1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:10,920 Speaker 2: The US Iran War has entered its fifth day with 3 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 2: no signs of de escalation. On Wednesday, Defense Secretary Pete 4 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 2: Hegseth confirmed the sinking of an Iranian warship off the 5 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 2: coast of Sri Lanka, telling reporters that the war with 6 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:23,279 Speaker 2: Iran was just getting started. 7 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: We are accelerating, not decelerating. 8 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 2: Iran's capabilities are evaporating by the hour, while American strength 9 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 2: grows fiercer, smarter, and utterly dominant more bombers. President Trump 10 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 2: showed no sign of looking for an off ramp. He 11 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:41,239 Speaker 2: brushed off reports that Iran's Ministry of Intelligence reached out 12 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:44,640 Speaker 2: indirectly to discuss ways to end the conflict, writing on 13 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 2: truth Social quote, they want to talk, I said, too late. 14 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 2: In light of all this, I wanted to sit down 15 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 2: with someone who understands the complexities of negotiating with Iran's 16 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 2: regime and the unforeseen consequences when diplomacy fails. 17 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: Mister Secretary, thank you very much. Great to be with you. 18 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 2: Anthony Blincoln served as Secretary of State under President Biden. 19 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 2: He spent much of his tenure trying to revive the 20 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 2: twenty fifteen Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, the 21 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 2: Iran nuclear deal he helped negotiate as Deputy Secretary of 22 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:18,319 Speaker 2: State under President Obama. President Trump withdrew from that agreement 23 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,679 Speaker 2: during his first term. A pivotal moment, Blincoln says, on 24 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 2: the path to war with Iran, I'm David Gera, and 25 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 2: this is the big take from Bloomberg News today. On 26 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 2: the show, my conversation with former Secretary of State Anthony 27 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,759 Speaker 2: Blincoln on how the US tried to avoid conflict with Iran, 28 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 2: how this war could end, and its consequences for the 29 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 2: region and the US's world standing. We've heard from the President, 30 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 2: Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. 31 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 2: I'm curious at this point what your understanding is of 32 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 2: the case this administration is made for the US going 33 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 2: to war against her on Well. 34 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 3: Look, the case keeps shifting. But the first thing to 35 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 3: say is this, from my perspective, once our men and 36 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 3: women in uniform are engaged in an operation or in 37 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 3: a war, my first thought is for their safety and 38 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 3: for their success, irrespective of what I think about how 39 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 3: we got there or even where this is going, So 40 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 3: that's primarily what I'm thinking of. But having said that, 41 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 3: we've heard, you know, number of shifting rationales. But I 42 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 3: think it's important to take into account that we've got 43 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 3: to be able to hold multiple truths in our head 44 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 3: at the same time. Is it a good thing that 45 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:38,519 Speaker 3: this Iahtola is gone? Yes, terrible tyrant. Is it a 46 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:42,080 Speaker 3: good thing potentially at least that Iran's nuclear program is 47 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 3: I guess reobliterated because apparently it was obliterated last June, 48 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 3: but maybe not so much because they had to reobliterate it, 49 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 3: or it's missile program diminished, or it's navy sunk. 50 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 1: Yes. 51 00:02:56,520 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 3: But to do that and to take on the extraordinary 52 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 3: risks that go with it without having made the case 53 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 3: with the American people with citing imminent threats that apparently 54 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 3: didn't exist, I think that's problematic. And the chances of 55 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 3: unintended consequences taking hold in any situation like this are 56 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,080 Speaker 3: very real, very serious for our partners and allies in 57 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 3: the region, and for ourselves and of course with the 58 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 3: Iranian people. I think a big question that everyone has is, Okay, 59 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 3: have we done regime change in Iran or just iatola change? 60 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 3: Which is the way it looks right now. 61 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 2: You brought up the argument that there was an iminate 62 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 2: threat in years past, you'd warned that the amount of 63 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 2: weeks before Ron could develop facile uranium. 64 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 1: Is that an argument that's. 65 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 2: Persuasive to you so much as that's been made by 66 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 2: the ministration that there was a threat. 67 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 1: It's an ironic argument in a number of ways. 68 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 3: First, as I said, they claim to have obliterated the 69 00:03:56,280 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 3: nuclear facile material program back in June, and now we're told, actually, no, 70 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 3: we didn't. And a number of us warned at the 71 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 3: time that one of the reasons why military action against 72 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 3: the nuclear program might not do the trick is that 73 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 3: the Iranians were likely to start to rebuild, maybe rebuild 74 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 3: deeper underground where we couldn't get at it. Whether that 75 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:16,719 Speaker 3: was happening or to what extent, I don't know, because 76 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:18,359 Speaker 3: I'm not privy to that information, but at least that 77 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,840 Speaker 3: seems to be part of the rationale. The deeper irony, 78 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:22,839 Speaker 3: of course, is that we never should have been in 79 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:27,159 Speaker 3: this position. Insofar as the agreement that the President Obama reached, 80 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 3: the Iran Nuclear Deal, the so called JCPOA, put Iran's 81 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 3: nuclear program in a box. It made sure that Iran 82 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:36,360 Speaker 3: could not produce the fissile material needed for a nuclear 83 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,160 Speaker 3: weapon in less than a year, and so if they 84 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 3: chose to break out of the box and go for that, 85 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 3: we'd see it, and we'd have plenty of time to 86 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 3: be able to do something about it. President Trump tore 87 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 3: up that agreement, said he'd replace it with something better. 