WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 1, 2025 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.600 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.239 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:37.320 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Binky Shadow of Deutsche 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:40.400 Bank writing, our base case remains for a significant rally 0:00:40.640 --> 0:00:43.880 on a credible relent on trade policies, with a target 0:00:44.159 --> 0:00:46.920 of sixty one to fifty by year end. Thinking, good morning, 0:00:46.920 --> 0:00:49.000 good to see us, sir. Sixty one to fifty the 0:00:49.040 --> 0:00:51.199 new target. It's down from seven K. Let's deal with 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:54.480 the language. There a credible relent on trade policy? What 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:55.280 does that mean to you? 0:00:55.680 --> 0:00:59.040 So you know, it's meant to capture an idea, and 0:00:59.240 --> 0:01:02.160 it's about convincing the market that you're sort of done 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:07.440 with the trade policy issue, that there is a huge 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:11.119 amount of uncertainty about the different ways that that can 0:01:11.200 --> 0:01:13.480 be done. And at the end of the day, given 0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:15.679 where we are, you know, I expect it will be 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:18.640 kind of mushy. I don't have a better word than that. 0:01:19.760 --> 0:01:23.440 So some trade deals, perhaps some lowering the big question 0:01:23.520 --> 0:01:28.280 mark about ten you know, the ten percent uniform tariff, 0:01:28.280 --> 0:01:32.080 because by the uniform tariff that we have put on ourselves, 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:36.800 we've weren't us growth more than we are hurting anyone else. 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:38.560 At least to ask the question where the pressure would 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:40.880 come from. Where do you see the pressure coming from? 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:42.360 What drives that credible relent? 0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:44.920 I think at the end of the day, it's the 0:01:44.959 --> 0:01:45.440 same thing. 0:01:45.560 --> 0:01:48.960 So when you think about presidential elections, you know, we've 0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:50.880 all heard it's about the economy. 0:01:50.960 --> 0:01:53.040 Stupid in the sense that other things. 0:01:52.840 --> 0:01:57.240 Matter, but it's mostly about the economy. And so I 0:01:57.240 --> 0:02:01.880 would argue it's presidential job approval ratings. And because you know, 0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:04.360 if you think about if the presidential election is about 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:07.440 the economy, and then you ask people, you know, where 0:02:07.480 --> 0:02:09.840 do we ask people how do they feel about the economy? 0:02:09.840 --> 0:02:14.760 It's consumer confidence. So the typical pattern is new presidents 0:02:14.800 --> 0:02:20.160 start with the hefty sort of goodwill or a honeymoon 0:02:20.200 --> 0:02:24.000 period of high improver ratings. The honeymoon then tends to 0:02:24.040 --> 0:02:26.400 wear down, and the question is where do we land. 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:27.400 We land at. 0:02:27.360 --> 0:02:31.240 Levels that are basically, you know, dictated by consumer confidence. 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:35.840 I would argue happened the last two administrations, and so 0:02:36.240 --> 0:02:37.120 you know, we are. 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:39.040 Midway in that process. 0:02:39.080 --> 0:02:42.360 We started up here, we've been coming down and the 0:02:42.400 --> 0:02:46.920 trajectory right now and I'm just remind that current consumer 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:49.959 confidence levels, you know, suggests that you might get down 0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:51.160 to thirty percent. 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:54.160 And so I think there will be a reaction long before. 0:02:54.280 --> 0:02:57.000 Yeah, there's some pretty negative soft data that have been 0:02:57.040 --> 0:02:59.240 coming out. You talk with us when you head is 0:02:59.240 --> 0:03:02.160 still a seventh thousand and reading seven thousand target on 0:03:02.240 --> 0:03:04.360 the S and P five hundred, saying it was a 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:07.360 matter of time and if this uncertainty didn't get resolved, 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:09.280 you would have to bring your forecast down, which is 0:03:09.320 --> 0:03:10.280 part of the reason why. 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:11.399 You did bring your forecast down. 0:03:12.080 --> 0:03:14.560 Now there is a question of how much longer can 0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:17.080 this go on before you bring it down again, Before 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:19.360 you cannot put the toothpaste back in the tube, you 0:03:19.360 --> 0:03:21.320 cannot put the gen back in the bottle. Pick your 0:03:21.360 --> 0:03:23.840 potential saying how much are you looking at that? 0:03:25.000 --> 0:03:25.480 Very much? 0:03:25.520 --> 0:03:27.760 I mean I think that, you know, the risk is 0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:30.520 that the relent that we were talking about comes basically 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:33.600 too late and the noninearities of for session kick in. 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:35.880 I think one has to be honest. 