WEBVTT - Stuart Stevens, Adam Carlson & Sarah Ellison

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<v Speaker 1>Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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<v Speaker 1>where we discuss the top political headlines with some of

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<v Speaker 1>today's best minds, and an appeals court judge has declared

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<v Speaker 1>DeSantis's band on transgender care to be unconstitutional. We have

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<v Speaker 1>such a great joke for you today. Recovering polster Adam

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<v Speaker 1>Carlson stops by to talk about his analysis of the

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty four polls. Don't worry, It's not terrible. Then

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<v Speaker 1>we'll talk to the Washington Post Sarah Ellison about how

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<v Speaker 1>disinformation circles affect our media. But first we have legendary

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<v Speaker 1>campaign manager and emotional support pundant, the author of the

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<v Speaker 1>conspiracy to in America Five Ways my old Party is

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<v Speaker 1>driving our democracy to autocracy. The Lincoln Projects owned Stuart Stevens.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome back to Fast Politics. Stuart Stevens.

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<v Speaker 2>Hidekra me to a party.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm such a fan of yours. I was thinking about

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<v Speaker 1>it because I was thinking, like, now we can talk

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<v Speaker 1>campaign with someone who has done many campaigns but also

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<v Speaker 1>has a sort of nice, not too crazy way about him.

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like campaigns make a person a little unhinged.

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<v Speaker 2>They do, and most people work in campaigns and then

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<v Speaker 2>they grow up and they do something else. As my

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<v Speaker 2>long time partner Rush Street for and I used to say,

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<v Speaker 2>we'd look around after every cycle and we go like,

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<v Speaker 2>what's wrong with us? We still want to do campaigns.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, I think I probably in a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of ways represented the worst of the American political system

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<v Speaker 2>because I just like campaign I was never really interested

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<v Speaker 2>in that thing called government, and it gave me a

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<v Speaker 2>very simplistic and shallow and what proved to be ultimately

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<v Speaker 2>dangerous value system, which is I was happy if I

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<v Speaker 2>won and I was sad if I lost, And you know,

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<v Speaker 2>that worked all great up until Trump. Then I had

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<v Speaker 2>asked self, like, how is it that I didn't see this?

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<v Speaker 2>There's not, unfortunately, any good answer I've come up with.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think it's absurd to think that Trump hijacked

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<v Speaker 2>the party. Nobody made anybody vote for Donald Trump, and

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump is so popular in the Republican Party, and

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<v Speaker 2>the party has become Donald Trump because it's what the

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<v Speaker 2>party wants. Let's quit pretending, you know that there's some

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<v Speaker 2>party that we're gonna go.

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<v Speaker 1>Let you it's interesting to me. One of the things

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<v Speaker 1>that I think a lot of us spend probably way

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<v Speaker 1>too much time thinking about is why is Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>so popular? Like still and again he's not so popular, right,

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<v Speaker 1>he's not, but he has a certain thing that people

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<v Speaker 1>still like about him, despite the fact that he's a

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<v Speaker 1>convicted felon and out on bail for three other cases.

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<v Speaker 2>You can't get hung up on these little details, right exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>But the question is, like, I think that some of

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<v Speaker 1>this just comes down to, like, charismatic politicians do better

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<v Speaker 1>with the electorate. I mean, is that possible? Is it

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<v Speaker 1>just that simple?

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<v Speaker 2>Listen, I'm pretty harsh about this, but I think I've

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<v Speaker 2>earned a right to be harsh because I know these people,

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<v Speaker 2>and I dealt with the Republican electorate. I don't think

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<v Speaker 2>there's anything flattering that you can say about the Republican electorate.

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<v Speaker 2>We can't blame this on Fox. At any given moment,

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<v Speaker 2>the most watching Fox are three million and seventy plus

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<v Speaker 2>million voted for Trump. There's more information available to voters

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<v Speaker 2>today in America than any time or any place in history.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean an actual true statement. It's not North Korea.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, it's not Mississippi in nineteen sixty five, when

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<v Speaker 2>there was people referred to being behind the Magnolia curtain

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<v Speaker 2>because one family owned all the newspapers, and it's not

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<v Speaker 2>that way. I think at the heart of Trump is race.

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<v Speaker 2>And Trump's coalition is eighty five percent white in a

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<v Speaker 2>country that is sixty fifty nine percent white less. So

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<v Speaker 2>the time we finished this and I think that ultimately

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<v Speaker 2>that is the reality of what happened to the Republican Party.

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<v Speaker 2>And now I get in this argument with my still

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<v Speaker 2>Republican friends and they go, well, so let me get

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<v Speaker 2>this stressory. You think everybody voted for Trump is a racist,

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<v Speaker 2>and it's just no. But I think everybody who voted

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<v Speaker 2>for Trump pretty much thought something was more important to

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<v Speaker 2>them than having a racist as president, because you can't

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<v Speaker 2>deny that Donald Trump is a racist. And sixty percent

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<v Speaker 2>of the electorate was non college educated whites. That's now

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<v Speaker 2>forty percent and dropping. It's the fastest shrinking demographic in America,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think that is at the fear of what

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<v Speaker 2>drives so much of trump Ism. And they're right, they

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<v Speaker 2>are losing control and America's headed to become a majority

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<v Speaker 2>minority country, and in many ways it already has. If

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<v Speaker 2>you're sixteen years and younger, in America, the majority are

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<v Speaker 2>non white, you know, and odds look really really good

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<v Speaker 2>they're going to be non white when they turn eighteen.

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<v Speaker 2>And that is at the root of all of this.

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<v Speaker 2>I think, you know, I do not understand these CEOs

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<v Speaker 2>who support Donald Trump. I think it's shameful. I think

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<v Speaker 2>they should be shamed. I think to Steve Schwartzman, of

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<v Speaker 2>the world, would you rather be a CEO in Russia?

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<v Speaker 2>You have a pretty good year.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a very short term way of thinking of the world.

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<v Speaker 2>You look at Blackstone, Steve Schwartzman, So you've got a

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<v Speaker 2>convicted felon in New York. Blackstone is over four thousand

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<v Speaker 2>employees from New York. So is what Steve Schwartzman is

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<v Speaker 2>CEO sending a message to his employees that the rule

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<v Speaker 2>of law in New York State doesn't matter. That's interesting

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<v Speaker 2>because I imagine if you work for Blackstone, they actually

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<v Speaker 2>expect you to adhere to the laws of New York State.

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<v Speaker 1>If Blackstone were hiring convicted felons, like if you want

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<v Speaker 1>a job at Blackstone and you owe more than one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred million dollars, like yes, for fraud, would you get hired?

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<v Speaker 2>Absolutely not. You can go to the Blackstone Code of Ethics,

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<v Speaker 2>which is prominent, and I just don't understand why there

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<v Speaker 2>should be a higher standard for being an intern at

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<v Speaker 2>Blackstone than being president.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, all right, exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think that those like Steve Schwartzman and Jamie

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<v Speaker 2>Dimond has said nice things about Donald Trump before, famously

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<v Speaker 2>at the Davos. I don't know what he said about

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<v Speaker 2>who he's going to vote for at this stage. If

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<v Speaker 2>he said anything, I think a lot of people are

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<v Speaker 2>telling him to shut up, shut up and durabble. I

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<v Speaker 2>think it is foolish to think that you can have

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<v Speaker 2>the benefits of a democracy that you're enjoining now and

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<v Speaker 2>elect a non democratic president, someone who is going to

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<v Speaker 2>lead the country for four years, non wall d democratic

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<v Speaker 2>and Trump obviously does not support democracy. I mean, there's

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<v Speaker 2>no pretense of it. And if you think that Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump won't come after you, you're feeding the alligator hoping

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<v Speaker 2>he'll eat you. Last.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it's the Mitch McConnell saying, right.

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<v Speaker 2>It is precisely the miss McConnell thing that workout. Mitch.

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<v Speaker 2>I've talked about this before, you know. When I was

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<v Speaker 2>writing this book, it was all a lie. I stumbled

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<v Speaker 2>across the memoirs of friends on pathin who was a

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<v Speaker 2>Pressian aristocrat responsible more than anybody else for ushering Hitler

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<v Speaker 2>into power. So he wrote his memoir in nineteen fifty three.

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<v Speaker 2>Now things had gone a little sideway, I mean, a

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<v Speaker 2>one hundred million killed World War two Holocaust, and he

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<v Speaker 2>still was defending supporting Hitler. And there are phrases that

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<v Speaker 2>he uses is if memoir that are literally verbade him

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<v Speaker 2>of what Ms McConnell said, that we will change him.

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<v Speaker 2>There are more of us, He will have to adapt

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<v Speaker 2>to us. So I wonder how did Mitch McConnell feel, well,

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<v Speaker 2>his colleagues were running for their lives and their own offers.

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<v Speaker 2>How did that work out? And still mits McConnell is

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<v Speaker 2>afraid to say Donald Trump's name in public. So I

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<v Speaker 2>think it's a historic failure of a party. And ultimately,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean that's I said about the selection. The selection

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<v Speaker 2>isn't remotely about Donald Trump. It's about each of us.

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<v Speaker 2>We know who Donald Trump is, He's just who are we?

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<v Speaker 2>And I think it's a character tist. You know, I

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<v Speaker 2>am so offended by these Trump supporters that say, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>the system was rigged. We had to resort to what

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<v Speaker 2>you know, storming the Capitol and all of this. So

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<v Speaker 2>let me get this straight. There are Americans who actually

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<v Speaker 2>were prosecuted, were hunted, were tortured, were murdered to stop

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<v Speaker 2>them from participating in the system. And they're called black America.

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<v Speaker 2>So how did they react. They didn't storm the capital

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<v Speaker 2>and violence easier. They stayed in the system, They registered

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<v Speaker 2>more voters, they continue to believe in the system. And

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<v Speaker 2>yet the overwhelmingly middle class white voters that support Trump

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<v Speaker 2>have walked away from America. And I think it is

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<v Speaker 2>shameful and I have no need to understand them. I really,

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<v Speaker 2>I don't want to understand the guy in the camp

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<v Speaker 2>all switch sweatshirt. I just want him walk up.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. No, So let's talk about right now. We are

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<v Speaker 1>still in this ecosystem where we don't really know know

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<v Speaker 1>quite what the results from Trump's criminal conviction are going

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<v Speaker 1>to be, though it does seem like there is some

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<v Speaker 1>movement there. And I recently read something where that actually,

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<v Speaker 1>Hunter Biden's trial is not hurting Biden as much as

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<v Speaker 1>Trump World wanted it to. That actually people can have

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<v Speaker 1>two thoughts at the same time, you know, shockingly, So

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<v Speaker 1>I'm curious to know what you You know, we're sort

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<v Speaker 1>of in this weird period run up to the conventions,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm wondering what you think that Biden world should

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<v Speaker 1>be doing and are they doing? What do you think?

