1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you at the grocery store 5 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg pm L podcast 6 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: on iTunes, SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. You know, 7 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 1: Pim Fox. We hear a lot about the A, T 8 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: and T and Time Warner merger, and we've heard Donald Trump, 9 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:38,559 Speaker 1: president elect, talk about it and say that he opposes it. 10 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 1: Are we at least heard that according to sources, as 11 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: reported by Bloomberg, that he has told people he still 12 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: opposes it. So can this deal still get done? I 13 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 1: want to bring in Porter bib managing partner at Media 14 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: Tech Capital Partners in New York. Porter, what do you 15 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 1: think is going on here? I mean, Ken Ken, President 16 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 1: Trump even way in on this deal in any practical way. 17 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 1: Actually he can't, but that's not going to stop him. 18 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 1: And the one thing we have learned about President elect 19 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:17,400 Speaker 1: Trump is that whatever he says is always reversible, uh, 20 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 1: in a millisecond, because he's been doing it every day. 21 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 1: He's he's got a very interesting meeting in an hour 22 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: and a half with the senior US intelligent the community leaders. 23 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 1: And my guess is he's going to reverse his uh 24 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: love affair that he's had with Julian Ensage when not 25 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 1: meeting is over. But regarding Time Warner, A T and T, 26 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: the two new UH Trump appointees to the SEC have 27 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: both come out very strongly in favor of proving the deal. 28 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:56,919 Speaker 1: There's been no problem, uh surface that that the Obama 29 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: Justice Department, UM, and I don't that that Trump's team 30 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 1: is going to see this as anything but a very 31 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:12,959 Speaker 1: positive Jeff says Zebuscus UH and Randall Stevens. And when 32 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 1: they came to Congress and UM testified about this deal, 33 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:23,080 Speaker 1: really pointed out the the fact that most people in 34 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 1: Washington hadn't yet realized that the competition is not are 35 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 1: the cable or telecom companies, It's the Frightful five, It's 36 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 1: the Google's, the Amazon's, the Microsoft's. Uh. Those companies are 37 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 1: on Facebook. They're going to rule the media market going forward, 38 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 1: and A T and T and Time Warner are going 39 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: to be rather rather small competitors compared to the tech companies. 40 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 1: Porter if anyone doubts that this merger is going to happen. 41 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: You're saying, don't doubt it. It will happen, at least 42 00:02:56,840 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 1: not because of government interference. That's what I'm saying. And 43 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 1: Jeff Mucas came out last week and chief executive Time Warner. Yes, 44 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:10,119 Speaker 1: then there he said, there is no Plan B. Plan 45 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 1: A is what we're planning to do, and uh, um, 46 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 1: it's going to go through and if it doesn't, uh, 47 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 1: that's it. We're going to stay standalone. But that that 48 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,240 Speaker 1: had a hollow ring to it because he's as vulnerable 49 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:30,679 Speaker 1: as the other linear media content providers. They have to 50 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: expand they have to go digital, and the huge consumer 51 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 1: facing aspect of a T and T UM is going 52 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 1: to elevate Time Warner into a very significant competitive position 53 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 1: against the tech giants, where you know, there are going 54 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: to be a lot of changes on in the media 55 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 1: landscape next year. This year. Uh, two of the biggest 56 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: moves that if it in the news recently are making 57 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 1: Kelly and credit on suster and moving to and B 58 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 1: see from Fox. Do you think that Fox is going 59 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 1: to suffer from this? And conversely, do you think the 60 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 1: NBC really will benefit well? The loss of Roger Ales 61 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:16,719 Speaker 1: has really put the pressure on James and Rockland Murdoch, 62 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 1: who are who are essentially running the company right now 63 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 1: with with Rupert taking a much less dominant role, and 64 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 1: they have been both very adamant, but James and Laughlin 65 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 1: saying they want to keep Fox the way it is 66 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 1: positioned as a partisan network, partisan leading network, but emphasize 67 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 1: the hard news and what they call the fair and 68 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 1: balanced aspect. And I think having having lost Megan Kelly, 69 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 1: especially because she was really a departure from the heavily 70 00:04:55,720 --> 00:05:00,200 Speaker 1: partisan prime time lineup that Fox has, that that is 71 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:03,039 Speaker 1: going to be a very interesting situation to see whether 72 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 1: Fox continues down the road that they have traveled for 73 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:11,599 Speaker 1: for the last twenty years. And the most important thing, however, 74 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:18,160 Speaker 1: that Fox is facing is the the very serious demographic situation. 