1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:11,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,599 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Dominic Constant 11 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 2: with us just absolutely definitives. Paul gave us wonderful perspective 12 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 2: yesterday of Credit Sweee at Madison Avenue twenty three years ago. 13 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:00,240 Speaker 2: The foundation that Neil Sass did at Credit Swee was 14 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 2: a research of Dominic Constem surrounded by people like a 15 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:08,119 Speaker 2: young turk Irid Jersey, who now runs all of Bloomberg Intelligence. 16 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 2: Fixed income Dominic Constam has the chart that has shown 17 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:17,679 Speaker 2: how wrong we have been for how long. It is 18 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 2: the hair chart, and you take the interest rate and 19 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:24,480 Speaker 2: then you forecast out what you think yields are going 20 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 2: to do in the whole racket always feels yields are 21 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 2: going back up, back up, back up, and they look 22 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 2: like wisps of hair on a chart, and for the 23 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 2: most part they've been wrong, wrong, wrong. What does the 24 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 2: hair look like into twenty twenty five. 25 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 3: Well, that the hair for a while, the last year 26 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 3: or two obviously has had the market sort of begging 27 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 3: for a rate cuts from the FED, and the FED 28 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 3: pushing back and back and back. So now we're sort 29 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 3: of having another go at that where basically the market 30 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 3: is obviously a deeply discounting of Fed cuts getting under 31 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 3: three percent in the year or two. So we'll see 32 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 3: if the market's are wrong again. But so obviously we're 33 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 3: expecting the Fed finally to open the door to a 34 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 3: fairly aggressive easing cycle, and so we would expect them 35 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 3: to pretty much validate what the market is doing for 36 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 3: the first time. 37 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 4: Okay, what's the FED really looking at here? A lot 38 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 4: of folks are saying that it's kind of moved away 39 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 4: from its focus on inflation and maybe looking towards just 40 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 4: economic growth, labor, that type of thing. What do you 41 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 4: think they're really looking at this? 42 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:35,679 Speaker 3: Well, I mean it's I think it's very clear and 43 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 3: Pale for people who sort of, you know, dig deeply 44 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 3: into the data and the FED mindset. I think Pale's 45 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 3: Jackson Hole speech was very profound. He basically took work 46 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 3: that Chris Swaller, the Governor Waller had been doing a 47 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 3: year or two earlier on the labor market, and basically, 48 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:54,920 Speaker 3: you look at the COVID labor market, you look at 49 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:59,119 Speaker 3: the pre COVID labor market, you look at what has 50 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 3: changed and normalized or hasn't changed and has yet to normalize. 51 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 3: And it's that sort of normalization process that is creating 52 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 3: great concern. The idea that, for example, layoff rates are 53 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 3: very low still, you know, you want to go back 54 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,079 Speaker 3: to pre COVID layoff rates for a normalized labor market. 55 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 3: And as soon as you do that, the trade off 56 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:22,640 Speaker 3: between for example, vacancies coming down and unemployment going up, 57 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 3: that trade off really deteriorates. So when the FED is 58 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:27,800 Speaker 3: saying we're worried about the labor market, we're looking at 59 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:30,640 Speaker 3: the labor market is not that you know, unemployment's four 60 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 3: point three percent. You know that's not a bad number. 61 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 3: That's not the point at all. It's the idea that 62 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 3: if there is a further slowing in demand for labor 63 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 3: in terms of vacancy rates dropping, the rate of increase 64 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 3: in unemployment could accelerate and the FED could easily be 65 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 3: facing a five or six percent unemployment rate. 66 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 5: That's what they're focused on. 67 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 4: So if you were to go down that route, we 68 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 4: would suggest maybe the next argument would be the Fed's late. 69 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 4: They should be should have already been cutting rates. 70 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 5: Are you in that? 71 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think its risk reward. Yeah, absolutely, 72 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 3: I think they should be cutting rates. They should start 73 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 3: with a bang, not a whimpa. That means fifty to fifty. 74 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 4: But maybe the loocent data took that off the table. 75 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 5: If you're going to look at the backward, if you're going. 76 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 3: To look backwards or what the current data set, which 77 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 3: is backwards, and obviously you know you're going to start 78 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 3: with a whimper. But that's not necessarily the right thing 79 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 3: to do. But Wallace said last week, you know, if 80 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 3: they needs to accelerate, they will, and yeah, yeah, I 81 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 3: think they'll need to accelerate. 82 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 2: We're math free on Thursdays, but let's go there. I'm sorry. 83 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 2: There is a codified belief that a measured approach leads 84 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 2: to a better anchored expectation out where it gets almost 85 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 2: an inertial force. I'm talking Newtonian physics. Jealousy here, folks. 86 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 2: There's almost an inertial force, a weight advantage to being measured. 87 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 2: Do you buy it? Or should we be more like 88 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 2: the world of Arthur Burns and do what we believe 89 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:50,320 Speaker 2: in have a conviction? 