:31.380
<v Speaker 1>wise guys are just like, screw it. This Texas team

0:13:31.400 --> 0:13:33.709
<v Speaker 1>is on the rise. We're not back in a Giants

0:13:33.750 --> 0:13:38.679
<v Speaker 1>team just because they backdoored against the Saints. Like or

0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:42.920
<v Speaker 1>just because they came back against the saints. Like, are

0:13:42.940 --> 0:13:43.480
<v Speaker 1>we idiots?

0:13:45.980 --> 0:13:47.760
<v Speaker 2>I will say this. I know plenty of people who

0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:49.939
<v Speaker 2>chase steam. They'll listen to the show and they, they

0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:53.260
<v Speaker 2>follow where the money goes. And I always say, be

0:13:53.300 --> 0:13:55.550
<v Speaker 2>weary of it. Cause you don't know what guys are doing, right?

0:13:55.570 --> 0:13:57.890
<v Speaker 2>Cause I'm got, sometimes guys move markets to get better

0:13:57.929 --> 0:14:00.390
<v Speaker 2>numbers on teams. They like, and they're giving you a

0:14:00.390 --> 0:14:02.670
<v Speaker 2>head fake. So it's always, you have to always be careful.

0:14:03.150 --> 0:14:06.010
<v Speaker 2>And that's simply true, especially Sunday morning. If you're, If

0:14:06.030 --> 0:14:09.880
<v Speaker 2>you're chasing numbers that move at 1230 noon, you're never

0:14:09.940 --> 0:14:12.420
<v Speaker 2>going to win long term. You can never, ever, ever

0:14:12.460 --> 0:14:14.280
<v Speaker 2>try to time the market and chase the market right

0:14:14.300 --> 0:14:17.700
<v Speaker 2>before kickoff because that's the ultimate fake time. Like there's

0:14:17.980 --> 0:14:20.740
<v Speaker 2>so many guys I know that move numbers right before

0:14:20.820 --> 0:14:22.660
<v Speaker 2>kick just so they can take a five figure, six

0:14:22.700 --> 0:14:27.010
<v Speaker 2>figure position on the other side, 10 minutes before kickoff. So, yeah,

0:14:27.170 --> 0:14:29.489
<v Speaker 2>to me, this is a line that if we don't

0:14:29.570 --> 0:14:32.510
<v Speaker 2>get it, neither of us understand it. more often than not,

0:14:32.550 --> 0:14:35.070
<v Speaker 2>you should simply bet the Texans here, right? You should

0:14:35.130 --> 0:14:37.620
<v Speaker 2>trust and respect these guys who do know a lot

0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:40.720
<v Speaker 2>more than us and spend millions of dollars on models

0:14:40.820 --> 0:14:43.660
<v Speaker 2>and getting information from different teams, and you should trust

0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:46.380
<v Speaker 2>that stuff. But this week is really tough where a

0:14:46.420 --> 0:14:48.840
<v Speaker 2>lot of these games are drawn lines in the sand, right?

0:14:48.900 --> 0:14:52.610
<v Speaker 2>Like so many pros are taking heavy positions on this game,

0:14:52.750 --> 0:14:55.850
<v Speaker 2>taking heavy positions on what we talked about, the Tennessee game,

0:14:55.970 --> 0:14:58.770
<v Speaker 2>taking heavy positions on Seattle where it's like, You know,

0:14:59.090 --> 0:15:02.290
<v Speaker 2>these groups don't bet these things lightly. And we talk

0:15:02.310 --> 0:15:03.850
<v Speaker 2>all the time. You have so many other options. I

0:15:03.870 --> 0:15:05.950
<v Speaker 2>don't know why they heavily focus on certain games. But

0:15:06.770 --> 0:15:09.110
<v Speaker 2>on an edge, you want to hone in on that edge.

0:15:09.130 --> 0:15:11.710
<v Speaker 2>You do hammer it. And, you know, the edge here

0:15:11.770 --> 0:15:15.080
<v Speaker 2>really is J.J. McCarthy. We've seen him multiple times. This

0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:18.760
<v Speaker 2>guy be game to game. High lows, turnovers, all that.

0:15:19.300 --> 0:15:22.120
<v Speaker 2>You have a Texas defense that, yeah, they're dying here

0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.980
<v Speaker 2>to play a bad team. But my biggest hesitation is

0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:26.730
<v Speaker 2>what me and Chad have talked about these years. Teams

0:15:26.790 --> 0:15:28.810
<v Speaker 2>playing in England, coming back, and then playing a game.

0:15:29.790 --> 0:15:32.000
<v Speaker 2>We've just seen it. The fall off in the second half,

0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:35.720
<v Speaker 2>it's a real thing. I mean, you just, you know,

0:15:35.740 --> 0:15:39.080
<v Speaker 2>we can go through the trends and these teams. It's

0:15:39.140 --> 0:15:43.610
<v Speaker 2>basically guaranteed if you have fake teams coming back from England, lifetime, long-term,

0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:45.410
<v Speaker 2>you'd be up. And we've seen it play out so

0:15:45.430 --> 0:15:48.390
<v Speaker 2>far this year where the rest disparity has mattered. That's

0:15:48.450 --> 0:15:50.510
<v Speaker 2>my biggest stopping point here. That's why I'm not investing

0:15:50.530 --> 0:15:51.690
<v Speaker 2>in this game. I think I'm the same as you,

0:15:51.710 --> 0:15:53.570
<v Speaker 2>where it's just, All right, I'll just avoid it. Maybe

0:15:53.590 --> 0:15:55.950
<v Speaker 2>I'll throw the Giants in a teaser, even a seven-point teaser.

0:15:56.010 --> 0:16:01.290
<v Speaker 2>Now you've got them up to 17.5 points. If this

0:16:01.330 --> 0:16:04.729
<v Speaker 2>was a regular scheduled game where they're coming off a

0:16:04.790 --> 0:16:08.150
<v Speaker 2>road game in New Orleans or another home game in Houston, sure,

0:16:09.290 --> 0:16:11.530
<v Speaker 2>doesn't matter any of that stuff. But the fact that

0:16:11.550 --> 0:16:14.990
<v Speaker 2>they're coming off a 10-hour, 11-hour flight to get from

0:16:15.150 --> 0:16:18.860
<v Speaker 2>England back to Texas, and then your body has to

0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:20.740
<v Speaker 2>get used to that, and then you're not practicing until, what,

0:16:20.780 --> 0:16:23.080
<v Speaker 2>Wednesday or Thursday? And then all of a sudden you

0:16:23.100 --> 0:16:24.800
<v Speaker 2>have this game against the Giants on Sunday.

0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:27.300
<v Speaker 1>It's just– It's double-digit favorites.

0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:30.780
<v Speaker 2>Double-digit favorites. So, yeah, this is definitely a game where

0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:32.180
<v Speaker 2>I think we both have a blind spot to it.

0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:35.380
<v Speaker 2>Just the Giants feel so easy and the public at

0:16:35.420 --> 0:16:37.710
<v Speaker 2>back are setting them up where it's like all the money,

0:16:37.730 --> 0:16:39.410
<v Speaker 2>all the bets right now are on the Giants despite

0:16:39.430 --> 0:16:41.110
<v Speaker 2>this number moving the other way. All right.

0:16:41.190 --> 0:16:43.490
<v Speaker 1>San Francisco and Atlanta, you mentioned it. I just want

0:16:43.510 --> 0:16:45.490
<v Speaker 1>to bring it up briefly.

0:16:45.510 --> 0:16:45.590
<v Speaker 2>Okay.

0:16:46.150 --> 0:16:48.640
<v Speaker 1>The line has moved through three. It's down to Atlanta

0:16:48.660 --> 0:16:51.480
<v Speaker 1>plus two and a half. This was Chad's choice at

0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:54.620
<v Speaker 1>three and a half. That was the good news. It

0:16:54.760 --> 0:16:58.880
<v Speaker 1>moved in our direction. Majority of tickets are on the Niners.

0:16:59.070 --> 0:17:00.630
<v Speaker 1>All the money is on the Falcons. So this is

0:17:00.730 --> 0:17:05.689
<v Speaker 1>clearly a pros-Joes game. The real question becomes, do we

0:17:05.750 --> 0:17:07.170
<v Speaker 1>back off at two and a half?

0:17:08.970 --> 0:17:13.010
<v Speaker 2>If someone hasn't bet it at all yet, Yeah, like you're.

0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:14.530
<v Speaker 1>Not taking Atlanta under three.

0:17:14.570 --> 0:17:18.250
<v Speaker 2>No, no, no, no. Yeah, don't chase that polymarket. Because

0:17:18.270 --> 0:17:21.469
<v Speaker 2>there's other shops where you can get the three. Where polymarket,

0:17:22.050 --> 0:17:24.850
<v Speaker 2>they don't do threes. They only do halves. Right. Yeah,

0:17:25.290 --> 0:17:26.790
<v Speaker 2>you could take two and a half. But like we

0:17:26.830 --> 0:17:31.020
<v Speaker 2>always say, you're protecting yourself against the unknown. It doesn't

0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:32.520
<v Speaker 2>matter if you're the greatest model in the world. There's

0:17:32.540 --> 0:17:35.040
<v Speaker 2>so much flukish stuff. You always want to get the

0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:36.880
<v Speaker 2>best number, obviously. And you always want to protect against

0:17:36.920 --> 0:17:39.179
<v Speaker 2>that field goal. Like it just– I'd say all the

0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:41.129
<v Speaker 2>time two and a half has become a very key number,

0:17:41.210 --> 0:17:46.590
<v Speaker 2>but why would you grab it when threes are available? That's, that's,

0:17:46.650 --> 0:17:50.590
<v Speaker 2>that's my issue here. So yeah, a line we were

0:17:50.650 --> 0:17:53.969
<v Speaker 2>way ahead of. We gave it all the reasons why

0:17:54.010 --> 0:17:56.320
<v Speaker 2>you should be loving the Falcons here. Not just because

0:17:57.060 --> 0:17:59.080
<v Speaker 2>how good their offense has been. And we expect Pennix

0:17:59.119 --> 0:18:02.540
<v Speaker 2>to play better, especially compared to what he played in

0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:05.960
<v Speaker 2>his last game. But I look at this matchup here

0:18:06.000 --> 0:18:09.690
<v Speaker 2>and I, I just think this 49ers team, we faded

0:18:09.710 --> 0:18:12.389
<v Speaker 2>them last week on the simple fact that it was

0:18:12.410 --> 0:18:16.270
<v Speaker 2>too many points. Without the injuries, it made more sense,

0:18:16.650 --> 0:18:18.850
<v Speaker 2>the points. And now you factor in the fact that

0:18:18.950 --> 0:18:22.159
<v Speaker 2>Mike Evans, who's been everything to that offense, especially on

0:18:22.200 --> 0:18:24.740
<v Speaker 2>third downs. I mean, you just look at Brock Purdy's

0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:28.780
<v Speaker 2>splits on third down. Now Kittle, obviously he helps mitigate

0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:31.620
<v Speaker 2>some of that. But it really has been the Mike

0:18:31.680 --> 0:18:35.290
<v Speaker 2>Evans show this season. Like quietly, people don't realize how–

0:18:35.650 --> 0:18:37.580
<v Speaker 2>you know, important. He's been to that team. Everyone always

0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:41.280
<v Speaker 2>thinks McCaffrey offensively, it's been pretty one. And the number two,

0:18:41.340 --> 0:18:43.859
<v Speaker 2>it's been Mike Evans. Like he just has been huge

0:18:43.900 --> 0:18:47.740
<v Speaker 2>for them on third and go situation. So he's out

0:18:48.070 --> 0:18:50.409
<v Speaker 2>most likely in this game. I think that's part of

0:18:50.430 --> 0:18:52.810
<v Speaker 2>the movement here. I think most books and most guys

0:18:52.850 --> 0:18:55.390
<v Speaker 2>making models have him at worth over half a point.

0:18:55.430 --> 0:18:58.149
<v Speaker 2>Some guys have a full point, which is crazy to

0:18:58.190 --> 0:19:01.310
<v Speaker 2>think for a receiver like Mike Evans. So To me,

0:19:01.390 --> 0:19:04.210
<v Speaker 2>it's another unavoidable. As soon as the number popped, me

0:19:04.230 --> 0:19:05.649
<v Speaker 2>and you both loved it. I don't know if we

0:19:05.670 --> 0:19:07.050
<v Speaker 2>talked about it Sunday night, but it was right away

0:19:07.090 --> 0:19:10.910
<v Speaker 2>a game I bet. We both loved it Tuesday. Unfortunately,

0:19:10.930 --> 0:19:13.070
<v Speaker 2>it's moved. I wish it had stayed at three, three

0:19:13.090 --> 0:19:14.550
<v Speaker 2>and a half so more people that listen to the

0:19:14.630 --> 0:19:17.810
<v Speaker 2>show could have got it. Just another number where we're

0:19:18.490 --> 0:19:19.930
<v Speaker 2>going to have a tough choice to make in contests.

0:19:19.990 --> 0:19:21.189
<v Speaker 2>It's probably going to be two and a half. That's

0:19:21.210 --> 0:19:23.180
<v Speaker 2>going to be a tough choice. I would still bet

0:19:23.220 --> 0:19:25.820
<v Speaker 2>it if we had two in contests because it's one

0:19:25.840 --> 0:19:27.520
<v Speaker 2>of the heavier bet games I have this week. I'm

0:19:28.040 --> 0:19:31.650
<v Speaker 2>more than excited to cheer for it, but Yeah. Unfortunately,

0:19:31.670 --> 0:19:33.270
<v Speaker 2>it's moved so much. Now we have a real tough

0:19:33.290 --> 0:19:34.410
<v Speaker 2>decision to make on that game.

0:19:34.980 --> 0:19:37.520
<v Speaker 1>I also apologize for the phone ringing in the background.

0:19:38.300 --> 0:19:40.379
<v Speaker 1>My mother-in-law might be one of the last people in

0:19:40.420 --> 0:19:44.629
<v Speaker 1>the world with a landline and she gets calls 17

0:19:44.630 --> 0:19:48.409
<v Speaker 1>times a day. She doesn't answer it. She's not here

0:19:48.450 --> 0:19:51.679
<v Speaker 1>right now. Doesn't ever answer it. And it's always somebody

0:19:51.720 --> 0:19:53.180
<v Speaker 1>calling to sell something.

0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:56.460
<v Speaker 2>You know, you can unplug, you can unplug those landlines, right? Yeah.

0:19:56.640 --> 0:19:59.200
<v Speaker 1>I completely forgot before we came on the air to

0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:04.830
<v Speaker 1>unplug the phone. I just forgot about it. My bad. Listen,

0:20:06.369 --> 0:20:08.290
<v Speaker 1>we show, we show the show warts and all here.

0:20:08.869 --> 0:20:11.770
<v Speaker 1>Speaking of a number that is still a little bit

0:20:11.810 --> 0:20:15.369
<v Speaker 1>of value, Tampa Bay at Carolina, Tampa Bay plus three.

0:20:15.410 --> 0:20:17.490
<v Speaker 1>This was Simon Says at three and a half. The

0:20:17.510 --> 0:20:20.080
<v Speaker 1>wise guys still love it. Look, this might be a

0:20:20.100 --> 0:20:21.680
<v Speaker 1>game where we have no choice but to put it

0:20:21.859 --> 0:20:23.100
<v Speaker 1>in because we're going to be getting the hook in

0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:29.880
<v Speaker 1>the contest, hopefully. But as much as we love Carolina

0:20:29.920 --> 0:20:34.740
<v Speaker 1>and think they're ascendant, we're not really ready to bet

0:20:34.820 --> 0:20:38.780
<v Speaker 1>Bryce Young as a field goal or more favorite in

0:20:38.820 --> 0:20:40.919
<v Speaker 1>a division game as a favorite.

