1 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: The volume. The Colin Cowherd Podcast brought to you by 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:09,720 Speaker 1: Fan Duel. It's never been easier to play fantasy on 3 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: Fan Duel. Whether you love basketball, golf, soccer, or any 4 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: fantasy sport. There is a contest for every fan. Fan 5 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: Duel more ways to win, all right, everybody, Chad Millman, 6 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:40,879 Speaker 1: you know the rule. I give him the eight lines 7 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 1: in the NFL that interests me. On Sunday, I'll pick 8 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 1: five that will eventually make it on The Herd's Blazing Five. 9 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 1: But first, fake questions, real answers. There's things I want 10 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:54,639 Speaker 1: to talk about. I don't want to wait for you 11 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 1: to ask me the question. So here we go. Dear Colin, 12 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: when discussing Aaron Rodgers, you called him a so cow guy. 13 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: People were also quick to remind you he's from northern California. 14 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:07,479 Speaker 1: But doesn't the fact that he owns a twenty eight 15 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 1: million dollars mansion in Malibu make him a so cow guy? 16 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:16,399 Speaker 1: A great question, and that's right. When you're rich, where 17 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:22,040 Speaker 1: you buy a home matters because you have limitless options. 18 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 1: If you're Aaron Rodgers, you could build and buy anywhere. 19 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: He sees himself as more artist than he does tech savant. 20 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 1: He didn't choose to live in northern California. He chose, 21 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: with financial options at his disposal, to live in Malibu. 22 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:46,759 Speaker 1: Malibu is not only in southern California, It's where many 23 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: of the stars live. That's how he views himself. He 24 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 1: dates Hollywood stars. He is a star. He loves his music. 25 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: You even see that imprint in his commercials. He may 26 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: be no cow, he is a so cow guy. Dear 27 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: Colin your interview with Tony Dundee this week, which was terrific, 28 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: by the way, Tony said two keys for successful NFL 29 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 1: quarterback poise and accuracy. If you could add another, what 30 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: would it be? Something they call twitchiness. Do you have 31 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:26,920 Speaker 1: a quickness of mind, quickness of body? You have to 32 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 1: be able to figure things out in the NFL as 33 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 1: a quarterback very quickly. Some are quick mentally Peyton Manning. 34 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 1: Some can be quick physically, they can run. If you're 35 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, you're both. You're quick mentally and physically. You 36 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 1: can't have a slow release in the NFL. They talk 37 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: about this with Brady all the time. Brady is very 38 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: quick mentally, but it would be useless if he didn't 39 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 1: have a quick release. So Brady's release from the minute 40 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: he starts, the motion of the time the balls let 41 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,920 Speaker 1: go is less than four tenths of a second. You 42 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 1: have to be quick in this league. It's why Tim 43 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: Tebow and his fanboys never got it. He had a 44 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: really slow release, almost a second. You can't do that. 45 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: The windows are not vast, they're very small and they 46 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:23,080 Speaker 1: close quickly. So twitchiness the ability to either think quickly 47 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 1: cognitively or have an innate instinct physically, and in the 48 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: case of Russell Wilson, I think he has both. Dear Colin, 49 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 1: you're a supporter of the NFL's taunting penalties, but now 50 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 1: you seem to think they're getting a little out of hand. 51 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: Are you changing your mind or sticking with your original 52 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: and usually dead on sharp instincts. Well, it's fluid. Everybody's 53 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: always looking for a right and wrong. Over the course 54 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 1: of time, we had a fifty five mile hour speed 55 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 1: limit and then we have a sixty five mile hour 56 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: speed limit. People are seeking the right answer. I'm always 57 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 1: concerned about the intent. The intent is to avoid a 58 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 1: brawl or mayhem, as rare as they may be. There's 59 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 1: a lot of things we do on aeroplanes. You ever 60 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: notice that put your seat upright? Really, I'm going to 61 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 1: survive the crash if the seat is upright. What is 62 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 1: the intent of that insurance? Your inability to sue an airline, 63 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:26,600 Speaker 1: perhaps because you're in somebody's lap behind you. What's the 64 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 1: intent of the taunting rule? To avoid a fight and 65 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 1: or a brawl as rare as that may be. Putting 66 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 1: your seat up during a landing. We're not sure it's 67 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: ever saved a life in a crash landing, but I 68 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 1: understand the intent of it. Dear Colin, what is currently 69 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: the most underrated program in all of college football. You 70 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 1: know that's interesting because sometimes something gets a label as 71 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 1: overrated so people stop talking about it, and then after 72 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:04,599 Speaker 1: a while it becomes underrated. The same thing, maybe a product, 73 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:09,159 Speaker 1: maybe a city. I mean Seattle had a point where 74 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 1: it was the next La. I mean there was the eighties, Microsoft, 75 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:19,839 Speaker 1: the population boom, like Seattle was chronically underrated. Now it's 76 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 1: been underrated for so long. It's still wet three hundred 77 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 1: days a year. To tad overrated. It's damp and gray 78 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 1: all the time. And I'm from there, I mean outside 79 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 1: of Alabama. I think notre Dame is right now the 80 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 1: most underrated program in college football, because I think there's 81 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 1: a vast number of people in the Midwest and South 82 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: that think it's overrated. Gang they went toe to toe 83 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 1: with Georgia in back to back years, could have won both, 84 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 1: won possession games, field goal games. Well, outside of Alabama, 85 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 1: who's beaten Georgia regularly. So if you can go toe 86 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:57,919 Speaker 1: to toe with Georgia, I think there's about five to 87 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:03,359 Speaker 1: six programs in the country that could. Emma LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, 88 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:07,560 Speaker 1: Notre Dame, certainly nobody right now out West. I think 89 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: Notre Dame is now an underrated program, though overrated for 90 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:17,479 Speaker 1: most of my adult life. Dear Colin, you're talking a 91 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 1: lot about the USC job. Nobody cares about the USC job. Well, 92 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 1: that's a bad question and a bad statement, Folks. Any 93 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: job in America where you can be based in Los 94 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 1: Angeles and make somewhere between eight and ten million dollars 95 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 1: a year, it's going to be of interest to professionals. 96 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 1: Do you know the number of football jobs in America? 97 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 1: You have one hundred and thirty Division one programs. Six 98 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:49,160 Speaker 1: would consider paying you eight million a year. In the NFL, 99 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 1: five or six owners would pay eight million a year. 100 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 1: There's maybe ten jobs, maybe twelve, that are going to 101 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 1: pay what USC is going to pay. Every time USC 102 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 1: gets the right coach, they win or vie for national championships. 103 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 1: USC is going to steal your girlfriend. Get used to it. 104 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 1: They're gonna steal your football coach. They're not going to 105 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 1: hire an unemployed guy. The chances of that are probably remote. 106 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 1: They're gonna hire whoever they want to hire because nothing 107 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 1: against James Franklin at Penn State. Penn States, in rural Pennsylvania, 108 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 1: they're not in a state with half as many players 109 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 1: high school stars as Los Angeles. Luke Fickle. If they 110 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: want him, they'll have him. Dan Campbell want him, they'll 111 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: have him. A very few places in the country in 112 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 1: college football. USC can't steal your coach. I don't think 113 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 1: they'll steal Mario crystal Ball at Oregon because of the 114 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 1: relationship with Phil Knight. That's the only job to me 115 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 1: west of Denver. They couldn't steal a coach. They're not 116 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 1: going to get save and he's seventy. They're not going 117 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 1: to get Sark because he just committed to Texas. But 118 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 1: they can get anybody. Virtually, they want ten million dollars 119 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: and living on the beach in LA. The wife likes it, 120 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 1: the kids like it, the coach likes it, and they 121 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 1: will win instantly because the Pac twelve has never ever 122 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 1: been weaker. All Right, everybody, this is our Friday podcast 123 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 1: for the next twenty weeks. Chad Milman, chief content officer 124 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 1: for the Action Network. First two weeks, I did okay, 125 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 1: not great, sub five hundred. Why didn't love the lines? 126 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 1: I think this is the best week of line so far. 127 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 1: In fact, I've already made three bets and I think 128 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 1: I got the better line in all of them. So 129 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 1: we'll talk about that for the next twenty minutes with 130 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 1: Chad Milman. Let's start with this. I bet the Washington 131 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:48,440 Speaker 1: football team plus eight and a half. It's now down 132 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 1: to seven, so I think I got a much better line. 133 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:54,959 Speaker 1: So whereas on the Blazing five, I'm going to use 134 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 1: the line that's available now. I already bet this at 135 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:02,560 Speaker 1: eight and a half. Josh Allen's accuracy little troubling. It's 136 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 1: reverted back about twelve months. He struggled with it and 137 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: the Washington football team awful loss. One of the things 138 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 1: that jumps out to me is this is a very 139 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:16,680 Speaker 1: talented defensive front that is yet to play well. I 140 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:18,960 Speaker 1: think there's a sense of let's get our ship together. 141 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:21,319 Speaker 1: Ron Rivera is going to be on these guys. They 142 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 1: also know now that with Taylor Heineke it's not as 143 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: dynamic an offense. They have to play better. I love 144 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 1: the Washington football team at the number I got, I 145 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 1: still think they're the side plus seven, though I don't 146 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 1: feel that with as much conviction your thoughts. Sharper Square. 147 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 1: That is one hundred percent sharp at the eight and 148 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 1: a half. It opened at nine and a half. As 149 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 1: you noted, it's moved down to seven. No longer getting 150 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:50,959 Speaker 1: the best of the number. One hundred percent eight and 151 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:54,960 Speaker 1: a half sharp. Play on the Favorites. The podcast that 152 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 1: I do with professional Better Simon Hunter on the Volume 153 00:09:57,400 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 1: podcast Network, we will talk about every game the slate 154 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 1: on our Tuesday show and inevitably before the Thursday show. Simon, 155 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 1: who lived in Vegas forever and now best professionally in 156 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:12,439 Speaker 1: New Jersey, knows all the wise guys. He will get 157 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 1: calls from everybody in Vegas saying I like this pick. 158 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 1: I don't like this pick. You're not seeing the board 159 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: on this pick, whatever it is. The game we got 160 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 1: the most calls about from Tuesday to Thursday this week 161 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 1: was the Washington Football Team, which we talked about on Tuesday, 162 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 1: and by Thursday the line had moved, as you discussed considerably. 163 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 1: This was the sharp play of the early to midweek 164 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 1: for the NFL for professional betters. The Washington Football Team defense. 165 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 1: Let's get this out of the way. Everyone thought they 166 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:46,959 Speaker 1: would be amazing. Everyone thought their front four was on 167 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 1: the path to becoming historically great. They have not been. 168 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 1: They were incredibly disappointing against the Chargers in Week one. 169 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:59,320 Speaker 1: They were incredibly disappointing against the Giants in Week two. 170 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 1: Secondary is dreadful, amongst the worst in the league, but 171 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 1: some stats working in their favor for one Ron Rivera. 172 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:09,679 Speaker 1: His teams play it close, and in his tenure with 173 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: the Washington Football Team, only four of his games have 174 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:16,079 Speaker 1: been decided by more than eight points in either direction. Second, 175 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:21,439 Speaker 1: and this is big, really big. The Bills just blew 176 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:26,079 Speaker 1: out the Miami Dolphins, right, massive, massive win. Since two 177 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 1: thousand and three, favorites off of wins of thirty five 178 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: points or more like the Bills cover at just a 179 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:37,960 Speaker 1: forty two percent clip. And this isn't some sample size. 180 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 1: It's like five games. We're talking about well over a 181 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 1: hundred games in the sample size. So there's enough there 182 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 1: to make you feel comfortable about what precedent is telling you. 183 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:51,439 Speaker 1: This situation looks like I will say in September. Obviously 184 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 1: it's a much smaller sampleize, but sample size, but the 185 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 1: betters and the tend to overreact the most, to blow out. 186 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 1: So in September there's only been about eleven games, those 187 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 1: favors have only covered once. So you're on the right side. 188 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 1: The President is on the right side. I do think 189 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 1: what you said about Josh d Allen is accurate. From 190 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 1: market to trends to field, you're on the right side. 191 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw another game Chargers at the Chiefs. I 192 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: would take Kansas City minus six and a half. First 193 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:28,080 Speaker 1: of all, they're awful loss Andy Reid bounces back off losses. 194 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:31,040 Speaker 1: Second of all, the Chargers looked a lot like Anthony Lynn, 195 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 1: which is, oh, they outplayed a team but had a 196 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 1: bunch of penalties, hit a crossbar, and screwed themselves late. 197 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 1: Until I can be assured that the Chargers are different 198 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 1: than they've been for several years, which is talented, but 199 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 1: give games away. I am not betting them. Also, Andy 200 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 1: Reid has had his number against the Chargers. I don't 201 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 1: love the fact that Kansas Cities run defense has been gashed, 202 00:12:57,200 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: but I also have to acknowledge that Cleveland and Baltam 203 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: may have the two best run offenses. So let's not 204 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 1: overreact to that Kansas City's defense is healthier. I take 205 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 1: the Chiefs at minus six and a half. All right, 206 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 1: this is one the square play. The Chargers are everything 207 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 1: you want in a wise guy play. In fact, the 208 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:20,880 Speaker 1: majority of the bets right now are coming in on 209 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 1: the Chiefs. The line has still moved down to six 210 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:27,920 Speaker 1: and a half. It's moving in the Chargers direction. And 211 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 1: here's the thing about the Chiefs, and everyone has always 212 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 1: said Andy Reid off of by Andy Reid and Patrick 213 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 1: Mahomes in September, it's impossible to beat them. Everything is 214 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 1: impossible until it's not impossible anymore. And we saw last 215 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 1: week with the Ravens it's not impossible to beat the 216 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 1: Chiefs in September with this defense that is really terrible. 217 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 1: They were statistically thirty first in DVA last year. That's 218 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 1: a fancy metric to say you're not very good and 219 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 1: measure strength of schedule and sort of every single down statistic. 220 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 1: They were terrible last year, they are worse this year. 221 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: They could not stop the pass, they could not stop 222 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 1: the run last against the Ravens. Right, so the Chiefs 223 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 1: are always going to come in overinflated because bookmakers know 224 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: that squares are going to take whatever the number is. 225 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:23,640 Speaker 1: The line pro betters are making this game is more 226 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 1: like three and a half or four, so as a 227 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 1: Charger's better, you are getting about two and a half 228 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: to three points of value. Also, excluding a meaningless Week 229 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:38,360 Speaker 1: seventeen game last year, the Chiefs are one in eight 230 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 1: in their last nine games against the spread. All of 231 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 1: them have been on All of those games have been 232 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 1: one score, and that's because they consistently are over inflated. Finally, 233 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: I will give you this trend which has about eight 234 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 1: hundred games in it, and it's applicable to a couple 235 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: of games this weekend. Divisional games are always close, and 236 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: the Chargers and the Chiefs have been playing one score 237 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 1: games the past couple of years. Anthony Lynn or not 238 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 1: since two thousand and three, divisional dogs three or more 239 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 1: four oh eight three fifty eight eighteen against the spread. 240 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 1: It's a little north of fifty three percent, which is 241 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: about what you need to be a profitable better. All right, 242 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: play the Chargers in this one, Colin, Just play the Chargers. 243 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:26,840 Speaker 1: Biggest game a week three money night matchup Eagles in Dallas. 244 00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 1: Fan Duel's sports book is about to make it even 245 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 1: bigger because fan Duel is going to give new customers 246 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: thirty to one odds thirty to one odds on either 247 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 1: team to win. That means one hundred and fifty bucks 248 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 1: on a five dollar bet. I like the Eagles plush 249 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 1: three and a half. I thought they had a very 250 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:45,320 Speaker 1: good loss to the San Francisco forty nine ers. I 251 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: also think they're hard to judge early because of the 252 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 1: improvement week to week of Jalen Hurts. I think Dallas 253 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: was lucky to win. They're overvalued, Eagles undervalued. I like 254 00:15:56,640 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 1: Fan Duel sports Book, number one rated sports book app 255 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 1: in America, easy to use, safe and secure, fast pathouts 256 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:06,360 Speaker 1: within twenty four hours. Sign up now promo code Colin 257 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: this week before Dallas takes on Philly, when one hundred 258 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 1: and fifty bucks and a five dollars bet. How sweet 259 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 1: is that? Remember to use the code colin so they 260 00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 1: know we sent you and you can win C O 261 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 1: L I N. And if you're in Michigan, make sure 262 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 1: you check out this week. Can't misspread the love offer 263 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 1: on the Michigan Rutgers game exclusively on the FanDuel sports 264 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: Book app twenty one plus in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, Jersey, Tennessee. 265 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 1: In Virginia or West Virginia. Refund issued as non withdrawable 266 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 1: site credit that expires in seven days max refund ten bucks. 267 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: Restrictions of plice terms at sportsbook FanDuel dot com. Same 268 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: game paraly available for multiple sports and all states on 269 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:42,160 Speaker 1: mobile slash web gambling problem called one hundred Gambler. Visit 270 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 1: fandel dot com slash RG in Colorado, Jersey, and Virginia, 271 00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 1: or call one eight hundred and nine with it A 272 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 1: Indiana eight seventy seventy one seventeen for confidential help. In Michigan, Tennessee, 273 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 1: redline is one one hundred and eighty nine seven eight nine, 274 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: or go to one one hundred gamble dot net in 275 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 1: West Virginia or called one eight hundred next step or 276 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 1: text next step to five three three four two Arizona. 277 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:06,159 Speaker 1: All right, here's the other one. I've already bet. I 278 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 1: got a better number this week. All the numbers, the 279 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: good numbers were on Monday and Tuesday for me. So 280 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 1: I took the Patriots two and a half at home 281 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 1: against the Saints. And my takeaway simply is, this is 282 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:23,439 Speaker 1: why I bet against the Saints last week. They're now 283 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:30,119 Speaker 1: a month out of their facility. They're in hotels. This 284 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:33,400 Speaker 1: is not a Drew Brees Saints team. They've got multiple 285 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 1: injuries like they had last week. New England and Bill 286 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:45,320 Speaker 1: Belichick not only eat young quarterbacks, they eat turnover prone 287 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 1: quarterbacks for lunch. This is still a very, very limited 288 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 1: receiving corps. I don't trust Jamis against Belichick, and I 289 00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:00,400 Speaker 1: think actually New England, because they played so many starters 290 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 1: in preseason, I've got a good sense of what they are. 291 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 1: It's going to be a fairly low scoring game. But 292 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,440 Speaker 1: at two and a half, I love New England. At three, 293 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: i'd stomach it. I think they win by about four 294 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 1: to six. I'll take the Patriots here. So at two 295 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:15,880 Speaker 1: and a half, it is one hundred percent to sharp 296 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 1: play like that is the number. You want to get 297 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:20,520 Speaker 1: the home team at less than a field goal. You 298 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:22,920 Speaker 1: want to get a home team like the Patriots that 299 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:25,440 Speaker 1: play close games. They aren't going to turn the ball 300 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 1: over and more importantly, they control the trenches. Right So 301 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:32,520 Speaker 1: that's what you saw Carolina did against New Orleans and 302 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 1: what you saw Green Bay not do against New Orleans. 