WEBVTT - AMA President: 'Extremely Worried About Second Wave' 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:03.720 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.320 Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.160 latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.280 all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors, 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:16.439 and of course Carol that's part of a team of 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:19.959 twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than a 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:22.959 hundred and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:26.079 Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:28.280 can also listen to our radio show at two pm 0:00:28.320 --> 0:00:31.159 Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:36.080 YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. Yeah. I realized getting 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:39.680 ready for this show that we've got a trio of 0:00:39.720 --> 0:00:43.120 guests from Atlanta today. Very excited about that. And our 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:45.800 first is Patrise Harris. She is back with us, Dr 0:00:45.840 --> 0:00:48.800 Patrise Harris, she's the president of the American Medical Association. 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:51.680 On the phone from the a t oh my hometown. 0:00:52.240 --> 0:00:54.800 Dr Harris. Really nice to have you back with us. 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:58.600 A very timely conversation. And your geography is relevant in 0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:01.000 part because that's where I want to art help us 0:01:01.080 --> 0:01:05.600 understand what reopening looks like so far, it's top of 0:01:05.600 --> 0:01:09.639 mind for all of us. Well, thank you for having 0:01:09.680 --> 0:01:12.480 me and glad to know you are a fellow A 0:01:12.600 --> 0:01:16.640 c Eliot. Uh. You know, certainly we've been concerted. The 0:01:16.640 --> 0:01:19.800 am A positions across this country have been concerned about 0:01:20.319 --> 0:01:28.160 premature reopening, especially without regard to data and metrics. And 0:01:28.640 --> 0:01:33.080 you know, the original plan from the administration's task force 0:01:33.280 --> 0:01:36.200 was really a good plan, and it's set forth at 0:01:36.240 --> 0:01:41.360 least fourteen days of uh decreased in sections, and so 0:01:41.800 --> 0:01:44.839 I'm really concerned. I remained concerned, and I just read 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:49.600 a report today about a church in Georgia who has 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:51.840 been opened for a couple of weeks, but several of 0:01:51.840 --> 0:01:57.240 the members have now become positive and so they are reclosing. 0:01:57.440 --> 0:02:01.480 So we certainly needs careful on on this reopening and 0:02:01.520 --> 0:02:05.760 be measured before we do so, before we relax restrictions. 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:10.000 So do we need to so is that you're kind 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:13.560 of saying we're going too fast? It could be in 0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:16.440 certain situations, and again it does depend on the data. 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:19.200 That's why it's been so important, I think to make 0:02:19.240 --> 0:02:23.080 sure that there are metrics in place to review the 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:26.880 number of hospitalizations, you know, not just the positive cases. 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:30.360 We need to look at the testing and context. Now, look, 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:33.680 we are if we increase testing, we are likely to 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:36.920 get increased number of tests as an absolute number, So 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:39.600 we also need to denominate. We need to bother number. 0:02:39.919 --> 0:02:41.880 We need the number of infections over how much we 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:45.560 are testing. We need to track hospitalization. We need to 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:49.120 have this data by zip codes so we can target 0:02:49.800 --> 0:02:53.800 interventions and know what areas we need to to focus on. 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:56.560 For instance, if there's an area where the case numbers 0:02:56.560 --> 0:03:00.520 are low, uh no new infections, no hospitalization, then you 0:03:00.560 --> 0:03:04.200 could proceed more quickly. So it's all about having the 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:09.799 metrics and loosening restrictions based on the data. Well, and 0:03:09.919 --> 0:03:12.720 Dr Harrison also feels like it sort of embedded in 0:03:12.800 --> 0:03:15.520 what you're saying is consistency of data too, And I 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:18.200 feel like I've read and heard a lot about that 0:03:18.200 --> 0:03:21.440 that you know, we're not always getting true sort of 0:03:21.480 --> 0:03:25.799 apples to apples comparisons across regions or maybe even within 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:28.160 a state. Are you guys at the a M A 0:03:28.280 --> 0:03:31.000 sort of working on on anything related to that to 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:35.600 help ensure that we are making the right comparisons here. Well, 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:39.640 I have been really concerned about the lack of standards 0:03:39.960 --> 0:03:43.480 data collection. Now. In fact, of course the A m. 0:03:43.600 --> 0:03:47.280 A wrote early on in recognition of the fact that, 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:54.720 um black, we're over representative and death, so we asked 0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:57.480 for some standard data collection, and of course we asked 0:03:57.520 --> 0:04:00.320 for a data collection on race and f to city. 