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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

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Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

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Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

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Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

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Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

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Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

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Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

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Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have, Krystal. Indeed, we do, as you

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Speaker 1: guys know, the big January sixth committee hearings have commenced.

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Speaker 1: We will break down for you what happened last week

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Speaker 1: and what is expected for today as well as Saga

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Speaker 1: and I both have our takes on our sort of

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Speaker 1: macro view of the whole thing. Sager causing a lot

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Speaker 1: of trouble online. I'm sorry, Chrystal, I always and were

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Speaker 1: getting the blowback from it anyway. We'll get into all

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Speaker 1: of that. Also potentially a deal on guns. Chris Murphy,

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Speaker 1: who has been leading the bipartisan negotiations with ten Republicans,

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Speaker 1: so you know that's how many you need the Senate

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Speaker 1: to actually get something past. They have come up with

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Speaker 1: a framework where we will tell you what is in

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Speaker 1: that in what the likelihood of that actually becoming law is.

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Speaker 1: We also have some grave new numbers on inflation with

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve for meeting this week, very very dire

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Speaker 1: economic indicators there that we will get into. We've also

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Speaker 1: got sort of both sides of the coin in terms

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Speaker 1: of twenty twenty four, increasingly alarmed Democrats questioning whether Biden's

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Speaker 1: going to be too old and whether he is really

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Speaker 1: the best candidate to take on potentially Trump, and also

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Speaker 1: some indications on the Republican side of the aisle that

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Speaker 1: Trump is also not clearing the field and that especially

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Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis is considering taking a run at this thing

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Speaker 1: as well. Color me skeptical, but we will give you

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Speaker 1: those indicators as well. We've also got the very latest

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Speaker 1: from the whole wappo in disarray, both in terms of

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Speaker 1: Taylor Rents and that column she wrote that was filled

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Speaker 1: with lies, and then they had to put it on

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Speaker 1: editors note, and that editor's note was still not correct

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Speaker 1: their own media columnist taking aim at that column in

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Speaker 1: the Washington Post handling of it. Also, Felicia Samnez, who

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Speaker 1: was the reporter at the center of the whole Day

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Speaker 1: Weigel situation, has now officially been fired. So we will

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Speaker 1: tell you about all of that as well, But we

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Speaker 1: wanted to start with your pocketbook and the extraordinarily dire

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Speaker 1: numbers that came out the end of last week on inflation. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: most important issue in the country. There's just no way

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Speaker 1: around it. So we're filming this before the stock market opens.

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Speaker 1: But right now, all indications at the five hundred is

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Speaker 1: poised to drop at least by two point five percent,

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Speaker 1: possibly up to three point two percent, which the Wall

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Speaker 1: Street Journal says would officially put it into bear market territory.

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Speaker 1: So it doesn't I mean, look, these are all semantics,

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Speaker 1: you know, they have technical definitions to exactly twenty percent

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Speaker 1: down from the recent high. That's right, So twenty percent

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Speaker 1: down from a recent high. But look, even if it's

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Speaker 1: down seventeen, like, it's not great, and all of it

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Speaker 1: is spurred by the most recent inflation numbers which look

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Speaker 1: no way getting around it, complete and total disaster. Let's

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Speaker 1: put this up there on the screen, which is that

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Speaker 1: we now know that the year over year inflation is

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Speaker 1: now up to eight point six percent in May. That

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Speaker 1: is the highest in the United States since nineteen eighty one,

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Speaker 1: and the new post pandemic record. So that includes gas prices,

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Speaker 1: food prices, and shelter costs, which drove the majority of

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Speaker 1: the May increase, and there is no sign of a slowdown.

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Speaker 1: In May alone, inflation was still up by a whopping

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Speaker 1: one percent, and I think that driving into some of

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Speaker 1: the other major indicators that show you how inflation is

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Speaker 1: just nuking Americans pocketbuts put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 1: The next one, please, which just shows you Groceries are

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Speaker 1: up eleven point nine percent year over year. That's the

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Speaker 1: biggest increase in take home food since nineteen seventy nine.

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Speaker 1: Chicken is up seventeen point four percent. Some very interesting

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Speaker 1: stuff on the chicken supply chain. Restaurants up nine percent,

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Speaker 1: fuel oil one hundred and seven percent. So if you're

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Speaker 1: in a rural area, and you have to pay for

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Speaker 1: fuel oil based on contracts, you're getting absolutely nuked this winter.

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Speaker 1: Electricity is up twelve percent, that's the largest increase since

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Speaker 1: two thousand and six. Rent is up five point two.

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Speaker 1: I do want to say that is the national average.

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Speaker 1: From what I'm hearing, the urban averages can be up

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Speaker 1: to fifteen to twenty percent. So that is just the

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Speaker 1: national average in like po Dunk, wherever, where you know,

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Speaker 1: if you include where the largest renter areas are, it's

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Speaker 1: actually much much higher for the majority of the population. Now.

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Speaker 1: Airfare is actually up thirty seven point eight percent. That

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Speaker 1: again is a purely both pandemic demand driven and jet

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Speaker 1: fuel I mean jet fuel. If you think gas is expensive,

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Speaker 1: jet fuel is like even more expensive. And then finally,

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Speaker 1: and this is also extraordinarily troubling, is that services are

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Speaker 1: up by five point seven So the fact that the

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Speaker 1: service economy is already also jacking up prices just shows

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Speaker 1: you that inflation really is even at the most modest level,

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Speaker 1: like six percent, they're but in many, many critical areas

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Speaker 1: you're seeing double digit inflation. And the most critical areas

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Speaker 1: of life, Christal, I just want to piggyback on what

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Speaker 1: you're saying there about why the services number matters in particular,

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Speaker 1: because that shows you it's not just supply chain issues.

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Speaker 1: You know, the idea for a long time was, and

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Speaker 1: this is certainly part of the story, because the pandemic

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Speaker 1: disrupted supply chains anything that required inputs, consumer goods, cars,

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Speaker 1: all those sorts of things. Those were going up because

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Speaker 1: they're having trouble shipping the goods and you know, seamlessly

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Speaker 1: around the world because we've set up such a sort

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Speaker 1: of fragile supply chain. That is all still true, but

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Speaker 1: now you're seeing that inflation hit every single sector, including

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Speaker 1: services which don't require those global inputs. Yeah. Absolutely, So

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Speaker 1: you conclude all of that and we have a big

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Speaker 1: mess on our hands. What's the White House's response? President Biden?

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Speaker 1: He was actually at the Port of Los Angeles, which

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Speaker 1: is the kind of genesis of some of these issues.

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Speaker 1: Who do you think he's putting the blame on? Name

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Speaker 1: is putin. Let's take a lissup. Well, he's labored from

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Speaker 1: forehead to tip of his toe. He used to run

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Speaker 1: the laborers out of union. Look, folks, today, I'd like

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Speaker 1: to speak about my top economic priority, fighting inflation. I

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Speaker 1: understand Americans are anxious, and they're anxious is a good reason.

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Speaker 1: I was raising the household when the price of gasoline

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Speaker 1: rose precipitously. It was the discussion at the table. It

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Speaker 1: made a difference when food prices went up. But we've

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Speaker 1: never seen anything like Putin's tax on both food and gas. Well,

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Speaker 1: did you know, Crystal that Putin personally is taxing food

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Speaker 1: and gas. You know, it's funny. I've been seeing comments

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Speaker 1: like man Putin is raising rent process like Ames Iowa,

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Speaker 1: you know who knew the reach of the Russian powerful

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Speaker 1: All noos. Just be honest with people, I mean, just

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Speaker 1: be honest, which is we have a supply chain crisis. Look,

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Speaker 1: obviously we had crazy demand inflation as a result of

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Speaker 1: both stimulus but also just cooped up people going out

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Speaker 1: and then spending. We have the summer driving season, and

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Speaker 1: beyond that, beyond what went wrong, what are you going

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Speaker 1: to do about it? Like, really try and give a

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Speaker 1: plan to the American people, but they just have It

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Speaker 1: just mystifies me that they continue to think that this

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Speaker 1: is the one area, which is the area of the public,

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Speaker 1: which we have some Pollem will show later in the

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Speaker 1: show that they least blame inflation on the public knows

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Speaker 1: actually what's going on. Yeah, well, and there are all

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Speaker 1: these pieces out now that are like Biden is so

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Speaker 1: frustrated that, you know, they want to do everything they

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Speaker 1: can about inflation, but there's just not that much they

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Speaker 1: can do, and all the quoting all these economists like, ah,

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Speaker 1: what are you going to do? I mean, okay, let's

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Speaker 1: take the Putin price hike thing at face value, because

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Speaker 1: it is very silly to think that's all the entirety

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Speaker 1: of what's going on. But there's no doubt that that

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Speaker 1: is a piece of it, especially when it comes to

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Speaker 1: food prices and gas prices because of by the way

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Speaker 1: our own actions and deciding to embargo Russian oil. Okay, well,

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Speaker 1: it's not like we're totally hands off from that conflict

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Speaker 1: and we have nothing to do about it, and there's

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Speaker 1: nothing we can do about it. In fact, we could

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Speaker 1: be putting pressure on both sides to come to the

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Speaker 1: table and negotiate a compromise so that that war ends

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Speaker 1: and that Putin's price hike goes away. So even that

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Speaker 1: is extremely disingenuous, like, oh, it's out of our hands.

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Speaker 1: The war in Ukraine, we're shipping tens of billions of

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Speaker 1: dollars in a to Ukraine. We are deeply involved in

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Speaker 1: this thing at every single level. We could be putting

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Speaker 1: that pressure on, but were not so even on that front,

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Speaker 1: even if you take the Putin's price, heke thing at

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Speaker 1: face value, like there are things that we could do

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Speaker 1: even beyond that. Let's put this next piece up on

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Speaker 1: the screen here from Jeff Stein about who Americans blame

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Speaker 1: for inflation. And they're not wrong about this, by the way.

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Speaker 1: The number one place, the area they placed the blame

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Speaker 1: on is actually corporations trying to increase profits. That's not

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Speaker 1: one hundred percent of what's going on either, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's a lot, and that is an area where the

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Speaker 1: White House again could have a direct impact. And I

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Speaker 1: think it was Jeff who did the reporting about how

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Speaker 1: there or you know, there were some people in the

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Speaker 1: White House who were saying, listen, go out and go

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Speaker 1: after the corporate price gouging. Call them out. Use your

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Speaker 1: power as the presidency with executive action to take aim

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Speaker 1: at these corporations and the way that they're hiking profits

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Speaker 1: above and beyond their own increase in costs. And we

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Speaker 1: know that's the case because their profit margins went up

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Speaker 1: extraordinarily last year. But they didn't want to do that.

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Speaker 1: They were nervous about doing. They weren't sure that was

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Speaker 1: the right thing to do. So, you know, the obvious

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Speaker 1: things they could do that are in their hands, they

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Speaker 1: have taken off the table entirely, and unfortunately, Christy, you know,

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Speaker 1: I did that home monologue on this. A lot of

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Speaker 1: the corporate price gouging, they got most of what they

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Speaker 1: could already. And this is another issue with the Biden administration.

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Speaker 1: By not acting a year earlier, he actually could have

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Speaker 1: tamped down on the profit maximization that was happening in

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Speaker 1: the stock market in twenty twenty one. But already the

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Speaker 1: reason that stocks are down and the reason that corporations

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Speaker 1: can't hike prices even more is they've basically gone to

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Speaker 1: their full extent and now they're losing money. That's part

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Speaker 1: of the reason why the Dow is dropped. By the way,

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Speaker 1: if anybody wants a deal, go to Target. Target has

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Speaker 1: a disaster right now because I was way too much

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Speaker 1: inventory on its hand, and it's slashing its prices by

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Speaker 1: like forty percent. Might be good for you in the

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Speaker 1: short term, but Target stock is dramatically down, and it's

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Speaker 1: indicative of consumer prices. But the point that I'm making

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Speaker 1: is that Biden, by acting or not acting, or even

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Speaker 1: not even floating action until now, makes it so that

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Speaker 1: many of the things that were on the table to

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Speaker 1: stem some of the tithes of inflation when it was

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Speaker 1: three percent four percent are almost impossible whenever you're talking

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Speaker 1: about twelve percent. Here's the other issue. Is anybody really

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Speaker 1: going to give Joe Biden credit from dropping from twelve

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Speaker 1: to eight? I mean, eight is still a disaster. So

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Speaker 1: by not getting out ahead of it, he's screwed himself

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Speaker 1: politically and actually resigned us really all to pretty much

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Speaker 1: run away inflation. I think my scariest thing that I

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Speaker 1: saw this morning, which is from Bloomberg, which is that

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Speaker 1: this is a headline. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is

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Speaker 1: facing an increasingly grim calculus. He probably has to push

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Speaker 1: the economy into recession in order to regain control of prices. Look,

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Speaker 1: this is Biden's fault. I mean, to allow things to

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Speaker 1: get so bad and to have the political system essentially

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Speaker 1: a breakdown that now all we have left is the FED. Well,

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Speaker 1: the Fed has owned it's a blunt tool. You know,

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Speaker 1: it has one instrument they has always been the knowledge

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Speaker 1: they can push us into recession. That will certainly drive

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Speaker 1: demand down, and sure it'll take care of inflation. But

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Speaker 1: then we're gonna have unemployment to seven percent seven point five.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's a disaster. And it's not like

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Speaker 1: you know, even by pushing the economy into recession, let's

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Speaker 1: say that we do drive price demand of gasoline. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I mean now it's right now it's five dollars. What

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Speaker 1: are they going to push it to four fifty four?

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Speaker 1: That's still very high. I mean by not dealing with

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Speaker 1: the supply problems, which is the job of Congress and

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Speaker 1: of the president, they're truly I mean, we could have

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Speaker 1: its stagflation type scenario. I think we really are back

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Speaker 1: in the nineteen seventies. Yeah, and again, just one more

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Speaker 1: point on there are things that the Biden administration could do.

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Speaker 1: All right, he's already you know, war in Ukraine pushing

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Speaker 1: to end that. We didn't have to embargo Russia's oil.

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Speaker 1: But we made that choice. Biden made that choice. You

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Speaker 1: didn't make that choice. Biden made that choice. Okay, That's

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Speaker 1: that's one thing they've already flipped on their Saudi policies,

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Speaker 1: so they're now betting the need to MBS to get

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Speaker 1: try to convince OPAC to increase, yeah, to increase oil,

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Speaker 1: because Saudi oil so much more humane and so much yeah,

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Speaker 1: so much more humanitarian than Russian oil. All right, there's

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Speaker 1: that one. You know, it wouldn't fix the whole problem,

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Speaker 1: but you could do the Iranian nuclear deal and also

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Speaker 1: have you know, access to Iranian oil. But then you

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Speaker 1: could That's true all the Venezuelans that you also, So

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Speaker 1: it's not like there's nothing that you could do that's

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Speaker 1: on the table, but it is. Gas is probably one

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Speaker 1: of the more difficult things ultimately for them to deal with.

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Speaker 1: And if you look at the numbers, Biden's approval rating

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Speaker 1: goes slides down and down and down as the gas

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Speaker 1: price goes up and up and up. So you know,

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Speaker 1: as you hear pundits talking about all of the various

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Speaker 1: things that are going on in our politics, you would

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Speaker 1: be hard pressed to find a more direct indicator of

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Speaker 1: how Biden's doing than what the gas price ultimately is.

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Speaker 1: With regards to the Fed, the FED meets this week,

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Speaker 1: we will have an announcement later this week as to

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Speaker 1: what their next move will be. Prior to this report,

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Speaker 1: the expectation was that they would hike interest rates by

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Speaker 1: another half percent, and now there are a number of

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Speaker 1: analysts who are saying, because of this report, their expectation

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Speaker 1: is that we will have a point seventy five percent

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Speaker 1: rate increase. So that's part of why it's actually a

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Speaker 1: big part of why the markets are kind of in

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Speaker 1: free fall right now, is because they recognize that those

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Speaker 1: inflation numbers will push the Fed towards more aggressive action,

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Speaker 1: which I mean, that's what the whole point of that is,

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Speaker 1: to tighten the supply, to make money, you know, to

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Speaker 1: make it so that people have less money, are less

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Speaker 1: able to purchase thing, less able to take out loans,

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Speaker 1: to slow the economy, and to ultimately, I mean, it

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Speaker 1: is looking increasingly likely that it is going to be

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Speaker 1: impossible to have a soft landing and we are headed

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Speaker 1: to our recession. There's no soft landing. They're going to

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Speaker 1: have to destroy the housing market, and they're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to do something called demand destruction, which is basically raise

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Speaker 1: rates and make it so impossible for capital in order

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Speaker 1: to borrow that they can't have any investment, and I

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Speaker 1: honestly think that is the worst possible outcome because we're

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Speaker 1: going to destroy our housing market. And I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: that it didn't need to cool down, but capital expenditure

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Speaker 1: is going to go way down. What happens in the

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Speaker 1: middle of recession, people don't invest in anything. They just

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Speaker 1: start cutting costs. So we're going to be pushing businesses

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Speaker 1: back to the incentive of just in time delivery, just

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Speaker 1: at a moment where we shouldn't have just in time delivery.

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Speaker 1: We actually need to make it cheaper for corporations in

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Speaker 1: order to indulge in inventory, because part of the issue

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Speaker 1: that we all fell into in the pandemic was that

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Speaker 1: inventory became a nasty word having it on your books.

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Speaker 1: So corporations did just in time and then the supply

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Speaker 1: chain crisis hits and boom, we all get hit with

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Speaker 1: a massive price increase. So we're actually reverting away from

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Speaker 1: where we should be. We're going to be in a

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Speaker 1: much more precarious economy and ultimately consumers. You know, I

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Speaker 1: was just reading this more food at home cost as

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Speaker 1: in grocery store food is somehow higher than restaurant food.

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Speaker 1: Somebody needs to explain that to me, it's eleven percent

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Speaker 1: inflation for food at home and it's only seven percent

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Speaker 1: in a restaurant. I don't know what's going on. I

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Speaker 1: think the government should investigate that. But beyond that, you know,

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Speaker 1: I was reading some thirty five to forty percent of

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Speaker 1: customers are now engaging in different price and price sensitivity

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Speaker 1: for grocery stores. They're not shopping in the way that

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Speaker 1: they normally were. They're buying half gallons of milk instead

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Speaker 1: of gallons of milk. People are like pouring water into

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is this is nineteen thirty's Great Depression

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Speaker 1: level and this is like little kids serial. Oh here's

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Speaker 1: the other thing. Shrink flation is happening. Cereal boxes are

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Speaker 1: now seventeen percent less than what they were like two

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Speaker 1: years ago. So you're getting less cereal for the money

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Speaker 1: this Now you're having less milk to give to your kids.

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Speaker 1: It's a real like you know, that stuff leaves real

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Speaker 1: scars on families for a long night. Kids grow up

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Speaker 1: with that, you know, remembering how their parents had to

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Speaker 1: scrimp and save on this. It's not good. Yeah, in

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Speaker 1: the richest country. We talked about how since the expiration

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Speaker 1: of the child tax credit half of families. Half say

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Speaker 1: they're struggling to feed their families and feed their kids.

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Speaker 1: And it's part it's you know, a large part of

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Speaker 1: that is loss of the child tax credit, which you know,

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Speaker 1: the foolish calculation there was, Oh, Republicans will definitely join

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Speaker 1: us to reauthorize this, or it'll be a great issue

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Speaker 1: for us in the midterms, and none of that worked out.

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Speaker 1: But you know, families are really struggling because of its expiration.

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Speaker 1: And then the other part, obviously is prices going up,

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Speaker 1: and so the money that you do have is just

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Speaker 1: not going as far as it used to or anywhere

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Speaker 1: close to that. And as we were just saying, i mean,

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Speaker 1: the gas price piece is so extraordinarily difficult, and what

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Speaker 1: you're seeing is all of the things that make up

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Speaker 1: the largest percentage of working class people's budgets, gas, rent, food,

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Speaker 1: are some of the highest levels of inflation across those categories.

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Speaker 1: And it's just it's just brutal. I mean, there's no

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Speaker 1: other way to put it. Let's go ahead and put

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Speaker 1: the gas prices on the screen so you can see

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Speaker 1: hit five dollars mark. I mean, it really is. I'm

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Speaker 1: actually surprised that we aren't seeing more direct unrest from

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Speaker 1: five dollars a gallon gasoline. And I think it's just

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Speaker 1: so baked into people now that up, well, this is

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Speaker 1: the landscape, this is what we're facing. It shouldn't be.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you guys know I track this

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Speaker 1: very closely. So the average American consumer is going to

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Speaker 1: be spending somewhere like four hundred dollars a month just

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Speaker 1: on gas, four hundred dollars a month in outlays just

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Speaker 1: on gas, which is up over one hundred percent from

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Speaker 1: what they were spending about a year and a half ago.

