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That's me Coli in twenty bucks off your 18 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 2: first purchase. If you do that, terms apply again. Create 19 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 2: an account. Redeem code Colin Coli n for twenty bucks off. 20 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 2: Download game Time today. What time is it? Game Time? 21 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 2: All right? It is time for another edition, the Thanksgiving Edition. 22 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:12,119 Speaker 2: It's a tasty one. Sharper Square Chad Millman, co host 23 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:15,320 Speaker 2: of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings. So I 24 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 2: have this is a weird week. I always try to 25 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 2: I'll bet individual games during Thanksgiving, but I think it's 26 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:25,840 Speaker 2: a tough week short rest. Like I'll give you an example. 27 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 2: I like the Packers minus three against the Dolphins. I get. 28 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 2: I think a better roster at home short rest. I 29 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 2: think Miami and Tua's history in cold weather is I 30 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 2: was joking today on the Herd. I'm like, there's a 31 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 2: reason Norway's great in the Winter Olympics and not of 32 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 2: the Summer Olympics. There are truths about weather. Every NCAA 33 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 2: Beach Volleyball championship since it's been created has gone to 34 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 2: USC or UCLA. If you go look at the history 35 00:01:55,840 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 2: of dynasties in the NFL, starting with Lobardi, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, 36 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 2: New England, Kansas City Steelers, Dallas where by the way, 37 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 2: it snows during Christmas, and San Francisco, which Mark Twain 38 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 2: once said the coldest winter I ever spent was a 39 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 2: summer in San Francisco. There are no warm weather dynasties 40 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:21,399 Speaker 2: because eventually warm teams have to go north, and it's 41 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:23,359 Speaker 2: just the reality of somebody that grows up in the 42 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:25,799 Speaker 2: Keys does not want to live in Baltimore the winter. 43 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:29,399 Speaker 2: So I like the Packers. I think the weather thing 44 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 2: between a Hawaiian quarterback who went to the SEC and Miami, 45 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:35,919 Speaker 2: I think it's real Sharper square. 46 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:40,520 Speaker 3: So it's a little bit square. However, you and I 47 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,240 Speaker 3: are aligned. The line was at three and a half. 48 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 3: It's come down. The wise guys have been betting on 49 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 3: the Dolphins. It kind of doesn't make much sense to 50 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 3: me to as you mentioned, as a dog in this 51 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:59,239 Speaker 3: spot three and eleven. 52 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:03,760 Speaker 1: I think on the road against. 53 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:07,680 Speaker 3: Winning teams, So he does not have a good history here. 54 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 3: And if you look at the three games he's been 55 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 3: back beat the Rams on the road, everyone was excited 56 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 3: about it. They're not a winning team. They were not 57 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 3: a winning team when he beat them. Then he just 58 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 3: beat up on the Patriots. The Patriots are statistically the 59 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 3: worst team in the NFL. So you're getting to a 60 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:30,360 Speaker 3: looking really good, and I admit he looked great. And 61 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 3: they've changed their scheme quite a bit. They're not throwing 62 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 3: the ball downfield as much. They're throwing a lot more 63 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 3: sort of in cuts that allow the players like Tyreek 64 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 3: Hill to really get yards after the catch. But going 65 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 3: to Green Bay, it's going to be twenty five degrees. 66 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 3: It's going to be windy. Matt Lafleoor schematically one of 67 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 3: the best coaches in the NFL. We've seen what he 68 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 3: does when he doesn't have a quarterback. Just give the 69 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 3: ball to Josh Jacobs against the Miami's defense. I like 70 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 3: the opportunity for Matt Leflora, who I think is a 71 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 3: better coach than Mike McDaniels. He's sixty plus percent against 72 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 3: the spread as a favorite at home. 73 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 1: I'm with you. I don't get the move. I like 74 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 1: the Packers. I'm not a buyer on Miami. 75 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 2: So this line I didn't understand. There's a couple of 76 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:26,159 Speaker 2: lines this week I didn't quite get. So the Steelers 77 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 2: are a much better football operation than Joe Burrow and 78 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 2: the Bengals. And I've talked about this before. The Bengals 79 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 2: moved off Joe Mixon and defensive players before they paid 80 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 2: T Higgins and Jamar Chase. They're just a cheap franchise. 81 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 2: Pittsburgh awful loss is going to be feisty. Pittsburgh is 82 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 2: a dog is great. Burrow's wonderful, but not when he's 83 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 2: sitting on the bench watching a run game, dominate time 84 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 2: of possession. I like the Steelers as a dog plus three, 85 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 2: it's a much better team, sharper square. 86 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 3: Yet of course it's the sharp play. It makes no 87 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 3: sense that the number is even close to three. 88 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 2: I don't tell it. 89 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: It's been bouncing around. 90 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 3: It opened to two and a half, got bet up 91 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:15,839 Speaker 3: to three, came back to two and a half. Because 92 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 3: the wise guys know Mike Tomlin as a dog sixty 93 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:26,360 Speaker 3: two percent on the road, he is the best coach 94 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 3: as a dog this generation. Twenty years. He is sixty 95 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 3: two percent as a dog in the division on the road, 96 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 3: sixty four percent when the spread is between one and three. 97 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 3: I do believe that a lot of people are just 98 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 3: enamored with how Joe Burrow has been playing pret year. 99 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 3: He's putting up pinball numbers, right. But this is a 100 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:52,119 Speaker 3: terrible defense. And while they've been off for two weeks, 101 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:54,719 Speaker 3: the Steelers have been off for ten days, and it's 102 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 3: a raw rah Mike Tomlin spot. He makes these guys believe, 103 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:02,720 Speaker 3: and they's still in a position where they can win 104 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:04,919 Speaker 3: that division. So you're not going to want to lose 105 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:07,280 Speaker 3: an in division game. I bet the Steelers on the 106 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 3: money line. 107 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 2: Another dog I like is Arizona plus three and a 108 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:15,359 Speaker 2: half at the Vikings so off of by Arizona was 109 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 2: a mess and a lot of it. With Seattle got 110 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 2: a consistent pass rush, I don't think Minnesota's pass rush 111 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 2: will be that formidable. I also think Arizona, when they 112 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:28,039 Speaker 2: can run the ball, is a really really effective team. 113 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 2: I think they'll have a better chance to run the 114 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:34,039 Speaker 2: ball here. Arizona is inconsistent, but this is a team 115 00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 2: that has for the last five weeks. I mean they 116 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:39,279 Speaker 2: went to Miami in one and they went to Santa 117 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:42,040 Speaker 2: Clara in one. I think their personnels better than people think. 118 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 2: They have elite players, Budda Baker's elite, Connor's elite. Mcgride 119 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:49,839 Speaker 2: is a tremendous tight end, Kyler Murray's elite. They don't 120 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 2: have big names on the interior d line, but they 121 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 2: play well. They play above their weight. So I just 122 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 2: think I think this is a close game. Minnesota doesn't 123 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 2: really bury people. Go look at the Jacksonville game, go 124 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 2: look at the Chicago game. They're not Philadelphia, they don't 125 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 2: blow over you. They make mistakes, they're missing their great 126 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 2: left tackle. They're a good team, they're not special. They're 127 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 2: well coached with some nice playmakers. But you watch the 128 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 2: Minnesota game, that's a go either way football game, it 129 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 2: doesn't look like either team is significantly more talented and 130 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 2: one is in turmoil, and you're like, I don't know, 131 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 2: they kind of look the same. I'm taking the three 132 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 2: and a half with Arizona Sharper square. 133 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 3: Eh, it's kind of an ish, like there's no consensus. 134 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 3: It's not a lot of interest, to be honest, from 135 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 3: the wise guys. There's some games on the board that 136 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 3: the wise guys have planted a flag in the sand on. 137 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 3: This is not one of them. A lot of the 138 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 3: wise guys liked Arizona last week. They feel a little 139 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 3: burned by what happened in Seattle. You still don't know, 140 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 3: we said last week. They put all their cards on 141 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 3: the table, right, pun intended, and they come off to buy. 142 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 1: Kyler looks disinterested. 143 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 3: So what are you going to be getting the second 144 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:08,480 Speaker 3: week going against Minnesota, which still has a lot to lose, 145 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 3: And you're right, they gave it away against the Bears. 146 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 3: Like the Bears should not even have been close to 147 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 3: turning that game into an overtime game so that they 148 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 3: come out with a little more intensity this week. It's 149 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 3: just a hard one and handicap. 150 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 1: I think. I think the line is kind of right 151 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 1: exactly where it. 152 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 2: Is, Okay, a favorite. I like Buffalo at home minus seven, 153 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 2: well rested and waiting for a nine ers team. Bosa 154 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 2: didn't practice, Trent Williams didn't practice. I'm not sure if 155 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 2: that locker room. I mean, if Bosa doesn't play, that's 156 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 2: a very average D line. Buffalo's rested, they're healthy. You know, 157 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:47,760 Speaker 2: they're a team that they're playing for the number one 158 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 2: seed here. And by the way, Alan the backup for 159 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 2: San Francisco, that's not going to work. That's just not 160 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,559 Speaker 2: good enough. And Brock Prudy, who never has a great arm, 161 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 2: is now dealing with a shoulder in shoot again, this 162 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 2: is not a guy with a whip to begin with. 163 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 2: This is the rare. I think the Niners are living 164 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 2: off reputation. I just don't think they're a very special 165 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 2: football team. Five and seven in their last twelve. I'm 166 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 2: going to lay the seven. I like Buffalo sharper square. 167 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:18,199 Speaker 3: Sure, I mean the wise guys had been betting Buffalo. 168 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 3: It opened at six and a half, it's got up 169 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 3: to seven. I think the real question why it sort 170 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,320 Speaker 3: of hasn't exploded, and we saw this last week with 171 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 3: the Packers, is Brock Purdy. What's his status going to be? 172 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 3: So no one's going to overinvest until they get a 173 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:35,679 Speaker 3: real sense of what whether or not he's going to 174 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 3: be playing. I agree with you about Nick Bosa. If 175 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 3: you watch that game against the Seahawks, he was the 176 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 3: difference when he was playing, they were in control of 177 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 3: that game. Gino Smith was harassed, he was making bad 178 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:52,959 Speaker 3: decisions and bad throws when he was no longer playing 179 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 3: in that game, Gino Smith goes on a drive in 180 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 3: the final two minutes that wins them the game, and 181 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 3: now all of a sudden it's propelling saddle into Seattle 182 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 3: and everyone thinking they're a super special team and they 183 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:06,320 Speaker 3: could potentially win the NFC West. Nick Boson not being 184 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 3: there and Trent Williams are those are massive, massive missing pieces. 185 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 2: I like the Titans plus five and a half at 186 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:25,320 Speaker 2: the Commander's I think Cliff Kingsbury does this single guy 187 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 2: a lot of time in the summer, plays some golf, 188 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 2: and comes up with a new offense, and I think 189 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 2: it fools people, and then all of a sudden, about 190 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:34,679 Speaker 2: mid October to late October, if you look at his 191 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 2: history in college or pro football, people catch up and 192 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 2: then you're left with a September offense in November. And 193 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 2: I just don't think the Commander's I mean Jesus, it's 194 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 2: like the Cowboys had the Commander's playbook. They would flush 195 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 2: Daniels out of the pocket and there were guys just 196 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 2: waiting for him. And I think Tennessee is really good upfront, defensively, 197 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 2: very disruptive. I think Will Levis still makes He's got 198 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 2: that Will Levis Carson Wentz reckless gene. But you know what, 199 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 2: I think he's played himself into another year starting and 200 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:11,439 Speaker 2: I think you can sense it. I think he doesn't 201 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:12,479 Speaker 2: feel as apprehensive. 202 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 1: I just don't. 203 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 2: I'm not giving up five and a half points for 204 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 2: anybody against the Commanders. I think they're just right now, 205 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 2: an average roster. They have laid out their cards, everybody's 206 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:27,440 Speaker 2: seen them. I'm taking the five and a half. I 207 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 2: think Tennessee's a tough, physical team. Is Houston found out 208 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 2: Sharper Square. 209 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, you nail that it's totally sharp. The interesting thing 210 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 3: here is the line moved from six and a half 211 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 3: to six to five and a half early in the week, 212 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 3: and for what we're talking about here, early in the 213 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 3: week was really Monday, and that was a consensus professional move. 214 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 3: I bet it at five and a half. It moved 215 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 3: up a little bit to six six and a half again, 216 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:55,960 Speaker 3: and now it's come back down. I couldn't agree with 217 00:11:56,000 --> 00:12:00,280 Speaker 3: you more. The cliff cliff, the Cliff Kingsbury cliff. Mid 218 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 3: season is real. Statistically, right, Texas Tech they would get 219 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 3: to the middle point of the year, they would lose. Cardinals, 220 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:10,720 Speaker 3: they would get to the middle point of the year, 221 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 3: they would lose. If you want to pack that, it's 222 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,840 Speaker 3: somewhat circumstantial, right, you can look at Texas Tech and 223 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:20,680 Speaker 3: be like, Okay, they played Patsy's in the beginning of 224 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 3: the year, they get into the conference, the schedule gets 225 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:25,679 Speaker 3: hush right, right, and the Cardinals a couple times, he 226 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 3: had Kyler Murray injured, didn't have the full scope of 227 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:31,080 Speaker 3: his talent, and all of a sudden the team isn't 228 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:34,679 Speaker 3: as good. But it's happening again. It's happening this time 229 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 3: because Jade Daniels is injured and has been playing injured, 230 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:40,079 Speaker 3: and after that rocket start the first four weeks of 231 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 3: the year, he's barely completing seventy percent of his passes. 232 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 1: After a start he was completing eighty percent. 233 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 3: Right, you look at the flip side, and yes, Tennessee 234 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 3: they have a very good defense. 235 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:52,560 Speaker 1: They've been playing better. 236 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,680 Speaker 3: Last week they gave up eight sacks and Will Levis 237 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 3: had a pick six and they still beat Texans who 238 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 3: have a better quarterback in the Washington Commanders. And I 239 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 3: do think that this is going to be the worst 240 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 3: defense Will Levis has faced this season, and he has 241 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 3: an opportunity here to be pressured a little bit less 242 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 3: and get the ball, push the ball downfield, which is 243 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 3: what he's really good at, and that's when he's most comfortable. 244 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 3: So well as guys are with you, that's a sharp play. 245 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 2: I don't know how many people will watch this. I 246 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 2: like the Texans minus four at the Jags. I don't 247 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 2: know what the Jags are playing for. I think that's 248 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:35,880 Speaker 2: a kind of a ugly, toxic locker room where people 249 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 2: have bailed. I think the Texans off one of their 250 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 2: worst performances of the year. It means a lot. They're 251 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 2: playing for more. They're pissed off. They have an issue 252 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 2: with protection guard center guard, but they've got just simply 253 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 2: better players playing for more, and frankly, a better quarterback. 254 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 2: If Trevor Lawrence plays, he's not close to one hundred percent. 255 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 2: I think they have a coaching advantage, a coordinating advantage. 256 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:01,000 Speaker 2: This feels like my second favorite bet of the week. 257 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 2: I'm going to take the Texans minus four at the 258 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 2: Jag Sharper Square. 259 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 3: Well, I wish you hadn't said it was your second 260 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:09,840 Speaker 3: favorite favorite. The wise guys are all over the Jags 261 00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 3: in this game. They love the Jags. They've moved from 262 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,080 Speaker 3: five to four and a half to four. 263 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: Wow. 264 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's an interesting one for me personally. I 265 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 3: agree with you it's a pass. I think the wise 266 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 3: guys are looking at CJ. Stroud and thinking it's not 267 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 3: that he's not progressing, it's that he's the protection's terriblake. Well, 268 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 3: he's playing like a normal quarterback right and like his 269 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 3: interception percentage was so low last year that it doubles 270 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 3: this year, and all of a sudden it's at league 271 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 3: average and everyone thinks, oh my god, there's something wrong. 272 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 3: With him, they're playing different defenses. Again, it's him, so 273 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 3: his coverage is different, and he hasn't had his best players, 274 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 3: so and and and the offensive line protection is terrible, 275 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:55,720 Speaker 3: truly terrible. 276 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 2: You can tell letting everything a second early everything. 277 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's also a gunslinger, right like he likes 278 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 3: to let it go. He's not going to stop being aggressive. 279 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 3: As he said last week, you got to shoot your shot. 280 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 3: So I think that the wise guys are looking at 281 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 3: this and saying division game on the road, JAG's last 282 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 3: chance to make a stand if Trevor Lawrence is playing, 283 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 3: the sort of betting on the opportunity that he might 284 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 3: be playing. And they thought the number was a little 285 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 3: bit too high, so they're taking a piece of that 286 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 3: while they can. 287 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 2: Lions either minus nine or nine and a half at 288 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 2: home against Chicago. So Detroit played by their standards poorly 289 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 2: last week on the road and beat a pretty good 290 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 2: roster soundly. Chicago's had back to back games, heartbreaking games 291 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 2: where they really should win the game and they don't. 292 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 2: And I just wonder about their metal. I just wonder 293 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 2: about how deep the reservoir of disappointment is with Chicago. 294 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 2: I also think when you play Detroit, you always play 295 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 2: from behind. Now, maybe that doesn't Affectkayleb Williams because he 296 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 2: was very good behind against Minus. He's such a playmaker. 297 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 2: But I could see this game becoming thirty eight thirteen 298 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 2: really really fast. I'm going to swallow the points Detroit 299 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 2: minus nine, nine and a half sharper square. 300 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:15,160 Speaker 1: Is this your favorite favorite? 301 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 2: No? I like Buffalo as my favorite favorite. 302 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 3: Okay, so the Wise guys have been all over the Bears. 303 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 3: It went from ten and a half to ten to 304 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 3: nine and a half. As of Wednesday afternoon it was 305 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 3: at nine. I am shocked. I feel like this is 306 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 3: a massive overreaction to the Bears, to two games of 307 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 3: Caleb Williams playing well, still not winning, but playing well. 308 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 3: And by the way, in order to make that game 309 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 3: against Minnesota look halfway decent in the final score, he 310 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 3: needed three miracle passes. And I know you've been spending 311 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 3: a lot of time on Caleb Williams this week and 312 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 3: this season on the show. One of your rants from 313 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 3: earlier this week is like lighting up my Chicago friends 314 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 3: text chain because you've nailed every single component of this, 315 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:18,680 Speaker 3: especially about Matt Eberfluse. This is a terrible coach. He's 316 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 3: a fine defensive coordinator. This is a coaching mismatch in 317 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 3: a short week with a Lions team that got to 318 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 3: really pull back on the throttle against the Colts and 319 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:35,159 Speaker 3: the Bears team that had to go into overtime to 320 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:39,120 Speaker 3: lose and now has to play the earlier game on Thursday. 321 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:43,119 Speaker 1: Like, how does this coaching staff turn it around? 322 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 3: Right? That's number one. Number two, I believe being physical travels. 323 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 3: It is the one thing that is consistent in football. 324 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,159 Speaker 3: Quarterbacks are going to have bad games, Receivers are going 325 00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:00,400 Speaker 3: to drop passes. But when you can block the line 326 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 3: of scrimmage and dominate your opponent, that is the same 327 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 3: every single week. And we saw it last week with 328 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,200 Speaker 3: the Lions. I loved the Colts last week. The Lions 329 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:13,240 Speaker 3: go out and just beat up a very physical team 330 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 3: in the Colts. So now we've got a team in 331 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 3: the Lions second overall in success rate, meaning they get 332 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:24,879 Speaker 3: a higher percentage of yardage on each down towards a 333 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:28,040 Speaker 3: first down than any other team except for one second 334 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 3: in rush success rate. Second in rush expected points per rush, 335 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 3: meaning do they get the number of points does the 336 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 3: rush lead to a point on the scoreboard, it's the 337 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 3: second best in the league EPA expected points overall third. 338 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:50,280 Speaker 3: The Bears twenty sixth in the NFL in rushing. Their 339 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:52,399 Speaker 3: rush defense is terrible. People want to talk about how 340 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 3: good their pass rush is and could they do something 341 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 3: to Jared Goff. I don't care because if it's third 342 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 3: and eight for the Lions, they know they're going to 343 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 3: go four and fourth down, going to give Jamir Gibs 344 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 3: the ball, and he's going to gain five yards, and 345 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:04,719 Speaker 3: then they're going to go four on four and three. Like, 346 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 3: I don't see what this feels like, just a massive mismatch. 347 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,159 Speaker 3: I think we're seeing something historical with the lines. I 348 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 3: think we're seeing something we see generationally, and I think 349 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 3: wise guys here are playing a two game sample size 350 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:20,080 Speaker 3: and betting against a number that I'm not buying. 351 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,880 Speaker 2: The NFL season's rolling along. The contenders are separating from 352 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 2: the pack. The one thing that hasn't changed this season 353 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,639 Speaker 2: is Draft Kings sports Book at official sports book partner 354 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 2: of the NFL are friends at the volume. It's the 355 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 2: number one place to bet touchdowns, fade to the corner 356 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,159 Speaker 2: of the end zone, running back breaks through the line, 357 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 2: gallop sixty yards for a touchdown. 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But I also think the Falcons are rested, 385 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 2: they're at home, and I think they're more explosive offensively. 386 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:18,760 Speaker 2: I feel like with the Chargers, and I've seen this 387 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,920 Speaker 2: now a couple times this year, because they don't have playmakers. 388 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 2: Quentin Johnson officially can't catch that. They score basically on 389 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 2: big drives nine play drives, ten play drives, eleven play drives. Well, 390 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 2: you're asking for perfect football. You know Philadelphia can have penalties. 391 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 2: Saquon Barkley rips off a fifty seven yarder AJ Brown 392 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 2: over the top. You need freebies. You can't live on 393 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 2: twelve play drives. And that's what the Chargers have to do. 394 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 2: And the middle of their interior of their own line 395 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:51,359 Speaker 2: isn't good enough so they get holding calls. They don't 396 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:56,160 Speaker 2: have receivers that separate. I'm guessing the Sharps like Atlanta 397 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 2: plus one at home. 398 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 1: Back and forth. 