1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,119
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

2
00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

3
00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,560
Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Applecarclay and Android Auto

4
00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,680
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

5
00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,120
Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,400
Speaker 2: Thank you so much. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington.

7
00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,440
Speaker 3: This is Balance of Power, the early edition on a

8
00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:33,879
Speaker 3: Tuesday Bloomberg Radio Satellite radio Channel one twenty one, and

9
00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:36,199
Speaker 3: you can watch the radio on TV by going to

10
00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:39,480
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Originals or to YouTube search Bloomberg Business News Live

11
00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:41,319
Speaker 3: for this program or all of our shows that come

12
00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:43,600
Speaker 3: from Washington and New York throughout the day. It's the

13
00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:45,760
Speaker 3: coolest thing I've said this before that we've got going.

14
00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:48,839
Speaker 3: You can pause it, you can back it up when

15
00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:52,120
Speaker 3: you want to hear exactly what Peter Navarro just said.

16
00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,760
Speaker 3: He was speaking yesterday in a big day yesterday, the

17
00:00:55,760 --> 00:01:09,120
Speaker 3: optics in geopolitics were striking putin mody that alone.

18
00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:08,160
Speaker 2: Is an item.

19
00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:10,520
Speaker 3: Ad President, She and You've got quite a story here.

20
00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:13,920
Speaker 3: They were shaking hands, they were hugging, they were laughing,

21
00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:17,840
Speaker 3: and a striking answer to the summit.

22
00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:19,720
Speaker 2: That we saw in Alaska.

23
00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:23,039
Speaker 3: Peter Navarro, the President's trade adviser, was out at the

24
00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:26,920
Speaker 3: sticks in the White House driveway talking about trade with India.

25
00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:30,279
Speaker 3: You know, we are now looking at a fifty percent

26
00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:32,480
Speaker 3: tariff on India, and the last time we spoke with

27
00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:34,680
Speaker 3: Peter here in this studio, it was unclear whether we

28
00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:38,839
Speaker 3: were actually still in talks with India, having seen negotiations

29
00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:40,920
Speaker 3: break down. That's what he had to say in the

30
00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:42,320
Speaker 3: driveway at the White House yesterday.

31
00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,640
Speaker 4: Listen, it was a shame to see Mody getting in

32
00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:48,680
Speaker 4: bed as the leader of the biggest democracy in the

33
00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,960
Speaker 4: world with the two biggest authoritarian dictators in the world

34
00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:54,040
Speaker 4: in Putin and Hi Jipig.

35
00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:56,400
Speaker 2: That doesn't make any sense.

36
00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:05,360
Speaker 3: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the SCO, the Eurasian Security Grouping

37
00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,639
Speaker 3: met on Monday alongside the heads of state from these

38
00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,600
Speaker 3: other countries, which is why we found this remarkable collection

39
00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:14,360
Speaker 3: of people, and it's brought a really great piece of

40
00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:17,120
Speaker 3: reporting to the terminal here as we look at the

41
00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:22,320
Speaker 3: big picture with questions about redrawing the geopolitical map as

42
00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:25,680
Speaker 3: we know it, China she redraws geopolitical map with embrace

43
00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,600
Speaker 3: of Putin and Mody. Adam Ferrer covers all of this

44
00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:31,960
Speaker 3: for a living at Bloomberg Economics, where he is Senior

45
00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:34,440
Speaker 3: Geoeconomics Analyst for the Asia Pacific.

46
00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:36,200
Speaker 2: It's great to see you, welcome back.

47
00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:38,880
Speaker 3: I hope you had a great weekend, because we're trying

48
00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:43,919
Speaker 3: to understand really what's happening here, the redrawing of geopolitical lines.

49
00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:47,040
Speaker 3: It was only a couple of days ago. Peter Navarro

50
00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:50,680
Speaker 3: sat here and referred to Mody's war, remembering that the

51
00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:53,440
Speaker 3: twenty five percent that was added on here to bring

52
00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:56,120
Speaker 3: it to fifty was punishment for India buying Russian oil.

53
00:02:56,880 --> 00:03:03,280
Speaker 2: Now we find them together literal embrace. Did the US

54
00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:04,320
Speaker 2: push India there?

55
00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:09,280
Speaker 5: So the imagery was stark as you've walked through, not

56
00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:13,480
Speaker 5: only individually between Mody and President Chie of China, but

57
00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:17,400
Speaker 5: obviously President Putin of Russia hand in hand talking, laughing.

58
00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:21,040
Speaker 5: President Modi or Primacy Modi also took a ride in

59
00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:25,840
Speaker 5: President in the limo wanted to top Trump on that.

60
00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,239
Speaker 2: Right. They only got five minutes of the these that's right, potentially.

61
00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:34,160
Speaker 5: I mean, what's clear is that Mody is demonstrating his

62
00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:38,560
Speaker 5: freedom of action, his own autonomy and the fact that

63
00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,720
Speaker 5: India has other choices out there, not just the United States,

64
00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:45,360
Speaker 5: and the timing of this summit, which has obviously been

65
00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:47,560
Speaker 5: on the books for for a long period of time,

66
00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,880
Speaker 5: gave him that opportunity to demonstrate that there were other options.

67
00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:52,560
Speaker 2: Now.

68
00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:56,080
Speaker 5: To be clear, though, the scope of his discussions with

69
00:03:56,120 --> 00:04:00,040
Speaker 5: both Russia and China were far more limited than the

70
00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,440
Speaker 5: pictures would let us believe, particularly when we look at China,

71
00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:06,160
Speaker 5: a country that India Indian soldiers have actually gone to

72
00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:08,600
Speaker 5: blows with as recently as just a few years ago,

73
00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:13,000
Speaker 5: that has deep structural problems in their relationship, deep concerns

74
00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,920
Speaker 5: about competition that China has, about India's growing economy, and

75
00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:21,240
Speaker 5: India's concern about China dominating its economy and limitating its

76
00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:23,919
Speaker 5: autonomy in the region, both as a security partner and

77
00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:27,080
Speaker 5: as an economic entity. And so with that in mind,

78
00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:30,839
Speaker 5: this was a tactical shift on Modi's part, not a

79
00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:34,039
Speaker 5: strategic shift in terms of realignment with President Shei in

80
00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:36,560
Speaker 5: the long term. And when we look at the announcements

81
00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:38,400
Speaker 5: actually the substance of what came out of this, we

82
00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:39,159
Speaker 5: saw very little.

83
00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:39,599
Speaker 6: Right.

84
00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:44,200
Speaker 5: We saw talk of returning to direct flights between China

85
00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:48,480
Speaker 5: and India. We saw some discussion of smaller levels of

86
00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,119
Speaker 5: border trade, but that's the level that we're talking about.

87
00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,480
Speaker 5: Despite those pictures, there's still a lot to do. And

88
00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:58,240
Speaker 5: with Russia we saw a much friendlier relationship. Right Putin

89
00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:01,200
Speaker 5: and Mody see themselves a strategy partners and have for

90
00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:05,080
Speaker 5: some time. Mody was demonstrating directly, you know, a pushback

91
00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:07,440
Speaker 5: against the White House that he could still have his

92
00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:10,120
Speaker 5: relationship and that he was going to continue to buy

93
00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:14,120
Speaker 5: oil and trade with Moscow and all of that designed

94
00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:17,080
Speaker 5: for both the domestic audience and for those in Washington

95
00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:18,760
Speaker 5: to understand that they can't push him around.

