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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jay Ley, we bring

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Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and

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Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple, podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Let's

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Speaker 1: bring an entry, Schaps and welcol standing the chief process

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Speaker 1: at Strategist, Andrew. Let's start with your quotes. Quote, investors

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Speaker 1: face early cycle timing, increasing the mid cycle conditions and

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Speaker 1: late cycle valuations. Andrew, what does that mean? Yeah, thanks,

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Speaker 1: good morning, It's nice to be here. So, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you think about where we are just a little

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Speaker 1: over the year, a year from the lows of activity

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Speaker 1: belows of markets, you know, usually that would be a

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Speaker 1: pretty safely early cycle position. If we think about the

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Speaker 1: last three or four cycles, they've been you know, seven, eight,

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Speaker 1: nine year events, and so being one year out is

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Speaker 1: still create still safely early in that process. But if

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Speaker 1: you think about the conditions that we have that that

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Speaker 1: very strong recovery and consumer spending, rising inflation, our economists

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Speaker 1: think you'll see a lot more capex spending start to

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Speaker 1: come through the system. Those are much more mid cycle dynamics.

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Speaker 1: Um you could throw in a peek and p M

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Speaker 1: I s to that as well. And then valuations on

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Speaker 1: many asset classes look more late cycle. There they're they're

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Speaker 1: relatively expensive. That obviously varies. So this is a pretty

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Speaker 1: complex picture for investors, and and kind of deviates from

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Speaker 1: maybe a year ago or six months ago when those

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Speaker 1: early cycle signals were much more consistent. I gotta congratulate

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Speaker 1: Andrew and having a midyear review published on May sixteenth.

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Speaker 1: I just think that's that's the way they do it

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Speaker 1: at Morgan Stanley. Andrew, you've got a grid showing a

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Speaker 1: real biased to international bias to European equities as well.

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Speaker 1: Is pricing power and international concept or is that really

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Speaker 1: be a concept for the American market? Well, like, I

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Speaker 1: think it matters, you know, I think it matters everywhere.

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Speaker 1: I think it will matter more in the US. I

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Speaker 1: think it's a you know, that quality theme is a

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Speaker 1: more important theme for for Mike Wilson in our US

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Speaker 1: equity call. I think where Europe and some of the

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Speaker 1: international developed markets have an advantages, you know, I think

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Speaker 1: we know that the next six to twelve months are

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Speaker 1: going to be a real debate between good data, but

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Speaker 1: this question of is that good data too good? Is

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Speaker 1: it going to lead to higher inflation? Is it gonna

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Speaker 1: lead to a central bank policy response? I think that

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Speaker 1: is going to drive a lot of the market debate

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Speaker 1: over the next six months. And in Europe and to

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Speaker 1: a lesser extent, Japan are just in a very different

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Speaker 1: part of that debate. You know they are. They are

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Speaker 1: not as expensive, their inflationary pressures are not as significant.

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Speaker 1: I think their central banks will be much slower to

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Speaker 1: respond to any rise in inflationary data. So I think

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Speaker 1: that gives them a big advantage. And you you just

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Speaker 1: mentioned on your program, Secretary Yelling will be talking about

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Speaker 1: tax increases again, that's that's a story that that might

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Speaker 1: impact the US market, but isn't currently on the table

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Speaker 1: in Europe or Japan. And one thing that you're talking

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Speaker 1: about is higher inflation and why that leads to your

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Speaker 1: call to downgrade credit to neutral from overweight. And I'm

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Speaker 1: trying to understand what the bigger risk is to markets

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Speaker 1: based on valuations currently higher than expected inflation or lower

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Speaker 1: than expected growth, right, I mean, these are two concerns,

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Speaker 1: and this is basically is what people are pitting themselves

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Speaker 1: against when they talk about the FED and being perhaps

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Speaker 1: countered to their view. Where do you stand on that, well,

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Speaker 1: I think for markets broadly, I think weaker growth would

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Speaker 1: be the bigger risk. I think we saw that, you know,

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Speaker 1: throughout the last and I think that was a defining

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Speaker 1: feature of the last cycle, the post GFC period. It

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Speaker 1: was all about risk to the downside. Now, you know,

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Speaker 1: as much as we're all talking about inflation, I think

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Speaker 1: we all need to acknowledge that, you know, growth improving,

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Speaker 1: inflation picking up in central banks eventually raising rates is

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Speaker 1: a incredibly normal pattern of behavior. That's that's happened time

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Speaker 1: and time and time again. So that's a very normal

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Speaker 1: thing to happen as things improve, and it doesn't I think,

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Speaker 1: preempt the idea that we're still in a bull market

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Speaker 1: things will still be better. Where I think credit starts

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Speaker 1: to get into a challenge though, is that if we're

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Speaker 1: talking about a hotter cycle, if we're talking about central

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Speaker 1: banks having greater willingness to to run a higher pressure economy,

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Speaker 1: as our economists say, then you know that's an environment

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Speaker 1: where credit investors they don't benefit. If if growth is better,

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Speaker 1: but they are still exposed. If that kind of hotter

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Speaker 1: growth means that the next downturn is closer than it

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Speaker 1: would otherwise be, Andrews got to leave it there on that.

