1 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: China's record breaking droughts is scorched fires breaking out around 2 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 1: London as the Egypt is preparing to host the next 3 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:18,400 Speaker 1: POP Summit in November. With an hour of new pledges, 4 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:24,280 Speaker 1: commitments and prown justice for my people, I won't climate justice. 5 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: We came forward to bear the responsibility of hosting COMP 6 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 1: twenty seven in the five Guinness Climate Treach. Welcome to Zero. 7 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 1: I'm Upshatrati and this is the first of our special 8 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 1: episodes coming from Top twenty seven in Channel Shake Egypt. 9 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:50,240 Speaker 1: Over the next two weeks, we'll be bringing you regular 10 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: updates from the largest climate conference in the world. And 11 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 1: joining me for the first episode is Bloomberg contributing editor 12 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 1: alegra Stratton Hi. Alegra Hi, Now, it's a big Thursday 13 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,400 Speaker 1: at COP twenty seven. What's your experience of COP being 14 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: like so far? Well, it's very different from the COP 15 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 1: twenty six that I worked for the UK government at. 16 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:18,040 Speaker 1: The environment is very different and I think it's importantly different. 17 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 1: In Glasgow. Do you remember how west and cold it 18 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:24,680 Speaker 1: was in two weeks? And also it's the river on 19 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 1: the River Clyde and the relevance of that is that 20 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: it was you know, for a long time the center 21 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: of ship building of a very carbon heavy industry, and 22 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 1: that was a COP that was about mitigation. It was 23 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: about many things, and there were obviously other aspects to it, 24 00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:43,040 Speaker 1: but there was the drive to get countries to sign 25 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 1: up to net zero. Three quarters of the world's countries 26 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: did so, and mitigation was really the push. And now 27 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: here in Charmel Shaik, you are in the desert. It's 28 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: incredibly beautiful. We're very close to mountains, were also very 29 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 1: close to the Red Sea, and there's just much more 30 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 1: of an emphasis on the damage to the natural environment 31 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: and it is an extremely beautiful surrounding. But it is 32 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 1: uncomfortable wondering where the protesters must be. At COP twenty six, 33 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: there were protests and they were valuable and they reminded 34 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: everybody in that conference room and in the plenary sessions 35 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,920 Speaker 1: and in the very airless, windowless rooms. They did remind 36 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:30,080 Speaker 1: people that society cares about this agenda deeply. So they 37 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: had a value. And we've been hearing from different activists 38 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 1: and environmental groups also that they arrived here in Charnel Shaken, 39 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 1: their room rents were raised and they didn't have places 40 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 1: to go, and they had to scramble at last minute 41 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 1: midnight on Saturday night and they're struggling to find places. 42 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 1: So it's also been just logistically difficult for many activists. 43 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 1: So now you were the spokesperson for a COP twenty 44 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 1: six for the UK government said the scene coming out 45 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: of Crop twenty six into now, how have things changed? Well, 46 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 1: how things changed? We have Russia invaded Ukraine and so 47 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: everything changed. You suddenly had the world diplomatic shoulders being 48 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 1: put to the wheel of dealing with a not only 49 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 1: the invasion of Ukraine, but also the effect that had 50 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 1: on gas supplies and energy supplies, with clearly an impact 51 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 1: on the kind of energy where every country is going 52 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 1: to be using to heat its people this winter. That 53 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: might have meant that it was the least auspicious environment 54 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 1: in which to go into a COP and trying to 55 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 1: deal with climate change and trying to change how we 56 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: all use our energy. Actually, amazingly, the IEA, the International 57 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: Energy Agency, the week before COP started, produced a report 58 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: that showed quite the contrary that our energy consumption, the 59 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: fossil fuels being used over the last year, have not 60 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 1: gone up as much as everybody thinks. I think the 61 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: figure they use is actually one percent, and that ninety 62 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 1: percent of the new energy that has been procured. I 63 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 1: mean you're nodding. Actually you know this stuff inside out, 64 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 