WEBVTT - Recession Risk Rising Amid Banking Turmoil

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia for this Monday, March twenty

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<v Speaker 1>seventh in Hong Kong, Sunday March twenty sixth in New York,

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<v Speaker 1>and coming up today, Minneapolis Fed chief Neil Kashkari says

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<v Speaker 1>recent bank turmoil has boosted the risk of a US recession.

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<v Speaker 1>The US may boost emergency help for banks, and Credit

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<v Speaker 1>Suite could face a possible probe and discipline for how

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<v Speaker 1>the bank was run even before its collapse. Putin talks

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<v Speaker 1>establishing basis for tactical nuclear weapons. Taiwan loses Hon Doris

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<v Speaker 1>as an ally. Taiwan's President Tide to visit the US

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<v Speaker 1>this week. Singapore President lad of Asit China. I'm Ed

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<v Speaker 1>Baxter with Global News. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Daybreak Asia, the business news you need to start your

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<v Speaker 1>day in just one fifteen minute podcast available on Apples, Spotify,

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business app and everywhere you get your podcasts.

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning, I'm Brian Curtis and I'm Doug Prisoner. Here

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<v Speaker 1>are the stories we're following today. Minneapolis Fed President Neil

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<v Speaker 1>Kashkari saying the recent bank turmoil has increased the risk

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<v Speaker 1>of a US recession. Is Kashkari speaking on CBS Face

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<v Speaker 1>the Nation program right now. What's unclear for US is

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<v Speaker 1>how much of these banking stresses are leading to a

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<v Speaker 1>widespread credit crunch, and then that credit crunch would then

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<v Speaker 1>slow down the economy. This is something we are monitoring

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<v Speaker 1>very very closely. That's Neil Kashkari heard right here on Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>Kashkari said that the US banking system is sound and

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<v Speaker 1>banks have strong capital positions and a lot of liquidity,

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<v Speaker 1>but he added that he will take some time for

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<v Speaker 1>the current problems to fully work themselves out. Kashkari also

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<v Speaker 1>thinks it's too soon to judge what the bank crisis

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<v Speaker 1>means for the economy and for monetary policy. The Fed

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<v Speaker 1>will meet next on the second of May. Meantime, we

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<v Speaker 1>are hearing US authorities are making moves to help all banks.

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<v Speaker 1>This would include First Republic. That story from Bloomberg Susanna

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<v Speaker 1>Palmer Our sources authorities are considering expanding an emergency lending

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<v Speaker 1>facility for banks in ways that would give First Republic

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<v Speaker 1>Bank more time to shore up its balance sheet. Officials

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<v Speaker 1>have yet to decide on what support they could provide.

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<v Speaker 1>First Republic if any, and an expansion of the Federal

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<v Speaker 1>reserves offering is one of several options under consideration. Even

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<v Speaker 1>short of that step, watchdogs see First Republic is stable

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<v Speaker 1>enough to operate without any immediate intervention as the company

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<v Speaker 1>and its advisers try to work out a deal to

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<v Speaker 1>shore up the balance sheet. Representatives for the Fed, FDIC

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<v Speaker 1>and First Republic decline to comment. Susanna Palmer Bloomberg Daybreak Asia.

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<v Speaker 1>Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers wants US regulators to pledge

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<v Speaker 1>that they'll back uninsured deposits in any banks that fail.

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<v Speaker 1>Summer has said that this would provide very substantial confidence

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<v Speaker 1>to the banking system. They can do that within their

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<v Speaker 1>existing authorities simply by being clear that in the event

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<v Speaker 1>of failures, given the highly fevered environment with respect to

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<v Speaker 1>contagion right now, they are prepared to use systemic risk

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<v Speaker 1>exemptions to allow the FDIC to pay off depositors with

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<v Speaker 1>assurance that those funds will come from the banking industry.

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<v Speaker 1>Summers also said that officials should recognize that regulation now

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<v Speaker 1>needs to take account of the digital banking and high

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<v Speaker 1>interest rates that exist, because he says that's a condition

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<v Speaker 1>where deposits can shift much faster than in the past.

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<v Speaker 1>We are hearing two banks are both vying for what's

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<v Speaker 1>left of Silicon Valley Bank. They are Valley National Bank Corp.