0:20:41.400 --> 0:20:45.639
<v Speaker 2>Exactly. Keep it simple, guys. You're asking Bryce Young to

0:20:45.680 --> 0:20:47.740
<v Speaker 2>blow a team out in his own division. I don't

0:20:47.790 --> 0:20:49.730
<v Speaker 2>think we're at that stage yet with Bryce Young, with

0:20:49.750 --> 0:20:53.909
<v Speaker 2>this Carolina Panthers team. And as good as they looked

0:20:54.130 --> 0:20:57.210
<v Speaker 2>last week, we've seen this team being up and down

0:20:57.270 --> 0:20:59.840
<v Speaker 2>team for the past two years, right? They look good

0:20:59.910 --> 0:21:01.879
<v Speaker 2>one week. They win. They play really well offensively. The

0:21:01.920 --> 0:21:03.980
<v Speaker 2>next week, they kind of sputter and lay eggs. And

0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:06.530
<v Speaker 2>you've seen this Bucs team As much hate as I

0:21:06.550 --> 0:21:09.270
<v Speaker 2>was giving Todd Bowles because their defense was so atrocious

0:21:09.290 --> 0:21:11.630
<v Speaker 2>to start the season, they've been better the last three weeks.

0:21:11.730 --> 0:21:15.410
<v Speaker 2>They have improved, and they have gotten better. And even,

0:21:16.030 --> 0:21:18.590
<v Speaker 2>you know, say what you want, against Green Bay, they

0:21:18.630 --> 0:21:21.470
<v Speaker 2>played pretty well defensively. Against the Cowboys, obviously, they played

0:21:21.510 --> 0:21:25.170
<v Speaker 2>pretty well. So this really does come down to the number,

0:21:25.369 --> 0:21:27.670
<v Speaker 2>once again, where it's just there's two and a half

0:21:27.690 --> 0:21:29.470
<v Speaker 2>to open the week. Me and Chad would have happily

0:21:30.190 --> 0:21:33.090
<v Speaker 2>sold you on the Panthers. Like, okay, getting Bryce under

0:21:33.109 --> 0:21:35.189
<v Speaker 2>a field goal at home. So now– If you want

0:21:35.210 --> 0:21:36.929
<v Speaker 2>to go to Polymark and take that number, I'm not

0:21:36.950 --> 0:21:38.869
<v Speaker 2>going to fight you on it. But to me, the

0:21:38.950 --> 0:21:40.490
<v Speaker 2>best spot, the best position you want to be on

0:21:40.530 --> 0:21:42.510
<v Speaker 2>is a Bucs team at plus three, plus three and

0:21:42.530 --> 0:21:47.399
<v Speaker 2>a half after a loss and a situation where, yes,

0:21:47.500 --> 0:21:49.800
<v Speaker 2>they have a rookie quarterback, but the rest of the

0:21:49.820 --> 0:21:52.800
<v Speaker 2>team are a lot of veterans. And any team that's

0:21:52.880 --> 0:21:55.159
<v Speaker 2>one of four is going to be very desperate, especially

0:21:55.200 --> 0:21:57.189
<v Speaker 2>compared to a team that's three and two above 500,

0:21:57.180 --> 0:22:00.970
<v Speaker 2>maybe feeling themselves after a win against Philadelphia on the road. So,

0:22:01.600 --> 0:22:03.000
<v Speaker 2>A lot of mental stuff to go into this one,

0:22:03.020 --> 0:22:04.480
<v Speaker 2>and I just look at the numbers as well where

0:22:04.500 --> 0:22:06.480
<v Speaker 2>it's just always felt like the value was going to

0:22:06.500 --> 0:22:08.980
<v Speaker 2>be there. It's nice to hear the pros coming in

0:22:09.020 --> 0:22:10.540
<v Speaker 2>with us because I'm not going to lie. I was

0:22:10.580 --> 0:22:13.180
<v Speaker 2>hesitant where it's just like this exact time the pros

0:22:13.220 --> 0:22:15.050
<v Speaker 2>might be jumping off the books because they got burned

0:22:15.150 --> 0:22:19.190
<v Speaker 2>so bad last week against Pittsburgh where, you know, some

0:22:19.210 --> 0:22:21.170
<v Speaker 2>pros are like that where they get burned by a

0:22:21.170 --> 0:22:23.590
<v Speaker 2>team that goes, okay, my model obviously overrated this team.

0:22:23.750 --> 0:22:25.230
<v Speaker 2>It's time to jump off it. Like they got me

0:22:25.270 --> 0:22:27.610
<v Speaker 2>with Cowboys. I should have taken that money and walked

0:22:27.650 --> 0:22:30.930
<v Speaker 2>away and not try to go again against Pittsburgh. No,

0:22:30.950 --> 0:22:32.800
<v Speaker 2>I have not heard that this week. I've basically heard

0:22:32.820 --> 0:22:34.460
<v Speaker 2>guys dug in where it's like they feel like Pittsburgh

0:22:34.480 --> 0:22:37.340
<v Speaker 2>got very lucky. This Bucs team is still underrated, much

0:22:37.380 --> 0:22:39.820
<v Speaker 2>better than people perceive. So I still think we're getting

0:22:39.840 --> 0:22:41.820
<v Speaker 2>a good number here on this Bucs team that, you know,

0:22:42.140 --> 0:22:46.110
<v Speaker 2>if they beat Pittsburgh, probably is, probably would open minus

0:22:46.130 --> 0:22:47.990
<v Speaker 2>two and a half, probably would open minus two on

0:22:48.010 --> 0:22:50.330
<v Speaker 2>the Panthers. So, you know, we always want to look

0:22:50.450 --> 0:22:52.250
<v Speaker 2>for that free extra half point, extra point of value,

0:22:52.270 --> 0:22:54.430
<v Speaker 2>and that's what we're getting here on this Bucs team.

0:22:54.450 --> 0:22:58.540
<v Speaker 1>The game that has caused the most controversy, other than

0:22:58.600 --> 0:23:03.710
<v Speaker 1>Kansas City and Seattle, Cleveland visiting Tennessee. Tennessee is a

0:23:03.840 --> 0:23:05.859
<v Speaker 1>one and a half point home underdog, which means the

0:23:05.910 --> 0:23:08.100
<v Speaker 1>Browns are one and a half point road favorites at

0:23:08.150 --> 0:23:11.679
<v Speaker 1>four and two in first place in the division. Latest

0:23:11.720 --> 0:23:15.740
<v Speaker 1>in the season in 12 years for the Browns. The

0:23:16.060 --> 0:23:21.939
<v Speaker 1>massive discrepancy between betting tickets and money. No bigger difference

0:23:22.000 --> 0:23:25.600
<v Speaker 1>than this game this week. All the money on the Titans.

0:23:26.260 --> 0:23:32.000
<v Speaker 1>Wise guys plowing money into the Titans tonight. Are we adults?

0:23:32.020 --> 0:23:33.780
<v Speaker 1>I mean, how many times have you said to me,

0:23:33.820 --> 0:23:37.480
<v Speaker 1>can we be grownups? Can we not bet on the Titans?

0:23:38.660 --> 0:23:40.340
<v Speaker 1>Are we going to be grownups? Are we going to

0:23:40.380 --> 0:23:42.840
<v Speaker 1>be bullied? What are we doing here?

0:23:44.740 --> 0:23:47.110
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. It's a spot though, where I had to bet

0:23:47.150 --> 0:23:49.030
<v Speaker 2>Tennessee or I can't, I can't bet anything else. Like

0:23:49.070 --> 0:23:51.350
<v Speaker 2>I can't, I can't bet the Browns and I can't

0:23:51.390 --> 0:23:54.830
<v Speaker 2>tell people here to bet the Browns. And I totally

0:23:54.850 --> 0:23:57.090
<v Speaker 2>get though, why the public is their perception is the

0:23:57.130 --> 0:23:59.679
<v Speaker 2>Browns here where You say all the time, right? The

0:23:59.720 --> 0:24:01.500
<v Speaker 2>public are dumb, but they do win 35%, 40% of

0:24:01.520 --> 0:24:05.200
<v Speaker 2>the time. So, couldn't this be one of those spots? Yeah. Like,

0:24:05.240 --> 0:24:08.620
<v Speaker 2>this is... It's too good to be true, and that's

0:24:08.660 --> 0:24:11.030
<v Speaker 2>our biggest issue here. Like, I can't believe I'm getting

0:24:11.190 --> 0:24:14.550
<v Speaker 2>under two with this Browns team that, across the board,

0:24:14.570 --> 0:24:17.609
<v Speaker 2>we think are much better. In Tennessee, all the trends. Like,

0:24:17.630 --> 0:24:18.850
<v Speaker 2>I talk all the time about these guys I hear

0:24:18.869 --> 0:24:21.410
<v Speaker 2>from who are hardcore trend bettors. This was, like, my

0:24:21.470 --> 0:24:24.920
<v Speaker 2>biggest call-up about guys where it's just, like, there's a

0:24:24.940 --> 0:24:26.600
<v Speaker 2>ton of trends that love Tennessee here, but the biggest

0:24:26.619 --> 0:24:29.290
<v Speaker 2>one that jumps out is They're 0-12, their last 12

0:24:29.290 --> 0:24:32.150
<v Speaker 2>after a straight-up win. Like this is just– ever since

0:24:32.210 --> 0:24:34.490
<v Speaker 2>Vrabel left, this has just been a train wreck of

0:24:34.510 --> 0:24:38.760
<v Speaker 2>an organization. And can they turn it around here? Sure.

0:24:38.800 --> 0:24:41.080
<v Speaker 2>But I talk all the time. These to me are

0:24:41.119 --> 0:24:44.879
<v Speaker 2>playoff lines where the books are saying, I don't think

0:24:44.900 --> 0:24:47.680
<v Speaker 2>you're a playoff team, Browns. And the Browns, if they

0:24:47.700 --> 0:24:49.239
<v Speaker 2>win this game, they're saying to the books, we are.

0:24:49.460 --> 0:24:51.240
<v Speaker 2>You need to adjust your models. Like that's why I

0:24:51.290 --> 0:24:53.770
<v Speaker 2>love these type of games because that's literally what this

0:24:53.810 --> 0:24:56.590
<v Speaker 2>line is. It's like, okay, you're a legit above a

0:24:56.570 --> 0:24:59.870
<v Speaker 2>500 team. go to Tennessee after a big divisional win

0:24:59.910 --> 0:25:02.390
<v Speaker 2>at home and win this game against a bad Tennessee team.

0:25:03.210 --> 0:25:06.470
<v Speaker 2>The Browns choke on this spot 80% of the time.

0:25:06.609 --> 0:25:08.250
<v Speaker 2>I mean, we just, we have the data to back

0:25:08.270 --> 0:25:10.609
<v Speaker 2>it up where the Browns always have these letdown games

0:25:10.990 --> 0:25:13.280
<v Speaker 2>after huge divisional games, let alone a divisional game. You

0:25:13.320 --> 0:25:17.240
<v Speaker 2>won on a last second field goal. So there's tons

0:25:17.540 --> 0:25:19.699
<v Speaker 2>and tons of hate on the Brown side where Tennessee,

0:25:20.980 --> 0:25:23.480
<v Speaker 2>I know it feels like, you know, there might be

0:25:23.540 --> 0:25:26.480
<v Speaker 2>really high in themselves and the Tennessee team, but, You

0:25:26.500 --> 0:25:28.760
<v Speaker 2>look at the underlying numbers. They have to know. Salah

0:25:28.780 --> 0:25:30.160
<v Speaker 2>has to know they got away with it. They had

0:25:30.160 --> 0:25:34.439
<v Speaker 2>160 yards of total offense, a bunch of turnovers. I mean,

0:25:34.460 --> 0:25:36.180
<v Speaker 2>me and Chad alluded to it. You have a guy

0:25:37.040 --> 0:25:38.960
<v Speaker 2>get in an argument with a player on his team

0:25:39.020 --> 0:25:40.840
<v Speaker 2>and go in and retrieve a handgun from his car,

0:25:40.880 --> 0:25:43.399
<v Speaker 2>whatever it may be, some type of weapon. No, it

0:25:44.200 --> 0:25:47.040
<v Speaker 2>was a handgun. That's what it was. Yeah, Salah, a

0:25:47.320 --> 0:25:50.179
<v Speaker 2>ton of respect to him where he tried to give

0:25:50.240 --> 0:25:52.619
<v Speaker 2>a ton of good grace to this guy. But at

0:25:52.640 --> 0:25:54.400
<v Speaker 2>the end of the day, this guy's one mistake was

0:25:54.440 --> 0:25:56.300
<v Speaker 2>he went to go retrieve a gun to go murder someone.

0:25:57.080 --> 0:25:57.960
<v Speaker 2>I don't know if you can say.

0:25:57.880 --> 0:25:59.700
<v Speaker 1>This guy's a good man. We don't know if he

0:25:59.720 --> 0:26:03.060
<v Speaker 1>was going to murder someone. All we know is that

0:26:03.420 --> 0:26:05.409
<v Speaker 1>he went to get a gun and that is a

0:26:05.420 --> 0:26:08.310
<v Speaker 1>violation of team rules. And then Robert Sala said, hey,

0:26:08.510 --> 0:26:10.250
<v Speaker 1>I like him, but he can't be on the team

0:26:10.290 --> 0:26:11.250
<v Speaker 1>when you're going to get a gun.

0:26:11.850 --> 0:26:13.169
<v Speaker 2>Yes. And whether you're going to get a gun to

0:26:13.210 --> 0:26:17.480
<v Speaker 2>threaten someone or actually kill someone, the law, judge and

0:26:17.500 --> 0:26:18.200
<v Speaker 2>jury looks at it.

0:26:18.220 --> 0:26:19.100
<v Speaker 1>It's not on your side.

0:26:19.280 --> 0:26:23.109
<v Speaker 2>Yes, exactly. So He's very lucky that he's an NFL

0:26:23.150 --> 0:26:25.969
<v Speaker 2>player and they're letting him, no charges being pressed. The

0:26:25.990 --> 0:26:28.949
<v Speaker 2>worst thing that happened, he's lost his job. But how

0:26:28.970 --> 0:26:31.740
<v Speaker 2>does that not affect the team? That's another big policy

0:26:31.760 --> 0:26:33.699
<v Speaker 2>for me where it's like, oh my God, you have

0:26:33.720 --> 0:26:36.140
<v Speaker 2>a terrible team now with all this off-field drama this week.

0:26:36.180 --> 0:26:38.820
<v Speaker 2>Now maybe these guys are rather behind solid being like,

0:26:38.900 --> 0:26:42.100
<v Speaker 2>oh man, this guy has my back. Like this guy

0:26:42.119 --> 0:26:43.619
<v Speaker 2>on our team went to go get a handgun. This

0:26:43.660 --> 0:26:45.710
<v Speaker 2>guy's still praising him saying, if any team calls me

0:26:45.750 --> 0:26:48.190
<v Speaker 2>about this player, I will sell you on him. Why

0:26:48.230 --> 0:26:49.530
<v Speaker 2>he should be on your team. Why he's one of

0:26:49.550 --> 0:26:52.050
<v Speaker 2>the best D tackles on football. So, That could be

0:26:52.070 --> 0:26:54.410
<v Speaker 2>a rallying point here, but that whole situation is throwing

0:26:54.430 --> 0:26:56.210
<v Speaker 2>me for a loop with this one where I thought

0:26:56.230 --> 0:26:57.490
<v Speaker 2>I was going to come here today and be like, no,

0:26:57.510 --> 0:26:59.750
<v Speaker 2>me and Chad have to bet Tennessee. This has to

0:26:59.770 --> 0:27:02.340
<v Speaker 2>be in our contest. Now I'm just like, like Chad said,

0:27:02.380 --> 0:27:03.700
<v Speaker 2>is there an adult in the room? Can we avoid

0:27:03.740 --> 0:27:06.960
<v Speaker 2>this game? Because, my God, we have to take Tennessee,

0:27:06.980 --> 0:27:08.600
<v Speaker 2>and I just do not want to in any way.

