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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go from the test throwing a job spect we're saying

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Speaker 2: it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 1: All we see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to win.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to

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Speaker 3: fall and we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast,

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Speaker 3: presented by bet MGM. I'm Sill Glance. I'm joined by

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Speaker 3: Evan Abrams. Each and every week. He filled in for

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Speaker 3: me for week seventeen and eighteen, did an amazing job.

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Speaker 3: But now we are back together and we are going

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Speaker 3: to dive into the Sunday NFL Action for week eighteen.

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Speaker 3: We're also going to look ahead to wild Card weekend

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Speaker 3: and all of the finalized playoff matchups. Brandon Anderson he'll

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Speaker 3: join us a little bit later for the Hot Red

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Speaker 3: and then Patrick Everson from Vegas Insider he'll give us

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Speaker 3: a Marcus Market report rather on how sportsbooks in Vegas

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Speaker 3: faired in week eighteen. But first, Evan, we got to

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Speaker 3: go right to Sunday Night Football. We got to talk

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Speaker 3: Bills Dolphins now because the ripple effects of this game. Initially,

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Speaker 3: I thought this one was going to have a ton

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Speaker 3: of trickle down effect, but the Jaguars completely took a

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Speaker 3: shit on the field pretty much, so that pretty much

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Speaker 3: put a wrench into all that where the Bills probably

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Speaker 3: didn't need to have the game now to get their

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Speaker 3: playoff spot clinch. But Bills Dolphins twenty one to fourteen

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Speaker 3: win for the Bills total does go under a forty

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Speaker 3: eight and a half. The Bills as three point favorites,

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Speaker 3: do cover. But the Bills win the AFC East have

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Speaker 3: a fourth straight year. And to be honest, if you

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Speaker 3: think about back when we were doing the pod after

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Speaker 3: Week twelve, when they were six and six, it just

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Speaker 3: seems kind of improbable to me that they won five

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Speaker 3: games in a row since that Eagles loss. And here

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Speaker 3: we are now where I legit thought, I mean, I

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Speaker 3: was texting you off air, I thought Josh Allen was

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Speaker 3: going for the interception lead, not the AFC East title

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Speaker 3: before we were I mean two early interceptions. I mean

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Speaker 3: he has nineteen now on the year, and the first

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Speaker 3: half injuries just piling up gave Davis left Rastuell Douglas,

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Speaker 3: who was arguably their best player in their secondary, and

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Speaker 3: you know, I thought we'd start to see the Bills

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Speaker 3: kind of slowly fade from the injuries, but if anything,

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Speaker 3: it was the Dolphins that started to fade there in

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Speaker 3: the second half.

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Speaker 2: To be honest with you, I kind of think this

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Speaker 2: all started with the Titans game. The collapse and the loss.

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Speaker 2: Buffalo's as high as sixteen to one to win the

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Speaker 2: AFC East earlier in this season. Incredible and it's weird

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Speaker 2: to say, but Buffaloes looked good. But I don't think

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Speaker 2: they look incredibly dominant. They have tons of injuries, probably

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Speaker 2: an equal amount when you go all the way back

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Speaker 2: now to Miami, who literally every play it feels like

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Speaker 2: they lose two players per play. So that feels like

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Speaker 2: what's going on there. So I think Miami's just glad

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Speaker 2: the game's over and now they do have to go

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Speaker 2: to Kansas City, which this is noteworthy, right, So the

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Speaker 2: choice here was they win the game and they play

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Speaker 2: in seventy four degree weather, they lose the game and

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Speaker 2: they played zero degree weather. So the loss pretty difficult,

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Speaker 2: especially when you think about what the road is now

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Speaker 2: for them, right, because it's probably Kansas City, then Baltimore,

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Speaker 2: and then maybe Buffalo or something of that nature. Not great,

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Speaker 2: not great for Miami.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely. And the injuries I think was a key

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Speaker 3: thing to bring up because they were losing guys. Van

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Speaker 3: Ginkle left with a foot injury, but even the Bills too,

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Speaker 3: like Gave Davis left in the first half, or Steell Douglas.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he was AFC Defensive Player of the Week

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Speaker 3: last week. Is probably their best player in the second area,

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Speaker 3: and he left at halftime. But I think you were

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Speaker 3: right though, Evan. Neither defense really seemed to be sharp

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Speaker 3: because even in the first half, even though there were

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Speaker 3: some interceptions early from Josh Allen two picks from him,

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Speaker 3: one pick from Tua, they still had over four hundred

