1 00:00:02,080 --> 00:00:04,800 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 2 00:00:04,800 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: top stories in the coming week from our daybreak anchors 3 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:10,000 Speaker 1: all around the world, and straight ahead on the program. 4 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: Good Friday is coming, but will it be a good 5 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: Friday for the March jobs report from the Labor Department. 6 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Busby in New York. I'm callin Headka in London, 7 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:22,159 Speaker 1: where we're looking ahead to present Joe Biden's visit to 8 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Northern Ireland. I'm Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. How much 9 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 1: surprise might be coming in this shuffling of chairs at 10 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 1: the Boja. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Will take a 11 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 1: look at the political ramifications of Donald Trump's indict That's 12 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:40,080 Speaker 1: all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg eleven three, 13 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: on New York, Bloomberg ninety nine one, Washington, DC, Bloomberg 14 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 1: one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, 15 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirius XM one nineteen and around 16 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 1: the world on Bloomberg Radio dot com and via the 17 00:00:54,800 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App. Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby, 18 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 1: and we begin the program with the March jobs report. 19 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 1: It's coming this Friday. Yes, this Friday is a market holiday. 20 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 1: All US stock and bond markets will be closed, but 21 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,760 Speaker 1: the report is coming out anyway. Joining me now with 22 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 1: a sneak peak of what to expect, Bloomberg's Global Economics 23 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 1: and Policy editor Michael McKee. Welcome, Michael. I'll be working 24 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:24,839 Speaker 1: you know, I can. I can ward you that because 25 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 1: we do have the numbers coming out and we are 26 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 1: expecting it to be a reasonably good Friday. If you're 27 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 1: somebody who's employed, jobs created, they're forecasting two hundred and 28 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: forty thousand, So that's that quality. That's what would qualify 29 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 1: tom as progress these days, because we've been in the 30 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 1: fives and threes the last couple of months, so we're 31 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 1: looking for a slowdown and I guess two hundred and 32 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 1: forty thousand would sort of constitute that. But it's definitely 33 00:01:55,800 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 1: not recession territory, at least as far as the economist survey. Yeah, 34 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 1: still strong. I mean, like you said, January over five 35 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: hundred thirty thousand. February was strong, and despite the rash 36 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:10,799 Speaker 1: of layoffs we've seen, especially in the tech sector. And 37 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:13,679 Speaker 1: then is this really unusual that it's still expected to 38 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: be so strong. For mart it is a bit unusual, 39 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 1: but then everything is coming out of this pandemic. We 40 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:23,360 Speaker 1: saw so many people lose their jobs at once during 41 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:26,360 Speaker 1: the pandemic, and then it's been very difficult to get 42 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: everybody fitted back into the places that they were before, 43 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 1: especially the lower income, lower status jobs that people don't 44 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: really want to do. It's been hard for bars and 45 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 1: restaurants to hire waiters and waitresses and bartenders and things 46 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 1: like that, and you know, lawn service people, things like that. 47 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:52,399 Speaker 1: So those service industries are still hiring, still raising wages, 48 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: which kind of puts the onus on the average hourly earnings. 49 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,080 Speaker 1: We'll see if those slow down at all. The forecasts 50 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,359 Speaker 1: for a little bit of an increase on a month 51 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:03,799 Speaker 1: over month basis, but a drop year over a year. 52 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:07,920 Speaker 1: And so the Fed will be watching this closely as 53 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 1: they have with all the jobs reports, because they want 54 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 1: to see how much strength the economy still has. And 55 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 1: you know, you talked about weakness in some services sector, bars, restaurants, hotels, 56 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:22,799 Speaker 1: but where is the strength in the jobs market. It's 57 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 1: been in some places you wouldn't necessarily expect. We have 58 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 1: seen strength in manufacturing still, although that is starting to 59 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 1: fade because now, of course you have manufacturing, people are 60 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 1: not buying goods as many goods. But we've also seen 61 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 1: strength and construction, which has been a surprise because we 62 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 1: know housing is in trouble and builders had been cutting back. 63 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 1: They seem to be moving forward again now. But the 64 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: construction has been strong and retail now, the retail thing 65 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 1: is a little bit tricky, and since this is Bloomberg, 66 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: I can be a little bit nerdy. The seasonal adjustment 67 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 1: factors come into it at the beginning of the year 68 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 1: because normally you hire a lot of people in the 69 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 1: late fall for the holiday shopping period and then you 70 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 1: let them go in January February. But it seems like 71 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 1: it was harder to hire people this year, and there's 72 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 1: labor hoarding going on. Companies don't want to get rid 73 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 1: of people. So seasonal adjustments from making retail sales look 74 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:25,359 Speaker 1: really good too, and that's I think it's surprised to everybody. 