0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:40.000 Which is that it's just very difficult to gauge what 0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:42.360 the impact of the tariffs is going to be. And 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:45.160 by that I mean I think they're clearly negative for 0:03:45.280 --> 0:03:49.000 US growth. They're very negative for US earnings. Precisely how 0:03:49.080 --> 0:03:54.320 much is the question? I mean, on a twelve month basis, 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:58.120 you know, we calculate that the impact would be fifty 0:03:58.200 --> 0:04:02.560 six dollars p five hundred EPs. And just to put 0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:05.680 that number in perspective, you know, last year we had 0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:09.320 two d and fifty dollars of earning. So if you're 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:13.560 talking about fifty six dollars hit, that's a very large number. 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:19.640 It's a very large number by any standards. And so yes, 0:04:19.720 --> 0:04:22.440 the nonlinearities of recession can kick in and the relent 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:26.120 might come too late. But you know, then you have 0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:28.320 to think about basically, Okay, so if you're going to 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:32.080 go down, maybe we have a recession, you know, getting 0:04:32.120 --> 0:04:35.360 a recovery from a supply side recession is you know, 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:40.320 doesn't fit a typical playbook. So it's something that will 0:04:40.320 --> 0:04:43.640 have to be you know, seen and work out. 0:04:43.720 --> 0:04:44.800 Basically in the. 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:47.440 Sense that big tech is going to lead this charge. 0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:50.440 That is essentially what we have already seen from both 0:04:50.880 --> 0:04:54.080 Meta and Microsoft as well as Alphabet last week, that 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:56.320 there's sort of a resurgence in faith in US tech 0:04:56.360 --> 0:04:58.440 that can bolster some of the pain that you might 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:00.720 see elsewhere from the likes of McDonald. 0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:02.320 Or GM or some of the other companies that are 0:05:02.360 --> 0:05:02.720 more hit. 0:05:03.040 --> 0:05:06.200 Yeah, what I would say is, you know, earnings are 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:10.920 basically saying they're hanging in right now, and earnings are fine. 0:05:11.080 --> 0:05:14.320 But again this is about you know, this about yesterday, 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:18.160 not about tomorrow, and the question is what happens tomorrow. 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:23.279 So you know, our take is that earning's growth for 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:27.200 the first quarter currently, you know, looks like it's coming 0:05:27.240 --> 0:05:32.160 in around ten percent year and year. That could drop 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:34.800 to basically zero in the second quarter that we are 0:05:34.839 --> 0:05:39.440 in and then basically turn negative on the baseline view 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:41.680 that the get out on s tariffs all come into 0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:46.080 effect and stay. I mean, it's just you know, if 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:49.040 you think about the numbers, it's just you know, horrendous. 0:05:49.760 --> 0:05:52.360 Think you talk about this relent, what's the level, what's 0:05:52.360 --> 0:05:54.560 the destination you think we're going to get to in 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:55.600 a base case scenario. 0:05:57.400 --> 0:05:59.320 I don't know, it's the honest answer. 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:03.560 I think it's all getting worked out dynamically, and so 0:06:03.720 --> 0:06:05.640 the circumstances and what happens. 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:07.960 So it's data dependent to use a bad term. 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:11.000 So do you think it's political? 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:14.240 Question of yeah, I think it's political. 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:16.920 So basically they have to November third of twenty twenty six. 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:21.919 You know, the midterm elections start a lot earlier, and 0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:24.480 I would argue, you know, the clear and present danger 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:28.719 is to approve ratings they have, you know, sort of 0:06:28.760 --> 0:06:31.839 predictable consequences on your ability to cover. 0:06:31.920 --> 0:06:33.840 And so we shall. 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:35.599 See, Binky, we shall see. It's going to get an 0:06:35.680 --> 0:06:38.279 update from you. Thank you, sir, appreciate it. Binky Chant 0:06:38.279 --> 0:06:50.479 of the Deutsche Bank on the equity market, Brank under 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:52.320 a stafer with a surround of table branc and morning's 0:06:52.880 --> 0:06:54.520 a little bit later this morning, we'll catch up with 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:56.400 Binki Chanda, a Deutsche Bank and this is his call 0:06:56.480 --> 0:06:58.880 sixty one fifty on the SMP. He says that's going 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:01.280 to be driven by a credible then on tariffs, and 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:04.800 that will be shaped by damaged polls. Is this president 0:07:05.040 --> 0:07:06.039 driven by Poellink? 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:06.400 No. 0:07:06.480 --> 0:07:09.479 I think he's driven by legacy. I think that's what 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:11.800 drives everything with the White House right now. This is 0:07:11.840 --> 0:07:15.000 the second term. There will be no third term, despite 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:16.560 the you know, the jokes about it. 0:07:17.120 --> 0:07:20.200 But he's been talking. Trump has been talking about. 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:24.160 Tariffs and a restructured US economy since the nineteen eighties. 