1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Binky Shadow of Deutsche 10 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 2: Bank writing, our base case remains for a significant rally 11 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:43,880 Speaker 2: on a credible relent on trade policies, with a target 12 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:46,920 Speaker 2: of sixty one to fifty by year end. Thinking, good morning, 13 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 2: good to see us, sir. Sixty one to fifty the 14 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 2: new target. It's down from seven K. Let's deal with 15 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 2: the language. There a credible relent on trade policy? What 16 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 2: does that mean to you? 17 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 3: So you know, it's meant to capture an idea, and 18 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 3: it's about convincing the market that you're sort of done 19 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 3: with the trade policy issue, that there is a huge 20 00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:11,119 Speaker 3: amount of uncertainty about the different ways that that can 21 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 3: be done. And at the end of the day, given 22 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 3: where we are, you know, I expect it will be 23 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 3: kind of mushy. I don't have a better word than that. 24 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 3: So some trade deals, perhaps some lowering the big question 25 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 3: mark about ten you know, the ten percent uniform tariff, 26 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 3: because by the uniform tariff that we have put on ourselves, 27 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 3: we've weren't us growth more than we are hurting anyone else. 28 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 2: At least to ask the question where the pressure would 29 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 2: come from. Where do you see the pressure coming from? 30 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 2: What drives that credible relent? 31 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 4: I think at the end of the day, it's the 32 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 4: same thing. 33 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 3: So when you think about presidential elections, you know, we've 34 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 3: all heard it's about the economy. 35 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 4: Stupid in the sense that other things. 36 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 3: Matter, but it's mostly about the economy. And so I 37 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 3: would argue it's presidential job approval ratings. And because you know, 38 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 3: if you think about if the presidential election is about 39 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 3: the economy, and then you ask people, you know, where 40 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 3: do we ask people how do they feel about the economy? 41 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 3: It's consumer confidence. So the typical pattern is new presidents 42 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 3: start with the hefty sort of goodwill or a honeymoon 43 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 3: period of high improver ratings. The honeymoon then tends to 44 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 3: wear down, and the question is where do we land. 45 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 4: We land at. 46 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 3: Levels that are basically, you know, dictated by consumer confidence. 47 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 3: I would argue happened the last two administrations, and so 48 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 3: you know, we are. 49 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 4: Midway in that process. 50 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 3: We started up here, we've been coming down and the 51 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:46,920 Speaker 3: trajectory right now and I'm just remind that current consumer 52 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,959 Speaker 3: confidence levels, you know, suggests that you might get down 53 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 3: to thirty percent. 54 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 4: And so I think there will be a reaction long before. 55 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, there's some pretty negative soft data that have been 56 00:02:57,040 --> 00:02:59,240 Speaker 5: coming out. You talk with us when you head is 57 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 5: still a seventh thousand and reading seven thousand target on 58 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 5: the S and P five hundred, saying it was a 59 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 5: matter of time and if this uncertainty didn't get resolved, 60 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 5: you would have to bring your forecast down, which is 61 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 5: part of the reason why. 62 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:11,399 Speaker 6: You did bring your forecast down. 63 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 5: Now there is a question of how much longer can 64 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:17,080 Speaker 5: this go on before you bring it down again, Before 65 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 5: you cannot put the toothpaste back in the tube, you 66 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 5: cannot put the gen back in the bottle. Pick your 67 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 5: potential saying how much are you looking at that? 68 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 4: Very much? 69 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 3: I mean I think that, you know, the risk is 70 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 3: that the relent that we were talking about comes basically 71 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 3: too late and the noninearities of for session kick in. 72 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 4: I think one has to be honest. 73 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 3: Which is that it's just very difficult to gauge what 74 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 3: the impact of the tariffs is going to be. And 75 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 3: by that I mean I think they're clearly negative for 76 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 3: US growth. They're very negative for US earnings. Precisely how 77 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 3: much is the question? I mean, on a twelve month basis, 78 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 3: you know, we calculate that the impact would be fifty 79 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 3: six dollars p five hundred EPs. And just to put 80 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 3: that number in perspective, you know, last year we had 81 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 3: two d and fifty dollars of earning. So if you're 82 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 3: talking about fifty six dollars hit, that's a very large number. 