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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris,

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Speaker 1: joined by Paul mcbrair. It's super Bowl Week, which also

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Speaker 1: means it's Phoenix Open Week for the PGA Tour. Somehow,

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Speaker 1: it seems fitting that these two events coincide, since both

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Speaker 1: are as much about parties as they are about sport.

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Speaker 1: The Waste Management Phoenix Open is unquestionably the tour's most

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Speaker 1: alcohol soaked event, and the rowdiness you can go a

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Speaker 1: little over the top at times, but hey, I don't

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Speaker 1: want to sound like a killjoy. It's a really fun

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Speaker 1: tournament played on a fun course and it is a

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Speaker 1: much more entertaining lead in to the super Bowl on

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Speaker 1: Sunday than all of the pregame shows. Now, on today's show,

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Speaker 1: we will start with a quick recap of the AT

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Speaker 1: and T Pebble Beach Pro Am. Then we'll give you

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Speaker 1: a full betting preview of the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

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Speaker 1: We'll share our early betting cards with you, and then

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Speaker 1: we will make our weekly one and done picks at

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Speaker 1: the end of the show. Now, bet three sixty five

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Speaker 1: Only must be president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio or Virginia. Gambling problem call

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or if you live in Iowa

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off. Terms and conditions apply. Rory

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Speaker 1: McElroy was playing his first PGA Tour event of twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five, and he cruised to a two shot victory

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Speaker 1: over one of our favorite bets of last week, bo

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Speaker 1: Shane Lowry. McElroy finished twenty one under par. He played

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Speaker 1: fabulously over his four days on the Monterey Peninsula, aside

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Speaker 1: from a shaky back nine and Friday at Pebble Beach,

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Speaker 1: but after a six hole stretch in which he was

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Speaker 1: four overpar. Rory finished his second round by holding a

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Speaker 1: twenty five foot eagle putt on the part five eighteenth

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Speaker 1: that gave him a seventy for the round and a

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Speaker 1: whole lot of momentum going into the weekend. Sepstraca started

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Speaker 1: the tournament with a pair of sixty fives, but kind

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Speaker 1: of lost his mojo on the weekend. There were some

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Speaker 1: other good players in contention Lowry, Tom Kim, Russell, Henley,

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Speaker 1: Justin Rose, but it was Rory who prevailed two other

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Speaker 1: things to mention before I throw it over to you,

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Speaker 1: bow for your thoughts on the at and T Pebble

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Speaker 1: Beach pro Am number one. Utterly ridiculous to have the

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Speaker 1: coverage gap in the switchover from the Golf Channel to

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Speaker 1: CBS on Sunday. A lot of viewers were understandably angry

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Speaker 1: that they did not get to see the leaders playing

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Speaker 1: the short par three seventh hole at Pebble Beach, one

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Speaker 1: of the most iconic holes in American golf. It's just

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Speaker 1: utterly absurd that there would be no TV coverage of

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Speaker 1: the tournament leaders playing a classic hole on Sunday afternoon.

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Speaker 1: Silly and inexcusable. Number two. Tom Kim can be such

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Speaker 1: a fun young player. He's fiery, he's wildly talented. He

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Speaker 1: should be the sort of player who fans get excited

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Speaker 1: about watching. But Tom Kim is a preposterously slow player,

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Speaker 1: and it's starting to become a problem for the PGA Tour.

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Speaker 1: Slow play generally is a problem for the tour, but

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Speaker 1: Tom Kim certainly he might not be the only player

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Speaker 1: guilty of it. But there were a lot of people

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Speaker 1: upset with Kim yesterday based on the reactions I saw

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Speaker 1: on Twitter. What were your thoughts on the AT and

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Speaker 1: T Pebble Beach pro am?

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Speaker 2: Right off the top, great job to Rory. What a

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Speaker 2: charge on Sunday to basically just take the whole tournament

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Speaker 2: by storm on Sunday when the weather was decent, the

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Speaker 2: wind was up, people were struggling to score and make birdies.