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Speaker 3: combine yards just in the first half. But it was

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Speaker 3: the Bill again that slow start, fewest points scored in

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Speaker 3: the first half since Week nine. They were able to

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Speaker 3: get a little bit of luck there with a special

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Speaker 3: team's touchdown to regain that momentum. But this Dolphins offense, Evan,

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Speaker 3: we don't have to go too hard on a talking

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Speaker 3: head kind of idea here, but again, this is just

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Speaker 3: an observation for me about the Dolphins. For a team

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Speaker 3: that led the NFL in points per game, has the

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Speaker 3: passing yards leader into at tag of Aioloa, has the

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Speaker 3: receiving yards leader in Tyreek Hill, has the co touchdown

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Speaker 3: leader Marheem Moster. They got a lot of offensive duds

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Speaker 3: this year. When you look at their full resume of

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Speaker 3: teams they've played, there's a lot of games where that

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Speaker 3: such innovative, creative offense that we always praised Mike McDaniel for.

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Speaker 3: It's not matchup proof. Like we saw a dud against

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Speaker 3: the Ravens, last time they played Kansas City. It was

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Speaker 3: a dud the Eagles, you know, the Bills in Week three. Again,

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Speaker 3: they're not matchup proof. So am I out of turn

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Speaker 3: here in saying that I think the Dolphins offense is

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Speaker 3: a bit overrated.

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Speaker 2: I think you're fine saying and I think it depends

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Speaker 2: on where they're playing. I think it depends on if

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Speaker 2: everyone's healthy. You saw a Miami team today that was

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Speaker 2: kind of decimated. I mean without Waddle and Moster. It's

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Speaker 2: just it's a completely different team. I mean, Tyrek Hill

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Speaker 2: is Tyreek Hill, but he even looked kind of hobbled

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Speaker 2: at points, So I just the way I kind of

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Speaker 2: looked at it while watching this game Miami wanted this

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Speaker 2: game to end. They did a lot of different things

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Speaker 2: to try to win the game at different points. They

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Speaker 2: were even winning at certain points, but it just felt

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Speaker 2: like they're just the walking wounded. So it's just really

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Speaker 2: hard for me to try to grade Miami's offense at

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Speaker 2: this point. I just know that they're gonna face a

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Speaker 2: Kansas City team now that has very similar issues. Right

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Speaker 2: their offense isn't running, they're not doing great things, so

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Speaker 2: I think the matchup isn't absolutely terrible, aside from the

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Speaker 2: fact they're playing in you know, zero degree weather, which

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Speaker 2: you know, historically for Miami. I tweeted this out eight

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Speaker 2: and nineteen straight up last twenty years, forty degrees and

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Speaker 2: to a stinks on the road versus winning teams two

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Speaker 2: and nine straight up, So not the best spot for them.

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Speaker 2: But I've been fatning Kansas City all year, so I

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Speaker 2: you know, to me, this is a it's a difficult handicap,

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Speaker 2: to be honest with you.

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Speaker 3: One last note before we go on to the playoffs,

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Speaker 3: I just want to make one last point about the

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Speaker 3: Dolphins offense because of course those games that I just

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Speaker 3: refer to, like their circumstance, context injuries. I get that,

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Speaker 3: but here we are in a put up, shut up moment.

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Speaker 3: Here minute fifty three left, chance to tie it. Tyreek

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Speaker 3: goes up for a catch, gets hurt, leaves the field.

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Speaker 3: Next play to a throws a pick. So when you

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Speaker 3: were talking about there just a second ago to a

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Speaker 3: stinking on the road, this isn't again. Another thing too.

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Speaker 3: The Bill secondary, they're good, but I think Kansas City's

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Speaker 3: secondary is way better. From a DVOA perspective. They're really

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Speaker 3: top five and you know, so they're going to be

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Speaker 3: having some issues, especially with Tyreek going for his nice

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Speaker 3: little Kansas City homecoming. I think that will be really

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Speaker 3: fun to watch. But let's talk about those playoff games now.

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Speaker 3: So Dolphins Chiefs. That's gonna be on Saturday, January thirteenth.

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Speaker 3: That's gonna be at eight pm Eastern, the nightcap game.

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Speaker 3: Chiefs now opened up as three and a half point favorites.

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Speaker 3: Actually they opened up at three. It's already moved to

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Speaker 3: three and a half with the over under a forty five.