399 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 3: The line actually moved up from one and a half 400 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 3: to to two and a half. And I think that 401 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:12,359 Speaker 3: the sentiment is that people were actually impressed with the 402 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 3: Chargers and that the difference in that game against the 403 00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 3: Ravens was JK. Dobbins leaving the game and it completely 404 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 3: changed the tenor. And you're right about the offensive line, 405 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:27,119 Speaker 3: especially the interior the offensive line. That's where the Ravens 406 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,439 Speaker 3: were getting pressure. The Falcons can't get pressure. They're not 407 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,120 Speaker 3: the Ravens. They really can't get any pressure at all. 408 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 3: And so that's not expected to be a factor for 409 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:37,800 Speaker 3: the Chargers. 410 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,159 Speaker 1: I will tell you it's sort of and not. 411 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 3: The line has come back down, which tells you that 412 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 3: the wise guys felt the line had gotten too high, 413 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 3: and there's been some buyback. And by the way, this 414 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,159 Speaker 3: is a very common thing. There are a lot of 415 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:54,439 Speaker 3: professional betters who might like the Falcons and want the 416 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 3: line to be a little bit different. So early in 417 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 3: the week, what do they do. They bet on the Chargers, 418 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 3: say five grand ten grand whatever, move the line up, 419 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 3: and then when it gets to a certain point they 420 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 3: bet fifty grand sixty grand on the Falcons. Right, So 421 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 3: they're paying a little bit of a premium to get 422 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,160 Speaker 3: the line to move so they can get better price 423 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 3: on the team they really want. 424 00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 1: That could have happened this week. I don't know. 425 00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:18,720 Speaker 3: I haven't heard that, but it's possible. So there's no 426 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,240 Speaker 3: it's a long way of saying there's no real consensus 427 00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 3: here on what this game should be. 428 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:29,639 Speaker 2: Okay, Chad, And there's always one that I missed. Seahawks 429 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 2: at the Jets is interesting to me. I kind of 430 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 2: like Kansas City, big favorite over the Raiders. I'll stay away. 431 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:37,200 Speaker 2: What's the one I missed? 432 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,920 Speaker 1: Well, look the wise guys like the Jets. I'm sorry 433 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:41,399 Speaker 1: to say. 434 00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 3: It's so interesting because on one New York team, you've 435 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:51,680 Speaker 3: got locker room turmoil, you've got quarterback intrigue, you've got 436 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:55,880 Speaker 3: players who are frustrated with the coaching, you've got an 437 00:23:55,960 --> 00:24:00,159 Speaker 3: owner who is incredibly frustrated with how the person to 438 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:05,320 Speaker 3: know has sort of fleshed out. And then you've got 439 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:09,160 Speaker 3: another New York team where the owner is basically entering 440 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 3: his Montgomery burns phase right, he is taking a helicopter, 441 00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:16,680 Speaker 3: landing it on the field. The GM is standing next 442 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,479 Speaker 3: to a coach when the helicopter lands and said, if 443 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:21,200 Speaker 3: I don't come back, it's been a pleasure to. 444 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 1: Serve with you. 445 00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 3: And then the GM actually gets fired. And this is 446 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,520 Speaker 3: after the coach. The owner had fired the coach without 447 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,199 Speaker 3: telling anybody, and after the owner had traded for a 448 00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 3: receiver without telling anybody, and openly opine, should we be 449 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:38,199 Speaker 3: bencing Annion Rodgers? And yet the wise guys they've been 450 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,680 Speaker 3: betting the Giants, but they like the Jets a lot 451 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,800 Speaker 3: more against Seattle. I think part of it is like 452 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 3: this is the time to grab a number that is 453 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:51,000 Speaker 3: overinflated on Seattle as much as anything else. So they're 454 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 3: on that. The wise guys, of course they're going to 455 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 3: be on the Raiders. It's not even it's not even 456 00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:01,160 Speaker 3: a question. They were on the Raiders when the line 457 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,159 Speaker 3: was at thirteen and a half thirteen, twelve and a 458 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,959 Speaker 3: half twelve. It got that back up by the public 459 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 3: because Aidan O'Connell was announced as the quarterback. The wise 460 00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,040 Speaker 3: guys are now just gonna wait see how much more 461 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:13,880 Speaker 3: they can how much of a better price they can 462 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 3: get between now and kickoff on Friday. They're gonna buy 463 00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:19,880 Speaker 3: the Raiders. 464 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 1: One team that I asked you to look at last week, 465 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:26,920 Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers. 466 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:29,560 Speaker 2: What it works, Anne, what's the line? 467 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:33,680 Speaker 3: The line is six? So the Carolina Tampa Bay hosting 468 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:34,680 Speaker 3: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 469 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:41,440 Speaker 2: So the Carolina Panthers at home plus six against Tampa Bay. Yes, yes, well, 470 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:41,879 Speaker 2: I mean. 471 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 1: TAMPBA wis the wise guys like it. I don't say it. 472 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,840 Speaker 2: Well, Baker played perfect, so they come back down to Earth. 473 00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,159 Speaker 2: I'll be honest with you. I think both Will Levis 474 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 2: and Bryce Young for Tennessee and Carolina respectively, in a 475 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 2: weak college quarterback draft class, have extended their starting franchise 476 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 2: career one more year. I think Bryce Young and Will 477 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:02,880 Speaker 2: Levis looked like, now, let's give them another year. 478 00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:06,200 Speaker 3: I think that's one hundred percent accurate, which is what 479 00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 3: Bryce Young has been the past few games. And so 480 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:14,879 Speaker 3: you know in that Kansas City game, he was throwing darts, yeah, 481 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,720 Speaker 3: and keeping them in the game, and every time you 482 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:22,440 Speaker 3: looked up, they were driving. And the Bucks defense it's 483 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 3: not as good as Kansas City's. They're playing at home 484 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,320 Speaker 3: six points in the division is a ton You're getting 485 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,200 Speaker 3: an inflation on the line because of what the Bucks 486 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:33,880 Speaker 3: just did to the Giants. 487 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,240 Speaker 1: So the wise guys like the Panthers go. 488 00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,800 Speaker 3: Look, I love the Panthers to start the year, and 489 00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 3: they burned me consecutive weeks, so I sort of stayed 490 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 3: away from them and even publicly talking about them. I 491 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 3: went back on them big last week, and I was 492 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 3: glad that I did. I'm a little anxious going back 493 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 3: to the well and the Panthers again, but I have 494 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 3: bet the Panthers at plus six. 495 00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:00,200 Speaker 1: I just feel like it's still a right spot. It's 496 00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,760 Speaker 1: going to change, but I'm hoping that it doesn't this week. 497 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,399 Speaker 2: So I don't throw your curves, but I want to 498 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:09,920 Speaker 2: talk USC Notre Dame. Notre Dame getting plus seven and 499 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,320 Speaker 2: a half so early in the week. I like Notre Dame. 500 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:18,680 Speaker 2: Riley Leonard has cleaned up his game, no turnovers. They 501 00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:21,359 Speaker 2: are a team that runs the football. USC not great 502 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,280 Speaker 2: defending the run, and I think they're well coach. I 503 00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 2: like their culture. USC is playing a quarterback who started 504 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 2: the year on the bench, completes about fifty five percent 505 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 2: of his throws, much looser and mistake prone than Miller Moss, 506 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,000 Speaker 2: but much more athletic. They can move the pocket, which 507 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:43,400 Speaker 2: Lincoln Riley historically likes. USC's got some really nice perimeter weapons. 508 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:48,159 Speaker 2: They're at home, no pressure, I mean, I mean, and 509 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:52,119 Speaker 2: I think USC. They beat LSU, they beat UCLA, and 510 00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:55,439 Speaker 2: they had Penn State beat They're not bad. Every USC 511 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 2: game looks the exact same. It's close, they lead in 512 00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,960 Speaker 2: the fourth, then they even lose to Meryl. So my 513 00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,360 Speaker 2: take is I've gone back and said, you know what, 514 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,240 Speaker 2: they're going to lose, but I'm taking the hook. I'm 515 00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,000 Speaker 2: taking USC plus seven and a half. What are the 516 00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:09,960 Speaker 2: sharp saying on that? 517 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:15,639 Speaker 3: Yeah, if you're getting the hook at home, you should 518 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,359 Speaker 3: be taking it. That's sort of the tipping point in 519 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 3: a game like this. The challenge with everything you've said 520 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:28,120 Speaker 3: is the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame is now fifth 521 00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:32,720 Speaker 3: in the College Football Playoff rankings. Every game, every win, 522 00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:38,400 Speaker 3: every margin of victory, every optic is going to matter 523 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,560 Speaker 3: going forward. And I know they're locked in with Oregon 524 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:46,760 Speaker 3: and Penn State and Ohio State and Texas like those 525 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 3: are the teams that the College Football Playoff is really 526 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:54,200 Speaker 3: thinking about as one through four. But Notre Dame is 527 00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:57,520 Speaker 3: still playing for something that matters in terms of positioning 528 00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,120 Speaker 3: with the people with the teams behind them. So that's 529 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:04,200 Speaker 3: what scares me a little bit about this game and USC. 530 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 3: You're not wrong, but some of these games you're talking about, 531 00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 3: they were earlier in the year and they were a 532 00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:13,440 Speaker 3: different team, and there's been a lot of turmoil with 533 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 3: that organization the past month, between the changing and the quarterbacks, 534 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:22,720 Speaker 3: between the fines, you know, people, the recruits who have 535 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:26,400 Speaker 3: been decommitting and going to other places. You know that 536 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,760 Speaker 3: USC team and culture much better than I do, but 537 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:35,440 Speaker 3: that feels like an organization where they need this to 538 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,000 Speaker 3: be a competitive game in a different way than Notre 539 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,040 Speaker 3: Dame does. And Notre Dame is playing for something right 540 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 3: now that feels much much bigger to me than what 541 00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 3: USC is playing for. I'm waffling here. You take the hook, 542 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 3: but it's not a game I want any piece. 543 00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:54,959 Speaker 2: Of, all right, that's fair. Yeah, it's funny about this 544 00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 2: transfer Portal Colorado, LSU, and USC have used it a lot, 545 00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,920 Speaker 2: and all three of them the season's always end disappointing. 546 00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:07,320 Speaker 2: Why Because, in my opinion, this is one of my 547 00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 2: theories that you can use the transfer portal to plug holes. 548 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,400 Speaker 2: It's very hard to build a culture with all the 549 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:17,000 Speaker 2: interlopers and newcomers, and so what happens over the course 550 00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,920 Speaker 2: of a season at USC, LSU and Colorado when you 551 00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,920 Speaker 2: face adversity is when you need a great culture. And 552 00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:26,960 Speaker 2: they have better talent, but they don't have great cultures. 553 00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:28,800 Speaker 2: They don't have guys that have been together for four 554 00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:33,360 Speaker 2: years since high school, and so LSU Colorado USC heavy 555 00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:37,760 Speaker 2: transfer portal, whereas a Notre Dame very little transfer portal, 556 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 2: great culture with Marcus Freeman. They had an early loss 557 00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:48,400 Speaker 2: that was awful. They've gotten stronger because their culture is better. 558 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:52,040 Speaker 2: So you look at these teams that had early setbacks, 559 00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:58,600 Speaker 2: and setbacks can splinter locker rooms and these heavy transfer 560 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,360 Speaker 2: portal teams, they all bad. At the end of the season, 561 00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:03,200 Speaker 2: a lot of people start going their own way. The 562 00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:06,960 Speaker 2: nil guys are looking at the pros so ole Miss 563 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,880 Speaker 2: by the way, everybody loves old Miss. Yeah, what happens 564 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:13,800 Speaker 2: against an inferior Florida team they don't play well. Guys 565 00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,120 Speaker 2: now are going to start heading in their own directions. 566 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,720 Speaker 2: So that's what I think I found from the transfer portal. 567 00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:22,240 Speaker 2: I can think two things. I like it, but I 568 00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:25,239 Speaker 2: wouldn't want to build around it. It's important, but I 569 00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 2: don't want it to be my primary infrastructure. 570 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,840 Speaker 3: I'm going to give you an example that supports both 571 00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:37,760 Speaker 3: sides of your theory. Indiana Hoosiers, who I went to Indiana. 572 00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:40,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, I love them. I've been so excited for this 573 00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:41,600 Speaker 1: team all year. 574 00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:49,080 Speaker 3: Obviously, heavy portalnetty, they use the transfer portal heavily. But 575 00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:53,640 Speaker 3: what they did was they basically took the entire team 576 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:58,080 Speaker 3: from James Madison and plug them in. So, yeah, it 577 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,040 Speaker 3: worked for them. But the reason it for them is 578 00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:05,200 Speaker 3: because they maintained a culture that existed with Chrit Signetti 579 00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,200 Speaker 3: from where he was before and then brought it to Bloomington. 580 00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:12,200 Speaker 3: And that's translated in a very successful way. And what's 581 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:15,440 Speaker 3: more interesting to me also about this is I think 582 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,760 Speaker 3: there is an opportunity for teams like Indiana, who have 583 00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:24,840 Speaker 3: been middling teams to get the fourth fifth year seniors 584 00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 3: who want to keep playing college football. They might not 585 00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:34,640 Speaker 3: be great NFL players, but they're incredibly effective, productive, workman 586 00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:39,040 Speaker 3: like college football players and their adults. So instead of 587 00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,480 Speaker 3: the sophomore five star who's not getting any playing time 588 00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,760 Speaker 3: and is transferring from Texas to Ole Miss. 589 00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 1: They're getting the. 590 00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:51,160 Speaker 3: Fourth year Matt quarterback who was really good and is 591 00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:53,960 Speaker 3: time to see if he can stretch his game to 592 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 3: the next level. And he's an adult, and that's just 593 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,120 Speaker 3: a different kind of player in college football. I'm not 594 00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,960 Speaker 3: saying now Indiana has a ceiling on this. We saw 595 00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,080 Speaker 3: it against Ohio State. You got to get athletes and 596 00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:07,600 Speaker 3: people on the edge and all that kind of stuff. 597 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,040 Speaker 3: But I think you can build a really successful program 598 00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:13,200 Speaker 3: through the portal if you're getting guys who are just 599 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:17,400 Speaker 3: great college football players and not necessarily the highest ceiling athletes. 600 00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,480 Speaker 2: Let me throw this at you, speaking of college football. 601 00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:25,120 Speaker 2: Ryan Day is sixty six and nine. Obviously he's lost 602 00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:29,160 Speaker 2: to good teams Clemson, Georgia, Michigan three times. You know, 603 00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,800 Speaker 2: he's beating everybody else, beating the brains in and you 604 00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:35,640 Speaker 2: know again lost to Oregon. Well, everybody loses it ops 605 00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:39,920 Speaker 2: and except the Ducks. Right. So the one thing about 606 00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:43,480 Speaker 2: Ohio State in the playoff that is really interesting. So 607 00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:49,240 Speaker 2: people think, huh, if Ryan Day beats Michigan, finally the 608 00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:53,120 Speaker 2: Wolves will scale back. But the next week it's Oregon. 609 00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,320 Speaker 2: You can't lose to Oregon twice with Ohio States. So 610 00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 2: let's say he beats Michigan and Oregon. Oh, all the 611 00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,600 Speaker 2: wars are gone. But he loses to Tennessee in the 612 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,719 Speaker 2: first round. You're like, wait a minute, I saw who 613 00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:10,279 Speaker 2: Tennessee lost to. Tennessee's not a great team. Let's say 614 00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,000 Speaker 2: they beat Tennessee but then lose to a like, you know, 615 00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,319 Speaker 2: a Boise State, or they lose to an Arizona State 616 00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:18,439 Speaker 2: or somebody else. He's gonna get crushed. Ohio State goes 617 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:22,040 Speaker 2: into the playoff. They're the only team in the playoff 618 00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:26,760 Speaker 2: where every single game could potentially get their coach fire 619 00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:32,640 Speaker 2: with a sixty six and nine, and that dress that 620 00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,880 Speaker 2: pressure on Ryan Day and his staff. Like, people want 621 00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:40,799 Speaker 2: Sark to win, but Texas has stunk pre Sark for 622 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,520 Speaker 2: about twenty years. They're happy as hell. They're going to 623 00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:45,879 Speaker 2: get into the playoff for the second year in a row, 624 00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:47,560 Speaker 2: and they're just too damn good not to win a 625 00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:50,799 Speaker 2: couple of games. And so Sark. If Sark wins two 626 00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:52,600 Speaker 2: games in the playoff and loses, he's going to retain 627 00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:56,719 Speaker 2: his job. No other team, no other coaching staff faces Oh, 628 00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:58,879 Speaker 2: you've got to get to the final and if they 629 00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:02,360 Speaker 2: get to the final and lose an overtime to Texas. Okay, 630 00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:04,120 Speaker 2: if they go to the final and get blown out 631 00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:08,200 Speaker 2: by Texas, that's not good enough. So I think Ohio 632 00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:11,960 Speaker 2: State faces this top down pressure from their fan base. 633 00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:14,160 Speaker 2: I mean, they went all in on the NAL. Let's 634 00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:16,600 Speaker 2: spilt like twenty million dollars in the NAAL. They went 635 00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,680 Speaker 2: and got Chip Kelly. I don't know if you could 636 00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:22,040 Speaker 2: win a national title with that sort of intense insular pressure. 637 00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:25,839 Speaker 3: Well, he has to win the national title with that 638 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:31,479 Speaker 3: intense insular pressure, because I don't think there is any 639 00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:35,600 Speaker 3: other out if he doesn't win. They've built a coaching 640 00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:40,080 Speaker 3: staff for it, they've built a roster for it, they 641 00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:42,879 Speaker 3: have given him every opportunity. He has not been able 642 00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:46,840 Speaker 3: to beat Michigan. He could not win in the national 643 00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:50,680 Speaker 3: title experience a few years ago, right, even though you 644 00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:53,799 Speaker 3: know CJ. Stroud and they lost Marvin Harrison and like 645 00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:57,440 Speaker 3: it was a difficult circumstance, they still couldn't win. So 646 00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,839 Speaker 3: the fact is he is under the most pressure of 647 00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:03,800 Speaker 3: any coach going into the playoff. 648 00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:04,400 Speaker 1: You're not wrong. 649 00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,239 Speaker 3: A lot of those coaches, like whether they win or not, 650 00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:10,719 Speaker 3: they're gonna be fine for the next year. Ryan Day 651 00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:13,839 Speaker 3: has not won enough at a school that expects nothing 652 00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:15,120 Speaker 3: less than national titles. 653 00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:17,160 Speaker 1: In fact, he's faltered. 654 00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,960 Speaker 3: In humiliating ways in the games that matter the most. 655 00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:23,680 Speaker 3: They if they go ten to one, eleven and one, 656 00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:25,440 Speaker 3: twelve and one every year and they don't beat Michigan 657 00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:28,680 Speaker 3: and they don't win a national title, they're irrelevant. They're 658 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:32,839 Speaker 3: just another franchise. So couldn't agree more. I had this 659 00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:37,520 Speaker 3: conversation also about Nick Sirianni. You know, the Eagles, all 660 00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:39,120 Speaker 3: of a sudden, they've won seven in a row. They're 661 00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:41,840 Speaker 3: finally playing well, Like Sae Kwon Barkley is going off, 662 00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,960 Speaker 3: they like the Lions have a dominant offensive line. Their 663 00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:49,919 Speaker 3: defensive line behind Jalen Carter is playing incredibly well. Their 664 00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:53,400 Speaker 3: secondary Cooper dejen Like has been one of the top corners. 665 00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:55,840 Speaker 3: Quintin Mitchell that one of the top quarters in the 666 00:36:55,960 --> 00:37:02,000 Speaker 3: NFL in terms of coverage rookies. Right, Nick Sirianni goes 667 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,640 Speaker 3: to the NFC title game and loses. I don't think 668 00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:07,560 Speaker 3: he's coming back. I think they'll look at it and say, 669 00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:09,600 Speaker 3: this team's talent level is amazing. 670 00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:11,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, we need to coach you can get us to 671 00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:13,240 Speaker 1: the next level. So I think you're a couple coaches 672 00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:14,239 Speaker 1: who are on spots like that. 673 00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,320 Speaker 2: Did you know that feeding your lawn regularly builds a stronger, 674 00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:22,480 Speaker 2: more resilient lawn that naturally crowds out weeds. Scott's Turf 675 00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:26,240 Speaker 2: Builder products provide a year round feeding with essential seasonal 676 00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,279 Speaker 2: solutions for your lawn. They have a subscription plan that 677 00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:32,160 Speaker 2: makes caring for your lawn easier than ever. They put 678 00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:35,279 Speaker 2: their expertise to work by analyzing the location, size, and 679 00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,920 Speaker 2: condition of your lawn to create a custom plan for 680 00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,080 Speaker 2: your yard, and they'll ship you the right product to 681 00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:42,839 Speaker 2: apply at the perfect time. It's easy. By answering only 682 00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:46,040 Speaker 2: a few short questions about your lawn, Scott's experts craft 683 00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:48,399 Speaker 2: the program that's right for you in your yard. Visit 684 00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:51,279 Speaker 2: Scotts dot com to learn more. It's really easy feed 685 00:37:51,320 --> 00:38:00,000 Speaker 2: your lawn. Feed it so once they went to it. 686 00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:04,200 Speaker 2: Second letter of intent day in college football and the 687 00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:07,240 Speaker 2: transfer portal, where you're recruiting your own players as much 688 00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:11,080 Speaker 2: to stay as much as you are exterior players to 689 00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:14,400 Speaker 2: enter college football is not nearly as appealing. You get 690 00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:19,560 Speaker 2: very little time off. You're dealing with the NCAA collectives, donors, presidents, 691 00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:21,520 Speaker 2: I mean the collectives. You have to be a GM 692 00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:24,600 Speaker 2: and you have to be a coach. So I always 693 00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:26,879 Speaker 2: thought if I like I asked Jimmy Johnson the other 694 00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:29,000 Speaker 2: day we were at Fox and I said, what was 695 00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:31,719 Speaker 2: more fun? College or pro? He goes, Oh, college is 696 00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:34,640 Speaker 2: way more fun. I mean you're connecting with young kids. 697 00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:36,000 Speaker 2: You're changing their lives. 698 00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:36,799 Speaker 1: He goes. 699 00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:38,480 Speaker 2: You know, you go into eighty your games with the 700 00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:41,640 Speaker 2: talent advantage, you got two or three big games. It's fun. 701 00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,000 Speaker 2: You and the staff can go grab petz Is twice 702 00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,520 Speaker 2: a week. It's fun. NFL you have to be a 703 00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:50,239 Speaker 2: hard ass. You're constantly dealing with a crazy owner. You're 704 00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:53,680 Speaker 2: constantly having to be a tough coach on your coaches 705 00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:57,759 Speaker 2: because they develop close relationships with players. Because players can 706 00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,600 Speaker 2: stay eight, nine, ten years in college, you're running through players. 707 00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,759 Speaker 2: They cycle through NFL. You know, a great defensive end 708 00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:06,120 Speaker 2: could stay with you eight years. He becomes best friends. 709 00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:08,680 Speaker 2: You know, they're going to the weddings of the coaches 710 00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:10,680 Speaker 2: and the players. So you constantly have to be on 711 00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:13,480 Speaker 2: your assistant coaches and coordinators to be hard asses. He goes, 712 00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:17,440 Speaker 2: it's just a lot of work, and I thought, you know, Dion, 713 00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:22,640 Speaker 2: I if I said Dion goes pro or Dion just 714 00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:26,239 Speaker 2: upgrades to a bigger college program, because I don't think 715 00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:28,840 Speaker 2: he stays at Colorado forever. I think it's a cool story. 716 00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:32,400 Speaker 2: He doesn't need the money or the NFL pension, so 717 00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,560 Speaker 2: it's not a money thing with him. He's gonna make 718 00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:38,200 Speaker 2: eight ten wherever he goes or more. Do you but 719 00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:41,400 Speaker 2: do you think he will follow his son to the 720 00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:45,200 Speaker 2: pros or go to a bigger college job. Let's just 721 00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,800 Speaker 2: take staying at Colorado for ten years off the table. 722 00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,080 Speaker 2: He may, but let's take it off the table. I 723 00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:51,960 Speaker 2: can see him going to an Auburn. I can see 724 00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,320 Speaker 2: him going to like a like a non traditional power, 725 00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:57,880 Speaker 2: but like a good program, like an Auburn, that kind 726 00:39:57,920 --> 00:39:59,920 Speaker 2: of thing. Where do you think Dion goes in wa? 727 00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:05,400 Speaker 1: Well, I know what I want. I want Dion in 728 00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:06,040 Speaker 1: the NFL. 729 00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:12,200 Speaker 3: I think it'd be fascinating as an experiment because how 730 00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:13,680 Speaker 3: many players. 731 00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:17,880 Speaker 1: Are as respected by his players as Dione. 732 00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,759 Speaker 3: Right, he is a Hall of Fame athlete, not just 733 00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:23,240 Speaker 3: a guy who's a great football player. 734 00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:25,480 Speaker 1: He was a legendary athlete. 735 00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:28,319 Speaker 3: He was doing things that we will be remembered for 736 00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:30,480 Speaker 3: generations and a lot of the players he's going to 737 00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:33,640 Speaker 3: be coaching. We're not alive when he was playing baseball 738 00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:36,360 Speaker 3: and football and he was going to the World Series 739 00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:38,879 Speaker 3: and then he was playing in NFL games. I mean, 740 00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:43,240 Speaker 3: the guy is just so revered. It'd be like Alan 741 00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:48,840 Speaker 3: Iverson coaching an NBA team. That's how revered the guy is. 742 00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:51,480 Speaker 3: So I want to see if his ego and his 743 00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:55,600 Speaker 3: strategy and his ability to motivate can do that at 744 00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:57,480 Speaker 3: the NFL level with professionals. 745 00:40:57,800 --> 00:40:59,800 Speaker 1: How long will it last? Jim Harbaugh. 746 00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:02,719 Speaker 3: One of the problems Jim Harborough has had as a 747 00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:07,680 Speaker 3: coach is that his tactics and his personality starts to 748 00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:10,480 Speaker 3: wear thin on the people around him. It's what happened 749 00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:13,000 Speaker 3: in San Francisco. It happened a little bit at Michigan 750 00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:15,920 Speaker 3: until he finally started winning a national title and started 751 00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:17,400 Speaker 3: getting that team into the playoff, and then all of 752 00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:21,040 Speaker 3: a sudden he had the leverage to leave. So I 753 00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:25,000 Speaker 3: don't know how long Dion could last doing what he's 754 00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:27,799 Speaker 3: doing because I don't know if Like I am fascinated 755 00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:32,000 Speaker 3: by his videos and watching his motivational speeches for his 756 00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:35,719 Speaker 3: team and watching how he handles the press, and I 757 00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:39,920 Speaker 3: think he's really good at it and will that work 758 00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:45,520 Speaker 3: as a molder of young men on players that are 759 00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:50,640 Speaker 3: already adults and already making all that money. I think 760 00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:53,400 Speaker 3: he's in a great spot in college. I hope that 761 00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:56,239 Speaker 3: he knows it. I love it as a fan to 762 00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:59,200 Speaker 3: see him in the NFL, But I got to think 763 00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:01,160 Speaker 3: he knows how great in college because he knows how 764 00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,120 Speaker 3: hard it is to coach in the pros because he 765 00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:04,279 Speaker 3: was that elite guy. 766 00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:10,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's you know, can I throw one more thing 767 00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,160 Speaker 2: at you because we're doing a little longer version today, 768 00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:15,520 Speaker 2: al Throya, let's do it. I love looking at great 769 00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:20,399 Speaker 2: businesses and thinking, yeah, but there's a hole in the business, right, 770 00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:24,400 Speaker 2: Like there's a hole in the business, and so you know, 771 00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:29,080 Speaker 2: like like I'll give you an example. I worry that 772 00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:33,359 Speaker 2: the NFL is becoming the NBA. So here's where it 773 00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:37,120 Speaker 2: won't be the NBA. It won't be as international hockey 774 00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:43,040 Speaker 2: basketball get very international. We don't follow international leagues a 775 00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:45,080 Speaker 2: lot of these stars, you know, we don't watch Jokic 776 00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:48,120 Speaker 2: play at March Madness. He's a second round pick by 777 00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:50,640 Speaker 2: the time he's a star. Unless you watch the NBA nightly, 778 00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:54,400 Speaker 2: you don't watch Denver, whereas NFL will always have a 779 00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:57,200 Speaker 2: great advantage over all the other sports is we watch 780 00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:00,280 Speaker 2: college football. We don't watch much college baseball, college high hockey, 781 00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:03,880 Speaker 2: college basketball a little. But international players are half the 782 00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:07,520 Speaker 2: guys drafted, so that'll never be a problem. But I 783 00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:12,040 Speaker 2: do I'm seeing something this year that the middle of 784 00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:15,040 Speaker 2: the NBA has always been soft and the bottom is 785 00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:19,000 Speaker 2: awful and large that if you do not have two, 786 00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:23,879 Speaker 2: like really high end players, you're not elite. So right 787 00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,480 Speaker 2: now in the NBA, there's about six really good teams. 788 00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:31,320 Speaker 2: The Knicks are really good. I think Cleveland, Boston, OKC, Denver, 789 00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:35,000 Speaker 2: Minnesota is really good, although that Julius Randall thing may 790 00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:37,200 Speaker 2: not work. There's about six to seven teams I like. 791 00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:40,960 Speaker 2: There's a very soft middle where you drop off to 792 00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:43,960 Speaker 2: like the Warriors, who are fun but nobody thinks they 793 00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:46,040 Speaker 2: can win a title, and the bottom is mostly the 794 00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:49,640 Speaker 2: Eastern Conference. It's awful. It's ten teams right now in 795 00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,200 Speaker 2: the NFL, so I never thought about that. I always 796 00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,359 Speaker 2: thought the NFL was have have nots, but the have 797 00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:58,000 Speaker 2: notts were really small. You start looking at the bottom 798 00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:01,080 Speaker 2: of this league now because one months, ten years ago, 799 00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:05,799 Speaker 2: the rules changed after the CTE lawsuit to protect quarterbacks. 800 00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:09,560 Speaker 2: So it's a very offensive league. The final four coaches 801 00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:12,200 Speaker 2: now several years in a row, all offensive guys. Even 802 00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:14,360 Speaker 2: guys like Zach Taylor, we don't know are great coaches. 803 00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:19,360 Speaker 2: Belichick look completely lost, Pete Carroll great defensive coaches. You 804 00:44:19,360 --> 00:44:21,680 Speaker 2: feel like they're tone def to the league. Mike Tomlin 805 00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:23,719 Speaker 2: is having a good year, but for five years he 806 00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:26,799 Speaker 2: couldn't figure out the O line, the run game. And 807 00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:32,120 Speaker 2: so the league now is if you look at the 808 00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:34,360 Speaker 2: teams we think can win the Super Bowl, it's mostly 809 00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:37,640 Speaker 2: the same teams. It's Baltimore, it's Kansas City, it's Buffalo, 810 00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:41,200 Speaker 2: it's I mean, now we look at Philadelphia and there's 811 00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:43,200 Speaker 2: a couple of teams like Detroit's a surprised, but they 812 00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,480 Speaker 2: have a super Bowl quarterback in Jared Goff is that 813 00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:49,680 Speaker 2: the NFL's middle is getting larger, the bottom is awful 814 00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:53,200 Speaker 2: and getting larger, and that it's because if you don't 815 00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:57,480 Speaker 2: have a star quarterback now you just you can't compete. 816 00:44:57,000 --> 00:44:59,640 Speaker 2: By week nine, ten eleven, I mean, we were in 817 00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:02,240 Speaker 2: week eleven and we're like, I think there's three teams 818 00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:05,759 Speaker 2: tanking like, ooh, that's an NBA vibe that I never 819 00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:08,799 Speaker 2: had in the NFL. So this is my take, is 820 00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:11,319 Speaker 2: that what the NFL will never be the NBA. We 821 00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:15,000 Speaker 2: watch it, we bet it. It has a domestic farm 822 00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:19,280 Speaker 2: system that we love. But I do see this growing 823 00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:23,120 Speaker 2: middle and bottom. And I mean there are a lot 824 00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:26,319 Speaker 2: of corner TV games every Sunday, Like used to be one, 825 00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,880 Speaker 2: it's now six. Do you worry about this? Do you 826 00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:30,279 Speaker 2: see this? 827 00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:32,560 Speaker 1: I do see this. 828 00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:39,160 Speaker 3: As with all things, follow the money, right, if you 829 00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:44,480 Speaker 3: look at the betting stats four years, the strategy has 830 00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:49,080 Speaker 3: been fade the public, you know, just bet against whatever 831 00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:50,080 Speaker 3: the public is doing. 832 00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:53,279 Speaker 1: This year, you cannot do that. 833 00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:56,480 Speaker 3: You know, we've talked about this, right, What did a 834 00:45:56,520 --> 00:46:01,400 Speaker 3: couple of the operators in their earnings calls at the 835 00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:06,720 Speaker 3: end of Q three had to downgrade the revenue expectations 836 00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:10,040 Speaker 3: for the year by a combined three hundred million dollars 837 00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:16,640 Speaker 3: because of what they deemed euphemistically customer friendly outcomes. What 838 00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:19,920 Speaker 3: that means is that the favorites, the teams that the 839 00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:25,400 Speaker 3: public bets on, are crushing. And that happened starting in 840 00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:30,480 Speaker 3: October and is continued into November. So that's one way 841 00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:32,560 Speaker 3: to look at is the teams that are really really 842 00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:36,560 Speaker 3: good are winning by really big margins, and that is 843 00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:40,240 Speaker 3: not how it has historically been because the delta between 844 00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:44,080 Speaker 3: the really really good and the mediocre was still not 845 00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:44,800 Speaker 3: as big. 846 00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:46,760 Speaker 1: As it is now. That's Number one. 847 00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:51,360 Speaker 3: I do think that these NFL games, they are becoming unwatchable, 848 00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:54,759 Speaker 3: and you're getting a sense from the announcers about this, 849 00:46:55,040 --> 00:47:00,319 Speaker 3: like the number of penalties that are about procedures that 850 00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:04,600 Speaker 3: are impacting the game and changing the flow and changing 851 00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:09,280 Speaker 3: sometimes the outcome, and changing a scoring play and taking 852 00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:12,040 Speaker 3: some of the excitement out of the game. I don't 853 00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:14,359 Speaker 3: know what the NFL does about that, because they are 854 00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:18,399 Speaker 3: always talking about emphasizing certain plays. They want to emphasize 855 00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:22,120 Speaker 3: where the player, where the offensive linemen are lining up, 856 00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:25,520 Speaker 3: so they're at the beltline of the center. They want 857 00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:29,600 Speaker 3: to make sure that offensive linemen aren't going too far downfield. 858 00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:32,759 Speaker 3: But everybody likes to run these RPOs and it's impossible 859 00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:35,719 Speaker 3: for an offensive lineman to keep their positioning within two 860 00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:38,719 Speaker 3: yards of the line of scrimmage. But these penalties are 861 00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:45,360 Speaker 3: killing viewing experience as a fan. So that's two. Number three, 862 00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:50,680 Speaker 3: It is a terrible live experience. And you know, a 863 00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:54,320 Speaker 3: few weeks ago I did this with my kid were 864 00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:57,879 Speaker 3: we went to Knicks Bowls at MSG in New York. 865 00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:00,239 Speaker 3: The next night I did a show with you, and 866 00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:03,960 Speaker 3: then right after we went to Commander's Eagles at the 867 00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:07,000 Speaker 3: Lincoln Philadelphia. And then the next day we took a 868 00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:09,120 Speaker 3: tour of University of Maryland. We took the train down 869 00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:11,520 Speaker 3: to DC toward Maryland, and then we went to the 870 00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:16,600 Speaker 3: Maryland Marquee game that night. The basketball experiences live we're 871 00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:21,560 Speaker 3: so much better than the NFL experience. It is faster, 872 00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:25,680 Speaker 3: it is more exciting. My going to NBA games, it's 873 00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:28,080 Speaker 3: like the NFL game there was three seconds of action 874 00:48:28,239 --> 00:48:30,120 Speaker 3: and then it's a commercial break, and then you're waiting 875 00:48:30,120 --> 00:48:32,120 Speaker 3: for two minutes, and then it's a penalty, and then 876 00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:35,200 Speaker 3: you're waiting for two minutes, and it's just like, let's 877 00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:41,480 Speaker 3: have a game here, guys, and so like, look, it's 878 00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:42,520 Speaker 3: it's it's all. 879 00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:44,600 Speaker 1: A strong man argument. The NFL is not going anywhere. 880 00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:46,839 Speaker 3: The NFL is only going to get bigger, it is 881 00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:49,520 Speaker 3: going to get somewhat international. The NBA will never be 882 00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:51,840 Speaker 3: as big as the NFL. It is going to suffer 883 00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:53,880 Speaker 3: on Christmas Day when the NFL has games, and the 884 00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:58,840 Speaker 3: NBA used to own that space. But the NFL is 885 00:48:59,719 --> 00:49:03,920 Speaker 3: going to have to come to an understanding of what 886 00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:07,760 Speaker 3: this television experience is because if there is this gap 887 00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:11,359 Speaker 3: between the good teams and the bad teams, and every 888 00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:12,879 Speaker 3: game is going to be a blowout and every game 889 00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:14,200 Speaker 3: is going to take three and a half hours because 890 00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:18,760 Speaker 3: there's so many penalties, eventually it might not be our lifetime. 891 00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:21,080 Speaker 1: The world is going to turn. 892 00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:27,919 Speaker 2: Chad Milman. All those odds provided by DraftKings. By the way, 893 00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:31,040 Speaker 2: this was a good, long one. Happy thanks enjoyed it. 894 00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:36,520 Speaker 2: Happy Thanksgiving. I'm thankful for a lot of things. You 895 00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:42,120 Speaker 2: know what. I'm thankful for everything, sports, family, health, sports, 896 00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:46,640 Speaker 2: good friends. You know, it's funny. I told somebody the 897 00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:50,239 Speaker 2: other day, I said, I said, I've always been sort 898 00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:53,959 Speaker 2: of odds socially. I said, I think I'm getting better 899 00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:56,680 Speaker 2: at that. If I die tomorrow, I know at least 900 00:49:56,680 --> 00:50:00,440 Speaker 2: eleven people that would go to my funeral. Last year 901 00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:04,640 Speaker 2: it was only like six. So I'm really I'm really 902 00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:08,040 Speaker 2: starting to be I'm growing as a human being, and 903 00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:08,840 Speaker 2: I'm thankful for that. 904 00:50:09,719 --> 00:50:13,799 Speaker 3: Well, there's a comfort level as you get older, I 905 00:50:13,840 --> 00:50:16,160 Speaker 3: am thankful for all those things as well, and like 906 00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:19,560 Speaker 3: I got a great life. I have nothing to complain about. 907 00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:24,160 Speaker 3: It's like I can't believe how wonderful things are. But 908 00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:30,920 Speaker 3: what I have found similar to you socially, I like, 909 00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:35,759 Speaker 3: I'm not like I don't love going to parties. Yeah, same, 910 00:50:36,680 --> 00:50:41,640 Speaker 3: And I don't love like going out to dinner, but 911 00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:45,680 Speaker 3: I do it, and like there are always points in 912 00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:47,520 Speaker 3: the evening when I'm I'm like, all right, I gotta go, 913 00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:51,360 Speaker 3: and I'll say it like you know, right as dessert 914 00:50:51,680 --> 00:50:53,840 Speaker 3: is the last bite of deserters, I'm like, I gotta 915 00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:55,960 Speaker 3: get out here, I gotta go, and my wife Stacy 916 00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:59,080 Speaker 3: will be like, I can't, Like you just can't do it. 917 00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:02,120 Speaker 3: And I found myself this past weekend. We were out 918 00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:05,279 Speaker 3: with friends that we both have mutual friends and we 919 00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:07,560 Speaker 3: were just relaxing and I was enjoying and I was 920 00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:10,319 Speaker 3: hearing stories, and I find myself having a lot more 921 00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:13,040 Speaker 3: patience and being a lot more interested in listening to 922 00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:16,640 Speaker 3: people more. I don't know what's going on, but I 923 00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:19,279 Speaker 3: don't I don't mind it. And it means if it 924 00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:23,080 Speaker 3: means I get twelve people at my funeral, fantastic. 925 00:51:22,719 --> 00:51:25,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, Chad doesn't know what's happening, but he's interested in 926 00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:28,520 Speaker 2: other people's thoughts now and he doesn't know what to 927 00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:29,080 Speaker 2: make of it. 928 00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:36,359 Speaker 1: That's funny, totally just summed it up. What is It's like? 929 00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:40,760 Speaker 3: It's like in Seinfeld, what is this salty discharge coming 930 00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:41,640 Speaker 3: from my eyes? 931 00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:41,799 Speaker 2: Like? 932 00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:45,680 Speaker 1: Why is Chad showing interest in other people? What is 933 00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:51,240 Speaker 1: happening here? So true? I'm such an asshole. 934 00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:54,200 Speaker 2: No, my favorite people. That's it. 935 00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:56,920 Speaker 1: You're honest, all right, brother, have a great Thanksgiving? 936 00:51:56,920 --> 00:52:04,400 Speaker 2: All right, the volume. Let's talk about something really really important. 937 00:52:04,440 --> 00:52:08,560 Speaker 2: If you're ever injured, check out Morgan and Morgan's America's 938 00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:12,479 Speaker 2: largest injury law firm, and they're there for you. Over 939 00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:15,759 Speaker 2: one hundred offices nationwide. Think about that, more than a 940 00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:19,680 Speaker 2: thousand lawyers with over twenty billion. That's a B twenty 941 00:52:19,719 --> 00:52:23,880 Speaker 2: billion dollars recovered for over five hundred thousand clients. Things 942 00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:28,200 Speaker 2: happen in life unexpectedly. Submitting an injury claim with Morgan 943 00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:30,440 Speaker 2: and Morgan is really really easy. 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