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<v Speaker 1>And First Citizens Bank Shares. SVB collapsed earlier this month

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<v Speaker 1>and then was seized by the FDIC. We are told

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<v Speaker 1>these two regional banks submit that separate bids before a

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<v Speaker 1>deadline last Friday. Now, the FDIC has been seeking to

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<v Speaker 1>sell SVB for about two weeks. Now, a winner could

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<v Speaker 1>be chosen before the end of the weekend. No final

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<v Speaker 1>decision has been made, and the FDIC could decide to

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<v Speaker 1>hold onto SVB or sell it to someone else Bran

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<v Speaker 1>and to another troubled bank. Credit Swiss may face a

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<v Speaker 1>probe and disciplinary action over how the bank was running

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<v Speaker 1>the lead up to its collapse and its eventual takeover

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<v Speaker 1>by UBS. That story from Bloomberg. Jevon Mehn, the Swiss

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<v Speaker 1>banking regulator FIMMAH, told the Swiss German newspaper that Credit

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<v Speaker 1>Suisse has a cultural problem. That problem translated into a

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<v Speaker 1>lack of accountability. FIA president Marlene Amstead said it is

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<v Speaker 1>not clear who is responsible for what policies and that

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<v Speaker 1>led to a negligent handling of risks. She said disciplinary

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<v Speaker 1>proceedings remain an open question. FIMMA has been accused of

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<v Speaker 1>failing to act early enough, and said it denied that, saying, quote,

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<v Speaker 1>we intervened early and intensively in Hong Kong. I'm von Mann,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. I'm Brian Curtis, along with Doug Krisner. Doug,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, there's a pretty big gap between what the

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<v Speaker 1>equity markets are doing with the newsflow that appears to

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<v Speaker 1>be screaming at us. We're taught to respect the price action,

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<v Speaker 1>but it may be odd to some that the SNP

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<v Speaker 1>five hundred was actually up last week. It's slightly up

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<v Speaker 1>for the year, and it's still right in the middle

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<v Speaker 1>of a range of thirty eight hundred to forty two

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<v Speaker 1>hundred that we've been in for about ten months. And

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<v Speaker 1>I would argue as well that the ten year treasury

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<v Speaker 1>is also at about the same level that it was

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<v Speaker 1>in September. So even though I mean, the real volatility

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<v Speaker 1>is at the short end of the curve, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>as investors try to price out this terminal rate, and

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<v Speaker 1>that one has been moving and we have seen a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of strength, I think I'll agree with this, Brian,

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<v Speaker 1>in the tech space a big beneficiary, kind of a

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<v Speaker 1>haven bit, I would argue, especially when you consider that

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<v Speaker 1>some of these companies have very strong cash balance sheets

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<v Speaker 1>or cash positions on their allan sheets, and in a

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<v Speaker 1>time like this, where there's so much turbulence, so much uncertainty,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly as it relates to the banks, tech has become

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<v Speaker 1>a bit of a safe haven. And I think that

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<v Speaker 1>makes the Fed's job a little easier because you can

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<v Speaker 1>imagine how difficult it might be for the Federal Reserve

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<v Speaker 1>to be continuing to raise interest rates if you had

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<v Speaker 1>the SMP five hundred falling two percent every day. I

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to mention as well that you probably pick up

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<v Speaker 1>on this line from Neil Kashkari as I did, where

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<v Speaker 1>he said that it will take time for the current

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<v Speaker 1>problems to work themselves out, if only they would work

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<v Speaker 1>themselves out well. And I think that's what Janet Yellen

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<v Speaker 1>is trying to do. By sending the message to the

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<v Speaker 1>market that the government in some shape or some form

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<v Speaker 1>has the back of some of these banks. That would

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<v Speaker 1>help to engender a bit of confidence. But on the

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<v Speaker 1>inflation side, it's going to be very interesting to see

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<v Speaker 1>what happens in the US at the end of the

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<v Speaker 1>week with that personal consumption expenditures price index. It really

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<v Speaker 1>may put the FED in an even more difficult situation

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<v Speaker 1>with the volatility and the concern about the financial system

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<v Speaker 1>on one hand, and this upward pressure that remains where

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<v Speaker 1>the inflation story is concerned. Yeah, and I was only

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<v Speaker 1>half joking about Kashkari's line. He probably didn't really mean

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<v Speaker 1>that these will work themselves out. He's probably more in

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<v Speaker 1>the camp that Powell and Yelling are in, as you

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<v Speaker 1>suggest that some intervention will be needed and will be forthcoming.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's kind of where we stand on this Monday morning.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, it's time now for Global news. Russian President

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<v Speaker 1>Vladimir Putin says that he is preparing to move tactical

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear weapons into Belarus. At Baxter has Global News from

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<v Speaker 1>the nine to sixty newsroom in San Francisco. Ed. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's exactly what he's saying. Brian. Putin is saying that

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<v Speaker 1>ten aircraft capable of carrying nuclear warheads have already been

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<v Speaker 1>prepared in Belarus and the storage facilities for the weapons

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<v Speaker 1>will be completed by July first. Putin says a US

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<v Speaker 1>as long deployed tactical nuclear weapons on the territory its allies.

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<v Speaker 1>US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on CBS has

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<v Speaker 1>heard here on Bloomberg says, although US intelligence reports no

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<v Speaker 1>significant movement of nuclear weapons, yet he does see obviously

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<v Speaker 1>we would agree that no nuclear war should be fought.

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<v Speaker 1>No nuclear war could be one clearly that would cross

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<v Speaker 1>across a major threshold, and the US says it sees

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<v Speaker 1>no idea now to adjust its policy whatsoever. China has

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<v Speaker 1>also brought up the discussion today, as Congressman Mike Gallagher says,

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<v Speaker 1>the free world had better understand how the Putin She

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<v Speaker 1>relationship works. You need to understand that Putin is she

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<v Speaker 1>Jumping's junior partner. He is She's agent of chaos. Is

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<v Speaker 1>tethered goat in Europe, and if we try and separate

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<v Speaker 1>these these problem sets, I think we're gonna result in

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<v Speaker 1>a jew political posture that's ineffective. Also in the region,

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<v Speaker 1>there the head of the UN's Nuclear Agency will travel

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<v Speaker 1>to this Operasorifia plant on Wednesday, and Russia's claiming a

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<v Speaker 1>Ukrainian drum hit a town about one hundred forty two

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<v Speaker 1>miles south of Moscow. The claim to date has not

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<v Speaker 1>been verified. Taiwan's President Siang Wing to visit the US

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<v Speaker 1>this week. An NSC spokesman, Kirby on CBS has heard

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<v Speaker 1>here on Bloomberg with Margaret Brennan, says, in spite of

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<v Speaker 1>China's protestations, this is nothing out of the norm. I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's important to remember what this is. This is

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<v Speaker 1>a transit, their normals. She's done sixth to long transit.

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<v Speaker 1>She's done sixth Tension with China's never been this high.

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<v Speaker 1>There we are and look, we understand that. And the

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<v Speaker 1>president has said clearly he believes it's important to keep

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<v Speaker 1>the lines of communication with China open. He wants to

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<v Speaker 1>have another conversation with President. She will move in that direction.

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<v Speaker 1>But these transits are normal, particularly for this particular president.

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<v Speaker 1>So I will visit New York and California. Meanwhile, Taiwan

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<v Speaker 1>has lost an ally of decades after Honduras sides with China.

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<v Speaker 1>Honduras now saying it recognizes Taiwan as part of China.

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<v Speaker 1>China Honduras will have no established, no diplomatic ties at

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<v Speaker 1>the ambassarial level, effective immediately. Now it's China and Honduras.

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<v Speaker 1>Brazil's President Luda da Silva has postponed his trip to China.

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<v Speaker 1>His administration says health reasons. It says flu like symptoms.

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<v Speaker 1>Singapore Prime Minister at Lee Sang Hung will begin an

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<v Speaker 1>official visit to China today as scheduled. Itinerary includes meeting

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<v Speaker 1>with President Hijimping. Federal officials are touring the devastation in

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<v Speaker 1>Mississippi today, a town of two thousand absolutely leveled. Aerial

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<v Speaker 1>pictures show a total flattening, looking like a bomb. This

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<v Speaker 1>is a Governor Tate reeves the resources of the people

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<v Speaker 1>here in Rolling Fork, in throughout Mississippi need the help

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<v Speaker 1>is owned the way and a Homeland Security Secretary, Alejandro

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<v Speaker 1>Mayorcas says, it appears these events will continue to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>It is heartbreaking to hear of the loss of life,

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<v Speaker 1>to see the devastation firsthand. It is also, as the

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<v Speaker 1>governor expressed, inspiring to see the people of Mississippi come together.