96
00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:21,479
Speaker 3: Well, it's really interesting that the White House was having

97
00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:24,720
Speaker 3: this conversation last week ahead of this taking place. And

98
00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:26,520
Speaker 3: I want to go back to what Peter Navarro said

99
00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:29,560
Speaker 3: here on the program when he was referring to India

100
00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:34,800
Speaker 3: purchasing Russian oil to the benefit of Moscow and its

101
00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:35,920
Speaker 3: war machine in Ukraine.

102
00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:36,640
Speaker 2: Here's what he said.

103
00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,400
Speaker 4: Everybody in America loses because of what India is doing.

104
00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:45,279
Speaker 4: That consumers and businesses and everything lose, and workers lose

105
00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:48,760
Speaker 4: because India's high tariffs cost his jobs and factories in

106
00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:52,279
Speaker 4: income and higher wages, and then the taxpayers lose because

107
00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:53,880
Speaker 4: we got to fund Mody's war.

108
00:05:56,240 --> 00:06:00,320
Speaker 3: We've got to fund Mody's war. What role was, just

109
00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,440
Speaker 3: backing away a little bit from the specifics of what

110
00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:06,039
Speaker 3: he just said, is the war in Ukraine playing in

111
00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:07,000
Speaker 3: this relationship.

112
00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:12,440
Speaker 5: So the reality for Mody is that Ukraine is not

113
00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,640
Speaker 5: front of mind, right he's thinking about It's a non sequity.

114
00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:17,040
Speaker 5: It's a separate discussion.

115
00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:20,279
Speaker 3: But people see them laughing and shaking hands, thinking that, ah,

116
00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:25,280
Speaker 3: these bad guys were funding the war. Prime Minister Modi

117
00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:27,840
Speaker 3: is simply looking for the cheapest oil for as many

118
00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:28,560
Speaker 3: people as he can.

119
00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:30,599
Speaker 2: Is it as simple as that? How about President She?

120
00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:34,920
Speaker 5: So for both of them, oil prices are important, right,

121
00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:37,200
Speaker 5: I mean that it makes up a large portion of

122
00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:40,400
Speaker 5: their need. Both are very dependent on energy imports. And

123
00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:42,840
Speaker 5: as you said, for Mody, this is about cheap oil.

124
00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:45,400
Speaker 5: It is about a broader strategic relationship with a key

125
00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:48,600
Speaker 5: defense partner in Russia. But Mody has tried to work

126
00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,080
Speaker 5: his way in the middle, maintaining a strong relationship and

127
00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:55,240
Speaker 5: developing relationship with Ukraine and Russia and even trying at

128
00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:58,359
Speaker 5: times to try to push for that peace agreement, but

129
00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:01,680
Speaker 5: not risking his own political care capital to do so.

130
00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:02,400
Speaker 2: Beijing is in a.

131
00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:07,880
Speaker 5: Very different position right following the Russia's broader invasion of Ukraine,

132
00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:12,520
Speaker 5: Beijing stepped in to support Moscow as Western sanctions really

133
00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:14,840
Speaker 5: started to cripple the economy and has now become its

134
00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:19,520
Speaker 5: primary and principal economic and security partner globally. And so

135
00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:23,680
Speaker 5: this meeting with President Chi and President Putin was yet

136
00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:26,200
Speaker 5: another moment for them to highlight that that relationship isn't

137
00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:28,560
Speaker 5: changing and that they're going to continue to grow what

138
00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:31,240
Speaker 5: has become over two hundred and fifty billion dollar trading

139
00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:36,040
Speaker 5: relationship and a key lifeline for Moscow as it continues

140
00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:38,560
Speaker 5: to conduct its war in Ukraine.

141
00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:40,080
Speaker 3: I've only got a minute at them, but I'm just

142
00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:43,920
Speaker 3: wondering what happened to your phone? What happened at your

143
00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:46,960
Speaker 3: desk on Friday a little after five o'clock when the

144
00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:50,720
Speaker 3: Appeals Court ruled along with the International Trade Court to

145
00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:54,200
Speaker 3: say that most all of Donald Trump's tariff regime is illegal.

146
00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:58,440
Speaker 2: So I think this didn't catch many of us by surprise.

147
00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:01,400
Speaker 5: Based on the arguments that were put forward before, there

148
00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:03,360
Speaker 5: was an understanding that the court was likely to rule

149
00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:06,640
Speaker 5: that the President exceeded his authority under AIPA to.

150
00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:07,680
Speaker 2: Put these tariffs in place.

151
00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:12,080
Speaker 5: That said, across are you know, people were talking to

152
00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:15,440
Speaker 5: and what we're hearing from, you know, other global partners

153
00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:17,360
Speaker 5: is that there's an expectation that Trump is committed to

154
00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:19,640
Speaker 5: these tariffs, that he's going to find a way to

155
00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:22,520
Speaker 5: get those tariffs in place, whether it's through AIPA or

156
00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:24,560
Speaker 5: through a variety of other text place.

157
00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:26,120
Speaker 2: The emergency and it's a different.

158
00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:28,880
Speaker 5: Comp yes, But that said, uncertainty looms large again, right

159
00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:32,120
Speaker 5: while terriffs might come back at what rate, on what

160
00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:34,920
Speaker 5: goods and how will they be implemented, so you know,

161
00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:36,680
Speaker 5: and throw on top of that this question of whether

162
00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:39,400
Speaker 5: they'd have to refund all of the tariffs that brought in,

163
00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:41,960
Speaker 5: and you know, there's some really big questions.

164
00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:45,280
Speaker 3: Left spending that money right now, Adam, it's great to

165
00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:45,520
Speaker 3: see you.

166
00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:46,120
Speaker 2: Thank you so much.

167
00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:49,400
Speaker 3: It's always a smart conversation with Adam Fair Bloomberg Economics,

168
00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:51,240
Speaker 3: and it's exactly what Adam was just talking about.

169
00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:54,760
Speaker 2: The uncertainty. The very reason we wanted to talk to.

170
00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:58,559
Speaker 3: Christina Quino, Managing editor for Bloomberg Markets Live Blog, This

171
00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,440
Speaker 3: is the person who's got the minute by minute breakdown

172
00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:03,720
Speaker 3: on stock trading, and the last time I looked, we

173
00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:05,800
Speaker 3: were pretty close to our lows of the session. Here

174
00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:08,199
Speaker 3: we woke up with a five hundred point decline right

175
00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:10,040
Speaker 3: out of the gate on the Dow. The S and

176
00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:13,200
Speaker 3: P five hundred is down almost one hundred points one

177
00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:16,560
Speaker 3: and a half percent. Christine, Uncertainty is the word here,

178
00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,760
Speaker 3: because you'd think that tariffs going away might make the

179
00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:21,720
Speaker 3: market happy, but the fact is we don't know.

