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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podas all Right,

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Speaker 1: here we go fifteen cuny twenty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 1: forty twenty five, fifty.

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Speaker 2: And the Kickers block Book College Football World Standard.

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Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, he stumbled and football the lateral.

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Speaker 1: Turn, the counter on the inside.

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Speaker 3: Don't you believe I tap them off the field tonight?

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Speaker 3: It's not the side of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 3: It's the side of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 1: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 1: on Campus Podcast presented by bet MGM. This is the

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Speaker 1: Big twelve college football betting preview. I'm stucky and joining

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Speaker 1: me as always my BBOC co host Colin Wilson. The

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four college football season. We are back for

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Speaker 1: an eighth year. We were doing Degen and Juice episodes

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Speaker 1: back in twenty seventeen, so this is year number eight.

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Speaker 1: Feels good to be back. Excited to talk some Big

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Speaker 1: twelve ball wide open Big twelve which makes it a

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Speaker 1: bit more exciting. Colin, how goes it? And are you

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Speaker 1: excited to dive into all of these previews over the

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Speaker 1: next couple of weeks.

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Speaker 3: This is the baby, I mean, this is what I

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Speaker 3: guess is what I live for. This is what I

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Speaker 3: get up for you and I chopping it up and

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Speaker 3: being able to find winners. This is my happiest spot

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Speaker 3: in my entire professional career. And after three weeks of

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Speaker 3: travel stuck Vegas, Dallas, Indianapolis, I'm home this morning. I

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Speaker 3: feel like a Bucky's truck stop right now, which is

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Speaker 3: perfect because we're talking about the Big twelve.

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Speaker 1: T twelve is today's episode, obviously, but if you're wondering

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Speaker 1: about the schedule, I'll lay it out for you. This

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Speaker 1: week we'll have the Big twelve, the ACC and then

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Speaker 1: my beloved Mac and we'll add Notre Dame to that

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Speaker 1: ACC episode. And finally, the week of August twelfth, when

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Speaker 1: with the Big ten, the SEC East and West and

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Speaker 1: the AAC. And if that wasn't enough, we have another

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Speaker 1: citing announcement and for that we bring in actions audio

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Speaker 1: director Matt Mitchell. Matt, let's tell everybody the good news.

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Speaker 4: All right, thank you, Stucky. So the big news, as

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Speaker 4: many of you already know, the BBOC YouTube channel has

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Speaker 4: officially launched. Terribly exciting because in the seven years that

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Speaker 4: you and Colin and myself have been churning out these

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Speaker 4: college football episodes for Action Network. You guys are loyal

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Speaker 4: listeners have been asking us for a lot of things,

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Speaker 4: but mostly two main things.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you guys always ask for more college football stuff

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Speaker 1: and you want it released earlier. Well, you finally won

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Speaker 1: with the launch of our new Big Bets on Campus

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel.

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Speaker 3: You will now.

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Speaker 1: Get episodes earlier then they come out via audio, which

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Speaker 1: they still will, and we'll also have lots of other

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Speaker 1: content power rankings, transfer portal, exciting live content to come.

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Speaker 1: So you guys have won. You're going to get more

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Speaker 1: stuff and stuff earlier.

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Speaker 4: That's right, So even these conference preview episodes, they'll all

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Speaker 4: come out earlier than the audio version. But again, thank

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Speaker 4: you for listening to the podcast. Keep listening to the

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Speaker 4: podcast version now and always. But right now, the most

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Speaker 4: important thing is growing this new YouTube channel, so please

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Speaker 4: go and subscribe to that. It's very easy. You can

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Speaker 4: just follow the link in this episode description, or if

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Speaker 4: that's too big a pain in the ass, just go

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Speaker 4: to YouTube and type in BBOC betting channel and it'll

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Speaker 4: pop right up. This is the best thing you can

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Speaker 4: do for the show, and thank you so much for

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Speaker 4: being a loyal you'll see listener.

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Speaker 1: Shout out to everyone watching on YouTube. But let's get

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Speaker 1: into the Big Twelve. It's a really exciting conference this year,

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Speaker 1: and it's really the Big sixteen. There's sixteen teams in

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Speaker 1: the Big twelve. The four corner schools were added Utah, Arizona,

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Speaker 1: the four corners of Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, and Colorado.

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Speaker 1: A year after what we added Cincinnati BYU, Houston and UCF.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of change in the Big Twelve. And

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Speaker 1: of course Texas and Oklahoma are no longer around. A

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Speaker 1: lot of return in production, more than any other conference

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Speaker 1: in the Big twelve. So there's a lot of stability.

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Speaker 1: Only two new head coaches at Arizona and Houston. But

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Speaker 1: let's start at the top. And the way that I'm

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Speaker 1: going to group this it's I'm going to group the

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Speaker 1: teams in specific categories. We're going to start with the

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Speaker 1: first two, the two favorites. Who I group together is

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Speaker 1: your developmental teams. Right in the new age of college football,

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Speaker 1: with all the movement in the transfer portal, Utah and

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Speaker 1: Kansas State they have they're known for just getting players

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Speaker 1: and they don't have the They're not gonna have the

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Speaker 1: top recruiting classes. They're not gonna have the top transfer classes,

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Speaker 1: but they develop talent and you know, hold on to guys.

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Speaker 1: And they're the two favorites in this conference. The big

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Speaker 1: news is Utah. With Cam Rising now back healthy, Utah

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Speaker 1: just had horrendous injury luck last year. They're the favorites

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Speaker 1: to win this conference. I think the best price you

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Speaker 1: can find out there's plus three fifty Kansas State. They're

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Speaker 1: plus three point eighty. They'll have a new offensive coordinator

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Speaker 1: and a new quarterback in Avery Johnson. We saw last

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Speaker 1: year really exciting player, especially with his legs. Can he

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Speaker 1: take that next step with his arm will be the

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Speaker 1: big question. But let's start with your beloved ta Utes.

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Speaker 4: Did you say Ute.

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Speaker 1: Over nine and a half win total juice to the

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Speaker 1: over mentioned their injury luck last year, it was horrible.

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Speaker 1: I mean Rising, Bernard Koothi, Pittman. They're all back and

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Speaker 1: presumably healthy if Rising can stay healthy. I do think

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Speaker 1: that they are the deserved favorite in the Big twelve.

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Speaker 1: What say you on the Utes?

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Speaker 3: Absolutely believe in all of the hype that is surrounding Utah,

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Speaker 3: because you have to ask yourself, does returning production does transfer,

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Speaker 3: portal experience even matter with this team. We're coming off

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Speaker 3: the season with a pig farmer at a quarterback and

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Speaker 3: Sioni Vaki the defensive back was a lightning rod as

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Speaker 3: a running back. Now you're getting Cam Rising back twenty

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Speaker 3: two TV's a seven ie Tis from twenty twenty two

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Speaker 3: season before the injury happened in the Rose Bowl, and

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Speaker 3: you got to try to replace the Quinton Jackson who

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Speaker 3: took off to Arkansas, just a bruising running back that

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Speaker 3: had yards after contact. But Jalen Glover had one hundred

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Speaker 3: and twenty one carries last year. Rank Kuthy is back.

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Speaker 3: The biggest weapon for Rising is going to be a

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Speaker 3: tight end. And then Dorian Singer comes in from USC

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Speaker 3: massive twenty twenty two. He was also at Arizona hit

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, ninety eight targets, eleven hundred yards two

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Speaker 3: point two yards per route run just in an explosive

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Speaker 3: element that Utah really hasn't had. So I think the

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Speaker 3: one area that I'm focusing on Utah is blind side

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Speaker 3: tackle red shirt freshman Caleb Loomu. Keep an eye on him.

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Speaker 3: He's got to protect Cam Rising off his injury. So

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Speaker 3: I would that would make me a little nervous. And

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Speaker 3: then you know from the defensive side is just nasty.

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Speaker 3: Morgan Scalley's Nickeld is never going to change. The defensive

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Speaker 3: line is the best in the Big twelve Junior Tifuna

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Speaker 3: and Keano town Obasa. And then you look at cornerbacks

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Speaker 3: of Maya Vaughan thirteen PBUs over the last two seasons,

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Speaker 3: and he also defends the slot. The secondary is top

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Speaker 3: twenty five and on target allowed if you're unfamiliar with

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Speaker 3: that stat the does the offense, does the wide receiver?

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Speaker 3: Does the target get it cleanly? Utah's top twenty five?

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Speaker 3: There is no free path is in the air when

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Speaker 3: the Utah secondary is involved. I think one thing needs

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Speaker 3: to be discussed here and now, And I'm glad we're

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Speaker 3: leading off with this because I just came from the

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Speaker 3: Big ten and this name, this thing was being thrown

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Speaker 3: around and I can't even believe it's being talked about

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Speaker 3: roster load management. I'm like, what are we the NBA

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Speaker 3: now and why it applies to Utah? And the theory is,

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna make my conference championship game. That's going to

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Speaker 3: be my ticket to get into the college Football playoff

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Speaker 3: or I'm in this five way race to make it.

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Speaker 3: I already know my playoff bid is sealed, and I

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Speaker 3: could hurt my chances by going to the conference championship game,

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Speaker 3: and I'm going to play a little load management and

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Speaker 3: sit people. Now, why do I bring this up with Utah?

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Speaker 3: They go to the Bounce House in the last game

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Speaker 3: of the season, and if Utah has got it wrapped up,

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Speaker 3: say the Big twelve championship visit in Arlington, or maybe

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Speaker 3: their playoff standing is about sixth, why are you coming

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Speaker 3: to play UCF. So my favorite bet on these guys

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Speaker 3: is to make the playoff. You could win the conference championship.

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Speaker 3: You could lose respectfully in the conference championship, or there

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Speaker 3: could be a tiebreaker scenario like the Mountain West last

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Speaker 3: year when they had three teams could only take two

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Speaker 3: and had to use a freaking Harris poll in the

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Speaker 3: BCS poll determine who goes Utah. I think is a

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Speaker 3: much better bet, lower than what you said on the

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Speaker 3: number about plus two to sixty is still out there

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Speaker 3: on Utah to make the playoff. But to me, that's

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Speaker 3: better than taking a conference championship. Here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't see any value in taking them to

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Speaker 1: win the conference championship. There's just not Look, the one

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Speaker 1: thing that we're going to talk about after going through

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Speaker 1: these top two teams is this conference is wide open,

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Speaker 1: which means there's going to be a lot of games

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Speaker 1: that are within a touchdown spread. It's going to come

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Speaker 1: down to injury and turnover luck that'll swing a game

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Speaker 1: or two that'll probably determine who goes to the Big

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Speaker 1: Twelve Championship. I'm going to say now on a I'll

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Speaker 1: phrase this on a scale of one to ten, ten

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Speaker 1: being completely floored and one not being shocked at all.

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Speaker 1: On you know, right in the middle, or five so

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Speaker 1: like I'm maybe semi surprised, but not completely shocked, I

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Speaker 1: would say ten teams. If there's ten teams that made

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Speaker 1: the Big Twelve Championship, I'll list them. You tell me

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Speaker 1: if you would be shocked if any of them make it. Utah,

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Speaker 1: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Arizona, West, Virginia, Iowa State,

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech, TCU, UCF the two of them, who would

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Speaker 1: you be floored if if they made it?

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Speaker 3: TCU and probably Texas Tech. The rest of fair game, right,

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Speaker 3: the rest of fair game.

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Speaker 1: Do you have eight? I've ti I wouldn't be completely

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Speaker 1: shocked your Texas Tech made it, but that's how wide

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Speaker 1: opened this conference is, so I just have no interest

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Speaker 1: in taking the favorites for what it's worth. There are

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Speaker 1: the other concern I do have for Utah. It's just

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Speaker 1: because of what they lost is in the secondary, however.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they lost two first team All Pack twelve

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Speaker 1: safeties and they lost brought in at one of their

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Speaker 1: corner spots. But I'm a huge fan of Keenan Johnson

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Speaker 1: and they're going to move the other Johnson from nickel

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Speaker 1: to free safety. You can almost always just trust Kyle

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Speaker 1: and Scally with the secondary at Utah, Like it's just

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Speaker 1: one of those things that you can trust that they'll

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Speaker 1: figure it out. So they did lose a lot of

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Speaker 1: talent there, and you mentioned it, they're going to be

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Speaker 1: great in the trenches. As far as their schedule is concerned,

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Speaker 1: it's pretty manageable. They get three of the worst on

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Speaker 1: the road in Houston, Colorado and Arizona State. We know

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Speaker 1: about their great home field advantage. I mean you get

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Speaker 1: Arizona TCU.

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Speaker 3: Iowa State, No, Kansas State.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, No, Kansas State and BYU at home. They get

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Speaker 1: Baylor at home as well. That's actually a non conference game,

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Speaker 1: it was previously scheduled in There are other non conference

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Speaker 1: games Utah State in southern Utah. So look, there are

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Speaker 1: two hardest games on their schedule by far at Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: State and then you mentioned it at UCF in the finale.

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Speaker 1: But overall, it's close to just the nationally national average

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Speaker 1: strength of schedule. It's pretty manageable, and I think it

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Speaker 1: just comes down to Rising staying healthy. The rest of

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Speaker 1: the roster is pretty rock solid. And what does Utah

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Speaker 1: always do, like they just they exceed expectations. They squeeze

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Speaker 1: the most out of what they have. That's what they've

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Speaker 1: done perennially under Kyle Whittingham. But moving on to Kansas

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Speaker 1: State over nine and a half also, but this is

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Speaker 1: their juice to the under mentioned. I think the best

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Speaker 1: price out there is plus three point eighty on the

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Speaker 1: Wildcats to win the Big Twelve. There is some change here.

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Speaker 1: You know new quarterback Avery Johnson, who did see action

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Speaker 1: last year. Does he have the throwing acumen and the

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Speaker 1: accuracy to get through an entire schedule. We know he

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Speaker 1: can run, we know he's super talented, but is he

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Speaker 1: ready to take that next step? Will also be under

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Speaker 1: the guidance of a new offensive coordinator. You have their

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Speaker 1: offensive line coach Riley, who now will take over because

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Speaker 1: Colin Klein has departed. You know, they're getting to the

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Speaker 1: stud in the backfield. I am a bit worried about

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Speaker 1: the wide receiver room and the offensive line, which you

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Speaker 1: haven't said in a while with Kansas State, But I

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Speaker 1: do have some concerns there. The defense should be okay,

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Speaker 1: I still just I'm not in love with the defense,

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Speaker 1: so you know it's I like their safeties, but can

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Speaker 1: they get enough pressure? Is it something that I'm concerned about?

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Speaker 1: And over the last two years they're plus twenty three

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Speaker 1: in turnover margin? Is there some potential regression there? But

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Speaker 1: as I mentioned the offensive line, they lost four of

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Speaker 1: their top five offensive linemen, their top two receivers and

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Speaker 1: a stud tight end and Ben Sonatt who got drafted.

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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on the Wildcats? Do you have

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Speaker 1: some of the same concerns I do them. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: be a solid team. I just I'm not running to

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Speaker 1: the window to bet them. As essentially the co favorite

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Speaker 1: to win the Big Twelve.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I believe it or not. The defense is the

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Speaker 3: reason that the play that I made that is in

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Speaker 3: our Big twelve preview over at Action Network. You guys

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Speaker 3: go check it out. It was because of the defense.

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Speaker 3: And I have the same concerns as you. Now. I

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Speaker 3: think it's great that Matt Wells comes in as a

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Speaker 3: co offensive coordinator. He's been a great quarterback coach everywhere

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Speaker 3: that he's been Utah States, specifically for Jordan Love and

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Speaker 3: twenty eighteen just massive numbers, and Jordan Love fell off

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Speaker 3: a cliff in twenty nineteen, and so I think that's

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Speaker 3: great for Avery Johnson and then the backfield. DJ Giddons

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Speaker 3: and Dylan Edwards are going to run that Chris Cleman

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Speaker 3: two back set. I mean just all kinds of counter

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Speaker 3: and power and all over you. I think that's great.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Dylan Edwards came home. Him and Avery Johnson

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Speaker 3: were childhood friends from Mays and Derby. Those are little

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Speaker 3: suburbs around Wichita. He was homesick. That had nothing to

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Speaker 3: do with Colorado. So that from an offensive perspective, right there,

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Speaker 3: we're set at the backfield, We're set at the quarterback position.

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Speaker 3: Lots of questions with wide receiver, but the offensive line

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Speaker 3: returns less than fifty percent of snaps here. It's definitely

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Speaker 3: got my attention. It also two best.

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Speaker 1: I mean BB was the loudest, and but BB is

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Speaker 1: a huge loss.

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Speaker 3: I think BB was like all Big Twelve every single

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Speaker 3: year he was at Kansas State. So it's a big loss.

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Speaker 3: And you know, the secondary should be the best in

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Speaker 3: the Big Twelve. That is extremely important in this conference

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Speaker 3: when you have some pass happy teams coming against you.

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Speaker 3: Marcus Sigel Corner Jacob Parrish they combined for fourteen PBUs

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Speaker 3: they're both back, so I have the same concerns as you.

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Speaker 3: And the win total I projected at nine point three,

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Speaker 3: they're in contention. I think they're completely overpriced for the conference.

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Speaker 3: I give them a nine point two percent chance to

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Speaker 3: win the conference, which equals like plus nine to fifty,

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Speaker 3: not plus three seventy. So there's no value there for me.

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Speaker 3: I went to the Game of the Year market and

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Speaker 3: oh boy, is there a spot that's just right for

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Speaker 3: the taken. They go to Boulder off of a bye

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Speaker 3: week to face Deon Sanders, and the Buffaloes are gonna

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Speaker 3: have issues with their rush defense in the front seven.

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Speaker 3: Once again, they have a couple of good pass rushers,

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Speaker 3: they do not have any run defenders whatsoever. Kansas State

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Speaker 3: should have a field day with that. Now, conversely, what's

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Speaker 3: the entire Colorado offense? It's Shuder's arm. We just mentioned

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Speaker 3: Kansas State is projected to have the number one secondary

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Speaker 3: and the conference. That is really bad news. Plus, like

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Speaker 3: I said, Kansas State is fresh. I project the game

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Speaker 3: Kansas State minus eleven on the road a Boulder. I'm

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Speaker 3: taking game of the year minus six against Colorado is

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Speaker 3: my best bet on Kansas State.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's if you look at their schedule, I think

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Speaker 1: it broke right for them in certain aspects. I mean,

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Speaker 1: like if you look they do only have four Big

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Speaker 1: twelve home games. They also get Arizona at home, which

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Speaker 1: is the non conference game. There's two of those who

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Speaker 1: already talked about the other. But they get their road

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Speaker 1: game in league play byu Colorado off the bye West Virginia, Houston,

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Speaker 1: Iowa State. That's pretty favorable. They also avoid Utah UCF

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Speaker 1: Zona's non conference and the two toughest teams that they play,

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma State and Kansas will travel to Manhattan. So I

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Speaker 1: think that the schedule worked out for Kansas State. I

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Speaker 1: project them right around nine. No interest in the future,

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Speaker 1: and it's really I think that they're ceiling well, and

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Speaker 1: I do some I do have some about the special teams.

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Speaker 1: I'll mention a couple of special teams because special teams.

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Speaker 1: With how wide open and close these teams are, some

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Speaker 1: of these games might be determined. We saw some Big

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Speaker 1: twelve games last year blocked kicks that ended up deciding

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Speaker 1: those games that could end up deciding who goes to

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Speaker 1: the Big Twelve Championship and who doesn't. But Kansas State,

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Speaker 1: their ceiling, I think is going to come down to

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Speaker 1: Avery Johnson, does he stay healthy and how good and

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Speaker 1: consistent of a pastor Kenny b and does someone step

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Speaker 1: up as that true number one option at receiver. But

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Speaker 1: I think we're on the same page here that there's

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Speaker 1: just no real rush to get involved from a futurest

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Speaker 1: perspective to win this conference on either Kansas State or Utah.

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Speaker 1: You would agree, completely agree. All right, Well, let's move

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Speaker 1: on to the next group of teams. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: label them the returning producers, that is Oklahoma State and

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Speaker 1: Iowa State. If you look at any list of returning production,

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Speaker 1: you're going to see these teams at the top. People

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Speaker 1: calculate this different ways, and I have them both in

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Speaker 1: the top three nationally. Let's start with Brett's loved Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: State Cowboys plus eight point fifty to win the Big twelve.

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Speaker 1: I think the best price on their over the winter

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Speaker 1: over eight minus one thirty. They pretty much bring everybody back.

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Speaker 1: I mean their offensive line has two hundred and fifteen starts,

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Speaker 1: returning eight previous full time starters. Alan Bowman is back

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Speaker 1: for his seventh year at quarterback.

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Speaker 3: And a fantastic mustache. He's got the whole curly cue

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Speaker 3: thing going on the end to this year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Matching that with Gundy's looks is great. And then

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Speaker 1: Ali Gordon obviously back at running back, one of the

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Speaker 1: best in the country. Their wide receiver room is loaded

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Speaker 1: with experience with Presley and Owens. Don't forget about Stribbling too.

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Speaker 1: He's back from injury. He should provide a boost. Their

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Speaker 1: offense has a lot of potential. The defense is where

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Speaker 1: things get a little murky. Last year it was bad.

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Speaker 1: Uh Nardo now is thinking about he just running his

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Speaker 1: three three five. He's gonna go with more four man looks.

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Speaker 1: You should see Colin Oliver, who has some pass rushing

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Speaker 1: prowess play more d end this year, and they're gonna

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Speaker 1: switch up some of their looks. But look, they bring

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Speaker 1: back a lot of talent. I love their linebackers. They're

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Speaker 1: pretty strong up the middle. But there's still questions about

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Speaker 1: this defense. And you know, if you look last year, yes,

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Speaker 1: they won nine regular season games, but and and Gundhy,

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Speaker 1: look just went in doubt trust Gundy. Over the last

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Speaker 1: fifteen years, Oklahoma State's averaged nine point three wins, but

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Speaker 1: they definitely overperformed. You know, they I think that what

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Speaker 1: they probably should have won, Like they're probably like a

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Speaker 1: six or seven win team just by the metrics. But

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Speaker 1: and this is kind of similar to Iowa State. We're

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Speaker 1: going to we group these two teams together because they

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Speaker 1: bring a lot back. They're also very similar in that

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Speaker 1: they had slow starts. Iowa State had that, you know,

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Speaker 1: all the turmoil with the gambling scandal, and they lost

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Speaker 1: some games early, including one to Ohio. Then they found

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Speaker 1: their quarterback and they kind of took off from there.

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma State was horrendous early on in the season, you know,

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Speaker 1: losing the South Alabama. They were juggling quarterbacks, they weren't

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Speaker 1: getting the ball to Gordon enough. They finally settled on

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Speaker 1: Bowman and gave the ball to Gordon a ton and

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Speaker 1: they took off. So these two teams are very similar

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Speaker 1: in more than one way. But Oklahoma State, I think

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Speaker 1: for them to reach their potential, because I'm still not

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Speaker 1: fully sold on Bowman, like he's just okay, he's not gonna,

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Speaker 1: you know, go out there and dominate for a full

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Speaker 1: season throwing the ball. Well, you have to lean on Gordon.

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Speaker 1: You have some good receivers. You just got to cut

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Speaker 1: back on the mistakes. But for this team to reach

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Speaker 1: its ceiling, the defense has to get better. Do we

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Speaker 1: trust Nardo with all this experience and you know, making

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Speaker 1: some tweaks to get that defense to the level it

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Speaker 1: needs to be. From a schedule perspective, only four Big

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Speaker 1: Twelve home games, but it's a pretty manageable schedule. Their

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Speaker 1: last seven games are against arguably the bottom seven teams

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Speaker 1: in the Big Twelve. So they have a tough first five.

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Speaker 1: Your Hogs, they get them at home. You know, they

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Speaker 1: have South Dakota State, which isn't an easy game, no

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Speaker 1: class of the FCS to start. Then they're at Tulsa

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Speaker 1: It's kind of like a Trappie game because then they

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Speaker 1: have Utah and at Kansas State in games four and five.

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Speaker 1: That's their season as far as college will playoff Big

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Speaker 1: Twelve because then their final seven. As I said, arguably

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Speaker 1: you could say the bottom seven or eight teams in

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Speaker 1: the league. What are your thoughts on the popes?

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean scheduling perspective. You don't want this consecutive

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Speaker 3: games that I'm looking at on the schedule for your

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Speaker 3: trench Utah, Kansas State, West Virginia. Those are wars. Those

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Speaker 3: are three straight weeks of wars. Now, listen. I could

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Speaker 3: go on about stats and everything like I usually do

405
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Speaker 3: production Ollie Gordon sixty eight miss tackles three point seven

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Speaker 3: yards after contact, But.

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Speaker 1: I think the starters of the portal, which is pretty great.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean, they've got to go in and

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Speaker 3: slow water. But at the same time, I think there's

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Speaker 3: two stories that I took from Las Vegas at Media

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Speaker 3: Days that are actionable, and so I think I would

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Speaker 3: rather tell two quick stories about Oklahoma State than I

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Speaker 3: would talk about all the stats that they have, because

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Speaker 3: it completely matters. Now, last year we sat on this

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Speaker 3: podcast and talked about how they're going to change run

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Speaker 3: blocking schemes. Gundy told us they're going to go away

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Speaker 3: from zone read. They're going to go into more manpower

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Speaker 3: and counter. Well, if you notice Oklahoma State was terrible

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Speaker 3: to start the season, why Gundhy flat out told me

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Speaker 3: he's like, my offense was still running zone read. I

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Speaker 3: don't want zone read. I told them. After we took

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Speaker 3: consecutive losses to South Alabama and Iowa State, we went

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Speaker 3: into the bye week and I told the team that's it,

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Speaker 3: man power, counter, no more zone read. Then the season

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Speaker 3: just took off. Ollie Gordon became one of the biggest

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Speaker 3: running backs in the nation. I asked him media days,

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Speaker 3: what do you think about yourself in the game? He said,

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Speaker 3: He says, I think they got it pretty good. I said,

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Speaker 3: what did you run in your first play? He said,

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Speaker 3: outside zone? I said, didn't coach tell you to stop

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Speaker 3: running outside zone? And I got Ali to laugh on

432
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 3: a day that he was serving his punishment by talking

433
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 3: to the media. I think the point of that is

434
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 3: that Gundhy clearly had to interject in the middle of

435
00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,680
Speaker 3: the season to get the run schemes going. I think

436
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,359
Speaker 3: that applies to this season from the get go. So

437
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 3: those first couple games again, I mean South Dakota State,

438
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 3: their whole entire offense migrates, picks up from a coaching perspective,

439
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 3: and goes to Northwestern. But it's not like they're going

440
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 3: to stop. The Jacks are going to stop doing what

441
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 3: they do. Arkansas, we'll get to there. I think their

442
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 3: offensive line is going to have a field day with

443
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 3: Nardo's defensive line. But the other story that we need

444
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 3: to talk about, because props just hit the market, specifically

445
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 3: pass rush receiving props. I took Alan Bowman aside. I

446
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 3: had about a twenty minute conversation with him on the

447
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 3: field at Allegiant and we talked about everything from he

448
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 3: thinks his biggest game is Arkansas not Utah. We talked

449
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 3: about his how the knock on him at Texas Tech

450
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,159
Speaker 3: was the progression from his first to a second to

451
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,680
Speaker 3: his third wide receiver, and then his success rate takes

452
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 3: a huge dip when he goes to second and third.

453
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,120
Speaker 3: And he's like, yes, that's absolutely true. I'm a hot

454
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,399
Speaker 3: red quarterback. I leaned on it way too much, but

455
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 3: now I'm seventh year. I don't know how he got

456
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 3: his waiver in Talia, tack Oveh didn't. But he's in

457
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,439
Speaker 3: his seventh year and he's getting better about that. But

458
00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,360
Speaker 3: then he looks at me and he tells me specifically,

459
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 3: the great thing is having design Stribbling healthy because he

460
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 3: wasn't healthy last year. He didn't play much. Brennan Presley

461
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,919
Speaker 3: is going to get double teamed the entire season, and

462
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:13,439
Speaker 3: Design Stribbling is my hot route. I will let the

463
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 3: masses do what they want with that. Since Props just

464
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 3: hit the market on receiving yards for best in Big twelve.

465
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 3: So when I look at this team stuck, what does

466
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 3: Gundhy really care about? There is a narrative that he

467
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 3: doesn't care about non conference games, which is, I mean,

468
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 3: there's just a history of problems in non conference where

469
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 3: Gundhy kicks ass and takes names. Has always been on

470
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 3: the conference schedule. Texas Oklahoma doesn't matter that, I mean,

471
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,199
Speaker 3: they're not there anymore. His best games are against that.

472
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,439
Speaker 3: Utah comes to Stillwater on September twenty. First, they're on

473
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 3: back to back travel. The Pokes goot Kansas State. After that,

474
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,439
Speaker 3: we mentioned that's tough. West Virginia is tough. I project

475
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:49,439
Speaker 3: the win total at nine point one. But where you

476
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 3: need to bet is within the conference. They're gonna be

477
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 3: a TD favorite over Baylor, YU, Colorado, Arizona State, Texas Tech,

478
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:01,719
Speaker 3: and Yeah, West Virginia are shops, multiple shops out there

479
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 3: that have conference win totals. I project them at six

480
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,119
Speaker 3: point two. Conference wins number out there is five and

481
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 3: a half at plus money. It shouldn't be Gundy cares

482
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 3: most about that conference schedule. He's a heavy favorite, and

483
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 3: a ton of them over five and a half big

484
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 3: twelve wins for me.

485
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if they just true to

486
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 1: form dropped one of those games like South Dakota State,

487
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 1: Arkansas or Tulsa, and you know they've had many games

488
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 1: like that in the past. I will also mention my

489
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 1: second special teams mentioned. I'm Logan Ward. I think is

490
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 1: a new kicker because they lost Hail. It was pretty reliable.

491
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 1: That's something certainly worth watching.

492
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,880
Speaker 3: This podcast is presented by bet MGM.

493
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 2: Used bonus code action when signing up to get up

494
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,640
Speaker 2: to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your

495
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Speaker 2: first bet does not win. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

496
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:03,679
Speaker 2: New Jersey, North Carol lineup, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia,

497
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 2: and Wyoming. Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one

498
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 2: plus gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler.

499
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the cyclones of Iowa State. They

500
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 1: are eleven to one thinks the best you can find

501
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 1: out there to win the Big twelve over seven and

502
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 1: a half minus one oh five. Last year they finished

503
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 1: seven and five and lost the bowl game. We talked

504
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 1: about how they started off pretty poorly and then really

505
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: found their form as this season progressed. Rock O Beckt

506
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 1: and their new offensive coordinator last year, who's lost to

507
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 1: the NFL. They really unlocked the explosiveness of this offense,

508
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 1: and their offense took a really big jump last year.

509
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 1: New offensive coordinator. Now, you know, apparently it's going to

510
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 1: be a lot of the same in alse higher a

511
00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: lot of the same schemes and concepts. Will see if

512
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 1: if there's any step back from a play calling perspective.

513
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 1: You know, but this team is super young last year,

514
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 1: so if you want to make a bullish case for

515
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 1: Iowa State. They were one of the youngest teams in

516
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 1: FBS last year. They played the most freshmen of any

517
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 1: Power five team. Look at Beck, look at some of

518
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 1: their running back who showed a lot of promise down

519
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 1: the stretch. Even their tight end Brahmin, who I think

520
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 1: is going to be a really good player. So I

521
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 1: think what this team comes down to is two things.

522
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 1: Because I think the defense is going to be fine.

523
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 1: They do lose TJ Tampa, so their second cornerback spot.

524
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 1: He's just I love Tampa. He was an absolute stud

525
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 1: is sort of a question. But they bring back a

526
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 1: ton on defense. And one thing you know about this

527
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 1: defense is it's really always going to be pretty solid,

528
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 1: but especially when they have really good safeties. That's where

529
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:02,959
Speaker 1: everything starts from with this three to three five, and

530
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 1: they have really good safeties this year. So I think

531
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 1: the defense will be fine. They need to find a

532
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 1: way to just generate more pressure, which was a weak

533
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: spot last year. But I think this comes down to

534
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 1: the offensive line for Iowa State. Really it struggled last year,

535
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 1: but now much more experienced ninety career starts, and what

536
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 1: is going on in the one score games with Matt

537
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 1: Campbell three and thirteen over his last sixteen one score games,

538
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 1: one in six in games decided by four or less

539
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 1: in the past three years. Can they and what do

540
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 1: we just talk about in the Big twelve? There's going

541
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: to be a handful of close games with how close

542
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: you know the top seven, eight, nine teams are. Is

543
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 1: there a regression?

544
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 3: There? Is it?

545
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 1: Hartly on Campbell for why they're not winning some of

546
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 1: these games. But you would think with all of the

547
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 1: experience that's coming back, and it was young experience.

548
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 3: True freshman, not in red.

549
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that this team can take the next step.

550
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 1: That offensive line which you struggle. All five starters are back.

551
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on Iowa State? And are you

552
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 1: bullish or bearish?

553
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 3: I've been in the oven warming up on this team,

554
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 3: and I'm going to need you to stick at thermometer

555
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 3: in me and check my temperature because I am absolutely

556
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 3: one of percent in love with Iowa State. So Taylor

557
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 3: Mauser was the former tight end coach, and if Matt

558
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 3: Campbell's going to promote from within, it's going to be

559
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 3: his tight end coach is now the offensive line coach.

560
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 3: I stood up, I said, Matt Campbell's good to see

561
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 3: you a third year in a row. Usually I ask

562
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 3: you about your tight ends. But where in the hell

563
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 3: did this rock O Becked explosiveness come from. Iowa State

564
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 3: finished top fifteen in rush and pass EPA. You go

565
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 3: back to the brock Perty years. With all the weapons

566
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 3: that they had, they did not finish this high in EPA.

567
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 3: I don't think they ever cracked the top fifth. Because

568
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 3: Iowa State's a success rate offense. They're thirteen twelve thirteen.

569
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 3: Multiple tight ends move the chains, which is great for

570
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 3: Benjamin Brahmer, he listed sixty seven. I was told the

571
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 3: listing of his weight and height doesn't do him any

572
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 3: justice for how big this kid actually is. Twenty six

573
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 3: catches as a freshman, sixteen of them for first downs.

574
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 3: That is the key to the success rate. But the explosiveness,

575
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 3: holy cow, I've never seen this on an Iowa State offense.

576
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 3: Jalen Noel Jayden Higgins both average over two point six

577
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 3: yards per route run. I've never seen this on the

578
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 3: outside or in the slot for Iowa State.

579
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 1: When I asked from Army, I think is really yeah.

580
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 3: I asked Campbell on the side, I said, how in

581
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 3: the world did the Hunter Deckers scandal turn into rock

582
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 3: Obec being the most explosive quarterback in the conference. He

583
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 3: said it caught all of us on the coaching staff surprise,

584
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 3: and the only thing I can say is that his

585
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 3: high school tape was matched up thread for thread with

586
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 3: rock Perty That's the only thing we knew about I'm

587
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 3: coming in, he said. He comes from a great family,

588
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 3: great kid. The leadership in the locker room is unmatched.

589
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 3: And that was from a true freshman eighteen year old

590
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 3: last year. Safe to say, I am heavily in love

591
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 3: with an Iowa State team that has never won more

592
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 3: than nine games and their entire program history since eighteen

593
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 3: ninety five. Yes, I'm backing them from a defensive perspective,

594
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 3: ninth and on target allowed. That goes back to the

595
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 3: safeties that you talked about, right, you can't get a

596
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 3: ball into the numbers when you're passing against Iowa State.

597
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:28,720
Speaker 3: I think the good thing for the three three five

598
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:31,719
Speaker 3: stack that's called by John Heacock is that there's a

599
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 3: lot of depth that knows there's a lot of depth

600
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 3: at defensive end, and they are going to keep generating

601
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 3: havoc with a three man front, which allows you to

602
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 3: drop and play any kind of coverage you want, which

603
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 3: is what they always do. They do not fall for motion,

604
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 3: they do not fall for gimmicky offenses. When you look

605
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 3: at the schedule, they dodge Oklahoma State in league play,

606
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 3: they're a TD favorite and five conference games a coin

607
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 3: flip against West Virginia. Kansas is an Arrowhead That's not

608
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 3: a road game to me. That's a three hour trip

609
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 3: on I thirty five for for Iostate eight fans, who,

610
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 3: by the way, remember when they filled up a lot

611
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 3: they have more Iowa State fans there. They filled up

612
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 3: the entire stadium middlegioning it's UNLV a few years ago.

613
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 3: So you can't tell me they ain't going to fill

614
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 3: arrow Head up. So the Utah Salt Lake City is

615
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 3: definitely the toughest game. Absolutely should probably be choked up

616
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 3: as a loss. What a defensive under that's going to be.

617
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 3: This team ended with wins over Kansas and Texas at

618
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 3: the end of last season, and they were possession short

619
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 3: of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. That's how high they were

620
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:27,439
Speaker 3: peaking one of the highest experience marks in the nation.

621
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 3: Beck's explosiveness is better than anything that's ever been on

622
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 3: this Iowa State roster. My best bet from the article

623
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 3: that we put out on Big twelve preview was Iowa

624
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 3: State to make the Big twelve championship. That number was

625
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 3: listed at multiple books at plus four seventy five. We

626
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 3: can't put it in the app. We don't have the

627
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,360
Speaker 3: option the availability to put something like that in the app.

628
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 3: I absolutely love and endorse anything over ten to one.

629
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 3: I give Ioas State a nine point nine percent chance

630
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,399
Speaker 3: to win this conference. That comes to plus ninety ten.

631
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 3: That is your stopping ground for Iowa State. Anything above

632
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 3: that I fully endorse as a Matt Campbell backer here,

633
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:03,879
Speaker 3: we're going to get to ten wins.

634
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:07,840
Speaker 1: Baby, I agree. I'm on Iowa State.

635
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:08,760
Speaker 3: There.

636
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 1: I think where you have to look for a future

637
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:16,360
Speaker 1: in this conference because it's so wide open. Like I

638
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:18,640
Speaker 1: think you take as we talked about, You take Utah,

639
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 1: you take Kansas State, you throw them at YEP. There's

640
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 1: just no value there. Oklahoma State at you know, as

641
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:30,319
Speaker 1: the third favorite. I can't get there from a price perspective.

642
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 1: So then I think that you look at that next

643
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 1: tier right before you get to like Colorado, Baylor, Sincy,

644
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 1: Arizona State BYO Houston. You can make cases for any

645
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 1: of these teams. Some people will be high on some,

646
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 1: others will be high on others. Iowa State made the

647
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 1: final cut.

648
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:51,439
Speaker 3: For me, be mindful of playoff odd numbers, right, because

649
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 3: if you win the Big Twelve, you have an automatic

650
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:56,720
Speaker 3: entry into the quarterfinals. So if you're sitting around staring

651
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:58,400
Speaker 3: at a ten to one on Iowa State and you

652
00:35:58,400 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 3: see an eleven or twelve to want to make the

653
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 3: play off, it's the exact same bet.

654
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:06,320
Speaker 1: Yeah. The one thing I will say, not fully sold

655
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:09,760
Speaker 1: on the kicking game, but which could matter in close games.

656
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, let me say this about the luck of the

657
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:14,720
Speaker 3: one possession games, right, three and thirteen. We are now

658
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 3: entering Mike new Ball state territory where I believe he

659
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 3: was one in sixteen over a span of three years.

660
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:22,919
Speaker 3: And I think even you and I podcast had said

661
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 3: this has got to turn around at some point. I

662
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 3: think the fourth year of Mike new we finally got

663
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,279
Speaker 3: one position wins on the schedule. So you know, when

664
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 3: is it going to turn around? Matt Campbell, he'll get

665
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:35,800
Speaker 3: it figured out or not ever take another job anywhere

666
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:36,200
Speaker 3: else again.

667
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean actually yeah, five Big twelve home games

668
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:43,800
Speaker 1: plus the Kansas game, yes, which is neutral all things consider,

669
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:45,839
Speaker 1: it's a pretty manageable schedule. And I went back watch

670
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: some of these close games. I don't think it was

671
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 1: some you know, horrendous coaching by Campbell or some you

672
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:55,280
Speaker 1: know some some coaches I do believe are just really bad.

673
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:56,720
Speaker 3: James Franklin.

674
00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, block management, Mario Crystal, some of the decisions late

675
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 1: that'll cost some games. I don't think that's the case

676
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 1: with Campbell. So there definitely could be some positive regression

677
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 1: coming there. But I think all of these freshmen are

678
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 1: going to take the next step. I endorse that future

679
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 1: as well. Let's move on to Let's go with a

680
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 1: trio of teams that are in the mid tier. Let's

681
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,759
Speaker 1: start with Arizona. My beloved Arizona Wildcats from last year.

682
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:34,479
Speaker 3: No long monster gold down from us.

683
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 1: So this time the balls chose me. I backed them incessantly.

684
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:49,319
Speaker 1: They were in against the spread wagon. I love Jedfish No. Yeah,

685
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 1: the Feta was tremendous for me. As soon as he

686
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,359
Speaker 1: took off over a quarterback, didn't turn the ball over,

687
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 1: really smart with the ball. They're fourteen to one to

688
00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 1: win the Big twelve over under seven and a half,

689
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:07,399
Speaker 1: but they have a new staff Brennan comes over from

690
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 1: San Jose State. They have a new offensive coordinator, Dino Babers.

691
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:15,799
Speaker 1: So going from you know, pretty pure pro style maybe

692
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 1: to more spread concepts and a new DC internal hire

693
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 1: was an assistant who should be some of the same

694
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 1: a lot of the same principles. I am very sorry

695
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 1: that I have to admit this, but to all of

696
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 1: my Arizona fans who were just in my DMS all year,

697
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 1: I'm not as high on the Wildcats this year. I

698
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 1: actually like the under on their win total. Look, I

699
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 1: McMillan is awesome, but he even yeah he had a

700
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 1: procedure that he just had, I don't We'll see if

701
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,760
Speaker 1: he's fully healthy. He's one of the best wide receivers

702
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 1: in the country. But I think it's the staff change

703
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:06,240
Speaker 1: is huge. I cannot underestimate. I was, you know, watched

704
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 1: Arizona and so intently because I was always betting them.

705
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:17,320
Speaker 1: Jed Fish and that staff put Fefita in just unbelievable

706
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 1: positions and their scheme was incredible. But now with McMillan,

707
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 1: if he even if he is healthy, I don't think

708
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 1: that their other weapons are as good. Losing Coling, losing

709
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 1: their stud tight end McLaughlin. I think this is going

710
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 1: to have an impact on the offense. And then they

711
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 1: lost their best offensive lineman by far, so you know

712
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 1: they're left tackle replacing Morgan. That's not going to be easy.

713
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 1: We saw in the bowl game the drop off once

714
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:49,879
Speaker 1: Morgan was not out there. And then the defense. Look,

715
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:52,800
Speaker 1: the defense was great last year. It was one of

716
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 1: the most improved units in college football, but the year

717
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 1: before is one of the worst. I think there could

718
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 1: be some regression there. Defensive line, huge turnover. I'm getting

719
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 1: similar vibes to like it's not a complete parallel, but

720
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:15,719
Speaker 1: like Khalil Tate who had that huge, huge year and

721
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,800
Speaker 1: then someone came in there was all those high expectations

722
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 1: and then they went five and seven. So some similarities

723
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:28,960
Speaker 1: to twenty eighteen Arizona. The depth, especially at quarterback and

724
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:33,840
Speaker 1: offensive line is very questionable, and they have you know,

725
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 1: if you look at their schedule at Kansas State is

726
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 1: non a non conference game, so that's good and bad

727
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:42,280
Speaker 1: in some sense. They should start too and oh against

728
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:45,040
Speaker 1: New Mexico Northern Arizona, and they have tough They have

729
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 1: some tough road games in league play at Utah at BYU,

730
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:52,400
Speaker 1: who's off a bye that's not going to be easy.

731
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 1: Even though BYU was not some juggernaut this year at

732
00:40:55,719 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 1: UCF at TCU, so you know, there's obviously some winnable

733
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 1: games here on this schedule to get Colorado, Houston, Arizona State,

734
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:10,879
Speaker 1: Texas Tech at home, but I project them slightly under

735
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 1: seven wins. I think that they take a step back

736
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 1: this year. What are your thoughts in the Wildcats?

737
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 3: The road schedules not easy. You're going to go to Utah,

738
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:23,399
Speaker 3: You're going to go to the Bounce House. You're gonna

739
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 3: go to TCU, who's off of a bye week, and

740
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 3: you're right before the Territorial Cup and then oh yeah,

741
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 3: by the way, I know BYU is not supposed to

742
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 3: be pretty good, but you're going to go travel to

743
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 3: face them. They're going to be off of a bye,

744
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:35,720
Speaker 3: playing in one of the highest elevations in college football.

745
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 3: So the road schedule is unkind. But I think there

746
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:43,399
Speaker 3: needs to be two conversations about this team. One, Brent

747
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 3: Brennan is not a guy that turns programs around immediately.

748
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 3: At San Jose State, he had a years or a situation,

749
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 3: but he started three and twenty two in twenty twenty.

750
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 3: The light switch flipped on seven and one. You know,

751
00:41:57,560 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 3: there was a victory in twenty nineteen over Chad Morris

752
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:01,360
Speaker 3: in Arkansaw when they went on the road to Faetteville.

753
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:03,279
Speaker 3: So Brent Brennan could coach. He's always been able to

754
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 3: coach in game, but three and twenty two his first

755
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 3: couple of seasons, his first few seasons at San Jose State.

756
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 3: You know that that tells me that he's not going

757
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:14,280
Speaker 3: to be able to pick up what Jetfish left behind

758
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:18,320
Speaker 3: and immediately transform it into something bigger. Houston is a

759
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 3: different story. Willie Fritz has that history. Brent Brennan does not. Now,

760
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,879
Speaker 3: Dino Babers, Hey, I'm not going to completely pull these

761
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 3: guys off of their pro style offense and put them

762
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:30,880
Speaker 3: in my spread, is what he said. But what I

763
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:32,719
Speaker 3: have heard is that we're not going to run any

764
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 3: play action pass, which was the biggest thing for no

765
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 3: Fafida last year. It was a huge weapon for him,

766
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 3: and Dino doesn't get given.

767
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:43,359
Speaker 1: Three wide open passes plenty of times.

768
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 3: Right, And I think the argument you and I like,

769
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:49,920
Speaker 3: we battled on Noah Fafida a lot last year, and

770
00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:53,319
Speaker 3: I think I'll still stick firm in my stance that

771
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:55,359
Speaker 3: he has twenty five touchdowns but he only has nine

772
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:59,120
Speaker 3: big time throws. That tells me his weapons did all

773
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:01,439
Speaker 3: the work. Now, he didn't make mistakes, you're right, doesn't

774
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:04,840
Speaker 3: make mistakes. You can trust him, we can bet on them.

775
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 3: But his targets did all the work. When you look

776
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 3: at that TD at big time throw ratio. So the defense,

777
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 3: it's hilarious. The Duayna Quina is a defensive coordinator. This

778
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 3: guy started his career in nineteen eighty two at Hawaii.

779
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 3: He was the offensive coordinator at Arizona offensive coordinator in

780
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 3: nineteen ninety five, so that tells you near thirty years later,

781
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:26,720
Speaker 3: he's the defensive coordinator. So he's been there for fifteen years.

782
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 3: Not no change is really going on here. The defensive

783
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:32,760
Speaker 3: line rotation got completely wiped. It's now populated by Syracuse

784
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 3: and San Jose state transfers. That's probably not going to work.

785
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 3: But what is going to work is to Caario. Davis

786
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:40,319
Speaker 3: had fifteen forced in completions last year, which was the

787
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 3: ninth highest individually of all FBS safeties and corners for PFF.

788
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 3: But the schedule is pretty easy. When you look at

789
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 3: what's happening at home. You know, Arizona projects to be

790
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 3: a favorite, at least a small favorite and close and

791
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:58,719
Speaker 3: nine maybe ten games, depending on what power rating you're using.