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Speaker 2: But Rory, I think he made five or six eagles

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Speaker 2: that week, including an ace on Thursday. Lowry also had

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Speaker 2: an ace on Thursday. It was just a great time

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Speaker 2: and Lowry's ace was on number seve, which was why

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Speaker 2: everybody in the world was excited to see the lead

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Speaker 2: group with Lowry and Rory and I believe it was

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Speaker 2: Sepstraka play play the seventh hole at Pebble Beach. It's

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Speaker 2: a chip, it's basically a pitch shot wedge. It's one

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Speaker 2: hundred and five yards downhill forty feet, so you're not

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Speaker 2: hitting him a full wedge into this hole, but the

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Speaker 2: wind plays a factor. It's a humongously momentous hole on

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Speaker 2: this golf course because you can either make a two

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Speaker 2: or you can you can end up floating away into

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Speaker 2: the rough for a bunker on with the wind and

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Speaker 2: make a four or five. And we didn't get to

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Speaker 2: see it. That's the PGA Tour's fault. The broadcast is awful.

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Speaker 2: The PGA Tour has done nothing in six years to

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Speaker 2: fix their broadcast for the for the golf it wasn't

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Speaker 2: on Golf Channel. They went to the Bahrain Championship replay

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Speaker 2: from earlier in the day and then they went they

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Speaker 2: tossed it over to CBS, who still had a University

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Speaker 2: of Illinois versus I believe, I don't even remember it

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Speaker 2: was some other big time team. Yeah, nobody cares. Even

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Speaker 2: Ohio State basketball fans don't care about their basketball team.

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Speaker 2: When the Pebble Beach Pro Am is on final round,

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Speaker 2: the leaders are on the seventy, and nobody got to

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Speaker 2: see it because the PGA Tour has a coverage problem,

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Speaker 2: and that ties in with me disagreeing with you on

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Speaker 2: the slow play issue, because I don't think that pros

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Speaker 2: should have to worry about pace of play period. They're

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Speaker 2: playing for gobs and gobs of money, especially in a

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Speaker 2: signature event, and it's up to the broadcast to only

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Speaker 2: show the parts that are important. You don't need to

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Speaker 2: see how long Tom Kim is toiling over a fairway

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Speaker 2: shot on number six when he's just gonna spray it

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Speaker 2: into the hazard into the Pacific Ocean. We don't need

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Speaker 2: to see how long he's frozen over the ball on

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Speaker 2: a putt to line up a putt. Just show us

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Speaker 2: what we want, which is the shots. They got thirty

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Speaker 2: million commercials. You have all this crap that we don't

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Speaker 2: want to watch, and that seems to be what the

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Speaker 2: PGA Tour wants to show. If it is just junk

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Speaker 2: after junk after junk, bringing up stuff that doesn't matter,

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Speaker 2: like pace of play on the Pro Tour, It's like,

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Speaker 2: I don't care if they're playing for six and a

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Speaker 2: half hours. I want to see the shots that they take,

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Speaker 2: and whether it's live or on a tape delay, I

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Speaker 2: don't care. I just want to see more shots. And

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Speaker 2: they couldn't give it to us that six years in

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Speaker 2: the running, they've done the same exact thing on Sunday

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Speaker 2: of the of the Pebble Beach Pro Am where the

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Speaker 2: lead group has been off TV completely for six, seven

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Speaker 2: and eight, which is by far the best three hole

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Speaker 2: stretch in the world of golf. Like we're talking Amen

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Speaker 2: quarter status where guess what, the Masters never misses Amen corner.

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Speaker 2: They inundate us with Amen corner. They have a special

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Speaker 2: feed for Amen corner, and Pebble Beach gets none of

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Speaker 2: it on TV. I'm absolutely livid with that because it's

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Speaker 2: been the same problem as long as anybody can remember,

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Speaker 2: and they've done nothing to fix it. They've even made

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Speaker 2: it worse. I don't care if Tom Kim takes seven

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Speaker 2: hours to play his final round and his group was

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Speaker 2: on the clock, I don't care. I just want to

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Speaker 2: see more shots, even if they're just like hey from earlier,

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Speaker 2: Tom Kim took seven years to put a six foot

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Speaker 2: or and he missed or he took six years to

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Speaker 2: hit his approach on six, and he hit it into

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Speaker 2: the ocean. I don't care. I just want to see

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Speaker 2: the shots. It's unbelievable. The PGA Tour is garbage on

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Speaker 2: TV and they've done nothing to fix it.