0:27:08.960 --> 0:27:11.580
<v Speaker 1>I'm glad we're talking about it. I'm glad we're working

0:27:11.600 --> 0:27:14.440
<v Speaker 1>through the process. You and I are on the same page.

0:27:15.880 --> 0:27:20.119
<v Speaker 1>Maybe we take a little piece of Tennessee. this cannot

0:27:20.140 --> 0:27:23.859
<v Speaker 1>be in the contest. We cannot fall prey on either.

0:27:23.900 --> 0:27:26.400
<v Speaker 1>If we put in picks after the show and then

0:27:26.500 --> 0:27:31.380
<v Speaker 1>reevaluate on Sunday or lock in on Sunday, like let's

0:27:31.420 --> 0:27:34.830
<v Speaker 1>be grownups. Let's do a solid to our audience. Let's

0:27:34.970 --> 0:27:38.950
<v Speaker 1>not make people tail Tennessee. If they're following our picks

0:27:39.030 --> 0:27:41.409
<v Speaker 1>on Sunday, or by the way, maybe they want us

0:27:41.430 --> 0:27:43.990
<v Speaker 1>to take Tennessee because they can continue to move ahead

0:27:44.030 --> 0:27:48.570
<v Speaker 1>of us in the contest. Simon, it's time for our

0:27:48.790 --> 0:27:54.070
<v Speaker 1>poly market, Brass Balls Trade of the Week. And our

0:27:54.109 --> 0:27:57.109
<v Speaker 1>Brass Balls Trade of the Week presented by Polymarket is

0:27:58.690 --> 0:28:04.119
<v Speaker 1>the Miami Dolphins trading at four and a half at 52%

0:28:04.119 --> 0:28:04.919
<v Speaker 1>on Polymarket.

0:28:04.980 --> 0:28:08.060
<v Speaker 2>You know what it takes? It takes brass balls.

0:28:10.740 --> 0:28:14.409
<v Speaker 1>Listen, there's no avoiding it. We've been talking about it

0:28:14.460 --> 0:28:18.550
<v Speaker 1>all week. Like it's ugly. The move indicates what the

0:28:18.590 --> 0:28:22.330
<v Speaker 1>professionals are doing. Other than number, other than the side,

0:28:22.550 --> 0:28:24.689
<v Speaker 1>other than knowing it's the trade to make, is there

0:28:24.710 --> 0:28:27.590
<v Speaker 1>anything on the field that gives us confidence that Miami

0:28:27.650 --> 0:28:30.290
<v Speaker 1>is in a position to execute for us?

0:28:30.710 --> 0:28:32.969
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, confidence is a tricky word when it comes to

0:28:32.990 --> 0:28:34.840
<v Speaker 2>this Miami team, Chad. This is a team that I

0:28:34.880 --> 0:28:37.580
<v Speaker 2>think we all project out to not win a game

0:28:37.640 --> 0:28:39.520
<v Speaker 2>this year, but I view this as this is the

0:28:39.620 --> 0:28:43.140
<v Speaker 2>one time they could win. There's only going to be

0:28:43.200 --> 0:28:45.300
<v Speaker 2>one or two opportunities this whole entire season for Miami

0:28:45.320 --> 0:28:48.310
<v Speaker 2>to steal a game and win. This feels like it.

0:28:48.350 --> 0:28:51.830
<v Speaker 2>They're just evenly matched. I know it doesn't feel that

0:28:51.850 --> 0:28:55.150
<v Speaker 2>way to the general public because Miami is just so

0:28:55.230 --> 0:28:58.770
<v Speaker 2>openly tanking. But this Jets team, as much love as

0:28:58.810 --> 0:29:01.370
<v Speaker 2>people are giving this year, I still have major questions

0:29:01.410 --> 0:29:04.100
<v Speaker 2>about them. And, you know, the one benefit I'll give

0:29:04.120 --> 0:29:06.360
<v Speaker 2>to them is the Jets, they look like they've drafted

0:29:06.400 --> 0:29:08.220
<v Speaker 2>really well the last two years. Like they have a

0:29:08.240 --> 0:29:09.940
<v Speaker 2>couple of guys they've drafted these past two years that

0:29:09.980 --> 0:29:13.020
<v Speaker 2>look much better than we perceive. And in the Jets,

0:29:13.040 --> 0:29:15.060
<v Speaker 2>you're back and coming off back to back covers. Right.

0:29:15.100 --> 0:29:19.380
<v Speaker 2>They covered obviously at home. against Cleveland as a minus-two-and-a-half-point favorite.

0:29:19.880 --> 0:29:21.600
<v Speaker 2>And then they covered last week on a backdoor field

0:29:21.620 --> 0:29:25.620
<v Speaker 2>goal as a seven-and-a-half-point dog. I know why the public

0:29:25.660 --> 0:29:27.660
<v Speaker 2>is backing this Jets team, right? And then to the

0:29:27.680 --> 0:29:30.460
<v Speaker 2>flip side, it's why there's so many pros loving this

0:29:30.480 --> 0:29:33.210
<v Speaker 2>Miami team, where it's just like, okay, everyone's kind of

0:29:33.230 --> 0:29:35.470
<v Speaker 2>leaving this team for dead. You know, to start the year, obviously,

0:29:35.490 --> 0:29:38.870
<v Speaker 2>they started with three non-covers. Got a cover against Minnesota

0:29:38.890 --> 0:29:41.470
<v Speaker 2>because a guy laid down. right before he scored a touchdown.

0:29:41.850 --> 0:29:43.810
<v Speaker 2>They just totally don't believe in this team, which I

0:29:43.830 --> 0:29:46.670
<v Speaker 2>totally get. We're getting another free point, point and a

0:29:46.730 --> 0:29:50.020
<v Speaker 2>half in a divisional game that we expect to be close. Like,

0:29:50.120 --> 0:29:52.410
<v Speaker 2>it just doesn't matter whether these teams are good or bad.

0:29:53.020 --> 0:29:54.740
<v Speaker 2>They tend to play close against each other, and it

0:29:54.760 --> 0:29:56.700
<v Speaker 2>just so happens they're both bad. I mean, you can't,

0:29:57.080 --> 0:29:58.360
<v Speaker 2>you can lie to yourself as a Jets fan and

0:29:58.400 --> 0:30:00.710
<v Speaker 2>say they're better than they were last year, I'm telling you,

0:30:00.720 --> 0:30:04.300
<v Speaker 2>look at underlying numbers. They've drafted better, so there's little improvements,

0:30:04.400 --> 0:30:07.220
<v Speaker 2>but overall, they're not that much better of a team,

0:30:07.600 --> 0:30:09.640
<v Speaker 2>and I just think that's too many points to be

0:30:09.700 --> 0:30:12.820
<v Speaker 2>given Aaron Glenn and this Jets offense, so who knows

0:30:12.880 --> 0:30:14.380
<v Speaker 2>if it's one of our fives. It's a tough week

0:30:14.400 --> 0:30:15.490
<v Speaker 2>to get one of our fives, but this might be

0:30:15.530 --> 0:30:16.870
<v Speaker 2>the fifth one in. We were going to have a

0:30:16.890 --> 0:30:18.750
<v Speaker 2>bunch of back and forths about that last one in.

0:30:19.310 --> 0:30:21.830
<v Speaker 2>This could make it. I want to give this out

0:30:21.850 --> 0:30:24.150
<v Speaker 2>right now because this feels a little bit like Atlanta

0:30:24.410 --> 0:30:26.330
<v Speaker 2>and what we gave out with the Bucs, where this

0:30:26.370 --> 0:30:28.690
<v Speaker 2>could be moving. Could be three and a half come

0:30:28.730 --> 0:30:32.040
<v Speaker 2>game kickoff, so That was the real reason we're trying

0:30:32.060 --> 0:30:34.300
<v Speaker 2>to think of. It's a ballsy bet you want to

0:30:34.320 --> 0:30:36.120
<v Speaker 2>get before the market moves, and at four and a half,

0:30:36.140 --> 0:30:37.540
<v Speaker 2>that's good value here on PolyMarket.

0:30:37.860 --> 0:30:40.140
<v Speaker 1>I need to tell you about this new prediction market

0:30:40.200 --> 0:30:43.360
<v Speaker 1>called PolyMarket. It's the best new way to trade in

0:30:44.090 --> 0:30:46.110
<v Speaker 1>sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game,

0:30:46.130 --> 0:30:47.729
<v Speaker 1>you'd put some money in, and if your team was

0:30:47.750 --> 0:30:50.070
<v Speaker 1>doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock

0:30:50.090 --> 0:30:52.330
<v Speaker 1>the trade or take a huge fee. But PolyMarket is

0:30:52.370 --> 0:30:55.390
<v Speaker 1>a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you

0:30:55.430 --> 0:30:57.969
<v Speaker 1>can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them

0:30:58.070 --> 0:31:02.470
<v Speaker 1>all in PolyMarket. is simply the best prediction market. They're

0:31:02.510 --> 0:31:04.730
<v Speaker 1>so confident you'll never go back to the other guys.

0:31:05.230 --> 0:31:08.850
<v Speaker 1>They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade

0:31:08.870 --> 0:31:13.760
<v Speaker 1>when you deposit just $ 10. Now they've launched a new feature, Squads,

0:31:14.840 --> 0:31:17.060
<v Speaker 1>a group chat where you can see what everyone is

0:31:17.260 --> 0:31:19.460
<v Speaker 1>trading on. Check the link in the description to join

0:31:19.500 --> 0:31:22.800
<v Speaker 1>my squad today and sweat picks together every Sunday in

0:31:22.840 --> 0:31:26.500
<v Speaker 1>the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and

0:31:26.620 --> 0:31:31.570
<v Speaker 1>use SHARP when you sign up. That's SHARP. to get

0:31:31.570 --> 0:31:38.830
<v Speaker 1>$ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Indianapolis Colts at

0:31:38.910 --> 0:31:43.790
<v Speaker 1>the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota's a six and a half point

0:31:43.830 --> 0:31:49.770
<v Speaker 1>favorite here. This is a rare wise guy favorite. Everyone

0:31:49.810 --> 0:31:53.060
<v Speaker 1>continues to love Minnesota. You can see it in the metrics.

0:31:53.120 --> 0:31:57.020
<v Speaker 1>The money is coming in on the Vikings. I'm a

0:31:57.040 --> 0:32:00.160
<v Speaker 1>little surprised the number hasn't gotten to seven yet, The

0:32:00.180 --> 0:32:04.320
<v Speaker 1>question for us is, are we confident enough on the

0:32:04.380 --> 0:32:07.340
<v Speaker 1>Vikings at six and a half coming off the bye?

0:32:08.060 --> 0:32:11.230
<v Speaker 1>Is their offense improving? Are we starting to see Kyler

0:32:11.910 --> 0:32:17.710
<v Speaker 1>get into the KOC mindset? Having missed the first couple

0:32:17.750 --> 0:32:21.310
<v Speaker 1>of games, they started to play really well offensively in

0:32:21.330 --> 0:32:25.150
<v Speaker 1>their last game. Do we back the Vikings as favorites?

0:32:25.230 --> 0:32:27.820
<v Speaker 1>Does this make it in? Are we with the wise

0:32:27.860 --> 0:32:28.360
<v Speaker 1>guys on this?

0:32:29.990 --> 0:32:32.730
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. My initial reaction was right away. Take the cold,

0:32:32.790 --> 0:32:35.450
<v Speaker 2>especially with all these points. But we talked a little

0:32:35.470 --> 0:32:37.210
<v Speaker 2>bit last show. I just, I knew the more I

0:32:37.260 --> 0:32:40.100
<v Speaker 2>dove into this Vikings team, it was going to kind

0:32:40.140 --> 0:32:43.200
<v Speaker 2>of favorite them in the sense that Florida's defense is

0:32:43.220 --> 0:32:46.040
<v Speaker 2>exact type of defense that gives me huge problems to

0:32:46.060 --> 0:32:48.770
<v Speaker 2>especially a quarterback like Daniel Jones. So I told you

0:32:48.790 --> 0:32:50.610
<v Speaker 2>the stuff I can find the silver lining. If you're

0:32:50.650 --> 0:32:53.030
<v Speaker 2>backing this cold side is, you know, if you have

0:32:53.050 --> 0:32:55.950
<v Speaker 2>Jonathan Taylor run for 150, you're going to win this game.

0:32:56.050 --> 0:32:58.010
<v Speaker 2>Like that's, that to me is where the matchup is

0:32:58.030 --> 0:32:59.470
<v Speaker 2>going to come into play where if they can run

0:32:59.490 --> 0:33:02.170
<v Speaker 2>the ball and neutralize the blitz, you could run against

0:33:02.210 --> 0:33:04.110
<v Speaker 2>the blitz. You'll win that game. Cause I just don't

0:33:04.150 --> 0:33:05.910
<v Speaker 2>think they can pass against. I don't think Daniel Jones

0:33:05.950 --> 0:33:08.510
<v Speaker 2>is good enough. And Keenan Allen, the weapons on the

0:33:08.550 --> 0:33:12.150
<v Speaker 2>outside without Warren, especially it's just not there. So this

0:33:12.210 --> 0:33:15.320
<v Speaker 2>is another game where Tyler Warren's out and we come

0:33:15.360 --> 0:33:17.300
<v Speaker 2>in Sunday morning. Once again, we can't find a fifth

0:33:17.340 --> 0:33:20.160
<v Speaker 2>and you're very high on the Vikings. I'm not going

0:33:20.180 --> 0:33:21.980
<v Speaker 2>to fight you on it. Like I, I had an

0:33:22.020 --> 0:33:23.660
<v Speaker 2>initial bet on the Colts at plus six. I have

0:33:23.700 --> 0:33:26.360
<v Speaker 2>not bet anything else into this game. And, the more

0:33:26.400 --> 0:33:29.140
<v Speaker 2>it's going along here, you know, we, we talked about

0:33:30.180 --> 0:33:32.740
<v Speaker 2>avoiding Tennessee. If you want to put Tennessee up to

0:33:32.800 --> 0:33:34.770
<v Speaker 2>seven and a half and put the Vikings at a pick,

0:33:35.460 --> 0:33:37.830
<v Speaker 2>that's a nice teaser. If you want to take, you know,

0:33:37.970 --> 0:33:39.969
<v Speaker 2>the chiefs up to nine and a half or eight

0:33:40.010 --> 0:33:41.970
<v Speaker 2>and a half and put the Vikings down to a pick,

0:33:42.550 --> 0:33:44.850
<v Speaker 2>it's a nice teaser. So that's, that's where I'm viewing

0:33:44.890 --> 0:33:48.340
<v Speaker 2>this one where it's like, man, I can't, I can't,

0:33:48.620 --> 0:33:50.280
<v Speaker 2>I'm trying to align myself and take this many points

0:33:50.300 --> 0:33:52.700
<v Speaker 2>with Kyler Murray and I cannot do it. That's, that's

0:33:52.740 --> 0:33:55.630
<v Speaker 2>the holdup here. It's just, My biggest holdup is Kyler. My,

0:33:55.810 --> 0:33:57.990
<v Speaker 2>all my faith right now is the Vikings defense where

0:33:58.550 --> 0:34:00.690
<v Speaker 2>this just feels like such a great matchup of floors

0:34:00.730 --> 0:34:02.590
<v Speaker 2>in this defense, especially with Chad to set coming off

0:34:02.650 --> 0:34:05.970
<v Speaker 2>a bi-week extra preparation time going against this Colts team

0:34:06.010 --> 0:34:08.989
<v Speaker 2>and the Steichen. So yeah, it's unfortunate. It's like, I

0:34:09.010 --> 0:34:10.750
<v Speaker 2>thought the pros would be all over the Colts, but

0:34:10.770 --> 0:34:13.130
<v Speaker 2>Chad said, it's like the pros, I mean, it's split.

