1 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. 2 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Hallaway. So, Tracy, we 3 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:23,800 Speaker 1: kind of have an extremely timely episode today given the news. 4 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 1: This is going to be one of those episodes where 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 1: we have to definitely make sure that we say what 6 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 1: day we are recording and what time. But it's Job's day. 7 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: It's Job's day, that's right. It's July two twenty, so 8 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 1: depending on when you're listening to this, take that into account. 9 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 1: And just about thirty minutes ago, we got the June 10 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 1: jobs report, and at least on the headline measures, it 11 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: was definitely better than expected. Yeah, I'm looking at those now. 12 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 1: So we have four point eight million jobs added versus 13 00:00:56,400 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: expectations of what was three points some thing, do you remember, Joe, Yeah, 14 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 1: three point two million, three point two million. Yeah, so 15 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 1: a huge beat on the expectations. And uh, I'm looking 16 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 1: at the chart. I know you've been debating about how 17 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 1: best to chart all these various economic indicators, but you 18 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 1: know it looks like a v if you just sort 19 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 1: of look at the pure headline. I mean it is 20 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:26,279 Speaker 1: jobs are coming back sooner than expected, I would say, 21 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 1: and faster than expected. But of course there's all kinds 22 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: of caveats in there, including the fact that most of 23 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 1: these uh, the snapshot of the economy was taken prior 24 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 1: to this re acceleration of the virus. So of course 25 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: there's a in the US anyway. UM, so there's a 26 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 1: sense in which this is dated. Also, you know, you 27 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 1: have to look at permanent job losses, which continue to 28 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 1: rise even as uh the total job losses continue to 29 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 1: come down. So I think, like you know, on the headline, 30 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 1: it's good, it's good that the unemploy him at rate 31 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 1: is already backed down to eleven. That's still worse than 32 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: it ever was during the Great Financial Crisis. Like, you know, 33 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: let's hopefully the the headline trend continued. So for now, 34 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: I guess that's that's hopeful news. I mean, I do 35 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: think there's a sense that unemployment is becoming obviously more 36 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 1: of an issue. Like we are expecting the virus to 37 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: re emerge at various points in time until we get 38 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 1: a vaccine, we're expecting multiple waves of infections, and that means, 39 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 1: you know, whenever the government orders people to stay confined 40 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 1: or stay in lockdown, that we are probably going to 41 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 1: see a hit to employment, and it's not through anyone's 42 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 1: faults per se. It's basically policy ordained unemployment, and so 43 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 1: we as an economy or society need to start talking 44 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: about that and how we kind of figure it out absolutely, 45 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:56,640 Speaker 1: and this really sort of like gets to the key things. 46 00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 1: So it's like, we have these mets even if it's 47 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 1: getting better, and it is, we have this massively high 48 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: unemployment rate. We had a massively high unemployment rate just 49 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 1: a decade ago, and we went between the last crisis 50 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 1: in this one, we had elevated unemployment on a historical 51 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 1: basis up until extremely recently, like maybe like en we 52 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 1: might have been close to what economists might call full employment. 53 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 1: So that's a very nebulous term. But there is this 54 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 1: permanent feature, it seems, of these economy and arguably even 55 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: going back to uh the post dot com era as well, 56 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 1: when when they first when the term jobless recovery first 57 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 1: started talking that like underemployment or elevated unemployment seems to 58 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: be a more or less permanent feature of the economy, 59 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 1: and periods of when we could say anyone can get 60 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 1: a job who wants one seemed to be depressingly rare 61 00:03:56,800 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: crisis or no crisis. You mentioned full in empoyment there, 62 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 1: and I mean, as you point out that in itself 63 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 1: is kind of a weird idea. You know, the notion 64 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: that because we have an unemployment rate at something like 65 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: three or four percent, that we're at full employment even 66 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 1: though millions of people still don't have jobs. It's it's 67 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 1: kind of funny that that's the accepted norm. And again, 68 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 1: I think one of the things about the coronavirus crisis 69 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,919 Speaker 1: is one of the unique things about the crisis is 70 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 1: that it is opening up these bigger conversations about what 71 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 1: employment should mean. Yeah, totally. And also, like even prior 72 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 1: to the crisis, economists needed to do some soul searching 73 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 1: because you know, we got down to some four percent 74 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 1: unemployment as recently as earlier this year, but there was 75 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: a point you know, in seventeen or sixteen and like, oh, 76 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: unemployment camp go below five percent, then it went below 77 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: that's like uneppoyment campo. And we never got to associate 78 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: with surgeon inflation. So they're just all kinds of reasons 79 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 1: to just sort of rethink employment in this country or 80 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 1: in any economy and what we're capable of and how 81 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:10,599 Speaker 1: many people are left behind unemployed, unemployed, uh, in jobs 82 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 1: that don't pay them well, even during the so called 83 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:17,480 Speaker 1: boom time. All right, well, let's do some rethinking around 84 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: jobs now and then who do we have on So 85 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 1: I'm very excited we have a guest today who I 86 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 1: wanted to talk to for a long time. She is 87 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:29,680 Speaker 1: an associate professor and director of the economics program at 88 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:33,840 Speaker 1: our College. She's also a fellow at the Levy Institute. 89 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 1: She's also the author of a new book called The 90 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 1: Case for a Job Guarantee. And Uh. Our guest is 91 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 1: Pavilina Cherniva. She is out with this new book and 92 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:49,599 Speaker 1: we're going to talk about the Job Guaranteed. So, Pavilina, 93 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 1: thank you very much for joining us. Good to be 94 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 1: with you. Hi, Tracy, Hi Joe, Pavilina. You know, obviously 95 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: modern monetary theory MMT a lot of attention paid to it, 96 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 1: especially in recent years, especially now people rethinking the potential 97 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 1: for fiscal sustainability. But one big component of it which 98 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,919 Speaker 1: probably has gotten a lot less attention. There are at 99 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 1: least certain people within the sort of m m T 100 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:21,280 Speaker 1: sphere who think that an important aspect of it is 101 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 1: essentially targeting the unemployment rate directly, that the unemployment rate 102 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:31,160 Speaker 1: itself currently eleven point one percent, is a policy choice, 103 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:36,599 Speaker 1: and that the government can essentially guarantee everyone a job 104 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: if they like. So talk to us about how the job, 105 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 1: what the job guarantee is first of all, and how 106 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 1: it fits into the MMT world. Yeah, thanks, I really 107 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 1: like how Tracy put it in the introduction policy ordained unemployment. 