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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Leye.

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Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the bloomber The

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Speaker 1: emergency Purchase program is going to run at least through

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Speaker 1: the end of March. The reinvest that Huey debt for

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Speaker 1: an extended period of time even after the first rate hikes.

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Speaker 1: So if you believe, let's just say you believe that

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Speaker 1: we'll get a rate hike from the e CP at

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Speaker 1: some point in this cycle, after that, the e c

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Speaker 1: B will still be reinvesting the debts on its balance

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Speaker 1: sheet that they've been buying over the last year. I

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Speaker 1: want to bring in alberta gallo of Algebras on this

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Speaker 1: albert So the CP is going to be in this

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Speaker 1: market for a long long time. How does that shape

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Speaker 1: your view on fixed income in Europe? Good morning. Sometimes

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Speaker 1: the most interesting things that come out of central banks

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Speaker 1: are the things they don't talk about. And there's two

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Speaker 1: big questions here. One is how long are they going

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Speaker 1: to keep going with the emergency purchase program even after

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Speaker 1: the pandemic is over, and it looks like, as you said,

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Speaker 1: that that's going to be with us for a long

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Speaker 1: period of time, even beyond two two UM. And the

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Speaker 1: second one is what happens if there's another crisis. Now,

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Speaker 1: interest rates are already negative. Net supply of European government

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Speaker 1: bonds is negative. This year, d c B is buying

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Speaker 1: more than the governments are issuing, so you know, they've

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Speaker 1: got to think about something new. And that's where you know,

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Speaker 1: some warring scenarios come up for investors, a very very

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Speaker 1: strong financial repression, very low yield to be inflation, even

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Speaker 1: though inflation is pretty low in Europe. Bet So we've

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Speaker 1: got to jump in because what you're talking about is

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Speaker 1: so important. Are you saying that we might not have

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Speaker 1: seen the end of this and that's something new might

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Speaker 1: be coming And I'm not saying anytime soon. I just

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Speaker 1: want to understand the kind of something you're thinking about.

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Speaker 1: You're thinking about equities. Surely we've already done everything we

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Speaker 1: can do on the fixed income side. You know, the

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Speaker 1: biggest question here for investors for the next years is

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Speaker 1: whether governments are going to be able to beat secular stagnation.

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Speaker 1: Now it's it's a moment of celebration in the US

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Speaker 1: with the new presidency and probably the Biding administration has

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Speaker 1: a shot at this with a lot of fiscal stimulus

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Speaker 1: and infrastructure spending. But if you look at Europe, the

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Speaker 1: recovery plan is still very very small, and we've got

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Speaker 1: German elections later this year. It's not exactly the year

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Speaker 1: where you know, the European Union is going to splurge

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Speaker 1: on on fiscal so you know, the things that doesn't

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Speaker 1: talk about is how are they going to get inflation

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Speaker 1: back up, how much more fiscal is needed, and also

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Speaker 1: you know what's the end game for the p P

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Speaker 1: P And it looks like, you know, unless you're seeing

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Speaker 1: Germany spending a lot more, which is unlikely this year.

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Speaker 1: It looks like the emergency purchase program is going to

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Speaker 1: be with us for a much longer period of time,

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Speaker 1: which means savers are getting returns well below inflation. So

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Speaker 1: you know, one of the casualties of the pandemic has

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Speaker 1: been the risk free rate. It's now very very deeply

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Speaker 1: negative and it's going to continue to be like that,

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Speaker 1: especially in Europe. It sounds like a process in search

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Speaker 1: of a theory, albert Ogella, what's the underlying theory here?

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Speaker 1: They literally making it up in the United States of

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Speaker 1: Europe as they go. Our theory is interest rates at

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Speaker 1: the extreme become counter productive. So you know, you've got

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Speaker 1: Argentina with very high interest rates. In theory, they are

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Speaker 1: supposed to cur be inflation, but at some point you

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Speaker 1: have a compounding impact and they become inflationary. Conversely, when

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Speaker 1: you have deeply negative interest rates and they are persistent,

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Speaker 1: they create asset bubbles which burst and then create deflation.