90 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 5: Well, I guess. 91 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 3: I mean, if you want to start, you know, with 92 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 3: a measured approach, and as long as you credibly commit 93 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:02,359 Speaker 3: to an accelerated willingness to accelerate and become if you like, 94 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:05,279 Speaker 3: less measured, then yeah, sure you can do that. I 95 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 3: mean the FAED kind of did that with the inflation fight. 96 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 3: You know, it started with twenty five. They went to 97 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:11,839 Speaker 3: fifty before you knew what they were doing seventy five 98 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 3: and was that so damaging? Well, you know maybe with hindsight, 99 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 3: wasn't that bad and they did get an inflation under control. 100 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,240 Speaker 3: So yes, I mean, you know you could do that. 101 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 3: I think it would be equally fair to say, though 102 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 3: it's almost like a smile where if they were if 103 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 3: they're so sort of you know, soft and for example, 104 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 3: didn't even cut rates, that would be an absolute disasters 105 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 3: in the first place, and if they were so aggressive 106 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 3: then started with one hundred, yes, that might be a 107 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 3: disaster as well. It might panic people. So somewhere, you know, 108 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 3: in between is where they're going. And it's a natural 109 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:42,039 Speaker 3: choice my. 110 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 2: Take on this, Paul, As we presume we have a 111 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 2: crystal ball, Yeah, I mean it's all there, it's just math. 112 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 5: And yes, I don't know, I have trouble with it. 113 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, Aaron Jersey, I don't know. Real quickly, here we 114 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 4: have a little bit of a look back. Now we 115 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 4: have some a couple of years to kind of look 116 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 4: back at inflation. Where did o inflation come from? Because 117 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 4: that was a wicked baut of inflation? 118 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 2: What are you were? The debate last name with Trump. 119 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 3: And maybe well, inflation was really insidious this time. I 120 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 3: mean people try and compair it with the nineteen seventies. 121 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 3: Nineteen seventies inflation was not nearly as insidious, not only 122 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 3: as people remember it, but also economically when you look 123 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,720 Speaker 3: at it and where it came from was basically companies 124 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 3: checking up prices and selling the same stuff for more 125 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 3: but less of it. I mean it was really kind 126 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 3: of like supply driven controlling it, and in economics we 127 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 3: call that things like price discrimination. It's all this sort 128 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 3: of dynamic pricing which now is all over the place, 129 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,839 Speaker 3: you know where basically consumers are are being having their. 130 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 4: Sort of airline tickets. 131 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly, consumer transfer profits. 132 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 2: That's right, London School of Economics. The price discrimination question, 133 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 2: right is airline tickets. 134 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 3: Yeah. Inflation is always in everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Absolutely not, 135 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 3: I mean, that's what it isn't It isn't always and 136 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 3: everywhere from monetary phenomenon, it's partly due to corporate pricing acts, 137 00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 3: egregious corporate price is. 138 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 2: It Are they pulling back now to the most stable 139 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:02,680 Speaker 2: and help time. 140 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 3: We run a model that kind of looks at that, 141 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 3: and you can show that the rate of increase in that, 142 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 3: if you like, price discrimination has actually slowed down to 143 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 3: a standstill. 144 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 5: So we're taking your time out. 145 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 2: One of the hallmarks of Bloomberg surveilans folks, Good morning 146 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 2: listening and watching across this nation as you get lucky 147 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 2: when you have the right guest at the right time. 148 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 2: With breaking news, the ECB cut interest rates moments ago. 149 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 2: That's not a surprise that was widely anticipated, but the 150 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 2: growth view, and they do this much clearer than the FED. 151 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 2: The growth view out twenty six, looking at real GDP, 152 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 2: looking at the animal spirit of nominal GDP is absolutely stunning. 153 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 2: Dominic constam is with us, with Mizuo, with us all 154 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 2: of his correlated abilities. Here there's a call for week dollar. 155 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 2: George Saravellos over at Deutsche Bank just said no. He 156 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 2: said people are going to be surprised it resilience of 157 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 2: dollar off of tepid e you growth. One of the 158 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 2: reasons is that where we are now, where Europe's just 159 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 2: not getting it. 160 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 3: Done well, yeah, I mean you're in Europe and the 161 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 3: rest of the world, I mean China obviously exactly, there's 162 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 3: a lot of disinflation and there's a lot of weak 163 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 3: growth in the US has been standing out as a 164 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 3: sort of bastion against that. But to be honest, I 165 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 3: mean the US is sort of following suits in a 166 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 3: in a sense at least it will either need to 167 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 3: make the choice between cutting rates very aggressively to avoid 168 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 3: as much weakness and growth perhaps going forward, or it's 169 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 3: gonna sort of suffer that growth as well. So I 170 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,840 Speaker 3: would not agree with a week with a dollar. Saying 171 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 3: strong I think the dollar is going to weaken, and 172 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 3: it's not going to be precipitous, but it will basically 173 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 3: have to weaken otherwise you can imagine, you know, the 174 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:51,960 Speaker 3: strength of our dollar would actually import a lot more 175 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 3: disinflation into the US from places like Europe and China. 