1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:01,120 Speaker 1: Ron An Aian. 2 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 2: Part of the problem in diagnosing a vehicle. For me, 3 00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:06,080 Speaker 2: it gets to be emotional. 4 00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:08,160 Speaker 3: If we are to truly discover the meaning of these events. 5 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:11,360 Speaker 4: Absolution for the turn being. 6 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 2: Lent them on the. 7 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 1: Phone the car Doctor. 8 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:18,599 Speaker 2: If you let your emotions get involved, this car's a 9 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:20,599 Speaker 2: piece of junk. This car's a piece of junk. This 10 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 2: car's a piece of junk. And it's not like that 11 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 2: that has to go to the back of your mind. 12 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 2: It has to be what's the source of the problem. 13 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 2: What steps am I going to take to resolve? 14 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 3: Are you incapable of restraining ourselves? Would you take pride 15 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 3: in being an insufferable. 16 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:37,479 Speaker 1: Knowitable Welcome to the radio home of ron Anian the 17 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 1: Car Doctor. Since nineteen ninety one, this is where car 18 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: owners the world overturned to for their definitive opinion on 19 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 1: automotive repair. If your mechanics giving you a busy signal, 20 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: pick up the phone and call in. The garage doors. 21 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 2: Are open, but I am here to take your call 22 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 2: at eight five five five six ninety. 23 00:00:56,280 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 1: Nine hundred and now he is running. 24 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 2: Welcome listeners, good to be here with you today. We're 25 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 2: going to dive right into it once again. We welcome 26 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 2: back Mark Mills, and we're gonna be talking electric vehicles. 27 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:12,559 Speaker 2: So sit down, stay tuned, and get ready for a shock, 28 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 2: no pun intended. Mark, welcome back, sir, Hope all as well, Yes, sir, 29 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 2: thank you very much. It's good to have you. Yep, 30 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 2: let's dive right into it. You know, in the news recently, well, 31 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 2: two things I want to talk about in the news. 32 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 2: Keep in mind, I want to talk a little bit 33 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 2: before the end of this hour with you. Germany just 34 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 2: did something very interesting with EV's right, they dropped the 35 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 2: subsidies I think it was, But I also want to 36 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 2: I also want to talk a little bit about you know, 37 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 2: I keep reading how coming out of Washington, the government 38 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 2: is trying these mandates on appliances. And I know that's 39 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 2: not necessarily a car show story or an EV story, 40 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 2: but that appliance mentality about trying to make all the 41 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 2: appliances green. There's an EV guideline to that also, is 42 00:01:57,520 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 2: there not? I mean, don't they tie them together? 43 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 3: Well, they're tied together first philosophically in this sense that 44 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 3: we have Washington bureaucrats mandating what kind of products you 45 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 3: can use or have, not not regulating if you like 46 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 3: their physical safety, you know, like underwriter's lapse, but mandating 47 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 3: what you're allowed to buy, banning your ability to purchase 48 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 3: certain kinds of products, So it's exactly the same the idea. 49 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:28,239 Speaker 3: Many states have tried this, a number half certain California 50 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 3: that Big Main is going to do it next is 51 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 3: make it illegal for you to purchase a gas water 52 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 3: heater or a gas furnace or gas appliance or stole 53 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 3: for your home. So a product that is in widespread 54 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 3: use for well we'll call it centuries certainly and globally 55 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 3: in widespread use, it will now be banned. And it's 56 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 3: like banning cigarettes, I mean the people, and we didn't. 57 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 3: By the way, not to use a HAMDHND analogy, cigarettes 58 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 3: are not banned, even though there probably isn't a single 59 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 3: listener listening who doesn't think, even if they're smokers, the 60 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 3: cigarettes don't hurt you. I mean, come on, you could 61 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 3: do lots of things that hurt you that you enjoy. 62 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:14,920 Speaker 3: I get that for human But the government is long 63 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:18,639 Speaker 3: held that cigarettes are dangerous, and we didn't ban cigarettes, 64 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 3: which affirmatively hurt people and cause insurance costs go up 65 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 3: in the health industry, healthcare industry. So here we come along, 66 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:33,639 Speaker 3: and for the putative assumption that some small incremental benefit 67 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 3: to the far future from not burning natural gas in 68 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 3: your home in emitting carbon dioxide, we should ban a product. 69 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 3: I mean, I never mind the motivation, the idea behind 70 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 3: it is really offensive. So I save for cars. I'm 71 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 3: going to ban the sale of internal combustion engines. So 72 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 3: far in twelve states, d C is just getting ready 73 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 3: to do it next in at least a dozen countries 74 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 3: have stood up to do that, and the EPA's new 75 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 3: rule would expectively ban internal combustion sales for sort of 76 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 3: seventy eighty percent of all vehicles by twenty thirty two. 77 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 3: I think it is so, this is this is a 78 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 3: phenomenal overreach. The only time we've had bands of the 79 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 3: scale it was one time in American history, which is, 80 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 3: of course, the ban on alcohol consumption. 81 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 2: You know, I think I think about that. Not then 82 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 2: I'm a I'm not a huge drinker, but I remember that. 83 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 2: You know, you start making the comparison that, yeah, we 84 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 2: had prohibition, and yeah that that didn't that didn't end 85 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 2: too well, Because here we are it's available again. 86 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 3: Right, not available again? What it did the law, the 87 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:45,160 Speaker 3: law on intended consequences about laws, well, you try to 88 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 3: ban something it's widely consumed and used, you create all 89 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 3: sorts of unintended consequences, not least the criminality that surrounded 90 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 3: everybody's still consuming alcohol and traded underground industry. The other band, 91 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:01,840 Speaker 3: by the way, which is relevant to the domain or 92 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 3: cars in general, was the banner driving quickly in nineteen 93 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 3: seventy three, when we ban banned ability to drive at 94 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:12,719 Speaker 3: normal speeds i e. Over fifty five miles an hour. 95 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 3: And what that did is that it was the It 96 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 3: was even more even a more widely flouted law than 97 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 3: the ban and consuming alcohol because people simply ignored it, 98 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:27,160 Speaker 3: and you know, a lot more speeding tickets. A lot 99 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 3: of cops just ignored it. Some didn't. But it really 100 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 3: is a very dangerous thing to ban things that are silly, 101 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 3: to ban that people will ignore and create under you know, 102 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,839 Speaker 3: all kinds of unintended consequences. But anyway, the ban on 103 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 3: appliances is no different than the ban on cars. It's 104 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 3: motivated by the same thing, the same bad instincts to 105 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 3: have status control over consumer choices that are you know, 106 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 3: convenient and sensible. 107 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 2: I think. I think the sad thing about the appliance 108 00:05:56,960 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 2: ban and what they're trying to take away from is 109 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:04,280 Speaker 2: that they might be able to achieve it, because yeah, 110 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 2: I can get this, but I can't get that. The 111 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 2: problem is going to be, you know, if you don't 112 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 2: have you know, the electric cost. Right, we're back there 113 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 2: because they want to convert every appliance to electric something 114 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 2: or electric water heater, or minimize the amount of natural 115 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:22,719 Speaker 2: gas flowing through the natural gas device. And it's like 116 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 2: the ev situation. And this is where I think the 117 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:26,920 Speaker 2: analogy in my mind where I was trying to put 118 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 2: the two together, is we don't have the resources. It's 119 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 2: not you know, it's like we keep saying we want 120 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 2: to go back in time. I want to be eighteen again. 121 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 2: It just it just can't happen. It's not it's not 122 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 2: physically possible. 123 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:40,919 Speaker 3: Well, if you shift, if you shift that much energy 124 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:45,040 Speaker 3: demand from gas to electric, which is what the goal is, 125 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:47,839 Speaker 3: then you're right. You have to build electric infrastructure to 126 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 3: handle it, and we're not just flat and to do 127 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:55,160 Speaker 3: it takes time and also cost money. And of course 128 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 3: you've now you've increased risks to society. One of the 129 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:02,040 Speaker 3: benefits of having two fuels to your house when does 130 00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 3: power out, is that you still have hot wire, you 131 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 3: still have sos it works fireplace they could use that 132 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 3: doesn't happen in the electric world, which is which is 133 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 3: high risk by definition. 134 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 2: You know, when are they gonna when are they going 135 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 2: to prevent us from lighting fires in the fireplace? 136 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 3: Well that you know, well, Colorado long time ago banned 137 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 3: new house construction with with with with fireplaces. 138 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 2: Yeah really I didn't know that ready, Yeah, I didn't 139 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 2: know that that. Just bring a board. Another thing to mind, 140 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 2: I was watching this show on Netflix the other day. 141 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 2: They were talking about food and beef and cows and 142 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 2: how cows emit. I don't know if this is true 143 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 2: or not. I get it must be true. I saw 144 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 2: it on TV. You know, cows emit. The current population 145 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 2: of cows in the United States emit more greenhouse gases 146 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 2: than the entire transportation industry. It was some astounding claim 147 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 2: that cows are more deadly to the environment than the automobile, and. 148 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 3: They want to ban milk and beef. So what they're 149 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 3: referring to is the fact that the ruminant bacteria in 150 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 3: the cow's gut, the digestion of grasses by cows and 151 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 3: all all that class of creatures emits methane. Methane is 152 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 3: a more powerful in the greenhouse lexicon, more powerful greenhouse 153 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 3: casts and co two by it depending how you measure 154 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 3: by a fact for twenty, so you know a pound 155 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 3: of methane amid it is like twenty pounds of carbon dioxide. 156 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:34,679 Speaker 3: It's shorter lived in the atmosphere, but it's that's what 157 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 3: it does. So that's some of the rules that are 158 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 3: being promulgated are directed not just the carbon dioxide emissions 159 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 3: from combustion, and it's not from cow farts. It is 160 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 3: commonly that smell of sulfur dioxide for the college kids 161 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 3: that remember what the misbehaviors and enjoyment they had at 162 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 3: the flatulence, But it's methane burps. It's the burping cows, 163 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 3: the biodigestion by bacteria of grasses, and of course termites 164 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 3: forget meat and beef, the termite termites emit methane as well, 165 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 3: and the one of the largest sources of methane emissions 166 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 3: globally are from termites. We don't count them because we 167 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:18,319 Speaker 3: don't eat termites, we don't grow termites, so they're irrelevant. 168 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 3: But yet we want to regulate cows because you know, 169 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 3: we grow cows. I mean, it's the path is uh. 170 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 3: You know, I would use the word in saying because 171 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 3: it's probably the right word to use, this path towards 172 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:35,559 Speaker 3: trying to find every possible source of human emissions of 173 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 3: greenhouse gases and regulator to pan. It's really it's not 174 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 3: going to end well because you can't do it. I mean, 175 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 3: it's just no matter what people are saying, it just 176 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 3: can't be done. 177 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:47,560 Speaker 2: So does you know, going back to where we started 178 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 2: our conversation, does the appliance controls we see currently being 179 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:55,719 Speaker 2: applied by Washington is that a reflection of the mentality 180 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:57,839 Speaker 2: of what they expect from the electric vehicle? And that's 181 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 2: why they're dragging us. I mean you in that direction. 182 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:02,559 Speaker 2: I mean you just said another You know, Washington d 183 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 2: C is going to add the band or Washington is 184 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 2: going to add the ban. I don't know if you 185 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 2: meant DC or the state. But you know we're we're again, 186 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:13,000 Speaker 2: and yet some states are saying, hey, we can't do this, 187 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 2: it's not going to work right. 188 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 3: Well, if you number of states are, they're not all 189 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 3: on board, but Washington d C Is de facto banning 190 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:27,599 Speaker 3: internal combustion engines through the EPA's proposed rule, and that's 191 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 3: being challenged, but that'll, you know, we'll see how it goes. 192 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 3: I never no governments can do a lot. The District 193 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 3: of Columbia, it South has joined California, New York, Maine, 194 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 3: and other states in banning the ability as a resident 195 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 3: of that state to purchase an internal combustion engine by 196 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 3: the year twenty thirty two. I think it is so, 197 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:50,440 Speaker 3: you know, long before we get to that point in time. 198 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 3: If those laws and those bands stay on the books 199 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 3: long before we get to that period, this is only 200 00:10:56,200 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 3: only eight years out. Long before then, automakers, if those 201 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 3: fan stay in place, we'll have to think about whether 202 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 3: they shut down a lot of factories because they'll be 203 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,959 Speaker 3: overproducing internal combustion engines, and those decisions will have to 204 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 3: be made a few years from now, not seven eight 205 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:13,440 Speaker 3: years from now, but a few years from now. You 206 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 3: have to get ahead of that curve. So they really 207 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 3: think those bands will stay in place, Then you'll begin 208 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 3: to see auto industry production ramping down because you won't 209 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:23,319 Speaker 3: be able to sell the products and you've got to 210 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 3: start thinking strategically about what you can close and quickly 211 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 3: you can close it. And of course the effect of 212 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 3: that will be to raise the costs of vehicles, will 213 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 3: be fewer vehicles available preemptively, and will raise the cost 214 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 3: of used cars as we've talked about before, and raise 215 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 3: the cost of repairing use cars because people are going 216 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 3: to keep the cars longer, and it's going to be 217 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:50,720 Speaker 3: a very vicious downward spiral of high costs and inconveniences 218 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 3: that will begin again, not in twenty thirty two when 219 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 3: the bands are proposed, but before it by. 220 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 2: Years sonless unless we come back to the same side 221 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 2: of the coin. So makes this election. You're very very interesting. 222 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 2: You're listening to Ronnani and the Card Doctor. I'm talking 223 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,680 Speaker 2: to Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute, and we're chatting 224 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 2: away about EV's and a bunch of other topics this hour. 225 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 2: So stay put Mark's stay on the side there. I'm 226 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:15,080 Speaker 2: running any of the Card Doctor. We'll both be back 227 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:15,559 Speaker 2: right after this. 228 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 4: Don't go away. 229 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:33,199 Speaker 5: You need advice on how to maintain that classic gt O. 230 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 5: Ron is the guy eight five five five six zero 231 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:38,600 Speaker 5: nine nine zero zero. Here's Ron. 232 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 1: Welcome back. 233 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:41,960 Speaker 2: Listeners, Ronnie and the card Doctor are here with the 234 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 2: often imitated, never duplicated, underappreciated Mark Mills of the Manhattan Institute. 235 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 2: Or you're hanging in there, Mark, I had to give 236 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 2: you that one, right, good. 237 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 3: You know it's good. I'll take I'll take it all. 238 00:12:57,480 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 3: I do. 239 00:12:57,880 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 2: Have to go ahead. 240 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 4: I'm sorry. 241 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 3: I want to correct one thing I should have told 242 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 3: you at the outset. Uh first of the year, I 243 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:08,079 Speaker 3: left the Manhattan Institute, my beloved Manhattan suit where I'm 244 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 3: supposed contributing editor to its great city journal. But now 245 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 3: I am a distinguished and you'll have to treat me 246 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 3: with more respect. Now we're on. I am a dis 247 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 3: distinguished senior fellow with the Texas Public Policy Foundation. I've 248 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 3: changed courses because they made me an offer to come 249 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:32,319 Speaker 3: and play with them, but especially to help build out 250 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 3: a new national energy initiative think tank of some kind 251 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 3: based in Washington. It's not a Texas based activity, but 252 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:43,960 Speaker 3: a Texas sponsored activity, because well, Texas is the energy 253 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 3: giant of America and in fact of. 254 00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 2: The world, and they and they realize what's at stake. 255 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 3: They do right. 256 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 2: One last thing from our last conversation, and by the way, 257 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 2: congratulations for that. I don't want to just ignore that. 258 00:13:57,160 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 2: That's kind of neat. You know, about two weeks ago 259 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 2: in the news, Germany decided to do away with the 260 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 2: incentive for purchasing or supporting evs. 261 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 4: What was that all about? 262 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 3: Money? Inherently what a shock. Yeah, I mean, you can't 263 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:18,839 Speaker 3: subsidize everything forever. And what it was all about is 264 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 3: the it made a lie of the trope that if 265 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 3: you subsidize EV's, the volumes will go up and they'll 266 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:31,120 Speaker 3: get cheaper. And evs are inherently more expensive than conventional cars, 267 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 3: except for in the luxury market, which is functionally irrelevant 268 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 3: to most of the world. So for the everyday car, 269 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 3: evs are inherently more expensive, and they are now being 270 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 3: produced at scale. We're no longer talking about a nascent industry. 271 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 3: There are millions of them being manufactured. Tessel did you know, 272 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 3: over a million a year themselves last year. It's a mature, 273 00:14:55,640 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 3: a large industry, and it still requires massive subsidies to 274 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 3: get people to buy them, which means governments are facing 275 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 3: the prospect if they push evs, is the only vehicle 276 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 3: you're allowed to buy? Is subsidizing every car everybody buys. 277 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 3: So it's it's unsustainable. You can't you can't do these 278 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 3: kinds of things, and the lie that they get cheap 279 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 3: is not true. 280 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 2: So wait, you're telling me that Germany woke up and said, wait, 281 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 2: we can't afford to continue in this path, let's just 282 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 2: let's eliminate it and stop it here. 283 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:29,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, they they did other things. Remember, they are pursuing 284 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 3: this aggressive wind and solar path on their grids, and 285 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 3: there there's a sense, you know, I believe last year 286 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 3: there was no net new orders in Europe for turbans 287 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 3: wind turbans, and they are reactivating coal plants in Germany, 288 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 3: digging up more coal, and the costs of the natural 289 00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 3: gas is soaring because of their because of the understandable 290 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 3: policy to de link from Russian gas. But that means 291 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:58,880 Speaker 3: instead of the geopolitical discounts that Putin was giving Germany, 292 00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 3: they're gone. So energy got more expensive and their economy 293 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 3: is shrinking and they're de industrializing and so on. The 294 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 3: at all of this on the backs of bad energy policy. 295 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 3: That's where all came from, and all it all comes 296 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 3: back to bad energy policy being mandated by the government. Unaffordable. 297 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 3: So the next Domino is the one that just fail, 298 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 3: which is knocking out EV subsidies. 299 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 2: So when does that fall here now? 300 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 3: And that's a good question. I mean, I well, you know, 301 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 3: if it takes as long to happen here as it 302 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:37,680 Speaker 3: did there, we're in for a few more years. I 303 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 3: think a fiscal sanity will rather than somebody deciding that boops, 304 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 3: we were wrong. We don't like evs. That's not going 305 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 3: to happen. I like evs, as you know, we've talked 306 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 3: about the performance opportunities and different kind of flexibility were nice. 307 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 3: They're great fun. But that's not the same thing as 308 00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 3: mandating everybody have one and subsidizing it. So I think 309 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:04,959 Speaker 3: fiscal reality will will come back into play here faster 310 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 3: than it did in Germany for a whole lot of reasons. 311 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:10,360 Speaker 3: And so if I were picking it, if we wanted 312 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 3: to take it over under Bet, I'd take two years. 313 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 3: I'd say, I'd say two years the subsidies go away, 314 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 3: even if there's a even if even if Democrats have 315 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 3: a white House, I think it's going to be financially unsustainable. 316 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 3: That's what I think will happen. 317 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:30,120 Speaker 2: All right, Well, I'll take that prediction. We'll we'll we'll 318 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:32,159 Speaker 2: talk again in two years. Personally, I think it's going 319 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:33,399 Speaker 2: to be a person I think it's going to be 320 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 2: eleven months. But we'll kind of take that, will kind 321 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 2: of take it comes. 322 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:44,440 Speaker 3: You're setting aside who wins the election eleven months, even 323 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,440 Speaker 3: if the red team instead of the Blue team wins. Uh, 324 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,880 Speaker 3: there's a lag because the you know, we've got then 325 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 3: not till a year from this January before the next inauguration, 326 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:59,200 Speaker 3: and then you have school off time which takes six months. 327 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,000 Speaker 3: But you know, President, it could could end by secutive 328 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:04,400 Speaker 3: order up the dyes for sure. 329 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:05,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, I get it. 330 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 3: They could try it. 331 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 2: I could try it. 332 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:08,440 Speaker 3: I don't know if they could get could get away 333 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 3: with it because it's you know, there's legislation because who 334 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:13,439 Speaker 3: has a House and Senate. It's messy. I guess my 335 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:14,160 Speaker 3: point is. 336 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,440 Speaker 2: It becomes political. Mark, let's pull over, take a pause. 337 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,320 Speaker 2: I'm Ronnini and the guard doctor here with Mark Mills. 338 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:20,199 Speaker 2: We'll both be back right after this. Don't go up. 339 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 5: She's real, find my phone. 340 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 2: Nice, she's real, find my phone, my phone, look back, Dane, 341 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 2: I card doctor here. We're talking Mark with Mark Mills, 342 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 2: we're talking e VS and all the peripheral conversations that 343 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:03,399 Speaker 2: go along with that statement. And as we roll along, Mark, 344 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 2: we you know, I knew, and I could probably talk 345 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 2: a lot longer than the time we always have. I 346 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 2: want to get into insurance costs. We've never really done 347 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,639 Speaker 2: a deep dive, but you know there's a lot of 348 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,879 Speaker 2: things that go along with that term insurance costs and evs. 349 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:20,679 Speaker 2: Electric vehicles enlighten us. 350 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:24,879 Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, the big wildcard here, as you know, is 351 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 3: ensuring the most expensive part of that vehicle, which is 352 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 3: the battery. And unlike an internal combustion engine car, there's 353 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 3: no single component that has such a high proportion of 354 00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 3: the cost of the vehicle. So roughly speaking, the batteries 355 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:41,640 Speaker 3: fifteen thousand dollars could be a smaller car ten thousand. 356 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:46,360 Speaker 3: That's a manufacturer's cost, so fifteen thousand. Then the big 357 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 3: ones could be twenty thousand. There's a lot of money. 358 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 3: And the battery structure is extremely important for safety reasons. 359 00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:57,720 Speaker 3: So if there's any mechanical damage to the battery pack, 360 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:00,640 Speaker 3: it's a huge thing in the floor, you know, the 361 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 3: pan of the car. Since it's a write off, the 362 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 3: batteries can't be repaired the way an internal combustion engine. 363 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 3: Can you know it's a very complex machine. People think 364 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:11,159 Speaker 3: it's simple. It's not a box of goos, it's not 365 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:14,679 Speaker 3: an empty tank. There's thousands of components, thousands of wells, 366 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:18,880 Speaker 3: power electronics, cooling systems, structural systems, safety systems. It's more 367 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 3: complex than an internal combustion engine and made from lots 368 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 3: of exotic stuff, unlike an engine which is cast iron steel. 369 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 3: Very easy to fix them, frankly comparatively, and you can 370 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 3: fix them so that cost is not really showing up 371 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:40,159 Speaker 3: yet in the data. Except this is my theory. Generally speaking, 372 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 3: overall car insurance costs have been rising across the country. 373 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,159 Speaker 3: It's not just that it's getting more expensive to repair cars. 374 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,399 Speaker 3: I think what's going on is the percentage of cars 375 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 3: that are being totaled for minor accidents. It's far higher 376 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,640 Speaker 3: with EBS. We know this for a fact, and that 377 00:20:56,760 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 3: cost is being passed on to all other insurance payers 378 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 3: because insurance gime's going to put the money somewhere, so 379 00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:07,640 Speaker 3: they haven't yet made ev makers. I don't think pay 380 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 3: the actual underwritten cost of ensuring a vehicle that gets 381 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:16,719 Speaker 3: into an accident that can be written off much more quickly. 382 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,840 Speaker 3: And there's another feature, by the way, for Tesla's particularly 383 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,920 Speaker 3: and if other automakers follow this, is that Elon Musk 384 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,720 Speaker 3: is nothing brilliant made that cheaper to make his car 385 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:29,760 Speaker 3: because his frame is a single aluminum casting. No one 386 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:32,920 Speaker 3: else has been to achieve that. It's a really incredible 387 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,439 Speaker 3: engineering achievement, and good on him and his team. I mean, 388 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 3: it really is. It's amazing. But the problem with that 389 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 3: is that the aluminum is, you know, it's fragile relatively speaking. 390 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 3: I mean, if you get into an accident and do 391 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:47,480 Speaker 3: damage to the frame of a steel car, you can 392 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,880 Speaker 3: bend it back, you can replace a part. We can't 393 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 3: do that to a Tesla. You're right off the frame, 394 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 3: right And that's that's so you got two things you're 395 00:21:55,800 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 3: facing that are changed. The insurance underwriting, and they'll you know, 396 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 3: that will show up. It has to rope eventually as 397 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:04,679 Speaker 3: you get more and more evs on the road, and 398 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:08,359 Speaker 3: I think what solution is uncomplicated. The electric car owner 399 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 3: will pay for the insurance higher insurance costs. Ultimately, that's 400 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,120 Speaker 3: what will happen, and then insurance companies will be blamed 401 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,400 Speaker 3: for impeding the eed revolution, for. 402 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,879 Speaker 2: Gouging and gouging, gouging, and all of a sudden, it 403 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 2: will become their fault. 404 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:23,479 Speaker 3: You know. 405 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,399 Speaker 2: I heard a story recently in the news that someone 406 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 2: with a Rivian vehicle Rivian truck. Now I think I 407 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 2: think the analogy was the damage if it was a 408 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,159 Speaker 2: gas vehicle would have been half the price. It was 409 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 2: a twenty six thousand dollars repair, and the debate was 410 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 2: do you fix it? And and it's it's it just 411 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 2: goes on every day. I've heard stories where insurance carriers 412 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,119 Speaker 2: are pulling out of the state of Florida because of 413 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 2: the cost. Some of it's obviously due to, you know, 414 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,920 Speaker 2: the losses they encountered over the last couple of years 415 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 2: with weather and hurricanes and so forth, but you know, 416 00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,440 Speaker 2: it's it's also because when an EV you know, when 417 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,639 Speaker 2: a hurricane hits Florida, and how many evs get wiped 418 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,640 Speaker 2: out as they did in the last couple of storms, right, 419 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,439 Speaker 2: all of a sudden, the losses multiply at such a 420 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:12,240 Speaker 2: rate that the insurance company can't make a rate of 421 00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 2: return on their investment. You know, they you know, let's 422 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,240 Speaker 2: talk how does an insurance company make money. My understanding 423 00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:19,600 Speaker 2: is Obviously they're taking the money from you and I 424 00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:21,639 Speaker 2: and everybody else, and then they're investing it. They're putting 425 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,639 Speaker 2: it into the stock market, they're putting it in places. 426 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 2: And when the market goes down, So now the market 427 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,680 Speaker 2: goes down, the EV cost to repair goes up. It's 428 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 2: like the perfect storm for you. We don't want to 429 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:32,119 Speaker 2: do this anymore. 430 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a problem, and some of it is higher 431 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,320 Speaker 3: repair costs inherent in the fact that the parts are 432 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:42,480 Speaker 3: more expensive or less available, the mechanics aren't available. But that, 433 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 3: to be fair, some of that works out over time 434 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 3: in the sense that the training and availability of mechanics 435 00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,720 Speaker 3: and parts improves over time, but it takes a long time. 436 00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 3: It's not going to happen overnight. And so those those 437 00:23:56,600 --> 00:24:01,440 Speaker 3: are pretty typical features of any new product. But the 438 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,639 Speaker 3: fact is, the inherent cost of so many of the 439 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,879 Speaker 3: components in an EV are higher than the inherent cost 440 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 3: of the conventional car. So by definition, it's going to 441 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,120 Speaker 3: be more expensive to repair. And then when you add 442 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 3: to that this other feature I mentioned, which is, you know, 443 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 3: there's no single components as expensive in a conventional car 444 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,400 Speaker 3: as there isn't an EV. When as is the battery, 445 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 3: and that's that's a pretty big risk. You got one 446 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 3: thing that if it's damaged in a way that's going 447 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 3: to make it unsafe, you have to write the vehicle off. 448 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,359 Speaker 3: And of course that's I had a friend who's whose 449 00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:39,360 Speaker 3: wife drives a Tesla three. It's a nice car. I've 450 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:43,480 Speaker 3: driven them a small minor fender bender, and they wrote 451 00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,960 Speaker 3: it off. Minor says nobody was hurt. It was, but 452 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,439 Speaker 3: it caused enough potential damage to the integrity of the 453 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,560 Speaker 3: battery that is it vendor bender. It's obviously a little 454 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 3: more than that, but they wrote it off and it 455 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 3: would never have been a write off it had been 456 00:24:57,920 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 3: been a conventional vehicle. 457 00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:04,720 Speaker 2: If you're standing in in front of two dealerships EV 458 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,359 Speaker 2: or Guess, and you're trying to think about the cost 459 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,880 Speaker 2: of ownership the Guess version, the internal combustion engine. You're 460 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:12,960 Speaker 2: familiar with that. If you've been driving a while, you know. 461 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 4: What the costs are. 462 00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,840 Speaker 2: You know what are the hidden costs with that EV 463 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,679 Speaker 2: that you know people need to think about and make 464 00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:21,959 Speaker 2: a decision based on that. You know the things, the 465 00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 2: things they're not telling us. You know, insurance is one 466 00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,200 Speaker 2: of them. Might cost to repair as the other. 467 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 3: Well here, sure, but here's the thing. In the current environment, 468 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 3: given what we're doing, how we're subsidizing evs, how we're 469 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 3: subsidizing the recharging, and if you haven't have a garage, 470 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 3: there's a brick compelling argument to be made for your 471 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:46,639 Speaker 3: second or third guard to be an ev frankly right now, 472 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,399 Speaker 3: because everybody else's is carrying the costs for you. And 473 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,439 Speaker 3: if you, if you, if you're one of the owners 474 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,360 Speaker 3: that your at least you're at lease at lease, are 475 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:56,680 Speaker 3: not a buyer, and you want to have a car 476 00:25:56,720 --> 00:26:00,040 Speaker 3: for a few years, you know, all all of the 477 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 3: digital value risk is taken by the less or not 478 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:05,439 Speaker 3: you in the lease. You get the full credit on 479 00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 3: the lease in the first few years of a vehicle. 480 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 3: Every vehicle's ownership is you know, as long as quality 481 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 3: controls reason well, you don't how many you don't have 482 00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:15,080 Speaker 3: high repair costs not till later, so you you don't 483 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 3: have to worry about that. So it's the it's the 484 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 3: lease holder's problem when they take the vehicle back, so 485 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:24,639 Speaker 3: and they're refueling costs are subsidized. Right now, you're not 486 00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,400 Speaker 3: paying road taxes, which you will have to eventually but 487 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,360 Speaker 3: right now you're not. And if you could charge it home, 488 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 3: your your lecture utility is subsidizing the electricity for you. 489 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,400 Speaker 3: So it's, you know, not to be facetious, but it's true. 490 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,080 Speaker 3: I've told family members that this is if you want 491 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,240 Speaker 3: to second or third car to drive around town for convenience. 492 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,320 Speaker 3: But I have like one of the better quality you have, 493 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 3: Bookswagen or the TESTA three or the Hundai's are nice 494 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,879 Speaker 3: on too. They're they're nice, they're well make cars, especially 495 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,159 Speaker 3: in the first few years of lights. They're they're not 496 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:57,440 Speaker 3: as quite as reliable. You're not driving them as much, 497 00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 3: so you don't have to worry about as much. You're not 498 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,119 Speaker 3: driving a long distance because you're using it for local driving. 499 00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:04,840 Speaker 3: But that what that masks is that what we're really 500 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,879 Speaker 3: talking about is not whether an individual should buy an 501 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:11,520 Speaker 3: EV for their particular lifestyle choice. It's when the government 502 00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 3: is saying to us that you could only buy an 503 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,040 Speaker 3: EV and everybody's going to drive one, and that's when 504 00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:18,359 Speaker 3: the hidden costs show up. If the entire fuel system 505 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 3: for vehicles to switch from gasoline to electric, we are 506 00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:26,640 Speaker 3: talking about hundreds of billions of dollars of infrastructure costs 507 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:30,160 Speaker 3: which is not being factored in for the charging networks. 508 00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 3: Hundreds of billions, not billions, half a trillion dollars to 509 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:37,399 Speaker 3: upgrade the electric grid to charge all these vehicles, and 510 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:42,760 Speaker 3: another half a trillion dollars of high speed chargers which 511 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 3: will be needed on the road. So the current plan 512 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,800 Speaker 3: is to spend seven billion dollars I need the chargers 513 00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 3: out of the Inflation Reduction Act. That's a drop in 514 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:51,680 Speaker 3: the bucket we're going to We're going to need to 515 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:53,840 Speaker 3: spend hundreds of billions of dollars to get enough of 516 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 3: them on the road. Those those are where the hidden 517 00:27:56,560 --> 00:28:00,960 Speaker 3: costs come in that are being completely ignored, and that 518 00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:05,639 Speaker 3: that's non trivial. We're talking trillion dollars of infrastructure that 519 00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:09,520 Speaker 3: needs to be put in place to have a significant share. 520 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:14,159 Speaker 3: In fact, the majority of vehicles become electric fuel instead 521 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:18,560 Speaker 3: of gasoline fueled. It's these are electrical engineering challenges. They're 522 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:22,320 Speaker 3: not amenable to, you know, magic waving a wand saying, oh, 523 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 3: it'll get better soon. We know how to do this 524 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 3: stuff now, we know what it costs now, and then 525 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:27,240 Speaker 3: you have not to miss. 526 00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,639 Speaker 2: About then you have to think about the cost of 527 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 2: what it's going to take, you know, to the land, 528 00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:35,240 Speaker 2: to the environment to build these things. Trees, forests that 529 00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:37,640 Speaker 2: have to be knocked down a lot. There, Mark, let's 530 00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:39,239 Speaker 2: pull over, take a pause for our last break. I'm 531 00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 2: running Ny in the Car Doctor. We're here with Mark Mills. 532 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:54,800 Speaker 2: We'll return right after this. Welcome back, listeners, Running in 533 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,400 Speaker 2: the Car Doctor. Here with Mark Mills. Mark, let's let's 534 00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,200 Speaker 2: go where our original conversation was. At the star of 535 00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:03,720 Speaker 2: this hour. We wanted to talk about EV batteries and 536 00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:05,680 Speaker 2: do a little bit of a deep dwell. I'll tell 537 00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:07,360 Speaker 2: you it's you know, they gave us ten hours. We 538 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,440 Speaker 2: could talk ten hours. You know, let's talk a little 539 00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,240 Speaker 2: about the true cost. I want to build an EV battery. 540 00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:14,080 Speaker 2: What's it going to take? 541 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 3: Well, that's the true cost that EV's costs. It's entirely 542 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,719 Speaker 3: about the battery's It takes a lot of stuff, a 543 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,239 Speaker 3: lot of metals and minerals, a lot of chemicals. And 544 00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,120 Speaker 3: this is what people if they do a little research 545 00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,320 Speaker 3: with the magic Google machine, they can figure this out. 546 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,800 Speaker 3: But the typical battery weighs a half a ton, just 547 00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,000 Speaker 3: a battery car, which is why the EV's way more 548 00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,400 Speaker 3: and why EV's use more aluminum in the frame to 549 00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,640 Speaker 3: cut down on the weight penalty from the battery. So 550 00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:45,840 Speaker 3: to replace about sixty gallons of gasolane, you know, sixties 551 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:49,080 Speaker 3: or sixty pounds of gasoline you got, you got one 552 00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,840 Speaker 3: thousand pound battery. In terms of what they're you know, 553 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:56,160 Speaker 3: transporting around and that requires digging up somewhere on Earth. 554 00:29:56,160 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 3: Are about two hundred and fifty tons of the earth said 555 00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 3: this before to get the metals and materials to make 556 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:07,400 Speaker 3: one battery. That's where the money relies is. They're digging 557 00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:11,120 Speaker 3: up all the earth to get the copper, to get 558 00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:14,040 Speaker 3: the aluminum, to get the manganese, to get the graphite, 559 00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:18,840 Speaker 3: to get the illuminum for the frame, and for the 560 00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:22,320 Speaker 3: catholic and anodes. All that costs money. All of it 561 00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,240 Speaker 3: costs more than the iron and steel that dominated regular car. 562 00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,120 Speaker 3: A regular car, three quarters of its weight, it's iron 563 00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,640 Speaker 3: and steel. That's not true for an EV. For an 564 00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:34,040 Speaker 3: EV three quarter of its weight are exotic metals and 565 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,240 Speaker 3: minerals at all cost more. You know, copper, the manganese, 566 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:41,800 Speaker 3: lift him, cobalt often, So where will the cost go 567 00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:45,920 Speaker 3: in the future for these complex heavy you know, fuel tanks. 568 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:49,920 Speaker 3: The battery. They're not going down significantly. They crept up 569 00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,400 Speaker 3: and then they crept down. Right now, they finished their 570 00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:56,360 Speaker 3: cost curve decline from invention, and now the costs are 571 00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 3: going to start creeping up because the marginal cost of 572 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,960 Speaker 3: the next ton of copper, the next ton of manganese 573 00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:06,720 Speaker 3: is rising. Is the world's demand starts to rise. And 574 00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,520 Speaker 3: it's because we're not opening minds fast enough. This whole thing, 575 00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,640 Speaker 3: everything about the future price of an EV, the future 576 00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:16,040 Speaker 3: costume EV, can be distilled to a single thing. You 577 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,920 Speaker 3: want to try to predict how fast will the world's 578 00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:23,000 Speaker 3: miners open new minds to mine the mega tons of 579 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 3: metals we need to make EV batteries. We know the 580 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 3: answer to that. They're not opening them quickly right now, 581 00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:32,400 Speaker 3: they're not investating in them. So my guess is they 582 00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:36,080 Speaker 3: know something that the automakers don't know. So they they 583 00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:38,280 Speaker 3: know the mandates are going to end, and they're not 584 00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,040 Speaker 3: about to get out of their skis with hundreds of 585 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,240 Speaker 3: billions of dollars of investment to build mines over the 586 00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,120 Speaker 3: next decade when the demand for those metals is not 587 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:48,320 Speaker 3: going to appear because no one is going to want 588 00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,760 Speaker 3: to pay the prices that are going to be demanded, 589 00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:54,400 Speaker 3: you know, for the batteries. So that's that's just sort 590 00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:56,760 Speaker 3: of the reality that we're living with. And this is 591 00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 3: a mining question. This is not a tech This is 592 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 3: not a technology question. To understand the future price of batteries, 593 00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,280 Speaker 3: you need to study the mining industry and the refining industry. 594 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:10,440 Speaker 3: It's an industry dominated by slow cycles, long times to 595 00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:13,720 Speaker 3: build things, billion billions and hundreds of billions of dollars 596 00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:17,320 Speaker 3: of investments, mostly foreign. The minds that are all being 597 00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:21,200 Speaker 3: expanded are in Africa, South America, and Asia, mostly Chinese. 598 00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:26,640 Speaker 3: China dominates, utterly, utterly dominates the refining of the key 599 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:30,520 Speaker 3: battery minerals. That dominates, I mean they have double the 600 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:34,320 Speaker 3: market share globally in battery minerals that OPEC has. An 601 00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,800 Speaker 3: oil utterly dominate the battery minerals market. It will for 602 00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:38,400 Speaker 3: a decade. 603 00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,160 Speaker 2: It sort of sounds like it's all about making money. Mark. 604 00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,040 Speaker 2: That's about all the time we've got right now going. 605 00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,600 Speaker 2: We can continue this again if the listeners want, where 606 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,280 Speaker 2: can they follow you and your escapades and what you're 607 00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 2: trying to accomplish, And we appreciate that, is there a 608 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:53,520 Speaker 2: website they can go to and find out more about 609 00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:54,400 Speaker 2: you and what's going on. 610 00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, I keep archive all my writings and speeches at 611 00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:02,800 Speaker 3: tech hyphenpundit dot com, tech Hyphenpunda dot com. It's everything's there, 612 00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:05,920 Speaker 3: all free, easy to find, except for the paywalt stuff. 613 00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,080 Speaker 3: But you know, I apologize. I can't control that well. 614 00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:11,520 Speaker 3: I mean, like Wall Street Journal bands, those are paywalld yep. 615 00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,200 Speaker 2: Gotcha, all right, kettle, Hey, listen, you'll be well and 616 00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,719 Speaker 2: we'll talk again real soon. Take good care, Thank you, 617 00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:19,480 Speaker 2: You're very welcome. I'm Ronning Any and the card Doctor. 618 00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:32,960 Speaker 2: I'm back right after this. Welcome back listeners, you know, 619 00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:37,360 Speaker 2: ron and Any the car Doctor. It's it's always informative, 620 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 2: to say the least. Talking to Mark Mills, and it's 621 00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:42,719 Speaker 2: going to be interesting to see if his two year 622 00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:47,480 Speaker 2: prediction comes true about when the financial hard wall or 623 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:51,160 Speaker 2: financial brick wall that we're supposed to hit with EVS 624 00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:54,600 Speaker 2: in terms of unfeasibility actually comes. And I bet you 625 00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:57,120 Speaker 2: it does, all right. Mark's pretty accurate about these things. 626 00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:58,720 Speaker 2: He's got a good sense of where this is going. 627 00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:00,920 Speaker 2: One of the things he's said to me off air 628 00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:04,200 Speaker 2: was and I we're gonna bring them back to talk 629 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,400 Speaker 2: about this in the future at at a higher level, 630 00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:10,839 Speaker 2: is that there's no definitive proof. This is kind of staggering. 631 00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:16,920 Speaker 2: There's no definitive proof that evs will help reduce CO 632 00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:21,239 Speaker 2: two emissions, and I would like to see it if 633 00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:24,719 Speaker 2: it's out there, because what he's saying is there's an offset. 634 00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:28,600 Speaker 2: We create a vehicle that doesn't burn fuel, doesn't you 635 00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,759 Speaker 2: know it's it's an electric vehicle. But the cost to 636 00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:35,319 Speaker 2: produce that in terms of the bulldozer that digs up 637 00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,840 Speaker 2: the dirt, the coal plant that produces the electricity, the 638 00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,840 Speaker 2: way the materials are manufactured, the way you know, we 639 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:46,719 Speaker 2: cut down certain parts of vegetation and forests and things 640 00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,960 Speaker 2: like that. You know, it's there's the offset, so you know, 641 00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:53,080 Speaker 2: it's it's it's it's a wash, and all we're doing 642 00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:57,520 Speaker 2: is spending trillions of dollars and it just it just 643 00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:01,279 Speaker 2: makes me wonder. I know, from a mechanic perspective, at 644 00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:03,360 Speaker 2: a you know, as a garage mechanic level, as I 645 00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:06,600 Speaker 2: consider myself to be, you know, street level mechanic, I 646 00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,080 Speaker 2: question who's going to fix all these cars and the 647 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:11,440 Speaker 2: technology that's there. But that's a that's a story for 648 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,799 Speaker 2: another day. I've had an absolute pleasure being with you 649 00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:15,960 Speaker 2: this weekend, and I thank you for being here till 650 00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:17,960 Speaker 2: the next time. I'm ronning Ady in the car doctor, 651 00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:29,360 Speaker 2: reminding you good mechanics aren't expensive, They're priceless. See it.