0:34:13.190 --> 0:34:17.130
<v Speaker 2>It's not really heavy Minnesota, but it's way more pros

0:34:17.190 --> 0:34:20.089
<v Speaker 2>on Minnesota than they are on the Colts. And I'm not,

0:34:20.210 --> 0:34:22.700
<v Speaker 2>not surprising to see this number go up without that

0:34:22.739 --> 0:34:25.069
<v Speaker 2>respect being paid to him. So, Yeah, another game I'm

0:34:25.090 --> 0:34:26.810
<v Speaker 2>having a tough time with because it's like my instincts

0:34:26.850 --> 0:34:29.529
<v Speaker 2>are telling me, you should be taking the Colts here.

0:34:29.550 --> 0:34:31.790
<v Speaker 2>This is the Colts' time. But the more you break

0:34:31.830 --> 0:34:33.870
<v Speaker 2>it down and look into it, it's like, actually, this

0:34:33.910 --> 0:34:37.469
<v Speaker 2>Vikings team, there might be a really legit 5-0 team.

0:34:37.570 --> 0:34:39.610
<v Speaker 2>That might be a little underrated in my mindset.

0:34:40.110 --> 0:34:43.510
<v Speaker 1>Simon, I don't know if it's you and I having

0:34:43.550 --> 0:34:46.410
<v Speaker 1>done this show together for so long that we are

0:34:46.450 --> 0:34:53.230
<v Speaker 1>drifting into the same pattern of thinking or if just–

0:34:53.880 --> 0:34:56.040
<v Speaker 1>We're looking at some of these teams that are really

0:34:56.080 --> 0:35:02.640
<v Speaker 1>bad and we see that Dolphins value, but the Colts

0:35:02.680 --> 0:35:05.500
<v Speaker 1>are going in a different direction between Cass in the

0:35:05.540 --> 0:35:09.040
<v Speaker 1>front office, Daniel Jones not being where he should be.

0:35:09.520 --> 0:35:14.609
<v Speaker 1>Are they being overvalued still because of who they have been?

0:35:15.650 --> 0:35:18.029
<v Speaker 1>Because I came around to the Vikings too. I wanted

0:35:18.050 --> 0:35:20.850
<v Speaker 1>to be in the Colts all week. I want to

0:35:20.890 --> 0:35:22.910
<v Speaker 1>believe in the Colts. I bet the Colts last week

0:35:22.950 --> 0:35:25.750
<v Speaker 1>against Tennessee. If I hadn't been kicked out of my survivor,

0:35:26.290 --> 0:35:29.790
<v Speaker 1>I would have had him in my survivor. So to me,

0:35:31.860 --> 0:35:33.590
<v Speaker 1>getting on the Vikings is a little bit of a

0:35:33.640 --> 0:35:35.860
<v Speaker 1>surprise and a little bit of a change in my mindset.

0:35:37.200 --> 0:35:40.820
<v Speaker 1>It'll be interesting if we ultimately end up having to

0:35:40.860 --> 0:35:42.120
<v Speaker 1>put this team into the contest.

0:35:42.520 --> 0:35:44.620
<v Speaker 2>Now, real quick, obviously, you've been in media a lot

0:35:44.660 --> 0:35:51.150
<v Speaker 2>longer than me. How does it work where these reporters are–

0:35:51.170 --> 0:35:53.009
<v Speaker 2>I don't want to call them mouthpiece, but why do

0:35:53.030 --> 0:35:54.530
<v Speaker 2>they love this guy Ballard?

0:35:55.010 --> 0:35:55.450
<v Speaker 1>I don't know.

0:35:55.489 --> 0:35:57.839
<v Speaker 2>Why are they making excuses for this man? I mean,

0:35:57.860 --> 0:36:00.259
<v Speaker 2>the amount of people I've said that were like, if

0:36:00.340 --> 0:36:03.480
<v Speaker 2>only it had worked out with Andrew Luck. Do people

0:36:03.500 --> 0:36:05.339
<v Speaker 2>not realize he had total control of that offensive line

0:36:05.360 --> 0:36:08.660
<v Speaker 2>and he's part of the reason why Andrew Luck is

0:36:08.700 --> 0:36:11.590
<v Speaker 2>no longer in football and he retired? The amount of

0:36:11.610 --> 0:36:13.850
<v Speaker 2>grace a man has been given who never won a

0:36:13.870 --> 0:36:16.930
<v Speaker 2>division in 10 years– very bizarre to see the media

0:36:16.969 --> 0:36:18.870
<v Speaker 2>come out and just talk about how good of a

0:36:18.890 --> 0:36:19.469
<v Speaker 2>guy he is.

0:36:19.570 --> 0:36:20.350
<v Speaker 1>So here's my take.

0:36:20.430 --> 0:36:21.290
<v Speaker 2>All this stuff on Ballard.

0:36:22.350 --> 0:36:29.319
<v Speaker 1>I do think that he was managing a pretty challenging

0:36:29.540 --> 0:36:34.279
<v Speaker 1>ownership situation in Jim Irsay, number one. Number two, by

0:36:34.340 --> 0:36:36.360
<v Speaker 1>all accounts, and I don't know him personally, but I

0:36:36.380 --> 0:36:39.000
<v Speaker 1>do keep up with what happens in Indiana. I just

0:36:39.040 --> 0:36:42.390
<v Speaker 1>have a lot of friendships there and connections there. And

0:36:42.430 --> 0:36:45.620
<v Speaker 1>so I keep up with what happens in media in Indianapolis.

0:36:46.580 --> 0:36:48.700
<v Speaker 1>He is a lovely guy who did a ton in

0:36:48.739 --> 0:36:51.840
<v Speaker 1>the community and that's gonna get you some goodwill. And

0:36:51.860 --> 0:36:54.370
<v Speaker 1>at the end of the day, like if you're accessible

0:36:54.670 --> 0:36:57.730
<v Speaker 1>and you're explaining your process and you're giving people insight

0:36:57.750 --> 0:37:01.990
<v Speaker 1>into how you make decisions, that gives you the benefit

0:37:02.030 --> 0:37:07.669
<v Speaker 1>of the doubt, whether that's on purpose or whether it's inadvertent,

0:37:08.810 --> 0:37:11.239
<v Speaker 1>it is what happens. Like if you're able as a

0:37:11.300 --> 0:37:14.800
<v Speaker 1>media person to translate what a decision maker is thinking

0:37:14.840 --> 0:37:18.160
<v Speaker 1>and how they're going through their decision making process, that

0:37:18.219 --> 0:37:20.780
<v Speaker 1>makes you a little more sympathetic and helps you understand

0:37:20.840 --> 0:37:22.799
<v Speaker 1>a little bit better as you are translating it for

0:37:22.850 --> 0:37:26.790
<v Speaker 1>the public who they are and what they're doing. Sometimes

0:37:26.830 --> 0:37:29.750
<v Speaker 1>that can be construed as people being sympathetic. I am

0:37:29.810 --> 0:37:32.410
<v Speaker 1>seeing people popping up like you and other people locally

0:37:32.450 --> 0:37:34.390
<v Speaker 1>being like, why have we been giving this guy the

0:37:34.430 --> 0:37:36.680
<v Speaker 1>benefit of the doubt the whole time? He's never done anything.

0:37:37.260 --> 0:37:39.540
<v Speaker 1>But those are some of the reasons why. Don't disagree.

0:37:39.560 --> 0:37:45.330
<v Speaker 1>The product in the field has been inconsistently subpar compared

0:37:45.390 --> 0:37:48.690
<v Speaker 1>to the level of attention and expectation that people have

0:37:48.730 --> 0:37:53.560
<v Speaker 1>been ascribing to this team. A hundred percent.

0:37:54.540 --> 0:37:57.939
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. And just put a bone. I just, there's so

0:37:57.980 --> 0:38:01.580
<v Speaker 2>many good GMs out there actually win that don't get

0:38:01.600 --> 0:38:04.330
<v Speaker 2>the love and praise in the media. Like this guy did.

0:38:04.390 --> 0:38:06.890
<v Speaker 2>Like I just, Even if you're saying he's a good,

0:38:06.930 --> 0:38:08.770
<v Speaker 2>nice guy, there's so many videos I could point to

0:38:08.810 --> 0:38:10.830
<v Speaker 2>of him in the draft mocking other teams and laughing

0:38:11.030 --> 0:38:12.730
<v Speaker 2>about how smart his draft picks were and stuff like that,

0:38:12.750 --> 0:38:15.489
<v Speaker 2>where it's like, dude, you do not have the track record.

0:38:15.530 --> 0:38:18.150
<v Speaker 2>You have nothing. You have nothing to back this up.

0:38:18.230 --> 0:38:20.569
<v Speaker 2>So that jumped off me right away, where you had

0:38:20.590 --> 0:38:22.420
<v Speaker 2>people going to bat for him right away, where it's like,

0:38:22.780 --> 0:38:25.980
<v Speaker 2>he'll pop up somewhere else. He'll get another job. This

0:38:26.020 --> 0:38:29.439
<v Speaker 2>is a great man, a great GM. It's like, great GM?

0:38:29.660 --> 0:38:31.680
<v Speaker 2>What in the world are we doing now? So, yeah,

0:38:31.739 --> 0:38:33.940
<v Speaker 2>like you said, it's a lot of turmoil behind the

0:38:33.960 --> 0:38:35.200
<v Speaker 2>scenes right now in the Colts.

0:38:36.280 --> 0:38:38.259
<v Speaker 1>For the late afternoon games, we had a trio of

0:38:38.300 --> 0:38:41.920
<v Speaker 1>games on Tuesday. We did not understand the number. Interested

0:38:41.960 --> 0:38:46.509
<v Speaker 1>in getting some sharp call feedback. We got some of it. Denver, Arizona.

0:38:47.150 --> 0:38:50.150
<v Speaker 1>This line is starting to move to four in a

0:38:50.190 --> 0:38:54.310
<v Speaker 1>couple places. I've just been surprised, and you mentioned it,

0:38:54.710 --> 0:38:59.359
<v Speaker 1>by the Denver love from professionals. Bo Nix has not

0:38:59.400 --> 0:39:03.989
<v Speaker 1>been scrambling. He's been a subpar quarterback. The Cardinals have

0:39:04.030 --> 0:39:07.109
<v Speaker 1>been a much more competitive, fiery team. They look like

0:39:07.150 --> 0:39:09.470
<v Speaker 1>they want to play and they want to play hard.

0:39:09.530 --> 0:39:11.569
<v Speaker 1>The Broncos look like they're hanging on to every game

0:39:11.610 --> 0:39:16.980
<v Speaker 1>by their fingernails. Sometimes they are. Why are people backing

0:39:17.040 --> 0:39:19.820
<v Speaker 1>a bad, a Bo Nix who's not playing well generally

0:39:20.280 --> 0:39:24.730
<v Speaker 1>and plays badly on the road? Why would anybody be

0:39:24.790 --> 0:39:26.710
<v Speaker 1>backing the Broncos here? You and I have been wanting

0:39:26.730 --> 0:39:28.370
<v Speaker 1>to be on the Cardinals. I was hoping sharp calls

0:39:28.390 --> 0:39:31.330
<v Speaker 1>would be like, yeah, take the Cardinals. We're seeing money

0:39:31.430 --> 0:39:34.730
<v Speaker 1>move the line to the Cardinals direction, but I kind

0:39:34.770 --> 0:39:36.730
<v Speaker 1>of wanted to hear a consensus and we're not getting that.

0:39:38.750 --> 0:39:40.930
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. It's been funny though. I, I, the calls I

0:39:40.969 --> 0:39:43.160
<v Speaker 2>got were just about how we're, we're really missing this

0:39:43.239 --> 0:39:45.009
<v Speaker 2>one here on Denver and that we should be all

0:39:45.050 --> 0:39:47.420
<v Speaker 2>over Denver. And this is just the exact type of

0:39:47.460 --> 0:39:49.440
<v Speaker 2>game a team gets right in the NFL, right? If,

0:39:49.700 --> 0:39:52.939
<v Speaker 2>Like I said, all these weeks you see here, people,

0:39:53.000 --> 0:39:55.120
<v Speaker 2>it's really telling by the books where they're like, okay,

0:39:55.140 --> 0:39:57.180
<v Speaker 2>we still think Denver's a playoff team and a really

0:39:57.200 --> 0:39:59.040
<v Speaker 2>good team. We do not think the Cardinals are a

0:39:59.080 --> 0:40:00.680
<v Speaker 2>playoff team and a really good team. That's what this

0:40:00.719 --> 0:40:03.960
<v Speaker 2>line reflecting. Our public perception is Cardinals just beat the Rams.

0:40:04.060 --> 0:40:05.940
<v Speaker 2>They're such a good team. We're both being sucked into that.

0:40:06.560 --> 0:40:08.590
<v Speaker 2>Are we not giving enough respect to the Broncos just

0:40:08.610 --> 0:40:12.430
<v Speaker 2>beating Seattle at home? And now they've extended rest. They're

0:40:12.450 --> 0:40:14.110
<v Speaker 2>going to play against a bad corner. I mean, we've

0:40:14.130 --> 0:40:16.650
<v Speaker 2>talked about it. The Broncos have played a juggernaut of

0:40:16.710 --> 0:40:17.569
<v Speaker 2>a schedule to start the season.

0:40:17.590 --> 0:40:18.690
<v Speaker 1>Yes, that's true.

0:40:19.110 --> 0:40:20.989
<v Speaker 2>That might be what's messing with us right now is

0:40:21.030 --> 0:40:24.890
<v Speaker 2>just we've seen Denver. All right, obviously Chargers are not

0:40:24.910 --> 0:40:26.870
<v Speaker 2>a juggernaut, but that's a divisional game on the road.

0:40:26.890 --> 0:40:29.490
<v Speaker 2>I told you that was his scheduled loss for Denver

0:40:29.820 --> 0:40:32.880
<v Speaker 2>coming into the year. That number, I believe the Chargers

0:40:32.900 --> 0:40:35.759
<v Speaker 2>were minus 2.5 to look ahead in the summer, and

0:40:36.080 --> 0:40:38.700
<v Speaker 2>Denver closed up minus 3.5. And, oh, my God, all

0:40:38.719 --> 0:40:41.319
<v Speaker 2>the pro money was on the Chargers. We obviously took

0:40:41.340 --> 0:40:42.890
<v Speaker 2>the Denver side, and we felt like we got lucky.

0:40:43.650 --> 0:40:45.049
<v Speaker 2>But at the same time, that's been the story all

0:40:45.070 --> 0:40:48.450
<v Speaker 2>year with the Chargers. They've been blowing these games where Denver, okay,

0:40:48.469 --> 0:40:50.270
<v Speaker 2>they got away with one there, but if you look

0:40:50.290 --> 0:40:53.770
<v Speaker 2>at their schedule, they beat Jacksonville. They beat the Rams.