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:03.960 So we really do need to be comparing apples to apples. 0:04:03.960 --> 0:04:07.200 I posted something yesterday on my social media about the 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:13.080 importance of a more standardized method for data collection, because 0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:16.479 you know, the virus doesn't stop it county borders or 0:04:16.600 --> 0:04:19.479 state borders, and so it's very important. At the very 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:23.359 least we are all looking at the same set of numbers, 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:26.840 so we can have greater understanding of the data. Dr Harris, 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:29.160 So why is it that we don't you said, you know, 0:04:29.560 --> 0:04:32.440 the metrics are very important. We need to really have 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:35.400 standardization when it comes to the data collection. So why 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:37.359 is it that I can have my home device, whether 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:39.520 it's Google or Amazon, they know when I'm out of 0:04:39.560 --> 0:04:43.440 something or probably should be reordering something. Um, they can 0:04:43.680 --> 0:04:46.520 do so much. Why is it that there's so much 0:04:46.520 --> 0:04:51.080 information out there yet we don't yet have the standardization 0:04:51.120 --> 0:04:53.600 in the metrics the census right I think about how 0:04:53.600 --> 0:04:55.840 many things I got on that why is it that 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:58.159 we haven't been able to create some kind of standardized 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:02.880 system for data collection? Well, well, that is the question, 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:04.839 isn't it. And let me just say of christ being 0:05:04.839 --> 0:05:08.120 in Atlanta and working personally, of course, the AM as 0:05:08.160 --> 0:05:11.200 a lot of partnerships with the CDC, and I'm a 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:14.919 former health director, I can tell you uh that public 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:17.000 health from the national level, from the state and the 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:21.720 local level, has been underfunded over the last several years, 0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:24.200 and that we need the funding. We need to get 0:05:24.200 --> 0:05:28.560 the support to public health so that they can modernized 0:05:28.680 --> 0:05:32.880 data collection and make sure the data collection is standardized, 0:05:32.920 --> 0:05:34.840 so that that would help. We need to get the resource. 0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:38.880 Event but help me out some because Americans spend something 0:05:38.920 --> 0:05:41.480 like three point six trillion dollars on healthcare. And I 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:45.280 understand that's going to services and supporting hospitals and so 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:48.279 on and so forth and facilities, but why isn't some 0:05:48.440 --> 0:05:51.640 of that money at this point in the game, you know, 0:05:51.760 --> 0:05:55.279 creating some kind of system so that we have great 0:05:55.360 --> 0:05:59.479 data collection. Well, certainly that is our recommendation from the 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:02.359 A and a UM and and we have called again 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:05.760 from the very beginning for coordinated strategy because again this 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:10.479 requires some coordination with with federal leadership, and that has 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:13.400 been our act since the very beginning, not just on 0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:17.919 data collection, but also on supplies and testing and PPE. 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:22.760 So we will continue to raise and amplify that issue. 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:25.960 I'll say something more broadly, even free COVID nine teams. 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:30.360 You know, public health is difficult, uh to explain because 0:06:30.360 --> 0:06:33.360 it's almost public health is is work work best when 0:06:33.560 --> 0:06:36.320 people don't even know it, right, when no one gets 0:06:36.320 --> 0:06:40.839 sick at a restaurant because of inspections. And so I 0:06:41.000 --> 0:06:44.680 hope it is my hope, uh, that everyone now has 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:47.800 a better understanding of the importance of public health in 0:06:47.839 --> 0:06:52.440 the overall healthcare ecosystem, and that we look at more 0:06:52.520 --> 0:06:57.320 resources than we certainly pay attention to UM improved data collection. 