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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: On Bloomberg Tv and radio. On YouTube as well. Search

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business News Live if you want to catch us

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Speaker 2: here in the studio. With no path to freedom here

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Speaker 2: at least in terms of government funding, We're going to

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Speaker 2: talk about this with Tyler Kendall in a moment. Having

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Speaker 2: heard from the speaker earlier today, Mike Johnson is still

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Speaker 2: in town. In fact, a lot of lawmakers are as.

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Speaker 2: We'll hear from Chairman Boston just a moment. He's live

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Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill. But it's of course the Senate that

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Speaker 2: has to vote, and we're expecting more. Where this came

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Speaker 2: from another failed round without enough Democrats to pass the bill.

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Speaker 2: Mike Johnson speaking earlier. As I mentioned, here's the speaker.

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Speaker 3: Yes, he wants to solve problems. The President is a

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Speaker 3: deal maker. He likes to figure these things out and

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Speaker 3: works towards solutions and That's why he's a bold, strong

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Speaker 3: leader that American needs right now. I'm excited to work

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Speaker 3: with him on that. I have the exact same opinion

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Speaker 3: and position. But again, none of this can happen until

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Speaker 3: the Democrats stop inflicting pain on the American people and

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Speaker 3: turn the lights back on in Congress and get everybody

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Speaker 3: back to work.

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Speaker 2: Tyler Kendall with us in Washington with more on the

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Speaker 2: shutdown and other news coming out of the White House.

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Speaker 4: Here.

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Speaker 2: There's a question today, Tyler, about, based on what we

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Speaker 2: just heard from the President and a memo that went

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Speaker 2: out from OMB earlier, the Office of Management and Budget

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Speaker 2: that some of these furloughs may not necessarily lead the layoffs,

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Speaker 2: but they also may not get back pay, which is

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Speaker 2: something we had not heard before. The President says, it

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Speaker 2: really depends on who you're talking about. There are some

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Speaker 2: people that really don't deserve to be taken care of.

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Speaker 2: We don't have a sense of who he means, do.

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Speaker 5: We at this point?

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Speaker 6: We don't, and we heard reporters trying to follow up

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Speaker 6: for exact clarity on what this could mean. But it

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Speaker 6: comes after we saw this OMB memo circulated written by

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Speaker 6: the O and B Director Russ Votes, suggesting that the

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Speaker 6: White House is considering not issuing back pay once the

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Speaker 6: government reopens. Now, it appears the OMB is taking aim

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Speaker 6: at this law that was enacted, as you well know,

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Speaker 6: after the last shutdown in twenty nineteen, and that was

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Speaker 6: considered to be this legal guarantee that federal workers would

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Speaker 6: get back pay after a government shut down. But it

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Speaker 6: appears that the issue that they're taking with this is

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Speaker 6: that Congress would have to appropriate those funds. Specifically, this

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Speaker 6: shouldn't be considered to be an automatic guarantee, and that's

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Speaker 6: really what we're going to be looking for here. It's

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Speaker 6: definitely raising the stakes. President Trump said in this Oval

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Speaker 6: Office meeting with the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Karney that

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Speaker 6: in the next four to five days we should know

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Speaker 6: where those potential permanent layoffs shakeout. But Joe, we're up

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Speaker 6: against a pretty firm pressure point. Later this week, Friday,

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Speaker 6: October tenth, that's going to be the first miss paycheck

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Speaker 6: for many federals.

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Speaker 2: Wordur five days, he must be thinking, I guess about Monday,

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Speaker 2: which sounds to me like he wants to give leaders

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Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill room to make a deal or peel

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Speaker 2: off enough Democrats to pass the cr.

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Speaker 6: Well, it was interesting to hear President Trump basically signal

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Speaker 6: that he could be open to negotiations. That was broadly

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Speaker 6: taken as this positive step, even as Republicans have really

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Speaker 6: been standing firm here that the government needs to reopen

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Speaker 6: before any of these talks can take place. Now, what

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Speaker 6: I'm really watching for is where a potential agreement shakes

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Speaker 6: out on expanding those Affordable Care Act premium subsidies, whether

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Speaker 6: or not a commitment to an up and down vote

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Speaker 6: would potentially be enough for Democrats, because the thing with

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Speaker 6: these subsidies is subsidies, is that Republicans are divided on them.

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Speaker 6: Many of them go to people in these states that

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Speaker 6: President Trump won in twenty twenty four. These are red

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Speaker 6: states that didn't expand Medicaid and ultimately have a lot

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Speaker 6: of people on Obamacare insurance exchanges.

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Speaker 4: That's right.

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Speaker 2: This, of course, all as Tyler references, came in the

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Speaker 2: middle of an Oval Office meeting with another world leader,

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister Mark Karney is in. They're here to talk

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Speaker 2: about tariffs and trade. There were a couple of questions

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Speaker 2: about that. Most of this was on domestic politics, though,

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Speaker 2: and that's what happens when you have a room full

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Speaker 2: of American reporters. But do we expect an announcement from

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Speaker 2: the White House today on a deal with Canada.

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Speaker 6: Well, it was a relatively warm meeting, as you saw, Yeah,

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Speaker 6: Marco Karney calling President Trump a transformative president. But we

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Speaker 6: can't lose sight that Mark Karney really did campaign on

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Speaker 6: countering President Trump and his trade agenda, and we really

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Speaker 6: haven't seen a lot of movement when it comes to

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Speaker 6: the trade negotiations. Canada still facing that thirty five percent

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Speaker 6: tariff for non USMCA compliant goods, though a lot of

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Speaker 6: goods coming over the border about fifty five percent or

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Speaker 6: so are compliant. But it's really those sector specific tariffs

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Speaker 6: that I'm watching for to see if there's any sort

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Speaker 6: of movement when it comes to negotiations. They are fifty

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Speaker 6: percent for steel, aluminum, and copper. Those are really high

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Speaker 6: rates and they're impacting a range of sectors when it

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Speaker 6: comes to Canada. It was interesting though, because President Trump

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Speaker 6: seemed to demur multiple times when asked what was it

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Speaker 6: to take? What can Canada give in terms of concessions

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Speaker 6: to get this over the finish line? As you well know,

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Speaker 6: there is a range of things that this White House

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Speaker 6: is looking for, from market access to curbing fetanyl to

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Speaker 6: then digital services tax is something that has repeatedly come

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Speaker 6: up in the conversation.

