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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast PODCA All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go spreading the court. Ten seconds of matings.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna just go show me under the basket. Under

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Speaker 2: the basket, it's.

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Speaker 3: The cruit for the wind God.

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Speaker 4: A miracle.

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Speaker 2: I chuck the water hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 2: Welcome back to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast, presented

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Speaker 2: by bet MGM. Here live on the Action Networks podcast feed.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Jim Root for this week, joined by

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Speaker 2: the rest of the Three Man Weave crew, Kai McEwan

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Speaker 2: and Matt Cox. Every Wednesday, we're dropping a new Big

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Speaker 2: Bets on Campus episode into your feed, talking all things

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Speaker 2: betting in the world of college basketball. This week's episode,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna be pretty similar to what you've heard in

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Speaker 2: the past if it's your first episode, as you're joining

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Speaker 2: over from college football. We're gonna start talking live dogs

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Speaker 2: of the week, some dogs that maybe we think can

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Speaker 2: win outright or at least are worth backing getting the points.

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Speaker 2: We're going to talk Power Conference games of the week.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna talk mid major games of the week. We

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Speaker 2: will tell you the trash Man pick of the week,

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Speaker 2: the worst game of the week, and We will also

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Speaker 2: give a little bit of potential blowout city options and

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Speaker 2: at the end we have a spotlight section where we

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Speaker 2: zero in on a trend from current or recent trend

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Speaker 2: and try to decide if it's for real or maybe not.

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Speaker 2: So that is the layout for the episode files. Let's

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Speaker 2: jump right into the live Dog of the Week.

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Speaker 5: Dog.

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Speaker 2: The recap from last week. Hey, we did well again,

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Speaker 2: No right, good job boys, Pacific clean sweep across the board.

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Speaker 2: All of us said they would win outright they did.

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Speaker 2: Milwaukee also won outright at Cleveland State took over time

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Speaker 2: but that still counts. And UAB barely lost at FAU.

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Speaker 2: Granted that game close too, as we predicted. That spread

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Speaker 2: was not five like Ken Palm had it before, but hey,

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Speaker 2: they got close. They would have covered every line, but

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Speaker 2: the closing line it closed too. Let's get into this week.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna start with Wednesday, Matt. I'm gonna present three

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Speaker 2: options for you. You are going to tell me if

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Speaker 2: you like any of them, and I'm gonna start with

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Speaker 2: your Duke. Blue Devils. They're hosting Pitt plus seven for

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Speaker 2: the Panthers Rock They've already beaten UNC, They've already beaten Virginia.

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Speaker 2: Those were at home, though, Are they gonna get this

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Speaker 2: big road w in Durham?

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Speaker 5: And by the time you've already heard this podcast, if

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Speaker 5: you're listening to it like a week on delay, you

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Speaker 5: will have known that Pitt's already beaten Duke and the

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Speaker 5: sky is falling in Cameron. I mean, Jeff Cable going

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Speaker 5: back to the old stopping grounds a little revenge after

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Speaker 5: he watches his former colleague John Shire step into the

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Speaker 5: big boy's shoes that he probably thinks he should have gotten.

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Speaker 1: You know, he shouldn't have.

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Speaker 5: But Jeremy Roach confirmed out for this game Kayle like

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Speaker 5: almost surely, and Duke's a different team without him. I

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Speaker 5: think Pitt has a real upset chance here. It feels

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Speaker 5: wild to think that we're talking about Pitt is like

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Speaker 5: a real double digit or even sorry, high single digit

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Speaker 5: underdog at Cameron. But that's how good Pit's play, and

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Speaker 5: that's how shaky the Devils are right now.

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Speaker 4: Yeah wow, I don't know if I see Pitt winning

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Speaker 4: out right, maybe covering the spread, but gosh, that would

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Speaker 4: be something to Pitt. One at your deep Blue Devil's Matt.

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Speaker 4: I like TCU, Jim, I like TCU plus eight plus

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Speaker 4: seven whatever at Texas. I think Texas is shaky. I

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Speaker 4: think tc is very very good, though I did back

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Speaker 4: them and failed against Iowa State earlier this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a TCU I think is a great spot too.

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Speaker 2: They're awful loss. Texas just feels like they're overvalued because

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Speaker 2: of the beard infused performances from earlier in the year

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Speaker 2: have not been as sharp. You know, they haven't been

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Speaker 2: a disaster, but they just certainly aren't as sharp. And

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Speaker 2: we know that's gonna be a good home environment the

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Speaker 2: new Colisseum down there in Austin. But I think this

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Speaker 2: TCU is a great dog team. They're physical, they defend,

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Speaker 2: They're going to make you earn your points, and they

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Speaker 2: can get points on the offensive class, which gives them

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Speaker 2: a little bit of a stable ceiling or a state,

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Speaker 2: excuse me, a stable floor offensively. For those that are listening,

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Speaker 2: I just want to give you a quick tidbit scouting report.

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Speaker 2: Matt has a live dog on his lap as we

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Speaker 2: talk a lot. I know that's terrible audio, but I

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Speaker 2: just want you to know that there is something. There's

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Speaker 2: real juice flowing through as we talk live dogs. A

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Speaker 2: live dog is involved. One more. I want to mention

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Speaker 2: on Wednesday, Chicago State at Tarleton State. This is going

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Speaker 2: to be a weird season for Chicago State. They're an independent,

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Speaker 2: they're not in a conference, so they're going to get

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Speaker 2: all these teams in the middle of league play. Incentives

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Speaker 2: is going to be really odd for those teams. Whereas

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Speaker 2: Chicago State, they just want to win games, that's all

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Speaker 2: they're doing. Tarleton State's down their two leading scorers and

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Speaker 2: Freddie Hicks and Jacory Smith. The Cougars have been feisty

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Speaker 2: all the year. Is that something I can interest you

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Speaker 2: in with the Cougars perk Henpound getting ten at Tarleton.

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Speaker 1: State, Yes, it is.

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Speaker 5: It's Tarleton like Texas A and m Commerce put in

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Speaker 5: this boat where because there's so much fouling and both

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Speaker 5: ways in their games. I feel like the variants in

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Speaker 5: their games is extremely high. And you can see Charleton

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Speaker 5: losing to a team like Chicigo State just like you

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Speaker 5: see them competing with all the big boys. It swings

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Speaker 5: both ways, and we saw them kind of come back down,

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Speaker 5: crash back down to earth. I would say last year

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Speaker 5: in conference play you could see the same thing happening

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Speaker 5: and again this year because of the injuries and the

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Speaker 5: depth and like Billy Gillespie is kind of like a

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Speaker 5: nut job, like he works as players like maniacally into

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Speaker 5: the ground. I think there's real concerns that he does

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Speaker 5: wear his team down and it does take a toll

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Speaker 5: as the dog days, as the pup days of conference commence.

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Speaker 2: Kay.

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Speaker 4: Well yeah, And just to add to that, Secure Daniel

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Speaker 4: also missed last game for Tarleton State, another starter. So

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Speaker 4: they're down all three of those guys. Sure Chicgo State

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Speaker 4: can hang around. Why not. They're one of the best

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Speaker 4: ATS teams in the country. So fire up Koog's Jim,

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Speaker 4: I'll heard that one of maybe for me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we always talk up Gerald Gillion's impact there. The

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Speaker 2: coach at Chicago State last two years, has done a

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Speaker 2: remarkable job basically resurrecting that program from the depths of

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Speaker 2: Division one hell really really impressive stuff. Despite going to

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Speaker 2: the independent ranks a couple dimention on Thursday here, Canzaga

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Speaker 2: is at BYU. Zaga has had some close shaves on

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Speaker 2: the road so far at Santa Clara and San Francisco

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Speaker 2: Almost Francisco. They've really struggled in the Bay Area. Now

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Speaker 2: ahead to BYU, a place you know they've struggled a

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Speaker 2: little bit in the past. BYU trening up. We've got

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Speaker 2: a couple former CUSA squads now meeting in the sun Belt.

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Speaker 2: Marshall is hosting Southern miss the Golden Eagles, a seven

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Speaker 2: point dog on the road per Ken Palm, and then

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Speaker 2: the second edition of the McNeese State Northwestern State Rivalry.

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Speaker 2: I know people live for that down in the Bayou,

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Speaker 2: but McNeice plus eight in that one. They've already beaten

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Speaker 2: Northwestern State by fifteen in that particular matchup this season,

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Speaker 2: it can happen. They're always dialed in for that game. Kai.

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Speaker 2: Any of these jump out to you, raise an eyebrow,

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Speaker 2: get your attention, yeah.

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Speaker 4: Quick note on the Southland rematch there. Southland rematches have

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Speaker 4: been very strange so far this year. They tend to

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Speaker 4: do a foot floppy. New Orleans lost in overtime Houston

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Speaker 4: Christian then blew them out the next game. I'm so

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Speaker 4: angry I did not bet New Orleans again in that game,

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Speaker 4: even though I should have a and m Corpus Christy

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Speaker 4: did not cover against in Karna Word in game two

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Speaker 4: after blowing in Karnate Word out, and Selt did not

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Speaker 4: cover against Lamar in fact, almost lost out right after

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Speaker 4: winning by thirty the previous game. So some weird stuff

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Speaker 4: happens in these south Land foot flops. I'm going to

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Speaker 4: stay away from McNeice. What I am going to take

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Speaker 4: though Southern Mischim because I love this team number one

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Speaker 4: and man seven points. That moneyline values can be pretty

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Speaker 4: darn good for a team that I think might be

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Speaker 4: pretty close to Marshall. Not quite as good Navy, but

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Speaker 4: pretty darn close enough to take a swing.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I hit the points on Northwestern State dickens Zaga thing.

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Speaker 5: It just seems like it's too low of spread to

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Speaker 5: find much value there in backing the home Cougars as

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Speaker 5: much we love back and by hit the Marriott Center

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Speaker 5: and as Ju subs that place will be and Marshall

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Speaker 5: still terrifies me at home, even though they've looked more

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Speaker 5: and more as opposed to the juggernaut they looked in November.

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Speaker 5: So I think I'm going to keep my slate nice

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Speaker 5: and tight. Does Minnesota at Ohio State have any interest

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Speaker 5: to you guys as a Thursday throwing So we just

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Speaker 5: sad Minnesota note okay, good enough, and I.

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Speaker 2: Don't want to just I'm not going to one word

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Speaker 2: you there. I have them mentioned in blott City, so

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Speaker 2: that's I'll give my my likeing Ohio State in blott City,

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Speaker 2: so we'll see. But any others for you guys, I

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Speaker 2: have three that I'm going to take here, But any

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Speaker 2: others on the Wednesday or Thursday slates that jumped out

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Speaker 2: to you that you want to discuss before we give

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Speaker 2: our final picks for a lot Dog of the.

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Speaker 4: Week, Jim, I got nothing on Wednesday. In particular, there's

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Speaker 4: a lot of close spreads. We're going to see a

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Speaker 4: lot of really really blow five point spreads in conference play.

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Speaker 4: Should be a very fun day in general to watch basketball.

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Speaker 4: I'm going with just TCU in Southern miss on my card.

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Speaker 2: All right, Matthew, what about you?

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Speaker 5: The only on one I wrote down was Northern Arizona

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Speaker 5: at Portland State, kind of a big sky deep cut

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Speaker 5: one just because NAU I think has upside with Cone

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Speaker 5: and some scores there in Portland State can get into

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Speaker 5: very erratic styles types of games because of how they

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Speaker 5: play it very frenetically. But yeah, you're right, not a

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Speaker 5: very enticing list of options, as I just threw out

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Speaker 5: Minnesota to see what's stuck on the wall.

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Speaker 1: Clearly that didn't stick though for you.

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Speaker 2: Guys, what are you locking in?

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Speaker 4: Moneyline Dog? Money line Dog?

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Speaker 5: M it's a big payout. It is a big payout.

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Speaker 5: I might put twenty bucks on it. See what happens

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Speaker 5: and it'll come last.

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Speaker 1: Go back to your face.

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Speaker 2: This next show, What are you locking in? Mat is

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Speaker 2: official show picks for swine Dog of the Week.

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Speaker 1: Just one taking Pitt.

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Speaker 2: I'm joining Kai on TCU, I'm joining Matt on Pitt

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Speaker 2: and I'm going with the Wednesday trifecta. I think Chicago

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Speaker 2: State gets that shocking wind down at Tarleton and angers.

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Speaker 2: Mister Billy Clyde Gillespie. All right, let's move to the

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Speaker 2: next section. Blowout City. And I mentioned I wanted to

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Speaker 2: discuss Ohio State here they will be. They will be discussed.

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Speaker 2: Last week, Perduy Fort Wayne could not get away from

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Speaker 2: Green Bay unfortunately, and Toledo did destroy Western Michigan on Friday.

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Speaker 2: And if you go back, we were very tepid in

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Speaker 2: our endorsements of those I think the blots are tougher

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Speaker 2: to find in conference play. You've got more motivated dogs.

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Speaker 2: I think the blots tend to happen more in spots

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Speaker 2: than they do. And just like good team blows out

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Speaker 2: bad team, you just kind of got to find, like

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Speaker 2: the flu or the travel who is just not up

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Speaker 2: for that particular game or vice versa. Is there a

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Speaker 2: favorite that's highly motivated and Matt That's what I'm looking

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Speaker 2: at With Ohio State. They've lost two straight league games,

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Speaker 2: both very frustrating. They might get z keyback, who had

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Speaker 2: his shoulder kind of dislocated. He missed the loss at

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Speaker 2: Maryland over the weekend. I think they're going to be

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Speaker 2: able to get away from Minnesota, who has been admittedly feisty,

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Speaker 2: but the better choice Kai maybe on Wednesday. Howstra laying

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Speaker 2: twenty one to Monmouth, Mom let's getting thirty ball by

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Speaker 2: everybody right now. That team is pitiful offensively. Do we

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Speaker 2: think Hofstra scores enough to bowl them out?

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Speaker 4: I do. I am team said Monmouth, I did it

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Speaker 4: against Gosh if hear they played it must have been Wilmington,

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Speaker 4: which was funny. Yeah, yeah, I should have faded them

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Speaker 4: again with Drexel, just didn't trust the Dragons enough.

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Speaker 2: Should have.

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Speaker 4: I think mom is one of the worst scenes in

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Speaker 4: the country.

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Speaker 2: It could be.

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Speaker 4: Bottom ten, bottom five, even it's a hope situation there.

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Speaker 4: I do think Hofstra can can get the blowout on Wednesday.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm with Jim add to your point about when

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Speaker 5: to look for these blowout cities and conferences like spots matter,

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Speaker 5: but also the select few of teams that just are

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Speaker 5: starting to kind of peel apart at the seams. And

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Speaker 5: that's what Mammoth is right now. Like King Rice tries

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Speaker 5: to defend his team in the press, like, oh, come on,

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Speaker 5: support our guys play hard, they're young, and they're a

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Speaker 5: bunch of good guys. And you know, when you hear

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Speaker 5: excessive talk about good men and good people, that usually

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Speaker 5: kind of masks the quality of basketball that they're.

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Speaker 1: Putting on the on the floor.

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Speaker 5: And mo Month is certainly in disaster territory, So yeah,

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Speaker 5: I would I think fading Hafster is a pretty good.

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Speaker 1: Strategy going forward.

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Speaker 2: Famouth, fading Momoth excuse me, yes, yep, agreed. Last one

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Speaker 2: worth mentioning Purdue fort Wayne. I know we just said

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Speaker 2: they did not get away from green Bay there minus

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Speaker 2: fifteen at Iupui on Thursday. I think they're capable of bowling

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Speaker 2: teams out despite that green Bay effort and Jalen counter

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Speaker 2: got hurt for iup Y on Monday, did not return

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Speaker 2: fifteen minutes. Yeah, Jalen j l y n n not

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Speaker 2: not your typical Jalen. But if he's out, that really

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Speaker 2: hurts the Iupuy offense, which is already kind of non existent.

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Speaker 2: So I think Prduy fort Wayne could run them out

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Speaker 2: if he's if he's absent.

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Speaker 4: What if I told you, Jim that ip UY has

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Speaker 4: covered five for the last six games.

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Speaker 2: I would believe it. Here's what I would say.

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Speaker 4: It's annoying.

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Speaker 2: I think you need to bet first half against Iupuy.

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Speaker 2: I don't think they've covered. I think that might be

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Speaker 2: flipped where they've covered five of six full games but

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Speaker 2: have not covered five or six first halves. I think

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Speaker 2: teams just remember how bad they were last year. They

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Speaker 2: take care of business in the first half and they's

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Speaker 2: just like whatever, this team is not coming back to

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Speaker 2: beat us. We'll play with our food and it ends

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Speaker 2: up just kind of being like a kick around for

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Speaker 2: the second half.

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Speaker 5: And maybe they've been down twenty points in all four

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Speaker 5: conference games, but yet they've finished. Yeah, as kind of

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Speaker 5: mentioned seven fourteen fourteen, I think for all three covers right,

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Speaker 5: Robert Morris.

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Speaker 4: They did not go Youngstown.

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Speaker 2: I don't think.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Young Kentucky, Wright State, Robert Morris, they all covered.

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Speaker 5: They're down twenty in all those games. So I like

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Speaker 5: that angle jam very good.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's I think that's that's solid. That

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Speaker 2: reminds me of a WNBA angle I hit a lot

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Speaker 2: last summer. So haha, that's a cross handicapping right there. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: all right, that's it for blot City. Before we get

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Speaker 2: into power Game of the Week, we want to get

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Speaker 2: a message from our dear friend Stucky in our sponsor.

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Speaker 3: Power Game of the Week fellas, oh, I could feel

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Speaker 3: we're ignoring Thursday because Wednesday is so stacked fantastic games

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Speaker 3: on Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: Hopefully you're listening to this on Wednesday morning. Yukon at

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Speaker 2: Marquette is where we're going to start. Milwaukee is going

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Speaker 2: to be wild for this one. We know Shaka Smart

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Speaker 2: is a fantastic underdog. He's approaching sixty percent as an

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Speaker 2: underdog as a head coach across three different schools. He's

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Speaker 2: clearly a strong motivator in those situations. Of course, only

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Speaker 2: getting two points here, it's a short dog, Matthew. Do

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Speaker 2: you think that Marquette can unseat Yukon and give them

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Speaker 2: already their third Big East loss? I'll be shocking.

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Speaker 5: It's too short of spread for me to like really

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Speaker 5: lean into the shock as a dog thing, like any

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Speaker 5: little more point a few more points. Let's assume it

336
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Speaker 5: opens it too. I don't think it will. I feel

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Speaker 5: like I'll be juiced up a little bit in favor

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Speaker 5: of the Huskies, despite the fact that that they're what

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00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:02,880
Speaker 5: oh and three in their last vee against the numbers,

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Speaker 5: certainly leveling off.

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Speaker 1: I think against.

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Speaker 5: A home game, yeah, ugly, very near non cover. I

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Speaker 5: suppose I do like Yukon here. I think they get

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Speaker 5: it on the road.

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Speaker 1: That's gonna be a nuts place.

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Speaker 2: Smith.

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Speaker 1: I think you kind of gets it done.

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Speaker 4: The market's been against Yukon recently. I think pretty sure

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Speaker 4: Providence in Villanova both took money. Maybe they were took

350
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Speaker 4: some too. I think I don't think Yukon's overvalued anymore.

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Speaker 4: I think they're basically where they should be, pretty good,

352
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Speaker 4: or maybe even undervaled. I still think it seems really good,

353
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Speaker 4: and I have a really hard time fading him. But

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Speaker 4: going against Marquette, who yes, Shaka as a dog, and

355
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Speaker 4: that home court can be seriously something. When they get going,

356
00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:46,200
Speaker 4: they pressure. I like to think Yukon's a little bit

357
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Speaker 4: immune to Marquette's physicality and strength and really size, because

358
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,760
Speaker 4: Yukon is so big and basically exhibits all those qualities,

359
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Speaker 4: But I don't know. I'll have to see the line

360
00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:57,800
Speaker 4: here is Jim, It's gonna be a great game either way.

361
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Speaker 2: Yeah, Marquette just offense is beautiful. I've tweeted about it.

362
00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:06,080
Speaker 2: Like in the past, Chaka smart offenses were so frustrating

363
00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:08,240
Speaker 2: and bad and like that was the flaw. And now

364
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:10,359
Speaker 2: this team moves the ball so well. Tyler Kullak is

365
00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:14,160
Speaker 2: one of the best passers in the country. That Igadaro

366
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:15,840
Speaker 2: is one of the best passing big men in the country.

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Speaker 2: So just between that and they've got a bunch of finishers.

368
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Speaker 2: Cam Jones Omax prosper. Those guys can finish plays from anywhere.

369
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Speaker 2: I don't want to go against Marquette here. I will

370
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Speaker 2: probably make this about what it is, Yukon very short favorite,

371
00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:31,639
Speaker 2: kind of sit it out and enjoy that one. I

372
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Speaker 2: do think I'm gonna bet this next one. No fellas

373
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Speaker 2: Alabama at Arkansas. Kenbom has Arkansas laying one point here,

374
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:41,880
Speaker 2: just a very very short home favorite. Oates versus Musselman.

375
00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:45,320
Speaker 2: Really awesome coaching matchup here. Both guys have really raised

376
00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:48,640
Speaker 2: the level of these programs. I'm curious to see Kai

377
00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:52,880
Speaker 2: how much Alabama zones because Arkansas can't really shoot, and

378
00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:54,800
Speaker 2: that's been their kryptonite. Teams have been doing that to

379
00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 2: them repeatedly in the in league play. That's how ellis

380
00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:59,560
Speaker 2: you got a home win against them. Alabama is a

381
00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,840
Speaker 2: really good defensive team just playing man, but that's how

382
00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,240
Speaker 2: you can that's how Arkansas scores. So do we see

383
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:07,119
Speaker 2: a lot of Alabama zone and is that enough for

384
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Speaker 2: the Tide to get a roadwin?

385
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Speaker 4: I think this is Alabama's game at Arkansas. I thought

386
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,679
Speaker 4: had a really good home court and was tough to

387
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Speaker 4: beat at home. They're three and four against the spread

388
00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,560
Speaker 4: at home. Not to mention, we just saw our Zoo

389
00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:23,480
Speaker 4: Tiger's Jim Walton the Butd Walden and really control a

390
00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:25,439
Speaker 4: lot of the game. I know Arkansas came back and

391
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,320
Speaker 4: won that contest, but Alabama is kind of on a

392
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,159
Speaker 4: different level than the Zoo right now. I fully pretty

393
00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 4: much bought in on this team, and if they're a

394
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,080
Speaker 4: dog or a pick or a minus one favorite, that's

395
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Speaker 4: gonna be hard to stay away from, especially against Arkansas

396
00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:42,560
Speaker 4: team that they're clearly not. They're at their top gear

397
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,960
Speaker 4: without Nick Smith, without Brazil.

398
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Speaker 1: I can't believe it. Like Arkansas here.

399
00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:48,920
Speaker 5: I do that it reminds me in a weird way

400
00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:51,640
Speaker 5: to the Memphis Alabama game last year, where Memphis caught

401
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:54,119
Speaker 5: Alabama at like the all time best spot and everyone

402
00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:56,280
Speaker 5: was kind of throwing shade at Memphis. Memphis is broken

403
00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:58,480
Speaker 5: and they kind of got that just that good, perfect

404
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,679
Speaker 5: place Matt to maybe not flip a switch, but to

405
00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:03,520
Speaker 5: catch a really good team at the wrong time. I

406
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 5: do think that's what you maybe see here with Arkansas,

407
00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:11,720
Speaker 5: and I think, well, maybe they zone Arkansas a little bit,

408
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,040
Speaker 5: but not a ton and if Arkansas is playing mostly

409
00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,040
Speaker 5: man and more of an up and down, free flowing

410
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 5: type of game, that's where they can thrive. Right's where

411
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 5: they look really good at MAUI. That is where we

412
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:21,840
Speaker 5: know that this team is built to play well. And

413
00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 5: I hate that I like pick Sui here at home, but.

414
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Speaker 2: I do, yeah, I get the spot. I think for me,

415
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:29,919
Speaker 2: it's about just one teams is clearly better than the other.

416
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,480
Speaker 2: Right now. I think Alabama's defense is a decent kryptonite

417
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 2: because they take away rim and three. It's not great

418
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:38,760
Speaker 2: to take away the three against Arkansas because they can't

419
00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:40,360
Speaker 2: make it. But if you take away the rim against them.

420
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:42,800
Speaker 2: Force them to just live in the mid range. They

421
00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:45,159
Speaker 2: can beat you. That's how they beat Zoo, But I

422
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:46,800
Speaker 2: don't think they're going to be able to make enough

423
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:49,399
Speaker 2: to beat this al down team there. They are rolling

424
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 2: right now. I think definite top ten team in the country,

425
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,560
Speaker 2: very much a Final Four contender. I know that just

426
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 2: blew out Kentucky and so maybe there's a little like

427
00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:00,320
Speaker 2: complacency to it in the spot like matteluded to, But

428
00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:02,639
Speaker 2: I think going to Arkansas, you're gonna get plenty of

429
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:04,440
Speaker 2: motivation out of that team. They're deep, so you can

430
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 2: go with guys that are playing harder. If you see

431
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 2: one or two that are getting complacent, I like the Tide.

432
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:11,720
Speaker 2: I'll be backing them, And like I said, if it's

433
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 2: minus one either way or pick them, it's a Tide

434
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 2: bet for me. Last one in Power Game of the Week,

435
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:20,880
Speaker 2: Creighton at Xavier. Kind of the undercard in the Big

436
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:24,600
Speaker 2: East to the Yukon Marquette game, but man, it's barely

437
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,640
Speaker 2: an undercard. It's both these teams. Rock Xavier has been

438
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 2: fantastic all league play there they're still undefeated in the

439
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 2: Big East standings, and Creighton when they have Klkbrenner has

440
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,160
Speaker 2: looked like the top ten Ish team that people thought

441
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 2: they were going to be coming into the year. Big

442
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:42,920
Speaker 2: time battle in the paint, Matt Kaalkbrenner versus Fremantle and

443
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 2: the none g Twin Towers. Can they pull Kalkbrenner away

444
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,200
Speaker 2: from the rim open things up for drives for everybody else?

445
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 2: How do you see this one playing out?

446
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 1: I kind of like Creighton.

447
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,359
Speaker 5: Actually, my first saw was like, oh no, don't fade

448
00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:00,480
Speaker 5: home Xavier. But Xavier's actually been better on the road season.

449
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 5: Just beat Villanova by eight on the road, obviously, handle

450
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 5: Georgetown the road, handled Saint John's, although those last two

451
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:11,439
Speaker 5: opponents certainly, you know, don't necessarily deserve much impressed. And

452
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,240
Speaker 5: in Cincinnati they dominated the bear Cuts in their crosstown shootout.

453
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,119
Speaker 5: I think they go all I said, I think the

454
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,199
Speaker 5: splits are in favor of Creighton for that regard, and

455
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,320
Speaker 5: I think the size up front with Kulprenner back in

456
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 5: the mix is such a good a good way in

457
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,440
Speaker 5: the gate where the Muskies have their most reliable source

458
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,920
Speaker 5: of scoring. That's what I saw Indiana do well against

459
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 5: the x Men when they had success early in the year,

460
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:35,919
Speaker 5: and I think Crayton can replicate that defensively.

461
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, boy, I'm probably sitting this one out. I think

462
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 4: the line will be three or four, which is fair.

463
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 4: I see these teams pretty equal, so does Kim Pum.

464
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 4: I do think Zavior gonna have success pulling cockbrun away

465
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 4: from the rim. I love the Xavier team. I'm all

466
00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 4: the way in on them. It's weird to see them

467
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 4: kind of in the same spot because they feel like

468
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 4: they've been a lot better than Creighton this year, but

469
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 4: obviously Creighton's don't with injuries to Calkbrenner. I got no

470
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:00,680
Speaker 4: real side here, Jim. I'm hoping for a good game.

471
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,639
Speaker 2: Creighton's the hardest team to figure. Because I mentioned this

472
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 2: on Twitter. I think after the Yukon game, like half

473
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 2: their games they shoot way above forty five percent from

474
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,640
Speaker 2: three and just dominate and look like complete world beaters,

475
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 2: and then half of them they shoot sub twenty five percent.

476
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,679
Speaker 2: It's like this team is awful. Oh my gosh, they

477
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 2: can't beat anybody. What's wrong with them? They're just super streaky,

478
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 2: and I don't have a predictive model for when they're

479
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:26,159
Speaker 2: going to be on and when they're not going to

480
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 2: be that's that's a problem. So I've been mostly avoiding

481
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:31,359
Speaker 2: Creighton games because of that, because of how up and

482
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,400
Speaker 2: down they can be. The talent is there, the ceiling

483
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 2: is that they can access a very high ceiling, but

484
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 2: sometimes they just get in ruts and they take bad

485
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 2: shots and don't work the ball inside as much as

486
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,919
Speaker 2: they should. So given how much I love Xavier, like

487
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,479
Speaker 2: Kai and respect that team this year, this will sit

488
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 2: out for me. Going to sit this one out, only

489
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,920
Speaker 2: taking one thing there in power Game of the Week fellas,

490
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 2: We've got mid major Game of the Week now, and

491
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 2: oh boy, do we have a headliner Wednesday. Charleston headed

492
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:03,399
Speaker 2: to you and see Wilmington. The two longest winning streaks

493
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 2: in the country on the line here meeting head to

494
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 2: head atop the CIA, both four and oho in the league,

495
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 2: big time clash in tempo. We've got Wilmington three hundred

496
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 2: and thirty eighth offensively in possession length Charleston's fifty ninth.

497
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 2: They want to run Matt who controls the tempo? Does

498
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:21,640
Speaker 2: that mean they win the game? Also?

499
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 5: I do think Wilmington controls the tempo. You mention Charleston

500
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 5: isn't like as rabbit about running this year. They clearly

501
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,199
Speaker 5: still play up tempo. I think it's when they're at

502
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 5: their best, but they've It's almost like Kelsey wants to

503
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 5: prove to himself and to his team that they can

504
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,360
Speaker 5: win against teams that do slow them down. Like looking

505
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 5: at their games so far this year, they were dominate

506
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,120
Speaker 5: against Davidson in a low possession game that was early on,

507
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 5: but for recently Stetson playing into sixty two possessions that

508
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 5: we was very competitive. Towson I thought can control the

509
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 5: pace pretty well, and Towson took them to overtime, a

510
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 5: short handed Towson team.

511
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:54,679
Speaker 4: So I don't know.

512
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 5: My gut is telling me that Wilmington's the right play here,

513
00:23:57,720 --> 00:23:59,719
Speaker 5: but my heart's on Charlie. I'm just a Charleston guy

514
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:01,399
Speaker 5: all the way through. I'm tired of the anti twenty

515
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 5: five top twenty five pole banter.

516
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,160
Speaker 1: They're awesome. I'm rather than my guy, Pat Kelsey.

517
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's really scary going against Wilmington. They're the one

518
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 4: of the best ATS teams in the entire country. But

519
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 4: I do lenk towards Charleston here in a short line,

520
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 4: I think the better team. They can take care of

521
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:15,880
Speaker 4: business here.

522
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, Charleston just has so many offensive options, Like if

523
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:21,919
Speaker 2: the five that start the game aren't clicking, they just

524
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 2: go to another five and they figure it out. Like

525
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,680
Speaker 2: that team is really really deep, a lot of skill

526
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 2: across the roster. It's not like they only have one

527
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 2: or two creators. A lot of options. But you and

528
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 2: see Wilmington's going to be fired up. I don't know

529
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 2: if you guys remember how insane the environment got at

530
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:39,439
Speaker 2: Trask last year. That's UNC Wilmington's home court when they

531
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 2: got on their big time run. It's going to be

532
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 2: just like that, and this one's like a national implications,

533
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 2: Like Charleston's going to have the ranking next to their

534
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 2: name come into town. It's going to be a heck

535
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 2: of an environment there. I'll say, what I want to

536
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 2: happen is Charleston to win so they get the at

537
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 2: large resume boost, and then UNC Wilmington wins the nc

538
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 2: or the tournament title, and we get both these teams

539
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 2: in the NCAA tournament. That's my ideal outcome. No shade

540
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 2: of the Seahawks, they just don't have quite the at

541
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 2: large potential that Charleston does. Right now, given that Virginia

542
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 2: Tech win. That's on the resume. We'll see. I probably

543
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 2: won't bet it thinking about the home team, but nothing

544
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 2: strong enough to back it in an actual wager. Other

545
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 2: game of the night on Wednesday in the mid major World,

546
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 2: Southern Illinois at Indiana State, I su you blew the

547
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 2: sycamore sitting atop the valley at six and oh sau

548
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,160
Speaker 2: one of these six yes, count of six squads two

549
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 2: games behind them at four and two, trying to chase

550
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 2: down the Sycamores. This would be a huge opportunity. Another

551
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 2: tempo clash. Guys, just like Charleston and Wilmington. In possession length,

552
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 2: we've got twenty eighth for three excuse me, overall tempo

553
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 2: twenty eighth first, three hundred and thirty seventh for the Slukis.

554
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 2: I'll go to you first here, Kai who controls the tempo?

555
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:52,120
Speaker 2: Who wins the game?

556
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 4: Hey, Indiana State's awesome. Man. It sucks because we were

557
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 4: so high on them coming into the year, but the

558
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 4: market was higher, Man, the market's tinue to be higher.

559
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 4: Haven't really gotten my rock soft gym will say, betting

560
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 4: on the Sycamores this year. Now, Having said that, the

561
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,640
Speaker 4: teams they've played recently in conference play. Not that impressive, right,

562
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 4: Evansville Valpo, Illinois State U. I see the four worst

563
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 4: teams in the valley. Maybe that has something to do

564
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,199
Speaker 4: with it that they're looking so good right now, but

565
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 4: they did be SYU earlier this year on the road.

566
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,120
Speaker 4: I think the Slukies can return the favor here. You've

567
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,919
Speaker 4: seen this before in Missouri Valley of road teams kind

568
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 4: of trading wins, and I think SIU is still very

569
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 4: very good and capable of doing this, and they can't

570
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 4: fall three games back Matt in conference place. So actually

571
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 4: in towards the Slukies here.

572
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 5: I do too, even though I think that SIU Blue

573
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,399
Speaker 5: is the better team, and I'm not always sold I'm

574
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 5: a Salukies.

575
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 1: I do think just SU Blue. Thank you, SIU Blue.

576
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,719
Speaker 5: I'm morphing the two opponents are the two teams here.

577
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 5: I think the spot is very much in favor of

578
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 5: Slukies here, and even though I'm not a huge fan

579
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 5: of their team, I think they'll really rely on defense

580
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 5: to win. I don't know if they have enough balance

581
00:26:57,600 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 5: on both sides. I think it's the right spot to

582
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 5: back them. Yeah, you're right, the valley will turn into

583
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 5: a parody ridden league, and I think it's it's a

584
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 5: good spot to back a dog in that case.

585
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,959
Speaker 2: It'd be rather shocking to see a team even as

586
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 2: good as Indiana State. It's like a run away with this.

587
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 2: We thought maybe Drake would be a tier on their

588
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:16,399
Speaker 2: own in this league coming into the season. Hasn't quite

589
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 2: turned out that way. And yeah, having lost at home already,

590
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 2: I think the road flip flop could happen here. Sau

591
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,880
Speaker 2: getting four points I think is good value and potentially

592
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:26,439
Speaker 2: been winning out right in that one. So it's not

593
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 2: quite a live Dog of the week because it's only

594
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 2: four but I think we all would agree that Sau

595
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 2: if you had to bet it, I think getting the

596
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 2: four points and with them slowing it down and mucking

597
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:40,200
Speaker 2: it up, I think that's the right side. Okay, next section,

598
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:43,920
Speaker 2: it's the trash man pick of the week. The trash

599
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 2: man pick of the week.

600
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 1: I'm the trash man.

601
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 2: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it,

602
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 2: totally unreliable, undependently.

603
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:53,959
Speaker 6: That's it. You've been told off.

604
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 2: How do you like that? Good? And man, you could

605
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 2: go a number of different directions here. I think you

606
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,439
Speaker 2: could pick almost any Ohio Valley game any week and

607
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 2: just go with it. Bad League ANYC also has the

608
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 2: same kind of issues, But we're going with New Orleans

609
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 2: and Incarnate Word Kai the second invoking of New Orleans

610
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 2: here as you talked about them in the Houston Christian

611
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 2: flip flop in the Southland. Both these teams are in

612
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 2: the bottom thirty of the country. New Orleans three thirty seventh,

613
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:25,880
Speaker 2: Incarnate Word three fifty second, Matt UIW laying one at home,

614
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 2: any interesting get involved and digging into the trash here.

615
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 5: There was a time where UIW is my pet team,

616
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 5: and that time was last year, and I lost a

617
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 5: lot of money posing up to that take. So I

618
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 5: don't know, Kay, you've a better beat on the south

619
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 5: fans your neck of the woods. The Privateiers are beloved.

620
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 5: Privateers of Nola's seem to be very wackam only, but

621
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 5: I guess both these teams are. So I have no

622
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 5: effing idea.

623
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 4: I think in conference play, I think New Orleans is

624
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 4: gonna be pretty good, but they're very a very difficult

625
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 4: team of trust because they don't play defense and they're

626
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 4: a literal sieve. They're also probably playing with fire in

627
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 4: terms of shooting. I mean, they're eighth in the country

628
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 4: in three point percentage. There's just no way that that

629
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 4: good of a shooting team that's probably gonna come downhill.

630
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 4: They beat up on La mar in Houston Christian last

631
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 4: two games, but we saw them losing overtime earlier to

632
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 4: Houston Christian. I have absolutely no take here at one

633
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 4: on the road against Incarnate Word. I'm probably going to

634
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 4: lean towards New Orleans, but I'm not sure I have

635
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 4: the guests to take you gym.

636
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just think they're better than Karn Word, who's

637
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,239
Speaker 2: Incarnate Word has some injuries. New Orleans coming into the year,

638
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 2: I thought could not compete at the top of this league,

639
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 2: but be a part of the solid middle, and they've

640
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 2: really sank down gotten blown out a lot in non

641
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 2: league play. I think they're their style. They have decent

642
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 2: bigs to contend in this league, but they can't contend

643
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 2: with non conference opponents. I will probably be back in

644
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 2: New Orleans there I might get trashy and go with

645
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 2: the privateers. All right, let's finish up with the spotlight section,

646
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 2: and this is a spotlight on teams that have been

647
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 2: hot or cold over the last three weeks, so kind

648
00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 2: of a current form analysis. This is basically from I

649
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 2: looked at Ken Palm adjusted efficiency margin changes over the

650
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 2: last three weeks. You could also go through bart Torvik

651
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 2: and filter filter it since like basically right before Christmas.

652
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 2: But I want you to tell me these teams that

653
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 2: are hot, are they sell high because they are just

654
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 2: playing well right now? Or are they legit We need

655
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 2: to change our rating, adjust our expectations for them. So

656
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 2: the top five right now, Quinnipiac is the highest increase

657
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 2: in adjusted efficiency margin, big time skewed by blowing out

658
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 2: Iona Worth knowing when noting that Idaho State, Nevada, Alifornia, Oh,

659
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 2: the Golden Bears, how about.

660
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 1: That they can shoot it. It's a Golden State Warriors shim.

661
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 1: That's what you do.

662
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 5: That's what they don't know. They've just kind of like

663
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 5: morphed into different freaky.

664
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 2: From Bay Area, yep, exactly. And then Western Carolina also

665
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 2: up there in the SoCon other notables, Providence's way up,

666
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 2: Tennessee just keeps mowing down competition in Kansas State, a

667
00:30:56,360 --> 00:31:00,160
Speaker 2: couple of big big twelve road winds. Kyle Gody, you

668
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:02,719
Speaker 2: did any of these jump out at you as and

669
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 2: this is kind of a flash in the pan. I

670
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 2: want to sell high. I kind of liked that their

671
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 2: values increased, so now I get to fade them.

672
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 4: Well, I think Western Carolina is so high. I don't

673
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 4: really know what's happening right now with that team. I

674
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 4: guess I thought it'd be okay earlier in the year.

675
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 4: But to be Furman, Etsu and Mercer all in a

676
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 4: row by convincing Margins is Yeah, it's impressive. But I

677
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 4: just don't think there's any way they can be this good,

678
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 4: So I'm probably selling them. I understand the Quinnypiac move.

679
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 4: They have a lot of talent on that team, a

680
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 4: lot of good guards. Idaho State's probably fraudulent, but I've

681
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 4: always liked their coach. Cal is definitely fraudulent. They will

682
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 4: come back down to earth. I will be fading them

683
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 4: going forward.

684
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 2: Let's get some shorter cowspreads so we can fade them.

685
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 2: That same question, who jumps out to you as sell

686
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 2: high versus I'm changing.

687
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 5: My outlook Idaho State. I kind of buy a little bit.

688
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 5: Western Carolina actually very much buy like this roster actually

689
00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 5: has some pieces and it's more talents. In the last

690
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 5: two years under great, and they're playing at a higher

691
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 5: level than they have. I think this is very believable.

692
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 5: He just got off to such a bad start, had

693
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 5: a few injuries. Man, the fan forums lead you to

694
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 5: believe that they're like worries missipe Valley State. But this

695
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 5: team's got some, got some. They can score a at

696
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 5: world right back. I got Trey Jackson from Iowa State, Like,

697
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 5: I kind.

698
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 1: Of buy the catamounts of all of all teams.

699
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 2: I'm hesitant there. They're lasting SoCon and two point percentage

700
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 2: right now on offense, Like, I don't know how sustainable.

701
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 2: A lot of their offenses they bomb away from deep

702
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 2: and they totally take away the three point line. Number

703
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 2: one in the country in taking away the three point line.

704
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 2: That's probably the most sustainable part of it because the

705
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 2: SoCon loves to bomb away. I talked to all these

706
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 2: coaches before the season for the Almanac, and they're like, yeah,

707
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 2: of course, we give up a lot of threes. Everyone

708
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 2: in our conference just wants to bomb threes. And Western

709
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 2: Carolina has made a serious point to take that away.

710
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 2: So maybe that is an edge to make them for real.

711
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 2: Just from the Power Conference standpoint, I know this is

712
00:32:56,760 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 2: gonna be probably insane, but I think Tennessee's getting a

713
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 2: little too high up there. I don't know if they're

714
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 2: going to be the number two team in the country

715
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 2: going forward. We're recording this on Tuesday. They're playing Vanderbilt tonight.

716
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 2: I have faded Tennessee With Vanderbilt. I could be in

717
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 2: huge trouble. The listeners will be able to either laugh

718
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 2: at me or think I'm wise. But yeah, I just

719
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 2: don't know if Tennessee is going to stay up quite

720
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 2: that high and continue thoroughly smashing SEC competition mat They're

721
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 2: kind of inflated right now by blowing out South Carolina,

722
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 2: the worst team in the league.

723
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 5: And Mississippi State just before that. You're right by what

724
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 5: twenty four so or thirty four four? Maybe Chris Chian's

725
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 5: by thirty four My god. Yeah, the defense is very real.

726
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 5: But this is what this is, the whole slippery slope

727
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 5: where you kind of ride that defensive love affair into

728
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 5: a high leverage game and then it kind of comes

729
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 5: back to value when the offense goes awry.

730
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 2: So be careful. I guess opponents are making twenty point

731
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 2: eight percent of their threes against Tennessee. I know they

732
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,120
Speaker 2: forced tough threes, but twenty point eight will be an

733
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 2: all time record.

734
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 5: They're like twenty five twenty six percent is like Houston

735
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 5: or Virginia, where it's like that's just good defense and

736
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 5: you're forcing tough shots. But twenty percent is just like

737
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 5: that's not even. You could take thirty second shots for

738
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 5: forty minutes and you'd still make a higher signs on that.

739
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure their defensive ficiency rating is the best

740
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 4: ever right now. It is in kim pom's history, eighty

741
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 4: point five there is. They're dominating. It has to be

742
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:30,759
Speaker 4: the best ever. It's impossible to be better. There's only

743
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 4: one way to go. It has to be a regression, right,

744
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 4: it has to be.

745
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see. I don't know when it'll start, if

746
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 2: it starts soon, or if maybe it never even happens.

747
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:42,359
Speaker 2: We think it'll probably happen. But Man, Tennessee scary team

748
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 2: to fade, because, like you said, you can bet on

749
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 2: a well coached Mississippi State team and lose by thirty

750
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 2: four just the way it goes. Sometimes, let's flip the

751
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:54,319
Speaker 2: other side. Cold teams that are either by low like

752
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 2: this is just a bad stretch, or we got to

753
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:58,919
Speaker 2: let them be bad, don't worry about it, don't catch

754
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:01,320
Speaker 2: the falling knife. As our friend Stucky likes to say,

755
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 2: the worst decrease in or the largest decrease in adjusted

756
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:10,879
Speaker 2: deficiency margin since right before Christmas, Kentucky fellas. The Wildcats

757
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 2: just have not been impressive of late. Big Blue Nation

758
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 2: has really really struggled trying to figure out what their

759
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 2: rotation is. And I get it. It mashes the eye test.

760
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:21,279
Speaker 2: I watched them and they just don't seem settled. But

761
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 2: other were other teams in that boat. Loyal in Maryland,

762
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 2: it's been Dad in the Patriots.

763
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:28,320
Speaker 1: Add basketball team, yep. Agree.

764
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:32,440
Speaker 2: Loyal is Chicago. Also in this boat. They've really struggled

765
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 2: with late Jacksonville State in the a Sun and Mercer

766
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 2: in the SoCon. I will volunteer that I have surrendered

767
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 2: on both Jacksonville State and Mercer like tanked both their ratings.

768
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 2: I don't think they're by low. I think they're just

769
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 2: really struggling basketball teams. Got did anybody else stand out

770
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 2: to you as more by low Gosh?

771
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 4: By low Jim? I I buy law on Iowa if

772
00:35:55,760 --> 00:36:00,319
Speaker 4: I knew mccaffrew come back soon. But I don't staying

773
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 4: away there. Kentucky's probably a by load team eventually. I'm

774
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 4: not sure we've seen the bottom quite yet. We'll see

775
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:09,839
Speaker 4: after the Tennessee game. Bylow on Virginia Tech for sure,

776
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 4: because Hunter Tour is not a lineup and that's.

777
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 2: The hardest of nodding. Yes, he's back.

778
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,719
Speaker 4: He's the reason I agree on Jack State, I give up.

779
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,959
Speaker 4: I tanked him, I tanked Loyal and Maryland. I tanked

780
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:25,400
Speaker 4: Loyal in Chicago. Done on those teams. Mercer might uptick again.

781
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,760
Speaker 4: They've had a lot of weird lineup issues, so maybe

782
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 4: they go down the upswing. But yeah, why why that

783
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 4: on these teams right now? Guys don't don't catch the

784
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 4: following night.

785
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:37,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, all I see here are bad teams or teams

786
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 5: that are experiencing regression that was probably overdue. I don't

787
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 5: like see any buy lows right now, like Kentucky. Maybe

788
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 5: in like a month or so, but not right now.

789
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 4: Yeah.

790
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 2: The one, the one that's by Low is Virginia Tech

791
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 2: because there's a clear reason you point to Tour's status.

792
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,319
Speaker 5: But they have some young, talented pieces that can maybe

793
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 5: around and you know, provide some upside there and great

794
00:36:57,520 --> 00:36:59,279
Speaker 5: coach coach b Like and we saw them get it

795
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 5: quite hot. Was it last year or the year before?

796
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:04,760
Speaker 5: So yeah, the Hokies are probably the one true Bilo

797
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 5: of this list.

798
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, but to your point, Matt, some of the teams

799
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 2: that like got too highly valued and are now they're

800
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 2: in the middle of the regression back down. That's em

801
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 2: as a little a team that yes played like one

802
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:17,840
Speaker 2: of the two or three worst non conference schedules in

803
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 2: the country, blew out a ton of bad teams, got

804
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:22,320
Speaker 2: all the way up to like one hundred and thirteenth

805
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 2: and Ken Palm, they're all the way back down to

806
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:25,840
Speaker 2: one seventy eighth, and I think there might be a

807
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:29,439
Speaker 2: little bit more dropping to do for them. America East

808
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 2: is a tough league.

809
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:30,879
Speaker 4: Well.

810
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 2: While having one of their better years, ever, it's still

811
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:36,360
Speaker 2: maybe a little bit high for them. Regression could still

812
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 2: be coming. Four the river Hawks. All right, guys, let's

813
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:43,280
Speaker 2: do a quick final bet recap everything from the show

814
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 2: that we thought was at least worth a little bit

815
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:48,319
Speaker 2: of a wager. Going back to Live Dog of the Week,

816
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 2: I had TCU Pitt Chicago State, so I'm going with

817
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 2: and going through. I also went with in Blott City,

818
00:37:56,160 --> 00:38:00,320
Speaker 2: I think Ohio State smacks Minnesota in Power Game of

819
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 2: the Week, Alabama hopefully getting as an underdog at Arkansas.

820
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 2: I think that's worth a shot. And then in the

821
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 2: mid Major Game of the Week SIU plus four, I

822
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 2: think we all kind of like that one. That's it

823
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 2: for me. Kai, Why don't you recat what you have in.

824
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 4: The Live Dogs, I'm going TCU and Southern miss and

825
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 4: blowout City. I'll be on Hofstra Power Game of the Week.

826
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 4: I'm leaning towards Yukon, haven't decided yet. I will likely

827
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:28,240
Speaker 4: be Onbama as well. The mid Major game. I'm probably

828
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:31,720
Speaker 4: gonna back with Slukies and think about Charleston as well.

829
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:35,879
Speaker 4: Trash Man, We'll see about New Orleans. We will see.

830
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 2: That's right, I forgot Ne Orleans. Yeah, yeah, we'll see.

831
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 5: I'm taking Pitt because I'm just going to completely zig

832
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 5: against the duke fandom zag and this team's in disarray,

833
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 5: So taking Pitt, finding Jeff Caples, I'm taking Arkansas against

834
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:54,879
Speaker 5: my beloved Alabama boys. Just a bad spot to back

835
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 5: the well head to head here with the Weavers, and

836
00:38:56,320 --> 00:39:00,279
Speaker 5: then I'm taking Charleston going on the road to end

837
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 5: this whole UNC Wilmington Horseshoe up ass thing like it's

838
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 5: the better team.

839
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:05,279
Speaker 1: I think they play like it all right.

840
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 2: That's it. That covers everything. Thank you everybody for tuning in.

841
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 2: Thank you to the Action Network and bet mgm our sponsor.

842
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:14,919
Speaker 2: We'll be back again next week Wednesday morning with Big

843
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 2: Bets on campus. Until then joined the basketball and good luck.

844
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:36,360
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

845
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

846
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:42,320
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler