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Speaker 1: This is breaking new loose from Bloomberg. Last month was

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fourteen thousand. It is revised under one

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand, eighty nine thousand positive eighty nine thousand, So

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Speaker 1: I've got one hundred and forty two thousand is the

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Speaker 1: jobs report and the two month revision is eighty six.

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Speaker 1: So Paul, do the math with me. Six takeaway one

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Speaker 1: who is thirteen eight is fifty one thousand, yep, I

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Speaker 1: think fifty six thousand, excuse me, fifty six thousand positive

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Speaker 1: is the summation with the revision. We job on along here, folks,

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Speaker 1: to give Neil Dutta time to look at these statistics.

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Speaker 2: Neil, what does this signal for Chairman Powell?

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Speaker 3: Get going? That's what it says, go fifty with a

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Speaker 3: promise to do as much as necessary to stabilize labor

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Speaker 3: market conditions.

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Speaker 4: So again, Neil, I mean, and you think about these

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Speaker 4: numbers and the revisions as to almost just summarizing here

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Speaker 4: the labor market, I guess it kind of falls into

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Speaker 4: what we were just saying many minutes ago, not nearly

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Speaker 4: as strong as people think it is.

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Speaker 5: No, I mean, the.

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Speaker 3: Three month trend on non farm private pails is running

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Speaker 3: below one hundred thousand. I mean, that's not a good number.

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Speaker 3: You know, that's barely break even, and I think it's

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Speaker 3: arguably actually worse than that because one of the reasons

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Speaker 3: why the number even looked as good as it did

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Speaker 3: is because we saw an uptake in construction employment among

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Speaker 3: I think civil engineer contractors. And so that's not going

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Speaker 3: to last because everything we know about construction right now

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Speaker 3: is that units under construction are under constructure collapsing. So

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Speaker 3: why are we hiring all these people to build one

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Speaker 3: exactly that That implies a margin squeeze for builders, which

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Speaker 3: I don't think they can tolerate right now. So I

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Speaker 3: think it's the goods producing side. I mean Tom mentioned benfacturing.

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Speaker 3: I think that's notable because a lot of people were

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Speaker 3: thinking maybe you'd see some uptaking manufacturing because of the

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Speaker 3: unwind of the retooling.

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Speaker 2: It just didn't happen.

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Speaker 3: Right on the good side of the economy's week, cyclically

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Speaker 3: sensitive industries are sluggish, and you know, this is all

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Speaker 3: about the FED trying to create a handoff from income

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Speaker 3: lead growth to credit led growth. That's what this is about.

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Speaker 3: So they need to keep cutting until the credits active

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Speaker 3: area of the economy turn.

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Speaker 2: Joining us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: Neil dotta, we are commercial free to the nine o'clock hour.

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Speaker 1: Claudia sam Mark Zandi will join in a moment. Ben

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Speaker 1: Ladler will join us on the equity market reaction in

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Speaker 1: the view forward here Later in these twenty minutes, futures

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Speaker 1: at negative seventeen, the vixers A twenty two level comes

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Speaker 1: in nicely twenty point seven six. Major bond market adjustments

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Speaker 1: make it eight basis points. Two year yield three point

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Speaker 1: sixty six thirty year bond well under four percent, three

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Speaker 1: point nine eight percent, ten year yield three points sixty

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Speaker 1: seven percent. Neil, I want you to frame out for

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Speaker 1: us what inflation will do given a depressed GDP in

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Speaker 1: the job market, moving the second derivative here is moving

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Speaker 1: to a worser space. What does inflation then do further disinflation.

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Speaker 3: I mean absolently, I think so. I mean if you

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Speaker 3: look at core goods, not housing services, and housing rents,

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Speaker 3: I mean those are those are the three ways to

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Speaker 3: slice the inflation data. The entire shortfall relative to the

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Speaker 3: FEDS target is in housing rents, which we know will

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Speaker 3: continue to normalize given the lagged You know sort of

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Speaker 3: nature of that indicator relative to market based rents. Everything

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Speaker 3: else is basically normalized. So you know again, I mean,

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Speaker 3: what's the upside risk for inflation if growth is running

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Speaker 3: below potential and the momentum under the unemployment rate is higher.