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Speaker 1: Totally agree with the TV coverage. I'm not so mad

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Speaker 1: that Tom Kim stood behind his ball lining up the

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Speaker 1: shot for forty three seconds, or stood over the ball

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Speaker 1: for twenty three seconds, or whatever it was. But I

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Speaker 1: thought it was pretty outrageous that he hit his ball

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Speaker 1: into the ocean on eighteen. His caddy told him it

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Speaker 1: was gone and said he should hit a provisional. Chose

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Speaker 1: not to hit a provisional, walk up to the ball,

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Speaker 1: look for it. Then I have to walk all the

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Speaker 1: way back because that messes up the leaders behind him.

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Speaker 1: You know, I'm sure there were probably some frowny faces

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Speaker 1: in the locker room over that.

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Speaker 2: I honestly don't think most of these pros actually care.

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Speaker 2: Like you got guys that play really fast, you got

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Speaker 2: guys that play really slow. It's been like every level

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Speaker 2: of competitive golf, you have different pace of play, and

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Speaker 2: the slow golfers never bothered me, even though I play

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Speaker 2: faster than Ludvig Oberg got there. I barely take a

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Speaker 2: practice swing. I'm just out there playing ready golf, like

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Speaker 2: that's what I was always taught. But not everybody was

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Speaker 2: taught ready golf. They were taught to take your time

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Speaker 2: and make a shot. And so I honestly am not

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Speaker 2: bothered by slow play. It's it's just especially on the

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Speaker 2: Pro Tour, it shouldn't be an issue. It's just a

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Speaker 2: matter of if it's on TV. Not everything needs to

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Speaker 2: be on TV. Like they cut away to so many

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Speaker 2: people punching each other on the range. Hey, how's the

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Speaker 2: family Like, we don't care. Brought to you by Mass Card.

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Speaker 1: You may be right that no one on the PGA

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Speaker 1: Tour cares about slow play, or at least now that

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Speaker 1: Brooks Kaprica is on the Lift Tour. That's curz. I

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Speaker 1: know Brooksy was not a big fan of a slow play.

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Speaker 1: Now we will get to the odds for the Waste

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Speaker 1: Management Phoenix Open in just a moment, but first.

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Speaker 2: Download the free Betting pros app for iOS and Android.

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Speaker 2: Pros Premium by downloading the app and activating your trial

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Speaker 2: on the upgrade screen.

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Speaker 1: After a small field, no cut tournament at Pebble Beach

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Speaker 1: last week, the Waste Management Phoenix Open will be a

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Speaker 1: standard full field event. As always, the Phoenix Open will

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Speaker 1: be played at TPC Scottsdale. It's a par seventy one,

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Speaker 1: measuring seven thousand, two hundred and sixty one yards. It's

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Speaker 1: an interesting course that in that it doesn't really seem

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Speaker 1: to heavily favor certain types of players. Long hitters and

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Speaker 1: short hitters alike have won here over the years. TPC

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Speaker 1: Scottsdale often plays firm and fast, so being a good

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Speaker 1: scrambler doesn't hurt. There are three par fives at TPC

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Speaker 1: Scottsdale and they're all between five hundred and fifteen five

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixty yards. Very gettable in two shots, so

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Speaker 1: par five scoring is critical here. The par fours are

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Speaker 1: a nice mix of longer and shorter holes. TPC Scottsdale's

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Speaker 1: kind of horses for courses type of venue. Bo track

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Speaker 1: records are pretty important here. A lot of players thrive

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Speaker 1: at TPC Scottsdale and show up on the leaderboard year

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Speaker 1: after year, but bo, I'm kind of burying the lead here.

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Speaker 1: The defining element of this houset course is its massive crowds.

