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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics

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Speaker 1: where we discuss the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds, and it costs Steve Bannon more than

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Speaker 1: six hundred thousand dollars to ignore the January sixth Committee.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to our one hundredth episode. Today we have an

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Speaker 1: incredible show with the House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. He

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Speaker 1: stops byded talk to us about the debt ceiling and

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Speaker 1: banning congressional stock trading and a plethora of other issues.

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Speaker 1: Then we'll talk to squat Box's own Dan Nathan about

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Speaker 1: what's going on with our economy and the markets. But

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Speaker 1: first we have the host of the time of Monsters

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Speaker 1: the Nations. Get here. Welcome too, Fast Politics, your friend

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Speaker 1: and mine get here.

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Speaker 2: Good to be on.

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Speaker 1: I'm such a fan of yours. I want to ask

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Speaker 1: you about the most recent So Me Too movement, which

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Speaker 1: was I think supercharged by the election of Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: Has now got this Adult Survivor Act which was extremely important,

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Speaker 1: which just begot the first ever Trump being held responsible

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Speaker 1: by a jury for sexual assault to the tune of

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Speaker 1: five million dollars for his favorite activity, defamation. Well, it

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Speaker 1: turns out Trump may not be the only one.

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Speaker 3: Well, I would want Trump not to the only one.

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Speaker 3: I think a lot of men act like the way

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Speaker 3: Trump does. And if there's one good thing what he

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Speaker 3: can say about Trump, he's discredited the idea of male supremacy.

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Speaker 3: Hopefully there'll be many more targets.

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Speaker 1: Well, we've stumbled upon one target. You may remember him

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Speaker 1: from the bar At movie one. Rudolph Giuliani, America's mayor.

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Speaker 3: Wait are you saying that Rudy Giuliani did something bad?

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Speaker 3: Let me compose myself here. Second, Okay, I just he's

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Speaker 3: America's mayor. He's like Time magazines Man of the Year

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Speaker 3: two thousand and one.

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Speaker 1: Oh Jesus Christ. I mean you read that filing. There

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Speaker 1: is not a single thing in that filing that, in

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Speaker 1: my mind seems basically I read it and thought, oh,

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Speaker 1: that sounds about right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no, absolutely, And the accuser in this case also

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Speaker 3: has apparently tapes.

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Speaker 1: Because I think there's a huge quantity of tapes, a huge.

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Speaker 2: Quanity of tapes.

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Speaker 3: But also, like I mean, this is like in keeping

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Speaker 3: with a lot of stuff that we already know about Juliani.

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Speaker 3: As for my comment, you know, of pretending to be shocked,

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Speaker 3: including the movie. It's not like Giuliani. I mean again,

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Speaker 3: to give this guy a little bit of credit, he

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Speaker 3: hasn't quite hidden who he is.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, none of this is surprising.

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Speaker 3: I think the one thing that made made me raise

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Speaker 3: my eyebrow a little bit was not, like, you know,

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Speaker 3: his claim that he was like selling pardons and splitting

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Speaker 3: the loot with Trump.

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Speaker 1: For two million dollars a pardon, yes, continue.

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Speaker 3: That's a yeah, that's totally full acceptable. The racism and

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Speaker 3: anti semitism doesn't really surprise me. The sexual harassment doesn't

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Speaker 3: surprise me. The one thing is that he said like

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Speaker 3: about Passover, you know, like why can't the Jews get

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Speaker 3: over it? It wasn't even the first time the Red

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Speaker 3: Sea was parted, and that actually took me by surprise

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Speaker 3: because it makes those sense.

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Speaker 2: Can you explain this?

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Speaker 1: Yes, as a Jew, I'm happy to tell you that.

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Speaker 4: No.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the man is like drunk eighty percent of

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Speaker 1: the time. I mean, it's just all sort of baffling

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Speaker 1: to me that you know, he's gotten this far. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: it all of it is impressive.

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Speaker 2: Can we nail this down?

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Speaker 3: Because I'm pretty sure I'm going a little bit by

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Speaker 3: my memories of the Ten Commandments, but I have also

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Speaker 3: read the Book of Exodus. I just remember one party, like, like,

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Speaker 3: am I missing out on something? Is Juliani in on

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Speaker 3: information that I don't know about? Like how many times

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Speaker 3: did the Red Sea part?

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Speaker 1: I think it's fair to say that Juliani is never,

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Speaker 1: never in possession of information that you do not have.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Okay, good.

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Speaker 1: Okay, it's a fair assessment.

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Speaker 3: Okay, I'm glad to be clarified on that.

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Speaker 1: But I do think it's pretty interesting. I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: interesting in the fact that, like the fact that Rudy

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Speaker 1: Giuliani continues to make news and it's bad news for Trump.

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Speaker 3: It's bad news for Trump. Although I also have to

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Speaker 3: say it also raises to me, like the perennial question,

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Speaker 3: which is what is Merrik Garland doing? Because we have, like,

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Speaker 3: you know, this close associate of Trump who apparently has

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Speaker 3: been doing all sorts of crimes and there's like apparently

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Speaker 3: tapes all this. Why has there been such a slow

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Speaker 3: walk of the criminal investigation and why is it being

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Speaker 3: left up to private citizens and also to local DA's

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Speaker 3: to be the ones that are going after this?

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I mean like they're real questions because some of this

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Speaker 3: stuff is not just Giuliani stuff, it's also implicates Trump, right,

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Speaker 3: and I just have to wonder, like, I honestly think

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Speaker 3: Merrick Garland is like the weakest link of the binding admistery.

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Speaker 1: These things are rape. I'm sorry, but forced sexual conduct

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Speaker 1: is rape. There's not some like lesser rape for people

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Speaker 1: who are famous, right, I mean, of course, unlike you know,

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Speaker 1: Trump does say fortunately or unfortunately, no millions of years.

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Speaker 2: Millions of years, yeah.

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Speaker 1: Right, fortunately or unfortunately, but that is still actually sexual assault.

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Speaker 1: Fortunately or unfortunately. Look the pardon selling. I mean think

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Speaker 1: about like normal people go to jail for things like

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Speaker 1: floating this idea, you know, I mean the fact that

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Speaker 1: Trump sort of definitely gets a whole other level of

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Speaker 1: justice is kind of amazing.

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Speaker 3: No, it is amazing. And I think there's two sides

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Speaker 3: of this, which again, on the one hand, the people

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Speaker 3: who should be doing this the deferment of justice, see

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Speaker 3: to be slow walking everything. On the other hand, I

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Speaker 3: think that there's like a lot of your ordinary people

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Speaker 3: women who've been assaulted by Trump and Juliani, and also

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Speaker 3: like local prosecutors that are actually like taking the mantle

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Speaker 3: and are actually trying to bring kind of justice to this,

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Speaker 3: which is the more heightening fact, But.

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Speaker 1: It falls to the women again, just like with Egene Carrol, Right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, so far the only accountability we've seen, right,

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Speaker 1: the only time twenty five Trump accusers and only one

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Speaker 1: has ever been ordered a payment from a jury.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm hoping that there is a kind of

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Speaker 3: Overton window effect as people see that Trump is actually

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Speaker 3: vulnerable on these things, and hopefully Giuliani is also vulnerable

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Speaker 3: on these things, that more women will go forward. But

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Speaker 3: I think your point is exactly like, like, why is

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Speaker 3: this falling on the women to clean up this vest.

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Speaker 1: Right when you have these powerful departments in the United

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Speaker 1: States government that really could Another sort of interesting data

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Speaker 1: point that I want to talk about is the fact

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Speaker 1: that Juliani I was watching Lawrence's show last night. He's

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Speaker 1: a good friend of the podcast, and Lawrence had on

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Speaker 1: it a clip of Sacha Baron Cohen talking to Ben

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Speaker 1: Affleck about the Borat movie where famously Rudy went into

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Speaker 1: the room with the girl who he thought was sixteen, right,

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Speaker 1: and put his hands down his pants. Haha, hilarious, but

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Speaker 1: what I thought was really interesting about this was Sasha

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Speaker 1: bart Cohen said, actually I wanted to go in there

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Speaker 1: because I was really worried about this actress.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I know.

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Speaker 3: That's uh boy, that's really something. It's a legitimate worry.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think at the time people said Cohen

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Speaker 3: kind of set this up, but it was a very

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Speaker 3: disturbing scene of the movie. But in keeping with like,

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Speaker 3: you know, a lot of behavior that we've seen when Giuliani,

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Speaker 3: what's striking about the current filing is just how similar

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Speaker 3: it is to everything that we already know, including from Borat.