180
00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:25,560
Speaker 6: Again, absolutely, Joe, Again, markets are back in limbo, and

181
00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:27,920
Speaker 6: that is ultimately what they're allergic to you when it

182
00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:31,160
Speaker 6: comes to all these policy developments, right. I mean, the

183
00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:35,120
Speaker 6: impact of the policy is one thing, but just questions

184
00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:37,720
Speaker 6: over how it's going to be implemented, when it's going

185
00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:40,400
Speaker 6: to be implemented, and now whether it's going to be implemented,

186
00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:43,640
Speaker 6: given the questions over the legality of all of this.

187
00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,400
Speaker 6: I mean, this is exactly the type of stuff that

188
00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,000
Speaker 6: investors don't like to see, and this is exactly what

189
00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:53,040
Speaker 6: we're seeing, and combined with the seasonal weakness that we

190
00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,600
Speaker 6: do tend to see in markets in September, it really

191
00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:57,960
Speaker 6: just makes for a recipe for bad news. And this

192
00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,360
Speaker 6: is exactly what we're seeing in both stocks and bond

193
00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:01,080
Speaker 6: markets today.

194
00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:03,600
Speaker 2: I'm glad you mentioned the seasonality.

195
00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:06,040
Speaker 3: So tell our listeners and viewers what we might be

196
00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:08,559
Speaker 3: in for here, because you've got a market that some

197
00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:12,040
Speaker 3: would suggest as priced for perfection, certainly one that's near

198
00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:15,360
Speaker 3: record highs and we just learned a lot in what's

199
00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:18,000
Speaker 3: at least left of this earnings reporting season. Are we

200
00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:19,720
Speaker 3: begging for a little correction here?

201
00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:23,719
Speaker 6: It seems that way, Joe, Yeah, absolutely, just because, as

202
00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:27,680
Speaker 6: you mentioned, stocks enter September price for perfection, and we

203
00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:30,160
Speaker 6: already got some whispers, for instance, of some of the

204
00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:33,040
Speaker 6: big themes right that have been driving equities in the

205
00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,600
Speaker 6: first eight months of the year. That is still that

206
00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,600
Speaker 6: AI tech theme. But we did get a signal from

207
00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:42,560
Speaker 6: Nvidia that growth in that space will be moderating over

208
00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:44,720
Speaker 6: the next few years, I mean, and it's inevitable that

209
00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:47,719
Speaker 6: it can't just keep growing at a record paced year

210
00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:50,800
Speaker 6: after year. And so there's that realization at a time

211
00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:55,360
Speaker 6: when the valuations, even though they've come down from record highs,

212
00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:59,520
Speaker 6: are still pretty lofty. And then you add in uncertainty

213
00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:02,760
Speaker 6: over what's going to happen to the Federal Reserve, both

214
00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,959
Speaker 6: in terms of its personnel, and also the policy meeting

215
00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:09,320
Speaker 6: that we're going to see on September seventeenth, is there

216
00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:11,839
Speaker 6: going to be a rate cut or if not, what

217
00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:14,480
Speaker 6: the bread path looks like for the rest of the year.

218
00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,120
Speaker 6: Throw all of these in together, and this is what

219
00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:20,440
Speaker 6: we get for a September back to school reality check.

220
00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:23,800
Speaker 3: Oh you had to remind me, I know it kind

221
00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:25,760
Speaker 3: of Do you feel like it's back to school today?

222
00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:28,559
Speaker 3: It's not like we weren't at work already, but now

223
00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:30,680
Speaker 3: I feel like I'm stressed out to go back to

224
00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:33,280
Speaker 3: work in school. How about this Bank of America call?

225
00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:37,520
Speaker 3: This is something else. Considering the backdrop that you just painted, Christine.

226
00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:40,240
Speaker 3: In our remaining moment, the S and P five hundred

227
00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:45,080
Speaker 3: to hit nine hundred and fourteen by September twenty seven,

228
00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:49,840
Speaker 3: fifty two percent higher from these levels. What are they

229
00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:50,679
Speaker 3: drinking at b of.

230
00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:54,920
Speaker 6: A Listen, They're obviously drinking optimism juice over there, and

231
00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:58,199
Speaker 6: I would like some if that's possible. But again, you know,

232
00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:00,960
Speaker 6: there will always be equity balls in this market. That's

233
00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:03,959
Speaker 6: never going to be a shortage. But perhaps what we're

234
00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:07,320
Speaker 6: seeing is just a short term correction. It really remains

235
00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:10,720
Speaker 6: to be seen. But every time we do see something

236
00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:12,760
Speaker 6: like this, there will always be people willing to buy.

237
00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:17,600
Speaker 3: Well, I guess so I'll take what they're having past

238
00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:20,800
Speaker 3: the optimism juice around up there in New York. Christina,

239
00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,280
Speaker 3: it's great to have you come on more often. Christina Kino,

240
00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,680
Speaker 3: Managing editor for the Bloomberg Markets Live blog that you

241
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,920
Speaker 3: rely on every day. We'll assemble our panel next they're

242
00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:31,640
Speaker 3: back together. Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis off the long

243
00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:33,840
Speaker 3: weekend and only here on Bloomberg.

244
00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:36,280
Speaker 2: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much

245
00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:37,480
Speaker 2: more coming up after this.

246
00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:45,200
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

247
00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:48,320
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

248
00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:51,680
Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

249
00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:54,760
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

250
00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:59,880
Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

251
00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:02,800
Speaker 3: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington, and this is Balance of

252
00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:05,960
Speaker 3: Power alongside Credi Gupta here in the Nation's capital in

253
00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:10,000
Speaker 3: for Kayley Lines. As we turn our attention to domestic politics, Creedy,

254
00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:13,000
Speaker 3: We've been talking so much about the potential for National

255
00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:16,880
Speaker 3: Guard troops or federal law enforcement to enter. Chicago has

256
00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:19,480
Speaker 3: been the next city that President Trump has highlighted here,

257
00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:22,040
Speaker 3: of course, they're on the streets of Washington, d C.

258
00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:25,280
Speaker 3: He's suggested other cities like New York might get that

259
00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,680
Speaker 3: treatment next. All of this, of course, began in Los

260
00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:30,280
Speaker 3: Angeles a couple of months ago.

261
00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:33,040
Speaker 7: And at the time, even when he was threatening Los Angeles,

262
00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:35,360
Speaker 7: no one really took it that seriously. This was an

263
00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:39,480
Speaker 7: unthinkable move in terms of troops, in terms of actually

264
00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:40,839
Speaker 7: the legalities around it.

265
00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:43,600
Speaker 8: And now we find out, well, it's actually not legal

266
00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:44,160
Speaker 8: to do that.

267
00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:46,160
Speaker 3: Well, we did get a court ruling that's going to

268
00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:49,640
Speaker 3: raise some real questions about going into other cities. The

269
00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:51,719
Speaker 3: president has a lot of leeway here in Washington, d C.