108 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: So in COVID it's pretty straightforward because you know, we 109 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:03,280 Speaker 1: had to close down businesses, we have to shut our 110 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: many sectors, and we're told to go home. So that 111 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 1: was a very explicit, if you will, policy guidance, and 112 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 1: we saw a spike in unemployment. But most people probably 113 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: don't think about it this way in normal times that 114 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 1: actually we have unemployment as a perennial feature in the 115 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:27,239 Speaker 1: economy and the fact that it's positive unemployment is again 116 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:31,240 Speaker 1: policy ordained. So you know, there are various ways in 117 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 1: which you could look at this. I mean, the one is, 118 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: of course, the niro, the nebulous term that Joe was 119 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 1: referring to. That is this idea, this notion that there 120 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 1: is some optimal level of unemployment that would be consistent 121 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 1: with price stability. And you know, we've watched this conversation 122 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:51,119 Speaker 1: evolved even over the last few months before COVID, where 123 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 1: the FED was questioning the nature of the NIHRO, questioning 124 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 1: whether there there is such a relationship, or if it 125 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: has broken down, or whether keven a causal relationships. So basically, 126 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 1: we don't know. We we don't really know what that 127 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: low level of unemployment is that won't trigger inflation, and 128 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: it turns out we can go even lower than what 129 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 1: we thought before. So but what's important about this is 130 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 1: that the NIRO for a long time has been used 131 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 1: as a policy guide nish what does NIU stand for? Again, 132 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 1: always forget the NIUS the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. 133 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 1: It's the level of employment that might be consistent with 134 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:34,319 Speaker 1: stable prices. And because we know the FED has a 135 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:38,959 Speaker 1: dual mandate to keep price stability and maximum employment or 136 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 1: achieve price stability and maximum employment, and so that the 137 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 1: theoretical and this so called empirical term is his concept 138 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:51,719 Speaker 1: is the NIRO. But what's interesting about that is that 139 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 1: it is used as a policy guide. You know, like 140 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 1: models have some NIRO number where if the unemployment rate 141 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 1: the act to unemployment rate breaches that number, then the 142 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 1: models might indicate some price, increased wage inflation, et cetera. 143 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 1: The thing is that it is this concept exists only 144 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 1: for unemployment. We don't have a concept like this for 145 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 1: any other economic phenomena out there. Right, we don't talk 146 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 1: about a natural rate of hunger, a natural rate of homelessness, 147 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 1: and natural rate of illiteracy. Right. We only for unemployment 148 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: we do that, and so it's actually sanctioned. Positive level 149 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 1: of unemployment is sanctioned by policy. And then on the 150 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 1: fiscal side, we do a whole bunch of fiscal policies 151 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 1: in the name of job creation. But as you were 152 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 1: saying at the beginning, we never have enough employment opportunities 153 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 1: for all people who are looking for work. So it's 154 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 1: really a policy ordained unemployment rate. As of what M 155 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: m T says and what the job guarantees says is that, well, 156 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: the unemployed are already the charge and the responsibility of 157 00:09:56,080 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 1: the public sector. The unemployed are already they already required 158 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:04,439 Speaker 1: various forms of assistance. But also unemployment in and of 159 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 1: itself inflicts high costs on the economy. So unemployment is 160 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:10,839 Speaker 1: paid for, so to speak. So the job guarantee is 161 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 1: a better way of dealing with unemployment by simply are 162 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: employing the unemployee and expending public money for direct hiring 163 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 1: to both stem all of these various costs of unemployment, 164 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:31,680 Speaker 1: reduce existing financial and real costs, and create from something 165 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 1: of social varcument. So, just to ask a really basic question, 166 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:55,080 Speaker 1: but when we talk about jobs guarantee, what do we 167 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 1: mean exactly? And I mean, I'm aware there are different 168 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 1: iterations of how this might work, but how do you 169 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:04,839 Speaker 1: specifically think about it? I just think of it as 170 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 1: a public employment option. So if if, for example, somebody 171 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 1: walks into an unemployment office, you know, they can get 172 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: a whole lot of assistance, unemployment insurance, help with their resume, coaching, 173 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:26,599 Speaker 1: interview skills, but they cannot get a job, you know, 174 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 1: and they apply and the apply and apply. So if 175 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: if we had devised the system where they will be 176 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 1: on standby, a a program that will create employment opportunities 177 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: in the locality, in public service, where somebody can go 178 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 1: into the unemployment office if they have not been able 179 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 1: to find a job elsewhere in the economy, they will 180 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 1: be always an option. They're guaranteed at a base living wage. 181 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 1: So it's a it's a basic job option, and you know, 182 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 1: the philosophy behind it is there. There are many ways 183 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 1: to rationalize, but think of it this way. You know, 184 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 1: when when somebody doesn't have education, we guarantee it, right, 185 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:08,520 Speaker 1: they guarantee to seek in the public school. If somebody 186 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 1: doesn't have access to retirement security, right, we guarantee it 187 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: through social security. If you are food insecure, you know, 188 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: we guarantee food stamps. I mean, you know there are 189 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 1: there are these programs can be made better or you know, 190 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:25,959 Speaker 1: it depends how you think about them. But we tend 191 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 1: to have this kind of straight solution to these various 192 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 1: forms of economic and security. But for unemployment, when the 193 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:36,840 Speaker 1: problem is the absence of a job, we don't actually 194 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 1: provide the job. So that's what the job variant people do. 195 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 1: So this gets too sort of an interesting I don't 196 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,840 Speaker 1: know if it's a philosophical question or probably is philosophical, 197 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 1: but it's also of course economic. Is that the what 198 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 1: you make a distinction implicitly between job laws and income 199 00:12:56,480 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 1: loss for losing it from losing a job, because if 200 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 1: it's just a matter of the lost income, then in 201 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: theory you could say Okay, we could have an unemployment 202 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:09,839 Speaker 1: insurance program that doesn't run out as long as you're 203 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 1: looking for a job, and it uh covers your entire 204 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 1: salary or some sort of like essentially a basic income. 205 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 1: So the question is why, in your view does it 206 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 1: make more sense for the government to guarantee people a 207 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 1: job as opposed to just lost income. Well, I should 208 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 1: make it clear that it's not a displacement for income 209 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:36,840 Speaker 1: support the job guaranty, and it's a new program, an 210 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 1: additional program. But it's true unemployment is brings higher costs 211 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 1: beyond just the loss of income. And we macro economists 212 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: don't really think about this very much, but even the 213 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:54,960 Speaker 1: cognitive sciences psychologists think about this a fair amount. And 214 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 1: there's really good work that is documenting the impact of 215 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: unemployment on not just the unemployed but their families and communities. 216 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 1: So economist talk about scarring effects. You know, we talked 217 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 1: about the loss of income, and so unemployment insurance essentially 218 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 1: attempts to patch that up. But we know even with 219 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 1: unemployment insurance, your lifetime income is permanently lower as the 220 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 1: result of unemployment. But also you start losing these other 221 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 1: non tangibles, like for example, the social networks that you 222 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 1: rely on to get the job. They're also physical mental 223 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 1: health costs that are experienced not just by a person 224 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 1: who's lost their job, but their spouses, their children. There's 225 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 1: impact on growth standing something we talk about unemployment being 226 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 1: literally deadly, and so just interventions that just focus on 227 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 1: income alone just they are not going to be enough. 228 00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 1: I'm not you know, they're they're the right thing to do. 229 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: We need to provide income support for people who lost 230 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 1: their employment opportunity, but that is really just very minimum 231 00:14:56,720 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 1: we could be doing. And what we know also from 232 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 1: even experiments that run you know, basic income programs, we 233 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 1: know that people still look for jobs. So if we 234 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 1: live in an economy that guarantees unemployment, right as you said, 235 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 1: it's a perennial feature of the economy. If we live 236 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 1: in that kind of macroeconomic framework, then you are assured 237 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 1: that people will not be able to find employment, even 238 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 1: if we provide income and if if they if they 239 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 1: seek employment. So it's it's just fixing this this one 240 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 1: gap in the macro economic package. How did jobs guarantee 241 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 1: change the behavior of private sector firms? Do you do 242 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 1: you think, for instance, that they'd be competing for the 243 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 1: same pool of labor and therefore might have to raise 244 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: their own wages, or do you think there's sort of 245 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:53,200 Speaker 1: two different pools of job seekers. Well, I think that 246 00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 1: the net effect um will be positive, and I can 247 00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:00,080 Speaker 1: talk a little bit about a macro model that we 248 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 1: had developed the Leave Economics Institute. What's important, I think 249 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 1: to notice is that the private sector doesn't really like 250 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 1: to hire the unemployed, right. We have this odd paradox 251 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 1: that firms, you know, prefer people that have work experience, 252 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 1: that have shorter gaps in their resumes. They like to 253 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 1: poach from their competitors. And what ends up happening is 254 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:28,119 Speaker 1: those who are trapped in unemployment, especially long term unemployment, 255 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 1: are the last ones to get hired. And there's recent 256 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 1: research that was very good that came out on what 257 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: firms did after the Great Recession. They change the rules 258 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 1: of the game. The low and the unemployment rate fell, 259 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 1: the higher their criteria for hiring. So it's a bit 260 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 1: of a stack game for those who are really last hired. 261 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 1: And what the job guarantee essentially would do is provide 262 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 1: those unemployment employment opportunities for for folks who have the 263 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 1: hardest time. You know, catching on this job's train and 264 00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 1: those tend to be people with disabilities, people of color, 265 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:10,959 Speaker 1: you know, for my inmates, and um, we are going 266 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 1: to provide not just an employment opportunity, but on the 267 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 1: job training experience help with transitioning to the private to 268 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 1: private sector job. So in the net, it will be 269 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 1: a benefit for firms who who basically report this this 270 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:30,760 Speaker 1: this odd paradox we can't find qualified workers, and yet 271 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,160 Speaker 1: we're seeing a lot of unemployed people. So the job 272 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:37,119 Speaker 1: guarantee will will help with that matching problem as well. 273 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 1: And so, but then the other question that you raises, 274 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 1: what about wages? And here COVID is an interesting case. 275 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 1: It has shown us how poorly paid so many people 276 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 1: are in the labor market. And now we're debating whether 277 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: we should be extending this extra six hundred dollar unemployment 278 00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 1: bonus and insurance bonus to protect the unemployed. And you know, 279 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 1: that's really a just a reflection of how many jobs 280 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,680 Speaker 1: just don't provide living income for people. So the aim 281 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:11,959 Speaker 1: and the goal of the job guarantees to provide a basic, 282 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 1: guaranteed minimum wage floor that would be a decent living 283 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: wage for it below which no one will fall and 284 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 1: what will be the impact then on the private sector, Well, 285 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 1: there will be there will be some competition, for sure, 286 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:27,919 Speaker 1: there will be some pressure on the private sector to 287 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:33,359 Speaker 1: match that package, the wage and the benefit package. Now, 288 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 1: you know, should this be Is this going to be 289 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:39,399 Speaker 1: a you know, a very big problem for firms. You know, 290 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 1: it's not it's not really clear. Our model shows that 291 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:46,240 Speaker 1: the Job Guarantee actually permanently increases employment in the private 292 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 1: sector by four million jobs. It shows a permanent increase 293 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 1: in UH in g d P and so you know, overall, 294 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 1: you know, firms are living in a better environment, more sales, 295 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 1: higher profits, so some will be able to you know, 296 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 1: most will be able to match the fifteen dollar an hour. 297 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 1: And you know, we see this with living wage ordinances. 