1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,560 Speaker 1: If we are smart to keep that to the level 2 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: where we make the economy, the world economy, more resilient 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 1: and not it dragged the world into a place where 4 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:18,760 Speaker 1: we will be all poorer and we would be less secure. 5 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 1: My fear is that we are sleepwalking into this world. 6 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 1: But hey, here is Davos, Wake up, do the right thing. 7 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 1: Hello Stephanomics here and this week we have an action 8 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 1: packed episode from the World Economic Forum in Davos, where 9 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Krystallina Gorgeva, 10 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:45,599 Speaker 1: has been imploring the world's movers and shakers to resist 11 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: the forces of fragmentation, stop sleepwalking to a poorer, more 12 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 1: divided world. As a Bulgarian who grew up in the 13 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: Soviet Block, she also had some sombering words on the 14 00:00:56,840 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: West treatment of Russia after the Soviet Union collapse. We'll 15 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: get to that later. We will also hear why everyone 16 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: is excited about India and why businesses can afford to 17 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 1: give all of their employees a living wage without running 18 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 1: the risk of triggering inflation. While I told you it 19 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:16,839 Speaker 1: was action packed, but first a taste of a high 20 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:20,679 Speaker 1: powered panel I moderated here naturally on the subject of 21 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 1: Fiscal Policy, also known as what Governments Choose to do 22 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 1: with taxes and spending. Panelists, you're going to hear a 23 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 1: go give as number two at the i m F. 24 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 1: The economist key to GOP enough, the European Commissioner for 25 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:36,039 Speaker 1: the Economy Paolo Glory, and the former governor of the 26 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 1: Indian Central Bank and celebrated economist who is now a 27 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 1: professor at Chicago Raam Rajan and I was introducing the panel, 28 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: I pointed out that when it came to fiscal policy, governments, 29 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 1: at least until recently, had had two luxuries. First, for 30 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: many years, they've been able to borrow more while spending 31 00:01:56,000 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 1: less on debt interest. Debt stocks in many developed economy 32 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 1: have roughly doubled since the global financial crisis, but thanks 33 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: to falling interest rates, the total cost of servicing that 34 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:10,959 Speaker 1: debt had actually gone down. The second great advantage they've 35 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 1: enjoyed was that in responding to crises, there hadn't been 36 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:18,959 Speaker 1: a big conflict between fiscal policy and monetary policy, and 37 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: the economy had a problem. Both monetary and fiscal policy 38 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:26,080 Speaker 1: pointed in the direction of being looser. But in the 39 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:30,239 Speaker 1: past year, both of those luxuries have been cruelly snatched 40 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 1: away as inflation as Hammond households, but also pushed central 41 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: banks to raise interest rates. So I started by asking 42 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 1: geter gob enough how governments were coping with this difficult 43 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 1: new era. You have an inflation problem, you have to 44 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: deal with that. You're still hit with shocks like food 45 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 1: shocks and energy shocks that require fiscal policies to step up. 46 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: And that's what's make in the current conjuncture particularly difficult. 47 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:08,399 Speaker 1: And what's important to keep in mind though, is inflation 48 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 1: has helped a little bit with on the death story. 49 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 1: So if you look at what happened to public sector 50 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:19,480 Speaker 1: there globally, in it went up to around of gdp 51 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 1: and now it's come down to around GDP, and that's 52 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 1: because of a combination of the recovery but also because 53 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 1: of the inflation inflating away some of that death Now 54 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: it's still around eight percentage points higher than it was 55 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 1: what it was pre pandemic. So there is still a 56 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: dead problem that countries have to deal with, but inflation 57 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 1: and the recovery has has reduced the size of that 58 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 1: increase in the debt. In terms of what countries need 59 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 1: to do to manage this difficult trade off. Right now, 60 00:03:56,560 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 1: I would say fiscal policy has to uh accomplished three things, 61 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 1: which is one it should be consistent with bringing inflation down, 62 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: which means at the minimum it should not be expansionary 63 