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Speaker 3: I mean that's kind of it's kind of I mean,

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Speaker 3: unit labor costs are running basically flat for the last year,

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Speaker 3: so there's no more of an inflationary impulse coming out

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Speaker 3: of the job market. That story is completely over, and

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Speaker 3: the FED continues to run a very very restricted policy stance.

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Speaker 4: Well, Paul, get one more in here, and Neil, and

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Speaker 4: you know, the unemployment rate, just for those that are

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Speaker 4: gonna be watching the headlines, stay steady at four point

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Speaker 4: two percent here, right in line with expectations. What does

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Speaker 4: the FED think about an unemployment rate of four point

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Speaker 4: two percent? Do you think?

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Speaker 3: I don't think they should think about an unemployment rate

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Speaker 3: of four point two percent. I think they should think

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Speaker 3: about what's gone on over the last six months.

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Speaker 2: Here you going, what's gone out?

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Speaker 1: That's absolutely Neildudda, I know you got a publish, will

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Speaker 1: feature that out on Twitter.

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Speaker 2: Neil Dudda with Ron Mack will publish.

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Speaker 1: We thank him for careful market economic analysis. So now

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Speaker 1: bring you Claudia S'm chief economists New Century Advisors, and

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Speaker 1: doctor Mark Zandi, chief economists at Moody's. We had them

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Speaker 1: on here, oh thirty or sixty days ago, can't remember.

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Speaker 1: It was just lights out, great, great analysis, Claudia. I

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Speaker 1: want to get this out of the way so we

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Speaker 1: can move on to the real Claudia, Sam, I'm sick

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Speaker 1: of the palm recession. Pinata, Can you just give us

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Speaker 1: an update without tire and feathering your reputation? Are we

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Speaker 1: close to a recession? Doctor somem?

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Speaker 5: So they increase the unemployment rate is in a range

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Speaker 5: where we have historically been in recessions, right, But that's

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Speaker 5: a history, that's a past.

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Speaker 6: We're not in a recession right now.

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Speaker 5: But we do have a weakening labor market, right, So

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Speaker 5: that's the important takeaway.

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Speaker 6: But like, not a recession right now, but a risk

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Speaker 6: as risk.

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Speaker 2: And what I remember from two thousand and eight is

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Speaker 2: a Zandy rule.

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Speaker 1: There's a Psam rule, but there's also the Zandy rule,

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Speaker 1: which is to be optimistic about America, Mark Zandy, if

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Speaker 1: we get the deck of cards, I hear from Neil

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Speaker 1: and others in you frankly at Moodies as well. Can

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Speaker 1: corporations adjust and sustain off of a lower nominal GDP

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Speaker 1: decent revenue and decent earnings or do you just suggest

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Speaker 1: everything goes.

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Speaker 7: Down, Tom, I think they're doing just fine. I mean,

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Speaker 7: looking at corporate earnings, they feel pretty good. I mean,

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Speaker 7: through Q two of twenty twenty four, double digit ear

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Speaker 7: or ear growth, and you know, expectations of analysts always

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Speaker 7: are on the high side, but they're still pretty good

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Speaker 7: as well. So I think the economy is doing fine

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Speaker 7: and producing enough enough revenue growth to keep profitability going strong.

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Speaker 7: So yeah, I'm not worried about that. And you know,

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Speaker 7: just broadly, yeh, you know, I'm all on board with

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Speaker 7: the view that the BET should be cutting rates and

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Speaker 7: normalizing them very quickly. But today's report I thought pretty

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Speaker 7: much down the strike zone. I mean, you know, the

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Speaker 7: kind of right underlying job growth is one hundred and

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Speaker 7: one hundred and fifty k that's kind of where you

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Speaker 7: want it. Four point two percent unemployment, that's kind of

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Speaker 7: where you want it. You saw a tick up an

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Speaker 7: hour's work per week, that's, you know, feels pretty good.

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Speaker 7: Wage growth is almost exactly where you want it. I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 7: you can just put hairs. Come on, what are we

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Speaker 7: going to say this? This is a good report, this

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Speaker 7: was this felt like a really good report to me.