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:00.240 Our guest at this hour is Dr Patrice r As, 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:03.440 President of the American Medical Association, joining us on the 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:06.360 phone from Atlanta. Hey, I just want to Dr Harris, 0:07:06.400 --> 0:07:08.520 if I may just one more question in terms of 0:07:08.600 --> 0:07:11.320 data collection, because someone calling me out on Twitter and say, 0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:13.720 wait a minute, you ask you know, as if the 0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:17.400 data collection from tech companies is a good thing. UM, 0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:20.880 And this an individual says I disagree privacy is more important. 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:24.160 Is that part of what's holding everything up is the 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:27.160 privacy concerns, which are which are important ones. But I 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:30.560 just do wonder if that's what's slowing down our ability 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:34.480 to really get some standardized data collection when it comes 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:39.240 to the virus. You know, I don't think it's necessarily 0:07:39.440 --> 0:07:44.480 slowing down progress on using technology, but it is an 0:07:44.480 --> 0:07:48.600 important consideration. UM. At the A M A we've been 0:07:48.680 --> 0:07:52.280 engaged and we just released what we call our Privacy 0:07:52.440 --> 0:07:58.360 Principles around data UM and so I just don't think 0:07:58.440 --> 0:08:03.920 that integrating obviously and concerns about competent reality should slow 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:07.560 the process down. It should inform the process. But just 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:11.600 from my viewing, it doesn't necessarily have to slow the 0:08:11.640 --> 0:08:14.760 process down. We'll just have to take that into consideration 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:17.800 as we use data, use technology, and and it will 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:22.000 say because you know, contract contact tracing is not new, right, 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:24.840 We've been using that in public house for some time. 0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:28.000 Technology has a role to play, but you know, we 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:32.480 cannot forget the human connection. Even before COVID nineteen, we 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:36.240 may be contacting someone and letting them know some not 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:40.199 so great information from difficult information. So it's about integrating 0:08:40.240 --> 0:08:46.160 appropriately technology with the human touch well, and the human 0:08:46.200 --> 0:08:48.640 touch I feel like is front of mine for people 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:50.679 as they try and reopen. We talked a little bit 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:53.679 about that a few minutes ago. Dr Harris, how much 0:08:53.679 --> 0:08:56.400 are you worried about a second wave of this hitting 0:08:56.400 --> 0:09:00.439 in the fall, Well, I'm extremely worried. You. That's been 0:09:00.440 --> 0:09:02.520 the worry all along from the beginning. I think we 0:09:02.559 --> 0:09:05.000 should remind everyone that one of the reasons that this 0:09:05.080 --> 0:09:09.120 is my my term our emergency mitigation where we really 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:11.960 encourage everyone to shelter in place, because as you recall, 0:09:12.440 --> 0:09:16.320 we were worried about making decisions about who would get 0:09:16.559 --> 0:09:20.000 on a ventilator if we did not have on a ventilator. 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:23.920 So I think people forget that and so appropriately we 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:28.520 are having conversations about loosening uh these restrictions, but we 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:30.720 have to make sure again that we are measured in 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:33.880 our approach and if we have and if we go slowly, 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:38.280 if there's a flight uptick, we know that data immediately 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:42.160 and we can immediately reassess and readjust that. That is 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:46.840 how we should be moving forward, loosening, reassessing and readjusting 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:50.880 as necessary. But it is scary when you see China 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:53.480 doing another lockdown. I think of more than a hundred 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:56.960 million people and and I think specifically Wuhan. So you know, 0:09:57.080 --> 0:10:00.439 it's it's it isn't a clear straight path forward, and 0:10:00.640 --> 0:10:04.520 that's certainly is um Ner rocking. The other thing, we're 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:06.840 all trying to figure out treatments. What did you make 0:10:07.360 --> 0:10:10.160 of the President coming out and saying that he is 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:15.120 taking hydroxy chloroquine and this is a drug I mean, 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:18.640 Anna has come out and and and actually cautioned against 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:21.840 the use of some of these medicines, including I believe this. 