75 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:22,920 Speaker 1: Almost sixty percent of their audience is over sixty years old, 76 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: and they're very very weak and the key demographic eighteen 77 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:30,799 Speaker 1: to forty nine, which advertisers want. And despite the fact 78 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: that they are the market leader in cable news right now, 79 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: the demographics are very poor. And if you start looking 80 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 1: at the ads that are running on Fox, there's more 81 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: pharmaceutical and reverse mortgage advertising. Uh than anything else. You 82 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 1: don't see the cars and the soft drinks and the 83 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:55,679 Speaker 1: other major advertising categories that the other networks are caring. 84 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: So I think Fox has to do a lot of 85 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: thinking about what kind of image and format they want 86 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 1: to go with going forward. And losing Megan Kelly was 87 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:10,280 Speaker 1: a very serious loss to them. She is going to 88 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:13,480 Speaker 1: be replaced by we Gotta we gotta leave it there. 89 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: I want to thank you very much, Porter bib He 90 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: is managing partner Media Tech Capital Partners. Well more than 91 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 1: two hundred thousand people are at the Consumer Electronics Show 92 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 1: in Las Vegas, and one of them is our guest, 93 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: Dr Alex Leedo. He is the chief executive and the 94 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:45,159 Speaker 1: co founder of Efficient Power Conversion. Dr Leado, thank you 95 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 1: very much for being with us. Thank you. You know, 96 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 1: I can't figure out whether we should start with you 97 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:52,599 Speaker 1: telling us what it's like to be at c e 98 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 1: S with all of the new things and great televisions 99 00:06:55,960 --> 00:07:01,040 Speaker 1: and everything, where maybe start with something totally complicated light 100 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: light detection and ranging systems. The show you want to shake, 101 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 1: you know, he's the coolest thing that what's the coolest 102 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 1: thing that you've seen at the show did well. You know, look, 103 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 1: I think that the coolest things all revolve around autonomous 104 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 1: cars and augmented reality. There's all sorts of displays on 105 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 1: that right now, and uh, it's just amazing. You know, 106 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 1: our lives are going to change quite a bit from 107 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 1: both of those, uh, those developments. So how do you 108 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 1: envision our life being changed by some of these developments? Well, 109 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 1: you know, I think the autonomous vehicle really takes away 110 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: the need for individual car ownership. So you know, that 111 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:41,120 Speaker 1: redefines how cities will be defined, how we'll get around. 112 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,239 Speaker 1: And really, there hasn't been a major change in transportation 113 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: since the jet engine was developed sixty seventy years ago. 114 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 1: So this is really going to be a revolution. But 115 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 1: it'll take time. It'll take you five years, and everybody's 116 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: gonna expect it tomorrow. So um, dr Leader, this brings 117 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: us back to, uh, the substances that Pim was trying 118 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 1: to it out. Um, your company produces a substance that 119 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 1: you're hoping will be instrumental in this revolution in the 120 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 1: way that we transu we we get around, correct, that's correct. Yeah, 121 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 1: we we make products out of the gallium nitride. Uh, 122 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 1: and uh, these products are really the successor to silicon, 123 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 1: which is the foundation of all of our computer chips 124 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 1: and semiconductors. And it's it's a whole lot faster and 125 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 1: its lower cost, so it enables things like these light 126 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 1: detection and ranging systems and augmented reality systems. And in 127 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,840 Speaker 1: the next few years you'll start seeing power chords disappearing. 128 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:36,320 Speaker 1: And I don't know about you, but I don't know 129 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:39,839 Speaker 1: anybody who likes power chords. I think you've just you 130 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:43,200 Speaker 1: just made it made a convert here. I mean honestly, 131 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: you said power chords are going away, and I almost 132 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 1: jumped up and down in my seat. I see how 133 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 1: easy it is to make people happy, you know, we were. 134 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 1: I want you to just describe the actual thing, because 135 00:08:57,400 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 1: right now it kind of looks like a hockey puck 136 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 1: that sits on top of an automobile and it spins 137 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:05,320 Speaker 1: around to get that three hundred and sixty degree image. 138 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 1: It's a hockey puck type, it's a lighter, it's a 139 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 1: it's a lighter technology, and it spins around and it 140 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: creates uh almost instantaneous map of whatever it is that 141 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 1: you're around, and it's done with lasers. Now you've partnered 142 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 1: with Veladine to do something else and it's much much smaller. 143 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 1: Tell us about it. So you know, these lighter systems 144 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 1: have been around since the Google mapping cars several years ago. 145 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 1: They were one of the first users of it, and 146 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:42,440 Speaker 1: they really paint an immediate picture of the you know, 147 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 1: all the objects and three dimensions around you in in 148 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 1: in and they give you three dimensions. The problem has 149 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:52,119 Speaker 1: been they've been very expensive, so getting them less expensive 150 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: so that they can get on cars that are driven 151 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 1: by you and me has been the goal. So we 152 00:09:56,640 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: partnered with Veladine and we developed some uh some more 153 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 1: advanced integrated circuits with our gallium nitride devices that are 154 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 1: are allowing shrink and make these things smaller so you 155 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 1: can't see them, and also make them a whole lot 156 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 1: cheaper so we can put them on everyday cars. Dr 157 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 1: leto Do you expect that in the future when we're 158 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,560 Speaker 1: all sort of just being driven around by our computers. 159 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 1: Do you think that we're going to have to update 160 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 1: the programs, the systems and we go to bring our 161 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 1: cars to sort of techys to to get them fixed. 162 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 1: Me I'm just trying to think about the realities of 163 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 1: having one of these. So first of all, you probably 164 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 1: won't own the car, you know somebody. It will be 165 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:36,959 Speaker 1: a you know, transportation as a service kind of thing. 166 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 1: A car will arrive with no driver, you'll get in it, 167 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 1: you'll arrive at your destination, kind of like an Uber 168 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:45,680 Speaker 1: without a driver, which is why Uber's experimenting with these things. 169 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 1: Um So in terms of service and all that, you know, 170 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 1: the software updates will be over the air. I think 171 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 1: Tesla has already pioneered that very successfully. And in terms 172 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: of service, electric vehicles are are fundamentally simpler than than 173 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: gasoline and diesel vehicle. So I think that the amount 174 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 1: of service has been proved to be a lot less 175 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 1: on an electric car. Thank you so much. Really really 176 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: fascinating to hear what you're seeing and what you're doing 177 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: over there. Dr Alex LIEDO CEO and co founder of 178 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 1: Efficient Power Conversion talking about the future of our lives 179 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 1: in cars that drive us around that we don't own, 180 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: that have all sorts of cool little gadget you know, 181 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:26,680 Speaker 1: next week with no power courts, with no power courts, 182 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:41,320 Speaker 1: I mean, I am converted, and to get smarter on China, 183 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 1: I want to focus right now on trade we have 184 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,839 Speaker 1: Dan Moss. He is executive editor on Global Economics for 185 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News and he can be followed on Twitter at 186 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 1: moss underscore Eco. Seems appropriate, Dan, thanks for being with us. 187 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 1: Tell us the what's going on now with China and 188 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 1: President elected Don Trump and the back and forth of 189 