176 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:56,840 Speaker 5: So we don't really want that. 177 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 3: I mean, as it is our inflation is going to target, 178 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 3: we don't want it to go well below target, which 179 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:02,319 Speaker 3: is what would always happen. 180 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:06,679 Speaker 2: Part within this caution and growth ECB, wages are still 181 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:11,079 Speaker 2: rising at elevated pace. Domestic price pressures are still high. 182 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 2: That's the tension here. Exactly into twenty twenty. 183 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 4: Five, ECB cuts growth forecast for every year through twenty 184 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:22,320 Speaker 4: twenty six. A Bloomberg News headline reads, so dominic Mizuho 185 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 4: America's Mizuho's a Japanese bank, You're a macro strategy. Where 186 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 4: are opportunities if there are outside of the US, where 187 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 4: do you see opportunities just generally when you talk to 188 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:32,959 Speaker 4: your clients. 189 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 3: Well, I mean in terms of these sort of fixed 190 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 3: income base. I mean, obviously there's a lot of interest 191 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 3: in the Japanese fixed income markets, and. 192 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 4: Where did that come from because for twenty five years, 193 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 4: Tom and I didn't even talk about Japan. 194 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,719 Speaker 3: Well, I mean, the BJA has been buying a lot 195 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 3: of for JGPS, so you know, there wasn't a lot 196 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 3: sort of available if you like other investors to buy, 197 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:56,200 Speaker 3: so there was always a sort of concern around your 198 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 3: liquidity in that market. Now the BAJA is stepping back 199 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 3: its purchases, obviously they reduced them a lot. Interest rates 200 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 3: are also normalizing, so there's some sort of yield being generated. 201 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 3: So yeah, it's becoming a proper market, and so people 202 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:08,640 Speaker 3: are definitely very much involved. 203 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 4: So when you go back to I'm guessing you go 204 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:12,920 Speaker 4: back to Tokyo once twice three times a year to 205 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:15,079 Speaker 4: see clients, if not to just you know, say hi 206 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 4: to your boss back there. What's changed in Japan? Again, 207 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 4: when I started in the mid eighties, Tokyo was a 208 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 4: tour of duty you had to have on your resume, 209 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 4: and then after that it fell off the face of 210 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 4: the earth. Nobody talked about Japan. What's changed. 211 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:35,040 Speaker 3: Well, I mean it's become very international. I mean I've 212 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 3: been in the market for a long time and they've 213 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:38,559 Speaker 3: been to Japan many times. It's definitely become a very 214 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 3: sort of international city. It's very livable city. Yep, you know, 215 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 3: people are much more more sort of open. It's also, 216 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 3: believe not very inexpensive. I mean, you know, I talked 217 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 3: about the strength of the dollar. I mean it's ridiculous. 218 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 3: You can go to Japan and it's you know, it's 219 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 3: very very inexpensive and the food is fantastic. 220 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 5: So we we love against Japan absolutely. 221 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:58,680 Speaker 2: In the time we've got left, I think we have 222 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 2: to turn to the United king them. Certainly six months 223 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 2: twelve months ago there was a shock that the growth 224 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 2: was better than what everybody figured it would be. Is 225 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:15,080 Speaker 2: that a technology or productivity overlay? I have trouble looking 226 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 2: for a constructive productivity story out of the United Kingdom. 227 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 2: Am I wrong? 228 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:23,680 Speaker 5: We're talking about the UK or the UK? 229 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, so yeah, No, it's definitely a sort of 230 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:30,160 Speaker 3: productivity story. I mean, the technology is you know, very global, 231 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 3: and I think you know, even Europe as well as 232 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:36,079 Speaker 3: the UK, they sort of mirror the US to something 233 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 3: sense in the sense that you know, we obviously have 234 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:41,839 Speaker 3: you know, productivity leading the way. Labor inputs obviously is 235 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:47,599 Speaker 3: a little bit sort of modest and you know, it's 236 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:49,559 Speaker 3: it's a way in a way it is inevitable. 237 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 5: I mean in these developing countries. When in these developed countries. 238 00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:55,320 Speaker 3: Basically when as you as you evolve with you know, 239 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 3: a very minimal population, that's the way your living standards 240 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:00,200 Speaker 3: sort of basically go up. There's a distribution of that 241 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 3: which becomes easy. 242 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 2: Distribution is the key, and in America received in the 243 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:08,199 Speaker 2: election process as well. Just to get this in as 244 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:12,280 Speaker 2: just one final question dominic costume. We are seeing interest 245 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 2: rate cuts? Can they rescue economic growth? 246 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 5: Absolutely? 