303 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 1: So when Jameis Winston had all the time in the world, 304 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 1: the Saints were successful because he was able to see 305 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:45,520 Speaker 1: down the field and pick apart the Packers secondary. When 306 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers controlled the trenches, all of a sudden, 307 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,360 Speaker 1: Jamis he's not a good He goes back to being 308 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 1: the old Jamis. And if the Patriots can do anything 309 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 1: right now, what Bill Belichick did with this team, We've 310 00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 1: talked about this build from the inn out and that's 311 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 1: what he's been doing. Offensive line, defensive line, they will 312 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 1: control the trenches. I like it. At two and a half, 313 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 1: it's a pass for me. At three, I would stay 314 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 1: away just because it's right on a key number and 315 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 1: there's no value. And as you noted, you got to 316 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:18,400 Speaker 1: play the hook one way or the other. Okay, I've 317 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 1: got by the way. I love the numbers. This week. 318 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 1: I already bet this game. I got a better number 319 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 1: at three and a half. Bengals outright winner over the Steelers. 320 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:31,439 Speaker 1: Ben is hurt. They get no push offensively. Joe Burrow 321 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 1: had one of his worst halfs as a pro. He's 322 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 1: a bounce back kid. The Bengals don't let you beat 323 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 1: him over the top. I think they're I think they're 324 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 1: pretty effective there. This to me is an easy one. 325 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 1: Burrow has been largely effective with or without pressure, and 326 00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: the Steelers will have pressure, but not as much without 327 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:56,399 Speaker 1: t J. Watt. And by the way, Ben hasn't been 328 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,639 Speaker 1: throwing at practice this week. Okay, so this is a 329 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:01,920 Speaker 1: bad offense when you can throw. I think this is 330 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 1: one of the better bets on the board. Three again 331 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 1: saw for me, but I got him at three and 332 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 1: a half. I love the Bengals outright to win. You 333 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:15,480 Speaker 1: are getting too smart for an average sharp Okay. See 334 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 1: I've been seeking accreditation, so yeah, can I at least 335 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 1: at this point, At this point, your diploma is like 336 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 1: within reach. Okay, you are standing on the high dive. 337 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 1: You are ready to jump off. I'm like third in 338 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:33,919 Speaker 1: line at DMV. I can see I can see here 339 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 1: the breathing of the lady behind the glass. You are 340 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:38,879 Speaker 1: so close because you know what, you know what's interesting. Honestly, 341 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: like this is a little inside media baseball, but I 342 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,000 Speaker 1: think people would appreciate it. You and I have been 343 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 1: talking about betting for years, right, And we used to 344 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 1: do the segment when we were doing Colins Football show 345 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,440 Speaker 1: at ESPN, and if I would come on the radio 346 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,639 Speaker 1: with you or whatever it was, we would do sharp 347 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,200 Speaker 1: and Square and you would ask me about games on 348 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:59,720 Speaker 1: Sunday morning, and we're talking about games where I know 349 00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:03,160 Speaker 1: the line that I'm telling people isn't nearly as good 350 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,880 Speaker 1: because you could have gotten it earlier in the week. Yeah, 351 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 1: and so now you're betting game when the professional betters 352 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 1: are betting you did it. The Bengals is exactly right, 353 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 1: The Washington football team is exactly right, the Patriots is 354 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,119 Speaker 1: exactly right. This game, the Bengals game opened at four 355 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 1: and a half. Yeah, I got I didn't get four 356 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 1: and a half. I got three and a half. I 357 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 1: waited a day and I got burned. But it's a 358 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:28,159 Speaker 1: really good side. It's fine. It's a really good side. 359 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,880 Speaker 1: And honestly, a lot of professional betters right now would 360 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,680 Speaker 1: tell you they'd be comfortable taking the Bengals on the 361 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 1: money line, meaning to win outright, and if they can't 362 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:38,480 Speaker 1: get this game back to three and a half, which 363 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 1: is entirely possible, it won't go that way because the 364 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:42,959 Speaker 1: majority of the bets and the money is coming out 365 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,680 Speaker 1: of the Bengals. They will tell you they'll be comfortable 366 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,440 Speaker 1: betting the Bengals out right rather than betting the Bengals 367 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 1: at a bad number, which is the plus three right now, 368 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:55,159 Speaker 1: because there's no real advantage. So yeah, this was at 369 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 1: four and a half. It was a Bengals play. At four, 370 00:21:57,880 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 1: It was a Bengals play at three and a half. 371 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 1: It was a Bengals the sharp side. This was hit immediately. 372 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,640 Speaker 1: There are a lot of injury concerns for the Steelers, 373 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 1: not just what's going on with Ben, what's going on 374 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,360 Speaker 1: with t J. Watt, what's going on with DeVante Washington. 375 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,680 Speaker 1: Right the offense has clearly had issues, and I think 376 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 1: a lot of us, including you and I, were encouraged 377 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 1: by what we saw with the Steelers against the Bills 378 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,920 Speaker 1: in the second half when Ben was controlling the line, 379 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 1: was controlling the ball, making the right decisions. They got 380 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,320 Speaker 1: out of their sort of offensive dual drums and really 381 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,680 Speaker 1: put it to the Bills in the second half. But 382 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,720 Speaker 1: what happened last week against the Raiders was seeing that 383 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,960 Speaker 1: this is a one dimensional team that really is entirely 384 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 1: reliant on play action pass or the run, and that's 385 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,119 Speaker 1: not going to serve them well now that everybody is 386 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 1: understanding that, and a lot of their players are injured injured, 387 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 1: and so you know, we both like Pittsburgh last week. 388 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 1: But one thing I did mention with Pittsburgh is Mike tomplin. 389 00:22:56,480 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin as a favorite against a bad team is 390 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,479 Speaker 1: a significantly different coach than when he can be row 391 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 1: round Mike Tomlin. All those things are combining to create 392 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,919 Speaker 1: a brew. That is why professional betters like the Bengals 393 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 1: so much, and I include you in that category. Here's 394 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: the rare game where the Lion's gotten better as the 395 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:20,160 Speaker 1: week has progressed. Dolphins now plus four and a half 396 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,400 Speaker 1: at the Raiders, and I liked the Dolphins at four 397 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:23,800 Speaker 1: and a half. I didn't at the three to three 398 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 1: and a half. Here's why, because when two is overvalued 399 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 1: by the market, TWOA gets hurt and Jacobi Brissette comes in, Well, 400 00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 1: I would make the argument I like Brissette more than 401 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:37,840 Speaker 1: two of I like Miami more. With Brissette standing, bigger, stronger, 402 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 1: better arm I think TWA doesn't have the respect of 403 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,880 Speaker 1: his teammates. I wouldn't be surprised if Brissette wasn't more 404 00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 1: well liked in the locker room. He's been well liked 405 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,199 Speaker 1: in every locker room he's been in A total pro humble. 