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Speaker 2: All right, little instant reaction and fifteen minutes from now

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Speaker 2: you're gonna hear from Chad Milman Sharper Square thank you

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Speaker 2: for all joining us. San Francisco. The Niners got off

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Speaker 2: to a big first half league coasted to a thirty

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Speaker 2: six twenty four win. I never felt it was really

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Speaker 2: in doubt. You probably didn't either. I think it was.

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Speaker 2: It was a nice performance by brock Purty, who had

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Speaker 2: three touchdowns two hundred and fifty five yards. We talked

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Speaker 2: about this today on FS one, that this was a

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Speaker 2: big night for brock Purty. They're a very good top

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Speaker 2: four scoring team in the league. In the first half.

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Speaker 2: That's a lot of that's on Kyle Shanahan's scripted plays,

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Speaker 2: and brock perty is incredibly efficient in running those plays smartly.

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Speaker 2: Distributions excellent, and they jump out to lead. They have

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Speaker 2: not been a good second half offense. They have not

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Speaker 2: been a good red zone offense. So tonight meant something

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Speaker 2: because you have to. I mean, they were down to

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Speaker 2: a third running back tonight beyond you know, Christian McCaffrey's out,

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Speaker 2: hiss out, So I thought it was really important. Kittle

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Speaker 2: had a nice night, Deebo had touches. Brandon Ayuk still

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Speaker 2: doesn't feel like I'm getting the full Brandon Ayuk, but

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Speaker 2: this was a big night for Brock Purty. That it's

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Speaker 2: on the road. You have the better roster, you have

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Speaker 2: the better coach, but it's a tough environment. It is

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Speaker 2: a rival. Those those divisional games are tough. But I

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Speaker 2: do think week six in the NFL, this is Week six.

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Speaker 2: I think you start to see a separation between the

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Speaker 2: posers and the pretenders and the real teams. You're gonna

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Speaker 2: see the separation of quarterbacks. I'm gonna take Justin Herbert

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Speaker 2: over bow Nicks this weekend. I took tonight Brock Purdy,

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Speaker 2: who I think is better than Geno Smith. I think

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Speaker 2: you're going to see some separation this week. Bad teams

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Speaker 2: and mediocre teams can convince themselves for the first four

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Speaker 2: to five weeks that can play, and then you see separation,

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Speaker 2: and you also see improvement by some young players like

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Speaker 2: Caleb Williams has obviously had a very good last two weeks.

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Speaker 2: So you know Geno Smith is now oh and five.

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Speaker 2: I went and looked it up tonight, owen five officially

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Speaker 2: against San Francisco. He never plays particularly well. No, he

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Speaker 2: didn't have a run game tonight, whereas Brock Purdy did

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Speaker 2: have a run game. But he's been sacked fifteen times,

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Speaker 2: four touchdowns, five picks, mid eighties passer writing against San Francisco.

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Speaker 2: And that's a real deal. Is that you know you can?

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Speaker 2: I mean it's okay if Lamar Jackson loses to Kansas City.

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Speaker 2: Everybody's losing to Kansas City and Mahomes and Andy Reid,

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Speaker 2: but you gotta beat those divisional foes. Brady owned the

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Speaker 2: AFC East, Big Ben for years own Cincinnati Cleveland, and

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Speaker 2: Gino just doesn't play well against his rivals. So right

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Speaker 2: now you have Brock Perty's better than Geno. Kyler Murray's

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Speaker 2: better than Geno and Matt Stafford in divisions, better than

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Speaker 2: Geno Smith. Seattle's got the fourth best quarterback in the division.

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Speaker 2: Listen the Darnold story, the Baker story, the Geno story

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Speaker 2: of redemption. I love but Sam and Baker better than Geno.

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Speaker 2: He's number three on that list. So I thought Seattle

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Speaker 2: should have taken a quarterback in last year's draft. I

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Speaker 2: would have gone after Michael Pennock's the local kid and

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Speaker 2: had his offensive coordinator, Coach Grubb, who's now the OC

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Speaker 2: of the Seahawks. But Atlanta gets him so and I

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Speaker 2: also think they have to consider moving maybe a DK metcalf.

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Speaker 2: I just I don't know, it doesn't I thought Al

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Speaker 2: Michael's hit on it tonight, or maybe it was Kirk

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Speaker 2: kirk Street. DK sometimes doesn't feel engaged catching the ball

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Speaker 2: with his body. I just I just you get the

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Speaker 2: occasional slash plays, but I just don't feel like he's

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Speaker 2: always engaged. And you know, sometimes players just get tired

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Speaker 2: of teams an environment, and I don't know, there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of receivers on an annual basis from college to pro.

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Speaker 2: I think DK is a really good player. Explosive. Somebody

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Speaker 2: would be interested, But that just feels like you could

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Speaker 2: move off it and garner a good draft pick, and

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Speaker 2: that draft pick you could use to move up, because

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Speaker 2: Seattle's gonna win some games this year. As soon as

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Speaker 2: their defensive line gets healthy, they're going to win some games.

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Speaker 2: They won't be a top seven or eight drafting team.

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Speaker 2: So if you have to move up, you have to

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Speaker 2: give up, you know, a couple of seconds, a couple

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Speaker 2: of thirds, whatever you got to do to move up.

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Speaker 2: But I think Seattle needs to go get a quarterback.

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Speaker 2: You cannot have the fourth best quarterback in the division

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Speaker 2: right now. Gino again tonight, a couple of picks thirty

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Speaker 2: to fifty one. He's a better story than he is

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Speaker 2: a quarterback. Darnold this year is a great story, and

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Speaker 2: so as Baker. But they're also a really good quarterbacks. Currently.

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Speaker 2: Last two weeks, Seattle's been dominated time of possession. So

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Speaker 2: you know, when you fall into these big holes. They

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Speaker 2: already weren't competitive, even though I had it tied at

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Speaker 2: ten against the Giants. If you watch the game, they

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Speaker 2: were dominated. Their offense was rarely on the field. Tonight again,

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Speaker 2: you're losing time of possession, and some of that's just

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Speaker 2: the defense with Mike McDonald. They're all banged up, they

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Speaker 2: can't make stops. But you can talk yourself into a

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Speaker 2: lot of different things. You got to have the first

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Speaker 2: or second best quarterback in your division right now. In

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Speaker 2: the AFC, who leads the AFC East, the best quarterback

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Speaker 2: in the division, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson leads the AFC North.

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Speaker 2: He's playing the best in the division.

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Speaker 1: C J.

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Speaker 2: Stroud and Patrick Malmes, Okay and Kirk Cousins. You know

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Speaker 2: he's over there in the NFC South, best quarterback in

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Speaker 2: that division. So yeah, I think Seattle has to have

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Speaker 2: a big offseason. I like John Snyder with the GM.

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Speaker 2: I think he's sharp, and Pete Carroll didn't see eya

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Speaker 2: ee and it was a little bit of a power

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Speaker 2: struggle near the end, but go get a quarterback, got accumulate.

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Speaker 2: Some draft picks take a big swing on this. I

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Speaker 2: think it's a better quarterback college draft than we thought

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Speaker 2: six months ago. You know, you start watching these kids play,

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Speaker 2: they all improve. I'd make the move, but the overall tonight,

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Speaker 2: my take is this was a really important performance for

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Speaker 2: Rock Purty, and I thought he delivered. He was on

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Speaker 2: script in the first half, was Shanahan and then made

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Speaker 2: some plays, moved around with his feet a couple of

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Speaker 2: George Kittle moments. One of those, to George Kittle was

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Speaker 2: a complete dart. Here's something else I want to throw

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Speaker 2: out another topic before we get to Chad Millman. So

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Speaker 2: I'm not a huge fan of the Robert solid firing

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Speaker 2: because I think what happens is that you end up

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Speaker 2: with an interim coach, and everybody plays inspired football for

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Speaker 2: the interim coach, and you kind of get stuck because

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Speaker 2: the players all like him. A lot of times you

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Speaker 2: get stuck higher in the interim coach. But I was

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Speaker 2: texting a couple of coaches, one former coach and another

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Speaker 2: coach tonight, and last year there was one really good

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Speaker 2: job available because of the quarterback Chargers, and Justin Herbert

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Speaker 2: and Jim Harbaal the number one candidates swooped it up.

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Speaker 2: This is going to be a rare year when Philly, Dallas, Jacksonville,

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Speaker 2: Chicago and Cincinnati potentially can all have coaching openings. Now,

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Speaker 2: Chicago's playing well, and I think eber Flus at least

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Speaker 2: knows his side of the ball. Matt Eberflus, but you

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Speaker 2: could potentially have Jalen Hurts, Dak, Trevor Lawrence, Kleb Williams,

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Speaker 2: or Joe Burrow available. So this this is one of

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Speaker 2: those years for the New York Jets. Aaron Rodgers forty,

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Speaker 2: hasn't really been a great quarterback in his last twenty

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Speaker 2: starts prickly, kind of expensive, you know, the Jets. By

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Speaker 2: firing Sala, not only do you get into that interim

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Speaker 2: head coach dilemma where the players love the interim head

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Speaker 2: coach and play inspired football, and you kind of lose

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Speaker 2: the locker room potentially if you don't hire him, because

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Speaker 2: he's a guys guy's alfas a former player, he's well,

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Speaker 2: very well like according to all the people in New

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Speaker 2: York and the media, very well liked. So but also

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Speaker 2: this is going to be the Jets are not going

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Speaker 2: to be the first choice. I mean, Philadelphia has got

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Speaker 2: a better quarterback in Jalen Hurts. I'd take him over

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Speaker 2: Aaron today. He's younger and in his prime. It's a

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Speaker 2: better roster, better ownership. I mean, I think Dallas has

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Speaker 2: a better quarterback in Dak and a better owner. You know,

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Speaker 2: Chicago and Jacksonville. I mean I get Caleb Williams on

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Speaker 2: a rookie contract in Cincinnati again, Burrow or Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 2: at forty one years old. And don't forget Buffalo, Josh Allen.

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Speaker 2: I like Sean McDermott, but that has been a noisy

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Speaker 2: coaching staff. Game management again this year is a topic

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Speaker 2: of conversation. Keep your eye on the Buffalo bill opening.

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Speaker 2: So and if the Giants, I think this would be

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Speaker 2: a catastrophic mistake if they moved off Brian Dable, Buffalo,

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Speaker 2: in my opinion, would swoop him up in five minutes.

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Speaker 2: I don't think the Giants are going to make that mistake.

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Speaker 2: But add Buffalo, that's the best job available, good roster,

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Speaker 2: solid GM, non chaotic ownership, Josh Allen, those jobs just

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Speaker 2: don't open up. That's like Matt Lafleur in Green Bay

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Speaker 2: job where Aaron was closer to his prime. Those jobs

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Speaker 2: just don't become available. So if the Jets are Jets

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Speaker 2: want to get into a sweepstakes for the best coach,

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Speaker 2: they may end up with a fourth or fifth best choice.

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Speaker 2: Look at these quarterbacks that can need coaches. Hurts, Alan Burrow,

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Speaker 2: Caleb Dak, Aaron is way way past his prime and

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Speaker 2: continues to be a little, in my opinion, subversive. He

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Speaker 2: says one thing to the media, Well, you're not buying, right,

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Speaker 2: You're not buying that Woodie Johnson phone call. They were

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Speaker 2: just wishing each other an early happy Thanksgiving. Right, you

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Speaker 2: don't buy it. I don't buy it. Nobody buys that.

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Speaker 2: So I was talking to a coach tonight and he said,

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Speaker 2: it's a good year to be looking for a job.

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Speaker 2: So that's the dilemma when you sort of bum rush

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Speaker 2: Robert sala is that the top candidates look at that,

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Speaker 2: and this top candidate, somebody that I think will be

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Speaker 2: available for a job. They kind of look at how

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Speaker 2: you treated the last guy, and the last guy was

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Speaker 2: actually pretty good at his side of the ball, Robert

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Speaker 2: sala So that's always the dilemma. You keep seeing the

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Speaker 2: same teams in the top ten in the draft, and

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Speaker 2: we always blame coaches and quarterbacks, but so often it's

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Speaker 2: really it's the guys upstairs. So nice win by the

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Speaker 2: All right. Time for another edition of Sharp or Square

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Speaker 2: with my buddy Chad Milman, c COO Action Network. All

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Speaker 2: odds provided by DraftKings. So last year I had a

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Speaker 2: rough first month that I caught fire. And one of

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Speaker 2: the reasons I caught fires I started noticing a trend

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Speaker 2: in my picks is that I was overthinking the room.

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Speaker 2: And as this league has become more quarterback centric, when

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Speaker 2: all else fails, the best quarterback is winning the games,

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Speaker 2: regardless of the spread. And that Monday Night's a great example.

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Speaker 2: Is everything told you, oh, those unlucky Saints, and then

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Speaker 2: two plays in You're like, I'm betting against Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 2: over Derek Carr, so a great example of that to

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Speaker 2: me this week, I'm gonna inverse it. Aaron Rodgers since

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Speaker 2: December of twenty twenty two has had one three hundred

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Speaker 2: yard game in that time. Davis Mills has had a couple. Okay,

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Speaker 2: Desmond Ritter has had more than one. Is that because

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Speaker 2: he's a pretty passer, and we tend to embrace pretty

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Speaker 2: longer the aging supermodel. We grow up with him. We

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Speaker 2: can't let pretty go. We can let Peyton Manning was great,

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Speaker 2: but he wasn't pretty. Aaron's pretty. He's not a very

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Speaker 2: good quarterback anymore. He's not an efficient quarterback. So Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen is really good. They're getting a bit healthier. This

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Speaker 2: is a team that's gone through a chaotic week. They're

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Speaker 2: still banged up on the offensive line. Josh Allen is

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Speaker 2: significantly better than Aaron Rodgers. I am swallowing the two

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Speaker 2: and a half points. I'm going against the high energy

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Speaker 2: of a interim coach. Let's go backward. Sharper square.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it's square as square as can be. You're

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Speaker 4: going to take a road favorite in the division. That

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Speaker 4: is a trend that will work against you over time.

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Speaker 4: You are going to buy a team, while the Bills

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Speaker 4: obviously aren't a two game losing streak. You're going against

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Speaker 4: a team that is much more undervalued in the Jets,

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Speaker 4: playing at home because they are going through a coaching

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Speaker 4: change and because there has been all this chaos in

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Speaker 4: their organization for the past month. So you're really playing

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Speaker 4: against into what the public wants. The public, by the way,

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Speaker 4: are betting the Bills at about a eighty five to

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Speaker 4: ninety percent clip, And that's another time when you want

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Speaker 4: to fade the public.

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Speaker 1: So it's square.

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Speaker 4: This line has moved in the Bills direction. All the

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Speaker 4: money is coming are the bets are on the Bills.

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Speaker 4: The wise guys have bet this down to two, It

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Speaker 4: goes back up to two and a half. They take

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Speaker 4: it again, it goes back down to two. Wise guys

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Speaker 4: are in their jets.

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Speaker 2: I do not believe. Although I said the Denver Broncos

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Speaker 2: would be significantly better, they were my choice last year.

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Speaker 2: I said the Rams are not a six win team.

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Speaker 2: This year, I said the Broncos personnel offensively is not

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Speaker 2: a five win team. They're going to win eight or nine,

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Speaker 2: probably don't make the playoffs. They're not on a three

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Speaker 2: game heater that said bow Nicks against Justin Herbert, who's

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Speaker 2: healthy with both tackles and offensive coach off of by

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Speaker 2: Chargers minus two and a half at Denver again, I'll

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Speaker 2: take the divisional road favorite. It is a mismatchic quarterback.

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Speaker 2: I do not believe the Denver Broncos are a four

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Speaker 2: game winning streak team. I am selling them at a

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Speaker 2: high point. Sharper square, Dude.