88 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 3: He never did, and that's the road that we then 89 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 3: wound up on. That led to, in some ways, to 90 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 3: where we are today with Iran, Yes, dramatically advancing its 91 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:01,840 Speaker 3: production of fissile material so that breakout time moved from 92 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:04,599 Speaker 3: one year to a couple of weeks. But you don't 93 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 3: only need fystile maturire, you actually need a weapon too. 94 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 3: And I think, as has been publicly reported, our intelligence 95 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 3: agencies and others, the IEA continue to conclude that Iran 96 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 3: has not made a decision to actually weaponize if and 97 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 3: when they do, or if and when they did, most 98 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:27,920 Speaker 3: estimates had that timeline a couple of years. There are 99 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 3: different kinds of weapons, less sophisticated ones you could build 100 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:33,920 Speaker 3: on a quicker timeline, But the bottom line is that 101 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 3: on the nuclear side, there was no imminent threat. There 102 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:39,919 Speaker 3: was though, the fact that, yes, in terms of facile 103 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 3: material production, they'd gone from the Obama deal more than 104 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 3: a year to a few weeks. 105 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 2: The Supreme Leader who's been killed, of course, warned in 106 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 2: the run up to this that if there were US strikes, 107 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 2: the US risk of a wider regional war. How has 108 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 2: what's played out over these last few days, How does 109 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,719 Speaker 2: that compare to what you expected would happen here? In 110 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,559 Speaker 2: your old jobs, there were planning meetings and war games 111 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 2: in which you kind of try to figure out what 112 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:07,479 Speaker 2: might happen here as we see this war widen, is 113 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 2: that in keeping with what you expected when you heard 114 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 2: the Supreme Leader warnant of that. 115 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 3: Well, look, it's certainly something that should have been anticipated. 116 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 3: And what's one of the striking features so far is 117 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 3: that Iran has launched far more missiles and far more 118 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:23,839 Speaker 3: drones at the Arab countries in the Gulf and in 119 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 3: the region that it has even at Israel, disproportionately so. 120 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:30,600 Speaker 3: And in part that's too because we have bases and 121 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 3: a presence there. 122 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 1: But they've gone beyond that. 123 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 3: They've gone at infrastructure that these countries have, the oil infrastructure. 124 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 3: They want to try to inflict so much pain that 125 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 3: we can't sustain the effort, and that's something that should 126 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:43,479 Speaker 3: have been anticipated. 127 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:45,679 Speaker 1: And David, I think we're looking at a couple. 128 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,280 Speaker 3: Of things going forward in terms of where does this 129 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:51,159 Speaker 3: go and how does this end? And it seems to 130 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:54,720 Speaker 3: me that there are two critical factors to look at, 131 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 3: markets and munitions. 132 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:57,479 Speaker 1: Markets. 133 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:00,599 Speaker 3: Where are the oil markets, where's the stock market, where's 134 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 3: the bond market? I know President Trump is very attentive 135 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 3: to those, and if they go in a southerly direction 136 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 3: and stay that way, or in the case of oil, 137 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 3: in a northernly direction, that's going to be possibly a 138 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:15,559 Speaker 3: limiting factor. Then munitions, there's really a rason to figure 139 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 3: out who expends their munitions first and fastest. Do the 140 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 3: Iranians put us in a position where we've used up 141 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 3: a lot of interceptors to deal with defense or even 142 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 3: our offensive missiles to take out their launchers, or conversely, 143 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 3: do they run. 144 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 1: Out and we still have what we need. 145 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 3: Again, I don't know the numbers here, I'm not privy 146 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 3: to that, but it is something we have to be 147 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 3: very very attentive to. Because these things are not in 148 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 3: infinite supply. The production times are very long. And of 149 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 3: course we're also using very in many cases, very expensive 150 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 3: weapons to take down twenty thousand dollars drones. That's not 151 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 3: a good equation if you keep that going over time. 152 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 3: One of the things I'm worried about, and this gets 153 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 3: to the second and third order consequences, is we so 154 00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 3: deplete our arsenal and it takes a long time to 155 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 3: rebuild it that that puts US in a disadvantageous position 156 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 3: when it comes to say a China or a Russia. 157 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 1: All of those things need to be factored in. 158 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 3: And again it's one of the reasons why if you're 159 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 3: going to undertake something like this, you've got to make 160 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 3: sure that you've factored. 161 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 1: All of that in. 162 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 3: And again, it really should start with explaining to the 163 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 3: American people why you're doing something, why it's necessary. 164 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 1: Why now do. 165 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 2: You see an off ramp anywhere at this point. 166 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 3: I do in the sense that one, as I said, 167 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 3: I think the off ramp and if we'll be governed 168 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,440 Speaker 3: by this question of munitions and markets, and then what 169 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:35,679 Speaker 3: is that off ramp? I think the president may simply 170 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 3: declare victory. You'll say got rid of the Ayatola, we 171 00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 3: diminished or degraded or destroyed their nuclear program. Again, we 172 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:48,199 Speaker 3: did the same thing to the missile program. We did 173 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:51,199 Speaker 3: the same thing to the navy. And as to the regime, 174 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 3: well over the Iranian people, good luck to them, hope 175 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 3: they succeed, and if they don't, it's their fault. If 176 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 3: they do, we'll take the credit. Ron response to that 177 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 3: remains to be seen. And for the for the regime 178 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 3: survival of success. Right now, the expectation seems to be 179 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 3: the Iyatola Sun is his successor. He's very tied into 180 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 3: the IRGC, and so you may have a situation where, 181 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 3: much as we want and everyone should want to see 182 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 3: a change in that regime, we have, you know, regime 183 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 3: change without regime change, status quo, status status quo, and 184 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 3: even potentially even worse because it may simply ultimately reinforce 185 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 3: the IRGC, the specialized military. And part of the problem 186 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:40,680 Speaker 3: with these things is that it's very hard to produce 187 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 3: regime change from outside. You can't bomb your way to it. 188 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:45,680 Speaker 3: We've had a lot of experience with that, and not 189 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 3: not such good experience over the last twenty years. 190 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: It's even not so likely. 191 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 3: To come from the streets, even with extraordinarily courageous Iranian people. 192 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 3: It's more likely to come from kind of within the palace, 193 00:09:57,360 --> 00:09:59,320 Speaker 3: and then it could go in any one of you know, 194 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 3: multiple directs. You could get more pragmatic people, not good guys, 195 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 3: but more pragmatic people who are open to, you know, 196 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 3: curbing the excesses of the regime, focusing at home instead 197 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 3: of focusing abroad doing deals. But right now it looks 198 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 3: more likely that you're going to have hardliners. And you know, 199 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 3: the who had a song way back in the sixties 200 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 3: or seventies, you know, here's to the new boss, same 201 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 3: as the old boss. That seems to be right now 202 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 3: at least where we're headed. 203 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 2: You've warned of the dangers of US intervention many times. 204 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 2: Twenty twenty four, you spoke at the Council on Foreign Relations. 205 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:36,719 Speaker 2: He said, effectively, I think if we looked the last 206 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 2: twenty years or experiments and regime change have not exactly 207 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 2: been resounding successes. CNN is reporting that the US is 208 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:47,560 Speaker 2: considering arming the Kurds in Aron Bloomberg hasn't confirmed that reporting. 209 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 2: When you hear that, what red flags does that raise 210 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:51,319 Speaker 2: for you? Oh? 211 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 3: The red flag it raises is this could be Syria reducts, 212 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 3: or it could be Libya reducts. You could see the 213 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 3: country fracturing, imploding, or even explode with refugees and migration, 214 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:06,199 Speaker 3: with the exporting of some of their problems, with extremist 215 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 3: groups taking hold in one part or another. It's incredibly 216 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 3: fraught and incredibly dangerous, And as sympathetic as I am 217 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 3: to the Curs who've been incredible partners for us, incredibly brave, 218 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 3: I don't think that getting into the business of arming 219 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:20,560 Speaker 3: these groups is ultimately going. 220 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 1: To be a good thing. 221 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,079 Speaker 3: And then you're going to have other countries that pick 222 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,240 Speaker 3: their partners inside, and again you wind up with something 223 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 3: like Syria, something like Libya. 224 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 2: Let's talk a bit about diplomacy, the President posted on 225 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 2: truth Social they want to talk, referring to the Iranians, 226 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 2: I said, too late? Is it too late for there 227 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,679 Speaker 2: to be a diplomatic solution or to have those conversations? 228 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:45,439 Speaker 3: At this point, I think it's never too late for diplomacy. 229 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 3: The question is is there a good moment? Is this 230 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 3: the right moment for it? I would hope so, because 231 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 3: on one level, the Iranians have never been weaker, at 232 00:11:55,200 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 3: least not in recent memory, militarily politically at home, diplomatically abroad, 233 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 3: and their proxies are for the most part gone or 234 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 3: vastly diminished. So that's why I was hopeful before this 235 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:12,959 Speaker 3: uh this action started that maybe they actually would get 236 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:15,200 Speaker 3: a renewed nuclear deal because Iran was had a very 237 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 3: weak hand to play. So I think there is a 238 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 3: possibility of doing that. Whether whatever the new regime is 239 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 3: or the continuation of the existing regimes is ready to 240 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 3: do that, wants to do that to be determined. It 241 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 3: also depends on what the Trump administration wants to do, 242 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 3: and I imagine Israel is going to have a say 243 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 3: in this as well. 244 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 2: As the administration was marshaling all of this military might 245 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:38,559 Speaker 2: to the Middle East, you had Jared Kushner, the President's 246 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 2: son in law, Steve Witkoff, his longtime friend now on 247 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:45,360 Speaker 2: void too many conflicts and regions meeting in Geneva in 248 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 2: meetings mediated by the Omanis. Do you think that those 249 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 2: were good faith conversations when you look at it now 250 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 2: in hindsight, Look. 251 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 1: I can't. 252 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 3: It's hard for me to tell, not being in the room, 253 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 3: not being privy to those conversations, I certainly want to believe, 254 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 3: so I don't know, as you know, I think Jared 255 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 3: Kushner and Steved Kauff are very able negotiators, but it 256 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 3: was not clear to me that the expertise was also 257 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 3: with them, which is very necessary when you're dealing with 258 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 3: nuclear matters. When we did the JCPOA, we had very 259 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:17,959 Speaker 3: senior diplomats, but we had tremendous technical expertise at hand, 260 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 3: because you know, it's complicated stuff and you want to 261 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:22,959 Speaker 3: make sure you're not making a mistake. So I'm not 262 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,320 Speaker 3: sure who was actually in the room and whether the 263 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 3: people in the room could fully evaluate. 264 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 1: And assess is this a good deal? Is this a 265 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 1: bad deal? 266 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 3: And I've heard different versions of what the Iranians were 267 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 3: actually willing to do, not willing to do, different versions 268 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:37,199 Speaker 3: of what we were willing to do or not willing 269 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:41,400 Speaker 3: to do. Not being there, it's hard to tell. But 270 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:45,200 Speaker 3: you know, David, when President Trump tore up the JCPOA 271 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 3: back in the day first term, he said he wanted 272 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 3: to replace it with a better deal, and I think 273 00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:52,840 Speaker 3: there was actually an opportunity to do that because Iran 274 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 3: was in so much of a weaker position now than 275 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 3: it was back when President Obama negotiated the deal. 276 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 2: You, of course, are a professional diplomat. You've dealt with 277 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 2: the Iranians directly, and I'm curious if you think that 278 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:07,560 Speaker 2: Steve Witkoff, Jared Kirshnahrett some sort of inherent disadvantage in 279 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 2: those talks because you had professional diplomats on one side 280 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:12,320 Speaker 2: and they were on the other. This isn't what they've 281 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 2: done their entire lives. 282 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 3: Look, a number of the Iranians have been doing this 283 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 3: for a long time, and when we change administrations, we 284 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 3: change out the people who are doing these doing these issues, 285 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 3: and there's a certain learning curve and you have to 286 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 3: get up to speed and become genuinely expert in things. Again, 287 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 3: that's why I think it's so important to make sure 288 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 3: that you have the experts with you. They're the continuity. 289 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 3: The Iranians have continuity because it's usually the same cash 290 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 3: to characters. The same guys have been doing this for 291 00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 3: a long time. Aurunchi, the Foreign Minister was Zarif's the 292 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 3: then Foreign Minister's deputy back then, so he knows what 293 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 3: he's doing. 294 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 2: My interview with former Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln continues 295 00:14:53,800 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 2: after the break. You've noted in the past that during 296 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 2: War games, something's come up where if there were to 297 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 2: be this kind of chaos in Iran, the regime might 298 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 2: move uranium to different places across the country. And going 299 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 2: back to what you were talking about a moment ago, 300 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 2: the prospects of there being a Libya esque or Syria 301 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:23,080 Speaker 2: esque civil war, how worried should we be about that 302 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 2: nuclear material being effectively scattered across this country and they're 303 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 2: being next to no accountability for a where it is 304 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 2: and be into whose hands it falls. 305 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a real concern. 306 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 3: I would assume that the remaining material and again I 307 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:40,600 Speaker 3: don't know. We've seen lots of reports that it's likely 308 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 3: that they were able to preserve safeguard a lot of ursuranium, 309 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 3: but I don't know that for a fact. I would 310 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 3: assume that they've tried to disperse it, as you said, 311 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 3: presumably in places that the regime has some control over. 312 00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 3: But if a country winds up in some kind of 313 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 3: civil war, yeah, that's a real concert and something that 314 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 3: we have to factor into our thinking. If we're going 315 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 3: to start, you know, dropping matches there in terms of 316 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 3: arming various groups, we better watch out in terms of 317 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 3: getting what we wish for. But You've seen extraordinarily courageous 318 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 3: people beyond imagination who are out in the streets looking 319 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,320 Speaker 3: for change getting mowed down by this regime. And we 320 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 3: all want to see a different future for them, different. 321 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 1: Leadership for them. 322 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 3: But it's very very hard, if not impossible, to do 323 00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 3: that from the outside, as we were saying, And the 324 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 3: risks now are that instead of having a change, having 325 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 3: a transition, you have an implosion, and then maybe even 326 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 3: an explosion that has real effects outside the country. Our 327 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 3: partners in the region have far fewer interceptors air defense 328 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 3: interceptors than we do. If it gets to the point 329 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 3: where they're running out and the Iranians have enough to 330 00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 3: continue going at their infrastructure, at their people, I think 331 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 3: there's going to be a pretty strong demand signal on 332 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 3: the administration to take an off ramp to stop. We've 333 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 3: had other second and third order consequences here at the 334 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 3: very time when Russia is really reaching a weak point 335 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 3: because of its dependence on oil to fuel its war economy, 336 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:18,680 Speaker 3: in large part because the price of oil has gone down, 337 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,399 Speaker 3: it's having more trouble exploiting oil because of sanctions and 338 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 3: restrictions that we put on technology that's been a huge 339 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 3: and growing factor. And the thing to do now, ideally 340 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:31,159 Speaker 3: would be to squeeze the shadow fleet that they have 341 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 3: that's going around the world, and that's the one thing 342 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,120 Speaker 3: that's able to keep them going. At the very time 343 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:40,600 Speaker 3: when that's possible, and that that might force putin to 344 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 3: finally cut a deal on Ukraine, they get a lifeline. 345 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 3: And the lifeline is the price of oil is going up, 346 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 3: and the value of that shadow fleet oil is going up, 347 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 3: and people will need it and. 348 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: Want to buy it. 349 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:53,399 Speaker 3: The Europeans, in turn, having moved away from Russian gas, 350 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:57,240 Speaker 3: are now more dependent on the Middle East, and if 351 00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 3: that gets tied up, if the Straits of Hormuz remain problematic, 352 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 3: that's going to put a lot of pressure on them. 353 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 3: So mapping out, gaming out, planning out, and then making 354 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:10,920 Speaker 3: sure you have something in place to deal with all 355 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:13,199 Speaker 3: of these second and third order effects usually important. 356 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 1: It's not at all clear to me that that was done. 357 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 2: From where we sit today. Are you confident that the 358 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 2: US can extricate itself from this without putting boots on 359 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 2: the ground in orr On. 360 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 1: It depends what the objective is. I think that yes. 361 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:29,399 Speaker 3: In short, as I said a moment ago, you know, 362 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 3: the President could theoretically declare victory tomorrow and claim that, 363 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 3: you know, severe damage was done to the regime, to 364 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,480 Speaker 3: the missiles, to the nuclear program, to. 365 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 1: The Navy, and call it today. But then for what. 366 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:45,439 Speaker 3: Most of that stuff ultimately can be rebuilt, and absent 367 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 3: a change in the governance in the regime, which right 368 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:54,920 Speaker 3: now in this moment doesn't seem to be forthcoming huge 369 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:58,919 Speaker 3: risk without the support of the well without the in 370 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 3: effect that buy in from the American people, that leaves 371 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:06,919 Speaker 3: us actually potentially for some time and as strategically we 372 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 3: can position with regard for example, to China, Russia, because 373 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:15,280 Speaker 3: our own stockpiles of critical long range precition guided weapons 374 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:22,159 Speaker 3: are down, our air defense stockpile interceptors is down. That's 375 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 3: usually usually questionable, But I think that is an off 376 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 3: ramp that's available to the president if he wants to 377 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:28,239 Speaker 3: take it. 378 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 2: As you've pointed out, President Trump pulled out of the 379 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:34,399 Speaker 2: Iron Nuclear Deal during his first term. When you were 380 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 2: Secretary of State, there was an effort to reanimate that, 381 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 2: to get another iteration of it. What were the challenges 382 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,080 Speaker 2: of that and why was it the case that in 383 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two those talks broke down. 384 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 3: Look, we tried very hard to get back to the deal, 385 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 3: but at that point in time, and especially with the 386 00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,800 Speaker 3: passage of time, there were two things that were critical. 387 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 3: One was that, of course the Iranians, not without reason, 388 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:00,399 Speaker 3: said how can we trust anything? 389 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:01,160 Speaker 1: We can do a deal? 390 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 3: And then you know, maybe the President Biden's successor does 391 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 3: exactly what President Trump does. So there was a limiting 392 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 3: factor there. But the bigger limiting factor was getting the 393 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:14,879 Speaker 3: Iranians to agree to terms that we deemed necessary and 394 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 3: sufficient to make the deal the right deal to do, 395 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 3: and in particular re extending the timelines the constraints that 396 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 3: the original deal had in them on the nuclear program. 397 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 3: We couldn't get to where we thought we needed to 398 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 3: be to make it worthwhile. And we were doing it 399 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 3: in partnership, in very close partnership with our European friends 400 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,639 Speaker 3: and allies with the French, with the British, with the Germans, 401 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,640 Speaker 3: with the European Union, something that hadn't been the case 402 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,239 Speaker 3: in the immediate previous years. And I think we all 403 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:46,199 Speaker 3: agreed that the deal that the Iranians were willing to 404 00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 3: sign on to was simply not adequate. I wish we 405 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 3: could have gotten there. But more than that, I wish 406 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 3: the President Trump had not torn up the original deal. 407 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,239 Speaker 3: We'd be in a very different position, in a very 408 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 3: different world. 409 00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 2: I want to ask you about something that your successor 410 00:20:58,880 --> 00:20:59,440 Speaker 2: said this week. 411 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 1: St. 412 00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 2: Marco Rubia was talking about the motivations for this war. 413 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,200 Speaker 2: He said Israel was planting attacks that could lead to 414 00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 2: reprisals on American troops, so the US had to get 415 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:08,919 Speaker 2: involved militarily. 416 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:10,440 Speaker 1: He since walked that back a. 417 00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,399 Speaker 2: Bit, But what does that say to you about the 418 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,439 Speaker 2: relationship between the US and Israel and the influence that 419 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:17,720 Speaker 2: the US has over Israeli policy. 420 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 3: Look, this has been a long story when it comes 421 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 3: to Iran, and back during the Obama administration, the Israelis 422 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 3: were pushing President Obama to take military action against Iran 423 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:34,400 Speaker 3: and were warning that they would do it themselves if 424 00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 3: he didn't, And he wouldn't because he thought the better 425 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,119 Speaker 3: way to get at the nuclear program, which is what 426 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 3: we were focused on, was through very muscular diplomacy backed 427 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 3: up by very very strong sanctions that we rallied the 428 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:48,399 Speaker 3: world to put in place. 429 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 1: And then we got the. 430 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:53,359 Speaker 3: Iran Nuclear Agreement in the days after the October seventh 431 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 3: attack on Israel, the horrific attack on Israel by Hamas. 432 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:02,239 Speaker 3: The Israelis were insisting that in the north Hesbolah from 433 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 3: Lebanon was about to attack and they wanted to strike 434 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 3: preemptively against Hesbolah, and President Biden said, look, we we're 435 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 3: with you, will always be with you in defending Israel, 436 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 3: and if you're attacked, were there, but we're not there 437 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 3: if you're going to start something. And we came within 438 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 3: about thirty minutes of having a war in the North 439 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 3: based on bad information that the Israelis had about an 440 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 3: imminent attack from Hesbolah. 441 00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 1: We were able to avert that, but the. 442 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 3: President Biden was very insistent, We're not going to do 443 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:37,359 Speaker 3: something that you initiate, that you start. It's very different 444 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,919 Speaker 3: than defending Israel one it's been attacked. I can't speak 445 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 3: to what the dynamic was this time. I heard that, 446 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:45,200 Speaker 3: then it was walked back. The President said it was 447 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,879 Speaker 3: the other way around. There's been a shifting rationale, a 448 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:52,680 Speaker 3: shifting explanation for why this, why now? And again that's 449 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 3: why it's so important to have ideally laid this out 450 00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 3: before the American people and our partner and allies. We 451 00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 3: might have had less friction with them if there was 452 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,639 Speaker 3: a compelling case to be made to make sure that 453 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 3: we laid that out in advance and had them with 454 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 3: us on the takeoff, not mid flight or on the landing. 455 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 2: You have faced protesters when you've given speeches. I remember 456 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 2: there was an interruption in the press briefing room at 457 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,239 Speaker 2: the State Department when you were giving remarks. And the 458 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,359 Speaker 2: criticism you faced has been you in the administration. The 459 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 2: Biden administration effectively gave cover to Israel and Prime Minister 460 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,639 Speaker 2: and Yahoo for them to prosecute the war that they 461 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,159 Speaker 2: prosecuted in gods that led to seventy five thousand people dying. 462 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 2: In hindsight, do you regret not exerting more pressure on 463 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 2: or trying to do more to constrain Yes, Israel, but 464 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 2: principally the Prime Minister in that war. 465 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:47,160 Speaker 3: Look, David, when there's been such terrible loss, such terrible suffering, 466 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 3: when so many innocent people, Palestini, men, women and children 467 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 3: lost their lives, You're always going to ask yourself. 468 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 1: I always ask myself, should. 469 00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 3: We have done something different? We had to make judgments 470 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 3: in the moment to try to achieve a number of 471 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:06,639 Speaker 3: objectives and in a. 472 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:07,120 Speaker 1: Way I should. 473 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 3: I should really start with where we ended, which is 474 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:11,919 Speaker 3: we ended with a ceasefire that we handed off to 475 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 3: the Trump administration. We ended with the hostages coming out, 476 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,359 Speaker 3: prisoners being released from Israeli jails, tens of thousands of 477 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:21,720 Speaker 3: trucks going into Gaza. 478 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 2: I wish that is a mutual achievement between the BID 479 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 2: and the Trump. 480 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:26,200 Speaker 1: Well, I think it was. 481 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,600 Speaker 3: It was largely President Biden's, but I'm very thankful for 482 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:30,960 Speaker 3: the role that Steve wood Goff in particular played and 483 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 3: supporting that in the moment, and that's what we were 484 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 3: able to hand off and then in that in that agreement, 485 00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:39,280 Speaker 3: in the ceasefire agreement, it was it was for six weeks, 486 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:43,640 Speaker 3: and during those six weeks, the notion was that the 487 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 3: parties would negotiate the terms of an enduring ceasefire. 488 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 1: That didn't happen. 489 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 3: They went back to war, and then finally President Trump 490 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,359 Speaker 3: eight or nine months later, landed this the currencies fire. 491 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:57,879 Speaker 3: But do I wish that we could have gotten that 492 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:02,680 Speaker 3: sooner with less suffering. Absolutely, But there were a lot 493 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,240 Speaker 3: of things that were going on that we had to 494 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:07,280 Speaker 3: factor in. One was we were trying obviously to make 495 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 3: sure that October seventh could never happen again. And October 496 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,480 Speaker 3: seventh was almost written off immediately by much of the world, 497 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 3: starting practically on October eighth, and you had to traumatize 498 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:21,400 Speaker 3: Israeli society, and then now you've had a traumatized Palestinian 499 00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:23,840 Speaker 3: broader society from October athon. 500 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 1: But we wanted to make sure that couldn't happen again. 501 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:27,560 Speaker 1: We wanted to. 502 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 3: Avert a wider war, which would have caused even more death, 503 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 3: destruction and suffering and probably would have prolonged Gaza even more. 504 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 3: And so that meant making sure, among other things, that 505 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 3: there was a strong deterrent in place, including Israel's deterrent 506 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 3: to say it would be aggressors who were prepared to 507 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 3: jump in pile in because they thought Israel was down, 508 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:52,160 Speaker 3: if not out, Hasbollah, Iran, the Huthies, etc. Don't do it, 509 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,399 Speaker 3: and so we had to preserve Israel's deterrent we wanted 510 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,640 Speaker 3: to get We thought the best way to end this 511 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:01,720 Speaker 3: was through the deal that we ultimately got, the cease 512 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 3: fire and hostage deal. 513 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 1: But part of the problem was part of. 514 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 3: The challenge was that Hamas was constantly strong arming things 515 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:13,480 Speaker 3: because of two factors. One, it thought the cavalry was 516 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 3: eventually going to come to the rescue the Iranians, has Belah, 517 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,560 Speaker 3: et cetera, and until it was clear, and that didn't 518 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:22,480 Speaker 3: happen until really September of twenty twenty four, with the 519 00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:27,000 Speaker 3: death of Nasralla with other leaders who were taken out 520 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:33,840 Speaker 3: by the Israelis, with the decimation, if not well or 521 00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,560 Speaker 3: diminishment at least of has Blot it self. That wasn't 522 00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:40,280 Speaker 3: clear till then, and that notion of the cavalry coming 523 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 3: to the rescue was still there. The second thing that 524 00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,440 Speaker 3: was really problematic was that, and we know this from 525 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 3: all the information we had, Hamas was looking for any 526 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:54,359 Speaker 3: gaps between US and Israel and Israel's other supporters, and 527 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,200 Speaker 3: as soon as they saw something emerge, they would step back. 528 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:01,959 Speaker 3: So in public it was critical that we preserve as 529 00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:06,120 Speaker 3: much solidarity as possible, even as in private we were 530 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:11,160 Speaker 3: hammering them every single day on humanitaran assistance for Palestinian people, 531 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:15,480 Speaker 3: on civilian casualties, and of course they were operating in 532 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 3: a unique environment where Hamas was hiding among and below 533 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 3: all of the civilian infrastructure and civilians themselves, and schools 534 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 3: and mosques and hospitals. That doesn't excuse some of the 535 00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 3: actions that Israel took in trying to get at Hamas 536 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 3: not at Palestinians, but it is necessary to understand that 537 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 3: that was part of the environment. I also think, at 538 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 3: the end of the day, this is just my judgment 539 00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,359 Speaker 3: and I may be wrong, that this was perceived in 540 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,639 Speaker 3: Israel among the vast majority of the population, not just 541 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,880 Speaker 3: Prime mistery Netnyahu people in his government, but the vast 542 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,200 Speaker 3: majority of the population, including many who don't like him 543 00:27:55,200 --> 00:28:00,440 Speaker 3: at all, to be an existential matter, irrespect active of 544 00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,920 Speaker 3: what we did or anyone else did, they were likely 545 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:03,960 Speaker 3: to continue with. 546 00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:06,160 Speaker 1: Or without us. 547 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 3: So for us, it was how do we try, how 548 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,320 Speaker 3: do we bring this to an end as quickly and 549 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 3: effectively as possible, again making sure that it's not likely 550 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:18,920 Speaker 3: to happen again, averting a wider war, and all the 551 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:20,840 Speaker 3: while trying to look out for people who are caught 552 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 3: in this horrific crossfire. 553 00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:24,679 Speaker 2: Is it wrong to look at this as a continuum 554 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:28,920 Speaker 2: that Prime Minister Netnahu is able to prosecute the war 555 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,760 Speaker 2: in the way in which he wanted. That led him 556 00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:35,199 Speaker 2: to feeling bold enough to take these strikes in concert 557 00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 2: with the United States. 558 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,440 Speaker 3: Certainly there's a profound connection there because I think in 559 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 3: the past he has probably been reluctant to go at 560 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,360 Speaker 3: Iran directly because of the threat of retaliation a response 561 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:51,080 Speaker 3: from Hesbolah, But with Hesbolah vastly diminished, even though they 562 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:54,960 Speaker 3: did respond, not in such a significant way, and by 563 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 3: the way, something truly remarkable. The Prime Minister of Lebanon 564 00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:03,920 Speaker 3: denounced Hesbola for getting into this and firing it at Israel. 565 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,280 Speaker 3: That's remarkable. But for sure I think the Israel is, yes, 566 00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:10,000 Speaker 3: we're in a position where something they hesitated to do 567 00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:12,480 Speaker 3: in the past, that is direct confrontation with Iran because 568 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,280 Speaker 3: of the likelihood that others would get in and go 569 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:19,120 Speaker 3: at them, that was taken away and that did open 570 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:20,720 Speaker 3: the door to them. 571 00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 1: Doing what they've done. 572 00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,600 Speaker 2: More from my interview with former Secretary of State Anthony 573 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:38,960 Speaker 2: Blincoln after the break, I want to wrap up with 574 00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:41,640 Speaker 2: where this leaves us, where this leaves the world. And 575 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 2: Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada spoke recently and he 576 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:46,120 Speaker 2: said this is just another example of what he's talked 577 00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:49,520 Speaker 2: about before, this rupture in the global order that that's 578 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:51,320 Speaker 2: happened on two counts here. There have been two failures. 579 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:53,560 Speaker 2: The first of which was the multilateral institutions that we've 580 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,680 Speaker 2: relied on weren't able to constrain Iran effectively. 581 00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:57,080 Speaker 1: That's one. 582 00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:59,640 Speaker 2: The second is you have the US and Israel now 583 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,680 Speaker 2: going it together without the consent of the UN or 584 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,520 Speaker 2: other multi latteral institutions. Do you agree with him as 585 00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:07,840 Speaker 2: he talks about the way that that hedge of Mooney 586 00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:09,200 Speaker 2: the global order has changed. 587 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 3: Look, we're very much at an inflection point in the 588 00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:15,880 Speaker 3: global order, in the rules based order that we spent 589 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 3: eighty years building up, and that was premised on one 590 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:26,400 Speaker 3: I think profound insight, and that was enlightened self interest, 591 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:30,360 Speaker 3: the notion that the success and strength of others would be. 592 00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:31,080 Speaker 1: On own as well. 593 00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,640 Speaker 3: And we were able to build a system that avoided 594 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,360 Speaker 3: other countries ganging up against us, as is usually the 595 00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 3: case when one country rises above the others. 596 00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:41,600 Speaker 1: We had new. 597 00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,560 Speaker 3: Markets for all the stuff we wanted to sell. We 598 00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:47,520 Speaker 3: had new partners to deal with different conflicts, different problems. 599 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:51,240 Speaker 3: We had new allies to deter regression, especially with NATO. 600 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 3: And now that system is being put in for now 601 00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:58,720 Speaker 3: at least in the dust bin and being replaced with 602 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,360 Speaker 3: their different versions of this. People believe that the president's 603 00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 3: engaged in going back to a kind of spheres of 604 00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:05,360 Speaker 3: influenced world where the Russians do what they want and 605 00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:07,480 Speaker 3: they're part of the world, The Chinese do what they want, 606 00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 3: except maybe on the economic issues in their part, and 607 00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,160 Speaker 3: we do what we want to do in our part, 608 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,440 Speaker 3: particularly in the Western hemisphere. And then you've got these 609 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:20,480 Speaker 3: problematic areas that are dealt with by force. That's a 610 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 3: profound thing, and that's what's happening now. But I think 611 00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:30,520 Speaker 3: at the same time, and this is what's maybe most 612 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:34,040 Speaker 3: frustrating of all in the Middle East, is that there's 613 00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:39,800 Speaker 3: also an extraordinary opportunity if very big, if this does 614 00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 3: produce some kind of real change in Iran, then you 615 00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,520 Speaker 3: have the prospect of a region that heads in a 616 00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 3: very different direction, that is integrated with its people, it's 617 00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:57,000 Speaker 3: moving back and forth, it's economies integrated, greater success, greater 618 00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:01,480 Speaker 3: prosperity for folks. But there remains one catch to that 619 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,480 Speaker 3: vision besides how Iran resolves, and that's the question of 620 00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:09,040 Speaker 3: Israelis and Palestinians. The truly big vision right now would 621 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:12,880 Speaker 3: be to actually resolve that question, not to try to 622 00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:16,440 Speaker 3: put it under the rug. Yet Again, the bottom line 623 00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:20,640 Speaker 3: is this, there are roughly seven million Jews in Israel. 624 00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:25,160 Speaker 3: They're about two million Arabs five million Palestinians between the 625 00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,160 Speaker 3: West Bank and Gaza. No one is going anywhere, despite 626 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,040 Speaker 3: the efforts of some on both sides to make that happen. 627 00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:34,640 Speaker 3: And so tell me how this ends. I don't see 628 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 3: how this ends without some kind of genuine political accommodation 629 00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 3: that realizes the rights of Palestinians. This is the moment 630 00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:44,520 Speaker 3: for that big vision because that brings with it something 631 00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:48,360 Speaker 3: incredibly powerful, normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, 632 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:50,600 Speaker 3: and then potentially other countries will follow suit, from Cutter 633 00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 3: to Indonesia. And then if the Iranian problem is diminished 634 00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,080 Speaker 3: and Iran really has to face a choice between being 635 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:03,920 Speaker 3: a pariah gadfly or mending its ways, I think that's 636 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:09,040 Speaker 3: the most likely way we're actually going to see real change. Unfortunately, tragically, 637 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:12,600 Speaker 3: given the trauma on all sides after October seventh, on 638 00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:15,400 Speaker 3: the Israeli side and among Palestinians, it's awfully hard to 639 00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:17,440 Speaker 3: get there. But that's where you need people of vision 640 00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:20,760 Speaker 3: to try to move things in that direction, there is 641 00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,880 Speaker 3: actually an opportunity to do that. I worry that that 642 00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,320 Speaker 3: opportunity will not be will not be seized, and we're 643 00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:31,880 Speaker 3: going to just see a continuation among Israelis and Palestinians 644 00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:35,240 Speaker 3: and also iran Is again likely in this moment, if 645 00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:39,200 Speaker 3: I had to bet again, we're replacing one Iotola for another, 646 00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:41,680 Speaker 3: and the nature of the regime in this moment doesn't 647 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,240 Speaker 3: seem likely to change. I hope, I'm pleasantly surprised and 648 00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:46,360 Speaker 3: the Iranians get the leadership that they deserve. 649 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:48,480 Speaker 1: But the jury's very much out on that. 650 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:50,920 Speaker 2: Something you warned about during your tenure Secretary of State 651 00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,280 Speaker 2: was the role that China could play and subverting or 652 00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:57,240 Speaker 2: reinventing the international order. How do you think about that 653 00:33:57,440 --> 00:33:57,920 Speaker 2: now in this. 654 00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:01,120 Speaker 3: Moment, Well, you know, nature of wars a vacuum. If 655 00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:04,680 Speaker 3: we're disengaged, if we're not leading in the effort to 656 00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:08,200 Speaker 3: shape that order, then China's going to fill the void. 657 00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:10,719 Speaker 3: The flip side of that coin, David, is we've got 658 00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:14,000 Speaker 3: to be doing it with allies and partners. We need 659 00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:18,120 Speaker 3: in all of these problem areas to be working in concert, 660 00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,200 Speaker 3: whether it's dealing with the problems that China poses, We're 661 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,680 Speaker 3: much stronger when we're allied and partner. When dealing with 662 00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,040 Speaker 3: China loan, we're twenty or twenty five percent world GDP. 663 00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:31,080 Speaker 3: When we're aligned with the Europeans, with Japan, Korea, India, 664 00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,960 Speaker 3: we're suddenly fifty or sixty percent. That's a lot harder, 665 00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:38,480 Speaker 3: bigger weight that China has to account for. Last question 666 00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:42,880 Speaker 3: is what this war and around means for President Trump's 667 00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:48,120 Speaker 3: other ambitions that Cuba, be that Greenland continued project in Venezuela. 668 00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:50,160 Speaker 3: How do you think about what this may or may 669 00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:53,480 Speaker 3: not lead to. Well, in some ways, around's the outlier 670 00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,480 Speaker 3: because these other areas that you just mentioned are all 671 00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:59,960 Speaker 3: within what would be our so called sphere of influence. 672 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,800 Speaker 3: And that's why I said, you know before, the President 673 00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,279 Speaker 3: seems to see the world in terms of these spheres 674 00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:08,120 Speaker 3: of influence, and anything within our sphere we should, in 675 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,520 Speaker 3: one way or another control. And there's kind of a 676 00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:14,319 Speaker 3: very nineteenth century view that actually controlling the territory is 677 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:18,880 Speaker 3: the most most important thing, never mind that there's absolutely 678 00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:20,120 Speaker 3: no need to do that. I mean, in the case 679 00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,919 Speaker 3: of Greenland, simply asking would have gotten the right answer 680 00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 3: in terms of putting more military forces there or striking 681 00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,120 Speaker 3: deals on their raw materials. 682 00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:32,400 Speaker 1: But that world is spheres of influence. 683 00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:36,040 Speaker 3: World where the big guys on the block, and it 684 00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,960 Speaker 3: is guys in this view, get to do what they 685 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,600 Speaker 3: want in their area. That's the way things were for 686 00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:43,840 Speaker 3: much of the latter part of the nineteenth century. 687 00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:45,560 Speaker 1: But it didn't end well. We ultimately end up with 688 00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:46,360 Speaker 1: World War One. 689 00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,600 Speaker 3: I'm equally concerned, David, with another alliance that's been shattered, 690 00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:54,440 Speaker 3: and that's an internal alliance. You know, when we started 691 00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:57,880 Speaker 3: the twentieth century, there was not a major pursuit of 692 00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,440 Speaker 3: science in which the United States led the world. By 693 00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:02,279 Speaker 3: the time we got to the twenty first century, there 694 00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,960 Speaker 3: was not a major pursuit in science and technology where 695 00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:07,320 Speaker 3: the United States did not lead the world. That didn't 696 00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,800 Speaker 3: happen by accident. It happened because we built an alliance 697 00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:15,720 Speaker 3: between the federal government, universities, research institutions, national labs. The 698 00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,480 Speaker 3: amount of GDP that we dedicated to research and development 699 00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:20,799 Speaker 3: went from about one and a half percent after World 700 00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,240 Speaker 3: War II to by the time President Biden left office, 701 00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:27,360 Speaker 3: three and a half percent, and that produced extraordinary innovation. 702 00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,960 Speaker 3: Coupled with this welcome mat for the best and brightest 703 00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:34,080 Speaker 3: from around the world who would do their studies here, 704 00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:37,600 Speaker 3: attracted by being with the best and brightest and an 705 00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:42,160 Speaker 3: open system. Then they stayed around and created things that 706 00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,480 Speaker 3: made us a leader in all of these fields, which 707 00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:48,080 Speaker 3: redounded to our economy and redounded to our national security. 708 00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,960 Speaker 3: As that system is being blown up, I think that 709 00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,600 Speaker 3: may be the biggest threat of all. If we lose that, 710 00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:56,040 Speaker 3: we lose a lot. 711 00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:58,920 Speaker 1: Mister Secretary. Thank you very much. Great to be with you. 712 00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:04,560 Speaker 1: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura. 713 00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,360 Speaker 2: To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access 714 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,520 Speaker 2: to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg 715 00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:14,040 Speaker 2: dot com slash podcast offer. You can watch this episode 716 00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:16,560 Speaker 2: on YouTube. If you like this episode, make sure to 717 00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,080 Speaker 2: follow and review The Big Take wherever you listen to podcasts. 718 00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,960 Speaker 2: It helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. We'll 719 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:22,759 Speaker 2: be back tomorrow.