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Speaker 1: Right, No, I know, but it's it is weird to

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Speaker 1: use Borat as a news source and puts this in

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Speaker 1: a very trumpy kind of you know, as much as

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Speaker 1: I love Sasha Baron Cohen, it feels like Borat should

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Speaker 1: not be a news but it clearly is here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, yeah, But I mean it maybe raises again

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Speaker 3: these larger questions of who's holding accountability, because I got

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Speaker 3: to say, like, if you just followed Giuliani around and

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Speaker 3: look at his statements, and as you noted, took note

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Speaker 3: of the fact that eighty percent of the time he seemed,

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Speaker 3: you know, his brain was pickled out of its mind.

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Speaker 3: You could have had like a little bit more reporting,

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Speaker 3: like not just this comedy movie that did it. There

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Speaker 3: could have been more scrutiny of Giuliani all along from

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Speaker 3: the media. And I just see a lot of this,

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Speaker 3: as you know, there's a wider institutional failure that allowed

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Speaker 3: these guys to have impunity for so long. And I

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Speaker 3: mean that's why I mentioned the Time magazine Man of

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Speaker 3: the Year two thousand and one, because I got to say,

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Speaker 3: like I understood after nine to eleven, you know, there's

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Speaker 3: a desire for heroes.

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Speaker 2: He was Mayor of New York at the time.

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Speaker 3: But you know, like anyone who had followed Giuliani knew

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Speaker 3: that he was not the guy he was claiming to be,

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Speaker 3: and he was not the guy that the mainstream media.

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Speaker 3: We're not talking about Fox News, We're talking about Time

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Speaker 3: magazine and the New York Times we're building him out

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Speaker 3: to be. And a lot of his problems, the fact

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Speaker 3: that he associated himself with, you know, like criminal elements,

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Speaker 3: skirted the law, and often like made very racist statements.

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Speaker 3: A lot of that was known from the nineteen eighties

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Speaker 3: and nineteen nineties.

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Speaker 1: Known for years. Yeah, and his dubious connections with organized crime,

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Speaker 1: which the needle was never able to be threaded. But

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Speaker 1: it certainly seemed like this man would be a poor choice.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a good point. What I want to

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Speaker 1: ask you is, here we have a situation. Last week

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Speaker 1: the Republicans in Congress, known for their reasonableness and good

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Speaker 1: common sense, found that basically exonerated Biden from the fake

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Speaker 1: controversy of his son's possible laptop. And then we had

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Speaker 1: the Durham Report, which showed.

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Speaker 2: Well, what does it actacy show the weird thing because.

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Speaker 1: This is nothing he weighed at six and a half

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Speaker 1: million dollars in taxpayer Monday.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and and like it actually took much longer than

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Speaker 3: Themueller report to come out. And with Mueller, I mean,

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Speaker 3: one could argue that the results were disappointing, that he

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Speaker 3: didn't go deep enough. But actually, I mean, Mueller, to

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Speaker 3: his credit, you know, got a lot of indictments and

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Speaker 3: you know, did like actually document a pattern of obstruction

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Speaker 3: of justice which should have supported like an impeachment. I

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Speaker 3: got to say, yeah, with the Durham Report, this guy

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Speaker 3: was obviously on a fishing expedition.

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Speaker 2: He found like very little.

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Speaker 3: I mean, there was some FBI misconduct, which I don't

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Speaker 3: think should surprise anyone. But here's the my bottom line,

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Speaker 3: and this is like what I find like really puzzling here,

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Speaker 3: which is that the major FBI intervention in American politics

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Speaker 3: in our lifetime was the way that they helped Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump win the twenty sixteen election. Right of course, of course, Firstly,

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Speaker 3: since then, we've had the Republicans like treating the FBI

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Speaker 3: is an illegitimate organization because they would be the ones

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Speaker 3: charge with investigating Trump, and conversely the Democrats kind of

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Speaker 3: defending them, which I understand, you want to defend the

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Speaker 3: organization that's under unfair attack, but I mean it's still

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Speaker 3: such a propose outcome. I mean, I saw Josh Howley,

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Speaker 3: Senator from Missouri on Fox the other day saying, you know,

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Speaker 3: the FBI is a threat to American democracy, you know

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Speaker 3: needs to be reined in, which like I kind of

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Speaker 3: agree with, but I agree with with.

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Speaker 2: Because of what they did in twenty sixteen, but.

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Speaker 1: Not for the same reasons that stuff is incredible. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I do think they're very good at messaging. We all

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Speaker 1: know that there was a real problem there and that

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Speaker 1: the FBI during the Hillary I mean, you know that

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Speaker 1: comy letter, we know what it did, and yet somehow

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Speaker 1: the Republicans are mad at the FBI. I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: just incredible.

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Speaker 2: It's with unwrapping.

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Speaker 3: Why that is because their idea is AFV should always

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Speaker 3: be on their side, yes, right, and that should it

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Speaker 3: should be their tack dog. And like, historically, I think,

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Speaker 3: you know, there's really good reason to think that that's

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Speaker 3: what the FBI has been. Historically, that's been a very

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Speaker 3: conservative organization, certainly under j Edgar Hoover, but every single

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Speaker 3: FBI director has always been a Republican, even those nominated

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Speaker 3: by Democrats, and has often been used as a weapon

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Speaker 3: against the left, you know, including the civil rights movement,

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Speaker 3: the anti war movement. So the fact that underwent the

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Speaker 3: Durham Report and with Trump in general, that they're going

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Speaker 3: after the FBI is just because they cannotstand the idea

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Speaker 3: that this wonderful attack dog that they've used against liberals

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Speaker 3: and the left for like fifty years is now now

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Speaker 3: sometimes going to be used against them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely incredible stuff, and you know we live to

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Speaker 1: see it. So I want to ask you, the Republicans

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Speaker 1: in the House seem more unhinged than ever, I don't

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Speaker 1: know if you saw Marjorie Taylor Green has started impeachment

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Speaker 1: proceedings again, this time on whoever. Basically every hearing she

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Speaker 1: just starts impeachment proceedings.

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Speaker 3: That's right, Yeah, well, I mean the thing is like

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Speaker 3: she's the real kingmaker because their majority is so small,

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Speaker 3: and it's actually getting smaller. I mean, I think now

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Speaker 3: that Santos is illegal jeopardy. I don't know if they

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Speaker 3: could rely on him, which means that like the smaller

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Speaker 3: they get, as long as they have some bare majority,

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Speaker 3: the more power Marjorie Taylor Greenhouse like, that's just the dynamic.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it is truly incredible stuff that that

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Speaker 1: crew has taken over. I mean, let's just like game

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Speaker 1: this out for two minutes. So we're gonna see a

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Speaker 1: lot of horror. I mean, my guess is we're going

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Speaker 1: to see a summer of horse race journalism about Desanti's v. Trump, right,

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Speaker 1: even though we know Trump is going to be the nominee.

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Speaker 1: But they'll be like, I mean, I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you saw this weekend, there were there was bad weather,

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Speaker 1: so Trump decided not to hop on his plane to

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Speaker 1: go to Iowa, and so there were a couple stories

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Speaker 1: about how DeSantis took this as a win. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is just like these are machinations because everyone's a

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Speaker 1: little bored, right, Yeah, no.

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Speaker 3: No, absolutely. I mean the thing is Trump doesn't need

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Speaker 3: to go to Iowa. I mean, he gets all this

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Speaker 3: free media from CNN and other outlets. And we've constantly

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Speaker 3: seen DeSantis even before he's announced, he's like sinking in

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Speaker 3: the polls, and he's like the most recent ones I

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Speaker 3: saw in Kentucky where like Trump at seventy, DeSantis at

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Speaker 3: like fourteen or fifteen, and then like you know, people

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Speaker 3: like Pence at like four or five. So like DeSantis

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Speaker 3: is actually much closer to like the sort of you know,

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Speaker 3: people who are barely in the race than he is

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Speaker 3: to Trump. And yeah, I mean we've talked about this before,

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Speaker 3: but it's just the simple structural fact is that you

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Speaker 3: can't run as a trumpest candidate against Trump. It's like

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Speaker 3: if you have the choice between going to see Elvis

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Speaker 3: and going to see an Elvis cover band, Like, what

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Speaker 3: are you gonna pick?

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Speaker 1: I mean, come on, I also feel like it's like

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Speaker 1: you have a choice between seeing Elvis and see a

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Speaker 1: guy who pretends to be Elvis fights with Elvis and

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Speaker 1: hates Elvis.

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Speaker 3: That's right, that's right, And it's totally lacking in charisma

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Speaker 3: and has a weird laugh and can't sing.

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Speaker 1: Right the tone deaf Elvis. Yeah, and you're like, which

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Speaker 1: would you rather?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not just see Elvis versus a cover Elvis.

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Speaker 3: It's like Elvis versus a bad cover Elvis.

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Speaker 1: Right, all right, now, it is incredible stuff. And I

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Speaker 1: just am a little bit curious as to how you

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Speaker 1: think this goes. You think it's a summer of fake

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Speaker 1: horse racing and then Trump gets the nomination and he

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Speaker 1: runs against Biden.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so.

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Speaker 3: I think the only X factor, which I think is

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Speaker 3: what the Santa is actually working on, is that something

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Speaker 3: happens to Trump and he has to withdraw, like right,

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Speaker 3: you know, like the guy is getting up there, as

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Speaker 3: are many other American politicians and so like, you know,

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Speaker 3: I think Desantra's only plausible strategy is you know, like

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Speaker 3: that Trump keels over and dies, which is not actually

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Speaker 3: like I plausible, right.

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Speaker 1: Right, But it's not a great strategy.

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Speaker 3: No, no, no, it's basically you know, like being the

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Speaker 3: second Prince, right, like you know, like it's like being

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Speaker 3: Harry or whatever.

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Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, exactly, it's like being Harry but without

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Speaker 1: I mean, the thing I love is when Trump like

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Speaker 1: tries to appeal to DeSantis and he does things where

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Speaker 1: he's like, well, he's very young. And then my other

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Speaker 1: favorite thing is that there are a couple of people

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Speaker 1: who have decided that they're going to run again, and

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Speaker 1: they are like the only people less exciting than Mike Penance. Right,

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Speaker 1: So we have Chris Christy, the guy who got COVID

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Speaker 1: from Trump or from helping Trump prepare for the debates.

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Speaker 1: He's going to run as the anti Trump, right, because

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Speaker 1: nothing matters. And then you have his energy secretary, right,

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Speaker 1: who's also going to run.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no, no, I mean, like there's nobody running that has,

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Speaker 3: as far as I can see, any traction. And I

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Speaker 3: mean the sad thing is for them that Dessentis is

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Speaker 3: actually their best hope and he's kind of plailing. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I just don't see any alternative, you know, like unless

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Speaker 3: Trump steps on a banana peel, you know, I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I mean this just validates the sort of

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Speaker 3: success of Trump in taking over the party, but also

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Speaker 3: that no one else has quite Trump's magic and We

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Speaker 3: actually saw that in twenty twenty two, where a lot

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Speaker 3: of like, actually, you know, the people who tried to

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Speaker 3: be most like Trump did actually poorly. And I think

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Speaker 3: that's a's the you know, a sort of optimistic note

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Speaker 3: that we might want to make note of it. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it is very troubling that a figure like Trump can

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Speaker 3: leverage his celebrity to take over a political party. It's

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Speaker 3: also the case that like that doesn't seem like a

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Speaker 3: model that can be copied.

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Speaker 1: So true, Jeed here, I hope you'll come back.

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Speaker 3: You can't keep me away from you, Molly, you are

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Speaker 3: the best.

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Speaker 1: Hakeem Jeffreys is the House Minority Leader and represents New

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Speaker 1: York's eighth district. Welcome to Fast Politics and our one

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Speaker 1: hundredth episode we get to have you. Welcome, Congressman King Jeffries.

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Speaker 5: Well, great to be on Monley, particularly for your one

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Speaker 5: hundredth episode, and congratulations on that wonderful accomplishment.

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much. It's very exciting. So I want

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Speaker 1: to start by asking you about the dead ceiling. I'm sorry, Okay,

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Speaker 1: where are we? What's happening?

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Speaker 5: Well, our position continues to be clear, which is that

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Speaker 5: America should always pay its bills. The dead ceiling relates

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Speaker 5: to ensuring that debt's and expenses and bills that have

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Speaker 5: already been signed off on by the Congress should be

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Speaker 5: paid and paid on time, and any effort to try

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Speaker 5: to extract a ransom for doing what has been done

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Speaker 5: consistently for decades under Democratic presidents and Republican presidents is irresponsible.

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Speaker 5: But of course, in a given year, we always have

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Speaker 5: a conversation about what the budget should look like into

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Speaker 5: the future, what are the appropriate revenues and expenditures and

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Speaker 5: investments that should be made to protect and benefit the health,

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Speaker 5: the safety, and the economic wellbeing of the American people,

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Speaker 5: And we continue to insist that that should be the

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Speaker 5: appropriate process moving forward. The good news at the moment

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Speaker 5: is that President has clearly indicated default is off the table.

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Speaker 5: Senate Democrats, Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans have said it clearly,

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Speaker 5: the fault is off the table. House Democrats have of

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Speaker 5: course made that position clear. And so that's four out

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Speaker 5: of the five people who are sitting down to have

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Speaker 5: a discussion about resolving this issue. We now need the

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Speaker 5: extreme MAGA Republicans to recognize that they will be unable

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Speaker 5: to use the possibility of a default in this hostage

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Speaker 5: taking situation to extract the type of extreme cuts that

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Speaker 5: they know they otherwise can't achieve. And once they understand

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Speaker 5: that it is not happening, we can find a way

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Speaker 5: forward to get through this default crisis.

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Speaker 1: McCarthy has such a tiny, tiny sliver of the House

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Speaker 1: that he rules by a four or five vote majority.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious. It seems like a sort of more deft

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Speaker 1: leader might be better able to control the party. It

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Speaker 1: feels like they are controlling him.

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Speaker 5: I mean, that is the challenge. He's got a super

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Speaker 5: small majority with an exploding number of extremists, right wing

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Speaker 5: members of his conference who are intent on holding House Republicans,

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Speaker 5: the House of Representatives, the Congress, the President, and the

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Speaker 5: American people hostage. McCarthy is going to have to find

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Speaker 5: a way to partner with us in the effort to

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Speaker 5: achieve common ground and do the right thing by the

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Speaker 5: American people. And that will be a point that we

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Speaker 5: continue to make because the fault would be catastrophic. It

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Speaker 5: will result in a job chilling recession that will cost

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Speaker 5: us millions of good paying jobs all across the country

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Speaker 5: in blue states, in Purple states and in red states.

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Speaker 5: It will crash the stock market in a way where

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Speaker 5: millions of retirees are going to confront retirement and security

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Speaker 5: issues that will be devastating for people who are entering

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Speaker 5: into their golden years. That is going to impact people

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Speaker 5: in blue states, Purple states, and red states. This is

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Speaker 5: not a Democratic issue or Republican issue. It's an American problem,

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Speaker 5: and so I think we're going to have to continue

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Speaker 5: to make that clear to the American people, and that

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Speaker 5: public sentiment ultimately will help get this issue resolved in

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Speaker 5: a constructive fashion.

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Speaker 1: I just was doing an interview with someone who is

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Speaker 1: on the finance side, and he would say, you know,

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Speaker 1: works with markets, and he was saying, the Democrats have

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Speaker 1: not done enough messaging on just how insane it is

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Speaker 1: to default on the DAD.

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Speaker 5: I think when we will need to continue to make

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Speaker 5: that point. The American people, I think are just now

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Speaker 5: tuning in to the realities of what could potentially happen

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Speaker 5: and why we are in this situation, which is that

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Speaker 5: the extreme magna Republicans passed the default on the America Act,

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Speaker 5: which wasn't a budget. Joe Biden put a budget into

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Speaker 5: the public domain in March, he asked Republicans to produce

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Speaker 5: their budget so we could compare and contrast our priorities

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Speaker 5: with the American people. President Biden's budget will strengthen and

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Speaker 5: protect social security, continue to work to build an economy

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Speaker 5: from the middle out and the ground up. And it

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Speaker 5: also reduces the deficit by three trillion dollars over the

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Speaker 5: ten year budget window. And instead of the extreme magna

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Speaker 5: Republicans producing a budget, they produced a ransom note that

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Speaker 5: would effectively dramatically cut medicaid, particularly for children with disabilities

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Speaker 5: and older Americans. It would cut food and nutritional assistance

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Speaker 5: to people who are food insecure millions of people across

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Speaker 5: the country, cut education, cut public safety funding, cut veterans benefits,

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Speaker 5: cut housing, cut health care. And we have to raise

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Speaker 5: the stakes of awareness for the American people in terms

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Speaker 5: of the two choices that Republicans have given us here

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Speaker 5: in Washington, because both are inherently unreasonable. The Default on

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Speaker 5: America Act is unreasonable and default would be unreasonable.

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Speaker 1: And it basically cuts all quote unquote discretionary spending, which

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Speaker 1: is like food for poor kids, by about twenty percent.

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Speaker 5: Right, that's correct. What they've said is we want a

437
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Speaker 5: twenty two percent across the board cut and that's veterans

438
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 5: and everything that's right, veterans, medicaid, food and nutritional assistance

439
00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 5: for children. Snap, it would cut things like meal on wheels.