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<v Speaker 2>I am a great admirer of the Biden campaign. I

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<v Speaker 2>think they ran a brilliant campaign in twenty twenty that

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<v Speaker 2>they don't get enough credit for. You know, be the

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<v Speaker 2>incumbent president is incredibly difficult, and you know, nineteen seventy six,

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<v Speaker 2>we passed campaign financing, so each Democratic Republican nominee got

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<v Speaker 2>the same amount of money, and under that system, it

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<v Speaker 2>did level the playing field. Under that system, Bush lost

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<v Speaker 2>and Carter lost. So then in two thousand and eight

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<v Speaker 2>Obama walked away from that system, so he spent a

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<v Speaker 2>general election about three hundred and seventy million. McCain spent

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<v Speaker 2>eighty four million. So, as always happens, once nobody steps

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<v Speaker 2>out of the system, everybody steps out. So twenty twelve

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<v Speaker 2>was the first time since nineteen seventy two Nixon McGovern

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<v Speaker 2>the two candidates were running against each other who were

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<v Speaker 2>not in the federal funding system Romney Obama. Romney lost,

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<v Speaker 2>so Biden beat An incumbent president not in the federal

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<v Speaker 2>funding system, so it's fair at last, when is the

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<v Speaker 2>last time that happened? Well, the answer happens to be

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<v Speaker 2>Herbert Hoover and he had a bad year. So I

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<v Speaker 2>have tremendous respect for what the Biden campaign does. They

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<v Speaker 2>have this quality that is so rare in politics, which

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<v Speaker 2>is patience. And you know, there is this overwhelming human

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<v Speaker 2>tendency to day trade politics, so you have you know,

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<v Speaker 2>Biden goes out and has a lousy press conference after

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<v Speaker 2>this Special Council's finding, and you know, you have people

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<v Speaker 2>like Ezra Client writing you should get out, this is

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<v Speaker 2>it right, and then a few weeks later he gives

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<v Speaker 2>a great state of the Union space you go, well,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe you shouldn't get out, and politics is not for

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<v Speaker 2>day traders. You know. My greatest worry where i'm the

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<v Speaker 2>Biden campaign would be peaking too early strangers that may seem,

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<v Speaker 2>because I think there is a great narrative in American

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<v Speaker 2>tradition of coming from behind, and I think the greatest

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<v Speaker 2>danger for the Biden campaign is they're going to start

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<v Speaker 2>leading too early, and then they may drop back, and

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<v Speaker 2>then it's harder to go back again. You know, I

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<v Speaker 2>have no contact with the Biden campaign, so this is

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<v Speaker 2>just purely outsider. I think that they understand the rhythm

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<v Speaker 2>of this campaign and there is no need to win

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<v Speaker 2>every news cycle that I think he'll probably be behind

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<v Speaker 2>until the Democratic Convention, and then I think after the

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<v Speaker 2>Invention they'll be able to come out and prosecute a

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<v Speaker 2>campaign against Trump. That the elements are being laid for now.

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<v Speaker 2>And if I had to make a bet now, I

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<v Speaker 2>don't think the race is going to be particularly close.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it'll be close to about October twentieth, and

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<v Speaker 2>then it's going to be like nineteen eighty and when

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<v Speaker 2>Carter started to drop. I don't understand what you get

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<v Speaker 2>when you vote for Donald Trump. What do you get

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<v Speaker 2>when you vote for Republicans? I don't know. There's no

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<v Speaker 2>policy except Project twenty twenty five, which God knows they

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<v Speaker 2>don't want to talk about much because it is overwhelmingly unpopular.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the things that I was struck by this

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<v Speaker 1>weekend was that Trump was in Nevada and he said

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<v Speaker 1>to the group, I will make it so you don't

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<v Speaker 1>have to pay taxes on tips anymore, a wildly unpopular thing.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not clear how many people actually do pay taxes

0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:59.600
<v Speaker 1>on tips. But that ability to just say whatever he

0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:04.040
<v Speaker 1>would any interest in the possibility of being actually able

0:13:04.080 --> 0:13:06.280
<v Speaker 1>to do it. Do you think that helps him? I mean,

0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:08.600
<v Speaker 1>I feel like that that's the thing where I'm like,

0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:10.360
<v Speaker 1>he's not bound by the truth at all.

0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:12.840
<v Speaker 2>No, I mean, this has always been the case. He

0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:15.440
<v Speaker 2>was going to balance the budget in four years, said

0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:18.319
<v Speaker 2>so when a Washington Post interview, he was going to

0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:22.400
<v Speaker 2>make health care a beautiful plan for health care Mexico,

0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:24.480
<v Speaker 2>was going to pay for the wall, as Mark Cuban

0:13:24.520 --> 0:13:27.880
<v Speaker 2>famously said, he is the guy who will say anything

0:13:27.960 --> 0:13:31.120
<v Speaker 2>at closing time to get laid right, all right. And

0:13:31.800 --> 0:13:35.880
<v Speaker 2>I think that his ability to do that is reduced

0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:40.160
<v Speaker 2>every day because the difference between what he has said

0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:43.280
<v Speaker 2>he was going to do and what he does is greater,

0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:46.520
<v Speaker 2>and that includes to what he has actually done. So

0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:51.839
<v Speaker 2>he's actually taken away roe v. Eight. Okay, let's live

0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:55.400
<v Speaker 2>in that world. He actually is supporting putin. Let's live

0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:56.160
<v Speaker 2>in that world.

0:13:56.320 --> 0:14:00.440
<v Speaker 1>What do you think about those polls that say people

0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:04.240
<v Speaker 1>don't believe that Trump actually was the person who took

0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:05.520
<v Speaker 1>away roe v. Wade.

0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:09.200
<v Speaker 2>It's troubling. I think that's why if you're sitting in

0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:12.559
<v Speaker 2>a Biden campaign, you want to spend over a billion dollars,

0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:15.839
<v Speaker 2>and I think that's you know, as that old phrase goes,

0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:19.440
<v Speaker 2>campaigns matter, and I think that there are a lot

0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:26.400
<v Speaker 2>of very substantive, impressive, life affecting positive changes that have

0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:30.160
<v Speaker 2>been brought by the Biden administration. Unemployment at record lows,

0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:34.640
<v Speaker 2>you have stock markets at record highs. That does affect

0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:38.640
<v Speaker 2>people more than realize because of the one ks. You

0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:44.600
<v Speaker 2>have wages rising. All of this actually is a positive

0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:47.440
<v Speaker 2>underpinning to people. People who now are paying thirty three

0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:50.120
<v Speaker 2>dollars for insulin know that people who are going to

0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:53.760
<v Speaker 2>pay lesser than Haler's know that now it is always

0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:58.120
<v Speaker 2>difficult for any incumbent to get credit for what they've done.

0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:00.760
<v Speaker 2>In two thousand and four, were sitting focus groups in

0:15:00.800 --> 0:15:03.760
<v Speaker 2>the Bush campaign, and one of the great goals of

0:15:03.760 --> 0:15:06.880
<v Speaker 2>the Bush administration was to reduce taxes for those in

0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:10.400
<v Speaker 2>the lower income So the goal was family of four

0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:13.320
<v Speaker 2>making forty thousand dollars or less would pay no income tax,

0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:16.800
<v Speaker 2>which happened under Bush. So we would sit in focus

0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:19.600
<v Speaker 2>groups with people who no longer were paying income tax

0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:23.000
<v Speaker 2>and would ask them, are you paying more income tax

0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:25.520
<v Speaker 2>now under Bush or not, they say I'm paying more now,

0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:27.720
<v Speaker 2>and then you would generally point out where you're actually

0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:30.280
<v Speaker 2>not paying any income tax now, and they would say, well,

0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:33.680
<v Speaker 2>I'm paying more in taxes, and they just wouldn't believe you.

0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:36.880
<v Speaker 2>And that's why in two thousand and four, among other reasons,

0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:41.760
<v Speaker 2>we decided correctly, I think, really led by Carl Rowe,

0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:44.400
<v Speaker 2>who I do think is a genius, that there were

0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:47.520
<v Speaker 2>very few persuadable voters. I mean we would show people

0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:49.960
<v Speaker 2>ads that, like you know, Mark McKinnon and I had

0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:55.840
<v Speaker 2>made about women voting in Afghanistan, and people would cry,

0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:59.600
<v Speaker 2>I mean openly cry. Men would cry. And then they'd say,

0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:01.320
<v Speaker 2>you know, I'm never going to vote for him. That's

0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:02.680
<v Speaker 2>the best thing I've ever seen. I'm never going to

0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:07.040
<v Speaker 2>vote for And out of that strategy of what came

0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:09.960
<v Speaker 2>to be known as Fortress precincts, which the way you

0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:12.880
<v Speaker 2>could win, the path to win was very simple. Where

0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:15.720
<v Speaker 2>you got sixty percent, you needed to get sixty three percent.

0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:18.480
<v Speaker 2>Where you got fifty two, you needed to get fifty five.

0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:21.480
<v Speaker 2>You had to just increase your margin by just a

0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:23.920
<v Speaker 2>little in every one of these precincts and not go

0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:28.360
<v Speaker 2>after persuading voters. And I think that the Biden campaign

0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:32.400
<v Speaker 2>is in much the same reality now. So Biden won

0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:36.720
<v Speaker 2>by eight million votes, Trump lost. He needs new customers.

0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:40.520
<v Speaker 2>You start with the question how many Biden twenty Trump

0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:44.120
<v Speaker 2>twenty four voters are there? Some? I don't think there's

0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:48.360
<v Speaker 2>massive amounts. So what is Trump doing to get new customers?

0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:51.720
<v Speaker 2>As far as I can tell, he's saying, if you're

0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:54.520
<v Speaker 2>not a long term, devoted customer here, we don't want

0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:57.600
<v Speaker 2>your business. Which people hear that, and I think they react.

0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:00.760
<v Speaker 2>There was a lot of behind, you know, Nikki Haley,

0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:06.120
<v Speaker 2>and ultimately politics is more about addition and subtraction. And

0:17:06.720 --> 0:17:10.280
<v Speaker 2>you know, one of my favorite clients in Haley Barber,

0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:13.280
<v Speaker 2>you know, ran for governor Mississippi after a career in politics,

0:17:13.400 --> 0:17:16.639
<v Speaker 2>and Haley like to say, it's better to be for

0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:23.639
<v Speaker 2>the future because it's going to happen anyway. And you know,

0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:27.200
<v Speaker 2>the Republican Party is basically at war with the modern world,

0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:29.359
<v Speaker 2>and I think they're going to lose.

0:17:29.920 --> 0:17:34.480
<v Speaker 1>I would literally sit here with you all day because

0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:37.280
<v Speaker 1>you just are so soothing. But I think that's a

0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:39.760
<v Speaker 1>really good point that the Republican Party is at war

0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:43.399
<v Speaker 1>with the future. Thank you so much, Stewart Stevens. I

0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:51.400
<v Speaker 1>really appreciate you. Spring is here, and I bet you

0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:54.359
<v Speaker 1>are trying to look fashionable, So why not pick up

0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:59.680
<v Speaker 1>some fashionable all new Fast Politics merchandise. We just opened

0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:03.200
<v Speaker 1>a news store with all new designs just for you.

0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:07.440
<v Speaker 1>Get t shirts, hoodies, hats, and top bags. To grab some,

0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:13.200
<v Speaker 1>head to fastpolitics dot com. Adam Carlson is a former

0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:18.080
<v Speaker 1>and recovering Democratic polster. Adam, welcome back. I think of

0:18:18.119 --> 0:18:19.560
<v Speaker 1>you as a fan favorite.

0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:21.840
<v Speaker 3>Oh wow, that's very flattering. Well, I'm really happy to

0:18:21.880 --> 0:18:23.120
<v Speaker 3>be here. Thanks for having me back.

0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:28.280
<v Speaker 1>Because we deal with polls, right, I hate polls. You

0:18:28.320 --> 0:18:30.280
<v Speaker 1>probably don't hate poles as much as I hate poles,

0:18:30.280 --> 0:18:34.840
<v Speaker 1>since you're a recovering pollster, But I find polls to

0:18:34.960 --> 0:18:38.439
<v Speaker 1>be very annoying. But they're really the only indicator we

0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:43.000
<v Speaker 1>have ultimately, right. We can do turnout on the primaries,

0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:46.200
<v Speaker 1>but that's kind of different, so we have to sort

0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:49.520
<v Speaker 1>of use them. But they are sort of a blunt instrument.

0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:51.919
<v Speaker 1>And what is sort of the state of modern polling

0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:52.480
<v Speaker 1>right now?

0:18:52.600 --> 0:18:54.080
<v Speaker 3>I think that the state of mone and polling is

0:18:54.119 --> 0:18:57.120
<v Speaker 3>in plus right now. If you're doing a phone poll,

0:18:57.400 --> 0:18:59.960
<v Speaker 3>response rates have never been lowered. This has been covered

0:19:00.280 --> 0:19:03.080
<v Speaker 3>a ton, This has been a reason to criticize polls.