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Speaker 1: So really consider just how much that is going to

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Speaker 1: impact the bottom line. California right now is it's six

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Speaker 1: dollars and forty three cents a gallon. Okay, there are

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Speaker 1: forty million people who live in California, that's twelve percent

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Speaker 1: of the US population. And we have multiple states now

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Speaker 1: that are pushing five dollars a gallon. You can see

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Speaker 1: there who are just watching. The West Coast is getting destroyed.

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Speaker 1: Oregon at five point fifty, Washington five point fifty, New

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Speaker 1: Mexico five point thirty, Nevada five sixty. Alaska and Hawaii

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Speaker 1: are both pushing five point fifty as well. Now there's

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Speaker 1: a state called Illinois, somebody may want to tell me

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Speaker 1: if it's politically important at five dollars and fifty cents

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Speaker 1: a gallon. Indiana pushing five dollars a gallon as well.

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Speaker 1: And you can see there are multiple states in the Midwest.

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Speaker 1: Michigan at five twenty, Ohio is pushing five dollars. Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: where they have some very important elections, is over five

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Speaker 1: dollars a gallon. New York is at five dollars a

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Speaker 1: gallon Massachusetts. So the Midwest. Cheapest gas in the country

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Speaker 1: remains in the state of Georgia. I still have not

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Speaker 1: been able to figure out exactly why, but kind of

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Speaker 1: interesting there, and the Sun Belt in the South, you know,

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Speaker 1: below five dollars, but still even in my own home

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Speaker 1: state Texas with a ton of oil refineries there at

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Speaker 1: four sixty six. So this is a national story. Everybody

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Speaker 1: in the country can feel the crunch that is happening

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Speaker 1: with the gas price, and it is just demolishing folks,

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Speaker 1: I mean to their credit. Actually, the Today Show over

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Speaker 1: at NBC News just went and interviewed normal people at

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Speaker 1: the gas pump and they're like, hey, like how is

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Speaker 1: this affecting your life. Let's take a listen to what

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Speaker 1: some of those people had to say. The average price

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Speaker 1: for a gallon of gas has now hit five dollars,

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Speaker 1: according to Triple A, the most expensive in history. It's

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Speaker 1: totally insane. I was actually dreading coming to the gas

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Speaker 1: station because I know it's gonna be one hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: oncet that pump stock markets down on the news that

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Speaker 1: inflation is up eight point six percent year over year,

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Speaker 1: worse than the previous month, now hitting the highest levels

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Speaker 1: in forty years. I think it's really strangling to people,

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Speaker 1: and Americans are feeling the squeeze at every turn. Even

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Speaker 1: in that report they talked to these are the guys.

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Speaker 1: I really feel for the owner operators of these truck rigs.

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Speaker 1: These guys have you know, they were already floating on

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Speaker 1: razor thin margins. And actually, you know, even right now

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Speaker 1: there's the diesel price is much higher. It's actually five

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Speaker 1: seventy a gallon, and diesel futures. I've explained before how

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Speaker 1: Middle distillits diesel and jet fuel and all of them

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Speaker 1: have been separating from gas in price was actually making

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Speaker 1: the supply chain worse because that stuff is baked into

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Speaker 1: your food, That stuff is baked into all of your

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Speaker 1: logistical costs. And I mean their margins are dead. I mean,

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Speaker 1: these guys are bare. I doubt they're even breaking even

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Speaker 1: at this point, or if they are, I mean, they're

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Speaker 1: just having to charge more and more and more, and

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Speaker 1: that's just contributing even more so to runaway inflation. So

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Speaker 1: gas and diesel are destroying a lot of the pocketbooks

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Speaker 1: of Americans. If you include food, people are substantially poorer

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Speaker 1: today than they were two years ago. I mean to

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Speaker 1: the tune of almost like sixteen or seventeen percent. Well,

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Speaker 1: and then we also wonder, why, oh why don't we

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Speaker 1: have enough truck drivers? Oh yeah, yeah, right, because they're

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Speaker 1: losing literally losing money, you know, and the contracts on

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Speaker 1: those a lot of for those a lot of those

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Speaker 1: owner operators extremely exploitative to start with, and then you

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Speaker 1: add in the gas crunch. It's just completely intolerable. I

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Speaker 1: don't know how we get out of this one. Like

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Speaker 1: you said, I'm honestly kind of prize. You know, California

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Speaker 1: is one I cannot imagine paying six dollars and fifty

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Speaker 1: cents a gallon and in the city of Los Angeles.

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Speaker 1: Some of those people are paying near seven, like I said,

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Speaker 1: Mendocino County, And there are counties in California where the

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Speaker 1: average price of gas is seven dollars, which is nuts. Wow.

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Speaker 1: I mean when you start to dig out, I think

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Speaker 1: it's Yeah, Mono County, California is it's seven dollars and

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Speaker 1: twenty cents a gallon. I mean up in the in

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Speaker 1: northern California like Humboldt and I'm not even gonna try

430
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 1: and say that, but some six dollars and seventy cents.

431
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 1: So look, you're pushing seven, you know, even seven eighty

432
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,640
Speaker 1: in some places like the word Alpine County, California, seven

433
00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 1: dollars and seventy nine a gallon. This this, like I said,

434
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 1: there's a lot of people there, and California in a

435
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:47,159
Speaker 1: lot of ways has been over five. It really is

436
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 1: the future. But also we're not seeing demand destruction in California.

437
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 1: People are still driving, they still have a lot of

438
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 1: stuff that they have to do. They've been cooped up

439
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,160
Speaker 1: there for two years. So there's just bashin yeah, eSPI area. Yeah,

440
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:00,880
Speaker 1: And then you couple them with you know a lot

441
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 1: of bosses that were like, get your asses back in

442
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,160
Speaker 1: the office for the white collar workers not helping things either,

443
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,439
Speaker 1: And yeah, I mean we are public transit in almost

444
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:12,680
Speaker 1: all of the country is complete shit, So people don't

445
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 1: have any other option. What else are you going to do?

446
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 1: You have no other choice. So it's a dire situation.

447
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 1: And we'll be watching closely what the Fed does this week,

448
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:24,120
Speaker 1: as everyone else will, because ultimately, in a lot of ways,

449
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 1: our fate is in their hands too, So everybody's stay tuned. Okay, guys,

450
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 1: a big announcement from Senator Chris Murphy on a potential

451
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:38,360
Speaker 1: bipartisan deal on UH to address the mass shooting epidemic

452
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 1: that we've been suffering in this country for a long time. Now,

453
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:43,159
Speaker 1: let's go ahead and put Chris Murphy's thread here up

454
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 1: on the screen. I'm gonna read through all of this

455
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 1: so you get all the details. He says, we have

456
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 1: a deal by partisan group of twenty Senators ten, D

457
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 1: and ten are announcing a breakthrough agreement on gun violence.

458
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,920
Speaker 1: So the first piece here is major funding to help

459
00:22:56,000 --> 00:23:00,159
Speaker 1: states pass and implement crisis intervention orders. Those are the

460
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 1: so called red flag laws. Billions in new funding for

461
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 1: mental health and school safety Republican priority there, including money

462
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 1: for the national buildout of community mental health clinics. Next piece,

463
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 1: and this one directly relates to guns. Close the quote

464
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 1: boyfriend loophole so that no domestic abuser, a spouse, or

465
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 1: a serious dating partner can buy a gun if they're

466
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 1: convicted of abuse against their partner. First ever federal law

467
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 1: against gun trafficking and straw purchasing should make a difference

468
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,640
Speaker 1: to stop the flow of legal guns into cities. Enhanced

469
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 1: background check This one is kind of a key part

470
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 1: for under twenty one gun buyers and a short pause

471
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 1: to conduct the check. Young buyers can get the gun

472
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 1: only after the enhanced check is completed, so they're not

473
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 1: lifting the age that you can buy the gun, but

474
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 1: they are instituting a more sort of intensive background check

475
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:56,159
Speaker 1: process for buyers under twenty one, and there will be

476
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 1: a pause there, so I guess that means you can't

477
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:02,120
Speaker 1: just like it's not the instantaneous background check that exists

478
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 1: now for those who are under twenty one. They also

479
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 1: mention clarification of the laws regarding who needs to register

480
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 1: as a licensed gun dealer to make sure all truly

481
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 1: commercial sellers are doing background checks. That's something they looked

482
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 1: at last time around with the Mansion to Me bill

483
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 1: as well. He closes by saying, well, this bill do

484
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 1: everything we need to end our nation's gun violence epidemic. No,

485
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 1: but it's real, meaningful progress. It breaks a thirty year logjam,

486
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: demonstrating Democrats and Republicans can work together in a way

487
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:32,639
Speaker 1: that truly slaves lives. The Republicans who are involved in this,

488
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 1: just so you know, the names are Cornin, Tillis, Blunt, Burr, Cassidy, Collins, Graham, Portman, Romney,

489
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 1: and Toomey. So those are the ten Republicans that have

490
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,199
Speaker 1: signed on. Obviously, that's a key number because if you

491
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 1: get the fifty Democrats, which we assume they'd all be

492
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 1: on board, plus the ten Republicans, you're able to break

493
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 1: the filibuster and actually get this thing through the Senate.

494
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:56,640
Speaker 1: Biden reacted. He issued a positive statement. He says, each

495
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 1: day that passes more children are killed in this country.

496
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 1: The sooner this comes to my the sooner I can

497
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 1: sign it, the sooner we can use these measures to

498
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 1: save lives. He's, you know, says some things about, look,

499
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 1: this doesn't go as far as I want, but at least,

500
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 1: it's an important step in the right direction. Also a

501
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 1: relatively positive statement from Mitch McConnell. Is somewhat noncommittal, but

502
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 1: generally positive from McConnell gun and put this next piece up.

503
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 1: He says he supports gun proposal negotiations and again reiterated

504
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 1: sort of his priorities there that it addresses key issues

505
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 1: like mental health, school safety, respects the Second Amendment, and

506
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 1: earns broad support in the Senate. So, I mean, what's

507
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:41,159
Speaker 1: being proposed here on guns is extremely limited. It's you know,

508
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 1: basically the enhanced background checks for those who are purchasing

509
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:48,199
Speaker 1: and are under the age of twenty one, closing the

510
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 1: so cool called boyfriend loophole, beefing up the straw purchasing laws,

511
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 1: which I do actually think is really significant. I talked

512
00:25:54,960 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 1: before about those numbers of how many of this all

513
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 1: number of stores that sell the overwhelming majority of guns

514
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 1: that are ultimately used in violent crimes. So that does

515
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: actually matter. Listen, I said before, Is this like everything

516
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,199
Speaker 1: that I would want it to be? No, of course not.

517
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 1: But I feel it's so important just to get something

518
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 1: done so the American people have some sense of like, oh,

519
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 1: we actually are able to react and enact legislation after

520
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,919
Speaker 1: something horrible happens where there's overwhelming public support in favor

521
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 1: of doing something. So from that perspective, I certainly support it.

522
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 1: There's still noo soga, a lot of question marks whether

523
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 1: it we'll actually get through. This is not the legislation

524
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 1: hasn't been drafted. This is a framework. And the other

525
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:43,920
Speaker 1: piece here is Republicans want the money for mental health

526
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 1: these community clinics to be offset by other budget cuts.

527
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:48,719
Speaker 1: Where will that come from? So that's a big question. Market. Well,

528
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 1: we've always have to play deficit fakery, but not whenever

529
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 1: we ship arms Ukraine, of course. But of course, yeah,

530
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: I just love It's totally different. We love Americans priorities

531
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 1: here of course. Look like I said, I mean, I've

532
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 1: voiced my own concerns about red flag laws. That being said,

533
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 1: it's not a terrible bill because what it does is

534
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 1: it provides funding to states if they want to pass

535
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 1: a red flag law. So it's not forcing a national

536
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 1: red flag law. It says that they will implement crisis

537
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 1: intervention orders and fund those centers if the states choose

538
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 1: to do so. So, look, you know, I'm generally a

539
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,879
Speaker 1: supporter of federalism. So if that's what they want to do,

540
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: then I think that's fine. You know, it's up to

541
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 1: the states like Connecticut, New York or others, or Florida

542
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 1: and how they want to have enforcement, and ultimately that

543
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 1: has to be litigated at the state level. The rest

544
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,679
Speaker 1: of it, I mean beyond the and that's if this

545
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 1: thing falls apart, it will almost certainly be on the

546
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,919
Speaker 1: red provisions because they actually write in the provision that

547
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 1: it has to be contingent with civil liberties. I looked

548
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,439
Speaker 1: into this a little bit. It's kind of wonky and

549
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 1: all over the place, which is that the standard is

550
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:51,199
Speaker 1: different state by state on different red flag laws. So

551
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 1: some have much stronger civil liberties due process due process

552
00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 1: like provisions within the state. I think Colorado is one.

553
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 1: But there's actually a much higher barrier to proof on

554
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,680
Speaker 1: like mental health commitment than there is on the red

555
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:08,919
Speaker 1: flag do process part in states like New Mexico. So anyway,

556
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 1: that is going to be a point of contendent. That's

557
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:12,199
Speaker 1: where the NRA always points to you, by the way,

558
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 1: whenever they come out against these things. I do actually

559
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 1: think that this one about the juvenile background checks, that

560
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 1: one's great because even though it doesn't raise the age

561
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 1: to twenty one, it makes it so that you're allowed

562
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 1: to look at juvenile records and have a more further

563
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 1: investigation for people who are buying under twenty one. Given

564
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 1: that we have these limited number of instances within Nicholas

565
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 1: cruises of the world, and you know, the guy who

566
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 1: shot up the Uvaldi school and they both had some

567
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 1: past instances brief whatever's with law enforcement, and we're known

568
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 1: having some sort of investigative period, you know, without also

569
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: infringing on people's rights to buy gun. Overall, I think

570
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 1: it's like not a terrible piece of legislation, like I said,

571
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 1: you know, as long as it leads it up to

572
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 1: the states to be able to do what they want.

573
00:28:57,520 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 1: And I actually do think it's going to pass Bristol.

574
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 1: I do be even though it is these ten Republicans,

575
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 1: it has some possibility to fall apart. The weakest link

576
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 1: in the chain is going to be John Cornyn given

577
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 1: that he's from the state of Texas and Texas not

578
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 1: support red flag law whatsoever, so he is probably the

579
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 1: most likely to fold there given political pressure. The rest

580
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 1: of them are either retiring or they're very much in

581
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 1: like kind of a you know, more centrist position, like

582
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 1: a Lindsay Graham or you know Bill Cassidy or even

583
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 1: a Tom Tillis in North Carolina. He comes from a

584
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 1: more conservative state. But the rest of them, actually, Susan

585
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 1: Collins could have some shake up their Maine is a

586
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 1: very pro gun state actually because more rural. So we'll see,

587
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,239
Speaker 1: like I said, but overall, I mean, I think that

588
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,719
Speaker 1: NRA and gun orgs will probably come out against it,

589
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 1: given the red flag provision, but I don't think they're

590
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 1: going to fight as hard give it. It doesn't ban anything,

591
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: so you know, is against literally everything, So I mean,

592
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 1: they're not a constructive partner in any of these talks

593
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 1: or discussions. I also, I'm in sure stid in seeing

594
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 1: the details of the mental health provision, because you know,

595
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 1: I do think that's extremely important people having access to

596
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: mental health resources. We know that mental health is a

597
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 1: massive and growing challenge in America because of a whole

598
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 1: host and range of issues, and the fact that we

599
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 1: don't have universal health care obviously makes it so you've

600
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,239
Speaker 1: got a lot of people who are completely disconnected from

601
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 1: the medical system altogether, who certainly don't have coverage for

602
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 1: any sort of mental health care, so expanding you know,

603
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 1: a network of community mental health clinics, and that could

604
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 1: be you know, so the details there matter. How much

605
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 1: money is put towards that, How significant will that be

606
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 1: in terms of getting people the help that they ultimately need.

607
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 1: So again, listen, there are a lot of other things

608
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 1: I would like to do. But if you can even

609
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 1: take a few positive steps forward to curb some of

610
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 1: the deaths from suicide, domestic abuse, homicides, and mass shootings,

611
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: if you can even curb them by a small percentage,

612
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 1: given how high the number here is America, in America,

613
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 1: I think that's I think that's worth engaging in and

614
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 1: worth taking that stuff forward. Let me read Matthew McConaughey's reaction,

615
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 1: the most McConaughey reaction of all time from his instagram.

616
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 1: Is it all right? All right? It's even better? It's

617
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 1: very poetic. What's the best change you can imagine? I

618
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 1: asked a senator the course of my thirty by Parson

619
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 1: meeting something, He replied, I laughed, he didn't. For the

620
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 1: first time in thirty years, something has happened. The senators

621
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 1: agreed on a Byparson framework. Something has been done in

622
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 1: effort to stop some of the drained individuals. With every

623
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 1: horrific act, abuse and hijack the Second Amendment, something has

624
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 1: moved that we can hope we can deliver on our

625
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 1: shared effort to make a loss with so many lives matter.

626
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 1: I do offer a firm handshake and a sincere thank

627
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 1: you to the members of both sides who came together

628
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: Camilla and I would like to specifically thank the Republican senators.

629
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 1: Let's recognize it. Today's announcement doesn't mean that we have

630
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 1: a solution, but it does support more responsible gun ownership.

631
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 1: Just keep living, McConaughey. It's longer, but it's written also

632
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 1: in like I don't know, it's not iambic penta, I

633
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 1: forget what it's even called. But it's written like in

634
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 1: center script, almost literally in pros like a poem. So

635
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:05,959
Speaker 1: go to his Instagram. It's on his instagration. I mean

636
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 1: that does kind of capture how I feel about it.

637
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 1: Just show the country that you're able to do something

638
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 1: in response to just unconscionable, horrific tragedy. That alone, I

639
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 1: gett at the bar. That bar is very very low,

640
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 1: but that alone, I think is worth taking the step

641
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 1: forward for so, I guess I have a little bit

642
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 1: more skepticism than you that ultimately it comes to pass,

643
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 1: just because of how many times I've been burned getting

644
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 1: my hopes up about legislation here in DC before. There

645
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 1: could always be some sort of flying the ointment that

646
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 1: dooms the whole thing. But this is a very positive

647
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: sign of rare bipartisan progress in Washington. Yeah, I mean,

648
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 1: I think it would be what it would be the

649
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 1: first gun legislation to pass since nineteen ninety eight, which

650
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 1: is pretty nuts, that's right, think about it. That's twenty

651
00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 1: more than twenty years. Well, there's been lots of lots

652
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 1: of movement in the other direction, especially at the state level,

653
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 1: you know, loosening gun restriction. So this would be the

654
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 1: first time that we're saying, all right, let's take a

655
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 1: step more towards making sure that these weapons are ending

656
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 1: up in the right hands. I mean, that's ultimately what

657
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 1: this is about. So this has at its core kind

658
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 1: of the principle it really matters who It's not so

659
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 1: much what the weapon is, but who'se hands it ends

660
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 1: up into. And I think that that is a I

661
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 1: think that's a wise approach Ultimately, good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday.

662
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 1: We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do

663
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 1: we have, Crysoul. Indeed, we do a lot going on

664
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 1: this week, as you know, the January sixth hearings continue.

665
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 1: There were some interesting nuggets there that there's something we've

666
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 1: actually been covering before about the way that Trump raised

667
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 1: money and completely fleeced his supporters. So we got some

668
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 1: more details there will break down for you. Also, massive

669
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 1: market crosh yesterday ended in Bear Territory. Lots of speculation

670
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: about what the Fed is going to do this week.

671
00:33:56,440 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 1: Not to mention, I mean crypto falling off a cliff,

672
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 1: the hashtag black Monday trending on Twitter. So it's hard

673
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 1: times out here for US folks. Not good, not good

674
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 1: for those who have invested in any sort of crypto asset.