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:27.560 So what is your takeaway from that? Well, here's we're 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:30.679 we stand at the A M A. We start and 0:10:30.720 --> 0:10:33.160 begin with the science and the evidence and the fact 0:10:33.280 --> 0:10:38.520 and as of today, there is no evidence that hydroxychloricum works, 0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:43.239 either in treatment or in the prevention of COVID nineteen 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:49.079 research trials are underway as we speak regarding hydroxy chloroquine, 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:53.280 and we really need to let the research pan out 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:56.600 to know if this is safe. But what we do 0:10:56.679 --> 0:11:00.280 know now is the FDA has caution as into the 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:05.080 use of hydroclor went outside of the hospital setting where 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:07.520 you can't be monitored. So we we stand with the 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:10.080 science and the evidence just got about thirty seconds. Do 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:12.880 is this complicate though? A m A members doctors who 0:11:12.880 --> 0:11:15.720 are out in the field when the president does this 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:18.480 and maybe patients come to them. I'm just curious what 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:21.400 you're hearing and just quickly if you could, okay, well, 0:11:21.480 --> 0:11:25.000 it definite complements complicate. You know, physicians have always had 0:11:25.720 --> 0:11:28.320 shared decision making with our patients, going over the risk 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:30.920 and the benefits, and we talk about the benefits even 0:11:30.920 --> 0:11:34.360 when they're life threatening. So this is our usual course 0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:37.840 of work. All right, well, great to catch up with you. 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:40.840 We always appreciate your time. Dr Patrice Harris, president of 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:44.880 the American Medical Association, joining us on the phone from Atlanta. 0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:48.400 And you know, a clear takeaway there is the data, 0:11:48.440 --> 0:11:52.080 the consistency of data, and the ability to really compare 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:54.760 and contrast. And I was glad that Dr Harris called 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:57.280 back to our earlier conversation where she was talking about 0:11:57.280 --> 0:12:03.920 those underrepresented and over um exposed in many cases populations, 0:12:04.360 --> 0:12:08.080 uh really over indexing in some of the different socio 0:12:08.080 --> 0:12:12.880 economic UH sectors. There so an important reminder, uh. There. 0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:17.040 You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:20.760 Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. All right, let's do a 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:24.160 little Business week economics here. Kathleen Hayes, Global Economics and 0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:28.480 Policy Editor, back at h Q. Uh you're to hear 0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:31.600 how that's all going. She's Nar Bloomberg Interactor Broker Studio. 0:12:31.640 --> 0:12:34.480 I'm miss Sar Bloomberg Interactor Broker Studio. Carol Masser, Carl 0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:38.079 Ricka Donna also with US, Chief you economist for Bloomberg Economics. 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:41.880 He's on the phone in New Jersey. So k H 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:44.160 I want to start with you. I'm guessing you have 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:49.120 been watching UH Chair Powell and Secretary Minuchin very closely 0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:52.520 as we have. What's your big takeaway so far? Because 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:54.480 the market, at least on the equity side, it's like, 0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:58.800 all right, well, you know the backdrop for this, of course. 0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:04.280 The backdrop for of course is that the uh Democrats 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:07.840 and Republicans are you know, they're they're battling over whether 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.600 or not more stimulus would be needed now right away, 0:13:10.679 --> 0:13:12.839 how much or not. So that's the backdrop. And I 0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:17.360 think for both UH Chirt Powell and Secretary Mutun they 0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:20.600 went into this knowing that that for you know, from Mutune, 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:23.120 for example, the Democrats would beat him up like crazy, 0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:25.560 and for Pow, knowing that they would push him hard 0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:28.400 to say clearly, yeah, I'm with you guys, let's do 0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:32.160 more stimulus now, and a Chair Pow, predictably, I think, 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:35.520 