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 1: words him. The two sides are really figuring out how 190 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 1: they're going to dance with each other after January. The 191 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 1: Chinese are probably wondering which Donald Trump walks into the 192 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 1: Oval Office that afternoon after the ceremony. Is it Donald 193 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 1: Trump the deal maker advised by Rex Tillison and Gary Cohn, 194 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 1: or is it Donald Trump the populist hitting all the 195 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 1: bases for the white working class in the manufacturing hard land. 196 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 1: While the Chinese appear to be unsure of that, they're thinking, 197 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 1: let's take out some insurance while we're at it and 198 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: say look. Earlier in the week, there was the line 199 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 1: that there's a great lot of flowers outside key government 200 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,960 Speaker 1: ministries in Beijing, but inside there are also sticks. Now 201 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 1: we're learning, we'll look. American companies have a lot invested 202 00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: in China. We all knew that the China his government 203 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 1: is reminding the incoming administration of that saying, by the way, 204 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 1: there are some things that we can do. We hope 205 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:09,959 Speaker 1: it won't come to that. We don't expect it will 206 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 1: come to that. But hey, we're here and we're watching, 207 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,319 Speaker 1: and we're waiting, and we're not necessarily going to allow 208 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 1: ourselves to be mulanova. You know, I was struck by 209 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 1: this story that was on the terminal this morning, and 210 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 1: I was struck in particular was talking about how China 211 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:26,559 Speaker 1: is preparing to step up the scrutiny of its US companies, 212 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:29,440 Speaker 1: just sort of what you were exactly talking about, dan 213 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,679 Speaker 1: Uh in a sort of way to retaliate. But there 214 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:36,440 Speaker 1: was a quote here, Um that was really crucial to me. 215 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 1: When you have a country with a large trade deficit 216 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 1: that retaliates against a country with a large trade surplus 217 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 1: with it, it's the country with the trade deficit, i e. 218 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 1: The US that wins. The country with the surplus loses 219 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:53,200 Speaker 1: every time. And America has had this trade deficit um 220 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:56,960 Speaker 1: with China has been narrowing somewhat um and yet you know, 221 00:13:57,160 --> 00:13:59,200 Speaker 1: there is this feeling, you know, who has more to 222 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:03,840 Speaker 1: lose here? They both do. And let's just take a 223 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 1: step back. This didn't get any scrutiny at all during 224 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 1: the course of the campaign. But the nature of the 225 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 1: Chinese economy and what's driving it is changing significantly, and 226 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 1: the nature of the US as economic relationship with China 227 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 1: as a result is changing as well. This image we 228 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:25,440 Speaker 1: all have of people going to Guangdong to set up 229 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 1: T shirt factories, no one does that anymore because it's 230 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 1: simply too expensive. That's gone elsewhere. When people think about 231 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: trade with China, they think of that sort of thing 232 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 1: which is completely out murdered, or they think of stuff 233 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 1: being loaded onto a ship and brought to Mexico for 234 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 1: assembly and end of the US. The Chinese economy is 235 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 1: increasingly driven by services. When people talk about the trade 236 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 1: surplus and the trade deficit, they're talking about merchandise, goods, 237 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 1: services exports from the United States to China growing significantly. 238 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 1: The Chinese current account surplus will basically disappear by twenty 239 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 1: According to the IMF, The most interesting US company in 240 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:17,600 Speaker 1: China right now arguably is Starbucks. It's a services economy. 