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Speaker 3: But on the other side, now, as a result, the

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Speaker 3: Bills the two seed now in the AFC. They're going

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Speaker 3: to be hosting the Steelers on Sunday, January fourteenth. They're

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Speaker 3: gonna be the opener on that day at one pm Eastern,

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Speaker 3: and the bills they're spread moved fast like they were

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Speaker 3: at seven point favorites eight and a half. I'm seeing

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Speaker 3: nine and a half's out there right now at the

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Speaker 3: total of forty two and a half. What kind of

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Speaker 3: observations are you seeing here from these two games based

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Speaker 3: on the spreads of what we're seeing so far just

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Speaker 3: with early action.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll also a few things out here, So I'm

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Speaker 2: already seeing bills at eleven at certain Oh my god.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's how quickly it moved since that was like

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Speaker 3: five minutes ago recording.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's going to fly. I think that's

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Speaker 2: going to be at least doubled. And it's worth noting

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Speaker 2: because I just quickly looked it up. Double digit spreads

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Speaker 2: playoffs thirteen and nine straight up for favorite against the spread.

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry for favorites last twenty years not awful. So

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Speaker 2: these teams usually double digit favorites for a reason and

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Speaker 2: an interesting handicap because Pittsburgh probably shouldn't be in the

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Speaker 2: position that they're in. They probably got pretty lucky. And

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Speaker 2: then let's take a step back for a second. So

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Speaker 2: you've got McCarthy versus the Packers, Stafford versus the Lions.

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Speaker 2: You've got the Deshaun Watson Bowl because you've got the

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Speaker 2: Texans versus the Browns, and then you've got Ty Reek

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Speaker 2: versus the Chiefs. I mean the script good. Yeah, it's

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Speaker 2: a pretty good setup here. I think we've got a

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Speaker 2: fun wildcard week and ahead, and then we'll talk about

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Speaker 2: it a little bit later. But then you get you

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Speaker 2: give the Eagles the rest they need potentially, so doing

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Speaker 2: maybe a favor for Philadelphia, but it's gonna be fun.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be it's gonna be a good some good games.

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Speaker 3: Well it's good to refer to as well when the

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Speaker 3: Dolphins and Chiefs played, because they did play in German

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Speaker 3: earlier this year. And I think that's important because people

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Speaker 3: will look at the game log and they'll think, oh,

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Speaker 3: they played, Oh they must have played an arrowhead like no, no, no,

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Speaker 3: they were playing in Germany. Chiefs were one and a

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Speaker 3: half point favorites, but the total was closer to about

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Speaker 3: fifty seeing about forty five. Now starting to see some

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Speaker 3: of those offenses progress, Like you had mentioned about how

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs are struggling offensively to even manufacture any points,

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Speaker 3: let alone, you know. And then also their defense has

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Speaker 3: been pretty good too from a Bill Steelers' perspective. Again,

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Speaker 3: I like the fact that the Steelers might be able

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Speaker 3: to move the ball down the field with Mason Rudolph

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Speaker 3: and that offense. But wow, like their defense I think

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Speaker 3: is going to be in trouble, especially if TJ. Watt

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Speaker 3: isn't playing.

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Speaker 2: It's a lot of points for Mike, Like just off

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Speaker 2: the bat, that's a that's a hefty amount of points

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Speaker 2: for Tomlin no matter this situation. And the thing that's

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Speaker 2: funny about it, like historically Josh Allen tends to win

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Speaker 2: games by a lot of points.

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Speaker 3: At home too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, especially at home. But the handicap's tough because

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Speaker 2: the handicaps gotta be Can Pittsburgh score any points to

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Speaker 2: be able to stay in the game with Buffalo in

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Speaker 2: that sense, So we'll see. But large spread and I

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Speaker 2: wouldn't be shocked if I got a little bit higher.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely so. Will monitor that throughout the week. Make

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Speaker 3: sure to go to Action network dot com. You can

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Speaker 3: check all the line movements previews. We're gonna have touchdown,

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Speaker 3: but We're gonna have full coverage of every game for

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Speaker 3: wild Card weekend on Actionnetwork dot Com. All right, now,

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Speaker 3: let's move to depending on your viewpoint, arguably the biggest

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Speaker 3: disappointment of the day the way the Jaguars just completely

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Speaker 3: laid a turd on the field against the Titans today.

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Speaker 3: So as a result, the Jaguars lose, or we could

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Speaker 3: spin it, the Titans win twenty eight to twenty with

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Speaker 3: the total of forty two and a half going over,

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Speaker 3: but the Jags is three and a half point road favorites,

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Speaker 3: do not cover. Evan, What an implosion, man, because that

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Speaker 3: might be one of the worst disaster finished to a

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Speaker 3: season I can remember in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and even to put into the context of the

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville Jaguars started eight and three, they finished nine and eight,

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Speaker 2: and they missed the playoffs. Only one other team has

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Speaker 2: done that in the last decade. That's the twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: one Ravens. So starting eight missing time, Yeah, and for

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Speaker 2: that it's an injury. So I believe it's the fourth

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Speaker 2: time in the last thirty years that a team has

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Speaker 2: started eight and three and missed the playoffs. It's just

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Speaker 2: it's an absolute collapse. And it's also the second time

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Speaker 2: in three years that we've gotten to this point where

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville really needed to show up in a situation and

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Speaker 2: now Jacksonville Folklore Carson Wentz and Ryan Tannehill. It's just

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Speaker 2: it's it's a pretty bad situation.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 2: And then you kind of have to flip it around

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Speaker 2: just for a half second here with Tennessee Derrick Henry

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Speaker 2: nineteen for one hundred and fifty three on the ground,

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Speaker 2: his most rushing yards since October of last year. Welcome

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Speaker 2: back and goodbye. It was a nice farewell as he

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Speaker 2: did his job. Yeah, he did his job, and he

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Speaker 2: did really really good for all us Tennessee better, So

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Speaker 2: thank you.

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Speaker 3: Well. The one thing I was gonna mention too is

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Speaker 3: the Jaguars where they were from AFC South perspective, because

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Speaker 3: crazy from week thirteen onward, it's just a nightmare sequence

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Speaker 3: for the Jags, like prior to the Bengals game with

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Speaker 3: that Lawrence ankle injury where he's basically being carried out

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Speaker 3: by security. The Jags are minus eight hundred to win

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Speaker 3: that division. Texans are around eight to one. Kudos to

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Speaker 3: Brandon Ayerson, by the way for picking the Texans preseason

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Speaker 3: to win the division. But they go one and four

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Speaker 3: the rest of the way. The one game they do win, CJ.

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Speaker 2: Bethard started so also to be fair in the since

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Speaker 2: that injury, seven touchdown, seven picks for Lawrence, he was

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Speaker 2: just he wasn't the same quarterback.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for that, because this sets me up. This

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Speaker 3: is a bit of a talking head question. But I again,

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Speaker 3: I'm watching the game, I found myself asking myself, is

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Speaker 3: Trevor Lawren's good like? Is he good like? Again? Like

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of chosen one promised land like Andrew

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Speaker 3: best quarterback prospects, and Andrew Locke, all that kind of stuff,

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Speaker 3: all that talk, right, and you know, the first year

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Speaker 3: you almost don't even want to blame it on him

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Speaker 3: because of the Urban Meyer experiment. Last year they got

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Speaker 3: hot near the end of the year. They had that

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Speaker 3: really encouraging win over the Chargers and then the Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: You know they gave they played the Chiefs tough, but

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Speaker 3: you know, just that's the way it goes. But wow,

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Speaker 3: for a team, man, that was like eight and three

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Speaker 3: at one point. This is just like an epic collapse

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Speaker 3: that had ripple effects throughout the entire conference. It kind

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Speaker 3: of took some of the drama out of the Bills

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Speaker 3: and Steelers results as well, because once they lost, both

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Speaker 3: of those teams basically knew they were in after that.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, just when I watched that game, I was

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Speaker 3: just like, I cannot believe that. At the beginning of

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Speaker 3: the year, I thought the Jags could have the best

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Speaker 3: seed in the AFC. Now, obviously, with Trevor Lawrence, I

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Speaker 3: think one thing I will just say, obviously he was

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Speaker 3: dealing with a shoulder injury, dealing with an ankle injury.

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Speaker 3: Looked really good up until that ankle injury. Maybe they

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Speaker 3: can carry over some of that momentum from what they

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Speaker 3: got halfway through the year. But if they start off

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Speaker 3: slow again next year, especially with this collapse, Doug Pearson

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Speaker 3: is getting booted, like there's no way that you can

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Speaker 3: keep him along the ride of watching that collapse, and

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Speaker 3: then if they start off slow again and what will

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Speaker 3: probably be a more competitive AFC South as long as CJ.

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Speaker 3: Stroud is continuing to play that he's played because wow, CJ. Stroud, rookie,

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Speaker 3: the Texans win the AFC South, We'll go to the

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Speaker 3: Saturday game. Now, the Texans win twenty three to nineteen.