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Speaker 1: The waste management Phoenix Upen draws just throngs huge galleries,

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Speaker 1: sometimes upwards of two hundred thousand people, and these are loud,

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Speaker 1: boisterous galleries, especially on the famous par three sixteenth hole

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Speaker 1: with its stadium set up. It's only one hundred and

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Speaker 1: sixty three yards, but with a crowd that big looking on,

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Speaker 1: it is one of the most pressure packed holes in

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Speaker 1: professional golf. The ability to play under pressure is pretty

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Speaker 1: critical at this event because it's almost like playing in

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Speaker 1: a major. And by the way, that wild scene at

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Speaker 1: the sixteenth hole is part of a great finishing stretch

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Speaker 1: at TPC Scottsdale. The fifteenth hole is a fun, risk

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Speaker 1: reward par five with water down the left side and

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Speaker 1: surrounding the green. Then you've got the chaos of the

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Speaker 1: sixteenth hole. Then the par four seventeenth, a three hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty two yard par four with a drivable green

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Speaker 1: with water to the left of the hole, left to

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Speaker 1: the green, and behind the green. And then finally there's

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Speaker 1: the eighteenth hole, which requires a pinpoint drive overwater in

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Speaker 1: between bunkers. I love the home stretch here bo some

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Speaker 1: recent winners at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Nick Taylor

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Speaker 1: won last year. He opened with the first round score

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Speaker 1: of sixty and eventually finish twenty one under par, beating

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Speaker 1: Charlie Hoffman in a playoff. Scotti Scheffler won in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two and twenty twenty three. He was sixteen under

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, nineteen under and twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 1: Brooks Koepka finished nineteen under par to win in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty one, and Webb Simpson had a late career victory

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Speaker 1: in the Phoenix Open in twenty twenty, finishing seventeen under

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Speaker 1: and beating Tony Fenow in a playoff. The weather forecast

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Speaker 1: for the Phoenix Scottsdale area this week sunny all week,

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Speaker 1: highs ranging from the upper seventies early in the tournament

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Speaker 1: to the lower seventies later in the tournament. Pretty good

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Speaker 1: weather for spectators. Light wins throughout the week, scoring condestion

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Speaker 1: should be good. Bow Your thoughts on TPC Scottsdale, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it is.

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Speaker 2: This tournament's just fun. It's a lot of fun. It

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Speaker 2: reminds me a lot of the Chico State atmosphere when

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Speaker 2: I was in college. Arizona State obviously being next door

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Speaker 2: in Tempe, that's Scottsdale area. February is Scottsdale month. I mean,

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Speaker 2: they've had the super Bowl there various times. They always

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Speaker 2: have the Waste Management Phoenix Open super Bowl Week which

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Speaker 2: invites all the ASU students to get lubricated and fill

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Speaker 2: the galleries, which I mean you said two hundred thousand.

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Speaker 2: I think they've had upwards of half a million before,

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Speaker 2: just on when the super Bowl was in Scottsdale, the

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Speaker 2: throngs of people. And then right after this week we

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Speaker 2: have spring training that starts up for half of Major

249
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Speaker 2: League Baseball in Arizona. Arizona is the place to be

250
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Speaker 2: in February, and it's really kicked off by the Waste

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Speaker 2: Management Phoenix Open. I just love the atmosphere, the ability

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Speaker 2: for the for the Golf Channel and the PGA Tour

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Speaker 2: to maybe show some better TV footage where we actually

254
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Speaker 2: care what people around are looking like it's anytime you

255
00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:47,040
Speaker 2: get a hole in one on sixteen, there's like all

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Speaker 2: sorts of beer bottles being thrown on the green. It's ceremonious,

257
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Speaker 2: it's ridiculous, but it's so much fun, and that's more

258
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Speaker 2: of what golf should be other than what we've been

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Speaker 2: getting every other tournament of the year. They do treat

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Speaker 2: this kind of like a major with TV coverage, which

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Speaker 2: I do appreciate. I just think, yeah, you horses for courses.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned Scotti Scheffler. Yeah, it's gonna be really hard

263
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Speaker 2: to bet against him this week. But yeah, I'm just

264
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Speaker 2: excited because this course doesn't really favor anybody other than

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Speaker 2: the people who seem to like it when they play there.

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Speaker 2: It's it's it's not like you, oh this you need bomber,

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Speaker 2: you need a good short game. No, you just need

268
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Speaker 2: to play golf and be able to play it under

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Speaker 2: a microscope of sorts.

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Speaker 1: Now, let's take a look at the odds for the

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Speaker 1: Waste Management Phoenix Open. We'll start with the favorites. All

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Speaker 1: odds are courtesy of DraftKings As of Monday morning, Scotti Scheffler,

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00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:41,880
Speaker 1: as bo just mentioned, a heavy favorite, checking in at

274
00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:45,200
Speaker 1: three to one. Justin Thomas is eleven to one. Two

275
00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:49,080
Speaker 1: time Phoenix Open winner Hideki Matsuyama sixteen to one. Sung

276
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Speaker 1: JM is twenty to one. Corey Connors also twenty to one.

277
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Speaker 1: Ben On and Tom Kim are both thirty five to one,

278
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Speaker 1: and Sepstraca and Sahithagala are forty to one. Are we

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Speaker 1: once again recommending a live betting only strategy for Scotty

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Speaker 1: Scheffler at those odds? And is there anyone else you

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Speaker 1: liked from among this group? No?

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Speaker 2: And no, I'm actually going to be betting Scotty three

283
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Speaker 2: to one because I do think he has more than

284
00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,240
Speaker 2: a thirty three percent chance of winning this week. He

285
00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:22,280
Speaker 2: looked really good in his first first event at Pebble Beach.

286
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Speaker 2: Didn't win, but he was always kind of lurking nearby

287
00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:28,160
Speaker 2: where he couldn't quite find the rhythm to make a

288
00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:30,720
Speaker 2: bunch of birdies off the tea game was a little erratic,

289
00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,320
Speaker 2: but his iron play was spot on. His short game

290
00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:35,520
Speaker 2: was spot on. He made a lot of birdies on

291
00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:37,640
Speaker 2: Sunday to kind of make you think that maybe there

292
00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:39,880
Speaker 2: was a chance that he could make some noise and

293
00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,480
Speaker 2: push Rory in the group ahead. Of him, but it

294
00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:46,000
Speaker 2: didn't materialize this place is I mean, he's won two

295
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Speaker 2: in the last three years. He's been in contention. Last

296
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Speaker 2: year when he didn't win, Nick Taylor did it was

297
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Speaker 2: because it was when Scotty was in his major putting slump.

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Speaker 2: He was still not too far off. It wasn't like

299
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Speaker 2: Scotty was out of contention last year. I think that

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Speaker 2: three to one is fine for him at this particular event.

301
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Speaker 2: There's very few guys that are really like at this tournament.

302
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Speaker 2: Scotty's very very high perched atop the short list of

303
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Speaker 2: people that I like betting at the Phoenix Open. So

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Speaker 2: three to one and I pretty much start way deeper

305
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Speaker 2: than that for everybody else.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I mentioned that Scotty won here in twenty twenty

307
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Speaker 1: two and twenty twenty three. Terrible showing last year for

308
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Speaker 1: Scotty when he only finished third. Yeah, he was seventh

309
00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:32,280
Speaker 1: here in twenty twenty one. So four straight years of

310
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Speaker 1: finishing seventh or better. Like, I never love betting Scotty

311
00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:37,360
Speaker 1: when the odds get a shortest three to one, but

312
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Speaker 1: bo at an event he loves with no Rory, no

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Speaker 1: Xander Schoffley, no Victor Hovlin, no Colin Morikawa no ludvig Oberg.

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Speaker 1: Three to one does seem like pretty good value.

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Speaker 2: And I will be live betting him too.

316
00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:55,640
Speaker 1: Now, Justin Thomas does seem very much at home amidst

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Speaker 1: the raucous Phoenix Open galleries. JT hasn't won here last

318
00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:06,879
Speaker 1: seven trips to TPC Scott Stell. He has finishes of seventeenth, third, third, thirteenth, eighth,

319
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Speaker 1: fourth and twelfth. Didn't have a great week at Pebble Beach,

320
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,879
Speaker 1: finishing forty eighth, but he was second at the MX

321
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Speaker 1: a few weeks ago. Now, Hideki Matsuyama won back to

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00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:20,280
Speaker 1: back trophies at this event in twenty sixteen in twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 1: He's finished top thirty here in six of the last

324
00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,840
Speaker 1: seven years since those wins, and he opened twenty twenty

325
00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:29,920
Speaker 1: five with a win at the century Man at sixteen

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Speaker 1: to one bow. I do kind of think Hideki's a

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Speaker 1: bargain at that price.

328
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's a pretty good number. I don't hate Hideki.