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Speaker 1: They keep zombie companies alive, which reduced productivity. So you

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Speaker 1: really need to shake up the system, do reforms, invest

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Speaker 1: in infrastructure and improve productivity, which the US has as

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Speaker 1: a big shot at with this administration in Europe. In Europe,

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Speaker 1: it's it's much it's a much tougher game to play

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Speaker 1: this year. Meanwhile, Alberto, you have a rather difficult decision

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Speaker 1: as a portfolio manager of whether to just go by

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Speaker 1: the central banks and ignore risk. At a certain point,

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Speaker 1: it makes no fundamental sense for Italian bond yields to

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Speaker 1: be getting lower with respect to German yields as their

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Speaker 1: government basically threatens to fall apart. This is because the

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Speaker 1: e c B has been buying more of their debt.

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Speaker 1: Do you lean into that as a portfolio manager or

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Speaker 1: do you say risk matters? We say risk matters. Last

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Speaker 1: year we were over half in cash in our own

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Speaker 1: Globe of Credit fund before the pandemic hit, and we

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Speaker 1: had a lot of protection on And you know, we're

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Speaker 1: getting to a point where there is where the odds

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Speaker 1: are very much skewed against the investors. So you can

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Speaker 1: make two cents if you're right, but if you're wrong,

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Speaker 1: you can lose five or ten. And the BTP example

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Speaker 1: is spot on. So we're trying to preserve the odds

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Speaker 1: to be at least equal or in favor of our investors.

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Speaker 1: So we're not buying BTPs here, we're not buying long

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Speaker 1: data investment grade debt. But there are some areas where

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Speaker 1: they're still upside in some of the perty free countries,

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Speaker 1: in convertible debt, in some of the companies which are

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Speaker 1: going to be the companies of the future. So you know,

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Speaker 1: we're we're pretty cautious, but we still have some upside

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Speaker 1: bets on the reopening of the economy. Alberta Smart, Thank

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Speaker 1: you so much. Alberta god with Algebras Spence here on

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Speaker 1: an easy be looking for a solution. Speaking of hate,

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Speaker 1: Mally loves to send me hate, Helen Apple. Michael Holland

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Speaker 1: joins US now Holland and Company. He's paid a lot

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Speaker 1: of taxes on capital gains over the year. Michael, what

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Speaker 1: do you do with the stock that's a melt up

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Speaker 1: and you've got a tax obligation? Do? How do you

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Speaker 1: handle that? One of the things you can do is

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Speaker 1: to choose your favorite university. You had the Lafayette Endowment

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Speaker 1: head on a few minutes ago. Give your appreciated stock

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Speaker 1: to you the university of your choice for financial aid

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Speaker 1: for some of the students. How is that you get

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Speaker 1: the tax right off and help education and the equalization

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Speaker 1: of opportunity that Jonathan Farrell was just talking about. Well,

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Speaker 1: Michael'll let you worry about how to deal with the

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Speaker 1: tax bill. There is a question of how to deal

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Speaker 1: with risk right now and how to even assess it.

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Speaker 1: And I gotta say I was really struck by Seth

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Speaker 1: Klarman this about post Group when he wrote in the

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Speaker 1: Financial to note that was obtained by the financial time,

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Speaker 1: so so much stimulus being deployed. Trying to figure out

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Speaker 1: if the economy is in recession is like trying to

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Speaker 1: assess if you had a fever after you just took

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Speaker 1: a large dose of aspirin. He likened the current situation

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Speaker 1: to investors being frogs boiled in water slowly becoming desensitized

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Speaker 1: to risk. How do you navigate as an investor? Seth

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Speaker 1: Klarman has been brilliantly investing for decades and would never

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Speaker 1: ignore what he's saying. I think right now, he said,

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Speaker 1: I'm mindful of where the market psyche is, and with

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Speaker 1: Janet Yellen pairing up with Jerome Power right now, I

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Speaker 1: think they are panacea for people concerned about an overvalued market,

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Speaker 1: that the market could become even more overvalued. Uh, the

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Speaker 1: trick will be a year from now when we I

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Speaker 1: hope we're talking that that the the economy has fulfilled

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Speaker 1: some of the heightened expectations about when the vaccine gets

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Speaker 1: out there. I was interested to see a Bloomberg blurb

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Speaker 1: yesterday about Amazon now moving in to help out with

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Speaker 1: the distribution of the vaccine. I think we could get

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Speaker 1: some positive surprises rather than negative surprise over the next

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Speaker 1: couple of quarters. On the vaccine front. If that happens,

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Speaker 1: I think some of the uh, the animal spirits in

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Speaker 1: the economy may start to waken up if the gift

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Speaker 1: me for base so cynical, Michael, But do you think

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Speaker 1: that big text says the rioting on the wall? And

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Speaker 1: why is Amazon wait so long to come in and

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Speaker 1: talk about this what it swits? And White so long

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Speaker 1: to band Donald Trump? It all seems a little bit

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Speaker 1: convenient that all of this has happened basically in the

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Speaker 1: month of the incoming administration is coming through. I think

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Speaker 1: your cynicism, John is well placed. UH. And I think

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Speaker 1: that the UH people who run these companies have seen

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Speaker 1: where we're going UH. And I think there was more

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Speaker 1: than just Netflix yesterday when the ox like Amazon cloud

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Speaker 1: to the upside dramatically. I think there's a new sheriff,

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Speaker 1: and I think it's I think it's going to be

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Speaker 1: I think that the tech companies are going to have

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Speaker 1: some some come up and over the next year, but

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Speaker 1: I think overall things probably are gonna be okay. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: given your role at State Street UH and at some

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Speaker 1: of the biggest asset managers over the years, seeing the

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Speaker 1: transformation in that industry, what are you expecting in the

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Speaker 1: years ahead under the Biden administration when it comes to

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Speaker 1: consolidation and asset management into the hands of just a

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Speaker 1: few behemoths, I think so long as the behemous behave themselves,

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Speaker 1: it's difficult to make a serious political headway um in

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Speaker 1: terms of attacking them. I think the which happened Lisa

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Speaker 1: over the last decade is, in particularly the last few years,

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Speaker 1: UH is a dramatic favorable, dramatically favorable position for the

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Speaker 1: people listening to the call here watching the call with

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Speaker 1: respect to they just don't pay very much to have

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Speaker 1: have their money taken care of, and so the fees

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Speaker 1: continue to cascade down. It's a very favorable development. So

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Speaker 1: the behemous if they if they don't manage it right.

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Speaker 1: And we just had Jonathan talk about how the texts

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Speaker 1: are trying to manage right in a new environment. I

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Speaker 1: think that the big people like State Street and Van

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Speaker 1: Garden Fidelity will continue to do the same thing. They're

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Speaker 1: smart people running these places, and as long as they

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Speaker 1: keep making it better for all of us is who

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Speaker 1: are investors. I think they reduced the possibility of draconian

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Speaker 1: things happening to them. Michael Grant's a catch up as always,

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Speaker 1: a real gentleman of Wall Street. Malcol Hollands Macaoel thank you, sir,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. As I said, we've got some

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Speaker 1: European yields moving as well, uh this morning, a lesser

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Speaker 1: negative yield if you will, in Germany. To distill the

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Speaker 1: sharp distinct, and Jane Foley joins us with Robbo Bank. Jane,

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Speaker 1: I know it is about effects, and we want to

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Speaker 1: get to that Paulsweenian myself. But what I would really

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Speaker 1: want to focus on here is the yield differential, or

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Speaker 1: the guestimate of future inflation. I went back pre financial crisis,

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Speaker 1: and the five year five year forward guestimate of inflation

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Speaker 1: slash interest rates has never been wider. Higher inflation in

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Speaker 1: the US, a lesser inflation in Europe. What does that

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Speaker 1: signal to you at Rabble Bank on foreign exchange, Well,

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Speaker 1: quite simply, it means that the euro is likely to

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Speaker 1: remain well supported against the US dollar. And to be

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Speaker 1: honest to him, I think that this is really the

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Speaker 1: crux of the story from last spring when we saw

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Speaker 1: that will drop in US real interest rates and and

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Speaker 1: there isn't any sign yet that that's going to really reverse.

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Speaker 1: So at the start of the year we had this

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Speaker 1: bit of a correction, and you're a dollar. We had

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Speaker 1: a lot of new news and make adjusting their positions.

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Speaker 1: But fundamentally that story in real interest, it remains unchanged,

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Speaker 1: and therefore it's likely that the dollar is going to

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Speaker 1: remain soft until it does change. This is such a

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Speaker 1: critical question, folks. You know, if you say to me,

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Speaker 1: somebody wrote a forty two page year end study and

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Speaker 1: they got to redo it into two thousand twenty one, Jane,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to suggest the rewrite's going to come in July,

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Speaker 1: and with that is the humility of the ex exis. Okay,

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Speaker 1: you can say dollars stronger, you can say rates higher

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Speaker 1: in the US, but there's the when of it. How

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Speaker 1: hard is it to get those two together, the movement

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Speaker 1: of a given idea and also the when of it. Well,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think the markets already starting to talk about,

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Speaker 1: you know, changing fundamentals. But if we listen to policymakers,

