WEBVTT - Best NFL Bets for Week 13 | Top Picks and Predictions (Ep. 606) 0:00:01.000 --> 0:00:03.080 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's down to place 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:05.760 your bets. This meet Joey P, joe P z Apia 0:00:05.880 --> 0:00:08.720 and this is BP NFL. It's time to look to 0:00:08.760 --> 0:00:11.960 the rest of the games for Week thirteen in the NFL. 0:00:12.240 --> 0:00:15.400 The Thanksgiving games are in the books, as is Black Friday. 0:00:16.079 --> 0:00:18.440 And of course now we've got to look to the Sunday, 0:00:18.560 --> 0:00:22.119 Sunday Night and Monday games. And Sunday Night might have 0:00:22.200 --> 0:00:24.840 some snow apparently, so that's exciting. I know the forty 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.040 nine ers love to play in the snow. I bet, 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:29.120 but to help me break down the games with the 0:00:29.120 --> 0:00:31.560 best bets of the week, as Andrew Erickson the Undertaker 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:34.000 and Terrell Furman Junior, gentlemen, I hope you had a 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:36.199 wonderful Thanksgiving. It's time to get back to work, and 0:00:36.240 --> 0:00:38.440 don't forget everybody. If you're gonna get back to work, 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:40.560 make sure you download the Betting Pros app and sink 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:42.640 your sportsbooks for free. Don't forget you also get the 0:00:42.640 --> 0:00:45.080 three free days of Premium at the top there so 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:46.720 you can see the best tools in the business to 0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:49.920 help you win all that cash. Let's begin here where 0:00:49.920 --> 0:00:53.599 we always like to Tomlin as an underdog. Mike Tomlin as 0:00:53.600 --> 0:00:56.000 an underdog is Trell Furman's favorite thing. I think in 0:00:56.040 --> 0:00:59.240 the world, what do you love more? Let's see a 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:03.160 good Thanksgiving side, like a really good maca cheese, a 0:01:03.200 --> 0:01:06.200 really good stuffing, or a Mike Tomlin underdog. What's your 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:07.400 favorite thing? Draw This is easy. 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:09.800 It's the Mike Tomlin underdog because that's gonna cash and 0:01:09.920 --> 0:01:13.039 then I can go get me with that money some side, 0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:15.240 so I have the best of both worlds. Like it's 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:18.400 really really easy there, come on now. I mean, shout 0:01:18.400 --> 0:01:22.640 out to Jamis for being so lucky to get the 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:26.600 positive spot of playing Mike Tomlin as a favorite, because 0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:28.280 that was the only chance that the Browns had and 0:01:28.319 --> 0:01:31.000 guess what, they got it done. And now we come 0:01:31.040 --> 0:01:33.080 back and get them as a dog against this Bengals 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:37.000 team that I mean, they're looking at that seventh loss 0:01:37.040 --> 0:01:41.240 and they're like, guys, I know we said we're gonna 0:01:41.280 --> 0:01:44.160 make it still, but we're running out of real estate here. 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:46.440 And I think that for a lot of teams, this 0:01:46.560 --> 0:01:49.000 is either a spot where they can kind of get up. 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:49.760 You know. 0:01:49.880 --> 0:01:53.000 We remember Aaron Rodgers and the R. E. Lax and 0:01:53.040 --> 0:01:56.080 they went and got But what happens more often than not, 0:01:56.800 --> 0:01:59.960 these teams just lay down and it's just over the seasons. 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:03.960 It's a bad season. Coaches get fired, people get blamed, 0:02:04.400 --> 0:02:06.280 and that's what I think is going to be at 0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:07.880 the end of this Bengals season. Like I think that 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:09.600 it's going to be a time to see of the season. 0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:11.239 I don't think that the second f the season is 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:13.600 going to go well with them. They caught those Steelers 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:15.880 in a horrible spot where CJ. Watt's coming off a 0:02:15.880 --> 0:02:17.960 bad game. I think he's going to get active around 0:02:18.040 --> 0:02:20.359 Joe Burrow. And how do you beat Joe Burrow by 0:02:20.400 --> 0:02:22.919 getting pressures to him constantly keeping him on his back, 0:02:23.080 --> 0:02:25.119 not letting them get comfortable in the pocket. I think 0:02:25.160 --> 0:02:27.919 the Steelers have the defense that is made where they 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:31.440 can give this Bengals offense some real, real problems here. 0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:33.919 So I think the Steelers ugly up this game. Plus 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:35.279 three is way too many. 0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:37.560 Ericson When we were talking about the look ahead, we 0:02:37.560 --> 0:02:40.160 were like, is this wrong? Are we seeing this correctly? 