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Speaker 4: Is it to the point there marked where the FED

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Speaker 4: can stay at twenty five basis points or is this

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Speaker 4: something that some are suggesting may push them to a

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Speaker 4: fifty basis point cut in September.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I think it's twenty five. I mean, I would

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Speaker 7: expect the FED to cut fifty only in emergency if

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Speaker 7: you know, markets are really evaporating or there really was

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Speaker 7: some serious deterioration in the economy, job market. But I

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Speaker 7: don't see any of that. So I think it's a

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Speaker 7: core point, and there's you know, I think there's good

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Speaker 7: arguments to cut and cut in a consistent way, but

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Speaker 7: I don't think we need to dramatically cut all at once,

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Speaker 7: because there's a lot of uncertainty as to reasonable uncertainty

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Speaker 7: as to you know, where the FED should be going here.

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Speaker 7: What is the so called equilibrium federal funds rate? What's

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Speaker 7: the rate where policies either supporting or restraining growth? That

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Speaker 7: is very uncertain, And I think given that, I go

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Speaker 7: obiously unless push to do otherwise, And in this report.

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Speaker 7: I don't see any reason to feel like they have

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Speaker 7: to move very quickly.

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Speaker 6: Here, Claudia.

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Speaker 4: Over the weekend, you'll be at some fancy cocktail party

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Speaker 4: and somebody's can come up to you and say, hey, Claudia,

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Speaker 4: how's the US labor market. What's your response?

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Speaker 6: It's not headed in the right direction. This is the

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Speaker 6: thing I am most concerned about. Again.

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Speaker 5: Just you know the numbers, like the numbers themselves. Okay, fine,

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Speaker 5: It's just things have been slowing and we can and

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Speaker 5: not because I am you know, hair on fire, that

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Speaker 5: are recessions around the corner. I'm really concerned that we're

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Speaker 5: losing a slipping away of a.

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Speaker 6: Really good labor market.

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Speaker 5: And we need this as good as it gets and

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Speaker 5: there should be nothing weaker than what it takes the

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Speaker 5: get inflation down. And we are like the train is

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Speaker 5: still moving and is not in the right direction.

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Speaker 1: I mean to both of you, and then, folks, we've

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Speaker 1: got huge academic caliber here. Mark, I'm going to go

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Speaker 1: to you first, and then Claudia. Is the same question

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Speaker 1: the ECB is trying to teach us about being non measured.

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Speaker 1: Are we slaves? Mark Sandy to a green spanny and

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Speaker 1: measured approach, careful, careful, careful. Why can't we go X

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Speaker 1: beeps or why beeps or Z beeps and see what happens?

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Speaker 1: Why can't we do that?

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Speaker 7: Mark Sandy, Well, I don't know Tom that you need to.

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Speaker 7: I mean, if the you know, the labor market was

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Speaker 7: falling apart, yeah, absolutely, If you know financial system was

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Speaker 7: in turmoil, yeah, i'd move quit more quickly. But you know,

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Speaker 7: the economies, it's throttling back. But that's exactly what you'd

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Speaker 7: want to see, to throttle back it, for it to

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Speaker 7: throttle back here it's been growing too strongly and it's

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Speaker 7: kind of coming right into where you want it, and

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Speaker 7: no reason to to move quickly otherwise. And again I

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Speaker 7: keep going back to I don't think anyone knows reasonably

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Speaker 7: so where we're headed here. You know, it feels like

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Speaker 7: I feel like the equilibrium rate is higher than it

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Speaker 7: has been typically. Uh, and it's moving, so you know,

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Speaker 7: why not go cautiously and you know, if things start

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Speaker 7: to really deteriorate, if you know, we do start to

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Speaker 7: see really significant job loss or or even very weak

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Speaker 7: job growth. Hey, one other quick point I wanted to make, please,

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Speaker 7: you know the August data is always weak. You know,

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Speaker 7: we get very low response rates, initial response rates in

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Speaker 7: the month of August, I think for obvious reasons, people

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Speaker 7: are on vacation, and we always get an initial print

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Speaker 7: that's on the sauce side. And almost invariably, if you

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Speaker 7: cast me back a year from now, we're going to

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Speaker 7: be talking about upward efficients to the data. So you know,

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Speaker 7: you just have to take that into consideration.

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Speaker 1: Claudia, I got a scree month moving average of one

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixteen thousand, three hundred and thirty three one

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Speaker 1: one six three three three. I'm sorry, but that's way

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Speaker 1: below anything I've seen as a normal rate of unemployment

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Speaker 1: if you take the screen month moving average Jason Firm

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Speaker 1: and I'll help out on this at Harvard. I'm sorry, Claudia,

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Speaker 1: is measured in place or is this a fed that's

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Speaker 1: got to go and hoc forward?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think again, it's like looking at how the

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Speaker 5: variables are changing. The unemployment rate has been rising. Yes,

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Speaker 5: it is still relatively low historically.

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Speaker 6: We also have an older workforce.

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Speaker 5: Four point three percent is not that far from and

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Speaker 5: experienced and esteemed right, and so there's no magic number

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Speaker 5: with the unemployment rate. It's watching the dynamics. It's watching

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Speaker 5: the change and knowing that once that changes in place.

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Speaker 5: The FED has been trying for two years to cool

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Speaker 5: off the labor market. That's why the funds rate is

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Speaker 5: at five percent and other types of demand. Right, so, yes,

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Speaker 5: things are cooling off, and now it's like, okay, now

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Speaker 5: we need to slow.

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Speaker 6: We need to turn that around. We don't need that slowing.

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Speaker 6: So I think that changes everything.

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Speaker 2: Wonderful, Zamon Sandy with us right now. They move the

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Speaker 2: market higher.

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Speaker 1: Futures negative thirty now negative twelve, deterior in the Sweeney

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Speaker 1: yield two year yield from negative seven basis points down

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Speaker 1: to negative nine. Those levels three sixty five, two year,

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Speaker 1: three sixty eight, ten year, thirty.

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Speaker 2: Year bond hut or four percent. Paul you home shopping

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Speaker 2: this weekend.

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Speaker 4: I might be absolutely red headline crossing the Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 4: Traders pricing fifty percent chance of half point FED cut

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Speaker 4: this month, crossing the Bloomberg terminal, Mark Sandy. Given the

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Speaker 4: labor outlook here in some of the data we got today,

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Speaker 4: as it relates to total payrolls and wages, what's your

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Speaker 4: view of the US consumer here? How healthy or how

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Speaker 4: at risk is the US consumer, I.

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Speaker 7: Think and aggregate, you know, looking across all Americans, they're

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Speaker 7: continue to do their part. They're hanging tough. I mean,

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Speaker 7: the train is being driven by folks in the top

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Speaker 7: part of the income distribution. And you know, I don't know,

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Speaker 7: I don't think it's hyperperctly, but their financial situation is

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Speaker 7: probably as good as it's ever been. You know, got

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Speaker 7: a job, strong, real wage gains, They own stocks, stocks

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Speaker 7: or near record high zone home home vows or near

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Speaker 7: record highs. If they've got any debt at all, it's

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Speaker 7: a thirty or fifteen year or fixed rate mortgage locked

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Speaker 7: in And seems like everyone I talked to us mortgage

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Speaker 7: is at two and a half or three percent kind

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Speaker 7: of locked in. So I again, and in my by

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Speaker 7: my calculation, they still have some excess cash that they

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Speaker 7: build up during the pandemic when they couldn't spend that

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Speaker 7: they're spending down now. So I think they're fine. I

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Speaker 7: do think the soft spot obviously is lower income households.

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Speaker 7: They clearly are struggling. You know, they got nailed by

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Speaker 7: the high inflation. They took on a lot of debt

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Speaker 7: to supplement their income, to maintain their purchasing power. And

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Speaker 7: it's one thing when rates are low, but when rates

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Speaker 7: are really high. They mean, the credit card rate is

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Speaker 7: twenty two percent, a record high. That's very painful. They

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Speaker 7: don't own stocks, they don't own a home. They rent, so,

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Speaker 7: you know, very different kind of perspectives. But you know,

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Speaker 7: at the end of the day, it's the folks in

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Speaker 7: the top middle parts of the distribution that here we

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Speaker 7: are critical here.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, I can't keep up.

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Speaker 1: I tried to get John Williams on the show, Claudius,

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Speaker 1: Mark Sandy, John.

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Speaker 2: Williams, that would have been good.

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Speaker 1: New York Fed President John Williams says, now appropriate to

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Speaker 1: lower FED funds rate, Claudia, when you were studying this

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Speaker 1: in Michigan, this this this ex post lag Is this

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Speaker 1: unusual the way our FED is acting.

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Speaker 5: Yes, particularly in the way monetary policy is quote unquote

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Speaker 5: supposed to be done like in the theories, right, but

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Speaker 5: that's a very clean, not realistic state. I understand why

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Speaker 5: the FED when tools start breaking down and data don't

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Speaker 5: make as much sense, then you kind of you, you know,

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Speaker 5: crawl your way along and you want evidence. I think

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Speaker 5: this FED did lean into a very FED like tendency

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Speaker 5: of being super super cautious, and they have been kind

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Speaker 5: of greedy in terms of how much data they wanted

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Speaker 5: on inflation. And if I had to hear so many times.

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Speaker 5: We have the luxury of time because the labor market

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Speaker 5: is so strong, it's like, well, well guess what it

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Speaker 5: actually wasn't as strong, and so there's a cost. Like

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Speaker 5: they took time to get comfortable with inflation, but that

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Speaker 5: probably means they do not have time to get right.

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Speaker 6: Is the lever market really weakening?

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Speaker 5: Like they may need to recalibrate some and get going

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Speaker 5: I think would be the appropriate But.

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Speaker 6: This, this is really outside of their playbook. So I

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Speaker 6: understand why this is a hard case to make.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Xandy, your opiniata for the Gloom Crew, I mean

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Speaker 1: seven eight oh nine, you said, everybody shut up, We're

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Speaker 1: going to fix this Zandy pandemic. Everybody shut up, We're

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Speaker 1: going to fix this. Give us an optimistic touch here

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Speaker 1: on how America will clear these traumas post pandemic, Shinas

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Speaker 1: slowing down, Claudia Sam's cats are miserable. Mark Zandy, just

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Speaker 1: as directly as you can give us.

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Speaker 2: I need some.

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Speaker 1: Xandy optimism now, or I can't get through the weekend.

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Speaker 7: Really, I've got that reputation. I didn't know that I'm

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Speaker 7: that optimistic. Well look, uh just look at the numbers.

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Speaker 7: I mean, top four point two percent on employment. I mean, okay,

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Speaker 7: be nicer if it were four I'm I'm on board

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Speaker 7: with that. I mean, it's maybe on the soft side

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Speaker 7: of one point four point two percent unemployment. We're creating

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Speaker 7: a lot of jobs across lots of different industries and

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Speaker 7: have been for you know, quite some time. Inflation that's

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Speaker 7: back in the bottle almost no matter how you measure it.

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Speaker 7: So you know, we're growing at a potential. And by

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Speaker 7: the way, here's the thing that's really you know, makes

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Speaker 7: me encouraged. The economy's potential is very strong. I mean,

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Speaker 7: we're seeing a lot of labor force growth. Well that's

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Speaker 7: one of the that's the key reason why unemployment is

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Speaker 7: not tired here over the past year. That goes to immigration,

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Speaker 7: and you know there's a lot of costs there, but

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Speaker 7: the benefit obviously is the strong liver force growth. And

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Speaker 7: look at those productivity growth numbers, and you know, I

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Speaker 7: mean it's hard to argue that whether it's sustainable or not,

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Speaker 7: but it feels like there's a lot of good things

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Speaker 7: happening underneath all the business formation we beginning since the

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Speaker 7: pandemic hit. It's probably reaping benefit. And this is all

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Speaker 7: before AI kind of kicks in. So you add of

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Speaker 7: all the productivity gains, yeah, in the labor force growth,

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Speaker 7: and that's a strong growing economy and the FED. The

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Speaker 7: trick for the FED here is, you know, let the

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Speaker 7: take the foot off the brakes sufficiently to allow the

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Speaker 7: economy to grow at its higher potential. That's a very

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Speaker 7: different issue or problem. Demand we're evaporating. That's not what's

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Speaker 7: going on here. So you know, objectively, take a step

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Speaker 7: back and take a look around. This economy is good.

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Speaker 1: Paul, one quick question to Claudia sim because futures just

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Speaker 1: went green, which is a signal. Go Ben Ladler, so

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Speaker 1: quickly here Paul, go to Claudia. And then we got

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Speaker 1: to drag Ben Laidler in here.

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Speaker 4: Claudia, Sam, I mean again, how do you just when

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Speaker 4: you sit back, you've had a few minutes of the

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Speaker 4: digestis how's it fed? How do you think they're going

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Speaker 4: to digest these numbers today?

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Speaker 5: I think the payroll numbers are going to be the

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Speaker 5: concern and frankly, the piece of it that I found

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Speaker 5: most is concerning you are the July revision, the earlier revisions, right,

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Speaker 5: that's the hiring rate has gotten too low of a place,

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Speaker 5: and we're seeing it in the job gains.

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Speaker 6: And then to it.

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Speaker 5: You know, July was actually even a little worse than

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Speaker 5: we thought on the jobs number, and so that I

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Speaker 5: think that takes some pause.

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Speaker 2: She said, So I'm supposed to have dinner with Claudia

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Speaker 2: and Jackson Hole. You know what they served.

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Speaker 1: Elk and the health's food was venison. I mean there's

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Speaker 1: no fish or nothing, Claudia, some we got to go.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Claudia, Sam just nailing these revisions.

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Speaker 1: I want to want to mention Anna Wong as well

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg and Mark Zandy, thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: being where us really appreciate from Moody's his optimism on

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Speaker 1: the American economic experiment. He is the bull strategist who

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Speaker 1: has nailed the trip from twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 2: From Christmas Eve of twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 1: Ben Laidler joins us. Right now in this market, Ben Ladler,

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Speaker 1: are you going to cash?

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Speaker 2: No, I'm just busted.

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Speaker 8: My shops just killed my keyboard head. No, I think

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Speaker 8: this is a I think we're at the early innings

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Speaker 8: of the bull market. I think the FED cut, which

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Speaker 8: is just around the corner and which we're all sort

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Speaker 8: of naval gazing over, I think is the trigger for

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Speaker 8: this bull market to broaden, both by sector and by

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Speaker 8: and by geography. I think the data today probably a

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Speaker 8: little bit weaker than you know, bulls like I would

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Speaker 8: have liked, and it's probably a recipe for a little

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Speaker 8: bit more uncertainty. But bottom line, I don't think it

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Speaker 8: really changes the trajectory. I mean, this is an economy

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Speaker 8: that is slowing. We want it to slow to pull

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Speaker 8: forward those rate cuts. FED has a lot of room

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Speaker 8: to uh to cut here. I think that will stabilize

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Speaker 8: the US economy, and I think that would be very,

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Speaker 8: very bullish for the rest of the world.

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Speaker 2: He's from the United Kingdom.

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Speaker 1: We should properly introduce some Ben Ladler Bridesco PBI with

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Speaker 1: us right now, Paul Ben.

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Speaker 4: So again, Yeah, the same the same question I asked

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Speaker 4: Claudia some Ben is, how do you think the Federal

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Speaker 4: Reserve will digest this labor data today?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, so it's probably a little bit weaker than you

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Speaker 8: know I would have liked probably that they would have

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Speaker 8: liked me. I guess we'd all be looking for that

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Speaker 8: sort of goldilocks number that last month was was an aberration.

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Speaker 8: Last month probably wasn't an aberration, even though you know,

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Speaker 8: the numbers were revised down a little bit. Today, I

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Speaker 8: think they're probably leaning a little bit more towards fifty.

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Speaker 8: But I think, bottom line, you know, they're going to

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Speaker 8: get started. Inflation break evens are at two percent. They've

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Speaker 8: a lot of room to cut here if they feel

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Speaker 8: that they need. I would like to see them get started,

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Speaker 8: and I think the chances a fifty basis point cut

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Speaker 8: probably increased a little bit. But you know, I'm not

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Speaker 8: sweating the pace I think too much. I think, you know,

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Speaker 8: there's a lot of moving parts here. I think overall,

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Speaker 8: this is an economy which is which is slowing. But

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Speaker 8: you know, let's not lose some perspective here. I mean,

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Speaker 8: this is an economy that we just had a three

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Speaker 8: percent inflation GDP print last you know, last quarter, that's

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Speaker 8: nearly double potential GDP unemployment just over four percent. I mean,

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Speaker 8: we're coming from the start point is a very good.