0:40:53.810 --> 0:40:55.569
<v Speaker 2>They lost to the 49ers, but me and you talked

0:40:55.590 --> 0:40:59.170
<v Speaker 2>about that game. That game flipped after that muffed punt. Like,

0:40:59.570 --> 0:41:01.049
<v Speaker 2>Denver was getting the ball back with a chance to

0:41:01.090 --> 0:41:03.219
<v Speaker 2>take a lead in that game. Muffed the punt. The

0:41:03.280 --> 0:41:06.520
<v Speaker 2>49ers just rolled them from that point forward. So, I

0:41:06.600 --> 0:41:08.580
<v Speaker 2>think we're just underrating the Denver too much because they

0:41:08.600 --> 0:41:10.399
<v Speaker 2>were so good last year and we expected to look

0:41:10.480 --> 0:41:12.590
<v Speaker 2>one way with Bo and Nick. So, This is a

0:41:12.610 --> 0:41:14.290
<v Speaker 2>game where I think maybe come Sunday I can talk

0:41:14.310 --> 0:41:16.069
<v Speaker 2>you into the Denver side, but I get it where

0:41:16.090 --> 0:41:17.870
<v Speaker 2>you're sitting here right now. It's too fresh, too new.

0:41:17.890 --> 0:41:20.450
<v Speaker 2>Where I'm like you, I took a lot of calls

0:41:20.489 --> 0:41:22.509
<v Speaker 2>and a lot of beating for me to be like, oh,

0:41:22.530 --> 0:41:24.340
<v Speaker 2>my God. I see what these people are saying. I

0:41:24.400 --> 0:41:26.980
<v Speaker 2>see why Denver is the right side. We're a little

0:41:27.020 --> 0:41:29.400
<v Speaker 2>too overrated on the Cardinals. And then we're both just

0:41:29.420 --> 0:41:31.339
<v Speaker 2>hurting from last week where it's like we were all

0:41:31.360 --> 0:41:33.960
<v Speaker 2>over the Cardinals. We missed it. We're missing again this

0:41:33.980 --> 0:41:36.689
<v Speaker 2>week with the Cardinals. And I just– I don't see

0:41:36.730 --> 0:41:39.810
<v Speaker 2>it where I can see Denver's defense getting stops and offensively.

0:41:40.850 --> 0:41:44.930
<v Speaker 2>I really like this matchup, honestly, for Denver's offense. So, yeah, pretty,

0:41:45.010 --> 0:41:47.150
<v Speaker 2>pretty interesting where this is a get right spot technically

0:41:47.170 --> 0:41:49.640
<v Speaker 2>by the sports books. And like Chad said, this is

0:41:50.620 --> 0:41:51.840
<v Speaker 2>four and a half, a lot of shops. There's a

0:41:51.860 --> 0:41:54.680
<v Speaker 2>couple of books I've already popped up before. So a

0:41:54.700 --> 0:41:56.340
<v Speaker 2>game I can be patient. If there are pros on

0:41:56.380 --> 0:41:58.339
<v Speaker 2>Arizona side, like me and Chad were early in the week,

0:41:58.840 --> 0:42:00.600
<v Speaker 2>maybe this does get bumped down to three and a half.

0:42:00.660 --> 0:42:03.219
<v Speaker 2>So I'll be patient here. But yeah, another game where

0:42:03.239 --> 0:42:05.260
<v Speaker 2>I'm either on Denver or nothing. It's, it's kind of weird.

0:42:06.190 --> 0:42:09.450
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, maybe you're right. There could be some lingering, God,

0:42:09.489 --> 0:42:13.270
<v Speaker 1>I can't believe we were so stupid about the Cardinals

0:42:13.310 --> 0:42:15.650
<v Speaker 1>last week when we had it in our fingers and

0:42:15.690 --> 0:42:20.410
<v Speaker 1>it slipped through. Maybe we're outsmarting ourselves. Maybe we're saying

0:42:20.469 --> 0:42:25.460
<v Speaker 1>we know more. We're blind to Denver's failings or Denver's

0:42:25.680 --> 0:42:29.380
<v Speaker 1>potential success because of the schedule. All very good points.

0:42:30.920 --> 0:42:33.880
<v Speaker 1>I think we're talking ourselves in circles here. Who knows?

0:42:34.100 --> 0:42:40.710
<v Speaker 1>Green Bay at Detroit. Detroit off a buy. Brian Branch,

0:42:40.810 --> 0:42:43.910
<v Speaker 1>Detroit safety, will play in the first game since tearing

0:42:43.950 --> 0:42:48.009
<v Speaker 1>his Achilles last year. Expectation is he'll play 80% of

0:42:48.030 --> 0:42:53.549
<v Speaker 1>the snaps, definitely third downs, definitely passing situations. This is

0:42:53.590 --> 0:42:56.850
<v Speaker 1>a wild one. All the data, all the love showing

0:42:57.390 --> 0:43:01.189
<v Speaker 1>that it's going in the Packers' direction. Some of the money.

0:43:02.800 --> 0:43:07.339
<v Speaker 1>But some group is definitely hammering the Lions because this

0:43:07.400 --> 0:43:10.110
<v Speaker 1>line has moved from three, three and a half in

0:43:10.140 --> 0:43:13.330
<v Speaker 1>some places. It's juiced to three and a half if

0:43:13.370 --> 0:43:18.049
<v Speaker 1>it's still at three. I'm on the Lions already. I

0:43:18.070 --> 0:43:22.710
<v Speaker 1>bet the Lions, I think at minus three. I get

0:43:22.750 --> 0:43:24.890
<v Speaker 1>why people like the Packers, but I feel like this

0:43:24.950 --> 0:43:28.450
<v Speaker 1>is a trap spot for a team that we've already

0:43:28.469 --> 0:43:31.020
<v Speaker 1>talked about. We got to bet the Packers futures. I

0:43:31.060 --> 0:43:34.259
<v Speaker 1>get it. Long-term, I like them. This doesn't feel like

0:43:34.280 --> 0:43:35.120
<v Speaker 1>a great spot to me.

0:43:36.739 --> 0:43:39.140
<v Speaker 2>Totally agree. I don't get it. I get, I got

0:43:39.180 --> 0:43:40.779
<v Speaker 2>why pros are betting at plus three and a half

0:43:40.820 --> 0:43:43.860
<v Speaker 2>on the Packers, but at minus three, especially minus two

0:43:43.880 --> 0:43:46.960
<v Speaker 2>and a half, it probably markets like, yeah, to me,

0:43:47.020 --> 0:43:48.980
<v Speaker 2>it's a lion's better than nothing at all. It's just,

0:43:49.800 --> 0:43:51.839
<v Speaker 2>we have to sell Green Bay at some point. Like

0:43:51.860 --> 0:43:54.180
<v Speaker 2>we just talked about, they did. They're coming off incredible wins.

0:43:55.140 --> 0:43:58.529
<v Speaker 2>You could say, you know, that defense, it was a

0:43:58.530 --> 0:44:01.490
<v Speaker 2>little fluky against Dallas. They had things really break their way,

0:44:01.530 --> 0:44:03.790
<v Speaker 2>but when I went back and watched the film, I

0:44:03.810 --> 0:44:05.810
<v Speaker 2>just think it was an amazing game plan by Gannon. Like,

0:44:05.830 --> 0:44:09.779
<v Speaker 2>he just really– obviously, he faced Dak multiple times being

0:44:10.390 --> 0:44:13.860
<v Speaker 2>on the Eagles team. And, you know, their offense is

0:44:13.880 --> 0:44:16.919
<v Speaker 2>going to change a little bit from Schottenheimer to– from

0:44:17.400 --> 0:44:21.080
<v Speaker 2>McVay or McCarthy. But I just– I couldn't believe how

0:44:21.180 --> 0:44:24.320
<v Speaker 2>good Green Bay's defense was in that matchup, especially the secondary-wise.

0:44:24.380 --> 0:44:27.580
<v Speaker 2>And that, to me, I told you what the pros

0:44:27.620 --> 0:44:30.560
<v Speaker 2>are banking on here, which is just both these units

0:44:30.580 --> 0:44:34.000
<v Speaker 2>have elite offenses– One team has a defense that's shown

0:44:34.060 --> 0:44:36.220
<v Speaker 2>up this year where you cannot say the same for Detroit.

0:44:36.239 --> 0:44:40.160
<v Speaker 2>Detroit's defense, you know, the least amount of points they

0:44:40.200 --> 0:44:43.080
<v Speaker 2>gave up this year, Chad, was the week before their

0:44:43.100 --> 0:44:45.670
<v Speaker 2>bye week, which was 21 points to the Cardinals. So,

0:44:47.050 --> 0:44:48.730
<v Speaker 2>I mean, that's all you need to know about this

0:44:49.489 --> 0:44:51.989
<v Speaker 2>Detroit team. I mean, they gave up 24 points to

0:44:52.030 --> 0:44:56.550
<v Speaker 2>the Jets. I mean, they just, they're a terrible, terrible defense.

0:44:56.590 --> 0:45:00.180
<v Speaker 2>And that's my pause here, where it's just, I get

0:45:00.239 --> 0:45:04.529
<v Speaker 2>why We're hesitant to back Green Bay, but a three

0:45:04.570 --> 0:45:06.590
<v Speaker 2>and a half, I totally get why pros are hammering

0:45:06.610 --> 0:45:09.450
<v Speaker 2>that side. It's just with that hook, with the suspect

0:45:09.469 --> 0:45:11.230
<v Speaker 2>defense you have in the Lions, you just always feel

0:45:11.250 --> 0:45:12.270
<v Speaker 2>like you have a chance. But I think we're on

0:45:12.290 --> 0:45:14.830
<v Speaker 2>the same page of we think Green Bay is due

0:45:14.870 --> 0:45:17.049
<v Speaker 2>for a letdown game on the flip side. You have

0:45:17.090 --> 0:45:20.529
<v Speaker 2>a well-rested Lions team that, you know, should take care

0:45:20.550 --> 0:45:23.450
<v Speaker 2>of business in this home spot. So, yeah, just another

0:45:23.469 --> 0:45:25.279
<v Speaker 2>game I can't get a read on, honestly. Like, if

0:45:25.300 --> 0:45:28.520
<v Speaker 2>you're more heavily opinionated and you're slamming the table with

0:45:28.540 --> 0:45:30.799
<v Speaker 2>the Detroit Lions Sunday morning, I'm not going to fight

0:45:30.820 --> 0:45:32.670
<v Speaker 2>you on that. Just I have not bet invested in

0:45:32.710 --> 0:45:33.330
<v Speaker 2>this game heavily.

0:45:33.969 --> 0:45:35.650
<v Speaker 1>My fear is that the Lions going to stay at

0:45:35.670 --> 0:45:36.930
<v Speaker 1>three and a half. It's a three and a half

0:45:36.950 --> 0:45:39.630
<v Speaker 1>in the contest right now. That's not where you want

0:45:39.650 --> 0:45:41.310
<v Speaker 1>to bet the Lions. The one thing I'll say about

0:45:41.330 --> 0:45:44.940
<v Speaker 1>the Packers defense, the Cowboys barely ran the ball. They

0:45:44.960 --> 0:45:48.340
<v Speaker 1>had 15 rushing attempts. Look back at what Bijan Robinson

0:45:48.500 --> 0:45:50.920
<v Speaker 1>and the Falcons did against the Packers. Can Jameer Gibbs

0:45:50.960 --> 0:45:53.839
<v Speaker 1>do that against the Packers? Gannon got a little bit

0:45:53.880 --> 0:45:56.910
<v Speaker 1>bailed out by the fact that Brian Schottenheimer just decided

0:45:56.950 --> 0:46:00.600
<v Speaker 1>not to run the ball on that defense anymore. apologize

0:46:00.620 --> 0:46:03.480
<v Speaker 1>if everyone's hearing the sirens. It's the sirens calling us

0:46:03.540 --> 0:46:08.120
<v Speaker 1>to bet on the Detroit Lions. The Los Angeles Rams

0:46:08.200 --> 0:46:12.820
<v Speaker 1>visiting the Las Vegas Raiders. Dude, this number has moved big,

0:46:13.700 --> 0:46:18.419
<v Speaker 1>down to three and a half. So listen, we love

0:46:18.440 --> 0:46:21.140
<v Speaker 1>the luck rankings from Nick Giffen over at Action Network.

0:46:21.840 --> 0:46:24.430
<v Speaker 1>The Rams this season are one of the most unlucky

0:46:24.489 --> 0:46:29.450
<v Speaker 1>teams in the NFL. Are they just undisciplined? Are they

0:46:29.469 --> 0:46:32.219
<v Speaker 1>a bad football team? The number was at five and

0:46:32.239 --> 0:46:35.680
<v Speaker 1>a half. It's moved a full two points, not yet

0:46:35.719 --> 0:46:37.780
<v Speaker 1>through a key number, but it's getting close to three.

0:46:37.800 --> 0:46:43.660
<v Speaker 1>I've been wanting to bet the Rams all week. Am

0:46:43.719 --> 0:46:47.230
<v Speaker 1>I misguided? Am I seeing something that isn't there? Am

0:46:47.290 --> 0:46:48.930
<v Speaker 1>I just thinking I want to get off the Raiders

0:46:48.969 --> 0:46:52.569
<v Speaker 1>bandwagon because we've been winning with them so much and

0:46:52.630 --> 0:46:54.430
<v Speaker 1>it feels like now the public is all over the

0:46:54.489 --> 0:46:58.450
<v Speaker 1>Raiders because of how they covered against the Buffalo Bills

0:46:58.489 --> 0:47:00.920
<v Speaker 1>last week. Where's your head?

0:47:01.500 --> 0:47:03.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'm like you. I'm dug in on the Raiders,

0:47:03.300 --> 0:47:05.400
<v Speaker 2>and I never understood this line, and it makes me

0:47:05.440 --> 0:47:06.960
<v Speaker 2>happy to see it going to three and a half.

0:47:07.260 --> 0:47:09.020
<v Speaker 1>You're dug in on the Raiders, whereas I want to

0:47:09.060 --> 0:47:09.740
<v Speaker 1>be on the Rams.

0:47:10.080 --> 0:47:11.980
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah. And it's nice to see, though, it's going

0:47:12.000 --> 0:47:14.020
<v Speaker 2>to three and a half, because at least I'm not alone,

0:47:14.180 --> 0:47:17.080
<v Speaker 2>where it's never good to be all on the public side,

0:47:17.219 --> 0:47:18.739
<v Speaker 2>and it's nice to see there's other pros with me.

0:47:19.420 --> 0:47:21.420
<v Speaker 2>Didn't really get many calls about it, honestly. Like, it's

0:47:21.440 --> 0:47:23.279
<v Speaker 2>just another game where I think a lot of guys

0:47:23.300 --> 0:47:25.310
<v Speaker 2>the same view as you. It's like, Is this not

0:47:25.330 --> 0:47:27.089
<v Speaker 2>the time to jump off this Raiders train? And my

0:47:27.110 --> 0:47:29.820
<v Speaker 2>whole view of it is the books still are accounting

0:47:29.840 --> 0:47:32.160
<v Speaker 2>for how bad this Rams team is, the morality of

0:47:32.180 --> 0:47:34.620
<v Speaker 2>this team, and then the injuries. The injuries cannot be

0:47:34.800 --> 0:47:38.980
<v Speaker 2>understated enough. This is a team that they went, I mean,

0:47:39.000 --> 0:47:41.920
<v Speaker 2>if we're talking fantasy football, like you're talking fantasy football,

0:47:42.719 --> 0:47:45.400
<v Speaker 2>you basically, people have drafts where they go boom or bust, right?

0:47:45.420 --> 0:47:47.520
<v Speaker 2>If you do an auction draft, you spend all your

0:47:47.580 --> 0:47:49.200
<v Speaker 2>money on three or four players and you fill the

0:47:49.219 --> 0:47:51.700
<v Speaker 2>rest of your team out with just scrubs. Is that

0:47:51.760 --> 0:47:54.299
<v Speaker 2>not what the Rams roster is? Like they're a team

0:47:54.340 --> 0:47:57.600
<v Speaker 2>that totally went boom or bust. They don't have some

0:47:57.680 --> 0:47:59.900
<v Speaker 2>rookie on some, you know, some quarterback on a rookie contract.

0:47:59.920 --> 0:48:03.319
<v Speaker 2>They have a really expensive quarterback to, you know, really

0:48:03.360 --> 0:48:07.010
<v Speaker 2>expensive defensive pieces in Aaron Donald, Miles Garrett, which are

0:48:07.510 --> 0:48:10.370
<v Speaker 2>giving you a zero per game. Like Aaron Donald, I

0:48:10.390 --> 0:48:13.150
<v Speaker 2>give out those stats on, he has two, two solo tackles,

0:48:13.190 --> 0:48:15.750
<v Speaker 2>I believe. And that's it. Now you did have a

0:48:15.770 --> 0:48:18.430
<v Speaker 2>sack taken away in a penalty, but I'm just saying

0:48:18.450 --> 0:48:20.770
<v Speaker 2>like Aaron, Aaron Donald is not who Aaron Donald used

0:48:20.810 --> 0:48:22.509
<v Speaker 2>to be. They don't even have miles. Gary on that

0:48:22.530 --> 0:48:25.279
<v Speaker 2>D line. Now you're down two starting D tackles in

0:48:25.300 --> 0:48:27.439
<v Speaker 2>that D line. And it just sucks where the Raiders

0:48:27.480 --> 0:48:29.620
<v Speaker 2>can't run the ball because that's where they take advantage

0:48:29.700 --> 0:48:32.140
<v Speaker 2>of it. But it's also a big advantage where Kirk,

0:48:32.200 --> 0:48:35.460
<v Speaker 2>his weakness has always been, which we all know, pressure

0:48:35.540 --> 0:48:37.940
<v Speaker 2>up the middle. Kirk, he is a true stand in

0:48:37.960 --> 0:48:41.740
<v Speaker 2>the pocket, on his spot type of quarterback. You're taking

0:48:41.760 --> 0:48:44.900
<v Speaker 2>that away with the Rams. You don't have any pressure

0:48:44.940 --> 0:48:47.670
<v Speaker 2>up the middle, let alone on the edges. So I

0:48:47.710 --> 0:48:49.890
<v Speaker 2>don't know. It just feels like another really bad spot

0:48:49.910 --> 0:48:52.630
<v Speaker 2>for this Rams team. They're still inflated by public perception.

0:48:52.850 --> 0:48:56.629
<v Speaker 2>It's just, If you take away their name, in what

0:48:56.670 --> 0:48:58.430
<v Speaker 2>world are they a four and a half point favorite

0:48:58.450 --> 0:49:01.040
<v Speaker 2>over a Raiders team that lost by three points to

0:49:01.080 --> 0:49:04.219
<v Speaker 2>the Chiefs at home and lost three points to the

0:49:04.239 --> 0:49:08.220
<v Speaker 2>Bills at home? Two better, playing better, more complete teams

0:49:08.260 --> 0:49:11.239
<v Speaker 2>right now. And our hesitation for me and you is

0:49:11.800 --> 0:49:14.910
<v Speaker 2>both those covers for us were miracle covers by Kirk Cousins.

0:49:15.650 --> 0:49:17.129
<v Speaker 2>And that to me is the fear that you have

0:49:17.150 --> 0:49:19.570
<v Speaker 2>that I have the same fear where that's playing in

0:49:19.590 --> 0:49:20.980
<v Speaker 2>the back of my head. but maybe that's simply who

0:49:21.020 --> 0:49:23.160
<v Speaker 2>the Raiders are this year and I'm willing to die

0:49:23.200 --> 0:49:25.759
<v Speaker 2>on that hill with them and um this is another

0:49:25.780 --> 0:49:28.630
<v Speaker 2>game where like you said it's tons of respect and

0:49:28.670 --> 0:49:30.489
<v Speaker 2>money or we're on the Rams they're holding the Rams

0:49:30.510 --> 0:49:32.370
<v Speaker 2>number up at four and a half some shops are

0:49:32.390 --> 0:49:34.950
<v Speaker 2>still at five now you're seeing the pro money coming

0:49:34.969 --> 0:49:36.410
<v Speaker 2>on the Raiders and now they're at three and a

0:49:36.410 --> 0:49:39.370
<v Speaker 2>half at a couple different shops so Yeah, this is

0:49:39.410 --> 0:49:41.870
<v Speaker 2>a true tug-of-war between pro groups right now where it's just,

0:49:42.050 --> 0:49:43.770
<v Speaker 2>are you really buying this Rams team and believing to

0:49:43.810 --> 0:49:45.230
<v Speaker 2>let down the Raiders team? Or are you on the

0:49:45.270 --> 0:49:47.800
<v Speaker 2>flip side like me where it's just like, this Rams

0:49:47.840 --> 0:49:51.640
<v Speaker 2>team is battered mentally and they have so many injuries.

0:49:51.680 --> 0:49:54.920
<v Speaker 2>This is truly the ultimate test for McVay because McVay

0:49:54.940 --> 0:49:57.900
<v Speaker 2>has rallied bad teams to be good. How do you

0:49:57.940 --> 0:49:59.339
<v Speaker 2>rally a team that was supposed to be the team

0:49:59.380 --> 0:50:04.790
<v Speaker 2>of destiny, right? The odds-on plus 400 favorite to win

0:50:04.810 --> 0:50:08.370
<v Speaker 2>a Super Bowl. They're just, man. I don't think this

0:50:08.450 --> 0:50:10.270
<v Speaker 2>is rock bottom yet. That's my whole point. I think

0:50:10.330 --> 0:50:13.069
<v Speaker 2>it can keep getting worse. So I told you where

0:50:13.090 --> 0:50:15.030
<v Speaker 2>you're getting come from, Chad. This is usually a spiral.

0:50:15.070 --> 0:50:16.969
<v Speaker 2>I'd be all over the Rams, but I don't think

0:50:17.010 --> 0:50:18.410
<v Speaker 2>we have just enough for the injuries. If they were

0:50:18.430 --> 0:50:21.049
<v Speaker 2>fully healthy, I'd be all over them. But taking away

0:50:21.070 --> 0:50:24.640
<v Speaker 2>Devontae Smith as well, it's a lot to ask.

0:50:27.239 --> 0:50:30.980
<v Speaker 1>The Raiders have just been much more competitive. They play

0:50:31.020 --> 0:50:33.719
<v Speaker 1>with more fire. They play with more energy. It's why

0:50:33.760 --> 0:50:36.560
<v Speaker 1>we backed them against the Bills. I totally get it.

0:50:38.710 --> 0:50:40.529
<v Speaker 1>I haven't bet the Raiders, so I feel like I've

0:50:40.570 --> 0:50:45.050
<v Speaker 1>missed the best of the number here. I'd be kicking

0:50:45.090 --> 0:50:49.470
<v Speaker 1>myself if I bet into him now. I just want

0:50:49.489 --> 0:50:53.049
<v Speaker 1>this to be the Rams. But sometimes you can't will

0:50:53.090 --> 0:50:57.560
<v Speaker 1>these things to happen, Simon. Kansas City at Seattle. Another

0:50:57.640 --> 0:51:01.660
<v Speaker 1>battle between the very lucky Chiefs and the very unlucky Seahawks.

0:51:02.660 --> 0:51:04.419
<v Speaker 1>You and I, and we talked about this, I'm glad

0:51:04.460 --> 0:51:06.219
<v Speaker 1>we did it. We've taken a stand on the lucky.

0:51:06.580 --> 0:51:09.340
<v Speaker 1>and just decided that the Chiefs' luck is really because

0:51:09.420 --> 0:51:14.180
<v Speaker 1>they are so good. That and betting against Mahomes as

0:51:14.219 --> 0:51:17.859
<v Speaker 1>a dog, now he has an elite running game. That

0:51:17.930 --> 0:51:22.210
<v Speaker 1>is a losing proposition. Betting on Sam Darnold when he

0:51:22.250 --> 0:51:25.190
<v Speaker 1>has to be the primary offensive weapon, that is a

0:51:25.270 --> 0:51:32.500
<v Speaker 1>losing proposition. The Chiefs are a crazy public dog. The

0:51:32.880 --> 0:51:36.330
<v Speaker 1>only betting metric that backs us here is Mahomes as

0:51:36.390 --> 0:51:40.650
<v Speaker 1>the underdog. Otherwise, everything is saying take Seattle. The wise

0:51:40.690 --> 0:51:45.090
<v Speaker 1>guys are saying take Seattle. The number is moving towards three.

0:51:47.190 --> 0:51:50.480
<v Speaker 1>There's nothing that's swaying me to get off of the

0:51:50.500 --> 0:51:51.400
<v Speaker 1>Kansas City Chiefs here.

0:51:53.810 --> 0:51:57.390
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and it's interesting hearing guys why they're taking Seattle,

0:51:57.430 --> 0:51:59.390
<v Speaker 2>and I totally get the reason, right? If you're just

0:51:59.450 --> 0:52:01.800
<v Speaker 2>a football guy, we talk all the time about this,

0:52:01.820 --> 0:52:04.510
<v Speaker 2>where these bettors, they just always go through the trial

0:52:04.530 --> 0:52:07.640
<v Speaker 2>and tribulation of the football season where you're not going 17-0, right?

0:52:07.700 --> 0:52:09.140
<v Speaker 2>You are going to lose games. You are going to

0:52:09.180 --> 0:52:11.460
<v Speaker 2>have bad games. Your offense is going to not show up. And,

0:52:12.280 --> 0:52:14.460
<v Speaker 2>you know, this year when Mahomes has what you could

0:52:14.500 --> 0:52:17.340
<v Speaker 2>see a bad game, like Chad said, Kenneth Walker stepped

0:52:17.420 --> 0:52:21.739
<v Speaker 2>up huge, and they've had those games. And, you know,

0:52:21.780 --> 0:52:26.170
<v Speaker 2>this is– a Seattle team that they're coming off a

0:52:26.210 --> 0:52:30.170
<v Speaker 2>brutal loss against the 49ers in which Sam Darnold turned

0:52:30.190 --> 0:52:31.810
<v Speaker 2>the ball over a bunch. That's why they lost the game.

0:52:32.430 --> 0:52:35.029
<v Speaker 2>Coming off a brutal loss against Denver, another game where

0:52:35.320 --> 0:52:36.920
<v Speaker 2>probably would have won it if Sam Darnold didn't turn

0:52:36.960 --> 0:52:40.379
<v Speaker 2>the ball over. So can they fix those problems? Well,

0:52:40.680 --> 0:52:43.859
<v Speaker 2>you're going against the Spags defense now, which, you know,

0:52:44.320 --> 0:52:47.620
<v Speaker 2>Chris Jones shockingly has been bad this year. When you

0:52:47.660 --> 0:52:49.430
<v Speaker 2>dive into the numbers, like he's not lived up to

0:52:49.530 --> 0:52:51.690
<v Speaker 2>what they're paying him, especially at his age. He's just,

0:52:52.460 --> 0:52:54.060
<v Speaker 2>He's looked like he's lost a little bit of a step,

0:52:54.100 --> 0:52:57.080
<v Speaker 2>but they've drafted so well. They're secondary, despite losing guys.

0:52:57.440 --> 0:52:59.180
<v Speaker 2>Because of the draft, they look better. Like, you know,

0:52:59.200 --> 0:53:01.109
<v Speaker 2>they've gotten guys back off scene for agency. It's just

0:53:01.700 --> 0:53:05.770
<v Speaker 2>Spaggs makes it work defensively. And I keep asking guys,

0:53:05.790 --> 0:53:07.910
<v Speaker 2>are you just simply playing the spot here with Seattle? Like,

0:53:08.070 --> 0:53:10.230
<v Speaker 2>you can't– you're telling me to bet Seattle because not

0:53:10.330 --> 0:53:12.950
<v Speaker 2>just because they're due, because you're riding with the books,

0:53:12.989 --> 0:53:14.790
<v Speaker 2>which we always talk about. If you take that position

0:53:14.810 --> 0:53:17.610
<v Speaker 2>with the sports books, let's say long-term winner in Seattle,

0:53:18.250 --> 0:53:20.910
<v Speaker 2>my fear is it's just another– I hate saying this,

0:53:20.930 --> 0:53:23.239
<v Speaker 2>but it is true. Is it a fake sharp spot?

0:53:23.430 --> 0:53:25.880
<v Speaker 2>Which I talked about that Rams against the Bills had

0:53:25.900 --> 0:53:28.400
<v Speaker 2>a lot of the same vibes where it's just all

0:53:28.460 --> 0:53:29.840
<v Speaker 2>the money in the world is coming on this home

0:53:29.940 --> 0:53:33.020
<v Speaker 2>favorite because they're due. That's what everyone kept saying. They're

0:53:33.060 --> 0:53:35.180
<v Speaker 2>due for a win. The team they're playing against is

0:53:35.219 --> 0:53:38.800
<v Speaker 2>due for a letdown. Now, there is all these lies

0:53:38.840 --> 0:53:41.359
<v Speaker 2>and rumors about Josh Allen being hurt. That's partially why

0:53:41.390 --> 0:53:44.370
<v Speaker 2>that Rams are removed like it did. There's no lies

0:53:44.430 --> 0:53:47.129
<v Speaker 2>or rumors here on this Chiefs side. This simply is

0:53:47.790 --> 0:53:49.870
<v Speaker 2>the Chiefs are overrated. They're not as good as people perceive.

0:53:50.360 --> 0:53:52.160
<v Speaker 2>Seahawks are much better than people perceive they just had

0:53:52.200 --> 0:53:55.040
<v Speaker 2>a tough schedule here and it's really Sam Darnold losing

0:53:55.060 --> 0:53:57.319
<v Speaker 2>these games for him why wouldn't Sam Darnold lose this

0:53:57.340 --> 0:53:59.859
<v Speaker 2>game once again well that's the point like that's what

0:53:59.880 --> 0:54:01.259
<v Speaker 2>I don't get where people are arguing it's like you

0:54:01.300 --> 0:54:03.219
<v Speaker 2>don't think Spags knows that you don't think Spags is

0:54:03.239 --> 0:54:05.430
<v Speaker 2>going to load the box and say hey I'll bring

0:54:05.450 --> 0:54:09.910
<v Speaker 2>the safety down I'll double JSN beat me one-on-one on

0:54:09.930 --> 0:54:12.950
<v Speaker 2>the other side with Rashid Shahid or Cooper Cup like

0:54:13.010 --> 0:54:14.970
<v Speaker 2>that's going to be the easiest game plan for Spags

0:54:15.010 --> 0:54:17.150
<v Speaker 2>here to take away what they want to do here

0:54:17.170 --> 0:54:20.259
<v Speaker 2>which is JSN so I know. I don't get this one.

0:54:20.300 --> 0:54:24.760
<v Speaker 2>I get it. The Chiefs, they had to lose eventually. Say, Sunday,

0:54:24.900 --> 0:54:27.480
<v Speaker 2>primetime game, all the money in the world, like Chad said,

0:54:27.520 --> 0:54:29.040
<v Speaker 2>is going to be on the Chiefs team. They're going

0:54:29.080 --> 0:54:33.640
<v Speaker 2>to be such a huge public dog. I've taken the

0:54:33.680 --> 0:54:36.240
<v Speaker 2>coward route here, and I've taken Chiefs just in teasers.

0:54:37.239 --> 0:54:39.029
<v Speaker 2>Plus three, though, when they touch plus three at a

0:54:39.050 --> 0:54:42.350
<v Speaker 2>couple shops, you know I bet that. Like, okay, we've

0:54:42.370 --> 0:54:44.609
<v Speaker 2>hit that point now where I have to bet this number.

0:54:44.650 --> 0:54:47.210
<v Speaker 2>It's a tricky number, so. Yeah, I hate it because

0:54:47.230 --> 0:54:49.800
<v Speaker 2>we both know we're stepping in it. We hate that.

0:54:50.010 --> 0:54:54.140
<v Speaker 2>It doesn't feel right taking the Chiefs here, but I'm

0:54:54.160 --> 0:54:56.440
<v Speaker 2>trying to be dug in on it. It feels like

0:54:56.460 --> 0:54:58.959
<v Speaker 2>this is still a Seattle line priced on last year,

0:54:58.980 --> 0:55:01.580
<v Speaker 2>where the Seattle team this year, yes, their defense is

0:55:01.600 --> 0:55:05.500
<v Speaker 2>still really good, but you have nothing offensively outside of JSN.

0:55:05.800 --> 0:55:08.839
<v Speaker 2>He is everything, and last year it wasn't like that.

0:55:08.900 --> 0:55:11.719
<v Speaker 2>They did have Kenneth Walker and Charbonnet. They had a

0:55:11.760 --> 0:55:14.799
<v Speaker 2>good running game that helped balance that. everything that JSN did.

0:55:14.820 --> 0:55:17.259
<v Speaker 2>The reason JSN was so open last year was because

0:55:17.280 --> 0:55:19.899
<v Speaker 2>of that run game. And this year, JSN is not open.

0:55:19.940 --> 0:55:23.870
<v Speaker 2>It's all being force-fed by Sam Darnold, which works for JSN,

0:55:24.310 --> 0:55:25.969
<v Speaker 2>but also it leads to a lot of turnovers, which

0:55:25.989 --> 0:55:28.810
<v Speaker 2>we've seen from Sam Darnold this year. So, yeah, like

0:55:28.890 --> 0:55:30.670
<v Speaker 2>I talked about, I've had a real tough time this one,

0:55:30.690 --> 0:55:32.750
<v Speaker 2>and I try to go back to the last time

0:55:32.770 --> 0:55:34.400
<v Speaker 2>they played. The most recent time they played was in 2022.

0:55:34.390 --> 0:55:38.989
<v Speaker 2>Totally irrelevant to these teams, right? Different coaching staffs, different quarterbacks.

0:55:39.010 --> 0:55:42.299
<v Speaker 2>I think Gina Smith was quarterback back then as well. So, every...

0:55:43.100 --> 0:55:45.379
<v Speaker 2>professional bone in my body saying, you got to take

0:55:45.400 --> 0:55:48.009
<v Speaker 2>the Seahawks here. But I'm just like, this stinks. This

0:55:48.050 --> 0:55:50.390
<v Speaker 2>feels like a reverse trap here where they're trying to

0:55:50.430 --> 0:55:51.890
<v Speaker 2>suck us in to take the Seahawks where I just

0:55:51.930 --> 0:55:53.410
<v Speaker 2>feel like the Chiefs are the right side, especially at

0:55:53.450 --> 0:55:56.670
<v Speaker 2>this plus number. So yeah, you have my homestead. I

0:55:56.730 --> 0:55:57.969
<v Speaker 2>had it. I can't find it on my phone now

0:55:57.989 --> 0:56:00.870
<v Speaker 2>with him as a dog. But it's basically 10 and 3.

0:56:00.850 --> 0:56:03.790
<v Speaker 2>I was going to say, it's basically above 65%. So

0:56:03.890 --> 0:56:07.439
<v Speaker 2>it's just a blind bet you should make.

0:56:07.880 --> 0:56:09.000
<v Speaker 1>There's a difference between.

0:56:11.660 --> 0:56:16.420
<v Speaker 1>A team being due and a team with Patrick Mahomes

0:56:16.480 --> 0:56:20.160
<v Speaker 1>that has a really good running game and Nick Bolton,

0:56:20.300 --> 0:56:23.760
<v Speaker 1>who's going to be good for two to three blitzes

0:56:23.800 --> 0:56:27.560
<v Speaker 1>per game that will completely wreck Sam Darnold at the

0:56:27.620 --> 0:56:30.610
<v Speaker 1>exact right time. We're just betting on the quality of

0:56:30.620 --> 0:56:32.950
<v Speaker 1>the players in the field who have proven it again

0:56:32.989 --> 0:56:36.509
<v Speaker 1>and again and again, executing at the exact right high

0:56:36.530 --> 0:56:40.469
<v Speaker 1>leverage spots. That's what we're doing. We're not avoiding this

0:56:40.489 --> 0:56:42.399
<v Speaker 1>in the contest at two and a half. There's no way.

0:56:42.900 --> 0:56:44.819
<v Speaker 1>We're going to hate it. It's going to be Sunday night.

0:56:44.840 --> 0:56:46.100
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to have to go to bed. I'm going

0:56:46.120 --> 0:56:47.440
<v Speaker 1>to have to stay up for this game. I'm not

0:56:47.460 --> 0:56:48.040
<v Speaker 1>going to like it.

0:56:48.840 --> 0:56:52.279
<v Speaker 2>We'll see. If a certain group calls me up and

0:56:52.340 --> 0:56:55.160
<v Speaker 2>tells me we cannot play this one, I will listen

0:56:55.200 --> 0:56:57.609
<v Speaker 2>to that, guys. Right now, I'm like, I am so

0:56:57.660 --> 0:56:59.890
<v Speaker 2>dug in. I am happy to put the Chiefs in

0:56:59.950 --> 0:57:00.650
<v Speaker 2>as one of our picks.

0:57:01.210 --> 0:57:03.529
<v Speaker 1>All right. It's time to give our Discord grouper of

0:57:03.570 --> 0:57:05.630
<v Speaker 1>the week. Simon, you're going to love this one.

0:57:06.830 --> 0:57:11.010
<v Speaker 2>Buy my book. Buy my book. Buy my book.

0:57:11.870 --> 0:57:13.090
<v Speaker 1>You can join the Discord.

0:57:13.130 --> 0:57:14.890
<v Speaker 2>How many we got left, Chad? How many books do

0:57:14.930 --> 0:57:15.609
<v Speaker 2>we need left?

0:57:16.710 --> 0:57:17.510
<v Speaker 1>We need.

0:57:17.630 --> 0:57:20.010
<v Speaker 2>Like 10,000 sold more? No, no.

0:57:20.090 --> 0:57:24.660
<v Speaker 1>We need about 1,000 to 1,500 more books to be sold.

0:57:25.320 --> 0:57:28.020
<v Speaker 2>Guys, let's do it. I literally have 1,000 books in

0:57:28.060 --> 0:57:30.480
<v Speaker 2>this back room here. I need someone else to step

0:57:30.560 --> 0:57:32.420
<v Speaker 2>up and start buying these books.

0:57:33.140 --> 0:57:35.890
<v Speaker 1>We need more. We're not there yet. But I will say, Simon,

0:57:35.910 --> 0:57:39.610
<v Speaker 1>I appreciate you bringing it up. I've been waiting to

0:57:39.730 --> 0:57:44.920
<v Speaker 1>unleash a pre-order incentive that I think people are going

0:57:44.940 --> 0:57:47.860
<v Speaker 1>to love. And I'm going to announce it next week.

0:57:49.080 --> 0:57:52.840
<v Speaker 1>I just need to finalize some of the legalese. But

0:57:52.860 --> 0:57:54.470
<v Speaker 1>I think people are really going to enjoy it. It's

0:57:54.510 --> 0:57:57.210
<v Speaker 1>a really fun one. In the meantime, join the Discord.

0:57:57.290 --> 0:58:01.850
<v Speaker 1>Pre-order the number at readthenumber.com. You'll get an invite to

0:58:01.890 --> 0:58:03.430
<v Speaker 1>join the Discord. You're going to help us raise money

0:58:03.450 --> 0:58:05.510
<v Speaker 1>for St. Jude's, by the way. We won with the

0:58:05.530 --> 0:58:09.050
<v Speaker 1>Cleveland Browns last week. This week, the winner is Chiefs

0:58:09.670 --> 0:58:14.120
<v Speaker 1>Vikings teaser. Moving Kansas City up eight and a half,

0:58:14.200 --> 0:58:18.600
<v Speaker 1>moving Minnesota down to about minus a half. I'll report

0:58:18.680 --> 0:58:21.580
<v Speaker 1>out the results on Sunday again. Just keep buying the

0:58:21.620 --> 0:58:24.750
<v Speaker 1>books and I'll stop talking about it. Join, read, or

0:58:24.930 --> 0:58:31.750
<v Speaker 1>go to readthenumber.com, pre-order the book. Our underdog, round robin.

0:58:33.700 --> 0:58:38.070
<v Speaker 2>My dog likes your dog. Your dog likes my dog.

0:58:39.230 --> 0:58:41.870
<v Speaker 1>I mean, Atlanta's got to be in there, Simon.

0:58:42.350 --> 0:58:45.290
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we got to do our Atlanta love, our Bucs love.

0:58:45.670 --> 0:58:49.390
<v Speaker 2>Bucs are plus 140. Those are two teams we're very

0:58:49.450 --> 0:58:52.510
<v Speaker 2>high on. Obviously, I had Cincinnati pencil in here as

0:58:52.530 --> 0:58:54.110
<v Speaker 2>the other dog we're going to put in. That's obviously

0:58:54.170 --> 0:58:56.410
<v Speaker 2>flipped now. They're minus 122. Yeah, love Chiefs if you

0:58:56.450 --> 0:58:58.970
<v Speaker 2>want to do them. Plus 124, plus 125, depends on

0:58:58.990 --> 0:59:04.230
<v Speaker 2>your shop. You want to just do three this week?

0:59:04.410 --> 0:59:06.800
<v Speaker 1>Let's do three. We're not putting Miami in there.

0:59:08.180 --> 0:59:13.060
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I was thinking Vegas too. I really like that, obviously. Yeah,

0:59:13.660 --> 0:59:15.020
<v Speaker 2>that's a really fun one that I know you said

0:59:15.040 --> 0:59:18.680
<v Speaker 2>at Miami. I'll personally throw that one in. Plus 195.

0:59:18.680 --> 0:59:21.300
<v Speaker 1>You know what? Screw it. Let's put Miami and Vegas

0:59:21.340 --> 0:59:22.120
<v Speaker 1>in there too. Why not?

0:59:22.920 --> 0:59:23.680
<v Speaker 2>All right, let's do it.

0:59:23.800 --> 0:59:29.970
<v Speaker 1>We live. We're just gambling. Our favorites... Parlay. I think

0:59:29.990 --> 0:59:31.710
<v Speaker 1>I would put Cincinnati in that one.

0:59:33.530 --> 0:59:36.880
<v Speaker 2>Okay. Yeah, I'll do Cincy. I'd like to talk about Denver.

0:59:37.440 --> 0:59:39.080
<v Speaker 2>Tons of– a lot of love from a lot of

0:59:39.100 --> 0:59:43.080
<v Speaker 2>respected guys. We have to put some love into that one. Now,

0:59:43.740 --> 0:59:46.040
<v Speaker 2>we can skip Minnesota because you said we've already done

0:59:46.080 --> 0:59:48.140
<v Speaker 2>that in your group or teaser. So we don't need

0:59:48.160 --> 0:59:51.890
<v Speaker 2>to force that one in. If we're looking for another

0:59:51.910 --> 0:59:53.510
<v Speaker 2>team we both love that we think is going to win,

0:59:53.530 --> 0:59:56.650
<v Speaker 2>why don't we take Detroit plus minus 165?

0:59:56.650 --> 0:59:57.850
<v Speaker 1>I was going to say that.

0:59:58.190 --> 0:59:58.910
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Great.

0:59:59.470 --> 1:00:01.510
<v Speaker 1>Perfect. I want to talk about your biggest bets.

1:00:01.930 --> 1:00:04.250
<v Speaker 2>Pull up those pants and be a man.

1:00:04.270 --> 1:00:06.370
<v Speaker 1>But here was a question from the discord.

1:00:07.050 --> 1:00:07.310
<v Speaker 2>Okay.

1:00:07.350 --> 1:00:11.610
<v Speaker 1>The number.com join the discord. How do you decide what

1:00:11.650 --> 1:00:14.650
<v Speaker 1>your biggest bets are? What are the factors?

1:00:16.350 --> 1:00:19.270
<v Speaker 2>Oh man, way too much goes into that. I would

1:00:19.370 --> 1:00:25.490
<v Speaker 2>say every week's different, right? We're, um, Like I always

1:00:25.510 --> 1:00:27.570
<v Speaker 2>talk about a normal week for me, we'll have two

1:00:27.590 --> 1:00:31.530
<v Speaker 2>to three big, bigger, bigger bets. So this week I

1:00:31.550 --> 1:00:35.330
<v Speaker 2>started taking a position Sunday night on the bucks or Atlanta.

1:00:36.130 --> 1:00:38.090
<v Speaker 2>I will bet all that until the number moves to

1:00:38.110 --> 1:00:39.990
<v Speaker 2>a spot I'm not comfortable with anymore. So that means

1:00:40.010 --> 1:00:42.890
<v Speaker 2>for both those teams, it always stops after three. So

1:00:43.550 --> 1:00:45.570
<v Speaker 2>either sides, I was betting heavily at three and a half,

1:00:45.930 --> 1:00:48.010
<v Speaker 2>still betting at three stops. Once it gets to two

1:00:48.030 --> 1:00:49.810
<v Speaker 2>and a half, that's, that's pretty simple for me when

1:00:49.830 --> 1:00:52.030
<v Speaker 2>it goes with big bets where it's just, I'm investing

1:00:52.170 --> 1:00:54.220
<v Speaker 2>so much money. I need the best of the number.

1:00:54.670 --> 1:00:56.890
<v Speaker 2>Like that– I told you that perfect example this past

1:00:56.930 --> 1:01:00.230
<v Speaker 2>weekend where you can read a game perfectly right and

1:01:00.290 --> 1:01:03.250
<v Speaker 2>something stupid happens called sports and then you lose that bet.

1:01:03.590 --> 1:01:05.750
<v Speaker 2>And that's what happened with the Hoosiers last week. Hoosiers,

1:01:06.270 --> 1:01:07.550
<v Speaker 2>they had to miss a field goal and have a

1:01:07.590 --> 1:01:09.870
<v Speaker 2>guy walk out of the end zone on a touchdown

1:01:10.310 --> 1:01:13.310
<v Speaker 2>or step out of bounds on a receiving touchdown. I

1:01:13.330 --> 1:01:15.210
<v Speaker 2>think the number landed on five. They were a three-and-a-half

1:01:15.270 --> 1:01:18.370
<v Speaker 2>point dog. If you saw my kickoff, I got to two-and-a-half.

1:01:18.390 --> 1:01:20.990
<v Speaker 2>That's the type of thing where I've taken my position–

1:01:21.280 --> 1:01:23.060
<v Speaker 2>And now I totally walk away from once it moves

1:01:23.100 --> 1:01:25.140
<v Speaker 2>past the three. That's how I'm handling those other two

1:01:25.180 --> 1:01:28.220
<v Speaker 2>bets this week that are my bigger bets. I could

1:01:28.380 --> 1:01:30.540
<v Speaker 2>see since he ended up owning my bigger bets, I

1:01:30.580 --> 1:01:32.450
<v Speaker 2>was really hammering since he had plus three, plus two

1:01:32.470 --> 1:01:35.650
<v Speaker 2>and a half. Now that it's flipped, Chad knows this

1:01:35.730 --> 1:01:37.610
<v Speaker 2>is like the scariest position ever to be in as

1:01:37.650 --> 1:01:40.530
<v Speaker 2>a better. It worked out last week with Caroline. Like

1:01:40.570 --> 1:01:42.490
<v Speaker 2>I had a bunch of us in Caroline. That number flipped.

1:01:43.070 --> 1:01:45.350
<v Speaker 2>But that was with a major, major injury with Jalen

1:01:45.370 --> 1:01:48.750
<v Speaker 2>Hurts where Stu Punley has been a pretty good backup.

1:01:48.790 --> 1:01:51.370
<v Speaker 2>He's not like Tanner McKee, which I know. Tanner did

1:01:51.390 --> 1:01:53.990
<v Speaker 2>all right, but Snoop's one game is a backup for

1:01:54.010 --> 1:01:56.380
<v Speaker 2>the Ravens. So that's another game where I would have

1:01:56.400 --> 1:01:59.980
<v Speaker 2>bet way more into the Bengals. Numbers flip now. Another

1:02:00.000 --> 1:02:01.840
<v Speaker 2>one where I'm not really betting much. Those are three

1:02:01.880 --> 1:02:04.640
<v Speaker 2>games where I bet heavy into. We're sitting here Thursday morning.

1:02:04.780 --> 1:02:06.990
<v Speaker 2>I probably can't bet any more into those games. So

1:02:07.660 --> 1:02:09.430
<v Speaker 2>for what's going to happen for me going from this

1:02:09.470 --> 1:02:12.590
<v Speaker 2>point to Sunday, I'm looking for value. So if I'm

1:02:12.650 --> 1:02:14.190
<v Speaker 2>really high, like me and Chad are talking about the Chiefs,

1:02:14.750 --> 1:02:17.490
<v Speaker 2>the Chiefs keep touching three, I'll keep betting into that.

1:02:17.570 --> 1:02:18.810
<v Speaker 2>That might end up being one of my bigger bets

1:02:18.830 --> 1:02:20.860
<v Speaker 2>this week. I don't know right now. I just keep

1:02:20.880 --> 1:02:23.160
<v Speaker 2>taking a taste of it. Yeah, as a city right now,

1:02:23.220 --> 1:02:25.300
<v Speaker 2>my two biggest bets are going to be Atlanta, the Bucs.

1:02:26.160 --> 1:02:27.920
<v Speaker 2>I think I'm going to come around more as we

1:02:27.960 --> 1:02:30.380
<v Speaker 2>get closer to the weekend on Denver. That's just a

1:02:30.400 --> 1:02:32.280
<v Speaker 2>line that I haven't really bet much into, and I

1:02:32.320 --> 1:02:34.000
<v Speaker 2>think a lot of pros are on it, and same

1:02:34.020 --> 1:02:35.760
<v Speaker 2>goes with Detroit. It's a number I haven't really bet

1:02:35.780 --> 1:02:37.419
<v Speaker 2>much into, and I might bet more into it. But

1:02:37.960 --> 1:02:39.240
<v Speaker 2>for Sydney right now, you're like, Sam, what are your

1:02:39.360 --> 1:02:41.660
<v Speaker 2>biggest bets come Sunday, which will you have the most

1:02:41.700 --> 1:02:44.100
<v Speaker 2>money invested into? I think it's going to be two

1:02:44.140 --> 1:02:46.140
<v Speaker 2>games me and Chad loved on Tuesday. That's going to

1:02:46.160 --> 1:02:47.660
<v Speaker 2>be the Atlanta game. It's going to be on that

1:02:47.700 --> 1:02:49.460
<v Speaker 2>Bucs game, all on the NFC South.

1:02:50.580 --> 1:02:53.960
<v Speaker 1>But it's really about line value and how much you

1:02:53.980 --> 1:02:57.570
<v Speaker 1>can get down at a particular time and then re-betting

1:02:57.610 --> 1:02:59.800
<v Speaker 1>that as long as when the line moves, you're still

1:02:59.840 --> 1:03:03.190
<v Speaker 1>getting the value that you perceive based on your model.

1:03:04.190 --> 1:03:06.750
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. I said it a million times. Everyone listening to

1:03:06.790 --> 1:03:09.830
<v Speaker 2>this show, you have the power. You can pick your spots.

1:03:09.870 --> 1:03:13.290
<v Speaker 2>You are in total control. Me and Chad do a

1:03:13.330 --> 1:03:15.170
<v Speaker 2>show here. We have to get our picks every week.

1:03:15.810 --> 1:03:17.690
<v Speaker 2>I'm telling you, most pros I know, the best of

1:03:17.730 --> 1:03:20.240
<v Speaker 2>the best, They'll win big and then just disappear for

1:03:20.280 --> 1:03:22.630
<v Speaker 2>two or three weeks. They'll take a step back because

1:03:23.150 --> 1:03:24.810
<v Speaker 2>they know when you're, when you think you're hot and

1:03:24.830 --> 1:03:26.630
<v Speaker 2>you think you're seeing the board. Well, you could burn

1:03:26.670 --> 1:03:29.350
<v Speaker 2>yourself that way. Most pros do where if you just

1:03:29.390 --> 1:03:31.870
<v Speaker 2>are selective, you pick your spots. That's how you win

1:03:31.890 --> 1:03:34.850
<v Speaker 2>a lot of money longterm. So for me, yeah. Like

1:03:34.890 --> 1:03:37.940
<v Speaker 2>if there's advantageous spots, I hammer it. And if I

1:03:37.960 --> 1:03:39.700
<v Speaker 2>think the public's are rating aside and I'm getting great

1:03:39.720 --> 1:03:41.380
<v Speaker 2>value on the side, obviously I go big. I mean,

1:03:41.400 --> 1:03:44.360
<v Speaker 2>people remember I was hammering Atlanta when Penix came back.

1:03:44.420 --> 1:03:46.260
<v Speaker 2>I was like, Oh my God, the market's totally undervalued

1:03:46.280 --> 1:03:48.550
<v Speaker 2>in this Atlanta team with Penix. I took a very

1:03:48.570 --> 1:03:50.169
<v Speaker 2>large position on that. Those are the type of bets

1:03:50.210 --> 1:03:53.610
<v Speaker 2>where after that, I try to relax for a couple

1:03:53.630 --> 1:03:56.770
<v Speaker 2>of weeks because I'm flush now with money in all

1:03:56.830 --> 1:03:59.870
<v Speaker 2>these different accounts that are still, you know, I don't

1:04:00.030 --> 1:04:02.390
<v Speaker 2>withdraw any of these accounts. Like I let that money roll.

1:04:03.010 --> 1:04:05.670
<v Speaker 2>That's probably the hardest part, right? Is you're trying to navigate,

1:04:05.710 --> 1:04:07.730
<v Speaker 2>trying to be patient, pick your spots as a professional

1:04:07.790 --> 1:04:12.560
<v Speaker 2>better where the general public, most of you, you'll win

1:04:12.620 --> 1:04:14.880
<v Speaker 2>a ton of money on your 1PMs. You'll roll all

1:04:14.920 --> 1:04:16.760
<v Speaker 2>that into your 4 p.m. bets. And all of a sudden,

1:04:16.820 --> 1:04:19.680
<v Speaker 2>you go for 3 or 4 p.m., your days are washed. Technically,

1:04:19.700 --> 1:04:21.450
<v Speaker 2>you might be down. And that's what I try to

1:04:21.470 --> 1:04:23.430
<v Speaker 2>describe to people. It's like you're in total power, man.

1:04:23.470 --> 1:04:26.050
<v Speaker 2>If I love the Atlanta Falcons this week and you

1:04:26.070 --> 1:04:28.170
<v Speaker 2>bet them with us at plus 3.5, you bet 100

1:04:28.170 --> 1:04:31.350
<v Speaker 2>on it, and you wake up Sunday morning, you like

1:04:31.390 --> 1:04:35.620
<v Speaker 2>our Detroit bet, only bet 10 on that. Don't think

1:04:35.640 --> 1:04:37.180
<v Speaker 2>you need to bet 100 on every game we're giving

1:04:37.240 --> 1:04:38.900
<v Speaker 2>out here. You need to really pick your spots and

1:04:38.920 --> 1:04:41.920
<v Speaker 2>what you really like as well. So that's the biggest thing.

1:04:41.960 --> 1:04:45.450
<v Speaker 2>It's just money management and being patient. 50% of being

1:04:45.490 --> 1:04:48.050
<v Speaker 2>a sports better, my model, getting information from all these

1:04:48.070 --> 1:04:50.370
<v Speaker 2>other pro bettors, that's the other half of it. But

1:04:50.430 --> 1:04:52.970
<v Speaker 2>being disciplined, that really is the key to this whole thing, man.

1:04:52.990 --> 1:04:55.410
<v Speaker 2>You just, you got to be so disciplined because it's

1:04:55.430 --> 1:04:57.280
<v Speaker 2>so hard not to get hyped and, you know, I

1:04:57.300 --> 1:04:58.620
<v Speaker 2>don't want to say smiling on your own, drinking your

1:04:58.640 --> 1:05:00.640
<v Speaker 2>own Kool-Aid, but that's what it becomes. It's just like,

1:05:01.120 --> 1:05:03.160
<v Speaker 2>you think you're never going to lose again where it's just, no,

1:05:03.520 --> 1:05:05.459
<v Speaker 2>you're about to fall on your face literally this next game.

1:05:05.480 --> 1:05:06.690
<v Speaker 2>And that's, you always have to be wary of.

1:05:07.400 --> 1:05:16.340
<v Speaker 1>I always bet fewer games the week after I've won

1:05:16.360 --> 1:05:19.820
<v Speaker 1>a lot of money. Like last week, we were on one, right?

1:05:19.900 --> 1:05:22.570
<v Speaker 1>Four on one in the contest. You know, we nailed

1:05:22.610 --> 1:05:27.470
<v Speaker 1>the commanders. Like we got the Steelers. We got the Browns.

1:05:27.810 --> 1:05:32.470
<v Speaker 1>We had the Panthers. I think I've only made three

1:05:32.510 --> 1:05:35.510
<v Speaker 1>or four bets this whole week. The Falcons, the Bucs.

1:05:35.550 --> 1:05:38.230
<v Speaker 1>I bet the Bears minus two and a half. Detroit,

1:05:38.310 --> 1:05:43.890
<v Speaker 1>like really not in Kansas City. I'm biding my time

1:05:43.950 --> 1:05:49.080
<v Speaker 1>on this one. Sharp versus square, Simon. We both won

1:05:49.100 --> 1:05:50.900
<v Speaker 1>last week. I had Chicago minus one and a half.

1:05:50.920 --> 1:05:55.320
<v Speaker 1>You had Pittsburgh minus two and a half. Speaking of,

1:05:57.300 --> 1:06:00.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm going with Detroit minus three. All right.

1:06:00.320 --> 1:06:02.500
<v Speaker 2>Going Detroit? Oh, God.

1:06:03.180 --> 1:06:06.680
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Because I know what you want to do.

1:06:07.660 --> 1:06:08.570
<v Speaker 2>What do you think I want to do? I want

1:06:08.590 --> 1:06:09.650
<v Speaker 2>to do the Chiefs, honestly.

1:06:09.810 --> 1:06:11.850
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I know. I know. Because that's the other one

1:06:11.890 --> 1:06:13.230
<v Speaker 1>I was going to do. And I'm like, I'm just

1:06:13.250 --> 1:06:14.410
<v Speaker 1>getting a better number with the Lions.

1:06:15.300 --> 1:06:18.970
<v Speaker 2>I'll be a super sharp douche. I'll take Denver minus four.

1:06:19.530 --> 1:06:20.150
<v Speaker 1>Wow.

1:06:21.350 --> 1:06:23.750
<v Speaker 2>Okay. Because I've been trying to give out favorites in

1:06:23.790 --> 1:06:24.990
<v Speaker 2>my short prescribed. I don't know if you noticed this

1:06:25.030 --> 1:06:27.610
<v Speaker 2>pattern because people are killing me saying all I do

1:06:27.670 --> 1:06:29.350
<v Speaker 2>is take the grossest dogs of the week. That's why

1:06:29.490 --> 1:06:31.830
<v Speaker 2>I win, quote unquote. So I said, you know what?

1:06:31.870 --> 1:06:35.530
<v Speaker 2>This year I'm taking favorites, trying to at least. So, yeah,

1:06:35.570 --> 1:06:38.290
<v Speaker 2>normally I would probably take the Chiefs here, but I'll

1:06:38.310 --> 1:06:39.510
<v Speaker 2>go with Denver minus four.

1:06:40.660 --> 1:06:43.620
<v Speaker 1>All right. In Survivor, we're basically out of it.

1:06:43.640 --> 1:06:46.020
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'm out. I mean, if people want our advice,

1:06:46.060 --> 1:06:48.100
<v Speaker 2>I think we're both on the Vikings.

1:06:48.660 --> 1:06:48.900
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

1:06:49.600 --> 1:06:51.300
<v Speaker 2>But I don't feel great about it. I mean, this

1:06:51.360 --> 1:06:55.360
<v Speaker 2>is by far the toughest week for Survivor. I mean,

1:06:55.380 --> 1:06:57.340
<v Speaker 2>people have heard my pitch on Denver. If you want

1:06:57.380 --> 1:07:00.940
<v Speaker 2>to go with the sneakiest Survivor option, I wouldn't do Jets.

1:07:01.280 --> 1:07:03.380
<v Speaker 2>I know it looks so easy and so simple, but

1:07:04.100 --> 1:07:06.800
<v Speaker 2>I just have a hard time thinking Miami's going 0-17. Like,

1:07:06.860 --> 1:07:08.810
<v Speaker 2>this is a game they could steal. I know it's

1:07:08.930 --> 1:07:10.590
<v Speaker 2>probably going to be at home when they'll steal a game,

1:07:10.650 --> 1:07:12.990
<v Speaker 2>but that's my hesitation with the Jets. I know they're

1:07:13.010 --> 1:07:15.590
<v Speaker 2>a sharp option where Yeah, if you still have multiple

1:07:15.650 --> 1:07:18.230
<v Speaker 2>option pools, I know guys who have a lot of options, right?

1:07:18.270 --> 1:07:20.910
<v Speaker 2>They put multiple entries into a pool. Sure, you can

1:07:20.930 --> 1:07:23.250
<v Speaker 2>take the Jets, but if I only had one pool left,

1:07:23.880 --> 1:07:25.600
<v Speaker 2>there ain't no way in hell I'm taking the Jets

1:07:25.620 --> 1:07:25.980
<v Speaker 2>this week.

1:07:28.560 --> 1:07:29.700
<v Speaker 1>All right, we're going to have a lot of work

1:07:29.740 --> 1:07:32.020
<v Speaker 1>to do on Sunday. I don't think we really built

1:07:32.060 --> 1:07:35.380
<v Speaker 1>to a consensus here. And that's when we'll discuss our

1:07:35.460 --> 1:07:41.250
<v Speaker 1>final NFL Week 7 bets, and we'll finalize our official

1:07:41.890 --> 1:07:49.750
<v Speaker 1>five picks for the $ 25, 000 Pro Football Pick'em Contest. Sign up. SharperSquare.thevolume.com.

1:07:49.810 --> 1:07:52.690
<v Speaker 1>This has been Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are

1:07:52.730 --> 1:07:55.960
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1:07:55.980 --> 1:07:59.160
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<v Speaker 1>a gift. Until Sunday, 11 a.m. Eastern Live, love you.

1:08:12.010 --> 1:08:12.970
<v Speaker 2>Brewer Beaver.

1:08:13.330 --> 1:08:15.110
<v Speaker 1>I caught it.

1:08:15.190 --> 1:08:20.470
<v Speaker 2>Come see what's brewing. Come see what the good times are.

1:08:21.450 --> 1:08:24.990
<v Speaker 2>Come see what the brewers are doing. Come on and

1:08:25.030 --> 1:08:30.610
<v Speaker 2>cheer a superstar. Be a believer in Brewer Beaver. It's

1:08:30.680 --> 1:08:32.540
<v Speaker 2>fun to join in the cheering.