0:19:03.200 --> 0:19:06.040
<v Speaker 3>You're lucky to get a one percent response rate, as in,

0:19:06.080 --> 0:19:08.520
<v Speaker 3>if you contact one hundred people, you're lucky to get

0:19:08.560 --> 0:19:11.439
<v Speaker 3>one person to actually answer and finish your holl You

0:19:11.480 --> 0:19:13.880
<v Speaker 3>have to call people on their cell phones now, which

0:19:13.960 --> 0:19:16.399
<v Speaker 3>is a better way of contacting them, but it's a

0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:18.320
<v Speaker 3>lot harder to get a hold of folks because you

0:19:18.440 --> 0:19:21.280
<v Speaker 3>call our ID show the unknown number. You're not really

0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:24.080
<v Speaker 3>ever sure if the people who are answering those unknown

0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:27.320
<v Speaker 3>numbers are representative of the broader population or if they're

0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:30.560
<v Speaker 3>more engaged or kind of weirdos. It's a bit imprecise,

0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:32.200
<v Speaker 3>and there's things you can do on the back end

0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:36.159
<v Speaker 3>to try and retro sit them. People you're polling to

0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:38.520
<v Speaker 3>be representative of the population. But again, you're making a

0:19:38.560 --> 0:19:41.320
<v Speaker 3>lot of assumptions each time you're doing that. So each

0:19:41.320 --> 0:19:44.240
<v Speaker 3>assumption that each polster makes and how much thought and

0:19:44.320 --> 0:19:46.879
<v Speaker 3>rigor they put into it can affect the accuracy and

0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:50.200
<v Speaker 3>can introduce bias. So, like you said, it's a blunk instrument.

0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:52.600
<v Speaker 3>It's never been harder to pull than it is right now,

0:19:52.720 --> 0:19:55.840
<v Speaker 3>there's online polls. Of course there's live texts, people are

0:19:55.880 --> 0:19:58.159
<v Speaker 3>trying different things, But it was a lot easier to

0:19:58.160 --> 0:20:00.720
<v Speaker 3>be a polster ten twenty third years ago than it

0:20:00.800 --> 0:20:01.240
<v Speaker 3>is today.

0:20:01.600 --> 0:20:06.480
<v Speaker 1>Explained to us sort of what we're seeing in these

0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:12.320
<v Speaker 1>free Biden pre Biden Trump five months out polling.

0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:14.359
<v Speaker 3>Let me step back for a second here, and I

0:20:14.440 --> 0:20:16.560
<v Speaker 3>think that the rise of the five thirty eight in

0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:19.080
<v Speaker 3>Nate Silver Next starting in two thousand and eight was

0:20:19.119 --> 0:20:22.000
<v Speaker 3>great for visibility for polling, and then by thirty eight

0:20:22.040 --> 0:20:24.680
<v Speaker 3>in particular and others as well had really good cycles

0:20:24.680 --> 0:20:27.000
<v Speaker 3>in two thousand and eight twenty twelve, and they're seen

0:20:27.040 --> 0:20:30.360
<v Speaker 3>as like these oracles, people doing these models. But historically

0:20:30.359 --> 0:20:32.840
<v Speaker 3>polling error is pretty high in one direction or another.

0:20:32.920 --> 0:20:36.200
<v Speaker 3>So twenty sixteen and twenty twenty eight underestimated Trump twice.

0:20:36.280 --> 0:20:39.879
<v Speaker 3>So there's this working assumption that because the polls underestimated

0:20:39.880 --> 0:20:43.400
<v Speaker 3>Trump twice in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, that they'll

0:20:43.440 --> 0:20:45.399
<v Speaker 3>do it a third time. So to answer your question,

0:20:45.520 --> 0:20:48.560
<v Speaker 3>right now, Trump leads Biden, maybe by a point, maybe

0:20:48.600 --> 0:20:52.200
<v Speaker 3>it's tied nationally, that's depending on which aggregate you look at.

0:20:52.480 --> 0:20:54.840
<v Speaker 3>That's kind of where we're at right now. Biden got

0:20:54.920 --> 0:20:59.119
<v Speaker 3>a roughly two point bump after Trump's conviction or thirty

0:20:59.119 --> 0:21:01.840
<v Speaker 3>four or felony convictions, and nationally we don't have a

0:21:01.840 --> 0:21:04.880
<v Speaker 3>lot of state pulling. It's compared before and after right now,

0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:09.560
<v Speaker 3>so things are tight nationally. But people assume that because

0:21:09.640 --> 0:21:12.480
<v Speaker 3>Poles underestimated Trump in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, that

0:21:12.520 --> 0:21:14.800
<v Speaker 3>they'll do it again in twenty twenty four. And that's

0:21:14.800 --> 0:21:18.080
<v Speaker 3>not necessarily how polling error works. That's happened in both directions.

0:21:18.119 --> 0:21:21.080
<v Speaker 3>In twenty twelve, underestimated Obama and this spill sally a

0:21:21.160 --> 0:21:23.840
<v Speaker 3>much closer race than it ended up being against Smith Romney.

0:21:23.960 --> 0:21:26.520
<v Speaker 3>It's tempting to say that again like Biden needs to

0:21:26.520 --> 0:21:28.840
<v Speaker 3>be ahead by a lot more because the Poles will

0:21:28.880 --> 0:21:31.359
<v Speaker 3>underestimate Trump again, But we just don't know that's the case,

0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:34.720
<v Speaker 3>especially because I would bet good money that a lot

0:21:34.760 --> 0:21:37.440
<v Speaker 3>of posters have made adjustments ince then.

0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:39.760
<v Speaker 1>This is why I wanted to have you on this

0:21:39.800 --> 0:21:43.640
<v Speaker 1>podcast because it strikes me and you and I can

0:21:43.760 --> 0:21:47.480
<v Speaker 1>both go into this right now, that there may be

0:21:47.680 --> 0:21:51.520
<v Speaker 1>and again we don't know because we don't have algorithmic

0:21:51.560 --> 0:21:54.679
<v Speaker 1>transparency and this is obviously not an algorithm, but we

0:21:54.760 --> 0:21:58.639
<v Speaker 1>don't have the transparency for the numbers to see exactly

0:21:58.680 --> 0:22:02.919
<v Speaker 1>how they're waiting these numbers to try and create the

0:22:03.160 --> 0:22:06.119
<v Speaker 1>sort of this is an electorate that is very difficult

0:22:06.400 --> 0:22:10.840
<v Speaker 1>to predict, right, And so the question is they're trying to,

0:22:11.080 --> 0:22:15.199
<v Speaker 1>yet again pull to explain an electorate that there is

0:22:15.240 --> 0:22:18.040
<v Speaker 1>not a lot that you can't completely explain, right.

0:22:18.359 --> 0:22:21.080
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, this is the challenge every year. It's always easier

0:22:21.160 --> 0:22:23.760
<v Speaker 3>in retrospect to see what the errors were, and I

0:22:23.800 --> 0:22:26.160
<v Speaker 3>think a lot of posters are trying in good faith

0:22:26.160 --> 0:22:28.359
<v Speaker 3>to figure it out and to get it right, to

0:22:28.480 --> 0:22:32.080
<v Speaker 3>learn from previous mistakes. There's also a reputational risk for

0:22:32.119 --> 0:22:34.520
<v Speaker 3>getting it wrong in the same direction a third time.

0:22:34.720 --> 0:22:38.040
<v Speaker 3>So in twenty sixteen, it was okay, we underestimated the

0:22:38.080 --> 0:22:41.640
<v Speaker 3>turnout or the Trump percentage of non college educated white voters.

0:22:41.920 --> 0:22:45.040
<v Speaker 3>In twenty twenty kind of underestimated the Republicans kind of

0:22:45.080 --> 0:22:47.960
<v Speaker 3>coming home to Trump. We've made it a lot closer

0:22:47.960 --> 0:22:50.840
<v Speaker 3>than the polls and anticipated as a Biden one, but

0:22:50.880 --> 0:22:52.600
<v Speaker 3>it was he's supposed to win by a lot more.

0:22:52.800 --> 0:22:54.280
<v Speaker 4>And this time we don't really know.

0:22:54.320 --> 0:22:56.679
<v Speaker 3>I mean, no polster is going to nor should they

0:22:56.720 --> 0:22:59.000
<v Speaker 3>reveal their secret sauce in terms of all, right, we're

0:22:59.040 --> 0:23:02.360
<v Speaker 3>going to comperment with this, but we are seeing some weirdness,

0:23:02.560 --> 0:23:06.560
<v Speaker 3>historical weirdness in the polls. We're seeing Trump winning a larger,

0:23:07.040 --> 0:23:09.840
<v Speaker 3>historically large number of people of color in the polls,

0:23:09.960 --> 0:23:12.760
<v Speaker 3>the largest in some cases since the Civil Rights Act

0:23:12.840 --> 0:23:15.320
<v Speaker 3>was passed, in which I find hard to believe. You

0:23:15.400 --> 0:23:17.719
<v Speaker 3>never quite know, but that could be the artifact of

0:23:17.920 --> 0:23:20.640
<v Speaker 3>them all changing their not all, but the way they're sampling,

0:23:20.720 --> 0:23:23.000
<v Speaker 3>or a way to reaching people, or maybe they're trying

0:23:23.040 --> 0:23:24.480
<v Speaker 3>something different, or maybe it's real.

0:23:24.560 --> 0:23:26.040
<v Speaker 4>I have my doubts, right, I have.

0:23:26.040 --> 0:23:28.320
<v Speaker 1>My doubts too, a lot of these. So let's talk

0:23:28.359 --> 0:23:31.720
<v Speaker 1>about cross tabs for truth. A lot of these numbers

0:23:32.200 --> 0:23:36.560
<v Speaker 1>look a little bit dicey. Explain to us like some

0:23:36.640 --> 0:23:38.639
<v Speaker 1>of these sort of the things you've seen in the

0:23:38.640 --> 0:23:42.960
<v Speaker 1>cross tabs. Besides this largest racial realignment since the voting

0:23:43.080 --> 0:23:43.479
<v Speaker 1>right to that.

0:23:43.880 --> 0:23:46.400
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So every month I'm behind for May, but every

0:23:46.400 --> 0:23:50.560
<v Speaker 3>month I put together of higher quality national polls. I

0:23:50.680 --> 0:23:54.200
<v Speaker 3>dig through and manually enter all the cross that bindings

0:23:54.280 --> 0:23:56.439
<v Speaker 3>to see where the trends are releatant to twenty twenty

0:23:56.520 --> 0:23:58.119
<v Speaker 3>and what holes are showing are going to be the

0:23:58.160 --> 0:24:01.440
<v Speaker 3>biggest shifts again, we'll be, but what polls are capturing

0:24:01.520 --> 0:24:03.800
<v Speaker 3>right now? So this kind of smooths out any one

0:24:03.880 --> 0:24:06.920
<v Speaker 3>polster who's finding something super weird and also solves the

0:24:06.960 --> 0:24:09.679
<v Speaker 3>problem of looking at tiny sample sizes. This isn't a

0:24:09.680 --> 0:24:12.359
<v Speaker 3>perfect way of doing this, but it is better than

0:24:12.400 --> 0:24:14.280
<v Speaker 3>anything else that we have out there. So we have

0:24:14.320 --> 0:24:17.200
<v Speaker 3>a lot of regular forecasts, right I'm like, like, here's

0:24:17.200 --> 0:24:19.280
<v Speaker 3>the average of the polls. Here's real clear politics, here's

0:24:19.280 --> 0:24:21.840
<v Speaker 3>five thirty eight. This is trying to go under the service. Okay,

0:24:21.880 --> 0:24:24.800
<v Speaker 3>so Biden is down from four years ago. Where is

0:24:24.800 --> 0:24:28.440
<v Speaker 3>it happening among So every single month we're seeing black

0:24:28.520 --> 0:24:33.600
<v Speaker 3>voters shifting away from Biden and towards Trump by twenty

0:24:33.600 --> 0:24:36.119
<v Speaker 3>plus points compared to twenty twenty. We're still looking at

0:24:36.200 --> 0:24:39.160
<v Speaker 3>like a you know, eighty twenty type margin, but it's

0:24:39.280 --> 0:24:41.280
<v Speaker 3>above ninety ten in twenty twenty.