298 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 1: You know, when states or cities passed higher wages than 299 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 1: the official official minimum wage, there will be some firms 300 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 1: who actually rely on very low wages for the existence 301 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 1: and poverty paying wages. And and this the Job Guarantee 302 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 1: basically says, you know, this should not be an afro 303 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: economic condition. We want to assure a firm living wage 304 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 1: for so it's a feature of the program to to 305 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:35,399 Speaker 1: weed out these uh these pay practices heefull. You know, 306 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:38,240 Speaker 1: you know something I have thought about before, and I've 307 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 1: been thinking about it during this crisis is I look 308 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: at the government. I look at the effectiveness of our 309 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 1: state capacity in this country to do things like say, 310 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 1: established testing protocols for COVID or hospitalization or anything else. 311 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 1: And I have to say, like, I'm sort of like 312 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:02,159 Speaker 1: a state pessimist. It does not look like we're particularly 313 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:07,119 Speaker 1: good at provisioning anything in the public and so I'm 314 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,159 Speaker 1: you know, it feels like we're good at cutting checks, 315 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 1: like we could do that if we choose to. How 316 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,879 Speaker 1: do How confident are you or why should we have 317 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 1: confident that a government administered jobs program can work, can 318 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 1: be effective, even if we decide politically we want a 319 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 1: sort of essentially public option for employment, that it would 320 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:31,159 Speaker 1: be just well administered. Yeah, I mean, look, I I 321 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 1: share your frustration, but it's it's not that we are 322 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 1: bad at doing contact tracing. I think we're just not 323 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 1: doing it. Were simply not even attempting to do the 324 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:47,120 Speaker 1: kind of mobilization and all the policies that we need 325 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 1: for this moment. So I think the political obstacles for 326 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:54,600 Speaker 1: sure there, but I don't think that the administrative obstacles 327 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 1: are unsurmountable. So you know, if if we had attempted 328 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 1: and we actually have the political interest in commitment, I 329 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: think that that it's workable. And let's just think of 330 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:09,640 Speaker 1: other things that we prioritize. Our administrative challenges a litmus 331 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:13,120 Speaker 1: test for guaranteed education, you know, they really are not 332 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 1: you know, we we believe that everyone should have a 333 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 1: guaranteed seat in the school, and so we do that, 334 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 1: and then we handle over which schools are better and 335 00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 1: better funded and you know, how should they should be run. 336 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 1: But there is a policy commitment to provide infrastructure and 337 00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:34,200 Speaker 1: ensure those opportunities. So with the job guarantee, we will 338 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 1: have the same sort of idea. I mean, the infrastructure 339 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,879 Speaker 1: is all then, and in my book, I basically argue 340 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 1: that we shouldn't reinvent the wheel. We should use the 341 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 1: institutional capacity that already exists, like the unemployment offices which 342 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 1: are present in every single county across the United States, 343 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:55,680 Speaker 1: and they just need to become genuine employment offices. Public 344 00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 1: service is one thing that has been underfunded. You know, 345 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 1: there's one aspect of the public sector that has been 346 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:06,439 Speaker 1: underfunded for me long time, in part under the guys 347 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:08,920 Speaker 1: that the government you know, is running out of money, 348 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 1: and all of those are the myths that m MT 349 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:15,480 Speaker 1: is attempting to bust. And we have a lot of neglect. 350 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 1: So there are problems to be solved. We have environmental problems. 351 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 1: In short, I think that there's lots and lots that 352 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:26,399 Speaker 1: we can do, and there are groups, communities on the ground, 353 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:31,680 Speaker 1: that on the ground in every community rather that address these. 354 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 1: So the proposal here is not to necessarily reinvent the wheel, 355 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,000 Speaker 1: but just to to do things better and at a 356 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 1: bigger scale, to empower those who are already on the 357 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,199 Speaker 1: ground filling in these these gaps, and just match the 358 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,359 Speaker 1: unemployed with the kind of work that they can do. 359 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,800 Speaker 1: So yes, I have no illusion that like any other program, 360 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:55,400 Speaker 1: this two will have its own administrative and political challenges, 361 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 1: but it hasn't stopped us to do other things we 362 00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 1: think are important. So I think the first step is 363 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 1: is to you know, form a consensus that if somebody 364 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 1: needs a job, they should be able to walk into 365 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 1: an employment office and just get a basic job. I mean, sorry, 366 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,840 Speaker 1: just to press on the political point a little bit. 367 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,880 Speaker 1: You know, the US has a long history of pushing 368 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: back on well, the American public and some parties in particular, 369 00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:23,400 Speaker 1: have a long history of pushing back on any social 370 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:28,639 Speaker 1: welfare program that they think, um might undermine capitalism. And 371 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:32,119 Speaker 1: I imagine that a full job's guarantee is one of 372 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 1: the ones that will automatically trigger, you know, accusations that 373 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 1: we're becoming communists and all of that. How do you 374 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:44,000 Speaker 1: deal with that side of the political debate? And also, 375 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:47,399 Speaker 1: I mean this kind of touches on my biggest criticism 376 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 1: of M m T, which is if we all agree 377 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 1: that whether or not we can afford something isn't really 378 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:57,720 Speaker 1: the constraint, The constraint is political. Then you know, that's 379 00:23:57,720 --> 00:23:59,440 Speaker 1: sort of how things have been for a long time. 380 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:04,200 Speaker 1: So how do you overcome those political barriers? The first 381 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: thing to point out is that actually the job here 382 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,399 Speaker 1: it is, is very popular. You know, we were There 383 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,000 Speaker 1: have been a number of different surveys and I will 384 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 1: admit even I was surprised to see some of the results. 385 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 1: Um it was the Harris Hill survey. There was data 386 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,919 Speaker 1: for Progress survey. They are older surveys and they always 387 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:28,640 Speaker 1: consistently show more than UH support. But the latest one, 388 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:30,159 Speaker 1: even you go off in the UK, they were in 389 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 1: the seventies, so jobs are not a partisan issue. Now, 390 00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,280 Speaker 1: I agree with you that there's always the red herring 391 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:38,720 Speaker 1: of you know, oh, this is, you know, big government takeover. 392 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,639 Speaker 1: The thing to stress here is that the government there 393 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:46,800 Speaker 1: is already big government takeover, and there's already an enormous, 394 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:52,400 Speaker 1: enormous infrastructure that deals with poverty, and much of it 395 00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,120 Speaker 1: which is connected to the problem of unemployment. And so 396 00:24:56,600 --> 00:25:00,200 Speaker 1: the infrastructure is there, the spending is already already where 397 00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:04,919 Speaker 1: we can can do things better by directly going to 398 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 1: the source of the problem. So maybe there's political wrangling, 399 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 1: but some of these social programs are pretty popular, like 400 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 1: social security. You know that once they understand the value 401 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 1: in the benefit of these policies, you know, they defend them. 402 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,160 Speaker 1: So you know, for us, the hurdle is getting there 403 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:23,439 Speaker 1: now I do hear you know this question of you know, 404 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,879 Speaker 1: Soviet Union tried this, and the answer is no, the 405 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 1: Soviet Union didn't try their job guarantee. Soviet Union tried 406 00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,679 Speaker 1: an employee of first resort. The job unantee is an 407 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:37,480 Speaker 1: employer of last resort, and it is a program that 408 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 1: actually uh stabilizes the economy better than unemployment. So it 409 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 1: kind of dances with the with the private sector employment, 410 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 1: you know, and private sector employment declines, job guarantee increases. 411 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:55,840 Speaker 1: So if those aspects understood at the macroeconomic level, that 412 00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 1: doesn't mean that they won't be political hurdles, but we 413 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:02,960 Speaker 1: can begin in at least to rethink how to put 414 00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:07,120 Speaker 1: in place macroeconomic stabilization policies to do the job better. 415 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:10,879 Speaker 1: I mean, I think economists understand where we something is 416 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 1: not working. We have jobless recoveries, and that is not 417 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:18,400 Speaker 1: really kind of a tolerable situation. And we could attempt 418 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:22,240 Speaker 1: to do account of cyclical employment policy. It has been 419 00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,399 Speaker 1: tried even in the United States. We just never really 420 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 1: did it on a permanent basis. You know, we have 421 00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,160 Speaker 1: experienced with direct job creation. We know we can put 422 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,960 Speaker 1: in place projects on short order. But I think that 423 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 1: our thinking has really gone has gone into the more 424 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:45,280 Speaker 1: indirect approaches, the nudges, you know, attempts to incentivize private 425 00:26:45,280 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 1: sector and it hasn't really worked terribly well. You say, 426 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,960 Speaker 1: you know that this is people should not think, oh, 427 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,680 Speaker 1: this is communism or oh this is socialism per se, 428 00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,480 Speaker 1: because it's not trying to be the employer. First resort 429 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,399 Speaker 1: is trying to be the employer of last resort. So 430 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 1: I want to ask you a question specifically about that. 431 00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,679 Speaker 1: You know, we think about the FED it plays a 432 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,879 Speaker 1: role of lender of last resort. But part of the 433 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 1: last resort is that it's implicitly worse than say, the 434 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:32,360 Speaker 1: market option. So if you have to go borrow money 435 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 1: at the FED in the worst case scenario, then you 436 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:39,000 Speaker 1: pay some penalty rate, etcetera. Is the assumption that the 437 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:43,399 Speaker 1: public employment option would be on some level less desirable 438 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,159 Speaker 1: than private sector work. And then just beyond that, like 439 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,000 Speaker 1: what are the jobs? Like? What is what are my options? 440 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,320 Speaker 1: If I'm unemployed and I go to an unemployment office 441 00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,120 Speaker 1: looking for a job. Directly, how do you conceive of 442 00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,760 Speaker 1: what the government can, at any time in any business 443 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:02,840 Speaker 1: cycle put people to work doing in a way that 444 00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:06,000 Speaker 1: would be productive and now just sort of like make 445 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 1: work something that we call a job for the sake 446 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:12,560 Speaker 1: of calling it a job. Yeah, so the first question 447 00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 1: is really interesting, is this going to be the inferior option? 448 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:20,120 Speaker 1: I think we really don't think about this. Guarantees are 449 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 1: everywhere the government puts in place all sorts of guarantees, 450 00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:27,920 Speaker 1: So you know, think of deposit insurance. That's a government guarantee. Right. 451 00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:32,320 Speaker 1: Think of interest on short term securities, that's a government guarantee. 452 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 1: In fact, it's an employment program for bonds. And you 453 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:39,000 Speaker 1: buy and sell bonds on denand to hit that price. Right, 454 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,600 Speaker 1: So we we do that for bonds. Think of the 455 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:45,200 Speaker 1: gold standard. That's a guarantee. You know, that's a guarantee 456 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 1: for the price of gold. It's in the price of 457 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 1: the currency in the form of gold. But if you 458 00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 1: look at it the other way around, we buy and 459 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,560 Speaker 1: sell to hit the right price. It's a full employment 460 00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,480 Speaker 1: program of gold. I mean, we have office stocks, We've 461 00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:00,719 Speaker 1: got all sorts of guarantees who come audities. We have 462 00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,640 Speaker 1: loan guarantees. You know in COVID, you know, the loan 463 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 1: guarantees are the lifeline for all of these businesses that 464 00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,240 Speaker 1: they can get the loan. They can be sure that 465 00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:12,560 Speaker 1: the government will you know, wipe it off if they 466 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 1: preserve paerol. So guarantees are everywhere. It's just we don't 467 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:23,479 Speaker 1: have guarantees for for employment and employment basically functions in 468 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,840 Speaker 1: this same way to provide a basic floor, basic price 469 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:29,840 Speaker 1: in the labor market. Now, what are the jobs. I mean, 470 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 1: this is a question of administration and management in in 471 00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 1: my conception is that these are public service uh jobs, 472 00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,120 Speaker 1: because it is really a public program. You don't want 473 00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 1: the public sector to compete with the private sector. We're 474 00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:48,160 Speaker 1: not going to be building electric cars and doing things 475 00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:51,480 Speaker 1: for commercial return. If it is a public objective to 476 00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:54,680 