1 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:07,119 Speaker 1: This is Masters in Business with Barry Ridholds on Bloomberg 2 00:00:07,240 --> 00:00:12,640 Speaker 1: Radio this week on the podcast what Perfect Timing I 3 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:17,640 Speaker 1: Have Michael Murphy uh He is the founder of the 4 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 1: Right to Rise pac, a conservative pack that raised a 5 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 1: hundred million dollars for Jeb Bush and and conservative causes. 6 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: He has been the campaign manager for people as diverse 7 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:38,839 Speaker 1: as uh Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor of California, Mitt Romney, Governor 8 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: of Massachusetts, and presidential campaign candidate Jeb Bush who ran 9 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:49,480 Speaker 1: for the nomination of the Republican Party uh in and 10 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 1: and did not make it. The timing of this is perfect. 11 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: He is not only a conservative and a very successful 12 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: political and pain consultant and adviser, but he is a 13 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 1: person who has been watching elections for a long time. 14 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:13,679 Speaker 1: Full disclosure, he is a member of the Never Trump 15 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: group who think that um Donald Trump is not the 16 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: ideal candidate to be president of the United States. I 17 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: found this whole conversation to be quite fascinating for two reasons. First, 18 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:32,680 Speaker 1: we booked it six months ago having no idea, UM 19 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:36,040 Speaker 1: what would happen in the campaign. Because I thought we 20 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 1: were booking Michael Murphy, the technology newsletter writer and I 21 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 1: thought this was going to be an opportunity to geek 22 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 1: out about all things technology, software, telecommunication, etcetera. Instead, we 23 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: got lucky and we got the guy who is really 24 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 1: an extremely influential person, uh in the Republican Party. So 25 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 1: that's number one and number two. The time we booked this, 26 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 1: we had no idea who the nominee was going to be. 27 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: We had no idea, um about anything that was taking 28 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:11,360 Speaker 1: place on the political side. Uh. It's a pleasure to 29 00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 1: speak with somebody who is incredibly skilled about political communication, 30 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: about the way elections run, about the way successful campaigns 31 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: do certain things or don't do certain things. All told, 32 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: the timing of this could not be better. This will 33 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: broadcast before the first debate, the first presidential debate, and um, 34 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 1: it was really absolutely fascinating conversation about the state of 35 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: politics in modern America. So, with no further ado, here 36 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: is my conversation with campaign consultant Michael Murphy. This is 37 00:02:57,440 --> 00:03:02,359 Speaker 1: Masters in Business with Barry Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio. My 38 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:07,399 Speaker 1: special guest today is Mike Murphy. He is a Republican 39 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: political consultant. He advised Florida Governor Jeb Bush in the 40 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 1: current election. He previously has advised such luminaries as Massachusetts 41 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:23,799 Speaker 1: Governor Mitt Romney, U S Senator John McCain, California Governor 42 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 1: Arnold Schwarzenegger. John McCain privately called him Murphy stapils, so 43 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 1: that should give you some sense of his ability to 44 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: foretell the political future. He is a commentator on NBC's 45 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 1: Meet the Press and The Today's Show. Used to write 46 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 1: a column for Time magazine, and served as a fellow 47 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Governments Institute of Politics 48 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: and as I think I could fit safely say, you're 49 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 1: you're pretty much recognized as one of the GOP's most 50 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: successful consultants and innovators that affair statement. Yeah, I own 51 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: that until we lost the retro Rice superPAC for Jeb. 52 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 1: Now now I'm going to be a retired uh formerly 53 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 1: one of the great concils. But I had about twenty 54 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 1: nine winning statewide races and that got me pretty established. 55 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:12,119 Speaker 1: Mike Murphy, welcome to Bloomberg. So let's let's jump right 56 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 1: into your background, because I find it absolutely fascinating. You're 57 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 1: not even out of college. You and you decide, Hey, 58 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 1: I could at age twenty launched my own political consulting company. 59 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:28,600 Speaker 1: How did that help? Luckily it's an unregulated business. So 60 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 1: I was going to Georgetown, was in the Foreign Service school. 61 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: I grown up in Detroit, and I thought, wow, am 62 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 1: I gonna wind up in the auto industry, which was 63 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: kind of appealing. But I was really interested in international 64 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: relations and politics, so Georgetown was the place to be. 65 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 1: I was involved in the College Republicans. I was all 66 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:47,039 Speaker 1: about politics, and I got this internship at the old Nickpack, 67 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: the National Conservative play Clashing Committee, which had invented the 68 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 1: independent expenditure where a third group could run ads. And 69 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 1: so one day they fired the ad agency and they said, 70 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:59,240 Speaker 1: anybody here and anything about advertising? And I had been 71 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 1: like around a radio station a little bit in like 72 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 1: high school, so I of course said me, I'm an expert. 73 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,920 Speaker 1: And one thing led to another, and they said, because 74 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: it was low production budget stuff, all right, kid, make 75 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: an ad. And I didn't know what to do. So 76 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 1: I called up this ACE producer who had turned out 77 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 1: later had made one ad in his career, named Alex Costellanos, 78 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,919 Speaker 1: and out of that came Murphy and Castellanos. We started 79 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 1: making ads for these horrible, low budget campaigns because nobody 80 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: else would hire us, but some pack work and we 81 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: got lucky on a thing or two. And so I 82 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,719 Speaker 1: took a leave of absence my senior year. I gave 83 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: up being yelled at in Russian every morning by Colonel Piragoff, 84 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 1: the defector, who was trying to teach us Department of 85 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 1: Defense Russian you know which way to the tractor factory? 86 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:43,839 Speaker 1: Would you like some nylons for a picture of that factory? 87 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 1: And uh kind of ran away to join the circus 88 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 1: of campaign consultant. So what was the lucky ad that? 89 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 1: That was the big launch, which was the first one 90 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: that you you said, hey, we got something here. Well, 91 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 1: we we had we did some kind of fun stuff 92 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:01,719 Speaker 1: for these independent expenditure cam pains in the early eighties. 93 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 1: But then it was the eighties six campaign when Alex 94 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 1: and I really officially, you know, got together. We're working 95 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 1: for this, Uh Senator Steve Sims on Idaho. Everybody thought 96 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,599 Speaker 1: was gonna lose. This is a by election between between 97 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 1: presidential elections, right right, an off election. But still they 98 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 1: had the Senate races and six was a top tier 99 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: for the Republicans were these young guys and sims won 100 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: and some congressional races people thought would lose. We did 101 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 1: pretty well in and eight, six and eighty eight. That 102 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 1: put us on the map, and Alex and I went 103 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 1: off and we had a great run. We did a 104 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 1: bunch of stuff, and then in the mid nineties we 105 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 1: had probably the only amicable split up of a political 106 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 1: consulting partnership. Were still very close. He went off to 107 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:42,359 Speaker 1: do a lot. You see him on CNN. He's a 108 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: big time probably consultant. And I had a good run, 109 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 1: particularly with governors blue state governors. I worked for John 110 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:51,160 Speaker 1: Angler in my home state of Michigan, three term win there. 111 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:54,479 Speaker 1: I worked for Terry Branstead in Iowa about his forty 112 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 1: of term. We got a re election there, the Jeb 113 00:06:56,839 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 1: Bush race. And I did those statewidse Christine Todd Witman 114 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,160 Speaker 1: in Jersey. I just you know, had a great run 115 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 1: of I'm picking up the theme here. These are all 116 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:09,400 Speaker 1: pretty moderate GOP governors. Is that a coincidence or well? 117 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 1: I people keep calling me a squish, which is the 118 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 1: Republican word for moderate, But I'm a pretty right wing guy. 119 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 1: How I worked for Ali North, I mean I had 120 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 1: plenty of Alex came out of the helms machine down 121 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: in North Carolina. But I believe in the kind of 122 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,239 Speaker 1: conservatism that can win a swing state, which is something 123 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 1: that's kind of been lost in our party now. So I, um, 124 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 1: I consider myself pretty conservative, but I'm not at what 125 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 1: we like to call a paleocon. I'm not a cannon Republican. No, no, 126 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 1: that that's that's really interesting. So let's talk a little 127 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 1: bit about your pack. Right to Rise. This was looked 128 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 1: at as a juggernaut, a huge money making machine. Who 129 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: is the typical Right to Rise? Don't or describe them. 130 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 1: I don't mean, I'm not looking for a list of names, 131 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 1: but what what sort of person is this? Give us? 132 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 1: Some Democrats? Well, the way it kind of works in 133 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 1: the system now is you have a campaign for president, 134 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: but you're limited under law to take a limited amount 135 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,120 Speaker 1: of money only from people, not from business entities. So 136 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 1: you can take your twenty you know, seven hundred dollars 137 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: or whatever from an individual. All the campaigns there, for 138 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 1: at least most of them, would create a superpack which 139 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 1: can raise essentially unlimited money. So often your donors who 140 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 1: might give you the what we call the maxed out 141 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 1: federal check to your campaign, which is relatively small would 142 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 1: also give to the superpack. So we were very successful. 143 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 1: And the one campaign we won, and really Jeb one, 144 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 1: was the donor campaign, where you travel around the country, 145 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: meet people and convince them the back you not somebody else. 146 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 1: I mean the people who gave to us. Many of 147 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 1: them also met with Governor Walker when he was in 148 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 1: the race with Senator Rubio, Senator Cruz. You know, they 149 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 1: were it was a competition, and Jeb had the most 150 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 1: compelling vision. So the typical person, Uh, some were longtime 151 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:52,959 Speaker 1: party fundraisers who might write us a check for a 152 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars. We had, you know, a lot of those, 153 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 1: or fifty thousand dollars. You had a few of the 154 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:00,560 Speaker 1: real kind of super donors of the party who could 155 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 1: write I think our largest owner was over two million dollars. 156 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: Mike Fernandez, a healthcare executive down in Florida's big check. Yeah, 157 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: it's a big check. And these are successful people. Sometimes 158 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 1: it's private, family owned businesses. Uh. Sometimes they're they're folks 159 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: who just have always had an interest in politics. And 160 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:20,560 Speaker 1: some were new and there were people generally who knew 161 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 1: the governor, many from when Jeb was governor of Florida 162 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 1: was very successful or liked his vision that we weren't 163 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:27,559 Speaker 1: going to run a grievance campaign about who we're mad at, 164 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 1: and we're going to run a campaign in the primary 165 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 1: that we knew would be rocky, but we do it 166 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 1: in a way where we thought we could win a 167 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:36,679 Speaker 1: general election. The primary voters wanted something else. So now 168 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 1: we've got a candidate who was very strong in the primary, 169 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 1: but is in real trouble I believe in the general election. 170 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 1: I'm Barry Ridhults. You're listening to Master's in Business on 171 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. My guest today is Michael Murphy. He is 172 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: the founder of Rights A Rise. Is that right? I 173 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:56,440 Speaker 1: think my title? And you know we folded the pack down. 174 00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: We returned about eighteen of the money or excuse me, 175 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 1: about twelves a different No, no, no no, we we returned 176 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 1: our capital. But let's for this way. Nobody else has 177 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 1: ever returned to Diamond Rio takes. And we gave back 178 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 1: millions of dollars. And what was your title with the 179 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 1: and with the of the right to rize pack which 180 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 1: has now been wound down except as a legal entity 181 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:16,079 Speaker 1: because we get all the FBC audits after the gods, 182 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 1: you have to keep that around. And then in the 183 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 1: Bush campaign, what was your title? Uh, well, I was 184 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: Jeb's kind of senior strategist when he was running for governor. 185 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: Under the law, when in the presidential when you're doing 186 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 1: the superpack, you cannot legally talk to the campaign or 187 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:33,199 Speaker 1: it's one or the other you can do. That's really interesting. 