270
00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:53,760
Speaker 3: In the federal city. It's not like that when you

271
00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,559
Speaker 3: go into another state with an executive that actually is

272
00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:58,640
Speaker 3: the commander in chief of the National Guard. So here

273
00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:01,240
Speaker 3: we are the judge ruling here that the president's deployment

274
00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:05,040
Speaker 3: in La this is in June against the immigration crackdown,

275
00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:09,680
Speaker 3: violated federal law. With much to wonder about the way forward,

276
00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,360
Speaker 3: we assemble our political panel. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino

277
00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,600
Speaker 3: are both with US Bloomberg Politics contributors here on the

278
00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:18,440
Speaker 3: Tuesday edition. Rick is our Republican strategist and partner at

279
00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:21,760
Speaker 3: Stone Court Capital, Genie Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy

280
00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:25,480
Speaker 3: School's Ash Center, and Bloomberg Politics contributor. You know, one thing, Genie,

281
00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,560
Speaker 3: that Donald Trump has always said since he got back

282
00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:30,640
Speaker 3: in the White House is that he will comply with

283
00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:35,080
Speaker 3: court orders. Could this slow down the role of National

284
00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,800
Speaker 3: Guard troops, if not federal law enforcement in other parts

285
00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:39,200
Speaker 3: of the country.

286
00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:41,960
Speaker 9: You know, it absolutely could.

287
00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:44,520
Speaker 10: But I'll tell you I am doubtful that it is

288
00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:46,360
Speaker 10: going to slow down this administration.

289
00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:47,440
Speaker 9: And I'll tell you why.

290
00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:51,440
Speaker 10: Very much like his imposition of the tariffs, which is

291
00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:54,600
Speaker 10: something he has talked about almost his entire adult life.

292
00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:59,040
Speaker 10: He has been fixated on violence in Chicago for much

293
00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:00,120
Speaker 10: of his life.

294
00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:02,160
Speaker 9: He built the Trump Tower there.

295
00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:05,040
Speaker 10: He has talked about it since before he ran for

296
00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:06,520
Speaker 10: election the first.

297
00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:09,320
Speaker 9: Time, continued right through to the current moment.

298
00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:11,520
Speaker 10: I think as early as today if I'm reading my

299
00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,520
Speaker 10: truth social right. So I'm not sure this is going

300
00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:16,960
Speaker 10: to slow him down. The other thing is that we

301
00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:20,600
Speaker 10: also have a Supreme Court decision just earlier, a few

302
00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:24,360
Speaker 10: months ago, in which they said they won't allow federal

303
00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:28,440
Speaker 10: district court judges to impose nationwide injunctions, which raises the

304
00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:33,440
Speaker 10: question is Judge Briar's ruling just for his district or

305
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:36,800
Speaker 10: does it apply nationwide. So, as much as I would

306
00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:38,800
Speaker 10: like to think this may slow things down so we

307
00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,080
Speaker 10: could get a real decision on the Supreme Court, I'm

308
00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:43,440
Speaker 10: not sure it's going to slow down this administration.

309
00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:48,760
Speaker 8: Rick wayn here, do you agree with Jennie on that point.

310
00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:51,320
Speaker 7: Does this serve as some sort of deterrent when it

311
00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:54,280
Speaker 7: comes to other cities across the United States or at

312
00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:56,640
Speaker 7: the end of the day, could this simply be just

313
00:15:56,680 --> 00:16:00,280
Speaker 7: something that happens months after the actual action of putting

314
00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:01,520
Speaker 7: troops in those in those cities.

315
00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:02,160
Speaker 8: How do you view it?

316
00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:06,360
Speaker 11: Yeah, Critty, I think this is exactly what Trump is

317
00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:10,680
Speaker 11: looking for. He wants to test the legal boundaries of

318
00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:15,400
Speaker 11: a very powerful presidency, and he's done it in various ways,

319
00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:17,600
Speaker 11: and this is just one of the most current ways

320
00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,479
Speaker 11: that he has said, Sue me, I'm going to deploy

321
00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,640
Speaker 11: these troops. I'm going to stake out an emergency. I'm

322
00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:26,840
Speaker 11: going to take the powers that the Constitution gives me

323
00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:29,880
Speaker 11: and exert them, it would not surprise. And then, by

324
00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:31,920
Speaker 11: the way, take me to the Supreme Court, where he's

325
00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:32,920
Speaker 11: running a pretty good.

326
00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:34,000
Speaker 2: Track record right now.

327
00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:37,320
Speaker 11: And so I have no doubts that there are voices

328
00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:40,040
Speaker 11: inside the White House saying, great, this is exactly what

329
00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:42,520
Speaker 11: we planned. You know, we want to take this all

330
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:44,960
Speaker 11: the way to the Supreme Court if we are given

331
00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:48,240
Speaker 11: the authority by the Supreme Court to deploy National Guard

332
00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:51,800
Speaker 11: troops anywhere we want, for basically any reason we want.

333
00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:53,520
Speaker 2: This is what they're looking for.

334
00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:55,960
Speaker 11: They want that carte blanche, and they want it within

335
00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,360
Speaker 11: the first year of their presidency. So I think we

336
00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:01,240
Speaker 11: see this playing out exactly the way they wanted it.

337
00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,840
Speaker 3: Well, Donald Trump on truth social to your point, Genie

338
00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,159
Speaker 3: today this is just a couple of hours ago. At

339
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,120
Speaker 3: least fifty four people, he writes, were shot in Chicago.

340
00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,520
Speaker 3: Over the weekend, eight people were killed. The last two

341
00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:18,400
Speaker 3: weekends were similar. The president writes, Chicago is the worst

342
00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:23,240
Speaker 3: and most dangerous city in the world. And I'm looking

343
00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:26,320
Speaker 3: at a list of cities by homicide rate. The first

344
00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:28,400
Speaker 3: American city that appears on the list is, in fact,

345
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:32,399
Speaker 3: New Orleans, and that's at position twenty eight. It is

346
00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,399
Speaker 3: followed by Memphis and a few others here before you

347
00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:37,520
Speaker 3: get that far down the list, Genie, it's pretty much

348
00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:41,399
Speaker 3: all in Mexico or in Central America. The President doesn't

349
00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:44,040
Speaker 3: actually think Chicago's the most dangerous city in the world,

350
00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:44,840
Speaker 3: I presume.

351
00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,960
Speaker 10: Right, not if he is looking at the data. But

352
00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:51,119
Speaker 10: as we know, he is not fond of looking at data.

353
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:56,080
Speaker 10: He is fond of finding data or making.

354
00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,560
Speaker 9: Creating his own reality and talking about it.

355
00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,879
Speaker 10: And he very much beliefs that should though, is violent,

356
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:04,119
Speaker 10: and we should not underestimate the fact that fifty four

357
00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:07,840
Speaker 10: shootings over a weekend of Labor Day is stunning.

358
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:09,960
Speaker 9: It is violent. It needs to be addressed.

359
00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,360
Speaker 10: The problem here is, as this federal judge said, the

360
00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:17,960
Speaker 10: President doesn't have the power under the Committeetius Act to

361
00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:19,239
Speaker 10: do this.

362
00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:22,119
Speaker 9: It is an overreach of his power.