247 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 3: And the good news is interest rates are so high 248 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 3: that they can come down a lot. There's also the 249 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 3: good news that balance sheets pretty much across sectors, household 250 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:32,559 Speaker 3: and corporates are actually in pretty good shape. The government 251 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 3: is obviously a slight issue, but basically that means you 252 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 3: don't have the sort of hangover that you've had in 253 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:40,440 Speaker 3: previous a significant downturns. So this is what I would 254 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 3: call a regular cycle. You just need to get rates 255 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:45,319 Speaker 3: down and things will be basically fine. 256 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 4: How's the Fed going to do that? Do they just 257 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 4: they go every period or time and I do we 258 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:51,720 Speaker 4: have to sit here and predict which meaning they're going 259 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 4: to cut which means they're not once they do start. 260 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 3: Well, I mean they basically should just do it as 261 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 3: quickly as they can do fifty base points every period. 262 00:12:57,960 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 3: If they want to start with twenty five, then go 263 00:12:59,320 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 3: to fifty. 264 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 5: That's fine. 265 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:01,599 Speaker 3: But by the middle of next year we should be 266 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:04,080 Speaker 3: pretty much at your shoal I'd say around three percent 267 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 3: plus minus. 268 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 2: Can we this year? 269 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 5: You know? 270 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 2: I mean miracles are going to happen. Look at the mats? 271 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:12,320 Speaker 2: Are you kidding me? How about that Mohammad had to 272 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:15,080 Speaker 2: be medicated last night? It was it was so good. 273 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 2: Can we get you and Rashudo in together, I know 274 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 2: you're not in speaking terms, and. 275 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 5: Stever shooto together, we'll talk to the people. 276 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 2: Would be really special meaning to do that, To do 277 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 2: that for choice, Dominique Constant working with Stever Shootout Miszoo, 278 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:30,680 Speaker 2: I can't say enough about it. Again, we protect the 279 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 2: copyright of all of our guest research. Look to Miszoo 280 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 2: for the work of Dominique Constant. Joining us now after 281 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 2: Jackson or Nila Richardson, chief economist at adp on. Where 282 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:56,680 Speaker 2: we are right now? Nila, my head is a jumble. 283 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 2: I guess we're getting CPI, mp PI surveys correct, But 284 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:08,200 Speaker 2: is the vector of disinflation actually entrenched? 285 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 6: I would say no to that question, and thanks for 286 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 6: having me on. You didn't see me get the root 287 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 6: beer floats after the trout, but that's. 288 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:18,679 Speaker 2: Fine, they were great. 289 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 6: But yeah, I think that there is no foregone conclusion 290 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 6: on inflation. The driver's inflation, Those long term drivers of 291 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 6: inflation that kept it low and basically asleep for almost 292 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 6: twenty years before this big upending of the pandemic are 293 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 6: not in place any longer. So you're talking about demographics, globalization, 294 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 6: those used to suppress inflation. Now there are a tailwind 295 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 6: to inflation. And so no, nothing is pre committed, not 296 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 6: even the fet And so yeah, when we see a 297 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 6: little uptick in PPI, like we saw today a bit 298 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,080 Speaker 6: of an uptick in CPI, we have to be a 299 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 6: little wary of what direction this is going to go 300 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 6: over the long term. 301 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 4: Talk to us about the labor market, Nila, I mean, 302 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 4: nobody has a better view to the labor market than 303 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:10,160 Speaker 4: the good folks that agent. 304 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 5: I think exactly. 305 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 2: Yes, It's like it's like the dollar Nila. 306 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 4: Signs the paycheck. Neila, how would you characterize this US 307 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 4: labor market? These days. 308 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 6: I think it's okay. You know, if I were to 309 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,680 Speaker 6: grade it graded a B B minus, I think it's 310 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 6: pretty good. We've seen unemployment stay relatively low under to me, 311 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 6: under four and a half percent. It's low unemployment you 312 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 6: look at historical levels, but we're seeing less dynamism than 313 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 6: we've actually have experienced in the past. People are staying 314 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 6: put longer in the job. You know, the US labor 315 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 6: market is characterized historically by this really dynamic turn, and 316 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 6: we're not seeing the churn now. People are playing it safe, 317 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 6: both employer employees, and that does worry me about. Also, 318 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 6: the concentration of hiring has been really segmented in a 319 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 6: couple of service providing industries like leasuring hospitality there and finally, 320 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 6: manufacturing's just shedding jobs this year, taking a friend that 321 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 6: we saw six months leading into the pandemic. So it's 322 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 6: an okay labor market. It's enough to support consumer spending, 323 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 6: but I wouldn't cheer it over a long horizon. 324 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 2: So why is Niela Richardson go to jacksonvill Why is 325 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 2: she acclaimed at ADP? Questions like this, Nila, I need 326 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 2: a dissertation right now on full time versus part time unemployment. 327 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 2: The American tone is a full time job is a 328 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 2: real job, and a part time job is for has 329 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 2: been discuss what adpcs in full time and temporary jobs. 330 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 6: Well, we got to change that narrative because what we're 331 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 6: seeing is that more and more part time not full time. 332 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 6: In fact, we've seen a noticeable increase in part time jobs. 333 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 6: It used to be about thirty six percent prior to 334 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,199 Speaker 6: the pandemic of all the jobs that we see, and 335 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:09,399 Speaker 6: we see a lot of jobs, twenty percent of the 336 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 6: US workforce we're seeing through ADP's payrolls. Now part time 337 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 6: jobs is about forty two percent of all jobs we 338 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 6: see in the database. So people have changed and the 339 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 6: workplace has changed. People want more time. There's more opportunity 340 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 6: to mix and max jobs based on your skill set. 341 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 6: Remote work makes working multiple jobs easier, so it could 342 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:41,919 Speaker 6: be coming from the workforce preferences. It also could be 343 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 6: coming from employers who have filled their bench with workers, 344 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,200 Speaker 6: but they are each worker may be asked to work 345 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 6: fewer hours per week, So we're watching that very closely. 346 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 2: Nayla, thank you so much. Nila Richardson with us with 347 00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:03,920 Speaker 2: ADP just can't say enough about our analysis in Europe. 348 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:08,879 Speaker 2: It's been different. I met Francine Lacroix Paul, she was 349 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 2: twelve years old and they said we have this intern 350 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:15,720 Speaker 2: coming in three years early. She speaks seven languages and 351 00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 2: would you just have a cup of tea with her? 352 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 2: They wouldn't let me have coffee with her, and so 353 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:24,639 Speaker 2: Francie Laquaid I looked years ago at European banking and 354 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 2: it was a train wreck. It's still a train wreck. 355 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 2: Deutsche Bank ten years trailing negative two negative three percent 356 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 2: per year performance, Deutsche Bank twenty years trailing negative three 357 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:43,639 Speaker 2: percent total return. Legarde just spoke about it in Frankfort. 358 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:47,760 Speaker 2: Here with us now Francine Lacroix with an important conversation 359 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:52,919 Speaker 2: with mister Oursel of UniCredit Italy and a potential meeting 360 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:57,399 Speaker 2: with Commerce Bank Germany. Francine, finally, are they going to 361 00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:58,879 Speaker 2: act more American? 362 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 7: I mean, I think this is a dream of Andrea Rachelle. 363 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 7: Remember he's EXUBS, he was their star investment banker. He 364 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 7: knows how to put a deal together. He's doing extremely 365 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,399 Speaker 7: well in terms of cash they have, and he's always 366 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:16,679 Speaker 7: been wanting to create this cross border consolidation, saying if 367 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,200 Speaker 7: you want to be a true bank for Europe, then 368 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 7: you need to do this. The concern is regulators, the 369 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:24,879 Speaker 7: concern is labor unions, and of course we don't have 370 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 7: a banking union, you don't have a capital markets union. 371 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 7: So this kind of shook up everyone when we found 372 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 7: out that he had over nine percent of Commerce Bank. 373 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 7: But I have to say the future is pretty uncertain. 374 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 7: I would say Tom that he would really really like 375 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:42,360 Speaker 7: to be more American, because every time over the ten 376 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 7: years that I spoke to him, he kept on saying like, ah, 377 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,680 Speaker 7: those you know, the Wall Street knows how to do this, 378 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:49,399 Speaker 7: and he kind of wants to take them on. 379 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,919 Speaker 2: I can't say enough. Twenty years at Merrill Lynchpaul in London, 380 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 2: this guy's the most American European banker. Francine told me 381 00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 2: that we're at the Dorchester with an umbrella and a cocktail. 382 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 2: Fancy told me that years ago. 383 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 5: And important stuff. 384 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 4: Francine, what do we know from the regulators in the 385 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 4: European Union about their willingness to think about this type 386 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 4: of transaction? 387 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 7: So look for the moment, it's been extremely difficult. I 388 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,920 Speaker 7: would say it's practically impossible. It seems that this week, 389 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 7: there's more of a chance that this goes through, but 390 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:24,359 Speaker 7: again you have to have the blessing of the board. 391 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 7: I don't think Andrea Orchelle unless it's very, very appetizing 392 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,000 Speaker 7: in terms of price, would go hostile. 393 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 8: I mean, he talked about it this morning. 394 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 7: He spoke to us in the middle of trying to 395 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:37,200 Speaker 7: cobble together a possible takeover. He kept on telling me, you, look, 396 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 7: there's an option of a full takeover, but for the moment, 397 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,919 Speaker 7: whatever happens, he'd be happy having a big chunk of 398 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 7: this bank because he believes that the management is doing 399 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 7: a good thing. But you know, again, on the banking union, 400 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 7: we had Mario Dragi with his competitive report this week saying, 401 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 7: even if you don't have a full banking union, you 402 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,639 Speaker 7: need to be able to transfer capital from one country 403 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 7: to thee and so at least they could agree on 404 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 7: that for the big banks, and that would make a 405 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 7: difference for a cross border merger. 406 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,639 Speaker 2: Like this, I mean for instaning. Twenty minutes ago, Le 407 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 2: Guard mentioned this transaction possible transaction in a comment of 408 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 2: the ECB. Do the institutions of Brussels and Frankfort and Strasburg. 409 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 2: I think it is I'm just trying to show my 410 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 2: nap here. It is like, really good, do they want 411 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:25,439 Speaker 2: these transactions? 412 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 7: They haven't so far, but they may be able to 413 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 7: going forward. Tom It's complicated because you have countries such 414 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:34,879 Speaker 7: as Germany and others saying, look, you can't have a 415 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:37,919 Speaker 7: common issuance when it comes to bonds. So actually we 416 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 7: talk about a European market that's extremely fragmented. So if 417 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,399 Speaker 7: you're a big bank but you can't put money from 418 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,200 Speaker 7: one from A to B, then how does it mean 419 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:47,360 Speaker 7: for client transfers? 420 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:49,440 Speaker 8: Things are moving, things are changing. 421 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 7: We had new capital rules also from the Bank of 422 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,640 Speaker 7: England's pr Today you have a new commission, so there 423 00:21:55,720 --> 00:22:00,359 Speaker 7: needs to be political capital. I would say there's something 424 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,639 Speaker 7: quite odd with one of the people that's on the 425 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:06,200 Speaker 7: board of Commerce Bank that's also very very big trade 426 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 7: union laborer. He was saying, look, we'd rather the French 427 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 7: come in than the Italians. Because remember UniCredit also bought 428 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:16,280 Speaker 7: this little bank called Hypelweheinsbank HVB over twenty years ago 429 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:18,959 Speaker 7: and dismantled it. So sure today it's profitable, that they 430 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 7: lost a lot of jobs, and so there may be 431 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 7: something in there that they want securities about how many 432 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:26,880 Speaker 7: jobs they have to kid. I'm not sure Andrey Orchell 433 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 7: would like. 434 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 2: To do that friends scene off the radar, but you're 435 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,440 Speaker 2: so attached to this, I've got to ask does Leguardy 436 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 2: have the support after CenTra, Does Lagardy have further support 437 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:41,400 Speaker 2: at the ECB or is there a fractious debate behind 438 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:43,440 Speaker 2: the scenes that we don't see. 439 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,399 Speaker 7: So look for the moment she does have support. Remember 440 00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 7: she had this scathing review four or five months ago 441 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 7: from economists in her group, saying she didn't support the 442 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:56,879 Speaker 7: economists enough. She's a bored politician, she's a bored negotiator. 443 00:22:57,840 --> 00:22:59,959 Speaker 7: But there wasn't you know, there's still quite a lot 444 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,920 Speaker 7: descent on the Government Council, something that Mario Draghi her successor, 445 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,199 Speaker 7: didn't or her predecessor didn't have because he was good 446 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 7: at listening to everyone and then saying there's only one boss, 447 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,920 Speaker 7: it's me, and you do as I say. She tries 448 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,119 Speaker 7: to find the nuance and so sometimes people feel that 449 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:16,840 Speaker 7: they can go against what she thinks. 450 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,120 Speaker 2: Franccene, we didn't have yan for Orchell in your interview 451 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 2: on UNI credit. Francine Lacroix, It's London fashion week. That's 452 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 2: what matters. We know, this Fran scene the train wreck 453 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,680 Speaker 2: of United Kingdom fashion. I'm only bringing this up because 454 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,680 Speaker 2: John Tucker's Burbery is forty two years old. But how's 455 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 2: the resurrection or Burbery going? 456 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,960 Speaker 7: This is a story, you know, all right, four pm 457 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,560 Speaker 7: on Monday, there's the catwalk. 458 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:46,920 Speaker 8: I'll be there to meet the new chief executive. 459 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 7: Now they actually found an American that comes from Coach, 460 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 7: so it'll be very interesting what he sees as the 461 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:54,240 Speaker 7: future of Burbery. 462 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 8: Is it going to go more main street? 463 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 7: I mean it's been difficult, and I wouldn't say it's 464 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 7: difficult for all UK fashion, but it's certainly been extremely 465 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:05,120 Speaker 7: difficult for Birbery. I mean they're even getting kicked out 466 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 7: of the footsie one hundred in a couple of weeks tom. 467 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 7: So this is a big deal and we'll see if 468 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 7: you know, the former Coach CEO is able to turn 469 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:13,920 Speaker 7: this round. 470 00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,919 Speaker 2: I mean, Lisa Mateo's looking at the long quilted nylon 471 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 2: trench quote in dollars, Fran seeing twenty four hundred dollars. 472 00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:26,560 Speaker 2: It's almost like Berberies underpricing themselves versus other UK and 473 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 2: Milan fashion. 474 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,159 Speaker 7: It depends on where you are in the price, right, Jay? 475 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,200 Speaker 7: Did you see the story today Tom about the row 476 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 7: by the Olsen twins. Yeah, I mean I think their 477 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,440 Speaker 7: trench codes are like three thousand, four thousand, and they 478 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:44,479 Speaker 7: have direct investments from the heirs to Chanel and the 479 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,480 Speaker 7: heirs to the Loreal family. 480 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 8: So it'll be interesting. You know, it's only worth a billion. 481 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:52,240 Speaker 7: It's a small But is the quiet luxury trend the 482 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,360 Speaker 7: one that we have to watch out in five ten years? 483 00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 8: I think that's probably the question for Birbery. 484 00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,040 Speaker 2: So this is great. I mean, one night, Paul, I mean, 485 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 2: it's a small bar, it's got a PEPs blue ribbon 486 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 2: signed Blake, and outside it's thinking Carlisle. I met the 487 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 2: Carlisle with Missus Keane, and these two girls sit down 488 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 2: next to us with six other people, and all of 489 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,080 Speaker 2: a sudden, Missus King going, oh my god, it's the 490 00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 2: throw And they were complete class acts. I can just 491 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,359 Speaker 2: report I didn't talk to them, but I can just 492 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,160 Speaker 2: report that the rogue what are they? Who are they fancying? 493 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:23,360 Speaker 2: They're twins? 494 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 7: Right, Yeah, they're the twins, the twins in the famous 495 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:28,960 Speaker 7: American TV series. 496 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:30,680 Speaker 2: Total Class There was. 497 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:38,119 Speaker 4: Twins actually, Okay. 498 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 7: Okay, I love, I'm here to talk regulation. I end 499 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:42,119 Speaker 7: up talking fashion. 500 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:46,680 Speaker 4: That's such a that's surveillance London fashion Queen France and 501 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:48,160 Speaker 4: Lacroix reporting. 502 00:25:58,000 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 2: Here daily look at the front pages. And lisam a 503 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,680 Speaker 2: Taylor hour. She works a twenty eight hour work week. Lisa, 504 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 2: what do you guys? 505 00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,800 Speaker 9: Okay, we've been talking right about the first ever commercial 506 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 9: space walk, so I want to start there. Okay, because 507 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,000 Speaker 9: the Wall Street Journal had this great look at the 508 00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:13,359 Speaker 9: space suits that you were seeing. 509 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 10: If you were watching on YouTube, you saw it. 510 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 9: They were wearing the SpaceX developed space suits. 511 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 10: They hope will eventually be used on Mars. 512 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:23,119 Speaker 9: This is the first time they've been on they've been 513 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,080 Speaker 9: untested in orbit, so they're trying it out. That They 514 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 9: also had the Crew Dragon. The SpaceX is low Earth 515 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:30,679 Speaker 9: orbit vehicle. 516 00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:31,560 Speaker 10: So between the. 517 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,439 Speaker 9: Spacesuit and the new vehicle, a lot going on with you. 518 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,159 Speaker 4: I'm just noticing the spacesuit on the video that we 519 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 4: were getting looked very cool. It was a kind of 520 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:42,760 Speaker 4: fashionable a little bit, yeah, as opposed to the stuff 521 00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 4: remember from NASA back in the sixties, you know, which 522 00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:48,440 Speaker 4: these big, bulky types of things. These guys could move 523 00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,560 Speaker 4: around a lot easier, it seemed like, and seemed pretty cool. 524 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:52,800 Speaker 10: They could, and you have to check out the pictures 525 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:53,439 Speaker 10: of it on the. 526 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,920 Speaker 2: Natic labs outside Boston. You go out, there's a thing 527 00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,520 Speaker 2: called Natick Labs and that you know, we make about 528 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,639 Speaker 2: Tang and I mean, I understand Tang is the is 529 00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 2: the vitam and sea of the astronauts. But the US 530 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 2: Army Natic Labs were so I'm not saying they did 531 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 2: the spacesuits, but people forget about that, like, Okay, what's 532 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 2: the fabric, what are they going to eat? What if 533 00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:21,359 Speaker 2: they throw up landing on the lunar module? What are 534 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:25,359 Speaker 2: we gonna do in weightlessness? If they and they did, 535 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 2: if they throw up? I mean, all this stuff is 536 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 2: granular and it's the many native labs around the nation. 537 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:33,800 Speaker 10: That's great well, and you don't think about that. 538 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 9: Also, SpaceX keeping the FAA busy, the FA's Commercial Space 539 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:42,320 Speaker 9: Transportation Office. They said that SpaceX is getting the majority 540 00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,960 Speaker 9: of their resources. Eighty percent of the overtime that day log, 541 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,840 Speaker 9: which is hundreds of hours a month, goes to SpaceX. 542 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:50,760 Speaker 9: They say some of the delays you've heard about the starship, 543 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,479 Speaker 9: they've had different delays they say it's because of changes 544 00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,400 Speaker 9: the company made to the scope of its flight plan, 545 00:27:55,520 --> 00:28:00,159 Speaker 9: also ongoing environmental review SpaceX, so it blames them for 546 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:01,159 Speaker 9: the lack of resources. 547 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,439 Speaker 10: That's why they say there have been some delays. But 548 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 10: the FAA made. 549 00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,479 Speaker 4: It clear getting into Newark Airport on a Friday afternoon 550 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,880 Speaker 4: and talking about the FAA SpaceX could take a backseat 551 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 4: to me. 552 00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:11,639 Speaker 5: Okay. 553 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 2: I was sitting there in the emotion less night of 554 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:18,200 Speaker 2: September eleventh, and thanks to everyone, Lisa, you were great. 555 00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,600 Speaker 2: Yesterday I got this really privileged deck that I'm on, 556 00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:26,200 Speaker 2: and there was a seven forty seven Liftanza coving out. 557 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:26,720 Speaker 5: Of Newark, YEP. 558 00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:30,359 Speaker 2: With the sun setting, it was spectacular. Ye, Newark is Newark. 559 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:32,360 Speaker 2: It's like, what did you say once? You said it's 560 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:35,800 Speaker 2: like an aircraft carricter that's right next to the Jersey Turnpike. 