1: but about some listeners don't. The new energy that has 65 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:19,599 Speaker 1: been procured around the world is renewable. And when you look, 66 00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:22,919 Speaker 1: actually take the time. We're all so focused on on 67 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 1: the war effort, but actually when you look and you 68 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 1: see the IRA in America, you've then got the EU's 69 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 1: fit for fifty five pre the invasion of Ukraine, they 70 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: wanted a renewable mix at fifty five percent. They now 71 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 1: actually have upped that. And then in the UK we've 72 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:40,039 Speaker 1: also had our Energy Security Strategy which also upped the 73 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 1: amount of renewables that the UK government want in its mix. 74 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: And there's others. There's there's South Korea, there's Japan, there's others. 75 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 1: So so the context felt gloomy and felt like it 76 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:56,359 Speaker 1: would be hard for progress to be made, but actually 77 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 1: it does look over the last twelve months that actually 78 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:03,600 Speaker 1: that that transition to a lower carbon economy has actually 79 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 1: been continuing apace. And this COP has been set up 80 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:11,480 Speaker 1: by both the African COP and it's been called the 81 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:15,599 Speaker 1: Implementation COP, which is about taking all the promises, many 82 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:18,719 Speaker 1: many promises made over years, in probably decades for some 83 00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: and actually making them work. So what are the big 84 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 1: things that you are keeping an eye out on over 85 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:27,840 Speaker 1: the next two weeks. I really like the implementation cop 86 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 1: That phrase is up around the conference center. The reason 87 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 1: I like it is that they're right. There was an 88 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 1: awful lot of pledges made in Glasgow and the job 89 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: for everybody is to see them translated into action. The 90 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:46,359 Speaker 1: thing I'm most excited about is this phenomenon or mechanism. 91 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 1: Mechanism is the better word of JETPS. So just energy 92 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 1: transition partnerships. It's really really complicated staff. These are high 93 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 1: emitting coal nations trying to transition them, trying to support 94 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 1: them across the lower carbon energy sources, but at the 95 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 1: same time making sure that if you're going to help 96 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 1: this big nations transition over to lower carbon, you're also 97 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 1: going to try and help them with jobs and so on. 98 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:12,279 Speaker 1: I think we are all going to need to see 99 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 1: more on cash, and I think cash as a as 100 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 1: a bucket as they call it in diplomatic speak. But 101 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 1: cash is around the hundred billion which was promised essentially 102 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:25,479 Speaker 1: a hundred years ago. I mean it was promised in 103 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 1: twenty nine. I think it was then by Gordon Brown, 104 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:31,359 Speaker 1: which gives you some sense of quite how much life 105 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: has been lived. Experimentiss I like that, you know that, 106 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:40,159 Speaker 1: but one hundred billion. The pledge was for it to 107 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 1: be met by twenty twenty At top twenty six last 108 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 1: year it became obvious that it will be met in 109 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:50,279 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. That's money that the climate vulnerable nations 110 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 1: really need pronto. They also then want clarity on what 111 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 1: that money looks like post twenty twenty five. They also, 112 00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: on top of that, want a sense of money for 113 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,040 Speaker 1: adaptation within that pots of money. So I think these 114 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:07,280 Speaker 1: are rule reasonable questions for them to be asking at 115 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 1: a time when their actual country is changing before their eyes. 116 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 1: And of course money is going to be talked about 117 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: a lot, because loss and damage is on the agenda 118 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 1: for the first time here at COP twenty seven, after 119 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 1: twenty six carbs. This is the first time they're talking 120 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: about how to compensate developing countries for the damage is 121 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: caused by climate change. Yes, the reason I am hesitating 122 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 1: is that if you for somebody like John Kerry, the 123 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: US Special Envoy, to be as set against loss and 124 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 1: damage as he is I think tells you, with all 125 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 1: his years of experience that politicking, that he feels that 126 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: it is a bridge too far for America domestically, is 127 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: probably the case for the UK domestically. Interestingly, today at Milliband, 128 00:07:55,520 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 1: the Labor Minister, Shadow Minister for Climate Change twenty six, 129 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 1: twenty seven and so on, he has said that there 130 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: is moral responsibility of countries like the UK to to 131 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 1: help with this issue. I just think that in the 132 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 1: context of a huge spending reduction exercise in the UK 133 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 1: in ten days time, it is it is important that 134 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 1: the UK appears from the comments that are being released 135 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 1: ahead of Prime Minister Isshi Sunac's visits. It's important that 136 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 1: that ring fencing of the eleven point six billion on 137 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:31,360 Speaker 1: climate finance, that is ring fence that's protected money for 138 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: this purpose, that still stands. I think that's important at 139 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: a time when you know, let's be clear, the government 140 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 1: will have been examining every expenditure item from first principles. Yeah, wonderful. 141 00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: Thanks for going on the shore Leger, my pleasure. After 142 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,079 Speaker 1: the break we'll be hearing from one of the leading 143 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:58,719 Speaker 1: voices on loss and damage at COP twenty seven, Professor 144 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 1: salimul Huck. Joining me now is Professor Sali Mulhuck. He's 145 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 1: the director of the International Center for Climate Change in 146 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 1: Development and one of the loudest voices championing climate vulnerable countries. 147 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:24,440 Speaker 1: We recorded the conversation in the beating heart of COP 148 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 1: twenty seven in the blue zone, so please forgive us 149 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 1: if you hear planes in the background, people talking, or 150 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 1: somebody just walking past. Sali Mulhuck, Welcome, thank you, nice 151 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: to be here. You've been at every COP meeting since 152 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 1: the first one in nineteen ninety five. In fact, you 153 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 1: were at the Rio Earth Summit in nineteen ninety two 154 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 1: where the un f Triple C, which is the convention 155 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 1: under which the COP meetings were created, happened. Do you 156 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 1: think COP meetings over the last twenty seven versions have 157 00:09:56,080 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: made any progress. They've certainly made progress. So what we 158 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 1: are dealing with is a planetary scale problem without a 159 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:08,079 Speaker 1: planetary government. We have two hundred governments around the world 160 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 1: on planet Earth. Something that is a global problem like 161 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 1: climate change, requires every country to come together, and the 162 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 1: only way that can be done is under the United Nations. 163 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: And the good news is that thirty years ago we 164 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 1: came together and we agreed. We have a treaty. Every 165 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:30,559 Speaker 1: single country agreed to take actions to tackle climate change. 166 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:33,439 Speaker 1: And then every year we come together at these Conferences 167 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 1: of Parties to take stock of where we are in 168 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:40,840 Speaker 1: terms of fulfilling the agreements that we made. Unfortunately, we're 169 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 1: not doing enough, We're not doing everything we said we 170 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 1: would do, and so these meetings are opportunities to see 171 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 1: how we can accelerate action, how we can do better, 172 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:53,200 Speaker 1: how we can do more, how we can go faster, 173 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:56,239 Speaker 1: and we are expecting that to happen here in Charmelshak 174 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:59,199 Speaker 1: as well. So the egypt Presidency says as many as 175 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 1: forty five and people are registered to come to the 176 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 1: COP meeting here in Charmel Shake. How have COP meetings 177 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 1: changed That forty five thousand figure is a large number, 178 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 1: But from the time that you've been coming to COP meetings, 179 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 1: what has been the visible change for you? The original 180 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:21,640 Speaker 1: Conferences of Parties were meant for government officials to come 181 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:26,840 Speaker 1: together and review progress and agree on new actions that 182 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 1: they would take together. It was involving a few thousand 183 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:35,760 Speaker 1: government officials and they'd meet most of the time behind 184 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 1: closed doors and negotiate over very arcane language which is 185 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 1: unintelligible to the rest of the people. But then over 186 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 1: time many more people started coming. I myself am not 187 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 1: a negotiator. I come as an observer, and there are 188 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:53,439 Speaker 1: many such observers, and we do lots and lots of 189 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 1: side events and activities. There are networks of young people, 190 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 1: networks of scientists, networks of farmers and indigenous people and 191 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 1: women's groups, and many many more who come to the 192 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:09,560 Speaker 1: cop to network. And so what you find nowadays is 193 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: that in addition to the core negotiators, there are a 194 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:17,959 Speaker 1: periphery of many other coalitions of the willing. And that 195 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 1: really is what you should keep your eyes on because 196 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 1: as of the last few years from the Paris Agreement. 