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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the

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Speaker 1: show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise

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Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Chad Noma. I am joined

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Speaker 1: as always by my bff, my co host, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my compadre professional better Simon Hunter Heado Simon Chad.

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Speaker 2: It's always bittersweet this first week of two of the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl week because it's it's the first time it

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Speaker 2: feels like this season is actually over right. The super

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Speaker 2: Bowl as much as a football game it is. I

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Speaker 2: don't know how you spend most of your Sundays. It

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Speaker 2: is not a normal summon Sunday for any football fan. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: you're going to some party, You're talking to some guy,

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Speaker 2: missing plays, you're trying to watch commercials. The whole thing

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Speaker 2: is very upside down, where you know, the Sunday we

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Speaker 2: get the two best games of the year usually, and

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Speaker 2: the Monday wake up is just brutal. For me, is

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Speaker 2: someone that you know, my big excuse in life is

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Speaker 2: for and it's only hey, can you get together? Can

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Speaker 2: you this? No? I got football now, there's no excuse.

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Speaker 2: It's like, well, you got one game left. How busy

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Speaker 2: can you be? And I always say that's that's fair.

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Speaker 2: So it's it's bitterswee waken up. But I'm excited to

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Speaker 2: talk about Super Bowl as always. It's the best game

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Speaker 2: of the year, the biggest game of the year. And

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Speaker 2: you know, as much as people want to complain about

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Speaker 2: the match and stuff like that, to me, there is

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Speaker 2: never a bad matchup because we got no we got gambling. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's always good.

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Speaker 1: Look, I'm with you that I have spent my adult

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Speaker 1: life working in sports media and using I need to

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Speaker 1: watch football as an excuse for everything. And because I

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Speaker 1: know my wife does not listen to this show, and

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Speaker 1: I know my kids do not listen to the show.

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Speaker 1: It is the greatest get out of anything card or

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Speaker 1: leave something early card that exists is being able to say, Hun,

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Speaker 1: it's Thursday night. I got to watch the Bengals Jags tonight.

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Speaker 1: I got to be able to talk about this game,

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Speaker 1: you know what I'm saying, Or like it's Sunday afternoon,

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Speaker 1: I can't go to our friends to hang out on

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Speaker 1: Sunday afternoon. I'm taking notes, or my favorite my wife,

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Speaker 1: who I love dearly, is very busy she's an architect,

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Speaker 1: she has a thriving practice, and she doesn't like have

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Speaker 1: time to chit chat during the day. And so I'll

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Speaker 1: walk down from our you know, from my office which

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Speaker 1: is on the third floor, to her office, which is

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Speaker 1: on the second floor, which is our older son's old bedroom,

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Speaker 1: and I'll walk in and be like, how's it going,

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Speaker 1: let's gossip, let's you know, talk about stuff. She's like,

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Speaker 1: I got no time for you. I'm very busy. I

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Speaker 1: can't chit chat in the middle of the day. The

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Speaker 1: only time she ever actually wants to engage me in

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Speaker 1: conversation is Sunday afternoons when I'm watching football, taking notes,

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Speaker 1: sweating bets, thinking about the contest, thinking about the games

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Speaker 1: we've put in the contest. We're going to end up

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Speaker 1: the day with a winning record. Sunday afternoons during the

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Speaker 1: football season are my most stressful time of the year.

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Speaker 1: Those are always when my wife wants to come in

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Speaker 1: and just have the longest, most detailed conversation about what's

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Speaker 1: happening in our lives in the world. And I keep

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Speaker 1: having to say to her, just pretend this is my office,

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Speaker 1: and my office is thirty miles from our house. I

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Speaker 1: am not here. I cannot have a conversation. That excuse

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Speaker 1: is gone. It's over, buddy, I'm doing a very special

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Speaker 1: shame on us to start the show, Simon, do you

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Speaker 1: know why why the Super Bowl matchup between the Seahawks

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Speaker 1: and the Patriots was actually script did months ago? We

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Speaker 1: spent all that preseason time talking about the Rams at

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Speaker 1: longer odds, or the Packers at longer odds, or you know,

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Speaker 1: taking the Chiefs and the Ravens at both wess than

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Speaker 1: twelve to one, or whatever it was. Whoever, none of

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Speaker 1: you saw this going around yesterday in between all the

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Speaker 1: sort of sad but why penguin memes. Back in September,

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Speaker 1: the NFL released a Super Bowl poster for this season

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Speaker 1: with a bunch of NFL stars facing a massive Lombardo Trophy.

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Speaker 1: All illustration right like and at the very back were

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Speaker 1: most prominent. In the foreground is Saquon Barkley, then it's Purty,

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Speaker 1: and then it's Burrow, and then it's Mahomes, and it's

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Speaker 1: jj Watt at the very front, closest to the trophy.

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Speaker 1: You can see it here if you're watching the show.

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell's put it up closest to the trophy on

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Speaker 1: the left at the very front, Sam Darnold and Drake

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Speaker 1: may Simon. The script was written, if only we had

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Speaker 1: played closer attention, we would have been a Patriot Seahawks matchup.

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Speaker 1: At one hundred to one. That is the longest odds

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Speaker 1: for a Super Bowl matchup in fifty years.

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Speaker 2: I just can't help but rage. I never would have

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Speaker 2: saw it because I would just be instantly raging about

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Speaker 2: the fact that they didn't put the Super Bowl MVP

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Speaker 2: from the year before all the and put Barkley in.

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Speaker 2: I thought about that too, most disrespected player in the league.

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Speaker 2: It never ends, Jet, It just never ends.

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Speaker 1: It's actually, it's so funny to me I saw that.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, really, no, Jalen Hurts.

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Speaker 2: No Party makes it not Christian McCaffrey. They put Party

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Speaker 2: in there with McCaffrey. But no, let's put MVP. Unbelievable.

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Speaker 1: Here are some other interesting stats that I'm crib cribbing

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Speaker 1: from our friend Ben Fox, my old ESPN colleague who's

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Speaker 1: at Yahoo's Sports Now. Never before have two teams with

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Speaker 1: preseason Super Bowl odds of more than fifty to one

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Speaker 1: met in the Super Bowl in that time span, and

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Speaker 1: the closest approximation to any of this was all the

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Speaker 1: way back in nineteen ninety two when the San Francisco

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers had fifty to one odds and the

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Speaker 1: Bengals had sixty to one odds and they met in

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl sixteen. We could have had Simon, we could

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Speaker 1: have had the Patriots at eighty to one, We could

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Speaker 1: have had the Seahawks at sixty to one both to

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Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. Neither of us had either of them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and the odds they sound right to me when

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Speaker 2: you break it down that way, when you look back

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Speaker 2: at all the unknowns for both these teams. We knew

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Speaker 2: the schedule right was breaking easy for the Patriots, but

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Speaker 2: to think they had to steal this division and then

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Speaker 2: the thought was, well, they're gonna have to go through

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Speaker 2: a little more Josh Allen my Homes in the playoffs,

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Speaker 2: and it broke the other way they'd had to face

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Speaker 2: any of them. So we love betting long shots, and

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Speaker 2: we've been joking how we've been due for a good

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Speaker 2: long shot just because I think you right it out.

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Speaker 2: The only one, the only really one we've had in

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Speaker 2: about nine ten years, was that Bengals team. Yeah, one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty to one. Joe Burrow coming off in

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Speaker 2: a cl terra his rookie year, you know, low berry,

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Speaker 2: low expectations for that team, and they shocked the world.

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Speaker 2: I still think Drake May and this Patriots team is

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Speaker 2: more shocking to me than that Bengals team making it

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Speaker 2: just because you know, Joe Burrow number one pick, he

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Speaker 2: did it. He made a crazy run with lsu. It's

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Speaker 2: like we kind of knew hid that talent in him.

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Speaker 2: This run by Drake May, even though it's not been

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Speaker 2: all about Drake by right truly been about the Patriots defense. Still,

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Speaker 2: like we keep saying, Drake May has made the play

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Speaker 2: in these in these situations that's got him here. So

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Speaker 2: those odds, Yeah, we know a couple of people that

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Speaker 2: betted props to them. And I joke with you, all

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Speaker 2: I had left was that rams All that was the

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Speaker 2: only future I left And uh yeah, that was that

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Speaker 2: was a dead ticket. So I had a couple of

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Speaker 2: people reach out before the year. You know, obviously Seahawks

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Speaker 2: fans at their core is saying I was missing it.

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Speaker 2: You're you're you're wrong about Sam Darnold, this team, this

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Speaker 2: defense is gonna win the best in the league. And

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Speaker 2: I just kept saying your division so hard, like, are

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Speaker 2: you really gonna be the best team in that division?

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Speaker 2: I just couldn't believe. It's like to me, I trust

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Speaker 2: the forty niners or trusted the Rams that just did

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Speaker 2: not trust them to win that division. And my god,

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Speaker 2: it took the last game of the year, but they

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Speaker 2: did it. They won that division. And they've proven out

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Speaker 2: they've been the best team, you know, since what mid

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Speaker 2: November all the way through, they've just been the most

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Speaker 2: well coached best team. So they've they've earned it.

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Speaker 1: By the way. They've been the best team since mid November,

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Speaker 1: which is about exactly when Sam Darnold's actual performance started

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Speaker 1: a creator and we're gonna truly like if you look

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Speaker 1: at his numbers, like his QBR was something like in

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Speaker 1: the sixties for the first nine weeks of the year

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Speaker 1: and in the thirties for the rest of the season,

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Speaker 1: like he has not been the guy that got him

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Speaker 1: where they are right now. But one more note on

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Speaker 1: the preseason odds. The Arizona Cardinals actually had shorter odds

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Speaker 1: to make the Super Bowl before the season began. Then

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Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks did. And I will say about that

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow team, he also beat Patrick Mahomes. Like I

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Speaker 1: think the expectations throughout the year for that Bengals team

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Speaker 1: were just so different. We're going to have Evan Abrams

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Speaker 1: on the show on Thursday. Everyone who's a longtime listener

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Speaker 1: knows Evan, our former colleague from Action who was one

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Speaker 1: of my longtime good buddies who worked with me back

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Speaker 1: when I was doing my columns and helping me research

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Speaker 1: them at ESPN and going back fifteen years. He's going

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Speaker 1: to come on the show. Simon always references him. He

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Speaker 1: was a regular on our show on Action. He's going

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Speaker 1: to come out with a bunch of trends, and one

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Speaker 1: of the trends that we both love betting, is the

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Speaker 1: super Bowl matchup to be between two of the teams

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Speaker 1: that have two of the five teams that have the

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Speaker 1: shortest odds to make the super Bowl. Because there had

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Speaker 1: been consistent for twelve of the past thirteen years, the

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Speaker 1: exception being that Bengals team and the exception being this year.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you looked at next year's Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl feet it is the most wide open in my

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Speaker 2: lifetime it's ever been, which is really fun, exciting where

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Speaker 2: we're all overacted this season where I'm going to lean

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Speaker 2: into just betting what's happened in the past and probably

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Speaker 2: get I got a lot of good value, a lot

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Speaker 2: of these quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god. Like I don't know when Patrick Maholmes

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Speaker 1: is coming back, but I'm gonna want those Kansas City Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: We went three to two in the contest last week.

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Speaker 1: Simon big bounce back for the good guys. We loved

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Speaker 1: dare At Stidham for his huge throw early in the

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Speaker 1: game that led to the Broncos score. We love Stitty

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Speaker 1: for the pick on the last throw of the game.

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Speaker 1: Those were two of our victories. We won with the

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Speaker 1: Broncos plus four and a half Study to throw that pick,

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Speaker 1: Seattle minus two and a half. We lost with New

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Speaker 1: England Denver over and Jackson Smith and Jigba to score

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Speaker 1: a touchdown. I'll tell everybody they got to go read

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Speaker 1: our friends at Wickersham's story at ESPN dot com. He

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Speaker 1: was in the room with Peyton after that fourth down

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Speaker 1: call after the game. Incredible drama, insight, thought process, really

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Speaker 1: really good. In our nine week card up that contest.

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Speaker 1: We are now fifty six to forty nine, handing you

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Speaker 1: into the final week at the Super Bowl. We've got

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Speaker 1: one week left. The leader board for Sharper Square Pro

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Speaker 1: Football Pickup Contest looks like this. We have four entries

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Speaker 1: tied at the top with twenty eight wins, but eleven

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Speaker 1: more right behind them with twenty seven. It's going to

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Speaker 1: be a photo finish. We can't wait to announce the

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Speaker 1: winner the Tuesday after the Super Bowl. Good luck. This

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Speaker 1: is our Tuesday Super Bowl show. We're done with chat choice.

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Speaker 1: We are, we don't have to be, but we are

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Speaker 1: going to have a brass Balls Simon. I think it's

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Speaker 1: up to you if you want to do a Simon says.

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Speaker 2: Of course.

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Speaker 1: Of course. We'll have our normal Tuesday and Thursday shows.

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Speaker 1: We don't have any more Sunday show. This week's slate

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Speaker 1: for contest players will include sides and totals for the

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Speaker 1: conference for the Super Bowl. But if you aren't in love,

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Speaker 1: we will still have some player props as well. It's

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Speaker 1: time enough housekeeping. New England versus Seattle in Santa Clara.

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Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks four and a half point favorites. The total

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Speaker 1: is forty six. The line opened at three and a

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Speaker 1: half immediately shot up to five at some books. It

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Speaker 1: is settled at four and a half. I know sharp

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Speaker 1: money came in at that three and a half. I

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Speaker 1: bettered at three and a half, just to take a

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Speaker 1: little taste, twenty six percent of the bets around New England. Simon,

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Speaker 1: you've been a little bit cagey about this. When we

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Speaker 1: talked about it on Sunday, you were cagy. I'm curious

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Speaker 1: to get your thoughts. I don't know, like I was

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Speaker 1: trying to press you on Sunday night, what do you

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Speaker 1: think of the Seahawks? And I told you I had

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Speaker 1: betted at three and a half, and instead of giving

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Speaker 1: me sort of a straight oh, I like that, or yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to play the Seahawks, You're like, well, you

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Speaker 1: better hope it goes up.

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Speaker 2: Not true at all. You're he's the victim. You're one

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Speaker 2: of these people, aren't you. Twice I simply said to

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Speaker 2: you take the Seahawks three and a half because it's

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Speaker 2: not going to go down. It's really going to go up.

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Speaker 2: That's literally my direct quote to you.

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Speaker 1: That's not what you said. It's not how I listen.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, how you listen. And I was brained at

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Speaker 2: a time, and I still remember that conversation.

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Speaker 1: So that's not how I listen. It's not how it's

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Speaker 1: not how I interpret that conversation.

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Speaker 2: It's going to be more more of a friend telling them.

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Speaker 1: If you don't know by now, Simon that I need constant,

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Speaker 1: over the top affirmation about what I'm saying and my choices,

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Speaker 1: then you don't even know me anymore. You know, I

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Speaker 1: need you to say, Chad, that's a sharp play. If

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Speaker 1: I don't hear that, then it might as well be

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Speaker 1: oh my god. I'm I mean.

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Speaker 2: I guess it's a sharp play. But I mean, I

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Speaker 2: just you know, I try to be as supporting as

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Speaker 2: I can be. I'm trying to find my bet. Now

261
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Speaker 2: they don't have it up exact why. Simon says, I

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Speaker 2: want to give out unfortunately people. So it's it's Simon says,

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Speaker 2: whenever you can get it, get it. It's not going

264
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Speaker 2: to change. I don't care what the number is the

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Speaker 2: under in the first quarter. I want to play a game,

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Speaker 2: Simon says, always blindly take the first quarter under in

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. But Tom Brady, it was a gift

268
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Speaker 2: by the gods he I think in his career, out

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Speaker 2: of his whatever eleven SUPERWL appearances, he went over the

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Speaker 2: first quarter once, but every other quarter it's the same

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Speaker 2: for everybody, right, It's you're waiting all day for this game.