241 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 1: The Chinese population is getting richer. Low cost manufacturing doesn't 242 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:26,960 Speaker 1: make sense there anymore. Services and consumption now account for 243 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 1: more than half of GDP. You know. So Earlier this week, 244 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 1: President elect Trump tweeted, China has been taking out massive 245 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 1: amounts of money and wealth from the US in totally 246 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 1: one sided trade, but won't help with North Korea. Nice 247 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: exclamation point. Um. You know, with a tweet like this, 248 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 1: there you have a lot of people saying, look, we 249 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 1: all have a lot to lose. Uh. International trade has 250 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: really helped the economy. You know, is there something to 251 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 1: what President elect Trump is saying? Well, look, leaving aside 252 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 1: the North Korea question, I don't want to get into. Um, 253 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 1: not a lot of FDI going on there. Look, but 254 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: they both have a lot to lose. So yeah, China 255 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:12,000 Speaker 1: has become wealthy from the opening the economy that began 256 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 1: under Dung Shooping in the late seventies. By the way, 257 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 1: it's not just US corporations that have gone in their 258 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 1: Japanese corporations, European corporations. US corporations have also done well 259 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 1: out of China. I mean, GM makes a huge amount 260 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:35,520 Speaker 1: of money out of China. Starbucks again, services economy, big 261 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 1: expansion plans within China. Hello, last time I checked, these 262 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 1: were US companies. So it really is a two way thing. 263 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 1: In fact, you could argue that they aren't really the 264 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 1: first and second largest economies on the planet, they are 265 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: actually one economy. Well, then I was just gonna try 266 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 1: to get in. Can you do fifteen seconds on them 267 00:16:54,360 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 1: buying US treasuries in the currency? Well, they buy US treasuries, 268 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 1: as do many governments. The question is really whether they're 269 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:07,960 Speaker 1: going to keep selling them at a pretty fast clip 270 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,119 Speaker 1: in order to support the u n UM And I 271 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:11,680 Speaker 1: think that's sort of the jury is still out whether 272 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:13,200 Speaker 1: they're going to have to do that um and whether 273 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: they're going to continue and whether they've they've even put 274 00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 1: in certain capital controls and they've made it more difficult 275 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 1: for people to take money out of the country and 276 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 1: to even have foreign investors in the country. But it 277 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 1: seems like some of those measures are starting to stick 278 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 1: and the economy is is solidified to some degree. Dams. Unfortunately, 279 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 1: we're gonna have to leave it there. We can talk 280 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:31,879 Speaker 1: about this for the rest of the show, and I 281 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:33,440 Speaker 1: would love to, actually, because I feel like this is 282 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 1: the big backdrop for a lot of what happens next. 283 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:51,200 Speaker 1: Dan Moss, executive editor for Global Economics for Bloomer. Well, 284 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 1: when we want to learn more about the world economy 285 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:55,680 Speaker 1: one place to look as the shipping industry. And here 286 00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: to help us his urs dir. He is the chief 287 00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 1: financial officer of t b S Ocean Logistics. Or maybe 288 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:06,959 Speaker 1: just give a quick recap of your breadth of experience 289 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 1: and tell us what's going on in the shipping industry 290 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:11,199 Speaker 1: right now that we can take away and use in 291 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:15,160 Speaker 1: our understanding of the world economy. Hey Pimm, and good 292 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 1: morning Lisa, and thanks for having me on UM and 293 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 1: happy New Year. I think that this is a good 294 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 1: subject matter to start the year off and looking a 295 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:25,959 Speaker 1: little bit macro and global shipping. My background just very briefly, 296 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 1: I was on the street for eight years as an 297 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 1: equity analyst prior to this role. But also I love 298 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:32,639 Speaker 1: that people here say on the street and it doesn't 299 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 1: mean you know, on a corner. I was in Canon 300 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,120 Speaker 1: waving my hands, hanging by the stocks all the stock 301 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 1: no no, working at de Lazard and Clarkson's uh and UM, 302 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 1: I'm proud of that. I was a lender and a 303 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:48,359 Speaker 1: banker and working another shipping companies UM. Right now in 304 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:50,679 Speaker 1: the in the dry bak shipping markets where we compete, 305 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,879 Speaker 1: we have twenty six ships under our control we have 306 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 1: no debt, a good balance sheet, but the industry itself 307 00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 1: is very much oversupplied, so there's too many ships. Overall, 308 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:04,359 Speaker 1: demand was fairly weak in sixteen, but didn't prove in 309 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 1: the second half of the year significantly as a dollar stabilized, 310 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:11,119 Speaker 1: UH and UM. They outlook for next year on the 311 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 1: demand side is for demand to slightly exceed fleet growth, 312 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,479 Speaker 1: So we do expect freight rates to stabilize four ships, UM. 313 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: But we have high iron ore inventories I think you 314 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:23,919 Speaker 1: mentioned in one of the breaks, UM. We also have 315 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 1: prices coming up. We have UM coking coal inventories in 316 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:32,639 Speaker 1: China moving up again but also prices coming high. And 317 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:34,679 Speaker 1: then we also have Chinese New York coming So I 318 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 1: expect the first quarter of this year freight weight rate 319 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:42,359 Speaker 1: wise to be weak. I would also expect commodity prices 320 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:46,159 Speaker 1: to stabilize and possibly soften, and the rest of the 321 00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 1: year actually to be much better than which was a 322 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 1: historic worst. Gil I wanted to talk about that. I mean, 323 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 1: I was last year a lot of people were talking 324 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:57,600 Speaker 1: about the Baltic Dry and how it was plunging and 325 00:19:57,840 --> 00:19:59,959 Speaker 1: the problem behind that and how it sort of indicate 326 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,399 Speaker 1: did that the global economy was slowing. This is what 327 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,359 Speaker 1: a lot of people were looking at for edification about 328 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 1: their slow growth or no growth forever type of theces. 329 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 1: All of a sudden you are seeing a little bit 330 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 1: of pickup, but not really that gangbusters growth that backs 331 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:15,160 Speaker 1: up with a lot of people are talking about now, 332 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 1: which is sudden global reflation. I mean, where is the 333 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 1: optimism coming from suddenly? Now? At the beginning of last year, 334 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:23,879 Speaker 1: there was a couple of things that are going on 335 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,199 Speaker 1: a ship against great question um there were far too 336 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:27,879 Speaker 1: many ships. There are a lot of ships being delivered 337 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 1: in the first quarter as well, but you also had 338 00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 1: a weakening dollar, and you had again a first quarter 339 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:38,119 Speaker 1: that is typically saw for commodity demand growth. So you 340 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: have the freight rates really coming off into a deep 341 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 1: historic low as a dollar stabilized. Everyone noticed the particularly 342 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 1: in Asia, particularly in China, which is of the dry 343 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,520 Speaker 1: boat demand market seaborn demand that their inventories were low 344 00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 1: and the price was extremely attractive, much cheaper than their 345 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:58,680 Speaker 1: domestic sources of iron ore and coal. UH imports then 346 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 1: improved very significantly, so year on year, Chinese iron or 347 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:05,360 Speaker 1: import import demands seaboard imports were up nine percent. Domestic 348 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 1: production was off seven UM. Steel production is moving up. 349 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:11,959 Speaker 1: There's been good stimulus in China. China has also been 350 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 1: rationalizing it's coal mines. Um. Part of that is clean air. 351 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 1: Part of that is that many of the coal mines 352 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:19,720 Speaker 1: were losing money at those prices and they don't want 353 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 1: to subsidize them any longer. And there's cheap coal available, 354 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 1: particularly from Australia coming in, so that demand has been good. 355 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 1: There's been good stimulus in China. Second half of the 356 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 1: year was rather strong or as I just want to 357 00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 1: put some numbers to all of this, because in the 358 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 1: dry bulk sector you've got maybe four groups. Right, You've 359 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:42,159 Speaker 1: got your cape size, Panamax, super Max, handy size. I 360 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:44,679 Speaker 1: was looking at the year to the comparisons. You're in 361 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:50,600 Speaker 1: your comparisons a cape size twelve thousand, three hundred today, right, 362 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 1: That's that's how much it will cost me per day, 363 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 1: right all Right? Last year, same time thirty eight hundred bucks. 364 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: So from thirty eight hundred over twelve thousand, what do 365 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: we need to take away from that? Overall demand has 366 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,159 Speaker 1: improved in the second half of the year. There was 367 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 1: very good dust scrapping of ships. Also in the early 368 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,440 Speaker 1: part of last year. There has been no ordering of 369 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 1: dry bull ships now for two years. A year ago 370 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,920 Speaker 1: was one year, right, so there's there has been a rebalancing. 371 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 1: But also then this is very very macro. But if 372 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,439 Speaker 1: you look at the commodity prices coming off as the 373 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 1: dollar was collapsing, dollar stabilizing and strengthening. Um typically we 374 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 1: think of the dollar strengthens, then it would be the 375 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:33,639 Speaker 1: commodities are cheaper. They are, yes for the United States, 376 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 1: but they're not for everyone else who buying, and they 377 00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 1: have to buy the dollars to buy the commodities. Then 378 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:41,640 Speaker 1: you end up having pricing in contango. People build inventories. 379 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:45,240 Speaker 1: Now inventories are high, looks like the dollar not the dollar. 380 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 1: Excuse me that that's about as high as they're going 381 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,159 Speaker 1: to get due to their physical constraint. Uh, they're probably 382 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 1: going to be some inventory eating over the course of 383 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 1: the first quarter, so rays come down. But year on year, 384 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 1: the overall conditions of the dry bull markets are are better. 385 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 1: Or in two thousand fifteen, I believe hedge funds that 386 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 1: had piled into the shipping industry in various ways got 387 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 1: yeah you you laugh. I mean it was like a 388 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,240 Speaker 1: blood bath, right, and when they got hammered, it was, uh, 389 00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:14,120 Speaker 1: the source of a lot of pain both at hedge 390 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:15,919 Speaker 1: funds as well as at some banks that had a 391 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:21,160 Speaker 1: lot of shipping investments globally. Um, from an investment standpoint, 392 00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:25,120 Speaker 1: are you seeing investors coming back? Well, I don't necessarily 393 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 1: want to comment on other competing companies, but I think 394 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,879 Speaker 1: that the interest level now in shipping remains as um 395 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 1: as strong as it was back then. Is that what 396 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:39,520 Speaker 1: you basically mainly do is just make a shipping investment. No, No, 397 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:43,439 Speaker 1: we were We own and control ships, so we're shipping company, 398 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,439 Speaker 1: but we do have investors who are part of that 399 00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 1: group that you mentioned. Um and uh, there was some 400 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 1: time ago, back in some time ago, but in there 401 00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 1: was a very strong story about eco ships. So there 402 00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,920 Speaker 1: was a technological advantage of the new ships being built 403 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,240 Speaker 1: and this was going to be a boom and make 404 00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,200 Speaker 1: other ships obsolete, So there was quite a bit of 405 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 1: ship ordering. Now their ships are delivering and is keeping 406 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 1: the market down right now, the interest is fundamental. The 407 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,919 Speaker 1: banks are worn out from this industry that's been in 408 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 1: a bad shape for a solid almost decade, but it's 409 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:19,840 Speaker 1: call it eight years. Banks are worn out traditional sources 410 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,600 Speaker 1: of funding a worn out Even the public markets seem 411 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 1: rather weary and worn out. Uh So it's going to 412 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 1: take some rather creative and smart investors that come in 413 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 1: and buy assets at a price that that makes sense 414 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,639 Speaker 1: and put them into commercial managers such as ourselves, um 415 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 1: that can beat the market for them. And so I 416 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 1: think the interest today fundamentally makes more sense than it 417 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:46,800 Speaker 1: did even two years ago. Thank you so much. This 418 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,440 Speaker 1: is definitely a fascinating sector and really important one to watch. 419 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:53,440 Speaker 1: Often used as a bell weather for global growth. Generally, 420 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,239 Speaker 1: the Baltic Dry is a classic index that a lot 421 00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: of people keep an eye on. Or Sdr CFO of 422 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:04,359 Speaker 1: BBS Ocean Logistics talking about the global bulk and shipping 423 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 1: industry of this year. Thank you so much for joining us. 424 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,440 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. 425 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, 426 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Pim Fox. I'm 427 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,920 Speaker 1: out there on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm out there 428 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. 429 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio