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Speaker 2: All right, little instant reaction and fifteen minutes from now
Speaker 2: you're gonna hear from Chad Milman Sharper Square thank you
Speaker 2: for all joining us. San Francisco. The Niners got off
Speaker 2: to a big first half league coasted to a thirty
Speaker 2: six twenty four win. I never felt it was really
Speaker 2: in doubt. You probably didn't either. I think it was.
Speaker 2: It was a nice performance by brock Purty, who had
Speaker 2: three touchdowns two hundred and fifty five yards. We talked
Speaker 2: about this today on FS one, that this was a
Speaker 2: big night for brock Purty. They're a very good top
Speaker 2: four scoring team in the league. In the first half.
Speaker 2: That's a lot of that's on Kyle Shanahan's scripted plays,
Speaker 2: and brock perty is incredibly efficient in running those plays smartly.
Speaker 2: Distributions excellent, and they jump out to lead. They have
Speaker 2: not been a good second half offense. They have not
Speaker 2: been a good red zone offense. So tonight meant something
Speaker 2: because you have to. I mean, they were down to
Speaker 2: a third running back tonight beyond you know, Christian McCaffrey's out,
Speaker 2: hiss out, So I thought it was really important. Kittle
Speaker 2: had a nice night, Deebo had touches. Brandon Ayuk still
Speaker 2: doesn't feel like I'm getting the full Brandon Ayuk, but
Speaker 2: this was a big night for Brock Purty. That it's
Speaker 2: on the road. You have the better roster, you have
Speaker 2: the better coach, but it's a tough environment. It is
Speaker 2: a rival. Those those divisional games are tough. But I
Speaker 2: do think week six in the NFL, this is Week six.
Speaker 2: I think you start to see a separation between the
Speaker 2: posers and the pretenders and the real teams. You're gonna
Speaker 2: see the separation of quarterbacks. I'm gonna take Justin Herbert
Speaker 2: over bow Nicks this weekend. I took tonight Brock Purdy,
Speaker 2: who I think is better than Geno Smith. I think
Speaker 2: you're going to see some separation this week. Bad teams
Speaker 2: and mediocre teams can convince themselves for the first four
Speaker 2: to five weeks that can play, and then you see separation,
Speaker 2: and you also see improvement by some young players like
Speaker 2: Caleb Williams has obviously had a very good last two weeks.
Speaker 2: So you know Geno Smith is now oh and five.
Speaker 2: I went and looked it up tonight, owen five officially
Speaker 2: against San Francisco. He never plays particularly well. No, he
Speaker 2: didn't have a run game tonight, whereas Brock Purdy did
Speaker 2: have a run game. But he's been sacked fifteen times,
Speaker 2: four touchdowns, five picks, mid eighties passer writing against San Francisco.
Speaker 2: And that's a real deal. Is that you know you can?
Speaker 2: I mean it's okay if Lamar Jackson loses to Kansas City.
Speaker 2: Everybody's losing to Kansas City and Mahomes and Andy Reid,
Speaker 2: but you gotta beat those divisional foes. Brady owned the
Speaker 2: AFC East, Big Ben for years own Cincinnati Cleveland, and
Speaker 2: Gino just doesn't play well against his rivals. So right
Speaker 2: now you have Brock Perty's better than Geno. Kyler Murray's
Speaker 2: better than Geno and Matt Stafford in divisions, better than
Speaker 2: Geno Smith. Seattle's got the fourth best quarterback in the division.
Speaker 2: Listen the Darnold story, the Baker story, the Geno story
Speaker 2: of redemption. I love but Sam and Baker better than Geno.
Speaker 2: He's number three on that list. So I thought Seattle
Speaker 2: should have taken a quarterback in last year's draft. I
Speaker 2: would have gone after Michael Pennock's the local kid and
Speaker 2: had his offensive coordinator, Coach Grubb, who's now the OC
Speaker 2: of the Seahawks. But Atlanta gets him so and I
Speaker 2: also think they have to consider moving maybe a DK metcalf.
Speaker 2: I just I don't know, it doesn't I thought Al
Speaker 2: Michael's hit on it tonight, or maybe it was Kirk
Speaker 2: kirk Street. DK sometimes doesn't feel engaged catching the ball
Speaker 2: with his body. I just I just you get the
Speaker 2: occasional slash plays, but I just don't feel like he's
Speaker 2: always engaged. And you know, sometimes players just get tired
Speaker 2: of teams an environment, and I don't know, there's a
Speaker 2: lot of receivers on an annual basis from college to pro.
Speaker 2: I think DK is a really good player. Explosive. Somebody
Speaker 2: would be interested, But that just feels like you could
Speaker 2: move off it and garner a good draft pick, and
Speaker 2: that draft pick you could use to move up, because
Speaker 2: Seattle's gonna win some games this year. As soon as
Speaker 2: their defensive line gets healthy, they're going to win some games.
Speaker 2: They won't be a top seven or eight drafting team.
Speaker 2: So if you have to move up, you have to
Speaker 2: give up, you know, a couple of seconds, a couple
Speaker 2: of thirds, whatever you got to do to move up.
Speaker 2: But I think Seattle needs to go get a quarterback.