406 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:53,960 Speaker 1: He's a big, strong kid. You can win games. I 407 00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,080 Speaker 1: like the Dolphins plus four and a half of the Raiders. Now, 408 00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,320 Speaker 1: I will say the one thing the Raiders are doing, 409 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,920 Speaker 1: they're getting a tremendous pass rush, has greg Ko Salt 410 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,200 Speaker 1: told me this week without bringing extra people, and Miami's 411 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 1: offensive line is still a work in progress, but the 412 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 1: value here the line's gotten better. I like the Dolphins 413 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:13,719 Speaker 1: plus four and a half of the Raiders. Who are 414 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 1: you know coming off in a two back to back 415 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 1: emotional wins a little bit of a natural letdown playing 416 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:24,879 Speaker 1: a backup quarterback at home. I like the Dolphins so 417 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 1: so sharp. I don't even know what to say right 418 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 1: now is this is a streak of epic proportions one 419 00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:37,159 Speaker 1: hundred percent. The wise guys love the Dolphins. Here, the 420 00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 1: key is what you said about Jacoby Brissette. There is 421 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:43,280 Speaker 1: not a single wise guy who is over adjusting his 422 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:47,479 Speaker 1: line on this game because Jacoby Brissette is playing instead 423 00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,800 Speaker 1: of Tua. Right, that is a number that the line 424 00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:53,560 Speaker 1: has has moved considerably. It's moved about a point and 425 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 1: a half. There is not a point and a half 426 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 1: difference in how professional betters power rate this number. So 427 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:01,720 Speaker 1: now they are getting that significant edge, that point and 428 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 1: a half edge on the Dolphins. And also, this is 429 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:10,480 Speaker 1: a game where you have to go against the public sentiment. 430 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,199 Speaker 1: The public is all in on the Raiders after they've upset, 431 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 1: and I want to emphasize upset two teams that had 432 00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:24,560 Speaker 1: huge public backing. Okay, so now that that has dramatically 433 00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 1: changed their perception in the market, it's why the line 434 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:32,159 Speaker 1: has moved up so aggressively with the backup quarterback. This 435 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 1: is all the betting tickets are on the Raiders right now. 436 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 1: This tells you a lot, but the money is split, 437 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,879 Speaker 1: meaning professional money is coming in and evening out the 438 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 1: actual amount of money on the games, even though the 439 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:46,680 Speaker 1: public is coming in aggressively with the individual tickets. It's 440 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 1: ten dollars ticket, ten dollar ticket on the Raiders, one 441 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:54,120 Speaker 1: hundred dollars ticket, one hundred dollars ticket on Miami. Here 442 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 1: is a good friend for you. Miami is off of 443 00:25:56,640 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 1: a more than four touchdown laws so four to down 444 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,720 Speaker 1: last remorse since two thousand and three, covering sixty two 445 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,879 Speaker 1: percent clip. It's like your instincts are so spot on 446 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 1: that if all of these games cover the apocalypse actually 447 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 1: has happened, It's not the pandemic that was the signal. 448 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,680 Speaker 1: It was you getting sharp. Okay, So here's my next 449 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,920 Speaker 1: bet I've already made. I got a better number. I 450 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,919 Speaker 1: got the Eagles plus four at Dallas, so I already 451 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:27,440 Speaker 1: got four. It's down to three and a half. So 452 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,960 Speaker 1: I'm gonna have a big week. Screw blazing five. I'm 453 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:31,480 Speaker 1: gonna have a great week. And that's why I tell 454 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,120 Speaker 1: people listen to this show because I'm making my bets 455 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,480 Speaker 1: now earlier. So I got the Eagles plus four, it's 456 00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:38,400 Speaker 1: now at three and a half at Dallas. Here's my takeaway. 457 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 1: That was a good loss for them. Jalen Hurts is 458 00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 1: going to face very few defensive fronts that are that aggressive. 459 00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,920 Speaker 1: Philadelphia Jimmy Garoppolo struggled in the first half. This was 460 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:54,359 Speaker 1: an ugly, ugly game. If you take what we perceive 461 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 1: Philadelphia to be before the first snap of the year 462 00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:00,119 Speaker 1: and what we perceived the Niners to be before the 463 00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 1: first snap of the year, that game had blowout written 464 00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 1: all over it. No, San Francisco was better, but it 465 00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 1: was a good loss for Philadelphia. Remember, Jalen Hurts is 466 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 1: in the process. He didn't have very many starts. We're 467 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,560 Speaker 1: really in a growth arc right now for him, and 468 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,280 Speaker 1: his ceiling I think is lower, but we're not. We're 469 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:22,920 Speaker 1: getting when you haven't done. When you're when you're learning Spanish, 470 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 1: the first six months, you're taking giant steps and then 471 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:31,120 Speaker 1: you get to a point it's baby steps. You've learned 472 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 1: basic communication. Jalen Hurts is still taking giant steps. He 473 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:39,320 Speaker 1: is getting four and five practices, film study. This guy 474 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:43,160 Speaker 1: got yanked last year as a starter, got yanked, got 475 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 1: benched in a game he was winning. I like the 476 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:50,200 Speaker 1: Eagles plus four. It's a division game. I think the 477 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:54,639 Speaker 1: Eagles defensive line is pretty damn good and is going 478 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,639 Speaker 1: to keep them in some of these games. This is 479 00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:00,040 Speaker 1: I don't know if they win, but possible upset. This 480 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 1: is a game I've already bet Eagles plus three and 481 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,440 Speaker 1: a half here, dude, you are one hund attacking it 482 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:09,080 Speaker 1: the right way. The Eagles are absolutely the sharp side. 483 00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:10,680 Speaker 1: The Eagles with the sharp side last week, and you 484 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 1: pointed it out with the Niners. I agree that was 485 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:15,399 Speaker 1: a good loss. You give me that game ten times 486 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:18,520 Speaker 1: with that number in that scenario, I am going to 487 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 1: take the Eagles. They were a very public dog last week. 488 00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,560 Speaker 1: What's really interesting to be is that we are getting 489 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 1: to a place in football where analytics is meeting courage. 490 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:37,360 Speaker 1: There is less and less cover your ass decision making happening, 491 00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:42,240 Speaker 1: and that can often play out advantageously for betters, and 492 00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,560 Speaker 1: sometimes it can hurt you. We saw it with the 493 00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,200 Speaker 1: Eagles last week, how often they went forward on fourth 494 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 1: and goal. A couple of times did they decide to 495 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,080 Speaker 1: settle for a field goal. We're having a different conversation 496 00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 1: about the Eagles being off of a good loss. We 497 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,560 Speaker 1: saw it with the Colts going forward consistently on fourth 498 00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:58,680 Speaker 1: and goal against the Rams. We saw it with Miami, 499 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 1: who they end up losing by, you know, thirty five points, 500 00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 1: but there were so many times they went for it 501 00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 1: inside the goal line. Coaches are realizing a seven points 502 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,240 Speaker 1: is better is better than three points. B If you 503 00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:15,280 Speaker 1: lose by three or you lose by thirty, it's still 504 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,360 Speaker 1: a loss. You might as well go for the win. 505 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:19,960 Speaker 1: We saw it with the Ravens over that win against 506 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,640 Speaker 1: Kansas City. If you get it, then the game is over. 507 00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 1: You see John Harbaugh on the sideline asking Lamar Jackson, 508 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:27,440 Speaker 1: you want to go for it on fourth and one? 509 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 1: Game over one hundred percent, this is the right side. 510 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:35,880 Speaker 1: The number has been moving in the Eagles direction. Candidly, 511 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,480 Speaker 1: our models have this game projected at Eagles plus two. 512 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:41,640 Speaker 1: So for context, that is about a five percent edge 513 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:45,160 Speaker 1: between what we projected at and what the number is 514 00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 1: actually at. Anything that it's one, one and a half 515 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 1: percent or higher for a professional better is usually a play. 516 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,720 Speaker 1: And this is also over a key number of three, 517 00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 1: where a lot of games land, a lot of divisional 518 00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,040 Speaker 1: games like we just talked about with the Charters in 519 00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:00,959 Speaker 1: the Chiefs, with the Bengals in the Steel and then 520 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,480 Speaker 1: finally just look at the market, like the Cowboys beat 521 00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 1: a team the public and the sharp's love in the Chargers, 522 00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:09,520 Speaker 1: and the Eagles loss is a public dog the week before. 523 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,120 Speaker 1: So that's why you're getting that edge that the market 524 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,640 Speaker 1: is overinflated on one side and underinflated on the other. 525 00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 1: All right, here's a game. I waited for a number 526 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 1: and I didn't get so I'm going to pass on it. 527 00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:21,800 Speaker 1: But I want the audience to learn something and I 528 00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 1: want to learn something as well. So the Browns were 529 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,040 Speaker 1: minus seven and a half and I was waiting for 530 00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:29,120 Speaker 1: it to go to eight, and if it did, I 531 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:33,280 Speaker 1: was going to bet Chicago because the Bears are getting 532 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:37,080 Speaker 1: some an interior lineman back, they're getting healthier on defense, 533 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:39,400 Speaker 1: and I do think there's an element of surprise with 534 00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:43,000 Speaker 1: Justin Fields and the Browns defense. Seven new starters is 535 00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,480 Speaker 1: clearly a work in progress. The number never went to eight. 536 00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,200 Speaker 1: It came back down to seven. I would pass. So 537 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,280 Speaker 1: this is what I just kept waiting and waiting. I 538 00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 1: thought I didn't know. If I didn't know what side 539 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 1: it would go to, I had no acumen here. I 540 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 1: just said, if it goes to eight, I'm going to 541 00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 1: jump on it. It didn't went to seven, I'd pass, 542 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 1: So I think it's a pass. But I did think 543 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 1: if you did get seven and a half and you're 544 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,120 Speaker 1: a Bears fan, that's not a terrible place to be 545 00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,920 Speaker 1: sharper square. How does that work for you? You know 546 00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,400 Speaker 1: that it's sharp if you're telling me I'm getting a 547 00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,120 Speaker 1: underdog at seven and a half. If that's the question, 548 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 1: that's the sharp play. That was already the sharp play 549 00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:24,440 Speaker 1: at seven. You're the professional here. It's not a game 550 00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,040 Speaker 1: the professionals are jumping on at all. This game actually 551 00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:29,640 Speaker 1: opened at seven. It got that up to seven and 552 00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:32,080 Speaker 1: a half. The Pros immediately took the Bears at seven 553 00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:33,760 Speaker 1: and a half. It went all the way down to 554 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,520 Speaker 1: six and a half. Then the Pros took the Browns 555 00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:39,160 Speaker 1: at minus six and a half. Now it's landed on 556 00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 1: seven and it's just sitting there and there's really nothing 557 00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:46,000 Speaker 1: to do. You do have the Justin Field factor either, 558 00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:49,160 Speaker 1: you believe that he is going to be a great quarterback. 559 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,520 Speaker 1: Who if you watched that game against Cincinnati, he was 560 00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,640 Speaker 1: making professional football throws. He showed incredible speed to the edge. 561 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:59,040 Speaker 1: He also held the ball forever. And as much as 562 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:02,400 Speaker 1: I'm huge Bears and I completely think that the Bears 563 00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,880 Speaker 1: should be playing Justin Fields, I think that he gives 564 00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:06,560 Speaker 1: them the best chance to win. I think if you're 565 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,800 Speaker 1: in the locker room you're looking at Matt Nagy and 566 00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:10,440 Speaker 1: you're thinking, why aren't you putting the best guy in 567 00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 1: the field to help us win football games. I do 568 00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:16,600 Speaker 1: think the one thing Andy Dalton has always been good 569 00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:18,680 Speaker 1: at is getting the ball out fast. He's top five 570 00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,840 Speaker 1: and fastest release the past five seasons according to the 571 00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:25,560 Speaker 1: next Gen Stats. And Justin Fields did hold the ball 572 00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,880 Speaker 1: way too long in that game last weekend, and a 573 00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:31,560 Speaker 1: couple of times it did cost him. So I understand 574 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,440 Speaker 1: why the number is bouncing around, why it's landing on seven. 575 00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:37,800 Speaker 1: And I gotta tell you, like we'll talking about the 576 00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:41,040 Speaker 1: Browns defense. It's okay, but you give me a pass 577 00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:44,400 Speaker 1: rush with its ears pinned back that starves Miles Garrett 578 00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,840 Speaker 1: against a rookie QB on the road who holds the 579 00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:51,680 Speaker 1: ball too long and is still processing in real time. 580 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:57,240 Speaker 1: I would have to take the Browns or pass, and 581 00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,200 Speaker 1: I'm at seven. I'm going to pass. Here's another when 582 00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,959 Speaker 1: I did not bet, but I strongly considered. I strongly 583 00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,200 Speaker 1: considered taking the Seahawks minus two and a half of 584 00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:08,360 Speaker 1: the Vikings. My concern is Minnesota is going to be 585 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:10,600 Speaker 1: in a lot of shootouts because they're, like, right now, 586 00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:14,720 Speaker 1: the top six offense, and the Seahawks have played mostly 587 00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:16,920 Speaker 1: good football. They played a very good opener, they played 588 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,200 Speaker 1: a very good half against Tennessee. They had a lousy 589 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,959 Speaker 1: fourth quarter. So let's not jump off the Seahawks bandwagon. 590 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,120 Speaker 1: But I do think Minnesota is a desperate football team 591 00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:30,320 Speaker 1: at home getting points. I stay away from this game. 592 00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 1: I think Seattle wins. I just don't like the number. 593 00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:37,240 Speaker 1: If it was pick them, might take Seattle. Maybe it's one, 594 00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:39,560 Speaker 1: but I'm going to stay away from it. But I 595 00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:42,960 Speaker 1: don't like betting against coaches I respect and offenses that 596 00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:47,320 Speaker 1: are capable at home and they're and they're desperate. I 597 00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:50,280 Speaker 1: just I'm just not comfortable going I'm just I'm not comfortable. 598 00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:52,160 Speaker 1: But I thought it was it was I wanted to 599 00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:55,680 Speaker 1: explain this to people listening because I think this is 600 00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,000 Speaker 1: a game I considered, and I just I got a 601 00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:00,440 Speaker 1: coach I like, I got an offense I like at home, 602 00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,120 Speaker 1: and they're desperate. I'm staying away from it. It is 603 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,720 Speaker 1: to me, it is the hardest game on the board. 604 00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:08,920 Speaker 1: And you know what's interesting. Normally, you know, you and 605 00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:11,280 Speaker 1: I'll talk during the week, and I think we didn't 606 00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:15,080 Speaker 1: connect earlier this week because I was traveling this week, 607 00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:18,680 Speaker 1: but I didn't know you were going to come at 608 00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,759 Speaker 1: me with all these games until about mid day to day, 609 00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:23,920 Speaker 1: and so I was doing a little bit of work 610 00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:28,000 Speaker 1: and I saw this game, and I thought you were 611 00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:31,399 Speaker 1: going to take the Seahawks. I think, and I wrote 612 00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:34,000 Speaker 1: in my notes, Minnesota at the sharp side in this 613 00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,840 Speaker 1: game at plus two and a half. But it is 614 00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,680 Speaker 1: a really hard game to handicap, and it sort of 615 00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:45,839 Speaker 1: brings together everything that professional betters think about. Thirty three 616 00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:49,120 Speaker 1: percent of the bets are coming in on the vikings, 617 00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,960 Speaker 1: but they're getting sixty percent of the money. That is 618 00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:57,279 Speaker 1: a classic pros Joe's formula. The vikings are and two 619 00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:04,080 Speaker 1: owen two teams at home. The betting public overadjusts too quickly, 620 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:08,320 Speaker 1: which leaves you an opportunity. Mike zimmer Off of the 621 00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:12,200 Speaker 1: loss against the spread, you mentioned respecting coaches amongst the 622 00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,879 Speaker 1: best coaches in the NFL. He gets his team ready 623 00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:18,160 Speaker 1: to play and they are almost always in these games 624 00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:21,000 Speaker 1: until the end. You saw it last week against Arizona, 625 00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:24,239 Speaker 1: same spot, right, So you have to ask yourself, did 626 00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:26,680 Speaker 1: they lose to a better than expected Bengals team, Did 627 00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:29,160 Speaker 1: they lose on a Fluke to it better than expected 628 00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,560 Speaker 1: Cardinal team, are they actually not that good? Like their 629 00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:35,840 Speaker 1: corners are awful. They're going against Russell Wilson, T J. Lockett, 630 00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:39,120 Speaker 1: DK Metcalfe, and they're due one struggles against mobile quarterbacks. 631 00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:41,480 Speaker 1: So you've got a lot of market conditions, a lot 632 00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:43,719 Speaker 1: of trends in their favor. But on the field, you 633 00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,800 Speaker 1: might have a team in Seattle that is actually just 634 00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:50,120 Speaker 1: better than they are and their strengths match up against 635 00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:54,400 Speaker 1: the Vikings weaknesses, which is why I agree with you. 636 00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,239 Speaker 1: I'm walking away from this game, so I really like 637 00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:01,799 Speaker 1: my picks this week to Yeah, no, I think there 638 00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,120 Speaker 1: are there are weeks. I saw it and it happens 639 00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:06,400 Speaker 1: about three or four times a year when I look 640 00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:08,880 Speaker 1: up Monday, I'm like, holy shit, these are great lines. 641 00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,439 Speaker 1: And I bet all of them, and I got better 642 00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,440 Speaker 1: numbers with all of them except Miami, which I think 643 00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:16,960 Speaker 1: later in the week I got half a point, so 644 00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,239 Speaker 1: I didn't bet that. But the three I jumped on 645 00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,720 Speaker 1: was the Washington football team. I jumped on the Patriots, 646 00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:25,720 Speaker 1: I jumped on the Bengals, and I jumped on the Eagles. 647 00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:29,160 Speaker 1: Those games I they just screamed, you know. It was 648 00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:31,719 Speaker 1: funny because last week I told you this, it was 649 00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,080 Speaker 1: a weird week. I could talk myself in and out 650 00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:38,360 Speaker 1: of stuff. This week great. Sometimes you see the board clearly, 651 00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,480 Speaker 1: you know, and it's a joy when you feel like 652 00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:45,040 Speaker 1: and these opportunities really come the most in the first 653 00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:49,080 Speaker 1: four weeks because that's when people are overreacting to certain 654 00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:51,200 Speaker 1: things they see on the field, or they're not seeing 655 00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:53,480 Speaker 1: every game so they're only reacting to what they see. 656 00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:55,960 Speaker 1: Is the final score. The Eagles Cowboys game is a 657 00:36:56,040 --> 00:37:00,160 Speaker 1: perfect example of that. I think the Chargers like, I'm 658 00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:02,160 Speaker 1: probably not with you on the Chiefs on that one. 659 00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:04,400 Speaker 1: That is going to be the sharp side. Can I 660 00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:09,239 Speaker 1: interest you in any Jacksonville Jaguars plus seven and a 661 00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:17,239 Speaker 1: half at home? Oh boy? You know. I never liked arugula, 662 00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:20,800 Speaker 1: and so I never experimented with it, and so I 663 00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,840 Speaker 1: don't have the kind of personality that I feel a 664 00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:27,239 Speaker 1: need to try things that I don't like. So I 665 00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:30,799 Speaker 1: don't like the Jaguars. I feel no need to jump 666 00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:36,680 Speaker 1: on and that's my personality. I don't drink rum. I 667 00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:40,920 Speaker 1: have no interest to ever try rum, and so I'm 668 00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:42,640 Speaker 1: never going to jump out of a plane. It doesn't 669 00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:45,080 Speaker 1: interest me. So a lot of people have these cravings 670 00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,880 Speaker 1: and I do not, And so I am not going 671 00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:52,080 Speaker 1: to touch Jacksonville. And let me guess you love them 672 00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:56,960 Speaker 1: this week. No, it's funny. Look, they're definitely the sharp side. 673 00:37:57,480 --> 00:38:00,360 Speaker 1: And I feel like in every conversation you and I 674 00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:03,840 Speaker 1: have ever had about betting, I will tell you Jacksonville 675 00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:06,320 Speaker 1: is the sharp side. And this is the first weekend 676 00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:08,839 Speaker 1: in which I'm looking at Jacksonville and thinking, of course, 677 00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,279 Speaker 1: to the sharp side. You know, they're an O and 678 00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:15,440 Speaker 1: two team, huge underdog at home. Every single trend system, 679 00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:19,840 Speaker 1: every single marketing condition is lining up to bet on 680 00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:24,080 Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars, and I can't do it because I 681 00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,719 Speaker 1: think Urban Meyer is so bad. I think what that 682 00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:30,120 Speaker 1: conversation that was picked up with Vic Fangio and then 683 00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:33,880 Speaker 1: Vic Fangio talking about it. Every week we're playing Alabama, Like, 684 00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:37,680 Speaker 1: no shit, dude, what did you think? Like you're gonna 685 00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,320 Speaker 1: get Akron every once in a while. You've got the 686 00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:44,600 Speaker 1: worst team in NFL, in the NFL with a quarterback 687 00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:47,399 Speaker 1: who's a rookie, and you're out of your depth. Every 688 00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:51,680 Speaker 1: week is Alabama. Every week is the freaking Patriots. For you. 689 00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:55,399 Speaker 1: It gave me a huge lack of confidence in betting 690 00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,440 Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars is underdogs. Do you think he's Do 691 00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:03,040 Speaker 1: you think Urban if he goes one in sixteen 'll quit? Dude? 692 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,600 Speaker 1: If he goes one to eleven, he might quit. I would. 693 00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,120 Speaker 1: It would not surprise me at all if he did 694 00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:10,279 Speaker 1: not make it through this season, you know what. So 695 00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:12,400 Speaker 1: I don't think he is. But I have a friend 696 00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:15,880 Speaker 1: who knows Urban and has dealt with him for years. 697 00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:19,960 Speaker 1: He's a Midwest Big ten guy, and says, and he 698 00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:25,200 Speaker 1: told me this week, he goes, don't don't shake off USC. 699 00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:27,920 Speaker 1: He goes, if this thing is one in sixteen and 700 00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:31,920 Speaker 1: Shad Con gets wacky, he goes, Urban will bolt in 701 00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,279 Speaker 1: a second. So I don't think it's going to happen, 702 00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:39,120 Speaker 1: but it is interesting, you know, Oh and eight may 703 00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:42,440 Speaker 1: not work, just O and eight. So I don't think 704 00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:45,000 Speaker 1: the USC thing is in play. But you know, like 705 00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:47,960 Speaker 1: everything else, most of life is fluid. You know. One 706 00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:50,080 Speaker 1: of the things I tell my kids all the time, 707 00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:53,239 Speaker 1: something isn't true until it's true. You know, you just 708 00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:55,200 Speaker 1: don't know, Like you look at stuff and you go, 709 00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,759 Speaker 1: that's not true, and then it happens, and we're there 710 00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:02,239 Speaker 1: are surprises every day in the world, and you're like, whoa, Look, 711 00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:07,600 Speaker 1: it is true. And so at this point I don't 712 00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:13,200 Speaker 1: give usc any shot. But Urban is mobile. He's a 713 00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:17,960 Speaker 1: very mobile coach. As we said in the beginning of 714 00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:21,080 Speaker 1: the show. In relation to you, the Chiefs in September 715 00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:26,759 Speaker 1: and losing everything is impossible until it's no longer impossible. 716 00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:30,520 Speaker 1: Urban Meyer leaving in the middle of the season would 717 00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:35,320 Speaker 1: not be impossible to me. God, that's it. That's it. 718 00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:37,160 Speaker 1: That's all I gotta say. I got one more thing 719 00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:41,560 Speaker 1: for you. As you know, we've gifted you an entry 720 00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:45,040 Speaker 1: into the Survivor pool I won last week two. You're 721 00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:48,319 Speaker 1: doing great, You're killing it. You are going to win 722 00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:49,840 Speaker 1: a lot of money off this. I'm excited for you. 723 00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:53,400 Speaker 1: This week, we've decided it's Thursday afternoon when we recorded this. 724 00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:55,160 Speaker 1: I know this comes out on Friday, so people will 725 00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:57,680 Speaker 1: know the answer. But it came down today to the 726 00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:01,200 Speaker 1: Panthers and the Broncos, and feeling is that we won't 727 00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:03,200 Speaker 1: get a chance to use the Panthers again. There might 728 00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:05,560 Speaker 1: be situations in which their schedule is more difficult at 729 00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:08,759 Speaker 1: the end of the year. So we've decided to take 730 00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:10,960 Speaker 1: a shot It's always scary to take a big road 731 00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:15,200 Speaker 1: favorite on a Thursday night game, but we're going with 732 00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:18,479 Speaker 1: the Panthers. Yeah. I don't love it as a lock, 733 00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:22,480 Speaker 1: but I will say this, the Texans are now down 734 00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:28,440 Speaker 1: to the backup to their backup, so and Matt Rule 735 00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:31,880 Speaker 1: has jumped out to two quick leads with Darnold. And 736 00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,640 Speaker 1: that's so. He's a good schemer. And Sam with a 737 00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:37,640 Speaker 1: lead in a running game is a different quarterback than 738 00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:41,480 Speaker 1: Sam trailing in New York with no running game. You know. Also, 739 00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:43,319 Speaker 1: I don't know if I told you this last week. 740 00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:45,879 Speaker 1: There's a remarkable NFL stat with Matt Rule. It doesn't 741 00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:51,320 Speaker 1: even make sense. With two starts with Sam Darnold and 742 00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:55,720 Speaker 1: sixteen or seventeen with Teddy Bridgewater. He has the fewest 743 00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:58,000 Speaker 1: three and outs in the NFL since the beginning of 744 00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:02,160 Speaker 1: last year. Not Mahomes, not Rogers, not Brady, not Russell, 745 00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:09,400 Speaker 1: Matt Rule. This is a really sharp coach. Donald is 746 00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:16,520 Speaker 1: throwing two open receivers, open receivers in single coverage like 747 00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:21,000 Speaker 1: they Donald's just not throwing and do double coverage, which 748 00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:24,480 Speaker 1: was his propensity in New York. People are schemed open. 749 00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:28,200 Speaker 1: He's mostly going to his first reads. Watch him. It's 750 00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,720 Speaker 1: three step balls out first read guy open. That's coaching. 751 00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:36,120 Speaker 1: You know, it's really interesting, and I know we gotta 752 00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:39,840 Speaker 1: get going. But what's really interesting is the opportunity with 753 00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:43,200 Speaker 1: the Panthers. I loved them going into the season. Simon Hunter, 754 00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:45,719 Speaker 1: my co host, loved them going into the season. We 755 00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:47,960 Speaker 1: thought this was a team that is incredibly well coached 756 00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:49,880 Speaker 1: and was going to be undervalued because of what they 757 00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:53,719 Speaker 1: did last year. So of course Week one, love them 758 00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:57,440 Speaker 1: against the Jets. They cover just inside the number. The 759 00:42:57,520 --> 00:42:59,239 Speaker 1: number advanced around from five and a half. When it 760 00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:00,839 Speaker 1: got down to four, we bet them at four. They 761 00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,480 Speaker 1: won by five. Against the Jets. Last week, we felt 762 00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:07,000 Speaker 1: like great opportunity, home underdog against the Saints, pound the 763 00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:11,120 Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers. Love it. Immediately when that game started, I 764 00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:14,320 Speaker 1: knew the opportunity to make money on the Panthers for 765 00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:18,480 Speaker 1: professional betters was over. No more value, it's gone. That 766 00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:22,000 Speaker 1: timeline for getting to take advantage of teams where you 767 00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:24,920 Speaker 1: think you're going to see value before the market catches 768 00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:27,919 Speaker 1: up is over. You mentioned fandel before, you mentioned Action 769 00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:31,080 Speaker 1: Network before. There's so many more casual betters in the 770 00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:35,080 Speaker 1: market who are betting real money, and it's changing the 771 00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:37,520 Speaker 1: movement of these lines. You gotta get in early if 772 00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:39,239 Speaker 1: you want to get the four and a half on 773 00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:41,600 Speaker 1: the Bengals, if you want to get the number on 774 00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:45,479 Speaker 1: the Patriots. And we're seeing everything accelerate. It's getting harder 775 00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,640 Speaker 1: and harder to maintain the value. All Right, my friend, 776 00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:51,520 Speaker 1: this is I feel very strong about this week. I'm 777 00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:53,160 Speaker 1: want to make some people some money. I got better 778 00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:56,880 Speaker 1: numbers early, but nonetheless I'm still like, like my sides, 779 00:43:57,080 --> 00:44:00,040 Speaker 1: me too. Brother, all right, buddy later. That's Chad co, 780 00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:04,840 Speaker 1: Chief content Officer, Action Network. Go follow us at The 781 00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:09,040 Speaker 1: Volume Sports, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, rate review, subscribe, good stuff, 782 00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:41,880 Speaker 1: have a great weekend. The Volume