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,919 Speaker 1: at the overall level. The second thing that fiscal policies 64 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:18,719 Speaker 1: should keep in mind is indeed to make sure that 65 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:20,840 Speaker 1: you are protecting the most vulnerable and they need to 66 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 1: do that. And when it comes to food and energy, 67 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 1: these are very important fundamental essentials for for households, you 68 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: need to provide support for that. And the last thing 69 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 1: is it's absolutely essential this time to have a sound 70 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:39,160 Speaker 1: and communicate a sound medium term fiscal framework, clarity on 71 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,480 Speaker 1: bringing down debt all the time and building up buffers 72 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: in the medium term. Commissioner Gentle only, this is going 73 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 1: to be the toughest year for European governments. Uh, well, 74 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:52,720 Speaker 1: we had a lot of tough it's always going to 75 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 1: be top next year. I think we had a three 76 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: or four years stress test for our records. On the 77 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,719 Speaker 1: COVID crisis, it was a love affair between monetary and 78 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:09,599 Speaker 1: physical policy. Now, of course the situation is completely different. 79 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:14,839 Speaker 1: So the challenge now in my view are mainly two 80 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 1: If we want have this good coordination between monetary and 81 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 1: physical policy. First, how we are able to avoid that 82 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 1: the expenditure the measures to address the energy crisis remain 83 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 1: universal and time unlimited measures. Just to make you an example, 84 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:46,840 Speaker 1: we spent at the EU level in twenty two one 85 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 1: point three of our budget on energy prices related measures. 86 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,280 Speaker 1: If you look to the draft budgetary plan for twenty 87 00:05:57,320 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: twenty three, this one point three goes down to one percent. 88 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 1: But this decrease is based on the assumption that you 89 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 1: will gradually phase out these measures, limit them, go to 90 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 1: more targeted measures. If this doesn't happen, if we continue 91 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: the measures that we have in place, the overall burden 92 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 1: will be two percent. So we will go from one 93 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: point three twenty two not decrease into one percent, but 94 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:37,679 Speaker 1: increasing to two percent. So this is our first issue 95 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 1: and we discussed. We discussed also with finance ministers. It 96 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: is not easy to phase out these measures, of course 97 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 1: from a social point of view, but if you keep 98 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 1: them in place for a too long time when you 99 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 1: will phase out, you could have a spike again in inflation. 100 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 1: So we have to phase out them, make them more targeted, 101 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,919 Speaker 1: and this is a political challenge. Second challenges that we 102 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: need to keep a good level of public investments in 103 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: strategic areas. And this is what for me is very 104 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: encouraging looking to the budget that we have for twenty 105 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 1: twenty three, is that public investment is not decreasing, it 106 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 1: is increasing. It is exactly the opposite of what happened 107 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: after the financial crisis, when we had five or six 108 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: years of continuously decreasing public investments because we need The 109 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 1: other component of this difficult situation is that, yes we 110 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: have inflation, Yes we have to support the vulnerables, but 111 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 1: we have also to continue to support our transition investments 112 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 1: programmers just at the most sort of basic level. The 113 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 1: inflation has made it a little bit easier to see 114 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: debt stocks fall in nominal terms, but of course again 115 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: completely basic cost of borrowing has gone up. How is this? 116 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 1: How do you think fiscal policy makers should be thinking 117 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 1: about fiscal policy as a tool given these two things. Absolutely, 118 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 1: the size of the debt has gone up tremendously over 119 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: the last few years. And that's actually an interesting issue, 120 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: which is why has fiscal discipline broken down? And so 121 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,559 Speaker 1: one argument is, soh we've had all these extraordinary crisis 122 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 1: and that is true. But we've had three once in 123 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:43,079 Speaker 1: a lifetime crisis in the last twenty years, right, the 124 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 1: global financial crisis, we've had the pandemic, and now, of 125 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: course the consequences of the war. Part of the problem 126 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 1: that's going on is clearly there is a fractured political 127 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: consensus in many industrial countries. I mean that is part 128 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 1: of the reason the US overspent. Every constituency got a 129 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 1: share of the spending simply because they couldn't make choices. 130 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 1: So forget targeted spending. It's universal plus in the sense 131 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 1: that what you had was banks which should have suffered 132 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 1: losses during the pandemic, didn't suffer any losses. Why because 133 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 1: you have the paycheck protection program which went to the 134 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 1: small and medium firms correctly, but then it went out 135 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:26,199 Speaker 1: through the back door directly to the banks to repay 136 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 1: the loans. So in some sense we've built out everybody, right, 137 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:34,359 Speaker 1: and that is the problem. Spending today is highly on targeted, 138 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 1: including the energy spending, that is, the spending on power 139 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 1: that is happening in Europe. How do we bring it 140 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: back sort of under control? I think Mr Gentle only 141 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: expressed concern here. Now what does that mean for the 142 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: longer term. It means that fiscal and monetary will remain 143 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:59,319 Speaker 1: more in conflict rather than coordination going forward. Central banks 144 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 1: are clearly did termined to bring inflation down, but with 145 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:06,439 Speaker 1: spending still high, plus the prospect of spending not becoming 146 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 1: more targeted over time does imply that inflationary expectations inflationary 147 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 1: consequences will be higher for longer. Last point I will 148 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 1: make you know there's a lot of you know, need 149 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:25,119 Speaker 1: for green investment. We heard again that you know, countries 150 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: need to do more of it. The real question is 151 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 1: who's going to bear the burden of green investment. The 152 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 1: more you focus on incentive structures given by the government, 153 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: subsidies here, subsidies there. Uh, what that does is put 154 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:41,680 Speaker 1: the burden on the public sector balance sheet. The more 155 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: you focus on regulation, you know, carbon tax or or 156 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 1: emission controls and so on, the more it comes on 157 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 1: the private sector. Right now, it seems certainly in the 158 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 1: US the consensus is it's too hard to put it 159 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:56,679 Speaker 1: on the private sector. It goes on the public sector 160 00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: baron sheet. We just saw the Inflation Reduction Act full 161 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:03,320 Speaker 1: of incentives of one kind or the other. So I 162 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 1: think this is yet another place where fiscal needs to 163 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:10,440 Speaker 1: think very hard, given the breakdown in consensus, given the fracture, 164 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:13,719 Speaker 1: are we going to take the easy route and not 165 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 1: impose some of the costs of the transition on the 166 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: private sector? Take it all in the public sector bandsheet, 167 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,680 Speaker 1: which means the public sector bands has yet more burdens 168 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:27,319 Speaker 1: going forward, which means yet more premium in unexpected places. 169 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:38,439 Speaker 1: So undelighted now to be here in damoswit Nandandella County, 170 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:41,199 Speaker 1: who is a co founder and chairman of the Indian 171 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 1: i T giant Emphasis Technologies, and here at damas of 172 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 1: the World Economic Forum. There's been so much negativity about 173 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 1: the world for very good reason. But I have to 174 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 1: say I've noticed there's a big exception whenever anyone talks 175 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 1: about India. Everyone seems to think India is only up, 176 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 1: are they? Well, I'm personally very bullish on India, Stephanie 177 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 1: and I think there are a number of reasons for that. 178 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 1: India is the only young country in an aging world, 179 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:13,679 Speaker 1: and therefore it's going to be the source of talent 180 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: around the world from many many professions and that's going 181 00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 1: to have a huge economic impact. India also having showing 182 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:24,920 Speaker 1: good growth is probably going to grow faster than most 183 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:29,199 Speaker 1: countries in the coming years. And it's also stable politically. 184 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 1: It has great entrepreneurs, It has a very thriving startup ecosystem. 185 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 1: Now we have ninety startups in India. And of course 186 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 1: India's digital record of both exports as well as its 187 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:45,440 Speaker 1: own infrastructure has been very good. So yes, I think 188 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: the style all aligned for India at the moment. And 189 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 1: we also we had this week, we had this news 190 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 1: about China's population shrinking. I mean, the flip side of 191 00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:58,560 Speaker 1: that is it seems very longly that India is now 192 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:01,560 Speaker 1: the most populous country in the world. How does that feel? Well, 193 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 1: I'm sure, I'm not sure that maybe it is the 194 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 1: popular but more than that is about the proportion of 195 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 1: young people. You know, I think we all know about 196 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 1: the demographic David. And when there's a lot of young 197 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:15,439 Speaker 1: people and less babies and less old people than countries 198 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: have economic growth. So India that that sweet spot of 199 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 1: demographics and therefore if it does everything right, it can 200 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 1: grow at five six percent a year for for many years, 201 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 1: and you know, compounded growth asiss values. So I think 202 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 1: that's why people are Polish in general. I also feel 203 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 1: that Indians are more optimistic and confident about the future, 204 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:37,160 Speaker 1: and that adds to the energy in the country. Is 205 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: it possible that if you will get old before I 206 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 1: guess rich, Well, that's always a risk of developing country. 207 00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 1: But I think I think if I think in the 208 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 1: next fifteen twenty years, if if it is able to 209 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:54,960 Speaker 1: grow at a sustained pace of five six percent, and 210 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 1: then the compounding of that, we need to per capita 211 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 1: incomes rising from you know, three dollars to fifteen dollars 212 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,680 Speaker 1: in the next three five years, and that's that's that's 213 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:09,319 Speaker 1: much more than middle income country. One of the big debates, 214 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 1: and we talked about it a lot of stephonomics, is 215 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:17,719 Speaker 1: the shift in the global economy, changing nature of globalization. 216 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 1: I don't tend to think of it as deglobalization, but 217 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 1: certainly businesses around the world thinking about their supply change, 218 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:28,560 Speaker 1: thinking about fundamentally about the relationship with China, especially in 219 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: the I T world. How how are you thinking about that? Well, 220 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 1: I think, once again, I think some of the trends 221 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: in globalization and geopolitics is favoring India. First. Is the 222 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 1: China plus one strategy for many manufacturing companies because the 223 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: last rendy years they're you know, sort of highly constrated 224 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 1: their manufacturing in China and they've seen the implication of 225 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 1: that with zero COVID and so on, so they are 226 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 1: all actively looking at options in India is now emerging 227 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 1: as a country of manufacturing. So that's that's one thing 228 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 1: that's favored in India. And then the good thing is 229 00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 1: that the ID business is going to grow continue to grow. 230 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 1: It's you know, the ID business. Just to us sense 231 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 1: of the speed and scale, it took a hundred It 232 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: took thirty years for the Indian I industry reach hundred 233 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 1: million dollars of revenue. It took ten years to go 234 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 1: from hundred billion to two hundred billion, and it will 235 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 1: take three years to go from two hundred billion to 236 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 1: three undi billion. So there's a sort of a change 237 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: of space and and increasingly with the PANDAMIC and the 238 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: realization that digital technology was central to the world. I 239 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 1: think a lot of that action will be in India. 240 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 1: Do you think India I don't think there's sounds passions, 241 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 1: I don't really passionism, But do you think India's ready 242 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 1: for the geopolitical implications of being one of the big 243 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 1: fastest growing economy's most important economies in the world. Had 244 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:55,040 Speaker 1: India's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is 245 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 1: involved in ports of oil, Russian oil. I think traveling, 246 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 1: you know, but from nothing, you know, I think I 247 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:04,960 Speaker 1: think we should. The fact of the matter is European 248 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 1: import of oil is much much higher and gas much 249 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 1: higher in India. They were done, so I think India 250 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 1: had hardly been an earlier importer before this, there was 251 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 1: no import of russtionally to India. But I think the 252 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 1: point is that India is I think, turning out to 253 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: be a very strategic country the world. It's growing markets, 254 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 1: is going to attract a lot of companies, Its role 255 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 1: in digital is going to be huge. Indias this year 256 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 1: is the host of the G twenty, so Prime Minister 257 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 1: Modi and other ministers are working on making the next 258 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: twelve months very hospitable environment for the G twenty to 259 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 1: come and visit. So I think, you know, it's it's 260 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 1: all about, you know, figuring out how to get there. 261 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: But I think, by and large, I think it's going well. 262 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:51,600 Speaker 1: The other thing I was going to ask you, that's 263 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,800 Speaker 1: very striking, certainly to all of my colleagues in India. 264 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: Is the fact that a Darling and embody are buying 265 00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:03,480 Speaker 1: for much every asset inside in India. Are we Is 266 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 1: there a risk that India is going to become a 267 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 1: sort of two company country. No. I think India's farmer 268 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: has a huge depth of companies. I mean, if you 269 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: look at the financial sector, you know you have great 270 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:20,200 Speaker 1: companies like I c SC and HDFC. If you look 271 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:24,119 Speaker 1: at the you have the Cutter Group, you have Enforces 272 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 1: sent with pro and many of the tech companies. The 273 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,879 Speaker 1: India's farmer industries world class. So I think India actually 274 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:34,199 Speaker 1: hear a very diversified business space. And I think, you know, 275 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 1: I think the the the investments in things like climate 276 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: technology which they are doing is going to be very 277 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 1: influential because they are really going to bring world class 278 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 1: entrepreneurship to bring energy cost slow, make green hydrosion. And 279 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 1: also I think everybody's doing their job in their own way. 280 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 1: And the one thing that someone said to me is 281 00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:59,600 Speaker 1: straight after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and of course 282 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 1: there's the lots of debate about whether that has accelerated 283 00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 1: the transition to zero carbon globally or actually retarded it 284 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:12,560 Speaker 1: because everyone has been immediately reopening their power they coal 285 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 1: fired power plants and other things. But one expert in 286 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 1: this field said to me that he had hoped that 287 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,879 Speaker 1: India's a lot of India's coal might stay in the ground, 288 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 1: and now he thought that was not going to happen. Well, no, 289 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 1: I think we said we should distinguish the shotgun From 290 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:31,760 Speaker 1: the long term. I think the Ukraine crisis and the 291 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 1: whole Russian gas thing has demonstrated the dependence of Europe, 292 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 1: for example, on Russian gas, and many countries are going 293 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 1: in Europe are going back to coal and nuclear and song. 294 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 1: So that I think in the short term reaction to 295 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 1: energy security. But I definitely see that the fundamental shift 296 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: to renewables is now reaching scale. I mean, you know, 297 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 1: the other day I was in Abu Dhabi and they 298 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:57,439 Speaker 1: were talking about building hundred gigabards of solar or so 299 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:00,200 Speaker 1: they want to prepare for the future. I was talked 300 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 1: to some people from Denmark and they were talking about 301 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 1: the fact that's going to be having fritrigugar awards of 302 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 1: offshore wind in the next seven years. In India, we 303 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 1: have you know, a large entrepreneurs talking about going to 304 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 1: very low cost green hydrogen. So I do believe. Now 305 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:20,159 Speaker 1: I see actually scale investments in renewable and definitely some 306 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:23,600 Speaker 1: of them have been triggered by the crisis. But India 307 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 1: has a cop on elsewhere. India has insisted on its 308 00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:32,160 Speaker 1: right to use its call to fire its economic development. 