197 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 1: The key about the Paris Agreement is that we needed 198 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 1: governments to come together to agree it. But we don't 199 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 1: have to rely on governments alone to do everything. Altogether. 200 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 1: A few governments, together with other actors, companies, CEOs, mayors 201 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: of cities can get together and decide to do something. 202 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:46,559 Speaker 1: And we have many such coalitions and every day they'll 203 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:49,560 Speaker 1: be making announcements on what they're doing. And to me, 204 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 1: that's really the message from Charmel Shake is the doers, 205 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 1: the actors, telling you what they're doing, telling all of 206 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 1: us what they're doing, and hopefully we can stimulate them 207 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:02,000 Speaker 1: to do more, and then the negotiators have to come 208 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 1: to a decision on what everybody can agree to. One 209 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: of the design flaws in the process is that a 210 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 1: decision in the cop requires consensus, and so we can 211 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 1: only get consensus around the lowest common denominator to take 212 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 1: a little bit of action, not the kind of action 213 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:24,720 Speaker 1: that we really need from everybody, and so many actors 214 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 1: can make progress after governments have agreed to a baseline 215 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:33,319 Speaker 1: action required. One of the biggest topics that's going to 216 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:36,080 Speaker 1: be talked about here where government action is going to 217 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:39,319 Speaker 1: be crucial because there has been none so far, is 218 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:42,680 Speaker 1: the subject of loss and damage. What does loss and 219 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 1: damage mean? Loss and damage is now a new phenomenon 220 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 1: that is taking place which adds to previous actions that 221 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:55,599 Speaker 1: we needed to take for mitigation that is reducing emissions 222 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 1: and then adaptation, which is preparing for the impacts of 223 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:02,720 Speaker 1: climate change, both of which are being done assuming that 224 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 1: we can prevent climate change. Unfortunately we've failed. Climate change 225 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: is now happening as of this year. The inter Governmental 226 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: Panel on Climate Change who assess the science, have given 227 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 1: unequivocal evidence that they can detect climate change impacts and 228 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 1: losses and damages due to those impacts happening as we speak. 229 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 1: A good example is the floods in Pakistan that took 230 00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: place just recently. Fifty percent of that has been attributed 231 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 1: to have been caused because of human induced climate change. 232 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 1: And under the Paris Agreement, governments have agreed to do 233 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 1: something about loss and damage, not specifically what, But since 234 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: that agreement in twenty fifteen, nothing has happened on loss 235 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:50,280 Speaker 1: and damage right, Not that nothing has happened, Some things 236 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 1: have happened. There are three ways in which loss and 237 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 1: damage we have agreed to address. The first is what 238 00:14:56,880 --> 00:15:01,400 Speaker 1: we call averted, which is prevented from happening, and that 239 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 1: maps on to mitigation, reduce emissions so we won't have 240 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 1: impacts of higher temperatures. The second one is minimize, which 241 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 1: maps on to adaptation. If you adapt, you minimize. The 242 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 1: third one is address, and that we have not done. 243 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 1: We have done work on averting and minimizing, but we 244 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 1: now have to address and address boils down to money. 245 00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 1: The people who are suffering the impacts need to be 246 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 1: given some sort of funding to recover from those impacts, 247 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 1: and that's what we are demanding me right, and so 248 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 1: over the next two weeks, what do you think would 249 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 1: be your best outcome on loss and damage? So the 250 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 1: best outcome we hope we will achieve is negotiate an 251 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 1: agreement to set up what we are calling the finance 252 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 1: facility for loss and damage. It does not have to 253 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 1: be detailed out in any detail, but we do need 254 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 1: to agree to set it up. Then we can take 255 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 1: another year, come back in COP twenty eight in Abu 256 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:10,560 Speaker 1: Dhabi and work out the details. And there are very 257 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:15,040 Speaker 1: valid questions to be associated with it, namely, where would 258 00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 1: money come from, how much money is needed, who would 259 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 1: handle the money, who would get the money, All legitimate 260 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: questions which would need a fair degree of research and 261 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 1: options to be put together, and those we can then 262 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 1: come back in COP twenty eight and work out the 263 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 1: details and negotiate something that makes sense for everybody. Now, 264 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: the first two steps were averting and minimizing and towards 265 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 1: that there was going to be one hundred billion dollars 266 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 1: being given broadly called climate finance, very vaguely, not really 267 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 1: explained that hundred billion dollars has never happened. Annually, that 268 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,600 Speaker 1: figure they're getting closed two hundred billion dollars, but they've 269 00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 1: never reached it. This is rich countries having to give 270 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 1: that money to poor countries. If they can't give hundred 271 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 1: billion dollars, which they are read upon many many years ago, 272 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:03,880 Speaker 1: why do you think they'll be able to agree upon 273 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 1: even more money to be given for addressing laws in damage. Well, 274 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:10,640 Speaker 1: we are hopeful that they will do the right thing 275 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 1: because it's the right thing to do, and not be 276 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,879 Speaker 1: miserly because they feel that they don't have enough money 277 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 1: to spare all right, And so we are appealing to them, 278 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 1: out of a sense of responsibility, to take that responsibility 279 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 1: and accept that responsibility and then talk to us about 280 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: how they can fulfill that responsibility. At the moment they're 281 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 1: refusing to take responsibility, that's not acceptable. Now. Moral outrage 282 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 1: does work sometimes, but often at the scale at which 283 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 1: we are talking, where it's two hundred countries, where there's 284 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 1: hundreds of billions of dollars worth of money to be 285 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 1: talked about, will moral outrage be enough? It certainly isn't enough. Now, 286 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 1: there's no moral responsibility taken by the rich countries at all. 287 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 1: So that's the first step. Money comes a long way 288 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:05,360 Speaker 1: after that. Responsibilities you have to start with and they 289 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 1: have to take it. And I'll give you an example 290 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: last year in Glasgow, inside the UNFCC in COP twenty six, 291 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 1: not a single country inside the COP offered any money. 292 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 1: Mister Biden came and offered zero dollars. Uncle La Markel 293 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 1: came and offered zero euros. Boris Johnson, the host, offered 294 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:28,199 Speaker 1: zero pounds. But outside the COP, in the city of Glasgow, 295 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 1: in the country of Scotland, which has its own government, 296 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:35,360 Speaker 1: its own parliament, its own first Minister, Miss Nicholas Sturgeon, 297 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 1: she actually put two million pounds on the table for 298 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 1: lost and damage. She's not a party to the UNFCC, 299 00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 1: but she is a government. She took responsibility. She said, 300 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 1: Scotland benefited from the Industrial Revolution, became rich because of it, 301 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 1: but it also recognizes that there are ancillary impacts that 302 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 1: were unintended that happened because of the emissions of their 303 00:18:55,480 --> 00:19:00,440 Speaker 1: greenhouse gasses. They take responsibility and they offered two million, 304 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 1: not a huge amount of money, but more than every 305 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 1: other leader offered to provide to the victims of climate change. 306 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 1: There is accepted moral responsibility and they invited other governments 307 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,119 Speaker 1: to do that. Now, the only other government while we 308 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,239 Speaker 1: were in Scotland that rose to the occasion was the 309 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 1: Province of Wallonia in Belgium. They offered a million euros. 310 00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 1: Since then, one of the parties to the UN Framework Convention, Denmark, 311 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:31,920 Speaker 1: has actually broken ranks with the European Union and offered 312 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 1: a hundred million kroner. So that's what we want more 313 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:38,120 Speaker 1: countries to come forward and take responsibility. Let's come back 314 00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 1: to loss and damage. Now, you said something that's very important. 315 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: Pakistan had about thirty billion dollars of damage caused by 316 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:47,679 Speaker 1: the flooding that happened over the summer. How much of 317 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 1: that should rich countries be paying for? And how is 318 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 1: that calculated? So the calculations are done by a branch 319 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:58,919 Speaker 1: of the climate scientists called attribution scientists. It used to 320 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 1: take them a long time to make these calculations and 321 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,879 Speaker 1: they come back a year later saying how much additional 322 00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 1: damage was attributable to human induce climate change. They're getting 323 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 1: much better now and they can now produce their calculations 324 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,919 Speaker 1: within a matter of days. Of fast moving events like 325 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 1: floods and cyclones, and they have attributed half the damage 326 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,880 Speaker 1: in Pakistan to the fact that global temperature is already 327 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: raised over one degree centigrade attributable to human induceclimate change. 328 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:31,679 Speaker 1: So the point we're making is that what used to 329 00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 1: be one hundred percent natural events are no longer one 330 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 1: hundred percent natural events. They are being exacerbated, not caused, 331 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 1: but exacerbated by the fact that global temperature has gone 332 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:47,640 Speaker 1: up by over one degree attributable to human emissions. And 333 00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 1: therefore there is a responsibility of the polluters who emitted 334 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:57,160 Speaker 1: those greenhouse gases to offer some support to the victims 335 00:20:57,240 --> 00:21:01,919 Speaker 1: of their pollution. So pollution does not have it's not victimless. 336 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,640 Speaker 1: There are victims, and they exist, they're happening today, so 337 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 1: there's a responsibility to help them. Now, these global negotiations 338 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:14,640 Speaker 1: require two hundred governments to come to a consensus. That means, 339 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 1: just by design, that progress is slower than it needs 340 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 1: to be. How is the climate change negotiation doing relative 341 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,639 Speaker 1: to other types of negotiations under the United Nations? Is 342 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,880 Speaker 1: there more progress or less progress on climate change? Well, 343 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:33,119 Speaker 1: I think the UN Framework Convention is a very good 344 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 1: example of all countries coming together and agreeing to do things. 345 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,360 Speaker 1: It's a bad example of them actually doing what they 346 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,680 Speaker 1: promise to do. So they make promises and then they 347 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,919 Speaker 1: fail to keep those promises, sometimes for legitimate reasons, sometimes 348 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 1: less legitimate reasons. But there are other flora as well. 349 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,640 Speaker 1: There is a United Nations General Assembly where all countries 350 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 1: come together. In the General Assembly, unlike the UN Framework Convention, 351 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,439 Speaker 1: decisions can be made by a jority of countries. In 352 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,640 Speaker 1: the UN Frame or Convention, it has to be unanimous, 353 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 1: it has to be by consensus, so we always end 354 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:09,359 Speaker 1: up by having the lowest common denominator as decisions and 355 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,639 Speaker 1: progress is always slower. In the UN General Assembly, they 356 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:16,359 Speaker 1: also have the Security Council, which can vote down or 357 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:20,040 Speaker 1: veto a decision even if the majority of countries have 358 00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 1: made them absolutely so. One of the reasons why the 359 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 1: Conference of Parties is particularly important for the more poorer, 360 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:33,440 Speaker 1: vulnerable countries is that it's the only forum in which 361 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 1: they have a seat at the table. Security Council does 362 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,920 Speaker 1: not include them. The G seven does not include them, 363 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 1: the G twenty does not include them. They're not even 364 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 1: invited as observers. The UNFCC COP once a year is 365 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,120 Speaker 1: the only place where they can sit around the table 366 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 1: with all the big guys and actually say something. They 367 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 1: may not listen, but at least we get to say it. 368 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:58,200 Speaker 1: Sometimes we actually get to persuade them to do something. Now. 369 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 1: One moment where that pursue Asian worked was at the 370 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 1: Paris Agreement, where before countries were agreeing to a two 371 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 1: degree celsius swarming goal, but because of persistent and motivated individuals, 372 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,359 Speaker 1: especially from island nations, it was possible to add the 373 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,760 Speaker 1: one point five degree celsius goal to the Paris Agreement. 