792
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 3: The wind tow sits at eight, so that tells you

793
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,359
Speaker 3: being favorite ten ten games, but only a win total

794
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:06,319
Speaker 3: of eight tells you how close the schedule is going

795
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 3: to be in a lot of these games. But Kansas

796
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 3: State doesn't count towards the conference standing because that was

797
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:16,319
Speaker 3: scheduled before BYU Houston TCU. It's a great draw. I

798
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:18,720
Speaker 3: don't have any money down in Arizona, but my conference

799
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:21,239
Speaker 3: win total falls at six. Their conference win total in

800
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 3: the market is five and a half. If you're going

801
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 3: to bet Arizona, I like the conference win total to

802
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:28,919
Speaker 3: go over because you know Kansas State's a non con

803
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 3: that's not gonna you know that's not gonna win, so

804
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 3: I'll avoid the full win total. But then again, I'm

805
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 3: not backing an offense. You and I are smart about

806
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 3: our money. We're gonna invest in an offense. It's going

807
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 3: to change from pro style to spread when play action

808
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 3: was the biggest weapon for Fafita not going to touch

809
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 3: these guys. But if you do, I like the conference

810
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:46,440
Speaker 3: win total.

811
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 1: Over Yeah, No, I like the ender. I just think

812
00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 1: the staff. It's a big, big downgrade from what they

813
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:56,120
Speaker 1: had last year. I'm going to be on the under Sadly,

814
00:44:56,280 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 1: I'm sorry to all of my Arizona fense and friends.

815
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 1: It was a hell of a ride last year that

816
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 1: I'll never forget.

817
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:12,879
Speaker 3: John.

818
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 1: Let's move on to West Virginia, who also had a

819
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 1: pretty magical ride. They finished eight and four after Neil

820
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 1: Brown was written off by many, and then they won

821
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 1: their bowl game to get to nine wins. There is

822
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 1: some stability here. I think their top thirty in returning

823
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:41,920
Speaker 1: production overall. Although the defense has to replace a lot.

824
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:44,319
Speaker 1: Brought in a lot of transfers on the back end

825
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 1: to fix their past defense issues. That's going to be

826
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:49,319
Speaker 1: a key to their season. Does do some of these

827
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:53,880
Speaker 1: transfers on the back end hit and improve their past

828
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:57,799
Speaker 1: d Garrett Green back at quarterback with some really good

829
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 1: running backs and White and Donalds, and you know that

830
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:05,120
Speaker 1: this running game is going to be there. And look

831
00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:08,280
Speaker 1: they kind of leaned into green strengths.

832
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 3: Right.

833
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 1: He can run the ball. He would take some shots

834
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:15,680
Speaker 1: deep mixed in once the defense was coming up. He

835
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 1: does need to improve like the intermediary passing game. And

836
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 1: I think that's like, if you want to buy the

837
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 1: Bollish case for West Virginia, it's that Green takes the

838
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:26,759
Speaker 1: next step, Like all right, now everyone saw what West

839
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:28,839
Speaker 1: Virginia did. It's like, we want to pound you into

840
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 1: the ground and then take some deep shots where he

841
00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:33,839
Speaker 1: was effective, but in that intermediary range, can he take

842
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:36,400
Speaker 1: the next step and develop? Because he does get six

843
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 1: of his top seven wide receivers back to that brave

844
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:45,000
Speaker 1: from Oklahoma State. So the offense, you know, I've read

845
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 1: a lot about People are like, oh, the offensive line

846
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 1: is going to be fine, it's one of the best.

847
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 1: Last year it was one of the best. I don't

848
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 1: know if it's I think they're going to take a

849
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 1: slight step back. I mean, when you lose Frasier is

850
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 1: one of the best centers in college football to the

851
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:59,760
Speaker 1: NFL and then your stud right tackle a Nester. I think,

852
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 1: you know, it's probably still its top twenty five to

853
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 1: thirty offensive line, but I don't know if it's where

854
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:13,239
Speaker 1: it was last year. And last year, you know, their

855
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:16,799
Speaker 1: defense had holes and they were extremely lucky with injuries.

856
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:21,320
Speaker 1: They just had everyone play all their key players just

857
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:24,640
Speaker 1: didn't miss time. And they lost three starters to the

858
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:27,920
Speaker 1: NFL and three starters to the Portal. And if you

859
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:29,920
Speaker 1: look at who they brought in to replace those guys,

860
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:35,919
Speaker 1: it's just not up to par from a talent perspective. Additionally,

861
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 1: they have the hardest Big Twelve schedule, a top ten

862
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:44,279
Speaker 1: strength of schedule overall. Like, look at their schedule. The

863
00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:47,000
Speaker 1: only gimme the only game where you're like, I know

864
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 1: that West Virginia is going to win this game is Albany. Right,

865
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:55,360
Speaker 1: look at most the schedule, do you do you have

866
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 1: another game on there where you're like, I know that

867
00:47:58,200 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 1: they're going to win that game.

868
00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 3: My bet? So?

869
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 1: Uh which game?

870
00:48:02,640 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 3: It's a game of the year against Pittsburgh.

871
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 1: Okay, but but they're AT's at Pittsburgh in the backyard brawl.

872
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:08,759
Speaker 1: That's not like a game where you're like, all right,

873
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:10,280
Speaker 1: that's they're definitely gonna win.

874
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 3: Like you were talking about. That is at.

875
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:15,400
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh in a rivalry game is one of their Like

876
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:18,000
Speaker 1: it is a brutal schedule. They do get five Big

877
00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 1: Twelve home games, but they draw Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Arizona,

878
00:48:21,719 --> 00:48:25,839
Speaker 1: Iowa State. They only avoid Utah from the top. They

879
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:29,600
Speaker 1: also face like three straight teams off the bye late season,

880
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:33,840
Speaker 1: and you know, some of these games like this doesn't

881
00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:39,839
Speaker 1: work out for them at Sincy, at Arizona, at Texas Tech,

882
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:42,160
Speaker 1: like those are teams you'd probably rather have at home.

883
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 1: And you know you're hosting Kansas State Kansas. It's a really,

884
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:51,919
Speaker 1: really tough schedule. But it's gonna come down to Green.

885
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:55,960
Speaker 1: Can Green progress the passer? And then you know, can

886
00:48:56,200 --> 00:48:59,960
Speaker 1: their defensive backs can there the transfers hit. Losing Bush

887
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 1: Up is a big loss. They need some Northwestern transfers

888
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:07,960
Speaker 1: to really hit here. But when I you know, and

889
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:11,000
Speaker 1: actually I should say they lost. They lost six defenders

890
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:13,400
Speaker 1: to power four teams. Three of them were starters, so

891
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:16,040
Speaker 1: like there was a lot of talent and three to

892
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:19,319
Speaker 1: the NFL that left this defense. And you gotta remember

893
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:20,799
Speaker 1: this is a team that was picked last in the

894
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:23,719
Speaker 1: Big twelve last year and then they jumped up. Won

895
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 1: nine games, probably should have been six and six, right

896
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 1: if you like, here's three and one and one possession games.

897
00:49:33,760 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 1: They beat TCU by three because of two block field goals.

898
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:38,799
Speaker 1: They had a goal line stand to beat Sexas Tech.

899
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:42,880
Speaker 1: They had a last second touchdown to beat Baylor. Even

900
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:45,919
Speaker 1: games against pitt and UCF which weren't one possession those

901
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:50,200
Speaker 1: were like dead even statistically, and you know, djakovicill Plumbley

902
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 1: just turned the ball over a ton. They did lose

903
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:54,719
Speaker 1: on a hail Mary versus Houston, but they also had

904
00:49:54,719 --> 00:49:56,880
Speaker 1: like a miraculous play to take the lead late, so

905
00:49:57,520 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 1: you know, you could argue they you know, won like

906
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 1: five of the six coin flip games last year and

907
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:07,759
Speaker 1: should have been like six and six, so twenty to

908
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 1: one to win the big twelve total six and a

909
00:50:11,120 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 1: half seven. I kind of like the underyear. I think

910
00:50:14,680 --> 00:50:18,360
Speaker 1: that the hype has gone a little too far. Everyone

911
00:50:18,440 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 1: was selling West Virginia last year. Yes, they definitely exceeded expectations,

912
00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 1: but they were definitely fortunate as well. What are your

913
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:34,439
Speaker 1: thoughts on the Ears Almost Heaven, West Virginia, Blue Ridge.

914
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 3: Mountains Channing note on the scheduling that you went through

915
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 3: the November schedule, there's an aspect of it that people

916
00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:45,200
Speaker 3: need to realize. Cincinnati, Baylor, UCF are all off of

917
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 3: bye week. That is a brutal thing. In the month

918
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:49,400
Speaker 3: of November. I don't really pay much attention to September

919
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:51,840
Speaker 3: and October byes. But when you're getting fresh legs in

920
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:54,839
Speaker 3: the month of November or around Thanksgiving weekend, it's a

921
00:50:54,880 --> 00:50:58,399
Speaker 3: really big deal. Three byes by your opponents. That's that's

922
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:01,960
Speaker 3: bad news. Now, well, listen, everybody knows I ran with

923
00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:03,759
Speaker 3: the flag on this team last year, four and a

924
00:51:03,800 --> 00:51:06,319
Speaker 3: half win total. Hit it hit it, hit it hit.

925
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 3: I couldn't stop hitting this team because they had an

926
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:11,000
Speaker 3: identity on offense and Neil Brown was going to start

927
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:13,440
Speaker 3: a call on the plays. So congrats on what they did,

928
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 3: and we can say they're a six win team and

929
00:51:15,080 --> 00:51:17,879
Speaker 3: nine win team and how great they were. But Neil

930
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:20,000
Speaker 3: Brown got up on the podium in Vegas and said,

931
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:21,239
Speaker 3: you know, we're not going to be in the top

932
00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:23,359
Speaker 3: twenty five, and I don't know why nobody's talking about us,

933
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:25,880
Speaker 3: and that gives us motivation again, so we'll see how

934
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 3: much that motivation is. But really it's all about that

935
00:51:28,680 --> 00:51:32,800
Speaker 3: rush offense. You mentioned Fraser and Nestor Gone two huge pieces.

936
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:36,279
Speaker 3: Now from an experienced perspective, their offensive line got a

937
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:39,920
Speaker 3: major boost in snaps because of Xavier Bosley that came

938
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 3: in from Jacksonville State six foot five, three fifteen. He's

939
00:51:43,160 --> 00:51:46,440
Speaker 3: got the body he's got the grades, but what was

940
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:49,120
Speaker 3: that schedule for the game Cocks last year? So we'll see,

941
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:51,320
Speaker 3: you know, I mean it's different than Zach Fraser and

942
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:53,799
Speaker 3: Doug Nester, So we'll see if he can help out here.

943
00:51:54,160 --> 00:51:56,319
Speaker 3: Heavy sixty three percent rush rate, you know, it's going

944
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:58,840
Speaker 3: to be twelve personnel every three or four snaps and

945
00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:00,480
Speaker 3: they're just going to come right at you. Jaden break

946
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 3: comes in from Oklahoma State and that pumps the wide

947
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,919
Speaker 3: receiver to returning yards up to ninety percent. So there's

948
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 3: a lot of things I like about the offense. The identity,

949
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:09,960
Speaker 3: it's going to take advantage of certain teams. They can

950
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:13,160
Speaker 3: lean on it, and they got to find answers right

951
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:15,600
Speaker 3: away against the Penn State defense. Now, the back end

952
00:52:15,600 --> 00:52:18,440
Speaker 3: of the West Virginia defense is what really kept me

953
00:52:18,520 --> 00:52:21,000
Speaker 3: from dreaming that this isn't over. They one of the

954
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:23,279
Speaker 3: eight teams that really has a legitimate shot to win

955
00:52:23,320 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 3: this two portal players at corner. Lots of injuries at

956
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:28,719
Speaker 3: linebacker last year, so they're gonna have a lot of

957
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 3: older players at linebacker, but they didn't play because of injury.

958
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:35,120
Speaker 3: In the three three five Aiden Gardens transfers in he

959
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:37,320
Speaker 3: defended the slot really well. He had eight PBUs and

960
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:40,360
Speaker 3: forty targets, but it was at Duquane. How much do

961
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:42,840
Speaker 3: we take in their strength to schedule, But the defensive

962
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:44,680
Speaker 3: line is the strong point, so we'll see what they

963
00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 3: can do. Gardner web Transfer comes in. He had one

964
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:49,640
Speaker 3: hundred and seven pressures, but again it's Gardner Webb right.

965
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 3: Ty French comes in there, so we'll see what they

966
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 3: could do. Now, my best bet for West Virginia because

967
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:58,359
Speaker 3: my win totals at six and a half, and while

968
00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:00,319
Speaker 3: the number I think is where it should be, I

969
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 3: give him six point two percent chance to win the conference,

970
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 3: so that the odds and the conference are fine. I'm

971
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:08,439
Speaker 3: not going to touch it either. I think the x's

972
00:53:08,480 --> 00:53:12,440
Speaker 3: and o's against Pitt stuck out to me hardcore. And

973
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:15,360
Speaker 3: the reason is because I project the game at eleven

974
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 3: and the number is four and a half. In the market,

975
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:20,719
Speaker 3: Pitt in Ardoozy is going to potentially put in the

976
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:24,560
Speaker 3: worst front seven they have ever had. For an Ardozy.

977
00:53:24,600 --> 00:53:27,000
Speaker 3: It is projected to be bottom three in the ACC

978
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:29,800
Speaker 3: and that is saying something in a conference of seventeen teams.

979
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:32,800
Speaker 3: They lose a trio of experience on the defensive line.

980
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:34,320
Speaker 3: They project to be in the bottom half of the

981
00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:37,680
Speaker 3: acc which is very uncharacteristic, and West Virginia is going

982
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:40,840
Speaker 3: to line up and run it straight down their throat.

983
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 3: I like West Virginia minus four and a half I

984
00:53:42,800 --> 00:53:45,600
Speaker 3: make it eleven SP plus I think makes it eleven

985
00:53:45,640 --> 00:53:47,880
Speaker 3: point seven. I'm just looking at multiple power rates. The

986
00:53:47,960 --> 00:53:50,440
Speaker 3: number is wrong. I know it's backyard and it's always close,

987
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 3: but there's a major mismatch in the pit defensive line

988
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:55,080
Speaker 3: versus West Virginia's rush offense.

989
00:53:56,840 --> 00:54:00,440
Speaker 1: All right, let's head to Kansas. Really intriguing team this

990
00:54:00,480 --> 00:54:03,319
Speaker 1: year for a multitude of reasons, including the fact that

991
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:06,239
Speaker 1: they won't play home games on campus. They're going to

992
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:11,960
Speaker 1: play their conference home games in Arrowhead, and they're going

993
00:54:12,040 --> 00:54:16,640
Speaker 1: to play their non conference home games in like a MLS.

994
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:18,520
Speaker 3: Stadium Children's Park.

995
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:23,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, do you definitely have to It's definitely worth to

996
00:54:23,560 --> 00:54:26,160
Speaker 1: me at least a half point. I think depending on

997
00:54:26,200 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 1: who they play, it could be a little bit more so.

998
00:54:30,160 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 1: That certainly plays a role here. The offense should still

999
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:39,319
Speaker 1: be really good, assuming Jalen Daniels can stay healthy he

1000
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:42,040
Speaker 1: comes back. You have Devin Neil at running back, you

1001
00:54:42,080 --> 00:54:45,480
Speaker 1: have skill position talent all over. The offensive line did

1002
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:47,920
Speaker 1: lose two to the NFL. Brought in a couple of

1003
00:54:47,960 --> 00:54:49,640
Speaker 1: transfers who I like who might be able to fill

1004
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:53,479
Speaker 1: those spots at center and left tackle. Not really worried

1005
00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:57,239
Speaker 1: about the offense, although I do think that just from

1006
00:54:57,239 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 1: a play calling perspective, losing co Nickidd offensive coordinator, it's

1007
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:02,959
Speaker 1: gonna hurt. I think he's one of the best play

1008
00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:06,080
Speaker 1: callers in the country. They bring in Jeff Grimes. Some

1009
00:55:06,120 --> 00:55:10,839
Speaker 1: similarities there with like the motion the wide zone, so

1010
00:55:11,080 --> 00:55:15,160
Speaker 1: they have Philosophically, it's not a huge difference. They bring

1011
00:55:15,200 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 1: in Grimes as the co offensive coordinator, but I think

1012
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:21,640
Speaker 1: there's definitely going to be at least a drop off.

1013
00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:25,560
Speaker 1: The main question is the offense still should be really good.

1014
00:55:25,880 --> 00:55:28,640
Speaker 1: Just can Daniel stay healthy because there's no more Jason Bean.

1015
00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:33,680
Speaker 1: If he doesn't, then it gets pretty grim. Grim is

1016
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:37,800
Speaker 1: also one of their receivers no pun intended. But this

1017
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:44,319
Speaker 1: comes down to their defense. You know you can, I

1018
00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:49,360
Speaker 1: think rely on their secondary with Brianton Dotson at corner,

1019
00:55:49,480 --> 00:55:52,440
Speaker 1: one of the better corner duos in the Big twelve.

1020
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:56,239
Speaker 1: But it's a rebuilt front seven. I think they're going

1021
00:55:56,280 --> 00:56:02,920
Speaker 1: to struggle against the run again undersized overall all, what

1022
00:56:02,960 --> 00:56:05,080
Speaker 1: are your thoughts on it is a senior leaden team.

1023
00:56:05,320 --> 00:56:07,080
Speaker 1: You know, you have a quarterback with a ton of potential.

1024
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:08,520
Speaker 1: I think they might have like fifth They could have

1025
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:12,960
Speaker 1: like fourteen or fifteen senior starters. And just from a

1026
00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:19,359
Speaker 1: scheduling perspective, they do avoid UCF, Oklahoma State, Utah, Arizona,

1027
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:23,279
Speaker 1: which is a good thing. They do go two k

1028
00:56:23,560 --> 00:56:27,160
Speaker 1: State and host Iowa State. So overall, it's a pretty

1029
00:56:27,200 --> 00:56:31,200
Speaker 1: manageable schedule with five Big Twelve home games in quotes,

1030
00:56:31,280 --> 00:56:35,720
Speaker 1: but put an asterisk there because they're not true home games.

1031
00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:37,560
Speaker 1: But if you look at the just isolight the Big

1032
00:56:37,600 --> 00:56:42,799
Speaker 1: Twelve schedule, right, they start Lindenwood at Illinois UNLV and

1033
00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:47,280
Speaker 1: then of their nine Big Twelve games, they face seven

1034
00:56:47,360 --> 00:56:50,280
Speaker 1: of the bottom eight teams. So it's a pretty manageable schedule.

1035
00:56:50,320 --> 00:56:52,560
Speaker 1: But it comes down to Daniel's health. How much do

1036
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:55,880
Speaker 1: you think the drop off is without quotal Nikki and

1037
00:56:55,920 --> 00:57:00,880
Speaker 1: then this defense. The ceiling probably just isn't that high

1038
00:57:01,560 --> 00:57:04,960
Speaker 1: because it's hard to see this defense really holding up

1039
00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:07,480
Speaker 1: all season. What are your thoughts here?

1040
00:57:08,760 --> 00:57:12,200
Speaker 3: I laid an early season, I think March April ish

1041
00:57:12,320 --> 00:57:15,440
Speaker 3: I took over eight at some pretty good juice because

1042
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:18,280
Speaker 3: my win total came to nine with an amazing amount

1043
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 3: of returning from a tart perspective from transfer and returning experience.

1044
00:57:22,280 --> 00:57:25,240
Speaker 3: On the defense that came up to about ninety percent. Offense,

1045
00:57:25,480 --> 00:57:28,760
Speaker 3: very mid fbs at sixty percent. But because my projections

1046
00:57:28,760 --> 00:57:32,080
Speaker 3: were over and I thought it would steam, which I

1047
00:57:32,080 --> 00:57:33,520
Speaker 3: did a little bit on the juice, I was like,

1048
00:57:33,560 --> 00:57:35,920
Speaker 3: better get in on this eight. I got to media

1049
00:57:35,960 --> 00:57:39,440
Speaker 3: day in Las Vegas and I immediately started regretting the

1050
00:57:39,440 --> 00:57:42,120
Speaker 3: bet that I made on the Kansas Jayhawks. There are

1051
00:57:42,120 --> 00:57:45,560
Speaker 3: a number of things that are just flashing red flags everywhere.

1052
00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:48,600
Speaker 3: First off, yeah, Grimes is coming in for cotal Nikky,

1053
00:57:48,640 --> 00:57:50,800
Speaker 3: and you're right, there's prestap motion, there's some other things going,

1054
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:53,720
Speaker 3: but he is much more heavy usage and power run

1055
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:57,560
Speaker 3: between the tackles. And another thing is the tempo. I

1056
00:57:57,560 --> 00:57:59,960
Speaker 3: think if you're looking for week one totals or tote

1057
00:58:00,280 --> 00:58:02,960
Speaker 3: in the future market, there's going to be an up

1058
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:05,840
Speaker 3: tempo here. Cotyl Nikki was really slow. I mean they

1059
00:58:05,840 --> 00:58:08,840
Speaker 3: were I think thirty seconds per play. They weren't high whatsoever.

1060
00:58:09,440 --> 00:58:10,760
Speaker 3: And then you look at Grimes.

1061
00:58:11,000 --> 00:58:14,120
Speaker 1: Lindon would Week one. I'm not sure on the tempo

1062
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:16,000
Speaker 1: of Lindon would have to be honest.

1063
00:58:16,480 --> 00:58:19,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, Kansas last year one hundred and twelfth and tempo

1064
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:22,440
Speaker 3: at twenty nine point five seconds. Grimes of Baylor was

1065
00:58:22,640 --> 00:58:24,800
Speaker 3: twenty six point six. He was fifty nine. So there's

1066
00:58:24,840 --> 00:58:28,000
Speaker 3: going to be and Lance Leipold has mentioned we want

1067
00:58:28,000 --> 00:58:30,880
Speaker 3: to be more tempo, so look for totals to maybe

1068
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:33,920
Speaker 3: get even bigger in the Kansas. But the regret immediately

1069
00:58:34,000 --> 00:58:38,320
Speaker 3: came with two factors. One, Jalen Daniels was asked about

1070
00:58:38,360 --> 00:58:43,880
Speaker 3: his health on the side. Lance Leopold's direct response, he's okay.

1071
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:47,400
Speaker 3: Now I'm listening to Cam Rising is great. I'm listening

1072
00:58:47,400 --> 00:58:49,640
Speaker 3: to all these quarterbacks in college football clean bill of

1073
00:58:49,680 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 3: health even though they didn't play in spring. You get

1074
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:55,200
Speaker 3: to Lance Leipold, what do I hear? He's okay. That

1075
00:58:55,320 --> 00:58:57,920
Speaker 3: makes me extremely nervous. With Jason Bean in the NFL.

1076
00:58:58,040 --> 00:59:01,040
Speaker 3: The other thing that makes me extremely nervous, coach, You're

1077
00:59:01,040 --> 00:59:03,440
Speaker 3: going to be playing your home games in Arrowhead? Is

1078
00:59:03,480 --> 00:59:07,760
Speaker 3: there anything about wind stadium, preparation to drive, anything that

1079
00:59:07,840 --> 00:59:09,640
Speaker 3: really sticks out about what it's going to be for

1080
00:59:09,680 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 3: Kansas football. His answer, We're going to have to practice

1081
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:16,120
Speaker 3: a lot more on grass. You go and look practice

1082
00:59:16,120 --> 00:59:18,080
Speaker 3: facility at Kansas there's not a lot of grass to

1083
00:59:18,120 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 3: practice on. That makes me extremely nervous for these home

1084
00:59:21,880 --> 00:59:26,800
Speaker 3: conference games. I regret that over eight completely. I think

1085
00:59:27,400 --> 00:59:29,080
Speaker 3: I'm gonna stick to my win total. Say it goes

1086
00:59:29,080 --> 00:59:31,880
Speaker 3: over nine, could push it eight. I'm going to look

1087
00:59:31,920 --> 00:59:33,400
Speaker 3: for ways to get out of it this season. I

1088
00:59:33,400 --> 00:59:36,280
Speaker 3: think the best bet and you already mentioned it. What's

1089
00:59:36,320 --> 00:59:39,800
Speaker 3: the weakness of this team the defensive line. They're not

1090
00:59:39,800 --> 00:59:42,320
Speaker 3: gonna be able to defend the rush. What's one team

1091
00:59:42,320 --> 00:59:44,080
Speaker 3: that we know is going to be able to plow

1092
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:46,440
Speaker 3: over them with the rush because they do it every

1093
00:59:46,800 --> 00:59:50,400
Speaker 3: single year. That's Kansas State. Kansas State is minus six

1094
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:52,280
Speaker 3: and a half of the market in the Sunflower Showdown.

1095
00:59:53,360 --> 00:59:56,840
Speaker 3: What is that game usually because Climban has this, you

1096
00:59:56,880 --> 01:00:00,440
Speaker 3: go down Kansas State schedule when they're beating somebody, he

1097
01:00:00,680 --> 01:00:02,800
Speaker 3: beats the living shit out of teams by thirty and

1098
01:00:02,880 --> 01:00:06,960
Speaker 3: forty points. And this game is especially no exception. So

1099
01:00:07,040 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 3: give me the Wildcats under a touchdown game of the

1100
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:10,200
Speaker 3: year of minus six and a half against.

1101
01:00:10,000 --> 01:00:14,120
Speaker 1: Kansas Yeah, that's I looked at that as well. It's like,

1102
01:00:14,160 --> 01:00:17,800
Speaker 1: all right, what teams would you be worried about from

1103
01:00:17,840 --> 01:00:22,120
Speaker 1: a rushing perspective? Illinois, right, like going to Illinois. You

1104
01:00:22,120 --> 01:00:24,920
Speaker 1: know what Illinois is going to try to do, Arizona State.

1105
01:00:25,040 --> 01:00:26,560
Speaker 1: You know what they're probably going to try to do

1106
01:00:26,600 --> 01:00:29,920
Speaker 1: with Scattabio West Virginia. Oh, you know what they're going

1107
01:00:30,000 --> 01:00:30,520
Speaker 1: to try.

1108
01:00:30,320 --> 01:00:33,840
Speaker 3: To do Houston with Donovan Smith in the triple in

1109
01:00:33,840 --> 01:00:34,880
Speaker 3: space that he runs.

1110
01:00:34,640 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 1: From Tulane YEP. So there's some teams that definitely can

1111
01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:43,320
Speaker 1: take advantage of that weakness. On Kansas. I'm close to market,

1112
01:00:44,640 --> 01:00:48,160
Speaker 1: but if I had to bet it, I'd probably go under,

1113
01:00:48,480 --> 01:00:50,640
Speaker 1: but more on the gut because my number is pretty close.

1114
01:00:50,920 --> 01:00:54,200
Speaker 3: But you can't project Jayalen Daniel's health. Eighteen games in

1115
01:00:54,240 --> 01:00:57,240
Speaker 3: the last three years, that's an average of six. How

1116
01:00:57,240 --> 01:00:59,000
Speaker 3: many times are you and I sitting around on Saturday

1117
01:00:59,000 --> 01:01:02,560
Speaker 3: morning texting and checking Twitter for people that are actually

1118
01:01:02,640 --> 01:01:04,280
Speaker 3: at the field and Lawrence looking to see if Jaalen

1119
01:01:04,320 --> 01:01:06,400
Speaker 3: Daniel's even taking a snap and we can't even get

1120
01:01:06,400 --> 01:01:09,040
Speaker 3: any clear information out of our channels that we have

1121
01:01:09,120 --> 01:01:11,680
Speaker 3: into Lawrence. I'm right now regretting the eighth that I

1122
01:01:11,720 --> 01:01:13,760
Speaker 3: put in, But you know, we're gonna roll.

1123
01:01:15,520 --> 01:01:19,360
Speaker 1: All right, Let's move on to another trio of teams.

1124
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:23,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna call these guys. Let's call them the Transfer

1125
01:01:24,000 --> 01:01:29,400
Speaker 1: Reliance UCF Texas Tech Colorado. I think for them to

1126
01:01:29,560 --> 01:01:33,000
Speaker 1: hit their full potential, these are teams that at least

1127
01:01:33,040 --> 01:01:36,480
Speaker 1: in on one side of the ball, sometimes both, they're

1128
01:01:36,520 --> 01:01:38,480
Speaker 1: going to need transfers to hit. Let's start with your

1129
01:01:38,520 --> 01:01:43,680
Speaker 1: beloved UCF Knights plus nine point fifty to win the

1130
01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:47,760
Speaker 1: Big twelve over seven and a half minus one oh five,

1131
01:01:47,800 --> 01:01:51,640
Speaker 1: I think is the best out there. The I think

1132
01:01:51,680 --> 01:01:54,240
Speaker 1: the key to this team right on both sides. Well,

1133
01:01:54,280 --> 01:01:58,400
Speaker 1: you bring in kJ Jefferson to be the quarterback, and

1134
01:01:58,440 --> 01:02:02,560
Speaker 1: I think that he's probably a better version of Plumb.

1135
01:02:02,680 --> 01:02:04,760
Speaker 1: He's not as fast, but he's just a better passer

1136
01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:08,360
Speaker 1: when he's healthy. But he can also run and run

1137
01:02:08,400 --> 01:02:11,360
Speaker 1: that Gus smells on offense. So how much of an

1138
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:15,400
Speaker 1: upgrade is he the defense? So that's a big transfer

1139
01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:17,600
Speaker 1: that comes in I think is a positive. The defense

1140
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:19,919
Speaker 1: is more of an unknown. They bring in seven Power

1141
01:02:20,040 --> 01:02:23,880
Speaker 1: five transfers on that defense. They also bring in defensive

1142
01:02:23,920 --> 01:02:27,000
Speaker 1: coordinator Ted Rufe. You know, I don't love the higher

1143
01:02:27,240 --> 01:02:31,160
Speaker 1: but his specialty is Rundy, which is one of the

1144
01:02:31,160 --> 01:02:34,160
Speaker 1: things that UCF really needed to fix and address. They

1145
01:02:34,160 --> 01:02:38,240
Speaker 1: were just horrific trying to defend the run last year,

1146
01:02:38,720 --> 01:02:42,000
Speaker 1: so they really could use a bump there, and they had.

1147
01:02:42,240 --> 01:02:45,240
Speaker 1: Look if you look at the team's UCF BYU Sincy

1148
01:02:45,320 --> 01:02:50,160
Speaker 1: Houston that made the transition before last year, UCF by

1149
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:54,280
Speaker 1: far made the smoothest transition, and they are now in

1150
01:02:54,320 --> 01:02:57,640
Speaker 1: the mix BYU Sincy Houston. Still I don't think are

1151
01:02:57,720 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 1: ready and are still trying to figure it out. Look

1152
01:03:01,640 --> 01:03:04,760
Speaker 1: no further than the recruiting and the transfer classes that

1153
01:03:05,400 --> 01:03:09,480
Speaker 1: Malson brought in, you know, both top twenty five. So

1154
01:03:10,480 --> 01:03:11,920
Speaker 1: and if you look, you might say, oh, they went

1155
01:03:11,960 --> 01:03:14,320
Speaker 1: six and six last year then lost a Bowl to

1156
01:03:14,360 --> 01:03:18,360
Speaker 1: go to six and seven. They lost all of their

1157
01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:22,920
Speaker 1: coin flips. They lost three games by a combined four points.

1158
01:03:23,200 --> 01:03:25,240
Speaker 1: They blew that. I don't know how they blew that

1159
01:03:25,320 --> 01:03:28,640
Speaker 1: lead to Baylor. They had a two point conversion against Oklahoma,

1160
01:03:30,440 --> 01:03:32,720
Speaker 1: but they had the block extra point against Texas Tech.

1161
01:03:32,880 --> 01:03:35,320
Speaker 1: Like this team easily could have won nine games last year,

1162
01:03:35,800 --> 01:03:39,880
Speaker 1: So that six and six regular season record a bit misleading.

1163
01:03:40,880 --> 01:03:44,080
Speaker 1: So I think what this comes down to is their

1164
01:03:44,200 --> 01:03:48,600
Speaker 1: transfer heavy defense. Can they see some improvements there? If

1165
01:03:48,640 --> 01:03:54,440
Speaker 1: they can, they're definitely a viable sleeper in the Big Twelve.

1166
01:03:54,440 --> 01:03:56,880
Speaker 1: If you look at their schedule, they get five Big

1167
01:03:56,880 --> 01:03:59,080
Speaker 1: Twelve home games. That's important. So at thirty nine and

1168
01:03:59,200 --> 01:04:02,440
Speaker 1: five over the past seven years at home. They do

1169
01:04:02,560 --> 01:04:05,960
Speaker 1: host Utah in the finale, that could potentially be very

1170
01:04:06,000 --> 01:04:09,160
Speaker 1: meaningful in the Big twelve race. They do have some

1171
01:04:09,200 --> 01:04:12,480
Speaker 1: tricky road games. You know at TCU early won't be

1172
01:04:12,560 --> 01:04:15,280
Speaker 1: easy at Florida, who's off the bye.

1173
01:04:15,520 --> 01:04:17,120
Speaker 3: Cincinnati is a terrible spot.

1174
01:04:17,520 --> 01:04:20,600
Speaker 1: Yep, Cincinnati, little sandwich spot there.

1175
01:04:21,000 --> 01:04:23,680
Speaker 3: Sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches.

1176
01:04:24,360 --> 01:04:27,920
Speaker 1: You head out west to face Arizona State. But overall

1177
01:04:27,960 --> 01:04:32,480
Speaker 1: it's not an overly imposing schedule because you avoid Kansas State,

1178
01:04:32,480 --> 01:04:35,160
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, Kansas, and you face six of the bottom

1179
01:04:35,240 --> 01:04:38,920
Speaker 1: eight teams, and you get to face Utah at home

1180
01:04:39,160 --> 01:04:42,520
Speaker 1: in the bounce house. What are your thoughts on your

1181
01:04:42,920 --> 01:04:45,680
Speaker 1: beloved nights? What is this team ceiling?

1182
01:04:47,560 --> 01:04:49,800
Speaker 3: Well, I think I'll work my way backwards from schedule

1183
01:04:49,840 --> 01:04:54,320
Speaker 3: to defense to offense, because we'll talk about ceiling here.

1184
01:04:54,800 --> 01:04:57,800
Speaker 3: I mean from a scheduling perspective. Look, Florida comes off

1185
01:04:57,840 --> 01:05:00,200
Speaker 3: a bye. UCF is going to go to Gainesville. This

1186
01:05:00,240 --> 01:05:03,040
Speaker 3: is a game that has been much wanted in the

1187
01:05:03,080 --> 01:05:04,840
Speaker 3: state of Florida. These are two teams that are going

1188
01:05:04,840 --> 01:05:07,800
Speaker 3: in opposite directions as far as recruiting, as far as

1189
01:05:07,840 --> 01:05:10,920
Speaker 3: transfer portal, as far as coaches go. It's amazing what

1190
01:05:11,000 --> 01:05:12,560
Speaker 3: UCF has been able to do in the state of

1191
01:05:12,560 --> 01:05:15,800
Speaker 3: Florida with a tenth of the resources of what Miami has.

1192
01:05:16,320 --> 01:05:18,680
Speaker 3: I would say, in five years, you're not going to

1193
01:05:18,680 --> 01:05:20,160
Speaker 3: see much of the difference. It's not going to be

1194
01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:21,960
Speaker 3: o UCF the group of five team. They're going to

1195
01:05:21,960 --> 01:05:23,360
Speaker 3: be just up there with the rest of them, especially

1196
01:05:23,400 --> 01:05:26,240
Speaker 3: since their admissions are easier than any other college in

1197
01:05:26,280 --> 01:05:29,440
Speaker 3: the state. So you know, from a from a scheduling perspective,

1198
01:05:30,640 --> 01:05:32,600
Speaker 3: you know, I talked about the Utah load management that

1199
01:05:32,600 --> 01:05:35,320
Speaker 3: could be a factor there at the end since he

1200
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:37,600
Speaker 3: comes off of a buy to face UCF off that

1201
01:05:37,640 --> 01:05:40,040
Speaker 3: game with the Gators, what a tremendous spot, so that

1202
01:05:40,080 --> 01:05:43,520
Speaker 3: that's something they're going to have to get over, you know.

1203
01:05:43,600 --> 01:05:46,640
Speaker 3: So from a win total perspective, I actually made this

1204
01:05:46,720 --> 01:05:49,640
Speaker 3: six point nine, so you would think this isn't a

1205
01:05:49,680 --> 01:05:51,400
Speaker 3: team that you would pay attention to to actually do

1206
01:05:51,440 --> 01:05:54,880
Speaker 3: any damage in the conference. But u CF has something

1207
01:05:54,920 --> 01:05:57,840
Speaker 3: going on defense that not a lot of other teams have.

1208
01:05:58,520 --> 01:06:02,919
Speaker 3: They have a ton of defense interior talent. Ricky Barber

1209
01:06:02,960 --> 01:06:05,280
Speaker 3: and Lee Hunter are back on the defensive line. Barbara

1210
01:06:05,280 --> 01:06:07,560
Speaker 3: had thirty nine pressures in twenty twenty two. Hunter had

1211
01:06:07,600 --> 01:06:11,280
Speaker 3: forty one stops last year. That is tremendous from the

1212
01:06:11,280 --> 01:06:14,600
Speaker 3: defensive interior. The rest of the college football world hit

1213
01:06:14,640 --> 01:06:18,520
Speaker 3: the transfer portal dying for defensive interior help. UCF already

1214
01:06:18,560 --> 01:06:21,400
Speaker 3: has it. Now, you're right about Ted Roof. That OU

1215
01:06:21,440 --> 01:06:25,000
Speaker 3: mistackle number last year was so bad. He is good

1216
01:06:25,080 --> 01:06:27,760
Speaker 3: at the run defense, but he had to really wrangle

1217
01:06:27,840 --> 01:06:29,800
Speaker 3: OU's defense not till the second half of the season

1218
01:06:29,840 --> 01:06:31,400
Speaker 3: when he finally got the tackling to go in. So

1219
01:06:31,400 --> 01:06:33,920
Speaker 3: we'll see how he does there. When you know in

1220
01:06:34,000 --> 01:06:36,920
Speaker 3: limiting air explosives is you know, and creating pressure as

1221
01:06:36,920 --> 01:06:39,240
Speaker 3: a forte of UCF, don't let anything get behind you.

1222
01:06:39,280 --> 01:06:41,320
Speaker 3: Try to get pressure on the quarterback with three or four.

1223
01:06:41,680 --> 01:06:45,320
Speaker 3: We'll see if Roof can do that. But really, the offense,

1224
01:06:45,560 --> 01:06:49,160
Speaker 3: are you kidding me? kJ Jefferson comes in to run

1225
01:06:49,240 --> 01:06:52,919
Speaker 3: Gus Malson's wildcat. I mean, for everybody listening I saw

1226
01:06:52,960 --> 01:06:55,320
Speaker 3: Gus Malson's Wildcat for the first time in two thousand

1227
01:06:55,320 --> 01:06:58,400
Speaker 3: and six at Springdale High School. It was game changing

1228
01:06:58,680 --> 01:07:01,480
Speaker 3: because then Felix Jones and Darre McFadden ran it at Arkansas.

1229
01:07:02,000 --> 01:07:04,120
Speaker 3: Then you saw Cam Newton win a national title at

1230
01:07:04,160 --> 01:07:08,480
Speaker 3: Auburn without being prompted and out being asked. At Big

1231
01:07:08,520 --> 01:07:12,200
Speaker 3: twelve media Days in Las Vegas, Gus said, kJ Jefferson

1232
01:07:12,280 --> 01:07:14,320
Speaker 3: is the closest thing to Cam that I've ever had.

1233
01:07:15,280 --> 01:07:17,800
Speaker 3: That should be scary, that should put everybody else on alert.

1234
01:07:17,880 --> 01:07:20,200
Speaker 3: Then you go and look at the transfer portal. Penny

1235
01:07:20,240 --> 01:07:24,120
Speaker 3: Boone is joining this backfield. I mean you would agree

1236
01:07:24,160 --> 01:07:25,840
Speaker 3: this is the best back out of the mac out

1237
01:07:25,880 --> 01:07:26,880
Speaker 3: of Toledo last year.

1238
01:07:27,640 --> 01:07:30,120
Speaker 1: I mean, either Harvey and Boone their backfield as well.

1239
01:07:30,400 --> 01:07:33,720
Speaker 3: Harvey is Harvey's insane seventy four missed tackles, twenty six

1240
01:07:33,840 --> 01:07:37,360
Speaker 3: explosive runs. So you know, I think the question is,

1241
01:07:37,400 --> 01:07:41,600
Speaker 3: you know, can Kobe Hudson on the outside serve what

1242
01:07:41,680 --> 01:07:44,280
Speaker 3: Traylon Burks was for kJ in twenty twenty one. I

1243
01:07:44,320 --> 01:07:46,280
Speaker 3: don't want to talk about kJ twenty twenty two. He

1244
01:07:46,360 --> 01:07:49,439
Speaker 3: lost Traylon Burks offense changed a little bit. I don't

1245
01:07:49,440 --> 01:07:51,720
Speaker 3: want to talk about twenty twenty three and freaking dan

1246
01:07:51,880 --> 01:07:55,040
Speaker 3: Enos calling that offense for kJ. kJ has had a

1247
01:07:55,080 --> 01:07:58,120
Speaker 3: bum rap for two years. He gets here, he is

1248
01:07:58,600 --> 01:08:02,440
Speaker 3: then mean motivated the offensive style that he wants and

1249
01:08:02,480 --> 01:08:05,600
Speaker 3: if Kobe Hudson can play that role on the outside

1250
01:08:06,000 --> 01:08:07,880
Speaker 3: because the numbers are there from the slot in the

1251
01:08:07,880 --> 01:08:10,280
Speaker 3: white out, that's his burner in this offense. Now, the

1252
01:08:10,280 --> 01:08:13,320
Speaker 3: offensive line gets two key additions. Continuity should be there

1253
01:08:13,360 --> 01:08:16,679
Speaker 3: in front of them for kJ RJ, Harvey, Penny Boone,

1254
01:08:16,880 --> 01:08:19,800
Speaker 3: whatever Gus is going to dial up for the three

1255
01:08:19,800 --> 01:08:21,160
Speaker 3: of them in the backfield.

1256
01:08:20,800 --> 01:08:22,200
Speaker 1: And plays this year.

1257
01:08:22,560 --> 01:08:25,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, find me a defensive line that is going to

1258
01:08:25,920 --> 01:08:29,280
Speaker 3: stop that trio. Good to just say that the offensive

1259
01:08:29,320 --> 01:08:31,840
Speaker 3: line does their job and neutralizes the trench. Find me

1260
01:08:31,880 --> 01:08:33,880
Speaker 3: a defensive line that's going to stop those three with

1261
01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:38,680
Speaker 3: the size of kJ Jefferson from warning his most perfect playbook,

1262
01:08:39,040 --> 01:08:42,080
Speaker 3: which is the Wildcat. So you throw the spreadsheets out

1263
01:08:43,280 --> 01:08:45,080
Speaker 3: and I think what has to happen. You're going to

1264
01:08:45,160 --> 01:08:46,439
Speaker 3: have to get a key win here at the very

1265
01:08:46,479 --> 01:08:49,080
Speaker 3: end of the season in the bounce House against Utah.

1266
01:08:49,360 --> 01:08:51,400
Speaker 3: You're going to need that bye week going into West

1267
01:08:51,439 --> 01:08:54,120
Speaker 3: Virginia because that's a brutal grind of a game, but

1268
01:08:54,200 --> 01:08:57,479
Speaker 3: you do get a stint of BYU Arizona and Arizona

1269
01:08:57,560 --> 01:09:01,080
Speaker 3: State leading up to that. So and by the way,

1270
01:09:01,400 --> 01:09:03,800
Speaker 3: they get a bye before Colorado comes to town on

1271
01:09:03,840 --> 01:09:09,560
Speaker 3: September twenty eighth. They're gonna destroy Colorado's defensive line. I

1272
01:09:09,640 --> 01:09:12,519
Speaker 3: love UCF to contend. I think they get to the

1273
01:09:12,560 --> 01:09:15,719
Speaker 3: end of the Big Twelve standings with a maximum two losses.

1274
01:09:16,400 --> 01:09:18,879
Speaker 3: I think they are a prime contender to win this conference.

1275
01:09:19,560 --> 01:09:21,840
Speaker 3: My issue is price. Because of my win total, I

1276
01:09:21,840 --> 01:09:24,719
Speaker 3: can't get their I make it six point three percent

1277
01:09:24,760 --> 01:09:27,040
Speaker 3: to win the conference. That equates to fifteen to one.

1278
01:09:27,120 --> 01:09:29,960
Speaker 3: That number popped up in February. I thought to myself,

1279
01:09:30,000 --> 01:09:32,000
Speaker 3: you know what, it probably could be bigger at other places,

1280
01:09:32,000 --> 01:09:35,120
Speaker 3: like maybe at twenty to one. Never came out. I

1281
01:09:35,120 --> 01:09:38,559
Speaker 3: think I mentioned on another show somewhere in March that

1282
01:09:38,720 --> 01:09:42,960
Speaker 3: UCF was the sleeper. That number immediately disappeared. I'm gonna

1283
01:09:42,960 --> 01:09:45,760
Speaker 3: throw it all out. UCF is my pick to win

1284
01:09:45,800 --> 01:09:49,080
Speaker 3: the Big Twelve. No defensive line is stopping this offense.

1285
01:09:49,439 --> 01:09:51,679
Speaker 3: Ted Rufe can get some tackling, but he has defensive

1286
01:09:51,680 --> 01:09:54,640
Speaker 3: interior help here. And I love that scheduling angle of

1287
01:09:54,680 --> 01:09:56,599
Speaker 3: hosting Utah at the end of the season, which has

1288
01:09:56,720 --> 01:09:59,760
Speaker 3: so much implications that I can actually hedge out of this.

1289
01:10:00,640 --> 01:10:04,000
Speaker 3: So give me UCF to meet Iowa State as my

1290
01:10:04,160 --> 01:10:07,400
Speaker 3: exact box for making the Big Twelve championship.

1291
01:10:08,640 --> 01:10:10,240
Speaker 1: Love it. Yeah, I can't get there on price, but

1292
01:10:10,600 --> 01:10:14,599
Speaker 1: I definitely can see the upside if these transfers on

1293
01:10:14,680 --> 01:10:18,000
Speaker 1: defense hit because I do love the fit of Jefferson.

1294
01:10:19,800 --> 01:10:22,880
Speaker 1: Let's move on to another team that'll be counting on transfers,

1295
01:10:22,920 --> 01:10:26,799
Speaker 1: and that's Texas Tech over seven and a half plus

1296
01:10:26,800 --> 01:10:29,479
Speaker 1: one twenty five fifteen to one to win the Big Twelve.

1297
01:10:30,439 --> 01:10:32,360
Speaker 1: They made the final list of the teams that I

1298
01:10:32,400 --> 01:10:34,880
Speaker 1: was considering as a future So here's my case for

1299
01:10:34,960 --> 01:10:37,880
Speaker 1: Texas Tech. I've always been higher than the market on

1300
01:10:37,960 --> 01:10:40,200
Speaker 1: Baron Morton. And by the way, going back to the

1301
01:10:40,200 --> 01:10:43,120
Speaker 1: West Virginia under Texas in West Virginia who beat Texas

1302
01:10:43,120 --> 01:10:45,360
Speaker 1: Tech last year, Baron Morton had no arm in that game.

1303
01:10:45,400 --> 01:10:47,639
Speaker 1: If you go watch it, he literally could not throw

1304
01:10:47,680 --> 01:10:50,320
Speaker 1: the ball forward he was so hurt. And Texas Tech

1305
01:10:50,360 --> 01:10:54,120
Speaker 1: hasn't had a quarterback stay healthy from the first game

1306
01:10:54,160 --> 01:10:56,759
Speaker 1: to the last game since Patrick Mahons in twenty sixteen.

1307
01:10:57,080 --> 01:11:01,120
Speaker 1: Pretty wild stat There's still a question about Morton's shoulder.