0:24:41.400 --> 0:24:42.520
<v Speaker 4>That's a huge shift.

0:24:42.720 --> 0:24:45.000
<v Speaker 3>And the polls right now are showing that Trump will

0:24:45.000 --> 0:24:47.800
<v Speaker 3>get the highest share of black voters since before nineteen

0:24:47.840 --> 0:24:49.680
<v Speaker 3>sixty four, so in a very.

0:24:49.640 --> 0:24:50.440
<v Speaker 4>Very very long time.

0:24:50.640 --> 0:24:53.320
<v Speaker 3>Based on why, there's a bunch of theories as to

0:24:53.400 --> 0:24:55.800
<v Speaker 3>why this is the case, one of which is that

0:24:56.000 --> 0:24:58.280
<v Speaker 3>this is real movement. This is based off of frustration

0:24:58.359 --> 0:25:01.280
<v Speaker 3>with Biden, based off of not following through on promises,

0:25:01.359 --> 0:25:03.440
<v Speaker 3>or impact of inflation or et cetera. But that doesn't

0:25:03.440 --> 0:25:05.800
<v Speaker 3>really explain why it's afecting black voters more than let's say,

0:25:05.840 --> 0:25:08.400
<v Speaker 3>Hispanic voters are non college educated white voters. I don't

0:25:08.400 --> 0:25:10.560
<v Speaker 3>find that super convinced it could be part of it.

0:25:10.680 --> 0:25:13.080
<v Speaker 3>But there are also other theories too, right that there

0:25:13.080 --> 0:25:15.600
<v Speaker 3>are just satisfaction with Biden is super high right now,

0:25:15.600 --> 0:25:18.280
<v Speaker 3>and so black voters are just expressing their frustration. This

0:25:18.359 --> 0:25:20.920
<v Speaker 3>is called expressive responding, where you're not really thinking about

0:25:20.960 --> 0:25:23.439
<v Speaker 3>it as a binary election. You're kind of just like,

0:25:23.600 --> 0:25:25.639
<v Speaker 3>I'm pissed at Biden, and you know what, I'm going

0:25:25.680 --> 0:25:27.200
<v Speaker 3>to say, I'm undecided, or I'm going to say I

0:25:27.320 --> 0:25:28.000
<v Speaker 3>vote for Trump, and.

0:25:28.000 --> 0:25:29.280
<v Speaker 4>Maybe you will, maybe you won't.

0:25:29.280 --> 0:25:32.000
<v Speaker 3>If we're using history as any guide, the base generally

0:25:32.040 --> 0:25:35.240
<v Speaker 3>comes home. This is also weird election. My personal theory,

0:25:35.280 --> 0:25:37.720
<v Speaker 3>the one I share with a few other polling nerds.

0:25:37.760 --> 0:25:39.080
<v Speaker 3>It has to do and this might be getting a

0:25:39.080 --> 0:25:39.840
<v Speaker 3>little in the weeds.

0:25:39.920 --> 0:25:41.480
<v Speaker 1>Please get in the weeds with us.

0:25:41.800 --> 0:25:45.280
<v Speaker 3>There are the ways of putting guardrails demographically. When you're

0:25:45.280 --> 0:25:46.919
<v Speaker 3>sealing the poll right, you don't want to get too

0:25:46.960 --> 0:25:48.760
<v Speaker 3>many white people, you don't want to get too many

0:25:48.840 --> 0:25:51.880
<v Speaker 3>college educated people. And there are some people that are

0:25:51.880 --> 0:25:55.639
<v Speaker 3>just easier to reach when you're polling colled educated folks,

0:25:55.680 --> 0:25:58.840
<v Speaker 3>white folks, women, people who lean more democratic. And those

0:25:58.880 --> 0:26:01.359
<v Speaker 3>are people as well, whether you're doing phone or online now,

0:26:01.400 --> 0:26:03.880
<v Speaker 3>because there much more inter as savvy than they used

0:26:03.920 --> 0:26:06.760
<v Speaker 3>to be five ten years ago. So what happens is

0:26:06.760 --> 0:26:08.840
<v Speaker 3>you put these guardrails up called quotas, make sure you're

0:26:08.880 --> 0:26:11.440
<v Speaker 3>not getting too many of one group. So you fill

0:26:11.520 --> 0:26:14.639
<v Speaker 3>up the easy buckets first, right, you fill up white voters,

0:26:14.680 --> 0:26:17.000
<v Speaker 3>you fill up seniors you feel up called it educated

0:26:17.160 --> 0:26:19.760
<v Speaker 3>and women, and then you're left with Okay, at the end,

0:26:19.800 --> 0:26:23.520
<v Speaker 3>we're scrambling to get black, Hispanic or Republican leaning voters,

0:26:23.600 --> 0:26:26.520
<v Speaker 3>younger voters, people who are much much, much harder to reach,

0:26:26.720 --> 0:26:29.560
<v Speaker 3>and so then you're kind of left with this weird

0:26:29.640 --> 0:26:33.480
<v Speaker 3>group or non representative group of young conservative people of

0:26:33.520 --> 0:26:35.879
<v Speaker 3>color who are not representing population, but they're who you

0:26:35.960 --> 0:26:38.440
<v Speaker 3>have left to reach, and so you get a couple

0:26:38.520 --> 0:26:40.359
<v Speaker 3>of those to fill out your quotas. And then at

0:26:40.359 --> 0:26:42.280
<v Speaker 3>the end, because you still don't have enough of them,

0:26:42.320 --> 0:26:44.480
<v Speaker 3>because again, they're very very hard to reach, and it's

0:26:44.600 --> 0:26:46.920
<v Speaker 3>very expensive to reach them, and you may not be

0:26:46.960 --> 0:26:49.560
<v Speaker 3>able to hit your deadlines. If you're just keep trying to,

0:26:49.600 --> 0:26:51.280
<v Speaker 3>you know, ram your head against the ball trying to

0:26:51.320 --> 0:26:53.919
<v Speaker 3>reach them, you upweight them. So what that means is

0:26:54.560 --> 0:26:58.240
<v Speaker 3>you make them basically worth more than one of themselves

0:26:58.440 --> 0:27:01.159
<v Speaker 3>in the actual final pool. Right, you wait, but the

0:27:01.280 --> 0:27:04.119
<v Speaker 3>entire sample to be representative of whatever you're trying to

0:27:04.119 --> 0:27:06.560
<v Speaker 3>go for. Let's say Red's registered voters or likely voters

0:27:06.600 --> 0:27:08.720
<v Speaker 3>in a particular state. So not only are you getting

0:27:08.720 --> 0:27:12.160
<v Speaker 3>people who aren't representative, you're making them more impactful than

0:27:12.560 --> 0:27:14.919
<v Speaker 3>they normally would be otherwise and you're down waiting. So

0:27:15.040 --> 0:27:17.240
<v Speaker 3>basically early on you're getting all these like white seniors

0:27:17.840 --> 0:27:21.040
<v Speaker 3>at college, which is maybe why you're seeing Biden holding

0:27:21.119 --> 0:27:24.400
<v Speaker 3>up better among white voters and seniors and things like that,

0:27:24.520 --> 0:27:27.040
<v Speaker 3>and while you see him slipping among young voters and

0:27:27.080 --> 0:27:29.320
<v Speaker 3>people of color. The truth is it's probably somewhere in

0:27:29.359 --> 0:27:31.800
<v Speaker 3>the middle of all these things. It's hard for me

0:27:31.960 --> 0:27:34.480
<v Speaker 3>to believe based on that a rematch election in a

0:27:34.640 --> 0:27:36.520
<v Speaker 3>very very long time. But it's hard for me to

0:27:36.560 --> 0:27:39.879
<v Speaker 3>see like these massive, massive swings in a rematch election

0:27:40.080 --> 0:27:42.720
<v Speaker 3>where people, most normal people don't want to think or

0:27:42.760 --> 0:27:46.000
<v Speaker 3>talk about this election. People are upset with their choices.

0:27:46.280 --> 0:27:48.000
<v Speaker 3>I don't know most of the conversations I've had with

0:27:48.040 --> 0:27:51.240
<v Speaker 3>people who aren't politically engaged, or just like Okay, I

0:27:51.280 --> 0:27:53.200
<v Speaker 3>guess we're doing this, or don't even know who the

0:27:53.240 --> 0:27:56.640
<v Speaker 3>nominees are still in June. So in that case, you'd

0:27:56.640 --> 0:27:59.520
<v Speaker 3>expect some movement on the margins, like yeah, okay, maybe

0:27:59.520 --> 0:28:02.320
<v Speaker 3>Biden lou Is, you know, three or four percentage points

0:28:02.720 --> 0:28:04.800
<v Speaker 3>among certain groups, gains, maybe some.

0:28:04.880 --> 0:28:05.600
<v Speaker 4>Back here or there.

0:28:05.600 --> 0:28:08.840
<v Speaker 3>But these twenty point swings, fifteen point swings would be,

0:28:09.280 --> 0:28:13.640
<v Speaker 3>let's just say, unprecedented, especially when both candidates are such

0:28:13.720 --> 0:28:15.760
<v Speaker 3>known quantities and very unpopular.

0:28:16.160 --> 0:28:19.800
<v Speaker 1>One of the things you said, which I thought was

0:28:20.160 --> 0:28:23.920
<v Speaker 1>very interesting, I'm doing this annoying thing that people do

0:28:24.280 --> 0:28:27.560
<v Speaker 1>where they talk about a tweet. It's a very annoying

0:28:27.600 --> 0:28:29.920
<v Speaker 1>thing when people do it. To me, I think they're stupid.

0:28:30.080 --> 0:28:32.880
<v Speaker 1>But you had a tweet that showed subthlet the effect

0:28:32.920 --> 0:28:36.240
<v Speaker 1>of so much anxiety on the left that Biden is

0:28:36.320 --> 0:28:39.280
<v Speaker 1>losing this saying that he should be winning by fifteen points,

0:28:39.520 --> 0:28:42.440
<v Speaker 1>but he's not actually in a terrible place right now,

0:28:42.480 --> 0:28:43.160
<v Speaker 1>is hey.

0:28:43.240 --> 0:28:46.480
<v Speaker 3>No, he's one, I mean historically normal pulling air away

0:28:46.520 --> 0:28:51.160
<v Speaker 3>from winning fairly comfortably. But Trump's also was one pulling

0:28:51.280 --> 0:28:53.800
<v Speaker 3>away from winning fairly comfortably too. But essentially we're looking

0:28:53.840 --> 0:28:56.040
<v Speaker 3>at a I mean five thirty eight released their forecast

0:28:56.080 --> 0:28:58.560
<v Speaker 3>today basically a coin flip, Biden as a fifty three

0:28:58.560 --> 0:29:02.000
<v Speaker 3>percent chance of winning, Trump as forty seven, and that's

0:29:02.040 --> 0:29:04.640
<v Speaker 3>been tightening since the last couple of months. And they

0:29:04.640 --> 0:29:09.080
<v Speaker 3>incorporate fundamentals like economics, consumer sentiment in addition to polling.

0:29:09.320 --> 0:29:11.600
<v Speaker 3>You know, if you look at polls today, Trump is

0:29:11.680 --> 0:29:14.640
<v Speaker 3>likely to win. But again, polls are not this far out,

0:29:14.720 --> 0:29:17.160
<v Speaker 3>are not meant to be predictive of what's happening in November.

0:29:17.200 --> 0:29:20.600
<v Speaker 3>Thought like, okay, this is again an imperfect snapshot, but

0:29:20.640 --> 0:29:22.800
<v Speaker 3>the best toool we had, as you mentioned earlier, of

0:29:22.840 --> 0:29:24.680
<v Speaker 3>where the race is right now. But we also have

0:29:24.800 --> 0:29:27.600
<v Speaker 3>these eyebrow race hitting shifts right and it's like, okay,

0:29:27.640 --> 0:29:29.800
<v Speaker 3>which one of these are real? Are they canceling each

0:29:29.840 --> 0:29:32.520
<v Speaker 3>other out? You know, is Biden doing as well among

0:29:32.600 --> 0:29:36.160
<v Speaker 3>seniors as good polls are showing? Is that counteracting other stuff?

0:29:36.160 --> 0:29:37.000
<v Speaker 3>So we don't really know.

0:29:37.120 --> 0:29:38.920
<v Speaker 1>And that was why I wanted to have you on

0:29:39.360 --> 0:29:42.280
<v Speaker 1>because the other thing I wanted you to talk about,

0:29:42.360 --> 0:29:46.360
<v Speaker 1>which I am struck by, is that in almost all

0:29:46.400 --> 0:29:52.400
<v Speaker 1>of these polls you have down ticket Democrats, namely senators

0:29:52.400 --> 0:29:56.280
<v Speaker 1>in swing states. And I'm thinking about Ohio here and

0:29:56.480 --> 0:29:59.480
<v Speaker 1>share odd is a once in a lifetime politician. But

0:29:59.680 --> 0:30:02.800
<v Speaker 1>also so he's running about ten points ahead of his competition.

0:30:02.920 --> 0:30:05.560
<v Speaker 1>He's running like fifteen points ahead of Biden.

0:30:05.360 --> 0:30:07.640
<v Speaker 3>And your friends, like the NPR Maris pulled up tea

0:30:07.720 --> 0:30:08.920
<v Speaker 3>out today that had him.

0:30:09.200 --> 0:30:10.720
<v Speaker 4>I think he was up five and.

0:30:10.640 --> 0:30:12.880
<v Speaker 3>Biden was down seven. And that's the first poll we've

0:30:12.880 --> 0:30:15.360
<v Speaker 3>had there in a while. That's actually the neat good quality.

0:30:15.480 --> 0:30:19.920
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, this Biden down brought the rest of the ticket

0:30:20.160 --> 0:30:24.239
<v Speaker 1>up for Democrats. See that in Pennsylvania, you see that

0:30:24.360 --> 0:30:28.680
<v Speaker 1>in Wisconsin. Saw that Michigan is seems a little tighter

0:30:28.720 --> 0:30:30.760
<v Speaker 1>in the center race. But I mean, you're seeing that

0:30:30.840 --> 0:30:32.840
<v Speaker 1>in a lot of these polls. So make that make

0:30:32.960 --> 0:30:33.520
<v Speaker 1>sense for me.

0:30:33.920 --> 0:30:35.960
<v Speaker 4>So I think there's two things going on.

0:30:37.040 --> 0:30:39.480
<v Speaker 3>There's a lot of races and what you're referring to

0:30:39.960 --> 0:30:44.959
<v Speaker 3>in those other states, So like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Right, Arizona.

0:30:44.520 --> 0:30:47.680
<v Speaker 1>Ruben is running way ahead. Now I think Carrie Lake

0:30:48.160 --> 0:30:49.400
<v Speaker 1>is her own problem.

0:30:49.800 --> 0:30:53.240
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, she the unique case. Yeah, so talk about Arizona first.

0:30:53.320 --> 0:30:56.520
<v Speaker 3>So that's an open seat. Here's the cinema about running

0:30:56.520 --> 0:31:00.000
<v Speaker 3>for re election Carry Lake versus Ruben Geego. So Carry

0:31:00.040 --> 0:31:03.920
<v Speaker 3>Lake is running way behind Trump and Geago is running

0:31:03.960 --> 0:31:07.280
<v Speaker 3>a couple points ahead of Biden. That's a different situation

0:31:07.320 --> 0:31:09.719
<v Speaker 3>because Carry Lake is very well known and not very

0:31:09.760 --> 0:31:12.160
<v Speaker 3>well liked, and there's even been kind of whispers among

0:31:12.200 --> 0:31:17.080
<v Speaker 3>Republican operatives that they might just triage that race, they

0:31:17.120 --> 0:31:19.560
<v Speaker 3>might give up on her at some point, and that's

0:31:19.640 --> 0:31:21.720
<v Speaker 3>too early to say, but the fact they're even talking

0:31:21.760 --> 0:31:25.000
<v Speaker 3>about that in a state like Arizona is very telling.

0:31:25.240 --> 0:31:30.200
<v Speaker 3>But these other races in Nevada, in Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania,

0:31:30.520 --> 0:31:35.080
<v Speaker 3>you have the Democratic candidacity incumbent running out evenly with

0:31:35.080 --> 0:31:37.280
<v Speaker 3>Biden a little bit more, maybe a point or two

0:31:37.320 --> 0:31:40.560
<v Speaker 3>ahead on average, but the Republican is way behind Trump.

0:31:40.600 --> 0:31:41.800
<v Speaker 3>So a lot of that might have to do with

0:31:41.920 --> 0:31:44.400
<v Speaker 3>name recognition. They're like, I don't really know this person.

0:31:44.680 --> 0:31:47.120
<v Speaker 3>I'm not going to necessarily so that they'll probably, you know,

0:31:47.320 --> 0:31:50.120
<v Speaker 3>come home and vote the Republican We don't really know yet.

0:31:50.280 --> 0:31:52.120
<v Speaker 3>We don't really know if there's going to be we're

0:31:52.120 --> 0:31:54.160
<v Speaker 3>going to see a big return to split ticket voting

0:31:54.160 --> 0:31:57.360
<v Speaker 3>this year. It's been on the decline in recent cycles.

0:31:57.520 --> 0:32:01.880
<v Speaker 3>We only have, I believe, two senators that represent states

0:32:01.880 --> 0:32:04.840
<v Speaker 3>said the other party one in twenty twenty. That's Susan

0:32:04.880 --> 0:32:06.800
<v Speaker 3>Collins and Maine and Ron Johnson in Wisconsin.

0:32:06.840 --> 0:32:07.160
<v Speaker 4>That's it.

0:32:07.200 --> 0:32:09.920
<v Speaker 3>The other ninety eight senators represent states that they're party

0:32:09.920 --> 0:32:12.280
<v Speaker 3>won at the presidential level in twenty twenty. So it's

0:32:12.560 --> 0:32:14.840
<v Speaker 3>spliticket voting is not a big thing. The poles are

0:32:14.840 --> 0:32:18.520
<v Speaker 3>showing that it might be, particularly in Ohio, where I

0:32:18.520 --> 0:32:21.040
<v Speaker 3>think Sharon Brown's winning like ten percent of Trump voters,

0:32:21.440 --> 0:32:24.120
<v Speaker 3>has a much higher favorability rating. And then there's also

0:32:24.240 --> 0:32:27.560
<v Speaker 3>John Tester in Montana running in a deep, deep red

0:32:27.600 --> 0:32:31.120
<v Speaker 3>state but has shown some resiliency in the past, even

0:32:31.120 --> 0:32:34.160
<v Speaker 3>more so than Shah Brown. So they face uphill battles,

0:32:34.360 --> 0:32:37.480
<v Speaker 3>particularly if split ticket voting does not increase. They need

0:32:37.680 --> 0:32:40.360
<v Speaker 3>to win a bunch of Trump voters to have a chance.

0:32:40.560 --> 0:32:43.400
<v Speaker 3>But what I'm seeing elsewhere is that it's not that

0:32:43.560 --> 0:32:48.960
<v Speaker 3>Democrats are necessarily senate. Democrats are massively outperforming Biden. It's

0:32:49.000 --> 0:32:53.000
<v Speaker 3>that Senate Republican candidates are massively underperforming Trump. I kind

0:32:53.040 --> 0:32:55.640
<v Speaker 3>of expect a great convergence towards the end when people

0:32:55.640 --> 0:32:58.200
<v Speaker 3>start paying attention to these races a bit more. But

0:32:58.400 --> 0:33:01.560
<v Speaker 3>how much that converges, Like does Biden's numbers go up

0:33:01.760 --> 0:33:03.520
<v Speaker 3>or did the Senate Democrats numbers go down?

0:33:03.640 --> 0:33:04.640
<v Speaker 4>And that remains to be seen.

0:33:04.880 --> 0:33:08.920
<v Speaker 1>I've done some light covering of these Senate candidates and

0:33:08.960 --> 0:33:12.200
<v Speaker 1>they are bad. Like you know, they tend to be

0:33:12.800 --> 0:33:17.240
<v Speaker 1>a lot of rich people who can self fund and

0:33:17.760 --> 0:33:20.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, may not be the best person for the candidate.

0:33:20.320 --> 0:33:24.240
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of carpetbagging going on. I'm thinking about Wisconsin.

0:33:25.120 --> 0:33:30.640
<v Speaker 1>In Pennsylvania you have Dave McCormick, you have Eric Hovedy.

0:33:30.920 --> 0:33:35.000
<v Speaker 1>In Wisconsin you have these rich white guys who you know,

0:33:35.160 --> 0:33:38.560
<v Speaker 1>can sell fund but aren't necessarily even from the places

0:33:38.560 --> 0:33:39.440
<v Speaker 1>they want to represent.

0:33:39.840 --> 0:33:40.040
<v Speaker 2>Right.

0:33:40.120 --> 0:33:42.800
<v Speaker 3>So in Montana you have Tim Sheehey grew up in

0:33:42.840 --> 0:33:46.560
<v Speaker 3>Minnesota and so elsewhere, came back to Montana. As you mentioned,

0:33:46.640 --> 0:33:48.600
<v Speaker 3>Dave McCormick's I still lives in Connecticut.

0:33:48.720 --> 0:33:51.320
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, Westbark, Connecticut. Yes, we love it.

0:33:51.760 --> 0:33:54.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, And running in Pennsylvania. I have Eric Hovdy in

0:33:54.960 --> 0:33:57.960
<v Speaker 3>Wisconsin who was supposed to be campaigning in Wisconsin but

0:33:58.000 --> 0:34:01.280
<v Speaker 3>instead was at the beach in the Beach in California

0:34:01.320 --> 0:34:03.600
<v Speaker 3>where he I think spill whims Or has a house there.

0:34:03.760 --> 0:34:07.200
<v Speaker 3>And even Sam Brown and Nevada ran for Congress in Texas.

0:34:07.240 --> 0:34:08.680
<v Speaker 3>I believe this a couple of years ago.

0:34:08.800 --> 0:34:10.960
<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry, I love this so much so.

0:34:11.000 --> 0:34:13.520
<v Speaker 3>Their strategy Steam Days is the head of a seeing

0:34:13.520 --> 0:34:15.839
<v Speaker 3>of recruit a lot of these candidates. Yeah, like you said,

0:34:15.880 --> 0:34:18.279
<v Speaker 3>they want these self funding candidates. They think that a

0:34:18.400 --> 0:34:21.040
<v Speaker 3>first time candidates for the most part, who don't have

0:34:21.040 --> 0:34:23.960
<v Speaker 3>like a legislative baggage, which is theoretically a plus. But

0:34:23.960 --> 0:34:27.240
<v Speaker 3>they're also pretty untested as candidates, which has not gone

0:34:27.280 --> 0:34:30.760
<v Speaker 3>well for downballot Republican candidates in twenty twenty and twenty

0:34:30.800 --> 0:34:33.040
<v Speaker 3>twenty two, and they coughed up some pretty winnable races

0:34:33.040 --> 0:34:36.000
<v Speaker 3>with some pretty undisciplined candidates.

0:34:36.040 --> 0:34:36.720
<v Speaker 4>I'll put it lately.

0:34:36.920 --> 0:34:40.279
<v Speaker 1>That money is supposed to go to Trump's legal fees. Noah,

0:34:40.560 --> 0:34:43.640
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for making this make sense a

0:34:43.640 --> 0:34:47.239
<v Speaker 1>little bit. You know, I think that it's all we have,

0:34:47.960 --> 0:34:50.319
<v Speaker 1>so we just have to make it fucking work. But

0:34:50.400 --> 0:34:53.279
<v Speaker 1>we have to realize that it really is a blunt indicator.

0:34:53.719 --> 0:34:55.480
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and I would say that we still have a

0:34:55.520 --> 0:34:58.200
<v Speaker 3>long way to go. I know polls are frustrating and confusing,

0:34:58.280 --> 0:35:01.760
<v Speaker 3>and I totally get that. I would not overly focus

0:35:01.880 --> 0:35:04.920
<v Speaker 3>on polls until we get to Labor Day, just for

0:35:05.000 --> 0:35:08.759
<v Speaker 3>everyone's mental sanity. I'll be following it closely, but you

0:35:08.840 --> 0:35:11.120
<v Speaker 3>all don't have to. It's okay. Things will become much

0:35:11.120 --> 0:35:12.600
<v Speaker 3>clear after the conventions.

0:35:12.800 --> 0:35:20.640
<v Speaker 1>Thank you, Thank Nally. Sarah Ellison is a reporter at

0:35:20.680 --> 0:35:26.160
<v Speaker 1>the Washington Post. Welcome too Fast Politics, Sarah.

0:35:25.560 --> 0:35:27.399
<v Speaker 5>Thank you so much for having me.

0:35:27.920 --> 0:35:30.319
<v Speaker 1>So one of the things you've been writing about, which

0:35:30.360 --> 0:35:32.440
<v Speaker 1>is one of the many things that keeps me up

0:35:32.440 --> 0:35:35.320
<v Speaker 1>at night. I have a couple. It's a teared system

0:35:35.400 --> 0:35:37.560
<v Speaker 1>of things that keep me up at night. But is

0:35:37.920 --> 0:35:42.319
<v Speaker 1>Trump was found guilty and immediately pivoted to trying to

0:35:42.480 --> 0:35:46.400
<v Speaker 1>tear down the legal system, one of the last great

0:35:46.440 --> 0:35:51.680
<v Speaker 1>sort of norms in our very kind of shaky American democracy.

0:35:52.120 --> 0:35:54.760
<v Speaker 1>Can you explain to us sort of what that looked

0:35:54.800 --> 0:35:57.160
<v Speaker 1>like and what the consequences of it are?

0:35:57.760 --> 0:36:01.759
<v Speaker 5>Sure he didn't even wait for the verse. What we

0:36:01.760 --> 0:36:05.520
<v Speaker 5>were watching during that entire trial is that it was.

0:36:05.560 --> 0:36:08.920
<v Speaker 5>You know, for months, his advisors expected that he would

0:36:08.920 --> 0:36:12.920
<v Speaker 5>be convicted by a New York jury, and they were

0:36:12.960 --> 0:36:17.640
<v Speaker 5>hopeful that he would not be convicted, but just in case,

0:36:18.400 --> 0:36:22.760
<v Speaker 5>he and his team waged an all out war against

0:36:22.840 --> 0:36:26.400
<v Speaker 5>the judicial system before the verdict even came in, hoping

0:36:26.520 --> 0:36:29.160
<v Speaker 5>to whatever that verdict was going to be, he was

0:36:29.200 --> 0:36:32.719
<v Speaker 5>going to blood the political damage and position himself as

0:36:32.760 --> 0:36:38.080
<v Speaker 5>a martyr. And you saw that day after day, Trump

0:36:38.120 --> 0:36:42.840
<v Speaker 5>attacking the judge, the judge's family, Trump attacking the gag

0:36:42.960 --> 0:36:45.920
<v Speaker 5>order that the judge placed on him so he wouldn't

0:36:45.920 --> 0:36:49.440
<v Speaker 5>intimidate witnesses in the case. But I think the thing

0:36:49.480 --> 0:36:52.480
<v Speaker 5>that people really were struck by is that it wasn't

0:36:52.520 --> 0:36:55.759
<v Speaker 5>just Trump. It was and it wasn't just Trump's surrogates,

0:36:55.800 --> 0:36:58.040
<v Speaker 5>you know, the people that you normally see going on

0:36:58.080 --> 0:37:02.239
<v Speaker 5>social media to repeat his attacks and amplify his attacks.

0:37:02.920 --> 0:37:06.160
<v Speaker 5>You saw a totally different branch of government. You saw

0:37:06.280 --> 0:37:10.759
<v Speaker 5>members of Congress show up to attack again, not just

0:37:10.840 --> 0:37:14.600
<v Speaker 5>the judge, but the jury system. Like Tommy Tuberville said,

0:37:14.920 --> 0:37:18.200
<v Speaker 5>these so called Americans who were serving on the jury, right,

0:37:18.360 --> 0:37:21.720
<v Speaker 5>and like, we don't have anything better than the jury

0:37:21.760 --> 0:37:23.800
<v Speaker 5>of our peers, Like that's as good as it gets,

0:37:23.840 --> 0:37:26.640
<v Speaker 5>Like that's all we can offer. And so you know,

0:37:26.719 --> 0:37:30.080
<v Speaker 5>what we were struck by is that it's all politics.

0:37:30.280 --> 0:37:35.560
<v Speaker 5>It's all for Trump and his allies. There's no institution

0:37:36.080 --> 0:37:39.680
<v Speaker 5>of our democracy that they are unafraid to attack, and

0:37:39.960 --> 0:37:42.120
<v Speaker 5>these attacks on the judiciary, Like the judiciary is the

0:37:42.160 --> 0:37:45.160
<v Speaker 5>most popular branch of government. It's something that people still

0:37:45.239 --> 0:37:48.560
<v Speaker 5>have some faith in. And every academic we talked to

0:37:48.719 --> 0:37:52.440
<v Speaker 5>said that this case felt a body blow to that trust.

0:37:52.640 --> 0:37:55.320
<v Speaker 5>And so we're just sort of watching it degrade before

0:37:55.360 --> 0:37:55.800
<v Speaker 5>our eyes.

0:37:56.280 --> 0:37:58.200
<v Speaker 1>So why is it?

0:37:58.280 --> 0:37:58.640
<v Speaker 5>A mean?

0:37:58.840 --> 0:38:01.359
<v Speaker 1>I want you're on this straight news side, so I

0:38:01.360 --> 0:38:04.719
<v Speaker 1>don't want to make you give an opinion here, but

0:38:04.880 --> 0:38:07.880
<v Speaker 1>I'm curious. It's sort of if you try to make

0:38:07.920 --> 0:38:11.080
<v Speaker 1>it make sense to me. Why is it that when

0:38:11.120 --> 0:38:15.959
<v Speaker 1>Trump goes after a branch of government like he's doing

0:38:15.960 --> 0:38:18.560
<v Speaker 1>with the judiciary right now, but he has done with

0:38:18.880 --> 0:38:23.040
<v Speaker 1>Congress and with our elections are free and fair elections.

0:38:23.360 --> 0:38:26.640
<v Speaker 1>Why is it that that works? And it doesn't work

0:38:26.640 --> 0:38:28.719
<v Speaker 1>with everyone, It only works with his people. But why

0:38:28.760 --> 0:38:31.839
<v Speaker 1>does it work with his people? And why is it

0:38:32.239 --> 0:38:34.160
<v Speaker 1>why can nothing penetrate that?

0:38:34.719 --> 0:38:36.880
<v Speaker 5>I mean, one of the things. I just did a

0:38:36.920 --> 0:38:42.399
<v Speaker 5>piece on the effort post January sixth, twenty twenty one,

0:38:42.840 --> 0:38:46.480
<v Speaker 5>to keep Trump's voice off of social media, right, like,

0:38:46.560 --> 0:38:50.719
<v Speaker 5>there is this effort across the board Twitter, Facebook, YouTube

0:38:51.040 --> 0:38:54.080
<v Speaker 5>after January sixth. The idea was that Trump's message needed

0:38:54.120 --> 0:38:58.319
<v Speaker 5>to be curtailed because it caused violence right the IDAAE

0:38:58.480 --> 0:39:02.120
<v Speaker 5>and violated you know, all these social media platforms had

0:39:02.280 --> 0:39:06.440
<v Speaker 5>laid around with different standards and trust in safety teams

0:39:06.480 --> 0:39:10.560
<v Speaker 5>and efforts to make their platforms quote unquote safer and

0:39:10.640 --> 0:39:13.759
<v Speaker 5>more reliable, and then after January sixth, there was this

0:39:14.040 --> 0:39:17.799
<v Speaker 5>across the board fear that Trump had used his platform

0:39:17.920 --> 0:39:22.000
<v Speaker 5>to encourage violence, and that is a clear violation of

0:39:22.040 --> 0:39:25.600
<v Speaker 5>everybody's policies. So he was taken off of social media

0:39:25.680 --> 0:39:28.680
<v Speaker 5>and it was like banning him from a twenty first

0:39:28.680 --> 0:39:32.200
<v Speaker 5>century town square. And the idea was, this is going

0:39:32.239 --> 0:39:36.680
<v Speaker 5>to protect people from these harmful messages. And what we

0:39:36.800 --> 0:39:40.200
<v Speaker 5>looked at was that three years later that had been

0:39:40.239 --> 0:39:43.719
<v Speaker 5>an abject failure because Trump's message was as strong as effort.

0:39:44.040 --> 0:39:49.040
<v Speaker 5>More people believe that January sixth was a peaceful protest

0:39:49.160 --> 0:39:51.800
<v Speaker 5>than they did immediately in the aftermath of that case.

0:39:52.400 --> 0:39:56.120
<v Speaker 5>And so Trump is a potent political force. His messages

0:39:56.200 --> 0:39:59.960
<v Speaker 5>get out even though all he's doing is posting on

0:40:00.120 --> 0:40:03.680
<v Speaker 5>true social And what we sort of dug into there

0:40:03.800 --> 0:40:05.520
<v Speaker 5>was why is that This is a long way of

0:40:05.560 --> 0:40:10.080
<v Speaker 5>answering your question, but why is that message so crucial

0:40:10.120 --> 0:40:13.520
<v Speaker 5>for people to continue to get out there? It feels

0:40:13.640 --> 0:40:16.960
<v Speaker 5>very obvious in some ways, but there are both political

0:40:17.000 --> 0:40:22.120
<v Speaker 5>advantages to mimicking his messages. You see that with Elie Stephonic,

0:40:22.160 --> 0:40:24.800
<v Speaker 5>you see that with Jim Jordan. There's a tremendous amount

0:40:25.080 --> 0:40:27.440
<v Speaker 5>you can get out of Donald Trump if you are

0:40:27.480 --> 0:40:31.760
<v Speaker 5>a Republican trying to advance your career. There are also

0:40:31.840 --> 0:40:37.680
<v Speaker 5>great financial benefits for people people who have spread his

0:40:37.800 --> 0:40:40.960
<v Speaker 5>messages and created mini media empires out of doing that.

0:40:41.360 --> 0:40:43.560
<v Speaker 5>And that is you know, when Trump went to war

0:40:43.560 --> 0:40:47.600
<v Speaker 5>with Fox News after the twenty twenty election, there was

0:40:47.640 --> 0:40:53.760
<v Speaker 5>a whole outpouring of new conservative voices who were finding

0:40:53.800 --> 0:40:59.080
<v Speaker 5>their way to make money off of election denialism and

0:40:59.160 --> 0:41:02.160
<v Speaker 5>Donald Trump, and Steve Bannon told me for a story

0:41:02.160 --> 0:41:05.560
<v Speaker 5>that I did recently that that's what the economy of

0:41:05.600 --> 0:41:09.319
<v Speaker 5>the Internet relies on the Trumps of the world and

0:41:09.360 --> 0:41:12.120
<v Speaker 5>the mini Trumps of the world to get that message

0:41:12.160 --> 0:41:16.160
<v Speaker 5>out and to create clickbit content, to create viral content.

0:41:16.520 --> 0:41:19.560
<v Speaker 5>So there's a real financial benefit to doing that, and

0:41:19.600 --> 0:41:22.680
<v Speaker 5>then there's just the community benefit of you're with Trump.

0:41:23.040 --> 0:41:26.759
<v Speaker 5>And a very strong message that I think people genuinely

0:41:26.840 --> 0:41:30.280
<v Speaker 5>believe is that the federal government has been weaponized against

0:41:30.360 --> 0:41:33.200
<v Speaker 5>Donald Trump. In all of these cases, whether they're state

0:41:33.239 --> 0:41:38.080
<v Speaker 5>cases or federal cases, are being kind of manipulated by

0:41:38.239 --> 0:41:41.640
<v Speaker 5>Joe Biden. I mean, this is the message and being

0:41:41.680 --> 0:41:47.520
<v Speaker 5>weaponized against an opposition leader. And that is a strong

0:41:47.560 --> 0:41:50.440
<v Speaker 5>message that Donald Trump has seeded, and he's done it

0:41:50.480 --> 0:41:54.719
<v Speaker 5>with his allies, and people genuinely believe that. And now

0:41:54.760 --> 0:41:59.920
<v Speaker 5>we're dealing Marco Rubio, who used to attack Trump pretty

0:42:00.400 --> 0:42:04.720
<v Speaker 5>strongly in the twenty sixteen election, is sending a message

0:42:04.719 --> 0:42:10.440
<v Speaker 5>to his followers on X that watching Donald Trump's trial

0:42:10.600 --> 0:42:12.440
<v Speaker 5>was like watching a show trial in Cuba.

0:42:12.840 --> 0:42:13.040
<v Speaker 2>Right.

0:42:13.120 --> 0:42:16.520
<v Speaker 5>That was insane, right, I mean, you can call it

0:42:16.840 --> 0:42:18.680
<v Speaker 5>say a lot of things about that case, and I

0:42:18.719 --> 0:42:20.959
<v Speaker 5>know a lot of people about the hush money case

0:42:21.000 --> 0:42:23.360
<v Speaker 5>and their different views on the strength of the case

0:42:23.440 --> 0:42:25.600
<v Speaker 5>and whether it should have been brought, But it wasn't

0:42:25.640 --> 0:42:26.600
<v Speaker 5>a show trial.

0:42:26.800 --> 0:42:27.520
<v Speaker 1>Right right?

0:42:27.719 --> 0:42:27.959
<v Speaker 2>Right?

0:42:28.080 --> 0:42:31.640
<v Speaker 1>No? No, I mean here's a question for you though,

0:42:31.920 --> 0:42:34.759
<v Speaker 1>if you were looking at this sort of like, I mean,

0:42:34.840 --> 0:42:40.279
<v Speaker 1>how much of Americans are in that information bubble? Right this?

0:42:40.800 --> 0:42:44.280
<v Speaker 1>You know? I mean what seventy seven million, eighty million

0:42:44.280 --> 0:42:47.200
<v Speaker 1>Americans voted for Donald Trump? When you look at there's

0:42:47.280 --> 0:42:49.880
<v Speaker 1>all sorts of polling that came out last week about

0:42:49.920 --> 0:42:53.440
<v Speaker 1>how like if you read the newspaper, you're like eighty

0:42:53.440 --> 0:42:55.759
<v Speaker 1>percent more likely you vote for Biden, right if you

0:42:56.480 --> 0:42:59.840
<v Speaker 1>just read any newspaper, right except possibly the New York Post.

0:43:00.400 --> 0:43:04.120
<v Speaker 1>So is it, Joss? This information bubble is a just

0:43:04.280 --> 0:43:08.600
<v Speaker 1>tech companies giving us sort of this pableum that isn't

0:43:08.960 --> 0:43:12.600
<v Speaker 1>actual verified news sources. I mean, is that where this

0:43:12.920 --> 0:43:15.800
<v Speaker 1>where the sort of echo chamber is being built?

0:43:15.960 --> 0:43:18.920
<v Speaker 5>Or is there something I'm missing here? It's such a

0:43:18.920 --> 0:43:21.319
<v Speaker 5>good question, and I've actually talked to a bunch of

0:43:21.800 --> 0:43:27.239
<v Speaker 5>misinformation researchers about this, who say themselves that we have

0:43:27.920 --> 0:43:32.360
<v Speaker 5>wildly over credited the power of social media.

0:43:32.800 --> 0:43:36.560
<v Speaker 1>Oh good, thank you. You know, I ask everyone this

0:43:36.680 --> 0:43:39.640
<v Speaker 1>question and most people either like, don't answer it or

0:43:39.680 --> 0:43:43.279
<v Speaker 1>tell me I'm dumb. So to hear someone actually like

0:43:43.480 --> 0:43:47.000
<v Speaker 1>address this is like probably the best interview I've ever done.

0:43:47.040 --> 0:43:49.759
<v Speaker 1>So explain to me why we're overestimating it because I

0:43:50.440 --> 0:43:51.200
<v Speaker 1>love to hear it.

0:43:51.400 --> 0:43:53.920
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean, this is like I shouldn't be answering

0:43:53.920 --> 0:43:56.040
<v Speaker 5>because I only really have half the answer, but I

0:43:56.160 --> 0:44:00.480
<v Speaker 5>was fine. It's brilliant researcher from Harvard. His name is Johailer,

0:44:00.840 --> 0:44:03.759
<v Speaker 5>he has one I mean, he's just so well regarded

0:44:03.840 --> 0:44:07.279
<v Speaker 5>in the world of online disinformation, and he has been

0:44:07.320 --> 0:44:10.640
<v Speaker 5>studying it for a quarter of a century. And he

0:44:10.920 --> 0:44:14.000
<v Speaker 5>said to me in a relatively brief interview, although I've

0:44:14.000 --> 0:44:16.759
<v Speaker 5>read his book and was asking about it, he was

0:44:16.800 --> 0:44:20.080
<v Speaker 5>the person who said, we have focused too much on

0:44:20.120 --> 0:44:22.480
<v Speaker 5>the impact of social media. And he's like, now I'm

0:44:22.480 --> 0:44:25.320
<v Speaker 5>going to after a quarter of a century, I'm turning

0:44:25.360 --> 0:44:29.839
<v Speaker 5>my research efforts into looking at the political economy of

0:44:29.920 --> 0:44:32.840
<v Speaker 5>this country and the way that it has created. And

0:44:32.880 --> 0:44:35.399
<v Speaker 5>he didn't use this term exactly, but I think it's

0:44:35.400 --> 0:44:38.640
<v Speaker 5>such a relevant way for us to think about this.

0:44:39.080 --> 0:44:44.120
<v Speaker 5>We talk about the supply of disinformation constantly and how

0:44:44.160 --> 0:44:47.839
<v Speaker 5>to stem the supply of disinformation. We don't talk as

0:44:47.920 --> 0:44:51.920
<v Speaker 5>much about the demand for it and how hotent that is.

0:44:52.360 --> 0:44:54.799
<v Speaker 5>And I think that, I mean, it's that's more than like,

0:44:54.960 --> 0:44:57.200
<v Speaker 5>let's not go sit in anymore diners and talk to

0:44:57.200 --> 0:45:01.200
<v Speaker 5>people about why they might believe conspirac theories. But I'm

0:45:01.200 --> 0:45:03.120
<v Speaker 5>going to piece together a few interviews that I've done

0:45:03.160 --> 0:45:05.920
<v Speaker 5>with different people about this, which is that during COVID,

0:45:06.200 --> 0:45:08.839
<v Speaker 5>there was a time where people felt like they were

0:45:08.880 --> 0:45:12.560
<v Speaker 5>being fed information that turned out to not be true

0:45:12.719 --> 0:45:16.960
<v Speaker 5>later right like at the beginning of COVID, Anthony Fauchu

0:45:17.000 --> 0:45:18.640
<v Speaker 5>was saying, don't wear a mask. You don't need to

0:45:18.680 --> 0:45:21.440
<v Speaker 5>wear a mask, and then the you know, the advice

0:45:21.600 --> 0:45:26.680
<v Speaker 5>changed and people can find sort of real reasons in

0:45:26.760 --> 0:45:30.880
<v Speaker 5>that moment to think that the authorities are telling you

0:45:31.000 --> 0:45:35.000
<v Speaker 5>the truth, even though with such a fluid moment, people

0:45:35.000 --> 0:45:37.279
<v Speaker 5>didn't really know what the truth was. Where did the

0:45:37.360 --> 0:45:38.279
<v Speaker 5>virus come from?

0:45:38.360 --> 0:45:38.400
<v Speaker 2>What?

0:45:38.920 --> 0:45:41.200
<v Speaker 5>You know, the whole world was turned upside down, so

0:45:41.280 --> 0:45:44.319
<v Speaker 5>that kind of put people in a frame of mind

0:45:44.080 --> 0:45:46.920
<v Speaker 5>that you didn't know what to believe. And then on

0:45:47.040 --> 0:45:49.560
<v Speaker 5>that year was just so nuts because then you had

0:45:49.560 --> 0:45:52.240
<v Speaker 5>the election and you had the conspiracies about the election.

0:45:52.880 --> 0:45:56.719
<v Speaker 5>And I think during that period the notion of when

0:45:56.760 --> 0:45:59.560
<v Speaker 5>I talk to people about who know way more than

0:45:59.560 --> 0:46:02.160
<v Speaker 5>I do and have studied this, they say that that

0:46:02.280 --> 0:46:04.719
<v Speaker 5>was sort of the stew that led us it was

0:46:04.920 --> 0:46:09.880
<v Speaker 5>such a disruption in society about what people believed was

0:46:09.920 --> 0:46:14.040
<v Speaker 5>true and what they could rely upon that now we're

0:46:14.160 --> 0:46:18.759
<v Speaker 5>in this moment where the demand for answers is so

0:46:19.000 --> 0:46:22.640
<v Speaker 5>great and the supply of like definitive answers are sort

0:46:22.680 --> 0:46:25.600
<v Speaker 5>of they're scarcer than the demand, so people sort of

0:46:25.600 --> 0:46:28.640
<v Speaker 5>fill in the gaps in their own way. If that

0:46:29.000 --> 0:46:30.000
<v Speaker 5>makes sense.

0:46:30.280 --> 0:46:33.640
<v Speaker 1>No, it actually does. This is like I have to

0:46:33.680 --> 0:46:35.960
<v Speaker 1>tell you sometimes I have a question and I just

0:46:36.000 --> 0:46:40.359
<v Speaker 1>can't fucking get anyone to answer it. And this idea

0:46:40.480 --> 0:46:42.520
<v Speaker 1>of and one of the reasons why I love having

0:46:42.600 --> 0:46:45.760
<v Speaker 1>a podcast is because I get to ask people questions

0:46:45.800 --> 0:46:48.720
<v Speaker 1>that I need to answer to, and you know, different

0:46:48.800 --> 0:46:52.120
<v Speaker 1>kinds of people, et cetera. But this idea that the

0:46:52.160 --> 0:46:56.480
<v Speaker 1>information we needed was not available and so bad information

0:46:56.680 --> 0:46:59.520
<v Speaker 1>filled the void makes so much sense.

0:47:00.080 --> 0:47:03.480
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, and I'll add one other like data point into

0:47:03.520 --> 0:47:07.520
<v Speaker 5>this from again people whose job it is to study

0:47:08.080 --> 0:47:11.480
<v Speaker 5>bad information and how it travels. And I think everybody

0:47:11.560 --> 0:47:14.040
<v Speaker 5>understands this a lot better now. But we've we focused

0:47:14.080 --> 0:47:18.279
<v Speaker 5>so much on like top down bad information, like what

0:47:18.320 --> 0:47:21.200
<v Speaker 5>does the Russian government want to do? What does Iran

0:47:21.280 --> 0:47:23.719
<v Speaker 5>want to do? What does China want to do? And

0:47:23.760 --> 0:47:28.200
<v Speaker 5>that's all there still. But what these researchers have told

0:47:28.239 --> 0:47:31.239
<v Speaker 5>me is that there's a much because we've established this

0:47:31.320 --> 0:47:33.840
<v Speaker 5>and there's now a narrative and it's like the government

0:47:33.880 --> 0:47:37.080
<v Speaker 5>is weaponized, or you know, the government is weaponized against

0:47:37.080 --> 0:47:41.360
<v Speaker 5>its enemies, or the government is lying to you about COVID,

0:47:41.760 --> 0:47:46.279
<v Speaker 5>the election was stolen. Those are big, big narratives. And

0:47:46.360 --> 0:47:51.080
<v Speaker 5>you can have any random person on Twitter can take

0:47:51.120 --> 0:47:54.400
<v Speaker 5>a photograph of, you know, a ballot in a trash

0:47:54.440 --> 0:47:58.759
<v Speaker 5>can and say what is this? It looks like X

0:47:58.920 --> 0:48:02.040
<v Speaker 5>is happening and then and that's like a bottom up

0:48:02.440 --> 0:48:04.640
<v Speaker 5>effort as opposed to a top down effort. And you

0:48:04.640 --> 0:48:08.840
<v Speaker 5>don't even need to want to be creating a different narrative,

0:48:08.880 --> 0:48:13.040
<v Speaker 5>but that one data point of a random user on

0:48:13.080 --> 0:48:17.480
<v Speaker 5>Twitter can get picked up and just spread around in

0:48:17.520 --> 0:48:21.680
<v Speaker 5>a way that is sort of entirely divorced from the

0:48:21.719 --> 0:48:25.359
<v Speaker 5>initial intent of that poster. But the idea being that, like,

0:48:25.440 --> 0:48:28.440
<v Speaker 5>it's not just someone is feeding you a line of

0:48:28.480 --> 0:48:31.480
<v Speaker 5>a created narrative. It is that the narrative is there

0:48:32.160 --> 0:48:36.520
<v Speaker 5>and you can bottom up contribute to that. It's the

0:48:36.560 --> 0:48:38.600
<v Speaker 5>old thing of like I'm just asking questions, what is

0:48:38.640 --> 0:48:41.399
<v Speaker 5>this ballot? Doing here on the street, and then like, boy,

0:48:41.440 --> 0:48:43.600
<v Speaker 5>are there going to be you know, ten other people

0:48:43.680 --> 0:48:45.200
<v Speaker 5>who are going to pick that up and have their

0:48:45.200 --> 0:48:48.359
<v Speaker 5>own answer, And then Gateway Pundit is going to come

0:48:48.400 --> 0:48:50.560
<v Speaker 5>in and write a story about it, and then that's

0:48:50.600 --> 0:48:53.120
<v Speaker 5>a headline that then can be picked up and kind

0:48:53.160 --> 0:48:55.920
<v Speaker 5>of taken and done something else with. So these are

0:48:56.280 --> 0:48:59.560
<v Speaker 5>I think it's it's people who study what we call

0:48:59.640 --> 0:49:03.600
<v Speaker 5>dissem information and misinformation are moving away from those terms

0:49:03.920 --> 0:49:07.880
<v Speaker 5>because they're totally ineffective. You can't ever convince anybody that

0:49:07.880 --> 0:49:10.640
<v Speaker 5>they've fallen for a piece of bad information. It's just

0:49:10.680 --> 0:49:15.759
<v Speaker 5>like a completely losing exercise, right, And it's also like

0:49:15.800 --> 0:49:19.080
<v Speaker 5>it moves faster than you ever could try to tamp

0:49:19.160 --> 0:49:21.600
<v Speaker 5>it down. So we talked to secretaries of State's office

0:49:21.640 --> 0:49:24.319
<v Speaker 5>who say, well, last time we tried to have a

0:49:24.360 --> 0:49:26.839
<v Speaker 5>strong social media policy where we would like knock down

0:49:26.880 --> 0:49:29.000
<v Speaker 5>these false rumors, they don't even try to do it

0:49:29.000 --> 0:49:32.400
<v Speaker 5>anymore because it doesn't work. And so I think that

0:49:32.440 --> 0:49:35.040
<v Speaker 5>we're kind of moving into I don't know, is this

0:49:35.120 --> 0:49:39.799
<v Speaker 5>like two point zero bad information studies where people are

0:49:39.840 --> 0:49:43.719
<v Speaker 5>really realizing there's no putting the toothpaste back in the

0:49:43.760 --> 0:49:46.440
<v Speaker 5>bottle or whatever, like the election was stolen in twenty

0:49:46.480 --> 0:49:48.439
<v Speaker 5>twenty is a narrative that is out there. It doesn't

0:49:48.440 --> 0:49:50.839
<v Speaker 5>matter how many court cases or how many Donald Trump

0:49:50.840 --> 0:49:54.400
<v Speaker 5>appointed judges say that that wasn't the case. Like, it's there.

0:49:54.640 --> 0:50:00.400
<v Speaker 5>And so the question is, now, what does society do

0:50:00.760 --> 0:50:04.320
<v Speaker 5>with that information? And it all comes back to the

0:50:04.640 --> 0:50:08.560
<v Speaker 5>original Donald Trump verdict story, which is that there are

0:50:08.600 --> 0:50:10.680
<v Speaker 5>a lot of people. I mean, you can have that

0:50:10.880 --> 0:50:14.040
<v Speaker 5>that is a fact that had happened. There was a

0:50:14.080 --> 0:50:18.480
<v Speaker 5>guilty verdict thirty four counts, a jury of his peers.

0:50:18.120 --> 0:50:20.279
<v Speaker 1>And if you want to you know, if you do

0:50:20.400 --> 0:50:22.919
<v Speaker 1>crimes in New York, you got to sit in front

0:50:22.960 --> 0:50:25.359
<v Speaker 1>of a New York jury. If you do crimes in Mississippi,

0:50:25.440 --> 0:50:28.960
<v Speaker 1>maybe they don't necessarily care. If you do crimes or

0:50:29.160 --> 0:50:33.560
<v Speaker 1>Palm Beach. Maybe he'd get a better, more partisan jury

0:50:33.640 --> 0:50:35.919
<v Speaker 1>that would let him off in Palm Beach. But look,

0:50:36.000 --> 0:50:39.080
<v Speaker 1>Hunter Biden just got found guilty, and he had a

0:50:39.160 --> 0:50:42.080
<v Speaker 1>jury of his peers in the state of Delaware where

0:50:42.080 --> 0:50:45.279
<v Speaker 1>his father is pretty much Elvis, and he got found

0:50:45.320 --> 0:50:48.360
<v Speaker 1>guilty too, which means the law is the law for

0:50:48.440 --> 0:50:51.920
<v Speaker 1>everyone and is a real win for our justice system,

0:50:52.320 --> 0:50:55.319
<v Speaker 1>and we should all be celebrating it because this is

0:50:55.760 --> 0:51:00.000
<v Speaker 1>what we want, is a blind justice system that looks

0:51:00.120 --> 0:51:02.600
<v Speaker 1>set the facts and that does what it's supposed to do.

0:51:03.040 --> 0:51:06.640
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean, your weight is very apt here, and

0:51:06.680 --> 0:51:09.360
<v Speaker 5>it was, you know, I was talking to people before

0:51:09.520 --> 0:51:14.040
<v Speaker 5>the Hunter verdict came down, obviously because it just happened.

0:51:14.440 --> 0:51:16.960
<v Speaker 5>But the lesson there was exactly what you just said,

0:51:17.239 --> 0:51:21.240
<v Speaker 5>which is that the justice system is not captured because

0:51:21.520 --> 0:51:25.120
<v Speaker 5>the president's own son was just found guilty of felonies.

0:51:25.280 --> 0:51:28.880
<v Speaker 5>So the justice system itself is sort of standing standing

0:51:28.960 --> 0:51:32.600
<v Speaker 5>up for democracy. And that was the sort of split

0:51:32.680 --> 0:51:37.959
<v Speaker 5>headline that we had the day after Trump's hush money

0:51:38.040 --> 0:51:42.680
<v Speaker 5>verdict was the justice system worked, and it's been really

0:51:42.719 --> 0:51:46.440
<v Speaker 5>harmed by all of the attacks. And the vast majority

0:51:46.440 --> 0:51:49.880
<v Speaker 5>of Republicans felt that that jury was corrupt and that

0:51:49.960 --> 0:51:53.680
<v Speaker 5>the case was wrongly decided, and that is due to

0:51:53.719 --> 0:51:58.040
<v Speaker 5>Donald Trump's very concerted effort to discredit that jury and

0:51:58.080 --> 0:52:00.800
<v Speaker 5>that entire proceeding. But if you look at the facts,

0:52:01.120 --> 0:52:03.480
<v Speaker 5>the justice system sort of did its job, and it

0:52:03.480 --> 0:52:06.200
<v Speaker 5>did its job again with Hunter Biden. And so it

0:52:06.360 --> 0:52:09.120
<v Speaker 5>takes a long time to have these verdicts come out,

0:52:09.239 --> 0:52:11.120
<v Speaker 5>but they do, and just to add one other thought,

0:52:11.120 --> 0:52:13.200
<v Speaker 5>which is when you talk about you know, that's why

0:52:13.320 --> 0:52:16.719
<v Speaker 5>Jack Smith brought his case in Florida, and he didn't

0:52:16.719 --> 0:52:19.319
<v Speaker 5>even want to fight over the venue. He just went

0:52:19.400 --> 0:52:23.040
<v Speaker 5>directly to Donald Trump's backyard to bring that case and.

0:52:23.239 --> 0:52:26.160
<v Speaker 1>It happened to work out very well for Donald Trump.

0:52:26.200 --> 0:52:31.600
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much, Sarah. Really appreciate you. Really great

0:52:31.600 --> 0:52:34.000
<v Speaker 1>to have you. Thank you, thank you for having me.

0:52:34.040 --> 0:52:38.600
<v Speaker 5>It was a pleasure a moment.

0:52:40.120 --> 0:52:43.360
<v Speaker 3>Jesse Cannon by John Fest I got to tell you,

0:52:43.400 --> 0:52:47.120
<v Speaker 3>after hearing these recordings of mister and Missus Alito, I

0:52:47.160 --> 0:52:48.120
<v Speaker 3>don't want to hang out.

0:52:47.960 --> 0:52:53.719
<v Speaker 1>With them, Alito, no go. There were some recordings of

0:52:53.800 --> 0:52:58.799
<v Speaker 1>Missus Alito, mister Alito and also Justice Roberts. They were

0:52:59.000 --> 0:53:02.520
<v Speaker 1>done by a woman who that's sort of her thing.

0:53:02.680 --> 0:53:07.640
<v Speaker 1>She does these tapes. I thought that they said pretty

0:53:07.680 --> 0:53:10.560
<v Speaker 1>much what we thought they would say, but you know,

0:53:10.600 --> 0:53:13.960
<v Speaker 1>it's still kind of striking. The woman who recorded her

0:53:13.960 --> 0:53:18.120
<v Speaker 1>as a woman called Lauren windsor Missus Alito. I want

0:53:18.160 --> 0:53:20.839
<v Speaker 1>a sacred Heart of Jesus flag because I have to

0:53:20.840 --> 0:53:24.480
<v Speaker 1>look across the lagoon at the Pride flag next month.

0:53:24.640 --> 0:53:28.360
<v Speaker 1>So Missus Alito, she wants to let her freak flag

0:53:28.560 --> 0:53:34.480
<v Speaker 1>fly and for that she is our moment of Buckray.

0:53:35.560 --> 0:53:38.920
<v Speaker 1>That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

0:53:38.960 --> 0:53:42.160
<v Speaker 1>every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to hear the best minds

0:53:42.160 --> 0:53:45.400
<v Speaker 1>in politics makes sense of all this chaos. If you

0:53:45.520 --> 0:53:48.200
<v Speaker 1>enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to a friend

0:53:48.239 --> 0:53:51.800
<v Speaker 1>and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks for listening.