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<v Speaker 1>Myorcas says federal government will help in any way possible.

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<v Speaker 1>So far, the death count there in Mississippi is twenty five.

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<v Speaker 1>Global News powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalist

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<v Speaker 1>and analysts over one hundred and twenty countries in San Francisco.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Ed Baxter and this is Bloomberg. I'm Brian Curtis

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<v Speaker 1>in Hong Kong along with Rashad Salana. This is Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>GAB Break Asia. Our guest is Carol Schleife, CIO at

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<v Speaker 1>BIMO Family Office. Carol, great to have you with us,

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<v Speaker 1>and thanks for the double duty, the extra duty of

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<v Speaker 1>a Sunday evening to join us here on the program.

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<v Speaker 1>As we were saying earlier, all things considered, the markets

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<v Speaker 1>are remaining relatively calm. Why first up, thanks for having

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<v Speaker 1>me on calm. I think a piece of it is

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<v Speaker 1>is we're definitely in that waiting c mode, trying to

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<v Speaker 1>figure out will there be more fallout from the regional

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<v Speaker 1>or the midsized banking issues going on in the United

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<v Speaker 1>States where there'll be more global issues. But on the

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<v Speaker 1>other hand, we have strong economic numbers coming through. The

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<v Speaker 1>construction numbers are good, Employment is solid, Inflation is coming down,

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<v Speaker 1>not as fast as the fit or anybody else wants,

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<v Speaker 1>but it is coming down. And it's important to remember

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<v Speaker 1>too when we get into the back half of the year,

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<v Speaker 1>the comparisons will be easier. Just by default, so the

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<v Speaker 1>math will make it look like inflation is coming down,

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<v Speaker 1>even though we might not feel it as much. But

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<v Speaker 1>I think the markets are definitely taking a weight and

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<v Speaker 1>see approach, are gonna look at a lot of the

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<v Speaker 1>incoming data for a change, which we haven't. We were

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<v Speaker 1>told a couple weeks ago we were going to be

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<v Speaker 1>a lot more data dependent than we've been able to

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<v Speaker 1>be in the last couple of weeks. And it's actually

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<v Speaker 1>really delightful, as you also mentioned earlier, to have a

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<v Speaker 1>weekend that isn't full of all kinds of coming part medos.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think the markets are taking that weight. Is

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<v Speaker 1>see approach just trying to see how it plays out,

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<v Speaker 1>And if you've got a diversified portfolio, that's probably the

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<v Speaker 1>thing to do, to just sit tight and let the

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<v Speaker 1>news fall and make sure that you're staying adaptable at

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<v Speaker 1>the edges, but to sit pretty tight and just watch

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<v Speaker 1>it come in, Carol. But what's happening with the banks

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<v Speaker 1>is something which is noteworthy. I mean, sure they probably

0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:17.000
<v Speaker 1>be backstop, but that's not the point here. Small bank

0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:20.480
<v Speaker 1>deposits continues to plunge. We've got perhaps in you know,

0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:23.320
<v Speaker 1>the next age eight fighting which comes up as well,

0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:26.440
<v Speaker 1>like you to see another another big, big fool in

0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:28.960
<v Speaker 1>those deposits, especially these small banks, and you know this

0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:32.360
<v Speaker 1>is providing selling us. There's a liquidity issue here, and

0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:35.400
<v Speaker 1>it's clear to the Fed as well, But you know,

0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:38.040
<v Speaker 1>what should they be doing? What's twenty five basis points

0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:42.480
<v Speaker 1>of mistake? Last time? I'm not sure it was a mistake.

0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:47.040
<v Speaker 1>Although they were pushing, probably pushing the envelope, we probably

0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:50.079
<v Speaker 1>would have preferred to have seen them sit steady some

0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:52.160
<v Speaker 1>of the day. Some of the incoming data is still

0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:56.040
<v Speaker 1>conflicting on those banks, because we've seen some anecdotal stuff

0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:58.960
<v Speaker 1>that it's stabilized a bit in the last week or so.