374 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,040 Speaker 1: Seven years on, there is conversations that one point five 375 00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 1: degree celsius might be impossible. Do you think so? Well? 376 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,880 Speaker 1: The one point five degree goal was I would say 377 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,679 Speaker 1: the pinnacle of achievement of the vulnerable countries, including the 378 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:36,400 Speaker 1: island countries and the least developed countries, to persuade both 379 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 1: the rich countries and even the big developing countries like 380 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 1: China and India to agree to a one point five 381 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,200 Speaker 1: degree goal because they were not actually in agreement at 382 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 1: the beginning of the COP twenty one. Over the two 383 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 1: weeks we were in Paris, we managed to persuade every 384 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 1: single country to agree to adopt one point five as 385 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:59,119 Speaker 1: a target. That was a great achievement. We hope that 386 00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:02,240 Speaker 1: would drive back. It did drive some action, but not enough, 387 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:06,400 Speaker 1: and every single day now we are slipping away from 388 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 1: being able to stay below one point five. But even 389 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 1: if we don't manage one point five, every fraction of 390 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 1: a degree counts, So it's not as if two is 391 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 1: another magic figure. One point five one is a magic figure, 392 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,879 Speaker 1: one point five two is a magic figure, one point 393 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:27,399 Speaker 1: five three is a magic figure. Every incremental amount of 394 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,720 Speaker 1: temperature rise means lots and lots of people dying, losing 395 00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:35,680 Speaker 1: their livelihoods, and being forced to migrate. So the impacts 396 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,720 Speaker 1: of climate change are now real. They're happening. They will 397 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:42,880 Speaker 1: happen at bigger and bigger scales. Unfortunately in the near term. 398 00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 1: We can still prevent the huge scales in the long term, 399 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,960 Speaker 1: but the near term middle level scales are inevitable and 400 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,160 Speaker 1: are going to happen now. One thing that happened after 401 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 1: one point five degrees celsius was agreed upon as a 402 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:59,640 Speaker 1: goal is that a series of big reports came out 403 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 1: trying to explain to the world what a one point 404 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 1: five degree celsius warming would look like. Because nobody had 405 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,440 Speaker 1: figured out what that would look like, and then they 406 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:10,600 Speaker 1: said what needs to be done to reach one point 407 00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:14,639 Speaker 1: five degree celsius. And that's where net zero by twenty 408 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 1: fifty the target comes through, where reducing carbon dioxide emissions 409 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 1: to net zero by twenty fifty would allow the world 410 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,120 Speaker 1: to keep warming below one point five degree celsius. That 411 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 1: target has then been taken, as you explain, by sub 412 00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,440 Speaker 1: government actors. So it's not just national governments, it's also 413 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:37,240 Speaker 1: regional governments. It's also corporations, and that certainly has galvanized 414 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 1: people to come up with plans to reach those goals. 415 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 1: If one point five degree celsius is dead, should net 416 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:48,400 Speaker 1: zero by twenty fifty be dead too? I don't think 417 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,560 Speaker 1: I won't call it dead. I'll call it on life support. 418 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 1: And as I said, every incremental change matters, right, So 419 00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,240 Speaker 1: it's not as if we're going to fall off a 420 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,960 Speaker 1: cliff at one point five still be around, a lot 421 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 1: of people will suffer, but then we can still manage 422 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,720 Speaker 1: to stop it at one point five one and then 423 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:09,960 Speaker 1: one point five two, all right, So we will keep 424 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 1: on fighting to keep the temperature rising below two degrees 425 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 1: and at least the companies and the governments that have 426 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 1: committed to net zero by twenty fifty, If they meet 427 00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,560 Speaker 1: those goals, then they would have done them morally right 428 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,840 Speaker 1: thing to word one point five degree sources, even if 429 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:28,479 Speaker 1: the global goal is not met. Absolutely so. One of 430 00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:33,080 Speaker 1: the outcomes of the Paris Agreement is that while we 431 00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,800 Speaker 1: needed the nearly two hundred countries that are in the 432 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 1: UN Framework Convention to agree to the agreement, we don't 433 00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 1: need all of them to implement it. Implementation can be 434 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,320 Speaker 1: done by anybody you and I can decide to implement 435 00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 1: a part of the Paris Agreement. Kids around the world 436 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:55,439 Speaker 1: are implementing parts of the Paris Agreement. Companies around the 437 00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,720 Speaker 1: world are doing it. So implementation can be done by 438 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:02,000 Speaker 1: what we call coals of the willing who want to 439 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:06,000 Speaker 1: take action. Net zero by twenty fifty is such a 440 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 1: coalition that the race to zero that's taking place. We 441 00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,399 Speaker 1: need to make it go faster, We need more people 442 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,920 Speaker 1: to join it, but it's certainly moving in the right direction. 443 00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,640 Speaker 1: One other way to think about progress is that when 444 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 1: the Paris Agreement happened, the world had the possibility of 445 00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:28,480 Speaker 1: getting as much as five degrees celsius of warming. If 446 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:32,040 Speaker 1: we think two degrees celsius is catastrophic. Five degrees celsius 447 00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:39,359 Speaker 1: is mayhem. Now despite not enough action, the worst case 448 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,639 Speaker 1: outcome being talked about is three degrees celsius, which is 449 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,920 Speaker 1: still pretty bad. But what does that progress feel like 450 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,600 Speaker 1: where you have avoided the worst of the worst possibilities. Well, 451 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,920 Speaker 1: I would put that to the achievement of the UN 452 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,879 Speaker 1: Framework Convention. Without it, we would be still heading for 453 00:27:55,920 --> 00:28:00,160 Speaker 1: five degrees. A business is usual from the time Wet 454 00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,280 Speaker 1: thirty years ago would take us on a five degree pathway. 455 00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:09,560 Speaker 1: A UNFCC treaty followed by the Paris Agreement moved us 456 00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,520 Speaker 1: theoretically towards a one point five degree in less than 457 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:16,600 Speaker 1: two degrees. We are heading above two degrees, maybe in 458 00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,840 Speaker 1: the two point five to three degree range business is 459 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:23,600 Speaker 1: usual today, But if we can ratchet that down or 460 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:27,040 Speaker 1: ratchet up the actions to reduce emissions, we can certainly 461 00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,439 Speaker 1: stay below two degrees. One point five may not be 462 00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:34,800 Speaker 1: reachable anymore politically, but two degrees is certainly reachable. And 463 00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:39,800 Speaker 1: I'll give you one major advance that is outside the UNFCC, 464 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 1: but it is relevant, and that is the global economy 465 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 1: moving away from fossils. It's happening at speed. Now. The 466 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:52,960 Speaker 1: renewable energy world is faster, more efficient, cheaper, and it's 467 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 1: just going to blow out all the fossil fuel investments. Already, 468 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 1: coal is non viable. Nobody can invest in coal and 469 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,719 Speaker 1: make money. Petroleum will follow, and natural guests will follow that, 470 00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 1: and that will be the big transition. That was a 471 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,040 Speaker 1: great conversation. Thank you for laying out the stakes and 472 00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 1: for giving us an idea of what to expect over 473 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 1: the next two weeks. Thank you very much for having me. 474 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening to Zero. If you like 475 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,560 Speaker 1: the show, please rate, review and subscribe, Tell a friend 476 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,640 Speaker 1: or tell a COP twenty seven delegate. If you've got 477 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,040 Speaker 1: a suggestion for a guest or topic or something you 478 00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:39,360 Speaker 1: just want us to look into, get in touch at 479 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:43,240 Speaker 1: zero pod at Bloomberg dot net. Also, there's good news 480 00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 1: this week. For the next two weeks during COP twenty seven, 481 00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,280 Speaker 1: the paywall on Bloomberg Green has been lifted. You can 482 00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 1: head to Bloomberg dot com slash green to read all 483 00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,640 Speaker 1: our latest climate coverage and everything in the archives for 484 00:29:55,760 --> 00:30:00,480 Speaker 1: absolutely free. Zero's producer is Oscar Boyd and senior producer 485 00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:04,280 Speaker 1: is Christine riscoll Our. Theme music is composed by Wanderley. 486 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,040 Speaker 1: If you want to hear more from Allegra and me, 487 00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 1: we'll be on our sister podcast In the City, hosted 488 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:14,640 Speaker 1: by Bloomberg TV anchor Francine Laqua, on Thursday this week. 489 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:20,200 Speaker 1: Listen and subscribe. I'm Akshatrati back later this week with 490 00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:21,560 Speaker 1: more from COP twenty seven.