83 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 3: It's a very large number by any standards. And so yes, 84 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 3: the nonlinearities of recession can kick in and the relent 85 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:26,120 Speaker 3: might come too late. But you know, then you have 86 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 3: to think about basically, Okay, so if you're going to 87 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 3: go down, maybe we have a recession, you know, getting 88 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:35,360 Speaker 3: a recovery from a supply side recession is you know, 89 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 3: doesn't fit a typical playbook. So it's something that will 90 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 3: have to be you know, seen and work out. 91 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 4: Basically in the. 92 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 5: Sense that big tech is going to lead this charge. 93 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 5: That is essentially what we have already seen from both 94 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 5: Meta and Microsoft as well as Alphabet last week, that 95 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 5: there's sort of a resurgence in faith in US tech 96 00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 5: that can bolster some of the pain that you might 97 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:00,720 Speaker 5: see elsewhere from the likes of McDonald. 98 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 6: Or GM or some of the other companies that are 99 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:02,720 Speaker 6: more hit. 100 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, what I would say is, you know, earnings are 101 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 3: basically saying they're hanging in right now, and earnings are fine. 102 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 3: But again this is about you know, this about yesterday, 103 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:18,160 Speaker 3: not about tomorrow, and the question is what happens tomorrow. 104 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:23,279 Speaker 3: So you know, our take is that earning's growth for 105 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 3: the first quarter currently, you know, looks like it's coming 106 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:32,160 Speaker 3: in around ten percent year and year. That could drop 107 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 3: to basically zero in the second quarter that we are 108 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 3: in and then basically turn negative on the baseline view 109 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 3: that the get out on s tariffs all come into 110 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 3: effect and stay. I mean, it's just you know, if 111 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:49,040 Speaker 3: you think about the numbers, it's just you know, horrendous. 112 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: Think you talk about this relent, what's the level, what's 113 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,560 Speaker 1: the destination you think we're going to get to in 114 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:55,600 Speaker 1: a base case scenario. 115 00:05:57,400 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 4: I don't know, it's the honest answer. 116 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 3: I think it's all getting worked out dynamically, and so 117 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 3: the circumstances and what happens. 118 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 4: So it's data dependent to use a bad term. 119 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 6: So do you think it's political? 120 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 4: Question of yeah, I think it's political. 121 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:16,920 Speaker 1: So basically they have to November third of twenty twenty six. 122 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:21,919 Speaker 3: You know, the midterm elections start a lot earlier, and 123 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,480 Speaker 3: I would argue, you know, the clear and present danger 124 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:28,719 Speaker 3: is to approve ratings they have, you know, sort of 125 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 3: predictable consequences on your ability to cover. 126 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 4: And so we shall. 127 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 2: See, Binky, we shall see. It's going to get an 128 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,279 Speaker 2: update from you. Thank you, sir, appreciate it. Binky Chant 129 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:50,479 Speaker 2: of the Deutsche Bank on the equity market, Brank under 130 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 2: a stafer with a surround of table branc and morning's 131 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 2: a little bit later this morning, we'll catch up with 132 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 2: Binki Chanda, a Deutsche Bank and this is his call 133 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 2: sixty one fifty on the SMP. He says that's going 134 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,280 Speaker 2: to be driven by a credible then on tariffs, and 135 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 2: that will be shaped by damaged polls. Is this president 136 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:06,039 Speaker 2: driven by Poellink? 137 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 4: No. 138 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:09,479 Speaker 7: I think he's driven by legacy. I think that's what 139 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 7: drives everything with the White House right now. This is 140 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 7: the second term. There will be no third term, despite 141 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 7: the you know, the jokes about it. 142 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 8: But he's been talking. Trump has been talking about. 143 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 7: Tariffs and a restructured US economy since the nineteen eighties. 144 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 7: This is it for him. This is a one chance 145 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 7: to get this done. So the idea that there's going 146 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 7: to be this massive pullback despite the pause and everything, 147 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 7: I think Trump believes this in his heart. 148 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 8: Maybe there is. 149 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 7: Some economic data, some market data that comes in later 150 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 7: and causes them to recalibrate. 151 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 8: You know, certainly. 152 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 7: Everybody's thought there was a Trump put. I think we 153 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 7: miss priced the Trump put to a large extent. Maybe 154 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 7: it's still there, but I think at the end of 155 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 7: the day, they're thinking about legacy. 156 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 4: Well. 157 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 1: He basically said recently to The Atlantic that there's really 158 00:07:57,560 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 1: no red line, no certain number that would pull him 159 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 1: back and reverse policy. To your point, though, that he 160 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 1: wants to see a global realignment. He talked about yesterday 161 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 1: in this town hall. The fact that terrors are difficult 162 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 1: to explain because he takes a maximus approach to then 163 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 1: bring it down. Do you believe he wants a full 164 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:15,679 Speaker 1: global realignment with some of the figures he has now 165 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 1: or he wants negotiated deals in terms? 166 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 7: I think he wants negotiated deals to get to that endpoint. 167 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 7: That endpoint being that restructured global economy, whatever that looks like. 168 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 7: And I don't know that he necessarily has a clear 169 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 7: picture in his mind what it's supposed to look like, 170 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:36,320 Speaker 7: what he wants it to look like. 171 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:37,959 Speaker 8: I think at the. 172 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:41,400 Speaker 7: Heart, the current system, in his view, does not serve 173 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 7: America well. And you can debate whether that's true or not, 174 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 7: but in his mind it doesn't serve America well, and 175 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 7: so he wants to leave something that's better, and I 176 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 7: think it's probably through a negotiated deal. 177 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 8: How you get there is another matter. 178 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 1: So when it comes to China, what do you think 179 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 1: this could look like? I was talking to people yesterday Washington, 180 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: DC who are convinced that Trump wants a grand bargain 181 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 1: includes things like TikTok and other levers they can pull. 182 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:09,080 Speaker 1: What do you think that deal could potentially look like? 183 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 4: Yeah? 184 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 7: I think I think I'm not sure what the deal 185 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 7: looks like, cause I think it's a lot more complicated 186 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,560 Speaker 7: than people think it is. So, look, China takes a 187 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 7: much longer view than we do. They think they can 188 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 7: outlast us, that the pain threshold, that kind of Jonathan 189 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 7: was just alluding to that it'll be so great in 190 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 7: the United States that the US is gonna have to 191 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 7: capitulate at some point. So they're gonna they're gonna wait 192 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 7: on this. The other is, you know, there's been this 193 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 7: view in the United States that China has more to 194 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:38,319 Speaker 7: lose from this than we do. And if you look 195 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 7: at the raw numbers, yes that that that's true. You know, 196 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:43,719 Speaker 7: they export more here than goes the other way. At 197 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 7: the same time, the US exports to uh Chinese exports 198 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 7: to the United States are about less than three percent 199 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 7: than the overall Chinese GDP. That's a big number, but 200 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 7: it's a manageable number. And if you take that longer view, 201 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:01,720 Speaker 7: you can strut to restructure economy and find other trading 202 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,760 Speaker 7: partners stiff to at least partially fill the void. 203 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 8: So I think this is going to do. I think 204 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 8: China is going to take much longer than people expected to. 205 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 5: I want to build on John's line of questioning where 206 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 5: he said, right now, doesn't seem like the polls is 207 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 5: really a check on the president, despite what a lot 208 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 5: of people had expected. Doesn't seem what the stock market 209 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 5: is a check on this president's policies. What is a 210 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 5: check potentially on what he decides to. 211 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 6: Do and not just what he decides to do, but 212 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 6: how he does it. 213 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 7: I do think I agree the stock market is not 214 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 7: a check. I do think what we've seen is that 215 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 7: the bond markets and the broader financial markets are a check. 216 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 7: And I think you have the Secretary of the Treasury 217 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 7: talking to the president and warning him about economic repercussions 218 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 7: if he keeps going down in certain lines on trade policy. 219 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:51,840 Speaker 7: I think that's why we got the pause. So there 220 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 7: are some checks. Again, we probably have mispriced all of this. 221 00:10:57,320 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 2: Right. 222 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 7: The checks are still there, there are just much different levels. 223 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 7: What that level is I don't. We don't know until 224 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 7: we know. It's impossible to say. But his poll numbers 225 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 7: have deteriorated over the last couple of weeks. 226 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 8: The honeymoon seems to be over. 227 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 7: Very interestingly enough, this is lining up pretty much with 228 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:18,559 Speaker 7: the same timing that President Biden saw his honeymoon end 229 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:22,319 Speaker 7: when he got when we had the problems with Afghanistan 230 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 7: and a few other issues in April of twenty twenty one. 231 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 8: Maybe there is some level at which. 232 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,719 Speaker 7: You know, further poll deterioration causes the White House to 233 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:37,080 Speaker 7: rethink this. And you know, because the president's not running again, 234 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 7: he's a little bit immune to polls. 235 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 8: But at some point does. 236 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 7: The vice president ste been because obviously the vice president 237 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:42,719 Speaker 7: is going. 238 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:43,439 Speaker 8: To want to succeed. 239 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 7: And how much sway does jd Vance have with the president, 240 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 7: because clearly he is looking towards twenty twenty eight. 241 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 8: Donald Trump's not He's. 242 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 2: Got to say that's a huge question. 243 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:52,080 Speaker 4: Broan. 244 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 2: It's got to say you've said thank you for having 245 00:11:53,600 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 2: got in that have stayful. Let's stick with tech. Apple 246 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 2: reporting results after the closing Now today Dan ives of 247 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 2: wet Bush, writing, we remain bullish on the long term 248 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 2: opportunity for Apple's flagship ecosystem. 249 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 8: Investors need to look. 250 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:18,479 Speaker 2: Past the next three months and assumed China tariff negotiations 251 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 2: take a positive turn, Dan optimistic as always joined us 252 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 2: Now for more, Dan, welcome to the program sir, Let's 253 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:26,960 Speaker 2: go straight to it with Apple. How are you going 254 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:29,719 Speaker 2: to draw a distinction later on this afternoon between a 255 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 2: front loading people rush into the stores before the tariffs 256 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 2: and decent, sustainable underlying demand. 257 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 9: Yeah, I'm actually less focused in the quarter as you 258 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:42,319 Speaker 9: talk about in terms of pour forward or front loading. 259 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 9: Really about what Cook talks about in terms of parrots, 260 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:48,320 Speaker 9: like are they going to stay on schedule iphon seventeen launch? 261 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:51,559 Speaker 9: You know how they're going to sort of scenario analysis 262 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 9: in terms of when they're seeing in China that we 263 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 9: need to hear from Trump administration? Whose are the keys? 264 00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 9: And I actually numbers take a back seat to Cook's 265 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 9: commentary about that. 266 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:04,880 Speaker 2: So don let's talk about the guidance then, what kind 267 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:07,079 Speaker 2: of scenarios they could offer, and what you think of 268 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 2: the approach so far from corporate Americas, Because we've seen 269 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 2: a range of things down. Some people have just pulled guidance, 270 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:14,839 Speaker 2: haven't offered any other people of some people have offered 271 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:17,839 Speaker 2: multiple scenarios. What would you appreciate What would you prefer 272 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:19,320 Speaker 2: to see this afternoon. 273 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 9: I prefer no guidance because I need you give guidance. 274 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:25,839 Speaker 9: Jactually put your back ends the wall. I want they 275 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 9: could give some sort of scenarios, but it comes down 276 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 9: to Junes of Mulligan. It's a passaway border. I think 277 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,320 Speaker 9: the really focus is, you know, do you launch in 278 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:38,959 Speaker 9: terms of September. I've burned seventeen and give some scenarios 279 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 9: and ranges for investors to understand what this could do. Look, 280 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 9: we've already factored ten percent cuts to numbers, worst case 281 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 9: twelve to fifteen percent, best case two to five percent. 