1308
01:11:02,439 --> 01:11:04,360
Speaker 1: In the spring, they say he's fully healthy. I read

1309
01:11:04,360 --> 01:11:06,840
Speaker 1: an article that today that said he's fully healthy. I'm like,

1310
01:11:06,840 --> 01:11:11,600
Speaker 1: oh my god, this again. He every week with the

1311
01:11:11,640 --> 01:11:15,439
Speaker 1: Texas Tech quarterback It's already starting. But I'm very high

1312
01:11:15,439 --> 01:11:18,120
Speaker 1: on Morton Brooks, their running back as a stud. They

1313
01:11:18,120 --> 01:11:21,160
Speaker 1: did rebuild their offensive line, they rebuilt their wide receiver

1314
01:11:21,240 --> 01:11:25,320
Speaker 1: room heavy portal entries there, but I actually think they

1315
01:11:25,320 --> 01:11:27,280
Speaker 1: could be improved now. A lot of it's gonna come

1316
01:11:27,280 --> 01:11:29,680
Speaker 1: down to continuity and how they gel, but I think

1317
01:11:29,680 --> 01:11:32,160
Speaker 1: from a talent perspective, they could be better. It's not

1318
01:11:32,240 --> 01:11:34,840
Speaker 1: like the wide receivers were great last year. It's not

1319
01:11:34,920 --> 01:11:37,559
Speaker 1: like the offensive line was great. They sold, you know,

1320
01:11:37,600 --> 01:11:40,080
Speaker 1: over one hundred and twenty starts that are returning. But

1321
01:11:40,120 --> 01:11:42,559
Speaker 1: I think that overall they could have more talent. And

1322
01:11:42,560 --> 01:11:45,240
Speaker 1: this is a team that's had good recruiting classes the

1323
01:11:45,240 --> 01:11:47,200
Speaker 1: past few years. And I like some of the portal

1324
01:11:47,200 --> 01:11:53,040
Speaker 1: hals on their On defense, it's a rebuilt defensive line.

1325
01:11:53,720 --> 01:11:56,800
Speaker 1: You know, they're I like their linebackers, but they're gonna

1326
01:11:56,840 --> 01:11:59,000
Speaker 1: miss Hutchinson Brad from the defensive line, they lose two

1327
01:11:59,040 --> 01:12:02,920
Speaker 1: pros and the secondary they're gonna need some transfers to hit.

1328
01:12:04,560 --> 01:12:08,000
Speaker 1: But this is like to me, because I'm so high

1329
01:12:08,000 --> 01:12:10,880
Speaker 1: on Morton when he is healthy, I think just the

1330
01:12:10,920 --> 01:12:14,360
Speaker 1: market is I think the market just I'm higher than

1331
01:12:14,360 --> 01:12:16,400
Speaker 1: the market when it comes to him and his potential.

1332
01:12:17,280 --> 01:12:19,759
Speaker 1: And this is like there's like this post, you're getting

1333
01:12:19,760 --> 01:12:22,600
Speaker 1: a little bit of a potential discount on Texas Tech. Now,

1334
01:12:22,600 --> 01:12:26,760
Speaker 1: I wish it was twenty to one, not fifteen to one.

1335
01:12:27,040 --> 01:12:28,759
Speaker 1: This is like the post hype text attack.

1336
01:12:28,840 --> 01:12:28,960
Speaker 3: Right.

1337
01:12:29,080 --> 01:12:33,040
Speaker 1: Last year they were everyone's pick to win, the sleeper

1338
01:12:33,040 --> 01:12:35,400
Speaker 1: pick to win the Big twelve, and you know they

1339
01:12:35,439 --> 01:12:37,240
Speaker 1: went six and six and then when their Bowl.

1340
01:12:37,360 --> 01:12:39,479
Speaker 3: The first two games really knocked that out high.

1341
01:12:40,040 --> 01:12:42,280
Speaker 1: Yeah that's what So I want no part of their

1342
01:12:42,320 --> 01:12:46,760
Speaker 1: win total. Texas Tech. Every year loses a game, they'll

1343
01:12:46,800 --> 01:12:49,160
Speaker 1: like they'll lose to Wazoo, Right, I can't you see

1344
01:12:49,160 --> 01:12:51,320
Speaker 1: that They'll lose like in overtime on a block field

1345
01:12:51,320 --> 01:12:55,639
Speaker 1: goal or something. Yeah, this's is what they do. And

1346
01:12:55,760 --> 01:12:59,120
Speaker 1: but like if they can figure it out and not

1347
01:12:59,600 --> 01:13:01,080
Speaker 1: like I think that's like the swing game of their

1348
01:13:01,080 --> 01:13:05,240
Speaker 1: win total. But if they can figure that out and

1349
01:13:05,280 --> 01:13:09,479
Speaker 1: Morton stays healthy, like there's a chance they're sick. They're

1350
01:13:09,560 --> 01:13:14,000
Speaker 1: five and zero heading to Arizona. They play Abilene, North Texas,

1351
01:13:14,040 --> 01:13:19,000
Speaker 1: Arizona State, since he at home in between at Wazoo

1352
01:13:19,040 --> 01:13:20,600
Speaker 1: and Week two. Then they go to at Arizona. I

1353
01:13:20,640 --> 01:13:21,840
Speaker 1: think it's going to take a step back, and they

1354
01:13:21,840 --> 01:13:26,400
Speaker 1: get Baylor at home, then at TCU, at Iowa State,

1355
01:13:26,479 --> 01:13:30,040
Speaker 1: Colorado at home. I mean they get five Big twelve

1356
01:13:30,080 --> 01:13:33,800
Speaker 1: home games, could start really fast. They avoid they don't

1357
01:13:33,800 --> 01:13:35,640
Speaker 1: get the bottom two, but they also don't get the

1358
01:13:35,680 --> 01:13:39,000
Speaker 1: top two in the conferences. They avoid Utah, Kansas State.

1359
01:13:39,040 --> 01:13:40,880
Speaker 1: They also avoid UCP in Kansas.

1360
01:13:41,240 --> 01:13:42,800
Speaker 3: So like more.

1361
01:13:42,840 --> 01:13:46,080
Speaker 1: If Morton's healthy, the transferst hit. I wish the price

1362
01:13:46,120 --> 01:13:51,000
Speaker 1: a little better. But that's my case for for Texas Tech,

1363
01:13:51,040 --> 01:13:54,200
Speaker 1: which there's a lot of talent on this roster. You

1364
01:13:54,240 --> 01:13:57,320
Speaker 1: said you'd be shocked if they got there. Yeah, to

1365
01:13:57,400 --> 01:13:59,040
Speaker 1: the Big twelve. What why are you lower than me

1366
01:13:59,600 --> 01:14:00,479
Speaker 1: on the Raiders?

1367
01:14:00,680 --> 01:14:02,800
Speaker 3: Well, first off, from a pricing perspective, I give him

1368
01:14:02,800 --> 01:14:05,519
Speaker 3: a four point nine percent chance that you're right spot on.

1369
01:14:05,560 --> 01:14:07,920
Speaker 3: That should be plus nineteen fifty. They should be twenty

1370
01:14:07,920 --> 01:14:09,120
Speaker 3: to one or better. If you're going to take a

1371
01:14:09,200 --> 01:14:13,720
Speaker 3: number also pay attention to the market. Generally, teams like this,

1372
01:14:14,240 --> 01:14:17,040
Speaker 3: their numbers tend to float higher when the books don't

1373
01:14:17,080 --> 01:14:19,559
Speaker 3: get money. So if you like Texas Tech, I think

1374
01:14:19,600 --> 01:14:21,519
Speaker 3: could get a better number here in mid August. Anyways,

1375
01:14:21,800 --> 01:14:25,280
Speaker 3: for I mean, there's a couple hidden things in that schedule.

1376
01:14:26,160 --> 01:14:28,160
Speaker 3: The four of the nine teams they play in conference

1377
01:14:28,200 --> 01:14:29,760
Speaker 3: come off of a bye week if you care about that,

1378
01:14:29,800 --> 01:14:31,160
Speaker 3: and three of them are in Three of them are

1379
01:14:31,160 --> 01:14:34,599
Speaker 3: in November. Iowa State, Colorado, and Oklahoma State. I wouldn't

1380
01:14:34,600 --> 01:14:36,439
Speaker 3: want to face any of those three teams in November

1381
01:14:36,720 --> 01:14:37,880
Speaker 3: off of a bye week, so they are.

1382
01:14:37,840 --> 01:14:40,240
Speaker 1: And if four or six are on the road too,

1383
01:14:40,240 --> 01:14:42,840
Speaker 1: in the middle, so that's not it not ideal. So yeah,

1384
01:14:42,840 --> 01:14:45,719
Speaker 1: they're going to pay for that easy start, right.

1385
01:14:45,920 --> 01:14:47,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah they are. And so you know, you look

1386
01:14:47,920 --> 01:14:50,880
Speaker 3: at Morton eleven big time throws, fifteen turnover worthy plays.

1387
01:14:50,880 --> 01:14:52,840
Speaker 3: How much of that is health? How much is that

1388
01:14:52,960 --> 01:14:55,719
Speaker 3: you know, other issues that could be going on, because

1389
01:14:55,720 --> 01:14:57,120
Speaker 3: we do like his arm, we always have since he

1390
01:14:57,160 --> 01:14:59,960
Speaker 3: as a true freshman. There are wide receiver options available.

1391
01:15:00,080 --> 01:15:02,000
Speaker 3: You were right, they cleaned out the offensive line wide

1392
01:15:02,040 --> 01:15:05,479
Speaker 3: receiver unit's complete roster wipe. But Fresno's Josh Kelly comes

1393
01:15:05,520 --> 01:15:08,760
Speaker 3: in five star blue chip Michael Hudson supposed to be

1394
01:15:08,800 --> 01:15:11,160
Speaker 3: the best wide receiver in the history of Texas Tech,

1395
01:15:11,160 --> 01:15:14,280
Speaker 3: which is saying something considering what they've produced, it might

1396
01:15:14,280 --> 01:15:17,000
Speaker 3: start in the slot, right, Yeah, I mean that would.

1397
01:15:17,000 --> 01:15:18,719
Speaker 3: I mean, if they can stay healthy and the offensive

1398
01:15:18,720 --> 01:15:20,360
Speaker 3: line can give barn more than a half a second,

1399
01:15:20,560 --> 01:15:22,880
Speaker 3: we got we got some cooking here, But this portal

1400
01:15:22,920 --> 01:15:26,120
Speaker 3: infused offensive line really bothers me when you look at

1401
01:15:26,120 --> 01:15:27,880
Speaker 3: the grades of the guys that they brought in. Now,

1402
01:15:27,920 --> 01:15:30,599
Speaker 3: TODs Brooks three point four yards after contact and created

1403
01:15:30,680 --> 01:15:35,800
Speaker 3: a crazy ninety six missed tackles last year, but with

1404
01:15:35,840 --> 01:15:37,840
Speaker 3: this offensive line, he may need to create two hundred.

1405
01:15:38,360 --> 01:15:42,040
Speaker 3: So you know, he finished fourth nationally in elusiveness, and

1406
01:15:42,080 --> 01:15:44,080
Speaker 3: it's a huge advantage in Week one. Now, remember this

1407
01:15:44,560 --> 01:15:48,839
Speaker 3: against Wazoo. Texas Tech's new offensive line is Clay McGuire.

1408
01:15:49,320 --> 01:15:51,840
Speaker 3: He just came in from Wazoo. So I think that's

1409
01:15:51,840 --> 01:15:53,640
Speaker 3: a huge advantage in that game. But you're right, they

1410
01:15:53,680 --> 01:15:56,400
Speaker 3: can't mistake themselves out of that. One of the lowest

1411
01:15:56,439 --> 01:15:59,080
Speaker 3: TARP numbers in FBS on defense twenty five percent of

1412
01:15:59,120 --> 01:16:02,320
Speaker 3: tackles in PBUs come back. All the havoc producers from

1413
01:16:02,400 --> 01:16:05,320
Speaker 3: last year are gone. The defensive line does get to

1414
01:16:05,320 --> 01:16:08,600
Speaker 3: Brailan Carroll in safety Devin Cromwell. But we're talking just

1415
01:16:08,720 --> 01:16:14,360
Speaker 3: graded above replacement player. You're right, easiest conference five games.

1416
01:16:14,479 --> 01:16:16,920
Speaker 3: Hidden aspect of that, I project them in the sixes

1417
01:16:17,040 --> 01:16:19,840
Speaker 3: high sixes here, even s P plus projects them about

1418
01:16:19,840 --> 01:16:21,880
Speaker 3: seven point one. I'm under seven and a half on

1419
01:16:21,920 --> 01:16:23,519
Speaker 3: this team. I've I've got a little bit of money

1420
01:16:23,520 --> 01:16:26,439
Speaker 3: on it, got it in the app and I don't

1421
01:16:26,560 --> 01:16:30,360
Speaker 3: like teams stuck with the constant health and offensive line issues,

1422
01:16:30,360 --> 01:16:32,599
Speaker 3: and I got a twenty five percent TARP rating on defense,

1423
01:16:33,400 --> 01:16:35,400
Speaker 3: and then this hidden aspect with the with the schedule.

1424
01:16:35,400 --> 01:16:37,120
Speaker 3: I mean, I wish you good luck, but man, I

1425
01:16:37,520 --> 01:16:39,640
Speaker 3: just there's a lot here for me to look for.

1426
01:16:39,160 --> 01:16:40,680
Speaker 3: Red flag perspective.

1427
01:16:41,479 --> 01:16:43,880
Speaker 1: I don't like the over for what it's worth, and

1428
01:16:43,920 --> 01:16:47,800
Speaker 1: I don't mind the under I just I.

1429
01:16:47,080 --> 01:16:49,120
Speaker 3: It's it's like you see, it's like you see. If

1430
01:16:49,160 --> 01:16:50,840
Speaker 3: I hate the win total, I'll take the time.

1431
01:16:51,800 --> 01:16:53,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, But I could make a case that if it all,

1432
01:16:54,520 --> 01:16:56,879
Speaker 1: if it all, you know, fits together, and the transfers

1433
01:16:56,920 --> 01:17:00,320
Speaker 1: hitting Morton States healthy, that there's definitely some upside with

1434
01:17:00,479 --> 01:17:03,240
Speaker 1: Texas Tech. But like I said, like I wanted twenty

1435
01:17:03,280 --> 01:17:05,160
Speaker 1: to one, and I think the best I can find

1436
01:17:05,200 --> 01:17:06,720
Speaker 1: out there is fifteen to one.

1437
01:17:08,280 --> 01:17:08,960
Speaker 3: All right, here we go.

1438
01:17:09,040 --> 01:17:12,479
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the thirdeen of the Transfer Alliance,

1439
01:17:13,240 --> 01:17:17,320
Speaker 1: and that is it's a polarizing one. Let's talk some Colorado.

1440
01:17:17,439 --> 01:17:23,040
Speaker 4: Dion Sanders, Dion Sanders, Dion Sanders, Dion Dion saluting as

1441
01:17:23,080 --> 01:17:23,639
Speaker 4: he goes.

1442
01:17:24,040 --> 01:17:28,320
Speaker 1: What does you know he'd find the one Buffalo's they

1443
01:17:28,360 --> 01:17:30,000
Speaker 1: are I think the best out there to win the

1444
01:17:30,000 --> 01:17:33,280
Speaker 1: big twelve thirty to one over five and a half

1445
01:17:33,400 --> 01:17:36,720
Speaker 1: juice to the over minus one fortieth I think is

1446
01:17:37,160 --> 01:17:42,160
Speaker 1: close to consensus right off the bat. Let me just

1447
01:17:42,200 --> 01:17:44,120
Speaker 1: ask you this, what do you project their wins.

1448
01:17:43,800 --> 01:17:45,160
Speaker 3: At five point one?

1449
01:17:46,000 --> 01:17:50,960
Speaker 1: I'm at four point four, So yes, I like the

1450
01:17:51,080 --> 01:17:54,479
Speaker 1: under Let's go through this team though they I would

1451
01:17:54,520 --> 01:17:56,200
Speaker 1: love to get an under six. I don't know if

1452
01:17:56,200 --> 01:17:57,720
Speaker 1: I can like even a juice six.

1453
01:17:57,880 --> 01:17:59,840
Speaker 3: It's moving that way. It's moving that way.

1454
01:18:00,080 --> 01:18:03,400
Speaker 1: So I'm waiting on you like Colorado under weight because

1455
01:18:03,479 --> 01:18:06,000
Speaker 1: I mean, right now, it's like a some of the

1456
01:18:06,040 --> 01:18:07,800
Speaker 1: NFL spread's sitting at like two and a half. You notes,

1457
01:18:07,840 --> 01:18:09,200
Speaker 1: but the good to three. Do you like the dog weight?

1458
01:18:09,400 --> 01:18:12,440
Speaker 1: And six is a key number and winter tables.

1459
01:18:12,280 --> 01:18:14,759
Speaker 3: It ain't getting to seven. You are not getting to seven.

1460
01:18:15,439 --> 01:18:18,280
Speaker 1: That's one of the teams where recreational money can have

1461
01:18:18,280 --> 01:18:21,200
Speaker 1: an impact because it's everyone is betting it, like the

1462
01:18:21,400 --> 01:18:25,439
Speaker 1: Heisman exposure, the national Championship, to make the college ball playoff.

1463
01:18:25,479 --> 01:18:30,280
Speaker 1: It's all Colorado talk about bringing guys in and guys leaving.

1464
01:18:30,320 --> 01:18:32,960
Speaker 1: In the transfer portal, that's what this team is. They

1465
01:18:33,120 --> 01:18:38,840
Speaker 1: brought in twenty three defensive transfers, just to illustrate how

1466
01:18:38,960 --> 01:18:43,559
Speaker 1: much of this team is completely reliant on bringing guys in.

1467
01:18:43,600 --> 01:18:45,120
Speaker 1: They brought a ton of guys in last year. A

1468
01:18:45,120 --> 01:18:46,800
Speaker 1: lot of those guys left. They brought a ton more

1469
01:18:46,800 --> 01:18:50,320
Speaker 1: guys in. One area that I do like where they

1470
01:18:50,320 --> 01:18:52,680
Speaker 1: brought in is a defensive line. I like a lot

1471
01:18:52,680 --> 01:18:54,400
Speaker 1: of the guys they brought in there, so the defensive

1472
01:18:54,439 --> 01:18:57,719
Speaker 1: line should be better. However, depth is still an issue.

1473
01:18:58,160 --> 01:19:02,639
Speaker 1: I'm still not sold on the offensive line. Obviously you're

1474
01:19:02,960 --> 01:19:05,679
Speaker 1: and I'm not a Shermer guy. You know, Shador Sanders

1475
01:19:05,720 --> 01:19:10,439
Speaker 1: is super talented. Their receiving cores is ridiculous, so you

1476
01:19:10,479 --> 01:19:12,040
Speaker 1: know they're going to put up points. They're going to

1477
01:19:12,120 --> 01:19:14,640
Speaker 1: make plays. You know, Horn and Hunter are back, and

1478
01:19:14,640 --> 01:19:17,400
Speaker 1: then they add you know Western Shepherd, who were really good.

1479
01:19:17,439 --> 01:19:19,720
Speaker 1: They had depth there, really one of the best wide

1480
01:19:19,760 --> 01:19:22,439
Speaker 1: receivers in the country in my opinion. But the offensive

1481
01:19:22,439 --> 01:19:25,080
Speaker 1: line still not up to par for me. Right be

1482
01:19:25,200 --> 01:19:27,840
Speaker 1: up with school record fifty six sacks last year and

1483
01:19:27,920 --> 01:19:31,559
Speaker 1: only averaged two point three yards per carry. While everyone's

1484
01:19:31,600 --> 01:19:35,400
Speaker 1: gone and they're starting over new offensive line coach as well.

1485
01:19:35,920 --> 01:19:39,320
Speaker 1: Can they improve, yes, because it can't. It can't be

1486
01:19:39,479 --> 01:19:43,400
Speaker 1: much worse than last year. But just how I'm grading them,

1487
01:19:44,160 --> 01:19:47,120
Speaker 1: I don't see a ton of upside, which I think

1488
01:19:47,200 --> 01:19:50,400
Speaker 1: is ultimately going to hold them back. And the defense.

1489
01:19:50,840 --> 01:19:53,680
Speaker 1: I do like the defensive line, you know, if they

1490
01:19:53,720 --> 01:19:58,760
Speaker 1: have some talent in the secondary, including Hunter, but the

1491
01:19:58,800 --> 01:20:01,080
Speaker 1: back end of this defense still isn't up to par

1492
01:20:01,240 --> 01:20:04,920
Speaker 1: for me. I've talked about this before. You're not going

1493
01:20:05,040 --> 01:20:09,120
Speaker 1: to get any free games because of who Colorado is.

1494
01:20:09,600 --> 01:20:12,439
Speaker 1: It's going to be another circus this year, and you're

1495
01:20:12,439 --> 01:20:16,000
Speaker 1: gonna get everyone's best shot, including North Dakota State at

1496
01:20:16,040 --> 01:20:19,280
Speaker 1: Nebraska revenge for Nebraska once. I'm sure they want that

1497
01:20:19,360 --> 01:20:22,439
Speaker 1: game at Colorado State rivalry game they lost and overtime.

1498
01:20:22,479 --> 01:20:23,400
Speaker 1: I'm sure they want that game.

1499
01:20:23,439 --> 01:20:24,240
Speaker 3: That's your non.

1500
01:20:24,120 --> 01:20:28,120
Speaker 1: Com Are you positive Colorado's winning any of those games?

1501
01:20:28,400 --> 01:20:31,080
Speaker 1: Would you be shocked if they lost all three? No,

1502
01:20:32,680 --> 01:20:40,080
Speaker 1: there's really no gimmes on this schedule, which is one

1503
01:20:40,080 --> 01:20:41,920
Speaker 1: of the diet before which.

1504
01:20:41,800 --> 01:20:43,880
Speaker 3: Is what it, which is what Dion's lead in was

1505
01:20:43,920 --> 01:20:46,479
Speaker 3: a big told can't we have a layup? Please? Is

1506
01:20:46,479 --> 01:20:47,080
Speaker 3: what he said.

1507
01:20:47,760 --> 01:20:51,400
Speaker 1: Face each of the top six in the league one

1508
01:20:51,439 --> 01:20:52,360
Speaker 1: of the bottom four.

1509
01:20:53,520 --> 01:20:54,000
Speaker 3: That's it.

1510
01:20:54,520 --> 01:20:57,360
Speaker 1: I mean, you get SINCI at home, but you also

1511
01:20:57,479 --> 01:21:01,920
Speaker 1: have Utah and Oklahoma State eight at home. You go

1512
01:21:01,960 --> 01:21:05,920
Speaker 1: to Kansas, you go two Arizona to Texas Tech two UCF.

1513
01:21:06,240 --> 01:21:08,080
Speaker 1: You know, if everything goes right, maybe they can get

1514
01:21:08,080 --> 01:21:11,120
Speaker 1: the six wins. They get some breaks. I don't see it.

1515
01:21:11,400 --> 01:21:12,920
Speaker 1: I show a lot of value on the under. I'm

1516
01:21:12,960 --> 01:21:15,439
Speaker 1: on the under here, but I'm gonna wait to see

1517
01:21:15,479 --> 01:21:17,920
Speaker 1: if I can get a six. We talked to depth

1518
01:21:18,000 --> 01:21:20,559
Speaker 1: is still an issue. Well, look at that back half

1519
01:21:20,600 --> 01:21:23,000
Speaker 1: of the schedule. Obviously they're gonna be exciting to watch.

1520
01:21:23,320 --> 01:21:25,719
Speaker 1: Brow in that you're gonna get everyone's best shot every week.

1521
01:21:25,920 --> 01:21:31,880
Speaker 1: I think that this is an underplay. I expect to

1522
01:21:32,120 --> 01:21:34,800
Speaker 1: be great when I walk into a room and it's

1523
01:21:34,840 --> 01:21:37,519
Speaker 1: seventy two degrees and when I get there, it's gonna

1524
01:21:37,560 --> 01:21:38,160
Speaker 1: be seventy.

1525
01:21:38,400 --> 01:21:42,120
Speaker 3: I expected to make change.

1526
01:21:41,920 --> 01:21:43,720
Speaker 1: Because last year they went four to eight last year,

1527
01:21:43,760 --> 01:21:46,000
Speaker 1: and people say, yeah, but they went three and five

1528
01:21:46,040 --> 01:21:48,640
Speaker 1: and one possession games. Not all one possession games are

1529
01:21:48,640 --> 01:21:51,920
Speaker 1: created equal. How many times was Colorado down thirty and

1530
01:21:51,960 --> 01:21:55,920
Speaker 1: they scored like three touchdowns in the last like eight minutes, Right,

1531
01:21:55,960 --> 01:21:57,960
Speaker 1: they had a ton of comebacks where they were out

1532
01:21:58,000 --> 01:22:00,479
Speaker 1: of it, they came back to cover. How many backdoors

1533
01:22:00,520 --> 01:22:01,400
Speaker 1: did they get last year?

1534
01:22:01,600 --> 01:22:05,439
Speaker 3: Shouldn't shouldn't be Colorado State a double overtime?

1535
01:22:05,720 --> 01:22:07,719
Speaker 1: Well, so, I don't think that they were terribly unlucky

1536
01:22:08,360 --> 01:22:10,439
Speaker 1: that they went for and eight. I think that's probably

1537
01:22:10,439 --> 01:22:12,360
Speaker 1: where they end up again this year.

1538
01:22:12,439 --> 01:22:15,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the words of Dave Matthews so much to say.

1539
01:22:15,520 --> 01:22:19,400
Speaker 3: First off, rip Sean Lewis and his Kent State offensive

1540
01:22:19,400 --> 01:22:22,080
Speaker 3: lineman that came in last year. Those guys are all gone.

1541
01:22:22,479 --> 01:22:25,360
Speaker 3: And Shawn Lewis himself is at San Diego State. By

1542
01:22:25,360 --> 01:22:27,839
Speaker 3: the way, shambles promotion, check out our Mountain West podcast.

1543
01:22:27,880 --> 01:22:29,800
Speaker 3: I got to chew Sewn Lewis's ear off for an

1544
01:22:29,800 --> 01:22:33,320
Speaker 3: hour about how Colorado actually works in the coaching room.

1545
01:22:33,760 --> 01:22:36,639
Speaker 3: The offensive line is still undersized. I mean freshportal crew

1546
01:22:36,680 --> 01:22:38,320
Speaker 3: comes in, but this is not a big twelve sized

1547
01:22:38,360 --> 01:22:41,880
Speaker 3: offensive line. They're starting a true freshman. It left tackle

1548
01:22:41,960 --> 01:22:45,880
Speaker 3: to protect Shadur Sanders what and they.

1549
01:22:45,880 --> 01:22:47,800
Speaker 1: Might still not have a run game. It's like how

1550
01:22:47,880 --> 01:22:49,640
Speaker 1: much how many times can you just drop back and

1551
01:22:49,680 --> 01:22:50,360
Speaker 1: rely on that?

1552
01:22:50,800 --> 01:22:52,680
Speaker 3: The run game was Dylan Edwards in the flats and

1553
01:22:52,760 --> 01:22:54,599
Speaker 3: let him try to make something happen. That was first

1554
01:22:54,640 --> 01:22:56,840
Speaker 3: and second down. Before you know he had Schadure trying

1555
01:22:56,840 --> 01:23:00,519
Speaker 3: to throw downfield. Now that's where the difference between Lewis

1556
01:23:00,520 --> 01:23:03,639
Speaker 3: and Pat Shermer is going to be. Besides tempo, expect

1557
01:23:03,640 --> 01:23:08,479
Speaker 3: a huge tempo decrease for Colorado's numbers. But Pat Shermer said,

1558
01:23:09,400 --> 01:23:12,400
Speaker 3: what I'm doing in my offense is I'm getting rid

1559
01:23:12,800 --> 01:23:16,320
Speaker 3: of the pass route option, the route tree option for

1560
01:23:16,360 --> 01:23:18,759
Speaker 3: the wide receivers. They are going to run a strict

1561
01:23:18,840 --> 01:23:20,760
Speaker 3: route and not have the option to pick their own

1562
01:23:20,800 --> 01:23:24,760
Speaker 3: tree after the snap. So that should cut down on

1563
01:23:24,800 --> 01:23:28,559
Speaker 3: some post snap mistakes that kind of happened, misreads between

1564
01:23:28,640 --> 01:23:33,679
Speaker 3: Schadur and his wide receivers which are unbelievable. Besides Travis Hunter.

1565
01:23:34,160 --> 01:23:35,719
Speaker 3: They're going to go and they're going to get Johnte

1566
01:23:35,840 --> 01:23:38,360
Speaker 3: Wester two point seven yards per route run at FAU

1567
01:23:38,439 --> 01:23:42,160
Speaker 3: last year for Tom Herman. Amazing. So we'll see how

1568
01:23:42,160 --> 01:23:45,760
Speaker 3: the offense does. To me, it's the same thing. First

1569
01:23:45,800 --> 01:23:47,920
Speaker 3: and second down, we're going to pass in the flats.

1570
01:23:48,520 --> 01:23:50,040
Speaker 3: We're going to try to pass short, We're going to

1571
01:23:50,080 --> 01:23:52,160
Speaker 3: try to get something out of the backfield. Then we're

1572
01:23:52,200 --> 01:23:55,479
Speaker 3: going deep ball and make no mistake, Shadurra Sanders, if

1573
01:23:55,520 --> 01:23:58,479
Speaker 3: he was on say Ohio State, he should be at

1574
01:23:58,520 --> 01:24:00,320
Speaker 3: the top of the board for the Heisman. He is

1575
01:24:00,360 --> 01:24:04,160
Speaker 3: that good. But you don't have an offensive line. It's

1576
01:24:04,160 --> 01:24:06,439
Speaker 3: going to protect you. And that's all Deon Sanders could

1577
01:24:06,439 --> 01:24:08,320
Speaker 3: ever talk about. I was throwing his offensive line under

1578
01:24:08,360 --> 01:24:11,519
Speaker 3: the bus. Protect my son. I need some protection. I mean,

1579
01:24:11,960 --> 01:24:14,360
Speaker 3: I mean, Beelamo once made a comment like this about

1580
01:24:14,360 --> 01:24:17,240
Speaker 3: his offensive line, but it wasn't this bad. So when

1581
01:24:17,280 --> 01:24:19,200
Speaker 3: you look at the defense, and this is what brings

1582
01:24:19,240 --> 01:24:21,640
Speaker 3: me to that game. Colorado goes to Kansas late in

1583
01:24:21,640 --> 01:24:23,760
Speaker 3: the year, it's like, I think that's more of a

1584
01:24:23,840 --> 01:24:26,000
Speaker 3: trip for them to play in an NFL stadium than

1585
01:24:26,040 --> 01:24:28,240
Speaker 3: it is for them to actually play Kansas. When asked

1586
01:24:28,280 --> 01:24:31,360
Speaker 3: about Robert Livingston coming in, he was a secondary coach

1587
01:24:31,400 --> 01:24:33,439
Speaker 3: for the Bengals. He's been in the Bengals system forever.

1588
01:24:34,120 --> 01:24:37,720
Speaker 3: It was Livingston's NFL background and preparing these kids for

1589
01:24:37,760 --> 01:24:40,360
Speaker 3: the next level. And I just kind of sat back

1590
01:24:40,400 --> 01:24:45,679
Speaker 3: after Dion said that, and I thought, besides Shadure, besides

1591
01:24:45,760 --> 01:24:48,960
Speaker 3: Travis Hunter, and besides maybe Shiloh and Western, who the

1592
01:24:49,040 --> 01:24:51,160
Speaker 3: hell on the squad is going to the NFL? Like

1593
01:24:51,200 --> 01:24:54,160
Speaker 3: you brought a defensive coordinator in to get them ready

1594
01:24:54,840 --> 01:24:57,280
Speaker 3: for the NFL. So it just seems like the focus

1595
01:24:57,360 --> 01:24:59,160
Speaker 3: is not where it should be, like winning the Big twelve,

1596
01:24:59,200 --> 01:25:01,600
Speaker 3: winning the National time, but Travis Hunter is going to

1597
01:25:01,640 --> 01:25:03,800
Speaker 3: be the all important floating nickel and the heavy Tampa

1598
01:25:03,840 --> 01:25:06,880
Speaker 3: two Preston Hodge. I mean that this is what Robert

1599
01:25:06,880 --> 01:25:09,080
Speaker 3: I expect Robert Lilies to bring what the Bengals have

1600
01:25:09,200 --> 01:25:11,200
Speaker 3: in so that's going to put Travis Hunter in the

1601
01:25:11,360 --> 01:25:14,759
Speaker 3: all important spot of the nickel. Preston Hodge comes from liberty.

1602
01:25:15,120 --> 01:25:17,240
Speaker 3: He was used in single coverage on the slot on

1603
01:25:17,280 --> 01:25:19,880
Speaker 3: the outside. That's a good defensive piece. And then we

1604
01:25:19,960 --> 01:25:23,479
Speaker 3: just talked about how UCF already had defensive interior help well.

1605
01:25:23,479 --> 01:25:25,679
Speaker 3: Colorado won the sweep stakes on the portal. Bj Green

1606
01:25:25,720 --> 01:25:28,160
Speaker 3: comes in from Arizona State, Ray and Buell comes in

1607
01:25:28,160 --> 01:25:30,679
Speaker 3: from Ohio. Those are two of the big defensive interior

1608
01:25:30,720 --> 01:25:34,240
Speaker 3: players that people wanted in the portal. So I think

1609
01:25:34,280 --> 01:25:38,360
Speaker 3: my whole thing stuck is Colorado got better in the

1610
01:25:38,400 --> 01:25:43,439
Speaker 3: starting depth chart with the starters. They did absolutely nothing

1611
01:25:43,920 --> 01:25:46,759
Speaker 3: to build depth on the offensive line and the trench

1612
01:25:46,800 --> 01:25:49,280
Speaker 3: on defense. They did nothing to build depth anywhere on

1613
01:25:49,320 --> 01:25:51,880
Speaker 3: this field, on this on this roster. You look at

1614
01:25:51,920 --> 01:25:54,400
Speaker 3: their five Big twelve games on the road fulsome field,

1615
01:25:54,479 --> 01:25:58,200
Speaker 3: Kansas State, Utah, Clombus State, All I'm sorry, some of

1616
01:25:58,240 --> 01:26:00,880
Speaker 3: these games you know are in November. Colorado is going

1617
01:26:00,960 --> 01:26:05,160
Speaker 3: to go to shitty weather, grinding against Kansas, grinding against

1618
01:26:05,200 --> 01:26:08,479
Speaker 3: Oklahoma State. That bad weather and boulder is good for

1619
01:26:08,479 --> 01:26:13,639
Speaker 3: Oklahoma State in the season. So major talent upgrade, zero depth,

1620
01:26:13,960 --> 01:26:16,120
Speaker 3: a trip to the Bounce House on September twenty eighth,

1621
01:26:16,200 --> 01:26:19,080
Speaker 3: with UCF off a bye week, it all piles into

1622
01:26:19,080 --> 01:26:21,120
Speaker 3: a win total of five point one. I will say

1623
01:26:21,160 --> 01:26:24,439
Speaker 3: this shout out to the guys at South Point. Dion

1624
01:26:24,479 --> 01:26:26,639
Speaker 3: got up there on stage, started talking about North Dakota

1625
01:26:26,680 --> 01:26:28,679
Speaker 3: State and saying I need a layup. I need a layup,

1626
01:26:29,080 --> 01:26:31,240
Speaker 3: made further comments about how this game is going to

1627
01:26:31,240 --> 01:26:33,799
Speaker 3: be really tough for them. That number in the market

1628
01:26:33,840 --> 01:26:35,800
Speaker 3: was taking a big dip and getting a lot of

1629
01:26:35,800 --> 01:26:38,559
Speaker 3: buys some money until there was extreme buyback about two

1630
01:26:38,600 --> 01:26:41,559
Speaker 3: weeks before Big twelve media days after Dion said that,

1631
01:26:42,000 --> 01:26:43,920
Speaker 3: and that's floating around. That number is going to dip

1632
01:26:43,960 --> 01:26:46,200
Speaker 3: even farther. I think Colorado is going to be just

1633
01:26:46,240 --> 01:26:48,479
Speaker 3: fining game one. Yeah, there's I'm not going to get

1634
01:26:48,520 --> 01:26:50,599
Speaker 3: in North Kota State. I think they're going to be fine.

1635
01:26:50,680 --> 01:26:54,040
Speaker 3: I think that's a number at about six. If you can,

1636
01:26:54,280 --> 01:26:55,800
Speaker 3: We're going to wait till three and a half or four.

1637
01:26:55,960 --> 01:26:58,439
Speaker 3: Maybe fire in week one. I love the game of

1638
01:26:58,479 --> 01:27:01,759
Speaker 3: the year against Nebraska. I project Colorado to be plus

1639
01:27:01,760 --> 01:27:03,200
Speaker 3: two in that game. It's six and a half in

1640
01:27:03,240 --> 01:27:06,000
Speaker 3: the market. I think that game is just two teams

1641
01:27:06,040 --> 01:27:07,920
Speaker 3: punching each other in the face in a one possession game.

1642
01:27:07,920 --> 01:27:10,120
Speaker 3: So give me six and a half points. But once

1643
01:27:10,120 --> 01:27:13,800
Speaker 3: we get past that, Jay norvel Is is going to

1644
01:27:13,840 --> 01:27:17,200
Speaker 3: throw with Tory Horton all over this defense and the

1645
01:27:17,240 --> 01:27:21,160
Speaker 3: middle portion, specifically out of the slot. I'm not confident

1646
01:27:21,200 --> 01:27:23,599
Speaker 3: they can win that game. So I'm at five point one.

1647
01:27:24,479 --> 01:27:26,280
Speaker 3: Under five and a half plus one fifteen is what

1648
01:27:26,320 --> 01:27:28,479
Speaker 3: is in the market right now. But that number, like

1649
01:27:28,520 --> 01:27:32,480
Speaker 3: Stuck said, it is going in the direction favoring Colorado.

1650
01:27:33,080 --> 01:27:37,160
Speaker 3: Wait for the six circle your calendar August twentieth, Fish,

1651
01:27:37,840 --> 01:27:40,160
Speaker 3: There should be some sixes out there. But under all

1652
01:27:40,200 --> 01:27:43,599
Speaker 3: the way here, just by the way, they don't have

1653
01:27:43,720 --> 01:27:46,960
Speaker 3: team motivations like everybody else. It's about preparing for the

1654
01:27:47,000 --> 01:27:47,519
Speaker 3: next level.

1655
01:27:48,280 --> 01:27:53,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree with you on the under Let's

1656
01:27:53,560 --> 01:27:57,000
Speaker 1: move on our next group of teams. Two teams in

1657
01:27:57,040 --> 01:28:00,840
Speaker 1: the state of Texas. I'm gonna call the potential rebounders,

1658
01:28:01,400 --> 01:28:06,960
Speaker 1: and that is TCU and Baylor. These are two teams

1659
01:28:07,000 --> 01:28:11,360
Speaker 1: that in recent seasons Baylor three years ago, TCU two

1660
01:28:11,400 --> 01:28:13,960
Speaker 1: years ago, who had you know, some of the one

1661
01:28:13,960 --> 01:28:18,760
Speaker 1: of their most successful seasons in program history. Baylor fell

1662
01:28:18,800 --> 01:28:21,439
Speaker 1: off a cliff last year. One went three and nine.

1663
01:28:21,479 --> 01:28:25,080
Speaker 1: One of those wins was an absolute miracle against UCF,

1664
01:28:25,080 --> 01:28:28,800
Speaker 1: and TCU finished five and seven. If they're making the

1665
01:28:28,880 --> 01:28:33,799
Speaker 1: National Championship, the first team to do so since Texas,

1666
01:28:33,840 --> 01:28:37,479
Speaker 1: I believe back in twenty ten, TCU, for what it's worth,

1667
01:28:37,680 --> 01:28:40,559
Speaker 1: sixteen to one. You can buy a twenty to one

1668
01:28:40,640 --> 01:28:44,000
Speaker 1: out on TCU to win the Big twelve Baylor. You

1669
01:28:44,000 --> 01:28:47,519
Speaker 1: could find a sixty five to one Baylor over five

1670
01:28:47,560 --> 01:28:50,800
Speaker 1: and a half even money TCU over seven and a

1671
01:28:50,840 --> 01:28:54,479
Speaker 1: half plus one twenty. Which one of these teams do

1672
01:28:54,479 --> 01:28:58,479
Speaker 1: you think is more likely to rebound or you? Barish

1673
01:28:58,520 --> 01:28:59,000
Speaker 1: on both?

1674
01:28:59,400 --> 01:29:03,719
Speaker 3: Bearish on both. But TCU definitely has a much much

1675
01:29:03,760 --> 01:29:08,160
Speaker 3: more rope to get away than Dave Randa does. Dave

1676
01:29:08,160 --> 01:29:08,920
Speaker 3: brand is in trouble.

1677
01:29:09,680 --> 01:29:12,160
Speaker 1: We'll start with Baylor. I mean, look, it smells like

1678
01:29:12,200 --> 01:29:13,920
Speaker 1: desperation in Waco.

1679
01:29:15,000 --> 01:29:17,559
Speaker 3: Desperation is a stinky klown.

1680
01:29:18,520 --> 01:29:19,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it feels like the end of the line for

1681
01:29:20,040 --> 01:29:22,920
Speaker 1: old desperate Dave. And he's gonna be calling the plays

1682
01:29:22,920 --> 01:29:25,920
Speaker 1: on defense. He brings in your boy Jake Spavatol to

1683
01:29:26,000 --> 01:29:28,200
Speaker 1: run the bear raid. It's gonna be a big change

1684
01:29:28,240 --> 01:29:32,479
Speaker 1: schematically on offense. Yep. My question is, look, I know

1685
01:29:32,760 --> 01:29:35,559
Speaker 1: the Mac as well as anybody. Day Kwon Finn can't

1686
01:29:35,600 --> 01:29:38,880
Speaker 1: run this offense. I'm sorry, I don't see it. I mean,

1687
01:29:38,960 --> 01:29:42,360
Speaker 1: say robertson the backup, he knows the air raid. Maybe

1688
01:29:42,400 --> 01:29:46,840
Speaker 1: he's the better option the yeah named the start. But

1689
01:29:47,800 --> 01:29:50,320
Speaker 1: that's something interesting to watch, but I think I would

1690
01:29:50,320 --> 01:29:52,760
Speaker 1: assume they wanted to be finished while they brought him in.

1691
01:29:53,320 --> 01:29:56,800
Speaker 1: But I don't think that he has the accuracy to

1692
01:29:56,920 --> 01:30:00,520
Speaker 1: run this offense. You just look at this Baylor team,

1693
01:30:00,720 --> 01:30:03,120
Speaker 1: look like, look up and down the ross, like, what

1694
01:30:03,160 --> 01:30:05,840
Speaker 1: are you excited about? Not much to me? What are

1695
01:30:05,840 --> 01:30:06,960
Speaker 1: your thoughts on the Bears?

1696
01:30:07,320 --> 01:30:09,479
Speaker 3: It does feel like a couple of desperation moves here.

1697
01:30:09,560 --> 01:30:12,200
Speaker 3: Let's i'll go really high level. Jake Spabotoll is bringing

1698
01:30:12,200 --> 01:30:15,040
Speaker 3: in a completely different offense than Jeff Grimes, so you

1699
01:30:15,040 --> 01:30:17,840
Speaker 3: can expect to see a massive tempo change. Is that

1700
01:30:18,080 --> 01:30:21,120
Speaker 3: good for this offense? And the mistakes they can make

1701
01:30:21,160 --> 01:30:23,439
Speaker 3: it and the pieces that they have, so you know

1702
01:30:23,479 --> 01:30:24,760
Speaker 3: when you look at it, they're going to go from

1703
01:30:24,760 --> 01:30:27,080
Speaker 3: twenty seven to twenty four seconds per play, so you

1704
01:30:27,080 --> 01:30:30,360
Speaker 3: expect totals to increase there. The wide receiver room one has,

1705
01:30:30,439 --> 01:30:32,880
Speaker 3: you know, Monterey Baldwin, the slot seventy one targets over

1706
01:30:32,920 --> 01:30:35,439
Speaker 3: two yards per rout run, which is our which was

1707
01:30:35,439 --> 01:30:37,960
Speaker 3: our line for explosives. But you're right about Dakwan Finn,

1708
01:30:38,040 --> 01:30:40,559
Speaker 3: who has not been named the starter. Forty six career

1709
01:30:40,560 --> 01:30:43,880
Speaker 3: big time throws, forty five turnover worthy plays sure, twenty

1710
01:30:43,880 --> 01:30:48,200
Speaker 3: five touchdowns on the ground, fifteen fumbles lost, Baylor was

1711
01:30:48,240 --> 01:30:51,120
Speaker 3: one hundred and sixth and sacks allowed last year, and

1712
01:30:51,160 --> 01:30:53,600
Speaker 3: they did nothing on the offensive line to try and

1713
01:30:53,640 --> 01:30:56,800
Speaker 3: protect Finn, who could win a game for you and

1714
01:30:56,880 --> 01:30:59,040
Speaker 3: lose a whole bunch for you. Now on the other side,

1715
01:30:59,120 --> 01:31:02,400
Speaker 3: Powladge was running a three three five last year. That

1716
01:31:03,040 --> 01:31:05,320
Speaker 3: very vanilla. Not a lot going on, not a lot

1717
01:31:05,320 --> 01:31:07,759
Speaker 3: of blitz, not a lot of you know, anything crazy.

1718
01:31:08,000 --> 01:31:10,040
Speaker 3: But Randa is going to go and call the plays

1719
01:31:10,560 --> 01:31:13,479
Speaker 3: like maybe nobody else is thinking of this except for me.

1720
01:31:14,120 --> 01:31:16,439
Speaker 3: Last time Miranda call plays was twenty nineteen, and all

1721
01:31:16,439 --> 01:31:18,640
Speaker 3: you and I could talk about was how poorly that

1722
01:31:18,800 --> 01:31:22,400
Speaker 3: LSU team was tackling Grand Delpit missed like twenty tackles

1723
01:31:22,400 --> 01:31:25,240
Speaker 3: in one game. And you know, somewhere around mid season

1724
01:31:25,320 --> 01:31:29,360
Speaker 3: Randa had to readjust he was running seven different personnels

1725
01:31:29,400 --> 01:31:31,519
Speaker 3: two four, five, one, four, six, three two, I mean

1726
01:31:31,600 --> 01:31:35,479
Speaker 3: everything in the book, complex blitz scheme, that's what he

1727
01:31:35,560 --> 01:31:38,120
Speaker 3: ran in his playbook, not a vanilla three three five.

1728
01:31:38,760 --> 01:31:42,479
Speaker 3: So my question is, with a defense that is extremely

1729
01:31:42,520 --> 01:31:44,880
Speaker 3: poor and tackling, you did nothing to address that, and

1730
01:31:44,880 --> 01:31:47,679
Speaker 3: you're going to put a complex defensive playbook with blitz

1731
01:31:47,720 --> 01:31:50,599
Speaker 3: packages in there. The defensive line has been backfilled from

1732
01:31:50,600 --> 01:31:53,960
Speaker 3: the portal, but none of these were siaka ika in

1733
01:31:54,000 --> 01:31:57,639
Speaker 3: the interior. You go to the conference schedule, I mean,

1734
01:31:57,840 --> 01:32:01,360
Speaker 3: Utah's a non con They're gonna be favored over Tarleton

1735
01:32:01,400 --> 01:32:03,800
Speaker 3: and air Force. But the Big Twelve schedule is tough.

1736
01:32:03,840 --> 01:32:07,840
Speaker 3: Double digit underdogs West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State. No

1737
01:32:07,920 --> 01:32:11,200
Speaker 3: thanks under three and a half big twelve wins for me,

1738
01:32:11,600 --> 01:32:14,080
Speaker 3: I projected them at two point seven big twelve wins overall.

1739
01:32:14,160 --> 01:32:16,080
Speaker 3: I make them four and a half, which you could

1740
01:32:16,080 --> 01:32:18,640
Speaker 3: take the under on their overall win total. I'm just

1741
01:32:18,640 --> 01:32:23,519
Speaker 3: not going to mess around with Tarleton. So anyways, long story, Yeah,

1742
01:32:23,720 --> 01:32:26,280
Speaker 3: these are desperation reaches. You went and got an offensive

1743
01:32:26,320 --> 01:32:29,160
Speaker 3: coordinator that doesn't match the personnel you have. After Graham's

1744
01:32:29,200 --> 01:32:33,360
Speaker 3: played a rushing punch you in the face and your defense,

1745
01:32:33,400 --> 01:32:35,080
Speaker 3: I don't know what this is and Da Kwan Finn

1746
01:32:35,160 --> 01:32:37,639
Speaker 3: is not the answer at quarterback under under under please.

1747
01:32:38,360 --> 01:32:41,000
Speaker 1: They were super young last year. They bring back their

1748
01:32:41,000 --> 01:32:44,280
Speaker 1: old secondary, but their past he was so bad. They

1749
01:32:44,320 --> 01:32:46,920
Speaker 1: went one in seven at home, so maybe it's good

1750
01:32:46,920 --> 01:32:49,160
Speaker 1: they only have four big twelve home games. They do

1751
01:32:49,240 --> 01:32:51,680
Speaker 1: face only two of the top six in the Big

1752
01:32:51,680 --> 01:32:53,800
Speaker 1: Twelveton's Utah is a non conference game, and both of

1753
01:32:53,800 --> 01:32:55,800
Speaker 1: them are at home. Maybe that's not a good thing.

1754
01:32:56,120 --> 01:32:59,640
Speaker 1: With some of their more winnable teams they play on

1755
01:32:59,640 --> 01:33:00,120
Speaker 1: the road.

1756
01:33:00,560 --> 01:33:02,760
Speaker 3: I think one thing no part of buying Baylor. Let

1757
01:33:02,760 --> 01:33:04,120
Speaker 3: me say this, like, if you're going to be spabital

1758
01:33:04,120 --> 01:33:05,400
Speaker 3: and run the air raid and try to get into

1759
01:33:05,439 --> 01:33:08,960
Speaker 3: the team secondaries, the games that you could win have

1760
01:33:09,120 --> 01:33:12,920
Speaker 3: really strong secondaries. TCU, Colorado and Kansas. That's their strength.

1761
01:33:13,560 --> 01:33:19,320
Speaker 1: Yep, all right, let's speaking of TCU. The horn f

1762
01:33:19,320 --> 01:33:21,040
Speaker 1: I was twenty to one. You can find out they're

1763
01:33:21,040 --> 01:33:24,120
Speaker 1: over seven and a half plus one twenty. You know

1764
01:33:24,320 --> 01:33:27,080
Speaker 1: they were. I did. I did consider them as a

1765
01:33:27,080 --> 01:33:30,120
Speaker 1: potential future. I just don't know if they have the

1766
01:33:30,200 --> 01:33:33,400
Speaker 1: quarterback play. I assume it's going to be. Hoover showed

1767
01:33:33,439 --> 01:33:38,000
Speaker 1: some flashes at quarterback. Ken Seals from Vanderbilt is apparently

1768
01:33:38,680 --> 01:33:39,559
Speaker 1: in the mix there.

1769
01:33:39,960 --> 01:33:42,160
Speaker 3: Hoover didn't play in the spring. We don't know who

1770
01:33:42,320 --> 01:33:42,719
Speaker 3: is healthy.

1771
01:33:43,479 --> 01:33:48,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's definitely a big key their offensive line. I'm

1772
01:33:48,320 --> 01:33:49,840
Speaker 1: also really worried about. I mean, but basically what this

1773
01:33:49,880 --> 01:33:52,800
Speaker 1: team comes down to similar to Baylor, they want to

1774
01:33:52,840 --> 01:33:55,200
Speaker 1: be more aggressive on defense, so does TCU. They brought

1775
01:33:55,200 --> 01:33:56,960
Speaker 1: in Andy Alois. They're going to move from away from

1776
01:33:57,000 --> 01:33:59,439
Speaker 1: the three three five to a four to two five,

1777
01:33:59,479 --> 01:34:01,160
Speaker 1: try to get out to the quarterback more or something

1778
01:34:01,160 --> 01:34:04,320
Speaker 1: they couldn't do last year, try to generate more pressure.

1779
01:34:04,640 --> 01:34:09,439
Speaker 1: But quarterbacks in flux. The offensive line is definitely in flux,

1780
01:34:10,320 --> 01:34:13,360
Speaker 1: so can the transfers come together on the offensive line.

1781
01:34:13,360 --> 01:34:15,880
Speaker 1: They did go zero four and one possession games last year,

1782
01:34:15,920 --> 01:34:19,240
Speaker 1: so it's maybe a chance for some positive regression. They

1783
01:34:19,280 --> 01:34:21,280
Speaker 1: have talent on this team. It's not like Baylor, Like

1784
01:34:21,320 --> 01:34:25,800
Speaker 1: I gotta look at TCU and there's some talented pieces

1785
01:34:27,000 --> 01:34:30,000
Speaker 1: that you can get excited about. Like you know, they

1786
01:34:30,000 --> 01:34:32,719
Speaker 1: did bring plenty of power forward transfers in to help

1787
01:34:32,720 --> 01:34:37,320
Speaker 1: on the offensive line, and you know, there's definitely some

1788
01:34:37,320 --> 01:34:40,080
Speaker 1: some talent with the skill positions. If you look at

1789
01:34:40,120 --> 01:34:45,280
Speaker 1: the schedule, four Big Twelve home games only they get

1790
01:34:45,280 --> 01:34:49,160
Speaker 1: Oak State and Arizona at home. They do go to Utah,

1791
01:34:49,240 --> 01:34:54,080
Speaker 1: They avoid Iowa State, Kansas State. You know, they they

1792
01:34:54,120 --> 01:34:57,240
Speaker 1: have two they have two acc teams on the road

1793
01:34:58,040 --> 01:35:00,720
Speaker 1: in non conference play, plus Long Eye Island which is

1794
01:35:01,000 --> 01:35:03,160
Speaker 1: a little bit odd, but overall on the big twelve,

1795
01:35:03,200 --> 01:35:04,800
Speaker 1: I get six at the top eight and only one

1796
01:35:04,840 --> 01:35:07,720
Speaker 1: of the bottom three. Plus you know, two of the

1797
01:35:07,760 --> 01:35:11,080
Speaker 1: teams that you would say are the more winnable games

1798
01:35:11,120 --> 01:35:13,880
Speaker 1: on their schedule, since he and bail are both, those

1799
01:35:13,880 --> 01:35:16,719
Speaker 1: games are on the road. So I don't love the schedule,

1800
01:35:16,760 --> 01:35:20,439
Speaker 1: don't love the quarterback offensive line combination, even though there

1801
01:35:20,439 --> 01:35:24,599
Speaker 1: are some signs here if the defensive scheme change works

1802
01:35:24,600 --> 01:35:27,040
Speaker 1: to generate more pressure, there are some signs for some

1803
01:35:27,080 --> 01:35:31,880
Speaker 1: potential positive regression, and you know, kind of buying the

1804
01:35:32,040 --> 01:35:36,040
Speaker 1: dip after last year's disappointing season, but I couldn't quite

1805
01:35:36,080 --> 01:35:38,759
Speaker 1: get there on a future. What are your thoughts on TCU?

1806
01:35:39,120 --> 01:35:41,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I had problems with Hoover last year because I

1807
01:35:41,160 --> 01:35:43,000
Speaker 3: was always doing a check on what kind of covered

1808
01:35:43,040 --> 01:35:45,879
Speaker 3: she was going to face. He excelled, I believe against

1809
01:35:45,880 --> 01:35:48,160
Speaker 3: Cover one and then Cover two, three and quarters he

1810
01:35:48,320 --> 01:35:52,000
Speaker 3: was horrific. We'll see if he gets any better with that. Offensively,

1811
01:35:52,040 --> 01:35:53,960
Speaker 3: not a lot of changes here with Kendall Brawl's going on.

1812
01:35:54,640 --> 01:35:56,880
Speaker 3: There's sixty one percent on both sides of the ball

1813
01:35:57,240 --> 01:35:59,920
Speaker 3: as far as tarp, so that means that there are

1814
01:36:00,000 --> 01:36:03,240
Speaker 3: are mid there right at FBS level. But I think

1815
01:36:03,280 --> 01:36:06,880
Speaker 3: the news for me is really all on the defense. Now.

1816
01:36:07,720 --> 01:36:10,320
Speaker 3: The timing of this is just baffling to me. So

1817
01:36:10,520 --> 01:36:13,000
Speaker 3: the hiring. Joe Billespie gets fired at the end of

1818
01:36:13,040 --> 01:36:16,000
Speaker 3: last year, which two years ago, Sunny Dyke's for Mark,

1819
01:36:16,040 --> 01:36:17,720
Speaker 3: I have the best defensive quarter in the nation before

1820
01:36:17,720 --> 01:36:19,720
Speaker 3: they went to the National title game. He has a

1821
01:36:19,720 --> 01:36:23,880
Speaker 3: bad season, he gets fired. I think he's I know

1822
01:36:23,920 --> 01:36:26,639
Speaker 3: he's now coaching at a Texas high school. But Andy

1823
01:36:26,640 --> 01:36:29,320
Speaker 3: Avolos comes in with his four two five. It wasn't

1824
01:36:29,320 --> 01:36:32,200
Speaker 3: great at bois it wasn't great at Oregon. There were

1825
01:36:32,280 --> 01:36:35,559
Speaker 3: multiple issues with Andy Avolos's work at those prior stops.

1826
01:36:35,600 --> 01:36:37,360
Speaker 3: I mean, Helly was just fired from Boise State for

1827
01:36:37,439 --> 01:36:39,559
Speaker 3: reason because of that defense. They were outside the top

1828
01:36:39,560 --> 01:36:42,200
Speaker 3: one hundred tackling and finishing drives. I still don't know

1829
01:36:42,200 --> 01:36:45,639
Speaker 3: how Spencer Dangerson got promoted. But anyways, Andy Avolos is here.

1830
01:36:45,880 --> 01:36:47,720
Speaker 3: He's going to bring a four man front instead of

1831
01:36:47,720 --> 01:36:50,320
Speaker 3: the three three five that TCU has always run. They

1832
01:36:50,360 --> 01:36:54,160
Speaker 3: make that decision, and then what happens. Demonic Williams, their

1833
01:36:54,200 --> 01:36:58,320
Speaker 3: star nos tackle hits the portal, chose to ou goes

1834
01:36:58,360 --> 01:37:01,400
Speaker 3: to Oklahoma, so sided to go from a three to

1835
01:37:01,439 --> 01:37:03,840
Speaker 3: a four man front, and then your best player on

1836
01:37:03,880 --> 01:37:07,439
Speaker 3: the defensive line is the portal and leaves Houston nose

1837
01:37:07,479 --> 01:37:11,040
Speaker 3: tackle a keeam Agio Laya. He's gonna come in be

1838
01:37:11,080 --> 01:37:14,960
Speaker 3: the most important piece on the inside the defensive interior. Again,

1839
01:37:15,120 --> 01:37:16,840
Speaker 3: the secondary is going to play a lot of cover

1840
01:37:16,920 --> 01:37:19,439
Speaker 3: one like they usually do in this four two five.

1841
01:37:19,560 --> 01:37:22,200
Speaker 3: But you know they were one hundred and twenty first

1842
01:37:22,200 --> 01:37:24,320
Speaker 3: in creating havoc last year, and there's not a lot

1843
01:37:24,360 --> 01:37:27,240
Speaker 3: of havoc makers on this defense. Now there's five big

1844
01:37:27,240 --> 01:37:29,559
Speaker 3: twelve home games here. They do go to Utah, and

1845
01:37:29,600 --> 01:37:32,360
Speaker 3: they do go to arrowhead to face Kansas. I think

1846
01:37:32,400 --> 01:37:35,960
Speaker 3: the SMU game is right for them to get whooped.

1847
01:37:36,479 --> 01:37:39,919
Speaker 3: I mean ran out of the building up in Dallas.

1848
01:37:40,520 --> 01:37:43,160
Speaker 3: And the reason is because TCU's got to play UCF

1849
01:37:43,200 --> 01:37:45,479
Speaker 3: the week before and then they're gonna get Kansas the

1850
01:37:45,520 --> 01:37:48,519
Speaker 3: week after. So it's a big big twelve sandwich spot

1851
01:37:48,520 --> 01:37:50,760
Speaker 3: where Sunny Dykes has already beaten SMU twice since he

1852
01:37:50,920 --> 01:37:53,720
Speaker 3: left there. He's got his revenge. Well, now it's SMU's turn.

1853
01:37:53,760 --> 01:37:56,919
Speaker 3: And guess what SMUs off of buy when they host TCU.

1854
01:37:57,320 --> 01:37:58,920
Speaker 3: I've been looking for a game of the year number

1855
01:37:58,920 --> 01:38:00,759
Speaker 3: on that, but I haven't been able to. If it pops,

1856
01:38:00,920 --> 01:38:03,920
Speaker 3: we're all in on SMU that week. The trench is

1857
01:38:04,000 --> 01:38:06,599
Speaker 3: just populated with new names, the defensive coordinator that struggled

1858
01:38:06,600 --> 01:38:09,240
Speaker 3: to multiple spots, tougher schedule, you think, forget it. I

1859
01:38:09,320 --> 01:38:12,200
Speaker 3: am well below what their win total is, so give

1860
01:38:12,200 --> 01:38:13,880
Speaker 3: me under seven and a half. I know it's just

1861
01:38:13,920 --> 01:38:16,160
Speaker 3: at one forty, but I would take an alternate under

1862
01:38:16,200 --> 01:38:18,040
Speaker 3: six and a half or under seven. So that's how

1863
01:38:18,120 --> 01:38:20,640
Speaker 3: much I don't like them.

1864
01:38:20,840 --> 01:38:23,280
Speaker 1: All right, Now, let's close things up. We'll do rapid

1865
01:38:23,320 --> 01:38:28,000
Speaker 1: fire for the final four teams, the basement dwellers, teams

1866
01:38:28,000 --> 01:38:30,320
Speaker 1: that you would I think you would agree I have

1867
01:38:30,840 --> 01:38:34,000
Speaker 1: no chance to win this conference. I think you could

1868
01:38:34,000 --> 01:38:37,880
Speaker 1: throw Baylor in there too. But since the Arizona State

1869
01:38:38,280 --> 01:38:41,720
Speaker 1: BYU and Houston, since he is the best you find

1870
01:38:41,720 --> 01:38:45,280
Speaker 1: out there's eighty to one Arizona State, one twenty five

1871
01:38:45,320 --> 01:38:47,240
Speaker 1: to one BYU, one hundred and fifty to one Houston,

1872
01:38:47,240 --> 01:38:51,880
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty to one Houston. Let's start with Houston.

1873
01:38:52,000 --> 01:38:57,280
Speaker 1: Over three and a half minus one fifty is one

1874
01:38:57,320 --> 01:39:02,439
Speaker 1: of the numbers out there really Fritz comes in. Uh,

1875
01:39:03,560 --> 01:39:05,320
Speaker 1: I don't think that this roster is ready to really

1876
01:39:05,360 --> 01:39:09,960
Speaker 1: make noise to where in the state where Dana left them.

1877
01:39:10,320 --> 01:39:15,400
Speaker 1: I think they probably end up three and nine, four eight.

1878
01:39:16,360 --> 01:39:21,600
Speaker 1: They went four and eight last year. But it's a

1879
01:39:21,680 --> 01:39:24,040
Speaker 1: vicious schedule, only four big twelve home games. Ive it.

1880
01:39:24,080 --> 01:39:26,920
Speaker 1: It's one of the five artist schedules in the country.

1881
01:39:27,000 --> 01:39:29,320
Speaker 1: I mean they start off at home against UNLV that

1882
01:39:29,400 --> 01:39:32,080
Speaker 1: number is coming down. They're what a two and a

1883
01:39:32,120 --> 01:39:33,800
Speaker 1: half point favor you don't win that game. Then you

1884
01:39:33,840 --> 01:39:37,719
Speaker 1: go to Oklahoma, you play Rice, it was a wild

1885
01:39:37,760 --> 01:39:40,280
Speaker 1: game last year. Then you're at Sincy. You know, all

1886
01:39:40,320 --> 01:39:42,360
Speaker 1: these games that these teams that you should beat, they're

1887
01:39:42,400 --> 01:39:45,519
Speaker 1: on the road, like at since the at TCU, because

1888
01:39:45,520 --> 01:39:48,360
Speaker 1: you play Utah Kansas State at home? Like, where are

1889
01:39:48,360 --> 01:39:52,000
Speaker 1: the wins here? Hard for me to find them? Would

1890
01:39:52,040 --> 01:39:55,599
Speaker 1: lean under with Houston too many questions. It'll take it'll

1891
01:39:55,600 --> 01:39:57,880
Speaker 1: take Fritz a little bit of time. I don't think

1892
01:39:57,920 --> 01:40:00,639
Speaker 1: it's a year one bump. Any quick thought on Houston.

1893
01:40:01,000 --> 01:40:03,599
Speaker 3: Yeah, Willie Fritz has improved every team that he's been at.

1894
01:40:04,160 --> 01:40:06,559
Speaker 3: You know, he had Sam Houston go from like a

1895
01:40:06,560 --> 01:40:09,280
Speaker 3: one win team the FCS Championship Georgia Southern improved, two

1896
01:40:09,360 --> 01:40:10,000
Speaker 3: lane improved.

1897
01:40:10,600 --> 01:40:10,680
Speaker 1: Uh.

1898
01:40:10,800 --> 01:40:13,000
Speaker 3: He has never made a team worse in the first year,

1899
01:40:13,040 --> 01:40:15,799
Speaker 3: so that he does have that going for him. Massive

1900
01:40:15,920 --> 01:40:17,720
Speaker 3: steam on four and a half down to three and

1901
01:40:17,760 --> 01:40:20,120
Speaker 3: a half in the market now, I wouldn't be surprised

1902
01:40:20,160 --> 01:40:22,080
Speaker 3: if there's a three here in mid August coming up

1903
01:40:22,080 --> 01:40:25,040
Speaker 3: where we could do a little bit of damage, because

1904
01:40:25,040 --> 01:40:27,000
Speaker 3: I do like Donovan Smith. I think he's perfect for

1905
01:40:27,040 --> 01:40:29,479
Speaker 3: the run concepts that Fritz has. He's already got six

1906
01:40:29,560 --> 01:40:33,719
Speaker 3: hundred rushing yards last year Scramble designed. It's an offense

1907
01:40:33,760 --> 01:40:36,320
Speaker 3: that really was kind of made for him. Tang Jenkins

1908
01:40:36,360 --> 01:40:37,559
Speaker 3: got a way he's so high.

1909
01:40:37,439 --> 01:40:39,599
Speaker 1: Variant, so he can pull up. He gets hot when

1910
01:40:39,640 --> 01:40:42,640
Speaker 1: he gets red hot in the game he is so

1911
01:40:42,920 --> 01:40:45,840
Speaker 1: hot and so pinpoint and then health games where he's

1912
01:40:45,880 --> 01:40:48,920
Speaker 1: just off but he can pull off an upset or two.

1913
01:40:49,320 --> 01:40:51,320
Speaker 3: He fits the system that Michael Pratt's been running the

1914
01:40:51,360 --> 01:40:53,599
Speaker 3: last couple of years. So you look at Tang Jenkins

1915
01:40:53,640 --> 01:40:55,559
Speaker 3: to get his seventh year. Waivery has two thousand snaps

1916
01:40:55,600 --> 01:40:58,639
Speaker 3: at right guard, so there's a little bit of you know, move,

1917
01:40:58,640 --> 01:40:59,920
Speaker 3: They're gonna be able to move the trench a little

1918
01:40:59,920 --> 01:41:03,320
Speaker 3: bit on some teams. Now shiel Wood, who's a defensive coordinator,

1919
01:41:03,560 --> 01:41:05,000
Speaker 3: is going to be a head coach here like maybe

1920
01:41:05,040 --> 01:41:07,040
Speaker 3: next year, Like he is the hot name coming up

1921
01:41:07,040 --> 01:41:10,400
Speaker 3: in the market previously with Troy, last year with Tulane

1922
01:41:10,680 --> 01:41:14,360
Speaker 3: top twenty five and rushing defense from a success rate perspective,

1923
01:41:14,360 --> 01:41:17,439
Speaker 3: the last couple of years, it both stops. So I

1924
01:41:17,600 --> 01:41:19,720
Speaker 3: like it from that point. Long term, I don't think

1925
01:41:19,720 --> 01:41:21,719
Speaker 3: Willie's going to get him any lower than three wins.

1926
01:41:21,760 --> 01:41:24,000
Speaker 3: But you're right, where do they win? Like, where do

1927
01:41:24,040 --> 01:41:27,080
Speaker 3: they win these games? Houston's going to be favored over UNLV,

1928
01:41:27,200 --> 01:41:29,760
Speaker 3: Rice and Baylor. Sad thing is I love UNLV and Rice.

1929
01:41:29,800 --> 01:41:32,560
Speaker 3: This year they're in coin flip games against Syntony and

1930
01:41:32,640 --> 01:41:37,639
Speaker 3: BYU and KU and Arizona are favorites. It's like you said,

1931
01:41:37,680 --> 01:41:41,400
Speaker 3: they're going to show up against Arizona, Kansas, UNLV, Rice

1932
01:41:41,479 --> 01:41:43,639
Speaker 3: or Baylor, and Donovan Smith is going to ball out

1933
01:41:43,680 --> 01:41:46,320
Speaker 3: and take over a game. I think over three and

1934
01:41:46,360 --> 01:41:48,240
Speaker 3: a half is the play, but because the market's going

1935
01:41:48,280 --> 01:41:50,920
Speaker 3: the other way at three, it's gone way too far.

1936
01:41:51,200 --> 01:41:53,479
Speaker 3: But there are a lot of I don't know, I

1937
01:41:53,479 --> 01:41:56,920
Speaker 3: hate to call him out right, there's touts. There's others

1938
01:41:57,000 --> 01:41:59,960
Speaker 3: people that aren't us. They are banging on this under

1939
01:42:00,160 --> 01:42:01,800
Speaker 3: and I'm telling you, at three and a half, it's

1940
01:42:01,800 --> 01:42:04,080
Speaker 3: gone pretty far. At three it is way too far.

1941
01:42:04,240 --> 01:42:06,040
Speaker 3: So I say sit back for a few weeks and

1942
01:42:06,600 --> 01:42:08,240
Speaker 3: if you want to piece over, three is the number

1943
01:42:08,240 --> 01:42:09,080
Speaker 3: I would definitely buy.

1944
01:42:10,720 --> 01:42:14,840
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to BYU over four and

1945
01:42:14,880 --> 01:42:17,679
Speaker 1: a half plus one ten is the best you can

1946
01:42:18,200 --> 01:42:20,080
Speaker 1: find out there. I just don't think that they're ready.

1947
01:42:20,240 --> 01:42:22,720
Speaker 1: Their roster is ready for power for football from a

1948
01:42:22,760 --> 01:42:25,960
Speaker 1: depth perspective, don't think that the I just I don't

1949
01:42:25,960 --> 01:42:31,360
Speaker 1: see it here with with BYU. What say you big

1950
01:42:31,479 --> 01:42:34,120
Speaker 1: physical rabbit? Yeah, by you knew coming in.

1951
01:42:34,240 --> 01:42:36,920
Speaker 3: Hey, we're gonna show any mercy and you just see

1952
01:42:36,960 --> 01:42:39,840
Speaker 3: it flying around the field every single time. Oh my god,

1953
01:42:40,040 --> 01:42:42,599
Speaker 3: you made the fount of the Sun and I'm holy straight.

1954
01:42:42,400 --> 01:42:43,920
Speaker 1: It on that. Yeah.

1955
01:42:44,000 --> 01:42:46,479
Speaker 3: Project three point eight here. TJ. Wood joins as the

1956
01:42:46,520 --> 01:42:49,400
Speaker 3: offensive line coach from Georgia Southern. He's got to improve

1957
01:42:49,479 --> 01:42:52,479
Speaker 3: BYU's time. And the trench has been such an issue

1958
01:42:52,520 --> 01:42:54,160
Speaker 3: stuck for years now, and they only have eighty eight

1959
01:42:54,200 --> 01:42:57,120
Speaker 3: starts returning on the offensive line, and you know, Gary

1960
01:42:57,160 --> 01:42:59,479
Speaker 3: Bohannon's back in the Big twelve. McKay hill steads here,

1961
01:42:59,560 --> 01:43:01,040
Speaker 3: Jake Red if he is here, they're going to compete

1962
01:43:01,040 --> 01:43:03,720
Speaker 3: for quarterback. Not a lot now, Jay Hill coming in

1963
01:43:03,720 --> 01:43:05,920
Speaker 3: from Weaver. That was a really good movie to go

1964
01:43:05,920 --> 01:43:08,280
Speaker 3: get him. The three three five improved modestly, but they're

1965
01:43:08,320 --> 01:43:10,800
Speaker 3: still outside the top fifty and defensive finishing drives or

1966
01:43:10,800 --> 01:43:13,920
Speaker 3: outside the top eighty and defensive quality drive, which means

1967
01:43:13,960 --> 01:43:16,559
Speaker 3: teams are still getting into scoring position. Havoc is the

1968
01:43:16,560 --> 01:43:19,479
Speaker 3: focus this year. They're not ready from the trenches now,

1969
01:43:19,520 --> 01:43:20,120
Speaker 3: Tyler Batty.

1970
01:43:20,560 --> 01:43:22,679
Speaker 1: They were dead last in the country in sacks and also

1971
01:43:22,680 --> 01:43:24,880
Speaker 1: couldn't defend the run. Not a great com They're not

1972
01:43:24,920 --> 01:43:25,960
Speaker 1: ready Under four and a half.

1973
01:43:25,960 --> 01:43:26,960
Speaker 3: I project three point eight.

1974
01:43:27,640 --> 01:43:30,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I met three point nine, so I would agree

1975
01:43:30,880 --> 01:43:31,360
Speaker 1: with you there.

1976
01:43:31,880 --> 01:43:33,880
Speaker 4: They feel like they got their main car taken last year.

1977
01:43:34,280 --> 01:43:38,800
Speaker 1: They won the back. Can have to earn it. Arizona

1978
01:43:38,880 --> 01:43:42,720
Speaker 1: State over four and a half plus one forty two,

1979
01:43:42,920 --> 01:43:45,840
Speaker 1: I will say in defensive BYU and Arizona State. Both

1980
01:43:45,840 --> 01:43:48,240
Speaker 1: those teams had a horrible injury luck last year. Arizona

1981
01:43:48,280 --> 01:43:52,040
Speaker 1: State in the offensive line quarterback position, they were also

1982
01:43:52,080 --> 01:43:54,920
Speaker 1: one to three and one possession games. Dillingham year two,

1983
01:43:55,439 --> 01:43:59,559
Speaker 1: new offensive coordinator comes in brutal league draw. I mean

1984
01:43:59,560 --> 01:44:01,760
Speaker 1: they have a really tough schedule and only four PAC

1985
01:44:01,800 --> 01:44:05,360
Speaker 1: twelve home games, more travel, A ton of transfers on

1986
01:44:05,400 --> 01:44:08,280
Speaker 1: defense could have I think eleven transfers on They're too

1987
01:44:08,320 --> 01:44:13,760
Speaker 1: deep on defense. I project with Arizona State, I'm at

1988
01:44:13,840 --> 01:44:16,000
Speaker 1: three six. Where are you at?

1989
01:44:16,320 --> 01:44:21,040
Speaker 3: I'm in the twos, twos, I'm in the twos. I mean, look,

1990
01:44:21,080 --> 01:44:24,320
Speaker 3: there's a lot going on here, you know, like Rashada

1991
01:44:24,400 --> 01:44:28,439
Speaker 3: leaves wide receiver, Elijah Badger goes to Florida, Sam Levin,

1992
01:44:28,520 --> 01:44:32,000
Speaker 3: Jeff Simms, our own, Jeff Sims turnover machine from Nebraska

1993
01:44:32,000 --> 01:44:33,720
Speaker 3: and Georgia Tech are going to compete at quarterback. And

1994
01:44:33,720 --> 01:44:37,840
Speaker 3: who's my offensive coordinator here? Stuck Marcus Arroyo, who is

1995
01:44:38,240 --> 01:44:41,320
Speaker 3: horrific at UNLV and refuse to let Justin Herbert pass

1996
01:44:41,360 --> 01:44:43,040
Speaker 3: in first and second down when he was the offensive

1997
01:44:43,040 --> 01:44:46,040
Speaker 3: coordinator Oregon. I do not believe in his outdated system.

1998
01:44:46,479 --> 01:44:49,000
Speaker 3: I don't care who wins quarterback because it is a

1999
01:44:49,040 --> 01:44:51,719
Speaker 3: bad system. You're gonna end up running the camp Scapeo

2000
01:44:51,880 --> 01:44:55,040
Speaker 3: wildcat like there was last year. He prefers outside zone.

2001
01:44:55,120 --> 01:44:57,160
Speaker 3: They don't have the offensive line to even run that

2002
01:44:57,560 --> 01:45:01,760
Speaker 3: limited experience in both garden tackle position, I don't even

2003
01:45:01,760 --> 01:45:03,920
Speaker 3: know where to bottom five ranks and quality drive. I

2004
01:45:04,000 --> 01:45:07,400
Speaker 3: mean the Utah and Kansas State, they start off with

2005
01:45:07,439 --> 01:45:09,680
Speaker 3: them early in the season. Both Utah and Kansas State

2006
01:45:09,720 --> 01:45:11,920
Speaker 3: are coming off of a bye. I mean, how mean

2007
01:45:11,960 --> 01:45:14,080
Speaker 3: are these schedule makers against Arizona State. They're gonna be

2008
01:45:14,120 --> 01:45:17,240
Speaker 3: favored just once that comes against Wyoming. Have you seen

2009
01:45:17,240 --> 01:45:21,880
Speaker 3: Wyoming's quarterback Evan Savaboda. He's wearing Josh Allen's number and

2010
01:45:21,920 --> 01:45:24,040
Speaker 3: he's going to take advantage of this Arizona State defensive

2011
01:45:24,040 --> 01:45:25,920
Speaker 3: line too. I think the numbers right against Wyoming, but

2012
01:45:26,600 --> 01:45:29,200
Speaker 3: this is not a Wyoming team that is reeling from

2013
01:45:29,240 --> 01:45:31,400
Speaker 3: the loss of Craig Bullet head coach. So under four

2014
01:45:31,400 --> 01:45:34,360
Speaker 3: and a half, I take under four, I take under

2015
01:45:34,400 --> 01:45:35,800
Speaker 3: three and a half. I don't care where it goes.

2016
01:45:36,160 --> 01:45:38,400
Speaker 1: I guess I would lean under. But I'm definitely not

2017
01:45:38,520 --> 01:45:42,120
Speaker 1: as low on Arizona State as you. But that's schedule

2018
01:45:42,200 --> 01:45:43,880
Speaker 1: and just the roster overall.

2019
01:45:44,320 --> 01:45:46,120
Speaker 3: You're gonna show up on the podcast and tell me

2020
01:45:46,120 --> 01:45:47,400
Speaker 3: you're going to back Marcus.

2021
01:45:47,120 --> 01:45:48,519
Speaker 1: Arroyo probably one week.

2022
01:45:50,560 --> 01:45:52,599
Speaker 3: Trash trash segment coming.

2023
01:45:54,680 --> 01:45:58,200
Speaker 1: Since he over under by over five and a half

2024
01:45:58,240 --> 01:46:00,880
Speaker 1: even money, I thought I was gonna like this over

2025
01:46:02,000 --> 01:46:06,559
Speaker 1: they were horrible in one possession games, but losing Briggs

2026
01:46:06,600 --> 01:46:09,680
Speaker 1: and now probably Corleone on the defensive line. I'm not

2027
01:46:09,800 --> 01:46:12,600
Speaker 1: wowed by their linebacker group. They lost a lot in

2028
01:46:12,640 --> 01:46:17,200
Speaker 1: the secondary. Not wild by who they brought in the offense,

2029
01:46:17,320 --> 01:46:20,080
Speaker 1: like who's the quarterback throw the ball? Like, you know,

2030
01:46:20,120 --> 01:46:21,680
Speaker 1: the run games is gonna be solid. They bring back

2031
01:46:21,680 --> 01:46:24,519
Speaker 1: all five offensive linemen. But after digg into this team,

2032
01:46:24,520 --> 01:46:28,200
Speaker 1: I've downgraded them a bit from where I initially had them.

2033
01:46:28,560 --> 01:46:30,080
Speaker 1: You know why I thought I was gonna like them.

2034
01:46:30,080 --> 01:46:32,240
Speaker 1: They were unlucky one such games they kind of I

2035
01:46:32,280 --> 01:46:33,559
Speaker 1: just don't know if they have the roster of the

2036
01:46:33,600 --> 01:46:36,920
Speaker 1: depth and they're really ready yet. But on the surface,

2037
01:46:36,960 --> 01:46:39,720
Speaker 1: it's like you could they could start four and oh,

2038
01:46:40,120 --> 01:46:42,519
Speaker 1: like they have talsand pit at home at mime of

2039
01:46:42,560 --> 01:46:45,200
Speaker 1: Ohio Revenge there they asto like a block field goal.

2040
01:46:45,240 --> 01:46:48,000
Speaker 1: Then Houston at home, you're like, oh, you start four

2041
01:46:48,040 --> 01:46:50,599
Speaker 1: and oh your win totals five and a half even money.

2042
01:46:50,960 --> 01:46:53,360
Speaker 1: Then from there it's like at Texas Tech at UCF,

2043
01:46:53,600 --> 01:46:55,320
Speaker 1: you know, you get Arizona State at home too, just

2044
01:46:55,360 --> 01:46:58,599
Speaker 1: talked about them so like you could talk yourself into

2045
01:46:58,600 --> 01:47:03,280
Speaker 1: them being five and two. And then you go to Colorado.

2046
01:47:03,360 --> 01:47:07,240
Speaker 1: You got West Virginia at home, at Iowa State at

2047
01:47:07,320 --> 01:47:09,639
Speaker 1: Kansas State, and TCU at home. So there's winnable games

2048
01:47:09,640 --> 01:47:14,360
Speaker 1: here for sure. I'm not I'm not one of the

2049
01:47:14,360 --> 01:47:17,519
Speaker 1: reasons why I'm not playing this under but my numbers

2050
01:47:17,560 --> 01:47:21,280
Speaker 1: after adjusting just don't really love this team. How about you.

2051
01:47:21,680 --> 01:47:23,360
Speaker 3: I may it directly on five and a half, which

2052
01:47:23,360 --> 01:47:25,960
Speaker 3: is where the market is, but I make a conference

2053
01:47:26,000 --> 01:47:29,080
Speaker 3: win total at three point three. I do like the

2054
01:47:29,160 --> 01:47:31,479
Speaker 3: higher defensive coordinator Tyson beld is going to come from

2055
01:47:31,520 --> 01:47:33,880
Speaker 3: Iowa State. He was the linebacker coach there. He will

2056
01:47:33,920 --> 01:47:36,400
Speaker 3: implement the three three five stack. I'm not sure that's

2057
01:47:36,439 --> 01:47:39,160
Speaker 3: going to catch on so fast, but I think that's

2058
01:47:39,160 --> 01:47:43,080
Speaker 3: a great addition. Really. The announcement of Dante Corleon, the

2059
01:47:43,120 --> 01:47:45,880
Speaker 3: godfather of this team. He's been there forever since the pandemic,

2060
01:47:46,360 --> 01:47:50,479
Speaker 3: first team all big twelve blood clots. Not sure when

2061
01:47:50,479 --> 01:47:51,920
Speaker 3: he's going to come back. Now, we've had this in

2062
01:47:51,920 --> 01:47:55,320
Speaker 3: college football before, and all of a sudden the players

2063
01:47:55,360 --> 01:47:57,680
Speaker 3: show up, so you know he could come back right

2064
01:47:57,680 --> 01:47:59,559
Speaker 3: after we had done completing this podcast. But that's the

2065
01:47:59,600 --> 01:48:01,960
Speaker 3: biggest thing on defense that you need to pay attention to.

2066
01:48:02,960 --> 01:48:05,160
Speaker 3: I mean, the offense has Tyron Smith. We loved him

2067
01:48:05,160 --> 01:48:07,519
Speaker 3: at UTEP, one of the most explosives in the G five.

2068
01:48:07,640 --> 01:48:09,600
Speaker 3: Xavier Henderson's there. He had ninety eight targets and he

2069
01:48:09,640 --> 01:48:12,360
Speaker 3: averaged two yards per out run. But is Brendan Soarsby

2070
01:48:12,360 --> 01:48:13,920
Speaker 3: from Indiana going to get it there? I mean he

2071
01:48:13,960 --> 01:48:15,880
Speaker 3: had a fifteen to five big time throw to turnover

2072
01:48:15,920 --> 01:48:18,760
Speaker 3: worthy play ratio in Indiana. But you know, we'll see.

2073
01:48:18,760 --> 01:48:21,400
Speaker 3: And Kiner had twenty six rushers that went over ten

2074
01:48:21,479 --> 01:48:24,439
Speaker 3: yards and created fifty three missed tackles. There's goodness here.

2075
01:48:25,479 --> 01:48:27,960
Speaker 3: But how many times did you and I bet them

2076
01:48:27,960 --> 01:48:30,320
Speaker 3: on the spread last year? And they mistake themselves out

2077
01:48:30,360 --> 01:48:32,799
Speaker 3: of our covers? It just week after week after week.

2078
01:48:33,360 --> 01:48:36,040
Speaker 3: So for me, I make the schedule, I make the

2079
01:48:36,080 --> 01:48:39,360
Speaker 3: conference win three point three. The number out there is

2080
01:48:39,600 --> 01:48:41,519
Speaker 3: two and a half, and you say, where are they

2081
01:48:41,520 --> 01:48:44,519
Speaker 3: going to get their wins? It's a great situational spot

2082
01:48:44,560 --> 01:48:46,360
Speaker 3: against UCF. They're going to come out of a hangover

2083
01:48:46,320 --> 01:48:48,439
Speaker 3: from Florida. Since he's going to be favored by a

2084
01:48:48,479 --> 01:48:51,000
Speaker 3: TV or more in three games thousand Arizona State pitt.

2085
01:48:51,040 --> 01:48:54,200
Speaker 3: Now Arizona State only matters for the conference. Now when

2086
01:48:54,240 --> 01:48:56,880
Speaker 3: you look at that, after Houston Arizona State at home,

2087
01:48:56,920 --> 01:49:00,680
Speaker 3: they need to win against Colorado Texas Tech TCU. I

2088
01:49:00,760 --> 01:49:02,920
Speaker 3: wouldn't blame somebody if they took an over five and

2089
01:49:02,960 --> 01:49:04,920
Speaker 3: a half and then used games towards the end of

2090
01:49:04,920 --> 01:49:07,519
Speaker 3: the season like West Virginia and TCU and the November

2091
01:49:07,560 --> 01:49:10,120
Speaker 3: portion to hedge out of their win total. It's a

2092
01:49:10,160 --> 01:49:14,040
Speaker 3: totally It's a schedule that you have, what three of

2093
01:49:14,080 --> 01:49:15,920
Speaker 3: the last five games, you're gonna be able to hedge

2094
01:49:15,920 --> 01:49:17,800
Speaker 3: out of a win total, whether you go over or under.

2095
01:49:18,360 --> 01:49:20,120
Speaker 3: But I love the conference win total over two and

2096
01:49:20,160 --> 01:49:21,519
Speaker 3: a half. They can easily get there.

2097
01:49:22,400 --> 01:49:24,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is the team I admitted that I need

2098
01:49:24,280 --> 01:49:26,280
Speaker 1: to dig more into. I mean, I probably penalized them

2099
01:49:26,280 --> 01:49:30,600
Speaker 1: too much after digging over the past week. I'm not

2100
01:49:30,640 --> 01:49:34,880
Speaker 1: going to get there on and over, but I you know,

2101
01:49:34,920 --> 01:49:36,400
Speaker 1: and I admittedly I don't. I don't think I'm going

2102
01:49:36,439 --> 01:49:39,759
Speaker 1: to play this under. But I mean, look this defense.

2103
01:49:41,280 --> 01:49:43,200
Speaker 1: Look how much of a step back they've taken over

2104
01:49:43,240 --> 01:49:45,280
Speaker 1: the past couple of years. With everything that they've lost

2105
01:49:45,600 --> 01:49:48,680
Speaker 1: in the secondary now defensive line, it's just not the

2106
01:49:48,720 --> 01:49:55,439
Speaker 1: same scary unit especially Yeah, and that's a big loss.

2107
01:49:55,720 --> 01:50:01,120
Speaker 1: And the quarterback. I'm I'm not sold on Sowersby. I mean,

2108
01:50:01,160 --> 01:50:03,400
Speaker 1: there's a couple other guys that are maybe in the mix.

2109
01:50:03,439 --> 01:50:05,960
Speaker 1: I assume it's going to be Soarsby and yeah, I mean,

2110
01:50:06,400 --> 01:50:09,880
Speaker 1: the running game should be solid. The offensive line returns

2111
01:50:09,920 --> 01:50:11,720
Speaker 1: like everyone returns. The guards are pretty good, but it's

2112
01:50:11,760 --> 01:50:15,320
Speaker 1: not like this great offensive line. Yeah, I just think

2113
01:50:15,360 --> 01:50:18,639
Speaker 1: that the guys that they've replaced, other guys with the past,

2114
01:50:18,720 --> 01:50:20,800
Speaker 1: the talent level that they've replaced some of the losts

2115
01:50:20,800 --> 01:50:24,120
Speaker 1: on defense. It's a big, big drop off for Cinci.

2116
01:50:24,160 --> 01:50:27,400
Speaker 1: But it's definitely a team I'm struggling to price. They

2117
01:50:27,400 --> 01:50:29,800
Speaker 1: were definitely unlucky last year, but they also just like

2118
01:50:30,120 --> 01:50:32,960
Speaker 1: consistently melted down in second half. I think that maybe

2119
01:50:32,960 --> 01:50:37,120
Speaker 1: speaks to some of the depth issues that I'm not

2120
01:50:37,160 --> 01:50:38,880
Speaker 1: a big Saturfield guy either, You know that, right.

2121
01:50:38,960 --> 01:50:42,200
Speaker 3: Let me say this. I saw Sadderfield have lunch by

2122
01:50:42,280 --> 01:50:45,240
Speaker 3: himself in Vegas and Allegiance at a table in the

2123
01:50:45,280 --> 01:50:48,040
Speaker 3: middle of the media, nobody bothering him, nobody talking to them.

2124
01:50:48,200 --> 01:50:50,479
Speaker 3: When these coaches come together these media days, it's like

2125
01:50:50,520 --> 01:50:55,760
Speaker 3: a big pow wow knuckles golf rounds wives Sadderfield is

2126
01:50:55,880 --> 01:50:59,479
Speaker 3: not liked among his peers. Whatsoever does that play a factor?

2127
01:50:59,640 --> 01:51:02,400
Speaker 3: And then covering these spreads because stuck I can't. I

2128
01:51:02,439 --> 01:51:04,280
Speaker 3: feel like we had at least four bets on Cincy

2129
01:51:04,280 --> 01:51:06,280
Speaker 3: in the middle of the year last year and something

2130
01:51:06,280 --> 01:51:09,160
Speaker 3: happened in the second half where we lost against spread.

2131
01:51:09,760 --> 01:51:12,479
Speaker 3: And if there is a true I don't like Scott

2132
01:51:12,560 --> 01:51:15,160
Speaker 3: Saderfield and a head coach's head, I'd have a problem

2133
01:51:15,200 --> 01:51:16,040
Speaker 3: back in them week to week.

2134
01:51:16,520 --> 01:51:18,400
Speaker 1: Yep. Well, I'm glad we did this because I do

2135
01:51:18,560 --> 01:51:21,479
Speaker 1: I need. I definitely need to dig in a little

2136
01:51:21,760 --> 01:51:25,160
Speaker 1: further on Sincy. But let's let's wrap things up. We

2137
01:51:25,280 --> 01:51:31,160
Speaker 1: got through all sixteen teams. I think just a consensus

2138
01:51:31,160 --> 01:51:34,280
Speaker 1: future Iowa State. What could go wrong? At least it's

2139
01:51:34,320 --> 01:51:36,880
Speaker 1: not like a make the College Ball playoff for a

2140
01:51:36,960 --> 01:51:39,600
Speaker 1: national title future like I did one good three or

2141
01:51:39,640 --> 01:51:42,800
Speaker 1: four years ago. We both like Iowa State better than

2142
01:51:43,560 --> 01:51:45,400
Speaker 1: ten to one. You can find an eleven to one

2143
01:51:45,439 --> 01:51:54,000
Speaker 1: out there, and I'll say unders Colorado, West, Virginia, Arizona

2144
01:51:54,760 --> 01:51:58,000
Speaker 1: or my three favorite. You agree on Iowa State as

2145
01:51:58,040 --> 01:51:59,759
Speaker 1: a future anything else you want to add.

2146
01:52:00,400 --> 01:52:03,960
Speaker 3: I definitely think UCF joins them in the in the

2147
01:52:04,040 --> 01:52:07,719
Speaker 3: championship game, absolutely one of my most fun favorite futures

2148
01:52:07,760 --> 01:52:11,599
Speaker 3: to watch. But pricing perspective, it's not good. So determine

2149
01:52:11,600 --> 01:52:13,559
Speaker 3: there how much you think this team can beat the

2150
01:52:13,640 --> 01:52:17,320
Speaker 3: excel sheet and the mathematics unders. Listen, the bad teams

2151
01:52:17,320 --> 01:52:19,120
Speaker 3: are going to go under. Baylor's going to go under.

2152
01:52:19,479 --> 01:52:21,479
Speaker 3: I think Randall will be fired before Pittman. We'll get

2153
01:52:21,479 --> 01:52:25,200
Speaker 3: to that SEC review. I think Baylor's in trouble. Arizona

2154
01:52:25,240 --> 01:52:27,920
Speaker 3: State's in trouble. I don't like what TCU has on offense,

2155
01:52:27,920 --> 01:52:29,400
Speaker 3: and they're going to a four man front. Can't do it.

2156
01:52:29,439 --> 01:52:32,160
Speaker 3: I like the under there too. But when you look

2157
01:52:32,200 --> 01:52:34,080
Speaker 3: at the teams that I love, I do like West

2158
01:52:34,160 --> 01:52:36,479
Speaker 3: Virginia game of the year against pitt really bad mismatch.

2159
01:52:36,479 --> 01:52:39,400
Speaker 3: We'll talk about that on the ACC podcast. Kansas State

2160
01:52:39,640 --> 01:52:42,160
Speaker 3: loves to run Kansas out of the building. There's no

2161
01:52:42,200 --> 01:52:44,120
Speaker 3: way Kansas defense is going to be able to stop that.

2162
01:52:45,439 --> 01:52:49,479
Speaker 3: You know, and Colorado back them early, fade them late

2163
01:52:49,560 --> 01:52:52,519
Speaker 3: whenever that depth on the roster starts to be a problem.

2164
01:52:52,800 --> 01:52:55,200
Speaker 3: That's really best summary of Big twelve that I can

2165
01:52:55,240 --> 01:52:55,640
Speaker 3: come up with.

2166
01:52:56,600 --> 01:52:58,720
Speaker 1: It should be a wild year. A lot of these

2167
01:52:58,720 --> 01:53:02,519
Speaker 1: teams are close. I think we both agree to top

2168
01:53:02,600 --> 01:53:05,599
Speaker 1: Utah Kansas State, probably not much value. Bottom of this

2169
01:53:05,680 --> 01:53:08,400
Speaker 1: league doesn't really have a chance if you really like

2170
01:53:08,479 --> 01:53:11,439
Speaker 1: one of these teams in kind of that three to

2171
01:53:11,520 --> 01:53:15,200
Speaker 1: four to eight to nine range, it's a good fun

2172
01:53:15,280 --> 01:53:17,519
Speaker 1: league to take a shot on for a future. This

2173
01:53:17,640 --> 01:53:20,040
Speaker 1: year should be wild, come down to just a lot

2174
01:53:20,040 --> 01:53:22,680
Speaker 1: of variance and injury luck. But it's good to be

2175
01:53:22,760 --> 01:53:26,799
Speaker 1: back shaking the cob webs off. We will have plenty

2176
01:53:26,840 --> 01:53:32,200
Speaker 1: more episodes coming out. Grind has already begun. But thanks

2177
01:53:32,240 --> 01:53:34,240
Speaker 1: everyone for tuning in, Thanks for watching on YouTube. Make

2178
01:53:34,240 --> 01:53:36,880
Speaker 1: sure you subscribe if you're listening at home. Really helps

2179
01:53:36,920 --> 01:53:39,760
Speaker 1: us out. Now looking forward to a very profitable year.

2180
01:53:40,520 --> 01:53:42,920
Speaker 1: We'll catch all later. Cheers, he's out.

2181
01:53:52,800 --> 01:53:57,360
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or

2182
01:53:57,360 --> 01:54:00,679
Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Was available

2183
01:54:00,760 --> 01:54:02,759
Speaker 4: twenty four seven at one eight hundred.

2184
01:54:02,840 --> 01:54:03,240
Speaker 1: Gambler