329
00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,199
Speaker 2: I hate Justin Thomas's number because I don't think he

330
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,320
Speaker 2: has He's done anything to deserve an eleven to one

331
00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,280
Speaker 2: any tournament these days. I have a lot of high

332
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:50,199
Speaker 2: hopes for him this season to turn his luck around,

333
00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,520
Speaker 2: but he's been he's been erratic. He's he's obviously a

334
00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:56,040
Speaker 2: great iron player in the same milk of Scotti Scheffler,

335
00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,720
Speaker 2: but the rest of his game hasn't followed suit and

336
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,119
Speaker 2: I the only thing I worry about with Hideki is

337
00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,720
Speaker 2: his off the tea game has been really erradical, Like

338
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Speaker 2: he's seventy seventh in this field off the tee, and

339
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 2: that's going to be important at Scottsdale. But I mean

340
00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:11,240
Speaker 2: it's sixteen to one. That's a pretty decent number for

341
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,920
Speaker 2: a guy who's easily the third best or probably the

342
00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:19,240
Speaker 2: second best player in this field, just based on recent form.

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Speaker 1: Setting aside my disdain for Tom Kim's pace of play,

344
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,639
Speaker 1: this does seem like a setting where the fiery youngster

345
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:29,160
Speaker 1: could thrive, feeding off the big crowds. He's played here twice,

346
00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:32,160
Speaker 1: finishing seventeenth here last year, and he was in contention

347
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,080
Speaker 1: last weekend at Pebble Beach. I'll mention one more guy

348
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Speaker 1: from the group of favorites. See Heath Thigala does seem

349
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:42,919
Speaker 1: pretty much at home in Scottsdale. He's finished top five

350
00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,639
Speaker 1: here in two of the last three years, although Thinkala

351
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,800
Speaker 1: has finished outside the top thirty five and the four

352
00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,440
Speaker 1: too our events he's played in twenty twenty five. Yeah. Now,

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Speaker 1: before we get to the mid range options.

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Speaker 2: Help shape the Betting Pros podcast, take our quick, easy

355
00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:02,320
Speaker 2: survey at bettingpros dot com and share your feedback to

356
00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 2: help us improve. All it takes is just a minute

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Speaker 2: or two at bettingpros dot com slash survey.

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Speaker 1: Now for the mid range betting options, Rasmus Hoyguard is

359
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:16,240
Speaker 1: forty five to one, Robert McIntyre, Kirk Kidiyama and Jordan

360
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:20,040
Speaker 1: Speith are fifty to one, Max Grazerman and Akshay Battia

361
00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 1: are fifty five to one. At sixty to one, there

362
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:26,520
Speaker 1: is a huge group that includes defending Champaning Taylor, Maverick McNeely,

363
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:31,720
Speaker 1: Matt Fitzpatrick, Luke Clanton, JT post In, Davis Thompson, JJ Spond,

364
00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 1: Cameron Young, Bo Hostler and Wyndham Clark. Minwoo Lee and

365
00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:39,720
Speaker 1: Maxhoma are sixty five to one. Seawou Kim, Ricky Fowler

366
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 1: and Harry Hall are seventy to one, and Sam Stevens

367
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,399
Speaker 1: and Keith Mitchell are seventy five to one. Anyone you

368
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:46,160
Speaker 1: like from this group?

369
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 2: Boh two guys, I'm really going to be liking this week. Obviously,

370
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Speaker 2: Scotty number one in my model, number one in past

371
00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 2: history here, number one in the world. He's going to

372
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:59,040
Speaker 2: get most of my actual money in this in this thing.

373
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Speaker 2: But I'm gonna pake. I'm gonna push a lot of

374
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:05,360
Speaker 2: chips in on laddering Kirk Kitty Yama shout out NorCal

375
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 2: fifty to one. I'm gonna ladder his top five and

376
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,880
Speaker 2: top tens along with it. Plus eight fifty for top five,

377
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 2: plus four hundred for top ten. This guy is a

378
00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,199
Speaker 2: great off the tee player. He's a great long to

379
00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 2: mid approach player, and he's a really decent scrambler. I

380
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:24,000
Speaker 2: don't think that it's out of question to completely su

381
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 2: putting stats for this type of event, because these greens

382
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,399
Speaker 2: are flat, they're not too nuanced. I mean, heck, Scotty

383
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 2: Scheffler has a very long track record of winning here,

384
00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 2: and he's not the greatest putter. Kirk Kitty Yama is

385
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:40,640
Speaker 2: a very similar player, not obviously as good on approach,

386
00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,160
Speaker 2: but we're looking at a guy from t de Green

387
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 2: who's as good as anybody in the world and he's

388
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 2: he's live, He's live here. Fifty to one is insane

389
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 2: for me in this field that's kind of top heavy

390
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 2: with Scotty and a lot of other guys. The other

391
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,120
Speaker 2: one in that same ilk is Luke Clanton sixty to one.

392
00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,240
Speaker 2: His top five number is plus one thousand in his

393
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 2: top ten numbers plus four fifty. Very very talented player.

394
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 2: I think that he's going to have tons of firepower

395
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,240
Speaker 2: to push the top of this leaderboard. Those two guys

396
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,119
Speaker 2: are getting quite a bit of emphasis on my betting slip.

397
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, Kidiyama hasn't been in great form in recent weeks,

398
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 1: but he's finished twenty third and eighth here the last

399
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 1: two years, so he has shown some aptitude for this course. Yeah,

400
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 1: I'll mention one more guy from this group. I agree,

401
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,679
Speaker 1: this is not a group I want to hit too

402
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 1: hard with the bets this week, bo But defending champion

403
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:33,120
Speaker 1: Nick Taylor at sixty to one, a guy who shot

404
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,119
Speaker 1: a sixty on this course last year, a guy who

405
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 1: finished second here two years ago. The guy who's already

406
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:42,439
Speaker 1: won on tour in twenty twenty five, hoisting the trophy

407
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 1: at the Sony Open. Yes please, Yes, what about long

408
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 1: shots bo anyone with odds of eighty to one or

409
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 1: longer who appeals.

410
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 2: To you, well, you know, I'm always looking deep into

411
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 2: these betting slips, especially in a full field event like this.

412
00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:59,440
Speaker 2: With a cut, you get a little more favorable odds

413
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 2: on on your deep shots. Lucas Glover has been playing

414
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 2: really great his Usually he's usually towards the very bottom

415
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 2: of the petting rankings on the PGA Tour, like every

416
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 2: single year. He's great at ball striking and god awful

417
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 2: at putting. He was putting pretty decent except for one

418
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 2: round at Pebble Beach last week. I think his ball

419
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,639
Speaker 2: striking really plays here. Eighty to one for Lucas Glover,

420
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:24,439
Speaker 2: I'm also going to throw a top ten on him

421
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 2: at plus five fifty Gary Woodland horse for the course,

422
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,919
Speaker 2: and I'll note that Charlie Hoffman's also at ninety to

423
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,920
Speaker 2: one and another horse for the course. He's always been

424
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:39,440
Speaker 2: around this place. Everybody at Waste Management loves Charlie Hoffman.

425
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 2: He's the ultimate Scottsdale player. So he and Gary Woodland,

426
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 2: who won here before, albeit a few years ago, they're

427
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 2: both at ninety to one. I'm looking at both of them.

428
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:53,399
Speaker 2: I'm favoring Woodland this week because of recent form. I'm

429
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 2: also gonna throw a plus two to eighty number on

430
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 2: his top twenty. And then my deep, deep shot is

431
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:00,959
Speaker 2: a guy popped up in the top five of my

432
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 2: model and that's Joe Heismith at two hundred to one

433
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 2: and his top twenty numbers at plus four fifty.

434
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 1: Oh wow. Yeah. Charlie Hoffman sponsored by Waste Management, so

435
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 1: he does seem to thrive under. He feels very much

436
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 1: at home here. Billy Horschell is eighty to one. Yeah,

437
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 1: Billy Horschell at eighty to one. He's finished well. He

438
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 1: finished ninth at Pebble Beach, he finished twenty first at

439
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,640
Speaker 1: the Amex, so he's been in good form lately. And

440
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:31,440
Speaker 1: his track record in Phoenix is solid with two top

441
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 1: tens and four top twenty fives over the last ten years.

442
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 1: Daniel Berger four top eleven finishes here in the last

443
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 1: ten years. He's missed the cut in two of the

444
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 1: last three years. But one hundred and ten to one

445
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,879
Speaker 1: seems like a pretty intriguing price. Also, one hundred and

446
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,479
Speaker 1: ten to one bow Michael thorb Biurnce and he is

447
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:51,199
Speaker 1: making his waste management Phoenix Open debut. But that's a

448
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 1: lot of bang for the buck, a very talented young

449
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:57,360
Speaker 1: player at long odds and our guy Jake Nappo two

450
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:01,159
Speaker 1: hundred to one, and I'm told that four over the

451
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 1: weekend the odds had ballooned to four hundred to one.

452
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: I wasn't aware of that, or I might have grabbed

453
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 1: him to win. He finished twenty eighth last year in

454
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 1: his first ever Phoenix Open appearance, and he's finished top

455
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 1: thirty five in each of the last two weeks. So

456
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,159
Speaker 1: let's get to our early betting cards. Who do you

457
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 1: have as of now ball?

458
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,439
Speaker 2: So I have Scotti at plus three hundred and I

459
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 2: will be live betting him, especially if they slip. Last week,

460
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,400
Speaker 2: I threw a little bit on him at plus seven

461
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,879
Speaker 2: hundred as he started with a bogie on Thursday. I

462
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 2: was watching very closely on the live feed in the morning.

463
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 2: I have Kurt Kitty Yama and Luke Clanton ladders outright

464
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 2: and top five and top ten, and then Lucas Glover

465
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 2: eighty to one in a top ten and Gary Woodland

466
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 2: top twenty and also a little bit outright at ninety

467
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 2: to one, and a little bit of Joe's Joe Highsmith

468
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 2: two hundred and one and a top twenty kicker.

469
00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got an outright on Hideki Matsuyama teen to one.

470
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 1: I've got a Tom Kim vibe this week both so

471
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 1: I've got him at thirty five to one to win,

472
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 1: along with the top five at six to one. I'm

473
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,440
Speaker 1: not betting Billy Horschel to win, but I am ladder

474
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 1: betting him for a top five at plus twelve hundred,

475
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 1: a top ten at plus five to fifty, in a

476
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 1: top twenty at plus two fifty. I'm taking Michael Thorbjornsen

477
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 1: at one hundred and ten to one, plus a top

478
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 1: five kicker at eighteen to one. I've got Daniel Berger

479
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 1: for a top ten at plus seven hundred, and I

480
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 1: have Jake Napp for a top five at twenty five

481
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 1: to one in a top ten at eleven to one.

482
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,679
Speaker 1: Now for a one and done competition. Bo took Patrick

483
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 1: Cantley last week. He tied for thirty third, earning ninety

484
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 1: nine thousand dollars. I took Jason Day he tied for thirteenth,

485
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 1: good for three hundred and sixty eight thousand, five hundred

486
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 1: dollars in an elevated event. I picked up some ground

487
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 1: on bow. He has seven hundred and thirty four thousand dollars.

488
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 1: I have five hundred and fifty two thousand dollars. I

489
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 1: pick first this week, and I'm going to take Hideki Matsuyama.

490
00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 1: He's fared so well in this event, and while he

491
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 1: didn't play especially well last week at Pebble Beach, he

492
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 1: DECKI has generally been in pretty good form. Otherwise, what

493
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 1: about you? Who are you taking in the desert this week?

494
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 2: I'm going to take a desert dweller. I'm going to

495
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 2: take Kirk Kittiyama. He resides in Vegas. He's from the

496
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,640
Speaker 2: northern California Chaparral as we call it up there where

497
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 2: it's dry and windy, and so, I mean it makes

498
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 2: sense that he had moved down to Vegas as a

499
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 2: pro tour golfer. So I like Kurt Kittiama this week

500
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,160
Speaker 2: a lot, and I'm going to take him this week.

501
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 1: And that's all for this week's Betting pros PGA podcast.

502
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 1: I'll be out next week, but Bo and guest host

503
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 1: Seth Wolcock will be here with a preview of the

504
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 1: Genesis Invitational until then so long everyone, thanks.

505
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 3: For listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love

506
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,159
Speaker 3: the show, the best freeway to support us is by

507
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:52,040
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508
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,000
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509
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:58,480
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510
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:00,679
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