282 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:51,440 Speaker 9: That's how we're going into tonight. 283 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 5: You know, John Ray's just a really interesting point earlier 284 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 5: Dan about how much forward buying there was over the 285 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 5: past couple of months and frankly over the last couple 286 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 5: of weeks to get ahead of any potential disruptions in 287 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 5: shipments from China. Are you expecting to get any guidance 288 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:09,560 Speaker 5: about the pull forward effects and maybe that we could 289 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 5: even see much better than expected numbers that will only 290 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 5: be made up in maybe declines later on. 291 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 9: Yeah, Look, there will be pulled forward, and again I 292 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 9: think number draps are going to be burned strong, and 293 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 9: I think they could quantify some of that, But that's 294 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:27,880 Speaker 9: sort of that sort of breadcrumbs. I think the real 295 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 9: focus in next few quarters, over the next six to 296 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 9: nine months, how they're going to navigate these in terms 297 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 9: of maybe even talking out some supply shame plans the 298 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 9: India new scenario. I think that I think any commentary 299 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 9: like that would be very important to understand from Cook 300 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 9: to kind of put a flash light in a dark 301 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 9: tunnel when it comes to TARFF scenarios. 302 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 5: We're hearing a lot of commentary about how maybe Meta 303 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 5: and Microsoft have been somewhat immune. We're going to be 304 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 5: hearing more potentially from Apple and Amazon. We got this 305 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 5: reporting overnight from the Wallstreet Journal that they were thinking 306 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 5: among some of the height at Tesla at some of 307 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 5: the height of the of the carnage and some of 308 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 5: the boycotts, that they are looking at potentially getting another 309 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 5: CEO to replace Elon Musk. 310 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 6: What do you make of that? 311 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 10: Look? 312 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 9: We talked about it on your show right a lot. 313 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 9: I mean the point is, regardless the board denies it, 314 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 9: and the scenario is this was the moment of truth. 315 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 9: The board had to do something, whether it's a warning 316 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 9: shot or whatever it may be, it must kind to 317 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 9: choose CEO of Tesser Dude, and we thought that conference 318 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 9: call is probably the best conference clubsee must do maybe 319 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 9: ever or Leased in the last four or five years 320 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:49,240 Speaker 9: so important because the brand damage and what was ultimately happening. 321 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 8: Clock struck midnight. 322 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 9: So regardless of the semantics and what actually happened, what 323 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 9: did happen, the end result is a huge positive. Must 324 00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 9: back in the driver's seat SEEO of tests. And I 325 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 9: continue to think like his deeds the White House are 326 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 9: essentially do well. 327 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:06,360 Speaker 1: Dan, They're not in the sense that he was at 328 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 1: the cabinet meeting yesterday wearing not just one but two 329 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 1: make America Great hat stacked on top of each other. 330 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 1: Even though he is more focused maybe on Tesla now 331 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 1: than he was in the beginning of this administration, were 332 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: very focused on Doje. Can that brand destruction still carry through? 333 00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 9: Yeah, look me and you've talked about that a lot, 334 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 9: and I'd be surprised of these other cabinet meetings. I mean, 335 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,600 Speaker 9: just given I think the pressure for him to short 336 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 9: detach himself. But we've to have brand damage. 337 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 8: You got to contain it. 338 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 9: You have a massive error of growth ahead. Autonomous robotics 339 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 9: turning things around in China, especially bid in terms of 340 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 9: rising here, in terms of from a share perspective, leaders lead. 341 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 9: That's what Musk has to do now, and I just 342 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:56,880 Speaker 9: think that was the move that he started to take 343 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 9: on last week's call, and I think that's what we 344 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 9: expect to see from Must going forward. It's also why 345 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:05,640 Speaker 9: the stocks up because ultimately now you have the biggest 346 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:09,120 Speaker 9: asset of Pessa fact, regardless of the drama that went 347 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,200 Speaker 9: through between the board and Musk or whatever did or 348 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 9: didn't happen. 349 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:14,680 Speaker 2: And then let's finish on the biggest challenge to them 350 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 2: right now, which I think could possibly be a tie 351 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:21,160 Speaker 2: up between Weimo and Toyota. We're talking about the best 352 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 2: setting comprand on the planet, two of the best setting 353 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:25,679 Speaker 2: models out of the top three in the world in 354 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:29,119 Speaker 2: the last twelve months getting together with Weimo, that's delivering 355 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,639 Speaker 2: two hundred and two hundred thousand, two hundred and fifty 356 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 2: thousand paid trips every single week. Why isn't that a 357 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 2: threat to Tesla. 358 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,400 Speaker 9: I personally think that's not as big a throw as 359 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:44,119 Speaker 9: maybe some park right well, Wimber two hundred forty thousand 360 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 9: dollars cards and four cities that obviously will expand they 361 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 9: had the lead in terms of coming out of the gate. 362 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 9: I think when it comes to Scire cabs and house 363 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 9: iding on Parliament. There the scaling scope. They're really going 364 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,159 Speaker 9: to own that market. So you're going to see more 365 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:01,439 Speaker 9: and more partnership like this. But it's not like I 366 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:05,320 Speaker 9: view this partnership as something that changes my thesis on 367 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 9: Tessa in terms of autonomous but it also speaks more 368 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 9: and more must need to be leading. Keessla not sitting 369 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,360 Speaker 9: there as the said, wearing you know, two or three 370 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:16,920 Speaker 9: hats and the cabinet meaning. 371 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:20,400 Speaker 2: I'm guessing you're at the airport, Dan travel safely. It's 372 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:21,920 Speaker 2: good to see us, sir. Thank you guys a making 373 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 2: sign for us. Then I have a web pish there 374 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,440 Speaker 2: with this around the table now being Lincoln of being 375 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:36,880 Speaker 2: my capital market Seeco. 376 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:38,119 Speaker 10: Monic morning, thanks for having me on. 377 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:40,399 Speaker 2: I'm going to repeat that question for you. The Treasury 378 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 2: Secretary scout person said, because the two year yield is 379 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 2: trading below FED funds, it's evidence that they are too 380 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 2: tight and they should cut interest rates. What's your response 381 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 2: to that. 382 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:52,160 Speaker 10: It's suggesting that the market anticipates it. Over the course 383 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 10: of the next twenty four months, effective FED funds is 384 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 10: going to be lower than it is. That doesn't mean 385 00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:59,400 Speaker 10: that now is the time to cut that just means 386 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 10: that the market is telling us that they FED will 387 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:04,160 Speaker 10: resume normalization at one point. 388 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:06,920 Speaker 5: Does it concern you that there is so much discussion 389 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:10,000 Speaker 5: around FED policy from administration officials. 390 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:13,400 Speaker 10: Well, we came into this knowing that there was going 391 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 10: to be some political pressure put on Powell. There's been 392 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:19,879 Speaker 10: conversations coming out of the White House about potentially removing him. 393 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 10: I don't think that that's really in the cards order. 394 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 10: I think that's frankly possible. It's not surprising, however, that 395 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 10: we have started to see some negotiations again with potential 396 00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,800 Speaker 10: replacements for Powell coming into whether it's fee of the media, 397 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 10: whether it's conversations that have been had at the White House. 398 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 10: So I'm not really surprised, but somewhat apprehensive of the 399 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:43,399 Speaker 10: uncertainty created by this political pressure. 400 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,400 Speaker 6: Well that's what I was going to say on the margins. 401 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:48,679 Speaker 5: Is this a fact not just FED policy, but also 402 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 5: how the market responds to it. If there is this 403 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 5: feeling that there will be somebody else coming in, that 404 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:56,440 Speaker 5: there could be a shadow FED, that there is pressure 405 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,720 Speaker 5: increasing job owning, and frankly that FED fit officials may 406 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 5: feel like any decision or words that they say will 407 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 5: be interpreted in a political way, both in the market 408 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 5: and in the White House. 409 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:09,440 Speaker 10: I don't think it's really a typical for the administration 410 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 10: to be pushing back against any given FED or any 411 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:16,200 Speaker 10: head of the FED. But what I think it's what's 412 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 10: so unique in this cycle is how vocal and how 413 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 10: real time it has become. Typically, you would expect any 414 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:25,639 Speaker 10: sitting president to want the easiest monetary policy possible. But 415 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,440 Speaker 10: Powell's objectives are for the long term stability and health 416 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 10: of the US economy, which involves price stability, and that's 417 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 10: the That's a battle he's fighting at the moment. 418 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:38,680 Speaker 1: Because it's so vocalsure and the trum FED chair how 419 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 1: to come out and say this is an appropriate a 420 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 1: sense saying by law he's allowed to stay in his job. 421 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 1: Does it make it harder for them to cut rates 422 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 1: if they had to extend It just looks like they're 423 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,439 Speaker 1: placating the President of the United States. 424 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 10: Well, I think something that we've learned over the course 425 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 10: of the last several weeks is yes, there's a power put, 426 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,879 Speaker 10: but there's also a Trump put, and the Trump put 427 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 10: is struck higher than in the power put. Powell doesn't 428 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 10: want to encourage and reinforce behavior in the White House 429 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 10: that isn't necessarily going to be good for the long 430 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 10: term health of the economy. And so to your point, 431 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 10: I think that when Powell deems it time to resume normalization, 432 00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 10: that that's when it happens, and he won't give into 433 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:18,159 Speaker 10: the political pressure. 434 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,919 Speaker 1: Following the Treasury Secretary's comments about the two year rate 435 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:22,640 Speaker 1: below the Fed funds rate, Neil dot To put out 436 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 1: notes and wage and salary growth is running below the 437 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 1: level of Fed funds rate as well, meaning it's already 438 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,159 Speaker 1: too tight. What do you make of that argument? 439 00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:35,399 Speaker 10: Well, I will argue that the bulk of what has 440 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:37,399 Speaker 10: occurred over the last six or eight weeks has been 441 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 10: really a uncertainty inducing event, and it follows intuitively that 442 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 10: as some of the backward looking data could suggest that 443 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 10: it's time to cut rates, that the market is focused 444 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 10: on those aspects of it. There's also aspects of the 445 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 10: data that suggests that the Fed should continue to remain 446 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 10: on hold until September or later, which is actually my 447 00:21:58,520 --> 00:21:59,120 Speaker 10: assumption at. 448 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 2: This point is ready to call moments. Take the numbers 449 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 2: from Visa. We mentioned this just yesterday. We've not seen 450 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,439 Speaker 2: any signs of overall consumer spending weakening. That's from the 451 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,359 Speaker 2: CEO from McDonald's right now, this is what they're saying. 452 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 2: They're cautious about the overall half of the consumer. They're 453 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 2: seeing pressure hitting the middle income consumer in America and elsewhere. 454 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:16,960 Speaker 2: Picky poison. 455 00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 4: Right now. 456 00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 5: It's difficult, and that's the reason why cruise liners are up. 457 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 5: But if you look at one cruise liner, it's up, 458 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:23,760 Speaker 5: but maybe not the other. And then you have people saying, well, 459 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 5: sometimes companies are just trying to use the circumstances as 460 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,160 Speaker 5: an excuse to talk about weakness. 461 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:31,920 Speaker 6: That might have already been president in their business models. 462 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 5: It is difficult to understand whether this consumer is going 463 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 5: to be tolerant of price increases or not, which is 464 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,200 Speaker 5: the reason why you might see some testing by companies 465 00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 5: to see, let's get a sense can they absorb this 466 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 5: and can we pass it along. 467 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 2: I don't think it gets any easier from here. You're 468 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 2: going to see way more distortions in the data for weeks, 469 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 2: maybe even months to come in. It's wonderful to catch 470 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:54,159 Speaker 2: up with this appreciated in lind There of Bemo Capital Markets. 471 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Sevenance podcast bringing you the best 472 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,880 Speaker 2: in markets, economics, and politics. You can watch the show 473 00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,879 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to 474 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 475 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,159 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on the 476 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.