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Speaker 1: I'm pulled a note in the credit market. Morgan Stanley,

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Speaker 1: chief cross assets strategist right now on foreign exchange, we

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Speaker 1: have anticipated this because he has been more brilliant than

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Speaker 1: anyone I know. I'm saying week dollar, week dollar, when's

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Speaker 1: it gonna happen? We're not sure. Martin McCormick is with

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Speaker 1: t d S Curities Mark. The dollar finally breaks down,

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Speaker 1: is it enough of a break for you to switch

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Speaker 1: to a bit of a week dollar? Well, yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think we still like the medium term dollar down story.

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Speaker 1: I think there's an interesting element where the global economy

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Speaker 1: is doing pretty good. It's catching up with the United States.

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Speaker 1: We do see absolute growth levels that are favoring the US,

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Speaker 1: but the delta of growth, which matters for currencies, is

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Speaker 1: moving in a week or dollar direction. The most important

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Speaker 1: factor is really again, the FED is allowing the weakness

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Speaker 1: in the dollar essentially because what they're trying to do

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Speaker 1: is run the economy hot let inforlation run higher, and

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Speaker 1: they're experimenting with what feels like an MMT type narrative.

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Speaker 1: So you add those things together and a dollar still

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Speaker 1: overvalued and we're still seeing again the global story is

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Speaker 1: is moving the right direction. So those are ingredients for

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Speaker 1: a medium term dollar move lower. But I think the

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Speaker 1: more interesting action is really on the kind of the

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Speaker 1: month to month, the three month, the quarterly basis, which

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Speaker 1: is really giving us really interesting pivot points to make

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Speaker 1: tactical decisions whether or not you want to overweight or

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Speaker 1: underway currencies against the dollar in that time line. So, Monk,

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Speaker 1: we're trying to resolve a tug of wall at tension,

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Speaker 1: as you've pointed out, between global reflation, a global synchronized recovery,

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Speaker 1: US exceptionalism between that tug of wall. Right now, Mam,

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Speaker 1: what you think wins out? Yeah? I think right now

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Speaker 1: we kind of have to downgrade global reflation a little bit.

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Speaker 1: It's not really about US exceptionalism. But I think what

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Speaker 1: we had is obviously week n FP print and really

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Speaker 1: strong inflation numbers. I think what we've learned from a

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Speaker 1: lot of conversations with clients is people are completely mixed.

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Speaker 1: It's one or the other, it's binary. Either the FED

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Speaker 1: is making a huge mistake and they're gonna have to

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Speaker 1: you know, they're gonna have to really work to make

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Speaker 1: things better or they fall on our side, which is basically,

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Speaker 1: they're not gonna taper anytime soon and they're not gonna

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Speaker 1: hike rates until about But there's definitely a debate that

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Speaker 1: is very lively that the Fed could taper or start

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Speaker 1: talking about tapering in June, July, or even at Jackson

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Speaker 1: Hole in August. So that's live and I think in

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Speaker 1: that environment, what we're seeing is reflation is starting to

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Speaker 1: move a little bit lower. Based on the mobility that

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Speaker 1: we track on a daily basis, volatier it should be higher,

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Speaker 1: inflation break even should be a little bit lower, and

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Speaker 1: real rate should be a little bit higher. So in

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Speaker 1: that backdrop, that's a little bit more positive for the

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Speaker 1: dollar um at least on a tactical basis versus kind

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Speaker 1: of the medium term outlook we just outline. So let's

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Speaker 1: push this through euro dollar right now hi the year

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Speaker 1: on euro dollar nine in to day high back on

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Speaker 1: January six, What are you looking to push this through?

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Speaker 1: And when three right now twenty three, what are you

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Speaker 1: looking for on euro dollar? I think these are good

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Speaker 1: fade levels. So if you're to take our right, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think yeah, if you're to take our year head forecast,

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Speaker 1: we're in a one eight team camp. So even at

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Speaker 1: the end of the year, I think we're gonna see

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Speaker 1: a little bit more of a stronger dollar verse the Euro. Again,

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Speaker 1: I think most of the action effects is really gonna

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Speaker 1: come down to factors that aren't really related or big

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Speaker 1: driver of the Euro, which is really commodity exposure, value,

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Speaker 1: relative economic growth, and even the equity store. I think

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Speaker 1: the upside for the Euro that people aren't expecting isn't

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Speaker 1: going to be a central bank trade. It's going to

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Speaker 1: be an equity story. So if European equity start to

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Speaker 1: outperform like they have in or at least on the

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Speaker 1: daily tracking of bt F flows, that's where I think

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Speaker 1: people can be surprised by the euro. But based on

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Speaker 1: the growth to carry, the value and the relative central

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Speaker 1: bank policy. To me, Euro still a sell at two

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Speaker 1: and you buy it back around seventeen. So what could

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Speaker 1: be the trigger for what you're saying for for for

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Speaker 1: the money flooding into European equities and driving euro higher?

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Speaker 1: What data points are you looking at? I think it

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Speaker 1: comes down to the growth in the vaccine catch up story.

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Speaker 1: That is a big narrative now that I think is important.

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Speaker 1: But I think the problem is that there isn't enough

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Speaker 1: on the other side to say there's a bunch of

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Speaker 1: factors we want to buy the Euro one. But if

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Speaker 1: the vaccine story and the growth delta are important, but

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Speaker 1: we don't see the valuation story there. We don't see

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Speaker 1: the carry argument, we don't see the yield curves deepness um.

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Speaker 1: So there's a couple of elements there, and obviously commodities

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Speaker 1: is not a big driver of the Euro, and that's

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Speaker 1: why you kind of want to look elsewhere. You're again

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Speaker 1: like the Norwegian crone, you've got a hawker central bank,

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Speaker 1: you've got commodity, you've got global connections. So I think

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Speaker 1: with the Euro, what you would kind of need to

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Speaker 1: see it is it's already there in the price. Most

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Speaker 1: of our models say the Euro is a little bit overdone,

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Speaker 1: and that's why I'm little wary of chasing it, because

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Speaker 1: you don't have a value story along with a very

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Speaker 1: stellar growth story. You have a pickup story, which is

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Speaker 1: is interesting, but it's really well known by the market.

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Speaker 1: So again I think for the equity story to work

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Speaker 1: out is we really need to see what happens with

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Speaker 1: the German elections later this year if we do get

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Speaker 1: a pivot to a green lead movement kind of center left.

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Speaker 1: I think MMT narrative is much better for Europe because

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Speaker 1: it brings capital back into Europe, no more recycling in

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Speaker 1: the current account surplus, and that would be beneficial for

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Speaker 1: the Europe for the euro versus the MMT narrative is

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Speaker 1: not as great for the U S because you're taxing.

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Speaker 1: You know where the marginal driver of innovation comes in

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Speaker 1: the U S, which is the equity market, which is

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Speaker 1: what the dollar needs. This site, Okay, just to pass

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Speaker 1: through some from this and dig into a lot of

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Speaker 1: what you're saying, and this is going back to the

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Speaker 1: question of is fiscal spending good or bad for a currency,

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Speaker 1: And you're saying that fiscal spending in Europe could be good,

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Speaker 1: whereas fiscal spending in the U S could be bad

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Speaker 1: for the dollar with respect to its strength because of

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Speaker 1: the taxation, it's likely to accompany it. Am I getting

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Speaker 1: that correctly? Absolutely? I think it's very critical. One of

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Speaker 1: the things that is most heavily missed and I'd say that,

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Speaker 1: even especially the last five years, the relative equity story

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Speaker 1: is absolutely critical. If you think about why the dollar

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Speaker 1: was able to rally during the Trump years, a lot

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Speaker 1: of it had to do as US equities outperformed the

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Speaker 1: rest of the world, and the US yield curve was

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Speaker 1: steepening while the rest of the yield the rest of

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Speaker 1: the world yield curve was flattening. For the dollar to

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Speaker 1: really kind of make up what is I think a

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Speaker 1: weak dollar policy from the Fed, it is going to

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Speaker 1: need equity flows. So in a broad balance of payments context,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna have a twin deficit. What does need an offset?

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Speaker 1: The twin deficit during the Trump years was offset by

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Speaker 1: equity inflows and the growth story. So I think a

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Speaker 1: big side of it here is if the Europe If

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Speaker 1: European policymakers deliver more positive growth shocks, especially again with

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Speaker 1: the German elections, maybe leading to more fiscal stimulus, that's

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Speaker 1: an important to elopment because that gives people a reason

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Speaker 1: to bring capital floats back into Europe where they've been

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Speaker 1: recycling them out of Europe for the past ten years.

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Speaker 1: So that's where I do think it's critical. And if

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Speaker 1: the us were to tax equity markets and tax the

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Speaker 1: wealth and innovation that comes from the equity markets, that's

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Speaker 1: a that's a negative for the dollar in the context

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Speaker 1: of where the Fed's going and the global economy is.

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Speaker 1: That's why again we like it lower over the medium term.

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Speaker 1: Malco smile gonna say and Mot mcoll made the have

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Speaker 1: tat Cecity is the global head of strategy. We're thrilled

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Speaker 1: to bring you truly the great synergy here. Synergy, I

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Speaker 1: say Craig and Michael Nathanson as we look at so

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Speaker 1: much of the distribution and content creation of our media business. Gentlemen,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us this morning.

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Speaker 1: Michael Nathans and very simple hearing Craig dive in on

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Speaker 1: this as well. Get and here is adamant that the

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Speaker 1: Roberts family in Philadelphia. You must respond, what would you

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Speaker 1: suggest Comcast will do after we see Amazon MGM, after

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Speaker 1: we see Warner Discovery. Michael, Well, well, Tom, you're gonna

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Speaker 1: like this. I'm gonna have heard to Craig today because

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Speaker 1: you always say I take his question, So let me

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Speaker 1: go to Craig first. That okay, because I don't want

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Speaker 1: to s Yeah, thanks for having US back um. UM.

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Speaker 1: You know, look, my guess is that while everybody wants

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Speaker 1: Comcast to do something right away, uh and and they

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Speaker 1: are clearly subscale in the streaming wars with Peacock today. UM,

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Speaker 1: I don't really think there's anything for them to do

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Speaker 1: right now. I think they missed an opportunity with with

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Speaker 1: Warner Media, that the fit with Warmer Warner Media would

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Speaker 1: have been frankly, probably better than than between Warner Media

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Speaker 1: Discovery and UM and and better than anything else. Why

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Speaker 1: can't they top tick that even with a seven hundred

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Speaker 1: million dollar break. Let's see, because because there really are

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Speaker 1: any trust concerns number one um uh and and also

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Speaker 1: um the challenges. You know, there are some overlap issues

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Speaker 1: like CNN and MSNBC that that clearly couldn't be together.

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Speaker 1: Um and then you have this problem of they probably

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Speaker 1: don't want the cable networks UM, T, n T and TBS,

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Speaker 1: so you start to sort of piece part the thing

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Speaker 1: into the pieces that you that you really want, especially HBO,

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Speaker 1: Max and and frankly, I don't think that's going to

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Speaker 1: appeal to the A T and T board and A

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Speaker 1: T and T. So my guess is they probably let

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Speaker 1: this pitch go by with some frustration of having missed it, UM,

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Speaker 1: and that they sort of bide their time because as

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Speaker 1: much as everybody would like to say the last dance

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Speaker 1: partners have been chosen in the game is almost over,

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Speaker 1: the reality is Peacock is not even relevant yet. And

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Speaker 1: if they can build Peacock into at least a relevant service,

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Speaker 1: and they've got the Olympics to help them do that,

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Speaker 1: down the road, it may be that the right dance

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Speaker 1: partner is actually Amazon UM and that Amazon uh prime

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Speaker 1: if whether they do MGM or not, UM could end

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Speaker 1: up being a potential suitor for for Comcast Media Business

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Speaker 1: or or somebody else. I don't think this burning urgency

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Speaker 1: to say we've got to do something today or tomorrow

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Speaker 1: is actually right, all right? Michael concerned, Michael, It kind

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Speaker 1: of feels like here we're getting into those really last

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Speaker 1: innings where people are really trying to make sure they're

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Speaker 1: not the last one standing. So Amazon MGM, that goes

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Speaker 1: to one of the kin of the subscale content players

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Speaker 1: out there and MGM and make a lot of sense

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Speaker 1: for Amazon or for some others. But how about VICOM,

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Speaker 1: CBS as well. UM, What do they do? UM? Because

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Speaker 1: It just makes a question that even emerged Viacom CBS, Uh,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't have quite the scale. No, it doesn't, Paul,

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Speaker 1: they can't do very much. Right, what's left are you know,

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Speaker 1: ponds on the chessboard? Right? You can go after lions

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Speaker 1: Gate and can go after an AMC networks. They're not big,

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Speaker 1: they're not scaled internationally. You know, this was so Creig's right.

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Speaker 1: Comcast can take your time, but this was the last

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Speaker 1: big global play to be had, right and after this

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Speaker 1: they're mostly domestic stories. So I think Vacom CBS is

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Speaker 1: really stuck, and I think for the time being, you know,

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Speaker 1: Comcast will sit on their hands. As Crect said, but

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Speaker 1: there's really not a lot you can do with what

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Speaker 1: with the pieces on the board. It just isn't enough

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Speaker 1: scale out there. Do you with all the work you

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Speaker 1: guys have done, if you're just joining US worldwide? Craig

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Speaker 1: mofat Michael Nathanson with us Nathanson and this historic week

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Speaker 1: for media to the two of you, and I go

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Speaker 1: to Michael Mobison's classic essay at credit Suites a good

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Speaker 1: twelve thirteen years ago that there's only one or two

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Speaker 1: in each category. Do we need a number three streaming

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Speaker 1: person or number four streaming person or is can it

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Speaker 1: be just Netflix and Disney win? Well, Tom, you know

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Speaker 1: we've talked too this for wire. I don't even know

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Speaker 1: if streaming is a great business, right, Like, we haven't

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Speaker 1: seen the proof points that streaming is a great business.

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Speaker 1: It requires tons of capital, constant refresh as you know,

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Speaker 1: it's not Google, it's not Microsoft, is on Apple. Um, yeah,

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Speaker 1: this may be a category when it's all said and

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Speaker 1: done that you know, you know, the winners get get majority,

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Speaker 1: but the majority is not enough to make this a

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Speaker 1: category of high R o I C. Right, And we

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Speaker 1: don't know how it ends up, but I think Craig

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Speaker 1: and I both feel that we were coming from the media,

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Speaker 1: it's going to be a worse R o I C trade.

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Speaker 1: That's what we're moving towards. Fascinating And you know, Paul Swey,

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Speaker 1: what's so important here? And acts had a great bar chart.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure they still from Craig Moffatt and Michael Nason,

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Speaker 1: but it's amazing Netflix is essentially one tenth the market cap.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, forget scaling here. That kind of brace me

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Speaker 1: to My question for for for both of you, is

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Speaker 1: is we see the news today of Apple taking a

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Speaker 1: look at MGM okay nine billion dollars, But why is

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Speaker 1: Amazon not looking at Viacom CBS. Why are they not

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Speaker 1: looking at a much, much bigger asset out there because Netflix? Uh?

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Speaker 1: And I hate when I do it, because you're gonna say,

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Speaker 1: Craig need more time. So, Craig, I was gonna say,

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Speaker 1: because Netflix has proven you don't need to own traditional

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Speaker 1: assets to build a global company, right, you don't need

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Speaker 1: to buy other people's problems to scale this business. I

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Speaker 1: gotta have one more question, and it's got to go

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Speaker 1: to Craig Moffatt because he's been silent. Why Nathans and

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Speaker 1: blathers on Craig, you you have been I went back

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Speaker 1: and looked at Mr Stevenson the day of the dreable

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Speaker 1: TV speech. I mean, what does a T and T

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Speaker 1: actually do? What do they say to their employees, what

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Speaker 1: do they say to the board? What's what's the ninety

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Speaker 1: day prescription for a T and T? After this mother

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Speaker 1: of all failures? You know, I may surprise you with

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Speaker 1: this because I've been, as you say, very critical of

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Speaker 1: of this strategy. And I actually give some credit to

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Speaker 1: John Stanky Um for for being able to acknowledge that

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Speaker 1: this was a mistake. You know, you rarely see businesses

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Speaker 1: particularly this quickly. This is only a couple of years

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Speaker 1: after they bought it. Um. You rarely see businesses where

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Speaker 1: the management team that put a deal together is willing

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Speaker 1: to acknowledge that it was a mistake and unwinded. Now

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Speaker 1: they to be fair, they didn't have a choice. They

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Speaker 1: were trying to fight three wars and they didn't have

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Speaker 1: the money. But what did they do just because how

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Speaker 1: do they compete with a juggernaut known as T Mobile. Look,

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Speaker 1: it's a real problem. There's what This deal was the

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Speaker 1: right thing for the company to do, But it doesn't

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Speaker 1: make a T and T and attractive asset because it

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Speaker 1: doesn't fix the problem. The problem was that or what

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Speaker 1: The problem they're left with is that by virtue of

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Speaker 1: having spent all the money on media and and burdened

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Speaker 1: their balance sheet, they've underspent in the wireless business. And

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Speaker 1: now I don't see any future where they aren't a

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Speaker 1: third place out of three wireless work. And so they've

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Speaker 1: still got a ton of wid job. You guys have

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Speaker 1: been wonderful the last couple of days. They do want

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Speaker 1: to mention, folks, We've had tons of inquiries. We protect

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Speaker 1: the copyright of all of our guests, including Craig Moffatt.

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Speaker 1: We don't protect the copyright of Michael Nathanson because he's

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Speaker 1: a content guy. But gentlemen, thank you, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: Right now, in exceptionally important conversation with one of the

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Speaker 1: candidates for that June twenty two primary in New York City,

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Speaker 1: Eric Adams joins us with just an absolutely remarkable biography. Eric,

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Speaker 1: you're lining up the indorsements, you are on a dash

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Speaker 1: to June twenty second. What is the endorsement? What does

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Speaker 1: the support you most covet right now? Really everyday people,

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Speaker 1: I like to say, those blue collar rookies, not only

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Speaker 1: those employees, employees who are doing uh the construction and

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Speaker 1: other jobs, but even on my accountants, my doctors. Uh.

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Speaker 1: It's the symbol of blue collar collarism. I like to say,

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Speaker 1: heart working people in the city of New York. And

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Speaker 1: they really have endorsed my campaign because they know I

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Speaker 1: protected the city for twenty two years um and public

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Speaker 1: safeties to prerequisite the prosperity. And that's the symbol I'm

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Speaker 1: going to brain and it's the way you got to

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Speaker 1: that twenty two year career. We're not gonna go into

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Speaker 1: it right now because of time, but you add a

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Speaker 1: most original path to serving with the nyp D. Tell

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Speaker 1: us right now how the NYPD can change with Mayor Adams,

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Speaker 1: It's about rebuilding trust. I state I would state this

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Speaker 1: we over again, and many of my colleagues that are

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Speaker 1: running for office don't want to talk about this. We

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Speaker 1: have to rebuild the trust, change the ecosystem of public safety,

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Speaker 1: define the role of police, but most importantly, we need

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Speaker 1: each other. Let me tell you something. The streets of

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Speaker 1: our country in general, but specifically in New York, those

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Speaker 1: streets are going to be controlled by the good guys

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Speaker 1: or the bad guys. And I'll be done if I'm

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Speaker 1: going to let the bad guys take us back to

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Speaker 1: the days when we were having two thousand homicides a year.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to rebuild trust with law enforcement and communities

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Speaker 1: in this city. Eric. This is an incredibly important message

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Speaker 1: at a time when shootings we're up a hundred and

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Speaker 1: sixty six percent year over year in April and New

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Speaker 1: York City, when people are wondering, how do you accomplish

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Speaker 1: what you're looking for? Which is safer streets and preventing

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Speaker 1: some of these shootings and other violent crimes from getting

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Speaker 1: out of control. What's your recommendation As a twenty two

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Speaker 1: year veteran of the New York Police Department, do you

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Speaker 1: recommend putting plain clothes police officers in subways? What measures

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Speaker 1: specifically are needed? Well, they are number of things we

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Speaker 1: must look at, and dealing with this crime problem is

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Speaker 1: both prevention and intervention. Prevention that consists of the long

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Speaker 1: term things we must do, but intervention is right now.

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Speaker 1: We have three year old shot at Times Square. We

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Speaker 1: had a number of homicides and shootings in the last

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Speaker 1: few days. So it's about reinstituting a anti gun unit

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Speaker 1: that is better trained, will have officers that are using

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Speaker 1: their cameras properly, and we'll do what's called precision policing.

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Speaker 1: We must go after the gangs and the over proliferation

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Speaker 1: of guns in our city. If we don't, we are

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Speaker 1: not going to have the economic recovery. We won't have

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Speaker 1: the tourism, the business travelers, or get our offices back

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Speaker 1: up in operating. Eric, this is what a lot of

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Speaker 1: people are saying. But if you don't have safe streets,

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Speaker 1: you can't get businesses that already are thinking of leaving

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Speaker 1: to stay in this city. What other measures are you

430
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,199
Speaker 1: going to take to keep them here, especially given the

431
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: fact that the bill for all of these services and

432
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 1: all of these measures are racking up. And there's a

433
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 1: deficit that we need to address as well. Yes, and

434
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 1: there's also a great opportunity. Number one, thanks to our

435
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 1: Senate and congressional delegation, we're going to have over ten

436
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 1: billion dollars and similars come into our city. But the

437
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 1: real question is are we going to squander this opportunity.

438
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,959
Speaker 1: We have to end the inequalities that we see in

439
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 1: this city. And it's it's really because all of our

440
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 1: cities in America are just really dysfunctional. Cities are made

441
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 1: up of agencies. If those agencies are not aligned, you're

442
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 1: not going to get the results that you're looking for.

443
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 1: So we must attract new businesses here, become the center

444
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:47,640
Speaker 1: of cybersecurity, of technology or self driving cars. We are

445
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,679
Speaker 1: too expensive to buire, acractic, and too difficult to do

446
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 1: business in this city. And I'm going to turn that around.

447
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,439
Speaker 1: Air Canadas. I am really upset about your endorsement from

448
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:58,639
Speaker 1: Doc Gooden. I don't know how I can do that.

449
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 1: I need you to get in a horseman from Ellis

450
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 1: Burke's the Boston Red Sox. Let's get on that today.

451
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 1: How are you gonna bring together in New York? Everybody's polarized.

452
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:12,160
Speaker 1: There's like, well, I think there's foreigner candidates, Lisa, But

453
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:16,400
Speaker 1: but Mayor Adams? How are you gonna bring New York together?

454
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:20,199
Speaker 1: The fancy people the less fancy people? How do you

455
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 1: do that? Day one? Well, first of all, we're going

456
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 1: to send out the right message. And listen, sixty five

457
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 1: thousand New Yorkers are paying fifty one of our income taxes.

458
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 1: They are they are only two percent of our income

459
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 1: tax filers. I don't join the chorus that states, so

460
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 1: what do they leave? No? We need them here. How

461
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 1: are you gonna keep them here? How are you? What's

462
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 1: your policy going to be to keep the upper one

463
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,640
Speaker 1: percent happy in New York City so they don't move

464
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 1: down to watch the Florida Marlins. Well, one thing is

465
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: for sure, let me tell you, I hear from them

466
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 1: all the time. Eric. We don't feel safe every We

467
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 1: don't believe we can walk our streets and our community.

468
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 1: We can't use our transit system in a safe way.

469
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 1: All New York is no matter if you are a

470
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 1: cab driver or a person that's in the back of

471
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,919
Speaker 1: a limousine. You want a safe city. And that is

472
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 1: something I know far too well of what an unsafe

473
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 1: city can do to the economic, economic environment and the

474
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 1: stability of the city. And I'm going to make this

475
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 1: city a safe place to raise healthy children and families. Erica.

476
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 1: Just before we let you go, this is a delicate issue.

477
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 1: The New York Times had a story that I want

478
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:32,159
Speaker 1: to give you a chance to address where they were

479
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 1: talking about some contributions that you've taken from businesses, uh

480
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 1: that the city has influence on, and you have influence

481
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:42,199
Speaker 1: on as borough president. You've called money the enemy of

482
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 1: politics before. Do you have a response to the story. Yes,

483
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:49,360
Speaker 1: And it's not a delicate issue for me, No delicate,

484
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 1: No issues delicate for me because I am extremely transplant parent.

485
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 1: I'm wanted a few elected officials in the country that

486
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:02,400
Speaker 1: has a for pyramid, or i should say, a compliance

487
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 1: officer that's on board with me. This story has been

488
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 1: vetted so many times. I was surprised to see The

489
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 1: New York Times placed this on their first page above

490
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 1: the foe to give the appearance that any UH improprieties

491
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 1: took place. This has been vetted. We are clear compliance

492
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 1: with all the rules, and I was really disappointed by

493
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 1: the headline that gave the appearance of any any wrongdoings.

494
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 1: We have not received any type of infractions based on

495
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 1: how we handle our procedures at Borrow Hall. I am

496
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 1: not impacted by money and politics. I'm impacted by what's

497
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 1: needed for everyday New Yorkers in Brooklyn Knights, and I

498
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 1: have done that for over thirty five years. Eric Adams,

499
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 1: thank you so much. She's a mayoral candidate the June

500
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 1: primary vote here in New York City. Right now, Well,

501
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,400
Speaker 1: it is in that say that gets your attention. Let's

502
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,160
Speaker 1: get right to it. He has been our most direct

503
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:07,879
Speaker 1: and assertive guests here on the pandemic. I'm Asha Dolge

504
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 1: are writing in the Hill, and I'll tell you, folks,

505
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 1: it's real, straightforward and it gives pause as UH as well.

506
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 1: Let me bring that up right now. I have characterized

507
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:22,440
Speaker 1: testing as the original sin of COVID pandemic. There are

508
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 1: very few reasons to test asymptomatic individuals beyond facilitating the

509
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 1: COVID exposed unvaccinated ending quarantine early, or the unvaccinated international

510
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 1: travel fully vaccinated persons as the CDC guidance state should

511
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 1: not be tested unless symptomatic. Dr Adlga joins us. Right now,

512
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 1: what's the next step? Dr Adlga, that's quite a statement here,

513
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:52,639
Speaker 1: So then what is the best policy for America? The

514
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 1: best policy is to really focus on testing symptomatic individuals

515
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 1: and people who are exposed and unvaccinated who need to

516
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 1: end Corny Team early, because right now we're in a

517
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 1: position where we are getting false positives, because the prevalence

518
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 1: of infection is falling in. We're in a place in

519
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 1: this pandemic that we haven't been over. People above the

520
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 1: age of sixty five have been fully vaccinated. Those were

521
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 1: the people that gave us this public health emergency. Those

522
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 1: are the ones that we're getting hospitalized. We've increasingly removed

523
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 1: the ability of this virus to threaten our hospitals, So

524
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:23,959
Speaker 1: now we've kind of gotten to a point where this

525
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 1: is like other respiratory viruses and we have to start

526
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 1: thinking about it. Like other respiratory viruses, we don't test

527
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 1: people asymptomatically for influenza. So I think we probably need

528
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,959
Speaker 1: to start ratcheting back a lot on this asymptomatic testing

529
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 1: and focus on vaccinating people and testing people who are symptomatic, uh,

530
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 1: either if they vaccinated or not vaccinated. Because I think

531
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 1: we're in a good point, in a good trajectory. Speak

532
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: to schools right now, it's May. We got to get

533
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: to August and ramp up to September school start. Are

534
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 1: you saying COVID and influenza that there's little distinction, that

535
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 1: there's little difference when it comes to younger children. What

536
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:06,239
Speaker 1: we find is that COVID nineteen and influenza probably are

537
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: about comparable risks. They are both, they both they both

538
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: have the same burden of illness in children. Actually, arguably

539
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 1: you could say influenza as a higher burden in children.

540
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: So what schools do for influenza, that should be what

541
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 1: they're doing for COVID nineteen. And I think it's even

542
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 1: it's even more the case because the vaccine for COVID nineteen,

543
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 1: which is which students twelve years and up are eligible before,

544
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 1: is much more effective than the flu the flu vaccine.

545
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 1: So I think we're in an okay place when it

546
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 1: comes to schooling. I don't think the pool testing or

547
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 1: asymptomatic testing is something that we should do in schools

548
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 1: because you're going to get a lot of false positives,

549
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 1: You're going to have a lot of disruption. I think

550
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 1: that we can continue the other mitigation measures of masks,

551
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 1: trying to vaccinate the population, social distancing, but school should

552
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 1: be open now, and I don't think testing should be

553
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 1: a barrier uh for for opening for opening school? Dr Delta,

554
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 1: can you square the discrepancy between what you're saying, which

555
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 1: is essentially we're moving into a new phase of the

556
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 1: pandemic where it's no longer the pandemic, but it's just

557
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 1: another illness us that we need to deal with on

558
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 1: a regular basis. Whereas we have Singapore locking down after

559
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 1: a handful of cases that have been detected in the community.

560
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 1: What is the potential approach that you see as the

561
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 1: correct one internationally, especially as we see the cases surge

562
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 1: in places like India. So I think if you've got

563
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: a highly vaccinated population, you have a whole different menu

564
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 1: of options that are there. If you're a country that's

565
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 1: not highly vaccinated, like India, then your only options are

566
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 1: those same what we call non pharmaceutical interventions. Where you

567
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 1: have social distancing and you have advising people to stay

568
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 1: at home. All of that is something that you don't

569
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 1: have to do if your population is highly protected with

570
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 1: the vaccine, especially those high risk individuals. So I don't

571
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 1: think what Singapore is doing is correct. I think right

572
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 1: now the US is on the right policy for the

573
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 1: first time, probably during the pandemic, the US actually has

574
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 1: the correct policy where we've decoupled cases from severe severe disease,

575
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 1: hospitalizations and death, which is exactly what the vaccine was

576
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,239
Speaker 1: designed to do. So I think that that's the policy now,

577
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: is to vaccinate your population as much as possible. In

578
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 1: the only reason that you should be pushing these non

579
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 1: pharmaceutical interventions is if you have not vaccinated enough of

580
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 1: your high risk populations and you're worried about your hospitals

581
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 1: going into crisis. We've removed that ability in the United

582
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 1: States by vaccinating those high risk individuals. Dr. Dodger. We

583
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 1: also are looking at strains and other variants, and people

584
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 1: sometimes point to that to say, look, we need to

585
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 1: still remain vigilant and still remain cautious with respect to

586
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 1: tracking the virus and making sure that you take social

587
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 1: distancings precautions, and do you think that's fearmongering. Do you

588
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 1: think that that's sort of unnecessary given the fact that

589
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 1: a lot of the the vaccines have shown to be

590
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: proved effective against some of these strains. Definitely, when when

591
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 1: you have a fully vaccinated population, a high percentage of

592
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 1: your population fully vaccinated, those variants, even the more problematic

593
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 1: variants like one three one from South Africa, they are

594
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 1: still unable to cause serious disease, hospitalization in debt. Certainly,

595
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 1: if you're an unvaccinated person, those variants do pose a

596
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 1: risk to you, and if you're a unvaccinated country, it

597
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 1: can be a real problem, as we've seen in places

598
00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 1: like India. But I think that the variants are something

599
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 1: that are vack scenes are very robust against. So the

600
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: solution to the variants is to get vaccinated into vaccinate

601
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 1: as much of your of your population as possible. Door down.

602
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: You always gonna hate from me, sir as, always come

603
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 1: back soon, dtr MESSI down to Dow Jones, Health consense

604
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 1: to house security, Sania Scalta. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

605
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to

606
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 1: ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television

607
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 1: each day from six to nine am for insight from

608
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And

609
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 1: subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg

610
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 1: dot com, and of course, on the terminal. I'm Tom Keene,

611
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 1: and this is Bloomberg