slipped into the typical FED chair pattern that you kind 0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:37.720 of have to, which is to say yes, I think 0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:40.800 there could be more stimulus. But he said I'm speaking generally, 0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:43.000 in other words, it's up to you guys to do this, 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:45.480 and you guys decide what that should be. And I 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.880 think um anutun predictably said well, look, we've done lots 0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:52.120 of things. Yes, there's been some problems. Uh, And he 0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:53.720 I think it was much more wanting to be focused 0:13:53.760 --> 0:13:55.600 on all the things they've done that are falling into place. 0:13:55.840 --> 0:13:57.839 So long on the short of it, I don't know 0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:01.439 if if these testimonies did much more than reassure people, 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:04.680 certainly from the FED, that they're saying they're still he's 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:07.040 still willing to do more if needed. And I think 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:10.439 even Chair Powell isn't ready to say today, yes we're 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:12.480 gonna do more because they've you know, they've got four 0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:15.120 more out of nine programs to launch, etcetera. They have 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:18.400 to see the impact they have. But again, I think 0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:21.160 you we pretty much we pretty much figured this is 0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:22.920 the kind of day were again. I thought it was interesting, 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:25.200 but I don't think it it gave told us anything 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:29.720 particularly new, anything new. Carl Rickadanna, Well, I think that 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:32.000 the you know, the new angle here is how much 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:36.440 pressure there's going to be on the fiscal stimulus. The 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:39.680 the amazing amount of fiscal stimulus that we have delivered 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:43.560 in the current quarter really is just enough to get 0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:45.840 us through that quarter. And so if we're if we're 0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:49.760 looking at an economy that still is significantly impaired as 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:51.680 we head into the second half of the year, and 0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:54.000 most likely that's going to be the case. We'll probably 0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:57.760 have an unemployment rate that about as we turned into 0:14:57.760 --> 0:15:00.960 the back half of the year than or support is 0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:03.280 definitely going to be needed, and that's a fiscal story 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:06.360 that Congresses in the administration have to deal with. It 0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:09.480 also will likely mean that FED has to do more 0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:12.360 as well, and a slew of FED speakers from the 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:15.960 chair on down have made it abundantly clear that policy 0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:18.240 makers are not in a neutral setting at the moment. 0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:21.680 They are definitely looking to lean in and do more. 0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:24.080 They're just figuring out the best way to deliver that 0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:27.120 a combination. Well, yay, just telling something really quickly. I 0:15:27.160 --> 0:15:28.760 think the question is, yeah, but if we're going to 0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:30.880 do more, what more are we going to do? Who 0:15:30.960 --> 0:15:33.320 was it who said recently, you know, let's just let's 0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:38.280 put the money directly into people's pockets, right, let's go 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:41.560 just give more money to people who who can't get work, 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:43.880 who are out of work, who are you know whatever? 