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Speaker 2: Everyone's so tight in that first quarter. It's such a

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Speaker 2: feel out and these are two good defenses. So you know, again,

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Speaker 2: I don't know what it's going to be. The total

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Speaker 2: open to forty six has come down to a couple

276
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Speaker 2: of different books, so I'm assuming their first quarter will

277
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Speaker 2: come down as well. But if we're lucky and they

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Speaker 2: give us a ten and a half, ten to no

279
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Speaker 2: and er Simons says slaim it so unfortunately, Like I've

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Speaker 2: gone to a couple of different books since we've been

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Speaker 2: on and I just haven't found it. But yeah, that's

282
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Speaker 2: for right now. Like for we're talking first bet, I'm

283
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Speaker 2: gonna make for a decent amount of money that that's

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Speaker 2: gonna be one of my bigger positions. But yeah, this

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Speaker 2: game breaking it down, I love it, Like watching you know,

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Speaker 2: film all season on both these teams, you know, both

287
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Speaker 2: have their glaring weaknesses and they've overcome a lot of

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Speaker 2: it with just really good coaching. And you know, we

289
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Speaker 2: talk all the time, how important the quarterback position is

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Speaker 2: and how important important the coaches, and you look at

291
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Speaker 2: this matchup and it's like, you know, too, Coach of

292
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Speaker 2: Year candidates like the.

293
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Speaker 1: NB the two coach of your candidates, the shortest odds

294
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Speaker 1: for Abel and McDonald's.

295
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Speaker 2: Yeah, and which is again so fair when you like

296
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Speaker 2: break it down when you gave those future Super Bowl

297
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Speaker 2: odds and it's like, yeah, Ben Johnson, is he deserving?

298
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Speaker 2: Of course, but you know these two teams, they got

299
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Speaker 2: the one, they got the two seed. That's why these

300
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Speaker 2: coaches are where they're at. So you know, I okay

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Speaker 2: Man said, he's only you've seen seven and a half

302
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Speaker 2: one fifteen for that first quarter, which again, that sounds right.

303
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Speaker 2: I'd price it like that, So I was hoping we

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Speaker 2: get the ten seven and a half. The books seem like

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Speaker 2: they're on it, so I'd still take it. But yeah,

306
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Speaker 2: hopefully you can be patient, maybe get a better number

307
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Speaker 2: than that. But really wanted to be on the Patriots

308
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Speaker 2: honestly when this number first came out, because it's just

309
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Speaker 2: like everyone's going to react, right they played in that.

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Speaker 2: Of course it's natural to overreact, but why is this

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Speaker 2: number not seven? I do not get how low they

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Speaker 2: opened it the fours four and a half. I could

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Speaker 2: be missing it again. I'm not going to rush to

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Speaker 2: have to bet it, but you can tell I'm heavily

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Speaker 2: leaning toward the Seahawks. I think this number is way

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Speaker 2: way off. And I'm excited to hear all the trends

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Speaker 2: from Evan because right now, the trends I found, they

318
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Speaker 2: all lean heavily into the Seahawks team like they really do.

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Speaker 2: Favorite now there are You know, we talk every year

320
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Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl. If you blindly just bet the

321
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Speaker 2: dog every year, you will make a profit. I've talked

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Speaker 2: about this at nauseum. If you like the dog, yes

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Speaker 2: you could take the number right, but you have to

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Speaker 2: play the minus two and a half on their side, right,

325
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Speaker 2: you have to take the line on the dogs, just

326
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Speaker 2: because we've talked. In the history of football, however long

327
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Speaker 2: the Super Bowls in a round, there's only been one time,

328
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Speaker 2: one time the number felve between two, so it's just

329
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Speaker 2: an anomaly. The number never really falls on tour or one.

330
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Speaker 2: So if you like the Patriots, sure take the four

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Speaker 2: and a half, but you also should be taking the

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Speaker 2: adjusted line. Same with the Seahawks. If you like, if

333
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Speaker 2: you're like me and you like the Seahawks. Here I

334
00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,479
Speaker 2: have it say grated at seven, I'm gonna take the

335
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Speaker 2: minus six and a half. I'm taking all numbers that

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Speaker 2: get better. Juice on this just because I talk about them.

337
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Speaker 2: I bet really big on the super Bowl. Now it's

338
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Speaker 2: not gonna be as big as I was last week,

339
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Speaker 2: right for Denver with me, but the super Bowl, just

340
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Speaker 2: like we're Denver. Last week, every book I called up

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Speaker 2: welcome Denver money. Right. That's because it's the playoffs and

342
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Speaker 2: they're trying to balance their books. It's the same with

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Speaker 2: the super Bowl. Even if everyone in the ward is

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Speaker 2: on the Seahawks, They're still gonna take my Seahawks money. Now,

345
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Speaker 2: it might only be ten k here one book, or

346
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Speaker 2: a thousand year at one book, or even some books

347
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Speaker 2: if they have I wanted the book's name, but a

348
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Speaker 2: book took a million dollars really quickly on the Patriot's

349
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:11,280
Speaker 2: money line right away.

350
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Speaker 1: It was circa I mean, it's all over social I

351
00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:18,919
Speaker 1: actually texted the bookmaker there and said, was that professional money?

352
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Speaker 1: How would you categorize that? He wouldn't give it.

353
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Speaker 2: Up, and respected him for not by not giving it up.

354
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Speaker 1: Though, Why do you say that because that's.

355
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Speaker 2: Joe Public That ain't No, I do not think that's

356
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Speaker 2: a pro.

357
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Speaker 1: I don't know either, But I also know that every

358
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Speaker 1: year in Vegas there's always some professional who's making a

359
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Speaker 1: huge money line bed on an underdog.

360
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Speaker 2: Are sure. I just don't know why he would come

361
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:46,320
Speaker 2: in right then and there when if he can just wait,

362
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Speaker 2: this number is going to go up, he would have

363
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,159
Speaker 2: got a better number. Like, I don't know what Proud

364
00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:51,919
Speaker 2: be thinking, Oh this is going to go down, Like

365
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,320
Speaker 2: the public's gonna hammer other pros are gonna hammer this

366
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Speaker 2: Patriot's side. That's just again, I like.

367
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Speaker 1: Your theory because I'm already on the Seahawks and I

368
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Speaker 1: don't want to find reasons to not be on the Seahawks.

369
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Speaker 2: Well there's good. I mean, it's always split. It's just

370
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Speaker 2: you want more pros to be on the Seahawks, which

371
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Speaker 2: I do think is gonna happen. Like I said, I'm

372
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Speaker 2: not the only one of the model that has his

373
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Speaker 2: team way favorite. I told you last week I gave

374
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Speaker 2: chat a little bit of peak behind the curtains that

375
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Speaker 2: every pro I talked to had that game basically get it,

376
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,280
Speaker 2: pick them. They It's what I talked about all Yeah,

377
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,840
Speaker 2: the Rams, everyone had them modeled so high. They went

378
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:28,560
Speaker 2: zero to three in the playoffs against the spread. So

379
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,080
Speaker 2: it just shows how our models didn't catch up to

380
00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:33,639
Speaker 2: what that RAMS team had become. They just were not

381
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,679
Speaker 2: as good as we all had measured them out. I

382
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:40,080
Speaker 2: still think not just me, other professions are undergrade in

383
00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 2: the Seahawks teams. It's what Chad said, though. The stinger

384
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 2: screw with my model is the Sam Darnold turnover rate. Yeah,

385
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:49,440
Speaker 2: he not just throws picks. He fumbles a normal amount

386
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:51,800
Speaker 2: of times. So that's really messing with the numbers and

387
00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:53,600
Speaker 2: the lines. And that's why last week I told Chad,

388
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Speaker 2: I like the secks where it's like the books don't

389
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:57,879
Speaker 2: make mistakes like this in these type of games. Like

390
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Speaker 2: that's why I felt like it was a professional trap

391
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 2: that MS line because all this smart RAMS money was

392
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,640
Speaker 2: coming in, that number wasn't budging. I'm happy to see

393
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:07,560
Speaker 2: that smart money did come on the seaalks and I

394
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:09,560
Speaker 2: did drive it up right away. That wasn't public money

395
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 2: driving this number up. That was really smart professional money.

396
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,880
Speaker 2: So yeah, like again we're gonna have Evan on He'll

397
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:17,560
Speaker 2: give out all these stats, but the one that jumps

398
00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:19,639
Speaker 2: out if you just blindly bet the underdog in the

399
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,679
Speaker 2: Super Bowl since two thousand and four, you are fifteen

400
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 2: and seven against the spread. Just blindly bet the underdog.

401
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:27,920
Speaker 2: So right there, if you're someone that just you want

402
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:29,880
Speaker 2: to be a charing you want to fade the public here,

403
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:32,480
Speaker 2: I have no issue that I get where you're coming from.

404
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 2: But I tell you all the time, fading the public

405
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,480
Speaker 2: and the Super Bowl does not work. It just there

406
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 2: is no public. It's there's so much professional money here

407
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 2: it kind of dilutes it. You can't just blindly say well,

408
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 2: I'm just fading the public here. Now, if this was

409
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 2: you know, Stitty coming in with Denver, then that's a

410
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 2: position of you're truly fading the public where it doesn't

411
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,760
Speaker 2: matter if Stitty put up three hundred yards. People were

412
00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:00,440
Speaker 2: not going to be backing him in this Super Bowl

413
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 2: right there. Were going to back the Seahawks team. And

414
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 2: you know, we got lucky here. It's a good matchup.

415
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 2: And right away when it came out, I was like, okay,

416
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 2: I'm like Chad, here, I want to like this, this

417
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,159
Speaker 2: Seahawks team, and I'm going to try and try to

418
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 2: find some Seahawk numbers that really back up my feel

419
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:19,360
Speaker 2: for this, which is they're just such a dominant team

420
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 2: right now, and it doesn't feel like they've walked into this.

421
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,280
Speaker 2: They feel like they've dominated and won, you know, pretty

422
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,320
Speaker 2: impressively all their games. And the stat that jumped out

423
00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:31,920
Speaker 2: right away. Since nineteen ninety, you know, we've had favorites

424
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:35,600
Speaker 2: here that went perfect. In the conference championship game, both

425
00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 2: teams obviously won, they went obviously the Patriots won, the

426
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,159
Speaker 2: Seahawks won, So we got six and oh in the

427
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 2: conference championship. So that happened in ninety one, in two

428
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,160
Speaker 2: thousand and four, and obviously it's happened now the last

429
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 2: five chad the favorites in the Super Bowl and well

430
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 2: five and oh woe and one against the spreads. We've

431
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 2: seen historical data show the best teams tend to and

432
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 2: when it's like the Year of Chalk, which I doesn't

433
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:01,719
Speaker 2: feel like that way because I just gave you all

434
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,400
Speaker 2: those crazy stats, but it has been right, the favorites,

435
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 2: I've just been winning in the playoffs here, and that

436
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,400
Speaker 2: happened the Conference championship, which was an omilye right, both

437
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 2: favorites winning it doesn't happen that often. I just gave

438
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 2: you those numbers. It's only happened six times since nineteen ninety.

439
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 2: I mean it plays out right. When these two favorites

440
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 2: make it to the Super Bowl, it tends to show

441
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,640
Speaker 2: the better team, which largely is the Seahawks. They tend

442
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 2: to dominate this matchup.

443
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:27,680
Speaker 1: Let's do a quick word from our friends at hard

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473
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Speaker 1: and Virginia. We can talk about all the trends in

474
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 1: the world, and they do have impact here, But the

475
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 1: things that stand out to me are going to be

476
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: about the narratives for this game, the narrative of the

477
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:37,120
Speaker 1: Seahawks defense, the narrative of can you trust Sam Darnold,

478
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 1: the narrative of did the Patriots play anybody? And does

479
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 1: that matter? And that continued into the playoffs, where they

480
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 1: got c. J. Stroud on the road in bad weather

481
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 1: without Nico Collins. They got the Broncos in Denver with

482
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:03,880
Speaker 1: Jared Stido in a blizzard. So they continue to get

483
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 1: the very, very good breaks. I'm not discounting Mike Vrabel.

484
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 1: I'm not discounting Drake May. Drake May led the league

485
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 1: in completetion percentage. She had a magical year. But at

486
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,640
Speaker 1: some point we need to do the analysis of these

487
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 1: two teams. On the field. The Seahawks defense is just

488
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 1: so much better than anything they faced, including the last

489
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 1: two defense. The opponent's success rate on runs against Seattle

490
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:36,119
Speaker 1: thirty four percent, lowest in the league. EPA per play

491
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 1: on those plays is minus point one point five, also

492
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 1: lowest in the league. Opponents have managed minus thirty four

493
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 1: first downs over expectation when rushing against Seattle, by far,

494
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 1: the lowest in the League. The next closest is the

495
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 1: Texans at minus fourteen, So we know what the Patriots

496
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 1: are going to have to do here. We know that

497
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: they're going to have to put the ball in Drake

498
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 1: May's hands and he's going to have to find ways

499
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 1: to beat the Seahawks defense deep, which we saw a

500
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 1: little bit of softness against the Rams, like they were

501
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 1: that the Rams offense was able to find openings and

502
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,879
Speaker 1: do that. But I don't think the Patriots have the

503
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 1: same kind of weapons that the Rams do between DeVante

504
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 1: Adams and Puka Nukua and at tight end either, so fascinating,

505
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 1: fascinating matchup. You really have to believe the Patriots can

506
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 1: level up in order to be competitive in this game.

507
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 2: And I always say I try to warp people off

508
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 2: from diving too much into regular season numbers. I know

509
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 2: you can do DVOA, which they it consistently updates the

510
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 2: sea goes along, which is usually a better way to

511
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 2: try to dive into that stuff, but the whole season

512
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 2: numbers don't help totally, especially when you're the margins so small.

513
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,120
Speaker 2: That's why I do try to lean into the trends here.

514
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 2: I know people they get sick of t ends pretty easily.

515
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 2: But it's it's just a safer bet because it's just

516
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 2: history continually repeats itself in the super Bowl, like the

517
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 2: Super Bowl is just its own season in my mind,

518
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 2: I really treat it that way, where it's such a

519
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:13,640
Speaker 2: unique game, it's so weirdly shaped. And yeah, Drake May,

520
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 2: me and Chad we have no idea how he's gonna

521
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 2: perform in this type of Again, not that he hasn't

522
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 2: done much in the playoffs, but he's faced really hard

523
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 2: defenses in terrible weather and climbing, and his offensive line

524
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 2: is atrocious right now. They can't block anybody. And you know,

525
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 2: if you want to do dive into their season, I mean,

526
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 2: if you really think about the last good offense they played,

527
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 2: I mean was the Bills. I think that was like

528
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,719
Speaker 2: the fourteenth of thirteenth of December, and they gave up

529
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 2: thirty five points. Josh Allen, who did nothing in the

530
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,240
Speaker 2: first half, dominated them the second half, totally had his way,

531
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 2: got that defense on their heels. And you've seen the

532
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 2: Seahawks team is not that different than that Josh Allen team,

533
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 2: which is they want to establish the run and a

534
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 2: lot of action throws. I mean they live and die

535
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 2: off the play action throws and you know, as as

536
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:08,879
Speaker 2: hard of a path as it was right they faced,

537
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 2: I think it was something crazy like they beat five

538
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:14,239
Speaker 2: or seven top three defenses on their way to make

539
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl, the Patriots team, which was really impressive

540
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 2: in itself. I do think that this is like a

541
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 2: different beast here, Like this is totally different in the

542
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:27,680
Speaker 2: sense that, you know, as great as Stafford was against

543
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 2: the Seahawks, he had to make perfect over fingertip type

544
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 2: of throws, like he was really in his bag throwing

545
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 2: to what Chad just said, Puka Nakun DeVante Adams, Like,

546
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 2: as much respect as I give the Digs, they're different worlds.

547
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 2: Their catch rateses are just are not the same. And

548
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 2: you know, I'm excited to see what Josh McDaniel does

549
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 2: to attack this yous team, because, like we said, you

550
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 2: can't attack them like they do have guys you can

551
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 2: attack and lock in on them. We saw when Stafford

552
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 2: figured that out, he just kept doing it right, kept

553
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 2: going after he was like, Okay, that guy's on tilt.

554
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,959
Speaker 2: I'm going to keep attack on that dB And it worked, right,

555
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 2: It kept them in the game until it did it

556
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 2: like you saw eventually McDonald makes the adjustment, which was

557
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 2: so apprised by the Seahawks team. They eventually make the adjustment.

558
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 2: They get the stops and you saw Stafford if Like

559
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 2: at one point if like he pleted ten passes in

560
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 2: a row and then all of a sudden in that

561
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 2: red zone they bogged down. They made it so tight.

562
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 2: I think at one point they only rushed three pass rushers.

563
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 2: They dropped everyone back, and it's like, okay, we're not

564
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 2: giving you anything. You got to use your legs. It's

565
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 2: gonna be the flip side here, right, They're always going

566
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 2: to have a spy on Drake Mack, like they're just

567
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 2: like us. They're going to see Drake may he did

568
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 2: not trust his arm at all in his last time.

569
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 2: He really relied on his legs. You can say, well

570
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 2: that was because of the weather. It was like then

571
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 2: in the first half before say.

572
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 1: He had he had twenty two yards rushing in the

573
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: first half, and then even into the third quarter, that's

574
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 1: when he really took off rushing. The snow didn't start

575
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 1: until midway through the third quarter. He was he already

576
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 1: had sixty yards rushing by.

577
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 2: Then, and like, that's to me McDaniel's he'll lean into

578
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 2: that a little bit as well because he knows and

579
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 2: we already talked about Sam Darnolds Achilles heel as a turnovers,

580
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 2: it's the same with Drake may And that feels like

581
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 2: with two dominant defenses, which these two defenses have been,

582
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 2: that's what's gonna decide it. Honestly in the day. So

583
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 2: you know, I'm gonna get I have a lot of

584
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 2: weird bets. We're gonna talk about this coming up, but

585
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 2: like first score safety one hundred to one or eighty

586
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 2: to one, wherever it's gonna be, I'm gonna be making

587
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 2: that bet, like I'm gonna I'm gonna getting real weird

588
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 2: with it. People, just because we talk all the time,

589
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 2: like defensive touchdowns. I know it's odds aren't gonna be

590
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 2: great for us, just because Cooper de Gene had to

591
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 2: pick six last year. But that's a bet I like

592
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 2: to make every year, like it's just for some reason,

593
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 2: either we get a kick return or a pick. These

594
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 2: things happen in the Super Bowl more often than they

595
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 2: do for just a normal regular season game, And like

596
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 2: we talk all the time, you get crazy odds usually. Bet.

597
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 2: Now that's The only issue I'm gonna have is those odds.

598
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 2: I don't think we'll be as good as that been

599
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 2: whatever the past three four years, just because that's fresher

600
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 2: people's minds right a picks. Now we have two heavy

601
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 2: turnover quarterbacks. Yeah, I think a lot of people are

602
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 2: gonna be on that one. But that's another one I

603
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 2: will dive more into. But yeah, it's you know, looking

604
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 2: at this matchup, I I do wish I could come

605
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 2: in here and just tell people give out the Seawks

606
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 2: right away. I'm gonna be patient on it, hoping it

607
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 2: comes down we get the four. But I got no

608
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 2: issue if you want to bet it now, I'm just

609
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 2: I'm not rushing to bet it. Obviously. I'm interesting what

610
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 2: the pros are doing with this one because it just

611
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 2: feels way too easy. Feels like good books hanging a

612
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 2: terrible number and they're about to just get beaten, beaten

613
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 2: badly in this one where it's like, again, I'm not

614
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 2: the only one thinking it. I know prey pros out there.

615
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 2: I've already bet Syawks mine thirteen and a half, like

616
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 2: they've already taken that type of position. Yeah, they just

617
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 2: this feels like a type of again, that can just

618
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 2: be an absolute blowout. Patriots could roll because of what

619
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 2: we talked about. Yes, do they deserve to be here, Yes,

620
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 2: but we've talked about it, like, have they had any

621
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 2: type of impressive win where you have a ton of

622
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 2: confidence in this team. No, all we see right now

623
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 2: is they have a bunch of flaws and as good

624
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 2: as their defense has been, this is going to be

625
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 2: by far the best offense they've played since that Bill's team.

626
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 2: And like, this is not just the best offense that

627
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 2: you know they came out of the NFC. This is

628
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 2: an offense that when they're clicking, they roll teams. I mean,

629
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 2: you just go through the Seahawks schedule this year against

630
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 2: bad teams, they never take the foot off the guests

631
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 2: when they're when they're beating up teams, they really do

632
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 2: open it up. And even going back to that game

633
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 2: against the Rams, like, I loved what they did with

634
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 2: jsent right JSN line up on the backfield. They gave

635
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 2: them so many different weird looks that you can just

636
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 2: tell they've been saving those plays for months.

637
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,720
Speaker 1: He was in his bag, Kopiak was in his bag.

638
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 1: I thought one of the best parts of the broadcast

639
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: with Tom Brady on Sunday was how he explained that

640
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 1: it's not easy to cover the best receiver on the

641
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 1: other team. It's just as simple as all right, you're

642
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 1: going to put your best corner on their best receiver

643
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 1: and he's going to be covered all the time. Because

644
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 1: there were so many times when JSN was so wide open,

645
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 1: and obviously we talked about it on Sunday, like ten

646
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 1: for one fifty something and a touchdown. It seemed like

647
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 1: every time they needed to play, they found him. And

648
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 1: Brady pointed out number one, the way they're scheming him.

649
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 1: They're lining him up out wide, they're lining him up

650
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 1: in the backfield, they're lining him up in the slot.

651
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: You don't know where he's going to be, and you can't.

652
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 1: You can't put one guy on and play man on

653
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 1: one side and zone on the other. It confuses the

654
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 1: entire defense. And so they were able to scheme them open.

655
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 1: If they're going to scheme him up again like they got,

656
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 1: the Patriots have Christian Gonzales. He's a dominant cornerback, but

657
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 1: he's not always going to be on Jackson Smith and Jigba.

658
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 1: They're going to find ways to get him open couldn't

659
00:33:55,840 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 1: agree more that I it's a good segue to the

660
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 1: under because I do wonder will and we're seeing the

661
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 1: majority of the bats come in on the over and

662
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 1: this thing is ticked under. Will it be an overall

663
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:16,800
Speaker 1: conservative game plan. Mike McDonald's not gonna want Sam Donald

664
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:21,800
Speaker 1: to lose them the game. Drake May, Mike vrabel is

665
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 1: not going to want Drake May to lose him the game. Uh.

666
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 1: It feels like it could be one of those situations.

667
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 2: And we again, this is not the show on Chris Gonzales.

668
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:36,720
Speaker 2: He is not in the same league as Jays said, honestly,

669
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 2: Like when you break this down, Jason, if he wants

670
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 2: to get his he's going to get it against him.

671
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 2: And even breaking down watching who Chris Canals played against

672
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 2: this season, they have not faced anyone at this level

673
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 2: like they he never played, you know, or I guess

674
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 2: he did played against Chase which was with Flacco, but

675
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,320
Speaker 2: you know, it's like you just go through all the

676
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,840
Speaker 2: teams he faced this year and it's like, Okay, we

677
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 2: know Christian Zales is a good shutdown corner, but when

678
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 2: I look at this matchup, I'm just like, oh my god.

679
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 2: They don't. They don't have a true speedster that can

680
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 2: stay with Jasn and yeah, just like you, I love

681
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:17,359
Speaker 2: Brady Brady Man, he's just taking a net to another level.

682
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 1: He's been so good.

683
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:21,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's good. He was. He's breaking down with Jason

684
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 2: is so great where it's like he doesn't his shoulders

685
00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:27,280
Speaker 2: don't move when Yeah, which again is something I've always noticed,

686
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 2: but like, I love that he was breaking it down.

687
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 2: My favorite thing about Devanta Adams and Devote Adams, which

688
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 2: Jason took from Divide Adams Dean Damas doesn't flash his

689
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 2: hands and literally until the ball is there. Like he

690
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 2: never ever the dB never knows that a ball is

691
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 2: coming to Monty Adams Way because they always say his

692
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 2: eyes don't light up and he doesn't put his hands up.

693
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 2: You have no idea alson the ball is just there.

694
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 2: He just puts his hands up last second. Jayson does

695
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 2: the exact same thing. You watch him running his routes.

696
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 2: He's so cool, calm, all of a sudden he breaks out,

697
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 2: he turns, he just knows the balls and you're right

698
00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 2: there on him. So it's just another missman for the Seahawks,

699
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 2: which just I just don't see them be able to

700
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 2: slow him down, And yeah, like Chad suck. Though we

701
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 2: have we have, we have so many more days to

702
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 2: talk about this game. But people can already tell with

703
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 2: the way I'm going pretty heavy here with the Seahawks side.

704
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 2: I just I can't get over how bad this number is,

705
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 2: and just all the matchups in Yeah, the more numbers

706
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 2: I dive into, especially defensively, can Drake make take advantage

707
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 2: of the Seahawks defense the way that Stafford did? He can,

708
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 2: But my god, are those windows so tight. It's just

709
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 2: like Stafford really was playing with fire. And if you

710
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:39,280
Speaker 2: go through Stafford stats, his best games are always against

711
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 2: the Seahawks, Like he always plays really well against the Seahawks.

712
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,240
Speaker 2: What little data I have for Drake May Drake May's

713
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 2: worst games or against good defenses, Like he just simply

714
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 2: struggles against really good schemes. And you've seen that now

715
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 2: when the defenses are able to Skis, different schemes, give

716
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 2: him different blitz looks. He does struggle. Like we talk

717
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 2: all the time that that's a real thing. Right the playoffs,

718
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 2: it's so different. They know what your weakness is. Now

719
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 2: they're going to exploit it to the hundredth degree where

720
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 2: in the regular season. Yeah, team's trying to exploit it.

721
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 2: It's not the best defenses in football, and that's what

722
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:12,879
Speaker 2: he's about to get. He's about to get the best

723
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 2: defensive mind. Who I mean, I've talked about it. This

724
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 2: guy with extra time. We've seen this in his career.

725
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 2: McDonald's extra time has been dominant. He's been great when

726
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 2: he's had extra time prepared for certain teams. So I

727
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 2: really can't wait to see. It's like, it's really giving

728
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:31,360
Speaker 2: me young Belichick. Bill Belichick why he was so dominant.

729
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 2: Obviously he had Tom Brady in these Super Bowls, but

730
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 2: always the defense were so dombed because you just had

731
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 2: so much time. His worst super Bowl performance ever, Belichick,

732
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 2: Nick Foles, Right, and that was just because as much

733
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:46,400
Speaker 2: as you want to prepare for Nick Foles, it was

734
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 2: a total nominally right, the guy had the greatest game ever.

735
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 2: So can we get burned? Can Drake may have the

736
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:53,319
Speaker 2: greatest game every? Yet? That's why we love the Super

737
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:56,359
Speaker 2: Bowl These a legend can be born here. And you know,

738
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,400
Speaker 2: I'm sure we only have like ten Patriots fans, right,

739
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 2: They don't listen to these type of shows. They listen

740
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 2: to their own radio. That's what Patriots fans do. They

741
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 2: don't want to hear outside noise. They just want to

742
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 2: hear local radio and how great they are. But twenty

743
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 2: percent of all Super Bowls Chad have now had the

744
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,839
Speaker 2: Patriots in it, which is just insane. Why we hate

745
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 2: you as a fan base. You guys are spoiled, rotten,

746
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 2: and you're loud about it. So it's just when someone

747
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 2: put that stat up. Now, when you guys are in

748
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:24,360
Speaker 2: the super Bowl, it's now you're in twenty percent of

749
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:27,439
Speaker 2: all Super Bowls that ever existed. I just I hate

750
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 2: you guys so much, so I'm so happy. I really

751
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 2: hope I will switch to the Patriots. Right now, I'm

752
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 2: feeling pretty good dug In on the Seahawks side, so

753
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 2: I'm looking forward hearing Evan Abrams has to say, and

754
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,280
Speaker 2: I'm hoping all the trends back up what I'm feeling

755
00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 2: right now, which is this feels like a great spot

756
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:41,959
Speaker 2: for the Seahawks team.

757
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:47,720
Speaker 1: So, uh, you didn't answer my question about the under

758
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 1: and conservative game plans. Professionals are on the under right

759
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 1: now at open forty six and a half. It's down

760
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:55,439
Speaker 1: to forty six.

761
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:00,800
Speaker 2: I don't hate it. Like again, my biggest play is

762
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:04,320
Speaker 2: gonna be on the first quarter. But again, I'm probably

763
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:05,879
Speaker 2: just because I'm hyping up so much. I can get

764
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:07,439
Speaker 2: burned by it. But I just love that play. Every

765
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:10,280
Speaker 2: year I'll ask, I'll see if Evan has any stats

766
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 2: about the backup my my love for that first quarter under.

767
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:16,439
Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't hate that. I mean, my only

768
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 2: issue here is betting it right now is I can

769
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:22,319
Speaker 2: can I remember a playoff I've been burned more by

770
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 2: weather and how bad the weather has been predicted. It

771
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 2: is in an outdoor venue in Santa Clair like this

772
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 2: could easily be fifty degrees in raining that game day,

773
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 2: which will totally throw you for a loop, or could

774
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 2: be sixty five and sunny like we again, we have

775
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:40,799
Speaker 2: no idea. It's two weeks away, and it's in a

776
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 2: rare opportunity, right, It's an outdoor venue, which we don't

777
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 2: get much of when we talk Super Bowl. So yeah,

778
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,360
Speaker 2: if you want to hedge against the weather and that

779
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 2: with a professional, sure you could tick the under now.

780
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:54,359
Speaker 2: But I just don't want to get burned where it's

781
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 2: perfectly sunny days the pros come back the other way

782
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 2: and this is all we up to forty eight come

783
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 2: Sunday right like this could easy move by two two

784
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,279
Speaker 2: and a half points depending on whether and what the

785
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 2: professionals do here the next week. So yeah, if you

786
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:09,919
Speaker 2: have to make a bet right now, I'm with Chad.

787
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 2: If you're trying to make a better right now, take

788
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:14,399
Speaker 2: your position on the Seahawks if that's if you're trying

789
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 2: to get something in right now. But for me, I'm

790
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 2: going to be very patient with this game.

791
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 1: I bet the Seahawks minus three and a half. Immediately.

792
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:28,839
Speaker 1: I'm happy with that number. I didn't bet as much

793
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:34,040
Speaker 1: as I wish I had, Still, I wasn't. My initial

794
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: instincts on this were the Seahawks are just a much

795
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 1: better team, and they've proven to be a much better

796
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 1: team all year. I wish I had bet more on

797
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:46,239
Speaker 1: the Seahawks, although at four, if I can get it

798
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 1: at four, then you know I'm still not losing that

799
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:54,360
Speaker 1: much in terms of I'm putting myself up for a push.

800
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 1: But the other bet I made, I've made four bets

801
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 1: on this game. I bet the Seahawks minus three and

802
00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 1: a half. I bet darnold that some plus number that's

803
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:12,840
Speaker 1: come down to win MVP. I bet Rashid Shaheed to

804
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 1: win MVP because, look, if there's going to be a

805
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 1: long shot, I feel like special teams has been a

806
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:22,360
Speaker 1: factor for the Seahawks all season long. We've talked about

807
00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:26,800
Speaker 1: their special teams being great, and we've seen Shaheed make huge,

808
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 1: huge plays and we've seen like in games like this,

809
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 1: if special teamers score a touchdown, very often they end

810
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 1: up being in the MVP. And so he's been a

811
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 1: narrative and this is a narrative award and people have

812
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:42,840
Speaker 1: liked to give him credit. You get him in a

813
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:44,879
Speaker 1: couple of different spots making a big play and he's

814
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:47,840
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you know, in the conversation. And

815
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:53,360
Speaker 1: then I also bet Kenneth Walker over twenty and a

816
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 1: half receiving yards because we've seen, like week after week

817
00:41:57,160 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 1: he's getting more and more involved in the in their

818
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:04,319
Speaker 1: past game, especially as teams are starting to bring a

819
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:07,800
Speaker 1: lot more pressure against Arnold because he's been so sort

820
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:09,920
Speaker 1: of loose with the football and they're doing a lot

821
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:13,080
Speaker 1: more checking down offensively. So those are the four bets

822
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 1: I made so far in this game.

823
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 2: Chad is the greatest, better alive there we go know,

824
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 2: you need.

825
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 1: I just needed that, just a little bit of something,

826
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 1: you know what I mean, just a little taste of that.

827
00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:29,880
Speaker 1: So here's a stat I looked this up this morning

828
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,400
Speaker 1: because you know, we've always loved betting Mike Vrabel, and

829
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:36,359
Speaker 1: we have loved betting Mike Vrabel as a dog. Mike

830
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 1: Rabel before this season as a dog of three points

831
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:42,880
Speaker 1: or more in his career with the Tennessee Titans was

832
00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 1: twenty one and fourteen. Mike Rabel this year as a

833
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 1: dog of three points or more was two and o,

834
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 1: with outright wins against the Bills and against the Ravens.

835
00:42:56,800 --> 00:43:00,120
Speaker 1: For all the Seahawks love, the thing that scares me

836
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 1: most about betting the Seahawks is Mike Vrabel, because the

837
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 1: guy manages the game so well. He never seems to

838
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:11,800
Speaker 1: make the wrong decision. He never seems to be flummixed

839
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 1: in any scenario, down to how he manages substitutions within

840
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 1: the play clock winding down, how he manages fourth and

841
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 1: goal situations at the end of the half. We've seen

842
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 1: him do this like he's just such a good situational coach.

843
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:35,840
Speaker 1: You got to earn it as a favorite against Mike Vrabel.

844
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:41,600
Speaker 2: He's a great coach. I just think he's he's he's

845
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:44,280
Speaker 2: taking this broken down car as far as it can Goach.

846
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 2: That's my view of him right now, where he's like

847
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:49,239
Speaker 2: he's that great, he fixed it, he got it over

848
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 2: that hill. But my god, is it about the Fuali

849
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 2: fight absolute cliff again. You never know, it's a super

850
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 2: Bowl anything that happen. It's just really more I dive

851
00:43:57,239 --> 00:43:59,320
Speaker 2: into the matchup. I get how good of a coach is.

852
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 2: It's just this just feels like such an overwhelmingly bad

853
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:05,359
Speaker 2: spot for them in the sense that the Sea Owks

854
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 2: team just feels so much better. Like just across the

855
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:09,719
Speaker 2: board where the Patriots we've talked about it, I just

856
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:12,319
Speaker 2: feel like they're two years early right, like they're just

857
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:15,279
Speaker 2: it does feel like they got here earlier. Now when

858
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:17,439
Speaker 2: I really look at the teams, like now they belong here.

859
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:20,359
Speaker 2: They're just such a great team. So I'm with you,

860
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:22,360
Speaker 2: like it's never fun to get But against Rabel, I

861
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 2: mean I didn't literally did not sleep Saturday night because

862
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 2: I had so much money going against Rabel And it's like,

863
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 2: what am I doing? Why am I putting so much

864
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 2: money in a backup quarterback in the playoffs? But yeah,

865
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:33,879
Speaker 2: I feel like any no matter what, it's never fun

866
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 2: been against Rabel, but here at a bad when he's

867
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 2: got a bad number on his side, he's a little overrated.

868
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:42,160
Speaker 2: In my mind, it's a little peak value for Rabel

869
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 2: in this Patriots team. So that's that's gonna be a

870
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 2: peace of mind here where it's it's just not a

871
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 2: good number.

872
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 1: That is like it's like saying you don't ever want

873
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:54,560
Speaker 1: to bet the Carolina Panthers on this show. So making

874
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 1: disparaging marks about Mike Rabel peak Mike Frabel. I never

875
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 1: thought i'd here to say that. The other props that

876
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 1: are going to be in the contest this week, in

877
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 1: addition to the sides and the totals, the first half line,

878
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:10,360
Speaker 1: first half total. We'll talk more about these as we

879
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 1: get closer to the contest on before the game, the

880
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:18,360
Speaker 1: Jackson Smith and Jigua total touchdowns over under a half,

881
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold passion touchdowns over under one and a half,

882
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 1: Drake may total completions over under nineteen and a half,

883
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 1: and then Remandre Stevenson total rushing yards over under fifty

884
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:32,839
Speaker 1: three and a half. That's already coming down like that's

885
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 1: been getting hit really really hard by professional better. So

886
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:39,400
Speaker 1: I think it's open to fifty six, and in a

887
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:41,919
Speaker 1: lot of playces it's already closer to fifty.

888
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 2: So that moving the contest or it just stays as

889
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:45,800
Speaker 2: is good question.

890
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 1: I feel like it's going to be static, but Matt

891
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 1: Mitchell will have to answer that for stay static static. Wow,

892
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 1: I think we think we know what we're doing already

893
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:58,479
Speaker 1: with that one. Listen. At the top of the show,

894
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 1: we discussed how both of these Super Bowl teams were

895
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,759
Speaker 1: preseason long shots. Related to that, we got a very

896
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 1: nice message from a long time listener, Bryce from Phoenix

897
00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:15,359
Speaker 1: wrote to say, Hey, guys, love the show. I've been

898
00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 1: listening since the beginning. Just want to give out a shot.

899
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 1: Give a shout out to Chad and Simon. One piece

900
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:25,800
Speaker 1: of advice that has always stuck was to take early

901
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 1: flyers on Super Bowl and Division long shots, especially on

902
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:33,400
Speaker 1: teams that had bad luck the previous season and are

903
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:36,440
Speaker 1: going into the next season with cap space and good

904
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:41,359
Speaker 1: coaching QB combos. That resulted in me having both a

905
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 1: sixty five to one ticket that's alive in the Seahawks

906
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 1: and a one hundred and twenty to one ticket that's

907
00:46:47,080 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 1: alive in the Patriots. Never been more excited to sit

908
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:54,000
Speaker 1: back and watch a game knowing that my bank role

909
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:56,640
Speaker 1: was going to bloo by sixty or one hundred plus

910
00:46:56,760 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 1: units no matter what happens. And he did attaches tickets.

911
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 1: He's got fifty bucks to win thirty two hundred on

912
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 1: Seattle and one hundred to win twelve thousand on New England.

913
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:12,320
Speaker 1: Good for Bryce, Thanks for the message. Bryce has a

914
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 1: quick question for us, which we'll discuss after a quick

915
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 1: word about our new sponsor, z Biotics, alongside our producer

916
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:29,840
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. Gentlemen, only one game left this football season.

917
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,040
Speaker 1: I know we're all going to be having a great

918
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 1: time watching the big game with our friends and family,

919
00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:42,360
Speaker 1: making beds, pouring drinks. Despite all of our incredible good looks,

920
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:46,640
Speaker 1: we just don't bounce back like we used to. And

921
00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:50,239
Speaker 1: I'm a huge morning guy. Sometimes we've had to choose

922
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 1: between a great night or a great next day. That

923
00:47:54,440 --> 00:48:00,080
Speaker 1: was before we tried pre alcohol z Biotics. Pre the

924
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:06,320
Speaker 1: Alcohol Probiotic Drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic,

925
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:12,160
Speaker 1: invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking.

926
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 1: Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted

927
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:20,600
Speaker 1: into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a build

928
00:48:20,680 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 1: up of this byproduct, not dehydration that's to blame for

929
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:29,640
Speaker 1: rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces an enzyme to

930
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 1: break down this product. Just remember to make pre alcohol

931
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:38,840
Speaker 1: your first drink of the night. Drink responsibly and you'll

932
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 1: feel your best tomorrow. Matt Mitchell, you enjoyed your experience

933
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 1: on Sunday night right.

934
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:46,640
Speaker 2: I sure did.

935
00:48:47,360 --> 00:48:50,720
Speaker 3: Bills not playing so I was able to have a lovely,

936
00:48:50,880 --> 00:48:55,400
Speaker 3: relaxed NFL Sunday with my friends and family and neighbors

937
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:58,760
Speaker 3: over enjoying it here in Wisconsin, the heaviest drinking state

938
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:02,719
Speaker 3: in the Union. Biolog I love that it comes in

939
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 3: this little fancy package. I thought they'd be like packets,

940
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:08,400
Speaker 3: but like now they come in this little package and

941
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 3: they're not. They're not packets. They're these fancy little glass vials.

942
00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 3: Shot one down an hour before I started drinking. Enjoyed myself,

943
00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:23,360
Speaker 3: had a great time, slept all night the dreamless sleep

944
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 3: of a Bills fan, and Ben woke up felt great,

945
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 3: made pancakes, talked to my dad. Really had like a

946
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 3: surprisingly lovely, cheery morning despite it being negative one billion

947
00:49:35,080 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 3: degrees outside. So I loved it. I will definitely be

948
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:41,800
Speaker 3: making it part of my kind of drinking routine moving forward.

949
00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:46,759
Speaker 1: Enjoy the biggest games of the season without sacrificing an

950
00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:49,719
Speaker 1: incredible next day. That's what Matt Mitchell did. Start your

951
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:54,400
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952
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Speaker 1: and better than ever. Go to zbiotics dot com slash

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Speaker 1: sharper square at checkout for fifteen percent off. All right,

959
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 1: here's the question from Bryce in Phoenix. A couple of

960
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:29,320
Speaker 1: books have already posted odds for next year's Super Bowl.

961
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:34,359
Speaker 1: Thoughts on Saints hundred to one, Giants ninety to one,

962
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:39,879
Speaker 1: twenty one, Dolphins two hundred to one. Simon, I don't

963
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:43,200
Speaker 1: think any of those teams have the coach QB combo

964
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:45,960
Speaker 1: that would make us feel as good as Mike McDonald,

965
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:50,920
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold or Bryce or Mike Frabel and Drake May.

966
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:54,320
Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't know you could. You could lie to

967
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 2: something and say, well, I like Sala, I like cam Ward,

968
00:50:58,880 --> 00:51:02,239
Speaker 2: but I I'm banned for talking Tennessee Titans, so I'm

969
00:51:02,239 --> 00:51:06,759
Speaker 2: gonna keep keep that band going Giants. I guess you

970
00:51:06,800 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 2: could lie to yourself. It'd be like, well, it's your

971
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:11,320
Speaker 2: two of Dart if you get the right coach and

972
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:13,719
Speaker 2: hardball in the right o C and they take Dart

973
00:51:13,760 --> 00:51:16,440
Speaker 2: to the next level. We've seen it with Drake mayor

974
00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:18,359
Speaker 2: right that year too, Jump we talk about all the time,

975
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 2: like it just it happens NFL, whatever it may be,

976
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:23,799
Speaker 2: it just continually happens where you have this random year

977
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:27,040
Speaker 2: two guy either mix an MVP run or Super Bowl run.

978
00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:32,520
Speaker 2: It just consistently happens in the league. For me, if

979
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:37,239
Speaker 2: I'm looking at you know, crazy long shots, I know

980
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 2: people are gonna hate it. They don't have a coach yet.

981
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 2: Cleveland Browns are one hundred and thirty to one. Now

982
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 2: hear me out, Okay, if they get the creep himself back,

983
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:53,319
Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson, We've seen it. I know it's been ten

984
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:57,720
Speaker 2: years or whatever, three years, but We've seen him play

985
00:51:57,760 --> 00:52:00,800
Speaker 2: well enough and make a team, take a team to

986
00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 2: the Super and not to Super Bowl, to the playoffs,

987
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:05,680
Speaker 2: and win a playoff game. And at those odds, I'm

988
00:52:05,719 --> 00:52:07,960
Speaker 2: looking at all these other quarterbacks he's bunched in there with.

989
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:11,240
Speaker 2: I mean, he has the same odds as Vegas. Vegas

990
00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:13,719
Speaker 2: doesn't even have Mendozi at or or a head coach.

991
00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying. It's like, I get it. I

992
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 2: don't love Cleveland either, but if they do promote Jim

993
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:23,120
Speaker 2: Schwartz with that defense and they just have a top

994
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:26,440
Speaker 2: fifteen quarterback, that's all they need, that's all that's missing

995
00:52:26,440 --> 00:52:30,040
Speaker 2: for Cleveland, it could work. That's that to me, is

996
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 2: the only long shot I will bet on, just because

997
00:52:32,400 --> 00:52:34,719
Speaker 2: I have all these guys clustered together. That's the one

998
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:38,240
Speaker 2: team I can trust. And you know, saying to myself,

999
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:43,720
Speaker 2: well that that makes sense. They're those odds. The weirdest

1000
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:46,400
Speaker 2: one to me is the Chiefs. I know it's Mahomes

1001
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:50,479
Speaker 2: come off an injury, but they're fifteen to one right now,

1002
00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:54,880
Speaker 2: fifteen to one the Chiefs. That that does feel like

1003
00:52:55,040 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 2: an overreaction a little bit. Again, it's a lot of

1004
00:52:57,080 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 2: unknown because of Mahomes injury.

1005
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:01,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, but that's what I said it at the beginning

1006
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 1: of the show. I feel you're gonna get value on it.

1007
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:05,319
Speaker 2: I'm just shocked that I thought it was gonna like

1008
00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:10,360
Speaker 2: ten to one, fifteen to one. It feels a bit egregious.

1009
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:14,239
Speaker 2: And if we're doing one last long shot, I can't

1010
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:17,919
Speaker 2: quit him. I really can't. Baker is forty to one

1011
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:21,279
Speaker 2: right now, forty to one for Super Bowl, and it's like,

1012
00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:24,000
Speaker 2: I get it. I think we're all a little burned

1013
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:25,600
Speaker 2: down on him, but I just really thought he was

1014
00:53:25,640 --> 00:53:27,839
Speaker 2: playing hurt that whole second half and he just never

1015
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:30,720
Speaker 2: was the same, And it's like, you know, that offense,

1016
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:32,839
Speaker 2: if they can just get it right defensively, I think

1017
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:36,120
Speaker 2: that that Tampa team could be legit, especially the fact

1018
00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:37,759
Speaker 2: they didn't win the division, so they're gonna have a

1019
00:53:37,880 --> 00:53:42,400
Speaker 2: much easier schedule obviously next year. So just yeah, blindly

1020
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:46,120
Speaker 2: betting right now, Chie's fifteen to one, Bucks forty to one,

1021
00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:48,960
Speaker 2: and the Cleveland Browns one hundred and thirty to one.

1022
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:50,680
Speaker 2: That was my favorite three.

1023
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 1: I feel like you're completely ignoring the fact that the

1024
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:57,680
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns have a Pro Bowl quarterback and Shuldar Sanders

1025
00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:02,000
Speaker 1: and you're just immediately skipping over him going to Deshaun Watson.

1026
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:11,279
Speaker 1: It's just straight disrespect, Simon ra respect. But why this

1027
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 1: has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast Network.

1028
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:17,960
Speaker 1: We will be back on Thursday to talk more Super

1029
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:20,960
Speaker 1: Bowl and Super Bowl trends with our buddy Evan Abrams.

1030
00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:24,440
Speaker 1: Watch or listen on YouTube a Sharper Square like the video,

1031
00:54:24,440 --> 00:54:27,160
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the channel, Download us on Spotify, Apple Pods,

1032
00:54:27,160 --> 00:54:29,319
Speaker 1: wherever you get your POD's rate review, subscribe, leave us

1033
00:54:29,320 --> 00:54:32,239
Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift

1034
00:54:32,280 --> 00:54:34,239
Speaker 1: until next time, Love you.

1035
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 2: The two conference champels must survive a harrowing ye that

1036
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:40,719
Speaker 2: no one enjoys.

1037
00:54:45,360 --> 00:54:48,719
Speaker 1: Five weeks Bronco Negersey didn't get no bye weeks and

1038
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:51,880
Speaker 1: now he's dead. Well, maybe they were a good thing.