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Speaker 4: There's a couple of games this week where there is

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Speaker 4: zero consensus and very strong opinions on both sides, and

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Speaker 4: this is one of those games. I will say that

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Speaker 4: I'm with you. My favorite co host, Simon Hunter, professional

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Speaker 4: better is with you. This line was at three, got

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Speaker 4: bet down to two and a half, then it goes

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Speaker 4: back up to three, then it gets bet down. What

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Speaker 4: that is telling you is that when the game is

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Speaker 4: at two and a half, professionals, a certain section of

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Speaker 4: professionals love the Charters, and when the game is at three,

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Speaker 4: a different group likes the Broncos. And they are basically

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Speaker 4: just playing each other right now. They are just betting

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Speaker 4: back and forth, back and forth.

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Speaker 1: And like, what's interesting about these games?

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Speaker 4: And we've talked a little bit about this when it

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Speaker 4: comes to people like Jim Harbaugh and also people like

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Speaker 4: Dan Campbell. They are building from the inside out. They

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Speaker 4: are building from the line of scrimmage, and with Harbaugh

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Speaker 4: and Campbell both it's really been about the offensive line.

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Speaker 4: So Joe All coming back hopefully Rashaun Slater coming back

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Speaker 4: for the Chargers. That will mitigate the Broncos' greatest strength,

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Speaker 4: which is their pass rouge, which this year's top five

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Speaker 4: in pressure rate and is really the reason why the

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Speaker 4: Broncos have been staying in the games. They're staying so

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Speaker 4: to me, I like the Chargers here because I think

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Speaker 4: that they are they have the better quarterback, and I

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Speaker 4: don't believe in bo Nicks yet. Think they've win with

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Speaker 4: some smoke and mirrors right now. But it is you

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Speaker 4: are not going to find a sharp side or a

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Speaker 4: square side on this. I will say the Broncos are

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Speaker 4: a very public dog. Because they've been winning. The public

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Speaker 4: is coming in. So if you're looking for how to fade,

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Speaker 4: you do want to fade the Broncos.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to London. I think Caleb Williams and his

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00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:21,439
Speaker 2: offensive cohorts went to Shane Waldron and said, we're not

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Speaker 2: a Pop Warner team. Give us more. Since that time,

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Speaker 2: Caleb Williams is completing seventy one percent of his throws

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Speaker 2: and doesn't have a turnover. The Jaguars just got out

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Speaker 2: of a long losing streak and almost gave that game away.

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Speaker 2: Whereas the Bears, I can look at them and go

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Speaker 2: excellent defensive coaching, and I can look at Caleb Williams

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Speaker 2: and say, ascending young star quarterback. There is nothing about

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Speaker 2: the Jaguars I can definitively say. I like the Bears

348
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 2: are starting to add to the things.

349
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Speaker 4: I like.

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Speaker 2: We know that he Luskin coach defense. That's inarguable. It's

351
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Speaker 2: like Robert Sola. You don't have to love him, he

352
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:07,600
Speaker 2: knew defense. I'm going to take the Bears minus one

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Speaker 2: and a half. In London, favorites do well Overseas.

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Speaker 4: Sharper Square favorites are I think thirty five and ten.

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Speaker 4: I don't know why, right, And by the way, I

356
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:25,880
Speaker 4: think it's something like thirty fourteen and one against the spread,

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Speaker 4: including this past week Minnesota beating up on the Jets.

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Speaker 1: Right.

359
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:35,040
Speaker 4: So the wise guys have been betting the Jags in

360
00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:38,400
Speaker 4: this spot. They're not fully bought in on the Bears.

361
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:41,120
Speaker 4: They feel like the Bears have beaten bad teams, and

362
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Speaker 4: until the Panthers know, they didn't look that great beating

363
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Speaker 4: the Colts, they didn't look that great beating the Rams.

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Speaker 1: I agree with you what you're seeing about Kayleb Williams.

365
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Speaker 4: He's definitely taking steps and it's not like the Jags

366
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Speaker 4: defense is anything that is lighting up the league or

367
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Speaker 4: that people are afraid of. And to your point, like

368
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Speaker 4: Doug Peterson after that touchdown pass to Alec Pearce by

369
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Speaker 4: Joe Flacco in that game, I thought Doug Peterson wanted

370
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Speaker 4: to disappear into a hole. Like he was on the

371
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,840
Speaker 4: balls of his feet, his elbows on his knees, like

372
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 4: he looked devastated, like I don't know what to do

373
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Speaker 4: with this team anymore.

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Speaker 1: So this is not a good team. But they're still

375
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Speaker 1: betting the Jags.

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Speaker 4: And I'll be honest with you, it's all trend based

377
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 4: and model based. There is nothing on the field that

378
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 4: makes any professional better look at this and say, oh, yeah,

379
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 4: I got to take the Jags. This is where, by

380
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 4: the way, your quarterback theory might play out, because best

381
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 4: quarterback wins. Yeah, the better quarterback wins. And I don't

382
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 4: think there's anyone who will say that Caleb Williams isn't

383
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:50,400
Speaker 4: ascendant and that Trevor Lawrence is a little bit flataued

384
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 4: or even regressing right now. I think some of the

385
00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 4: things that the wise Guy's like, if it's anything, it's

386
00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 4: about the travel. There is a very significant and record

387
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 4: of the team that has played in London before performing

388
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 4: better because it is so sort of dislocating for both

389
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 4: teams that when you've had that experience it plays to

390
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:14,159
Speaker 4: your strength.

391
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 2: So there's I have this belief when there's a line.

392
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 2: Most lines are three to three and a half, two

393
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,679
Speaker 2: and a half, six and a half, seven, seven and

394
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 2: a half. But when the line's four and a half

395
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,159
Speaker 2: to five, what they're telling you is one team is

396
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 2: clearly better. And that tells me that green Bay minus

397
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:37,119
Speaker 2: five is better than Arizona. So I tend to believe

398
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 2: that young quarterbacks Jordan Love still qualifies as that at

399
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:46,359
Speaker 2: home are more comfortable. I think Jordan Love isn't totally healthy,

400
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 2: but I think he's getting there now. Christian Watson practice

401
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 2: this week. I picked green Bay to win the division.

402
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 2: Jordan Love's injury slowed that down. I have seen now

403
00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,119
Speaker 2: a half here or a half there where they look

404
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 2: really good. I think they put it all together. Arizona

405
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,199
Speaker 2: is a celebratory young team that awful win could be flat.

406
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,160
Speaker 2: I don't trust them week to week. I would swallow

407
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:14,399
Speaker 2: the points five and take Green Bay Sharper square totally sharp.

408
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Speaker 4: It's the side. The Cardinals are one of those public teams.

409
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 4: We just talked about it with the Broncos to watch, Yeah,

410
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,640
Speaker 4: like they're really fun to watch, and look, they just.

411
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 1: Had their Super Bowl. Right.

412
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Speaker 4: The Cardinals right now are in second place in their

413
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 4: division and the Niners are in third because they're both

414
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,399
Speaker 4: two and three, and the Cardinals beat the Niners. The

415
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 4: challenge with Kyler Murray is there's so much inconsistency. And

416
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 4: we liked what we saw Trey McBride, but again, like

417
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 4: they won that game because at the end of it,

418
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 4: the Niners didn't have a kicker, and so they had

419
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 4: to make really unorthodox decisions when they were in the

420
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 4: red zone when otherwise they might have been kicking field goals.

421
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,879
Speaker 4: And if not for a fumble, the Cardinals don't get

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Speaker 4: the ball back and they don't get a chance to

423
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Speaker 4: drive for the game winning kick. Right, So we have

424
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Speaker 4: to take some of this cardinal ascendancy with a little

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Speaker 4: bit of a grain assault, and I think I'm seeing

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Speaker 4: the same thing that you are with the Packers. Number one,

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Speaker 4: Matt Lafleur is a genius when it comes to scheming.

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Speaker 4: He is clearly going to be a better coach than

429
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 4: Jonathan Gannon is going to be. And I also think

430
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 4: the Packers' defense this year, their defensive backfield, especially very opportunistic.

431
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 4: Already more interceptions this year through that was before last

432
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,880
Speaker 4: week than they had all of last year. So while

433
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 4: there are still holes in their defense, they're at least

434
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 4: getting the turnovers that they hadn't be getting in the past.

435
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 4: And to me, I feel like we are three weeks

436
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,400
Speaker 4: into Jordan Love being back. This is the first game

437
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 4: back where he's not going to be facing a really

438
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:52,440
Speaker 4: challenging defense at home.

439
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 1: I e.

440
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:55,880
Speaker 4: Brian Flores and the Vikings. We saw what they did

441
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,119
Speaker 4: in the second half when they made the adjustments and

442
00:24:58,320 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 4: were able to come back against the Viking.

443
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 1: I agree with you. Whyse guys agree with you?

444
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:07,159
Speaker 2: Packers of the side, So Commanders plus six and a

445
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 2: half is my side. Here's why Lamar Jackson eats the NFC,

446
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:16,120
Speaker 2: because you can't duplicate esthetically, stylistically what he does in practice,

447
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 2: except Washington can they have Lamar Jackson light, so they

448
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 2: see Lamar Jackson light in practice every day. I'm also

449
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 2: a believer until you prove otherwise. I'm going to believe

450
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 2: what my eyes tell me. Washington's really good, way too

451
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 2: good to give them six and a half. If they

452
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,160
Speaker 2: wouldn't have been the league's tire fire for a decade,

453
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 2: you'd say this line's ridiculous. If anybody else was playing

454
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 2: this well for five weeks, any other team, maybe outside

455
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:52,919
Speaker 2: of Carolina, there would be complete buy in. There's utter skepticism.

456
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 2: They're good, they have Lamar light. Washington's seen this at practice.

457
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 2: I'm taking the point Sharper square.

458
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:02,880
Speaker 1: So it's square.

459
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 4: But when you look at the numbers here, the betting

460
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:13,640
Speaker 4: tickets are on the Commanders. They are the fly high

461
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 4: team that everybody loves right now, there's no doubt about it.

462
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 4: But you can see the money is on the Ravens.

463
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,919
Speaker 4: And when you have a split between tickets and money,

464
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:29,239
Speaker 4: tickets represents the public. Money represents the Sharps, right, and

465
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,560
Speaker 4: these guys have been looking to sell the Commanders, so

466
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 4: it's very possible they will continue to be wrong and

467
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 4: you are right right. Because they wanted to sell the

468
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,160
Speaker 4: Commanders last week and they lost. They wanted to sell

469
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 4: the Commanders the week before and they lost. They are

470
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 4: going to keep doubling, tripling down on selling the Commanders

471
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 4: until they're eventually right. Matchup wise, this does play to

472
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,400
Speaker 4: the Ravens strengths. They are a tremendous running team right now,

473
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 4: one of the best in the league, and they are

474
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:03,679
Speaker 4: going against a terror terrible run defense, especially in early downs.

475
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 4: Now we've said this before the Ravens last year in

476
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 4: the AFC title game, if they had just run the ball,

477
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 4: they win that game. Instead, they put it in Lamar's hands.

478
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,679
Speaker 4: So you have to hope that they actually go with

479
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 4: the game plan that will give them the best chance

480
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 4: to win. Historically, teams that are overachieving like the Commanders,

481
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 4: and when I say overachieving meeting they are covering the

482
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 4: point spread by about five points per game those teams

483
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 4: going forward in every game thereafter until there is enough

484
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 4: regression that it evens out cover it about a forty

485
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 4: three percent clip. This is what really worries Ravens. Betters

486
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 4: okay underdogs this year six plus points, eleven and eight

487
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:53,159
Speaker 4: straight up sixteen to two to one against the spread.

488
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,119
Speaker 4: And this is one of those weeks. We got a

489
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 4: few of these games. We got this one. We got

490
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 4: the Patriot, we got the Browns, we got the Eagles,

491
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 4: we got the Panthers, like and the Falcons like. It's

492
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 4: a more big spreads than we've had at any point

493
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 4: so far this season. But here is what's really scaring

494
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:19,439
Speaker 4: Ravens backers. You could see this game. Ravens are up

495
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:25,919
Speaker 4: by thirteen, twelve, eleven, ten, nine, eight, seven, any number

496
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 4: like that, and the back door is wide open, and

497
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 4: the Ravens pass defense is soft, and Jayden Daniels will

498
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 4: not quit.

499
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: This Commander's team will not quit.

500
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 4: They might not they might know they're not going to

501
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 4: win the game, but they might score that back door.

502
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 4: So it's a it's going to be a sweat. It

503
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 4: is not going to be a oh yeah, it's a blowout.

504
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 4: And by the middle of the third quarter, Ravens betters

505
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 4: feel like they can, you know, turn on a cooking show.

506
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 2: Okay. One thing that almost guarantees consistency college or pro

507
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 2: football is a really good offensive line. You kind of

508
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 2: get the same Detroit team every weekend. People just don't

509
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 2: quite realize how good the New York Giants offensive line is.

510
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 2: That Seattle game wasn't close. I don't care what the

511
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 2: score was. Mike McDonald's team couldn't get them off the field.

512
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 2: Danny Dimes doesn't turn the ball over without Molik Neighbors

513
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 2: without Singletary, completely controlled the line of scrimmage. They're not

514
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 2: as good as Detroit, but Cincinnati can't stop anything. And

515
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 2: this very quietly because it's been so bad for so

516
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 2: many years. This Giant's O line reminds me of the

517
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 2: Giants D line. It controls most of the teams it plays.

518
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 2: I'm taking the three and a half points. New York

519
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 2: plus three and a half at home. Sharper square, totally sharp.

520
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,280
Speaker 4: I'm surprised you chose this one, not because I don't

521
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 4: have faith in your ability to be super sharp, because

522
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 4: you truly are a maven of the media, a master

523
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 4: of content, and a man who understands where the audience

524
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 4: is going and what they want to hear. But this

525
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 4: just felt like the kind of game you'd want to

526
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 4: ignore unless it's a primetime game.

527
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 1: But you're one hundred percent right. The wise guys are

528
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: on the Giants.

529
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 4: Here this line actually it opened at three and a half,

530
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 4: and like you can see in the Jews, the vague,

531
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 4: the commission, the way the bookmakers start to play with

532
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 4: those things.

533
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 1: Normally the numbers at minus one ten.

534
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 4: When it starts to go up minus one fifteen, minus

535
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 4: one twenty, that's basically them saying to you, all right,

536
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 4: it's going to move or the other side plus one

537
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 4: fifteen plus one twenty, this number is going to move

538
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 4: to three. And that's because the wise guys are buying

539
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 4: the hook the half of point for the Giants, because

540
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 4: they feel the same way you do. They think this

541
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 4: team has been balling out lately. Daniel Jones has been

542
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 4: playing much better. Brian Dayball has been calling great game

543
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 4: plans the past couple of weeks, and look like, go back,

544
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 4: what was it three weeks ago? They're playing the Commanders.

545
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 4: They don't score any touchdowns and like that's why they

546
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 4: lose that game. I know it's a weird thing to say, oh, look,

547
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 4: this team is better than you think, but one ball

548
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 4: bounces a different way, and the Commanders aren't even six

549
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 4: and a half point underdogs, they're more and no one's saying, oh,

550
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 4: the Giants really shouldn't be any more than the Giant.

551
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 4: They're saying the Giant should be any more than a

552
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 4: field goal against the Bengals at home. So that's that's

553
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 4: an interesting pick by you.

554
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 2: So let's go to the best offensive line in football, Detroit.

555
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 2: So this line was at three and a half and

556
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 2: I said on the air on FS one, if it

557
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 2: comes down to three, I'm taking Detroit. So a couple things.

558
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 2: Dallas is the Arizona Cardinals or the Buffalo Bills of

559
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 2: the league. I'm not really sure what team I get,

560
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 2: just depends on the matchup and the mood I get

561
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 2: the same. And that's because Dallas has a very left tackle,

562
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 2: revolving door injuries. You don't know what they are with

563
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 2: their offensive line. It's matchup based. Detroit's a better team.

564
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 2: Detroit is a completely consistent team. Listen, they give up

565
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 2: yards they do on the back end. I mean, Gino

566
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 2: Smith had thirty eight first downs against them, and that

567
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 2: worries me. But Hutchison and the tackle, the left tackle

568
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 2: for Dallas, yikes. Yeah, I know it's a road favorite,

569
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 2: but at three sharper square, I like Detroit.

570
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 4: Well, it's not sharp, right, Nobody in their right mind

571
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 4: is going to say as a professional better, yes, the

572
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 4: right side here is the road favorite and the public

573
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 4: side playing in Dallas. But you said something that is

574
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 4: so on point, and you talk about quarterbacks and bad

575
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 4: quarterbacks and good quarterbacks as being sort of a decision

576
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 4: maker for you. For me, more and more, it's becoming

577
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 4: about who controls the line of scrimmage because to me,

578
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:24,200
Speaker 4: that is the most consistent and dependable way a team

579
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 4: can define performance and live up to expectations. Right there's

580
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 4: going to be some matchup issue at some point on

581
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 4: the edges, or running back may get hurt, a quarterback

582
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 4: is having a bad game. But offensive line, defensive line

583
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 4: consistency is pretty easy to mark.

584
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 1: Lions their top five, top two.

585
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 4: Dominant, not just as an offensive line but as a

586
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 4: defensive line. But when you look at their offensive line

587
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 4: across the board, like this is why this team is

588
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 4: a top five overall offensive team right now. And to me,

589
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 4: what's really fascinating is you look at the Jared Goff game.

590
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,359
Speaker 1: He went eighteen for eighteen, but.

591
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:13,879
Speaker 4: It wasn't Jared Goff going thirty five forty for four

592
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:17,800
Speaker 4: hundred yards and four touchdowns working outside of the offense

593
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 4: because it was a you know, a shootout. Jared Goff

594
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 4: working within the confines of the offense. Ben Johnson calling

595
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 4: the great game. Dan Campbell clearly has said, we're not

596
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 4: ourselves these first few games. Let's get back to basics.

597
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 4: Football is a violent game. We are built to be violent.

598
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 4: So to me, every advanced metric that every geek can

599
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 4: think of favors the lightns here and every other metric.

600
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 4: When you look at the Cowboys and you shake it out,

601
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 4: it basically says their defense, especially against the run.

602
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 1: Is trash. I don't know if the wise guys will

603
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 1: be with you. I know I will be.

604
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 4: We're making an executive decision, Colin. We're going with the lines.

605
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 2: Okay, the most obvious line of the week. I mean,

606
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:08,360
Speaker 2: this is where I feel like this is the squarest

607
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 2: of the square lines, and I hate it. Atlanta plays

608
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 2: an unbelievable game. Everybody loves Kirk Cousins. It's a standalone game.

609
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 2: He throws for over five football fields. And now in

610
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:22,359
Speaker 2: a division rivalry game, they go to Carolina, who's pretty

611
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 2: good but was humiliated and they have to give up

612
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:29,280
Speaker 2: six points. The side is Carolina. It is a corner

613
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:32,800
Speaker 2: of a corner TV game, But that to me was

614
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 2: the one, like that should be like a three, it's

615
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:38,320
Speaker 2: a six. It's the Panther Sharper square.

616
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 1: I mean, look, it's sharp. You have to and I'm

617
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 1: so glad you said it.

618
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 4: Like I was afraid at the end when you're like,

619
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:46,239
Speaker 4: give me the game I missed, or give me the

620
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 4: ugly game that I didn't mention, I was afraid I

621
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 4: was gonna have to bring this one up because look,

622
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 4: I'm so sick of having a bet on the Carolina

623
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 4: Panthers and the lines being so wrong and yet then

624
00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:02,240
Speaker 4: still being the wrong side. The Falcons have three wins

625
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:07,280
Speaker 4: this season that have come by a combined nine points,

626
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 4: and they probably should have lost all those. In Week two,

627
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 4: they had a game winning two minute drive against the

628
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 4: Eagles when the Eagles had a ninety seven point six

629
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 4: percent win probability with less than two minutes remaining. Week

630
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:25,400
Speaker 4: three game winning fifty eight yard field goal after the

631
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 4: Saints had an eighty four and a half percent win

632
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 4: probability with forty one seconds left. Week five overtime win,

633
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:40,960
Speaker 4: Kirk Cousins throws for you know, half a thousand. The

634
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:45,240
Speaker 4: Bucks had a ninety three percent win probability. With twenty

635
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:51,359
Speaker 4: two seconds left, ninety three percent of the tickets are

636
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:56,320
Speaker 4: on the Falcons, a nearly touchdown road favorite. Of course,

637
00:36:56,400 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 4: the Panthers are the side here. Here's why it's super

638
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 4: extra scary. The one thing the Panthers have been great

639
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:12,839
Speaker 4: at this season top two in run blocking, they are

640
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 4: missing two key offensive linemen. And that's really why they

641
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 4: got humiliated against the Bears is because all of a sudden,

642
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 4: the one thing they were great at that the Bears

643
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,800
Speaker 4: can't defend is the run, and they couldn't do it anymore.

644
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:26,320
Speaker 1: And that's also the same here.

645
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 4: Can they run the ball against a weak rush defense

646
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:32,840
Speaker 4: for the Falcons, that's going to be the deciding factor.

647
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 1: But you still got to pull the trigger.

648
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 2: Finally, give me a game I missed. It's usually an

649
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:40,800
Speaker 2: ugly game because I really hit on the big ones.

650
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 2: Is there something I missed? He puts on the glasses,

651
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 2: by the way, for our podcast audience, let's get serious.

652
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 1: This is serious.

653
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 4: I'm gonna look at my notes because truly, you did

654
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 4: hit every game, and I hit.

655
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 2: I mean I didn't touch the Steelers Raiders, I didn't

656
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,279
Speaker 2: touch the Colts, you know, I haven't bet that. I

657
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,439
Speaker 2: have not bet the Colts all year. They're getting three

658
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:01,840
Speaker 2: on the road Tennessee. I just and the reason I

659
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 2: don't do it is I never know if Anthony Richardson

660
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 2: can get through a game, So I just I'm not

661
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:06,359
Speaker 2: going to touch him.

662
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 1: I think that's I think that's exactly right.

663
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 4: And look what's interesting about that game, Just as in

664
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 4: a side the Colts, the Titans started off as the

665
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 4: favorites in that game as minus as a minus point favorites.

666
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 4: Then it flipped and all of a sudden, the Titans

667
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 4: got as low as.

668
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:22,760
Speaker 1: Plus one and a half.

669
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 4: And then when all of a sudden the news came

670
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:28,760
Speaker 4: out that Anthony Richardson might be playing, the line flipped

671
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 4: back to Tennessee being a two and a half point favorite.

672
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 4: Now it's up to three. So that game's a mess.

673
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 4: You want to stay away from games where the line

674
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 4: is flipping back and forth, back and forth. I don't

675
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 4: want to talk about this game, but every Wise guy

676
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 4: is on New England right.

677
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 2: Well, no, that's Jmax Pick of the week. He said,

678
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:54,719
Speaker 2: no Nico Collins, no Joe Mixon. By the way, they

679
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 2: could have easily lost the Buffalo game. They're off a

680
00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 2: big win.

681
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,959
Speaker 1: It's and it's like they have New England's plus seven

682
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 1: at home.

683
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, New England's plus seven, and actually in a lot

684
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 4: of places the line is ticked down to six and

685
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 4: a half, which tells you that the wise guys are

686
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 4: on New England because the tickets in this game are

687
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 4: all on Houston. And look, I think that the Nico

688
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:19,319
Speaker 4: Collins factor is important.

689
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 1: C J.

690
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 4: Shroud and this offense, they have not been very good

691
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 4: on first and second down, and it's putting them in

692
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 4: bad spots on third down and fourth down. His security

693
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 4: blanket has been Nico Collins, who has been a monster

694
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 4: this year, the best receiver in football. Now he's out.

695
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 4: The New England defense is not terrible, it's middle of

696
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 4: the road. Their offensive line is awful. But I actually

697
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 4: think that plays to some of the quarterback change, which

698
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:50,319
Speaker 4: is Drake May He's going to be a one read,

699
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:54,479
Speaker 4: two read, pull it and run athlete in this game, right,

700
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 4: and so it doesn't matter how bad the offensive line is.

701
00:39:57,800 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 4: Some people that say you're throwing this guy to the

702
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 4: Wolves kind of doesn't matter. He's going to be out

703
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 4: of the pocket, he's going to be running draws whatever,

704
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 4: it's going to be this New England team. It's been

705
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 4: playing teams tough, so the wise guys are on New

706
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:15,239
Speaker 4: England here. I'm sorry, Yeah, I hate doing I have.

707
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 2: To apologize to the audience for having to listen to

708
00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:18,400
Speaker 2: the breakdown.

709
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:20,319
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, it's so.

710
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 4: I'm upset that I'm going to have to watch this game,

711
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 4: like I'm upset that I that it's honestly the game

712
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 4: I've bet the most done so far this week.

713
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 1: And how about this.

714
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:34,359
Speaker 2: Let me throw you one college game. The college game

715
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 2: of the year is Oregon getting about a field goal.

716
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:38,840
Speaker 2: It was like four, now it's down to three against

717
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:41,800
Speaker 2: Ohio State. I think they could meet in the playoff.

718
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 2: I think Eugene they've won thirty four or thirty five

719
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 2: at home. Dylan Gabriel's having completing almost eighty percent of

720
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,279
Speaker 2: his throws. They have their own line, right. I think

721
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 2: Ohio State's better, but I think putting kids. I mean,

722
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:55,640
Speaker 2: if you go look at Ohio State against top ten teams,

723
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 2: they've actually not been very good the last three years.

724
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:02,360
Speaker 2: I think I would take Oregon in the points sharper square.

725
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:03,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would too.

726
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 4: I think that the quarterback play for Ohio State is eh.

727
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 4: You know, the reason why their receivers keep making so

728
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 4: many fantastic catches is because the throwers aren't always that good.

729
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 4: And you know, it's interesting. What did Nick Saban say

730
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 4: on game day? He's like, you spend twenty million, it

731
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 4: doesn't really matter. You got to spend the right twenty

732
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 4: million on the right guys. And I think this is

733
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:29,279
Speaker 4: the beginning of a gauntlet for Ohio State. They spent

734
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 4: that twenty million at probably right before they're about to

735
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 4: have the hardest schedule that they have had in years

736
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 4: to get to a national championship contending position. I think

737
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 4: we all believe they'll make the playoff, but it's no guarantee.

738
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 4: You got Oregon, Ohio State Penn State two three four.

739
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:53,280
Speaker 4: Like that big ten now is brutal, So I agree

740
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 4: with you.

741
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:54,680
Speaker 1: I like Oregon.

742
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 2: Chad Milman CCO Action Network. All odds provided by Draft

743
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 2: Thanks Buddy.

744
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 1: Talk to you soon man.

745
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:05,920
Speaker 4: The volume.

746
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 2: Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,

747
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:12,280
Speaker 2: take a moment, rate and review