0:07:24.440 --> 0:07:27.240 This is it for him. This is a one chance 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:30.640 to get this done. So the idea that there's going 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:33.560 to be this massive pullback despite the pause and everything, 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:35.920 I think Trump believes this in his heart. 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:37.920 Maybe there is. 0:07:37.960 --> 0:07:42.000 Some economic data, some market data that comes in later 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:43.880 and causes them to recalibrate. 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:44.960 You know, certainly. 0:07:44.600 --> 0:07:47.040 Everybody's thought there was a Trump put. I think we 0:07:47.120 --> 0:07:51.160 miss priced the Trump put to a large extent. Maybe 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:52.960 it's still there, but I think at the end of 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:54.280 the day, they're thinking about legacy. 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:54.560 Well. 0:07:54.600 --> 0:07:57.520 He basically said recently to The Atlantic that there's really 0:07:57.560 --> 0:07:59.880 no red line, no certain number that would pull him 0:07:59.880 --> 0:08:02.720 back and reverse policy. To your point, though, that he 0:08:02.760 --> 0:08:05.160 wants to see a global realignment. He talked about yesterday 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:07.800 in this town hall. The fact that terrors are difficult 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:10.320 to explain because he takes a maximus approach to then 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:12.880 bring it down. Do you believe he wants a full 0:08:12.920 --> 0:08:15.679 global realignment with some of the figures he has now 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:18.440 or he wants negotiated deals in terms? 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:22.720 I think he wants negotiated deals to get to that endpoint. 0:08:23.160 --> 0:08:28.440 That endpoint being that restructured global economy, whatever that looks like. 0:08:28.480 --> 0:08:32.400 And I don't know that he necessarily has a clear 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:35.000 picture in his mind what it's supposed to look like, 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:36.320 what he wants it to look like. 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:37.959 I think at the. 0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:41.400 Heart, the current system, in his view, does not serve 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:44.520 America well. And you can debate whether that's true or not, 0:08:44.559 --> 0:08:48.280 but in his mind it doesn't serve America well, and 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:51.680 so he wants to leave something that's better, and I 0:08:51.679 --> 0:08:53.800 think it's probably through a negotiated deal. 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:55.800 How you get there is another matter. 0:08:55.920 --> 0:08:57.920 So when it comes to China, what do you think 0:08:57.960 --> 0:09:01.120 this could look like? I was talking to people yesterday Washington, 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:03.920 DC who are convinced that Trump wants a grand bargain 0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:06.800 includes things like TikTok and other levers they can pull. 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:09.080 What do you think that deal could potentially look like? 0:09:09.240 --> 0:09:09.440 Yeah? 0:09:09.440 --> 0:09:11.840 I think I think I'm not sure what the deal 0:09:11.840 --> 0:09:13.600 looks like, cause I think it's a lot more complicated 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:16.560 than people think it is. So, look, China takes a 0:09:16.679 --> 0:09:19.040 much longer view than we do. They think they can 0:09:19.080 --> 0:09:22.120 outlast us, that the pain threshold, that kind of Jonathan 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:24.240 was just alluding to that it'll be so great in 0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:27.480 the United States that the US is gonna have to 0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:29.720 capitulate at some point. So they're gonna they're gonna wait 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:32.600 on this. The other is, you know, there's been this 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:36.120 view in the United States that China has more to 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:38.319 lose from this than we do. And if you look 0:09:38.320 --> 0:09:40.880 at the raw numbers, yes that that that's true. You know, 0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:43.719 they export more here than goes the other way. At 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:49.040 the same time, the US exports to uh Chinese exports 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:51.440 to the United States are about less than three percent 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:55.920 than the overall Chinese GDP. That's a big number, but 0:09:56.000 --> 0:09:58.640 it's a manageable number. And if you take that longer view, 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:01.720 you can strut to restructure economy and find other trading 0:10:01.760 --> 0:10:04.760 partners stiff to at least partially fill the void. 0:10:04.880 --> 0:10:07.000 So I think this is going to do. I think 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:10.240 China is going to take much longer than people expected to. 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:13.280 I want to build on John's line of questioning where 0:10:13.280 --> 0:10:15.160 he said, right now, doesn't seem like the polls is 0:10:15.200 --> 0:10:17.640 really a check on the president, despite what a lot 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:20.080 of people had expected. Doesn't seem what the stock market 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:24.240 is a check on this president's policies. What is a 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:27.400 check potentially on what he decides to. 0:10:27.360 --> 0:10:28.920 Do and not just what he decides to do, but 0:10:29.040 --> 0:10:29.840 how he does it. 