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Speaker 1: if we listen to power, for instance, a week or

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Speaker 1: so ago, that doesn't seem to be any real chance

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Speaker 1: that we're going to see fundamentals actually changed. When I

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Speaker 1: talk about fundamentals. I'm talking about, you know what the

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Speaker 1: state could potentially do on rates. It's going to be

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Speaker 1: a long time before they do something on rates, that's

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Speaker 1: the way they're telling us, and of course on inflation

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Speaker 1: that perhaps this is a big market story. I think

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Speaker 1: for this year. The market has already got a bit

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Speaker 1: more excited on the prospect of US inflation, but inflation

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Speaker 1: prospects in the Eurozone remain very soft. And again we

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Speaker 1: get back to the story that we've had running for

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Speaker 1: a few years, well before the pandemic story of the

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Speaker 1: possibility of Japanese depignification in Europe. This this this risk

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Speaker 1: that we have years of low growth and low inflation

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Speaker 1: with the EU c be not necessarily having the tools

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Speaker 1: to promote inflation. And if that's the case, then real

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Speaker 1: interest rates in Europe may remain promoted by this sort

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Speaker 1: of disinflationary or deflationary effect. So, Jane, that's kind of

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Speaker 1: where I wanted to go. I mean, I was, I

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Speaker 1: was listening to Christine Leaguard this morning has sounded awfully

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Speaker 1: like Fed chairman Pale in terms of lower for longer here.

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Speaker 1: So where are currency traders placing their bets for the

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Speaker 1: next six or twelve months. Again, I still think it's

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Speaker 1: going to be on the week dollar story in a

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Speaker 1: Again it's it's not necessarily related to the nominal yield story.

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Speaker 1: And and most of these central bankers are still saying

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Speaker 1: more or less the same thing. We saw the Bank

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Speaker 1: of Japan this morning again suggesting they could do more

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Speaker 1: if if conditions need be lower for longer. That's the

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Speaker 1: that's the story for most central banks. But if we

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Speaker 1: look at inflation expectations, it appears that the US has

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Speaker 1: got the head start on I'm really being able to

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Speaker 1: promote that if we were to talk about, you know,

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Speaker 1: the change in um, the inflation outlook from the UCB

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Speaker 1: or from the Bank of Japan, and the markets going

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Speaker 1: to think, well, you know what, that's a moot point.

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Speaker 1: They're never going to get to two percent, at least

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Speaker 1: not you know, for the foreseeable. But in the US,

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Speaker 1: the market seems to believe that, and that is perhaps

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Speaker 1: why we have real interest rates, you know, so low

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Speaker 1: in in the U s. And that could stay the way,

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Speaker 1: stay that way for quite a while. Jane, We you know,

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Speaker 1: we just obviously had the inauguration yesterday at President Biden

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Speaker 1: here trying to be aggressive on the fiscal stimulus side.

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Speaker 1: How's the FX markets kind of pricing that in. I

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Speaker 1: think they have been for a while, at least since

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Speaker 1: those are Georgian runoffs on the fifth of January. And clearly,

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Speaker 1: you know the market is going to be watching the

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Speaker 1: Senate to see how much push back there is. Clearly

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Speaker 1: that there needs to be the support of some Republicans

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Speaker 1: in the other I have to make sure that you'll

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Speaker 1: go through. We don't know whether or not they're going

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Speaker 1: to get there for one point nine, but you know

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Speaker 1: that the market is optimistic that there will be more

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Speaker 1: fiscal spending. We listened to Janet Yellen earlier only the week.

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Speaker 1: The market is hopeful of that, and I think a

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Speaker 1: lot of that is probably now in the price. Jane

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Speaker 1: Folly've got to leave it there. Thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: Jane Foley with Roba think much to talk about here,

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Speaker 1: and we are now thrilled to bring you on any

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Speaker 1: number of topics. Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard his service to

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Speaker 1: us in Davos. You know this is the Davos visit

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Speaker 1: I guess this year. Ken Rogoff as well, can you

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Speaker 1: have written over the years on our fiscal responsibility. How

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Speaker 1: out of whack is our fiscal economics as we enter

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Speaker 1: a new presidency. Well, we're in a wartime situation, and

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Speaker 1: in a situation like this, you do whatever it takes

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Speaker 1: and you figure out how to pay for it later. Um.

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Speaker 1: I think you know the thing that's probably most out

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Speaker 1: of whack is we probably need a more robust system

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Speaker 1: of taxes and transfers to deal with inequality. But in

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Speaker 1: the short term, there's really very little alternative to continuing

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Speaker 1: these deficits as long as the markets will permit it. Well,

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Speaker 1: as long as the markets will will permit it. Joe

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Speaker 1: Stiglets to join us later today. I remember conversation ken

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Speaker 1: with you with Professor Stiglets and Dabos, where you were

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Speaker 1: in agreement on an optimism to grow our way out

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Speaker 1: of our fiscal difficulties. Are we going to be able

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Speaker 1: to do that with the new potential GDP of America? Now?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think that's not the point at the moment,

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Speaker 1: with the pandemic is not over. This is the worst

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Speaker 1: crisis I've seen in my lifetime. I think since the

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Speaker 1: Great Depression. This is worse than the financial crisis. Uh,

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Speaker 1: And we have to try to have a robust plan

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Speaker 1: for dealing with it. And this is this is catastrophe relief,

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Speaker 1: this isn't you know, stimulus. Yet I think we have

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Speaker 1: to get there with infrastructure spending and such, and the

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Speaker 1: President Biden has a lot of ideas about that. What

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Speaker 1: it What is true is as we emerge from the

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Speaker 1: wartime economy whenever that is, you can't stay permanently on

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Speaker 1: wartime footing. You can't solve every social problem, the environment,

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Speaker 1: everything simply by running deficits. At some point you have

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Speaker 1: to make choices among policies about what you want to

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Speaker 1: do and what you don't want to do. Uh. You probably,

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Speaker 1: as I said, to deal with inequality, need a more

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Speaker 1: robust system of taxes, transfers, providing more government services. And

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Speaker 1: I think that's going to be a tough road, but

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Speaker 1: that's really the direction we need to go. Do you

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Speaker 1: think that Joe Biden will look at it? And you know, again,

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Speaker 1: what does it mean for him being able to actually

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Speaker 1: push it through? Who knows? I mean, you know, I'm

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Speaker 1: just relieved that we have a president who comports himself

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Speaker 1: with dignity. Yes, Trump was not wrong about everything, but

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Speaker 1: I think really the real issue was the threat to

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Speaker 1: the constitution, Uh, the institutions, international institutions. It's yes, it's

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Speaker 1: sometimes good to have somebody who comes and breaks things

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Speaker 1: up and shakes things up, but it had gone much

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Speaker 1: too far. And Biden is so levelheaded. I thought it

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Speaker 1: was actually a very inspirational speech that he gave yesterday,

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Speaker 1: highlighting at the as issues that that's the most important

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Speaker 1: thing the president can do. And I think if you

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Speaker 1: don't have a good system of governance, you will not grow.

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Speaker 1: You were talking about Italy earlier. I mean it Italy

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Speaker 1: certainly struggled with trying to balance all these competing interests

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Speaker 1: and it's one of the reasons it's growth performance hasn't

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Speaker 1: been so great. Uh in certainly in recent decades. But Professor,

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Speaker 1: when you look at the spending, where does that spending

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Speaker 1: need to go in the US infrastructure spending is it's

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Speaker 1: actually internet infrastructure spending to make sure that people have

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Speaker 1: access to the worldwide but web, especially for education, Like

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Speaker 1: you know, how should the US spend that money? Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean again, the pandemic is the first thing. Uh.

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Speaker 1: The Gates Foundation has done an estimate. It seems much

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Speaker 1: too loud to me that it would cost billion dollars

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Speaker 1: to do international distribution of the vaccines. Suppose it's two

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Speaker 1: billion dollars that from the Europe in the United States

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Speaker 1: would be money very well spent to try to tame

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Speaker 1: this thing. But yes, I mean infrastructure. I think if

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Speaker 1: it's genuinely productive, is spectacularly useful. And I think you're

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Speaker 1: right a broader notion of education. I think the future

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Speaker 1: is not just bricks and mortar education, but online education

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Speaker 1: for children and adults. Can you know I said your

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Speaker 1: Curse of Cash is the bravest book written on economics

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Speaker 1: in a generation. Clearly Christine Lagarde has read The Curse

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Speaker 1: of Cash. Do you link bitcoin holy into criminal activity?

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Speaker 1: And do you consider the new price appreciation of bitcoin

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Speaker 1: to be speculative? Well, I certainly think I agree that

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Speaker 1: it's speculative. I've been a bitcoin skeptic, and certainly the

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Speaker 1: price has gone up. But there's sort of an ultimate question,

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Speaker 1: what's the use? Is it just valuable because people think

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Speaker 1: it's valuable, That is a bubble that would blow up? Um,

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Speaker 1: I can see bitcoin being used in failed states. It's conceivable,

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Speaker 1: you know, it could have some use in a dystopian future.

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Speaker 1: But I think the governments are not going to allow

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Speaker 1: pseudonymous transactions on a big scale. They're just not going

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Speaker 1: to allow it. Uh. The regulation will come in, the

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Speaker 1: government will win, It doesn't matter what the technology is.

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Speaker 1: And so I think, you know, over the long run,

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Speaker 1: if there's not a use, yes, the bubble will will burst.

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Speaker 1: I hope there's not such a valuable use, but I

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Speaker 1: suppose it's a hedge against dystopia. Would you advise Secretary

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Speaker 1: yelling at Treasury that the U s should be proactive

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Speaker 1: in instituting that regulation which could collapse the price of cryptocurrency,

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Speaker 1: but they are. Yeah, yes, I mean that's that's just

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Speaker 1: true across the poort. It needs to be regulated. Uh,

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Speaker 1: some some of the perhaps stable coins will you know,

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Speaker 1: make it through this. But I think, of course that

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Speaker 1: every central banks working on this. But I was, I'm

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Speaker 1: in the G thirty. We did a report on this, UM,

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Speaker 1: so you know, I wouldn't say it's so crudely it's

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Speaker 1: just to say make the price go down. That's not

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Speaker 1: the purpose. But you know, you need to have the

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Speaker 1: transactions obey the same kinds of information regulations as everything else. So, Uh,

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Speaker 1: I think governments are on it. Uh, it's not being

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Speaker 1: used that widely, and I suspect although the bitcoin lobbyists

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Speaker 1: have been successful in getting it in some places, that

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Speaker 1: won't last. Can we go talk to me about how

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Speaker 1: we can strengthen the financial system from now? I know

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Speaker 1: the G thirty has also done quite a lot of

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Speaker 1: work on you know, worrying about solving see maybe worrying

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Speaker 1: about zombie companies. Are we in a better place now

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Speaker 1: that we thought we would pre pandemic? Well? As this lingers,

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Speaker 1: I think some of our defenses will weaken. I mean,

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Speaker 1: part of what we did in Round one very effectively

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Speaker 1: was the Federal Reserve basically said I'm going to guarantee

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Speaker 1: junk bonds. I'm being just a little bit exaggerating, but

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Speaker 1: they did virtually go to that municipals. They ended up

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Speaker 1: not having to buy very much. The market responded. But

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Speaker 1: I think as things go on, there will be bankruptcies,

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Speaker 1: there will be things, and that the Treasury is going

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Speaker 1: to step in some places. The Federal Reserve is not

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Speaker 1: in a position to lose lots of money, and we

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Speaker 1: could see quite a lot of financial strains as this

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Speaker 1: goes on. That said, a lot of the problems are

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Speaker 1: really at you know, among low income small businesses, and

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Speaker 1: they're terrible for the country. They don't necessarily bring down

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Speaker 1: the system quite the way that you know, full on

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Speaker 1: banking crisis does. But of course that people can't pay

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Speaker 1: their rent and they're not paying their rent, eventually you're

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Speaker 1: going to have real estate bankruptcies, etcetera, etcetera. Is there

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Speaker 1: anything that could be systemic? I mean, of course in

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Speaker 1: this situation, when you have a shock of this magnitude,

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Speaker 1: there's no telling what direction that's going to move things.

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Speaker 1: I think as long as interest rates stay this low,

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Speaker 1: the government has sort of a lot of power to

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Speaker 1: deal with things. If at some point, for example, Asia

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Speaker 1: grew much faster for a sustained period and Europe and

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Speaker 1: the United States didn't, then I think eventually that's going

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Speaker 1: to put a lot of stresses on things, and interest

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Speaker 1: rates will pick up there. You know, interest rates are

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Speaker 1: below long term trend. Even if long term trend it's declining.

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Speaker 1: We had declines like this before. Uh, they're at least

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Speaker 1: substantially reversed. Eventually over a long time. That's going to happen.

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Speaker 1: Ken Rogoff, thank you so much for joining us to

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Speaker 1: stay after inauguration He is at Harvard, and I can't

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Speaker 1: say enough about his effort. The Curse of Cash still

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Speaker 1: very timely. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

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Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom

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Speaker 1: Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio