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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're running a game.

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Speaker 2: So smooth, so sweet, splendid sisting just glorious extrocution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent.

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Speaker 1: Of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop with mind, buddy, and that's

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Speaker 2: why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 4: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picts them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The one it's left too, the wide eyed drill bibus

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Speaker 2: how old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 3: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wondergulf, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 3: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leebuff and

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Speaker 3: joining me today for a very special North London Derby

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Speaker 3: edition of the podcast are my friends and Action colleagues

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Speaker 3: BJ Cunningham and Arsenal Tragic coming to you out of Iowa,

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Speaker 3: and Anthony Dubundo Tottenham Do or Dire coming from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna just turn it over to you Anthony to start,

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Speaker 3: because we're starting with North London Derby to Sunday eleven

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Speaker 3: thirty am kickup, and since Spurs are home, I'll let

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Speaker 3: you go first, tottenhams plus one fifty on the money line,

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Speaker 3: Arsenal plus one ninety five that draw us plus two

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Speaker 3: thirty take it away.

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Speaker 5: So bij and I have at least partial agreement on

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Speaker 5: what we think is going to happen in this game

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Speaker 5: on Sunday. Tottenham comes into this game off of back

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Speaker 5: to back losses in the League Cup, the Caraveo Cup

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Speaker 5: semi final to Chelsea. They did have a come from

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Speaker 5: behind win against Morecambe in the in the FA Cup,

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Speaker 5: so they've They've had some cup matches and they're starting

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Speaker 5: to be some cracks within the squad depth and with

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Speaker 5: injuries being a bit of an issue for this match,

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Speaker 5: looks like home and Son is going to be out

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Speaker 5: for Spurs, so that there are some issues for Tottenham

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Speaker 5: in attack.

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Speaker 4: But we still have to go and look at the aggregate.

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Speaker 5: Since Antonio Conte took over as Tottenham manager back in

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Speaker 5: early November. Since then, Spurs one point nine expected goals

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Speaker 5: for per ninety that is the third best in the league.

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Speaker 5: Arsenal in that same time frame. Since Martinelli has been

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Speaker 5: put in the squad, since Soccer has started to improve

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Speaker 5: his numbers this year one point eight to nine expected

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Speaker 5: goals per ninety that is the fourth best, right behind Tottenham,

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Speaker 5: and only Liverpool and City have better numbers in that timeframe.

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Speaker 5: So we're dealing with two teams who are playing at

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Speaker 5: a much higher level than they were earlier in the year.

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Speaker 5: Yet the market isn't all that different from what the

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Speaker 5: line was in the first match once you vector in

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Speaker 5: home field. Arsenal was a slight home favorite in the

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Speaker 5: first match. Now Tottenham is.

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Speaker 4: The slight home favorite at home.

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Speaker 5: The one thing here that concerns me with Arsenal is

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Speaker 5: their defense has been great at home. When they've gone

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Speaker 5: on the road that has not held up one point

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Speaker 5: six expected goals allowed to leads. There was one plus

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Speaker 5: two controversial bar decisions against Everton. They allowed four expected

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Speaker 5: goals to Liverpool and then one point nine to Manchester United.

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Speaker 5: There was a penalty in there as well, so they're

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Speaker 5: conceitding one point six expected goals per ninety away from

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Speaker 5: home that is seventh worst in the league. And in

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Speaker 5: terms of attack, they're running about five goals ahead of

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Speaker 5: their expected goal difference.

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Speaker 4: Spurs are running five goals behind.

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Speaker 5: So Tottenham has had a lot of big misses big

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Speaker 5: scoring chances that they haven't finished off, especially Harry Kane.

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Speaker 5: You expect regression there and Arsenal, as good as they've

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Speaker 5: been in the last two months, has not been as

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Speaker 5: good as maybe the narrative is starting to get on

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Speaker 5: them beating up on some of the bad teams in

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Speaker 5: this league. So I'm actually going to play both Spurs

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Speaker 5: drawn no bet at minus one twenty and the over

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Speaker 5: two and a half goals at minus one ten. I believe,

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Speaker 5: and I'm going to play both of those because I

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Speaker 5: think Arsenal is vulnerable in a couple of areas, but

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Speaker 5: the main one is up the wings, where I think

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Speaker 5: Spurs in their back three are going to be able

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Speaker 5: to exploit Arsenal and catch them out a little bit here.

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Speaker 4: Tierney likes to get forward quite a bit.

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Speaker 5: I think over the top to Lucas Mora will be

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Speaker 5: an opening and the fullbacks effect of getting forward as well.

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Speaker 5: I think Spurs be able to attack there, Whereas I

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Speaker 5: think Arsenal probably controls most of the midfield in this match,

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Speaker 5: I don't think that they're going to be able to

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Speaker 5: create a lot of big scoring chances. Spurs the number

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Speaker 5: one improvement we've seen with them since Conte has arrived. Defensively,

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Speaker 5: there's still some cracks. They're still allowing shots, but they've

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Speaker 5: actually cut down on the big scoring chances allowed of late,

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Speaker 5: and I think that's going to be important here in

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Speaker 5: a match that I think ends to one to Spurs Arsenal.

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Speaker 3: Sitting at thirty five points Spurs thirty three, with two

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Speaker 3: games at hands for the race for fourth place. There's

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Speaker 3: a couple of things I want to just touch on narratively,

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Speaker 3: not just about this game, but also the weekend, Like

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Speaker 3: it feels so nice to have what looks like it's

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Speaker 3: going to be a full slate of games, but it

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Speaker 3: also feels really nice to have a North London Derby

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Speaker 3: with some real jeopardy to it. You know, this is

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Speaker 3: a huge game for both of these teams in the

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Speaker 3: race for fourth place, and I think you can kind

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Speaker 3: of play some of that into your handicap because I

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Speaker 3: trust Tottenham more in this spot than I think I

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Speaker 3: would trust Arsenal. We've seen Arsenal be overmatched by better

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Speaker 3: teams and the Spurs improvement throw out the two EFL

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Speaker 3: Cup games under Conte, it does look legitimate to me.

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Speaker 3: We're now talking about eight games. Sample size so still

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Speaker 3: not big, but nearly half a season, and the expectacle

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Speaker 3: differential is plus twelve. You know, if it doesn't expect

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Speaker 3: goals to the good in eight games, that's pretty good.

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Speaker 3: Five of those games are clean sheets. So I'm going

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Speaker 3: to be with Anthony on Tottenham BJ. I'm sorry to

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Speaker 3: say it, but before you talk about your bet, what

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Speaker 3: is Arsenal's path to success? Here? Like, if you are

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Speaker 3: betting Arsenal, if you're an Arsenal fan and you want

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Speaker 3: to get down on the gunners, what is the path

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Speaker 3: to success for them?

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Speaker 1: Well, the path is success. It's kind of twofold. It's one.

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Speaker 2: The back line has to hold up, they have to

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Speaker 2: play an unbelievable game. Aaron Ramsell is probably not have

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Speaker 2: to stand on his head because I kind of disagree

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Speaker 2: with Anthony that I don't think Arsenal is really going

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Speaker 2: to win this game. In the midfield because they're so

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Speaker 2: shorthanded right now. Thomas Party is at after Coup Nations Almeni,

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Speaker 2: who's been a backup most season as after Cup Nations

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Speaker 2: Grant Shaka is injured, so that basically just leaves a

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Speaker 2: conga in the midfield. So that means that that Odegard

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Speaker 2: is probably going to have to move back and Arteta

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Speaker 2: might switch up the formation and go to a four

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Speaker 2: to four to two or four to four one one

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Speaker 2: like he's done a couple of times, and I think

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Speaker 2: that's probably what he's going to have to do for

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Speaker 2: this match to hold off the Tottenham attack. Arsenal offensively

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Speaker 2: has been improving a ton, and I agree they have

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Speaker 2: played somewhat of an easy schedule, but since the four

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Speaker 2: to ah lost to Liverpool in late November, like Anthony mentioned,

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Speaker 2: Arsenal has averaged around one point nine expected goals per

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Speaker 2: match and the reason for that, I think is twofold. First,

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Speaker 2: the emergence of Gabrielle Martinelli has provided another goal scoring

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Speaker 2: threat on the left wing, something that Nicholas Pepe hasn't been.

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Speaker 1: Able to provide.

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Speaker 2: Martinelli has four goals in his last eight appearances, with

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Speaker 2: a point four to six expected goal per ninety minute

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Speaker 2: scoring rate that's really really good for a winger. And

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Speaker 2: then secondly, Martin Odegard has turned into one of the

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Speaker 2: best attacking midfielders and suppliers in the Premier League. In

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Speaker 2: his last eight matches, he has thirty four shot creating

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Speaker 2: actions thirty eight progressive passes and seventeen passes complete in

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Speaker 2: the penaltaria that's the most in the Premier League that

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Speaker 2: time span. So with him supplying the attack, Tottenham potentially

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Speaker 2: going to be without Eric Dyer for this one, so

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Speaker 2: that leaves them a little bit vulnerable at the back.

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Speaker 2: I agree with Anthony on the over that I think

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Speaker 2: that this is a little too low for the odds.

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Speaker 2: You know, the over two and a half is that

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Speaker 2: even money?

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Speaker 1: Right now?

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Speaker 2: I have two point eighty five goals projected for this one,

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Speaker 2: so basically, since Conte took over, you have the third

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Speaker 2: and fourth best offenses versus you know, an Arsenal midfield

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Speaker 2: that's going to be depleted potentially a Tottenham defense that

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Speaker 2: is that gonna be without Eric Dyer.

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Speaker 1: I think this has.

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Speaker 2: Overwritten all over it. But what I will say is

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Speaker 2: that if I was an unbiased person, this is what

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Speaker 2: I would say. I would say that I have projected

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Speaker 2: value on Tottenham, that I think they're a little underpriced

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Speaker 2: even with Sawn out, and that if I wasn't an

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Speaker 2: Arsenal fan, maybe I would bet on Tottenham.

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Speaker 1: John no Bett at minus one twenty.

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Speaker 2: But there are certain times as a fan where your

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Speaker 2: wallet matters more than your team, and there are other

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Speaker 2: times where your team matters more than your wallet.

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Speaker 1: This is a certain time.

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Speaker 2: This is as big as stakes as I in the

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Speaker 2: last I don't know two to three years of a

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Speaker 2: North London derby, so my team matters more than my

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Speaker 2: wall in this one. So I'm with Anthony on over

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Speaker 2: two and a half goals even money, but I will

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Speaker 2: be passing on betting on either team in this one.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, we talked about the stakes right right now.

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Speaker 5: Projected top four odds Arsenal thirty eight percent, Spurs thirty

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Speaker 5: one percent. Projected to finish within one point of each other.

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Speaker 5: Based on the five thirty eight projections, my own power

187
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Speaker 5: ratings have them as the fourth and the fifth best

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Speaker 5: team now, ahead of Manchester United. I'm pretty confident that

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Speaker 5: one of those three will be the top four, and

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Speaker 5: I think the winner of this match becomes the favorite

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Speaker 5: if there is a winner. If not, I'd probably lean

192
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Speaker 5: towards Spurs because of those games in hand. But I

193
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Speaker 5: think the one interesting thing, and we've talked about this

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Speaker 5: on the pod before, is Arsenal and their lack of pressing. Well,

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Speaker 5: it's improved quite a bit in the last month or two,

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Speaker 5: and a lot of that is Martinelli, who does a

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Speaker 5: lot of pressing from the front. The beginning of the season,

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Speaker 5: first ten matches under Arteta, fifteen point seven to two

199
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Speaker 5: passes per defensive action. That was the worst in the league.

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Speaker 5: Since then, they're up to eleven point four to nine.

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Speaker 5: That's the twelfth highest, So not great, but certainly better.

202
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Speaker 5: And another interesting thing here in terms of opponents passes

203
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Speaker 5: per defensive action, that number has gone up so Arsenal's

204
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Speaker 5: had more control of the game. They played with the

205
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Speaker 5: ball even more, and they've been able to kind of

206
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Speaker 5: withstand opponents trying to win the ball off them better

207
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Speaker 5: and that all projects well out in the long term.

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Speaker 5: Although in this game, I think it's going to be

209
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Speaker 5: very interesting that you mentioned the midfield battle. We don't

210
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Speaker 5: know Jhaka's status. Spurs have a bit of a midfield

211
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Speaker 5: issue themselves in the sense that in Dumbla is out

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Speaker 5: of favor right now, could be Joyvier and Skip. I

213
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Speaker 5: think that's what it's going to be. Could see some winks.