309 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 1: It has that right, But do you think it should 310 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 1: exercise right? I think. I mean it has made a 311 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,440 Speaker 1: huge commitment to solar. Solar is going to be huge, 312 00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:43,959 Speaker 1: and the solar mission in Indias is a massive mission. 313 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 1: Indians making a huge commitment to green hydrogen. Indians making 314 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:52,000 Speaker 1: a huge kind of commitment to evis. I don't know 315 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:54,119 Speaker 1: what they mean. But the fastest going cast today in 316 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 1: India evs or two wheelers, and the transie even much 317 00:19:57,080 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 1: faster than we think. So I think it's doing all 318 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 1: that by at the same time, you know, you have 319 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 1: to deliver developed people. Is that the same thing? Why? 320 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,439 Speaker 1: Why are there we really starting called plants in Europe? 321 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 1: The same reason? Right? I'm delighted I managed to grab 322 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: in the hallways. Dr Nila Richardson, who's chief economist of 323 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 1: the Payroll and Human Capital Management Company a d p UM. 324 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 1: I think that ADP. You also produced the main Street 325 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 1: macro blog. Is that right? That's right, that's right right 326 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 1: up as street. Um, so you're hearing Davos and I 327 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 1: saw you were speaking on a panel here about the 328 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:43,280 Speaker 1: living wage and you have some access at ADP to 329 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:46,639 Speaker 1: some fantastic data. We love big data on stephanomics. So 330 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,080 Speaker 1: have you done some research on on the living wage? 331 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,440 Speaker 1: And what were you what were you saying on the panel? Well, 332 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 1: we track wages very closely at ADP, and I do 333 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 1: as an economist, because we know that inflation has morphed 334 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 1: over its lifespan over the last three years. It's started 335 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 1: in the good sector, it's now very present in the 336 00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:10,640 Speaker 1: service sector in the form of wages and all of that. 337 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,399 Speaker 1: People get lost in it because there's the sense that 338 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:17,680 Speaker 1: since waged growth has been so robust that wages workers 339 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 1: are actually in the driver's seat. They're not. That is 340 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 1: a myth that unravels when you look at real wages, 341 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:31,640 Speaker 1: which globally has declined by UH many global researchers viewpoints 342 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 1: for the first time in decades. It's a real problem. 343 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,679 Speaker 1: But this problem of living wages started before the pandemic. 344 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,399 Speaker 1: There is a sense that market wages. The wages that 345 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 1: companies pay and even governments pay, don't always keep track 346 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:52,600 Speaker 1: with necessities housing, food, transportation costs, clothing, education. For many workers, 347 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,719 Speaker 1: they're not making the bare minimum to have a decent 348 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 1: standard of living and enter the living wage panel. It's 349 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 1: always important because it's a perpetual problem for the world, 350 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 1: but it's even worse in a context of high inflation. 351 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 1: And I think that is something we forget when we 352 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: see these high numbers that looking through looking through the 353 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 1: nominal um to see the real governments all around the 354 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,679 Speaker 1: world of facing this trade off, right that they, in 355 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 1: theory do want to help households potential voages, but they 356 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,840 Speaker 1: don't want to set off a wage price spiral. So 357 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 1: how do you see the living wage as part of 358 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,239 Speaker 1: that argument. First of all, it's demystifying the fact that 359 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:38,680 Speaker 1: if you raise wages for a small portion of your 360 00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:42,040 Speaker 1: workforce that you are going to set out a spiral. 361 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:43,919 Speaker 1: I think that is a myth that we need to 362 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:47,399 Speaker 1: test um. Secondly, and you say a small portion, you 363 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 1: mean those at the lower end, right, So if you 364 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 1: look at ADP data, we pay over twenty five million 365 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 1: workers in the United States, only three point four percent 366 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,159 Speaker 1: of those workers make at or below the minimum wage, 367 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: So there is room too, and states are doing the 368 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,639 Speaker 1: cities are doing this, Some companies are doing this to 369 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:09,440 Speaker 1: increase the minimum bar for pay without stoking an increase 370 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 1: in overall UH wage gains. And so we can't throw 371 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,760 Speaker 1: the baby out with the bath water. But also there's 372 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:23,640 Speaker 1: there is a benefit to companies to providing fair living wages, 373 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:27,159 Speaker 1: and that is productivity. Workers that are paid fairly or 374 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 1: more productive. And if you look at globally at labor 375 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,440 Speaker 1: force protect productivity, it's been on the decline over the 376 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:37,240 Speaker 1: past decade. So here here's the great thing about raising wages. 377 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 1: Not only do you fit provide a fair and living wage, 378 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,880 Speaker 1: you can also help your company's bottom line by having 379 00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,440 Speaker 1: a more productive workforce when you think about the cost 380 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:50,200 Speaker 1: of living and food insecurity. Is the living wage debate 381 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:54,159 Speaker 1: different when you think about low income countries where there 382 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 1: will be a higher number of workers in that vulnerable category. 383 00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:02,600 Speaker 1: It is. It is more felt in developing countries. But 384 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 1: we're here at DAVAS and the point of this planel 385 00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 1: is to elicit discussion from global decision makers who actually 386 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,960 Speaker 1: can impact from their perch. Maybe it's in an advanced 387 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:16,880 Speaker 1: country in New York City or in Munich, but from 388 00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:20,679 Speaker 1: their perch they can affect the lives of workers around 389 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 1: the world. Um. And so that's what I hope that 390 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,360 Speaker 1: we draw out in the panel, the benefits to multi 391 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 1: national countries of paying a living wage everywhere they do business. 392 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,040 Speaker 1: And finally, I mean there's a lot of talk care 393 00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,640 Speaker 1: and certainly and we on Ephonomics have talked about how 394 00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:39,120 Speaker 1: some of the main drivers of globalization, of of global 395 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,640 Speaker 1: capitalism over the last few decades seem to be going 396 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 1: into reverse, particularly the sort of consistent period of low 397 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:52,360 Speaker 1: energy costs, transportation costs, calm geopolitics, and of course low 398 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 1: wage peace was a big element of that. Do you 399 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:59,679 Speaker 1: think that wages, that that labor is going to be 400 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:03,359 Speaker 1: a more more expensive input for businesses in the years 401 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 1: to come? And where does that leave workers? Is it 402 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 1: a great new time for workers? Coming down the track 403 00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 1: in terms of the US and Europe, labor shortages will persist, 404 00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,199 Speaker 1: especially here in the US. The expectation is that the 405 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:21,000 Speaker 1: next decade of employment growth will be half of the 406 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,919 Speaker 1: previous decade. And uh, the mirror or the image of 407 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 1: that is your So labor shortages will continue. That means 408 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 1: wage pressures will still be there, and wages I don't 409 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 1: think will fall uh in terms of growth low enough 410 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:39,480 Speaker 1: to be consistent with two percent target inflation. So there 411 00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,399 Speaker 1: is going to be a new world of higher inflation 412 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:45,800 Speaker 1: and more robust wages. Where does that leave the worker? 413 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:50,040 Speaker 1: It's really a race against time. Will inflation moderate enough 414 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:54,399 Speaker 1: and wages stay solid enough that they that workers actually 415 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 1: benefit from lower inflation. We don't know the yet. Globally 416 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,200 Speaker 1: they haven't, and are many low income workers they haven't. 417 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,720 Speaker 1: Their wages haven't kept up with inflation. So the hope 418 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:07,399 Speaker 1: for the worker is the same for the hope for 419 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 1: the global growth. You need to see inflation moderate. At 420 00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:14,439 Speaker 1: the same time, we need that productivity, investment in human 421 00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:18,240 Speaker 1: capital that keeps wages growing for the right reasons. So 422 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,000 Speaker 1: I had wrote a piece for Business Week looking through 423 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: the beginning of the year, and I was that was 424 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,640 Speaker 1: my end point, that you know, if getting if inflation 425 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:28,600 Speaker 1: is under control, in the next year and a half, 426 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,600 Speaker 1: everything gets easier, everything we might have wanted to achieve. 427 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,440 Speaker 1: Nila Richardson, thank you so much. It was a pleasure. 428 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 1: Thank you, I promised you. A last word from Kristina Gorgeva, 429 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,960 Speaker 1: Managing Director of the IMF. What you heard at the 430 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,440 Speaker 1: very start of the show with some of her opening 431 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 1: comment on a panel I didn't moderate entitled keeping the 432 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 1: Lights on amid Geopolitical Fracture. That's a van typical title 433 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 1: for a panel around here, and there was some interesting discussion. 434 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,440 Speaker 1: What really stuck with me was the final word, which 435 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,760 Speaker 1: the MD insisted on contributing right at the end, a 436 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,680 Speaker 1: message based on her personal history. It seemed right from 437 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:18,520 Speaker 1: the heart. If you look at twenty two, the biggest, single, 438 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 1: biggest factor affecting the world economy was this senseless war. 439 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 1: What I know about Russia is that one of the 440 00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:39,680 Speaker 1: pitfalls of the last decades was the fact that there 441 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:45,439 Speaker 1: wasn't more concerted effort to integrate the Russian society, the 442 00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:51,720 Speaker 1: Russian people within the world community. I was country directed 443 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:55,639 Speaker 1: for Russia based in Moscow in the best days, when 444 00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,920 Speaker 1: Russia was reforming and there was g a to remember 445 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:03,520 Speaker 1: these days, yea. And at that time, when you ask 446 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:08,200 Speaker 1: the Russian people who they are, how they define themselves, 447 00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:13,600 Speaker 1: the majority would say Europeans, even the Russians that live 448 00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,680 Speaker 1: in the Asian part of Russia. When you ask the 449 00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:21,520 Speaker 1: Russian people today, they say we are different, We are 450 00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:25,159 Speaker 1: a different civilization, were different from from the rest of 451 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,600 Speaker 1: the world. So if I draw one lesson is to 452 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:33,639 Speaker 1: remember that, yes, policies are defined in the high corridors 453 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:38,960 Speaker 1: of power, but when a population of a country subscribes 454 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:42,880 Speaker 1: to policies that are the treatmental to their own interests, 455 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,800 Speaker 1: there is something for the world to reflect on and 456 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:50,560 Speaker 1: perhaps think about ways in which we can do more 457 00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:55,400 Speaker 1: people to people exchange. In this horrible thing Russia has done, 458 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 1: there is a bit of kind of vilifying all Russians. 459 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,400 Speaker 1: We roll the moll in that pot, and we have 460 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,600 Speaker 1: to be careful about it. There are so many wonderful, 461 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 1: smart Russian people that don't agree with these policies. Are 462 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:15,040 Speaker 1: these Russian speakers in the audience anybody? There is a 463 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 1: very famous Russian song and when the war started it 464 00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 1: spiked into my my mind. That is about Russia not 465 00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:29,360 Speaker 1: wanting the Second World War And the song is usk 466 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:33,200 Speaker 1: by night? Do the Russians want a war? And the 467 00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 1: whole notion of the of the song is not they don't. 468 00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 1: What happened, why did it happen, and how we can 469 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:44,959 Speaker 1: put an end to it. I want to leave us 470 00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:50,600 Speaker 1: with this uh notion that that even the hundred years 471 00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:57,880 Speaker 1: war and it where at the negotiating table the sooner 472 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 1: we defined space, as everybody here said, for this horrible 473 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 1: war to end, the better for everyone and of course 474 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:20,680 Speaker 1: great news for the world economy. Well, thank you, m right, 475 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:29,680 Speaker 1: your roof need what you should not see, you perty 476 00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:36,400 Speaker 1: buddy you video. That is it for this action packed 477 00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,960 Speaker 1: devils compendion. We'll be back for our final episode of 478 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:43,120 Speaker 1: the season next week. Who In the meantime, please rate 479 00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,240 Speaker 1: us wherever you get this podcast and check out the 480 00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:48,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News website for more economic news and views on 481 00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:52,040 Speaker 1: the global economy. This episode was produced by Yang Yang, 482 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,520 Speaker 1: Samma Sadi and Magnus Hendrickson, with special thanks to the 483 00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:59,000 Speaker 1: World Economic Forum. Is a copy as rag Ram Rajan, 484 00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:05,160 Speaker 1: Paolo gen Aloni, Nan Daniela Khani, Nila Richardson, and Kristina Nagorgieva. 485 00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:09,680 Speaker 1: Mike Sasso is the executive producer of Stephanomics. Kakat e 486 00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:17,280 Speaker 1: rufski kakat e rufskie hutcha ruf kiel by me