0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:02.840
<v Speaker 1>MP people are starting to come around psychologically, some are

0:14:03.040 --> 0:14:05.960
<v Speaker 1>to the thought of I still want my dollars to

0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:11.720
<v Speaker 1>be circulating in my local economy as opposed to the bigger,

0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:15.280
<v Speaker 1>broader banks. But it is tough because you know, it's

0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:17.720
<v Speaker 1>important to remember that when we had the GFC, we

0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:20.040
<v Speaker 1>didn't even have the iPhone then. So we've got a

0:14:20.080 --> 0:14:23.720
<v Speaker 1>lot more transmission, a lot more rapid transmission, a lot

0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:26.920
<v Speaker 1>more ability for people to be able to shift stuff around.

0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:31.440
<v Speaker 1>But they also have to remember, regardless of what the

0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:36.120
<v Speaker 1>Treasury does for backstopping the banks. Anything up to two

0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:40.720
<v Speaker 1>fifties already covered. Yeah, yeah, for most people that's enough.

0:14:40.800 --> 0:14:44.440
<v Speaker 1>But you had a lot of institutions, a lot of companies,

0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:47.120
<v Speaker 1>a lot of vcs that had, you know, forty fifty

0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:49.880
<v Speaker 1>sixty million in Silicon Valley Bank. Hey, I was just

0:14:49.960 --> 0:14:53.680
<v Speaker 1>noticing here that in the swapt's market there's a twenty

0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:57.200
<v Speaker 1>six percent chance that the FED would move to four

0:14:57.280 --> 0:15:00.360
<v Speaker 1>point eight six and that is and would be the

0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:03.600
<v Speaker 1>terminal rate for the years. So if you put that

0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:05.560
<v Speaker 1>together and by the end of the year it's at

0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:08.960
<v Speaker 1>three ninety seven, so that would appear to be three cuts.

0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:11.280
<v Speaker 1>And a lot of people are saying, wow, that's really

0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:13.920
<v Speaker 1>in conflict with what the FED is saying because j

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:17.880
<v Speaker 1>Pala said didn't anticipate any cuts. But they are data dependent, right,

0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:20.440
<v Speaker 1>so a lot can change. You don't really need to

0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:26.360
<v Speaker 1>take palace comments to the bank, not necessarily, but we

0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:32.120
<v Speaker 1>don't see cuts by year and the futureist markets have

0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:36.360
<v Speaker 1>been discounting cuts against the FED and fighting the FED

0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:39.280
<v Speaker 1>for over a year and that hasn't necessarily to be

0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:42.240
<v Speaker 1>very prophetic either. And so I think a piece of

0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:45.600
<v Speaker 1>it is is it's just in a long career. It's

0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:48.480
<v Speaker 1>really interesting to me to see the dichotomy between the

0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:51.400
<v Speaker 1>equity traders and the fixed income traders and the fixed

0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:54.000
<v Speaker 1>income traders and what the Feds saying, because they tend

0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:57.320
<v Speaker 1>to go more hand in hand and we just don't

0:15:57.360 --> 0:15:59.400
<v Speaker 1>see that cut. I mean, that would imply a really

0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:02.640
<v Speaker 1>seems like it would imply a really serious recession in

0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:05.160
<v Speaker 1>order to get those cuts at the back end, and

0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:09.080
<v Speaker 1>the curves all come down, and that's yeah. I mean,

0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:12.160
<v Speaker 1>even the bond market has the two year at three

0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:15.120
<v Speaker 1>point seven six percent, so that's fully one hundred basiness

0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.200
<v Speaker 1>points below where the Fed funds rate is well. And

0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:20.880
<v Speaker 1>the interesting thing is is depending on where banks price

0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:24.400
<v Speaker 1>or deposits, that may slow the outflow of deposits because

0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:26.160
<v Speaker 1>one of the things that a lot of points is

0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.000
<v Speaker 1>I've looked at it as they said, look, banks aren't

0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:31.040
<v Speaker 1>paying me to sit in deposits, so I'm going to

0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:32.720
<v Speaker 1>move it into a money market to counter a short

0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:35.240
<v Speaker 1>term treasury letter, and it's a short term treasury letter

0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:39.120
<v Speaker 1>doesn't yield what a bank will give you on the deposits. Now,

0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:43.200
<v Speaker 1>that'll pressure some of those banks that are pressure than

0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:45.320
<v Speaker 1>that interest margin because the banks are forced to pay

0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:48.680
<v Speaker 1>more to hold the deposit. But so it's tricky, and

0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:50.680
<v Speaker 1>I think that's what the Fed's trying to do, sort

0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:54.400
<v Speaker 1>of imply that the Fed's going to cut with all

0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:58.480
<v Speaker 1>of this this very narrow tight rope. It's almost as

0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:00.640
<v Speaker 1>if they were on a regular size tight rope and

0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:03.080
<v Speaker 1>now they're walking on a thread because they're well, tell

0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:05.520
<v Speaker 1>me Carrol here, I mean, let's all forget you know,

0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:08.080
<v Speaker 1>we're talking about the deposit side of things. I mean, certainly,

0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:10.560
<v Speaker 1>but you know, if you want to get a load,

0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:12.440
<v Speaker 1>it's going to be much much harder, going to need

0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:16.919
<v Speaker 1>more collateral. You're probably going to see spreads wide. Not

0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:19.400
<v Speaker 1>on top of that, rejection rates are lightly to rise,

0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:21.359
<v Speaker 1>and you know that could also spread the non banks

0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:25.280
<v Speaker 1>and the consumer lending that that's focused on. So in

0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:27.520
<v Speaker 1>a sense, that's in a way doing the fred's job

0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:30.680
<v Speaker 1>as well, is it not. I think a piece of it,

0:17:30.920 --> 0:17:34.760
<v Speaker 1>And I think it's important to remember that business goes

0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:37.760
<v Speaker 1>on anyway. I mean, two people are my very two

0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:41.919
<v Speaker 1>younger millennials are my very narrow circle of folks around

0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:45.760
<v Speaker 1>me have signed mortgages in the last month, closed moved

0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:48.080
<v Speaker 1>in the last couple of weeks and stuff still happened.

0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:51.879
<v Speaker 1>You've still got you still got yes and no. I

0:17:51.920 --> 0:17:55.120
<v Speaker 1>mean there are at the point too, because demographically you've

0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:57.520
<v Speaker 1>got a whole big segment of the economy that's walking

0:17:57.520 --> 0:17:59.600
<v Speaker 1>at it. Say, unless they were over seven percent, now

0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:02.240
<v Speaker 1>they're down to six six and a half percent, and

0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:05.680
<v Speaker 1>what if they go to eight or nine and were

0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:07.919
<v Speaker 1>we want out of the city and we want a

0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:11.200
<v Speaker 1>yard and a grill and a dog and yeah, so

0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:13.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, and so you've got that piece. But you've

0:18:13.880 --> 0:18:17.200
<v Speaker 1>also got businesses are still going to do stuff done

0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:20.520
<v Speaker 1>because demographically you've got people in their businesses that said, look,

0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:22.800
<v Speaker 1>I was in to sell this business in twenty twenty

0:18:22.920 --> 0:18:26.240
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic hit, so I held off. Now I might

0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:29.240
<v Speaker 1>not get quite what I want, but the buyer has

0:18:29.240 --> 0:18:32.320
<v Speaker 1>some financing lined up, and stuff's still going to happen,

0:18:32.400 --> 0:18:35.640
<v Speaker 1>not just as exuberantly as it would have if we

0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:39.000
<v Speaker 1>were as the early days out of the pandemic. And

0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:42.439
<v Speaker 1>so I think, okay, it just six system tightens itself up.

0:18:43.200 --> 0:18:46.320
<v Speaker 1>Let's distill this down, Carol, in thirty or forty seconds

0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:48.320
<v Speaker 1>into what you're doing in the markets. Where do you

0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:52.360
<v Speaker 1>put fresh money to work? I think the short term

0:18:52.359 --> 0:18:56.520
<v Speaker 1>treasury letters are still pretty attractive. I think looking globally

0:18:56.560 --> 0:19:00.480
<v Speaker 1>at some things because you've been having a diversified folio,

0:19:00.560 --> 0:19:05.720
<v Speaker 1>being looking again at MidCap small cap being not being

0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:08.360
<v Speaker 1>a hero and taking too much risk, but having balanced

0:19:08.400 --> 0:19:12.000
<v Speaker 1>and we actually like a lot of the industrial renaissance

0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:15.240
<v Speaker 1>kinds of companies and where the spending is teeming up

0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:18.600
<v Speaker 1>in a lot of those more traditional value oriented things.

0:19:21.680 --> 0:19:24.560
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, your morning brief on the

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