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Speaker 5: None of those guys are really progressive passers necessarily, and

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Speaker 5: so I think that makes for a really interesting situation

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Speaker 5: if Spurs attempt to bypass the midfield like they did

217
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Speaker 5: against Liverpool and really just get it into their best players.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and so for you know, the narrative about Arsenal

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Speaker 2: and that you know playing well against the bigger sides.

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Speaker 2: They were the better side against Manchester City for the

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Speaker 2: first hour of that match. They only allowed point five

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Speaker 2: to four expected goals to City in the first sixty

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Speaker 2: minutes and then of course Stuart Atwell had to give

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Speaker 2: a fantom penalty and a bull crap red card and

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Speaker 2: the whole match you know, want to shit. But Tottenham

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Speaker 2: does have City and Chelsea on deck in the next

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Speaker 2: month or so with two games in hand. If Arsenal

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Speaker 2: can win this get three points, they can take a

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Speaker 2: five point lead. Essentially, tottam still would have two games

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Speaker 2: in hand, but they do have that tough schedule coming up.

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Speaker 2: So this is huge for both teams obviously, because if

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Speaker 2: Tottenham can get this one allows them more breathing room

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Speaker 2: against Chelsea and City. But if Arsenal wins this one,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna put a lot of pressure on Tottenham to

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Speaker 2: get up in that top four spot.

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Speaker 3: All right. I think we covered the North London Derby

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Speaker 3: enough there So we'll move on to another derby, an

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Speaker 3: interesting one. Brighton plus one ten against Crystal Palace plus

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Speaker 3: two ninety five the draws plus two twenty five. This

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Speaker 3: is a Friday three pm kickoff Friday night lights in

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Speaker 3: the Premier League. Incredible story. So yeah, these two teams,

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Speaker 3: this is a legitimate rivalry. For a while, Crystal Palace

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Speaker 3: was the closest team in the EFL or the FA

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Speaker 3: back then, I guess, the closest team to Brighton. But

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Speaker 3: this rivalry really hit a crescendo back in I believe

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Speaker 3: it was two thousand and ten, maybe a little later

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Speaker 3: than that, when they were playing in a playoff to

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Speaker 3: be promoted out of the championship. And in the second

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Speaker 3: leg of that playoff, Crystal Palace traveled to Brighton and

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Speaker 3: while the game was going on, the Crystal Palace bus

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Speaker 3: driver took a dump all over the Brighton locker room.

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Speaker 3: It smeared it everywhere. He actually did that. So that

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Speaker 3: is a true story. And we'll set up a which

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Speaker 3: should be a good game between two really good teams

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Speaker 3: that don't like each other. Brighton's plus one ten at

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Speaker 3: home Palace plus two ninety five the dress plus two

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Speaker 3: twenty five. The over under here set a two point

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Speaker 3: twenty five, so it's a low total Palace defense fifth

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Speaker 3: and non penalty expected goals allowed thirdy big chances allowed,

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Speaker 3: Brighton sixth in non penalty expected goals allowed second and

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Speaker 3: big chances allowed. I think you can tell where I'm

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Speaker 3: going with this one. I really like to draw at

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Speaker 3: plus two to twenty five in a game where I

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Speaker 3: think you're going to see two teams just strength on strength,

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Speaker 3: defense on defense. Neither team has, you know, all that

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Speaker 3: much teeth to their offense, so not a worry there

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Speaker 3: that I don't think either one is going to be

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Speaker 3: able to really separate themselves. I don't think the games

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Speaker 3: can get out of hand, so the draw should always

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Speaker 3: be in play. So yeah, give me the draw here

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Speaker 3: plus two twenty five in this bizarre rivalry, bja, you

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Speaker 3: got anything for Brighton.

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Speaker 1: Palas I have a couple of live scenarios.

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Speaker 2: But if we go back to when these teams first met,

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Speaker 2: if you remember Neil Mape scored a ninety fifth minute

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Speaker 2: chip over the keeper and then taunted the Crystal Palace crowd,

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Speaker 2: and they've got a little dangerous for a little bit

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Speaker 2: with the fans you know, potentially almost like storming the

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Speaker 2: field throwing things at the Brighton team. So this is

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Speaker 2: a real rival. And I did not know that story

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Speaker 2: about the bus driver, but that is hilarious from a

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Speaker 2: live scenario. Crystal Palace is one of the biggest discrepancies

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Speaker 2: between first half and second half performances. In the first

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Speaker 2: half this season they have a minus two point four

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Speaker 2: expected gold differential, but in the second half they have

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Speaker 2: a plus seven point three expected goldfferential. Well, Brighton is

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Speaker 2: around even in terms of expected gold differential in the

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Speaker 2: second half, so you could potentially wait and if Brighton

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Speaker 2: scores first, you can potentially maybe get Crystal Palace at

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Speaker 2: a decent number plus half a goal or to at

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Speaker 2: least get a draw because they do have a positive

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Speaker 2: expected gold differential when playing from behind. The season, I

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Speaker 2: was looking at a both team to score no at

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Speaker 2: minus one ten. But Brighton is without Pasuma who's at

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Speaker 2: the Africa Coup of Nations. It looks like in Waypo

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Speaker 2: is also going to be out and that's those two

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Speaker 2: are very vital for Brighton's pressing, especially against a Crystal

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Speaker 2: Palace offense that's fifteenth in offensive pass per defensive action

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Speaker 2: so I'll.

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Speaker 1: Be staying away from this.

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Speaker 2: One might get on Crystal Palace Live the scenario comes up,

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Speaker 2: but other than that, staying away from this rivalry.

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Speaker 5: The Brighton story this year is just fascinating and it's

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Speaker 5: been a thing for a couple of years now. But

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Speaker 5: how bad they are as favorites when they have to

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Speaker 5: get margin, and how good they are as underdogs when

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Speaker 5: teams have to try to beat them, And it's really

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Speaker 5: been an ongoing story. I mean, you look at their

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Speaker 5: last handful of games. They play Chelsea, outplay them from

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Speaker 5: the large stretches of that match, get a tie. They

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Speaker 5: outplay Everton for large stretches of that match, but still

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Speaker 5: barely hold on late as an underdog, but they do

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Speaker 5: get to win. When they play west Ham as an underdog,

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Speaker 5: they get a late goal and they keep it competitive.

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Speaker 1: The entire match.

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Speaker 5: But when they go play leads where they're a favorite,

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Speaker 5: they create two point unexpected goals, can't find the winning goal,

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Speaker 5: cannot finish and we're in a similar spot here, I

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Speaker 5: think Palace you mentioned it revenge spot, one of the

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Speaker 5: bigger revenge spots of the year. Your biggest rival in

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Speaker 5: the m twenty three Derby Nander to the highway that

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Speaker 5: connects South London to the South coast, scores a goal

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Speaker 5: that was completely undeserved.

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Speaker 4: I know, we all I think.

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Speaker 5: I know I had Brighton and Salvage to push there

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Speaker 5: completely undeserved, and then you're throwing the taunting with the

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Speaker 5: fans and everything. This is a highly spirited affair for sure.

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Speaker 5: But really Palace played well in their last game against

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Speaker 5: West Ham. They won the XG battle two point two

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Speaker 5: to one point two. When you take out the very

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Speaker 5: controversial penalty that was awarded to the Hammers in that

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Speaker 5: game that I did not think was a penalty. I

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Speaker 5: thought it was a harsh decision, classic var handball that

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Speaker 5: didn't really.

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Speaker 4: Impact the game.

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Speaker 5: They also hit the post and the bar Palace did

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Speaker 5: in that game, so they easily could have won it

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Speaker 5: and nearly did steal a point late after coming from

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Speaker 5: three to zero down. And really they're the unluckiest team

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Speaker 5: in the league when you compare their expected goal difference

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Speaker 5: to their actual goal difference and their positioning the table.

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Speaker 4: So if you look at the number, it's not quite there.

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Speaker 5: For me to play it, I would need minus one

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Speaker 5: fifteen on plus a half to get in on Palace,

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Speaker 5: but I'll be watching because, like you mentioned, m Waypu

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Speaker 5: and Besuma may both be out. That really hurts this midfield.

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Speaker 5: And I think Palace will happily give the ball to Brighton,

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Speaker 5: but I don't know that they'll be able to be

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Speaker 5: able to necessarily do anything with it against what's been

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Speaker 5: a pretty sturdy Palace back line. So I'm looking to

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Speaker 5: play Palace, but I need a better number than the

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Speaker 5: current one.

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Speaker 3: Asuma eighteen months left on his contract. He's been mentioned

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Speaker 3: in some transfer rumors past couple of days that would

355
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Speaker 3: be a big blow to Brighton seven thirty am on Saturday,

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Speaker 3: the co headliner for the weekend is Manchester City minus

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Speaker 3: one forty five hosting Chelsea four to one on the

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Speaker 3: money line the Druss plus three ten. Chelsea is ten

359
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Speaker 3: points behind City in the title race Cities at fifty

360
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Speaker 3: three points Chelsea forty three Liverpool forty two. The Blues

361
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Speaker 3: are coming off a couple strong performances in the EFL

362
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Speaker 3: Cup against Spurs once again like to draw here. I

363
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Speaker 3: think this is going to be a classic low event

364
00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:56,760
Speaker 3: game where City. A lot of times when we build

365
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Speaker 3: up these kind of games, especially when they involve Manchester City,

366
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Speaker 3: whether it's like going to be a City Liverpool game

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Speaker 3: or City Chelsea. Whoever, it's going to be the last

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Speaker 3: City Liverpool game. Nonwithstanding a lot of times these games

369
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Speaker 3: really fail to meet expectations in terms of casual fans.

370
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Speaker 3: And I just don't think City is going to come

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Speaker 3: out of a shell that much in this one because

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Speaker 3: a draw doesn't do Chelsea any good here. Chelsea needs

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Speaker 3: to go for it if they want to get back

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Speaker 3: into the title race. So little games theory leads me

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Speaker 3: to the draw. I think this will be a pretty

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Speaker 3: low event game where Pep will set his side up

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Speaker 3: to really just park the big blue bus. BJ, what

378
00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:29,160
Speaker 3: do you have for this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go under two and a half goals

380
00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:33,400
Speaker 2: at plus one oh five once again in this match,

381
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Speaker 2: in which I think we did twice last season. So

382
00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,920
Speaker 2: these teams essentially have met four times since last April

383
00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,760
Speaker 2: and every single match has ended with less than two

384
00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:45,080
Speaker 2: point three non penalty expected goals created. So the question

385
00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:47,560
Speaker 2: is what's changed so much that the under two and

386
00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:49,880
Speaker 2: a half goals at plus one o five in my opinion,

387
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Speaker 2: not a lot. You know, obviously Chelsea has real little

388
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Speaker 2: kako Now City has Jack Grealish, but City is still

389
00:16:56,280 --> 00:17:00,760
Speaker 2: this possession dominant side. They're still very dominant defensively Chelsea. Obviously,

390
00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:03,720
Speaker 2: they were running incredibly hot defensively to begin the season

391
00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:07,000
Speaker 2: and were over performing their expected goals. However, there's still

392
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Speaker 2: a really good, solid defensive unit, allowing only point eighty

393
00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,320
Speaker 2: five non penalty expected goals per match and are top

394
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:16,240
Speaker 2: five in shots allowed per ninety minutes, big scoring chance

395
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:18,920
Speaker 2: loud and box entries allowed. And they've been really really

396
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Speaker 2: good as of late as well. They've only allowed three

397
00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,320
Speaker 2: point five expected goals in their last five Premier League matches.

398
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Speaker 2: The last time these two teams met earlier on the season,

399
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Speaker 2: City absolutely dominated Chelsea. Chelsea only had five shots, eight

400
00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:33,760
Speaker 2: touches in Cities penalty area and City was able to

401
00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:37,760
Speaker 2: hold sixty percent possession. Well, now Manchester City is on

402
00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:41,040
Speaker 2: average holding over sixty eight percent possession. They've held over

403
00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:44,720
Speaker 2: seventy percent possession in their last four matches, so they've

404
00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 2: really turned in back to this possession dominant side rather

405
00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:50,919
Speaker 2: than the direct attacking team that we kind of saw earlier.

406
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Speaker 1: In the season.

407
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Speaker 2: So I have a hard time seeing how Chelsea's going

408
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:55,640
Speaker 2: to be able to honestly control much of the possession

409
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,680
Speaker 2: and really hit City on the counter. Cities looked incredible defensively,

410
00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:00,800
Speaker 2: they have been. You know, they were attached against Arsenal

411
00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:02,800
Speaker 2: in the first half obviously, you know Ursio got the

412
00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:05,000
Speaker 2: red card and you know, didn't really create anything for

413
00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,160
Speaker 2: the rest of the match. But City offensively hasn't really

414
00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:10,520
Speaker 2: been at their best as of late. Only one expected

415
00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:13,360
Speaker 2: goal against Brentford. Like I already mentioned, point I four

416
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Speaker 2: expected goals against Arsenal in the first sixty minutes. They're

417
00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:19,280
Speaker 2: gonna be without Phil Foden. They're gonna be without ried

418
00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:21,960
Speaker 2: Marez for this match. I understand that City has a

419
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,720
Speaker 2: ton of depth and talent and they're attacking ranks, but

420
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Speaker 2: those two guys have combined for ten point two expected

421
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,480
Speaker 2: goals in five point five expected assist this season, so

422
00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:32,880
Speaker 2: it is a tad bit of a blow. I only

423
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,960
Speaker 2: have two point three four goals projected for this one,

424
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,040
Speaker 2: so I love under two and a half goals at

425
00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:40,040
Speaker 2: plus one oh five, and I think we're going to

426
00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:42,000
Speaker 2: see another low event game between these two teams.

427
00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:45,080
Speaker 3: All right, we'll move on to turf More ten am

428
00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:49,119
Speaker 3: kickoff on Saturday plus one ninety is Burnley hosting lester

429
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,600
Speaker 3: who come back at plus one fifty, Leicester's gonna play

430
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,960
Speaker 3: a game. I guess the draws plus two forty. Burnley's

431
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:56,920
Speaker 3: played two games in a month. Leicester City has played

432
00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,399
Speaker 3: two games in a month. These are two pedestrian defenses

433
00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:03,440
Speaker 3: with offenses. Leicester's at least is pretty good and will

434
00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,240
Speaker 3: punish you if on the counter with Jamie Vardi, et cetera.

435
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,200
Speaker 3: I do want to say that Chris Wood moving from

436
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:12,879
Speaker 3: Burnley to Newcastle and when you're selling, you're basically your

437
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,240
Speaker 3: the focal point of your offense. I know Maxwell Cornett

438
00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 3: has been really good, but he's more of a creator,

439
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,680
Speaker 3: but really peculiar move for Burnley, almost like a little

440
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,639
Speaker 3: bit of a semi white flag in the relegation battle,

441
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,639
Speaker 3: like we can't contend with what Newcastle is going to do,

442
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,280
Speaker 3: so might not catch in on it. However, I think

443
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:30,320
Speaker 3: this game is going to be more wide open than

444
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 3: I guess people would expect. When when you're thinking about

445
00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:34,160
Speaker 3: a Burnley match, especially when at home where they're going

446
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,160
Speaker 3: to need three points or at least a point against

447
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,159
Speaker 3: a better opponent, you expect Sean Ditsche to kind of

448
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:40,520
Speaker 3: set up in a very pragmatic four four two and

449
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 3: hope just to outlast his opposition. But that's just not

450
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:45,320
Speaker 3: really how Burnley's been playing this year. They've been very

451
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:48,680
Speaker 3: leaky in the back. So I think a plan an over,

452
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:50,920
Speaker 3: even if you want to do an all line isn't terrible.

453
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,520
Speaker 3: I'll probably be passing on this one, but that's where

454
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 3: I'm looking. Anthony got anything for Burnley and Leicester?

455
00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:57,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I really do want to play the

456
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:01,359
Speaker 5: under here, but BJ will tell you the set piece numbers.

457
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,000
Speaker 5: I'm sure the Lester's conceded more on set pieces than

458
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:06,240
Speaker 5: any team in the league, and Burnley gets a lot

459
00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 5: of their chances off of set pieces. That's a matchup issue,

460
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,479
Speaker 5: and especially when you consider the Lester team news here

461
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:15,040
Speaker 5: and who's out. Wesley Plafona's been out forever, Johnny Evans

462
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:16,280
Speaker 5: is going to be out again. It looks like Jamie

463
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,160
Speaker 5: Vardi is out. Indeed he is at av Con. Amarte

464
00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:23,200
Speaker 5: is at Afcon, Ianacho is at AFCON. Who are the

465
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:26,439
Speaker 5: good attackers left? I guess Madison and Daca are going

466
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:29,680
Speaker 5: to start, so Burnley doesn't have Chris Wood anymore. The

467
00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,560
Speaker 5: release clause that the story behind that is actually wild

468
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 5: in the sense that Kieran Trippier signs with Newcastle and

469
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,200
Speaker 5: he happens to have the same agent as Chris Wood,

470
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:39,720
Speaker 5: and you know, maybe there was like a nudge nudge.

471
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:41,760
Speaker 4: He has a release clause and then Newcastle.

472
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 5: I don't know if they're going to play Chris Wood

473
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,399
Speaker 5: or not, or what the story there is, but they

474
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 5: just took the best striker off their fellow relegation battle team,

475
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 5: so that's probably plus ev for them. But yeah, I

476
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 5: lean under two and a half here. Both teams have

477
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 5: not been quite as bad defensively as the numbers suggest

478
00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:58,439
Speaker 5: in terms of goals allowed.

479
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:00,879
Speaker 4: I do expect some less unders. Eventually.

480
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:03,640
Speaker 5: We got one against Liverpool somehow, But I can't play

481
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,359
Speaker 5: this given the set piece numbers, so I'm going to pass.

482
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you touched on it. The set piece

483
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 3: issue is real, but without Chris Wood, one of the

484
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 3: guys who will be thundering through the box to head

485
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 3: home across it maybe has muted a little bit. BJ.

486
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 3: You are leaning towards the over here though a little

487
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:22,439
Speaker 3: slight disagreement with Anthony right.

488
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, the disrespect to Jay Rodriguez and Aaron Lennon on

489
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 2: this podcast man. Yeah, there's too much to sort out

490
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 2: from a player personnel standpoint for this one, but I

491
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 2: do think that, you know, a couple of things have

492
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 2: kind of canceled out to whether there is some the

493
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,200
Speaker 2: value on the over still kind of exists. So obviously

494
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 2: Chris Wood is going to Newcastle. Cornet is with the

495
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 2: Ivory Coast at the Africa Up of Nations, So it's

496
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 2: probably gonna be Aaron Lennon and Jay Rodriguez because Vedre

497
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:49,960
Speaker 2: has COVID. But I do think they will be able

498
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 2: to create chances against Lester's unbelievably depleted defense. So, like

499
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 2: Anthony mentioned, Johnny Evans is out along with the whole

500
00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 2: host of other guys, and also Daniel Armazi who was

501
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 2: playing out of position at center back filling in for

502
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 2: Evans alongside Ciuonko. That's a problem going up against you know,

503
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 2: Tarkowski and me, who are going to be the focal

504
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 2: points on the corners, and Anthony said I'd mentioned it.

505
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 2: I have to Lester nine goals allowed off of corners

506
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:17,920
Speaker 2: this season, allowing point one to five expected goals per corner.

507
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:19,880
Speaker 1: That's the worst mark in the Premier League.

508
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:21,959
Speaker 2: Burnley still has a bunch of big bodies that can

509
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 2: get in there and get their head on the ball

510
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 2: and put it in the back of the net. Lester

511
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,400
Speaker 2: has also allowed twenty six shots inside the six yard box,

512
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 2: which is the third most in the Premier League. So

513
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 2: even without Wood, even without Corney, I do think they'll

514
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 2: be able to get some chances close to the box

515
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 2: and hopefully they'll be able to put in the back

516
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 2: of the net. On the flip side, I think seeing

517
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:40,919
Speaker 2: Patson Daka in the lineup is going to be actually

518
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 2: a plus for Lester with Vardi out in the NATCHA.

519
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 2: At Afcon, Daka has a point six to one expectable

520
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 2: per ninety minute scoring rates when he's gotten a couple

521
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 2: of chances. In the Europa League, he's really performed well

522
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 2: four goals against Spartak Moscow. Lester still has James Madison,

523
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 2: Harvey Barnes lookman all healthy going up against a very

524
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 2: poor Burnley defense which is allowing one point five to

525
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,920
Speaker 2: two expected goals per matches, only held their opponents under

526
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:08,360
Speaker 2: one expected goal four times this season. I have two

527
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 2: point eighty five goals protected for this match. I understand

528
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 2: all the personnel issues with both teams, but I think

529
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 2: it all kind of cancels out. So I like the

530
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 2: price on over two and a half goals at minus

531
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 2: one ten, but it's got to be minus one ten

532
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:19,160
Speaker 2: or better.

533
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 3: At what point are Wolverhampton games going to start featuring

534
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,920
Speaker 3: some goals. Total goals per game one point four to

535
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 3: seven for Wolverhampton this season. That is the lowest in

536
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 3: all of Europe's major leagues. The next lowest team is

537
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,680
Speaker 3: obviously a La Lega team that's Gatafe at one point seven.

538
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 3: In terms of the Premier League, it's Brighton at two

539
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,959
Speaker 3: point one one, so over half a goal more per

540
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 3: game from Wolves to Brighton. It's just unbelievable. Fourteen goals

541
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 3: on the season to score at fourteen goals allowed for

542
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,920
Speaker 3: Bruno Laja's men. Once again, I will remind people that

543
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 3: one person on this podcast who will go unnamed, said

544
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 3: that Wolves was going to be an overteam because of

545
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,159
Speaker 3: all the talent before the season. They were wrong, they

546
00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 3: were Yeah, they're just like three matches. Yeah, that's true. God,

547
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 3: it's pretty it's just unbelievable. The old like cliche and

548
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:06,920
Speaker 3: the old trope about soccer is like nothing happens well

549
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 3: in Wolves games. That's that's basically true, and it shouldn't

550
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,160
Speaker 3: because there's talent on the team. I think Anthony talks

551
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 3: about it a lot on the show, Like, at some

552
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 3: point the goals will start coming in a Wolverhampton game,

553
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 3: and I guess Saints is this against Southampton. This is

554
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 3: a probably good spot. So let's set this one up.

555
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 3: Wolverhampton is plus one twenty at home hosting Southampton, plus

556
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,199
Speaker 3: two to fifty the draws plus two forty. Very very

557
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 3: tempted by the number on the jow, but I'm gonna

558
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 3: probably just pass on this one entirely because I do

559
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 3: wonder when these goals are going to come. I'm horrified

560
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 3: about it. Like at some point there's gonna be like

561
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 3: a six to two game with Wolves, and in Southampton

562
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 3: is a type of team that it can come against.

563
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 3: They play a much more high events style. Anthony, do

564
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,159
Speaker 3: have anything for Saints and Wolves?

565
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, the goals are coming, I promise. I

566
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 4: don't know when.

567
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 5: I might not have any bankroll left by the time

568
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 5: they do come back. But twenty four expected goals allowed,

569
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 5: fourteen actual goals allowed. United Route went off the bar

570
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 5: from close range. Shout out to Mutino for the goal

571
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:05,159
Speaker 5: against United to win that one last week. Saints, you know,

572
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 5: they were the team early in the year where I

573
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 5: kept saying, look, the attacking regression is coming, it's coming,

574
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 5: it's coming. Well, they've scored nine goals in their last

575
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 5: four games from about four expected goals, so they've now

576
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 5: for the season come right back in at twenty four

577
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 5: goals and twenty five expected goals, the classic XG story.

578
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 5: We do love when they have a happy ending for

579
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 5: Saints in this case, although not hopefully too happy because

580
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 5: I do have a season point total.

581
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 1: Under on them overall.

582
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 4: I think the market is a little low on the total.

583
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 5: But do I really want to back Wolves to go

584
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 5: over after nine straight unders when I could have said

585
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 5: the same exact spiel last week and backed it over when.

586
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 4: They had eight straight unders.

587
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 5: I don't really think this sets up to be a

588
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 5: huge open game necessarily, so I'm going to pass here.

589
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 4: But I do lean toward both Saints and the over BG.

590
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 3: You think this one could be a sleepy spot for

591
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:52,920
Speaker 3: someone who's looking to get in on a like a

592
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 3: live bet. You know, when it's zero zero in the

593
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:56,400
Speaker 3: eighty seventh minute, perhaps.

594
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, So what's kind of shocking about Wolves is that

595
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 2: if you look, you know what their actual goals scored

596
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 2: in like the first and second half, it's it's basically nothing,

597
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 2: obviously because eight or eight trade unders or eight nine

598
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 2: three hunderds, however much it is. But in the first

599
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 2: half this season, Wolves's matches are only allowed are only

600
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 2: averaging around one point sixty seven expected goals per in

601
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 2: the first half. In the second half, they haven't really

602
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 2: scored much. It's only around their actual totals only around

603
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:23,159
Speaker 2: like one point four per match, but they're expected is

604
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 2: that two point nine. That means there's a lot more

605
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 2: chances being created in the second half, and their respectable

606
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 2: different differential is about even. So to Anthony's point, the

607
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 2: goals are coming, and I think if we're gonna have

608
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 2: goals in this one, it's most likely going to be

609
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 2: in the second half. So there could be a scenario.

610
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:42,119
Speaker 2: You know, obviously, you know game states whatever happening, and

611
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,160
Speaker 2: you know obviously that all matters. You don't just take

612
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 2: this blindly. But if we get a new scenario where

613
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 2: you know, both teams are at least creating something like

614
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 2: it's it's not like, you know, like a point one

615
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 2: to point two expected goals in the first half. There's

616
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 2: a chance you get in on an over one goal

617
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,119
Speaker 2: or maybe even over half a goal live, you know,

618
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 2: late into the second half and try to get a

619
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,679
Speaker 2: late winner on somebody. As far as the price is concerned,

620
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 2: I do have a little bit of value on Wolves

621
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 2: plus one thirty, but they're similar to one of these

622
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 2: teams with Brighton that I don't trust them to get

623
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:10,439
Speaker 2: margin against some of.

624
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 1: These lower sides that are below them.

625
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 2: And the funny thing about Wolves is that we talked

626
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:15,879
Speaker 2: about the b N season, Oh my gosh, they're the

627
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 2: new Brighton, like, you know, they're so unlucky and it

628
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 2: like that. Well now it's completely flipped like they have

629
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 2: a minus six point two expecting Golden frenchal but they're

630
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 2: in eighth place, like they should be way low on

631
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 2: the table and where they're at. So I'm staying away

632
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,880
Speaker 2: from Wolves Lynton until they show any sign of life offensively.

633
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 2: But I do think given that positive offensive russion coming

634
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 2: in the second half, I do think they're the chance

635
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 2: you can get on this over Live at a better number.

636
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 4: I'm gonna do it.

637
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 3: I'm gonna call it a relegation battle because it is

638
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 3: because Everdence stinks. They're terrible. Hate them. Norwich City plus

639
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 3: two to eighty five hosting Everdent even money favorites on

640
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 3: the road. Somehow they should be ten to one in

641
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:51,920
Speaker 3: every game against every team the draws plus two sixty five.

642
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 3: There are some good news for the topees though coming.

643
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 3: Richardleston was at practice today. Is South American friend Yarry Mina,

644
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 3: he was back training today. Dominic Calvert Leuwin looks set

645
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 3: for another full ninety. This should be a get right

646
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,719
Speaker 3: spot for this Everden team. They should have a squad

647
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,359
Speaker 3: that looks closer to where you'd expect them to be

648
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 3: in terms of its talent, with maybe Nathan Patterson finally

649
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 3: giving Seamus Coleman a blow at right full back, and

650
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 3: then Batali Mikalenko coming in for Luca Dean who's now

651
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:23,200
Speaker 3: out of the picture unfortunately after falling out with Ralpha Benitez.

652
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 3: He's now with Austin Villa. And this Norwich City team

653
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 3: is there for the taking. Bet them to pull an

654
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 3: upset against west Ham over the midweek. They know showed

655
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 3: again fifteen goals allowed zero goals four in their last

656
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 3: six games and they expected goals numbers. Yeah, they have

657
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 3: obviously created close to four I believe expected goals for

658
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 3: so there are some offensive regression coming. But we've been

659
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 3: saying that about this team for so long. I actually

660
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised if Everdon really just pummels Norwich on Saturday.

661
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 3: But like I said, Everdon stink, So I don't know

662
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 3: if you can bet them at this number. Here, Anthony,

663
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 3: what do you have for taffies and canaries?

664
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was actually a miracle.

665
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 5: I stayed off Norwich over team total today against West Ham.

666
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 4: I came very close.

667
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 5: Of course, they hit the post, didn't score, but didn't

668
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 5: really create much either, so you can't really say it

669
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 5: was the right side. I did stay away. However, I

670
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 5: am not staying away this week. I'm taking both teams

671
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 5: to score. Yes, Everton's bad, and you've said this before,

672
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:18,719
Speaker 5: We've said this on the show a lot, but they

673
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 5: actually have the worst goal difference expected goal difference in

674
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 5: even game states this year and fourth worst when playing

675
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 5: with the lead. When these two teams played earlier in

676
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 5: the year, Everton wasn't one hundred percent healthy, but they

677
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 5: were relatively healthy compared to some of the other matches

678
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 5: they had where they were rolling out the B team.

679
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 5: Everton conceded ten shots in almost a full expected goal.

680
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 5: Norwich completed more passes, had more touches in the final third,

681
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 5: they had a penalty go against them. They lost two nil,

682
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 5: probably could have been a one nil, one to one

683
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 5: type of game, but Norwich really did have their chances

684
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 5: to score in that match, and that was at Everton.

685
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 4: Now they're at home.

686
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 5: They might just be totally cooked and we're going to

687
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 5: lose money on them for a lot of the second

688
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 5: half of the season. But I have to think there's

689
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 5: some type of a dead cat bounce here, some effort

690
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 5: for them to get a goal at some point, and

691
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 5: so I think this is as good of a spot

692
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 5: for them to score at this price as you're going

693
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 5: to have all year. This is not a Big Six

694
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 5: team playing against them, this is Everton on the road,

695
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 5: and so I'm going to take both teams to score

696
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 5: in this one, and I'm going to hold my nose

697
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 5: for a ninety minutes. I'm probably not going to have

698
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 5: this game on given that it's Saturday at ten am,

699
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 5: but I will just be waiting for the alert that

700
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 5: says Norwich one Everton one, and then I'll feel good.

701
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:26,959
Speaker 3: You know who will be having this game on at

702
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 3: ten am a Saturday morning. That'll be me under the

703
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 3: covers and just really feeling horrible for myself. If you're

704
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 3: not in betting for feeling some sort of self loathing,

705
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 3: then why are you betting at all?

706
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 2: Bj ever Diet in Norwich Man, Yeah, you're kind of

707
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 2: in the Yeah, I'm going to kind of be as

708
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 2: similar vein as Anthony. I'm gonna go over two and

709
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 2: a half goals at plus one five kind of maybe

710
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 2: protect myself if the Norwich offense just truly is as

711
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 2: bad as they've been showing. But you know, I do

712
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 2: think that, especially against an Everton defense that has struggled

713
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 2: this season, Norwich creating four point five expected goals in

714
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 2: their last six match but not finding the back of.

715
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 1: The net once.

716
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 2: I think they're well overdue to score. Everton will see

717
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 2: if they're gonna be without Urimina. But the Everton defense

718
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 2: has been really bad as of late, twelve point five

719
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 2: expected goals allowed in their last seven matches. But Everton,

720
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 2: I think Everton overs might be a thing kind of

721
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 2: going forward with Dominique Calvert Lewin back in the mix.

722
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 2: You know, the last time, last time they were out,

723
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 2: they played that chaotic match against Brighton. They almost came

724
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 2: back and won and stole a point.

725
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 1: But they you know, were able to create.

726
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 2: One point seven expected goals on a top six defense

727
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 2: in the Premier leagues. That's actually pretty impressive and now

728
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 2: they get to face one of the worst defenses in

729
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 2: the in the league. Norwich was horrible against west Ham.

730
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 2: Allowed three big scoring chances. You know, west Ham could

731
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 2: have honestly just picked their score. They had a couple,

732
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 2: had one barred off, you know, a couple of other

733
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 2: chances that went begging. Tim Krule should have gotten a

734
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 2: penalty called against him. But Norwich one point seventy five

735
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 2: expected goals allowed per match, their bottom five and every

736
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:54,479
Speaker 2: single defensive metric. Everton, with Tamari Gray and Townshend healthy

737
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 2: alongside Dominie Calvert Lewin helps a ton If for Charleston

738
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 2: comes back, that's an even added bonus. The big thing

739
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 2: about Everton we talked about whenever they have to play

740
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 2: the bigger sides, they're terrible when team against teams that

741
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 2: press them, well, that's not Norwich, even though they pressed

742
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 2: to the high rate. Norwich is dead last in prescious

743
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 2: success rate, only around twenty seven percent this season. I

744
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 2: have two point five to five goals projected, so a

745
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 2: little bit of value on over two and a half

746
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 2: goals at plus one oh five, and I agree with

747
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 2: anting that we will hopefully start to see some Norwich

748
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 2: offensive aggression, but I'm going to take over and kind

749
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 2: of protect myself against that in case Everton wins three nothing.

750
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 5: EJ just broke the first rule of the podcast that

751
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 5: I just randomly instituted, which is that you cannot call

752
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 5: any team an over team ever after Michael's Wolves are

753
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 5: an overteam called we don't know.

754
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:43,479
Speaker 3: Don't We don't know who said it. We're not going

755
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 3: to say who said. Someone on this podcast did say

756
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 3: in the previous show that Wolves is going to be

757
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 3: an over team. We don't say who.

758
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 5: Uh.

759
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 3: From one relegation battle to another, Newcastle plus one oh

760
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 3: five at home against Watford plus two fifty five. The

761
00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 3: draw is plus two sixty five here boy, like we said,

762
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 3: Chris Wood now in Newcastle, Keriy and Tripier should make

763
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 3: his debut. I haven't seen anything to suggest otherwise yet,

764
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 3: but the last time Newcastle played they played against Cambridge

765
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 3: United at home. They had one of their new owners

766
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 3: in town. The rumor was that he came because he

767
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 3: thought this was a guaranteed win in the FA Cup

768
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 3: against Cambridge United and guess what they lost. I think

769
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 3: the number here on Watford is good enough. I hope

770
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 3: it goes up. I hope it ticks up a little

771
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 3: bit more. But two fifty five on the money line,

772
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 3: I think I'm going to be in. We talked about

773
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 3: it all the time with Newcastle. This is a terrible

774
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 3: defense and they're going up against a terrible defense. But Watford,

775
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 3: even with some guys out smile a sar most notably,

776
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 3: should still be able to find a way to score

777
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 3: in this game. And they did show a little bit

778
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 3: of moxie. They were much more encouraging defensively against Tottenham

779
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 3: in their last match, so maybe the defense is starting

780
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 3: to turn a minor corner. I'm not expecting it to

781
00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 3: get better, but look, this is a game where Newcastle

782
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 3: should be there for the taking in it. Watford can

783
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 3: have one of their weird performances like they did against Everdence,

784
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 3: like they did against Manchester United, they should have a

785
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:09,359
Speaker 3: pretty good chance of winning this game. I think they

786
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 3: have a better chance than the odd suggests, even on

787
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 3: the road. So give me Claudio Ranieri's Hornets to pull

788
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 3: the upset against Newcastle in what is a true, true

789
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 3: relegation battle. Here, BJ you have anything for these two

790
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 3: wonderful teams?

791
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:26,880
Speaker 1: No, not right now.

792
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 2: I lean Watford. I have Newcastle projected at plus one nineteen.

793
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 2: It's just very hard to get behind. It seems kind

794
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 2: of crazy to sit here and be like, yeah, I'm not.

795
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 1: Going to take Watford win.

796
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 2: We have Newcastle who has you know, they basically only

797
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 2: had one win against the lower side and it was

798
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 2: against Norwich. But you know, no Collum Wilson for this one.

799
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 2: For Newcastle, tre and trip here is obviously going to

800
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 2: help them a ton defensively. Newcastle has a couple other

801
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 2: guys out, Emmanuel Dennis will be looks like they'll be

802
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 2: playing for Watford, who was back in training.

803
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 1: So it's just it's just hard, you know.

804
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 2: You know, I'm looking at the matrix right now and

805
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 2: neither of these teams or in the bottom five of

806
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 2: pretty much everything that we look at. So it's very

807
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 2: hard for me to get behind either one of these teams.

808
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 2: If for some reason. Newcastle decides to tick up and

809
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,760
Speaker 2: they you know, and Watford plus half a goal becomes

810
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:14,879
Speaker 2: plus money or better.

811
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 1: I'll probably end up playing that. But other than that,

812
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 1: I'm just going to stay away from this relegation battle.

813
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:19,399
Speaker 2: Yeah.

814
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:21,839
Speaker 3: I think the numbers may not show it, but it's

815
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 3: just there's some times where you just you look at

816
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 3: a number like plus two fifty five and you're getting

817
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:28,840
Speaker 3: it to play against a really bad team. You just

818
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,800
Speaker 3: got to take it. Watford they're sitting at thirteen points,

819
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:35,919
Speaker 3: Burnley at eleven, Newcastle eleven, Norch at ten. Somehow Norich

820
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 3: has remained in touch with everybody else, which is unbelievable.

821
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 3: It's been a really strange season in terms of the

822
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 3: relegation fight, but yeah, I like Watford here. Moving on

823
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 3: to the twelve thirty pm kickoff on Saturday, it's a

824
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 3: rematch from Monday in the FA Cup. Aston Villa plus

825
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 3: two or five hosting Manchester United plus one thirty. The

826
00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 3: draw is plus two fifty Ralph Rangnick's Man United. Maybe

827
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 3: he's just not the right guy for the job. Maybe

828
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 3: Ole wasn't the problem. Maybe this team just isn't constructed well.

829
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 3: Who knows, but Manchester United. They're not They've not been

830
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,359
Speaker 3: very good. It's kind of hard to justify backing them,

831
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:15,839
Speaker 3: especially as a road favorite. But it feels a little

832
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 3: even though they did win, it feels a little bit

833
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 3: like a Bilow spot here on United because everyone is

834
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 3: so down on them. They shouldn't have won that game,

835
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 3: and when Manchester United puts in a performance like that,

836
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 3: everybody takes notice about it. It's talked about in all

837
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 3: the papers in England. So even though they did win,

838
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 3: it's not like the sentiment is going to inflate their

839
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 3: price that much. Meanwhile, as a Villa we know this

840
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 3: kind of the story right now. With Jerard very good

841
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:42,360
Speaker 3: defensively struggling to create offensively consistently, they shouldn't have too

842
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 3: much of a problem with a United defense. It's still

843
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 3: not very good. It's just they just look disjointed. Under Ragnik,

844
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 3: it looks like nobody knows what they're supposed to be doing,

845
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 3: which is not too dissimilar from what we under Soulshar.

846
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:56,399
Speaker 3: I think, honestly, I'd be closer to United in this game,

847
00:36:56,480 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 3: but I'm going to be passing in Villa and United.

848
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:04,320
Speaker 3: Stina Jerrard was giving it to United fans before the

849
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 3: game and then ended up losing. So that was funny

850
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 3: and as an everative fan, I did like to see that.

851
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 3: But Anthony, you do have a lean in this one.

852
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:12,360
Speaker 4: There's some concerns.

853
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:16,959
Speaker 5: Scott mccominey is suspended, Luke Shaw is suspended for this match.

854
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 5: Harry maguire remains questionable. Ronaldo did not play in the

855
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 5: FA Cup match against Villa ironically on Monday.

856
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 4: That was at home.

857
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 5: Now they're on the road. The market has not moved

858
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 5: a ton off of the performance on Monday. It moved

859
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:36,240
Speaker 5: about five cents in United's favor, but not noticeable most shops.

860
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 5: I lean towards Villa here, but I need a better

861
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:41,799
Speaker 5: number than the one currently offered. The way I see

862
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:44,360
Speaker 5: this match, Villa will set up being very difficult to

863
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:47,360
Speaker 5: break down. When they played the first time at Old Trafford,

864
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 5: United had twenty seven shots, which is a ton, but

865
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 5: not one big scoring chance until the penalty by Bruno

866
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 5: Fernanz that was saved in stoppage time that led to

867
00:37:56,719 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 5: Villa winning the match. So I really don't see how

868
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 5: they break down a pretty sturdy defense, and therefore I

869
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:06,840
Speaker 5: thank towards Villa. You could play a drawn no bet number.

870
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 5: I won't hate it, but when you look at just

871
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 5: all the injuries that are piling up for United, the

872
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 5: biggest problem with Ragnik right now. One the midfield personnel

873
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 5: is not great. Two the right back is a major issue.

874
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 5: Three Rinaldo does not really fit the system even with

875
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 5: Ragnet particularly well. And then you throw in that Sancho

876
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 5: has been now injured. Brashford's very out of form and

877
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 5: doesn't look right at all. Cavani's aging. Like, there's a

878
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 5: lot of issues with this squad that don't really get

879
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 5: fixed by a managerial change. And I don't really know

880
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:39,840
Speaker 5: anymore how much we can buy long term on United.

881
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 5: I was optimistic with Ragnik, but now I'm starting to

882
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 5: be a bit skeptical.

883
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, one thing I'll mention that this line has, you know,

884
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 2: it's kind of shows how it kind of smart the

885
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 2: market has kind of become because obviously Manchester United beats

886
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:54,320
Speaker 2: them one mil in the FA Cup. They before that

887
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 2: FA Cup match, they opened up at minus one five

888
00:38:57,280 --> 00:38:59,879
Speaker 2: and in the last about two days United as crab

889
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 2: all the way down to plus one thirty five.

890
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 1: So there's been some big market move.

891
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 2: But Obviously with mctomanay and Luke Shaw out, that's a

892
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 2: concern for United defensively. But on the flip side, mcgainn

893
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:12,360
Speaker 2: is out for Aston Villa Trior as an Africa comp nations,

894
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 2: so they have some issues themselves. It's just kind of

895
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 2: interesting and I question, at what point do we have

896
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 2: to play United? Because I have them projected at plus

897
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:21,560
Speaker 2: one thirty, So if I can get you know, if

898
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:23,800
Speaker 2: this becomes a pick them and I can get United

899
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:25,840
Speaker 2: at you know, John Obad at minus one ten, I

900
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:27,360
Speaker 2: think I might have to end up playing that.

901
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:29,320
Speaker 4: I would agree on that front if we got to

902
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 4: that point.

903
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 5: I think a lot of that was the Ronaldo move

904
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 5: because it was a surprise that he was left out

905
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 5: of the Monday team altogether and muscle tightness.

906
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 4: Who knows how long that lasts.

907
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 5: You know whether he'll be able to go. I'm guessing

908
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 5: they're going to be more careful with him than not,

909
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 5: but we don't really know. And at a certain point,

910
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 5: who is the midfield depth? Are we really going to

911
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:51,919
Speaker 5: get Fred and Mattich Madick again? I think Villa will

912
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 5: happily sign up for that. Mcconmany has been in pretty

913
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 5: good form to his credits, so there's a lot of

914
00:39:57,160 --> 00:40:00,360
Speaker 5: uncertainty with the United situation. Also, the center backs situation

915
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 5: is not great, so I'm not really looking to back

916
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:04,919
Speaker 5: them as a road favorite against a solid Villa team.

917
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:06,440
Speaker 5: But like you mentioned, if it gets to a pickup,

918
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 5: I think that really changes the number here. Whereas if

919
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:11,279
Speaker 5: United gets down to say plus one oh five plus

920
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:14,439
Speaker 5: one ten, I will be firing on Villa. So even

921
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,240
Speaker 5: if Ronaldo's in, which if he is in, I expect

922
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 5: some market movement towards United. I'm not really concerned about

923
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 5: Ronaldo's impact, and so I'm happy to fade the market

924
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 5: over reaction to Ronaldo and grab some Villa plus half.

925
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 3: We'll turn the page till Sunday morning, nine am Eastern Time.

926
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 3: Liverpool minus three ten, massive favorites at home hosting Brentford

927
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 3: plus eight point fifty. The draw is plus four to

928
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 3: seventy five or this one. Brentford was picked apart a

929
00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 3: little bit over the midweek by Southampton. However, we talk

930
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,439
Speaker 3: about Brighton being a good underdog, I think Pallace fits

931
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 3: a good profile as a strong underdog play in Brentford too,

932
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 3: because this is a defense that can just turn basically

933
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 3: any game into a coin flip no matter the opposition.

934
00:40:57,120 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 3: They have played really well against top tier teams throughout

935
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:04,919
Speaker 3: the season. They allowed one point oh two expectacles to City,

936
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 3: zero point twenty five expected goals to Chelsea and they

937
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 3: won the expectacles battle against Liverpool into three three draw

938
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 3: in the reverse fixture here, So I mean eight and

939
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 3: a half to one against a team that's going to

940
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 3: be missing Sadi Omane Mossa Lah among others. And look,

941
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:22,880
Speaker 3: Liverpool has some bad commra coming their way because urgnklop.

942
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 3: Maybe it has been fussing with the COVID tests and

943
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:28,840
Speaker 3: they're also not great for two and one in their

944
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,879
Speaker 3: last three wind draw loss. So I think Brentford worth

945
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 3: a shot on the money line here for sure. Anthony

946
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:36,840
Speaker 3: anything for the Reds and the Bees.

947
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:38,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't hate it.

948
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,720
Speaker 5: We saw last year when Liverpool wasn't getting the production

949
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 5: they normally get out of Sala and Mane. Of course

950
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:46,320
Speaker 5: they were out there, but they were not finishing chances

951
00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 5: that they kind of crumbled and they really don't scare

952
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 5: opponents without those two, and I know they have other guys.

953
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:56,400
Speaker 5: Jotta for me know is getting healthy. Arigi's actually been solid,

954
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 5: but they don't really have a ton of the winger

955
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 5: profiles that Mane and Slick on a take up, So

956
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 5: I mean, I'm interested to see what happens here. Probably

957
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 5: gonna end up staying away here. The one concern is

958
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 5: Brentford's been much better at home than away. They've had

959
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 5: very little attack when they've gone away from the Brentford

960
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:11,280
Speaker 5: Community Stadium.

961
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 4: I've said this before.

962
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 5: Their home numbers, despite playing a much tougher schedule at home,

963
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 5: have been really impressive. But they've also played the big

964
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 5: teams well and I think you have to credit them

965
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:23,320
Speaker 5: for that as well. They've been a pest, you know,

966
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 5: the Bees have been a bit of a pest for

967
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 5: the big sides. So maybe a lean toward Brentford for sure.

968
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 5: Don't hate the eight to one at all, but I'm

969
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:31,839
Speaker 5: going to be staying away here.

970
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:34,799
Speaker 3: The last game on the Premier League state that will

971
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 3: touch is west Ham minus one fifty five hosting Leeds

972
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 3: United plus four to twenty five. The Truss plus three twenty.

973
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 3: Leeds is coming off a big win over in the

974
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 3: last time they were out and a really touching moment

975
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 3: with Marcelo Biosa hugging his assistant. It really looked like

976
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:51,759
Speaker 3: the weight of the world came off his shoulders. There

977
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 3: is they kind of clinched, at least they clinched their

978
00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 3: ability to take a deep breath and put the relegation

979
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 3: battle behind them for the time. They're about at least

980
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 3: eight points or so above the drop zone right now

981
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 3: and that was when it gets Burnley too. So I

982
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 3: mean this is maybe a letdown spot for Leeds, but

983
00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:10,240
Speaker 3: I also think you get once again, you're going against

984
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 3: a west Ham team that they got to play Norwich

985
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:15,239
Speaker 3: City on Wednesday, so you can't really look too much

986
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 3: into it, but they are still on sort of wobbly

987
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 3: ground here without Angelo Obana. Thomas Soychek was out today.

988
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 3: If this west Ham team doesn't get bodies back, it's

989
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 3: going to be a little bit of an issue. And

990
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:28,880
Speaker 3: I think Leeds, you know, at some point, I think

991
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:31,959
Speaker 3: they're due to pull a win against a bigger club

992
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 3: the season. They do have the talent to do it.

993
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 3: They do play a really tough, annoying game to play against.

994
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,280
Speaker 3: And it is a bit of a bilo spot considering

995
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 3: that they just lost to nil to west Ham in

996
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:43,719
Speaker 3: the FA Cup over the weekend, so I think the

997
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 3: number here is a little inflated on Leeds United, who

998
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 3: maybe they start clipping some results together. Plus four to

999
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 3: twenty five to go against west Ham is I think

1000
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 3: good enough to get involved. Anthony, you agree with me, right,

1001
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:55,440
Speaker 3: I do.

1002
00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 5: West Ham is a negative expected goal difference the last

1003
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 5: two months. They're just not laying at the level that

1004
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 5: they were Leeds. I'm not going to pretend that they've.

1005
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 4: Been any good.

1006
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:06,440
Speaker 5: They've been about minus half a goal minus point four

1007
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,880
Speaker 5: to five per ninety in the last two months, and

1008
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:10,800
Speaker 5: a lot of that has come because of the injuries.

1009
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 5: They have not been able to sustain the Bielsa ball

1010
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 5: because all their players are getting hurt or they're getting COVID.

1011
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:18,560
Speaker 4: But they've also been way unlucky.

1012
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 5: Conceding about one point six XGA expected goals against per ninety,

1013
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:25,359
Speaker 5: but they're actually conceding closer to two goals. They've had

1014
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 5: a lot of bad penalty luck defensively, conceding a ton

1015
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:31,359
Speaker 5: of penalties. Melia has been well under expectations at shot

1016
00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:33,759
Speaker 5: stopping all these things that we tend to expect to

1017
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:36,800
Speaker 5: progress positively for them against the west Ham team that

1018
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 5: I think is getting a little bit too much love

1019
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 5: in the market. We saw a lot of market movement

1020
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:42,319
Speaker 5: against them against Norwich. I thought that was a little weird.

1021
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:45,759
Speaker 5: You know, Norwich is Norwich, but Leeds is definitely a

1022
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 5: class above that. And we're getting a pretty good number

1023
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 5: here at the plus one minus one, thirty one thirty

1024
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,880
Speaker 5: five's are out there. That's where I'm playing this. I

1025
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 5: just think that west Ham continues to be a little

1026
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 5: bit overrated as a favorite against a team that can

1027
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 5: cause them some issues and pressed them effectively.

1028
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:05,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, it could be a pretty wide open game. Crooking

1029
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:07,479
Speaker 3: number maybe bej that's where you're looking.

1030
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like over three goals and even money the

1031
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:12,759
Speaker 2: west Ham offense. We obviously Norwich is Norwich, but you

1032
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 2: know they've created close to about eight expected goals in

1033
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 2: their last four matches. I mean that's a real big

1034
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:21,359
Speaker 2: tickup from when they first lost Zuma and Obana. Their

1035
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:24,439
Speaker 2: their offense really tanked and they didn't really create much.

1036
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:26,240
Speaker 2: And now they get to go up against the Leeds

1037
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 2: defense that has allowed sixteen point six expected goals in

1038
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 2: their last eight matches. West Ham is a little bol

1039
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 2: of average against pressure. They're around seventh in offensive pass

1040
00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:39,759
Speaker 2: per defensive action and pressure's success rate allowed. I think

1041
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,399
Speaker 2: this is a situation where you have a Leeds team

1042
00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:45,880
Speaker 2: who is going to be without Diego Urente, without Liam Cooper,

1043
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 2: without Calvin Phillips, and potentially leads will be getting You know,

1044
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:54,640
Speaker 2: Patrick Bamford and Rodrigobbin upgraded to questionable, so if we

1045
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 2: see both of them then that could be a huge

1046
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:58,840
Speaker 2: boost to the Leeds offense because they've really struggled to

1047
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 2: create chances in Bread in Bamford's absence. I have three

1048
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:05,759
Speaker 2: point one three goals projected for this one, so I

1049
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:07,440
Speaker 2: think there's a little bit of value on the over

1050
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 2: but given basically both teams without their best two center backs,

1051
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 2: I think this could be a wide open game with

1052
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 2: a lot of chances at both ends. So over three

1053
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 2: goals even money for me.

1054
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 3: So that wraps up the Premier League portion of the program.

1055
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 3: We will move on to the Bundesliga. Now our favorite

1056
00:46:21,200 --> 00:46:23,879
Speaker 3: bets in Germany and did eight. We had a nice

1057
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 3: hit with Brussia Monk cloud Bok the other day. Gladbok

1058
00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 3: is back back to block as you like to say, man,

1059
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:32,800
Speaker 3: was it eight? I got I think eight eight and

1060
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:33,960
Speaker 3: a half to one or so on.

1061
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:36,840
Speaker 5: I had about seven plus seven to seventy, but I

1062
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:38,840
Speaker 5: got the number after some COVID news.

1063
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 3: Yep, and that was nice. So I'll let you go

1064
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:43,839
Speaker 3: first to try to keep the momentum. Go yeah.

1065
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 5: Shout out to the German person that shouted out my

1066
00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 5: Glodblock jersey that I was wearing on Friday and acknowledged it.

1067
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 5: I was on the way, but I did rewatch the

1068
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:58,239
Speaker 5: the highlights of the match. Epic win for glod Boch.

1069
00:46:58,320 --> 00:46:59,840
Speaker 4: I did back them again this.

1070
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:02,799
Speaker 5: Week, but they are not my favorite play. We're now

1071
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 5: doing our best bets from across Europe on Action Network

1072
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 5: dot Com. You can check those out for each of

1073
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:09,880
Speaker 5: the other four leagues. Besides the prem I'll be doing

1074
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:13,320
Speaker 5: the Bundesliga every week, and this week I'm finally buying

1075
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:16,200
Speaker 5: low on Wolfsburg. I've been waiting for my opportunity to

1076
00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:17,799
Speaker 5: jump in. I almost did against Calm.

1077
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 4: They blew it.

1078
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 5: This team has been an abject disaster in terms of

1079
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 5: any metric you want to look at, but they haven't

1080
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 5: been quite as bad as maybe their position in the

1081
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 5: table or their winless run really just losing run has been.

1082
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 5: They've lost now eight consecutive matches across Champions League and Bundesliga.

1083
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 5: They're sitting in fourteenth like they're almost in a relegation

1084
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:43,880
Speaker 5: battle here, but they're expected goals suggest that they're nowhere

1085
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 5: near that. They're about an average Bundesliga team. Expected goal

1086
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:49,440
Speaker 5: difference is pretty much dead even, and they continue to

1087
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:51,840
Speaker 5: just never take any of their chances at either end

1088
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 5: of the pitch, whether it's opponents scoring effectively against them

1089
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 5: or them not taking chances. They only have seventeen goals

1090
00:47:58,480 --> 00:47:59,439
Speaker 5: despite twenty six.

1091
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 4: That's right.

1092
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 5: Part of the reason they were in for Riccardo Peppy.

1093
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 5: They ended up getting him, but they were in for

1094
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:07,439
Speaker 5: him because they need more goal scoring. They've switched between

1095
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:08,879
Speaker 5: a three at the back to a four at the back.

1096
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:10,759
Speaker 5: Now they're back to a three at the back. This

1097
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 5: is as good of a get right spot as you're

1098
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 5: going to have at home against Herta, who is dreadful

1099
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:20,400
Speaker 5: at pretty much everything in terms of defensive categories, and

1100
00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:22,359
Speaker 5: their attack has really been struggling. They've had a lot

1101
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 5: of injuries lately, so I'm backing Wilfsburg here minus one

1102
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 5: oh five. This is as good of a spot as

1103
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 5: you're ever going to have to back this team.

1104
00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:29,919
Speaker 4: That's really struggling for goals.

1105
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 3: Bej what do you have for the Bundesliga this weekend?

1106
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:36,960
Speaker 2: Well, I have the hottest team in Germany, Michael Gruther Firket.

1107
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:38,879
Speaker 4: Red Hot.

1108
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:43,720
Speaker 2: Five points in their last four matches, three clean sheets

1109
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 2: in those four Red Red Hot Ruther Fertz and listen,

1110
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 2: I understand we make our jokes on here and we've

1111
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 2: backed Gruther and they've just completely you know, faltered and lost.

1112
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:58,360
Speaker 2: But going forward they're probably going to be providing value

1113
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:01,320
Speaker 2: week in and week out because we've set up before.

1114
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 2: Their minus thirty six actual goal differential is not as

1115
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 2: bad as the seams that seems really really bad, but

1116
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:11,239
Speaker 2: their expected goal differential is only minus sixteen point six,

1117
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:15,320
Speaker 2: which is around only one expected goal worse than their opponent,

1118
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:18,879
Speaker 2: Armenia BA Field, who has a minus fifteen point two

1119
00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 2: expected goal differential but an minus eight actual goal differential.

1120
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:25,719
Speaker 2: So this is a relegation battle between the bottom two

1121
00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:28,239
Speaker 2: teams in the Budesliga. I'm not going to sit here

1122
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 2: and try to pretend that Ruther is actually good. They're

1123
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:32,800
Speaker 2: one of the worst teams in Germany, there's no denying that.

1124
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:36,320
Speaker 2: But Armenia Bafield has done a ton of smash and

1125
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:39,760
Speaker 2: grabs this season, especially lately, where they've just gotten completely

1126
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 2: dominated and they somehow walk away with points.

1127
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:42,560
Speaker 1: Their last two.

1128
00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:45,879
Speaker 2: Matches, they beat ARBI Leipzig to nothing on the road,

1129
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:48,359
Speaker 2: lost on expected goals point seven to one point nine.

1130
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:51,800
Speaker 2: They drew with Freiburg this past weekend to two, but

1131
00:49:52,040 --> 00:49:54,879
Speaker 2: lost on expected goals point nine to two point two.

1132
00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:58,240
Speaker 2: In fact, Armenia ba Field has only won the expected

1133
00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:01,880
Speaker 2: goals battle three times all season long. Their offense is

1134
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 2: pathetic at trying to create high quality chances. They've only

1135
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:07,680
Speaker 2: created over one expected goal six times this season have

1136
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:11,280
Speaker 2: only created three big scoring chances in their last seven matches.

1137
00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 2: The first time that these two teams met it was

1138
00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:15,960
Speaker 2: I think the second weekend in the season. It was

1139
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 2: a one to one draw, but Gruther really should have

1140
00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:20,279
Speaker 2: won and took an all three points or Meani I

1141
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:21,840
Speaker 2: got a red card in the sixty eighth minute, but

1142
00:50:22,600 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 2: Ruth won the expected goals battle two point three to

1143
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 2: point six. They had thirty two touches in the Pealdy

1144
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:30,360
Speaker 2: area compared to only ten for bia Field, so I

1145
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 2: think it's insane that bea Field is a minus one

1146
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:37,840
Speaker 2: oh five favorite, although they are at home where they

1147
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:40,719
Speaker 2: have the worst expected goal differential in the Bundesliga and

1148
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:44,440
Speaker 2: have only won once. So gimme Ruther plus half a

1149
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:45,920
Speaker 2: goal at minus one ten.

1150
00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:48,839
Speaker 3: Give you Gruther. Give me Mines minus one plus one

1151
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:53,640
Speaker 3: thirty five, taking off Mine's second best expectacles allowed in Bundesliga.

1152
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:56,879
Speaker 3: The Bokum offense is near the bottom and basically every

1153
00:50:56,920 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 3: underlying metric we look for. Mines not a pro offense

1154
00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:03,879
Speaker 3: by any means, but the Bochum defense is not good either,

1155
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:06,960
Speaker 3: So I do trust that the offense can get some

1156
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:10,279
Speaker 3: separation here and then the defense can hold on to

1157
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:12,799
Speaker 3: cash a minus one at plus one thirty five. That's

1158
00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:16,520
Speaker 3: a nine thirty am kickoff on Saturday morning, Syria on Now,

1159
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:18,719
Speaker 3: I've got nothing in Syria add this weekend, so I'll

1160
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 3: let Anthony take it first.

1161
00:51:20,920 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, bj stole my pick fitting the Verona luckbox. He

1162
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:25,960
Speaker 5: took it first, so I give him that. But I'm

1163
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:28,319
Speaker 5: going to be on utness plus one and a half

1164
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:33,799
Speaker 5: against Juventus on the road on Saturday afternoon. Juventus had

1165
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:38,120
Speaker 5: a pretty incredible come from behind victory over the weekend

1166
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:41,239
Speaker 5: against Roma. They were down three to one. They were

1167
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:45,800
Speaker 5: completely getting played bj had the money line on Roma.

1168
00:51:46,719 --> 00:51:49,960
Speaker 5: Just absolute tragedy. Another two goal defeat for one of

1169
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:52,240
Speaker 5: his underdogs. I don't even know what to say anymore,

1170
00:51:52,280 --> 00:51:54,000
Speaker 5: but what I can say is that Uve is an

1171
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:57,120
Speaker 5: absolute luck box. There was a period where they were

1172
00:51:57,160 --> 00:51:59,800
Speaker 5: playing at a higher level and getting more margin, but

1173
00:52:00,640 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 5: the defense has considerably fallen off of late number one.

1174
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:08,360
Speaker 5: And when you look at the fact that now Federico

1175
00:52:08,440 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 5: Kieza is out, that is a huge loss for this team.

1176
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:13,680
Speaker 5: He's going to be out potentially through World Cup qualifying.

1177
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:16,200
Speaker 5: It looks like so gonna be a big blow for

1178
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:18,360
Speaker 5: Italy as well. But in terms of this match, I

1179
00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:21,640
Speaker 5: don't really trust Juventus to get margin against anybody, especially

1180
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:25,200
Speaker 5: a team like Utanesi, who has a pretty solid defense.

1181
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:28,279
Speaker 5: When you look at their numbers, their attack and their

1182
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:31,320
Speaker 5: defense are both solidly in the mid table of this

1183
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 5: of Syria, and so my projection only has them at

1184
00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:37,279
Speaker 5: about a one point two underdog, and I get a

1185
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 5: one point five with a little.

1186
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:38,799
Speaker 4: Bit of juice.

1187
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 5: I'm happy to take that. I just do not trust

1188
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:43,880
Speaker 5: them to get margin. And when Udinessei blows it and

1189
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 5: loses late, they're probably only lose by one, so you

1190
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:48,320
Speaker 5: still catch your bet because they will blow it.

1191
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 4: That's just a given with this team.

1192
00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 3: BJ take us to Syria. Ah, and then neither Anthony

1193
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:56,239
Speaker 3: nor I have anything for league. Oh, so we'll just

1194
00:52:56,280 --> 00:52:58,120
Speaker 3: both go on mute and let you take us from

1195
00:52:58,239 --> 00:52:59,200
Speaker 3: Italy to France. Here.

1196
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:02,279
Speaker 2: Careful with Udenesse because I backed him this past week

1197
00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:05,120
Speaker 2: and they gave up six goals to Adelanta. But we're

1198
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:08,480
Speaker 2: gonna go with Ciswolow plus one twenty five against Verona.

1199
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:11,399
Speaker 2: Ciswollow is red hot right now, unbeaten in their last

1200
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:14,840
Speaker 2: nine matches with their offense carrying them. They've created a

1201
00:53:14,920 --> 00:53:18,880
Speaker 2: whopping fifteen point four expected goals in those nine matches,

1202
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:21,840
Speaker 2: including a four point one expected goals this past Sunday

1203
00:53:21,880 --> 00:53:25,080
Speaker 2: against Empoli. In fact, so swollow in their last two

1204
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:27,719
Speaker 2: matches since they came back from the break six big

1205
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:30,960
Speaker 2: scoring chances. So going up against a Verona defense that

1206
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:33,759
Speaker 2: has only kept two clean sheets all season long, I

1207
00:53:33,760 --> 00:53:35,880
Speaker 2: think is a fantastic match up for their offense and

1208
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:38,480
Speaker 2: Anthony already mentioned and let's talk about it, how overrated

1209
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:41,240
Speaker 2: this Verona attack it is. They have poured in thirty

1210
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:44,200
Speaker 2: seven goals this season off of twenty eight point seven

1211
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:48,480
Speaker 2: expected in our fourteenth in big scoring chances, So offensive

1212
00:53:48,520 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 2: regression is coming, and it might come in this match

1213
00:53:51,080 --> 00:53:54,480
Speaker 2: against the against a siswollow defense that is fifth in

1214
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:57,320
Speaker 2: big scoring chances allowed. The big thing for Verona and

1215
00:53:57,440 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 2: why they've been so successful, especially against the smaller side,

1216
00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:03,359
Speaker 2: is they're a very good pressing team. Their top five

1217
00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:07,240
Speaker 2: and passes per defensive action, pressure success rate and ball recoveries. However,

1218
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:10,480
Speaker 2: so Swallow is top five in both pressure success rate

1219
00:54:10,600 --> 00:54:13,600
Speaker 2: and ball recoveries allowed. So it's gonna be very difficult

1220
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:15,960
Speaker 2: for Verona, who is used to winning the ball in

1221
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:18,320
Speaker 2: the middle of the pitch and getting it going forward. Finally,

1222
00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 2: to swallow much better at home than they are on

1223
00:54:20,560 --> 00:54:22,720
Speaker 2: the road plus three point nine, expect a gold differential

1224
00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:25,839
Speaker 2: at home versus minus two point six on the road.

1225
00:54:26,280 --> 00:54:28,879
Speaker 2: I have to swallow projected at minus one oh five,

1226
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:31,440
Speaker 2: so I like the value on them at plus one

1227
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:33,719
Speaker 2: twenty five to grab all three points at home. And

1228
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:38,200
Speaker 2: then let's move over to France and let's take lens

1229
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 2: plus one twenty on the road against st Etienne. I

1230
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:46,279
Speaker 2: hope I pronounced that correctly, Anthony Atien. I get that

1231
00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 2: they are undervalued club minus twenty three actual differential, but

1232
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:52,960
Speaker 2: only a minus ten point one expected gold differential.

1233
00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:55,719
Speaker 1: But I think the market is kind of overvaluing them

1234
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:56,560
Speaker 1: in this spot.

1235
00:54:56,920 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 2: Even though they've been so bad, things have really just gone.

1236
00:54:59,800 --> 00:55:00,719
Speaker 1: Back to worse for them.

1237
00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:03,400
Speaker 2: Their last five matches in League On, they've lost all

1238
00:55:03,480 --> 00:55:05,800
Speaker 2: five by a combined score of twelve to one, and

1239
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:08,600
Speaker 2: in those five matches they have created zero bing scoring

1240
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 2: chances but conceded twelve. In addition, Antien is currently without

1241
00:55:13,080 --> 00:55:15,400
Speaker 2: five starters who are all at the Africa Cup of Nations,

1242
00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:18,839
Speaker 2: including their top striker Kaziri, who has created twenty five

1243
00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:22,799
Speaker 2: percent of their expected goals this season. If Antien has

1244
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:26,080
Speaker 2: one positive on the season is that they are one

1245
00:55:26,080 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 2: of the best pressing teams in League On. Their their

1246
00:55:28,560 --> 00:55:31,480
Speaker 2: fourth and passes per defensive action, third in pressure success

1247
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:34,319
Speaker 2: rate and second in ball recoveries. However, Lens is top

1248
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:37,239
Speaker 2: five against the press this season, so it's not a

1249
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:39,840
Speaker 2: great matchup for them. I've talked about Lens at length before,

1250
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 2: one of the best offenses in League On, top five

1251
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:46,200
Speaker 2: in every single offensive category, including averaging one point four

1252
00:55:46,200 --> 00:55:49,000
Speaker 2: to seven non penalty expected goals per match, and they

1253
00:55:49,080 --> 00:55:52,600
Speaker 2: are creating one point five to four expected goals per

1254
00:55:52,640 --> 00:55:54,880
Speaker 2: match on the road. That's second best in League on

1255
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:58,279
Speaker 2: behind only PSG. I have Lens projected at minus one

1256
00:55:58,320 --> 00:56:00,919
Speaker 2: oh nine, so I like them plus twenty to grab

1257
00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:01,560
Speaker 2: all three points.

1258
00:56:02,160 --> 00:56:05,799
Speaker 3: Now on to our favorite underdogs for the weekend. As usual,

1259
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:07,960
Speaker 3: I tell you that these bets are not for the

1260
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:10,160
Speaker 3: faint of heart and to tread lightly because they are

1261
00:56:10,200 --> 00:56:13,000
Speaker 3: underdogs for a reason, and that is especially true with mine.

1262
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:16,640
Speaker 3: Brentford Baby plus eight point fifty. The Bees a big

1263
00:56:16,760 --> 00:56:20,400
Speaker 3: price to go against Liverpool at anfield. Liverpool is going

1264
00:56:20,440 --> 00:56:22,680
Speaker 3: to be without Mosala, They're gonna be without Saudi Omane,

1265
00:56:23,160 --> 00:56:25,439
Speaker 3: and they're taking on a defense that should be able

1266
00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:29,600
Speaker 3: to hang with a depleted Liverpool offense. Brentford is six

1267
00:56:29,719 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 3: and non penalty expected goals allowed, fifth in shots per

1268
00:56:32,200 --> 00:56:34,840
Speaker 3: ninety allowed, and I know that their home road splits

1269
00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:38,239
Speaker 3: aren't great. However, they have shown the ability to hang

1270
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:42,719
Speaker 3: with good teams all season long. They held Manchester City

1271
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 3: to one point oh two expected goals in a one

1272
00:56:45,080 --> 00:56:48,640
Speaker 3: nil loss, They hung with Chelsea lost one nil and

1273
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:51,880
Speaker 3: only allowed point two five expected goals to the Blues,

1274
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:55,359
Speaker 3: and then they beat Liverpool onexpected goals uh two point

1275
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:57,520
Speaker 3: nine to four to two points two six in a

1276
00:56:57,560 --> 00:57:00,520
Speaker 3: three to three draw in the reverse fixture. I know

1277
00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:03,280
Speaker 3: it's unlikely. I know it's a kind of a scary

1278
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:07,799
Speaker 3: proposition to go against Liverpool, especially after Brentford's performance against

1279
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:09,960
Speaker 3: Southampton over the week, But I think you're getting a

1280
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,320
Speaker 3: great number here, eight and a half to one on

1281
00:57:12,440 --> 00:57:14,239
Speaker 3: a good team and a team that profiles as a

1282
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:18,160
Speaker 3: strong underdog. Anthony, who is your favorite pooch? Yeah?

1283
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:20,720
Speaker 4: Once again, shout out to Wolves for last week's victory.

1284
00:57:21,200 --> 00:57:22,840
Speaker 5: But this week I'm going to one of my other

1285
00:57:22,880 --> 00:57:25,720
Speaker 5: favorite underdogs to back and it's Atalanta plus two to

1286
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:29,640
Speaker 5: ten against inter Milan. Inter Milan has won nine consecutive

1287
00:57:29,720 --> 00:57:33,160
Speaker 5: games against opponents in Italy, so that's eight straight wins

1288
00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:36,760
Speaker 5: in Syria. They have taken total control of the title race.

1289
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:39,040
Speaker 5: They are going to win the title. They also won

1290
00:57:39,120 --> 00:57:42,680
Speaker 5: the Super Cup match against Juventus on Wednesday with a

1291
00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:45,400
Speaker 5: goal in stoppage time of extra time one hundred and

1292
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:49,160
Speaker 5: twentieth minute Alexis Sanchez and look, I understand they're very

1293
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:51,320
Speaker 5: good and they're the better side here, but they are

1294
00:57:51,320 --> 00:57:54,280
Speaker 5: an overvalued road favorite against Adelanta team that has been

1295
00:57:54,320 --> 00:57:58,320
Speaker 5: absolutely trucking opponents of late a dominant win over Venezia

1296
00:57:58,400 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 5: in the Super Cup match, they got an.

1297
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:01,600
Speaker 4: Unlucky drawways Genowa.

1298
00:58:01,720 --> 00:58:05,760
Speaker 5: Genowa didn't register any expected goals in that match, and

1299
00:58:05,960 --> 00:58:08,040
Speaker 5: they had a six to two dominant win against UTTERNESSI

1300
00:58:08,120 --> 00:58:10,920
Speaker 5: as well, So Adlanta is playing well. They're getting a

1301
00:58:11,000 --> 00:58:13,480
Speaker 5: home spot here. Also a rematch of a game that

1302
00:58:13,560 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 5: was probably the game of the year in Syria, at

1303
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:17,360
Speaker 5: least one of them. It was a two to two thriller.

1304
00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:20,479
Speaker 5: Interclosed minus one ten in that game. They're now plus

1305
00:58:20,600 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 5: one thirty one thirty five on the road. That's not

1306
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:25,000
Speaker 5: enough of an adjustment. I understand we upgraded inter but

1307
00:58:25,080 --> 00:58:27,000
Speaker 5: the market's just showing them too much respect off of

1308
00:58:27,040 --> 00:58:29,400
Speaker 5: all those straight wins. So I like Atlanta plus two

1309
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:30,360
Speaker 5: ten at home and.

1310
00:58:30,440 --> 00:58:31,720
Speaker 3: BJA your favorite underdog.