Speaker 2: You cannot have the fourth best quarterback in the division
Speaker 2: right now. Gino again tonight, a couple of picks thirty
Speaker 2: to fifty one. He's a better story than he is
Speaker 2: a quarterback. Darnold this year is a great story, and
Speaker 2: so as Baker. But they're also a really good quarterbacks. Currently.
Speaker 2: Last two weeks, Seattle's been dominated time of possession. So
Speaker 2: you know, when you fall into these big holes. They
Speaker 2: already weren't competitive, even though I had it tied at
Speaker 2: ten against the Giants. If you watch the game, they
Speaker 2: were dominated. Their offense was rarely on the field. Tonight again,
Speaker 2: you're losing time of possession, and some of that's just
Speaker 2: the defense with Mike McDonald. They're all banged up, they
Speaker 2: can't make stops. But you can talk yourself into a
Speaker 2: lot of different things. You got to have the first
Speaker 2: or second best quarterback in your division right now. In
Speaker 2: the AFC, who leads the AFC East, the best quarterback
Speaker 2: in the division, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson leads the AFC North.
Speaker 2: He's playing the best in the division.
Speaker 1: C J.
Speaker 2: Stroud and Patrick Malmes, Okay and Kirk Cousins. You know
Speaker 2: he's over there in the NFC South, best quarterback in
Speaker 2: that division. So yeah, I think Seattle has to have
Speaker 2: a big offseason. I like John Snyder with the GM.
Speaker 2: I think he's sharp, and Pete Carroll didn't see eya
Speaker 2: ee and it was a little bit of a power
Speaker 2: struggle near the end, but go get a quarterback, got accumulate.
Speaker 2: Some draft picks take a big swing on this. I
Speaker 2: think it's a better quarterback college draft than we thought
Speaker 2: six months ago. You know, you start watching these kids play,
Speaker 2: they all improve. I'd make the move, but the overall tonight,
Speaker 2: my take is this was a really important performance for
Speaker 2: Rock Purty, and I thought he delivered. He was on
Speaker 2: script in the first half, was Shanahan and then made
Speaker 2: some plays, moved around with his feet a couple of
Speaker 2: George Kittle moments. One of those, to George Kittle was
Speaker 2: a complete dart. Here's something else I want to throw
Speaker 2: out another topic before we get to Chad Millman. So
Speaker 2: I'm not a huge fan of the Robert solid firing
Speaker 2: because I think what happens is that you end up
Speaker 2: with an interim coach, and everybody plays inspired football for
Speaker 2: the interim coach, and you kind of get stuck because
Speaker 2: the players all like him. A lot of times you
Speaker 2: get stuck higher in the interim coach. But I was
Speaker 2: texting a couple of coaches, one former coach and another
Speaker 2: coach tonight, and last year there was one really good
Speaker 2: job available because of the quarterback Chargers, and Justin Herbert
Speaker 2: and Jim Harbaal the number one candidates swooped it up.
Speaker 2: This is going to be a rare year when Philly, Dallas, Jacksonville,
Speaker 2: Chicago and Cincinnati potentially can all have coaching openings. Now,
Speaker 2: Chicago's playing well, and I think eber Flus at least
Speaker 2: knows his side of the ball. Matt Eberflus, but you
Speaker 2: could potentially have Jalen Hurts, Dak, Trevor Lawrence, Kleb Williams,
Speaker 2: or Joe Burrow available. So this this is one of
Speaker 2: those years for the New York Jets. Aaron Rodgers forty,
Speaker 2: hasn't really been a great quarterback in his last twenty
Speaker 2: starts prickly, kind of expensive, you know, the Jets. By
Speaker 2: firing Sala, not only do you get into that interim
Speaker 2: head coach dilemma where the players love the interim head
Speaker 2: coach and play inspired football, and you kind of lose
Speaker 2: the locker room potentially if you don't hire him, because
Speaker 2: he's a guys guy's alfas a former player, he's well,
Speaker 2: very well like according to all the people in New
Speaker 2: York and the media, very well liked. So but also
Speaker 2: this is going to be the Jets are not going
Speaker 2: to be the first choice. I mean, Philadelphia has got
Speaker 2: a better quarterback in Jalen Hurts. I'd take him over
Speaker 2: Aaron today. He's younger and in his prime. It's a
Speaker 2: better roster, better ownership. I mean, I think Dallas has
Speaker 2: a better quarterback in Dak and a better owner. You know,
Speaker 2: Chicago and Jacksonville. I mean I get Caleb Williams on
Speaker 2: a rookie contract in Cincinnati again, Burrow or Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 2: at forty one years old. And don't forget Buffalo, Josh Allen.
Speaker 2: I like Sean McDermott, but that has been a noisy
Speaker 2: coaching staff. Game management again this year is a topic
Speaker 2: of conversation. Keep your eye on the Buffalo bill opening.
Speaker 2: So and if the Giants, I think this would be
Speaker 2: a catastrophic mistake if they moved off Brian Dable, Buffalo,
Speaker 2: in my opinion, would swoop him up in five minutes.
Speaker 2: I don't think the Giants are going to make that mistake.
Speaker 2: But add Buffalo, that's the best job available, good roster,
Speaker 2: solid GM, non chaotic ownership, Josh Allen, those jobs just
Speaker 2: don't open up. That's like Matt Lafleur in Green Bay
Speaker 2: job where Aaron was closer to his prime. Those jobs
Speaker 2: just don't become available. So if the Jets are Jets
Speaker 2: want to get into a sweepstakes for the best coach,
Speaker 2: they may end up with a fourth or fifth best choice.
Speaker 2: Look at these quarterbacks that can need coaches. Hurts, Alan Burrow,
Speaker 2: Caleb Dak, Aaron is way way past his prime and
Speaker 2: continues to be a little, in my opinion, subversive. He
Speaker 2: says one thing to the media, Well, you're not buying, right,
Speaker 2: You're not buying that Woodie Johnson phone call. They were
Speaker 2: just wishing each other an early happy Thanksgiving. Right, you
Speaker 2: don't buy it. I don't buy it. Nobody buys that.
Speaker 2: So I was talking to a coach tonight and he said,
Speaker 2: it's a good year to be looking for a job.
Speaker 2: So that's the dilemma when you sort of bum rush
Speaker 2: Robert sala is that the top candidates look at that,
Speaker 2: and this top candidate, somebody that I think will be
Speaker 2: available for a job. They kind of look at how
Speaker 2: you treated the last guy, and the last guy was
Speaker 2: actually pretty good at his side of the ball, Robert
Speaker 2: sala So that's always the dilemma. You keep seeing the
Speaker 2: same teams in the top ten in the draft, and
Speaker 2: we always blame coaches and quarterbacks, but so often it's
Speaker 2: really it's the guys upstairs. So nice win by the
Speaker 2: Niners tonight, really nice win in Seattle. Don't have to
Speaker 2: punt the season, but you have to have to upgrade
Speaker 2: at the sports most important position. I think we can
Speaker 2: all agree on that the roller coaster of an NFL
Speaker 2: seasons moving right along, and it promises to be a
Speaker 2: month full of tricks, treats, and of course, touchdowns. And
Speaker 2: DraftKings sports book and official sports betting partner of the
Speaker 2: NFL is the number one place to always bet touchdowns,
Speaker 2: running it in from the one or an eighty yard bomb.
Speaker 2: We don't care how they score them. We want to
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Speaker 2: All right. Time for another edition of Sharp or Square
Speaker 2: with my buddy Chad Milman, c COO Action Network. All
Speaker 2: odds provided by DraftKings. So last year I had a
Speaker 2: rough first month that I caught fire. And one of
Speaker 2: the reasons I caught fires I started noticing a trend
Speaker 2: in my picks is that I was overthinking the room.
Speaker 2: And as this league has become more quarterback centric, when
Speaker 2: all else fails, the best quarterback is winning the games,
Speaker 2: regardless of the spread. And that Monday Night's a great example.
Speaker 2: Is everything told you, oh, those unlucky Saints, and then
Speaker 2: two plays in You're like, I'm betting against Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 2: over Derek Carr, so a great example of that to
Speaker 2: me this week, I'm gonna inverse it. Aaron Rodgers since
Speaker 2: December of twenty twenty two has had one three hundred
Speaker 2: yard game in that time. Davis Mills has had a couple. Okay,
Speaker 2: Desmond Ritter has had more than one. Is that because
Speaker 2: he's a pretty passer, and we tend to embrace pretty
Speaker 2: longer the aging supermodel. We grow up with him. We
Speaker 2: can't let pretty go. We can let Peyton Manning was great,
Speaker 2: but he wasn't pretty. Aaron's pretty. He's not a very
Speaker 2: good quarterback anymore. He's not an efficient quarterback. So Josh
Speaker 2: Allen is really good. They're getting a bit healthier. This
Speaker 2: is a team that's gone through a chaotic week. They're
Speaker 2: still banged up on the offensive line. Josh Allen is
Speaker 2: significantly better than Aaron Rodgers. I am swallowing the two
Speaker 2: and a half points. I'm going against the high energy
Speaker 2: of a interim coach. Let's go backward. Sharper square.
Speaker 4: I mean, it's square as square as can be. You're
Speaker 4: going to take a road favorite in the division. That
Speaker 4: is a trend that will work against you over time.
Speaker 4: You are going to buy a team, while the Bills
Speaker 4: obviously aren't a two game losing streak. You're going against
Speaker 4: a team that is much more undervalued in the Jets,
Speaker 4: playing at home because they are going through a coaching
Speaker 4: change and because there has been all this chaos in
Speaker 4: their organization for the past month. So you're really playing
Speaker 4: against into what the public wants. The public, by the way,
Speaker 4: are betting the Bills at about a eighty five to
Speaker 4: ninety percent clip, And that's another time when you want
Speaker 4: to fade the public.
Speaker 1: So it's square.
Speaker 4: This line has moved in the Bills direction. All the
Speaker 4: money is coming are the bets are on the Bills.
Speaker 4: The wise guys have bet this down to two, It
Speaker 4: goes back up to two and a half. They take
Speaker 4: it again, it goes back down to two. Wise guys
Speaker 4: are in their jets.
Speaker 2: I do not believe. Although I said the Denver Broncos
Speaker 2: would be significantly better, they were my choice last year.
Speaker 2: I said the Rams are not a six win team.
Speaker 2: This year, I said the Broncos personnel offensively is not
Speaker 2: a five win team. They're going to win eight or nine,
Speaker 2: probably don't make the playoffs. They're not on a three
Speaker 2: game heater that said bow Nicks against Justin Herbert, who's
Speaker 2: healthy with both tackles and offensive coach off of by
Speaker 2: Chargers minus two and a half at Denver again, I'll
Speaker 2: take the divisional road favorite. It is a mismatchic quarterback.
Speaker 2: I do not believe the Denver Broncos are a four
Speaker 2: game winning streak team. I am selling them at a
Speaker 2: high point. Sharper square, Dude.
Speaker 4: There's a couple of games this week where there is
Speaker 4: zero consensus and very strong opinions on both sides, and
Speaker 4: this is one of those games. I will say that
Speaker 4: I'm with you. My favorite co host, Simon Hunter, professional
Speaker 4: better is with you. This line was at three, got
Speaker 4: bet down to two and a half, then it goes
Speaker 4: back up to three, then it gets bet down. What
Speaker 4: that is telling you is that when the game is
Speaker 4: at two and a half, professionals, a certain section of
Speaker 4: professionals love the Charters, and when the game is at three,
Speaker 4: a different group likes the Broncos. And they are basically
Speaker 4: just playing each other right now. They are just betting
Speaker 4: back and forth, back and forth.
Speaker 1: And like, what's interesting about these games?
Speaker 4: And we've talked a little bit about this when it
Speaker 4: comes to people like Jim Harbaugh and also people like
Speaker 4: Dan Campbell. They are building from the inside out. They
Speaker 4: are building from the line of scrimmage, and with Harbaugh
Speaker 4: and Campbell both it's really been about the offensive line.
Speaker 4: So Joe All coming back hopefully Rashaun Slater coming back
Speaker 4: for the Chargers. That will mitigate the Broncos' greatest strength,
Speaker 4: which is their pass rouge, which this year's top five
Speaker 4: in pressure rate and is really the reason why the
Speaker 4: Broncos have been staying in the games. They're staying so
Speaker 4: to me, I like the Chargers here because I think
Speaker 4: that they are they have the better quarterback, and I
Speaker 4: don't believe in bo Nicks yet. Think they've win with
Speaker 4: some smoke and mirrors right now. But it is you
Speaker 4: are not going to find a sharp side or a
Speaker 4: square side on this. I will say the Broncos are
Speaker 4: a very public dog. Because they've been winning. The public
Speaker 4: is coming in. So if you're looking for how to fade,
Speaker 4: you do want to fade the Broncos.
Speaker 2: Let's go to London. I think Caleb Williams and his
Speaker 2: offensive cohorts went to Shane Waldron and said, we're not
Speaker 2: a Pop Warner team. Give us more. Since that time,
Speaker 2: Caleb Williams is completing seventy one percent of his throws
Speaker 2: and doesn't have a turnover. The Jaguars just got out
Speaker 2: of a long losing streak and almost gave that game away.
Speaker 2: Whereas the Bears, I can look at them and go
Speaker 2: excellent defensive coaching, and I can look at Caleb Williams
Speaker 2: and say, ascending young star quarterback. There is nothing about
Speaker 2: the Jaguars I can definitively say. I like the Bears
Speaker 2: are starting to add to the things.
Speaker 4: I like.
Speaker 2: We know that he Luskin coach defense. That's inarguable. It's
Speaker 2: like Robert Sola. You don't have to love him, he
Speaker 2: knew defense. I'm going to take the Bears minus one
Speaker 2: and a half. In London, favorites do well Overseas.
Speaker 4: Sharper Square favorites are I think thirty five and ten.
Speaker 4: I don't know why, right, And by the way, I
Speaker 4: think it's something like thirty fourteen and one against the spread,
Speaker 4: including this past week Minnesota beating up on the Jets.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 4: So the wise guys have been betting the Jags in
Speaker 4: this spot. They're not fully bought in on the Bears.
Speaker 4: They feel like the Bears have beaten bad teams, and
Speaker 4: until the Panthers know, they didn't look that great beating
Speaker 4: the Colts, they didn't look that great beating the Rams.
Speaker 1: I agree with you what you're seeing about Kayleb Williams.
Speaker 4: He's definitely taking steps and it's not like the Jags
Speaker 4: defense is anything that is lighting up the league or
Speaker 4: that people are afraid of. And to your point, like
Speaker 4: Doug Peterson after that touchdown pass to Alec Pearce by
Speaker 4: Joe Flacco in that game, I thought Doug Peterson wanted
Speaker 4: to disappear into a hole. Like he was on the
Speaker 4: balls of his feet, his elbows on his knees, like
Speaker 4: he looked devastated, like I don't know what to do
Speaker 4: with this team anymore.
Speaker 1: So this is not a good team. But they're still
Speaker 1: betting the Jags.
Speaker 4: And I'll be honest with you, it's all trend based
Speaker 4: and model based. There is nothing on the field that
Speaker 4: makes any professional better look at this and say, oh, yeah,
Speaker 4: I got to take the Jags. This is where, by
Speaker 4: the way, your quarterback theory might play out, because best
Speaker 4: quarterback wins. Yeah, the better quarterback wins. And I don't
Speaker 4: think there's anyone who will say that Caleb Williams isn't
Speaker 4: ascendant and that Trevor Lawrence is a little bit flataued
Speaker 4: or even regressing right now. I think some of the
Speaker 4: things that the wise Guy's like, if it's anything, it's
Speaker 4: about the travel. There is a very significant and record
Speaker 4: of the team that has played in London before performing
Speaker 4: better because it is so sort of dislocating for both
Speaker 4: teams that when you've had that experience it plays to
Speaker 4: your strength.
Speaker 2: So there's I have this belief when there's a line.
Speaker 2: Most lines are three to three and a half, two
Speaker 2: and a half, six and a half, seven, seven and
Speaker 2: a half. But when the line's four and a half
Speaker 2: to five, what they're telling you is one team is
Speaker 2: clearly better. And that tells me that green Bay minus
Speaker 2: five is better than Arizona. So I tend to believe
Speaker 2: that young quarterbacks Jordan Love still qualifies as that at
Speaker 2: home are more comfortable. I think Jordan Love isn't totally healthy,
Speaker 2: but I think he's getting there now. Christian Watson practice
Speaker 2: this week. I picked green Bay to win the division.
Speaker 2: Jordan Love's injury slowed that down. I have seen now
Speaker 2: a half here or a half there where they look
Speaker 2: really good. I think they put it all together. Arizona
Speaker 2: is a celebratory young team that awful win could be flat.
Speaker 2: I don't trust them week to week. I would swallow
Speaker 2: the points five and take Green Bay Sharper square totally sharp.
Speaker 4: It's the side. The Cardinals are one of those public teams.
Speaker 4: We just talked about it with the Broncos to watch, Yeah,
Speaker 4: like they're really fun to watch, and look, they just.
Speaker 1: Had their Super Bowl. Right.
Speaker 4: The Cardinals right now are in second place in their
Speaker 4: division and the Niners are in third because they're both
Speaker 4: two and three, and the Cardinals beat the Niners. The
Speaker 4: challenge with Kyler Murray is there's so much inconsistency. And
Speaker 4: we liked what we saw Trey McBride, but again, like
Speaker 4: they won that game because at the end of it,
Speaker 4: the Niners didn't have a kicker, and so they had
Speaker 4: to make really unorthodox decisions when they were in the
Speaker 4: red zone when otherwise they might have been kicking field goals.
Speaker 4: And if not for a fumble, the Cardinals don't get
Speaker 4: the ball back and they don't get a chance to
Speaker 4: drive for the game winning kick. Right, So we have
Speaker 4: to take some of this cardinal ascendancy with a little
Speaker 4: bit of a grain assault, and I think I'm seeing
Speaker 4: the same thing that you are with the Packers. Number one,
Speaker 4: Matt Lafleur is a genius when it comes to scheming.
Speaker 4: He is clearly going to be a better coach than
Speaker 4: Jonathan Gannon is going to be. And I also think
Speaker 4: the Packers' defense this year, their defensive backfield, especially very opportunistic.
Speaker 4: Already more interceptions this year through that was before last
Speaker 4: week than they had all of last year. So while
Speaker 4: there are still holes in their defense, they're at least
Speaker 4: getting the turnovers that they hadn't be getting in the past.
Speaker 4: And to me, I feel like we are three weeks
Speaker 4: into Jordan Love being back. This is the first game
Speaker 4: back where he's not going to be facing a really
Speaker 4: challenging defense at home.
Speaker 1: I e.
Speaker 4: Brian Flores and the Vikings. We saw what they did
Speaker 4: in the second half when they made the adjustments and
Speaker 4: were able to come back against the Viking.
Speaker 1: I agree with you. Whyse guys agree with you?
Speaker 2: Packers of the side, So Commanders plus six and a
Speaker 2: half is my side. Here's why Lamar Jackson eats the NFC,
Speaker 2: because you can't duplicate esthetically, stylistically what he does in practice,
Speaker 2: except Washington can they have Lamar Jackson light, so they
Speaker 2: see Lamar Jackson light in practice every day. I'm also
Speaker 2: a believer until you prove otherwise. I'm going to believe
Speaker 2: what my eyes tell me. Washington's really good, way too
Speaker 2: good to give them six and a half. If they
Speaker 2: wouldn't have been the league's tire fire for a decade,
Speaker 2: you'd say this line's ridiculous. If anybody else was playing
Speaker 2: this well for five weeks, any other team, maybe outside
Speaker 2: of Carolina, there would be complete buy in. There's utter skepticism.
Speaker 2: They're good, they have Lamar light. Washington's seen this at practice.
Speaker 2: I'm taking the point Sharper square.
Speaker 1: So it's square.
Speaker 4: But when you look at the numbers here, the betting
Speaker 4: tickets are on the Commanders. They are the fly high
Speaker 4: team that everybody loves right now, there's no doubt about it.
Speaker 4: But you can see the money is on the Ravens.
Speaker 4: And when you have a split between tickets and money,
Speaker 4: tickets represents the public. Money represents the Sharps, right, and
Speaker 4: these guys have been looking to sell the Commanders, so
Speaker 4: it's very possible they will continue to be wrong and
Speaker 4: you are right right. Because they wanted to sell the
Speaker 4: Commanders last week and they lost. They wanted to sell
Speaker 4: the Commanders the week before and they lost. They are
Speaker 4: going to keep doubling, tripling down on selling the Commanders
Speaker 4: until they're eventually right. Matchup wise, this does play to
Speaker 4: the Ravens strengths. They are a tremendous running team right now,
Speaker 4: one of the best in the league, and they are
Speaker 4: going against a terror terrible run defense, especially in early downs.
Speaker 4: Now we've said this before the Ravens last year in
Speaker 4: the AFC title game, if they had just run the ball,
Speaker 4: they win that game. Instead, they put it in Lamar's hands.
Speaker 4: So you have to hope that they actually go with
Speaker 4: the game plan that will give them the best chance
Speaker 4: to win. Historically, teams that are overachieving like the Commanders,
Speaker 4: and when I say overachieving meeting they are covering the
Speaker 4: point spread by about five points per game those teams
Speaker 4: going forward in every game thereafter until there is enough
Speaker 4: regression that it evens out cover it about a forty
Speaker 4: three percent clip. This is what really worries Ravens. Betters
Speaker 4: okay underdogs this year six plus points, eleven and eight
Speaker 4: straight up sixteen to two to one against the spread.
Speaker 4: And this is one of those weeks. We got a
Speaker 4: few of these games. We got this one. We got
Speaker 4: the Patriot, we got the Browns, we got the Eagles,
Speaker 4: we got the Panthers, like and the Falcons like. It's
Speaker 4: a more big spreads than we've had at any point
Speaker 4: so far this season. But here is what's really scaring
Speaker 4: Ravens backers. You could see this game. Ravens are up
Speaker 4: by thirteen, twelve, eleven, ten, nine, eight, seven, any number
Speaker 4: like that, and the back door is wide open, and
Speaker 4: the Ravens pass defense is soft, and Jayden Daniels will
Speaker 4: not quit.
Speaker 1: This Commander's team will not quit.
Speaker 4: They might not they might know they're not going to
Speaker 4: win the game, but they might score that back door.
Speaker 4: So it's a it's going to be a sweat. It
Speaker 4: is not going to be a oh yeah, it's a blowout.
Speaker 4: And by the middle of the third quarter, Ravens betters
Speaker 4: feel like they can, you know, turn on a cooking show.
Speaker 2: Okay. One thing that almost guarantees consistency college or pro
Speaker 2: football is a really good offensive line. You kind of
Speaker 2: get the same Detroit team every weekend. People just don't
Speaker 2: quite realize how good the New York Giants offensive line is.
Speaker 2: That Seattle game wasn't close. I don't care what the
Speaker 2: score was. Mike McDonald's team couldn't get them off the field.
Speaker 2: Danny Dimes doesn't turn the ball over without Molik Neighbors
Speaker 2: without Singletary, completely controlled the line of scrimmage. They're not
Speaker 2: as good as Detroit, but Cincinnati can't stop anything. And
Speaker 2: this very quietly because it's been so bad for so
Speaker 2: many years. This Giant's O line reminds me of the
Speaker 2: Giants D line. It controls most of the teams it plays.
Speaker 2: I'm taking the three and a half points. New York
Speaker 2: plus three and a half at home. Sharper square, totally sharp.
Speaker 4: I'm surprised you chose this one, not because I don't
Speaker 4: have faith in your ability to be super sharp, because
Speaker 4: you truly are a maven of the media, a master
Speaker 4: of content, and a man who understands where the audience
Speaker 4: is going and what they want to hear. But this
Speaker 4: just felt like the kind of game you'd want to
Speaker 4: ignore unless it's a primetime game.
Speaker 1: But you're one hundred percent right. The wise guys are
Speaker 1: on the Giants.
Speaker 4: Here this line actually it opened at three and a half,
Speaker 4: and like you can see in the Jews, the vague,
Speaker 4: the commission, the way the bookmakers start to play with
Speaker 4: those things.
Speaker 1: Normally the numbers at minus one ten.
Speaker 4: When it starts to go up minus one fifteen, minus
Speaker 4: one twenty, that's basically them saying to you, all right,
Speaker 4: it's going to move or the other side plus one
Speaker 4: fifteen plus one twenty, this number is going to move
Speaker 4: to three. And that's because the wise guys are buying
Speaker 4: the hook the half of point for the Giants, because
Speaker 4: they feel the same way you do. They think this
Speaker 4: team has been balling out lately. Daniel Jones has been
Speaker 4: playing much better. Brian Dayball has been calling great game
Speaker 4: plans the past couple of weeks, and look like, go back,
Speaker 4: what was it three weeks ago? They're playing the Commanders.
Speaker 4: They don't score any touchdowns and like that's why they
Speaker 4: lose that game. I know it's a weird thing to say, oh, look,
Speaker 4: this team is better than you think, but one ball
Speaker 4: bounces a different way, and the Commanders aren't even six
Speaker 4: and a half point underdogs, they're more and no one's saying, oh,
Speaker 4: the Giants really shouldn't be any more than the Giant.
Speaker 4: They're saying the Giant should be any more than a
Speaker 4: field goal against the Bengals at home. So that's that's
Speaker 4: an interesting pick by you.
Speaker 2: So let's go to the best offensive line in football, Detroit.
Speaker 2: So this line was at three and a half and
Speaker 2: I said on the air on FS one, if it
Speaker 2: comes down to three, I'm taking Detroit. So a couple things.
Speaker 2: Dallas is the Arizona Cardinals or the Buffalo Bills of
Speaker 2: the league. I'm not really sure what team I get,
Speaker 2: just depends on the matchup and the mood I get
Speaker 2: the same. And that's because Dallas has a very left tackle,
Speaker 2: revolving door injuries. You don't know what they are with
Speaker 2: their offensive line. It's matchup based. Detroit's a better team.
Speaker 2: Detroit is a completely consistent team. Listen, they give up
Speaker 2: yards they do on the back end. I mean, Gino
Speaker 2: Smith had thirty eight first downs against them, and that
Speaker 2: worries me. But Hutchison and the tackle, the left tackle
Speaker 2: for Dallas, yikes. Yeah, I know it's a road favorite,
Speaker 2: but at three sharper square, I like Detroit.
Speaker 4: Well, it's not sharp, right, Nobody in their right mind
Speaker 4: is going to say as a professional better, yes, the
Speaker 4: right side here is the road favorite and the public
Speaker 4: side playing in Dallas. But you said something that is
Speaker 4: so on point, and you talk about quarterbacks and bad
Speaker 4: quarterbacks and good quarterbacks as being sort of a decision
Speaker 4: maker for you. For me, more and more, it's becoming
Speaker 4: about who controls the line of scrimmage because to me,
Speaker 4: that is the most consistent and dependable way a team
Speaker 4: can define performance and live up to expectations. Right there's
Speaker 4: going to be some matchup issue at some point on
Speaker 4: the edges, or running back may get hurt, a quarterback
Speaker 4: is having a bad game. But offensive line, defensive line
Speaker 4: consistency is pretty easy to mark.
Speaker 1: Lions their top five, top two.
Speaker 4: Dominant, not just as an offensive line but as a
Speaker 4: defensive line. But when you look at their offensive line
Speaker 4: across the board, like this is why this team is
Speaker 4: a top five overall offensive team right now. And to me,
Speaker 4: what's really fascinating is you look at the Jared Goff game.
Speaker 1: He went eighteen for eighteen, but.
Speaker 4: It wasn't Jared Goff going thirty five forty for four
Speaker 4: hundred yards and four touchdowns working outside of the offense
Speaker 4: because it was a you know, a shootout. Jared Goff
Speaker 4: working within the confines of the offense. Ben Johnson calling
Speaker 4: the great game. Dan Campbell clearly has said, we're not
Speaker 4: ourselves these first few games. Let's get back to basics.
Speaker 4: Football is a violent game. We are built to be violent.
Speaker 4: So to me, every advanced metric that every geek can
Speaker 4: think of favors the lightns here and every other metric.
Speaker 4: When you look at the Cowboys and you shake it out,
Speaker 4: it basically says their defense, especially against the run.
Speaker 1: Is trash. I don't know if the wise guys will
Speaker 1: be with you. I know I will be.
Speaker 4: We're making an executive decision, Colin. We're going with the lines.
Speaker 2: Okay, the most obvious line of the week. I mean,
Speaker 2: this is where I feel like this is the squarest
Speaker 2: of the square lines, and I hate it. Atlanta plays
Speaker 2: an unbelievable game. Everybody loves Kirk Cousins. It's a standalone game.
Speaker 2: He throws for over five football fields. And now in
Speaker 2: a division rivalry game, they go to Carolina, who's pretty
Speaker 2: good but was humiliated and they have to give up
Speaker 2: six points. The side is Carolina. It is a corner
Speaker 2: of a corner TV game, But that to me was
Speaker 2: the one, like that should be like a three, it's
Speaker 2: a six. It's the Panther Sharper square.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, it's sharp. You have to and I'm
Speaker 1: so glad you said it.
Speaker 4: Like I was afraid at the end when you're like,
Speaker 4: give me the game I missed, or give me the
Speaker 4: ugly game that I didn't mention, I was afraid I
Speaker 4: was gonna have to bring this one up because look,
Speaker 4: I'm so sick of having a bet on the Carolina
Speaker 4: Panthers and the lines being so wrong and yet then
Speaker 4: still being the wrong side. The Falcons have three wins
Speaker 4: this season that have come by a combined nine points,
Speaker 4: and they probably should have lost all those. In Week two,
Speaker 4: they had a game winning two minute drive against the
Speaker 4: Eagles when the Eagles had a ninety seven point six
Speaker 4: percent win probability with less than two minutes remaining. Week
Speaker 4: three game winning fifty eight yard field goal after the
Speaker 4: Saints had an eighty four and a half percent win
Speaker 4: probability with forty one seconds left. Week five overtime win,
Speaker 4: Kirk Cousins throws for you know, half a thousand. The
Speaker 4: Bucks had a ninety three percent win probability. With twenty
Speaker 4: two seconds left, ninety three percent of the tickets are
Speaker 4: on the Falcons, a nearly touchdown road favorite. Of course,
Speaker 4: the Panthers are the side here. Here's why it's super
Speaker 4: extra scary. The one thing the Panthers have been great
Speaker 4: at this season top two in run blocking, they are
Speaker 4: missing two key offensive linemen. And that's really why they
Speaker 4: got humiliated against the Bears is because all of a sudden,
Speaker 4: the one thing they were great at that the Bears
Speaker 4: can't defend is the run, and they couldn't do it anymore.
Speaker 1: And that's also the same here.
Speaker 4: Can they run the ball against a weak rush defense
Speaker 4: for the Falcons, that's going to be the deciding factor.
Speaker 1: But you still got to pull the trigger.
Speaker 2: Finally, give me a game I missed. It's usually an
Speaker 2: ugly game because I really hit on the big ones.
Speaker 2: Is there something I missed? He puts on the glasses,
Speaker 2: by the way, for our podcast audience, let's get serious.
Speaker 1: This is serious.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna look at my notes because truly, you did
Speaker 4: hit every game, and I hit.
Speaker 2: I mean I didn't touch the Steelers Raiders, I didn't
Speaker 2: touch the Colts, you know, I haven't bet that. I
Speaker 2: have not bet the Colts all year. They're getting three
Speaker 2: on the road Tennessee. I just and the reason I
Speaker 2: don't do it is I never know if Anthony Richardson
Speaker 2: can get through a game, So I just I'm not
Speaker 2: going to touch him.
Speaker 1: I think that's I think that's exactly right.
Speaker 4: And look what's interesting about that game, Just as in
Speaker 4: a side the Colts, the Titans started off as the
Speaker 4: favorites in that game as minus as a minus point favorites.
Speaker 4: Then it flipped and all of a sudden, the Titans
Speaker 4: got as low as.
Speaker 1: Plus one and a half.
Speaker 4: And then when all of a sudden the news came
Speaker 4: out that Anthony Richardson might be playing, the line flipped
Speaker 4: back to Tennessee being a two and a half point favorite.
Speaker 4: Now it's up to three. So that game's a mess.
Speaker 4: You want to stay away from games where the line
Speaker 4: is flipping back and forth, back and forth. I don't
Speaker 4: want to talk about this game, but every Wise guy
Speaker 4: is on New England right.
Speaker 2: Well, no, that's Jmax Pick of the week. He said,
Speaker 2: no Nico Collins, no Joe Mixon. By the way, they
Speaker 2: could have easily lost the Buffalo game. They're off a
Speaker 2: big win.
Speaker 1: It's and it's like they have New England's plus seven
Speaker 1: at home.
Speaker 4: Yeah, New England's plus seven, and actually in a lot
Speaker 4: of places the line is ticked down to six and
Speaker 4: a half, which tells you that the wise guys are
Speaker 4: on New England because the tickets in this game are
Speaker 4: all on Houston. And look, I think that the Nico
Speaker 4: Collins factor is important.
Speaker 1: C J.
Speaker 4: Shroud and this offense, they have not been very good
Speaker 4: on first and second down, and it's putting them in
Speaker 4: bad spots on third down and fourth down. His security
Speaker 4: blanket has been Nico Collins, who has been a monster
Speaker 4: this year, the best receiver in football. Now he's out.
Speaker 4: The New England defense is not terrible, it's middle of
Speaker 4: the road. Their offensive line is awful. But I actually
Speaker 4: think that plays to some of the quarterback change, which
Speaker 4: is Drake May He's going to be a one read,
Speaker 4: two read, pull it and run athlete in this game, right,
Speaker 4: and so it doesn't matter how bad the offensive line is.
Speaker 4: Some people that say you're throwing this guy to the
Speaker 4: Wolves kind of doesn't matter. He's going to be out
Speaker 4: of the pocket, he's going to be running draws whatever,
Speaker 4: it's going to be this New England team. It's been
Speaker 4: playing teams tough, so the wise guys are on New
Speaker 4: England here. I'm sorry, Yeah, I hate doing I have.
Speaker 2: To apologize to the audience for having to listen to
Speaker 2: the breakdown.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, it's so.
Speaker 4: I'm upset that I'm going to have to watch this game,
Speaker 4: like I'm upset that I that it's honestly the game
Speaker 4: I've bet the most done so far this week.
Speaker 1: And how about this.
Speaker 2: Let me throw you one college game. The college game
Speaker 2: of the year is Oregon getting about a field goal.
Speaker 2: It was like four, now it's down to three against
Speaker 2: Ohio State. I think they could meet in the playoff.
Speaker 2: I think Eugene they've won thirty four or thirty five
Speaker 2: at home. Dylan Gabriel's having completing almost eighty percent of
Speaker 2: his throws. They have their own line, right. I think
Speaker 2: Ohio State's better, but I think putting kids. I mean,
Speaker 2: if you go look at Ohio State against top ten teams,
Speaker 2: they've actually not been very good the last three years.
Speaker 2: I think I would take Oregon in the points sharper square.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would too.
Speaker 4: I think that the quarterback play for Ohio State is eh.
Speaker 4: You know, the reason why their receivers keep making so
Speaker 4: many fantastic catches is because the throwers aren't always that good.
Speaker 4: And you know, it's interesting. What did Nick Saban say
Speaker 4: on game day? He's like, you spend twenty million, it
Speaker 4: doesn't really matter. You got to spend the right twenty
Speaker 4: million on the right guys. And I think this is
Speaker 4: the beginning of a gauntlet for Ohio State. They spent
Speaker 4: that twenty million at probably right before they're about to
Speaker 4: have the hardest schedule that they have had in years
Speaker 4: to get to a national championship contending position. I think
Speaker 4: we all believe they'll make the playoff, but it's no guarantee.
Speaker 4: You got Oregon, Ohio State Penn State two three four.
Speaker 4: Like that big ten now is brutal, So I agree
Speaker 4: with you.
Speaker 1: I like Oregon.
Speaker 2: Chad Milman CCO Action Network. All odds provided by Draft
Speaker 2: Thanks Buddy.
Speaker 1: Talk to you soon man.
Speaker 4: The volume.
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