188 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:35,839 Speaker 1: So so let's talk a little bit about this the 189 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 1: primary season, which was really kind of wacky. So really 190 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 1: it kicked off of me summer with the Fox News 191 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 1: hosted gop Um debate, and it was shocking. They came 192 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:54,439 Speaker 1: right at at Trump right out of the gate. In hindsight, 193 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,960 Speaker 1: it looks like that that approach backfired quite a bit. Well, 194 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 1: Trump had a constituency that was to put up with 195 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 1: a lot of heresy from Trump. In other words, he 196 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 1: could do things that were considered impolite or rude or offensive, 197 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 1: like attack and John McCain. Most people thought, under the 198 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 1: typical political rules, and I did too, that that would 199 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,319 Speaker 1: hurt him. It didn't among the third of the vote 200 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 1: that really liked him. The other two thirds not so sure. 201 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 1: Even today, Trump, by no means has all the Republicans 202 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:22,960 Speaker 1: lined up. But in a multi wait, you know, campaign 203 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 1: with fifteen sixteen candidates, if you can hold down to 204 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 1: a third, that's a ticket to the end. That's who happened. 205 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 1: And everybody doubted him far far far into the the process, 206 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 1: and in my mind's eye when he went on Jimmy 207 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 1: Fallon and did that mirror bit when the two of 208 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: them are, you know, it's Fallon pretended and he was so. 209 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: I know of him as a New Yorker full disclosure, 210 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:56,359 Speaker 1: I think he's an amusing guy, but not presidential timber. 211 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 1: But at that moment I turned to my wife and said, 212 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 1: this guy can win. This guy can win the primary. 213 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:04,559 Speaker 1: It was just and ever at the time, I don't 214 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:07,199 Speaker 1: think a lot of people really felt what most people thought, 215 00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: and I think the people running just about all the 216 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: campaigns is that Trump would be an interesting side show, 217 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:14,839 Speaker 1: but he'd fizzle out because there was another candidate who 218 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 1: would get what we call the grievance vote, which was 219 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 1: very large this year, to blow it all up, hate everything, 220 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: mad who who's the enemy? And that was Cruise. So 221 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,640 Speaker 1: most of us thought the real threat to the nomination, 222 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 1: who we were very worried about winning was Ted Cruz. 223 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 1: But Trump managed to kind of out muscle cruise with 224 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:34,440 Speaker 1: that big persona. Trump was also with the Hollywood people, 225 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 1: and that business would call a pre aware title, which 226 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 1: is when you're making a movie, now you go spend 227 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 1: four hundred million dollars in the marketing department comes up 228 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 1: to you and says, well, we could make you know, 229 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 1: Flowers of Ralph and spend four million explaining what the 230 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 1: movies about when we make iron Man eleven, and you 231 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:51,959 Speaker 1: don't have to have the same marketing iron Man eleven. 232 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,440 Speaker 1: That's why they're making movies called battleship or you know 233 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 1: these known titles. One title, you know exactly what it is. Yeah, 234 00:12:57,520 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 1: and Trump was a known title. Now, even if all 235 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 1: he was doing was teaching Gary Busey how to work 236 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:04,160 Speaker 1: a snow cone machine. He was on primetime TV every 237 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:06,959 Speaker 1: week forever in a set which, by the way, is 238 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 1: now the location of the campaign headquarters set. It's all 239 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 1: this new kind of politics where pop cultures crossed over. 240 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 1: But that created the identity where he was this super 241 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 1: business guy on television. Can do fire him? That persona. 242 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:22,599 Speaker 1: He was ratings. It is the news business, so he 243 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:26,680 Speaker 1: got more attention than anybody and that grievance formula, which 244 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 1: Jeff Bush would never go to do because one that 245 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:34,719 Speaker 1: he believes in, and Jeb knew that Trump's gonna lose 246 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 1: the general election. You know, the worst thing you want 247 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:38,679 Speaker 1: is to have a primary which is a drunken vendor. 248 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:41,600 Speaker 1: We wake up the next morning, you're blown a presidential election. 249 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 1: And that's what I believe we've done. So the parallels 250 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:50,080 Speaker 1: between sixteen are are similar. Nobody really gave Trump a 251 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:54,440 Speaker 1: shot in He went not all the not not that 252 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 1: very deep into the process, got a lot of brand recognition, 253 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:02,440 Speaker 1: capitalized it, and by some analyzes, the bulk of his 254 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 1: fortune came about post People will argue about that. But 255 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:12,560 Speaker 1: what made this primary so different? And to be to 256 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:17,959 Speaker 1: be blunt, I thought the run of folks other than 257 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 1: Mitt Romney was far crazier than this run of folks. 258 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 1: I mean, you had just that was not me, but 259 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 1: other people have called it a clown car, and it 260 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 1: was apparent, at least to some observers that Mitt Romney 261 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: was going to come out of that ahead. We didn't 262 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 1: quite have the same dynamic happen this. No, by the 263 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 1: traditional yardstick of folks who have done stuff, we had 264 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 1: a very heavy field. We had some big governors as 265 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 1: opposed to last time. We I think Romney is a 266 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 1: very serious guy did as governor's race, but there were 267 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 1: also some sideshow acts running. This time. It was the 268 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 1: candidates weren't as crazy, but the voters decided in the 269 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 1: Republican primary to be crazier. And you can see it 270 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:03,680 Speaker 1: on the Democratic side too with Bernie. There is such 271 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 1: a populace football going on in the country. The middle 272 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 1: class hasn't gotten a raise in real wages in a 273 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 1: long long time, and people have been mad at the 274 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 1: political system. Now for a decade. They're fed up. They 275 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 1: want to blow the whole thing up. I did Schwarzeninger's 276 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 1: campaign for governor of California, and I remember Sacramento in 277 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 1: that race for governor, when the voters of a Democratic 278 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 1: state reached in and yanked out the guy they just 279 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 1: elected and threw him out the window in a recall election. 280 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 1: Was the same kind of anger. The difference is Arnold 281 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 1: took the job really seriously. He got the best policy 282 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 1: people he could, starting with Warren Buffett, to work on 283 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 1: a big plan for what to do when he was governor. 284 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 1: That that's not Trump, He's pure seat of the pants, 285 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 1: you know. But people's the same. People look at Donald 286 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: as if he's just a big dumb actor, but he's not. 287 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: He's a smart guy. He's a savvy businessman. He owns 288 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 1: a ton of real estate. I'm not surprised that he 289 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 1: did exactly what you said in in California. In trude, 290 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 1: he's a planner. Arnold's always thinking out what's around the 291 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 1: corn a few steps ahead. Now, it's not a surprise 292 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 1: that in the midst of the financial crisis, um the 293 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 1: public didn't have much of an appetite for a private 294 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 1: equity guy. But what do we think about in you 295 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 1: have a career politician on one hand, and then you 296 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 1: have kind of a renegade on the other. Which way 297 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 1: is the public going to break? Well? The force that 298 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 1: pushes Trump forward is what we political types called the 299 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:30,600 Speaker 1: wrong track, which is two thirds or more of the 300 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 1: people think the country is off on the wrong track. 301 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: That means the election is going to be about new change, 302 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 1: blow up the system, and that is the win that 303 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 1: Trump can harness. Hillary is stuck being politics for forty years. 304 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,640 Speaker 1: She's a pre aware title to everybody knows who Hillary 305 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 1: Clinton has, They have for decades, but she represents, oh 306 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: my god, the old politics now the countervailing force. Though. 307 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 1: One is Trump's weaknesses. Trump's got a lot of Trump 308 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 1: driven problems. He ran a campaign designed to offend swing 309 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 1: voters that he needs to win the general election. It's 310 00:16:58,280 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 1: like he was building a lab to lose the like 311 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 1: they had strategy. The other problem Trump has his demography, 312 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 1: the election scale in the general election, those million people 313 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:10,640 Speaker 1: is increasingly a much more democratic group than it used 314 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:15,120 Speaker 1: to be. Of the voters will be minority voters and black, Latino, 315 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,879 Speaker 1: Asian or mixed race among that group, Trump right now 316 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: is losing by essentially infinity. So he's written off almost 317 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:26,159 Speaker 1: thirty percent of the vote, percent of which will probably 318 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 1: go to Hillary, maybe more so. Let me ask you 319 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 1: this question on that exact topic. So if you had 320 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 1: to come up with a percentage that we start with 321 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 1: the electoral college map and we look at everybody who 322 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: went out and voted for Romney. What percentage of Mitt 323 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 1: Romney voters are just gonna say, I'm not gonna pull 324 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,439 Speaker 1: the leave of Hillary, but I can't go vote for 325 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:53,919 Speaker 1: this guy. What percentage of Romney voters stay at home? Well, 326 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 1: I don't know about stay at home because there are 327 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 1: other places they can go. We got the Libertarians. They vote, 328 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:01,720 Speaker 1: but they don't vote in the presidential They vote down 329 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 1: ballot center races or house. But let me put it 330 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:07,720 Speaker 1: this way. I think Trump will lose at least ten 331 00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 1: percent of the people who pulled the lever for Romney. 332 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:17,119 Speaker 1: And that's that's something like fifty million. Yeah, it's a 333 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 1: couple of million people put it that way, less than 334 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:23,200 Speaker 1: what Romney's fifty But he may bring in some people 335 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 1: Romney didn't have to, you know. So there are two 336 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,320 Speaker 1: numbers there. But fundamentally, if you look at this polling, 337 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:32,639 Speaker 1: and there's constantly panic about polling because the media business 338 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 1: has to cover for eyeballs every day of the election, 339 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:38,120 Speaker 1: like it's the Hannenburg explosion. No matter what happens, it's 340 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:40,479 Speaker 1: the biggest thing in the world. We only hear about 341 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:45,119 Speaker 1: that one outlier poll, not day sirens go off because 342 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 1: they need the daily heat. That's where the clicks and 343 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 1: eyeballs come from. So they're in business too. So, But 344 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 1: if you look at the last thirty days of the polling, 345 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:55,719 Speaker 1: give or take a day, and you average it all together, 346 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 1: which real clear Politics dot Com will do. The Trump 347 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:04,479 Speaker 1: number has basically been forty two, forty one, forty two, 348 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 1: forty two, forty three, forty two, forty three times five. 349 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 1: He's been stuck down there because he's in this demographic 350 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 1: called to sack, where he's not getting what he ought to. 351 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 1: If college get white people, which Republicans normally win, Ronnie 352 00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:22,119 Speaker 1: won him by fourteen points, Democrat has not the Democrat 353 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 1: in a presidential election has not one white college educated males. 354 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:28,920 Speaker 1: And I don't know how many decades, right, And so 355 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 1: he's in trouble there, particularly I white college educated women, 356 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 1: who really are the most powerful swing vote. He's doing 357 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 1: great with blue collar white guys, he's increasingly write a 358 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 1: shrinking pool, and he's getting murdered by the thirty percent 359 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,240 Speaker 1: that's minority. So Trump is stuck in this low forties 360 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,200 Speaker 1: called the sack of demography. The reason the race looks 361 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:50,440 Speaker 1: close is one the media only covers horse race forty 362 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: two forty two, Well forty two forty two is the 363 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,800 Speaker 1: voters saying, we hate both these guys because a bag 364 00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 1: of cement can get forty with a D on it, 365 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:00,639 Speaker 1: and a bag of some with an hour on it 366 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 1: will get thirty nine So the question is the difference 367 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 1: between hillary is forty two and forty nine or Trump's 368 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: forty two and forty nine or fifty. Who are those people? Well, 369 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:14,200 Speaker 1: they look a lot more like democratle in voters than Republican. 370 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,400 Speaker 1: So the real action of this race has been Hillary 371 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:20,159 Speaker 1: going from the high forties and oh she's way ahead, 372 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 1: to Hillary doing something stupid or having a bad when 373 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:26,359 Speaker 1: they when they keep it a stage secret, the moment 374 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 1: is suddenly the new nuclear code. You can't tell anybody 375 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,359 Speaker 1: for seven hours after you face planting to the Scooby 376 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:35,240 Speaker 1: do van there on television Country. It's insane. But they 377 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:37,879 Speaker 1: get in trouble and the polls are basically a noise 378 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 1: meter what was on cable TV forties, So they ticked down. 379 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 1: So there's kind of a vix of polling going on. 380 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 1: It's mostly Hillary moving around. Trump's creeped up from forty 381 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,919 Speaker 1: one to forty three, but he's running out of voters, 382 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 1: and give him time, he'll find a way to he'll 383 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 1: offend him again, like again today in the news cycle, 384 00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 1: he's out, you know, attacking more people and the birth thing. 385 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 1: I can't believe that I thought that was behind us. 386 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,920 Speaker 1: I'm astonished that came up again. Is I think working 387 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:05,640 Speaker 1: on something today where he's going to try to get 388 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 1: out of it, but you know, he gets out of it, 389 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,120 Speaker 1: then he gets back in it, so he can't help himself. Yeah. 390 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 1: The question is can Hillary fix herself just to get 391 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 1: to her generic number and that's enough for her to win? 392 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 1: She would win because the generic number for them is 393 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 1: bigger than ours. Now. I'm Barry rid Hilts. You're listening 394 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 1: to Master's in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My special guest 395 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 1: today is GOP campaign strategist extraordinaire Michael Murphy. He has 396 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 1: advised pretty much everyone on the GOP side, from Jeb 397 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 1: Bush to the Governator Arnold Schwarzenegger, uh to Mitt Romney 398 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: to uh Um McCain. You were big with McCain in 399 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 1: two thousand. I did the two thousand campaign. I didn't 400 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 1: do two thousand and eight, and fermid I did the 401 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:49,440 Speaker 1: governor's race. People always hear my bio and say, so, 402 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 1: you're the idiot. No. No, I did the Straight Talk Express, 403 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 1: which did lose. But boy do we have fun. Let 404 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,880 Speaker 1: me ask you a so. So, I'm an odd political 405 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 1: duck growing up in New York Jacob Javits Republican, socially progressive, 406 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 1: fiscally conservative. I loved the two thousand John McCain holy 407 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:13,720 Speaker 1: unimpressed with George W. Bush. Here's a guy telling the truth, 408 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 1: the straight shooter he was. And then in oh eight 409 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,919 Speaker 1: that guy disappeared. What what happened? Well, I think he 410 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:23,640 Speaker 1: was the same guy, but he made the tough decision 411 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,880 Speaker 1: that everybody in politics eventually has to make because it's 412 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 1: a tough bracket and it is boy, I'd actually like 413 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:31,919 Speaker 1: to win the election so I can do some of 414 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:34,720 Speaker 1: this good stuff I believe in because he's the same guy. 415 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 1: And now I've got to be the standard bearer of 416 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 1: the party. Last time I got to run against the 417 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,720 Speaker 1: party and we had fun, met girls, drove around the 418 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 1: country and a bus. It was fantastic and we almost 419 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 1: stole the election. You know, we had it. We were 420 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:46,639 Speaker 1: halfway out of the bank and there were just a 421 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,760 Speaker 1: few too many cops. The second time, we tried the robbery. 422 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 1: Maybe we actually try to get out with the cash. 423 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 1: And so when John ran the second time, he ran 424 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,680 Speaker 1: a little bit more of a traditional Republican campaign, and 425 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,399 Speaker 1: guess what, he won the nomination. But it was not 426 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,280 Speaker 1: enough to win general election. And I think one thing 427 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 1: that hurt him a bit in the general was he'd 428 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 1: lost a little of that appeal. He had to cross 429 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:07,640 Speaker 1: over voters so much a part of what we didn't 430 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 1: he lost that The financial crisis tied him up. That 431 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:14,400 Speaker 1: was really there was the lets us suspend our campaign 432 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,720 Speaker 1: and rethink this and that that. That was the point 433 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 1: where it's pretty much and he was up against history 434 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,800 Speaker 1: of Barack Obama. The fact is the media love McCain. 435 00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:24,240 Speaker 1: I used to joke the media was our base. But 436 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 1: what the media really wants is a Republican murder boy. 437 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 1: He gave it to him and then they beheaded him. 438 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,200 Speaker 1: So who's the Democrat we're gonna be for? My personal thesis, 439 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 1: isn't The Iraq War was going bad. The financial crisis 440 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 1: was a disaster. As long as as the Democrats put 441 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,200 Speaker 1: somebody up who could form go here in sentences, it 442 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 1: was their race to lose. That was a really uphill 443 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 1: battle and the phenomena I'll never forget. You know, I'm 444 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,920 Speaker 1: still close to Mccainny's a great America and suppressive people 445 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 1: I ever met, and I went and visited him. You like, 446 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 1: it's okay that he was captured. You were write with that, Yeah, 447 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 1: I'm and I know, I know a lot of details. 448 00:23:58,720 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 1: I met some of the guys who were in the 449 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,679 Speaker 1: Annoy Hilton with them, or I stayed in a hotel 450 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,359 Speaker 1: ones where they don't leave a mint on the pillow. Well, 451 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:10,119 Speaker 1: Donald Trump, you know, I mean the deferments a lot. 452 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 1: I could go on for It's just discussed me. So 453 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 1: let me ask you. Let me take off my independent 454 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,440 Speaker 1: hat and put on a Democrat had for a second, Hey, 455 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 1: how much of this is just karma coming back from 456 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 1: the swift boat debacle? Is this? Can you really complain 457 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 1: about that? And I remember McCain defending Kerry, to his credit, 458 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:34,000 Speaker 1: was not a fan of the swift boat stuff. But 459 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 1: the party apparatus that approved the swift boat is it 460 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 1: a surprise that it devolved into this? Well, I don't know. 461 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,399 Speaker 1: I'm never a big believer in pulling the sweater thread 462 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 1: of one pain thing because then I got to go 463 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,240 Speaker 1: back to LBJ using an H bomb to terrify the 464 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 1: country about Verry Goldwater. So I do think the political 465 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,879 Speaker 1: culture has gotten courser, but Trump is an outlier. Trump 466 00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:01,639 Speaker 1: is breaking rules a sec civility let alone the truth. 467 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 1: He is the fact check meters in the in the 468 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 1: press have exploded. He broke the machine. How do you 469 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:12,120 Speaker 1: fact check the person who is an outlier? And everything's 470 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 1: a pivot. He's a Republican one day he's a conservative, 471 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 1: than he's a liberal. He goes. I mean, he doesn't 472 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:18,840 Speaker 1: believe in anything, Like a good con man, he's just 473 00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,360 Speaker 1: trying to get the room. Are you suggesting that he's 474 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,639 Speaker 1: a grifter? Is that? Is that what I'm hearing from. 475 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:25,639 Speaker 1: I can't say he's a grifter, but I think he 476 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:29,399 Speaker 1: has griffish tendencies. Griffish tendencies. All right, we'll see if 477 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,800 Speaker 1: that that makes it into the campaign. So let's talk 478 00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:37,160 Speaker 1: a little bit about the Jeb campaign. How surprising, I mean, 479 00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,920 Speaker 1: it looked like this was battle of the dynasty's, it 480 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,920 Speaker 1: was gonna be Hillary versus Jeb. How much of this 481 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 1: was just the forces you talked about earlier, that it 482 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 1: was the anti incumbent, and how much of this was 483 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 1: he just was rusting and off his game. Well, the 484 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,360 Speaker 1: voters are always more important than the campaigns because they 485 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,479 Speaker 1: decide what they want and they go find it, and 486 00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,239 Speaker 1: often what they find takes a while. So they can 487 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,840 Speaker 1: land on somebody, and then of course everybody's shocked and 488 00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:05,560 Speaker 1: amazed at what happened. But it was clear it was 489 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 1: going to be a grievance primary. And one of the 490 00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,840 Speaker 1: great secrets of the Jeb political operation is we were 491 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 1: bluffing a little bit in terms of what we knew 492 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:18,560 Speaker 1: how hard the Republican primary would be. Positive candidate like Jeb. Yeah, 493 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 1: but you don't run a campaign saying, hey, guess what 494 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 1: we think it's really gonna be uphill. You run a 495 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:24,840 Speaker 1: campaign saying we've raised the most money, we have the 496 00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:28,480 Speaker 1: most qualified guy be for what's gonna happen. We're trying 497 00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:32,200 Speaker 1: to muscle Rubio out k sake others. That was the strategy, 498 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,720 Speaker 1: because you don't leave off your weaknesses. But internally, I'll 499 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:38,119 Speaker 1: never forget. I had dinner with Jeb and Sally Bradshaw, 500 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:41,760 Speaker 1: who's Jeb's other longtime political person, a dear friend of mine, 501 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,280 Speaker 1: and his son and I will go into a private conversation, 502 00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,840 Speaker 1: but we all did the odds of winning. Early on 503 00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,199 Speaker 1: when we're thinking about this, and the guy who had 504 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 1: the lowest number at the table and none of us 505 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,960 Speaker 1: were over fifty percent Jet and we said well, then 506 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:57,880 Speaker 1: I have an idea. Why don't we order another round 507 00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,240 Speaker 1: of drinks and not run for president? And Jeff said, 508 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:01,879 Speaker 1: I I don't do it if I don't try to 509 00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,480 Speaker 1: run the kind of modern conservatism that can win the 510 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:08,160 Speaker 1: general election, get power to change the country with our policies, 511 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:09,879 Speaker 1: to lift everybody up. That's why we called it right 512 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,920 Speaker 1: to rise. Who will? I know, it's a long chatter. 513 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,480 Speaker 1: Who will fight the good fight. We're gonna get cruise otherwise, 514 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,240 Speaker 1: or you know, we'll get another grievance. Candidate Trump wasn't 515 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 1: around at that, so no one really was thinking, Oh, 516 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 1: Trump is the guy that's gonna Trump wasn't on the radar. Then. 517 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 1: We were much more worried about We're worried about the 518 00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,680 Speaker 1: kind of forces in the party that picked Trump in 519 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 1: the end. But we thought they'd grab on the cruise 520 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 1: and we'd run a grievance campaign the Republican Party and 521 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,120 Speaker 1: we'd blow the general election. We'd hand the White House 522 00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,960 Speaker 1: to Hillary Clinton, who's eminently beautiful, and we set the 523 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:40,840 Speaker 1: party way back at a time when we needed the 524 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 1: opposite and the country needed our ideas, at least our 525 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:46,439 Speaker 1: Bush conservative ideas, which is about fixing a lot of 526 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,880 Speaker 1: things that don't work in the country with free markets 527 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:51,440 Speaker 1: and other things we believe in. So we always knew 528 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,360 Speaker 1: it was more of a crazy long shot and anybody thought, 529 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 1: but we can never say that publicly because it would 530 00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,960 Speaker 1: undermine our attempt to muscle our way through. Now that's 531 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:00,879 Speaker 1: ad Jeb, if he were here, would be the first 532 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 1: to say I was rusty out of the box. He was. 533 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:06,040 Speaker 1: I was not in perfect candidate shape, not at all. 534 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,000 Speaker 1: But I mean people say, well, would you have done 535 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,120 Speaker 1: anything different? Because I can think of a hundred things 536 00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 1: we would have done different and we would have lost differently. 537 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,919 Speaker 1: You know, it's weird. I'm in a business where you 538 00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 1: live by winning and losing, and I've been spoiled. I 539 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,800 Speaker 1: want a ton of campaigns over here. Had some losses. 540 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 1: Like everybody, you learn a lot in your losses. You 541 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 1: actually learn more than you're doing. We're the same is 542 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,400 Speaker 1: true in the world investing you and you you walk 543 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,240 Speaker 1: into a casino, you win, Hey, you're a genius. When 544 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:33,119 Speaker 1: you walk out, you lose. It requires a very different 545 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,639 Speaker 1: bit of self reflection. But I can tell you the 546 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:39,040 Speaker 1: Jeb folks, even though we had the resources, thank God 547 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,719 Speaker 1: for that Jeb worked very hard. The finance people did. 548 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:43,160 Speaker 1: We had a great team, many of them here in 549 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 1: New York, so we had the dollars to make our case, 550 00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,880 Speaker 1: but they were not buying what we were selling. So 551 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:52,040 Speaker 1: weirdly enough, even though we all hate losing, believe me 552 00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:56,440 Speaker 1: so pathologically, we sleep pretty well because there's nothing Jeb 553 00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,280 Speaker 1: Bush did in that campaign we have to apologize. He 554 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,680 Speaker 1: ran an honorable campaign. He out out at the appropriate moment, 555 00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,720 Speaker 1: even overstay. Uh, there's not a lot of things you 556 00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,720 Speaker 1: can really We weren't other than Mexican rapists. We weren't 557 00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,840 Speaker 1: lying to people. Trump's tried to steal our immigration plan 558 00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 1: on days when he's four immigration reform, which is about 559 00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 1: one out of three. Um, you know, so fought our corner, 560 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,760 Speaker 1: fought it hard, worked like dogs, Jeb in particular, and 561 00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,480 Speaker 1: guess what we lost. Life will go on. But if, 562 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,320 Speaker 1: as I think the numbers are gonna show that Hillary 563 00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,800 Speaker 1: Clinton will be sworn in as the next president, you know, 564 00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:30,320 Speaker 1: am I gonna be saying I told you saw a 565 00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:33,160 Speaker 1: little damn right. So let me ask you three questions 566 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:37,920 Speaker 1: about Jeb that really stood out. The first was very 567 00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:43,400 Speaker 1: surprised that he was seemingly unprepared for a question about 568 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:48,000 Speaker 1: his brother's administration the Iraq War. That that kind of 569 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,480 Speaker 1: surprised me that that wasn't off the tip of his 570 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,560 Speaker 1: um head, the top of his head, tip of his fingers. 571 00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 1: Did did you? I know you weren't working directly with 572 00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,280 Speaker 1: the kids around them. That was before I went to 573 00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:03,000 Speaker 1: the super That was a situation where we all knew 574 00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:06,040 Speaker 1: from minute one what the answer the press wanted to 575 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,480 Speaker 1: hear to say. He's quote answered it right, you know, 576 00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,520 Speaker 1: because the press it was the worst thing ever. And 577 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:16,320 Speaker 1: you know the problem is, like a lot of governors, 578 00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:17,880 Speaker 1: Jeb had written a lot of letters, made a lot 579 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:19,640 Speaker 1: of phone call the people that their loved ones killed 580 00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:21,920 Speaker 1: in action fighting for our country. And he wasn't in 581 00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 1: a big hurry to say yeah, it didn't mean anything. 582 00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 1: And so he again what would make him a great 583 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:30,760 Speaker 1: president but did not always make him the perfect machine 584 00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,920 Speaker 1: tool candidate. Was he pushed back for a few days 585 00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:36,280 Speaker 1: that he didn't want to like run to Berry the 586 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,440 Speaker 1: sacrifice of people by trying to separate that from just 587 00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 1: the policy mistakes that were made. And he did say 588 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,120 Speaker 1: policy mistakes were made, but he didn't leap to it 589 00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,240 Speaker 1: with glee the way the media narrative would like. So 590 00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:48,280 Speaker 1: what does that mean? It means you get scored his 591 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,560 Speaker 1: bumbling idiot for four days by the process press, the 592 00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,280 Speaker 1: same people who are hyper ventilating today about polling data 593 00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,640 Speaker 1: as Trump becomes the president of September eighteen. You know, 594 00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:00,840 Speaker 1: so again I draw analogy to the business world. There 595 00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:05,040 Speaker 1: is a lot like value investing and the daily panic, 596 00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:08,760 Speaker 1: the daily herd is something you have to resist strategically, 597 00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 1: but it rules the press. So it's a voting machine 598 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:13,800 Speaker 1: short term and a wing machine long term. Yeah, and 599 00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:15,600 Speaker 1: if you can figure out the net asset value of 600 00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 1: an electorate, you're going to do well. So second question 601 00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:24,640 Speaker 1: related to the Jib primary. Donald Trump comes out and 602 00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,120 Speaker 1: Jeb says, well, you know, my brother kept the country safe. 603 00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:33,240 Speaker 1: And then Donald Trump comes out with what is not 604 00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:37,040 Speaker 1: just a democratic talking point, but a far left talking point. 605 00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 1: September eleventh happened on your brother's watch. You your brothern 606 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:44,120 Speaker 1: keep the country safe. I'm in New York and three 607 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:49,040 Speaker 1: thousand people died. That's unheard of amongst Republicans. And what 608 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,040 Speaker 1: was the reaction to that. Well, in the room where 609 00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 1: it happened, he was roundly boot Trump was you know, 610 00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,480 Speaker 1: he was in the debate. Yeah, yeah, and we you know, 611 00:31:56,520 --> 00:32:00,520 Speaker 1: a contributions surged, all the normal stuff. Really, but again 612 00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:03,320 Speaker 1: Trump Trump was the creature at the beginning of about 613 00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 1: the primary electorate, and then it grew to the mid 614 00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:09,520 Speaker 1: thirties and they were ready. I mean, we tested all 615 00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:11,920 Speaker 1: this stuff. We do polls and focus groups of Trump 616 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:14,960 Speaker 1: voters and they were locked in. They were like, what 617 00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,960 Speaker 1: he said. I mean, the GOP candidate has never said 618 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:19,920 Speaker 1: anything like that. Yeah, but he was not. And this 619 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:21,640 Speaker 1: was the big surprise to those of us because the 620 00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:25,719 Speaker 1: last thousand times you've done a campaign, the ideological primary 621 00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,600 Speaker 1: voters vote ideology, and you know, Trump could be wearing 622 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:32,560 Speaker 1: a Carl Marks suit and the pent that he really had. 623 00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,360 Speaker 1: They wouldn't go anywhere. They're like, look, he's my guy. 624 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,240 Speaker 1: He gets the issue, and then you feel the race 625 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,040 Speaker 1: in the room. They would not quite say it, but 626 00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,400 Speaker 1: the whole thing was he knows what the problem is, 627 00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:45,600 Speaker 1: if you know what I mean, wink wink. So I 628 00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:48,320 Speaker 1: don't care what you fancy pants college jerk say about 629 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:52,120 Speaker 1: him with your whatever you said n. Eighty nine. He's 630 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,240 Speaker 1: my guy. Screw you. And you know, maybe some of 631 00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,240 Speaker 1: you guys will get thrown in the camps. I mean 632 00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,760 Speaker 1: it was rough. There's some rough voters out there in Trump. Now. 633 00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 1: He came out and said I could shoot someone a 634 00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:03,880 Speaker 1: fifth Avenue and my people are still gonna support me. 635 00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:07,040 Speaker 1: That that's you're saying, that's true, and that was the 636 00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:08,640 Speaker 1: core of the core. I want to be fair to 637 00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,280 Speaker 1: most Trump voters here. I don't. I blame the con man, 638 00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:13,200 Speaker 1: not the marks. I think there are a lot of 639 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:16,040 Speaker 1: people who are for Trump. The vast majority love the 640 00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,480 Speaker 1: country and really think he is a way to change 641 00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:20,920 Speaker 1: it for the better. But back in those primary days, 642 00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:24,200 Speaker 1: at the beginning, there was some rough elements in that world, 643 00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:27,560 Speaker 1: and they were ready to take almost any rhetoric from Trump, 644 00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:31,240 Speaker 1: and some of them really loved the roughest rhetoric about 645 00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:33,440 Speaker 1: the Mexican rapist coming in and all that that was. 646 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:37,920 Speaker 1: That's yeah. So the last Trump related question with Jeb 647 00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:42,400 Speaker 1: um he has a aside from the fact that he's 648 00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:47,440 Speaker 1: a talented television presence and personality, he has a way 649 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:53,440 Speaker 1: of crazy Bernie Crooked Hillary, little little Marco lion ted 650 00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:58,960 Speaker 1: and he came at Jeb with low energy. What was 651 00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:02,840 Speaker 1: the reaction to that, because Jeb stands up there and 652 00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,680 Speaker 1: you're not supposed to be doing a dance at the podium. 653 00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 1: You're supposed to be articulating intelligent policy positions. What was 654 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:12,160 Speaker 1: a code word? You know? I was screaming at the TV. 655 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:15,080 Speaker 1: I couldn't talk to the campaign. But how about needy Donald, 656 00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:20,480 Speaker 1: you know, because there's no needy or political life the 657 00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:23,960 Speaker 1: low energy Jeb one. People who know Jeb all went 658 00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,640 Speaker 1: nuts because he's He's not a low energy guy. If 659 00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,200 Speaker 1: Trump was on Jeb schedule for two days during the primary, 660 00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:32,719 Speaker 1: Trump would be in the hospital. Um the But he's 661 00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:37,000 Speaker 1: the healthiest presidential candidate ever, and he's the energizer bunny. 662 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,600 Speaker 1: He used to the year old staff couldn't keep up 663 00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:41,600 Speaker 1: with him the workload when he was governor. But it 664 00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:44,040 Speaker 1: wasn't about low energy. That was a code word for 665 00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:47,239 Speaker 1: smarty pants talking with the big words. When I'm going 666 00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,440 Speaker 1: to tell you what's really going on, Mexican rapists are 667 00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,960 Speaker 1: coming over the border. What Jeb's talking about, Well, it's 668 00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:53,680 Speaker 1: an act of love, frankly, when they come into the 669 00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:55,400 Speaker 1: country to try to get their families a life as 670 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,480 Speaker 1: an American. Jeb. Jeb was civil and polite, and that 671 00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:01,920 Speaker 1: was a code for low energy with with Spanish members 672 00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,680 Speaker 1: of his families. Of course he's going to push back. 673 00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:09,400 Speaker 1: So that that was that was Trump's code for other 674 00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:13,360 Speaker 1: jeb uses big words, and you know he's not he 675 00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:19,239 Speaker 1: doesn't have my grievance anger, and so it really meant 676 00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,880 Speaker 1: polite and thoughtful, which was frankly not what fort pent 677 00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,160 Speaker 1: of the primary wanted this year. I jokeer was like 678 00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,880 Speaker 1: selling opera records that attractor poll. They just weren't buying it. 679 00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:30,839 Speaker 1: And it's too bad because of jebb or nominee right now, 680 00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,279 Speaker 1: or I'll say, in fairness case sake, we'd be up 681 00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:35,000 Speaker 1: three or four in Hillary on our way to win 682 00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:37,480 Speaker 1: the election and probably get the center reelected. I'm Barry 683 00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,720 Speaker 1: rid Hults. You're listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. 684 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,759 Speaker 1: My special guest today is Michael Murphy. He is a 685 00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:49,080 Speaker 1: Republican political consultant, most recently known for the Right to 686 00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:56,440 Speaker 1: Rise Superpack. He has advised Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Arnold Schwarzenegger, 687 00:35:57,120 --> 00:36:01,280 Speaker 1: John McCain, and now runs the fabulous podcasts called Radio 688 00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,960 Speaker 1: Free GP. Radio Free GP. You can find that on 689 00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,880 Speaker 1: iTunes and pretty much all the usual places so so 690 00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:10,800 Speaker 1: let's jump right in to the to the general election. 691 00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:17,520 Speaker 1: What what does the Trump campaign mean for future elections 692 00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:21,319 Speaker 1: and non politicians. Well, we have It's interesting because we 693 00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:25,040 Speaker 1: have this crossover now pop culture into politics. We had 694 00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,839 Speaker 1: a little bit of Arnold back into that shore in California, 695 00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,239 Speaker 1: but this is a whole new level. I'm terrified at 696 00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,720 Speaker 1: Kardashian right now is looking at a map of New Hampshire. 697 00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:36,640 Speaker 1: But then we have We've had Sonny Bono, We've had athletes, 698 00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:40,760 Speaker 1: we've had the guy from George back when Ronald Reagan 699 00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:43,640 Speaker 1: was an actor originally, so oh, of course that's the 700 00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,960 Speaker 1: ultimate pop crossover, right exactly. Actually did the campaign in 701 00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,879 Speaker 1: the primary against Fred Grandy, who was from The Love Body, 702 00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:52,840 Speaker 1: ran for governor and I'll never get poor Fred. We 703 00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:55,080 Speaker 1: ran a radio campaign when we found out he'd been 704 00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:57,840 Speaker 1: a liberal Democrat in Hollywood. Fred Grandy, he may be 705 00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,680 Speaker 1: a better actor, and we think so. The actor thing 706 00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:03,080 Speaker 1: actually became an issue in that primary where we have 707 00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,200 Speaker 1: to beat him of Governor Brandstead, but he was a 708 00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:08,520 Speaker 1: pretty distinguished Republican congressman for a long time. I do 709 00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:11,319 Speaker 1: think we're going to see more crossover and there will 710 00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:14,840 Speaker 1: be kind of Trump imitators, but it's hard to imitate 711 00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:18,200 Speaker 1: Trump one he is so preaware and so famous and 712 00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,880 Speaker 1: to his blustering style, which both helps him by attracting 713 00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:25,080 Speaker 1: attention and hurts him by offending voters he desperately needs 714 00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:28,160 Speaker 1: to win a general election. Is a hard thing to replicate. 715 00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:30,880 Speaker 1: But he has put his claw print on this, no 716 00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:33,000 Speaker 1: doubt about it, and it will be felt in the future. 717 00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:37,600 Speaker 1: So you've worked with with the media and through the media. 718 00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:41,279 Speaker 1: What is the media circus of a presidential campaign? Like, 719 00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:44,960 Speaker 1: what what does the average listener at home not know 720 00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:48,880 Speaker 1: about this? This mayhem um that it's a big mob 721 00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:52,920 Speaker 1: that watches itself. So there's a huge herd mentality, and 722 00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,000 Speaker 1: it's running against a clock of now now now, because 723 00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:58,480 Speaker 1: with digital media has changed. Is the old days where 724 00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:00,240 Speaker 1: he had the deadline at night and then the payper 725 00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,640 Speaker 1: and now the new cycle is instantaneous Twitter, you know 726 00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,359 Speaker 1: the various social media platforms. It never ends. So they 727 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:10,399 Speaker 1: they are like a herd of buffalo running looking one 728 00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:14,600 Speaker 1: ft ahead, just just watching each other, thundering towards anything. 729 00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:16,480 Speaker 1: The old joke I used to tell, which is kind 730 00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:18,680 Speaker 1: of unfair to my friends in the media, is They're 731 00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:21,759 Speaker 1: kind of like the Jurassic Park dinosaur there, forty ft tall, 732 00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,960 Speaker 1: five ft teeth and a brain about the size of 733 00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:28,560 Speaker 1: a grapefruit. And when they see movement, they want to 734 00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:31,480 Speaker 1: go sniff it and eat it. So when something happens 735 00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:33,400 Speaker 1: in the campaign, they see his movement, you know, this 736 00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:36,840 Speaker 1: herd of Jurassic Park dinosaurs, they thunder over and probably 737 00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:41,160 Speaker 1: destroy whatever it is with investigation. So whatever the movement 738 00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,120 Speaker 1: of the day is, be at the candidate falling in 739 00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:48,440 Speaker 1: an orchestra pit, or Trump trade, some phony trip to Mexico. Uh, 740 00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:51,120 Speaker 1: they thunder and cover the hell out of it, because 741 00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:54,319 Speaker 1: every day has to be a big day to go now. 742 00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:58,600 Speaker 1: To give them some credit, there are stronger, more important 743 00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:02,000 Speaker 1: themes and analysis that does happen that kind of floats above. 744 00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:04,480 Speaker 1: But I would say they've been a bit flummixed by 745 00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:08,319 Speaker 1: Trump because the old media weapon of the raised eye 746 00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:10,759 Speaker 1: brow that's really not quite true, sir, That used to 747 00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,400 Speaker 1: send most people in public life to like, well I 748 00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:16,640 Speaker 1: I I, you know, and back off. Trump's oblivious to it. 749 00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,560 Speaker 1: He just doubles down on whatever misstatement he just made up. 750 00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:22,279 Speaker 1: And they haven't quite found a way to push back 751 00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,480 Speaker 1: because the mural book is they can't say that's a 752 00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:27,120 Speaker 1: bald faced lie. You can, man, have you noticed trained 753 00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:30,320 Speaker 1: not to do that. I've noticed that CNN, of all stations, 754 00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:33,919 Speaker 1: is running on the crawl like a real time fact check. 755 00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:38,520 Speaker 1: Know what he said is that that's unthinkable with any 756 00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,400 Speaker 1: other candidate. Yeah, well, it's kind of like it's the 757 00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:44,760 Speaker 1: World heavyweight boxing Championship and one of the boxers walks 758 00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:47,040 Speaker 1: in with a chainsaw and starts slicing at the other guy, 759 00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,279 Speaker 1: and the refs are saying no, and he slices the 760 00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:53,520 Speaker 1: ref and the crowd screaming and then stop. Yeah, it's like, 761 00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:55,480 Speaker 1: but wait a minute, you've just broken the rules of 762 00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:57,719 Speaker 1: there are no rules, and then the ratings go through 763 00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:00,520 Speaker 1: the roof, and maybe there are no rules. So let 764 00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:04,239 Speaker 1: me flip the question on you, Um, what does the 765 00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:07,520 Speaker 1: media get right? What sort of coverage have you seen 766 00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:11,040 Speaker 1: that you've said to yourself, Hey, this is really insightful. 767 00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:13,719 Speaker 1: They do two things really well. One, even though it 768 00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:16,200 Speaker 1: isn't insane heard and a lot of the analysis I 769 00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:22,560 Speaker 1: see on television drives me crazy against silly. They cover 770 00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:24,719 Speaker 1: it around the clock, wall to wall. So if you 771 00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:27,200 Speaker 1: want to know what kind of tie Donald Trump is 772 00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:29,400 Speaker 1: wearing today and the words he said just clip on 773 00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:33,439 Speaker 1: table TV, cable TV, or the internet. So it's you're 774 00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:36,440 Speaker 1: there and they use the technology and the resources they 775 00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:39,080 Speaker 1: have to put you in the campaign. You can actually 776 00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:42,040 Speaker 1: cover the campaign now without traveling really even as a journalist, 777 00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:45,480 Speaker 1: because it is so accessible electronically, so you have an 778 00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:47,400 Speaker 1: unfiltered view of the whole thing that you've got to 779 00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:50,000 Speaker 1: sort out. The problem is there's a lot of bad, 780 00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:52,920 Speaker 1: dumb analysis, but we get a level of kind of 781 00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:56,680 Speaker 1: transparency to what happened that day that is unheard of 782 00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,920 Speaker 1: fifteen years ago in politics even ten Who is doing 783 00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:03,920 Speaker 1: the sort of deep dive research that the impresses you, 784 00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:05,759 Speaker 1: what have you seen that? I would say that's the 785 00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:08,200 Speaker 1: second thing. There are some people who are old pros 786 00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:11,479 Speaker 1: who are writing smart political coverage with context or what's 787 00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:14,520 Speaker 1: really going on, not the daily trivia chase. I'm saying 788 00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:17,320 Speaker 1: the Prince side. Jonathan Martin at the New York Times 789 00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:19,920 Speaker 1: does a great job. There are others are Maggie Haberman 790 00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:23,880 Speaker 1: a bunch of their they do it's a left wing newspaper. 791 00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:28,080 Speaker 1: But the news folks covering the analysis of the campaign. 792 00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:30,520 Speaker 1: I think there's some strong people there the Post. There's 793 00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:34,280 Speaker 1: a great beat reporter who covers the charity issue. Yeah, 794 00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:39,480 Speaker 1: I remember his name. He's called like four How brilliant 795 00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:41,960 Speaker 1: is this? This guy has called like thirty charities a day. 796 00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:44,439 Speaker 1: Have you received any money from Donald Trump? The Post? 797 00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:48,360 Speaker 1: He's found one five thousand dollar donation out of a 798 00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:51,480 Speaker 1: great job on that. Bob Costa is a good shoe 799 00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:54,680 Speaker 1: leather campaign gossip. Who's fighting who in the elevator? What's 800 00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:56,719 Speaker 1: really going on? He's one of the few guys deep 801 00:41:56,760 --> 00:42:00,400 Speaker 1: sources in these the Banana Republic of the Trump campaign. 802 00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:03,000 Speaker 1: There's no campaign. It's a Banana Republican. A lot of 803 00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:05,560 Speaker 1: things they say about what's happening are not that true, 804 00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:08,160 Speaker 1: and he's well sourced there. I think Dan Balls has 805 00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:10,560 Speaker 1: always been the thoughtful, big picture slowdown. I've seen a 806 00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:14,160 Speaker 1: lot of elections and he's at the Post. Ron Brownstein 807 00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:17,640 Speaker 1: at the National Journal is probably the best guy in demography, 808 00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:19,839 Speaker 1: which is always the motor of what's really going on. 809 00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:22,160 Speaker 1: If you want to kind of read the balance sheet 810 00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,520 Speaker 1: of the candidates with the reality of who really they're 811 00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:26,560 Speaker 1: probably gonna have in the end, if you know the 812 00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,799 Speaker 1: use of investing analogy Bronstein is very good at that. 813 00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:32,319 Speaker 1: And you know there are others. I mean, what about 814 00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:37,879 Speaker 1: the new media like um, Politico, Vox, BuzzFeed, Vice, any 815 00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:41,360 Speaker 1: of that stuff thrush at the Politico I think breaks 816 00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:43,640 Speaker 1: some stuff. I'm generally not a political fan because they're 817 00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:46,680 Speaker 1: in the often in the trivia and gossip business. They're 818 00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:50,600 Speaker 1: kind of the Hollywood reporter, the old Hollywood reporter of politics. Uh, 819 00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:52,879 Speaker 1: and so they'd really like to know who's fighting over 820 00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:55,239 Speaker 1: the Cafeterian menu in the campaign. And they're they're quick 821 00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:58,560 Speaker 1: to blast stuff out that's weekly sourced some sometimes, so 822 00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:00,560 Speaker 1: let's sometimes they get it right. So I don't want 823 00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:03,120 Speaker 1: to be too unfair to him, So let's talk about 824 00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:07,200 Speaker 1: the about the campaign nitty gritty, because you just you 825 00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:09,480 Speaker 1: just dropped something I want to follow up on that 826 00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:12,520 Speaker 1: there isn't a whole lot of campaign there. I keep 827 00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:17,239 Speaker 1: reading that Hillary has this massive machinery and they have 828 00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:20,880 Speaker 1: fifty offices in each of these of the fifty states, 829 00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:23,560 Speaker 1: and the get out the vote and all that sort 830 00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:27,480 Speaker 1: of stuff. They run like a finally tuned machine. And 831 00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,480 Speaker 1: he seems to be spending money in Virginia, which doesn't 832 00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:31,960 Speaker 1: make a whole lot of sense to me. But all 833 00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:35,799 Speaker 1: the conventional rules of this. Hillary has the big, complicated 834 00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:38,480 Speaker 1: campaign of the massive staff doing all the traditional things. 835 00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,400 Speaker 1: She's like the dog food company with the best satellite 836 00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:45,600 Speaker 1: aim trucks, jingles, you know, sung by Lassie. She's got everything. 837 00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:48,080 Speaker 1: The only problem is your crack open the dog food. 838 00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:50,840 Speaker 1: The dogs sniffet and they wine and run the other direction. 839 00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:53,640 Speaker 1: So but she has all the machinery and distribution, and 840 00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:56,359 Speaker 1: that is worth something. Trump has no campaign. He has 841 00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:59,240 Speaker 1: a couple of yes men who circle him yes women, 842 00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,960 Speaker 1: but it's all Trump. And the mechanics of the campaign 843 00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:05,360 Speaker 1: are an advanced operation because what Trump really wants is 844 00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:08,160 Speaker 1: somewhere to land the plane, somewhere to have a hall 845 00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:10,839 Speaker 1: full of an adoring throng to cheer, and he'll do 846 00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,160 Speaker 1: his routine. He kind of does his like stand up 847 00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:18,000 Speaker 1: Don Rickles meats whatever he is um Juan Perrone and 848 00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:20,200 Speaker 1: and you know that's the whole Trump campaign. So when 849 00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:21,680 Speaker 1: Trump has a big idea like hey, I'm gonna go 850 00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:25,200 Speaker 1: to an African American church and take on Hillary, great 851 00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:28,360 Speaker 1: media chump. You know, oh boy cat bites dog Republican 852 00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:31,040 Speaker 1: an African American community, Let's they're cover the hell out 853 00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:33,440 Speaker 1: of it. But you need a real campaign operation to 854 00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:35,880 Speaker 1: go find an African American church where pastors willing to 855 00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,080 Speaker 1: let you do a political speech, which by the way, 856 00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:43,160 Speaker 1: actually happens all the time in churches. But need depth 857 00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,719 Speaker 1: of field. And to figure that out. With Trump, the 858 00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:47,399 Speaker 1: advanced guys come in and say, all right, this will 859 00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:50,400 Speaker 1: be his whold room. Here's the special meat loaf, here's 860 00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,520 Speaker 1: the coffee, here's the signs. And they find out they 861 00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:55,640 Speaker 1: pick a pastor who shut him down because the thing 862 00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:58,600 Speaker 1: was not they couldn't execute it well. And so any 863 00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:02,000 Speaker 1: question of execution, be it policy, be it a digital 864 00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:05,160 Speaker 1: campaign that means anything for you know, the mobile devices 865 00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:08,359 Speaker 1: that are increasingly the front window on so much in communication, 866 00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:12,280 Speaker 1: including campaigns, all that stuff. They've got nothing. They they're 867 00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:14,680 Speaker 1: doing a few poles. They got people trying to talk 868 00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:16,200 Speaker 1: him in being just saying they got like one and 869 00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:17,759 Speaker 1: a half speech writers who can put him on a 870 00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:20,359 Speaker 1: prompter that he'll ignore half the time. But it's like 871 00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:24,560 Speaker 1: a bad congressional campaign level of technical competence. How important 872 00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:27,719 Speaker 1: is so he has this huge Twitter following, and I 873 00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:32,440 Speaker 1: will admit his tweets are amusing. Sometimes they're um I 874 00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:34,520 Speaker 1: want to figure out who writes them. Well, you could 875 00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:38,480 Speaker 1: tell there was it was. BuzzFeed said, when it's at 876 00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:40,520 Speaker 1: the bottom of each tweet, you could see was just 877 00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:44,240 Speaker 1: tweeted on an iPhone or an Android device. It turns 878 00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:48,400 Speaker 1: out that when it's on the Android device, it's his staff, 879 00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:50,839 Speaker 1: and when it's on the iPhone him and you could 880 00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,800 Speaker 1: see one one is very clearly angrier and and a 881 00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:55,839 Speaker 1: little more bullying, and the other one is a little 882 00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:59,279 Speaker 1: more circumspecting, a little more. I think he probably the 883 00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:02,880 Speaker 1: hoope picks who kind of his press valet, uh and 884 00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,040 Speaker 1: send out a Twitter, you know, and he barks out 885 00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:07,480 Speaker 1: something and maybe she tries to clean it up a little. So, 886 00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:12,160 Speaker 1: but how significant is Twitter to the national campaign? Is 887 00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:15,920 Speaker 1: this something that uh, the inside baseball people like and 888 00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:18,880 Speaker 1: are really impressed but the public doesn't care about. Or 889 00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:21,920 Speaker 1: is Twitter affecting the election? Twitter is a very fast 890 00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,799 Speaker 1: electronic bulletin board that all the reporters used to kind 891 00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:27,719 Speaker 1: of watch stuff. I'm at Murphy Mike and I do 892 00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:30,680 Speaker 1: it all the time. I've got over fifty thou followers 893 00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:32,880 Speaker 1: and I've never said my Twitter handle on television. It's 894 00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:35,840 Speaker 1: kind of weird. It just organically grows. Sure, but you 895 00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:37,560 Speaker 1: also get a lot of people who are just they 896 00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:40,319 Speaker 1: think they're digital warriors, and so they're barking at other 897 00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:43,080 Speaker 1: people and that sort of kind of graffiti on Twitter. 898 00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:45,400 Speaker 1: That's what the mute button is for, right, No, exactly. 899 00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:47,560 Speaker 1: My favorite thing on the Twitter feed. Um, I love 900 00:46:47,600 --> 00:46:49,560 Speaker 1: throwing people off the island. I figured they don't pay 901 00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:52,480 Speaker 1: to follow me. I get to fire people who are annoying, 902 00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:55,560 Speaker 1: get muted people who are intellectually dishonest. I block and 903 00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:57,799 Speaker 1: leave it at that. I kill people who do I 904 00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:00,960 Speaker 1: can't kill, block or mute them when they do bad puns. 905 00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:03,960 Speaker 1: I'm I'm tired of stupid and funny puns. That's a 906 00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:06,640 Speaker 1: real bush league move, you know. It's like really yeah, 907 00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:09,440 Speaker 1: yeah that, you know, work a little harder on the jokes. 908 00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:12,000 Speaker 1: So Twitter is a good way to get a message 909 00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:14,719 Speaker 1: out quickly. But in the mass voter world, the other 910 00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:18,799 Speaker 1: social media is much more powerful. Facebook, Facebook, and increasingly 911 00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:22,600 Speaker 1: Snapchat and some of the even pin est because what 912 00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:25,759 Speaker 1: Facebook does and all the social media does is they 913 00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:28,560 Speaker 1: take credible information and they move it sideways. In other words, 914 00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:30,680 Speaker 1: we have a thing now called the virtual precinct. And 915 00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:32,440 Speaker 1: the old days you have a precinct captain going door 916 00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:34,879 Speaker 1: to door, and you'd know the guy two doors over. 917 00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:36,880 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, he's a veterinarian, and come over, look, I 918 00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:40,000 Speaker 1: know your wife's big into animals. This candidate. Now, the 919 00:47:40,080 --> 00:47:44,000 Speaker 1: virtual precinct is your best friend from college, who's the 920 00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:49,000 Speaker 1: teacher in Columbus, Ohio. Is everybody as much in contact 921 00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:51,880 Speaker 1: with you as your friend two blocks over? So the 922 00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:55,600 Speaker 1: precinct on social media, those swing voters in Columbus may 923 00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:58,400 Speaker 1: not be getting their information from the Columbus regular Republican 924 00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:02,560 Speaker 1: or Democratic organization, but from their friend from high school 925 00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:05,640 Speaker 1: who actually lives in Riverside, California, who made take an 926 00:48:05,719 --> 00:48:09,560 Speaker 1: article that really persuaded her that Hillary is bad, click 927 00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:12,120 Speaker 1: a share, and then the person in Columbus will read 928 00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:14,080 Speaker 1: and trust their friend who sent him the clip, and 929 00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:17,400 Speaker 1: then information will go sideways and have a huge impact 930 00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:20,600 Speaker 1: in a precinct two thousand miles away from the person 931 00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:23,839 Speaker 1: have the social connection with, and it's really changed political organization. 932 00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:27,800 Speaker 1: So that raises an interesting question. In the O eight election, 933 00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:32,160 Speaker 1: it was clear that the Obama campaign had a much 934 00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:40,480 Speaker 1: more technologically sophisticated approach than either Hillary did Um or 935 00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:45,400 Speaker 1: McCain did. He seemed to really have that core group 936 00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:49,719 Speaker 1: of Google geeks that he brought along and became his 937 00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:54,120 Speaker 1: secret weapon. And what I've been hearing and especially in 938 00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:58,719 Speaker 1: the post Mornum after, was that, Hey, the GOP really 939 00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:01,439 Speaker 1: has to capture catch up to the Democrats on this 940 00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:06,640 Speaker 1: um and it doesn't seem to have happened this cycle. 941 00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:10,200 Speaker 1: How important is technology relative to what it used to be? 942 00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:14,440 Speaker 1: And is this lag between the Democrats and the GOP 943 00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:17,960 Speaker 1: as sizeable as it was? And when does the gap close? 944 00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,040 Speaker 1: It is sizeable, and it is a huge problem. But 945 00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:24,560 Speaker 1: one caveat. We always obsess on the gadgets, you know 946 00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:27,560 Speaker 1: in the campaign, Oh, the new mind reading pulling device 947 00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:29,879 Speaker 1: or this or that I ran a guy, a long 948 00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:33,640 Speaker 1: shot guy for president. We announced the campaign on compuser. 949 00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:37,560 Speaker 1: We hold the record for presidential campaign launched down the web. 950 00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:40,279 Speaker 1: But you can overdo the technology. The truth is in 951 00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:43,919 Speaker 1: ninety excuse me, in two thousand eight, when Obama had 952 00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:48,359 Speaker 1: much better analytics and digital than the mccaye campaign, which 953 00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:53,560 Speaker 1: was stone Age, you know, just the Keystone cops. The 954 00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:56,719 Speaker 1: Obama campaign would have won without the Internet because the 955 00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:59,759 Speaker 1: big narrative storytelling of the campaign and the demography the 956 00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:02,600 Speaker 1: most powerful forces were all lined up with Obama. What 957 00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:05,799 Speaker 1: about is the same true? I think the same. Let's 958 00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:10,040 Speaker 1: put this way, it is a huge. Campaigns are amplifiers, 959 00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:14,120 Speaker 1: and all media, be at radio, paid television, direct mail, 960 00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:18,200 Speaker 1: telephone calls, and of course everything digital, particularly mobile devices 961 00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:21,920 Speaker 1: which are eating everything, is a powerful amplifier. And the 962 00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:25,120 Speaker 1: analytics you can get by knowing what people are interested 963 00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:27,200 Speaker 1: in helps you learn so much more about the voters 964 00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:29,040 Speaker 1: and be so much better and even doing the television, 965 00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:32,080 Speaker 1: it's all true. In the Democrats are way ahead, but 966 00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:34,840 Speaker 1: some of that is not by choice. It is driven 967 00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:39,520 Speaker 1: by the audience. The Republican primary, our core tribe is old. 968 00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:43,759 Speaker 1: So guess what the dominant media is AM radio, which, 969 00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:46,000 Speaker 1: with all due respect to Bloomberg Radio, you know, I know, 970 00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:49,360 Speaker 1: you know, ten years from now you'll probably be streaming. 971 00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:51,640 Speaker 1: We're not sure AM radio will be carrying. This is 972 00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:55,400 Speaker 1: streaming already. So not only is this so here's the technology, 973 00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:59,880 Speaker 1: it's uh, definitely the Internet because they're younger. So so 974 00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:03,279 Speaker 1: this broadcast, this will go out on radio, it will 975 00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:06,880 Speaker 1: be streamed on Bloomberg dot com, it will be rebroadcast 976 00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:10,239 Speaker 1: on Sirius x M. It'll show up on iTunes, it'll 977 00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:13,360 Speaker 1: show up on SoundCloud, It'll be in a dozen places. 978 00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:18,040 Speaker 1: But you're saying the core GOP voter is a little 979 00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:21,480 Speaker 1: older there watching Fox News, they're listening to AM radio. 980 00:51:21,600 --> 00:51:25,520 Speaker 1: They're probably reading a physical paper, not not something online. 981 00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:29,480 Speaker 1: So those demographics, how big of an issue is that? 982 00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:33,600 Speaker 1: And when that because our center of gravity, our audiences, 983 00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:37,759 Speaker 1: our core audience that picks our nominee, they tend to 984 00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:42,200 Speaker 1: gravitate towards yesterday's media because of age. So we're really 985 00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:44,720 Speaker 1: good at AM radio, which is probably the least important 986 00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:46,319 Speaker 1: thing to be really good at if you plan the 987 00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:49,200 Speaker 1: next ten years of American politics. It's been listen, Rush Limbon, 988 00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:52,560 Speaker 1: there's a full crow. They've been really really affect right. 989 00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:54,399 Speaker 1: And they're on the web too. I mean they they're 990 00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:56,960 Speaker 1: branching out. But my point is it's kind of an 991 00:51:56,960 --> 00:52:00,880 Speaker 1: illustrative joke. Our activist grab it tate to AM radio, 992 00:52:00,920 --> 00:52:05,319 Speaker 1: their activate Their activists gravitate to the internet. So guess what, 993 00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:08,080 Speaker 1: they're much better at the internet organically. But we we 994 00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:11,200 Speaker 1: look we our problem is not technology. After that report 995 00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:13,319 Speaker 1: came out, which I agreed with, I would have loved 996 00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:15,360 Speaker 1: to have been a big iron salesman sound computers to 997 00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:17,480 Speaker 1: the R and C because everybody wants to buy the gadget. 998 00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:20,840 Speaker 1: Our problems are more fundamental than the gadget. Our problems 999 00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:24,440 Speaker 1: are modernizing conservatism to appeal to the demography of the 1000 00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:26,760 Speaker 1: modern America so we can actually win a presidential election. 1001 00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:28,960 Speaker 1: We have lost. You know, we're the market party. We 1002 00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:32,200 Speaker 1: believe the market smart. We've lost the voter market in 1003 00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:35,279 Speaker 1: five of the last six presidential elections. That's twenty years 1004 00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:38,320 Speaker 1: of our product being rejected by the consumers of a 1005 00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:41,400 Speaker 1: presidential election. The only group I know with a longer 1006 00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:43,720 Speaker 1: than twenty year losing streak like that this is true 1007 00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:46,400 Speaker 1: is the Washington generals who are paid to lose to 1008 00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:49,560 Speaker 1: the problem globe drivers. They're losing streak is twenty four 1009 00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:51,879 Speaker 1: years long. So when Trump blows it, we can turn 1010 00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:54,920 Speaker 1: pro where be able to join the Washington generals. So 1011 00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:57,960 Speaker 1: we've been speaking to Michael Murphy of the Rights Arise 1012 00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:01,879 Speaker 1: pack and political consultant to Jeff Bush, John McCain, Arnold 1013 00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:05,799 Speaker 1: Schwarzenegger and other and host of Radio Free g OP 1014 00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:09,239 Speaker 1: which you can find that iTunes and everywhere else you 1015 00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:14,080 Speaker 1: find podcasts have been have been found. If you enjoy 1016 00:53:14,160 --> 00:53:16,719 Speaker 1: this conversation, be sure and stick around for a podcast 1017 00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:20,480 Speaker 1: extras where we keep the tape rolling and continue chatting 1018 00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:24,600 Speaker 1: all things political. You can read my daily column on 1019 00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:28,759 Speaker 1: Bloomberg View dot com or follow me on Twitter at Riholts. 1020 00:53:29,280 --> 00:53:32,520 Speaker 1: I'm Barry Rihults. You've been listening to Masters in Business 1021 00:53:32,520 --> 00:53:36,600 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Welcome to the podcast, Mike Murphy, Thank 1022 00:53:36,640 --> 00:53:38,840 Speaker 1: you so much for doing this. I have to share 1023 00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:42,760 Speaker 1: a hilarious story with you about how this interview came about. 1024 00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:47,319 Speaker 1: So I have a booker, Taylor. She does a fabulous job. 1025 00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:52,080 Speaker 1: Um and we're always you know, there's always three dozen 1026 00:53:52,160 --> 00:53:55,359 Speaker 1: people in the process of either of them reaching out 1027 00:53:55,400 --> 00:53:57,400 Speaker 1: to us or us reaching out to them. I'm not 1028 00:53:57,440 --> 00:53:59,960 Speaker 1: going to be in New York until November whatever it is, 1029 00:54:00,000 --> 00:54:05,719 Speaker 1: and it's a process. Your namesake, Michael Murphy was on 1030 00:54:05,760 --> 00:54:10,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg TV the same day you were on either UM 1031 00:54:10,840 --> 00:54:14,239 Speaker 1: by Al due respect or one of the shows. So 1032 00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:18,120 Speaker 1: I send an email to Taylor saying, oh, Mike Murphy 1033 00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:19,840 Speaker 1: was really good. You should we should get him on. 1034 00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:22,040 Speaker 1: She goes, Okay, not a problem. He's back in New 1035 00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:26,319 Speaker 1: York and September fantastic. So I go about my day 1036 00:54:26,320 --> 00:54:29,440 Speaker 1: and I don't think about it. We prep for these 1037 00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:32,640 Speaker 1: about a week in advance. I start doing research and 1038 00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:34,799 Speaker 1: I asked somebody, I don't know if it was you 1039 00:54:35,000 --> 00:54:38,799 Speaker 1: or or the the press person, Hey, send me buy 1040 00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:43,279 Speaker 1: a Well, we'll start our research. And back comes Mike Murphy, 1041 00:54:43,520 --> 00:54:45,799 Speaker 1: right to rise, etcetera, etcetera. But you thought it was 1042 00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:49,120 Speaker 1: a Silicon Valley guy right four months ago? I thought 1043 00:54:49,120 --> 00:54:52,080 Speaker 1: it was the tech guy. So I tell Taylor this 1044 00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:53,319 Speaker 1: and she goes, what do you want to do? I go, 1045 00:54:54,080 --> 00:54:57,239 Speaker 1: this is fantastic. The elections a month and a half away. 1046 00:54:57,280 --> 00:55:00,160 Speaker 1: I have a million questions for Mike Murphy. Yes, why 1047 00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:02,560 Speaker 1: all means? So this was a for tour right now, 1048 00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:05,800 Speaker 1: the tech guys, I meet the press, right. I wonder 1049 00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:08,000 Speaker 1: how often that happens? So thank you so much for 1050 00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:11,279 Speaker 1: doing this. I'm very excited. Um, And most of my 1051 00:55:11,320 --> 00:55:13,839 Speaker 1: work is working for business by the way, you know, yeah, 1052 00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:16,800 Speaker 1: I don't really do campaigns anymore. I do corporate problem 1053 00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:21,920 Speaker 1: solving and so is it crisis consulting or specific crisis 1054 00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:24,920 Speaker 1: And also you know, messaging with politics teaches you how 1055 00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:27,880 Speaker 1: to bunch a message through and a product on a 1056 00:55:27,960 --> 00:55:32,000 Speaker 1: specific both services I do work for HP Enterprise. I've 1057 00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:34,000 Speaker 1: done work in the past with Facebook and you know, 1058 00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:38,680 Speaker 1: a whole bunch of HP um So Carli Fiorina, what 1059 00:55:38,680 --> 00:55:43,080 Speaker 1: what was that about? Well, she's you know, great presentation, ambitious, 1060 00:55:43,120 --> 00:55:44,960 Speaker 1: and she's now looking at running for chair of the 1061 00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:48,600 Speaker 1: Republican National Committee. Really think she has a shot. I 1062 00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:50,919 Speaker 1: think she'll lose. Of Ryan's previous runs for re election, 1063 00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:53,640 Speaker 1: He's got a pretty good grip on it. But maybe. Yeah, 1064 00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:55,640 Speaker 1: she's got a lot of fans in the party. What 1065 00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:58,560 Speaker 1: what happened to her campaign? Well, I think she never 1066 00:55:58,560 --> 00:56:00,480 Speaker 1: really had the base to run for presis it's hard 1067 00:56:00,480 --> 00:56:03,200 Speaker 1: to run for president when you're bad stories you you've 1068 00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:05,680 Speaker 1: got Claubert in you know, really a very hard state 1069 00:56:05,719 --> 00:56:08,880 Speaker 1: to win. She ran courageously in California, like Meg Women 1070 00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:12,440 Speaker 1: did and not Meg Whitman has a great reputation from 1071 00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:16,360 Speaker 1: from eBay and uh, I forgot the products company she 1072 00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:18,960 Speaker 1: was at before, was at Colgate palum Olive or something like. 1073 00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:22,040 Speaker 1: I think she was at PG and P and But 1074 00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:26,719 Speaker 1: so she's got Meg Woman has wonderful corporate resume. The 1075 00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:29,960 Speaker 1: compact HP merger people aren't as excited about, and I 1076 00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:34,360 Speaker 1: think Carly has less of a of the business cred. 1077 00:56:35,400 --> 00:56:38,799 Speaker 1: California business community did not really fall behind Carly the 1078 00:56:38,840 --> 00:56:41,880 Speaker 1: way they did behind Meg when they both ran. But 1079 00:56:42,040 --> 00:56:43,960 Speaker 1: I give them both credit for running in an incredibly 1080 00:56:43,960 --> 00:56:47,040 Speaker 1: hard state to win as a Republican. And now if 1081 00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:50,120 Speaker 1: you're not Arnold, double yeah. But Arnold was like a hybrid. 1082 00:56:50,160 --> 00:56:52,359 Speaker 1: He could you know, he had that big identity so 1083 00:56:52,360 --> 00:56:54,319 Speaker 1: you can kind of bring everybody together. And it was 1084 00:56:54,400 --> 00:56:58,600 Speaker 1: a recall ellection, no Republican primery, so unlike both that 1085 00:56:59,400 --> 00:57:02,880 Speaker 1: Megan Meggie had an anti immigration guy running in the primary, 1086 00:57:02,880 --> 00:57:05,000 Speaker 1: which really hurt her in the general election. That's a 1087 00:57:05,120 --> 00:57:08,440 Speaker 1: that's an issue in California much more so than New York. 1088 00:57:08,880 --> 00:57:13,239 Speaker 1: I'm surprised homelessness isn't as big an issue in California 1089 00:57:13,360 --> 00:57:16,760 Speaker 1: as a New Yorker going to California. You go to 1090 00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:20,240 Speaker 1: l A, San Francisco, or straight up the coast, Portland, Seattle. 1091 00:57:21,200 --> 00:57:23,800 Speaker 1: As a New Yorker, I'm shocked at the amount of 1092 00:57:23,800 --> 00:57:28,120 Speaker 1: homelessness San Diego. It's shocking. It's it's an issue that 1093 00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:30,960 Speaker 1: comes up on polling, but California politicians don't talk about it. 1094 00:57:31,480 --> 00:57:33,760 Speaker 1: Is that well. I think we're one party state and 1095 00:57:33,760 --> 00:57:36,240 Speaker 1: nobody wants to kind of get into the identity politics 1096 00:57:36,360 --> 00:57:39,000 Speaker 1: arguments with the interest groups that say more money to 1097 00:57:39,040 --> 00:57:41,640 Speaker 1: the homeless versus kind of the groups that are more 1098 00:57:41,640 --> 00:57:44,400 Speaker 1: of a tough love approach and so they don't see 1099 00:57:44,400 --> 00:57:46,160 Speaker 1: a political win and jumping in the middle of that. 1100 00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:49,160 Speaker 1: Utah did an analysis and they said we could take 1101 00:57:49,200 --> 00:57:51,400 Speaker 1: these people, put them in public housing so they get 1102 00:57:51,400 --> 00:57:53,720 Speaker 1: their meds, so they It's interesting. I was in Utah 1103 00:57:53,760 --> 00:57:55,480 Speaker 1: two days ago and a couple of mayors straightened me 1104 00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:57,360 Speaker 1: out about that because I asked him about it. So 1105 00:57:57,600 --> 00:58:01,720 Speaker 1: and the media got it wrong. We did a thing 1106 00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:04,680 Speaker 1: for veterans. We could take care of the veterans that way, 1107 00:58:04,720 --> 00:58:08,320 Speaker 1: but the whole community now homeless are coming to Utah 1108 00:58:08,360 --> 00:58:11,840 Speaker 1: from around the country believing that there's a part. Yeah, 1109 00:58:11,840 --> 00:58:14,400 Speaker 1: so this was for homeless vets, not for the general. 1110 00:58:14,400 --> 00:58:16,520 Speaker 1: That was the initiative and I had and it's been 1111 00:58:16,600 --> 00:58:19,160 Speaker 1: very successful. The city councilman from Salt Lake kind of 1112 00:58:19,240 --> 00:58:21,440 Speaker 1: explained to me and said, my theory is were we 1113 00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:24,120 Speaker 1: have a growing homeless problem because we became famous as 1114 00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:25,800 Speaker 1: the place where it come to you, there's an apartment 1115 00:58:25,800 --> 00:58:27,400 Speaker 1: for you, and that's not quite accurate. Well, sure, the 1116 00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:30,200 Speaker 1: homeless get online. They read this on the internet. Are 1117 00:58:30,240 --> 00:58:33,919 Speaker 1: people really traveling across country to go to Utah? I'm 1118 00:58:33,960 --> 00:58:35,920 Speaker 1: not the fact checker on it, but I had a 1119 00:58:36,000 --> 00:58:39,920 Speaker 1: credible Utah's municipal official tell me he thought that that 1120 00:58:39,960 --> 00:58:42,360 Speaker 1: story had attracted more homeless but but the fact that 1121 00:58:42,400 --> 00:58:45,760 Speaker 1: it was homeless vets that that's what that was the program. Yeah, okay, 1122 00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:48,040 Speaker 1: thought that was a distinction that should be made. That 1123 00:58:48,120 --> 00:58:51,440 Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense. So so let's let's talk 1124 00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:54,560 Speaker 1: a little bit about about the general election and things 1125 00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:57,760 Speaker 1: people don't understand. If if you were to share with 1126 00:58:57,840 --> 00:59:01,200 Speaker 1: the public, here's something you but you don't understand about 1127 00:59:01,240 --> 00:59:06,919 Speaker 1: the entire campaign process, what would that be? I would say, One, 1128 00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:11,600 Speaker 1: it is a human endeavor, So all the eccentricities and 1129 00:59:12,440 --> 00:59:16,840 Speaker 1: wonderful things that make humans unpredictable are proud of the campaign. 1130 00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:20,000 Speaker 1: It's less of a machine than people think, and eccentrics 1131 00:59:20,040 --> 00:59:24,600 Speaker 1: have a role in it. Second, people way overestimate the 1132 00:59:24,640 --> 00:59:28,080 Speaker 1: importance of daily polling data. I often joked that if 1133 00:59:28,120 --> 00:59:30,280 Speaker 1: I woke up one day and they said, hey, welcome 1134 00:59:30,320 --> 00:59:32,080 Speaker 1: to China. You have a new job. You're head of 1135 00:59:32,120 --> 00:59:35,120 Speaker 1: the Chinese spy agency, I would say Okay, I guess 1136 00:59:35,160 --> 00:59:37,439 Speaker 1: I gotta do this. Give me the budget, and I'd 1137 00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:40,200 Speaker 1: immediately take about twenty million dollars and I would start 1138 00:59:40,280 --> 00:59:45,360 Speaker 1: buying off polsters in the US because the pundits you 1139 00:59:45,400 --> 00:59:48,400 Speaker 1: see on television, the experts quote unquote, who notice have 1140 00:59:48,480 --> 00:59:50,320 Speaker 1: to be an expert about everything, so often they're an 1141 00:59:50,320 --> 00:59:53,800 Speaker 1: expert about nothing. They look at the average of all 1142 00:59:53,840 --> 00:59:56,120 Speaker 1: the polls every morning, and then the engineer opinions to 1143 00:59:56,160 --> 00:59:58,840 Speaker 1: fit that, and so we're in this kind of silly 1144 00:59:58,880 --> 01:00:00,800 Speaker 1: feedback loop. The truth is it's a lot more like 1145 01:00:00,880 --> 01:00:04,000 Speaker 1: value investing. You want to identify the balance sheet of 1146 01:00:04,000 --> 01:00:06,880 Speaker 1: each campaign, the real assets that are there, get through 1147 01:00:06,920 --> 01:00:10,240 Speaker 1: the accounting blur, and not worry about the daily visitudes 1148 01:00:10,280 --> 01:00:11,560 Speaker 1: of polling, which you have a lot to do with 1149 01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:13,959 Speaker 1: what was on the news two days ago, and see 1150 01:00:14,320 --> 01:00:18,520 Speaker 1: who's getting what assets from the electorate, who's doing well 1151 01:00:18,560 --> 01:00:20,600 Speaker 1: with women and women are gonna like and land with 1152 01:00:20,840 --> 01:00:23,680 Speaker 1: who are college educated versus high school educated men going 1153 01:00:23,720 --> 01:00:26,880 Speaker 1: for where are minorities going? And then you can pretty 1154 01:00:26,880 --> 01:00:29,280 Speaker 1: well know the reversion the mean that will happen on 1155 01:00:29,320 --> 01:00:32,360 Speaker 1: election day. That's so funny, say that literally my column 1156 01:00:32,360 --> 01:00:37,760 Speaker 1: that that September six, is about we over emphasize the 1157 01:00:37,760 --> 01:00:41,720 Speaker 1: most recent data and ignore the long term trends. These 1158 01:00:41,840 --> 01:00:44,960 Speaker 1: daily things are so noisy, they're so subject to revision. 1159 01:00:45,480 --> 01:00:50,280 Speaker 1: You were mentioning you could have a hundred polls at 1160 01:00:50,320 --> 01:00:52,800 Speaker 1: forty one, but the one poll that comes out and 1161 01:00:52,840 --> 01:00:56,760 Speaker 1: says forty six, and when it's against the overwhelming way 1162 01:00:56,760 --> 01:00:59,360 Speaker 1: of the evidence, the assumption is, Hey, that's the poll 1163 01:00:59,400 --> 01:01:02,160 Speaker 1: that has something wrong with it. That's the one everybody 1164 01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:04,040 Speaker 1: runs with. It's the one that makes the news. I 1165 01:01:04,040 --> 01:01:06,520 Speaker 1: have a friend who was an old retired journalist who says, 1166 01:01:06,880 --> 01:01:10,880 Speaker 1: if a Martian landed and watched only television, they would 1167 01:01:10,880 --> 01:01:13,440 Speaker 1: think that Gerbils can water ski because the only time 1168 01:01:13,480 --> 01:01:15,560 Speaker 1: you've seen a Gerbil on TV, it's on water ski. 1169 01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:19,040 Speaker 1: So therefore Gerbils must the outlier gets the attention. Yes, 1170 01:01:19,240 --> 01:01:23,080 Speaker 1: and that and that creates the very much um. I'll 1171 01:01:23,080 --> 01:01:26,480 Speaker 1: defend a little bit. They are right when they overreacted. 1172 01:01:26,480 --> 01:01:28,840 Speaker 1: These polls at the racist tightened a little bit. But 1173 01:01:28,960 --> 01:01:31,320 Speaker 1: they assume that it's kind of like the psychology of 1174 01:01:31,360 --> 01:01:34,200 Speaker 1: the stock market. People assume the current direction will always continue, 1175 01:01:34,520 --> 01:01:37,280 Speaker 1: It'll keep going up or it'll keep going down. So 1176 01:01:37,840 --> 01:01:41,440 Speaker 1: trees don't grow to the sky. You can't exactly. And 1177 01:01:41,480 --> 01:01:43,440 Speaker 1: so when I look at the election, they've seen the 1178 01:01:43,440 --> 01:01:46,120 Speaker 1: new Zarcher pole. Here's everything I know. Polls are hard 1179 01:01:46,160 --> 01:01:49,000 Speaker 1: to take because people don't answer their phone anymore. For 1180 01:01:49,040 --> 01:01:51,440 Speaker 1: sure that the methodology is harder, which means to do 1181 01:01:51,480 --> 01:01:53,800 Speaker 1: it right is more expensive and takes more time in 1182 01:01:53,840 --> 01:01:57,720 Speaker 1: the field. The average media publisher doesn't always say, when 1183 01:01:57,720 --> 01:01:59,640 Speaker 1: I'm buying a pole, can I get the most expensive, 1184 01:01:59,640 --> 01:02:01,800 Speaker 1: really good one that takes a week to do. They're like, 1185 01:02:01,840 --> 01:02:04,000 Speaker 1: I need an instant pulled them out to have candy, 1186 01:02:04,040 --> 01:02:06,280 Speaker 1: have something to talk about on the morning news flash. 1187 01:02:06,880 --> 01:02:10,400 Speaker 1: So you know, the pressure to provide cheap, junkie polling, 1188 01:02:10,480 --> 01:02:13,480 Speaker 1: to consume, to feed the trivial discussion every day with 1189 01:02:13,520 --> 01:02:15,520 Speaker 1: the sirens going off, we have a new action poll 1190 01:02:15,680 --> 01:02:17,720 Speaker 1: and now it's a closer horse race because you were 1191 01:02:17,800 --> 01:02:20,960 Speaker 1: using medioc pulse. Well, not always me to. I don't 1192 01:02:20,960 --> 01:02:22,680 Speaker 1: want to have too broad of a brush, but let 1193 01:02:22,720 --> 01:02:25,120 Speaker 1: me put it this way. The election is more complicated 1194 01:02:25,120 --> 01:02:27,680 Speaker 1: than daily polls, and the big trends that you want 1195 01:02:27,680 --> 01:02:30,560 Speaker 1: to figure out don't always reveal themselves in the poll. 1196 01:02:30,680 --> 01:02:34,320 Speaker 1: And finally, everybody covers the horse race of the two numbers. 1197 01:02:34,360 --> 01:02:37,160 Speaker 1: One guy's at forty five, ones at forty four. It's 1198 01:02:37,160 --> 01:02:40,600 Speaker 1: at one point race. I'm saying, well, who's not yet 1199 01:02:40,640 --> 01:02:42,680 Speaker 1: at forty nine? And what does the next five points 1200 01:02:42,680 --> 01:02:45,000 Speaker 1: look like to get there? Because the people are undecided 1201 01:02:45,040 --> 01:02:47,400 Speaker 1: are not going to leave the planet. Almost all of 1202 01:02:47,440 --> 01:02:49,280 Speaker 1: them will vote if the poll is correctly done and 1203 01:02:49,360 --> 01:02:52,320 Speaker 1: registered voters, and they're gonna land on somebody. So even 1204 01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:55,360 Speaker 1: though it might be a two point race now at four, 1205 01:02:56,080 --> 01:02:59,160 Speaker 1: there's another, you know, easy ten percent of the vote 1206 01:02:59,160 --> 01:03:01,320 Speaker 1: that's going to show up and be for somebody. And 1207 01:03:01,360 --> 01:03:04,520 Speaker 1: that's a much better understanding those voters and where they're 1208 01:03:04,520 --> 01:03:06,760 Speaker 1: gonna land or likely to land tells you a lot 1209 01:03:06,760 --> 01:03:11,560 Speaker 1: more than three. Are there really undecided voters at this 1210 01:03:11,600 --> 01:03:16,760 Speaker 1: point in this election? So let me push back on this. 1211 01:03:16,760 --> 01:03:20,280 Speaker 1: This show and it has been a reality show. This 1212 01:03:20,360 --> 01:03:23,160 Speaker 1: has been going on for well over a year. The 1213 01:03:23,200 --> 01:03:25,800 Speaker 1: Brits have an election, it's six weeks and they're done. 1214 01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:29,240 Speaker 1: And I think the Canadians of thirty days, this is 1215 01:03:29,280 --> 01:03:32,120 Speaker 1: a year of this. Is there anyone out there who 1216 01:03:32,200 --> 01:03:35,720 Speaker 1: really doesn't have a firm opinion on I like Hillary, 1217 01:03:35,800 --> 01:03:38,479 Speaker 1: I don't like Hillary. I like Donald Trump, I don't 1218 01:03:38,480 --> 01:03:41,880 Speaker 1: like Donald Trump. I mean, at this point, what is 1219 01:03:41,920 --> 01:03:44,840 Speaker 1: the big reveal that's gonna affect them or are they 1220 01:03:44,960 --> 01:03:49,000 Speaker 1: just being a little coy there being a low COI um, 1221 01:03:49,000 --> 01:03:51,760 Speaker 1: because we in the old days, you know, like the 1222 01:03:51,800 --> 01:03:55,919 Speaker 1: gallop pole Harris, when the polling phone call came, you'd 1223 01:03:55,920 --> 01:03:57,920 Speaker 1: stand up. It was like the president calling. It's you know, 1224 01:03:58,120 --> 01:04:01,439 Speaker 1: it's a big deal. Now we have a pull every 1225 01:04:01,480 --> 01:04:04,760 Speaker 1: two seconds. So there's some political science thinking that says 1226 01:04:04,760 --> 01:04:07,120 Speaker 1: people use polls to kind of slap the system around 1227 01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:09,680 Speaker 1: a little bit, because everybody knows they get to change 1228 01:04:09,680 --> 01:04:13,160 Speaker 1: their minds. So when if you were to like the electorate, 1229 01:04:13,360 --> 01:04:16,240 Speaker 1: people who say there for Hillary might for a week 1230 01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:19,560 Speaker 1: say I'm thinking about Trump. I'm back to Hillary. It's 1231 01:04:19,600 --> 01:04:21,120 Speaker 1: kind of like we asked somebody what kind of car 1232 01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:23,160 Speaker 1: they're gonna buy. Well, I'm thinking this is the year 1233 01:04:23,160 --> 01:04:25,000 Speaker 1: for the Mercedes. You know, if you ask them six 1234 01:04:25,040 --> 01:04:28,040 Speaker 1: months before their leases up, and they're gonna float around 1235 01:04:28,040 --> 01:04:30,920 Speaker 1: a couple of car brands. Half of them will stay 1236 01:04:31,120 --> 01:04:33,560 Speaker 1: like base voters, They're not going anywhere. I'm a Chevy guy, 1237 01:04:33,560 --> 01:04:36,000 Speaker 1: always better. But others will float based on what they're 1238 01:04:36,000 --> 01:04:38,120 Speaker 1: seeing out there. But if you pull the same people 1239 01:04:38,160 --> 01:04:40,680 Speaker 1: three days before they buying the car. They're down to 1240 01:04:40,760 --> 01:04:43,880 Speaker 1: a price offer and the Mercedes is now off the 1241 01:04:43,960 --> 01:04:45,880 Speaker 1: list because they found out that always gonna be three 1242 01:04:46,480 --> 01:04:49,120 Speaker 1: more month than I thought. And they're heading for that 1243 01:04:49,160 --> 01:04:52,360 Speaker 1: Ford fusion or whatever. So you know, just because they 1244 01:04:52,400 --> 01:04:55,600 Speaker 1: say it on September seventeen doesn't mean it's what's going 1245 01:04:55,640 --> 01:04:57,840 Speaker 1: to happen in the election. It tells you what would 1246 01:04:57,840 --> 01:05:01,640 Speaker 1: happen at the election were held yesterday. So so we've 1247 01:05:01,680 --> 01:05:07,480 Speaker 1: seen poles in the past that um famously Carter was ahead, 1248 01:05:07,800 --> 01:05:10,919 Speaker 1: was it nine months? Eight months before the election, and 1249 01:05:11,800 --> 01:05:15,000 Speaker 1: going into the primaries early on it looked like Obama 1250 01:05:15,040 --> 01:05:18,720 Speaker 1: had no chance. In two thousand and eight, when do 1251 01:05:18,840 --> 01:05:22,040 Speaker 1: the poles really begin to firm up. It's mid September. 1252 01:05:22,600 --> 01:05:25,920 Speaker 1: We have what seven weeks left. I don't know any 1253 01:05:25,960 --> 01:05:29,800 Speaker 1: serious practitioner, which means people who spent twenty or thirty 1254 01:05:29,880 --> 01:05:33,919 Speaker 1: years running races, living in crap hotels and campaign headquarters 1255 01:05:34,240 --> 01:05:38,120 Speaker 1: for senators, governors, congressman and occasionally presidents who pays too 1256 01:05:38,200 --> 01:05:41,640 Speaker 1: much attention to the horse race ballot until after the 1257 01:05:41,720 --> 01:05:44,400 Speaker 1: first debate. And that means which is the end of 1258 01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:48,400 Speaker 1: this month, yea, so early October and until then, it's 1259 01:05:48,440 --> 01:05:51,560 Speaker 1: like me handing you an apple, some sugar and some butter, 1260 01:05:51,920 --> 01:05:53,280 Speaker 1: some flour, and say, what do you think of my 1261 01:05:53,320 --> 01:05:56,400 Speaker 1: apple pie? You know, not ready yet. You have to 1262 01:05:56,440 --> 01:05:59,080 Speaker 1: cook the thing. And so do we follow polling? Now? 1263 01:05:59,120 --> 01:06:00,600 Speaker 1: Of course we do, but you don't really look at 1264 01:06:00,600 --> 01:06:02,200 Speaker 1: the horse race. You look at the internal numbers. What 1265 01:06:02,240 --> 01:06:04,480 Speaker 1: do they think of Trump? What do they think of Hillary? 1266 01:06:04,520 --> 01:06:07,120 Speaker 1: What do they not know about Trumpery Hillary? That you 1267 01:06:07,160 --> 01:06:10,080 Speaker 1: know as a consultant is true because the main thing 1268 01:06:10,120 --> 01:06:13,000 Speaker 1: we do in a campaign has introduced new information and 1269 01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:17,000 Speaker 1: that is a powerful thing. So that's a really interesting 1270 01:06:17,040 --> 01:06:20,160 Speaker 1: set of questions. And let's let's unpack that a little bit. First, 1271 01:06:21,080 --> 01:06:26,440 Speaker 1: in a stage with twelve people. Trump was a tremendous debate. 1272 01:06:26,480 --> 01:06:29,320 Speaker 1: Presents that worked out really well. Pre word title, and 1273 01:06:29,600 --> 01:06:32,320 Speaker 1: remember the electorate and relican primary is only maybe twenty 1274 01:06:32,440 --> 01:06:36,080 Speaker 1: nine million people, which is one hundred million fewer than 1275 01:06:36,080 --> 01:06:39,040 Speaker 1: the general election electorates. So one of the things is 1276 01:06:39,040 --> 01:06:41,640 Speaker 1: happening now is people are saying, well, nobody thought Trump 1277 01:06:41,720 --> 01:06:43,560 Speaker 1: could win the primary, and he won the primary. So 1278 01:06:43,640 --> 01:06:46,280 Speaker 1: what streets caused rain? Which means Trump can win the general? 1279 01:06:46,760 --> 01:06:50,800 Speaker 1: They're two totally different electorates. You know, it's so heading 1280 01:06:50,840 --> 01:06:56,160 Speaker 1: into the general debates for the general election. Um, what 1281 01:06:56,160 --> 01:07:00,080 Speaker 1: what you read on how he's gonna behave and how 1282 01:07:00,120 --> 01:07:03,600 Speaker 1: he's gonna do in a one on one debate versus 1283 01:07:03,640 --> 01:07:07,080 Speaker 1: what he did in the in the debate. You know, 1284 01:07:07,160 --> 01:07:12,280 Speaker 1: it is impossible to protict Trump. It's just you know, 1285 01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:15,320 Speaker 1: the only thing I'll say is, you know Trump will 1286 01:07:15,360 --> 01:07:19,720 Speaker 1: be Trump, which means he'll crean around, he'll vamp everything. 1287 01:07:20,320 --> 01:07:22,840 Speaker 1: He'll one minute he'll try to be thoughtful and quiet, 1288 01:07:22,840 --> 01:07:25,360 Speaker 1: the next minute he'll be talking about Vince Foster. What 1289 01:07:25,560 --> 01:07:27,440 Speaker 1: the mixes of that? You don't know? I mean, the 1290 01:07:27,520 --> 01:07:30,840 Speaker 1: joke I tell about Trump is the Trump advisors are 1291 01:07:30,880 --> 01:07:34,640 Speaker 1: kind of like Charlie Manson's Fox Trot instructors Charlie Today's 1292 01:07:34,640 --> 01:07:39,440 Speaker 1: foxtrot lesson great step step tap step steps. He does 1293 01:07:39,480 --> 01:07:41,040 Speaker 1: it and he doesn't have any thinking, Wow, he's making 1294 01:07:41,080 --> 01:07:43,360 Speaker 1: real progress. Then he stabs you in the ip A pencil. 1295 01:07:43,920 --> 01:07:47,440 Speaker 1: So you can't predict Trump other than he will be unpredictable. 1296 01:07:47,480 --> 01:07:50,800 Speaker 1: That's the prediction. And we will see versions of what 1297 01:07:50,840 --> 01:07:54,000 Speaker 1: we've seen before because people don't change. So whether it's 1298 01:07:54,040 --> 01:07:56,480 Speaker 1: a mix of the more subdued Trump they occasionally get 1299 01:07:56,520 --> 01:07:58,560 Speaker 1: because they've got the thorizin out or whatever they do, 1300 01:07:59,200 --> 01:08:02,680 Speaker 1: or it's Trump totally unhinged or both during a debate, 1301 01:08:02,720 --> 01:08:06,000 Speaker 1: when when kind of crazy Trump breaks out of the 1302 01:08:06,040 --> 01:08:08,800 Speaker 1: thorazine Trump after thirty minutes, when you know you can't 1303 01:08:08,800 --> 01:08:11,920 Speaker 1: put another pill in? Who knows? Now, Hillary? We do 1304 01:08:12,000 --> 01:08:15,120 Speaker 1: know because her personality is so transparent, she'll try to 1305 01:08:15,160 --> 01:08:17,559 Speaker 1: win the spelling be calling me, call on me. I 1306 01:08:17,600 --> 01:08:19,760 Speaker 1: wrote a paper on that. She's a policy wonk, and 1307 01:08:19,760 --> 01:08:22,280 Speaker 1: and she'll be wonky in the debates. So the real 1308 01:08:22,360 --> 01:08:25,120 Speaker 1: question will be when Trump kind of tries to bully 1309 01:08:25,160 --> 01:08:27,880 Speaker 1: and muscle in on her, how she handles that without 1310 01:08:27,920 --> 01:08:30,559 Speaker 1: doing a bad Trump imitation, which would not help her. 1311 01:08:30,680 --> 01:08:33,559 Speaker 1: But she can't be too passive either. So it's a 1312 01:08:33,560 --> 01:08:37,320 Speaker 1: tougher debate for her because she got she's got to 1313 01:08:37,439 --> 01:08:41,120 Speaker 1: navigate the crazy will still showing strength because he has 1314 01:08:41,120 --> 01:08:45,040 Speaker 1: got to be strong and likable and experienced. And I 1315 01:08:45,040 --> 01:08:46,760 Speaker 1: don't love her, but I could live with her. That 1316 01:08:47,040 --> 01:08:49,559 Speaker 1: is that what she's going for. I would say from 1317 01:08:49,560 --> 01:08:52,559 Speaker 1: her point of view, I would be thinking about how 1318 01:08:52,560 --> 01:08:54,640 Speaker 1: do I move the needle on the number one? The 1319 01:08:54,720 --> 01:08:57,839 Speaker 1: kind of thorn in the voters toe about me Hillary, 1320 01:08:58,120 --> 01:09:00,120 Speaker 1: which is nobody trust me because they think I'm an 1321 01:09:00,200 --> 01:09:04,120 Speaker 1: ultimate political calculating machine. So how can I break through 1322 01:09:04,120 --> 01:09:05,800 Speaker 1: all the political crack and get people who think I'm 1323 01:09:05,840 --> 01:09:08,439 Speaker 1: a real person. I have stuff I believe in, which 1324 01:09:08,479 --> 01:09:10,160 Speaker 1: is why I'm in this, and here's what I'll do 1325 01:09:10,240 --> 01:09:13,679 Speaker 1: for you. How does she get that connection done? And 1326 01:09:13,720 --> 01:09:16,160 Speaker 1: how does she appear strong enough that Trump sitting his 1327 01:09:16,160 --> 01:09:20,000 Speaker 1: hair on fire, you know, six ft away um does 1328 01:09:20,080 --> 01:09:22,360 Speaker 1: not affect her in a way where people say, you 1329 01:09:22,400 --> 01:09:26,720 Speaker 1: know what, She's just not strong enough. Trump, meanwhile, if 1330 01:09:26,720 --> 01:09:29,800 Speaker 1: he's smart, has to note to win the election. He's 1331 01:09:29,800 --> 01:09:32,599 Speaker 1: got to take one of two groups and dramatically change 1332 01:09:32,600 --> 01:09:34,240 Speaker 1: what they think about him, which is the hardest thing 1333 01:09:34,280 --> 01:09:36,080 Speaker 1: to do in politics. Get people to totally change what 1334 01:09:36,120 --> 01:09:38,200 Speaker 1: they think. Is there to gonna get minority voters to 1335 01:09:38,320 --> 01:09:40,920 Speaker 1: change what they think? Or he's got to get college 1336 01:09:41,000 --> 01:09:43,840 Speaker 1: educated white women to go from not liking him to 1337 01:09:43,960 --> 01:09:48,320 Speaker 1: loving him. And it is a lift I've never seen 1338 01:09:48,320 --> 01:09:51,360 Speaker 1: anybody else do. And Trump is not the kind of 1339 01:09:51,400 --> 01:09:54,400 Speaker 1: guy who does discipline lifts. He just shows up and 1340 01:09:54,720 --> 01:09:57,720 Speaker 1: he still thinks it's the Republican primary. And so I 1341 01:09:57,760 --> 01:10:00,759 Speaker 1: think he'll do his act and he'll hurt her a little. 1342 01:10:01,360 --> 01:10:03,000 Speaker 1: And because I don't know how good she'll be, I'm 1343 01:10:03,040 --> 01:10:06,240 Speaker 1: very worried she'll be overprepared and all that from again, 1344 01:10:06,439 --> 01:10:09,000 Speaker 1: very worried. I'm not voting for I'm not a Hillary 1345 01:10:09,080 --> 01:10:11,599 Speaker 1: Clinton fan, but are you kind of in the never 1346 01:10:11,640 --> 01:10:14,599 Speaker 1: Trump came, I never vote for Trump. If it came 1347 01:10:14,600 --> 01:10:19,080 Speaker 1: down to just my vote, I would probably jump in 1348 01:10:19,120 --> 01:10:22,160 Speaker 1: the lake. But I'd leave with my suicide note, a 1349 01:10:22,160 --> 01:10:24,680 Speaker 1: absentee ballot for Hillary Clinton, because if I had to 1350 01:10:24,720 --> 01:10:28,320 Speaker 1: pick her, mediocrity is so much better than Trump's anality. 1351 01:10:28,400 --> 01:10:34,720 Speaker 1: I mean, within the range of acceptable politicians. She may 1352 01:10:34,760 --> 01:10:36,720 Speaker 1: not be your cup of tea, but you know that 1353 01:10:36,760 --> 01:10:39,360 Speaker 1: she's a serious candidate. She won't try to get out 1354 01:10:39,400 --> 01:10:42,519 Speaker 1: of NATO. She'll she be ten better than Obama on 1355 01:10:42,560 --> 01:10:46,880 Speaker 1: foreign policy. Now, and that's on the economy. What's your 1356 01:10:46,960 --> 01:10:49,400 Speaker 1: view of her on the economy? How far has Bernie 1357 01:10:49,479 --> 01:10:52,519 Speaker 1: dragged her to the left dangerously far? The the the 1358 01:10:53,160 --> 01:10:57,439 Speaker 1: hijack team of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are a threat, 1359 01:10:57,479 --> 01:11:00,280 Speaker 1: and they're a tragic one because the policies they're wishing 1360 01:11:00,280 --> 01:11:01,960 Speaker 1: her into, and she has plenty of her own bad 1361 01:11:02,000 --> 01:11:04,559 Speaker 1: instincts here are going to hurt the people they want 1362 01:11:04,560 --> 01:11:06,840 Speaker 1: to help the most. It's gonna be murder on the 1363 01:11:06,840 --> 01:11:10,200 Speaker 1: working poor because what's gonna happen. Growth's gonna drop, and 1364 01:11:10,320 --> 01:11:12,719 Speaker 1: with that there will be no upward pressure on wages, 1365 01:11:13,240 --> 01:11:15,280 Speaker 1: and the people who are barely getting by right now, 1366 01:11:15,320 --> 01:11:18,040 Speaker 1: they're gonna get a worse deal. Now we've had let 1367 01:11:18,040 --> 01:11:20,320 Speaker 1: me push back on you a little bit. The most 1368 01:11:20,360 --> 01:11:23,679 Speaker 1: recent data on wages came out. It was the best 1369 01:11:23,760 --> 01:11:28,720 Speaker 1: numbers we've seen in a while. We're still below the highs, 1370 01:11:28,760 --> 01:11:32,040 Speaker 1: but the gains over the past twelve months have fallen 1371 01:11:32,200 --> 01:11:35,240 Speaker 1: mostly to the middle class and the poor. That's very 1372 01:11:35,320 --> 01:11:39,280 Speaker 1: different than the past ten twenty years. Some of it 1373 01:11:39,400 --> 01:11:42,879 Speaker 1: is the reduction and poverty, some of it is um 1374 01:11:42,960 --> 01:11:46,640 Speaker 1: the lowered number of people with without health care or 1375 01:11:46,680 --> 01:11:49,599 Speaker 1: healthcare insurance, and some of it is just, hey, we're 1376 01:11:49,760 --> 01:11:53,320 Speaker 1: the cycle has now gone far enough that McDonald's, when 1377 01:11:53,360 --> 01:11:57,160 Speaker 1: with Donald's and Walmart, have to raise their bottom wages 1378 01:11:57,640 --> 01:12:01,560 Speaker 1: to attract employees. Hey, we're sty close to full employment 1379 01:12:01,560 --> 01:12:05,040 Speaker 1: at this point. So the pushback is this is working, 1380 01:12:05,080 --> 01:12:07,439 Speaker 1: and we want to continue letting it to work. So 1381 01:12:07,640 --> 01:12:11,400 Speaker 1: go with me. Hillary who will continue these policies as 1382 01:12:11,439 --> 01:12:14,559 Speaker 1: opposed to Donalds, who's going to do who knows what? 1383 01:12:14,880 --> 01:12:17,120 Speaker 1: How do you respond to something like what We are 1384 01:12:17,320 --> 01:12:20,400 Speaker 1: starting to see some wage growth and we're you know, 1385 01:12:20,400 --> 01:12:22,559 Speaker 1: the economy is showing some strength. I agree with that, 1386 01:12:23,160 --> 01:12:28,200 Speaker 1: But her plan appears to be more re redistribution, you know, 1387 01:12:28,560 --> 01:12:30,640 Speaker 1: because she doesn't want to face the hard question the 1388 01:12:30,680 --> 01:12:32,840 Speaker 1: next president has to face, which is, we can't we 1389 01:12:32,840 --> 01:12:35,679 Speaker 1: can't afford the entitlement state we have. So her plan 1390 01:12:35,720 --> 01:12:37,960 Speaker 1: as well, We're gonna make the rich pay more their 1391 01:12:38,000 --> 01:12:40,640 Speaker 1: fair share so I can have my cake and eat 1392 01:12:40,680 --> 01:12:42,599 Speaker 1: it too. I don't have to touch entitlements, which are 1393 01:12:42,640 --> 01:12:46,320 Speaker 1: ticking fiscal time bomb. I can tax more money, which 1394 01:12:46,320 --> 01:12:49,320 Speaker 1: will have a chilling effect on the economy, and I'll 1395 01:12:49,400 --> 01:12:52,120 Speaker 1: keep having growth that way. I think the only real 1396 01:12:52,200 --> 01:12:54,679 Speaker 1: kind of knsie and growth plan she's got that's different 1397 01:12:54,680 --> 01:12:58,160 Speaker 1: than Obama. She's talking about infrastructure spending. I'm actually for 1398 01:12:58,320 --> 01:13:00,639 Speaker 1: infrastructure spending because I don't hate the idea of borrowing 1399 01:13:00,640 --> 01:13:03,840 Speaker 1: money from the Chinese at you know, zero zero into 1400 01:13:03,960 --> 01:13:07,519 Speaker 1: maybe negative industrated. We really skunk them and build things 1401 01:13:07,520 --> 01:13:10,840 Speaker 1: that enhance American productivity. But if we don't give you, 1402 01:13:10,960 --> 01:13:14,000 Speaker 1: for instance, on infrastructure, where would you spend I totally 1403 01:13:14,040 --> 01:13:17,160 Speaker 1: agree with you, but preach to the choir, where should 1404 01:13:17,160 --> 01:13:21,840 Speaker 1: we be spending more money on infrastruct um. There're two baskets. 1405 01:13:22,200 --> 01:13:24,240 Speaker 1: One is the basket of stuff we have to do. 1406 01:13:25,200 --> 01:13:30,479 Speaker 1: But the water supply system is terrible, vulnerable, insecure and 1407 01:13:30,600 --> 01:13:33,559 Speaker 1: falling apart. And if we we have water means throughout 1408 01:13:33,560 --> 01:13:36,200 Speaker 1: the country that are literally a hundred and fifty years 1409 01:13:36,200 --> 01:13:39,000 Speaker 1: old and have never built for fifty years, never been replaced, 1410 01:13:39,040 --> 01:13:41,559 Speaker 1: and unless we don't like the idea of drinking fresh water, 1411 01:13:41,720 --> 01:13:45,240 Speaker 1: there's massive things to be done there. On the other 1412 01:13:45,320 --> 01:13:47,920 Speaker 1: safety one is bridges. A civil engineers society thinks why 1413 01:13:47,920 --> 01:13:51,000 Speaker 1: not to four bridges that are unsafe? Bridges and tunnels 1414 01:13:51,080 --> 01:13:54,200 Speaker 1: terrible totally. And then on the productivity increasing sign our 1415 01:13:54,280 --> 01:13:57,840 Speaker 1: ports um on the West coast where I'm from, and 1416 01:13:58,080 --> 01:14:00,479 Speaker 1: you preach into the right are our ports are going 1417 01:14:00,560 --> 01:14:03,639 Speaker 1: to be under real competitive attack from Chinese finance. Mexican 1418 01:14:03,720 --> 01:14:06,599 Speaker 1: ports tied into the high speed rail system in Texas, 1419 01:14:07,240 --> 01:14:09,400 Speaker 1: and it is incredibly hard to get a can from 1420 01:14:09,400 --> 01:14:12,320 Speaker 1: the Port of Los Angeles into the intermodal system now 1421 01:14:12,680 --> 01:14:14,760 Speaker 1: because we haven't really invested any money the other thing 1422 01:14:14,760 --> 01:14:16,840 Speaker 1: we have to do. I'm a right wing nut, but 1423 01:14:16,840 --> 01:14:18,920 Speaker 1: I also know the facts, and I live in Los Angeles. 1424 01:14:19,200 --> 01:14:22,240 Speaker 1: We lead the country in childhood asthma in the bowl 1425 01:14:22,280 --> 01:14:25,000 Speaker 1: around l A and the heavy sulfur we burn in 1426 01:14:25,040 --> 01:14:27,719 Speaker 1: the port is a big problem there. So my left 1427 01:14:27,720 --> 01:14:29,840 Speaker 1: wing Bernie friends would say shut down the port. I 1428 01:14:29,880 --> 01:14:32,280 Speaker 1: would say, give free electric hook uffs, you know, so 1429 01:14:32,320 --> 01:14:34,800 Speaker 1: they can turn off the heavy diesel there and switch 1430 01:14:34,840 --> 01:14:38,120 Speaker 1: to natural gas shuttle trucks. But that's dollars. But all 1431 01:14:38,120 --> 01:14:40,880 Speaker 1: in all, the healthcare off that cost of having kids 1432 01:14:40,880 --> 01:14:44,800 Speaker 1: with asthma, not the humanitarian side is even more persuasive. 1433 01:14:45,439 --> 01:14:47,439 Speaker 1: I would love to see a port revamp, and we 1434 01:14:47,479 --> 01:14:51,280 Speaker 1: could really use a natural gas ternament on the West coast. 1435 01:14:51,520 --> 01:14:53,840 Speaker 1: Let me see more American made nuclear power plan. Let 1436 01:14:53,840 --> 01:14:56,880 Speaker 1: me let me add that I want to see more 1437 01:14:56,880 --> 01:15:00,840 Speaker 1: exploration of the thorium um plans, which is supposed to 1438 01:15:00,920 --> 01:15:04,320 Speaker 1: be uh, the new technology not much cleaner. But let 1439 01:15:04,320 --> 01:15:07,600 Speaker 1: me give two little caveats to what you said. You know, 1440 01:15:07,680 --> 01:15:11,120 Speaker 1: we really haven't shored up our plants are our ports 1441 01:15:11,120 --> 01:15:15,720 Speaker 1: as much From a security stand I mean, we inspect 1442 01:15:16,240 --> 01:15:22,600 Speaker 1: with Geiger counters and other um checks for nuclear devices 1443 01:15:22,640 --> 01:15:26,160 Speaker 1: something like one in twenty is one thing, and then 1444 01:15:26,200 --> 01:15:29,080 Speaker 1: the other thing is you didn't mention our electrical grid 1445 01:15:29,680 --> 01:15:34,040 Speaker 1: is very much antiquated. It's a patchwork, it's it's vulnerable. 1446 01:15:34,439 --> 01:15:39,960 Speaker 1: That's something else that from both a infrastructure perspective and 1447 01:15:40,080 --> 01:15:43,719 Speaker 1: from a security perspective, we're not doing it. I couldn't. 1448 01:15:43,800 --> 01:15:46,240 Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more. The problem is, though, we need 1449 01:15:46,320 --> 01:15:49,080 Speaker 1: Davis Bacon reform because right now to build public works 1450 01:15:49,120 --> 01:15:52,080 Speaker 1: is about a billion dollars a foot. And uh, that's 1451 01:15:52,080 --> 01:15:55,080 Speaker 1: how we've rebuilt. California. Governor Pete Wilson after the earthquake 1452 01:15:55,160 --> 01:15:59,160 Speaker 1: had freeway overpasses that have fallen down, and I got 1453 01:15:59,200 --> 01:16:02,479 Speaker 1: to suspend some as bacon stuff. So everything, it's the 1454 01:16:02,560 --> 01:16:05,439 Speaker 1: labor rule. I had a mayor in a in a 1455 01:16:05,479 --> 01:16:08,519 Speaker 1: western state of a growing community, tell me I can 1456 01:16:08,560 --> 01:16:11,760 Speaker 1: build a highway for half of what the FEDS will 1457 01:16:11,800 --> 01:16:14,280 Speaker 1: spend because of some of the labor rules they have. 1458 01:16:14,479 --> 01:16:17,040 Speaker 1: So we meet it halfway. I think the Republican votes 1459 01:16:17,040 --> 01:16:19,320 Speaker 1: for infrastructure where the time now, low interest rates. I'm 1460 01:16:19,360 --> 01:16:22,160 Speaker 1: for borrowing money to make our physical plant. The best 1461 01:16:22,360 --> 01:16:26,559 Speaker 1: fifty year bonded you could. You could refinance a national 1462 01:16:26,680 --> 01:16:29,720 Speaker 1: day everything, totally agree. The other thing, though, is that 1463 01:16:29,800 --> 01:16:32,479 Speaker 1: we don't get entitled in spending under control the other 1464 01:16:32,520 --> 01:16:35,040 Speaker 1: half of the equation. It's going to eat the entire budget, 1465 01:16:35,080 --> 01:16:38,559 Speaker 1: so it's Medicare, Medicaid, social security, particularly Medicare Medicaid. I 1466 01:16:38,600 --> 01:16:40,599 Speaker 1: know I only have you for a few more minutes. 1467 01:16:40,720 --> 01:16:42,960 Speaker 1: Let me jump to some of my favorite questions I 1468 01:16:42,960 --> 01:16:46,960 Speaker 1: asked everybody, um, and I'll keep it really short because 1469 01:16:46,960 --> 01:16:50,559 Speaker 1: I know times of wasting. First thing, favorite books? What 1470 01:16:50,560 --> 01:16:52,559 Speaker 1: what sort of books do you like? Uh? I read 1471 01:16:52,600 --> 01:16:54,639 Speaker 1: a lot of history. I'm kind of a history nerd. 1472 01:16:54,640 --> 01:16:56,920 Speaker 1: I read a lot of everything. I'm a bibliophile. Give me, 1473 01:16:56,920 --> 01:17:00,280 Speaker 1: give me a few names. I like the Earnest May stuff. Um. 1474 01:17:00,400 --> 01:17:03,000 Speaker 1: Ernest Ernest May is a professor at Harvard adviser to 1475 01:17:03,040 --> 01:17:05,200 Speaker 1: the Pentagon. Give me a name of one book, well, 1476 01:17:05,320 --> 01:17:07,760 Speaker 1: Strange Victory, where he does all the war games of 1477 01:17:07,800 --> 01:17:09,559 Speaker 1: how the Germans beat the French from the French had 1478 01:17:09,600 --> 01:17:12,160 Speaker 1: the bigger army and nobody thought even when they runned 1479 01:17:12,160 --> 01:17:16,080 Speaker 1: at West Point the French World War Two, the French win. Uh. 1480 01:17:16,120 --> 01:17:17,760 Speaker 1: He also wrote a great book, I don't know the 1481 01:17:17,760 --> 01:17:22,320 Speaker 1: exact title, about how people argue with historical anecdote evidence 1482 01:17:22,400 --> 01:17:25,200 Speaker 1: Napoleon never attacked in June, that kind of stuff, and 1483 01:17:25,200 --> 01:17:28,760 Speaker 1: how it affected bad policy making in Vietnam. Huh, how 1484 01:17:28,800 --> 01:17:31,599 Speaker 1: people missuse history and arguments. Ernest May he passed away, 1485 01:17:31,640 --> 01:17:34,080 Speaker 1: but he was a giant in that field, so there's 1486 01:17:34,120 --> 01:17:37,320 Speaker 1: no such thing as a bad Ernest May book. Um. 1487 01:17:37,360 --> 01:17:41,800 Speaker 1: In business strategy, I'm a Drucker guyck such of excellence 1488 01:17:41,800 --> 01:17:43,840 Speaker 1: and absolutely just about anything you read. I'm a real 1489 01:17:43,880 --> 01:17:47,880 Speaker 1: fanatic search of excellence. Tops. I'm a value investing nut. 1490 01:17:47,920 --> 01:17:50,720 Speaker 1: My two favorites I think would be well both the 1491 01:17:50,760 --> 01:17:53,639 Speaker 1: Graham stuff and I like Monger's stuff too. And Steph 1492 01:17:53,720 --> 01:17:56,080 Speaker 1: clam and his friend of mine actually have a copy 1493 01:17:56,080 --> 01:17:58,560 Speaker 1: of Margin of I have a PDF of it, but 1494 01:17:58,560 --> 01:18:00,600 Speaker 1: I don't have the physical copy, which now go for 1495 01:18:00,760 --> 01:18:03,120 Speaker 1: like three thousand dollars. Yeah. Luckily he was a friend 1496 01:18:03,160 --> 01:18:04,960 Speaker 1: and I cornered him in his office, found the drawer 1497 01:18:04,960 --> 01:18:07,600 Speaker 1: and he sent me once. But anyway, yeah, yeah, so 1498 01:18:07,640 --> 01:18:12,559 Speaker 1: I I uh, I like that. I I'm a big 1499 01:18:12,600 --> 01:18:14,799 Speaker 1: student of Cold War history because that's, you know, originally 1500 01:18:14,840 --> 01:18:17,439 Speaker 1: what I studied. So yeah, a lot of historical stuff. 1501 01:18:17,840 --> 01:18:20,439 Speaker 1: And um, let me ask you my two favorite questions 1502 01:18:20,439 --> 01:18:23,000 Speaker 1: to wrap us up. So a millennial comes up to you, 1503 01:18:23,040 --> 01:18:25,240 Speaker 1: someone who just graduates college, and said, hey, I want 1504 01:18:25,240 --> 01:18:27,960 Speaker 1: to get into the political consulting game. What sort of 1505 01:18:27,960 --> 01:18:30,599 Speaker 1: advice do you give them? I say, start out trying 1506 01:18:30,600 --> 01:18:32,960 Speaker 1: to run a campaign locally to learn politics. Don't go 1507 01:18:33,000 --> 01:18:36,200 Speaker 1: to d c Uh. It's not where you're gonna learn 1508 01:18:36,240 --> 01:18:38,479 Speaker 1: anything other than build a network to get a job. 1509 01:18:38,520 --> 01:18:39,920 Speaker 1: But then you become a guy with a job and 1510 01:18:40,000 --> 01:18:42,439 Speaker 1: no knowledge, which is we have enough of you can 1511 01:18:42,439 --> 01:18:44,840 Speaker 1: get called congress. Get there later. When in doubt you 1512 01:18:44,880 --> 01:18:47,040 Speaker 1: want to learn politics, go work in the state capital. 1513 01:18:47,360 --> 01:18:51,080 Speaker 1: Oh really, that's very interesting. And our last question, what 1514 01:18:51,240 --> 01:18:55,160 Speaker 1: is it that you know about politics and campaigning today 1515 01:18:55,360 --> 01:18:59,760 Speaker 1: that you wish you knew thirty years ago? Pulling his 1516 01:19:00,040 --> 01:19:04,639 Speaker 1: were rated digital was not only going to become big, 1517 01:19:04,680 --> 01:19:07,760 Speaker 1: but it was gonna eat everything. To quote Mark andreson 1518 01:19:08,800 --> 01:19:14,120 Speaker 1: Um and that this bite the flashy technology, including digital, 1519 01:19:15,320 --> 01:19:19,040 Speaker 1: Never forget it's narrative storytelling and win in doubt. Trust 1520 01:19:19,280 --> 01:19:22,320 Speaker 1: that more than anything else, Mike, this is being middle 1521 01:19:22,320 --> 01:19:25,120 Speaker 1: and end of story. This has been really fascinating. The 1522 01:19:25,160 --> 01:19:28,280 Speaker 1: timing couldn't be better. If people want to find your 1523 01:19:28,439 --> 01:19:32,080 Speaker 1: your writings or your radio show, they go to. Sure, 1524 01:19:32,120 --> 01:19:34,360 Speaker 1: I got a couple of things. I'm on Twitter at 1525 01:19:34,439 --> 01:19:38,080 Speaker 1: Murphy Mike Radio. Free Gop is my weekly podcast, which 1526 01:19:38,080 --> 01:19:39,680 Speaker 1: is a lot of fun. We're doing pretty well with it. 1527 01:19:40,120 --> 01:19:42,960 Speaker 1: And I've got a website that is needs to be 1528 01:19:43,080 --> 01:19:45,639 Speaker 1: updated a little, but I stuck all my commentary writing 1529 01:19:45,640 --> 01:19:50,720 Speaker 1: there and it's called Mike Murphy Commentary dot com. So 1530 01:19:50,880 --> 01:19:53,880 Speaker 1: for those of you who have enjoyed this conversation, you 1531 01:19:53,920 --> 01:19:55,920 Speaker 1: can look Up an Inch or Down an Inch on 1532 01:19:56,000 --> 01:19:59,559 Speaker 1: iTunes and see any of our other hundred and nine 1533 01:19:59,640 --> 01:20:02,479 Speaker 1: or so UH podcasts. I would be remiss if I 1534 01:20:02,600 --> 01:20:06,040 Speaker 1: did not think Michael Batnick, my head of research, Taylor 1535 01:20:06,120 --> 01:20:10,760 Speaker 1: Riggs are booker. H Charlie Vohmer our engineer. We love 1536 01:20:10,880 --> 01:20:15,519 Speaker 1: your feedback and comments. You can send us email at 1537 01:20:15,920 --> 01:20:20,599 Speaker 1: m IB podcast at Bloomberg dot net. I'm Barry Ritults. 1538 01:20:20,720 --> 01:20:24,200 Speaker 1: You've been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.