440
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 5: Who does this? What kind of people you know would

441
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 5: undermine the health, the safety, and the economic well being

442
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 5: a vulnerable American in such a way unless cruelty at

443
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:13,640
Speaker 5: the end of the day is.

444
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 1: The point, yes, which we know it is. I want

445
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:19,119
Speaker 1: to ask you, Biden gave a really good presser the

446
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 1: day that the Egene Carrol verdict came out about this default,

447
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: and I don't know if you saw it. There was

448
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 1: a journalist who was press who would say, well, you

449
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: know what about their budget? And he said, well, what's

450
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,360
Speaker 1: in their budget? And she couldn't answer it.

451
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 5: It's correct because they haven't produced a budget. They produced

452
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 5: a Default on America Act was basically said, top line,

453
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,440
Speaker 5: we just want to slash and burn everything twenty two

454
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 5: percent across the board in ways that they cannot justify publicly.

455
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 5: And so you know, we'll have our continuing discussions with

456
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,239
Speaker 5: the other side of the aisle. And I think the

457
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 5: closer we get to June first and we do have

458
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 5: to resolve this issue, and I believe June first is

459
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 5: a real date. The more the American people will pay

460
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 5: attention to what is actually happening in Washington and what

461
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 5: is being demanded by the extreme maga Republicans, and as

462
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 5: that awareness increases in terms of the dramatic, draconian, devastating

463
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 5: nature of the cuts that Republicans are proposing in exchange

464
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 5: for avoiding a default and doing their constitutional responsibility to

465
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 5: protect the full faith and credit of the United States

466
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,719
Speaker 5: of America. And the American people understand that that is

467
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 5: the prisoner's dilemma, that is the hostage taking situation, I

468
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 5: believe they will swiftly and decisively reject the Republican position.

469
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 1: McCarthy has a pretty interesting leadership and he has a

470
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 1: bunch of members of Congress. I would like to talk

471
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 1: to you about George Santos, the gift that keeps giving

472
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 1: for Democrats. He's out on bail. He has maybe settled

473
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:03,439
Speaker 1: the criminal dryes in Brazil. If the situation were reversed

474
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 1: and you had a Democrat who was behaving this flagrant lay,

475
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 1: would you kick them out?

476
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 5: I think Democrats have a long track record of accountability

477
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 5: and making sure that members are held to a baseline

478
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 5: standard of decent behavior that should be applicable whether you're

479
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 5: a Democrat or a Republican in the House of Representatives.

480
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 5: George Santos is a serial fraudster. He was elected under

481
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:33,120
Speaker 5: false pretenses. His whole length story was a lie as

482
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:37,199
Speaker 5: presented to the people of the third Congressional District in

483
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 5: New York State. And the Republicans have refused to deal

484
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 5: with the Santos issue in part, perhaps because his very

485
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 5: presence is necessary for them to be able to govern

486
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 5: in an extreme way. In fact, it was George Santos

487
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 5: who provided the deciding vote for the Default on America

488
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:04,959
Speaker 5: to carry in the House of Representatives. He literally is

489
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 5: necessary for them to govern, and that probably explains why

490
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 5: they're not acting right now.

491
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 1: I want to ask you. You have a situation here

492
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,880
Speaker 1: where you have a bunch of Republicans who have won

493
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 1: in Biden districts, right. I mean, certainly that's true with Santos,

494
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 1: but that's true with other less extreme perhaps Republicans. Though

495
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 1: if they vote for the extreme policies, how much less

496
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 1: extreme are they? I want to ask you, do you

497
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:36,199
Speaker 1: see a world where any of those people have a

498
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 1: kind of come to Jesus moment and say like, we're

499
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:45,119
Speaker 1: gonna caucus with Democrats, because at least that could prevent

500
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 1: a default.

501
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 5: I think that will be an important moment in determining

502
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 5: whether these you know, so called more traditional Republicans who

503
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 5: often go on TV and talk like moderates, yeah, or

504
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 5: go back home in their districts throughout New York, California

505
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 5: and talk like moderates, but then consistently come to Washington,

506
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:10,120
Speaker 5: DC and vote with the extremists. And that's a level

507
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 5: of hypocrisy that has gone on for a long period

508
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:17,199
Speaker 5: of time amongst the so called traditional Republican members of

509
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 5: the House, eighteen of whom, as you pointed out, Molly,

510
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 5: are now in districts that President Biden won in twenty twenty.

511
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 5: And one would think that for reasons of self preservation,

512
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,199
Speaker 5: even going beyond just doing the right thing for the

513
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,160
Speaker 5: American people, that for reasons of self preservation, they would

514
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 5: understand they cannot allow us to default and detonate the economy,

515
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 5: which will hurt everyday Americans all across the country. And

516
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 5: we are certainly involved in a significant effort to make

517
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 5: sure that those Republicans are publicly held accountable for the

518
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 5: position that they've taken up until this moment, which is

519
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 5: to support the default on the mat as opposed to

520
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 5: supporting avoiding of default paying our bills in the manner

521
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 5: consistent that has been done on the Democratic presidents and

522
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 5: Republican president including three times under the Trump administration, three

523
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 5: times by Democrats without showmanship, gamesmanship, or partisanship.

524
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 1: One of the ethics anxieties and one of the few

525
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: sort of bipartisan moments we saw a little bit in

526
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 1: this House is this case against members trading stocks. I mean,

527
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 1: do you support that legislation and do you see a

528
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 1: world where it could get passed?

529
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 5: That's I absolutely support the legislation, the effort, it is

530
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 5: bipartisan in nature. I think I've had conversations with Speaker

531
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 5: McCarthy about finding a pathway to make sure that this

532
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 5: legislation is brought to the floor. It's the right thing

533
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 5: to do in terms of marching toward a fuller restoration

534
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 5: of public confidence that legislators and policy makers are making

535
00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 5: decisions solely based on the merits of the facts and

536
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 5: the issues that are in front of the Congress, as

537
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 5: opposed to perhaps having other financial opportuniary interests. At the

538
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 5: same time, I also think it is perhaps even more

539
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 5: important that the Supreme Court be held to account and

540
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 5: actually have some type of ethics code that currently doesn't exist,

541
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 5: unlike the Congress, unlike the executive branch, where we do

542
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 5: have codes of conduct and statutes that apply to our behavior,

543
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 5: and we can enhance that consistent with what you've asked about, Molly,

544
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 5: in terms of prohibiting individual stock trades, that's the right

545
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 5: thing to do, But the Supreme Court is a runaway

546
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 5: trade right now. It's extreme, it's reckless, as out of control,

547
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 5: and at a certain point, you know, the American people

548
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 5: will say, are you willfully engaging in supporting the efforts

549
00:30:56,840 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 5: of a justice like Clarence Thomas to conduct himself above

550
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 5: the law?

551
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to ask you about that, because it

552
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 1: does seem out of control, and they're quite emboldened. They've

553
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 1: become a sort of huge legislative change agent in a

554
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 1: way they were never intended to be. I feel like

555
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 1: there's not appetite for a bipartisan but there might be

556
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 1: some way to get the numbers. Do you agree? And

557
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 1: can you talk about that?

558
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 5: At least in the Senate? What we have seen is

559
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 5: some interest in seeking clarity by Senate Republicans even on

560
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 5: the current Supreme Court posture as it relates to a

561
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 5: code of conduct and its potential applicability moving forward. Democrats,

562
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 5: of course, have been far more aggressive, and we should

563
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 5: be in that regard, but given the divided government that

564
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 5: is in front of us right now, in order to

565
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 5: achieve something it would have to be bipartisan in nature. However,

566
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 5: I don't believe that we should do something cosmetic just

567
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 5: for the sake of claiming that bipartisan action has been taken.

568
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 5: If we do something relative to the Supreme Court, it

569
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 5: should be meaningful, because, as you've pointed out, Molly, this

570
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 5: is a Supreme Court that has engaged in huge overreach

571
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 5: undermining democracy and the freedom and justice. Of course, in

572
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 5: the context of reproductive freedom, we believe in a woman's

573
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 5: freedom to make our own reproductive healthcare decisions that should

574
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 5: be the law of the land, and they've undermined that

575
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 5: and imposed their own radical right wing ideology on the

576
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 5: American people. And so at a certain point, their credibility

577
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 5: as an entity, as a separate and coequal branch of

578
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 5: government is going to be eroded to the point where

579
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:39,239
Speaker 5: their decisions are not going to have the way that

580
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 5: a Supreme Court decision otherwise should have. And that's part

581
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 5: of the case that we continue to make publicly to

582
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 5: the Supreme Court and to a Chief Justice Roberts, that

583
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 5: you need to take some action to protect the legitimacy

584
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 5: and the credibility of the independent judiciary.

585
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 1: There's been a lot made of this idea that you

586
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 1: don't get along as well with the life flank of

587
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party. I mean, is there anything to that,

588
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 1: and can you just walk us through that a little bit.

589
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 5: Now, I've been proud throughout the duration of my time

590
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 5: in Congress up until this point to be a member

591
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 5: of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. I joined the CPC the

592
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 5: moment that I arrived in Congress. Have historically had one

593
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 5: of the more progressive voting records in the House of

594
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 5: Representatives and in the Democratic Caucus, you know, during my

595
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 5: previous five terms. But of course I have expressed support

596
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 5: for members of the House who I believe are doing

597
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 5: a good job, who from time to time have based

598
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 5: primary challenges from the left, and I just haven't been

599
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 5: bashful in that regard. Now, I did believe that as

600
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 5: chair the House Democratic Caucus. Part of my responsibility was

601
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 5: to be there for everyone, and I respect everyone tremendously,

602
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 5: you know, from Representative Occasio Cortes to Representative johns Gottheimer

603
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 5: in all points in between. I do believe that we

604
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 5: have to continue to govern in the way that is

605
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:09,320
Speaker 5: center left, that is enlightened, that is progressive, that makes

606
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 5: changes that advance the cause of social justice, economic justice,

607
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 5: and racial justice in America. That's been the journey that

608
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:19,279
Speaker 5: I've been on. But we are a big tent, and

609
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 5: that means progressive, that means New Dems, that means Blue Dogs,

610
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 5: and of course you know the Congression on Black Caucus,

611
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 5: Hispanic Caucus, Asian and Pacific Island of Caucus, Equality Caucus,

612
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,279
Speaker 5: Women's Caucus. That's who we are as House Democrats, where

613
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 5: everyone we do reflect the gorgeous mosaic the American people,

614
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 5: and I think we should embrace that and always try

615
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:44,359
Speaker 5: to find the highest common denominator in order to make

616
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 5: progress for everyday Americans.

617
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 1: Last question, what keeps you up at night?

618
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,399
Speaker 5: Although that ceiling showdown is what keeps me up at night,

619
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:55,720
Speaker 5: largely because you know, this is the one area where

620
00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:59,400
Speaker 5: Republicans or at least a handful of them have to

621
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 5: do something affirmative for the right thing to happen. In

622
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:07,399
Speaker 5: every other instance, House Democrats gay to stop bad things

623
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 5: from happening legislatively in the House or slow it down

624
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 5: if something leaves the House. Largely it'll be done on

625
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,799
Speaker 5: arrival and the Senate and Senate Democrats can kill it.

626
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 5: If for some reason something gets out of the House

627
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 5: and the Senate President Biden using his veto pen can

628
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 5: stop bad things from happening. This debt ceiling situation is

629
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:31,279
Speaker 5: the one area where either the House Republican leadership or

630
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 5: a handful of more traditional House Republicans have to do

631
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:39,440
Speaker 5: the right thing to stop a devastating default from recurring.

632
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:42,759
Speaker 5: And that's why it's so critical that we remain unified,

633
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 5: strong together principle, get through this moment and then march

634
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 5: toward twenty twenty four when brighter days are ahead.

635
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Congressman, Thank.

636
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:53,719
Speaker 2: You so much.

637
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 5: Molly really appreciates you.

638
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 2: In again.

639
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 5: Congratulations on one hundreds episode.

640
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:02,879
Speaker 1: Hi, it's Molly, and I am wildly excited that for

641
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 1: the first time, Fast Politics, the show you're listening to

642
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,800
Speaker 1: right now, is going to have merch for sale over

643
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 1: at shop dot Fastpoliticspod dot com. You can now buy shirts, hats, hoodies,

644
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 1: and toe bags with our incredible designs. We've heard your

645
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Speaker 1: cries to spread the word about our podcast and get

646
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 1: a tow bag with my adorable Leo the Rescue Puppy

647
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 1: on it, and now you can grab this merchandise only

648
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 1: at shop dot fastpoliticspod dot com. Thanks for your support.

649
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 1: Dan Nathan is a Squawkbox contributor and the host of

650
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 1: Okay Computer. Welcome to Fast Politics, Dan Nathan Molly.

651
00:36:57,480 --> 00:36:59,839
Speaker 6: It's great to be back on your one hundredth episode.

652
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:02,839
Speaker 1: Yes, it's very exciting. We had to have you back

653
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 1: on our one hundredth episode because it's one hundred and

654
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:09,359
Speaker 1: that is a lot. Though. I think we've actually done

655
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 1: like ten million episodes Jesse and I because we've been

656
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 1: doing this forever. But every day is a new adventure,

657
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 1: or at least every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. So let's

658
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 1: talk about this economy. I'm confused. Just give us like

659
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:24,359
Speaker 1: the top line here.

660
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 6: Yeah, so through the lens that I look at it

661
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 6: the way we pod about it on the Tapeway, I

662
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 6: talk about it on CBC's Fast Money. I mean I

663
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 6: look at it through the lens of the stock market.

664
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 6: I'm not an economist, right, and so I think about

665
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 6: what's happened over the last year, and you and I

666
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 6: have been talking a bit about this. I mean, we

667
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:44,240
Speaker 6: had these kind of push and pull of this rising

668
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 6: inflation that we had, you know, after all of this stimulus,

669
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 6: both monetary and fiscal, during the pandemic to keep our

670
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 6: economy afloat, and then all of a sudden, at some

671
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:56,360
Speaker 6: point in twenty twenty one, the powers that be decided

672
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,239
Speaker 6: that all of that stimulus and the inflation that it

673
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 6: caused has the potential to really do damage to the economy, right,

674
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 6: and so the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates very

675
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 6: aggressively in March of twenty twenty two. And so what

676
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 6: we had was the stock market reacting to that after

677
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 6: we had this gangbuster's economy because.

678
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 4: Of all the stimulus. And so here we are right now.

679
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 6: You know, we're on the precipice of this debt ceiling debate.

680
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 6: I know that you've been covering this a bit or

681
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 6: we're actually having the debate right now whether we trip the.

682
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 4: Debt ceiling or not.

683
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 6: This has tremendous economic implications, right, so through the lens

684
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 6: of the stock market, it's not bothered at all. The

685
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 6: stock market has just flatlined over the last month and

686
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 6: a half as we've had a lot of rhetoric back

687
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 6: and forth between the White House and the Republican.

688
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:46,360
Speaker 1: Because it's worried we should be worried about it.

689
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 6: And we have a recent example back in twenty eleven

690
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 6: where the Ratings Agency cut the US debt okay, and

691
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 6: so in the fear that we would default. And so

692
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 6: one of the reasons why we fear this default it

693
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 6: has the potential to of just push our economy into

694
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 6: a recession if the US government can't pay its bills

695
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:06,920
Speaker 6: and the cost of capital goes higher.

696
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:07,800
Speaker 4: The people.

697
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 6: There's plenty of individuals who work for the government who

698
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 6: won't get paid. There's companies that will hold back on

699
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 6: spending right and hiring, and you know Capex and all

700
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 6: the like. So there's huge implications for the economy. But

701
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:23,720
Speaker 6: I guess through the lens that I look at it,

702
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,320
Speaker 6: it's really weird right now because the stock market doesn't

703
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 6: seem to care.

704
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 1: So that is really weird. So let's just talk about

705
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 1: those unemployment numbers. Because the unemployment numbers have been impressive.

706
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:38,320
Speaker 1: They've sort of gone and changed the numbers after they happened.

707
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 1: Can you explain that phenomenon to us?

708
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 6: Yes, So we have these revisions, right. So, when you

709
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:45,080
Speaker 6: think about the way that the government agencies, you know,

710
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 6: tabulate a lot of this data, there's lots of fits

711
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 6: and starts with it, right, and there's there's definitely some

712
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:52,439
Speaker 6: smoothing out that needs to be done when the data

713
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 6: comes in after the fact, right, So they do these revisions.

714
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 6: So here we are, we have an unemployment rate at

715
00:39:57,120 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 6: three point four percent. That is a seventy year low.

716
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 6: You know, when we were heading into the pandemic, and

717
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 6: obviously no one saw that coming, we had unemployment at

718
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:07,480
Speaker 6: three and a half percent. Right now we're at three

719
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:11,000
Speaker 6: point four percent. And we saw this massive hiring binge

720
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 6: right from all of these huge tech platform companies in

721
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 6: the back half of twenty twenty into twenty twenty one.

722
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:19,400
Speaker 6: So even though they're starting to shed a lot of

723
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 6: those jobs, you know, because of a whole host of

724
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 6: different weird things as it relates to you know, immigration

725
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 6: and such, they're still demand for lots of jobs right here.

726
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 6: So when you think about inflation, you know, a lot

727
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,360
Speaker 6: of us have been focused on the price of eggs

728
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 6: or the price of gasoline at the pump, but wage

729
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 6: inflation is a huge and sticky part of the equation here.