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Speaker 2: Well lot going on around here, Tyler, and it certainly

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Speaker 2: reminds us how much has he had to be determined

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Speaker 2: when it comes to Canada. We've spent so much time

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Speaker 2: looking at Europe, looking at India, looking at China, that

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Speaker 2: our nearest neighbor and biggest trading partner has yet to

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Speaker 2: be resolved. Tyler Kendall frequently on the north lawn of

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Speaker 2: the White House. Lucky to have her in studio today,

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Speaker 2: our Washington correspondent, Tyler, thank you so much. I'm Joe

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Speaker 2: Matthew in Washington, and it's great to have you with

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Speaker 2: us here as we continue the conversation with someone who's

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Speaker 2: in the middle of it all with regard to the

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Speaker 2: government shut down. As I mentioned, not all lawmakers have

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Speaker 2: gone home, and that includes Congressman Mike Bost, Republican from Illinois,

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Speaker 2: who is chair of the House Veterans Affairs Committee. And

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Speaker 2: just to give you a sense of who we're about

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Speaker 2: to talk to here, as I like to let you

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Speaker 2: know exactly where a lot of these members are coming

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Speaker 2: from because yeah, they're real people to and bring a

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Speaker 2: lot of unique experience. In many cases today Mike Bost,

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Speaker 2: former firefighter, US Marine, ran his family's trucking business, member

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Speaker 2: of the Main Street Partnership. How did I do Congressmen?

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Speaker 2: Will it be the middle Will it be the main

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Speaker 2: Street Republicans who figure a way out of this?

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Speaker 7: You know, Joe, I think it's a case where we

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Speaker 7: need to make sure that the Senate today makes the

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Speaker 7: vote and comes back today.

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Speaker 8: Now, whether that happens or not, I.

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Speaker 7: Don't know, but I know that every day of shutdown

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Speaker 7: goes on, more pain is felt by more people.

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Speaker 8: And when I'm Chairman of the.

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Speaker 7: VA, I know about why we're going to see those shortfalls.

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Speaker 7: You know, right now we have several though we have

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Speaker 7: putted a front load on the medicals, most of the

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Speaker 7: medicals providing, and most veterans won't leave it out on

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Speaker 7: their main.

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Speaker 8: Services, which is their healthcare.

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Speaker 7: But when you start talking about TAP programs, people leaving

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Speaker 7: the military, when you start talking about the Fox grants,

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Speaker 7: those Fox grants are special grants set up for contractors

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Speaker 7: provide mental health. When you start talking about daycare workers,

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Speaker 7: for those people that are homebound veterans, those are all

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Speaker 7: on contracts.

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Speaker 8: We're trying to work.

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Speaker 7: With the Secretary at this time to make sure those

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Speaker 7: keep going. But each day we go further that is

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Speaker 7: more and more danger. Remember we in the House, we've

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Speaker 7: done our job, we send the Senate. The Senate keeps

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Speaker 7: bringing it back up those holdouts. They need to go

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Speaker 7: ahead and open government and then we can look into

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Speaker 7: all the other things they're bringing up, because it's those

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Speaker 7: are those things that we can negotiate while we work

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Speaker 7: on this budget, but not why we're in a shutdown.

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Speaker 2: Understood your point, mister Chairman. We spoke with the Secretary,

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Speaker 2: Doug Collins about what this means for the agency and

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Speaker 2: what it means for the delivery of veterans' services ahead

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Speaker 2: of our conversation with you today. Here's what the Secretary

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Speaker 2: told us.

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Speaker 9: The positive news to our veterans, especially for those who

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Speaker 9: get a nine million plus who get their healthcare through us,

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Speaker 9: that they're not going to see any difference in what

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Speaker 9: they're seeing. Our bet centers are still open, the counselings

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Speaker 9: going on, health outreach and placement are still going on.

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Speaker 2: So this is a good time for that, and I.

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Speaker 9: Think really is to look through this is we're going

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Speaker 9: to do what we have to do take care of ettions,

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Speaker 9: and we have the funding to do that.

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Speaker 2: Did the Secretary frame that appropriately? Because his message that

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Speaker 2: evening was that benefits are not being affected by this.

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Speaker 2: You're looking down the road, though, Congressmen, how I'm.

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Speaker 8: Looking down where they are. And let me tell you

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Speaker 8: that right now we are already.

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Speaker 7: Operating without a continuing without the ability of Congress to

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Speaker 7: authorize those particular side contracts. Everything the Secretary was talking

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Speaker 7: about is the actual function of the VIA, that is

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Speaker 7: the VAT contracted. As we're moving forward, we're a little

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Speaker 7: bit worried as those contracts are starting to not have

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Speaker 7: authorization number.

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Speaker 8: Are those those things that can lose out?

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Speaker 7: Your healthcare is still going to be there, Your appointments

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Speaker 7: are still going to be there. However, when we start

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Speaker 7: talking about the TAP program, that's.

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Speaker 8: Service members leaving.

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Speaker 7: When you start talking about home care, when you start

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Speaker 7: talking about the Fox Grande, which is mental health. We

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Speaker 7: have other mental health programs, but each one of these

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Speaker 7: is important in itself for certain individuals.

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Speaker 8: We're okay now.

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Speaker 7: And I'm glad we are, but we've got to pay attention.

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Speaker 7: This can't go well out for a long time.

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Speaker 2: Some are suggesting we could have another record here. I'm

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Speaker 2: not sure anybody has a clue at this point. Congressman,

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Speaker 2: as long as the leadership are not engaged, cross aisle here,

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Speaker 2: and I just wonder what you think. The President mentioned

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Speaker 2: last evening from the Oval Office that talks were underway

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Speaker 2: with Democrats on healthcare. Is that a plan that could

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Speaker 2: be done through back channels, that could be done quietly

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Speaker 2: to bring Democrats to the table, or does there need

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Speaker 2: to be some sort of grand bargain here that involves

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Speaker 2: government spending.

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Speaker 7: I really believe that if we come back and then

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Speaker 7: we can work on that. Remember that problem doesn't doesn't

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Speaker 7: come to fruition until the thirty first of January. This

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Speaker 7: cr only gives us to the twenty first of November.

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Speaker 7: So we come back, we start negotiating these things. But

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Speaker 7: the reason why this is difficult to negotiate is just

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Speaker 7: that it's difficult to negotiate.

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Speaker 8: Even though we don't want to see anyone lose.

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Speaker 7: Their healthcare, if we're having to subsidize the healthcare, there's

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Speaker 7: a problem with the healthcare system in the first place,

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Speaker 7: and we're not subsidizing the individuals, we're subsidizing the insurance companies.

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Speaker 8: So therefore the minds need to come together.

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Speaker 7: But that don't need to come together by scaring our

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Speaker 7: general public in a shutdown.

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Speaker 8: We need to come back to work. We need to

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Speaker 8: go to work on these problems.

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Speaker 7: We're not saying they're not there and we don't need

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Speaker 7: to work on them, but we can't be working on

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Speaker 7: them while we're playing these games.

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Speaker 8: And you're holding things hostage.

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Speaker 7: But if you look at our Democrat colleagues, many of

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Speaker 7: the leaders on the other side, thirteen times they voted

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Speaker 7: to keep the government open with this same type of clear,

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Speaker 7: clean cr when Biden was in the inn and gave

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Speaker 7: quotes like, we shouldn't hold the American people hostage. We've

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Speaker 7: got to make sure that we don't use it as

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Speaker 7: a negotiating too. Instead, we keep the government open so

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Speaker 7: that we can continue to negotiate. That's exactly what they said.

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Speaker 7: They were right then, they're right now, that would be

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Speaker 7: right now, and that's.

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Speaker 8: What we're saying.

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Speaker 2: Congressmen, our listeners and viewers should know that your twelfth

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Speaker 2: districts in Illinois is not part of Chicago it's it's

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Speaker 2: not the southern part of the state. You're closer to

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Speaker 2: Saint Louis than the are Chicago actually in the actually

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Speaker 2: western actually of your district.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, Saint Louis is a northern part of my district.

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Speaker 8: Saint Louis is in the northern.

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Speaker 7: Part of my district, and I have one third of

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Speaker 7: the state's land mass.

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Speaker 2: So, Wilson, you got a lot of farms there too.

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Speaker 2: You've got a lot of farmers. And I'm wondering, so,

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Speaker 2: what are you hearing from the White House on this?

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Speaker 2: Does there need to be a bailout? Should it come

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Speaker 2: from tariff money? How do you handle this? If they're

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Speaker 2: not buying soybeans in China? What do you do?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, we've been talking with the administration on specifically that

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Speaker 7: the tariff money, some kind of situation to help many

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Speaker 7: of these farmers. True this time, understand these farmers, many

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Speaker 7: of them are four years into their banks, years into

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Speaker 7: their banks where they haven't turned a profit.

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Speaker 8: You can only do that so long.

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Speaker 7: This would be the time to give them that opportunity

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Speaker 7: while we're building those markets. I'm really really glad that

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Speaker 7: he's meeting with Canada today. Now, let me explain this

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Speaker 7: that he was writing needed to meet with Canada because

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Speaker 7: if your grain farmer, it's one thing, and the USMCA was.

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Speaker 8: A good deal in itself.

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Speaker 7: However, remember this, when you start talking certain key products

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Speaker 7: like dairy, which we provide from northern Illinois and Wisconsin

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Speaker 7: into or would like to provide into Canada, Canada has

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Speaker 7: a four hundred percent tariff. When we start talking about

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Speaker 7: thirty percent, that sounds amazing, that sounds huge, But Canada

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Speaker 7: has four hundred percent tariff on the United States. Hopefully

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Speaker 7: we can work through to get fair trade like the

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Speaker 7: President has always talked about, and I trust the President.

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Speaker 8: To do that.

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Speaker 2: What happens first a farmer bailout or a deal with

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Speaker 2: China that starts soaking up some of these soybeans.

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Speaker 7: So the way it looks right now is probably the

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Speaker 7: using the tariff money to help those existing farmers. We're

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Speaker 7: so far into it unless these negotiations goes with China

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Speaker 7: very very quickly. Now, remember we have to renegotiate with

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Speaker 7: China because China. What they do is when they allowed

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Speaker 7: China into the World Trade Organization, they probably shouldn't have

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Speaker 7: done that in the first place, because you're supposed to

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Speaker 7: be a free government that would to be part of

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Speaker 7: the world trade, but that happened ever since. Then China

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Speaker 7: will come in and they'll take the commodities where soybeans

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Speaker 7: or corn or whatever, and they're going to say they're

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Speaker 7: going to purchase this large amount of the beginning of

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Speaker 7: the planning season, farmers will go out and plant all

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Speaker 7: these the commodities where it's corns and soybeans are wet,

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Speaker 7: and all of a sudden, then China says, oh, we

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Speaker 7: don't need that much, which causes a market to fall.

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Speaker 7: The commodity now is a cheaper rate, and now the

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Speaker 7: farmers out there trying to figure out how he's supposed

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Speaker 7: to get he or she is supposed to get the

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Speaker 7: rate that they need to even make a profit at all.

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Speaker 7: And so that's the problem when we're dealing with China.

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Speaker 7: Why we need to push them back to the table,

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Speaker 7: because it's.

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Speaker 8: Either it's your farmers, yeah, and our farmers are hurt.

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Speaker 2: Farmers feel like Lucy in the football here is do

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Speaker 2: they did they make off with? The dollar figures that

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Speaker 2: we're hearing about is a ten billion dollars the president

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Speaker 2: puts in a fund.

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Speaker 7: What do you need that dollar amount is being negotiated

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Speaker 7: with the Chairman right now, both in the House and

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Speaker 7: the Senate.

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Speaker 8: Gt.

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Speaker 7: Thompson is working very hard with his staff to make

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Speaker 7: sure and informing us as we're moving right now, because

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Speaker 7: you know, if farmer's going to make it through, then

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Speaker 7: you want to provide them a little bit of help.

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Speaker 7: But if they're really the ones that are that our

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Speaker 7: young farmers are because the megafarms quite often they hurt,

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Speaker 7: but they've got they've got enough in reserve.

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Speaker 8: It's so that don't have in reserves.

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Speaker 7: And so trying to get those numbers squeezed through the USDA.

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Speaker 8: And figuring that out is where we're at right.

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Speaker 2: Now, really really interesting. You know, we heard about back

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Speaker 2: pay for federal workers when the President was talking with

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Speaker 2: reporters in the Oval office. Mister Chairman, I don't mean

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Speaker 2: to sneak up on you here because you might not

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Speaker 2: have heard what he said, but there was a question

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Speaker 2: about some folks not getting back pay, and he said,

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Speaker 2: some people don't really deserve to be taken care of

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Speaker 2: if you wouldn't tell us when we followed up who

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Speaker 2: he meant. Do you have a sense of who he

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Speaker 2: was talking talking about?

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Speaker 10: Him.

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Speaker 7: Do you say, I don't know who you I don't

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Speaker 7: know who he was talking about. And you know, the

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Speaker 7: Speaker also was asked about this this morning. I'll say

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Speaker 7: what the Speaker said. We've always made sure that our

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Speaker 7: employees are made whole on back pay, So I would say,

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Speaker 7: if we.

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Speaker 8: Don't do that again, that'll be a rarity.

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Speaker 7: But the thing is, if we get this done, we

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Speaker 7: don't have to worry about back pay. And I'm going

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Speaker 7: to tell you I know how that is as a

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Speaker 7: young marine. Remember I was during the Carter administration and

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Speaker 7: the Reagan But during the Carter administration, marines and their

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Speaker 7: families qualified for food stamp and wick if they had

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Speaker 7: it then, but they didn't.

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Speaker 8: And so instead what.

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Speaker 7: You do is you worry from payday to pay day

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Speaker 7: for young marines with a spouse and with children, and

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Speaker 7: those are the ones that we're seeing out there that

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Speaker 7: are going to need the help and they're going to

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Speaker 7: just be dealing with.

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Speaker 8: Them when the fifteen rolls fifteenth rolls around. If they're

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Speaker 8: living pay day to pay day, how do you go

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Speaker 8: back to your creditors.

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Speaker 7: Not everybody's got a parent that they can go back

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Speaker 7: and reach to and say Hey, I'd really like you

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Speaker 7: to send me money until I.

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Speaker 8: Get through this. That's not how that works.

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Speaker 7: Unfortunately, no paid is a very very bad thing for

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Speaker 7: those people who make sure our freedoms are taken care of.

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Speaker 2: If you're paycheck to paycheck, this is the biggest deal

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Speaker 2: there is. Congressman, I'm really glad you could join us.

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Speaker 2: Mike bost is Chair of the House Veterans' Affairs Committee,

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Speaker 2: Congressman Republican from Illinois twelfth District, and great to have

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Speaker 2: your insights with us. We'll assemble our panel next for

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Speaker 2: their take on this. Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Shanzano and

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Speaker 2: Rick Davis are with us here on the fastest show

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Speaker 2: in politics. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. Thanks for being

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Speaker 2: with us here on that Tuesday edition as we work

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Speaker 2: our way toward the next round of voting on a

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Speaker 2: continuing resolution to keep the government or reopen. On Bloomberg,

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Speaker 2: stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much

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Speaker 2: more coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

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Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You

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Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

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Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: It is October seventh, two years to the day since

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Speaker 2: the attacks by Hamas against Israel that killed nearly twelve

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Speaker 2: hundred people and kicked off two years now of raging conflicts.

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Speaker 2: Negotiations are continuing today in Cairo. They are meeting again

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Speaker 2: even on this solemn occasion in Israel October seventh, and

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Speaker 2: at three pm today it will ricochet back to the

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Speaker 2: White House as President Trump meets in the Oval Office

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Speaker 2: with Eden Alexander. You may have heard about this the

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Speaker 2: American Israeli hostage released by Hamas in May. He will

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Speaker 2: be with the President about an hour and a half

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Speaker 2: from now. We mentioned all of this, of course, because

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Speaker 2: the possibility of peace following so much destruction and death

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Speaker 2: appears to be at hand, with talks underway here following

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Speaker 2: the President's twenty point plan hammered out with Benjaminett Yahoo,

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Speaker 2: or according to some the arm twisting that convinced Netanyahu

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Speaker 2: to accept this deal and one that we have I

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Speaker 2: guess conditional acceptance of, if we can call it that

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Speaker 2: from Hamas, but they are obviously continuing to talk about

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Speaker 2: the release of hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli forces

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Speaker 2: in Gaza. More than sixty thousand people are have been

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Speaker 2: reported to have been killed in Gaza since October seven,

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty three. And we start with our panel on

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Speaker 2: this today. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano

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Speaker 2: are with us. Genie is democracy visiting fellow at Harvard

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Speaker 2: Kennedy School's Ash Center, our democratic analyst, and Rick is

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Speaker 2: Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. It's difficult

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Speaker 2: to imagine what the conversation is like today in Cairo,

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Speaker 2: knowing that this is the seventh of October. Does it

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Speaker 2: heighten the urgency or make it more difficult to move

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Speaker 2: closer to a ceasefire.

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Speaker 11: I think we all hope it heightens the urgency. And

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Speaker 11: you mentioned Iden Alexander. He is, by some reports, the

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Speaker 11: last living US Israeli hostage, and I think that's going

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Speaker 11: to be quite a moving moment when Donald Trump meets

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Speaker 11: with him at the White House today.

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Speaker 5: Another as you.

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Speaker 11: Mentioned, in a long line of reminders of what has

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Speaker 11: happened since that horrific assault two years ago. You know,

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Speaker 11: I hope that it does lead lend a sense of urgency.

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Speaker 11: The problem is we have these two phases in this deal,

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Speaker 11: and by all accounts, these are still indirect talks, which

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Speaker 11: is problematic. But it's also problematic that we haven't had

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Speaker 11: yet out of Hamas an acceptance of both of these

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Speaker 11: phases of the deal. If you just look at phase one,

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Speaker 11: for instance, the release of the hostages and then a

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Speaker 11: movement back of Israel still within four miles in Gaza,

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Speaker 11: that yellow line of the Trump Administration's map. The problem

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Speaker 11: is Hamas has never wanted to agree to that. They've

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Speaker 11: wanted to withdrawal by Israel. So we have some ways

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Speaker 11: to go. But I think there is some reason to

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Speaker 11: hope because the entire world seems to be pushing Hamas

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Speaker 11: to accept this deal.

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Speaker 2: What is your thought today, Rick, It's a reminder, of course,

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Speaker 2: about how this started, but also it tells us how

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Speaker 2: long this has been going on and how important it

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Speaker 2: is for us to find resolution. Here. Will this group

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Speaker 2: meeting in Cairo manage to get this done well?

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Speaker 10: It's certainly the closest step we've seen since the attacks

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Speaker 10: of October seventh two years ago, and it really has

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Speaker 10: ushered in a profound change in the Middle East. You

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Speaker 10: look at this right now in a vacuum as a

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Speaker 10: negotiation between the Israelis and Hamas, but the reality is

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Speaker 10: is it incorporated a region wide war that has been

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Speaker 10: perpetrated with Israel taking out Hezbalah, fighting actively to UH,

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Speaker 10: to weaken the the Yemeny groups that have been supported

442
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 10: of India or India Iran.

443
00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 2: An attack actually on the country of Iran.

444
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,400
Speaker 10: I mean like when you think about, you know, Syria

445
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 10: changing leadership, I mean, we're in a different world than

446
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 10: we were two years.

447
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,639
Speaker 2: Ago UH when this attack took place.

448
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 10: And I think that's the reason that you might actually

449
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:38,359
Speaker 10: see peace here because there's no retreat Iran's it's weakest point,

450
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,679
Speaker 10: there's not really active support for Hamas. Hamas has taken

451
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 10: on enormous losses and there's no future for the people

452
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:52,119
Speaker 10: of Palestine without a resolution of this conflict.

453
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 2: And so pressure is on.

454
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 10: And I have to give credit to Donald Trump for

455
00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 10: keeping nit Yahoo and in the game right to forcing

456
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 10: him to a negotiation that otherwise he probably would not

457
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 10: be actively involved in. And the US is Israel's last

458
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 10: significant ally, and without us there would be no peace.

459
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 2: You wonder what's next here, Janie. We're obviously marking October

460
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,679
Speaker 2: seventh today, but I just saw Marco Rubio on the

461
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 2: couch in the Oval Office with the President. We know

462
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 2: that Steve Witkoff and indeed Jared Kushner have both also

463
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 2: been instrumental in getting us to this point. Who's leading

464
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 2: the charge on this White House diplomacy?

465
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean I think Witkoff and Kushner have been paramount.

466
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:45,199
Speaker 11: Obviously you mentioned Marco Rubios, Secretary of State, So you know,

467
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 11: I think Witkoff, who has had an awful lot on

468
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 11: his plate, and Kushner are really been able to deal

469
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:55,679
Speaker 11: to Rick's point with Net and Yahoo. You know, but

470
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,880
Speaker 11: let's remember what these talks are being described as right

471
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 11: now yesterday as technocratic talks. Really talks about this first phase,

472
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 11: like things as basic as the sequencing. Does Hamas have

473
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 11: access to the hostages, both living and deceased, in order

474
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 11: to fulfill if they decide to their end of this deal.

475
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 11: And yet again Hamas has still not agreed to any

476
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,160
Speaker 11: of that, and so we do have a ways to go.

477
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 11: And speaking of Net and Yahoo, he is feeling pressure

478
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 11: both internally and externally. We have these really striking poles

479
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 11: from Israel in the last day or so showing that

480
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 11: about two thirds of Israelis are saying that Net and

481
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 11: Yahoo should take responsibility for the attacks and resign, where

482
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 11: we're seeing that a good substantial portion believe that Israel

483
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 11: has committed genocide. Those numbers are reflected by Israelis or

484
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 11: Jews who live in the United States, and of course

485
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,159
Speaker 11: the White House has seeing those poles as well, So

486
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 11: there is a lot of pressure on Net and Yahoo.

487
00:23:57,600 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 11: But of course there's a lot of pressure on the

488
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 11: Hamas political wing as well, because what are they going

489
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 11: to have to do. They are going to have to

490
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,199
Speaker 11: sign their death warrant, and that is going to be

491
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 11: very hard for any individual or group to do, but

492
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 11: that's essentially what would have to happen through this deal

493
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 11: to go through.

494
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,680
Speaker 2: Do you mean political death warrant, Genie, Yeah.

495
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 11: I'm sorry about that. Absolutely political death warrant, because this

496
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 11: says that they are disarmed, that there may be amnesty

497
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 11: for fighters who denounce violence, but that the group itself

498
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 11: will be disbanded and have no role in a potential

499
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 11: future Palestinian state. And that is, as you can imagine,

500
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,880
Speaker 11: just like individuals, states act the same way. Very very

501
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 11: hard to imagine that the political and military end come

502
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 11: to an.

503
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 4: Agreement on that.

504
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 11: They may, but they would be signing their own political

505
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:49,400
Speaker 11: death warrant there.

506
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 2: It does certainly sound like it, Rick, I'm assuming you

507
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 2: look at it this way as well as obviously benjaminettya

508
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 2: who does the use calling for the elimination of hama

509
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 2: Us To what extent does that lead to a potential rebranding, however,

510
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 2: with political leaders in Gaza assuming the role of leadership

511
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:09,400
Speaker 2: in some other group.

512
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 10: Yeah, look, I mean I think it goes without saying

513
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 10: that Prime minision it Yahoo said at the time two

514
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:24,679
Speaker 10: years ago that the operation that he will overtake is

515
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 10: the complete and total destruction of Hamas, and that has

516
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 10: not happened today. There are still people who would be

517
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:37,639
Speaker 10: considered leaders there, and they're the ones currently negotiating. Genie

518
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,120
Speaker 10: makes a good point. I'm not sure it's a political point.

519
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 10: It actually is a death warrant for these individuals, because

520
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 10: we only have to remember the nineteen seventy two Munich

521
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 10: Olympic massacre.

522
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:53,479
Speaker 2: In Israel.

523
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 10: At that time said the same thing we will hunt

524
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 10: down the people who did this and we will destroy them.

525
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 2: And Operation Wrath of Guard did just that.

526
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 10: It took decades, but at the end of the day,

527
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:10,640
Speaker 10: the people who perpetrate this attack two years ago on

528
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,360
Speaker 10: Israel will feel the wrath of Israel.

529
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 2: And so this is a heavy negotiation.