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:33.600 I do think I agree the stock market is not 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:35.920 a check. I do think what we've seen is that 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:38.600 the bond markets and the broader financial markets are a check. 0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:40.440 And I think you have the Secretary of the Treasury 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:46.040 talking to the president and warning him about economic repercussions 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:49.720 if he keeps going down in certain lines on trade policy. 0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:51.840 I think that's why we got the pause. So there 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:56.920 are some checks. Again, we probably have mispriced all of this. 0:10:57.320 --> 0:10:57.520 Right. 0:10:57.840 --> 0:11:00.960 The checks are still there, there are just much different levels. 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:03.240 What that level is I don't. We don't know until 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:07.680 we know. It's impossible to say. But his poll numbers 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:10.120 have deteriorated over the last couple of weeks. 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:12.000 The honeymoon seems to be over. 0:11:12.480 --> 0:11:15.000 Very interestingly enough, this is lining up pretty much with 0:11:15.040 --> 0:11:18.559 the same timing that President Biden saw his honeymoon end 0:11:19.200 --> 0:11:22.319 when he got when we had the problems with Afghanistan 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:27.240 and a few other issues in April of twenty twenty one. 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:30.280 Maybe there is some level at which. 0:11:30.360 --> 0:11:33.719 You know, further poll deterioration causes the White House to 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:37.080 rethink this. And you know, because the president's not running again, 0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:39.000 he's a little bit immune to polls. 0:11:39.000 --> 0:11:40.000 But at some point does. 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:42.400 The vice president ste been because obviously the vice president 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:42.719 is going. 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:43.439 To want to succeed. 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:46.760 And how much sway does jd Vance have with the president, 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:49.520 because clearly he is looking towards twenty twenty eight. 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:50.760 Donald Trump's not He's. 0:11:50.559 --> 0:11:51.800 Got to say that's a huge question. 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:52.080 Broan. 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:53.520 It's got to say you've said thank you for having 0:11:53.600 --> 0:12:06.040 got in that have stayful. Let's stick with tech. Apple 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:08.720 reporting results after the closing Now today Dan ives of 0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:11.160 wet Bush, writing, we remain bullish on the long term 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:14.160 opportunity for Apple's flagship ecosystem. 0:12:14.440 --> 0:12:15.480 Investors need to look. 0:12:15.360 --> 0:12:18.479 Past the next three months and assumed China tariff negotiations 0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:22.760 take a positive turn, Dan optimistic as always joined us 0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:25.200 Now for more, Dan, welcome to the program sir, Let's 0:12:25.200 --> 0:12:26.960 go straight to it with Apple. How are you going 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:29.719 to draw a distinction later on this afternoon between a 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:33.040 front loading people rush into the stores before the tariffs 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:36.360 and decent, sustainable underlying demand. 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:40.040 Yeah, I'm actually less focused in the quarter as you 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:42.319 talk about in terms of pour forward or front loading. 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:45.240 Really about what Cook talks about in terms of parrots, 0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:48.320 like are they going to stay on schedule iphon seventeen launch? 0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:51.559 You know how they're going to sort of scenario analysis 0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:53.520 in terms of when they're seeing in China that we 0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:56.720 need to hear from Trump administration? Whose are the keys? 0:12:57.040 --> 0:13:00.400 And I actually numbers take a back seat to Cook's 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:01.600 commentary about that. 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:04.880 So don let's talk about the guidance then, what kind 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:07.079 of scenarios they could offer, and what you think of 0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:09.560 the approach so far from corporate Americas, Because we've seen 0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:11.880 a range of things down. Some people have just pulled guidance, 0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:14.839 haven't offered any other people of some people have offered 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.839 multiple scenarios. What would you appreciate What would you prefer 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:19.320 to see this afternoon. 0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:22.840 I prefer no guidance because I need you give guidance. 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:25.839 Jactually put your back ends the wall. I want they 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:29.360 could give some sort of scenarios, but it comes down 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:32.360 to Junes of Mulligan. It's a passaway border. I think 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:35.320 the really focus is, you know, do you launch in 0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:38.959 terms of September. I've burned seventeen and give some scenarios 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:42.320 and ranges for investors to understand what this could do. Look, 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:45.680 we've already factored ten percent cuts to numbers, worst case 0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:49.200 twelve to fifteen percent, best case two to five percent. 0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:51.440 That's how we're going into tonight. 0:13:52.000 --> 0:13:54.280 You know, John Ray's just a really interesting point earlier 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:58.240 Dan about how much forward buying there was over the 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:00.440 past couple of months and frankly over the last couple 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:03.760 of weeks to get ahead of any potential disruptions in 0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:07.160 shipments from China. Are you expecting to get any guidance 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:09.560 about the pull forward effects and maybe that we could 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:12.760 even see much better than expected numbers that will only 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:15.040 be made up in maybe declines later on. 0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:18.520 Yeah, Look, there will be pulled forward, and again I 0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:21.120 think number draps are going to be burned strong, and 0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:24.440 I think they could quantify some of that, But that's 0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:27.880 sort of that sort of breadcrumbs. I think the real 0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:31.320 focus in next few quarters, over the next six to 0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:34.800 nine months, how they're going to navigate these in terms 0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:38.160 of maybe even talking out some supply shame plans the 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:42.240 India new scenario. I think that I think any commentary 0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:45.560 like that would be very important to understand from Cook 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:49.520 to kind of put a flash light in a dark 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:51.680 tunnel when it comes to TARFF scenarios. 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:55.560 We're hearing a lot of commentary about how maybe Meta 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:58.240 and Microsoft have been somewhat immune. We're going to be 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:01.960 hearing more potentially from Apple and Amazon. We got this 0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:05.440 reporting overnight from the Wallstreet Journal that they were thinking 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:08.800 among some of the height at Tesla at some of 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:11.400 the height of the of the carnage and some of 0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:13.920 the boycotts, that they are looking at potentially getting another 0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:16.720 CEO to replace Elon Musk. 0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:18.240 What do you make of that? 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:19.720 Look? 0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:22.640 We talked about it on your show right a lot. 0:15:22.880 --> 0:15:25.600 I mean the point is, regardless the board denies it, 0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:28.800 and the scenario is this was the moment of truth. 0:15:29.040 --> 0:15:31.520 The board had to do something, whether it's a warning 0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:34.000 shot or whatever it may be, it must kind to 0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:38.440 choose CEO of Tesser Dude, and we thought that conference 0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:42.040 call is probably the best conference clubsee must do maybe 0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:44.440 ever or Leased in the last four or five years 0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:49.240 so important because the brand damage and what was ultimately happening. 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:50.360 Clock struck midnight. 0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:53.760 So regardless of the semantics and what actually happened, what 0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:57.600 did happen, the end result is a huge positive. Must 0:15:57.720 --> 0:16:00.560 back in the driver's seat SEEO of tests. And I 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:03.200 continue to think like his deeds the White House are 0:16:03.240 --> 0:16:04.880 essentially do well. 0:16:04.760 --> 0:16:06.360 Dan, They're not in the sense that he was at 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:09.200 the cabinet meeting yesterday wearing not just one but two 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:11.720 make America Great hat stacked on top of each other. 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:16.200 Even though he is more focused maybe on Tesla now 0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:18.760 than he was in the beginning of this administration, were 0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:23.040 very focused on Doje. Can that brand destruction still carry through? 0:16:24.040 --> 0:16:25.920 Yeah, look me and you've talked about that a lot, 0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:29.480 and I'd be surprised of these other cabinet meetings. I mean, 0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:32.600 just given I think the pressure for him to short 0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:35.800 detach himself. But we've to have brand damage. 0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:36.920 You got to contain it. 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:42.560 You have a massive error of growth ahead. Autonomous robotics 0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:46.000 turning things around in China, especially bid in terms of 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:50.520 rising here, in terms of from a share perspective, leaders lead. 0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:54.400 That's what Musk has to do now, and I just 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:56.880 think that was the move that he started to take 0:16:57.000 --> 0:16:59.600 on last week's call, and I think that's what we 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:02.080 expect to see from Must going forward. It's also why 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:05.640 the stocks up because ultimately now you have the biggest 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:09.120 asset of Pessa fact, regardless of the drama that went 0:17:09.160 --> 0:17:12.200 through between the board and Musk or whatever did or 0:17:12.280 --> 0:17:12.840 didn't happen. 0:17:12.840 --> 0:17:14.680 And then let's finish on the biggest challenge to them 0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:17.720 right now, which I think could possibly be a tie 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:21.160 up between Weimo and Toyota. We're talking about the best 0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:23.960 setting comprand on the planet, two of the best setting 0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:25.679 models out of the top three in the world in 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:29.119 the last twelve months getting together with Weimo, that's delivering 0:17:29.359 --> 0:17:31.639 two hundred and two hundred thousand, two hundred and fifty 0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:35.320 thousand paid trips every single week. Why isn't that a 0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:38.560 threat to Tesla. 0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:41.400 I personally think that's not as big a throw as 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:44.119 maybe some park right well, Wimber two hundred forty thousand 0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:47.760 dollars cards and four cities that obviously will expand they 0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:50.200 had the lead in terms of coming out of the gate. 0:17:50.600 --> 0:17:52.960 I think when it comes to Scire cabs and house 0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:56.480 iding on Parliament. There the scaling scope. They're really going 0:17:56.560 --> 0:17:59.159 to own that market. So you're going to see more 0:17:59.160 --> 0:18:01.439 and more partnership like this. But it's not like I 0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:05.320 view this partnership as something that changes my thesis on 0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:08.320 Tessa in terms of autonomous but it also speaks more 0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:12.520 and more must need to be leading. Keessla not sitting 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:15.360 there as the said, wearing you know, two or three 0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:16.920 hats and the cabinet meaning. 0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:20.400 I'm guessing you're at the airport, Dan travel safely. It's 0:18:20.400 --> 0:18:21.920 good to see us, sir. Thank you guys a making 0:18:22.000 --> 0:18:23.440 sign for us. Then I have a web pish there 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:35.440 with this around the table now being Lincoln of being 0:18:35.440 --> 0:18:36.880 my capital market Seeco. 0:18:36.680 --> 0:18:38.119 Monic morning, thanks for having me on. 0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:40.399 I'm going to repeat that question for you. The Treasury 0:18:40.440 --> 0:18:43.000 Secretary scout person said, because the two year yield is 0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:45.399 trading below FED funds, it's evidence that they are too 0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:47.840 tight and they should cut interest rates. What's your response 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:48.240 to that. 0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:52.160 It's suggesting that the market anticipates it. Over the course 0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:54.800 of the next twenty four months, effective FED funds is 0:18:54.800 --> 0:18:56.960 going to be lower than it is. That doesn't mean 0:18:57.320 --> 0:18:59.400 that now is the time to cut that just means 0:18:59.400 --> 0:19:02.080 that the market is telling us that they FED will 0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:04.160 resume normalization at one point. 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:06.920 Does it concern you that there is so much discussion 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:10.000 around FED policy from administration officials. 0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:13.400 Well, we came into this knowing that there was going 0:19:13.440 --> 0:19:16.840 to be some political pressure put on Powell. There's been 0:19:16.880 --> 0:19:19.879 conversations coming out of the White House about potentially removing him. 0:19:20.000 --> 0:19:21.840 I don't think that that's really in the cards order. 0:19:21.920 --> 0:19:25.520 I think that's frankly possible. It's not surprising, however, that 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:30.240 we have started to see some negotiations again with potential 0:19:30.240 --> 0:19:33.800 replacements for Powell coming into whether it's fee of the media, 0:19:33.920 --> 0:19:37.040 whether it's conversations that have been had at the White House. 0:19:37.080 --> 0:19:41.280 So I'm not really surprised, but somewhat apprehensive of the 0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:43.399 uncertainty created by this political pressure. 0:19:43.440 --> 0:19:45.400 Well that's what I was going to say on the margins. 0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:48.679