675
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 1: We also have some big developments in Ukraine, some new

676
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:17,920
Speaker 1: indications that this is really pretty stunny. I mean, you

677
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 1: all know how much we're sending in terms of millions

678
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 1: of dollars worth of weapons and aids to the Ukrainians,

679
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 1: and it turns out we really have no idea what

680
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 1: they're up to. They're not giving us the full picture

681
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: of how things are going or what their plans are

682
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 1: or any of that. Apparently we're not really pressing them

683
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 1: for that. This all comes as there are new indications

684
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 1: that they are really struggling with Russia in the eastern

685
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 1: part of that state, so we'll tell you about that. Also,

686
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 1: a big day for the Amazon labor Union yesterday, as

687
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 1: Amazon is trying to pull their own little stop the

688
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:50,320
Speaker 1: steal situation and overturn those rightful election results. We also

689
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 1: have you knew this was going to happen, the most

690
00:34:54,800 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 1: cringe possible presidential candidate floated, floated by a supposed progressive

691
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 1: Liz Cheney for president. Hmm, yeah, so we've got that

692
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 1: for you as well. Also, very excited to talk to

693
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 1: James Lee this morning. You guys know, he's one of

694
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 1: our partners of Breaking Points. He's been doing some incredible

695
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 1: videos that I know you guys have really been enjoying.

696
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 1: So we're going to have him as a guest in

697
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,800
Speaker 1: the show to preview his very latest But we wanted

698
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 1: to start with the markets following off a cliff yesterday

699
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 1: and what this means going forward. Let's go ahead and

700
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:26,879
Speaker 1: put that CNBC tear sheet up on the screen. The

701
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 1: SMP five hundred tumbles nearly four percent to a new

702
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 1: low for the year, closes in bear market territory. Listen,

703
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 1: the last time we have seen a stock market collapse

704
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 1: like this, it was right before the COVID crash, when,

705
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 1: of course, you know, Congress acted and inject a lot

706
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 1: of money into consumers pockets, but even more overwhelmingly, the

707
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 1: Fed acted, injecting trillions into to backstop the stock and

708
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 1: the bond markets. Here are the details. We have the

709
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 1: SMP five hundred falling three point eight eight percent, bringing

710
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 1: its losses from its January record to more than twenty

711
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: one percent. That of course, means we are now in

712
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,719
Speaker 1: an official bear market. Some people apparently only count it

713
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 1: when it ends for the day at the bear market,

714
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:09,279
Speaker 1: so this is the first time we have been in

715
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 1: that territory. We have the Dow Jones dropping two point

716
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 1: seventy nine percent. We have the NASDAC tumbling four point

717
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 1: six eight percent. At one point during the trading day Saga,

718
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 1: every single stock in the S and P five hundred

719
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:29,319
Speaker 1: was down. Only five stocks in the benchmark closed the

720
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 1: day in the green. So that is what we're facing

721
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:34,560
Speaker 1: right now. It's really such a disaster. You think about

722
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 1: people's retirement portfolios or four oh one k's. I mean,

723
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 1: the most you know thing that people are invested in

724
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 1: are these index funds which they always tell you like, hey,

725
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 1: s and B five hundred returns fourteen percent on average. Well, yeah,

726
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 1: this is certainly true. You know, it's true for a while.

727
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 1: But you know a lot of people are looking at

728
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:54,280
Speaker 1: this and they're just watching their retirement savings just fade away. Remember,

729
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 1: we have an increasingly aged population, so this actually could

730
00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 1: increase the amount of time that they even have to

731
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 1: continue to work. Or honestly, what's even worse is they

732
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 1: could force early retirement. People say screw it, and they

733
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: tap into social Security at this you know, two thirds

734
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 1: benefit at an early time. It has all sorts of

735
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 1: screwy effects. Whenever these things start to happen. And what

736
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 1: is our great president saying about this big market crash,

737
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,839
Speaker 1: this drop, this pain that Americans are feeling, Well he's

738
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 1: telling you that none of it's actually real. Let's take

739
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 1: a listen. The job market is the strongest it's been

740
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 1: since World War Two, notwithstanding the inflation. We added another

741
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:33,720
Speaker 1: three hundred and ninety thousand jobs last month, eight million,

742
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:37,319
Speaker 1: seven hundred thousand new jobs since I took office, an

743
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 1: all time record, never that many jobs in that period

744
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 1: of time. Unemployment rate is near historic lows. Millions of

745
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 1: Americans are moving up to better jobs and better pay

746
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:53,319
Speaker 1: since I took office. Families are carrying less debt on

747
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 1: average in America. They have more savings than they've had.

748
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 1: And we're doing it all while cutting the federal deficit

749
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:06,399
Speaker 1: by one point seven trillion dollars this year and three

750
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty billion last. I don't know, they're still

751
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:13,759
Speaker 1: selling that talking me, what what are you smoking when

752
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 1: you think that that is a compelling sell? Yeah, you

753
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: know what. He's right. People are employed. That's great. Here's

754
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 1: the problem. Their wages went up by two percent inflation.

755
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 1: Depending on where you look at it and what the

756
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 1: people are most affected by, well that's like seventeen percent.

757
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 1: So your host, I mean, you're substantially poorer today than

758
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 1: you were two years ago. I did some back of

759
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 1: the envelope math yesterday, Crystal, and so get this. The

760
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:42,360
Speaker 1: average American nets twenty seven hundred dollars per month after taxes.

761
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 1: So at five dollars a gallon, the average American consumes

762
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 1: somewhere around two hundred and fifty dollars to three hundred

763
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 1: dollars worth of gas, depending on where you live. As

764
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:54,280
Speaker 1: of right now with the current driving standard, that means

765
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 1: just ten percent of after tax income is going to gas.

766
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,080
Speaker 1: Ten That used to be two to five percent, and

767
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 1: obviously that money has to come from somewhere. Then you

768
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:06,880
Speaker 1: include food and housing, both of which have double digit inflation.

769
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 1: So you are watching the slow erosion of all of

770
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:13,439
Speaker 1: the ability for people to have consumer spending. I don't

771
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:16,760
Speaker 1: know why the president cannot speak to that and continues

772
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:19,279
Speaker 1: to try and gaslight people. This is Obama two point zero.

773
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 1: I remember it so vividly. You know, twenty eleven, Obama's like,

774
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 1: the economy's great, we're coming out, we have the you know,

775
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 1: they had all these fake charts, just like Biden. And

776
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,839
Speaker 1: meanwhile people lost their homes and they were working two

777
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 1: jobs and they were underemployed. I mean, if anybody who

778
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 1: other than idiot like Mitt Romney had run against Obama

779
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:41,280
Speaker 1: and she's like, what was eminently beatable? I read George

780
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 1: Packer's book is called The Unwinding. It was actually written

781
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 1: in twenty thirteen, and it was a real precursor to

782
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 1: all of the problems that we have now. He specifically

783
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:52,319
Speaker 1: spends time all across the country like in Obama's America

784
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:54,640
Speaker 1: at the time, and it tells the same story. He's like, man,

785
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 1: a lot of blue collar people they're just getting they

786
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 1: have all this credit card debt, housing debt, even they

787
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 1: lost their home. They have no ability in order to

788
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,360
Speaker 1: climb out. A lot of them tapped into that social

789
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 1: security like I'm talking about previously, same exact situation, and

790
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 1: the president is gaslighting all of us. I mean, living

791
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 1: in parallel reality. Credit card debt has reached an all

792
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:16,280
Speaker 1: time high. Yeah, that is that is a flashing red

793
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 1: warning sign. And I mean just look at you. Ask

794
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:21,279
Speaker 1: people how things are going. They tell you it's not

795
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 1: going well. Country is on the wrong track. My economic

796
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:27,399
Speaker 1: situation is going backwards. Things feel worse now than they

797
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:32,320
Speaker 1: did before. People are not stupid, and so Democrats have

798
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 1: keep going back to this notion of like, oh, the

799
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:38,320
Speaker 1: media is just not really telling you how great the economy.

800
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 1: You don't really understand how good the economy is and

801
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 1: how much we've done for you. Not going to work,

802
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:46,719
Speaker 1: guys not going to work, and it just makes you

803
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:50,880
Speaker 1: seem because you are completely disconnected from the stress and

804
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 1: the pain that people are feeling right now. And you know,

805
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 1: with regards to the stock market, of course, you know,

806
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 1: it's a relatively small slice of America that really benefits

807
00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 1: from the stock market when it goes up. But these

808
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:03,240
Speaker 1: soorts of things, you know, bear market doesn't always proceed

809
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 1: a recession, but it oftentimes does. Like I just said,

810
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:10,239
Speaker 1: the last two that we had. One was before the

811
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 1: COVID crash, which ended up being brief because of all

812
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 1: of the trillions of dollars that the Fed and Congress

813
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:18,800
Speaker 1: injected into the economy. The other was before the housing crash.

814
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 1: That's the territory that we're looking at right now. And

815
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:24,839
Speaker 1: on the way down, you end up with this sort

816
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:28,919
Speaker 1: of like mutually reinforcing negative cycle where those people who

817
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:33,359
Speaker 1: do depend on or have significant retirement savings, they start

818
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 1: to get nervous, they start to pull back. Everybody starts

819
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 1: to pull back in terms of their spending, They start

820
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 1: to save more, have a lot less liquidity. You ad

821
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:42,840
Speaker 1: on top of that, of course, the inflation that is

822
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 1: already squeezing people and making it so that they have

823
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 1: less and less and less that they can spend just

824
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 1: in discretionary spending. You've got a very very dire picture,

825
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:55,279
Speaker 1: and you know those signs are being picked up by

826
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:57,759
Speaker 1: anyone who's really paying attention. The very latest that we

827
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 1: have this is from JP Morwen Stanley CEO James Gorman,

828
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 1: who now says there's fifty to fifty odds of a

829
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 1: recession ahead. We've had other bankers who are looking at

830
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 1: this and saying that it looks very dire as well.

831
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 1: You know, you also have, as we talked to you

832
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 1: about yesterday, the FED meeting this week, and previously the

833
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 1: expectation would be had been all right, we'll have another

834
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:26,440
Speaker 1: half a point interest rate increase, which is again significant

835
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 1: but not crazy. Now they're talking about okay, probably the

836
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 1: baseline is zero point seventy five, and some are even

837
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:39,800
Speaker 1: projecting we may have a full one hundred basis point

838
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:42,719
Speaker 1: FED hike. Go ahead and put this Bloomberg report up

839
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,440
Speaker 1: on the screen. Well, this is the JP Morgan Morning

840
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 1: Trading a CPI changed to the narrative recession as inflation

841
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 1: accelerates again. Go ahead and put the next piece up

842
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Pockets of Wall Street raising the possibility that

843
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 1: the federal Reserve could go to extreme lengths on Wedsday

844
00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 1: in an attempt to control the hottest US inflation in decades.

845
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 1: Consensus expectation still half a percentage point, but you have

846
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 1: two banks revising their calls for the potential of seventy

847
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 1: five basis points as well, and you do have some

848
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:13,439
Speaker 1: outliers who are saying they may go all the way

849
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 1: to one hundred basis points. Stephen Englander, global head of

850
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:19,720
Speaker 1: G ten FX Research at Standard Charter Bank. He says

851
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 1: fifty was the big round number six months ago. Meanwhile,

852
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: seventy five is a very middling type of hike, So

853
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:28,280
Speaker 1: the Fed might say, look, if we want to show commitment,

854
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 1: let's just do one hundred. So when you see the

855
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 1: market reacting in the way it is this week, this

856
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:37,360
Speaker 1: all comes on the heels of that dramatic inflation report

857
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:40,319
Speaker 1: we had last week and their expectations of what the

858
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:44,120
Speaker 1: FED is going to do to significantly tighten the economy

859
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:47,359
Speaker 1: and probably ultimately they're going to trigger a recession. I mean,

860
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:49,319
Speaker 1: it's just hard to see how they avoid that at

861
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 1: this point. And the problem with these interest rate increases SOGA,

862
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:54,879
Speaker 1: as you know, is it takes something like nine months

863
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 1: to a year to actually see the full effect of

864
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 1: what they're doing now. So when you see these inflation

865
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:02,839
Speaker 1: reports coming in, they're acting right now and they're making

866
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 1: these dramatic moves potentially a full point, well, you don't

867
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:08,719
Speaker 1: actually feel the impact of that till a year from

868
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 1: now to see what that actually did to the economy.

869
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:14,319
Speaker 1: That's why this is such a blunt tool. That's why

870
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 1: it's so difficult to gauge this appropriately and not go

871
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 1: too far and trigger a really, really painful recession. And

872
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 1: that's what we're facing down right now. And the other,

873
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 1: you know, kind of wildcard piece of this too is

874
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 1: it's not just the interest rate hikes. It's also what

875
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 1: they do with their balance sheet. As you guys know,

876
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:32,799
Speaker 1: because we've talked about a number of other times on

877
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 1: this show, the Fed, in order to backstop the stock

878
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 1: in the bond market they create, they bought a lot

879
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 1: of assets. They have a huge, unprecedented, huge balance sheet.

880
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:46,879
Speaker 1: They're allowing those assets to roll up at what pace

881
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:49,759
Speaker 1: they do that, Well, that's like adding on another maybe

882
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:52,040
Speaker 1: half a point interest rate hike on top of what

883
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 1: they're already doing. And there's very little precedent for how

884
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:57,879
Speaker 1: the markets actually respond to that, what that actually does

885
00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:01,759
Speaker 1: to the economy because this is really sort of une territory. Yeah, absolutely,

886
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:03,800
Speaker 1: I think people should realize. Remember when we were talking

887
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:05,879
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago about how there was this

888
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:08,360
Speaker 1: one FED governor who was saying, hey, maybe we should

889
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 1: hike it. He was only talking about a point seventy

890
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 1: five basis point bump, and people were like, wow, that

891
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 1: would be crazy, it would be really nudging the market

892
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 1: in a different direction. Well, now one hundred is on

893
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 1: the table. And now look, I know, basis points sounds mysterious.

894
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:25,120
Speaker 1: It's not a basis point is basically like, it's a percentage.

895
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 1: So one hundred basis points is one percent, so point

896
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 1: or seventy five basis points is point seven five. So remember, though,

897
00:45:32,480 --> 00:45:34,360
Speaker 1: just what is it? Didn't you tell me this just

898
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 1: a couple of interest increases in the mortgage rate A

899
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 1: loan accounts for double the price of your mortgage. So

900
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:44,360
Speaker 1: you know, this is a very real, very real effect

901
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:47,799
Speaker 1: whenever it comes to not only your mortgage loan, which

902
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:49,720
Speaker 1: is the vast majority of the the loans you know, outside

903
00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 1: of credit card that most Americans will experience, but they

904
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:53,840
Speaker 1: also mean car loans. I mean, if you take a

905
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 1: look at the car price right now, the financing rates

906
00:45:57,040 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 1: that people are getting used to be two or three percent,

907
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 1: not even four or five months ago. Now you're looking

908
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:04,200
Speaker 1: at like five percent if you have great credit, nine

909
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 1: to ten percent if you don't have it. So consider

910
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 1: then what that means for you and how much more

911
00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 1: you're going to be paying in a cash basis for

912
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 1: all of these new assets that you might have to

913
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 1: finance on top of existing credit card debt, which we

914
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:19,719
Speaker 1: already know is sky high and it already has ridiculous

915
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 1: interest rates. So to have one hundred percent but our

916
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 1: hundred basis point increase even on the table is insanity

917
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:31,759
Speaker 1: because it will almost certainly trigger a massive sell off

918
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:34,360
Speaker 1: on the Dow and on the S and P five hundred,

919
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 1: and like I said, it dramatically decreases the available capitalbal

920
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:41,960
Speaker 1: to these businesses, which means they can invest, which means

921
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 1: they have to cut costs in order to manain profitability

922
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:47,359
Speaker 1: and even try to keep their stock where it is.

923
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:49,799
Speaker 1: So all of this means, at the end of the day,

924
00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 1: less power for you, both in your wallet and in

925
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:57,319
Speaker 1: your ability to really have gainful opportunity and employment. You know,

926
00:46:57,360 --> 00:47:00,920
Speaker 1: this stuff bleeds through the economy like a viral, and unfortunately,

927
00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:03,640
Speaker 1: the real issue to me is it's not really going

928
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 1: to do anything except put us into recession. I was

929
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:10,319
Speaker 1: just reading this morning the complex market conditions which led

930
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:13,439
Speaker 1: to cheap gas over basically the last ten years. That's

931
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 1: never going to happen again. We were all basically being

932
00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:19,279
Speaker 1: subsidized by Wall Street traders who were pouring hundreds of

933
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 1: billions of dollars into these oil companies so they could

934
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 1: drill and drill and drill. Well, now they're like, they're

935
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 1: fed up, they're done. They want profit, so there's not

936
00:47:27,280 --> 00:47:29,040
Speaker 1: a lot you can do there. On top of that,

937
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 1: we have a massive supply crunch given what's happening with

938
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:35,240
Speaker 1: the Russian oil embargo by the Europeans. So the complex

939
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 1: market conditions that existed for cheap gas are now gone.

940
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 1: I was talking with Peter Zihon recently. He said something

941
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 1: which was really struck with me, which is that the

942
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 1: globalization of the last nineteen nineties have basically made it

943
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 1: for the last thirty years. That's why inflation was so low,

944
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 1: because we adjusted to just in time delivery. We stopped

945
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 1: having inventory, We made out so much more efficient economy,

946
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 1: but less resilient. So the higher efficiency meant that we

947
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:04,400
Speaker 1: had low inflation, but all of the supply side factors

948
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:08,759
Speaker 1: are disappearing overnight on top of an over financialization of

949
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 1: the economy, and that leads to where we are today.

950
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:13,879
Speaker 1: So it's a real tragedy. I don't see a way

951
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:15,480
Speaker 1: out of this for I don't know, five ten years.

952
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 1: I mean, it takes hundreds of billions dollars to crown.

953
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:21,040
Speaker 1: Here's the thing, because because we basically live in a

954
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 1: failed state where the president and converresse are unable or

955
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:26,799
Speaker 1: unwilling to act, and the FED is left as the

956
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 1: only thing that we're like, well, you guys, do what

957
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 1: you can do. That means either way you get screwed.

958
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:36,960
Speaker 1: I mean, if they hike interest rates to curb inflation

959
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:39,759
Speaker 1: and they spark a recession, you get screwed. If they

960
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:42,359
Speaker 1: don't do that and inflation continues to run rampant, you

961
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:46,960
Speaker 1: get screwed. I mean, it's just completely the whole thing is,

962
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:50,440
Speaker 1: it's a disaster. And the fed's policies up to this

963
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:52,759
Speaker 1: point have also helped to fuel that inflation. I mean,

964
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:55,799
Speaker 1: the reason we had all these asset bubbles to start with,

965
00:48:56,200 --> 00:48:58,520
Speaker 1: was because of the trillions that the FED injected into

966
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:01,360
Speaker 1: the economy. They helped to fuel this massive inequality that

967
00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:04,720
Speaker 1: we have as well. So, you know, since we don't

968
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 1: have any other mechanisms at our disposal, the only thing

969
00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:10,839
Speaker 1: the FED can do is make it so you have

970
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:14,840
Speaker 1: less money to spend, so that to curb demand from you.

971
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:17,560
Speaker 1: That's the only thing that they can really do to

972
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 1: deal with the situation. Dealing with the supply chain issues,

973
00:49:21,080 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 1: dealing with gasper they don't have in control over any

974
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 1: of that. All they can do is curb stomp demand.

975
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:30,960
Speaker 1: That's it. And so that's why this landscape is so

976
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 1: dire and why you know, I mean, this is something

977
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:36,239
Speaker 1: we've been looking at and predicting and worrying about for

978
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:38,400
Speaker 1: quite a while, but the moment has kind of arrived.

979
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 1: It's here. Yeah, it's very you know, it just shows

980
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 1: you that the supply side stuff that's on this is

981
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:45,600
Speaker 1: just not going to get dealt with. Instead, you know,

982
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:48,799
Speaker 1: policymakers are very likely to adopt a fiscal crunch at

983
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:50,640
Speaker 1: the same time that you have a major crunch, so

984
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 1: you're basically going to get squeezed from both ends. And unfortunately,

985
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:59,479
Speaker 1: I think we're headed in for very hard times. Let's

986
00:49:59,480 --> 00:50:02,320
Speaker 1: move on to the crypto part of this. Just basically,

987
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:05,760
Speaker 1: people are calling it black Monday as to what happened yesterday.

988
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:08,080
Speaker 1: Let's put this on the screen. Did a decent job

989
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 1: of just summarizing. This is from the Indian press. But

990
00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:14,840
Speaker 1: Bitcoin and ethereum crashing over seventy percent from their peaks,

991
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 1: with investors loving over two trillion dollars in eight months.