Speaker 1: provide an employment safety net, it should create some sort 477 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 1: of something of social value. And as I was saying earlier, 478 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:00,960 Speaker 1: we have lots of neglected the area. So I think 479 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:04,040 Speaker 1: that the the obvious place to go is really green 480 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 1: green work, community rehabilitization, environmental projects dealing with things like 481 00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:15,440 Speaker 1: blood control, fire prevention of the you know, the damage 482 00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 1: from hurricanes and other natural you know, natural disasters. In 483 00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:24,120 Speaker 1: other words, you know, we can borrow from darts playbook 484 00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:29,720 Speaker 1: and we can use some of that experience, but really 485 00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,280 Speaker 1: adjusted for the modern you know, for the modern day. 486 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,800 Speaker 1: You know, a lot of environmentalists talk about trees as 487 00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,880 Speaker 1: the lungs of urban spaces. You know, it seems like 488 00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 1: a pretty easy and straightforward thing to do, but it 489 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:47,120 Speaker 1: has huge effects on our living environment. And so that 490 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:51,760 Speaker 1: would be where I would go to create employment opportunities. 491 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:55,400 Speaker 1: But broadly I talked about care work. We have also 492 00:30:55,760 --> 00:31:00,280 Speaker 1: shortages and care um for the elderly, for at risk youth, 493 00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:05,040 Speaker 1: So anything and everything from you know, after school activities 494 00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:10,520 Speaker 1: to classes and training, to recycling initiatives, urban campuses to 495 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:14,280 Speaker 1: community gardens, to deal with the food desert problem across 496 00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:18,520 Speaker 1: the country, to dealing with the fires in California. Can 497 00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:20,920 Speaker 1: you talk a little bit more about the impact of 498 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:25,200 Speaker 1: inflation if we were to have a jobs guaranteed program 499 00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 1: and you know, presumably get maybe not all the way 500 00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 1: to a percent employment, but much much closer to it. Oh, 501 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:37,320 Speaker 1: how would you see that actually impacting wages and broader economy. 502 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 1: So one of the objectives of the job used to 503 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:44,560 Speaker 1: raise the minimum wage and firm it up. So now 504 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:49,960 Speaker 1: we have as the minimum the federal minimum wage. States 505 00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 1: and cities have higher wages. But even if you want 506 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,640 Speaker 1: a minimum wage job, if you're faced with mass unemployment, 507 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,200 Speaker 1: your wage is zero. It's ventially. You know, maybe you 508 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,520 Speaker 1: can get some unemployment insurance. You know, that's temporary. But 509 00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:08,520 Speaker 1: if we have a public option that provides fifteen dollars 510 00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 1: an hour, then that becomes the floor for the rest 511 00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,360 Speaker 1: of the economy. So we should expect at one time 512 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:20,600 Speaker 1: bump in wages and prices, Now will that be inflationary? 513 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:24,160 Speaker 1: So we have to look to like historical examples where 514 00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:28,000 Speaker 1: we've had something similar like that. So in nine was 515 00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:32,000 Speaker 1: the one time in US history when we doubled the 516 00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,520 Speaker 1: minimum wage, So fifteen will be like, you know, doubling 517 00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:39,720 Speaker 1: of the of the current minimum wage. And we were 518 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:42,400 Speaker 1: as close to full employment as we had ever been 519 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:44,920 Speaker 1: right in the post war era, and so there wasn't 520 00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 1: any material inflation of note that we we see from 521 00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:54,840 Speaker 1: just this bump up in and purchasing power. Now, the 522 00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:59,000 Speaker 1: program itself is designed to function council cyclically, which means 523 00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:05,200 Speaker 1: that represents a stimulus. It represents fiscal contribution to the economy. 524 00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:10,720 Speaker 1: So if you have COVID and great financial crisis, people 525 00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:14,280 Speaker 1: are trickling into the program, They're getting wages and income, 526 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,880 Speaker 1: and they are then spending. That is the kind of 527 00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:21,280 Speaker 1: the stimulus itself is what kick starts the private sector economy, 528 00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:25,240 Speaker 1: which is facing deflation. Now, when the private sector picks 529 00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:30,000 Speaker 1: up it's hiring, then the contribution is removed. People transition 530 00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,760 Speaker 1: into private sector, better pay private sector jobs, and so 531 00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:37,720 Speaker 1: the stimulus naturally and automatically shrinks, and so that is 532 00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:41,640 Speaker 1: a kind of a damper on any inflationary effects that 533 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,880 Speaker 1: we might see in the economy. But what's interesting about 534 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:50,480 Speaker 1: about all discussions about inflation is that inflation is assumed 535 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:56,480 Speaker 1: to be a function of strong demand and too high 536 00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:58,720 Speaker 1: as a demand side effect, you know, high incomes and 537 00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:02,800 Speaker 1: strong aggregate demand. But we actually don't really experience that. 538 00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,760 Speaker 1: We haven't really experienced that except after World War Two, 539 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 1: because we've never had a type ful employment economy. We've 540 00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:16,160 Speaker 1: never really had robust, strong growth that has generated this 541 00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:20,160 Speaker 1: kind of demand lead inflation. What we see is, you know, 542 00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:24,799 Speaker 1: things have become expensive, like healthcare, like housing, like education. 543 00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:27,400 Speaker 1: You know, this is cost push inflation. It's a different 544 00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,359 Speaker 1: sort of inflation. So you don't need to keep people 545 00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:33,759 Speaker 1: in unemployed too and incomes down to tackle this sort 546 00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,160 Speaker 1: of inflation. There are other ways of dealing with it. 547 00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:39,279 Speaker 1: So just you know, just through to sum up, the 548 00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:42,640 Speaker 1: program is anti cyclical. I think we have a case 549 00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:46,040 Speaker 1: of mistaken identity for inflation, and we we tend to 550 00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:48,000 Speaker 1: think of it that it's demand lead, but it's really 551 00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:53,440 Speaker 1: you know, uh, cost cost push inflation. And we already 552 00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:58,200 Speaker 1: have anti cyclical fiscal policy that that stabilizes inflation over 553 00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,520 Speaker 1: the cycle. So the job unity will do the same. Sorry. 554 00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:04,080 Speaker 1: One more question on inflation. I mean I tend to 555 00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:08,759 Speaker 1: think of like our current sort of conventional approach is 556 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:13,000 Speaker 1: to the macroeconomy is, well, let's target inflation, let's make 557 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,239 Speaker 1: sure prices stable, and then if we're good at that, 558 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:19,000 Speaker 1: then employment will soon follow. And to me, it feels 559 00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,839 Speaker 1: like m MT Job guarantee Aside subverts that and says 560 00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:26,439 Speaker 1: let's do the employment side first, or let's focus on that. 561 00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:31,080 Speaker 1: Would you expect there to be more price volatility generally, 562 00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,120 Speaker 1: even if it's not okay, like you know, we're not, 563 00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:36,720 Speaker 1: even if it's not like massive inflation. Would you expect 564 00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:40,520 Speaker 1: there to be more price volatility in a system that 565 00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:47,480 Speaker 1: didn't start by essentially targeting inflation? I mean, no, not necessarily. 566 00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:51,160 Speaker 1: We first, we can't even hit our inflation targets, right, 567 00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,920 Speaker 1: so we've tried for twenty years and we can generate 568 00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,359 Speaker 1: Even so a little bit of inflation is probably gonna 569 00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:57,919 Speaker 1: be a good thing. If we get this one time 570 00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,759 Speaker 1: bump in wages and incomes at at bottom, I think 571 00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:03,800 Speaker 1: that that will bring a little bit of desirable inflation, 572 00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:09,439 Speaker 1: increasing incomes and profits and assets. Now volatility, and why 573 00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:13,360 Speaker 1: would we expect volatility from an economy that has full employment. 574 00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,320 Speaker 1: What we what we know from countries that have direct 575 00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:20,719 Speaker 1: labor targeting is that their relative their labor market is 576 00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:23,719 Speaker 1: actually more stable. Like in the US, the unemployment rate 577 00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:26,879 Speaker 1: is this huge yo yo. It shoots up and down 578 00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,440 Speaker 1: turns and then slowly going to come downs and these 579 00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,640 Speaker 1: jobless recoveries and then shoots up again. So with the 580 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:37,839 Speaker 1: job guarantee, which is direct labor targeting, we dampen these amplitudes. 581 00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:43,040 Speaker 1: So we actually the downside, we just stabilized, right, well, 582 00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:48,680 Speaker 1: we don't fall into these big deflationary death spirals. Now 583 00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:52,960 Speaker 1: on the upside, it's not the job guarantee that will 584 00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:57,200 Speaker 1: create any price volatility. You might see volatility coming from 585 00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:02,120 Speaker 1: other parts of the economy, right, We might see shortages, 586 00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:06,239 Speaker 1: you know, we might get max capacity in certain industries. 587 00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:11,040 Speaker 1: They may be commodity price volatility, you name it. But 588 00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:16,040 Speaker 1: these sorts of things are outside of the contribution of 589 00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:20,120 Speaker 1: of the policy of the program itself. You know, obviously, 590 00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:24,000 Speaker 1: you know we've we've said, um, you know, you sort 591 00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:27,120 Speaker 1: of like come at this from an MMT framework, which 592 00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:30,160 Speaker 1: is something that pretty frequently comes up on our episodes 593 00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,799 Speaker 1: these days. You know, when I first became aware of 594 00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,719 Speaker 1: sort of modern monetary theory ten years ago, like, it 595 00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:40,000 Speaker 1: was a lot of focus on fiscal capacity, the fact 596 00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:44,960 Speaker 1: that people's conceptions of what are limiting factor with spending 597 00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:50,120 Speaker 1: is misconceptions about printing money, inflation and so forth. How 598 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:54,839 Speaker 1: crucial in your view is the job guarantee to the 599 00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:58,200 Speaker 1: MMT project. Is it something that you think must be 600 00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:01,040 Speaker 1: central or is it something that you know, given the 601 00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:03,920 Speaker 1: sort of descriptive aspects of m m T, is a 602 00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:05,920 Speaker 1: choice or do you think it's sort of like a 603 00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:08,640 Speaker 1: you know, cord of the whole thing. Like I feel 604 00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:12,120 Speaker 1: like there's some dispute about this question. Yes, yes, I 605 00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:14,480 Speaker 1: I hear that a lot, but it it is. It 606 00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,200 Speaker 1: is a core element. And the reason is because the 607 00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:20,200 Speaker 1: job cure it is not just another jobs program. You know, 608 00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:22,880 Speaker 1: we can come up with all sorts of job creation programs, 609 00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:25,719 Speaker 1: but for for m m T, the job guarantee is 610 00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:30,560 Speaker 1: the substitute for the unemployment stabilizer. It's the substitute for 611 00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:34,480 Speaker 1: the NYRO. So in the in the universe of macroeconomic policies, 612 00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,600 Speaker 1: you know, however well intended they may be. UM we 613 00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:41,080 Speaker 1: have two options treating we either have policies that nudge 614 00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:45,319 Speaker 1: and incentivize that they never quite create enough jobs for all, 615 00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,040 Speaker 1: in which case unemployment is always going to be the 616 00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:52,000 Speaker 1: collateral damage when we have macroeconomic fluctuations. Or you have 617 00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:56,200 Speaker 1: a policy that guarantees employment. So the two choices. So 618 00:38:56,360 --> 00:39:00,960 Speaker 1: what mm Q says is that the public sector expends 619 00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,960 Speaker 1: resources any way to deal with unemployment, and we can 620 00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:08,719 Speaker 1: do it by putting in place a more robust automatic stabilizer. 621 00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,640 Speaker 1: But there's another point I want I want to highlight 622 00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,759 Speaker 1: that actually doesn't really get any play. M m T 623 00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:20,279 Speaker 1: says that the government is the issue of the currency 624 00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:24,680 Speaker 1: and it has the exclusive monopoly. Now in any echo 625 00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,279 Speaker 1: on one course, we we teached our students that a 626 00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:31,680 Speaker 1: monopolis has the exclusive prerogative to set prices. But what 627 00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:34,919 Speaker 1: does that mean for for an issue of the currency. 628 00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:38,840 Speaker 1: You can actually set the price of that of that currency. 629 00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:40,880 Speaker 1: You can figure out the manner in which you supply 630 00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:44,600 Speaker 1: that currency to the economy. So what what the job 631 00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:47,279 Speaker 1: guarantee does is something very interesting. It actually sets a 632 00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:52,719 Speaker 1: conversion rate through this program of currency spent in exchange 633 00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:56,800 Speaker 1: to some basic labor right the way for labor, and 634 00:39:57,239 --> 00:40:00,720 Speaker 1: you know, you can envision a Sennet area in which 635 00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:05,200 Speaker 1: the price of labor is fixed but the budget floats. 636 00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:10,080 Speaker 1: Right of unemployment accelerates, then you relax the budget, you 637 00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:15,840 Speaker 1: spend as needed on buying all excess labor at this price. 638 00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:22,000 Speaker 1: And then, of course, you know, when unemployment shrinks um 639 00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:25,160 Speaker 1: then you reduce that expenditure. But there's always that that 640 00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:28,480 Speaker 1: fixed price that you're paying, and you have a floating budget. 641 00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:32,120 Speaker 1: What do we do today today? Macroeconomic policy is exactly 642 00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:35,480 Speaker 1: the opposite. We fix the budget, the Congress gets together, 643 00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:38,719 Speaker 1: we pass a budget for the year, and then we 644 00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:43,000 Speaker 1: pay market prices for whatever output labor will be. We 645 00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:45,640 Speaker 1: will we will buy for the various programs. So it's 646 00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:49,359 Speaker 1: very interesting. Because we pay market determined prices, we don't 647 00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:52,520 Speaker 1: quite always get all the output that we need to 648 00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:58,640 Speaker 1: satisfy various public needs. The programs um don't really provide 649 00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:02,959 Speaker 1: the necessary stimulus to secure tightful employment, and so it's 650 00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:06,680 Speaker 1: not quite adequate. So the job guaranteed, at least with 651 00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:12,279 Speaker 1: respectaful employment, has this other unique feature that only a 652 00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,840 Speaker 1: monopolis has the prerogative right to put in place, to 653 00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:20,719 Speaker 1: spend as needed at a given price to employ all 654 00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:25,040 Speaker 1: excess labors as needed have. Lena, that was awesome. I'm 655 00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:28,359 Speaker 1: glad we finally got you on the show. Is very 656 00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:31,640 Speaker 1: timely and uh, I hope everyone reads your book. Thank 657 00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:34,279 Speaker 1: you so much. It was great talking to you both. Yeah, 658 00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:37,040 Speaker 1: that great. Thanks to Lena. He's really interesting with thanks. 659 00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:50,280 Speaker 1: You know, I really like um the way of Lena 660 00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:54,400 Speaker 1: frames the question of what we decide to fix. I 661 00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:56,680 Speaker 1: think that to me is sort of the most sort 662 00:41:56,680 --> 00:42:00,200 Speaker 1: of interesting and counterintuitive idea of this. Like, Okay, we 663 00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:03,840 Speaker 1: guarantee that your money in the bank will be safe, 664 00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:08,120 Speaker 1: we guarantee what interest you'll be able to get paid 665 00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:12,160 Speaker 1: on X, like the government says all kinds of guarantees. 666 00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,680 Speaker 1: So the idea that we would extend that to labor 667 00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:19,840 Speaker 1: it's not automatically intuitive, but it's also not you know, 668 00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:22,239 Speaker 1: it's really not out of the realm of lots of 669 00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:26,440 Speaker 1: other things we do in the I totally agree, But again, 670 00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,759 Speaker 1: this is sort of my main criticism of m m T, 671 00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:33,799 Speaker 1: Like the constriction on the job's guarantee has always been 672 00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:38,319 Speaker 1: political and not financial, because we do spend loads of 673 00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:41,399 Speaker 1: money on other guarantee programs and you know, some other 674 00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:46,200 Speaker 1: social programs. So like, how do you actually overcome that barrier. 675 00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:49,719 Speaker 1: And even if as as Pa saying, there does seem 676 00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,680 Speaker 1: to be you know, a groundswell of support building for 677 00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:56,080 Speaker 1: a guarantee of some kind, like it still hasn't happened 678 00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:58,520 Speaker 1: and it still seems quite far off in the US 679 00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:02,000 Speaker 1: political system. Yeah, well, you gotta write books, and you've 680 00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:04,600 Speaker 1: got to come on the Odd Lots podcast, and then 681 00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:07,360 Speaker 1: influential people have to listen to the odd Lots podcast 682 00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:08,719 Speaker 1: and then they're like, all right, we're gonna vote that 683 00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:11,280 Speaker 1: into lot mean for me, like that actually is though 684 00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:14,280 Speaker 1: the answer, it's like you just gotta it's it's political, 685 00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,279 Speaker 1: and you just keep fighting for it like any other fight, 686 00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:20,520 Speaker 1: whether it's whatever else people fight for. The other major 687 00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:22,400 Speaker 1: thing that we probably could be talking about in this 688 00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:26,120 Speaker 1: context is having some sort of you know, socialized medical system. 689 00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:29,240 Speaker 1: But again, for the past few years we've seen how 690 00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:33,160 Speaker 1: how polarizing um that whole debate became. But if you 691 00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:37,880 Speaker 1: think essentials for being a complete you know, human being, 692 00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:41,799 Speaker 1: probably a good job or at least a job, and 693 00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:46,920 Speaker 1: medical care and you know, and she's is pavel to 694 00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:48,960 Speaker 1: mention like some of these things are like really popular, 695 00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:53,000 Speaker 1: even like healthcare, like it's soap polarized at the sort 696 00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:55,479 Speaker 1: of like congressional level. But I don't know if probably 697 00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:57,960 Speaker 1: a lot of people missed it. Just the other day, 698 00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:01,960 Speaker 1: a couple of days ago, Oklahoma or is overwhelmingly decided 699 00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:06,439 Speaker 1: to expand medicaid in the states, So a couple people 700 00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:09,200 Speaker 1: are now going to get medicaid who were previously ineligible. 701 00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:12,279 Speaker 1: A lot of these things are like popular when you 702 00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:15,279 Speaker 1: actually put them at the popular level as opposed to say, 703 00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:18,840 Speaker 1: the congressional level. Um, all that aside, Like, no, it 704 00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:21,319 Speaker 1: does seem like, you know that, whether it's sort of 705 00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:25,960 Speaker 1: the general MMT concept of okay, there's a lot more 706 00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:29,040 Speaker 1: fiscal flexibility than we were like to believe, or the 707 00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:32,640 Speaker 1: sort of narrow objective here of let's use that to 708 00:44:32,640 --> 00:44:35,719 Speaker 1: give everyone a job. It just sort of starts by 709 00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:40,000 Speaker 1: reframing people's popular conceptions. And look, you know what we 710 00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:43,960 Speaker 1: see right now is um a reminder like we have 711 00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:48,600 Speaker 1: so much flexibility as a country to spend and do 712 00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:51,680 Speaker 1: things beyond you know that they're like we've managed to 713 00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:55,799 Speaker 1: keep people's household incomes actually going up despite incredible unemployment. 714 00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:59,160 Speaker 1: So we're sort of getting this real time experiment in 715 00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:01,879 Speaker 1: what we can do and I think part of the 716 00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:05,000 Speaker 1: premise of all of this is why do we only 717 00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:07,879 Speaker 1: limited to the worst possible crisis. Why don't we take 718 00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:12,120 Speaker 1: what we learn and actually created something more stable, Because again, 719 00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:15,560 Speaker 1: like crises aside, we've been under employed for at least 720 00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:19,280 Speaker 1: two decades. Well, I do think we've been talking about 721 00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:21,360 Speaker 1: this a lot already, but I do think one of 722 00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:23,880 Speaker 1: the unique things about the coronavirus is that it is 723 00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:26,839 Speaker 1: going to give us a chance to have these sort 724 00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:32,120 Speaker 1: of conversations about the structure of our economy. So, you know, 725 00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:35,040 Speaker 1: if there's ever a moment to start talking about jobs guarantee, 726 00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:38,600 Speaker 1: it's definitely this one. So it's gonna be fascinating to 727 00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:44,320 Speaker 1: see what happens. Are Okay, this has been another episode 728 00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:47,120 Speaker 1: of the ad Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can 729 00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:50,680 Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe 730 00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:54,040 Speaker 1: Wisn't Though. You can follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart. 731 00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:57,160 Speaker 1: Be sure to follow our guest Pavlina Charon of Us. 732 00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:59,759 Speaker 1: She's at p Charon of Us and check out her 733 00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:03,520 Speaker 1: book on the Job Guarantee. Follow our producer on Twitter, 734 00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:07,400 Speaker 1: Laura Carlson at Laura M. Carlson. The Bloomberg had a podcast, 735 00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:11,120 Speaker 1: Francesca Levi at Francesca Today and check out all of 736 00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:14,760 Speaker 1: our podcasts at Bloomberg under the handle at podcast. Thanks 737 00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:15,200 Speaker 1: for listening.