730
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 6: So the fact that we have unemployment at these levels

731
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:45,840
Speaker 6: is one of the reasons why the Federal Reserve just

732
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 6: raised interest rates again at their meeting just a couple weeks.

733
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 1: Ago, but by lass, right, which sort of shows that

734
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 1: they may be slowing down right.

735
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 4: They're getting close to an end.

736
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 6: I think if you look at Fed fund futures, and

737
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 6: that's just this mechanism that prices how much the Fed

738
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:04,320
Speaker 6: is going to raise or lower interest rates. They're basically

739
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 6: suggesting at this June meeting that they're not going to

740
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 6: raise But the biggest point mollly in since March of

741
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 6: twenty twenty two, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates

742
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,439
Speaker 6: five percent. And that doesn't maybe five percent doesn't sound

743
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 6: like a big number in historical terms. It's the space

744
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 6: in which they have ever done that amount of raises.

745
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,080
Speaker 6: And then the issue is what is the lag on

746
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:28,320
Speaker 6: the economy, because usually I think there's lots of economists

747
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:30,280
Speaker 6: will say that the lag is like nine to twelve

748
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:33,120
Speaker 6: months where really starting to affect the economy, and that's

749
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 6: what we're starting to see in a bunch of the

750
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:39,399
Speaker 6: economic data that most economists, strategists, and investors track right now.

751
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 1: So the sweet spot is to crush inflation but not

752
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 1: get into a recession correct.

753
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:47,720
Speaker 6: And again, so what does that mean? We had inflation

754
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,919
Speaker 6: readings above nine percent, you know, in twenty twenty one

755
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 6: they've come down to just below five percent. So the

756
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:57,760
Speaker 6: Fed feels pretty decent, The White House feels pretty decent

757
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:00,399
Speaker 6: that the job that they set out to do they

758
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 6: are doing. But we don't know what the lag effect

759
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:05,799
Speaker 6: is on the economy. And you keep hearing about the

760
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:09,279
Speaker 6: fear of recession. Sometimes the fear of recession, whether it

761
00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 6: be by households or businesses, is actually enough to pull

762
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 6: back on spending, and then it becomes this kind of

763
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 6: self fulfilling prophecy.

764
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:19,439
Speaker 1: But also, you don't know if you're in recession until

765
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:20,319
Speaker 1: you're already in it.

766
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 6: Yeah, so the recession really means to con sect quarters

767
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 6: of negative growth right now. And you know, if we

768
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:27,879
Speaker 6: look at some of the readings for Q one, we

769
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 6: were barely up. Q two doesn't feel particularly great. You

770
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:33,839
Speaker 6: won't really know until after the fact. And that's why

771
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 6: you know, CNBC and on our pods, we track this

772
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 6: data week to week, month to month because we feel

773
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 6: like maybe it gives us an edge, to give us

774
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 6: a sense of whether or not we're going to be

775
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 6: in recession. But again, going back to the stock market,

776
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 6: which a lot of your listeners are really focused on,

777
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 6: that's kind of how they view the economy. You know,

778
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 6: the stock market is hanging in there. The S and

779
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 6: P five hundred, which is the major gauge of the

780
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 6: stock market, is up seven and a half percent. The

781
00:42:56,719 --> 00:43:00,760
Speaker 6: nasdac's up, you know, eighteen percent. People feel better about

782
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 6: their four to one ks because last year was just

783
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 6: really bad. The SMP was down twenty percent. So sometimes,

784
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 6: you know, the stock market has this way of just

785
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:12,400
Speaker 6: basically I don't know, tricking. I guess individuals who are

786
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:14,759
Speaker 6: most focused on it without really looking at what's going

787
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 6: on under the hood.

788
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:18,879
Speaker 1: Of the economy, right I mean, but ultimately, you know,

789
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter if the stock bump isn't real if

790
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 1: you can still make money on it, right, I mean,

791
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 1: just to speak in a completely vulgar term, I mean,

792
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 1: the fundamentals of the economy won't necessarily get to the

793
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 1: stock market in time to affect your trad you know

794
00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 1: what I'm saying, Like, well.

795
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,439
Speaker 6: Here's the thing, Molly, they are getting to the stock market.

796
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 6: So right now, I would tell you that the S

797
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:42,399
Speaker 6: and P five hundred and then Nasdaq are.

798
00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 4: A total illusion.

799
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:45,880
Speaker 6: If you look at the small caps, there's the Rustle

800
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 6: two thousand, It's made up of two thousand small cap stocks.

801
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 4: It is down on the year. And let me just

802
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:51,720
Speaker 4: tell you something.

803
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 6: Apple, Okay, Apple Computer, which everybody owns in their four

804
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 6: to one k because it's in almost every ETF and

805
00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:00,880
Speaker 6: every mutual fund you know, is up already three percent

806
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:02,400
Speaker 6: of the year. It has a market cap of two

807
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:04,719
Speaker 6: and a half trillion dollars. It is greater than that

808
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 6: of the Russell two thousand, which I said is down.

809
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:09,319
Speaker 4: So if you think about the effects of what.

810
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 6: Just went on where this regional banking crisis in March

811
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 6: where we had five banks go under, two of the

812
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 6: largest regional banks out there, the cost of credit, the

813
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:22,800
Speaker 6: access to credit is much harder, it's much more expensive.

814
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 6: That is first felt on small businesses in America, and

815
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 6: small businesses make up I think over fifty percent of

816
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 6: the hiring in America. So right now, we have, like

817
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:34,439
Speaker 6: I said, this illusion in the stock market where there's

818
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 6: five or six major stocks and you know what they are.

819
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:40,799
Speaker 6: They're Apple, They're Amazon, They're Google. They're all riding this

820
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 6: wave of AI, artificial intelligence. There's all this excitement around this.

821
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 6: I'm sure this is something that our main man, Matt Greenfeld,

822
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 6: is talking about at the dinner table almost every night.

823
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:54,760
Speaker 6: But it's consuming the private tech world and the public

824
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 6: tech world. And that is why, in my opinion, the

825
00:44:57,560 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 6: major stock market averages are up because.

826
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 1: Because of these big tech stocks.

827
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 4: Yes, exactly.

828
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:06,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, So let me ask you about this the regional

829
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:09,280
Speaker 1: banking crisis, because it's not as dramatic as it started

830
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:12,319
Speaker 1: out being with Silicon Valley Bank, but it seems like

831
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:14,600
Speaker 1: it's continued on. Talk to me about that.

832
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 4: Yeah.

833
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:18,480
Speaker 6: So, so Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank, these

834
00:45:18,480 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 6: were two very recognizable banks.

835
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 1: In the regional banks.

836
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 6: Yeah, but they were considered regional and you know, these

837
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 6: are two of the largest bank failures since Bear Stearns

838
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 6: went under in March of two thousand and eight. And

839
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:31,880
Speaker 6: obviously we had many other banks fail in two thousand

840
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 6: and eight and two thousand and nine, so a lot

841
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 6: of us who tracked the markets or have been in

842
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 6: the markets. You know, we have a little PTSD from

843
00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:40,879
Speaker 6: the Great Financial Crisis, of the global financial crisis, whatever

844
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:42,200
Speaker 6: you want to call it, going.

845
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 4: Back, you know, fifteen years or so.

846
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:46,200
Speaker 6: And so when you see banks fail like this, it

847
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 6: doesn't give confidence right to the sort of businesses or

848
00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:52,480
Speaker 6: individuals who rely on banks, right, So we had to

849
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 6: run on the bank deposits, and until the government took

850
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:59,439
Speaker 6: extraordinary measures to backstop those deposits, this would have kept

851
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:01,319
Speaker 6: on going. And so the fact of the matter is,

852
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:04,320
Speaker 6: since we had Silicon Valley Bank go under in mid March,

853
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:06,840
Speaker 6: we had First Republic. There's a handful of other banks

854
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,400
Speaker 6: that seem to be sort of teetering here. And so

855
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 6: I kind of feel like we're in the second or

856
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 6: third inning of this. I think that there's going to

857
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 6: be different phases. But you could have said the same

858
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:18,839
Speaker 6: thing in two thousand and eight, once JP Morgan was

859
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 6: forced to buy bear Stearns, that things were over. The

860
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 6: stock market rallied significantly in the two months after bear

861
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:28,280
Speaker 6: Stearns was sold basically for two dollars and then ultimately

862
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:30,719
Speaker 6: was ratchet up to ten dollars to JP Morgan it

863
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:34,439
Speaker 6: rallied fifteen percent, but then obviously ended up going down

864
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 6: precipitously over the next year or so. So to me,

865
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:40,480
Speaker 6: you know, like history is not a great lesson that

866
00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:43,000
Speaker 6: we're one and done with these failures here. So to me,

867
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:44,799
Speaker 6: I think we really want to keep an eye on

868
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 6: this and then really what does it mean for you know,

869
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:51,040
Speaker 6: local businesses, regional businesses that rely on the lending from

870
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 6: these sorts of institutions because big banks like JP Morgan

871
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 6: don't want to really deal with small banks. They just

872
00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 6: are not set up to do that, which is one

873
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 6: of the reasons why they did not swoop in and

874
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:01,440
Speaker 6: by Silicon Valley back.

875
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:05,759
Speaker 1: But these are all regulatory failures, right, I mean, these

876
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:09,520
Speaker 1: regional banks are not regulated in the same way that

877
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:13,120
Speaker 1: the larger banks are, so they've had loopholes and they've

878
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:16,800
Speaker 1: been able to invest their balance sheet in more risky stuff,

879
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:21,120
Speaker 1: stuff like crypto, and they've gotten you know, margin calls.

880
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:23,280
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not saying this is all related to crypto.

881
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 6: There was one bank that had a lot of exposure

882
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:29,360
Speaker 6: to crypto. They weren't even investing in risky assets, Molly.

883
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 6: They were invested in treasuries and the sorts of bonds

884
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 6: that should be money good, right when the way we

885
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:37,640
Speaker 6: say in our business, the problem is is that some

886
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:40,839
Speaker 6: of these banks made very bad decisions. Okay, so they

887
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:44,759
Speaker 6: basically were investing in long duration securities that we're having

888
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 6: marked to market losses, and they were not believing the

889
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:49,480
Speaker 6: FED that they were going to be as aggressive in

890
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:52,000
Speaker 6: their rate hikes. Right, so when the rates go up,

891
00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 6: the price of the bond goes down, and they own

892
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:56,400
Speaker 6: the bonds, and then when there was a run on

893
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:59,799
Speaker 6: their assets, they actually had to match up right those

894
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:03,239
Speaker 6: and the liabilities, and they suffered big losses. And if

895
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:05,560
Speaker 6: you have money at a bank, whether you're an individual,

896
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:07,879
Speaker 6: whether you're a business, and you fear that that bank

897
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 6: is going to go under, you're going to take it out.

898
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:11,640
Speaker 6: And they had to run on the bank and they

899
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:14,839
Speaker 6: suffered big losses. And therefore these banks were pretty much

900
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 6: deemed to be insolvent, which is one of the reasons

901
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 6: why the FDIIC, the Treasury, and the White House had

902
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:22,759
Speaker 6: to take these extraordinary measures to make sure that they

903
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 6: didn't fail and there wasn't going to be systemic ricks

904
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 6: to the larger banking system because that would have most

905
00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:30,800
Speaker 6: certainly put the economy in a recession.

906
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 1: We know the Republicans in the House would like to

907
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:38,040
Speaker 1: see this economy go into recession in the hopes that

908
00:48:38,080 --> 00:48:40,960
Speaker 1: they could win in twenty four Right, you could see

909
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:44,240
Speaker 1: that as attention here, we're about to hit this dead ceiling.

910
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:48,440
Speaker 1: This worked well for them in the previous negotiations, like

911
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:51,719
Speaker 1: they were able to really hurt Obama. I mean, do

912
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:52,919
Speaker 1: you think that's the plan here?

913
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:55,839
Speaker 6: Well, I don't think all Republicans would like to see

914
00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:58,320
Speaker 6: the economy tank, right. I think they're the small you know,

915
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 6: you know, the burn it all down faction that really

916
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:03,439
Speaker 6: has McCarthy's balls and advice right now.

917
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:07,960
Speaker 1: Right, And by the way, those people McCarthy needs in

918
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 1: order to get the numbers.

919
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:12,400
Speaker 6: Yeah, you're right, there's a one no confidence voter is

920
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 6: he's out of the speakership. So I think he's in

921
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 6: a really tight spot. I think is a very different

922
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:19,280
Speaker 6: situation than we had in twenty eleven.

923
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:21,760
Speaker 4: But I think at the end of the day, you know, even.

924
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 6: If Biden has to come up with some concessions on spending,

925
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:26,480
Speaker 6: and you know, I think they're going to do it.

926
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:28,640
Speaker 6: You know, there's an argument to be made that the

927
00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:31,319
Speaker 6: Biden administration, it might be the best thing for them

928
00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:34,719
Speaker 6: to actually have a recession now and come out of

929
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 6: it in a couple of quarters and have a whole

930
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:39,960
Speaker 6: heck of a lot of strength heading into the election

931
00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:42,320
Speaker 6: year is twenty twenty four. The last thing that I

932
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 6: would want to do if I was a policy advisor

933
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:47,439
Speaker 6: is have this thing kind of dribble into twenty twenty four,

934
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:49,479
Speaker 6: the election year, and then it's front and the center.

935
00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:51,360
Speaker 6: And the other thing I'll just say is that the

936
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:53,760
Speaker 6: Biden administration, in my opinion, and I am a supporter,

937
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:55,600
Speaker 6: and I think they've done on a lot of things

938
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:57,839
Speaker 6: a very good job. I think they've done a very

939
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:00,839
Speaker 6: poor job on messaging on the economy. We just talked

940
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:04,680
Speaker 6: about unemployment at seventy year lows at a time where

941
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 6: you know, this administration has enacted fiscal stimulus to keep

942
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 6: the economy afloat, to push into some initiatives that they

943
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 6: think are very important as it relates to climate change, which,

944
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:16,760
Speaker 6: by the way, the IRA is going to massively benefit

945
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:19,400
Speaker 6: many red states. That's where a lot of this funding

946
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:22,239
Speaker 6: is going. And I think they need to start dictating

947
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:24,880
Speaker 6: the terms on the economy that they want to speak

948
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:27,520
Speaker 6: about rather than letting the Republicans do that. They have

949
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 6: done that, and you know, they need to have better

950
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 6: ambassadors for the economy out there talking about what they're

951
00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:36,640
Speaker 6: doing and why their initiatives are important and really kind

952
00:50:36,640 --> 00:50:37,279
Speaker 6: of set the tone.

953
00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:38,120
Speaker 4: I don't think they've.

954
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 6: Done a good job setting the tone with this debt

955
00:50:40,120 --> 00:50:43,080
Speaker 6: ceiling negotiation, because again they just said, we're not going

956
00:50:43,120 --> 00:50:44,320
Speaker 6: to negotiate with terrorists.

957
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:45,200
Speaker 4: By the end of the day.

958
00:50:45,239 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 6: There needs to be some you know, I guess messaging

959
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 6: that makes the American people feel like if there is

960
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:53,799
Speaker 6: that low probability outcome that we do trip the debt

961
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 6: ceiling and we do default and the economy does take

962
00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 6: a dive, that is not on the shoulders.

963
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:01,000
Speaker 4: Of the president alone.

964
00:51:01,120 --> 00:51:04,239
Speaker 6: And let's say the current administration will be blamed, but

965
00:51:04,320 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 6: they need to share the blame and they need to

966
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 6: better set the stage for that if that is going

967
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:08,160
Speaker 6: to happen.

968
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:13,160
Speaker 1: They need to explain to their constituents why these people

969
00:51:13,239 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 1: are terrorists, right, I mean the fundamental explanation of the

970
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:21,040
Speaker 1: debt ceiling. This is money that was already decided to

971
00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:25,480
Speaker 1: be spent, and that you know, there's no place for

972
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:30,000
Speaker 1: negotiating now, because it's like negotiating a ten thousand dollars

973
00:51:30,040 --> 00:51:33,400
Speaker 1: bill with Amex right like you did it. It's not

974
00:51:33,600 --> 00:51:36,040
Speaker 1: the moment to be like, how about I pay you

975
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:39,120
Speaker 1: seven thousand and then we just call it a day.

976
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:41,920
Speaker 1: You know, you can't do that unless you're in bankruptcy.

977
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:45,360
Speaker 1: And I think that is really the thing that the

978
00:51:45,600 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 1: Biden administration has not explained. But I do want to

979
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:52,359
Speaker 1: continue on this road. It does seem to me, I mean,

980
00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:55,000
Speaker 1: from what we've read in reporting that the Biden administration

981
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:58,600
Speaker 1: is much more tapped into Congress than the Obama administration was.

982
00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:00,200
Speaker 4: Maybe I don't know.

983
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 6: I mean like I feel like Biden because he's going

984
00:52:03,600 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 6: to likely face a candidate again, you know, Donald Trump,

985
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:10,759
Speaker 6: that it seems like Donald Trump, you know, he'd just

986
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:13,880
Speaker 6: run over right, all of these kind of anti Trump

987
00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:16,359
Speaker 6: you know folks from twenty twenty and you know, post

988
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 6: a twenty sixteen election, and it really feels like once

989
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:22,439
Speaker 6: again it is firmly his party. And so I think

990
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 6: that at that CNN town hall meeting, my partner Guya

991
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 6: Dommi mentioned this on our pod on Friday, is like

992
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:31,440
Speaker 6: by Trump going out there and saying basically giving a

993
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:36,359
Speaker 6: permission structure for many Republicans in Congress to allow.

994
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:39,240
Speaker 4: For this debt ceiling, you know, to to basically.

995
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:42,239
Speaker 6: You know that that changed the dynamic here, and it

996
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:45,120
Speaker 6: really changed the dynamic I think for the Biden administration.

997
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:48,359
Speaker 6: So to me, I think that while the market right

998
00:52:48,400 --> 00:52:51,840
Speaker 6: now is not pricing a great likelihood of default, I

999
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:53,799
Speaker 6: think that that is going to be something that if

1000
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:56,320
Speaker 6: this meeting, you know, by the time folks are listening

1001
00:52:56,360 --> 00:52:58,640
Speaker 6: to this, you know, McCarthy will have already met with

1002
00:52:58,719 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 6: Biden again, I would not expect any substantive progress whatsoever.

1003
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:04,719
Speaker 6: This thing's going to go down to the wire, and

1004
00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:08,799
Speaker 6: the Treasury Secretary Yellen keeps reiterating this date of June

1005
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:11,160
Speaker 6: first here, and so all of a sudden, we're going

1006
00:53:11,239 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 6: to see probably some fireworks in the stock market. And

1007
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 6: to me, that's the sort of thing that might cause

1008
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:19,600
Speaker 6: some people to kind of raise their antennas who have

1009
00:53:19,680 --> 00:53:22,040
Speaker 6: not been really focused on this, who think the outcome

1010
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:23,120
Speaker 6: is going to be okay.

1011
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 1: They might freak out and turn the stock market. I mean,

1012
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:29,960
Speaker 1: I do I think it is. It's worth remembering that

1013
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:34,480
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty four election is still many, many months away,

1014
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:38,880
Speaker 1: though at least Jesse and I's heads are now firmly

1015
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:42,480
Speaker 1: planted in November twenty four. But I do it is

1016
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 1: worth remembering that we literally just had the midterms.

1017
00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:48,479
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean and again, and it wasn't a great

1018
00:53:48,600 --> 00:53:50,760
Speaker 6: result obviously for Republicans.

1019
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:51,920
Speaker 4: So like I mean, to.

1020
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 6: Me, I just think it goes back to like, if

1021
00:53:54,160 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 6: they really this is where the White House has to

1022
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:58,920
Speaker 6: do a really good job. Okay, so what is it

1023
00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:01,839
Speaker 6: exactly that mccar arthy. What what spending do they want

1024
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:04,000
Speaker 6: to cut? Where will it come from? Are they defunding

1025
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 6: the police? Are they cutting these energy initiative?

1026
00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:09,759
Speaker 1: Right? And we know they are. I mean, anyone who's

1027
00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:12,040
Speaker 1: read I mean their Times had really good reporting on

1028
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:16,880
Speaker 1: this that in fact, it's cutting non discretionary spending, which is,

1029
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:21,120
Speaker 1: you know, food for veterans by large numbers. I mean

1030
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:22,360
Speaker 1: shockingly large numbers.

1031
00:54:22,440 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 4: I Mean.

1032
00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:24,120
Speaker 1: The whole idea that you're going to come up with

1033
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:28,400
Speaker 1: budget about money you've already spent is just very Republican.

1034
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:29,640
Speaker 4: But here's an idea.

1035
00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 6: Okay, so for a couple of years, and you have

1036
00:54:32,400 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 6: all these people in your pods. Okay, Katie Porter in

1037
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:38,320
Speaker 6: her whiteboard, let's start whiteboarding it out. Let's start making

1038
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:40,840
Speaker 6: the case to the American people. I mean, you know

1039
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:44,239
Speaker 6: Dan Goldman surgically, you know the way he operated right

1040
00:54:44,320 --> 00:54:47,480
Speaker 6: on the impeachment. You know, Representative shift was amazing and

1041
00:54:47,560 --> 00:54:50,040
Speaker 6: all of these outcomes. Let's get these people out there,

1042
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:52,440
Speaker 6: Let's get them on the Sunday shows, Let's start them

1043
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:56,120
Speaker 6: doing small short videos. Let's do national campaigns about this.

1044
00:54:56,400 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 6: Where are these spending cuts we can turn I think

1045
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 6: public opinion in the favor of not negotiating with these terrorists,

1046
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:06,919
Speaker 6: because there's so many other scenarios. Once if you kind

1047
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:10,239
Speaker 6: of start doing this with McCarthy here, where does it end?

1048
00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:10,919
Speaker 4: You know what I mean?

1049
00:55:11,000 --> 00:55:13,120
Speaker 6: Like that, That's the one point I would make. So

1050
00:55:13,320 --> 00:55:15,160
Speaker 6: I think the Dems have to do a much better

1051
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:16,200
Speaker 6: job in the messaging here.

1052
00:55:16,480 --> 00:55:18,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, really interesting, Thank you, Dan Nathan.

1053
00:55:19,360 --> 00:55:21,960
Speaker 6: All Right, Molly, my pleasure. Congrats on one hundred.

1054
00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:29,600
Speaker 7: No moment full Jesse Cannon, Molly jung Fast. I was

1055
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:33,360
Speaker 7: watching some seaspence day and I saw the Karen of Congress.

1056
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:36,280
Speaker 7: She's got to talk to the manager about something.

1057
00:55:36,680 --> 00:55:40,160
Speaker 1: One of my favorite things about Marjorie Taylor Green is

1058
00:55:40,239 --> 00:55:44,879
Speaker 1: that she has won everything. You know, how they say

1059
00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:48,040
Speaker 1: when you have a hammer. Everything is a nail. Well,

1060
00:55:48,080 --> 00:55:52,319
Speaker 1: when you're Marjorie Taylor Green, everything is impeachment. And today

1061
00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:56,759
Speaker 1: she has decided she wants She has introduced articles of

1062
00:55:56,800 --> 00:56:00,759
Speaker 1: impeachment yet again, not for my Orcas, not for the

1063
00:56:00,880 --> 00:56:04,759
Speaker 1: Vice president or the president or the president, but instead

1064
00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:10,080
Speaker 1: for the very famous Matthew Graves. You wonder who Matthew

1065
00:56:10,120 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 1: Graves is. While he was appointed to be US Attorney

1066
00:56:13,760 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 1: for the District of Columbia on July twenty six, twenty

1067
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:23,359
Speaker 1: twenty one, and assumed office on November fifth, twenty twenty one,

1068
00:56:23,880 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 1: she's very mad at Graves. I'm going to just read

1069
00:56:26,560 --> 00:56:29,280
Speaker 1: from the press release because honestly, I find it hilarious.

1070
00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:34,880
Speaker 1: Graves is systematically criminalizing political dissent at the behest of

1071
00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:38,120
Speaker 1: his handlers in the White House. So a lot of words,

1072
00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:41,480
Speaker 1: but by focusing so much effort on the persecution of

1073
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:45,200
Speaker 1: political prisoners, I think she's talking about the January sixth riders,

1074
00:56:45,600 --> 00:56:50,799
Speaker 1: Graves has diminished the manpower needed to fight crime, not

1075
00:56:50,960 --> 00:56:53,799
Speaker 1: just in DC but all over the country. How that

1076
00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:57,799
Speaker 1: would work, I don't know. DOJ attorneys have been transferred

1077
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:02,520
Speaker 1: to DC just to help Graves wage his war against

1078
00:57:02,520 --> 00:57:06,680
Speaker 1: political opponents. And now, in a typical trumpy fashion, he

1079
00:57:06,760 --> 00:57:10,520
Speaker 1: calls out his wife, because God forbid anyone is not

1080
00:57:10,640 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 1: harassed with an interest of their lives his wife. And

1081
00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 1: then she lifts her name and talks about her career

1082
00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:21,120
Speaker 1: and makes a lot of false statements. And for that,

1083
00:57:22,680 --> 00:57:26,960
Speaker 1: Marjorie Taylor Green, is our moment of fuckery. That's it

1084
00:57:27,120 --> 00:57:31,080
Speaker 1: for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday,

1085
00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 1: and Friday to hear the best minds in politics makes

1086
00:57:34,080 --> 00:57:37,360
Speaker 1: sense of all this chaos. If you enjoyed what you've heard,

1087
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:40,680
Speaker 1: please send it to a friend and keep the conversation going.

1088
00:57:41,080 --> 00:57:42,760
Speaker 1: And again, thanks for listening.