992
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 1: So the price of bitcoin, you know, even right now

993
00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:26,520
Speaker 1: is trading at a low that we haven't seen in

994
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:30,279
Speaker 1: a long time, twenty one thousand dollars. I believe that

995
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:33,680
Speaker 1: that is the lowest price since twenty and twenties, almost

996
00:50:33,719 --> 00:50:38,520
Speaker 1: two years of gains erased in those markets. Ethereum also

997
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 1: as well. You know, a Bitcoin obviously the original kind

998
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:44,839
Speaker 1: of cryptocurrency that absolutely took off, but Ethereum was one

999
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:46,840
Speaker 1: which has been used quite a bit in the NFT

1000
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:49,920
Speaker 1: marketplace and others kind of became a secondary asset and

1001
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 1: has much more ability in order to have faster transactions

1002
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 1: in these things that obviously also crashed. And if you

1003
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:59,320
Speaker 1: consider that, let's go to the next one, which we

1004
00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:04,919
Speaker 1: are seeing chaos in the crypto trading exchanges themselves. So Celsius,

1005
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 1: which is a Celsius which was one of the largest

1006
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 1: crypto trading networks, actually banned trading for a long time yesterday,

1007
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:20,440
Speaker 1: freezing withdraws as all of those assets began to plunge.

1008
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:23,920
Speaker 1: Here's what they said, quote due to extreme market conditions.

1009
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:27,640
Speaker 1: Today we are announcing Celsius is pausing all withdrawals, swap

1010
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:30,960
Speaker 1: and transfer between the accounts. Quote. We are taking this

1011
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 1: action to put Celsius in a better position to honor overtime.

1012
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 1: It's withdrawal obligations. So anytime that you have a bank

1013
00:51:37,360 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 1: or a quasi financial institution say you can't take out

1014
00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:42,480
Speaker 1: money and you can't do anything about it, people are

1015
00:51:42,480 --> 00:51:45,120
Speaker 1: obviously going to panic. And you know, Celsius definitely took

1016
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:48,000
Speaker 1: it on the change. It reminds me also of a filing.

1017
00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:50,480
Speaker 1: I believe it was an SEC filing by Coinbase, which

1018
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:52,880
Speaker 1: put out and they said, look, we're not ever gonna

1019
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:54,799
Speaker 1: We're not in a position right now where we have

1020
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:57,319
Speaker 1: to stop trading or we have to do anything, but

1021
00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 1: it is possible that one day, should market conditions arise,

1022
00:52:01,520 --> 00:52:03,400
Speaker 1: that you won't be able to withdraw your bitcoin. So

1023
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:05,719
Speaker 1: It's like, wait, hold lot of a second, what and

1024
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 1: that was buried you know in one of their sec filings.

1025
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:11,120
Speaker 1: This has always been you know, the I've always warned

1026
00:52:11,120 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 1: people whenever they get into this, I'm like, listen, there

1027
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:14,920
Speaker 1: ain't no fdi C that's come to save you for

1028
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 1: you know, in terms of one hundred thousand dollars or

1029
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 1: unless you if you have crypto, it is not ensured whatsoever.

1030
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:24,239
Speaker 1: You're basically putting your you're putting your faith in that

1031
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:28,880
Speaker 1: financial institution. And we've now had several instances, not only Celsius,

1032
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:31,799
Speaker 1: but we'll remember that stable coin story that we talked

1033
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:35,839
Speaker 1: about here Tara USD, which basically just stopped floating one

1034
00:52:35,840 --> 00:52:40,200
Speaker 1: to one to the US dollar. There's major, major problems

1035
00:52:40,200 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 1: that are happening. And like I said, you know, let's

1036
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:44,360
Speaker 1: put the final one up there, which is that they're

1037
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:48,000
Speaker 1: referring to this as Black Monday. I mean, look, the

1038
00:52:48,040 --> 00:52:50,359
Speaker 1: reason why it's going down. I think there's a lot

1039
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:53,040
Speaker 1: of cope that people are talking about. I think the

1040
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 1: basic fact is that bitcoin, you know, and look, I

1041
00:52:55,520 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 1: love bitcoin, but let's be honest, you're bitcoin people, which

1042
00:52:58,120 --> 00:53:00,360
Speaker 1: is that it's basically trading as an asset that tracks

1043
00:53:00,360 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 1: with S and P five hundred. Same with a lot

1044
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:05,880
Speaker 1: of these places, and with the ability and the crunching

1045
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:09,280
Speaker 1: cash in particular lack of liquidity, people are puling out

1046
00:53:09,480 --> 00:53:13,400
Speaker 1: of all assets, and that also includes bitcoin, ethereum and

1047
00:53:13,440 --> 00:53:16,360
Speaker 1: the crypto markets. So it's actually an interesting theory that

1048
00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:18,719
Speaker 1: I'd seen floated by a couple of friends of mine

1049
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:23,200
Speaker 1: before that loose monetary policy actually was juicing the crypto markets,

1050
00:53:23,239 --> 00:53:26,759
Speaker 1: which zero doubt about it, zero dot seems to be true. Yeah, no,

1051
00:53:26,880 --> 00:53:29,880
Speaker 1: there's there's absolutely zero doubt about that. I mean, ultimately,

1052
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:33,879
Speaker 1: crypto is not used very much at all for as

1053
00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:37,239
Speaker 1: like actual money mode of exchange. It's something bet on.

1054
00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:41,160
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a highly speculative asset, you know, with

1055
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:45,319
Speaker 1: nothing really hard backing it, and certainly no sort of

1056
00:53:45,360 --> 00:53:49,640
Speaker 1: government institutions like that FD I see backstopping your your

1057
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:53,319
Speaker 1: losses and preventing bank runs. I mean, that's the thing

1058
00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 1: with Celsius is this is just basically a bank run

1059
00:53:58,239 --> 00:54:01,880
Speaker 1: with no government protection. So there's all this language and

1060
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:04,319
Speaker 1: lingo around crypto like this is something totally new and

1061
00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:07,680
Speaker 1: totally different, and in some of these instances it's like

1062
00:54:08,040 --> 00:54:12,240
Speaker 1: nothing really new just you as the consumer are less protected,

1063
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:14,279
Speaker 1: Like that's the innovation. I mean, they have a quote

1064
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:17,480
Speaker 1: here actually from someone who's his name's Corey Clips and

1065
00:54:17,480 --> 00:54:20,200
Speaker 1: he's a CEO of a different of Swan bitcoin, so

1066
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 1: he's like a pro crypto guy. But with regard to

1067
00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:25,799
Speaker 1: Celsia specifically, he says, this was yet another bank run.

1068
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 1: You're not reinventing anything here. They were promoting their services

1069
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:30,960
Speaker 1: as a better savings account. In the end, you're just

1070
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:35,280
Speaker 1: another unsecured lender. So that's the reality, and a lot

1071
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:38,920
Speaker 1: of that sort of like you know, shaky underpinnings is

1072
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:41,879
Speaker 1: being exposed right now as you know, the markets fall,

1073
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:44,520
Speaker 1: and cryptos sort of leads the charge because of course

1074
00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:47,240
Speaker 1: when the markets drop, the very first thing to drop,

1075
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:50,320
Speaker 1: the furthest in the fastest, are the most speculative assets.

1076
00:54:50,400 --> 00:54:53,200
Speaker 1: That's crypto, that's NFTs. I also just want to one

1077
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:57,080
Speaker 1: other thing, the chief executive of Celsius, this is how

1078
00:54:57,120 --> 00:54:59,760
Speaker 1: disgusting some of these people are. This guy's a scum.

1079
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:05,680
Speaker 1: Hours before they suspended withdrawals, totally screwing over the people

1080
00:55:05,680 --> 00:55:09,240
Speaker 1: who had trusted them. He hit out at critics on Twitter,

1081
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:12,840
Speaker 1: denying users were having trouble with drawing funds and accusing

1082
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:17,440
Speaker 1: them of spreading FUD, a popular crypto acronym for fear, uncertainty,

1083
00:55:17,520 --> 00:55:22,760
Speaker 1: and doubt hours before they pulled the plug. That's how

1084
00:55:23,000 --> 00:55:27,279
Speaker 1: scummy and sleazy some of these actors ultimately are. How

1085
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:29,799
Speaker 1: they will directly lie to the people who have like

1086
00:55:29,920 --> 00:55:33,240
Speaker 1: trusted them and enriched them the most. And that's why

1087
00:55:33,320 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 1: all of this, you know, it does really upset me

1088
00:55:35,719 --> 00:55:37,319
Speaker 1: because I think there are a lot of people who

1089
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:40,759
Speaker 1: are who are going to be They're going to be

1090
00:55:40,760 --> 00:55:43,319
Speaker 1: beside themselves. I mean, who really believed in that, put

1091
00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:45,560
Speaker 1: their life savings into it, I mean really risked it

1092
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:47,560
Speaker 1: all thinking they were getting in on the new big thing.

1093
00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:51,280
Speaker 1: And now that you know, there's everybody expects a recession

1094
00:55:51,280 --> 00:55:53,040
Speaker 1: and you see the markets dropping and the writing is

1095
00:55:53,080 --> 00:55:55,800
Speaker 1: on the wall. But it was not that long ago

1096
00:55:56,120 --> 00:55:59,239
Speaker 1: that the sort of conventional wisdom was this mania of

1097
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:02,279
Speaker 1: the stock market only goes up. It will only go up,

1098
00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:04,719
Speaker 1: there's no risk you can only you know, no matter

1099
00:56:04,760 --> 00:56:06,359
Speaker 1: where you get in, it's just going to keep going

1100
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:08,640
Speaker 1: up and up and up. And crypto is this safe

1101
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:12,120
Speaker 1: hedge against inflation and all of these things total fairy tale.

1102
00:56:12,640 --> 00:56:15,080
Speaker 1: And that's What really discussed me the most here is

1103
00:56:15,120 --> 00:56:16,759
Speaker 1: the people who were involved in these like pump and

1104
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 1: dump schemes and just really took people for a ride

1105
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:23,359
Speaker 1: and in many instances totally destroyed their lives. NFT one

1106
00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:26,640
Speaker 1: is where I'm particularly because I'm not going to call

1107
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:28,960
Speaker 1: out anyone in particular, but there are a lot of

1108
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 1: people on YouTube and online who have been pushing younger

1109
00:56:33,719 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 1: men mostly in order to invest a lot of their

1110
00:56:36,040 --> 00:56:38,719
Speaker 1: life save or even take out loans, that is, in

1111
00:56:38,840 --> 00:56:41,440
Speaker 1: order to invest in NFTs. They're like, you're getting in

1112
00:56:41,480 --> 00:56:43,160
Speaker 1: on the next big and look, we all know you

1113
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 1: know people and all those guys. Yeah, they made one

1114
00:56:45,040 --> 00:56:47,640
Speaker 1: hundred million dollars, but a lot of these people got

1115
00:56:47,680 --> 00:56:50,680
Speaker 1: really left hold in the bag. And considering also that

1116
00:56:50,719 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 1: we just had that story a couple of weeks ago

1117
00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:56,200
Speaker 1: about the Open Sea head of product getting indicted for

1118
00:56:56,320 --> 00:56:59,000
Speaker 1: insider trading, there was a rife amount of fraud. Yes,

1119
00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:01,279
Speaker 1: that was you know pretty obviously. I think to a

1120
00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 1: lot of people within this, I do think that, you know,

1121
00:57:03,239 --> 00:57:05,560
Speaker 1: people who are in the crypto space and others have

1122
00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:08,880
Speaker 1: a duty in order to try and push back against this.

1123
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:11,680
Speaker 1: And unfortunately, you know, I watched I've been kind of

1124
00:57:11,719 --> 00:57:15,480
Speaker 1: in the space in twenty seventeen and I watched it. Really,

1125
00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:18,120
Speaker 1: it'll all get taken over by a lot of scammers,

1126
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:20,160
Speaker 1: you know, you were, oh, yeah, absolutely. I mean, if

1127
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:22,640
Speaker 1: you go back to the ethos of kind of the

1128
00:57:22,680 --> 00:57:25,520
Speaker 1: original bitcoiners, it really look, I know you may not agree,

1129
00:57:25,520 --> 00:57:27,480
Speaker 1: but it was very It was a utopian kind of

1130
00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:31,280
Speaker 1: ideal of like we're going to hedge against inflation. Yeah,

1131
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:33,440
Speaker 1: and it was like, look, we know the financial crisis,

1132
00:57:33,440 --> 00:57:35,800
Speaker 1: it shook our faith in the markets, a federal reserve

1133
00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:38,360
Speaker 1: and quantitative easy, We're going to have this asset which

1134
00:57:38,400 --> 00:57:40,720
Speaker 1: will allow free flow of money that the government can

1135
00:57:41,040 --> 00:57:43,440
Speaker 1: crack down on in some cases. And there was a

1136
00:57:43,440 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 1: lot of utopian ideals about like bitcoin nation and like

1137
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:50,760
Speaker 1: reimagining government. And then frankly, I think the Winklevy kind

1138
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:53,840
Speaker 1: of coming in and starting the Gemini Trading Exchange trying

1139
00:57:53,840 --> 00:57:56,480
Speaker 1: to start What they did is they tried to normalize

1140
00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:58,000
Speaker 1: it on Wall Street. So what they did is they

1141
00:57:58,000 --> 00:58:00,800
Speaker 1: came in, they started the Gemini Trading Exchange, and they

1142
00:58:00,920 --> 00:58:04,200
Speaker 1: kind of tried to start like a bitcoin ETF and

1143
00:58:04,280 --> 00:58:06,560
Speaker 1: try to get certified by the market and push financial

1144
00:58:06,560 --> 00:58:09,600
Speaker 1: institutions into Bitcoin, and then from there you saw the

1145
00:58:09,640 --> 00:58:13,160
Speaker 1: explosion of not just ethereum because the ethereum currency'd been

1146
00:58:13,160 --> 00:58:16,200
Speaker 1: around for a while, but building stuff on the ethereum platform.

1147
00:58:16,280 --> 00:58:18,840
Speaker 1: And from there you and I'm sorry for those who

1148
00:58:19,040 --> 00:58:21,800
Speaker 1: I'm getting a bit wonky, something called DeFi kind of

1149
00:58:21,800 --> 00:58:26,320
Speaker 1: came on the scene decentralized financial instruments and currencies. That's

1150
00:58:26,360 --> 00:58:29,080
Speaker 1: where we started seeing the US dollars and some of

1151
00:58:29,120 --> 00:58:31,640
Speaker 1: the scummiest kind of behavior because I would see people

1152
00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:33,920
Speaker 1: who are giving out, you know, basically like high interest

1153
00:58:33,960 --> 00:58:37,000
Speaker 1: loans on these things that have no imagine this, like

1154
00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 1: it's almost like mortgage back securities. You have a speculative

1155
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:42,040
Speaker 1: asset like bitcoin or ethereum, and then you take out

1156
00:58:42,080 --> 00:58:45,640
Speaker 1: like actual cash loans at a twenty percent interest on that. Well,

1157
00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:48,240
Speaker 1: you know, it works until it doesn't work. Right now,

1158
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:51,400
Speaker 1: That's really where we're at now. So I've seen in

1159
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:55,200
Speaker 1: the last five years an explosion very much moving away

1160
00:58:55,240 --> 00:58:57,680
Speaker 1: from the kind of screw the man ideals in the

1161
00:58:57,680 --> 00:58:59,960
Speaker 1: crypto space. Maybe it'll return to that. I don't know.

1162
00:59:00,080 --> 00:59:02,120
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I'd be happy if there'd have

1163
00:59:02,160 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 1: to be some like dramatic reform because now it's it's

1164
00:59:04,440 --> 00:59:06,440
Speaker 1: out at twenty twenty one. Here's the thing when you

1165
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:08,320
Speaker 1: don't have money, a lot of stuff just false to

1166
00:59:08,320 --> 00:59:10,680
Speaker 1: the wastes. I just saw a coinbase they just put

1167
00:59:10,720 --> 00:59:13,200
Speaker 1: out this morning, just came across the ware. They're going

1168
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:14,960
Speaker 1: to cut eighteen percent of their staff. So I mean

1169
00:59:14,960 --> 00:59:16,680
Speaker 1: that company just went public. Yeah, I mean to do

1170
00:59:16,680 --> 00:59:19,600
Speaker 1: a multi billion dollar valuation. I know that probably your

1171
00:59:19,600 --> 00:59:21,720
Speaker 1: impression of me people out there is that I'm just

1172
00:59:21,760 --> 00:59:24,160
Speaker 1: a crypto hater and always happened. That's not actually the case.

1173
00:59:24,200 --> 00:59:26,080
Speaker 1: Like I was open to it. Yeah, I was like

1174
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:29,480
Speaker 1: kind of crypto agnostic, and I do actually think what

1175
00:59:29,600 --> 00:59:33,880
Speaker 1: really what really turned me was the advent of NFTs,

1176
00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:36,720
Speaker 1: because then I was like, oh, this is just bullshit,

1177
00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 1: Like this is just bullshit. And that was kind of

1178
00:59:39,160 --> 00:59:44,680
Speaker 1: my window into seeing how the original promise of crypto,

1179
00:59:44,880 --> 00:59:47,840
Speaker 1: which again like the initial you know, manifesto, about what

1180
00:59:47,840 --> 00:59:49,600
Speaker 1: it was all going to be about it's cool. It

1181
00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:51,520
Speaker 1: wasn't about like this is going to be a new

1182
00:59:51,560 --> 00:59:53,880
Speaker 1: casino that we can all bet on and get you know,

1183
00:59:54,160 --> 00:59:56,520
Speaker 1: you know, and get yours. It was about this is

1184
00:59:56,520 --> 00:59:58,720
Speaker 1: going to be an alternative mode of exchange, that this

1185
00:59:58,880 --> 01:00:01,600
Speaker 1: was going to be like practical and pragmatic. It was

1186
01:00:01,640 --> 01:00:06,720
Speaker 1: actually going to ease transaction that just has not happened. Instead,

1187
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:09,360
Speaker 1: it has just become a casino, and it has of

1188
01:00:09,400 --> 01:00:13,760
Speaker 1: course attracted some of the like scummiest promoters who the

1189
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:16,960
Speaker 1: only they don't care about any sort of like idealistic values,

1190
01:00:17,000 --> 01:00:19,960
Speaker 1: whatever they say to sort of lure you in. They

1191
01:00:19,960 --> 01:00:22,560
Speaker 1: just care about getting theirs and they care about being

1192
01:00:22,640 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 1: you know, up higher on the pyramid scheme and fooling

1193
01:00:26,360 --> 01:00:31,760
Speaker 1: finding the next greater fool. So it really does, it

1194
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:34,520
Speaker 1: really does upset me because, like you said, it's a

1195
01:00:34,560 --> 01:00:37,000
Speaker 1: lot of young men who you know, they're going to

1196
01:00:37,080 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 1: their whole life is going to be set back if

1197
01:00:38,880 --> 01:00:42,160
Speaker 1: they invested significantly in this, if they bet their future

1198
01:00:42,200 --> 01:00:44,400
Speaker 1: on this. They thought this was going to be their

1199
01:00:44,440 --> 01:00:46,919
Speaker 1: way to be one of the players in the game

1200
01:00:46,920 --> 01:00:49,680
Speaker 1: instead of always getting played and always getting screwed, and

1201
01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:52,600
Speaker 1: instead they just ended up being another mark. It really,

1202
01:00:52,840 --> 01:00:55,600
Speaker 1: it really is sad. Hold fast, gentlemen, that's the lesson

1203
01:00:55,600 --> 01:00:59,200
Speaker 1: I've learned over several years. Don't sell it just yet. Okay,

1204
01:00:59,320 --> 01:01:02,920
Speaker 1: let's move on to Ukraine. Obviously a lot going on there, Crystal.

1205
01:01:02,960 --> 01:01:07,040
Speaker 1: You flagged this particular story yeah, so let's go and

1206
01:01:07,040 --> 01:01:09,840
Speaker 1: throw this up on the screen. US lacks a clear

1207
01:01:09,880 --> 01:01:14,120
Speaker 1: picture of Ukraine's war strategy, officials say. The subhad here

1208
01:01:14,200 --> 01:01:18,760
Speaker 1: is intelligence agencies know far more about Russia's military even

1209
01:01:18,800 --> 01:01:21,680
Speaker 1: as the United State ships billions of dollars in weapons

1210
01:01:21,760 --> 01:01:25,040
Speaker 1: to the Ukrainians. And this is not just like some

1211
01:01:25,240 --> 01:01:29,840
Speaker 1: random analyst's opinion. Avril Haynes, who's the DNI, the Director

1212
01:01:29,840 --> 01:01:33,120
Speaker 1: of National Intelligence, testified at a Senate hearing that quote

1213
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:35,640
Speaker 1: it was very hard to tell how much additional aid

1214
01:01:35,720 --> 01:01:38,640
Speaker 1: Ukraine could absorb. She went on to say, we have

1215
01:01:38,800 --> 01:01:42,360
Speaker 1: in fact more insight probably on the Russian side, than

1216
01:01:42,360 --> 01:01:44,840
Speaker 1: we do on the Ukrainian side. They go on to

1217
01:01:45,000 --> 01:01:47,760
Speaker 1: note in this article that, of course the United States,

1218
01:01:47,840 --> 01:01:51,080
Speaker 1: and we've covered this probably more here than almost anywhere else,

1219
01:01:51,440 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 1: has been providing regular real time intelligence updates to the

1220
01:01:55,600 --> 01:02:02,320
Speaker 1: Ukrainian Ukrainians, helping them to target incredibly significant individuals and

1221
01:02:02,680 --> 01:02:05,680
Speaker 1: assets like that warship that we talked about, and yet

1222
01:02:06,520 --> 01:02:10,840
Speaker 1: in high level conversations US military intelligence officials are not

1223
01:02:10,880 --> 01:02:13,800
Speaker 1: getting that reciprocity from the Ukrainians. Of course, since they've

1224
01:02:13,840 --> 01:02:17,520
Speaker 1: been quote unquote friend of ours, we didn't develop any

1225
01:02:17,560 --> 01:02:20,640
Speaker 1: sort of like intelligence capabilities to spy on them and

1226
01:02:20,720 --> 01:02:22,880
Speaker 1: figure out what they're doing. But we do, of course

1227
01:02:22,920 --> 01:02:26,800
Speaker 1: have the capability with the Russians. That's why we understand

1228
01:02:26,840 --> 01:02:29,040
Speaker 1: more about what the Russians are doing and what their

1229
01:02:29,080 --> 01:02:33,600
Speaker 1: losses are. So it really is an extraordinary situation. I mean.

1230
01:02:34,080 --> 01:02:36,600
Speaker 1: And the thing that boggles my mind too here, Sager,

1231
01:02:36,920 --> 01:02:39,760
Speaker 1: is we have a lot of leverage in this situation.

1232
01:02:39,960 --> 01:02:41,800
Speaker 1: So if we just said to them, look, we're not

1233
01:02:41,920 --> 01:02:45,880
Speaker 1: sending you anymore until we actually know how you're doing,

1234
01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:48,120
Speaker 1: what your plan is, what are the tactics, what does

1235
01:02:48,160 --> 01:02:52,000
Speaker 1: it look like, where are these weapons going to We

1236
01:02:52,040 --> 01:02:56,000
Speaker 1: could very easily say that, But apparently we are completely

1237
01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:59,560
Speaker 1: comfortable just flying blind here and crossing our fingers and

1238
01:02:59,600 --> 01:03:03,280
Speaker 1: basic like trusting the Ukrainians who have every incentive to

1239
01:03:03,640 --> 01:03:06,040
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not blaming them or researching for them

1240
01:03:06,040 --> 01:03:08,040
Speaker 1: for this. They're in a fight for their survival. They

1241
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:11,040
Speaker 1: have every incentive to lie and manipulate us in whatever

1242
01:03:11,080 --> 01:03:14,600
Speaker 1: way is convenient for their war effort. We're just accepting

1243
01:03:14,600 --> 01:03:17,360
Speaker 1: that as fine. Look, I mean this, it's always so

1244
01:03:17,440 --> 01:03:20,400
Speaker 1: difficult to have these conversations out sounding callous. Nobody's saying

1245
01:03:20,400 --> 01:03:23,000
Speaker 1: the Ukrainian causesn't just I think that the better actors

1246
01:03:23,360 --> 01:03:26,400
Speaker 1: in this situation, but they have their own incentive. They're fighting,

1247
01:03:26,440 --> 01:03:29,040
Speaker 1: like you said, for the literal survival of their country.

1248
01:03:29,080 --> 01:03:31,880
Speaker 1: And let's also be honest, they would not be even

1249
01:03:32,000 --> 01:03:35,200
Speaker 1: around both today and well both in the past and

1250
01:03:35,280 --> 01:03:38,600
Speaker 1: today if it weren't for the United States and for

1251
01:03:38,720 --> 01:03:41,760
Speaker 1: the West and NATO country. So I think that given

1252
01:03:41,840 --> 01:03:44,680
Speaker 1: the fact that we've basically saved them from complete ruin,

1253
01:03:45,040 --> 01:03:46,880
Speaker 1: we deserve a hell of a lot to say into

1254
01:03:46,920 --> 01:03:50,440
Speaker 1: actually what goes on on the battlefield, And instead it

1255
01:03:50,480 --> 01:03:52,920
Speaker 1: seems that the Ukrainians don't really want to tell us anything.

1256
01:03:53,000 --> 01:03:55,040
Speaker 1: And I guess in a way, you shouldn't blame them.

1257
01:03:55,080 --> 01:03:57,680
Speaker 1: I don't blame those I blame I blame ourket They're like,

1258
01:03:57,800 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 1: oh yeah, keep it coming, They're like, keep the checks

1259
01:04:00,080 --> 01:04:04,280
Speaker 1: rollin in all of these tanks. Yeah. Like, but don't

1260
01:04:04,280 --> 01:04:06,880
Speaker 1: you dare stop it because we need it. And yet

1261
01:04:06,960 --> 01:04:09,920
Speaker 1: the current indications that are coming out are actually not great,

1262
01:04:10,200 --> 01:04:12,840
Speaker 1: which also raises a question to me, which is, what

1263
01:04:12,880 --> 01:04:14,560
Speaker 1: the hell was the point of all this forty four

1264
01:04:14,560 --> 01:04:17,280
Speaker 1: billion if it's not even actually making as much of

1265
01:04:17,320 --> 01:04:19,680
Speaker 1: a difference as we were originally promised. So let's put

1266
01:04:19,680 --> 01:04:22,000
Speaker 1: this up there on the screen. You know, Ukraine is

1267
01:04:22,040 --> 01:04:25,720
Speaker 1: now telling specifically both NATO and the West that they

1268
01:04:25,760 --> 01:04:29,320
Speaker 1: feared defeat in the East without a surge in military aid.

1269
01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:34,000
Speaker 1: And actually the new information that we're getting is that

1270
01:04:34,240 --> 01:04:37,560
Speaker 1: this is, according to the Ukrainian government, is losing between

1271
01:04:37,600 --> 01:04:41,560
Speaker 1: one hundred to two hundred soldiers KIA killed in action

1272
01:04:41,960 --> 01:04:45,360
Speaker 1: every day, that is, with about five times that number

1273
01:04:45,600 --> 01:04:48,600
Speaker 1: that are injured daily. This is not a joke. One

1274
01:04:48,680 --> 01:04:52,400
Speaker 1: hundred to two hundred casualty or sorry, five or six

1275
01:04:52,440 --> 01:04:56,280
Speaker 1: hundred casualties per day on the battlefield. And when they

1276
01:04:56,360 --> 01:04:59,040
Speaker 1: point to the amount of Russian firepower that is being

1277
01:04:59,040 --> 01:05:02,440
Speaker 1: brought to bear, it is genuinely stunning. I mean, they

1278
01:05:02,440 --> 01:05:06,240
Speaker 1: are talking here about Russia despite the fact that and

1279
01:05:06,280 --> 01:05:08,200
Speaker 1: this is what we warned about. Yes, they have lost

1280
01:05:08,240 --> 01:05:11,160
Speaker 1: a significant amount of material, They've lost a lot of lives,

1281
01:05:11,360 --> 01:05:15,320
Speaker 1: they have lost prestige on the world stage. All of that,

1282
01:05:15,400 --> 01:05:18,200
Speaker 1: they are still a great power in their own right.

1283
01:05:18,280 --> 01:05:21,840
Speaker 1: They have a tremendous amount of military capability, and the

1284
01:05:21,920 --> 01:05:27,240
Speaker 1: Ukrainians talk here about being outgunned at a pretty significant level.

1285
01:05:27,240 --> 01:05:29,480
Speaker 1: And that also raises the question is like, well, what

1286
01:05:29,840 --> 01:05:33,600
Speaker 1: where did all this forty billion dollars go? So according

1287
01:05:33,640 --> 01:05:36,600
Speaker 1: to this President Biden has released seven hundred million in

1288
01:05:36,680 --> 01:05:39,760
Speaker 1: these new weapons deliveries to Ukraine. That's the first slice

1289
01:05:39,840 --> 01:05:42,440
Speaker 1: of the forty billion dollar aid package. Well what are

1290
01:05:42,480 --> 01:05:44,880
Speaker 1: we doing with the rest of the thirty nine billion?

1291
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 1: What's happening here? Was it just you know? And again

1292
01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:50,880
Speaker 1: I mean I really have no idea. And the Ukrainians

1293
01:05:50,880 --> 01:05:54,320
Speaker 1: are actually begging the European Union to also pass some

1294
01:05:54,480 --> 01:05:57,440
Speaker 1: new measures and to deliver new weapons systems. I mean,

1295
01:05:57,480 --> 01:06:00,000
Speaker 1: have we not already delivered a bunch of weapons systems?

1296
01:06:00,160 --> 01:06:02,080
Speaker 1: Like are they telling us that we're so incompetent that

1297
01:06:02,120 --> 01:06:05,800
Speaker 1: we can't even give them? This is the material they need.

1298
01:06:06,000 --> 01:06:10,520
Speaker 1: This is where it matters for our government to actually

1299
01:06:10,600 --> 01:06:13,720
Speaker 1: understand how things are going on the ground, because that

1300
01:06:13,920 --> 01:06:18,920
Speaker 1: really changes what the smart move is. I mean, you know,

1301
01:06:19,040 --> 01:06:23,480
Speaker 1: for a while, when Russia really faltered and flailed to

1302
01:06:23,520 --> 01:06:27,720
Speaker 1: start with, and basically I mean this is also the

1303
01:06:27,920 --> 01:06:35,160
Speaker 1: military analyst, the defense intelligence analysts, they completely overestimated Russia's capabilities,

1304
01:06:35,440 --> 01:06:38,920
Speaker 1: just as they completely overestimated also the Afghan government's capabilities.

1305
01:06:38,960 --> 01:06:40,960
Speaker 1: So they don't have a great track record here, so

1306
01:06:41,120 --> 01:06:44,720
Speaker 1: Russia dramatically underperforms. Then there starts to be this heady

1307
01:06:44,760 --> 01:06:47,800
Speaker 1: idea of like, oh, maybe Ukraine can win, so let's

1308
01:06:47,840 --> 01:06:50,960
Speaker 1: flood them with everything that maybe will get the maximalst outcome.

1309
01:06:51,200 --> 01:06:53,080
Speaker 1: They'll be able to completely win, They'll be able to

1310
01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:55,440
Speaker 1: push Russia even out of the territory that they had

1311
01:06:55,480 --> 01:06:59,880
Speaker 1: occupied prior to this, to this invasion, in this war, well,

1312
01:07:00,360 --> 01:07:04,040
Speaker 1: now that situation has very much shifted, and the Ukrainians

1313
01:07:04,040 --> 01:07:07,160
Speaker 1: are even being forced to admit at least part of

1314
01:07:07,200 --> 01:07:11,160
Speaker 1: the reality that they are suffering significant losses in the

1315
01:07:11,200 --> 01:07:15,120
Speaker 1: eastern part of the state. So all of these dynamics

1316
01:07:15,400 --> 01:07:19,320
Speaker 1: have a dramatic bearing on whether it makes sense for

1317
01:07:19,400 --> 01:07:22,000
Speaker 1: us to continue the flood of weapons into the state,

1318
01:07:22,320 --> 01:07:25,440
Speaker 1: whether it makes sense for us to you know, this

1319
01:07:25,480 --> 01:07:27,240
Speaker 1: is what I've been pushing for the whole time, to

1320
01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:30,080
Speaker 1: really put pressure on for both sides to come to

1321
01:07:30,120 --> 01:07:32,240
Speaker 1: the table and try to negotiate a settlement which is

1322
01:07:32,280 --> 01:07:36,000
Speaker 1: going to include pain and you know, significant concessions on

1323
01:07:36,520 --> 01:07:39,800
Speaker 1: both sides of that equation. But if you don't actually

1324
01:07:39,880 --> 01:07:43,000
Speaker 1: really know what's going on in the battlefield, what the

1325
01:07:43,040 --> 01:07:46,320
Speaker 1: plan is, how many losses are being suffered, what the

1326
01:07:46,560 --> 01:07:49,400
Speaker 1: you know what kind of equipment they have remaining. You

1327
01:07:49,440 --> 01:07:53,320
Speaker 1: can't make that calculus in any sort of an intelligent way.

1328
01:07:53,520 --> 01:07:56,919
Speaker 1: I'll also say this, when is enough? What's enough? Because

1329
01:07:56,960 --> 01:07:59,440
Speaker 1: if forty billion ain't gonna cut it, how much more

1330
01:07:59,440 --> 01:08:02,520
Speaker 1: do you need? Five hundred billion, six hundred billion? I mean,

1331
01:08:02,760 --> 01:08:06,400
Speaker 1: looks the conflict has now. Let's put this next one

1332
01:08:06,400 --> 01:08:08,200
Speaker 1: on the screen, which is that things are not going

1333
01:08:08,240 --> 01:08:11,000
Speaker 1: well for the Ukrainians. The Russian forces have apparently cut

1334
01:08:11,000 --> 01:08:13,240
Speaker 1: the last year I'm not even gonn try and say

1335
01:08:13,480 --> 01:08:17,479
Speaker 1: seven year old Dunyask escape route in the Dunboss region

1336
01:08:17,680 --> 01:08:19,880
Speaker 1: and the fighting in the dun Boss. The Ukrainians are

1337
01:08:19,880 --> 01:08:22,519
Speaker 1: not going to give up anytime soon. So the front

1338
01:08:22,520 --> 01:08:25,479
Speaker 1: line is basically where the front line was eight years ago,

1339
01:08:25,800 --> 01:08:29,799
Speaker 1: and now you have a long, grinding war. Both sides

1340
01:08:29,800 --> 01:08:33,200
Speaker 1: have lost tens of thousands of people, both in killed

1341
01:08:33,200 --> 01:08:36,559
Speaker 1: in action and in wounded. There's no giving up on site.

1342
01:08:36,960 --> 01:08:40,120
Speaker 1: We have basically committed ourselves to giving the Ukrainians whatever

1343
01:08:40,120 --> 01:08:43,120
Speaker 1: they want, to accomplish whatever they want. So are we

1344
01:08:43,240 --> 01:08:46,760
Speaker 1: just signing up for an annual appropriation of forty to

1345
01:08:46,800 --> 01:08:50,519
Speaker 1: fifty billion for you know, for the Ukrainian military forever

1346
01:08:50,520 --> 01:08:53,599
Speaker 1: that lasted apparently like a month. Well, this is my question.

1347
01:08:53,840 --> 01:08:57,559
Speaker 1: I don't understand. I don't understand like what exactly is

1348
01:08:57,640 --> 01:09:01,519
Speaker 1: going on in terms of our government policy, because there

1349
01:09:01,560 --> 01:09:03,439
Speaker 1: was a promise, you know, kind of in the beginning,

1350
01:09:03,439 --> 01:09:04,880
Speaker 1: you're like, oh, this is it, you know, this is

1351
01:09:04,920 --> 01:09:07,799
Speaker 1: the final push. But you know they're gonna need more.

1352
01:09:07,640 --> 01:09:10,120
Speaker 1: They're already the forty billion they say is not enough.

1353
01:09:10,120 --> 01:09:12,720
Speaker 1: They're begging the Europeans and them to send more. And look,

1354
01:09:13,040 --> 01:09:15,479
Speaker 1: I think Europeans should be sending the bulk of the

1355
01:09:15,520 --> 01:09:17,559
Speaker 1: weapons and that we should then be sending, you know,

1356
01:09:17,880 --> 01:09:21,920
Speaker 1: relative to our own security situation. But the real question

1357
01:09:22,080 --> 01:09:23,760
Speaker 1: I think for the US is at a certain point,

1358
01:09:23,760 --> 01:09:25,599
Speaker 1: we actually do need to make a choice and say, Okay,

1359
01:09:25,760 --> 01:09:27,880
Speaker 1: enough is enough. We've given you as much as we

1360
01:09:27,920 --> 01:09:31,400
Speaker 1: possibly can. And yet there is no discussion of that

1361
01:09:31,479 --> 01:09:35,439
Speaker 1: here in Washington whatsoever. And I also really do question

1362
01:09:35,760 --> 01:09:38,080
Speaker 1: given what I talked about in an earlier block, which

1363
01:09:38,120 --> 01:09:40,840
Speaker 1: is that all of the structural factors that led to

1364
01:09:40,920 --> 01:09:43,479
Speaker 1: cheap gas prices, they're gone. And one of the biggest

1365
01:09:43,479 --> 01:09:46,160
Speaker 1: ones that you actually could fix is the Russian Russian

1366
01:09:46,200 --> 01:09:50,600
Speaker 1: oil embargo. So the West, we have an extraordinary financial

1367
01:09:50,600 --> 01:09:53,720
Speaker 1: incentive literally, in order to try and get this thing

1368
01:09:53,760 --> 01:09:56,799
Speaker 1: to some sort of close and negotiate towards a position

1369
01:09:57,200 --> 01:10:01,120
Speaker 1: where we can actually have Russian oil re enter the market.

1370
01:10:01,120 --> 01:10:03,760
Speaker 1: But unfortunately, for political reasons, I don't think that that

1371
01:10:03,880 --> 01:10:05,960
Speaker 1: is the case. I also want to say this, which

1372
01:10:05,960 --> 01:10:09,000
Speaker 1: is that there's been a perverse incentive where you know,

1373
01:10:09,120 --> 01:10:12,960
Speaker 1: all these Russian sanctions. You know, Russia is actually doing

1374
01:10:13,120 --> 01:10:16,200
Speaker 1: okay right now. They have an account surplus of one

1375
01:10:16,280 --> 01:10:19,719
Speaker 1: hundred and ten billion dollars for the first four months

1376
01:10:19,760 --> 01:10:22,439
Speaker 1: of this year from thirty two billion in the same

1377
01:10:22,439 --> 01:10:25,519
Speaker 1: period last year. Why do you think because oil prices

1378
01:10:25,520 --> 01:10:28,479
Speaker 1: are sky high and because the West aren't the only

1379
01:10:28,520 --> 01:10:31,439
Speaker 1: players in the game, India, China, many other countries. You

1380
01:10:31,439 --> 01:10:33,479
Speaker 1: think they're not going to buy discointed Russian oil if

1381
01:10:33,479 --> 01:10:36,559
Speaker 1: they can in an overall hot market, they'd be idiots.

1382
01:10:36,680 --> 01:10:40,559
Speaker 1: Not too so. Russia is actually making a boatload of money.

1383
01:10:40,720 --> 01:10:45,240
Speaker 1: Their IMF says that their economy might shrink by about

1384
01:10:45,240 --> 01:10:47,679
Speaker 1: eight point five percent. Now, listen, that's that is devastating.

1385
01:10:47,720 --> 01:10:50,000
Speaker 1: I don't want to downplay that, but Ukraine's is going

1386
01:10:50,080 --> 01:10:52,800
Speaker 1: to shrivel by thirty five percent as a result of

1387
01:10:52,840 --> 01:10:56,000
Speaker 1: this war. That's a disaster. It's so easy to to ignore.

1388
01:10:57,320 --> 01:11:01,360
Speaker 1: Of course, the most pain is in Ukraine, with the

1389
01:11:01,400 --> 01:11:04,400
Speaker 1: people who are being slaughtered in their towns destroyed and

1390
01:11:04,439 --> 01:11:08,640
Speaker 1: their lives upended, no doubt about it. Partly because of

1391
01:11:08,640 --> 01:11:10,960
Speaker 1: this war, we now have almost fifty million people facing

1392
01:11:10,960 --> 01:11:13,200
Speaker 1: famine around the world. Yeah, it's also true. And so

1393
01:11:13,560 --> 01:11:16,759
Speaker 1: I mean you have not only the oil prices, gas

1394
01:11:16,800 --> 01:11:19,639
Speaker 1: prices going up and up and up, food prices going

1395
01:11:19,800 --> 01:11:22,120
Speaker 1: up and up and up. I mean, these are real

1396
01:11:22,600 --> 01:11:27,720
Speaker 1: consequences for people around the globe, especially the most vulnerable

1397
01:11:27,720 --> 01:11:30,920
Speaker 1: people around the globe who were already struggling. It's all

1398
01:11:30,920 --> 01:11:35,519
Speaker 1: exacerbated by you know, rise and climate christout droughts and

1399
01:11:36,479 --> 01:11:39,759
Speaker 1: extreme weather events that have also caused crops to fail

1400
01:11:39,880 --> 01:11:44,000
Speaker 1: in significant places that are contributing to the catastrophe. So

1401
01:11:44,880 --> 01:11:48,120
Speaker 1: these are not costless decisions. I know. Sometimes it feels

1402
01:11:48,200 --> 01:11:50,599
Speaker 1: like when Congres strokes a check for forty billion dollars. Oh,

1403
01:11:50,600 --> 01:11:53,120
Speaker 1: it's you know, what difference does it really make? But

1404
01:11:53,360 --> 01:11:56,519
Speaker 1: it's really not even about that. As the austerity that

1405
01:11:56,640 --> 01:12:00,559
Speaker 1: is being imposed around the globe and again in a

1406
01:12:00,560 --> 01:12:04,920
Speaker 1: lot of instances and fifty million instances with absolutely dire

1407
01:12:05,000 --> 01:12:08,840
Speaker 1: and devastating consequences. So there's no endgame inside here, I

1408
01:12:08,840 --> 01:12:11,760
Speaker 1: mean to be honest with you. Probably the window for

1409
01:12:11,840 --> 01:12:14,400
Speaker 1: negotiations where the Ukrainians would have been in the strongest

1410
01:12:14,439 --> 01:12:17,880
Speaker 1: position is after they had pushed the Russians back out

1411
01:12:17,960 --> 01:12:19,479
Speaker 1: of a number of cities and it seemed like they

1412
01:12:19,479 --> 01:12:21,360
Speaker 1: were on the march and it seemed like, oh they

1413
01:12:21,439 --> 01:12:23,519
Speaker 1: maybe they have the upper hand, maybe they can actually

1414
01:12:23,600 --> 01:12:25,600
Speaker 1: win this war. That was when they were in the

1415
01:12:25,640 --> 01:12:29,120
Speaker 1: strongest negotiating position. Now that they're having to admit to

1416
01:12:29,240 --> 01:12:33,080
Speaker 1: these significant losses, you know. They the Wall Street Journal

1417
01:12:33,120 --> 01:12:35,960
Speaker 1: piece that we had up before. Ukrainian officials are saying

1418
01:12:36,000 --> 01:12:38,280
Speaker 1: that this is and this is keep in mind, this

1419
01:12:38,360 --> 01:12:40,720
Speaker 1: is their this is their spin, and this is an

1420
01:12:40,720 --> 01:12:43,840
Speaker 1: attempt to get more weapons funding from US and from

1421
01:12:43,880 --> 01:12:47,240
Speaker 1: the Europeans. But they say without a broaden rapid increase

1422
01:12:47,280 --> 01:12:51,200
Speaker 1: in military assistance, Ukraine faces a defeat in the eastern

1423
01:12:51,280 --> 01:12:53,800
Speaker 1: down Boss region. But that's not all. They say that

1424
01:12:53,800 --> 01:12:56,120
Speaker 1: would pave the way for Russia to pursue its offensive

1425
01:12:56,120 --> 01:13:00,000
Speaker 1: to Odessa Kharkiv after regrouping coming months, they say, potentially

1426
01:13:00,080 --> 01:13:02,439
Speaker 1: all the way back to the capital Kiev after that.

1427
01:13:02,880 --> 01:13:05,040
Speaker 1: So the fact that Ukrainians were able to push them

1428
01:13:05,080 --> 01:13:08,160
Speaker 1: out of some of these places, that's not set in stone.

1429
01:13:08,640 --> 01:13:13,679
Speaker 1: Those gains can be reversed, especially if Ukraine is outright

1430
01:13:13,720 --> 01:13:16,120
Speaker 1: defeated in the Eastern dawn Bass region and right now,

1431
01:13:16,160 --> 01:13:19,240
Speaker 1: from what we can tell, it is not going well. Yeah,

1432
01:13:19,280 --> 01:13:22,400
Speaker 1: it's just all about political pressure on Putin, which is

1433
01:13:22,479 --> 01:13:24,679
Speaker 1: right now, he doesn't have a lot of incentive obviously

1434
01:13:24,720 --> 01:13:27,200
Speaker 1: in order to especially with the high oil prices right

1435
01:13:27,200 --> 01:13:30,320
Speaker 1: that's not going away anytime. So he's in the economy

1436
01:13:29,720 --> 01:13:32,679
Speaker 1: and float the economy and bankroll a lot of what's

1437
01:13:32,720 --> 01:13:36,519
Speaker 1: happening here. So look, yeah, I mean the fact that

1438
01:13:37,360 --> 01:13:39,479
Speaker 1: we have given them so much and this is the

1439
01:13:39,560 --> 01:13:42,559
Speaker 1: end result. Look, they obviously are heroic, they'll be able

1440
01:13:42,560 --> 01:13:45,799
Speaker 1: to push back and more. But the more and longer

1441
01:13:45,840 --> 01:13:48,120
Speaker 1: this grinds on, the worse I think it is going

1442
01:13:48,200 --> 01:13:50,760
Speaker 1: to be for the Ukrainians, just because that's how it

1443
01:13:50,880 --> 01:13:53,880
Speaker 1: works when you fight a superpower, and that is the

1444
01:13:54,160 --> 01:13:57,160
Speaker 1: longer and more likely that we get pulled into this

1445
01:13:57,200 --> 01:14:00,479
Speaker 1: thing in the long term, because the longer that conflicts run,

1446
01:14:00,640 --> 01:14:03,400
Speaker 1: the more likely that things can go wrong. All it

1447
01:14:03,439 --> 01:14:06,240
Speaker 1: takes is one new advanced weapons system that the Ukrainian

1448
01:14:06,240 --> 01:14:08,360
Speaker 1: guy barely knows how to use, and that is open

1449
01:14:08,400 --> 01:14:10,320
Speaker 1: source that's been out there. That we have to train

1450
01:14:10,400 --> 01:14:12,240
Speaker 1: these guys how to use these weapons because they literally

1451
01:14:12,240 --> 01:14:14,479
Speaker 1: have no idea and have never had any training on

1452
01:14:14,520 --> 01:14:17,880
Speaker 1: them different platforms, they're complex, highly en I'm not denigrating that.

1453
01:14:18,000 --> 01:14:19,840
Speaker 1: It just is what it is. And so look, all

1454
01:14:19,840 --> 01:14:21,559
Speaker 1: it takes is one of those to get fired into

1455
01:14:21,560 --> 01:14:24,120
Speaker 1: the wrong place, one commander, and that's it. And then

1456
01:14:24,320 --> 01:14:27,360
Speaker 1: now we're in a whole other diplomatic snafu. And also

1457
01:14:27,400 --> 01:14:30,439
Speaker 1: remember this is the other kind of chauvinistic mindset for

1458
01:14:30,479 --> 01:14:32,280
Speaker 1: a lot of Americans. We're not the only player in

1459
01:14:32,320 --> 01:14:35,560
Speaker 1: this game. There are the Lithuanians and the Estonians, and

1460
01:14:35,600 --> 01:14:38,920
Speaker 1: the Romanians, and the Brits and the Germans, I mean

1461
01:14:39,000 --> 01:14:42,719
Speaker 1: in France. These are all NATO countries. So we also

1462
01:14:42,760 --> 01:14:45,200
Speaker 1: have to trust that they are doing the right thing

1463
01:14:45,479 --> 01:14:47,519
Speaker 1: in terms of what they're helping the Ukrainians with because

1464
01:14:47,520 --> 01:14:49,639
Speaker 1: of the attack on them is also going to eventually

1465
01:14:49,720 --> 01:14:52,439
Speaker 1: bring us into this and we have a massive alliance.

1466
01:14:52,560 --> 01:14:55,360
Speaker 1: Now Finland and Sweden are apparently going to be in

1467
01:14:55,400 --> 01:14:59,679
Speaker 1: this thing as well. So the potential for a massive

1468
01:14:59,760 --> 01:15:04,400
Speaker 1: esque relation, which is completely accidental, remains, and everybody continues

1469
01:15:04,439 --> 01:15:06,679
Speaker 1: to say, like, oh, well, none of that has happened yet.

1470
01:15:06,840 --> 01:15:10,360
Speaker 1: It's been four months. It's been one hundred days. The

1471
01:15:10,439 --> 01:15:14,639
Speaker 1: idea that you can evaluate the efficacy of your policy

1472
01:15:14,680 --> 01:15:17,200
Speaker 1: after one hundred days is insanity. One hundred days after

1473
01:15:17,240 --> 01:15:19,000
Speaker 1: the invasion of Iraq, we would have said there was

1474
01:15:19,000 --> 01:15:21,040
Speaker 1: an explosion of freedom in Baghdad, and then you know,

1475
01:15:21,280 --> 01:15:24,479
Speaker 1: the invasion of one hundred days after knocking Gadafi off,

1476
01:15:24,520 --> 01:15:26,120
Speaker 1: you could have made a case. You're like, hey, lebya,

1477
01:15:26,200 --> 01:15:28,360
Speaker 1: look at this. You know, people are choosing freedom all

1478
01:15:28,400 --> 01:15:30,519
Speaker 1: of this. Call me in five years and we'll figure

1479
01:15:30,520 --> 01:15:35,920
Speaker 1: out exactly how this thing all worked out. Big news

1480
01:15:36,280 --> 01:15:38,960
Speaker 1: coming out of the FED yesterday. Let's go ahead and

1481
01:15:38,960 --> 01:15:41,160
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen here. So the FED

1482
01:15:41,200 --> 01:15:44,400
Speaker 1: approved a seventy five basis point increase. Again, seventy five

1483
01:15:44,439 --> 01:15:46,800
Speaker 1: basis points. That just means zero point seventy five of

1484
01:15:46,840 --> 01:15:48,559
Speaker 1: a percent. For some reason, they like to say it

1485
01:15:48,600 --> 01:15:52,759
Speaker 1: that way. On Wednesday, that is the largest rate rise

1486
01:15:53,280 --> 01:15:57,360
Speaker 1: since nineteen ninety four. All officials at that meeting projective

1487
01:15:57,400 --> 01:16:00,200
Speaker 1: rates rising to three percent. And I do I think

1488
01:16:00,240 --> 01:16:03,840
Speaker 1: we should reflect for a moment on how much the

1489
01:16:03,880 --> 01:16:07,760
Speaker 1: FED has moved in terms of the lengths they are

1490
01:16:07,800 --> 01:16:09,880
Speaker 1: willing to go to titan the economy. When you say

1491
01:16:09,920 --> 01:16:12,280
Speaker 1: tighten the economy, and that means taking money out of

1492
01:16:12,400 --> 01:16:14,120
Speaker 1: your bank account, I mean, that's what they're trying to

1493
01:16:14,120 --> 01:16:17,320
Speaker 1: do here and very very likely to trigger a recession

1494
01:16:17,360 --> 01:16:20,400
Speaker 1: at this point because what they have done so far

1495
01:16:20,520 --> 01:16:23,679
Speaker 1: hasn't worked. I mean, we just got this extraordinary inflation

1496
01:16:23,800 --> 01:16:27,520
Speaker 1: report last week that led them to move from increasing

1497
01:16:27,560 --> 01:16:30,519
Speaker 1: fifty basis points to seventy five basis points. Some analysts

1498
01:16:30,520 --> 01:16:32,679
Speaker 1: were even saying we might get one hundred basis points.

1499
01:16:33,280 --> 01:16:35,639
Speaker 1: It looks very likely that we'll be at point seventy

1500
01:16:35,680 --> 01:16:40,320
Speaker 1: five for the next meeting as well. And that's that's

1501
01:16:40,360 --> 01:16:42,960
Speaker 1: a very different landscape than we were looking at just

1502
01:16:43,120 --> 01:16:46,639
Speaker 1: very recently with the Fed. Let's go ahead and listen

1503
01:16:46,680 --> 01:16:49,479
Speaker 1: to Fed charge or own pal gave a little bit

1504
01:16:49,479 --> 01:16:52,120
Speaker 1: of a presser afterwards explaining their thinking. Let's take a

1505
01:16:52,160 --> 01:16:56,439
Speaker 1: listen to that. I will begin with one overarching message.

1506
01:16:56,760 --> 01:16:59,599
Speaker 1: We at the FED understand the hardship that high inflation

1507
01:16:59,720 --> 01:17:03,920
Speaker 1: is called. We're strongly committed to bringing inflation back down

1508
01:17:04,680 --> 01:17:08,599
Speaker 1: and we're moving expeditiously to do so. We have both

1509
01:17:08,600 --> 01:17:10,320
Speaker 1: the tools we need and the result that it will

1510
01:17:10,320 --> 01:17:13,839
Speaker 1: take to restore price stability on behalf of American families

1511
01:17:13,880 --> 01:17:17,880
Speaker 1: and businesses. The economy and the country have been through

1512
01:17:18,120 --> 01:17:19,880
Speaker 1: a lot over the past two and a half years

1513
01:17:19,920 --> 01:17:23,400
Speaker 1: and have proved resilient. It is essential that we bring

1514
01:17:23,439 --> 01:17:25,920
Speaker 1: inflation down if we are to have a sustained period

1515
01:17:26,080 --> 01:17:29,760
Speaker 1: of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. They are

1516
01:17:29,760 --> 01:17:34,760
Speaker 1: also projecting unemployment is likely to go up. They are

1517
01:17:34,840 --> 01:17:38,800
Speaker 1: projecting economic growth is set to slow. So the specifics here,

1518
01:17:38,880 --> 01:17:42,000
Speaker 1: our officials projected one point seven percent GDP growth this

1519
01:17:42,080 --> 01:17:44,479
Speaker 1: year and next. That's down from March projections just from

1520
01:17:44,560 --> 01:17:47,560
Speaker 1: March of two point eight percent and two point two percent, respectively.

1521
01:17:48,000 --> 01:17:50,840
Speaker 1: The unemployment rate projected by all but when official to

1522
01:17:51,040 --> 01:17:53,840
Speaker 1: rise over the next two years. And I mean ultimately

1523
01:17:53,880 --> 01:17:58,719
Speaker 1: when you are lifting the rates. That's basically their goal.

1524
01:17:58,840 --> 01:18:01,080
Speaker 1: I mean, that's the goal. I just wish they would

1525
01:18:01,080 --> 01:18:03,960
Speaker 1: be honest, right, That's the only thing that this is

1526
01:18:03,960 --> 01:18:07,400
Speaker 1: going to ultimately lead to. Is they want to make

1527
01:18:07,439 --> 01:18:09,639
Speaker 1: it so you have less money to spend, and that's

1528
01:18:09,680 --> 01:18:12,760
Speaker 1: their only tool for ultimately getting inflation under chmissu secret

1529
01:18:12,800 --> 01:18:14,960
Speaker 1: either way, I saw this elitist take on this, So like,

1530
01:18:15,040 --> 01:18:17,240
Speaker 1: just so you know, when the FED raises interest rates,

1531
01:18:17,240 --> 01:18:19,439
Speaker 1: they're paying you to save. Oh yeah, I'm gonna take

1532
01:18:19,479 --> 01:18:22,439
Speaker 1: my point seventy five percent in crew. By the way,

1533
01:18:22,479 --> 01:18:24,960
Speaker 1: what are the savings rates interest rates right now? Like

1534
01:18:25,040 --> 01:18:27,880
Speaker 1: point five five or something like that? Credit card data

1535
01:18:27,920 --> 01:18:29,600
Speaker 1: is bius has ever been in history. I'm going to

1536
01:18:29,640 --> 01:18:32,000
Speaker 1: take the interest on that and then I'll spend it

1537
01:18:32,040 --> 01:18:34,120
Speaker 1: on my gas, which is up twenty five percent, and

1538
01:18:34,120 --> 01:18:36,639
Speaker 1: we'll see with So I've saved twenty four point five

1539
01:18:36,760 --> 01:18:40,280
Speaker 1: Thank you, FED. Congratulations. This has real implications for the

1540
01:18:40,320 --> 01:18:42,040
Speaker 1: housing market. Let's put this on the screen. We've been

1541
01:18:42,080 --> 01:18:44,680
Speaker 1: tracking this closely. The mortgage rate is now up to

1542
01:18:44,760 --> 01:18:48,120
Speaker 1: six point three percent, up from five point five just

1543
01:18:48,160 --> 01:18:51,160
Speaker 1: a week ago. Remember, as we said that, I forget

1544
01:18:51,160 --> 01:18:53,920
Speaker 1: the exact math, but every increase in a single percentage

1545
01:18:54,240 --> 01:18:56,599
Speaker 1: or so means that your mortgage rate is or your

1546
01:18:56,640 --> 01:19:00,880
Speaker 1: mortgage actual payment is double the next month. So as

1547
01:19:00,920 --> 01:19:03,240
Speaker 1: we continue to see this happen, six point two eight

1548
01:19:03,320 --> 01:19:05,840
Speaker 1: percent versus the three or so percent which was just

1549
01:19:05,920 --> 01:19:08,920
Speaker 1: six months ago, versus the one something percent that was

1550
01:19:08,920 --> 01:19:11,439
Speaker 1: a year ago, you are going to have a total

1551
01:19:11,479 --> 01:19:15,320
Speaker 1: freezing of the housing market. You know, just as this morning,

1552
01:19:15,479 --> 01:19:17,840
Speaker 1: the market hasn't opened yet, the Dow is down six

1553
01:19:17,960 --> 01:19:21,519
Speaker 1: hundred points on the futures. And for the very first time,

1554
01:19:21,840 --> 01:19:25,640
Speaker 1: housing permits have collapsed in the month of May. So

1555
01:19:25,720 --> 01:19:28,200
Speaker 1: that's the latest data that we have. But and when

1556
01:19:28,240 --> 01:19:30,360
Speaker 1: I say collapse, I mean I mean one of the

1557
01:19:30,360 --> 01:19:33,280
Speaker 1: most precipitous drops we have seen in over two and

1558
01:19:33,320 --> 01:19:35,720
Speaker 1: a half years. Just looking at that data that just

1559
01:19:35,760 --> 01:19:37,840
Speaker 1: broke this morning. So why do you think that is?

1560
01:19:37,960 --> 01:19:40,120
Speaker 1: Who's going to build a house when the mortgage is

1561
01:19:40,160 --> 01:19:42,280
Speaker 1: at six point three percent. Now you could say it's

1562
01:19:42,280 --> 01:19:45,200
Speaker 1: too hot. I completely agree, but there needs to be

1563
01:19:45,520 --> 01:19:47,639
Speaker 1: a level of balance. They're going to push us into

1564
01:19:47,960 --> 01:19:51,719
Speaker 1: a recession. Recessions mean that people die. There's no way

1565
01:19:51,760 --> 01:19:54,120
Speaker 1: to just It's not just people lose their jobs. A

1566
01:19:54,200 --> 01:19:57,720
Speaker 1: lot of people kill themselves during depressions or recessions. A

1567
01:19:57,760 --> 01:20:01,000
Speaker 1: lot a lot of people do not pursue healthcare that

1568
01:20:01,040 --> 01:20:03,800
Speaker 1: they actually need, life changing surgery. A lot of people

1569
01:20:03,840 --> 01:20:07,000
Speaker 1: continue to work, which leads to stress, which leads to death.

1570
01:20:07,160 --> 01:20:10,479
Speaker 1: I mean the after effects and follow on that we saw.

1571
01:20:10,520 --> 01:20:12,360
Speaker 1: I mean, I personally think that one of the reasons

1572
01:20:12,400 --> 01:20:14,240
Speaker 1: we even had the opioid crisis is because of the

1573
01:20:14,320 --> 01:20:16,519
Speaker 1: Great Recession. There's a decent amount of data in order

1574
01:20:16,560 --> 01:20:18,400
Speaker 1: to link those two things. No, that's right, Yeah, that

1575
01:20:18,520 --> 01:20:21,080
Speaker 1: is very very true. Now, just to give a little

1576
01:20:21,080 --> 01:20:24,479
Speaker 1: bit of math behind what you were saying from that article,

1577
01:20:24,520 --> 01:20:26,880
Speaker 1: they say, on a four hundred thousand dollars home, which

1578
01:20:26,960 --> 01:20:29,360
Speaker 1: is now crazy to me, like actually less than the

1579
01:20:29,400 --> 01:20:32,280
Speaker 1: median house price four hundred thousand dollars with a twenty

1580
01:20:32,280 --> 01:20:36,080
Speaker 1: percent down payment, the monthly mortgage payment went from fourteen

1581
01:20:36,160 --> 01:20:39,360
Speaker 1: hundred dollars at the start of January to basically two

1582
01:20:39,400 --> 01:20:43,840
Speaker 1: thousand dollars. Now wow, So effectively a six hundred dollars

1583
01:20:44,000 --> 01:20:47,360
Speaker 1: increase on your mortgage payment over the course of just

1584
01:20:47,400 --> 01:20:51,040
Speaker 1: a few months. That doesn't include hommer's insurance or property taxes.

1585
01:20:52,000 --> 01:20:55,320
Speaker 1: Megan mccardal made an interesting point as well, which is

1586
01:20:55,400 --> 01:20:57,439
Speaker 1: that you know, people are going to be very reluctant

1587
01:20:57,479 --> 01:20:59,439
Speaker 1: also to sell their homes because they don't want to

1588
01:20:59,479 --> 01:21:01,559
Speaker 1: jump from life. You know, let's say a one point

1589
01:21:01,600 --> 01:21:04,000
Speaker 1: seventy five percent mortgage to a six percent one Go

1590
01:21:04,040 --> 01:21:06,280
Speaker 1: ahead and put this tweet up on the screen. She writes,

1591
01:21:06,320 --> 01:21:08,880
Speaker 1: if mortgage rates stay high. One thing I expect we'll

1592
01:21:08,880 --> 01:21:10,880
Speaker 1: see is a collapse in willingness to sell homes. It

1593
01:21:10,880 --> 01:21:12,880
Speaker 1: would take a lot to get me to trade my

1594
01:21:12,880 --> 01:21:15,400
Speaker 1: one point seventy five percent mortgage for a six percenter,

1595
01:21:15,479 --> 01:21:20,439
Speaker 1: because yeah, it makes a massive, massive difference over the

1596
01:21:20,479 --> 01:21:24,200
Speaker 1: long haul. And you know, I feel like we've been

1597
01:21:24,240 --> 01:21:26,000
Speaker 1: beating a dead horse with this, but it is so

1598
01:21:26,040 --> 01:21:30,240
Speaker 1: important and so central to people's lives. Because you have

1599
01:21:30,560 --> 01:21:34,400
Speaker 1: a president and Congress, and you know, two parties that

1600
01:21:34,560 --> 01:21:38,800
Speaker 1: are unable unwilling to act. The FED is the only game.

1601
01:21:39,080 --> 01:21:41,320
Speaker 1: And part of how we ended up in this situation

1602
01:21:41,400 --> 01:21:43,639
Speaker 1: with high inflation to start with was because the FED

1603
01:21:43,720 --> 01:21:46,240
Speaker 1: was the only game. I mean, their action during the

1604
01:21:46,240 --> 01:21:50,759
Speaker 1: coronavirus crash pumping trillions of dollars into these markets backstop

1605
01:21:50,800 --> 01:21:53,080
Speaker 1: and inflating all of these bubbles. I mean, that was

1606
01:21:53,280 --> 01:21:56,040
Speaker 1: the start of how we ended up with inflation across

1607
01:21:56,040 --> 01:21:59,240
Speaker 1: the board. So they are in fact partly culpable for

1608
01:21:59,479 --> 01:22:02,240
Speaker 1: where we end up today. And certainly they're culbobol both

1609
01:22:02,240 --> 01:22:04,400
Speaker 1: from their actions there and also during the two thousand

1610
01:22:04,400 --> 01:22:09,080
Speaker 1: and eight recession for massively inflating inequality as well. And

1611
01:22:09,600 --> 01:22:11,639
Speaker 1: you know, we've got a lot of problems that are

1612
01:22:11,680 --> 01:22:14,040
Speaker 1: causing inflation. I think we should all be troubled by

1613
01:22:14,040 --> 01:22:16,200
Speaker 1: the fact too, that what the FED has already done

1614
01:22:16,720 --> 01:22:22,640
Speaker 1: hasn't worked, because there's also no guarantee that these increases

1615
01:22:22,640 --> 01:22:25,280
Speaker 1: in rates are going to fully address the inflation issues

1616
01:22:25,320 --> 01:22:27,920
Speaker 1: that we even have, because they're not not. I mean, look,

1617
01:22:27,960 --> 01:22:30,080
Speaker 1: part of it was demand, but honestly, a lot of

1618
01:22:30,080 --> 01:22:33,519
Speaker 1: the demand part has already burned off, saving credit card

1619
01:22:33,520 --> 01:22:37,200
Speaker 1: debt sky high, savings way down, so a lot of

1620
01:22:37,240 --> 01:22:40,639
Speaker 1: that is already burned off. And yet that's the only

1621
01:22:40,800 --> 01:22:43,240
Speaker 1: lever that they're willing to pull, and that lever is

1622
01:22:43,240 --> 01:22:46,240
Speaker 1: the one that destroys you and your finances rather than

1623
01:22:46,280 --> 01:22:49,040
Speaker 1: dealing with oh hey, it's their supply chain is oh hey,

1624
01:22:49,080 --> 01:22:51,840
Speaker 1: we have a war in Ukraine that's causing massive price

1625
01:22:51,960 --> 01:22:54,000
Speaker 1: spikes as well. Not to say that's the only thing

1626
01:22:54,080 --> 01:22:56,600
Speaker 1: going on, but the Fed. The FED has nothing to

1627
01:22:56,600 --> 01:22:58,439
Speaker 1: do with the Ukraine war. This Fed has nothing to

1628
01:22:58,439 --> 01:23:01,160
Speaker 1: do with supply chain issues. Those all continue to go

1629
01:23:01,280 --> 01:23:04,360
Speaker 1: undealt with and unresolved, and you are unlikely to get

1630
01:23:04,360 --> 01:23:06,639
Speaker 1: inflation under controlling time soon, all right. I mean, look,

1631
01:23:06,680 --> 01:23:09,920
Speaker 1: even if you crash demand Okay, let's say we crash demand,

1632
01:23:09,960 --> 01:23:13,479
Speaker 1: we induce a recession. I mean people still need to drive. Yes,

1633
01:23:13,600 --> 01:23:16,800
Speaker 1: some extra driving might come down, but the gas price

1634
01:23:16,840 --> 01:23:18,800
Speaker 1: is still probably going to remain above four dollars a gallon.

1635
01:23:18,920 --> 01:23:21,680
Speaker 1: That's not a victory in my opinion. Right. If you

1636
01:23:21,800 --> 01:23:25,040
Speaker 1: look at the housing market, the same thing, Okay, you've

1637
01:23:25,080 --> 01:23:28,839
Speaker 1: slowed it down, you've basically frozen up the elite housing market.

1638
01:23:28,840 --> 01:23:30,880
Speaker 1: Well number one, a lot of people who are very

1639
01:23:30,920 --> 01:23:33,479
Speaker 1: wealthy are still going to buy houses permanent capital. They

1640
01:23:33,479 --> 01:23:35,760
Speaker 1: don't care about a six percent mortgage rate if they

1641
01:23:35,760 --> 01:23:38,519
Speaker 1: can pernit twenty five percent profit. So that only even

1642
01:23:38,560 --> 01:23:41,479
Speaker 1: continues to keep you frozen out of the game. Food.

1643
01:23:41,600 --> 01:23:44,000
Speaker 1: I mean, look, we've talked here endlessly. I've got a

1644
01:23:44,240 --> 01:23:47,479
Speaker 1: piece in my monologue about how natural gas markets in

1645
01:23:47,520 --> 01:23:50,320
Speaker 1: Europe are seizing up because the Russians are cutting off

1646
01:23:50,400 --> 01:23:53,400
Speaker 1: natural gas to both Germany and to Italy. That is

1647
01:23:53,439 --> 01:23:57,120
Speaker 1: going to drive fertilizer prices sky high. We are already

1648
01:23:57,160 --> 01:24:00,320
Speaker 1: watching a massive fertilizer crunch here in the US. That's

1649
01:24:00,360 --> 01:24:03,320
Speaker 1: going to continue to increase the amount of food. China

1650
01:24:03,479 --> 01:24:06,920
Speaker 1: is opening up to a big degree transitioning away from

1651
01:24:06,960 --> 01:24:10,240
Speaker 1: COVID zero. Guess what that means. The demand for gas

1652
01:24:10,520 --> 01:24:13,400
Speaker 1: is going to go up and China currently, it seems

1653
01:24:13,439 --> 01:24:16,960
Speaker 1: all indications President Biden is actually going to lift tariffs

1654
01:24:17,160 --> 01:24:20,840
Speaker 1: on US consumer or on US goods that actually could

1655
01:24:20,880 --> 01:24:25,559
Speaker 1: conversely spike Chinese imports from the United States, which would

1656
01:24:25,560 --> 01:24:28,760
Speaker 1: only continue to drive up inflation. Everybody says, you could

1657
01:24:28,760 --> 01:24:31,800
Speaker 1: save money. They don't consider that the demand of these

1658
01:24:31,880 --> 01:24:36,080
Speaker 1: products could increase soybean markets, agricultural markets. It's very likely,

1659
01:24:36,080 --> 01:24:39,280
Speaker 1: actually that lifting Chinese tariffs will almost certainly increase the

1660
01:24:39,360 --> 01:24:42,120
Speaker 1: price of food here in the United States. So from

1661
01:24:42,160 --> 01:24:46,400
Speaker 1: the supply side problem, we have major issues which are

1662
01:24:46,439 --> 01:24:49,640
Speaker 1: not even being addressed. White House Press Secretary asks the

1663
01:24:49,680 --> 01:24:52,679
Speaker 1: gas companies to be patriots and to lower the price

1664
01:24:52,720 --> 01:24:56,920
Speaker 1: of gas because that's how capital markets work. Congratulations. I

1665
01:24:57,000 --> 01:25:03,440
Speaker 1: just can't even like with them. They're so incompetent, foolish, impotent,

1666
01:25:03,920 --> 01:25:07,160
Speaker 1: just the picturesque of the worst possible people that you

1667
01:25:07,200 --> 01:25:11,400
Speaker 1: would want. Well, I mean, here's here's the reality. Neither

1668
01:25:11,479 --> 01:25:14,639
Speaker 1: of these parties, under a sort of like Wall Street

1669
01:25:14,720 --> 01:25:18,240
Speaker 1: centric market obsessed economic approach to have any answers to

1670
01:25:18,280 --> 01:25:20,599
Speaker 1: this outside of the FED taking a sledgehammer to your

1671
01:25:20,600 --> 01:25:23,680
Speaker 1: bank account. And so I think that's really where the

1672
01:25:23,760 --> 01:25:28,040
Speaker 1: handcuffs come in. Is Biden's whole sort of economic orthodoxy,

1673
01:25:28,040 --> 01:25:30,400
Speaker 1: always positioning himself in the center, this is what my

1674
01:25:30,439 --> 01:25:33,719
Speaker 1: monologue is on, and never wanting to stray o color

1675
01:25:33,760 --> 01:25:36,840
Speaker 1: outside of the lines and get creative here. So, yeah,

1676
01:25:36,880 --> 01:25:38,800
Speaker 1: if you're stuck in this like, ah, we just got

1677
01:25:38,840 --> 01:25:42,760
Speaker 1: to let the markets work themselves out mindset, then you know,

1678
01:25:42,840 --> 01:25:45,040
Speaker 1: believe other what can we do? We can't really do anything.

1679
01:25:45,040 --> 01:25:46,720
Speaker 1: We can do these little things around the margin. Maybe

1680
01:25:46,720 --> 01:25:49,120
Speaker 1: we'll deal with the tariffs. Maybe we'll take the tariffs off,

1681
01:25:49,200 --> 01:25:52,200
Speaker 1: which I don't even if people who are pushing that

1682
01:25:52,520 --> 01:25:54,719
Speaker 1: don't expect it to have much of a positive impact.

1683
01:25:54,920 --> 01:25:57,040
Speaker 1: So even in the best case scenario, let's say you're

1684
01:25:57,040 --> 01:25:59,719
Speaker 1: wrong about it fueling inflation, even the best case scenario,

1685
01:26:00,040 --> 01:26:01,320
Speaker 1: when it is saying this is going to have like

1686
01:26:01,360 --> 01:26:05,120
Speaker 1: a significant impact, Biden himself, they did this whole Let's

1687
01:26:05,120 --> 01:26:08,120
Speaker 1: go to Iowa, let's boost ethanol production. Let's make the

1688
01:26:08,160 --> 01:26:11,200
Speaker 1: case that that's going to lower gas prices. Biden himself

1689
01:26:11,200 --> 01:26:13,080
Speaker 1: went back to the White House and was chewing out

1690
01:26:13,160 --> 01:26:15,759
Speaker 1: ron Klain like this is basically bullshit. I don't believe

1691
01:26:15,760 --> 01:26:18,160
Speaker 1: that this is going to have any impact whatsoever. So

1692
01:26:18,400 --> 01:26:20,879
Speaker 1: they know that the things that they're doing are impotent.

1693
01:26:21,240 --> 01:26:23,599
Speaker 1: The best they can do is send a strongly worded

1694
01:26:23,680 --> 01:26:26,960
Speaker 1: letter to the oil and gas company give me a break,

1695
01:26:27,280 --> 01:26:30,200
Speaker 1: and say to like the FED, go do you We're

1696
01:26:30,200 --> 01:26:31,920
Speaker 1: not we're not going to interfere, but go do your

1697
01:26:31,920 --> 01:26:34,240
Speaker 1: thing and basically, you know, crush working class people and

1698
01:26:34,240 --> 01:26:37,400
Speaker 1: trigger recession. Yeah, but that's that's all these parties really

1699
01:26:37,479 --> 01:26:40,720
Speaker 1: have to offer. Listen, that ethanol thing especially pisses me

1700
01:26:40,760 --> 01:26:42,400
Speaker 1: off because part of the reason that we have lower

1701
01:26:42,439 --> 01:26:45,160
Speaker 1: finding capacity is because of conversion over to biofuel. So

1702
01:26:45,160 --> 01:26:48,679
Speaker 1: it's like these these people are really at a very

1703
01:26:48,720 --> 01:26:52,240
Speaker 1: basic level. They don't understand what is going on. And

1704
01:26:52,280 --> 01:26:54,080
Speaker 1: it's bad for the climate too. By the way, it's

1705
01:26:54,120 --> 01:26:58,240
Speaker 1: like incredibly correct. Yeah, we don't like beyond that it

1706
01:26:58,280 --> 01:27:00,519
Speaker 1: doesn't work, and actually, in terms of missions and in

1707
01:27:00,600 --> 01:27:02,640
Speaker 1: terms of what it even means in order to correct that,

1708
01:27:02,640 --> 01:27:05,120
Speaker 1: it's a bullshit. It's not even correct. It's a terrible policy,

1709
01:27:05,240 --> 01:27:06,880
Speaker 1: and it has been pushed for a long time by

1710
01:27:06,920 --> 01:27:10,080
Speaker 1: big interests, AG interests far more than anything else. Well,

1711
01:27:10,080 --> 01:27:13,600
Speaker 1: it's the fact that Iowa comes first in the presidential primaries.

1712
01:27:13,600 --> 01:27:15,680
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's the whole reason we have that

1713
01:27:15,760 --> 01:27:18,640
Speaker 1: gigantic core and subsidies. So yeah, I'm really glad that

1714
01:27:18,640 --> 01:27:19,920
Speaker 1: we have it so that we can all pay more

1715
01:27:20,040 --> 01:27:23,760
Speaker 1: for gas. Let's talk about journalism. Journalism is important, right,

1716
01:27:24,000 --> 01:27:25,720
Speaker 1: Let's put this up there on the screen, or at

1717
01:27:25,800 --> 01:27:28,360
Speaker 1: least a journalists tell us that it is. Sixty five

1718
01:27:28,400 --> 01:27:32,000
Speaker 1: percent of journalists surveyed in a new Pew Research survey

1719
01:27:32,280 --> 01:27:36,000
Speaker 1: say that news organizations do a quote very or somewhat

1720
01:27:36,080 --> 01:27:40,240
Speaker 1: good job of reporting the news accurately. Do Americans agree? No,

1721
01:27:40,479 --> 01:27:43,400
Speaker 1: it's actually thirty five percent of Americans who say that

1722
01:27:43,439 --> 01:27:46,840
Speaker 1: they do, while forty three percent, the majority say that

1723
01:27:46,920 --> 01:27:51,720
Speaker 1: journalists do a bad job of reporting the news accurately.

1724
01:27:52,200 --> 01:27:56,000
Speaker 1: I also just love the serving as watchdog over elected leaders.

1725
01:27:56,200 --> 01:27:59,840
Speaker 1: If you look at the split, a majority of Democrats

1726
01:28:00,080 --> 01:28:03,200
Speaker 1: or sorry, a majority of journals I guess somewhat interchangeable

1727
01:28:03,400 --> 01:28:06,679
Speaker 1: of journalists say that they do a very or somewhat

1728
01:28:06,720 --> 01:28:09,000
Speaker 1: good job of serving as a watchdog over elected leaders.

1729
01:28:09,240 --> 01:28:12,559
Speaker 1: Only twenty nine percent of Americans agree. In fact, forty

1730
01:28:12,560 --> 01:28:15,639
Speaker 1: four percent the majority say that they don't. Same thing

1731
01:28:15,680 --> 01:28:18,880
Speaker 1: on giving a voice to the underrepresented. Forty six percent

1732
01:28:18,880 --> 01:28:21,360
Speaker 1: of journalists say they do a good job, only twenty

1733
01:28:21,360 --> 01:28:24,719
Speaker 1: four percent say that they do. Americans overwhelming the igli

1734
01:28:24,960 --> 01:28:27,439
Speaker 1: agree at forty five percent that they don't do a

1735
01:28:27,479 --> 01:28:30,559
Speaker 1: good job, a very or somewhat bad job of doing so.

1736
01:28:30,960 --> 01:28:34,439
Speaker 1: Same thing on managing or correcting misinformation, Forty three percent

1737
01:28:34,479 --> 01:28:36,679
Speaker 1: of journalists say they do a good job, twenty five

1738
01:28:36,720 --> 01:28:39,400
Speaker 1: percent of Americans say they do a good job. Fifty

1739
01:28:39,439 --> 01:28:42,080
Speaker 1: one percent say they do a somewhat or very bad

1740
01:28:42,160 --> 01:28:45,200
Speaker 1: job of doing so. So what is the overwhelming trend

1741
01:28:45,240 --> 01:28:48,680
Speaker 1: that emerges from this? Journalists think very highly of themselves,

1742
01:28:48,840 --> 01:28:51,720
Speaker 1: Americans not so much. They pretty much are reverse on

1743
01:28:51,760 --> 01:28:55,160
Speaker 1: the question of every single issue. Let's put this up

1744
01:28:55,160 --> 01:28:57,759
Speaker 1: there on the screen too. Fifty five percent of journalists

1745
01:28:57,800 --> 01:29:01,600
Speaker 1: say that every side does not all always deserve equal coverage,

1746
01:29:01,720 --> 01:29:04,479
Speaker 1: greater than their share who say that journalists should always

1747
01:29:04,479 --> 01:29:08,599
Speaker 1: strive to side give every side equal coverage. So I

1748
01:29:08,680 --> 01:29:11,000
Speaker 1: really think that that is also revealing, which is that

1749
01:29:11,280 --> 01:29:14,519
Speaker 1: journalists say you should always strive to give every side

1750
01:29:14,520 --> 01:29:18,040
Speaker 1: equal coverage, but every side does not always deserve equal coverage.

1751
01:29:18,040 --> 01:29:22,040
Speaker 1: That's according to Americans. I'm somewhat torn on that because

1752
01:29:22,240 --> 01:29:25,320
Speaker 1: I can understand what the American people mean whenever they

1753
01:29:25,360 --> 01:29:27,599
Speaker 1: say every side does not deserve equal coverage, But when

1754
01:29:27,600 --> 01:29:31,440
Speaker 1: it gets put into practice, that's because this, okay, that's

1755
01:29:31,479 --> 01:29:33,840
Speaker 1: a complicated one, because it's like, what do you mean

1756
01:29:33,880 --> 01:29:36,240
Speaker 1: by that, because like if you're talking about facts or

1757
01:29:36,360 --> 01:29:39,920
Speaker 1: for the classic example is climate, Okay, you should not

1758
01:29:39,960 --> 01:29:42,720
Speaker 1: give equal weight to the three people out there who

1759
01:29:42,760 --> 01:29:45,800
Speaker 1: still deny that the climate crisis is real versus you know,

1760
01:29:46,040 --> 01:29:49,240
Speaker 1: the ninety nine percent of scientists who are on the

1761
01:29:49,240 --> 01:29:51,599
Speaker 1: other side of that. So you shouldn't give equal weight

1762
01:29:52,040 --> 01:29:55,559
Speaker 1: to a side or like election denial, right, you shouldn't

1763
01:29:55,600 --> 01:29:59,679
Speaker 1: give equal side to like d Dinesh D'suz's two thousand mules,

1764
01:30:00,080 --> 01:30:03,519
Speaker 1: to the actual facts and reality. So when it comes

1765
01:30:03,560 --> 01:30:05,840
Speaker 1: to a factual issue, and I know that this is

1766
01:30:05,920 --> 01:30:08,760
Speaker 1: fraught because sometimes even the facts are very much in dispute, Well,

1767
01:30:08,760 --> 01:30:10,880
Speaker 1: when there's a clear factual issue, no, I don't think

1768
01:30:10,880 --> 01:30:15,200
Speaker 1: that Denesh Jesuza deserves like equal coverage or an equal

1769
01:30:15,280 --> 01:30:19,040
Speaker 1: hearing to the reality of the election was not stolen.

1770
01:30:19,280 --> 01:30:20,920
Speaker 1: When it comes to things that are a matter of

1771
01:30:21,280 --> 01:30:24,439
Speaker 1: values and opinion, that's a different deal. And I think

1772
01:30:24,479 --> 01:30:27,120
Speaker 1: that's you know, and I also you know, I also

1773
01:30:27,240 --> 01:30:29,600
Speaker 1: don't have an issue with I really actually don't have

1774
01:30:29,640 --> 01:30:31,759
Speaker 1: an issue with partisan coverage. What I have an issue

1775
01:30:31,760 --> 01:30:34,519
Speaker 1: with is when people pretend like they're neutral and their

1776
01:30:34,560 --> 01:30:37,160
Speaker 1: actual partisans and they hide the ball. That's my issue.

1777
01:30:37,200 --> 01:30:40,760
Speaker 1: So that to me, that one is a little more complicated,

1778
01:30:40,960 --> 01:30:43,559
Speaker 1: and you know, the question, it's hard in a poll

1779
01:30:43,680 --> 01:30:46,080
Speaker 1: question to get at some of the complexities of how

1780
01:30:46,120 --> 01:30:48,639
Speaker 1: you think about that news coverage. I actually thought one

1781
01:30:48,640 --> 01:30:52,519
Speaker 1: of the more notable numbers here that you pointed to

1782
01:30:53,160 --> 01:30:56,880
Speaker 1: is the lowest marks given by the public were for

1783
01:30:57,320 --> 01:31:03,679
Speaker 1: giving voice to underrepresented groups of people. And I think

1784
01:31:03,720 --> 01:31:08,720
Speaker 1: that that stem that failure clearly manifested and understood by

1785
01:31:08,720 --> 01:31:11,160
Speaker 1: the American people, and also journalists didn't even give themselves

1786
01:31:11,160 --> 01:31:14,240
Speaker 1: great marks on this one either. I mean, this comes

1787
01:31:14,240 --> 01:31:16,640
Speaker 1: directly out of the fact that they hire from this

1788
01:31:16,800 --> 01:31:20,360
Speaker 1: like elite monoclass complete classes and so yeah, so if

1789
01:31:20,360 --> 01:31:24,160
Speaker 1: you want to give voice to other people and viewpoints

1790
01:31:24,160 --> 01:31:28,200
Speaker 1: that aren't typically reflected in elite media, hire from different

1791
01:31:28,439 --> 01:31:31,320
Speaker 1: parts of the country, hire from different education backgrounds, hire

1792
01:31:31,400 --> 01:31:34,479
Speaker 1: from different class statuses, and you'll have a much better

1793
01:31:34,520 --> 01:31:39,240
Speaker 1: shot at having a much broader and more representative view

1794
01:31:39,280 --> 01:31:41,200
Speaker 1: of what actually is going on in the country and

1795
01:31:41,240 --> 01:31:45,320
Speaker 1: how people feel about it. This was also interesting to me.

1796
01:31:45,439 --> 01:31:48,719
Speaker 1: Among the journalists, more say that misinformation is a problem

1797
01:31:48,760 --> 01:31:51,360
Speaker 1: than that press freedom is a problem. So seventy one

1798
01:31:51,439 --> 01:31:54,559
Speaker 1: percent say misinformation is a problem and only fifty seven

1799
01:31:54,640 --> 01:31:56,599
Speaker 1: percent say press room is a problem. The other thing

1800
01:31:56,640 --> 01:31:59,760
Speaker 1: that was interesting to me is that many more of

1801
01:31:59,800 --> 01:32:03,760
Speaker 1: the journals said that basically like fake news and misinformation

1802
01:32:03,880 --> 01:32:06,479
Speaker 1: is an issue than us adults. So seventy one percent

1803
01:32:06,520 --> 01:32:09,880
Speaker 1: say misinformation a problem for the journals, only fifty percent

1804
01:32:09,920 --> 01:32:11,679
Speaker 1: of adults. It's still a lot of people, but only

1805
01:32:12,600 --> 01:32:16,320
Speaker 1: considerably fewer adults feel like misinformation is the big problem.

1806
01:32:16,320 --> 01:32:19,360
Speaker 1: So you also see a disconnect in terms of even

1807
01:32:19,400 --> 01:32:21,920
Speaker 1: their assessment of what are the problems and the threats

1808
01:32:21,920 --> 01:32:26,240
Speaker 1: to journal to like good journalism. The journalists see that

1809
01:32:26,400 --> 01:32:29,080
Speaker 1: threat very differently than the American people do. Yeah, the

1810
01:32:29,080 --> 01:32:31,880
Speaker 1: Americans are like, you're the fake news, You're the inforation,

1811
01:32:32,320 --> 01:32:35,080
Speaker 1: Like that's the problem. I don't know. I mean, look,

1812
01:32:35,120 --> 01:32:38,240
Speaker 1: this is just data which is just so transparently obvious.

1813
01:32:38,280 --> 01:32:41,120
Speaker 1: If anything, I think it probably overstates the support for

1814
01:32:41,280 --> 01:32:43,160
Speaker 1: a lot of these things. Yeah, you know, yeah, I

1815
01:32:43,160 --> 01:32:45,759
Speaker 1: mean if you really looked at it. Also in partisan breakdown,

1816
01:32:46,200 --> 01:32:48,840
Speaker 1: I think the most telling is whenever you look at

1817
01:32:48,840 --> 01:32:52,479
Speaker 1: it in terms of the number of primary Democrats who

1818
01:32:52,600 --> 01:32:55,600
Speaker 1: trust the news media versus Republicans, because you know, Republicans

1819
01:32:55,640 --> 01:32:58,559
Speaker 1: don't even trust Fox News. But let's just be honest,

1820
01:32:58,640 --> 01:33:02,240
Speaker 1: a lot of older Democrats in this country love and

1821
01:33:02,400 --> 01:33:05,960
Speaker 1: deeply trust the New York Times and MSNBC and CNN,

1822
01:33:06,000 --> 01:33:07,439
Speaker 1: which is part of the problem. You have a deep

1823
01:33:07,479 --> 01:33:11,320
Speaker 1: institutional capture of what exactly they are, the lens in

1824
01:33:11,320 --> 01:33:13,120
Speaker 1: which they're going to coverage, and of no wonder they're

1825
01:33:13,120 --> 01:33:16,040
Speaker 1: not gonna have class coverage, and then that bleeds into everything.

1826
01:33:16,080 --> 01:33:19,360
Speaker 1: That's how they use the word LATINX in their coverage,

1827
01:33:19,479 --> 01:33:22,479
Speaker 1: and yet actual Latinos are like, hey, we don't say

1828
01:33:22,479 --> 01:33:25,879
Speaker 1: that and we don't like it. So this bleeds into everything.

1829
01:33:25,960 --> 01:33:29,160
Speaker 1: It has major partisan ramifications, obviously. I mean, this is

1830
01:33:29,160 --> 01:33:31,160
Speaker 1: why I think our show is even successful is because

1831
01:33:31,200 --> 01:33:34,320
Speaker 1: these idiots have been doing the game this way for

1832
01:33:34,360 --> 01:33:36,240
Speaker 1: so long, and I honestly don't think it's gonna change.

1833
01:33:36,240 --> 01:33:39,240
Speaker 1: I think it's just so captured by this insanity that

1834
01:33:39,320 --> 01:33:42,280
Speaker 1: it can't reverse. Look at the Washington Post. We covered

1835
01:33:42,280 --> 01:33:46,599
Speaker 1: it for that woman, Felicia Samnez, and outwardly, you know,

1836
01:33:46,880 --> 01:33:51,120
Speaker 1: flamed her colleagues, outwardly defied her bosses, and it took

1837
01:33:51,120 --> 01:33:53,920
Speaker 1: a week for her to be fired. Taylor Lorenz is

1838
01:33:54,040 --> 01:33:57,679
Speaker 1: a liar, has materially lied in the pages of their paper,

1839
01:33:58,000 --> 01:34:01,040
Speaker 1: and they don't they even basically admit to it, and

1840
01:34:01,120 --> 01:34:04,519
Speaker 1: she's not fired. So that's where the industry is trending.

1841
01:34:04,560 --> 01:34:08,400
Speaker 1: They have these people completely at hostage, and even the

1842
01:34:08,400 --> 01:34:11,680
Speaker 1: ones who don't agree are held silent because they're too

1843
01:34:11,720 --> 01:34:13,880
Speaker 1: afraid in order to fall under the gun and be

1844
01:34:13,960 --> 01:34:16,640
Speaker 1: harassed publicly on social media. So I just think it's

1845
01:34:16,680 --> 01:34:18,320
Speaker 1: gonna get worse, and I have no problem with that.

1846
01:34:18,520 --> 01:34:20,880
Speaker 1: There was There's something else interesting in this data, which

1847
01:34:20,960 --> 01:34:25,360
Speaker 1: was an age divide betwe how journalists themselves feel about

1848
01:34:25,400 --> 01:34:27,840
Speaker 1: their job. So three quarters of journalists sixty five and

1849
01:34:27,920 --> 01:34:30,679
Speaker 1: older feel that their job has a very or somewhat

1850
01:34:30,720 --> 01:34:34,960
Speaker 1: positive impact on their own emotional well being. Only twenty

1851
01:34:35,040 --> 01:34:38,840
Speaker 1: nine percent of journalists under thirty feel the same. So

1852
01:34:38,960 --> 01:34:42,479
Speaker 1: older journalists feel like they feel good about what they're doing.

1853
01:34:42,600 --> 01:34:46,800
Speaker 1: They feel like this job is positive and the atmosphere

1854
01:34:46,840 --> 01:34:50,679
Speaker 1: is generally good young journalists do not feel that way

1855
01:34:50,880 --> 01:34:53,680
Speaker 1: at all, And I do think part of that is

1856
01:34:53,800 --> 01:34:58,520
Speaker 1: these like you know, culture war battles that are overwhelmingly

1857
01:34:58,760 --> 01:35:03,439
Speaker 1: coming from younger demographics. And you also have a split

1858
01:35:03,560 --> 01:35:07,080
Speaker 1: on like older journalists are much more worried about press

1859
01:35:07,120 --> 01:35:10,400
Speaker 1: freedom versus the younger journalists, which are much more worried

1860
01:35:10,439 --> 01:35:13,160
Speaker 1: about like the misinformation thing. So you do have like

1861
01:35:13,400 --> 01:35:18,000
Speaker 1: a transition happening within news organizations too, about the way

1862
01:35:18,080 --> 01:35:20,839
Speaker 1: that these people are approaching their jobs. Absolutely, some well

1863
01:35:20,960 --> 01:35:25,200
Speaker 1: announcements that we're excited about here at Breaking Points. So

1864
01:35:25,240 --> 01:35:26,599
Speaker 1: first of all, I don't know if you guys saw this,

1865
01:35:26,800 --> 01:35:30,719
Speaker 1: but we actually got some favorable press coverage here Breaking

1866
01:35:30,760 --> 01:35:33,000
Speaker 1: Joints a very nice write up in the New Yorker.

1867
01:35:33,040 --> 01:35:35,200
Speaker 1: Go ahead and throw this up on the screen. This

1868
01:35:35,280 --> 01:35:37,920
Speaker 1: is from cal Newport and he uses as kind of

1869
01:35:37,920 --> 01:35:40,639
Speaker 1: a case study for what he describes as the rise

1870
01:35:40,680 --> 01:35:43,439
Speaker 1: of the internet's creative middle class. And he's talking about

1871
01:35:43,439 --> 01:35:46,439
Speaker 1: there was this sort of theory of a thousand true fans, right,

1872
01:35:46,560 --> 01:35:48,720
Speaker 1: being able just came from Kevin Kelly being able to

1873
01:35:49,080 --> 01:35:51,559
Speaker 1: you know, support this sort of like middle tier of creators.

1874
01:35:51,600 --> 01:35:53,720
Speaker 1: And so he actually came into the studio and saw

1875
01:35:53,760 --> 01:35:57,800
Speaker 1: our operation, and he does a good job in this

1876
01:35:57,920 --> 01:36:01,479
Speaker 1: piece of capturing the data vibe of the show and

1877
01:36:01,520 --> 01:36:04,759
Speaker 1: the overall ethos. So it's always a little nerve wracking

1878
01:36:04,800 --> 01:36:08,479
Speaker 1: when you engage with journalists and engage with the mainstream press.

1879
01:36:08,520 --> 01:36:10,760
Speaker 1: But this actually came out really, really well, and we're

1880
01:36:10,840 --> 01:36:12,720
Speaker 1: very pleased. When I first saw the email and it

1881
01:36:12,800 --> 01:36:16,839
Speaker 1: said New Yorker Profile Breaking Points, I was like, oh yeah,

1882
01:36:16,880 --> 01:36:19,080
Speaker 1: But then I was like, oh, it's cow. So I

1883
01:36:19,240 --> 01:36:21,439
Speaker 1: know Calport and Newport a little bit. I read his

1884
01:36:21,479 --> 01:36:24,519
Speaker 1: books actually for years. Actually, right before I started Rising

1885
01:36:24,640 --> 01:36:27,400
Speaker 1: with You, I was on vacation and I read cal

1886
01:36:27,520 --> 01:36:29,280
Speaker 1: Newport's book Deep Work, which is one of the best

1887
01:36:29,280 --> 01:36:32,240
Speaker 1: books I've ever read. He wrote another book called was

1888
01:36:32,280 --> 01:36:34,879
Speaker 1: like the War on Email, or like why we shouldn't

1889
01:36:34,880 --> 01:36:38,719
Speaker 1: be using email? He famously as competitive, but I already

1890
01:36:38,720 --> 01:36:40,040
Speaker 1: am on board. Actually we had him on the show.

1891
01:36:40,080 --> 01:36:42,080
Speaker 1: I think you were not here for that segment. I

1892
01:36:42,160 --> 01:36:44,519
Speaker 1: think Marshall was in at that time, but we interviewed him.

1893
01:36:44,640 --> 01:36:46,799
Speaker 1: He was here on Breaking Points. He was like vaguely

1894
01:36:46,840 --> 01:36:50,080
Speaker 1: familiar with the concept and so anyway, so he's the

1895
01:36:50,160 --> 01:36:52,680
Speaker 1: one who emailed and I knew cal was a good guy.

1896
01:36:52,760 --> 01:36:54,800
Speaker 1: I'd read some of his previous work. I trusted some

1897
01:36:54,880 --> 01:36:56,720
Speaker 1: of his stuff. So we invited him here to the

1898
01:36:56,760 --> 01:36:59,080
Speaker 1: studio and he kind of, you know, profiled us in

1899
01:36:59,120 --> 01:37:01,760
Speaker 1: the context of this, and I think what we're proud of,

1900
01:37:01,920 --> 01:37:04,880
Speaker 1: and me in particular, is that this just does show

1901
01:37:04,920 --> 01:37:08,000
Speaker 1: you a way of an alternative funding model which can work,

1902
01:37:08,200 --> 01:37:10,559
Speaker 1: can scale. It's funny too, because while he was here,

1903
01:37:10,880 --> 01:37:12,439
Speaker 1: he was like, well, you guys gonna expand, and we

1904
01:37:12,479 --> 01:37:14,120
Speaker 1: were really weighing it. We didn't know at the time,

1905
01:37:14,400 --> 01:37:17,719
Speaker 1: but we really did strike gold with our subscriber partnership model,

1906
01:37:17,880 --> 01:37:20,080
Speaker 1: which is we don't know in your content. You do

1907
01:37:20,240 --> 01:37:22,880
Speaker 1: whatever you want, We'll pay you and we support you.

1908
01:37:23,200 --> 01:37:25,800
Speaker 1: Put it on our channel, you promote whatever the hell

1909
01:37:25,880 --> 01:37:27,800
Speaker 1: you like. Oh you have a substack, great, grow it.

1910
01:37:28,280 --> 01:37:31,400
Speaker 1: It's all win win. You have a channel like James Lee,

1911
01:37:31,640 --> 01:37:34,160
Speaker 1: subscribe please. I want you to go and watch him,

1912
01:37:35,040 --> 01:37:38,560
Speaker 1: Max Alvarez, Ryan, all of these people, Marshall's interviews like

1913
01:37:38,720 --> 01:37:42,240
Speaker 1: these just enhance the product. Everything kind of grows up together.

1914
01:37:42,360 --> 01:37:44,960
Speaker 1: So really considering and discovering that model, even after he

1915
01:37:45,040 --> 01:37:47,200
Speaker 1: was here, which was several months ago, and then watching

1916
01:37:47,280 --> 01:37:48,920
Speaker 1: it in the kind in the context of this, I

1917
01:37:48,960 --> 01:37:51,479
Speaker 1: think it just does show you the future. And look,

1918
01:37:51,560 --> 01:37:53,800
Speaker 1: I'm still really excited. And I know I said we

1919
01:37:53,880 --> 01:37:57,439
Speaker 1: were gonna have AIG announcement, but paperwork got involved. We

1920
01:37:57,520 --> 01:38:00,439
Speaker 1: will have tickets on sale for our road show as

1921
01:38:00,520 --> 01:38:04,720
Speaker 1: soon as the lawyers will allow it. So there we go. Yeah,

1922
01:38:04,840 --> 01:38:07,120
Speaker 1: there was a moment when cal was here when he

1923
01:38:07,240 --> 01:38:10,120
Speaker 1: asked his leg so, what's like your exit strategy and

1924
01:38:10,200 --> 01:38:12,840
Speaker 1: we're we both of us sort of like what well,

1925
01:38:12,880 --> 01:38:14,400
Speaker 1: because he was like, oh, why don't you just build

1926
01:38:14,439 --> 01:38:16,519
Speaker 1: it up and take some cash and then and sell it.

1927
01:38:16,560 --> 01:38:19,080
Speaker 1: And we were like, I don't really have not what

1928
01:38:19,200 --> 01:38:21,960
Speaker 1: we were Yeah, we're not why we're here, not at

1929
01:38:22,000 --> 01:38:24,040
Speaker 1: all why we're here. I hope that comes through to you, guys.

1930
01:38:24,120 --> 01:38:27,400
Speaker 1: That really genuinely, we love doing the show, we love

1931
01:38:27,439 --> 01:38:29,880
Speaker 1: hearing from you, We love trying to come up with

1932
01:38:30,000 --> 01:38:32,720
Speaker 1: new ways to deliver a better product and you know,

1933
01:38:33,080 --> 01:38:35,640
Speaker 1: a broader product and have on the ground. That's what

1934
01:38:36,040 --> 01:38:39,320
Speaker 1: really motivates us here. And so it was cool to

1935
01:38:39,400 --> 01:38:42,000
Speaker 1: see you know that captured in this piece a little bit.

1936
01:38:42,120 --> 01:38:44,240
Speaker 1: Yeah he got it, Yeah, he did it. It came

1937
01:38:44,280 --> 01:38:45,720
Speaker 1: through in the piece that he sort of that he

1938
01:38:45,840 --> 01:38:47,040
Speaker 1: sort of got what we were doing here.