363
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,320
Speaker 10: He does not have the ability to set up a

364
00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:29,679
Speaker 10: nationwide police force as it is under his power.

365
00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:32,920
Speaker 9: And so that is the problem for Donald Trump.

366
00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:35,320
Speaker 10: Which is why I think last week, in that long

367
00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,600
Speaker 10: extended cabinet meeting that you sat through, Joe, he said,

368
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:40,760
Speaker 10: you know, I want to be invited in And of

369
00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:42,960
Speaker 10: course he's not going to be invited in either by

370
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:44,960
Speaker 10: Mayor Johnson or by the governor.

371
00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:47,040
Speaker 9: But it is very much in.

372
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:50,960
Speaker 10: Keeping to Rick's point with what the Republican administration here

373
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:55,520
Speaker 10: has been really wanting to do, not just to address crime,

374
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 10: which they think is a winning issue for them, but

375
00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:59,960
Speaker 10: immigration as well.

376
00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:03,160
Speaker 7: Jenny, for me state rights perspective, we know that the mayor

377
00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 7: of Chicago has been very vocal about just how welcome

378
00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,760
Speaker 7: those troops would be. What more can they do Chicago

379
00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 7: and other cities across the country, Well.

380
00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:15,880
Speaker 10: They are going to have to read carefully this federal

381
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,360
Speaker 10: judge's decision. I think, you know, if the President does

382
00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,679
Speaker 10: send troops in uninvited, they will take him to court

383
00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,840
Speaker 10: and follow that. We heard the mayor of Chicago say

384
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,679
Speaker 10: that his police force would not cooperate with law enforcement.

385
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:34,120
Speaker 10: There are other more moderate Democrats and Republicans saying maybe

386
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:36,119
Speaker 10: the governor and the mayor should try to work with

387
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:39,560
Speaker 10: the President to address crime, but I just don't see

388
00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:42,480
Speaker 10: that in the offing, in part because of the politics

389
00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 10: of this thing, because we know that Pritzker, just like Newsom,

390
00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:50,359
Speaker 10: has designs on the White House himself potentially, and so

391
00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:54,159
Speaker 10: this does give him a way to make a you know,

392
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:57,639
Speaker 10: in national forum for him to take his case to

393
00:19:57,720 --> 00:19:59,240
Speaker 10: Americans beyond Illinois.

394
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 3: Well, you know, Rick, you wonder if the President is

395
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:08,679
Speaker 3: going to need to rewrite the sort of baseline foundation,

396
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,879
Speaker 3: the real motivation for using these troops, not unlike the

397
00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:17,280
Speaker 3: ruling on tariffs. If he can rewrite the tariff emergency

398
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,400
Speaker 3: and create another reason to keep the tariffs in place,

399
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,960
Speaker 3: certainly he can find another reason to put National Guard

400
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:26,040
Speaker 3: troops in different cities in America. Correct, This is something

401
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 3: they've likely gained out at the White House already.

402
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 11: Now sure, at a minimum, they have already been saying

403
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,879
Speaker 11: that they're using the National Guard troops to support the

404
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 11: immigration plans, which means that you have federal troops supporting

405
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:44,560
Speaker 11: the function of a federal law enforcement officer, which actually

406
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:48,160
Speaker 11: gives him better standing, you know, within the legal system.

407
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:51,680
Speaker 11: They'll always be a reason for this administration to try

408
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 11: to do what they're going to do. They're extremely good

409
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,920
Speaker 11: at finding cause and effect. And even the president's comments

410
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:02,440
Speaker 11: on True Social this morning about these fifty four shootings,

411
00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 11: you don't have to be ranked number one. It's always

412
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:09,080
Speaker 11: an overgrass for him. But most people would look at

413
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 11: that and go, wow, that's a dangerous place of fifty

414
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 11: four people were shot at, you know, in Chicago this weekend,

415
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 11: And so he does play on the fears of people

416
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,879
Speaker 11: when they say these things, and of course then he

417
00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 11: always takes it a little bit too far. But the

418
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 11: reality is, I don't think he is going to suffer

419
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,639
Speaker 11: the desire to find a reason to do it.

420
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 2: He's just going to execute.

421
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 11: Upon the path that he even talked about doing during

422
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:36,920
Speaker 11: the campaign. He said he was going to put these

423
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 11: troops in these cities, and yet people voted for him. Now,

424
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:43,920
Speaker 11: when you look at the polls, you see that there's

425
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 11: a little support for putting National Guard troops in a

426
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:52,480
Speaker 11: law enforcement position in these cities. So I would say,

427
00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 11: the really only thing that can control this is the

428
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 11: bad political effect that may take place because of it.

429
00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 7: Rick ask you, maybe a very obvious question here, but

430
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:05,479
Speaker 7: are there any Republican cities that could be on the

431
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 7: radar of the Trump administration right now?

432
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:09,360
Speaker 11: Oh?

433
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 2: Well, there should be.

434
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,120
Speaker 11: In other words, if you're making the argument that these

435
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 11: are dangerous cities, I think three of the top five

436
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 11: are in red states as far as crime goes. And so,

437
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 11: but that's not what this is about. This is about politics.

438
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 11: It's got nothing to do with crime fighting. Donald Trump

439
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 11: isn't going to deploy National Guard troops in these states

440
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 11: without a close cooperation with the governor and probably more

441
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:37,160
Speaker 11: likely a border.

442
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 2: State dealing with border issues like he's done in the past.

443
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 11: So we pretend sometimes to say that these arguments that

444
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 11: are made in public policy realms are legitimate. This is

445
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 11: politics directing policy, not the other way around.

446
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, we've heard of a couple that they might be

447
00:22:55,440 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 3: looking at, including the aforementioned Memphis, and the administration has

448
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 3: suggested that, yes, it will be looking in those areas.

449
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 3: Question from a terminal user here, Janie, with regard to Chicago.

450
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:10,360
Speaker 3: He writes, we could hate Trump for going to Chicago,

451
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 3: but the city's been a mess for decades.

452
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 2: What is the counter from local officials?

453
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 10: I think that's a great question, And this is where

454
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 10: I mentioned before. You do have some voices on moderates

455
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 10: on both the Democratic and Republican side saying, hold on,

456
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:31,399
Speaker 10: let's work together. Why doesn't the governor invite the president in?

457
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,679
Speaker 9: But to be clear that he can't just come in without.

458
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 10: Being invited, and they have to have a plan as

459
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,159
Speaker 10: to what they're going to do to combat crime. You know,

460
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 10: hiring more police officers, better training, all the things that

461
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 10: we could do to address these issues. Because to the

462
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:54,440
Speaker 10: terminal user's point, Chicago has been violent, as have many

463
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 10: cities for a long time. The problem here is that Chicago,

464
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 10: if you're really looking at the data, is not nearly

465
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 10: the most violent city. And of course you just mentioned Memphis.

466
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 10: The Tennessee governor sent National Guard troops.

467
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 9: To Washington, d C.

468
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,439
Speaker 10: When two of his own cities are far more violent

469
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 10: than Washington, d C.

470
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 9: Why aren't those troops in his home cities.

471
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 10: So there's a lot of politicking here to Rick's point,

472
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,359
Speaker 10: and I think the danger for the Trump administration politically

473
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 10: is that polling wise, this is, at least at this point,

474
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 10: wildly unpopular. The American public, particularly independents, do not want

475
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 10: armed troops on the nation streets, but they do, to

476
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 10: the terminal user's point, want to combat crime, and we

477
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 10: should all want to do that. So hopefully there's a

478
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 10: way they can work together to make this happen.

479
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 3: Great conversation with Jeanie Shanzho and Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributors.

480
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 3: Thank you both for the insights. We will keep talking

481
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 3: about this. Something tells me in the future. I want

482
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 3: to mention a quick breaker here headline across the terminal.

483
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 3: A short time ago, we told you was coming. Joni

484
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 3: Ernst reports last week. Now Nate Official, the senator from Iowa,

485
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 3: says she will not seek reelection next year, and she's

486
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 3: up with a video post making that formal announcement.

487
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 2: Today.

488
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,920
Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg. Stay with us on Balance of Power.

489
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:16,679
Speaker 3: We'll have much more coming up after this.

490
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

491
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

492
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 1: Apple Coarckley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

493
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

494
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

495
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington.

496
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,879
Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg TV and Radio alongside Credie Gupta in

497
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 3: for Kaylee lines the next couple of weeks here in

498
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,880
Speaker 3: the nation's capital. Creedie just in from London with many

499
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 3: questions about the stories that are unfolding here. Someday I'm

500
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 3: going to have to ask you about what the conversations

501
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 3: have been like in London against the backdrop of all

502
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 3: the tariffs.

503
00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 2: Now we've got another court ruling that has brought us to.

504
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:01,439
Speaker 3: Another and fla election point, and the markets are clearly

505
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 3: not terribly happy. It's interesting you hear a ruling like that,

506
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:06,920
Speaker 3: you think it would be market positive because markets seem

507
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 3: to have an allergy to tariffs. But it's the uncertainty

508
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:10,919
Speaker 3: that seems to be dogging the stocks.

509
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:12,959
Speaker 7: It's the uncertainty even if it's a penalty, even if

510
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 7: it's a teriff. Just having a number attached to it

511
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 7: is a good thing. But you said, what's the thinking

512
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 7: in London? Well, I think the thinking is quite similar

513
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 7: to what it is here, which is what is a

514
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 7: thinking in Washington.

515
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 2: Just let us know when you know exactly, and yeah,

516
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:25,119
Speaker 2: will we know.

517
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 3: Well, there's another thing we don't know a lot about,

518
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 3: and that's whether they're going to come up with a

519
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 3: funding mechanism for the government after the end of this month.

520
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 3: If you ask Chris Murphy of Connecticut, you might wonder.

521
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 3: He's suggesting that Donald Trump wants to see a shutdown

522
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 3: and was on social media talking about this very thing.

523
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 3: You can see it on Blueberg TV and on YouTube.

524
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 3: Trump is rooting for a shutdown. He writes, he knows

525
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 3: he has created a huge problem because now any budget

526
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 3: deal with Republicans isn't worth the paper it's written on,

527
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:58,199
Speaker 3: referring presumably to recisions among other things, that have Democrats

528
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 3: and Republicans not exactly getting a way. Now we bring

529
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 3: all of this up because lawmakers are coming back into

530
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 3: town today. It's fly in day, and we wanted to

531
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 3: spend some time with Mick Mulvaney, who's with us in

532
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:13,640
Speaker 3: our Washington studio right now. Former Republican congressman, co founder

533
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 3: of the Freedom Caucus. Of course, former acting chief of

534
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:19,199
Speaker 3: staff in the first Trump administration. He ran omb and

535
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 3: has more titles than you could fit on the card.

536
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 3: It's great to have you back in studio with us, sir. Welcome, Welcome.

537
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 3: I guess summer's officially over. Now we get to real business,

538
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 3: is it. Does it go by Labor Day or do

539
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 3: we go buy the solstice?

540
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 2: I'm not sure.

541
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,919
Speaker 3: Well, I think Labor Day in Washington, yeah, right, but

542
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 3: that doesn't really matter.

543
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 2: I don't think September thirty is what matters. That's the

544
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 2: end of the year.

545
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 3: I'm I feel like it's up to me to start

546
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 3: challenging the conventional wisdom going this.

547
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 2: Many people say we're going to shut down. Doesn't that

548
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 2: mean we're not generally yes in this town?

549
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 12: And I actually did hear for the first time from

550
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,159
Speaker 12: a well placed Republican that they really don't want to

551
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 12: shut down and they don't think there's going to be one.

552
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 12: But I keep coming back again and again to a

553
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 12: couple things. Number one, exactly what Murphy said, which is

554
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 12: the the environment is really really nasty right now. What

555
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 12: was Chris really saying. Ignore the part about the president

556
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 12: doesn't follow the law, that's just politics. What he's saying is, Look,

557
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 12: we passed a spending bill on a bipartisan basis because

558
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 12: it takes sixty votes, and then you rescinded on partisan line.

559
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 12: So we agreed to spending together as two parties, and

560
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 12: then you rescinded that spending on partisan lines without any Democrats.

561
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 12: And that does sort of make a Democrat wonder why

562
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 12: would I ever vote for another spending bill again as

563
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 12: long as this president is around. And then you look

564
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 12: at something I'm a little bit familiar with, which is

565
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 12: executive authority goes up during a government shutdown, which is

566
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 12: technically lapse in funding, and the Office of Management and

567
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 12: Budget is actually heavily involved in determining who is essential

568
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 12: and non essential, a term we're familiar with now in

569
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 12: this time, right.

570
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 2: This is going to get interesting. Oh it is.

571
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 12: So you can imagine Russ vote. Who listen, I'm so

572
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 12: jealous of Russ. He's having a great time down there.

573
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 12: You're jealous. Absolutely, I would love to.

574
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 2: Be down there right now. This is fantastic.

575
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 12: He sort of gets to sit back and say, Okay, Greedy,

576
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 12: you're essential and we like what you're doing in the government.

577
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 2: Then Joe, you're not a same so goodbye.

578
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 12: So it's really sort of a way to run the

579
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 12: government without Congress's inputs.

580
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think they might want to shut down.

581
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 2: But wow, you're right.

582
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 12: When everybody in this town says X, it's usually a

583
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 12: good idea of why. And right now everybody's saying a shutdown.

584
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 2: Here's Walkers.

585
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 8: Is the plumbing a little bit of the shutdown?

586
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 2: Maybe, but it usually puts people to sleep.

587
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 7: I mean, I mean no, I'm coming in from London,

588
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 7: and the thought in London is, shouldn't tariffs have fixed

589
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 7: all the problems when it comes to the budget. Shouldn't

590
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 7: the math have have come and at least canceled out.

591
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 7: I'm going to cancel out the entire deficit issues, the

592
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 7: entire budget issues, but at least taking some of the

593
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 7: pressure off.

594
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 2: Is that any tonight? It was closely But.

595
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 8: Is it trumgress?

596
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 7: Even if it's an ounce of problem, even if it's

597
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 7: a drop in the budget, it's more money.