530
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 10: There'll be efforts to try and get leadership, sanctuary and

531
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 10: other cities, but they all know what we know, which

532
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 10: is that Israel will always look for opportunities to vanquish

533
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 10: their enemies who've perpetrated these.

534
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 2: Horrible crimes on their people.

535
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 10: And that has got to be part of the negotiation

536
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,399
Speaker 10: that's going on today. And so yes, there are a

537
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 10: lot of technical issues that have to be figured out.

538
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 10: The twenty point plan is not even close to being

539
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 10: a comprehensive plan. But at the end of the day,

540
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 10: all parties are now in one location hashing us out,

541
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 10: which we have not seen happen heretofore. And I think

542
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,880
Speaker 10: the world is keeping pressure on these groups to try

543
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 10: and come to an end to this carnage that's been

544
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:06,679
Speaker 10: going on now for two years.

545
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:11,160
Speaker 2: It's an important moment. Janie. In our final minute here

546
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:15,360
Speaker 2: in our conversation, would the political leadership of FAMAS, then

547
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 2: following the signing of any deal essentially just go into

548
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 2: hiding in Doha. They can never go back to Gaza, right, Yeah.

549
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 11: I think that's an open question, and it's a really

550
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 11: important one because what history shows us is that any

551
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:34,680
Speaker 11: time you destabilize a leadership, whether you describe it as

552
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 11: evil or tyrannical, or democratic or otherwise, another group is

553
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 11: going to come in and fill that power gap or

554
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,880
Speaker 11: power gap, and that group can be worse.

555
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:46,439
Speaker 5: Than the group that preceded it.

556
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 11: We've seen that repeatedly, and of course, as the leading

557
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 11: democracy in the world, we must always remember we do

558
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 11: owe to the Palestinians a right of self determination as

559
00:27:58,320 --> 00:27:59,880
Speaker 11: to how they live peaceful.

560
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis tackling some heavy issues with

561
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 2: us today on Balance of Power, and I thank you

562
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,639
Speaker 2: both for the insights and we'll keep you posted on

563
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 2: talks in Cairo. Stay with us on Balance of Power.

564
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 2: We'll have much more coming up after this.

565
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

566
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

567
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto.

568
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 8: With the Bloomberg Business.

569
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 1: App, you can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from

570
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 1: our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg

571
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 1: eleven thirty.

572
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 2: The Tuesday edition might feel a little bit like the

573
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,040
Speaker 2: Monday edition and that the government, yes, is still shut

574
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 2: down and we have no idea when it's going to reopen.

575
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 2: You start talking to lawmakers, as we did earlier with

576
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 2: Chairman Boss about off ramps, and everybody points to the

577
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: other party. And that's where we are right now. With

578
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 2: more voting in the mix in the Senate today, of course,

579
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 2: there's the prospect of either more Democrats falling off the

580
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 2: fence here and voting for the continuing resolution, much as

581
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 2: there is some falling off. There is reporting today that

582
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 2: Angus King, the Independent who caucuses with the Democrats who

583
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 2: voted for this one of three to cross over, might

584
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 2: not be on board today because of some of the

585
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 2: rhetoric that we're hearing. A lot of this comes down

586
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 2: to trust. We're going to discuss in a moment with

587
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 2: Megan Scully, who leads our Capital Influence team. We did

588
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 2: discuss it earlier today with Republican Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana,

589
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 2: who is on Bloomberg's surveillance. Let's watch and listen.

590
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 4: There's a complete breakdown of trust.

591
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 12: Chuck Schumer, Obviously, you get end it tomorrow if he

592
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 12: wants to end it, but he doesn't trust the president.

593
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 12: As said, Chuck Schumer could end this tomorrow. I'm hoping

594
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 12: that he does, and I'm hoping it doesn't take a

595
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 12: lot of pain from the American people in order to

596
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 12: get him to do so.

597
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 13: Is there a breakthrough the fact that in Good Morning, Senator,

598
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 13: that it does seem like both sides, at least at

599
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 13: this point, want to talk about talking as political put it,

600
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 13: that the President is coming out and saying maybe there

601
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 13: could be a compromise comes to healthcare.

602
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 12: Yeah, absolutely know. It's better to judge all than the

603
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 12: world wars. Winston Churchill once said, so let's go ahead

604
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 12: and start talking. That said, Republicans have suggested a seven

605
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 12: week extension of the current budget to to allow dialogue

606
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 12: to continue, and that's commonly done, as Chuck Schumer points out,

607
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 12: happened thirteen times under Joe Biden, and so that seven

608
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 12: weeks kept the government open, allowed us to continue to negotiate.

609
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 4: So I think there's something else that Schumer's thinking.

610
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 12: About, not quite sure what it is, but I'd rather

611
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 12: be talking than kind of sitting.

612
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 4: In our own corners.

613
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 13: What is going to happen though at the end of

614
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 13: the year when we get this premium.

615
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 12: Hike, Well, first, we don't know what premium mic is

616
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 12: going to occur, let's just say that. But secondly, we've

617
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 12: got to address the fact that the Affordable Care Act

618
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 12: has become the Unaffordable Care Act, in which it takes

619
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 12: huge subsidies in order to continue to make those policies

620
00:30:58,320 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 12: affordable to Americans.

621
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 4: That's wrong.

622
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 12: We've got to roll that back to a point where

623
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 12: it's still affordable to Americans, but it doesn't require these

624
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 12: huge subsidies. This is not sustainable. But by the way,

625
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 12: it's not just me saying this. The Washington Post had

626
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,960
Speaker 12: an editorial about how the Affordable Care Act is no

627
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 12: longer affordable.

628
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 4: So I think now might be the time.

629
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 12: What can we do to help the American public lower

630
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 12: health care cost in a way which is not just

631
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 12: for the exchanges but for those in the kind of

632
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 12: private markets as well.

633
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 13: Could you get a compromise like that before the end

634
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 13: of the year.

635
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 4: I sure hope so.

636
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 12: But first you got to reopen the government, we're actually

637
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 12: asking for, you.

638
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 4: Know, how can we do this? How can we do that?

639
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 4: The governments shut down so we can't get some of

640
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 4: the information.

641
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 12: The seven week extension of the current budget allows that

642
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:47,960
Speaker 12: to happen, and so I'd ask Schumer to reopen the

643
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 12: government in the meantime. I'm certainly committed to how we

644
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 12: get lower health care costs for all Americans. That's what

645
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 12: I've been doing my whole life, and so let's get

646
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:56,239
Speaker 12: on it.

647
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 8: Senator.

648
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 13: When it comes to moderate Democrats, do you see any

649
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 13: willingness of some of them to join the three that

650
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 13: we have seen sign up and vote for a clear

651
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 13: stopgap funding measure.

652
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 4: I've not spoken to any of them personally. You'd like

653
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 4: to think so one more time.

654
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 12: We've just asked for a seven week extension of the

655
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 12: current budget, which was done thirteen times under Joe Biden,

656
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 12: and so I would hope they would because this is

657
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 12: inflicting pain on the American people. But we could be

658
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 12: talking with each other without a shutdown.

659
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 2: Publican from Louisiana also a physician, we should note so

660
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 2: that conversation about extending ACA subsidies is important. Through the

661
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 2: eyes of doctor Cassidy, as it is through the eyes

662
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 2: of Megan Scully, who we get to talk with now

663
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 2: runs Bloomberg's Capital Influence Team. This is the group of

664
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 2: people here in Washington tasked with covering this shutdown twenty

665
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 2: four hours a day until it ends. And Megan, it's

666
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 2: great to see you once again. Thanks for having a

667
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 2: shutdown here. Really interesting to hear the discipline among Republicans

668
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 2: when it comes to messaging around this. I don't know

669
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 2: how many times we just heard the name Chuck Schumer. Yeah,

670
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 2: I don't think Bill Cassidy called it the Schumer shutdown,

671
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 2: but we're getting that as often as well, thirteen times

672
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 2: right under Biden. We hear that in every answer from

673
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 2: each lawmaker. Some of this was tipped over a little

674
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 2: bit by the President yesterday when he talked about these

675
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 2: talks being underway with Democrats. The White House has walked

676
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 2: that back a little bit. Yes, I was talking with

677
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 2: Tom Emmer last evening the Majority Whip. He didn't want

678
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 2: any part of that conversation. All I heard about was

679
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 2: the Schumer shutdown. Are Republicans winning the messaging war?

680
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 5: You know, polling is indicating that they're not.

681
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 14: Of course, it's early yet, right, and the full effects

682
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 14: of the shutdown haven't been felt by the American people.

683
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 14: When we start to see travel delays because TSA workers

684
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,959
Speaker 14: are calling out, you know, perhaps it will be there

685
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 14: will be a different there will be a shift, But

686
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 14: you know, the biggest those feeling at the most are

687
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 14: those who are going to be going without a paycheck

688
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 14: later this week or next week.

689
00:33:57,840 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 5: Certainly, I will say it's hard.

690
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 14: It's easier for the House Republicans particularly to stay on

691
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 14: message because they're not here in Washington, right so they

692
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 14: are they may be at home doing some doing interviews,

693
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 14: but they're not here voting. They're not getting tracked down

694
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:17,239
Speaker 14: in the halls by our reporters, by other reporters, So

695
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 14: it is easier to stay on message then. But we

696
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:23,399
Speaker 14: did see one very important one who someone who's become

697
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:25,880
Speaker 14: a bit of a squeaky wheel in the House Republican Caucus,

698
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 14: and that's Marjorie Taylor Creed.

699
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 2: She brought this up. What do you think about this?

700
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 2: I can't even read the whole thing of the obleep

701
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,240
Speaker 2: us on the air. And it's also a long post.

702
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 5: It is very long.

703
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 2: She says, she's carving her own lane, and she's pointing

704
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 2: to her own family. Yes, when it comes to rising subsidies,

705
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 2: is she on her own here or does she open

706
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,359
Speaker 2: the door for other Republicans to do the same.

707
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:46,280
Speaker 5: So it's hard to say at this moment.

708
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 14: Marjorie Taylor Green doesn't really represent anyone. You know, she

709
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,839
Speaker 14: was in the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus and got kicked out,

710
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:57,919
Speaker 14: so she's sort of a caucus of one, and her

711
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 14: her allies may not necessarily fall in line behind her.

712
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,800
Speaker 14: But I think it is an interesting jail break from

713
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 14: the Republican message, and particularly when she's talking about her

714
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 14: own adult children having double premiums and it being very

715
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 14: much a concern. She also is a small business owner,

716
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 14: and a lot of small business owners rely on the

717
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 14: Affordable Care Act to get their insurance.

718
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:25,399
Speaker 2: Sure to your point, she's talking about her kids. I'm

719
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 2: going to go against everyone on this issue, she writes,

720
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 2: because when the tax credits expire this year, my own

721
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 2: adult children's insurance premiums for twenty six are going to double,

722
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 2: along with all the wonderful families and hardworking people in

723
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 2: my district. She may not be part of a powerful caucus,

724
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 2: but she does have the president's here right does this

725
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 2: help to maybe crack the door a little bit on

726
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 2: this issue at the White House.

727
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:52,239
Speaker 14: So we are trying to sort that out. Her relationship

728
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:54,840
Speaker 14: with Trump has been a bit fraught in recent weeks,

729
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 14: particularly over the Epstein files. She's been one of the

730
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,400
Speaker 14: lawmakers to sign on to what we call dish charge

731
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 14: petition essentially there too. Yes, certainly, and she was supposed

732
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:07,319
Speaker 14: to have a press conference at the Capitol tomorrow on

733
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 14: particularly sort of a revised or an updated that.

734
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 5: Seems to be canceled right now.

735
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 14: But she's still beating the drum on the release of

736
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 14: the Epstein files. So it is very interesting to see

737
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 14: her break with the president yet again on this. I'm

738
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 14: not sure if he's answering her calls right now. We're

739
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 14: definitely endeavoring to find out.

740
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 2: Boy, I bet that's true, you know, with regard to

741
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 2: the discharge petition. Just to veer off course for one minute,

742
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 2: there's a new member of Congress, Yes, Congresswoman Grijalva or

743
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 2: congress Woman elect Grihava has not been sworn in to

744
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 2: office yet. There is a whole conspiracy online that this

745
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:44,720
Speaker 2: shutdown is only to keep the Epstein files from being released.

746
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 2: But why can you not swear in a new member

747
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 2: when the government's.

748
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 14: Closed because the House is not in sessions, as simple

749
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 14: as that, so they can't swear her.

750
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:54,720
Speaker 2: So next week it could be sure if.

751
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 14: Mike Johnson were to call the House back in, although

752
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:58,320
Speaker 14: he says they're going to stay out for the duration

753
00:36:58,520 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 14: of the Chef.

754
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to take the opportunity to mention, by

755
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 2: the way, that we're going to be speaking with Speaker

756
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:05,799
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson tomorrow here on Balance of Power on the

757
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 2: Late Edition, which is a conversation that we're obviously very

758
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 2: much looking forward to to learn exactly where his head

759
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 2: is right now. The Speaker of the House will join

760
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 2: us in the five pm Eastern hour tomorrow here on

761
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. Do we know what the plan

762
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 2: is today or are we just ad living? There were

763
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 2: supposed to be votes every day, right, but we haven't

764
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 2: heard about a time.

765
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 14: We have not heard about a time in the Senate

766
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 14: for a vote. They've already voted on the seven week

767
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 14: stop gap, which Senator Cassidy mentioned five times, and it's

768
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:35,240
Speaker 14: failed all five times.

769
00:37:35,640 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 5: So chis might not make it a difference.

770
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 14: Yes, So we're waiting to see if they do call

771
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 14: a vote. I think some of the president's actions in

772
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:47,399
Speaker 14: the past day have kind of thrown a wrench into things,

773
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 14: particularly his announcement this morning or the OMB memo, the

774
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 14: Budget Office memo that's been circulating on not giving pay

775
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 14: toad backpay to furload employees. So that has sort of

776
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 14: sucked all the oxygen out of the room today on

777
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 14: Capitol Hills, as members of both parties sees on those comments.

778
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting that you know, Angus King aforementioned, has

779
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 2: been listening to this. He doesn't like the rhetoric, and

780
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 2: he's suggesting that he may become a no vote once again.

781
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:19,839
Speaker 2: On all of this, we've got not just Angus King,

782
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 2: but John Fetterman. I'm assuming that he's in place for now.

783
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 2: Senator Cortez Masto also a question, could we be in

784
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 2: a world where the next round of voting, and maybe

785
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 2: that's why we don't have one today, looks worse.

786
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 14: We certainly seem to be going the wrong way, at

787
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:36,160
Speaker 14: least if you're if you are a member of Republican leadership.

788
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 14: All senators are also not in town. There were quite

789
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 14: a few who were who were absent last night for

790
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 14: the vote, and remember we must love that it's a

791
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:50,759
Speaker 14: sixty vote threshold, so it is. It will be very

792
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 14: interesting to see in the next round of votes. You know,

793
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 14: Republicans had hoped to be picking Democrats off one by one.

794
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:58,840
Speaker 5: You know, there are there are several.

795
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 14: Moderates who would like to see the Garver reopened, particularly

796
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 14: those in this area, people like Senator Tim Kaine from Virginia.

797
00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:12,440
Speaker 14: But the president's threats to fire federal workers and to

798
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 14: not give back pay to furloughed employees seem to be

799
00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 14: having opposite of the intended effect. Instead of scaring Democrats,

800
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 14: it's making them more resolute.

801
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 2: Wow, amazing. The President says four or five days we'll

802
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 2: have a decision of some sort on furloughs becoming layoffs,

803
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 2: on the mass layoffs that that have been threat and

804
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 2: that sounds to me four or five days. Everyone's going

805
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 2: to kind of wait for the tenth and the fifteenth,

806
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 2: the next stops in the pay cycle for Feds and

807
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 2: for military. Is that kind of the next stop in

808
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:39,799
Speaker 2: the road.

809
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 14: So we've been hearing him say, you know, we've gotten

810
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,920
Speaker 14: different timelines for this. You know, last week it was

811
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:46,719
Speaker 14: within a few days, within a day or two.

812
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:47,799
Speaker 5: Now four or five days.

813
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 14: It's starting to feel like when I'm driving with my

814
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:51,440
Speaker 14: kids in the backseats, they're acting up and I'm like,

815
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 14: I'm going to turn this car around.

816
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 2: Don't make me.

817
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 14: So it remains to be seen. Certainly, the threat is

818
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 14: still hanging out there. Yeah, federal workers are supposed to

819
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 14: be paid this Friday, so that would.

820
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:06,800
Speaker 5: Then set them up for, you know, for layoffs at.

821
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 14: Some point after he did say it would be substantial today.

822
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:14,799
Speaker 14: In the past they have said thousands. So what we're

823
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,479
Speaker 14: remain to be seen. I can't underscore enough though, how

824
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:21,720
Speaker 14: different this is from previous shutdowns, where you know, previous

825
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 14: administrations have not us Trump himself did not use correct

826
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 14: the thirty five day shutdown, the last one we had

827
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 14: in twenty eighteen to twenty nineteen, to do mass firings.

828
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 2: Your gut check, though, is check back when there's news, right.

829
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 2: I mean, we could set a new record in this shutdown. Yeah,

830
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,359
Speaker 2: granted we could reopen in a couple of days, but

831
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:42,799
Speaker 2: the prospect for a protracted shutdown is there.

832
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 14: Absolutely, talks are not having happening, and neither side seems

833
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 14: like they are willing to give at this point. So

834
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 14: I think that it will be interesting to watch last

835
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 14: time in twenty.

836
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 5: Nineteen January twenty nineteen.

837
00:40:56,960 --> 00:41:00,880
Speaker 14: What ultimately convinced Trump to reopen the guvert after he

838
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 14: didn't get his Border will funding was air traffic controllers

839
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 14: not showing up for work and hobbling air traffic in

840
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 14: this country.

841
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:10,839
Speaker 2: And we've got thousands of flight delays already with some

842
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 2: thin staffing. This could really be the next leg in

843
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 2: the story. Megan Scully, great to have you with us.

844
00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 2: Our Capital Influence team is busy living on caffeine and

845
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 2: nothing like seeing Stephen Dennis and the rest of the

846
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,640
Speaker 2: crew up there on Capitol Hill do their thing. Eric

847
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 2: Wasson as well. This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to

848
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 2: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if

849
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 2: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get

850
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:37,280
Speaker 2: your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday

851
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 2: from Washington, DC at New Time Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.