0:02:40.200 --> 0:02:42.760 It feels like the Steelers should be favored. They've got 0:02:42.760 --> 0:02:46.680 the extra rest, you know. The flukiness of the weather 0:02:46.800 --> 0:02:48.600 certainly has a big impact. Now, we did see a 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:50.520 lot more justin fields too. Maybe that was because of 0:02:50.520 --> 0:02:52.560 the weather, but he also to look at some of 0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:54.640 the inefficiencies in the red zone that Russell Wilson's had 0:02:54.680 --> 0:02:57.320 some issues with since taking over, and I think that's 0:02:57.360 --> 0:03:00.320 starting to rear its ugly head. That being said, it 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:02.120 does feel like the Steelers side of this game is 0:03:02.120 --> 0:03:03.040 the right side to be on. 0:03:03.120 --> 0:03:06.000 And you agree, Yeah, I want the Steelers with the points. 0:03:06.000 --> 0:03:08.959 It's funny, you know, Mike Tomlin. He wakes up, He's like, yes, 0:03:09.320 --> 0:03:11.600 we're road underdogs. We can win this game. Like that's 0:03:11.639 --> 0:03:12.880 how he'sactly. He's feeling like. 0:03:12.880 --> 0:03:16.360 To him, their favorites like whenever they're at all to him, 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:19.519 just hey, whenever you see Steelers plus anything, just think 0:03:19.560 --> 0:03:22.160 of it as, oh, they're favorite. I need I should 0:03:22.240 --> 0:03:25.360 actually I should actually take display because this is the 0:03:25.360 --> 0:03:27.880 spy you want to give him in. This is amazing ericson, 0:03:27.960 --> 0:03:28.840 it's so fun. 0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:29.720 This is a holiday. 0:03:30.240 --> 0:03:34.000 Yes, it is a very enjoyable week of holiday goodness. 0:03:34.000 --> 0:03:36.520 And yeah, back in Mike Tomlin as a road underdog. Look, 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:38.960 the Bengals have been terrible at home this year. They 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:41.120 haven't covered the spread and for their last five home games, 0:03:41.200 --> 0:03:43.400 one and four straight up at home this year. So 0:03:43.680 --> 0:03:45.720 I don't think there's really any home field advantage for 0:03:45.800 --> 0:03:47.440 the Cincinnati Bengals. I think that's kind of where you're 0:03:47.440 --> 0:03:49.280 seeing this three point line come from. Oh, well, the 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:51.360 Bank's playing at home. Well, they're not good at home. 0:03:51.400 --> 0:03:53.920 They're not good overall. They still don't have a defense. 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:56.440 And I think that this is just the market holding 0:03:56.480 --> 0:03:59.200 on to the preseason narratives and the Bengals offense and 0:03:59.280 --> 0:04:01.000 oh well, little try and around they run the table 0:04:01.080 --> 0:04:02.720 kind of like Furman said, It's like and we did 0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:04.160 the same thing. The market was doing the same thing 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:04.640 with the Jets. 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:06.240 Oh they'll figure it out, and. 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:09.480 They were favored week after week after week, and then 0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:12.560 they just kept losing games every single time. And yes, 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:14.640 I don't think that the Bengals are as much of 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:17.280 dysfunction as the Jets, but I mean they're one of 0:04:17.279 --> 0:04:18.960 the other teams at the Patriots beat this year, right, 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:21.159 Like that's how you know your dysfunctional team when you 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:23.680 lose to Joe and I and our Patriots. So yeah, 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:26.719 give me the Steelers plus three again. I got plenty 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:28.799 of Bengals future. So if I'm wrong. I'll be happy 0:04:28.839 --> 0:04:31.000 with it, but right now I'm gonna hedge my bets 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:32.320 and take this still. 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:34.960 To lead the league in passing such analysis actually still 0:04:35.040 --> 0:04:37.080 still in play, believe it or not. For how bad 0:04:37.120 --> 0:04:38.000 this team is like. 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:40.680 That, well, I mean, look, Joe Burrow has been okay, 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:44.080 it's not his fault. I can't blame Joe Burrow. Speaking 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:46.760 of our Patriots, let's get to that game next Patriots 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:48.359 and Colts. This one's gonna be in New England, and 0:04:48.440 --> 0:04:52.080 because of the shortened holiday week, Best Bets today is 0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:54.520 also not just games like we usually do, the three 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:56.320 of us, but also some props to and Torell. You've 0:04:56.320 --> 0:04:58.480 got a prop on Drake May which is a prop 0:04:58.520 --> 0:05:00.800 that we've been in on a lot, and it's the 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:03.040 rushing yard shoutal and it's twenty six and a half 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:04.520 this week and it's the over Why do you think 0:05:04.520 --> 0:05:05.760 it's gonna go over this weekend? 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:08.039 Because he has the matchup. I think he has a 0:05:08.080 --> 0:05:10.840 really good matchup going up against the Indianapolis Colts. First 0:05:10.880 --> 0:05:12.120 of all, I think this is going to be a 0:05:12.120 --> 0:05:16.320 get up game for the Patriots overall, because guess what, Oh, 0:05:16.360 --> 0:05:21.680 it's back it's back the biting kneecaps trend of teams 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:25.279 playing the Lions and they're not covering the next week. 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:29.400 I mean, this is this is a test. This is 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:31.680 a trend that has the test of time thus far. 0:05:31.920 --> 0:05:35.520 And nonetheless I like it here. I like it the 0:05:35.600 --> 0:05:38.120 fact that how do they win? So if I think 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:40.680 that the Patriots are in this game, it's just that 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:42.599 Drake May is just going to be a baller and 0:05:42.640 --> 0:05:44.760 I think that he actually shows a lot of promise. 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:47.160 Like I think him and bow Knicks actually are very 0:05:47.160 --> 0:05:48.880 comparable in how they play on the season. Is just 0:05:48.880 --> 0:05:51.200 the fact that bo Nicks has Sean Payton and Drake 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:51.800 May doesn't. 0:05:51.960 --> 0:05:52.720 And that's really it. 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:56.080 Like if Sean Payton had Drake May, I think Drake 0:05:56.080 --> 0:05:58.200 May we look like bow Knicks right now. And so 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:01.799 what do rookie quarterback do when they're feeling the pressure, 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:04.839 they're feeling everything coming down on them on their team 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:08.159 and everything they do and their mobile They run, run, 0:06:08.360 --> 0:06:11.119 run run. Look at what the Colts have done against 0:06:11.200 --> 0:06:13.919 running quarterbacks this season, and they actually kind of struggle. 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:16.679 They've given up this prop to Josh Allen, They've given 0:06:16.839 --> 0:06:18.880 they almost gave it up to Snoop Huntly, believe it 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:21.480 or not, gave it up to Justin Fields, and they 0:06:22.160 --> 0:06:24.560 gave it up to Leak Willis, So they're not good 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:26.839 against the rushing quarterback. They gave up two touchdowns to 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:28.920 Kyler Murray and they also gave up a touchdown to 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:31.559 Josh Allen. I think that a touchdown is in play. 0:06:31.760 --> 0:06:33.919 I think you take the rushing yards and you ladder 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:36.040 them up because he's gonna be running for his life 0:06:36.080 --> 0:06:38.080 and whenever he can't make a decision with the football, 0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:39.920 he's just gonna take off. And I think that's what 0:06:39.960 --> 0:06:41.520 he's gonna do, and that's what's gonna win them the 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:44.240 game because he continues to keep drives going. So I'm 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:46.600 really all in on the Patriots today, but I think 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:48.480 it's because of Jake May So. I took Drake may props. 0:06:49.320 --> 0:06:51.400 All right, let's get to the game itself. The over 0:06:51.560 --> 0:06:53.520 under for this game is forty two and a half undertaker, 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:54.640 where do you want to live on this one? 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:58.240 Well, I'm going to this game, so I I'm not 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:00.640 gonna be sitting in the stands hoping that nobody scores. 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:04.359 That's the worst way I could potentially have an enjoyable 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:06.760 Sunday afternoon. So I'm taking the over in this game 0:07:06.800 --> 0:07:09.080 because that's one thing that I have seen with this 0:07:09.120 --> 0:07:10.760 Patriots team that I don't think that the books have 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:13.320 still caught up on. This Patriots defense is so bad 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:17.280 it is horrible. Patriots at home this year four and 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:21.320 one towards the over. Drake May his three home starts, 0:07:21.360 --> 0:07:24.080 three and zero towards the over. They have one good 0:07:24.080 --> 0:07:26.520 player on defense. His name is Chritickanzalez. Christian Barmer also 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:28.080 a good player, but he's still coming back from his 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:29.680 blood caught injury, so I don't think he's had one 0:07:29.720 --> 0:07:32.160 hundred percent. Cans also go on Michael Pittman, and then 0:07:32.200 --> 0:07:35.400 it's going to be a freestyle between Alec peers Ath 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:38.080 and I Mitchell making big plays down the field. Jonathan Taylor, 0:07:38.240 --> 0:07:41.600 Anthony Richardson, Joe, how many times how many Cam Newton 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:43.360 highlights you need to rewatch in our heads to know 0:07:43.400 --> 0:07:46.000 that this Patriots defense traditionally has never been able to 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:48.360 stop mobile quarterbacks. The last one of the last Patriots 0:07:48.360 --> 0:07:50.920 games I went to, one of the last Patriots games 0:07:50.920 --> 0:07:53.080 I went to, was because again they also play a 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:55.520 lot of man coverage, so that really feeds into mobile 0:07:55.560 --> 0:07:58.520 quarterbacks getting loose against this defense. One of the games 0:07:58.520 --> 0:08:00.320 I went to a couple of years ago was Monday 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:02.280 night game against the Bears justin Fields with the Star 0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:03.440 Patriots are a massive home. 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:06.880 Oh yeah, that one destroyed. 0:08:07.560 --> 0:08:08.320 Cam Newton game. 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:10.480 I mean that game. I think was that that game too? 0:08:10.560 --> 0:08:13.120 So yeah, the Fields one is well, maybe you shouldn't 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:15.920 go this weekend. Like I'm just saying maybe. And it's 0:08:15.960 --> 0:08:18.200 another rushing quarterback with Anthony Richardson. Why do you go 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:20.920 to these games with quarter don't you play the games 0:08:20.960 --> 0:08:21.280 the goats. 0:08:21.720 --> 0:08:23.560 I don't care if they win. I want them to lose, 0:08:23.920 --> 0:08:25.760 but I want to have fun. We want them to 0:08:25.920 --> 0:08:28.400 watch the game. Yeah, and again let's will cover the spread, 0:08:28.520 --> 0:08:32.080 like Chrell said, because of the honoluluflu. So yeah, we'll 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:33.160 be happy at the end of the day. It'll be 0:08:33.160 --> 0:08:34.920 a fun game if they end up losing. So but 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:37.400 for me, I'm gonna go with the over. What is 0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:41.240 it at forty forty two and a half? Yeah? Over easy. 0:08:41.440 --> 0:08:43.920 There you go. Another fun thing is our discord betting 0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:46.280 pros dot com slash chat, So if you're looking up 0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:48.400 your game, go join for free betting pros dot com 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:50.840 slash chat. That's our discord and if you join our 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:54.240 community get extra picks there from Matt Perrault. You also 0:08:54.360 --> 0:08:57.960 get some spectacular insights to a lot of wagering too. 0:08:58.040 --> 0:08:59.599 Is a really cool community people, so make sure you 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:01.520 go out there and join that and don't forget. You 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:03.640 can also make your picks count, not just your bets, 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:07.480 but just picks even if gambling is not available or 0:09:07.520 --> 0:09:10.880 sports wagering in your current state. That's okay. If you 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:12.640 download the Betting Pros app and you go to betting 0:09:12.640 --> 0:09:15.520 pros dot com slash NFL contest or just go to 0:09:15.559 --> 0:09:17.800 the NFL contest on the community tab on the app, 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:20.040 you can go ahead and sink your picks. Use the 0:09:20.120 --> 0:09:21.959 quick pick feature on the Betting Pros app and you 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:24.199 get a chance to win weekly and monthly prizes. And 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:27.200 last time I checked, a new month is starting in December, 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:29.679 so this is the time to get in on that. 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:32.640 So again, Betting pros dot Com slash NFL contest to 0:09:32.720 --> 0:09:35.559 make your picks count, Terrell, let's make another pick count. Here. 0:09:35.640 --> 0:09:38.280 The Chargers are going against one of your favorite teams, 0:09:38.320 --> 0:09:40.959 the Atlanta Falcons. What could go wrong? And the Atlanta 0:09:41.000 --> 0:09:43.760 Falcons are at home coming off of buye and it 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:46.600 looks like the Chargers are not going to have JK. 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:49.160 Dobbins doing with a knee issue. So I don't know 0:09:49.160 --> 0:09:51.240 if that changes the dynamic of your thought process or 0:09:51.360 --> 0:09:54.480 you just Chargers all day no matter what against the Falcons. 0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:58.160 Yeah, it actually did change the dynamic of our thought process. Nonetheless, 0:09:58.440 --> 0:10:01.520 I don't think the Falcons are team. I am very 0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:04.319 I think that the fall is about to come. I 0:10:04.440 --> 0:10:06.640 think that the Bucks are going to find themselves somehow, 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:09.079 some way leading the division at the end of the year. 0:10:09.720 --> 0:10:13.840 And unfortunately, the Chargers' offense just gives me so much 0:10:13.880 --> 0:10:16.199 cost concern because they have so many people that just 0:10:16.240 --> 0:10:22.400 can't catch the ball. And Quentin Johnson, you just I 0:10:22.559 --> 0:10:26.040 understand your NFL talent and you are one of the 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:28.480 top football players in the world. Yes you are, but 0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:33.559 compared to your peers, you suck. And I really just 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:35.120 need you to catch the ball, like I just, I 0:10:35.320 --> 0:10:36.920 really really need you to catch the ball. You're great, 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:39.720 You're an amazing player compared to the rest of the world, 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:42.280 but compared to your peers, you're not there. 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:42.520 Man. 0:10:42.920 --> 0:10:45.720 And nonetheless, give me the Falcons team total under twenty 0:10:45.760 --> 0:10:48.600 three and a half because I don't think they're gonna 0:10:48.600 --> 0:10:50.040 be able to score. I don't think they're gonna be 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:52.080 able to put up points. By the way, the only 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:54.040 time that teams have scored on this Charger team was 0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:56.080 the last two weeks when they played the Ravens, who 0:10:56.160 --> 0:11:00.640 have an MVP leader Lamar Jackson, and the Bengals who 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:02.920 have Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow, who's leading the league 0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:05.599 in past such shows. So I think that this is 0:11:05.640 --> 0:11:08.240 a good spot for a bounce back for the Chargers 0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:11.800 to step up defensively. Slight concern for the rest advantage 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:13.480 that the Falcons have here, but at the end of 0:11:13.559 --> 0:11:15.959 the day, I don't think the Falcons really actually do 0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:18.480 anything good on offense. They just kind of nickel and 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:20.760 dime their way through these games and figure it out 0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:23.360 and then somehow fall out with the win. And so 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:26.319 if they even surprise me and get a win here 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:28.760 against the Chargers, I don't think they're putting up twenty 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:30.199 four points to do so. I think it's going to 0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:32.280 be an ugly game and where the Chargers can't score 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:37.400 and they somehow someway lose a nasty kind of seventeen, fourteen, 0:11:37.600 --> 0:11:40.679 twenty seventeen type of game like they did against the Cardinals. 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:43.760 So yeah, give me Falcons team to under twenty three 0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:45.200 and a half. Regardless of what happens. I don't think 0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:45.760 they get over this. 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:48.079 I think the one thing that did happen was the 0:11:48.320 --> 0:11:51.679 Justin Herbert post game press conference last week where he 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:53.320 just like took the burden. He's like, well, I gotta 0:11:53.320 --> 0:11:54.920 throw better balls and this and that, and you know what, 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:57.840 that's what leadership looks like. From the quarterback position. Aaron 0:11:57.920 --> 0:12:01.000 Rodgers should take a page out of Justin Herbert's book 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:03.760 and some other quarterbacks in this league too. That's that's 0:12:03.800 --> 0:12:05.599 what it looks like. That's what leadership looks like. He 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:09.800 knows that Quentin Johnston failed. Everybody knows, everybody with eyes knows. 0:12:10.240 --> 0:12:12.559 But what leadership does is you don't let those guys 0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:14.439 just get dogged out there. You go in front and 0:12:14.440 --> 0:12:16.240 you say, hey, you know, we're all responsible win as 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:18.880 the team we loses. All that platitude and cliche nonsense 0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:20.600 gets fine, goes a long way in that locker room. 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:22.640 That's what you're looking for in leadership. And I love 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:24.319 that you saw that ad justin Herbert, because I think 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:26.680 sometimes we get a sense that Herbert is a little 0:12:26.720 --> 0:12:28.559 bit of a you know, kind of a Nella personality. 0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:30.839 I like that. I like that a lot. And I 0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:32.920 don't know if that's like maybe some hardball stuff rubbing 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:34.520 off on him a little bit, but whatever it was, 0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:37.320 I really liked it, and that bodes well. 0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:40.160 For him in the future with this team hashtag right line. 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:44.120 Yeah yeah, all right, let's get to your next pick here, 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:46.920 number three for you, Andrew Erickson, and you're in. 0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:48.400 On by the way, love this pick? 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:51.400 Oh yeah, So let's let's set it up here. Jacksonville 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:55.920 Jaguars at home, four and a half point underdogs. Houston 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:58.840 Texans continued to struggle. I gotta say this was one 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:00.240 that I was kind of looking at. He was like, 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:02.840 do I believe in the Jaguars enough for an upset? 0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:05.480 I don't know. But you're in on the five and 0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:07.439 you're getting that number on betting Pros. Again, this is 0:13:07.520 --> 0:13:11.080 why you shop the lines on VP on the app. 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:13.280 So let's talk about this one. What do you see 0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:15.319 here where you're a little worried about that Texans? And 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:17.160 then again in one of these division games where we've 0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:20.240 seen this year. These Indivision games get real free game. 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:22.560 Well, the Texans just can't cover the spread as favorites. 0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:25.120 Like they're just the one of the most overrated teams 0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:27.960 since the beginning of last year, basically once CJ. Stroud 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:30.880 kind of got into the spotlight. Just been too much 0:13:30.880 --> 0:13:33.000 attention on them, and they've been overrated ever since. They 0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:34.480 failed to cover the spread in six of their last 0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:38.080 thirteen games as favorites. So for me, it's looking at 0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:40.480 I guess divisional matchup. They're playing on the road. We 0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:42.920 already saw this matchup play out the season, and the 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:45.360 Jaguars covered. They covered the six point spread. They lost 0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:47.120 by four points, but that was a four point game 0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:50.000 heading into the fourth quarter, and we look at that 0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:53.800 specific matchup. The game went in the first half, they 0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:56.160 scored their three of their first four drives, and then 0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:58.760 they punted five straight times in the second half before scoring. 0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:00.719 They needed a game winning touch down to beat the 0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:04.520 Jaguars at home. So now I'm getting points with Jacksonville 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:07.040 at home. Again. This is under the presumption that Trevor 0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:09.640 Lawrence is playing. He's practicing this week, so I'm assuming 0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:10.760 that he's gonna I don't want to. I'm not doing 0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:12.480 the Mac Johnson anymore. We're not doing that. But if 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:15.560 it is Trevor Lawrence under center, I feel confident about 0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:18.240 him covering this spread. I mean, honestly, as I was 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:20.440 writing up this game, I opened, Okay, Texas Bro's gonna 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:22.440 win this game, but I think jag warl is covered. 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:24.640 And then as I dove more into it, I'm like, dude, 0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:27.640 Jacksonville can win this game. I just said that Texas 0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:29.480 have so many problems up and down. I get that 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:31.560 they have a good defense, but their offense is just 0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:34.520 a mess right now. And yeah, I get the Jaguars 0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:36.760 defense isn't good, but they're playing at home in the 0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:39.960 Jaguars seven to two against the spread as home underdogs, 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:42.200 like they've been a team. When you're looking at just 0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:44.240 the trends, do you want to back the Texans as 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:47.200 road favorites or the Jaguars at home underdogs. It's home 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:49.960 underdogs for the Jacksonville Jaguars. So I will say, though 0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:52.440 I have to bring this to the table because Furman 0:14:52.520 --> 0:14:54.800 mentioned it. The Honoluluflu is still in play here for 0:14:54.840 --> 0:14:57.880 the Jaguars, unfortunately, which I didn't actually think about because 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:00.440 it has even gone over by weeks. We look at 0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:02.160 the Dallas Cowboys when they played the lines, they had 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:03.840 a bio and they got destroyed the next week too. 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:06.880 Oh my god, what still it survives? 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:11.120 We dear Lord, I made mine. 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:14.000 But yeah, other than that, everything else checks out for 0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:15.760 the Jaguars to cover the spread at home. 0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:18.840 So the reason I didn't get on this, and it's 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:22.360 because it's just a flowchart game. The Jags haven't beat 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:26.440 the Texans at home since twenty seventeen. There's a lot 0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:31.160 of bad Texas teams from twenty seventeen, so now they 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:33.440 haven't beaten them at home since twenty seventeen. That's the 0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:35.120 only reason I couldn't get there on this play. 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:38.160 But love the play. Yeah, Torell, your next pick is 0:15:38.360 --> 0:15:40.240 my lock of the week and you're still getting plus 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:42.440 money on it, and I love it. The way you 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:45.320 attack the Ravens is through the air, and that Ravens 0:15:45.360 --> 0:15:49.080 Eagles matchup is staring us in the face. It's going 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:51.000 to be a very exciting, fun game. Who knows, could 0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:53.600 even be a Super Bowl preview. We'll see. But you're 0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:55.560 going with a touchdown call, And again, I think this 0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:56.760 was an absolute lock. 0:15:57.520 --> 0:15:59.960 Yeah, as much as I hate the Eagles, AJ Brown 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:02.480 gets an end zone. Eagles are really really good with 0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:06.120 AJ Brown in lineup. AJ Brown is going to torch 0:16:06.280 --> 0:16:09.360 the little Ravens here, who they haven't made any moves, 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:11.240 and it's probably because they don't have any moves to 0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:14.760 make and they don't really have another scheme. And that's 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:17.920 where the issue is. Where these coordinators get jobs and 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:20.520 lead teams and you're you're looking and see what the 0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:23.800 new coordinator is doing and how they fix these mistakes, 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:25.640 and it just doesn't seem like they're doing anything to 0:16:25.680 --> 0:16:28.520 fix the secondary right now, Like they're just content on 0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:31.600 the secondary being bad and hoping that Lamar Jackson's office 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:34.280 can kind of bail them out. And so nonetheless, if 0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:36.000 you're gonna do that, that's fine. But AJ Brown is 0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:38.920 one hundred percent getting that touchdown, Like that's just go 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:42.080 ahead and shock AJ Brown, Mike Evans. Those are two 0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:44.640 guys that you don't care about the matchup, whether it's 0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:46.400 good or bad. You're like, oh, yeah, they're probably gonna 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:48.480 find the en zone at some point, and so yeah, 0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:51.680 I love a big AJ Brown game, believe it or not. 0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:54.040 AJ Brown is also in like the top ten in 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:56.320 terms of MVP odds, So I think that this is 0:16:56.360 --> 0:16:58.720