598
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 12: But I mean, look, I've heard Trump say it's seven

599
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 12: the tariffs have brought in seven trillion dollars.

600
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 2: No, it has it once?

601
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 12: One hundred fifteen billion dollars I think is the number

602
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 12: we spent that much during lunchtime tonight. So no, I

603
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 12: don't think tariffs. Tariffs would never designed they have. They

604
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 12: were never designed to plug a fiscal hole. Okay, it's

605
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 12: it's good money, it's additional money.

606
00:29:58,640 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 2: I get it.

607
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 12: You and I have talked before in the show about

608
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 12: how often we both thought inflation would go up.

609
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 2: It hasn't.

610
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 12: So look, it's hard to argue with the facts, and

611
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 12: they've not contributed to inflation, and they have generated more

612
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 12: government revenue period end of story. No real debate as

613
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 12: of right now. But it was never going to plug

614
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 12: the fiscal hole. To everybody Washington would go, oh, well,

615
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 12: it's great, we can start spending a bunch of money. Now,

616
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 12: by the way, they just spend money anyway.

617
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 2: They don't care.

618
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 12: About deficits, So whether that was plugged or not doesn't

619
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 12: really make any difference. It just goes to show you

620
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 12: the bitish you're asking about the wrong things.

621
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 3: Okay, well, let's ask about motivations here. Yeah, because it's

622
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 3: really interesting what you just mapped out. If you're at

623
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 3: the White House right now, you're saying, make my day right,

624
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 3: please shut down the government. We have a plan for that,

625
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 3: and I wish you luck reopening the government. We've had

626
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 3: Democrats say, yeah, we might vote for a shutdown, but

627
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 3: only if there's an off ramp.

628
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 2: There's no such thing with this White House, is there not?

629
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 2: If they keep there, their their keep in mind.

630
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 12: When we went through the shutdown in late twenty eighteen

631
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 12: into two thousand and nineteen, team we felt like we

632
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 12: were doing a good job of managing the lapse in appropriations.

633
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 2: That was the record is what.

634
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 12: HUT was the longest shutdown ever. And you know, I

635
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 12: think it's fair to say that. You know, when a

636
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 12: Republican is in charge of OMB, you can make a

637
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 12: shutdown look very different than when a Democrat is in

638
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 12: charge of OMB. The case in point, we kept the

639
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 12: monuments open on the National Mall. The Obama administration during

640
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 12: their shutdown, you know, put up the barriers instead of

641
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 12: you like it called Congress, right, So yeah, we do

642
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 12: feel like we're able to manage a lapse in appropriations.

643
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 12: The reason, the only reason that we didn't keep it

644
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 12: closed longer in twenty nineteen was because we didn't have

645
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 12: the support of the Republicans in the House. In the Senate,

646
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 12: Paul Ryan and mitche McConnell beating us up on us

647
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 12: every single day thing. We have to do something about

648
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 12: the shutdown. You're not going to get that out of

649
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 12: this Republican leadership. So yeah, my I think the more

650
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 12: recently question is if it does shut down, how does

651
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 12: it open?

652
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 2: And I don't know the answer to that question.

653
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 7: What would what would the Trump administration want though, What

654
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 7: is the what is the very what's the easiest thing

655
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 7: to fix to get that shut down off off the rate?

656
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 12: I don't know if they want one more recisions keep

657
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 12: it closed you know more. I mean, we saw one

658
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 12: of the most fascinating things that no one paid attention

659
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 12: to was this so called pocket recision. Just a couple

660
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 12: of days ago, it hasn't been done in a long time.

661
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 12: We tried to push it in twenty seventeen and eighteen

662
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 12: when I was at OMB. We couldn't get the White

663
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 12: House Counselor to go along with it. They've done it.

664
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 2: It's a fascinating tool.

665
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 12: Look, I think they want to spend less money, especially

666
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 12: in things like USCID.

667
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 2: They'd love to shut down those entire programs. Maybe that's

668
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 2: what would open it up.

669
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 12: But you tell me if a Democrat's going to vote

670
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 12: to reopen a shutdown government as part of a deal

671
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 12: to shut down a bunch of USAID programs permanently.

672
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 3: So the next recisions package or I guess the pocket recision,

673
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 3: that's a short thing, right. If we're daring you to

674
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 3: shut down, then let's keep clawing.

675
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 12: Back what we can. Is the mentality of the White House.

676
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 12: So the fact that the launchic is actually quite interesting.

677
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 12: You want to talk about getting into the plumbing an

678
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 12: ordinary recisions package, and I've got half a dozen enough,

679
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 12: and they got nowhere because what happens is they go

680
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 12: to the Hill and if Congress does nothing, then die

681
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 12: all right now, this time russ votes sent one down.

682
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 12: A couple of weeks back maybe a couple months in

683
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 12: now about nine point four billion dollars, and Congress did

684
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 12: act and gave it the thumbs up, and that recision

685
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 12: actually kicked in.

686
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 2: This pocket recision is different.

687
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 12: They've got some legal opinions that say, look, if we

688
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 12: send you a recision during the last forty five days

689
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 12: of the congressional year, of the fiscal year, if you

690
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:25,000
Speaker 12: do nothing Congress, the recision is valid. So Congress would

691
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 12: have to affirmatively act to undo the recision. So it

692
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:29,600
Speaker 12: sort of flips it on its head when it comes

693
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 12: to the last forty five days. It's similar in that

694
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 12: fashion to say a pocket veto. If this holds, it's

695
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 12: a tremendous tool because it wasn't means is that future

696
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 12: administrations in the last forty five days of their administration

697
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 12: can really claw back on spending unless Congress does something.

698
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 12: And as we all know in this town, Congress is

699
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 12: better at doing nothing than it is at doing something.

700
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 8: Is there a political cost to a government ship? What

701
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 8: does that look like?

702
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 2: Hardly ever, everybody says it costs people votes.

703
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 12: And I don't know if a single person ever changes

704
00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 12: a vote based on Maybe posters have got hard data.

705
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 2: I don't remember. I've been through. I don't know, Joe,

706
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:03,479
Speaker 2: how long have you been here?

707
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 12: Six shutdowns since twenty fifteen, I can't remember. That's our

708
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 12: measuring time now, and I cannot remember a single time in.

709
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 3: Wall Street feels the same way, doesn't it, Because when

710
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 3: you reopen the government, presumably someday everything goes right back.

711
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,399
Speaker 2: Everyone's made whole. Keep in mind, I thought what they miss.

712
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 12: The best GDP quarter that the Obama administration ever had

713
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 12: was the quarter that we had a big shutdown.

714
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:27,439
Speaker 2: Wow, so here we go.

715
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, another decisions package, another shutdown. Bring us inside the

716
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 3: runny by Russ vote when I grow up, bring us

717
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 3: inside the room. We could connect you guys for the

718
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 3: conversation with Donald Trump. On a day like this, when

719
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:44,840
Speaker 3: the court says, nope, tariffs are illegal and then says, actually,

720
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 3: some of these other things that you're doing, sending National

721
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 3: Guard into LA was also illegal. Does the President sit

722
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 3: back and say, okay, then make rewrite it so it's

723
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 3: not illegal, or does he does he take this as

724
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:56,240
Speaker 3: a defeat.

725
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,399
Speaker 12: No, he never takes it as a defeat. I thought

726
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 12: you were going to say, they say, let's challenge it

727
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:02,919
Speaker 12: at the next level. Okay, because he answered that question

728
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 12: is both, so yes to both. He goes to one

729
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 12: group and says, all right, so what's our argument at

730
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,279
Speaker 12: the appellate level, the next appellate level. I think the

731
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 12: tariffs just came out of the federal court here in

732
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 12: sec right, So that'll go to the Supreme Court and

733
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 12: get ready on that. But in case we lose, what's

734
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 12: our backup plan? So let's go back and find out

735
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:19,839
Speaker 12: our two thirty twos. What are the tools have we got?

736
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 12: This is one we're not familiar with, like a one

737
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:23,360
Speaker 12: to twenty two, which is a fifteen percent for one

738
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 12: hundred and fifty days or something like that. There's all

739
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 12: sorts of trade tools President has in addition to the

740
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,439
Speaker 12: ones under AEPA that just got shot down.

741
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 2: So you can do both.

742
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:35,240
Speaker 12: We're going to continue to push on the court decision

743
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 12: all the way up to the Supreme Court, and at

744
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:38,919
Speaker 12: the same time, if we lose, we're going to start

745
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 12: the process to see what we can do that can

746
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:42,799
Speaker 12: pass about judicial muster.

747
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 7: But in terms of getting some of that other alternative

748
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 7: sources of revenue we've already talked about in the past

749
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 7: couple of weeks. This idea of getting say fifteen percent

750
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 7: of revenue from corporations as one example.

751
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,919
Speaker 8: How serious is he about expanding that use?

752
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 2: Sadly, I think I think he's serious about it.

753
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 12: This whole government ownership of of of private companies, I

754
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 12: think is real, really really disappoints me.

755
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:06,839
Speaker 2: I'm not a big fan.

756
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 12: You look up the definition of socialism in the in

757
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 12: the dictionary, it says, you know, included government ownership of

758
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 12: the means of production, and we last time I checked,

759
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 12: we now own the means of producing some chips.

760
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 2: So I'm not excited about it.

761
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 12: I hope that there's somebody in the White House try

762
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 12: to make the president for the case that why this

763
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 12: has always always always been a bad idea, it never works.

764
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 12: But I'm not sure that that those voices are really

765
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 12: a center telling him.

766
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 2: In the White House that this is a good idea.

767
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 3: Would this have happened in the first administration and you

768
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 3: were criticizing Barack Obama for investing in government motors?

769
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:42,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, and maybe we were just too close to it

770
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 2: back then.

771
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 12: Maybe it's a period of time and how people have forgotten, Yeah,

772
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 12: that socialism is a bad thing. I have no idea,

773
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 12: do I think Peter Navarro is capable of making an

774
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 12: argument that you know, the government should own us STEELMA

775
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 12: should own GM, should own Intel.

776
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, he probably is. But I mean, face it, you can't.

777
00:36:58,239 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 12: As much as I beat up on Peter, and I'm

778
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:01,680
Speaker 12: happy to do it all day long if you want

779
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 12: me to, he can't be the only voice. There's got

780
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 12: to be other voices in there saying, you know, mister president,

781
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 12: I think that's.

782
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:08,240
Speaker 2: A really good idea.

783
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,919
Speaker 3: Even Howard Ludnik suggested Lockheed Martin might be a yeah,

784
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:12,400
Speaker 3: that's hard, you know, it's.

785
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:13,799
Speaker 2: Just why not, Hey, why not?

786
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 12: If if we own sleep, we own critical minerals. Now

787
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 12: we own a piece of you a steel, we own

788
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:19,800
Speaker 12: a piece of intel.

789
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 2: Why not? Why not? Why don't we own Boeing?

790
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:24,320
Speaker 12: It's if you once you, once you open this door,

791
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:26,359
Speaker 12: how do you how do you close it? And that's

792
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,759
Speaker 12: my question to my Republican friends, where's my camera over here?

793
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:33,760
Speaker 12: So when when we finally lose control and the Democrats

794
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:35,440
Speaker 12: are in charge, which has always happens to this country,

795
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:37,840
Speaker 12: pensulum swing back and forth, and they want to go

796
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:41,240
Speaker 12: out and buy every soul or energy. We thought lending

797
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 12: money to Solender was a really bad idea. How is

798
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 12: it going to be when we own Soleindra. I mean,

799
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 12: that's where that's where we are going.

800
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:48,359
Speaker 2: Now.

801
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 12: We're arguing about different not just even different levels of socialism.

802
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 12: It's what are we going to buy. If you're a Republican,

803
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,279
Speaker 12: you want to buy Luckheed, Martin and Intel. If you're

804
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 12: a Democrat you want to buy Solendra and whatever. I mean,

805
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 12: this is this is who's a better socialist, not you know,

806
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 12: not the different There's not much difference between the two

807
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 12: parties at that level. That's why I'm so disappointed about it.

808
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 3: This has happening to me more often creedy when people

809
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 3: in the studio are looking directly into the camera to

810
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 3: send a message directly to someone. Yes, that is the

811
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 3: President watching this thing now, because.

812
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 2: He's out there someplace in television land watching me.

813
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 3: He's been responding from time to time, which is why

814
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 3: I asked, but the president the president, Yeah, my brother

815
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 3: responds to me.

816
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 2: President, Oh, your brother, I thought you said your mother.

817
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 3: All right, we'll keep it all in the family here,

818
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 3: I guess with mcmafhaney's a huge Bloomberg guy.

819
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 2: Well, I love that. Thank you for being Do you.

820
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 12: Know that David Schweikert has a terminal in his office.

821
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:37,359
Speaker 12: He watches you, guys every single day.

822
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 2: He's got a terminal.

823
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:40,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, did you know that, producer James, This is wow.

824
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 3: How many members have Terman? I think he may be

825
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 3: the only wan. I hope I didn't. I hope I

826
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:46,760
Speaker 3: didn't get him in trouble. We bury the lead today.

827
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 3: This is good news. This is guys, have a direct

828
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 3: into the halls of power. The former congressman and former

829
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 3: acting chief of Staff at the White House. Thank you

830
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 3: for the insights as always, and don't be a stranger

831
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 3: with me here in Washington. Creedy Guto will meet you

832
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 3: for the late edition of Balance of If you're ready

833
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 3: to roll, We're ready to roll. Delighted to have you

834
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:04,839
Speaker 3: as part of the conversation. And by the way, that's

835
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 3: at five pm Eastern time. That'll be after the President's announcement,

836
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:10,879
Speaker 3: so we'll have a lot more to talk about right

837
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:15,880
Speaker 3: here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening

838
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 3: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe

839
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 3: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you

840
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 3: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every

841
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:28,360
Speaker 3: weekday from Washington, DC. At New Time, Eastern at Bloomberg

842
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:29,399
Speaker 3: dot Com.