1311
00:58:32,040 --> 00:58:35,360
Speaker 2: Well, Michael, I have my own very personal game of

1312
00:58:35,440 --> 00:58:40,240
Speaker 2: the year in France this weekend. Marseille is taken on Lil.

1313
00:58:41,120 --> 00:58:45,600
Speaker 2: There is no reason in the world why Marseille should

1314
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:48,640
Speaker 2: be a favorite in this match. Let's first start with

1315
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:54,680
Speaker 2: expected gold differential. Marseille is overperforming yet again, plus twelve

1316
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:58,760
Speaker 2: actual goal differential, only a plus five point five expected

1317
00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:02,000
Speaker 2: goldifferential well, Lill, I feel like a broken record talking

1318
00:59:02,040 --> 00:59:04,120
Speaker 2: about them every single week, but I'm gonna do it again.

1319
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:07,200
Speaker 2: They have an even actual goal differential, but a plus

1320
00:59:07,400 --> 00:59:11,760
Speaker 2: nine point two expected goal differential. Sure, Marseille won won

1321
00:59:11,840 --> 00:59:14,960
Speaker 2: nothing Let's last Friday against Bordeaux and created two point

1322
00:59:15,040 --> 00:59:19,040
Speaker 2: two expected goals, but for some reason, League un allowed

1323
00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:22,040
Speaker 2: this match to go on with Bordeaux having twenty guys

1324
00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:25,600
Speaker 2: out due to COVID. Even the Bordeaux fans were protesting

1325
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:28,160
Speaker 2: outside the stadium before the match, So now this is

1326
00:59:28,200 --> 00:59:30,840
Speaker 2: like the third time it's happened this season where Marseille

1327
00:59:30,880 --> 00:59:34,280
Speaker 2: has been clashing with fans for whatever reason. Marseille, if

1328
00:59:34,280 --> 00:59:36,440
Speaker 2: you look at actual goals, they're the number one defense

1329
00:59:36,480 --> 00:59:39,720
Speaker 2: in France. They've only allowed fifteen goals in nineteen matches.

1330
00:59:39,760 --> 00:59:42,680
Speaker 2: That's great, right, Well, they've conceded twenty two point one

1331
00:59:43,200 --> 00:59:46,880
Speaker 2: expected goals, so they're gonna defensive aggressions coming on the

1332
00:59:46,920 --> 00:59:51,600
Speaker 2: flip side, Lil has conceded twenty six actual goals but

1333
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:55,360
Speaker 2: only nineteen expectacles and that's the best mark in France.

1334
00:59:55,400 --> 00:59:58,560
Speaker 2: When these two teams met earlier in the season, Low

1335
00:59:58,600 --> 01:00:02,480
Speaker 2: completely dominated them nothing win with a brace from Jonathan David,

1336
01:00:02,520 --> 01:00:06,160
Speaker 2: who should be returning from COVID for this match. Lil

1337
01:00:06,200 --> 01:00:09,440
Speaker 2: one unexpected goles, two point two, two point six. They

1338
01:00:09,480 --> 01:00:11,440
Speaker 2: had thirty three touches in the penalty area compared to

1339
01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:14,200
Speaker 2: only eighteen from Marseille. Marseille is also gonna be without

1340
01:00:14,240 --> 01:00:17,520
Speaker 2: one of their young strikers, Bamba Diang, who's with Senegal

1341
01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:19,720
Speaker 2: with the Africa Cup of Nations. He's created the second

1342
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:22,520
Speaker 2: most expected goals on the team, behind Dimitri Paiett. I

1343
01:00:22,640 --> 01:00:25,680
Speaker 2: have this match projected right out of Pickham. It's slight

1344
01:00:25,800 --> 01:00:30,040
Speaker 2: favorite to Lil so getting them at over two to one.

1345
01:00:30,160 --> 01:00:32,520
Speaker 2: Currently I believe at plus two to fifteen, I think

1346
01:00:32,600 --> 01:00:36,040
Speaker 2: is a fantastic price. This Marseille team, I hate them.

1347
01:00:36,520 --> 01:00:41,640
Speaker 2: They continue to overperform and somehow get results. So this

1348
01:00:41,800 --> 01:00:45,200
Speaker 2: is my own personal game of the year. Lil plus

1349
01:00:45,280 --> 01:00:46,200
Speaker 2: two to fifteen.

1350
01:00:46,640 --> 01:00:51,600
Speaker 3: Brentford, Adelanta and Lil parlay. All three those teams together

1351
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:55,000
Speaker 3: ninety two to one, ninety two to one. Always nice.

1352
01:00:55,240 --> 01:00:57,840
Speaker 3: All right. We will wrap up the show with our

1353
01:00:57,840 --> 01:01:01,160
Speaker 3: favorite bets for the Premier League this weekend. BJ will

1354
01:01:01,200 --> 01:01:03,560
Speaker 3: go right back to you. What is your favorite EPL

1355
01:01:03,680 --> 01:01:05,000
Speaker 3: bet this weekend?

1356
01:01:05,440 --> 01:01:08,320
Speaker 2: Arsenal Tottenham over two and a half goals at even money.

1357
01:01:08,440 --> 01:01:11,280
Speaker 2: What you're getting here is you're getting the third and

1358
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:15,560
Speaker 2: fourth best offenses since Antonio Conte took over at Tottenham,

1359
01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:18,600
Speaker 2: Tottenham averaging close to two expected goals for match, Arsenal

1360
01:01:18,920 --> 01:01:22,320
Speaker 2: around one point nine. You also have an Arsenal midfield

1361
01:01:22,400 --> 01:01:26,120
Speaker 2: that's completely depleted with with Thomas Party and Onny off

1362
01:01:26,160 --> 01:01:30,000
Speaker 2: to Africa Cup of Nations, with Granted Shaka out injured,

1363
01:01:30,160 --> 01:01:31,960
Speaker 2: they're going to be have to potentially have to move

1364
01:01:32,000 --> 01:01:35,560
Speaker 2: Martin Odegard back to a central, more central midfield position.

1365
01:01:35,720 --> 01:01:39,840
Speaker 2: But the emergence of Gabrielle Martinelli for Arsenal has completely

1366
01:01:39,880 --> 01:01:43,000
Speaker 2: revitalized them. He's scored four goals in his last eight

1367
01:01:43,120 --> 01:01:45,720
Speaker 2: matches and has a point four to six expected goal

1368
01:01:45,720 --> 01:01:48,240
Speaker 2: per ninety minute scoring rate. Toddham, on the other hand,

1369
01:01:48,840 --> 01:01:51,000
Speaker 2: there hasn't been a match where they've been held under

1370
01:01:51,040 --> 01:01:53,400
Speaker 2: one and a half expected goals since Conte took over.

1371
01:01:54,160 --> 01:01:56,880
Speaker 2: I love how both of these offenses are playing. This

1372
01:01:57,000 --> 01:01:59,400
Speaker 2: is a huge North London Darby. Both teams have to

1373
01:01:59,480 --> 01:02:01,520
Speaker 2: go for this. I have two point eighty five goals

1374
01:02:01,560 --> 01:02:03,720
Speaker 2: projected for it, so I love over two and a

1375
01:02:03,720 --> 01:02:04,720
Speaker 2: half goals at even money.

1376
01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:07,560
Speaker 3: For me, I will take Watford plus two to fifty

1377
01:02:07,600 --> 01:02:11,560
Speaker 3: five traveling to Newcastle Saturday at ten am Eastern. And

1378
01:02:11,640 --> 01:02:13,760
Speaker 3: you got to just embrace the chaos with this Watford team.

1379
01:02:13,800 --> 01:02:15,480
Speaker 3: They give up a ton, but they do have the

1380
01:02:15,520 --> 01:02:19,280
Speaker 3: ability to create offense here and there, and they can

1381
01:02:19,400 --> 01:02:21,920
Speaker 3: find the back of the net. Very very few of

1382
01:02:22,000 --> 01:02:24,880
Speaker 3: their games will feature either team with a zero. None

1383
01:02:24,880 --> 01:02:27,840
Speaker 3: of their games will feature Watford posting a zero. But

1384
01:02:28,360 --> 01:02:31,640
Speaker 3: this Newcastle defense is terrible, and I trust the Watford

1385
01:02:31,880 --> 01:02:34,160
Speaker 3: offense to be able to score at least once and

1386
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:38,200
Speaker 3: then hopefully hold on. But I think you're looking at

1387
01:02:38,240 --> 01:02:40,919
Speaker 3: a team that should be able to punish a really,

1388
01:02:40,960 --> 01:02:44,240
Speaker 3: really bad defense here in a huge relegation battle. And

1389
01:02:44,840 --> 01:02:47,560
Speaker 3: there were some encouraging signs from Watford against Tottenham in

1390
01:02:47,560 --> 01:02:49,720
Speaker 3: their last Premier League match. They held Tottenham to one

1391
01:02:49,800 --> 01:02:53,240
Speaker 3: goal and Tottenham created nearly two expected goals. But that

1392
01:02:53,520 --> 01:02:55,160
Speaker 3: was an improvement over what we've been seeing from the

1393
01:02:55,200 --> 01:02:58,160
Speaker 3: Hornets lately. So give me Watford, give me the Hornets

1394
01:02:58,520 --> 01:03:00,360
Speaker 3: in a good spot. I will always take plus two

1395
01:03:00,400 --> 01:03:03,120
Speaker 3: fifty five to go against this Newcastle team right now.

1396
01:03:03,160 --> 01:03:05,920
Speaker 3: They're terrible, Anthony, it's up to you.

1397
01:03:06,040 --> 01:03:08,680
Speaker 5: To wrap up the show, Norwich and Everton both teams

1398
01:03:08,680 --> 01:03:10,960
Speaker 5: to score. Yes is minus one twenty. You will not

1399
01:03:11,120 --> 01:03:14,320
Speaker 5: find a better spot to back Norwich than this one

1400
01:03:14,960 --> 01:03:18,280
Speaker 5: at home. They've had an embarrassing run of matches lately.

1401
01:03:18,360 --> 01:03:21,400
Speaker 5: They've looked completely dead, but they have not scored in

1402
01:03:21,440 --> 01:03:24,880
Speaker 5: their last five matches, despite creating a little over four

1403
01:03:25,000 --> 01:03:27,840
Speaker 5: expected goals in those matches. When you think about it,

1404
01:03:28,480 --> 01:03:30,800
Speaker 5: Everton is getting a lot of their attacking pieces back,

1405
01:03:31,320 --> 01:03:34,800
Speaker 5: but their defense, especially away from home, has been very mediocre,

1406
01:03:35,160 --> 01:03:37,880
Speaker 5: especially when you consider their defense in even game states

1407
01:03:38,000 --> 01:03:39,680
Speaker 5: has been among one of the worst in the entire

1408
01:03:39,760 --> 01:03:42,080
Speaker 5: Premier League. They've also been one of the worst when

1409
01:03:42,080 --> 01:03:44,200
Speaker 5: they're playing with a lead in terms of expected goal

1410
01:03:44,280 --> 01:03:47,880
Speaker 5: difference and expected goals allowed. So I'm not expecting them

1411
01:03:48,280 --> 01:03:50,040
Speaker 5: to not score here. I think they will get one

1412
01:03:50,160 --> 01:03:52,240
Speaker 5: or two. But I also think this is the time

1413
01:03:52,280 --> 01:03:54,360
Speaker 5: for Norwich to finally get on the board and cash

1414
01:03:54,480 --> 01:03:56,240
Speaker 5: Both teams to score ticket. It's a bit of a

1415
01:03:56,280 --> 01:03:58,720
Speaker 5: dead cat bound spot, but I think the Canaries get

1416
01:03:58,760 --> 01:04:01,200
Speaker 5: on the board and keep this game somewhat competitive.

1417
01:04:01,840 --> 01:04:04,400
Speaker 3: All right, that I'll do it for this episode of

1418
01:04:04,600 --> 01:04:06,959
Speaker 3: Wonder Goal. Hopefully we get all ten of these Premier

1419
01:04:07,040 --> 01:04:09,360
Speaker 3: League games in this weekend, and then we will see

1420
01:04:09,400 --> 01:04:11,440
Speaker 3: you on the other side of the weekend on Monday

1421
01:04:11,480 --> 01:04:14,680
Speaker 3: morning to preview some makeup games and among other things.

1422
01:04:14,760 --> 01:04:17,600
Speaker 3: So for Anthony Dabundo, b J Cunningham, I'm Michael Leba.

1423
01:04:17,840 --> 01:04:18,600
Speaker 3: Thank you for listening.