561 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:36,680 Speaker 2: What do you got? 562 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:37,639 Speaker 10: Okay. 563 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,560 Speaker 9: So Paul's been talking about the iPhone right, the latest iPhone. 564 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 10: He's going to get it right. 565 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,800 Speaker 4: You can pre order Friday. You can order to the 566 00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:45,640 Speaker 4: Horizon store on Lectionton Avenue, and that's what I was 567 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 4: told to see. 568 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 9: Okay, So he's going there Friday. But some bosses they're 569 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,240 Speaker 9: using low tech gear to show up their power. Things 570 00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:56,720 Speaker 9: like pagers, the brick phone. Those are coming back. 571 00:28:59,480 --> 00:28:59,720 Speaker 5: Jumped. 572 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 10: John Tucker can pull it out. Yes. The reason why 573 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 10: they're going old. 574 00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:06,360 Speaker 9: School is because they say they wanted digital detos. 575 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:06,640 Speaker 10: Right. 576 00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,240 Speaker 9: They don't get emails and things like that on those 577 00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,080 Speaker 9: kind of phones, so it gets them to kind of separate. 578 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:15,920 Speaker 9: It's also this sense of power because you think about it, 579 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,160 Speaker 9: only a big shot can say page me right. 580 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,280 Speaker 10: It's his power trip. They're saying. 581 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,480 Speaker 9: It makes some better leaders because they can be fully 582 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:25,640 Speaker 9: present in meetings instead of being on their phone and 583 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,520 Speaker 9: not kind of paying attention getting disrupted. 584 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:29,640 Speaker 4: We're talking about the hours of junior bankers back in 585 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:31,240 Speaker 4: the day. One of the reasons we had to be 586 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,720 Speaker 4: in the office is there was no technology, Mike Boss. 587 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,520 Speaker 4: They couldn't reach you. They couldn't zip a file to 588 00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 4: you and say upgrade this model. You had to physically 589 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 4: be in the office at your computer. Which, by the way, 590 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,760 Speaker 4: we're new at the time back when I was in there, 591 00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 4: but now with the technology boom, you don't need anything. 592 00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:49,600 Speaker 4: You can be anywhere as we've learned here. 593 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:51,040 Speaker 10: Yes, and they can get you any time. 594 00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:51,280 Speaker 2: Yeah. 595 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:57,880 Speaker 9: Thing NFL opening weekend huge, highest on record. NFL average 596 00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 9: twenty one million viewers per game during its opening week. 597 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,960 Speaker 9: That's a twelve percent increase over last year. So if 598 00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,280 Speaker 9: you break it down, who what network kind of you 599 00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:08,160 Speaker 9: know came out on top. NBC. 600 00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,640 Speaker 10: You had the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Ravens. You 601 00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:13,800 Speaker 10: had the Detroit Lions and the Rams. 602 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 9: They were both pretty close games. So NBC came out 603 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:18,960 Speaker 9: on top. We had second. There was Fox, Tom Brady's 604 00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 9: first game as an analyst. 605 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:21,120 Speaker 2: What did you do? 606 00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, the reviews were mixed at best. 607 00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,000 Speaker 2: Okay, give him a shot. 608 00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 10: I really just started. 609 00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:29,480 Speaker 4: He just started. 610 00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,640 Speaker 2: He came in, he came in for the Patriots. I 611 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,680 Speaker 2: remember the afternoon and when he did his first game 612 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,720 Speaker 2: with the Patriots, he was not mixed as best. It 613 00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,720 Speaker 2: was like, was this guy exa one more quickly? 614 00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:42,000 Speaker 10: Yes? Okay. 615 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 9: So people were asking about Happy the elephant at the 616 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 9: Bronx SiO. Everyone's worried they haven't seen Happy. 617 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:48,320 Speaker 10: He's disappeared. 618 00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 9: You know, I got to end you with a kicker, right, 619 00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:53,880 Speaker 9: So Happy the Bronx who has responded, Happy is fine. 620 00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:54,720 Speaker 10: Happy, he just. 621 00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 9: Doesn't like to come out of its enclosure. Likes to 622 00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:58,920 Speaker 9: stay in the barn and get fed and special treats 623 00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,800 Speaker 9: only comes out when people aren't there. But there were 624 00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:03,840 Speaker 9: a lot of questions about it because there were some 625 00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 9: issues with it, you know, the activists who were saying 626 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,280 Speaker 9: happy shouldn't be and closed, Happy should be out, and the. 627 00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:11,800 Speaker 4: Problem happy to be I mean happy they. 628 00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:13,840 Speaker 9: Or they're saying happy should be out so people can 629 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:18,720 Speaker 9: see her for him, her fifty year old pronounce okay. 630 00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:22,640 Speaker 2: Lisa Matteo with the newspapers, thank you so much. This 631 00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:27,880 Speaker 2: is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, 632 00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:31,680 Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 633 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:36,240 Speaker 2: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 634 00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:39,760 Speaker 2: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 635 00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:43,840 Speaker 2: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 636 00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:47,600 Speaker 2: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 637 00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,560 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 638 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,120 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.