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:46.840 And I think that's why this gets so complicated because 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:50.520 there are many industries, there's many businesses, there's many kinds 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:53.000 of people who have been hurt by this. And I 0:15:53.360 --> 0:15:56.640 think what um some people would like to see, which 0:15:56.680 --> 0:15:59.480 is remember when we criticize Berninke back during the crisis 0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:03.880 and of the financial crisis, too many programs that that 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:06.560 whole idea, maybe just have a helicopter that drops money 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:08.800 on people's front lawns, right. I think that's part of 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:11.400 the issue here. If we're going to spend more money, 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:13.320 who is it going to support? How is it going 0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:16.520 to support them? But it struck me that the money 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:19.760 to like small business, that we're still main street, main street, right, 0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:21.840 that program we're still waiting for that to kick in, 0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:27.440 And that to me seems Carl's so important to this economy. Absolutely, 0:16:27.480 --> 0:16:32.760 so I'm all for Kathleen's advocacy of providing unemployment support. 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:36.480 Maybe not literal helicopters. I thought you were. I thought 0:16:36.520 --> 0:16:39.120 you were supporting the helicopter, But you stay socially distanced 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:42.160 from a helicopter. Carlson. That helicopter can land in my 0:16:42.200 --> 0:16:45.840 front yard, by the way, But unemployment insurance is really 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:49.920 one of the most critical tools for delivering funds and 0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:53.360 filling the void where it's most acute during this crisis. However, 0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:55.640 we also have to think of the business side, the 0:16:55.680 --> 0:16:59.400 supply side of the occasion of the equation, because if 0:16:59.400 --> 0:17:02.120 we're not reporting those businesses, there won't be jobs to 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:05.399 go back to when the lockdown is released, and so 0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:07.639 we really have to provide support on both sides. But 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:10.000 the main danger is, and we highlighted this from the 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:13.879 very start, uh to be too clever in delivery, and 0:17:13.920 --> 0:17:16.640 we saw that with the small business program. We also 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:18.719 see that with the main street lending program, that if 0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:22.639 things are overly engineered and overly elegant, often they're not 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:26.399 as effective as just a blunt force solution to the problem. 0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:29.480 So you really try multiple different things but make sure 0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:32.679 the cash is getting where it needs to go. And Carl, 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:35.600 is the data. Are the data showing us in any 0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:38.320 sense at this point like sort of what's working and 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:42.080 what's not? When will we see that? Well, I think 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:47.080 most importantly to watch for for what's working our measures 0:17:47.200 --> 0:17:49.760 like Well, first of all, financial markets are a great 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:52.399 sentiment educators. So the fact that the financial markets have 0:17:52.560 --> 0:17:55.960 come back to a meaningful degree tells you that maybe 0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:57.320 there is a light at the end of the tunnel 0:17:57.359 --> 0:17:59.520 for the crisis. The other thing to keep an eye 0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:03.520 on our other sentiment gauges like consumer confidence or small 0:18:03.560 --> 0:18:07.720 business sentiment, home builder sentiment, and those are starting to 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:11.440 at least show a floor it's not some signs of recovery, 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:15.000 but most critically will be the labor market metrics, because 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:17.679 we need to get through the worst of this spike 0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:20.560 and unemployment to see that the economy is starting to 0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:22.800 move on to a more even cue. So maybe we 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:26.560 also need a virus confidence or lack of confidence index, 0:18:26.600 --> 0:18:29.160 because so many people say over and over and over, 0:18:29.240 --> 0:18:32.199 until people are confident, until there's going to be a vaccine. Well, 0:18:32.240 --> 0:18:34.200 I don't think we can wait for a vaccine necessarily 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:36.040 because they usually take a lot longer. But I think 0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:39.040 this whole sense of when does the tide turn enough? 0:18:39.359 --> 0:18:41.960 When are there enough treatments? Maybe those can be developed 0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:45.440 a lot more quickly where people are more willing to say, yeah, 0:18:45.680 --> 0:18:47.040 I know a lot of people. I have a friend 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:49.119 who works for the airlines. She went back to work 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:51.840 for her airline a couple of weeks ago. There are 0:18:51.840 --> 0:18:53.360 people who are going out there. There are people who 0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:55.560 would love to shop. There are people who are scared, 0:18:55.760 --> 0:18:57.760 and they maybe should be that they won't go near 0:18:57.840 --> 0:19:00.399 this for the long time. Carl, do you think you 0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:03.760 could get something like that started? Famous confidencing? Next, Let's 0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:06.679 let's let me see what I can do. But importantly, 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:08.920 we can measure that confidence and a lot of other 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:13.400 series like the ones I mentioned deferences, business gauges, financial 0:19:13.440 --> 0:19:16.119 market performance. So of course, if we had a confidence 0:19:16.240 --> 0:19:20.639 metric of you know, people's attitudes towards COVID nineteen and 0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:23.600 and whatnot, that would be useful, but it shows up 0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:27.600 indirectly through a lot of other economic gauges. Alright, Calera, Godonna, 0:19:27.720 --> 0:19:31.560 Kathleen Hayes, thank you both so much. Good breakdown from 0:19:31.600 --> 0:19:34.760 what we're hearing. Continue to hear a lot from that 0:19:34.920 --> 0:19:37.959 chair at j Powe. This is Bloomberg Business Week with 0:19:38.040 --> 0:19:42.000 Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. We want 0:19:42.000 --> 0:19:43.840 to move on to our next segment because man if 0:19:43.880 --> 0:19:46.520 Tom Keane doesn't know about this next guest in his company, 0:19:46.640 --> 0:19:50.040 we make sure he does. We're talking about bow Ties 0:19:50.160 --> 0:19:54.000 of Vermont, which started out making bow ties years ago, 0:19:54.119 --> 0:19:56.359 now does a lot more, including making masks to protect 0:19:56.359 --> 0:19:59.280 against the virun's transparency. I was doing research for this 0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:01.639 segment and I went to the website. I bought two masks. 0:20:02.080 --> 0:20:04.199 I'm just gonna tell you, uh. This week in our 0:20:04.200 --> 0:20:08.639 Bloomberg Business Week Small Business Survival Guide, we welcome Greg Sugar. 0:20:08.720 --> 0:20:10.960 He's the owner of bow Ties Evermont. He joined on 0:20:11.000 --> 0:20:13.640 the phone though from Florida, along with our Bloomberg News 0:20:13.720 --> 0:20:17.040 editor Demitra Cassanedi. She's on the phone in New Jersey. Demetra, 0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:19.639 let's start with you. Tell us how you were drawn 0:20:19.680 --> 0:20:24.720 to Greg and bow Ties for your coverage. Sure, thanks, 0:20:24.720 --> 0:20:28.120 Carol um Well. I saw a post of his on LinkedIn, 0:20:28.280 --> 0:20:30.439 which is part of his story. I've talked to Greg 0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:33.159 in the past and connected on LinkedIn because of one 0:20:33.200 --> 0:20:35.800 of his other businesses a few years ago through an experiment, 0:20:36.240 --> 0:20:38.000 and I saw a post that said that he had 0:20:38.040 --> 0:20:40.919 masks and he was having a hard time finding people 0:20:40.920 --> 0:20:43.119 to buy the mask. This was in the first phase 0:20:43.160 --> 0:20:46.040 of his businesses to it when they thought and tried 0:20:46.119 --> 0:20:50.040 to do ppe and bring in the actual, you know, 0:20:50.320 --> 0:20:55.240 verified safe protective mask. So, um, so I chatted with Greg. 0:20:55.359 --> 0:20:57.840 I called him up, and we have spent a back 0:20:57.840 --> 0:21:01.920 and forth documenting his journey of the last two months. 0:21:01.920 --> 0:21:05.080 That will be publishing on our Small Business Survival Guy tomorrow. 0:21:05.600 --> 0:21:08.439 Um But it's really an extraordinary journey that's about maths, 0:21:08.480 --> 0:21:11.840 but really about listen to your customers, respond when they 0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:15.119 say they want something, and really be prepared, you know, 0:21:15.200 --> 0:21:20.520 to just kind of be very nimble and react quickly. Absolutely, 0:21:20.560 --> 0:21:22.840 I mean a big pivot here, Greg, So tell us 0:21:22.840 --> 0:21:24.800 about it, because one of the things it sounds like 0:21:24.840 --> 0:21:28.080 you did was think about your supply chain and your 0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:31.320 suppliers and your relationships in sort of a different way. 0:21:31.400 --> 0:21:36.080 Help us understand it. Sure, Um, Well, when when everything 0:21:36.119 --> 0:21:38.280 was sort of happening and we heard about all these 0:21:38.280 --> 0:21:42.280 shortages going on in hospitals, I was wondering why why 0:21:42.320 --> 0:21:45.359 there was a shortage, and my first instinct was, you know, 0:21:45.440 --> 0:21:47.040 there there must be a way to get this stuff in. 0:21:47.080 --> 0:21:51.240 And so I quickly contacted my contact in China and 0:21:51.520 --> 0:21:53.560 so when I've been doing business with for fifteen years, 0:21:53.600 --> 0:21:55.680 and I said, you know, we're there's a mass shortage, 0:21:55.680 --> 0:21:58.560 of protective mass shortage here in America. Are you guys 0:21:58.600 --> 0:22:01.280 able to create some thing? And he said, yeah, there's 0:22:01.280 --> 0:22:04.920 a lot of businesses now for getting getting started and 0:22:04.960 --> 0:22:08.359 producing uh in manufacturing these protective masks. So he and 0:22:08.400 --> 0:22:11.560 I spent about one or two days together, uh literally 0:22:12.000 --> 0:22:14.760 traveling China. I was doing it through wheat Chat, and 0:22:14.800 --> 0:22:16.560 we reached out and we finally found a couple of 0:22:16.560 --> 0:22:20.000