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Speaker 4: Place, given that backdrop, ben given effect that we've got

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Speaker 4: Rachs likely coming down, got through a pretty solid earnings

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Speaker 4: period in Q two. What are the sectors at screenwall

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Speaker 4: for you guys.

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Speaker 8: I think the biggest call right now is not necessarily

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Speaker 8: the direction of the market, which I think is pretty

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Speaker 8: well set and you know, up and to the right.

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Speaker 8: I think it's more about the sectors you own and

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Speaker 8: which parts of the world you own. I think this

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Speaker 8: is a broadening ball market. I think Tech's being a

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Speaker 8: great place to be. It's nothing wrong with Tech, but

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Speaker 8: I think you know the bits of the world and

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Speaker 8: the sectors that are much more sensitive to these interest

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Speaker 8: rate cuts which are coming. It's not the US and

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Speaker 8: it's not Tech, it's basically everybody else. All there's are

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Speaker 8: the bits of the market that we've forgotten about for

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Speaker 8: the last ten years. That's I think where you know

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Speaker 8: you should be kicking the ties on right now.

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Speaker 1: Ben, I don't have Apple in front of me, but

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Speaker 1: you are way out front.

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Speaker 2: Twenty eighteen, twenty two, twenty three.

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Speaker 1: In all I'm here in Paul, you earn a lot

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Speaker 1: of death of big tech. I am Ben Ladler, the

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Speaker 1: Mag seven, the Mag eight, including Berkshire.

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Speaker 2: You still got to own them, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 8: I think so. You know, the earning numbers are decelerating,

437
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 8: but that's still you know, no one else comes even close.

438
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Speaker 8: You've got these fortress balance sheets, You've got these huge

439
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 8: profit margins. You know, with all that, I can more

440
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 8: than justify you know, the valuations. You know, but we

441
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 8: all know that they're posting strong growth. You know, the

442
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:24,199
Speaker 8: valuations are you know, already a premium numbers. That's not

443
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Speaker 8: I don't think where the surprise is going to come.

444
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 8: That's not where the sensitivity to low interest rates is

445
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 8: coming from. It's everybody else that has those shrivel profit

446
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 8: margins that has those you know, depressed earnings expectations, who've

447
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 8: just come out of an earnings recession where valuations are

448
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,640
Speaker 8: forty to fifty percent lower. That's where I think you're

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00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 8: going to get the bank of your buck in this

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00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 8: sort of broadening ball market and potential changing leadership.

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Speaker 1: To sort of visit, we got to get Ben Laylor

452
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,919
Speaker 1: on again. Next time Tottenham wins will get Ben Leablor on.

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Speaker 1: Ben Laylor.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much with Bradesco this morning. Paul.

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Speaker 4: Your observation here, Yeah, I think, as you know, Claudia,

456
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 4: Sam Mark Zandi kind of highlighted here. It's still a strong,

457
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:10,359
Speaker 4: fairly strong labor market, but slowing. I think Neil Duddo

458
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 4: is more embarrassing. Hey, the underlying weakness, I think Claudia

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00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 4: Slam is there as well. The underlying weakness is probably

460
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,679
Speaker 4: the more pronounced aspect of the labor market that the

461
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:24,360
Speaker 4: recent trends have been weakening, and those recent trends argue

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00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:26,919
Speaker 4: for the FED to step up here. And whether it's

463
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 4: twenty five or fifty basis points, the market right now,

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00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 4: as our Bloomberg News is reporting, is pricing in a

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00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:33,680
Speaker 4: fifty basis point rate cut.

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Speaker 1: In September, Paulo out on YouTube, we are listening to witty,

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00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:40,959
Speaker 1: smart not young people.

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Speaker 2: Okay this morning. We're not young, all right, except.

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Speaker 7: At least is young.

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Speaker 4: I'm not young.

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Speaker 1: Second morning to all of you New to the Jobs

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00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: Day ninety two nine FM Boston from Millanocket down to

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00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 1: Black Island, which means you play Jay.

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Speaker 2: Giles for Joan Jet. Good morning

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00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 8: Shown, Love Steaks, Loves, Loves, Loves Takes