75 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 1: The retail sales. I believe in February the biggest gain 76 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 1: was in department stores percentage wise, Yeah, and I don't 77 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,679 Speaker 1: think we'll see that again because that was probably done 78 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:41,880 Speaker 1: by the overall seasonal factor that we didn't get rid 79 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:44,799 Speaker 1: of as many people as we usually do, so it'll 80 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 1: probably be another category. It'd be interesting to see if 81 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 1: it is construction, if that stays strong, because we're going 82 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:52,280 Speaker 1: to start getting into the better weather when you'd think 83 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: construction would pick up. And then of course all the 84 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:58,920 Speaker 1: storms out in California and the tornadoes down south mean 85 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:04,720 Speaker 1: more homebuilding. So we'll see if those categories stay strong. 86 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 1: And let's talk about the wage component, because you brought 87 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 1: up that some of these very hard to find jobs 88 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: as some of the lowest paying ones lawn care and 89 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:18,719 Speaker 1: bars and restaurants, these owners are forced to hike the 90 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:22,720 Speaker 1: wages to attract more people. And is that lifting all boats? 91 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 1: And you know there's that still a problem for the 92 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:29,679 Speaker 1: Fed's role in trying to drive inflation lower by driving 93 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: wages lower. Well, it is a problem for the FED, 94 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:37,720 Speaker 1: and it's basically something they hope will naturally cure itself 95 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 1: as people get more, as more people go to work 96 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: in those categories, and then they don't have to offer 97 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 1: as much money the employers to get people to take 98 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,039 Speaker 1: those jobs. But we have seen a decline in the 99 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 1: labor force and so we don't have as many people 100 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,719 Speaker 1: available to take the jobs. So it's something that the 101 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 1: FED is keeping an eye on. We had the PCE 102 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:06,599 Speaker 1: core rate X Housing out on Friday, and that's the 103 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:10,040 Speaker 1: one that the FED follows because outside of the construction 104 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 1: workers for housing, they're looking at services industry hiring. And 105 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 1: basically that came down significantly to just a three tenths 106 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 1: percent gain for the month of February. So maybe we 107 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 1: still see some more progress with that. Yeah, and it 108 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:30,360 Speaker 1: looks like you vindication for the Fed's plans that hey, 109 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:34,720 Speaker 1: this may be working. Yeah, it may be working. And 110 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 1: I talked to Susan Collins, the bust FED president had 111 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: done Friday, and she basically told us that it is working, 112 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:43,480 Speaker 1: but we have a lot more to go. We have 113 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:46,480 Speaker 1: a lot farther to go. Inflation has fallen, but it's 114 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 1: still double or more the Fed's target, and so they're 115 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 1: going to keep raising rates. She wasn't making any predictions, 116 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: but basically she's set in the past probably one more 117 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 1: quarter point increase and then they want to leave them 118 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:03,839 Speaker 1: there at a high level for the rest of the year. 119 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,919 Speaker 1: And that's not what Wall Street is expecting. No, and 120 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: that next FOMC meeting is just one month from this weekend. Yeah, 121 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:15,480 Speaker 1: it seems like a more compressed time period because we 122 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 1: get just one Job's report, one CPI report between the 123 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 1: last one and this one next one, and that's different 124 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 1: than what we saw before the March meeting because we 125 00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 1: had two of each. So the FED will have a 126 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 1: little bit less data. And of course the jobs report 127 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 1: coming out next Friday is going to be three weeks 128 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 1: ahead of the FED, so it's kind of they're going 129 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 1: to be looking at other indicators as well, trying to 130 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 1: parse out what is actually happening in the economy at 131 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: that time. Gotcha. You know. Another piece of the puzzle 132 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 1: on labor is all the baby boomers. New York Fed 133 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 1: came out with a report just last week on why 134 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 1: there are so many fewer workers out there, and the 135 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 1: reason they've come up with is baby boomers during the 136 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: pandemic just said you know what, I don't want to 137 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 1: get sick, I don't want to travel in I'm done. 138 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: And over two million spots haven't been filled since the pandemic, 139 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 1: and a lot of them are people over sixty five 140 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 1: that just said, hey, I'm done working. Yeah, that was 141 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 1: we were watching a lot of baby boomers retire. We 142 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 1: have been for about ten years and so it's been 143 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: a trend. But then it looks like a lot of 144 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 1: people just got to the pandemic and they said go 145 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:33,440 Speaker 1: home for a while, and people say, well, I'll just 146 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:35,959 Speaker 1: go stay and so that has cut the number of 147 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:40,800 Speaker 1: people available to take jobs. But we've still got so 148 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: many jobs available that it has forced the wage rates up. 149 00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 1: And now the question is do we see more people 150 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 1: start to come back And a lot of people, certainly 151 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:53,560 Speaker 1: just to make ends meet, have to come back to 152 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 1: the labor force. Yeah. And there's another group too that 153 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 1: doesn't get a lot of publicity, but it's the people 154 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 1: with long COVID. There's several hundred thousand estimated who are 155 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 1: out of the labor force because they got long COVID, 156 00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 1: and the hope is that most of them can come back, 157 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:11,839 Speaker 1: but it's going to take time. And then this labor 158 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 1: shortage just exacerbates the inflation problem. So the combination of 159 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:20,959 Speaker 1: the retirees and those who are unable to come back 160 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 1: because of their health has really put the economy a 161 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 1: little bit behind on the inflation front. Among other reasons. Well, Michael, 162 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 1: one last thing I wanted to ask you about is 163 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 1: the data that we're seeing in this March report coming 164 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:36,480 Speaker 1: up on Friday, is from the middle of February. The 165 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:39,640 Speaker 1: middle of March, and right around that time is when 166 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 1: we saw this banking crisis begin to unfold. How do 167 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 1: you think that will affect, if at all, the March report. 168 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 1: But we're really going to see something maybe in the 169 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 1: April report. It's going to be interesting timing because the 170 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 1: FED sends out a survey of bank loan officers and 171 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 1: it is usually for the month of April. It would 172 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 1: be out in the out in the banks right now, 173 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 1: and then they release it the first Monday after the 174 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 1: next month, so May sixth, well May three is the 175 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 1: FED meeting. But I did ask Susan Collins about it, 176 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 1: and she said we would have the FED would have 177 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: the data and they would get a picture of whether 178 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:26,319 Speaker 1: or not we're seeing a significant increase in banks raising 179 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:29,320 Speaker 1: their lending standards and cutting back on credit. That's going 180 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 1: to be an issue. The theory is that banks will 181 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: cut back on credit, but until many had already done 182 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 1: that because the economy was slowing, So until they get 183 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 1: some proof of it, the FED isn't going to know 184 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 1: whether that actually is going to happen. Gotcha, Okay, Michael, 185 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:48,680 Speaker 1: thank you so much. That's Bloomberg Global Economic and Policy 186 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,840 Speaker 1: Editor Michael McKeon coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, the 187 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 1: long goodbye of the outgoing head of the Bank of Japan. 188 00:10:55,320 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg 189 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 1: Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories 190 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 1: for investors in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in 191 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 1: New York. Up later in our program, the US and 192 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 1: Ireland in Focus will tell you why. But first changing 193 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:26,680 Speaker 1: of the guard about to take place at the Bank 194 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 1: of Japan with a long time head of the central 195 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 1: bank stepping down. Bloomberg's Global Economics and Policy editor Kathleen 196 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:35,960 Speaker 1: Hayes has covered it all and has this special look 197 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 1: back at the ups and downs during his tenure. How 198 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: Do he Go? Couroda took over as Governor of the 199 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 1: Bank of Japan in March of twenty thirteen. Two months 200 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:49,559 Speaker 1: before Coroda took over, the boj signed a landmark accord 201 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 1: with the former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to reach two 202 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:57,319 Speaker 1: percent inflation in the shortest time possible. After being sworn in, 203 00:11:57,480 --> 00:11:59,840 Speaker 1: he committed to a two year deadline to reach that 204 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 1: target and introduced his bold strategy called quantitative and Qualitative easing, 205 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: the first step in what soon became known as his 206 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 1: monetary Bazuoka. A year later, Corona fired another shot, the 207 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 1: infamous Halloween surprise, shocking markets as the BOJ nearly doubled 208 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 1: its yearly bond purchased target from fifty to eighty trillion yen. 209 00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: In January of twenty sixteen, the BOJ narrowly voted to 210 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 1: cut its key rate to negative point one percent. The 211 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 1: public backlash was immediate and fierce. Eight months later, the 212 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 1: BOJA adopted its most innovative step of all yield curve control, 213 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 1: tying the ten year Japanese government bond yield to zero 214 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 1: and becoming the first central bank in the world to 215 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 1: take this radical monetary step to spur inflation. By the 216 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 1: time Coroda was reappointed, inflation was above zero, but it 217 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 1: didn't reach the two percent target. Coroda then fine tuned 218 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 1: YCC by allowing it to move around double the rate 219 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: of ten basis points on either side of zero. In 220 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 1: early twenty two twenty one, concerns were growing after the 221 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 1: BOJ became the biggest single holder of Japanese stocks by 222 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 1: September twenty twenty two. A weekending in the end helped 223 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 1: boost the boj's key inflation metric, reaching four percent by 224 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 1: the end of the year. Three months later, Krota Rock 225 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: markets once again with a surprising decision to widen the 226 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 1: ten year yield band, doubling it to point five percent 227 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 1: by twenty twenty three. Investors are already betting some of 228 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 1: his ultra loose policies will be dismantled before long. How 229 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,679 Speaker 1: history will judge Corodonomics is still uncertain as a new 230 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:36,559 Speaker 1: team prepares to take charge of the BOJ. Bloomberg's Kathleen 231 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:40,320 Speaker 1: Hayes reporting and for more on Coroda's legacy and what 232 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 1: happens next which Japan's monetary policy, we go to Hong 233 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:48,840 Speaker 1: Kong and Bloomberg Daybreak Asia host Brian Curtis Tom Kathleen 234 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 1: Hayes joins us. Now, so a change at the top 235 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 1: at the BOJ, long awaited, sometimes feared, and perhaps spring 236 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 1: loaded for a surprise. Kathleen to tease of that from 237 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: the deputy governor at Shinichi Uchida, who's new in the post, 238 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 1: and he said, when the time comes for the bank 239 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:10,840 Speaker 1: to adjust yield curve control, it may have to be 240 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 1: a surprise that's going to make the run up to 241 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:16,559 Speaker 1: the next meeting quite exciting. Well, he did say that 242 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 1: it may very well be a surprise. I think what 243 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:22,960 Speaker 1: he's saying is, we're not necessarily going to signal this now. 244 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 1: In my estimation, to have them do something at the 245 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 1: very feast meeting would be a surprise. They don't have 246 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: to do this today. In fact, you notice that bond 247 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:38,360 Speaker 1: yields have settled down more. You know, the yend is 248 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 1: strengthened again. It doesn't seem like the market's putting a 249 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 1: lot of pressure on the boj right now. And if 250 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: they're not going to surprise, here's what kind of surprising 251 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 1: to meet? What kind of language will where they use 252 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:52,840 Speaker 1: in his press conference, because that's where seems to me 253 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 1: they could start opening the door, opening the door a 254 00:14:56,640 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 1: little bit wider. But I would find it very I'd 255 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:02,720 Speaker 1: love it if they came in at the first meeting 256 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 1: and did something significant on yield curve control. In our 257 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 1: piece we talk about how there might be a massive 258 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 1: bond sell off if this was tipped ahead of time. 259 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 1: Might there still be a bond sell off once it 260 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 1: gets announced. Absolutely, And I think this terrific piece from 261 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 1: Ruth Carson, Masaki Kondo and Michael McKenzie is exactly what 262 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:28,440 Speaker 1: they say that whether you surprise or not, it's going 263 00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: to be a major shift. When the Japanese bond holders 264 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 1: of overseas bonds, what are their three point for trillion 265 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 1: dollars fire host was unleashed on the investment world is 266 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: how they start their piece. It's going to create waves. 267 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 1: Look what's happened. You know, a lot of the run 268 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 1: up to the banking crisis that's going on in the 269 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 1: US that fed into Europe now was triggered by the 270 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 1: fact that aggressive rate hikes by the FED, a big 271 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 1: balance sheet. All of that put the bond market put 272 00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 1: investors in a position where when something started shifting, even 273 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 1: if it wasn't a surprise, it ended up given a 274 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 1: couple of incidental incidences like the SVB meltdown, that is 275 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: still riley roiling bond markets. It's such an interesting outlook 276 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 1: at the moment because inflation is actually above target, but 277 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 1: the boj both of the outgoing governor and the incoming governor, 278 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 1: are still saying that the Bank of Japan is trying 279 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 1: to get inflation up to two percent, up to the 280 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 1: target of two percent. You want to try to explain 281 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 1: the nuances of that to the audience. Up to two 282 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: percent sustainably. Inflation got up to just even over four 283 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 1: percent because of fresh food prices, energy prices, good Corona 284 00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 1: and the team that was in place, the shift still 285 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:44,040 Speaker 1: being made. That's been their position. It's going to start 286 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 1: coming down, and in fact the forecast. One big thing 287 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: that's going to happen at the first meeting for a 288 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 1: way that is that they're going to revise their outlook 289 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 1: for the economy. Inflation. At the last time they revised it, 290 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:57,560 Speaker 1: it was at one point nine for this year and 291 00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:00,479 Speaker 1: then below that for next year. That would be significant 292 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 1: that they suggest they see it higher. But that's the position. 293 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 1: And they're even with wages in the shunto spring wage 294 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:10,399 Speaker 1: negotiations having come in fairly good, maybe even better than 295 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:13,359 Speaker 1: previous years, they still don't seem to be convinced the 296 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:15,920 Speaker 1: old team that it's going to stay that way. That's 297 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 1: another thing we'll get from the new team led by Ahuada. Obviously, 298 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:22,679 Speaker 1: it's it's a lot easier to get inflation up if 299 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: you have strong growth. What's happening on the growth front 300 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 1: at the moment. I think there are some concerns about growth, 301 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:32,439 Speaker 1: and particularly with the prospect of a global recession. You know, 302 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 1: the US is surely going to get one, according to 303 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:39,680 Speaker 1: a lot of FED watchers and even some beneficials, that 304 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:42,680 Speaker 1: it's maybe not inevitable, but likely to have a recession. 305 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 1: What does that mean for the rest of the world. 306 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,440 Speaker 1: Japan's an exporting nation, so I think that's a concern too. 307 00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 1: So we mentioned that kazu Uada comes in. He's set 308 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 1: to take the helm on April ninth. What's the opening 309 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: message that we might get from him. The opening message 310 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:03,800 Speaker 1: will surely be that they are watching the data that 311 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:07,879 Speaker 1: they can see where it is now that the path 312 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 1: to normalization lies ahead. The question is when normalization will 313 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,920 Speaker 1: clearly be needed, when it will need to start, And 314 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 1: that's the probably the bottom line. You won't say, well, 315 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 1: we don't know. It's pretty clear they're going to normalize, 316 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 1: But again that is the question. Are they at a 317 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 1: point where they are convinced that inflation is going to 318 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:35,159 Speaker 1: stay high and above two percent and the economy is 319 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 1: going to hold in right and not start pulling back. 320 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 1: And when the conditions of normalization are met, they will 321 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 1: surely need to change yeeld curve control. That's what the 322 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,920 Speaker 1: Deputy governor said that he said they will surely have 323 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 1: to do it, but they certain conditions have to be met. 324 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 1: If we take a step back and look at the 325 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:55,640 Speaker 1: coordination between the fiscal authorities and the monetary authorities, how 326 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 1: do they connect. The ruling Democratic Party and a lot 327 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:02,880 Speaker 1: of those, maybe even Jority, are still on the albonomics 328 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:06,879 Speaker 1: side right where you keep rates low. And one of 329 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 1: the reasons they want to keep rates low is they've 330 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,880 Speaker 1: got a big deficit to fund and they're going to 331 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,200 Speaker 1: be bringing in a much larger defense budget this year 332 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,680 Speaker 1: and they don't want to raise taxes. So I think 333 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,919 Speaker 1: that's one of the push polls right now that's going 334 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 1: to have to be dealt with. Because challenge at the 335 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:25,240 Speaker 1: moment communication what pops into my head is out what 336 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 1: everybody has said going into this, every person who's been 337 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 1: on the BOJ or close to the BOJ, that communication 338 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 1: is going to be very critical. They've got to maintain credibility, 339 00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:39,400 Speaker 1: they've got to guide the markets. They can't overpromise, and 340 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 1: they have to be what the market is going to want. 341 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 1: Don't you Wouldn't you agree, brand because you watch this 342 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: so closely too. They want to get a sense of 343 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 1: the path, right, They want to get a sense of 344 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 1: the inclination. So how do you give them that without 345 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:56,160 Speaker 1: over promising or saying so much that makes the markets impatient. 346 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 1: That's going to be difficult. Kathleen, thanks so much for 347 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 1: joining us. Always a pleasure, Kathleen Hayes, Bloomberg Global Policy 348 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:06,160 Speaker 1: and Economy Editor. I'm Brian Curtis. You can catch Doug 349 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:10,119 Speaker 1: Chrisner and me each weekday here for Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, 350 00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,479 Speaker 1: beginning at six am in Hong Kong and six pm 351 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 1: on Wall Street. Tom. Thank you, Brian, And coming up 352 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, President Biden eyes trips to the 353 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 1: Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland Burkey Anniversary. I'm Sam Buzzberg. 354 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:35,879 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker 355 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:39,680 Speaker 1: Studio in New York. Bloomberg eleven three oh to Washington, DC, 356 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:43,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg ninety nine one to Boston, Bloomberg one oh six 357 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:46,640 Speaker 1: one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to the country, 358 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 1: Sirius XM Channel one nineteen to London DAB digital radio, 359 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 1: and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg 360 00:20:54,280 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 1: Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. I'm Tom 361 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:06,679 Speaker 1: Busby in New York with your global look ahead at 362 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:09,440 Speaker 1: the top stories for investors in the coming week. Coming 363 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 1: up on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, or look ahead to what's 364 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:15,479 Speaker 1: happening in Washington. But First President Joe Biden says he 365 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,680 Speaker 1: intends to travel to the Republic of Ireland and Northern 366 00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 1: Ireland to help mark twenty five years since the signing 367 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 1: of the Good Friday Peace Agreement for more or Letta 368 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:29,159 Speaker 1: to London and bringing Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline Hepger Tom. 369 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,840 Speaker 1: The eleventh of April is the anniversary of the US 370 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 1: broker deal that largely brought to an end decades of violence, 371 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,439 Speaker 1: the so called Troubles in Northern Ireland. Johnny May now 372 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's Dublin bureau chief. Morwena Connie Mowena, thanks so 373 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 1: much for being with us. This is a very significant 374 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:50,440 Speaker 1: anniversary of the nineteen ninety eight peace deal. Isn't it absolutely? 375 00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 1: I mean it marks twenty five years, so a quarter 376 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 1: of a century of essentially peace in Northern Ireland, following 377 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: a period of three decades known as the Troubles, which 378 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 1: were blighted by sectarian violence and you know, really damaged 379 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 1: the economy as well as of course costing thousands of 380 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:16,960 Speaker 1: lives in Northern Ireland. So how significant is it that 381 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 1: President Biden will come to visit both the Republic of 382 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 1: Ireland and Northern Ireland. Yeah, it is something that people 383 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 1: are very excited about the prospect of. Of course, President Clinton, 384 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 1: the US president in nineteen ninety eight, was a big 385 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:38,440 Speaker 1: part of the original peace deal, so it is a 386 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 1: significant occasion for him to be coming to market, particularly 387 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,960 Speaker 1: of course as we have seen so much turmoil in 388 00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:56,160 Speaker 1: Northern Ireland again over the Protocol and the Brexit deal. Yeah, 389 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 1: the UK and the European Union have now signed off 390 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,919 Speaker 1: on their new Brexit deal that deals with the trade 391 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 1: relationship between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK 392 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:11,240 Speaker 1: and Northern Ireland and Europe. But that was not sort 393 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 1: of without its difficulties, and yeah, there have been quite 394 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:20,200 Speaker 1: a lot of concerns around that. In fact, the Assembly 395 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:24,639 Speaker 1: is still not sitting despite that agreement. No, indeed it isn't. 396 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 1: And so whilst the UK Government have signed off on 397 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,119 Speaker 1: what's known as the Windsor Framework, which was meant to 398 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 1: be a way to work around some of the issues 399 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:37,640 Speaker 1: in Northern Ireland, the Democratic Unionist Party, which is one 400 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 1: of the two parties which required for the current power 401 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 1: sharing assembly at Stormont, they have not accepted that framework 402 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:49,879 Speaker 1: and they are still refusing to participate in the power 403 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:53,560 Speaker 1: sharing Assembly for Northern Ireland, meaning that there is no 404 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 1: devolved government there. And at the moment, you know, they 405 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 1: despite what the UK Government have said about this agreement, 406 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 1: you know, they are adamant that it doesn't meet their demands. 407 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:10,360 Speaker 1: There doesn't seem to be any movement on that from 408 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 1: them and other unionist parties a sort of today, you know, 409 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:18,359 Speaker 1: the Orange Order have said that they absolutely you know, 410 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:22,439 Speaker 1: do not think that their storremants should be sitting until 411 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,159 Speaker 1: their concerns about what Brexit means in the nor of 412 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 1: An Ireland are resolved. Yeah, absolutely so. Is there a 413 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 1: chance of reconciliation then, you know, you mentioned the objections 414 00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 1: there of some parts of the community, and yet of 415 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:41,439 Speaker 1: course everybody's also aware that without devolved government, you know, 416 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 1: matters are very difficult for Northern Ireland in terms of 417 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:52,000 Speaker 1: self governance. Absolutely. I mean, you know, there's a lot 418 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:55,199 Speaker 1: of discontent at the moment because, as he said, we 419 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,600 Speaker 1: don't have them dealing with issues day to day issues, 420 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 1: things like setting budgets, things like helping with the cost 421 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,439 Speaker 1: of living. You know, they are at the mercy of 422 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 1: Westminster deciding to try and passing through, but essentially little 423 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,919 Speaker 1: is being done and so other parties are extremely frustrated 424 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 1: about that. But if the moment, the way the constitution 425 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,359 Speaker 1: works is that as the second biggest party and the 426 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:25,360 Speaker 1: biggest unionist party, the Democratic Unionists do need to participate. 427 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:29,200 Speaker 1: You know, you can't. You can't exclude them. So there 428 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:33,400 Speaker 1: doesn't seem to be much hope for anything happening anytime soon. 429 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 1: That said, other parties such as the Alliance Party, which 430 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:40,200 Speaker 1: is the third biggest party, I spoke to them last week. 431 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:42,480 Speaker 1: You know, they said that they would go back in tomorrow, 432 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,159 Speaker 1: you know, if they could. Despite the fact that you 433 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,120 Speaker 1: know a lot of people would be calling for there 434 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 1: to be some sort of discussion about how to prevent 435 00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:56,679 Speaker 1: this situation occurring again. I think most most people who 436 00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 1: are trying to work to represent communities there do see 437 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,120 Speaker 1: that some government is better than none and do want 438 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 1: to get on with it as soon as possible. And 439 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 1: yet the backdrop to all of this is also a 440 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,200 Speaker 1: very difficult because the terror threat has been raised also 441 00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,760 Speaker 1: in relation to Northern Ireland. Yes, so that happened yesterday 442 00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,719 Speaker 1: from the UK government. There have been a few incidents 443 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:20,880 Speaker 1: in recent months. We did see the shooting in an 444 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:26,639 Speaker 1: off duty police officer. There has been some disquiet. I 445 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 1: think that particular incident was attributed to the Real IRA, 446 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 1: which is seen as a sort of fringe of the 447 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:43,199 Speaker 1: original Irish Republican Army on the Republican side. However, this 448 00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:47,640 Speaker 1: hasn't been wide scale violence, and it isn't specified exactly 449 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:51,200 Speaker 1: what the what the terror threat relates to m but 450 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 1: it was obviously something of concern. It hasn't been it 451 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,960 Speaker 1: was lowered I think in in the early twenty twenties, 452 00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,800 Speaker 1: So you know, this isn't something thing that anybody wants 453 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 1: to see, especially ahead of a US presidential visit. Yeah. Absolutely, 454 00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:11,400 Speaker 1: And it's also should be underlined the importance of Joe 455 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:15,399 Speaker 1: Biden's stance here. The relationship between Joe Biden and the 456 00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:19,440 Speaker 1: UK Prime Ministerrihi Sunac. You know, it's really quite pivotal. 457 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,040 Speaker 1: So I suppose I want to go back to the 458 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:25,160 Speaker 1: idea of the importance the ramifications of Biden actually visiting, 459 00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:29,399 Speaker 1: spending time firstly, you know, in Northern Ireland, then in 460 00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:33,760 Speaker 1: the Republic. But on that idea of Biden's political role 461 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:38,960 Speaker 1: even now to do with Northern Ireland, the Peace Agreement 462 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 1: and the UK's Brexit, Yes, I mean, you know, he's seen. 463 00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:47,119 Speaker 1: The US has scene as being generally very popular in 464 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,040 Speaker 1: Ireland and Northern Ireland. It is also seen as being 465 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,919 Speaker 1: a sort of unifying force, so to speak, because it 466 00:27:53,040 --> 00:28:01,160 Speaker 1: isn't bound up with these historical alliances and particularly within 467 00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:05,119 Speaker 1: Northern Ireland the sense of whether you're British or Irish. 468 00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:09,520 Speaker 1: So it is incredibly important. It is a very critical time. 469 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,480 Speaker 1: That had been speculation this storm wasn't sitting, he wouldn't come, 470 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,640 Speaker 1: but he does seem to be adamant that he does. 471 00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,399 Speaker 1: He does want to come, you know, he said that 472 00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:22,439 Speaker 1: since the terrorist was raised, it's you know, it's an 473 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:28,439 Speaker 1: incredibly significant moment for him to be coming, and I 474 00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:34,480 Speaker 1: think overwhelming the people are determined to celebrate twenty five 475 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:38,480 Speaker 1: years of the Good Friday Agreement and of relative peace 476 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:46,040 Speaker 1: rather than focusing on the continuing divisions and disputes. And 477 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 1: then Biden, who has Irish heritage himself, is also going 478 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:57,959 Speaker 1: to be visiting Ireland and around the fiftieth anniversary of 479 00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 1: when President John F. Kennedy visitors Ireland back in nineteen 480 00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:05,560 Speaker 1: sixty three, so you've got another anniversary there, so very 481 00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:09,600 Speaker 1: very symbolic days. So we are looking at the next 482 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,600 Speaker 1: few weeks and that is something which I think the state, 483 00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,840 Speaker 1: you know, welcomes very much. It abous you say it 484 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 1: is a historic moment in terms of the first presidential 485 00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 1: visit or the fifty years ago presidential visitor. When one 486 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 1: other bit of information that we have is that the 487 00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 1: Clintons may also visit. Yes, so the Clintons will be 488 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,160 Speaker 1: taking part in an event that's being held by Queen's 489 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:41,200 Speaker 1: University Belfast the week after the anniversary of the agreement. 490 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:46,719 Speaker 1: And of course that's hugely significant because Bell Clinton President 491 00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:49,480 Speaker 1: Bill Clinton was the president who was involved with the 492 00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:54,080 Speaker 1: signing and Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State of the 493 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:59,080 Speaker 1: United States, I believe has connections to Queens University Belfast 494 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:04,320 Speaker 1: as well, so that's that's his hugely significant presence to 495 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:09,280 Speaker 1: be there at the event. Thanks to Mowena Coniem, Bloomberg's 496 00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:13,320 Speaker 1: Dublin bureau chief, for joining me. So we await then 497 00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 1: the arrival of the US President Joe Biden to Northern 498 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:21,320 Speaker 1: Ireland and Ireland at a very significant moment, significant anniversary 499 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,000 Speaker 1: for the Island of Ireland. I'm Carolin Hepge here in London. 500 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 1: You can catch us every weekday morning Probablio Bag Daybreak 501 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 1: here at beginning at six am in London. That's one 502 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:32,960 Speaker 1: am on Wall Street. Tom, Thank you, Caroline, and coming 503 00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,960 Speaker 1: up here on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, shaping up to be 504 00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:39,400 Speaker 1: a busy week ahead in the nation's capital. I'm Tom Buzby. 505 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:47,280 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global 506 00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 1: look ahead at the top stories for investors in the 507 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:52,760 Speaker 1: coming week. I'm Tom Busby. In New York. Donald Trump 508 00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:55,040 Speaker 1: will be arraigned in the criminal case against him on 509 00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:59,080 Speaker 1: Tuesday afternoon following his indictment on Thursday. Sources tell Bloomberg 510 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,360 Speaker 1: that the former president will hear the charges brought by 511 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,600 Speaker 1: Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and will enter a plea 512 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,000 Speaker 1: of not guilty at a hearing at the New York 513 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,960 Speaker 1: State Supreme Court House. For what we can expect, let's 514 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,720 Speaker 1: head down to Washington now and hear from Bloomberg Washington 515 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:16,800 Speaker 1: correspondent Joe Matthew Tom. There are two sides to this issue, 516 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,280 Speaker 1: political and legal, and so we put together a panel 517 00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,480 Speaker 1: to cover both. I'm joined now by Bloomberg News politics 518 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,520 Speaker 1: reporter Mike Dorning and Washington and June Grosso, host of 519 00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Law with Us from New York. Junior up, first, 520 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,600 Speaker 1: what are you watching for on Tuesday? I think that 521 00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:35,240 Speaker 1: you have to remember that Alvin Bragg doesn't want to 522 00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,560 Speaker 1: lose this case. He doesn't want to be the first 523 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,000 Speaker 1: person who prosecuted a former president and then the first 524 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,480 Speaker 1: person who lost that prosecution. So and he's been He's 525 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:48,480 Speaker 1: a very careful person, and I think that he would 526 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,840 Speaker 1: not bring this case unless he was sure that he 527 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,560 Speaker 1: could prove it to a jury beyond a reasonable doubt. 528 00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,280 Speaker 1: Mike Dorning, let's talk politics for a moment, because there 529 00:31:57,640 --> 00:31:59,640 Speaker 1: is a belief that this will actually help Donald Trump 530 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:03,720 Speaker 1: in the term, maybe help him secure the nomination. Of course, 531 00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:05,680 Speaker 1: he's leading that race right now. But does this do 532 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:10,520 Speaker 1: anything other than galvanize the existing magabase. It definitely helps 533 00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,800 Speaker 1: him in the short term, and it helps not only 534 00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:16,480 Speaker 1: galvanize his magabase around him, but it makes it harder 535 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:22,480 Speaker 1: for these lesser known primary candidates his rivals to differentiate himself. 536 00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:25,800 Speaker 1: It's harder for them to attack Trump now that it 537 00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 1: was easy before, but it's super hard now. And He's 538 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 1: just going to suck up all the political oxygen in 539 00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,880 Speaker 1: these coming months with this case, and so that just 540 00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:39,520 Speaker 1: makes it harder for them to create their own identities 541 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:44,400 Speaker 1: that sell themselves to those voters as distinct winners. But 542 00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:47,480 Speaker 1: over the long term, I don't think it really does help. 543 00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,800 Speaker 1: It is that because they have to kind of support him. 544 00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,400 Speaker 1: Right now, we saw just about every Republican, never mind 545 00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 1: every Republican in the race or perspectively in the race 546 00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:58,240 Speaker 1: come out to say that this was a horrible moment 547 00:32:58,240 --> 00:32:59,959 Speaker 1: in a witch hunt. Yeah, I think most of them 548 00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:02,400 Speaker 1: feel like they have to support him because a large 549 00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 1: part of the Republican Party is super fans of Trump, 550 00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,640 Speaker 1: and those people are the people who are most likely 551 00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 1: to be engaged in primaries, and especially most likely to 552 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:18,080 Speaker 1: be engaged politically in this phase. Of the primary process. 553 00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 1: So you're talking about the most dedicated, strongest Republicans that 554 00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:25,400 Speaker 1: matter right now, and those people are really going to 555 00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:30,120 Speaker 1: be full on Trump supporters. And you can see that 556 00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:33,120 Speaker 1: in the political reaction in Congress. You have all the 557 00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,720 Speaker 1: House members who have smaller districts, they're all coming out 558 00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:41,040 Speaker 1: behind them. Most the Senators, particularly the leaders, are being 559 00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:44,360 Speaker 1: quiet and trying to stay out of it. Republicans are 560 00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:48,000 Speaker 1: not fans of Alvin Bragg June and I don't need 561 00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:50,959 Speaker 1: to tell you that, but we keep hearing the George 562 00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:54,960 Speaker 1: Soros trope every time his name comes up. But also 563 00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 1: you know, an effort to get him to provide materials 564 00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:01,560 Speaker 1: from the investigation of three chairs in the Republican Ledhouse 565 00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,120 Speaker 1: have asked for here and they can keep doing that back. 566 00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,600 Speaker 1: Of course, he's not going to thank keep asking well. 567 00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:09,960 Speaker 1: They also remind us that he was running on this 568 00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:12,520 Speaker 1: from the beginning. Put that in context for our listeners. 569 00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,360 Speaker 1: How true is that? See, as I remember his campaign, 570 00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,160 Speaker 1: it wasn't focused on Trump at all. In fact, when 571 00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:22,080 Speaker 1: he was asked that question, he'd say, that's something I 572 00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,120 Speaker 1: may have to consider in the future, so I can't 573 00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:27,640 Speaker 1: speak about it now. When he was part of the 574 00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:31,600 Speaker 1: state Attorney General's office. He did, he did lead or 575 00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,839 Speaker 1: pursue a case against Trump, you a civil case at 576 00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,759 Speaker 1: that point, But I don't remember his campaign at all 577 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,399 Speaker 1: being based on that. I mean, he was running on 578 00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,719 Speaker 1: things like the bail bonds and things like that, and 579 00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:48,839 Speaker 1: having a more open prosecution in prosecutor's office, more open 580 00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:52,239 Speaker 1: to lowering the charges against certain people. I mean, he 581 00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,600 Speaker 1: didn't run on Trump at all, and he Thanks to 582 00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:58,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Law host June Grosso and Bloomberg political reporter Mike Dorning, 583 00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,879 Speaker 1: a lot to watch in the coming week. Tom, all right, 584 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:05,120 Speaker 1: thank you, Joe Bloomberg. Sound on to host Joe Matthew, 585 00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:08,480 Speaker 1: reporting from our Bloomberg ninety nine newsroom in Washington, and 586 00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:11,120 Speaker 1: you can hear sound on daily from one to three 587 00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:15,000 Speaker 1: pm Wall Street Time right here on Bloomberg Radio. That 588 00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,719 Speaker 1: does it for this edition of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join 589 00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,200 Speaker 1: us again Monday morning at five am Wall Street Time 590 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,799 Speaker 1: for the latest on markets overseas and the news you 591 00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:26,200 Speaker 1: need to start your day. I'm Tom Buzzbye. Stay with us. 592 00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:29,600 Speaker 1: Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now.