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Speaker 3: Now the total of forty seven and a half does

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Speaker 3: go under, but that's not even close to the story

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Speaker 3: for this game, because again the Texans do cover as

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Speaker 3: one and a half point favorites, and they're going to

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Speaker 3: now host the Cleveland Browns, the Deshaun Watson Bull as

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Speaker 3: Evan has referred to in the Wild Guard brown That's

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Speaker 3: going to be on Saturday, January thirteenth at four thirty

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Speaker 3: pm Eastern, and the Browns they opened up his slight

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Speaker 3: favorites about one and a half. It's now moved up

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Speaker 3: to two and a half. The over under at forty

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Speaker 3: three and a half for this game. And now, Evan,

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Speaker 3: I poached this stat from you, so I just wanted

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Speaker 3: to cite it and just at least attribute it to you.

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Speaker 3: But again, Stroud has made fourteen starts in his NFL career.

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Speaker 3: He's five and two against the spread as an underdog

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Speaker 3: and in the first half, and we saw this with

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Speaker 3: that quick opening strike to Nico Collins, six and one

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Speaker 3: against the spread as a dog. Now in the first

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Speaker 3: half for CJ.

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Speaker 2: Strout, Yeah, I mean, he's looked unbelievable and it's kind

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Speaker 2: of interesting. Listen, the handicap here when you look at,

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Speaker 2: especially from probably the public's point of view, you have

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Speaker 2: a rookie quarterback playing in his first playoff start against

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Speaker 2: a guy who probably couldn't have more experience. So I

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Speaker 2: mean that's the first handicap you might look at in

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Speaker 2: this situation. It's interesting from Houston's point of view, So

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Speaker 2: an zero to two team has now made the playoffs

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Speaker 2: an eight of the last eleven seasons, so a nice

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Speaker 2: little note for next year because usually those teams will

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Speaker 2: get a nice little bump in odds and usually ends

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Speaker 2: up happening. It's early in the year, so that's a

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Speaker 2: fun one. And looking forward since nineteen ninety, rookie quarterbacks

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Speaker 2: eleven and eighteen straight up in the playoffs, four and

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Speaker 2: eleven straight up of the last decade. Now the most

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Speaker 2: recent one brock Purty did okay. Obviously got hurt, that

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Speaker 2: all got derailed. Yeah it did okay, but historically a

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Speaker 2: tough spot. And I think the other fun angle, honestly

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Speaker 2: is Houston right two hundred to one in the preseason,

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Speaker 2: So anyone who even has even close to that type

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Speaker 2: of ticket is kind of on for a front ride

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Speaker 2: here and on for a fun home playoff game, So

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Speaker 2: that's great.

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Speaker 3: Well, another ticket that would have been hilarious. I didn't

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Speaker 3: see anybody have. It would have been having Andrew Beck

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Speaker 3: for a touchdown at thirteen to one. Because now Andrew Beck,

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Speaker 3: the fullback for the Texans, scoring that touchdown is now

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Speaker 3: the most profitable anytime touchdown score of the season, which

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Speaker 3: is just amazing considering all the players in this offense

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Speaker 3: that can get it going. The fact that Nico Collins

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Speaker 3: again he'll have nine catches for one hundred and ninety

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Speaker 3: five yards. Again, that seventy five yard touchdown on the

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Speaker 3: first play just kind of really set the tone in

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Speaker 3: that game. And also you brought up many times on

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Speaker 3: this show like how cults are a bit stinky, like

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Speaker 3: a little bit fraudish, you know, just especially when you

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Speaker 3: got Gardner Minshew a quarterback. Now, the one thing I

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Speaker 3: will say, I got into it a little bit online

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Speaker 3: just as far as the discourse about that fourth down

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Speaker 3: play call, because for me, I wasn't as mad about

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Speaker 3: the play call, but it's just you're gonna do a

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Speaker 3: fourth down play call of a screen pass to end

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Speaker 3: the game to your third string running back, and you

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Speaker 3: could say, well, you know, he had in his hands

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Speaker 3: if he had caught it, well, Jonathan Taylor and Zach

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Speaker 3: Moss were literally getting five yards of freaking carry man

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Speaker 3: all the way down the field. Run the damn ball,

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Speaker 3: Gardner Minshew is your quarterback for fox sakes, Like, just

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Speaker 3: the ball. That's all they had to do, and instead

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Speaker 3: they try to get too cute. I think they could

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Speaker 3: have won that game potentially had that again, it's easy,

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Speaker 3: would have, could have should it. But for me, dude,

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Speaker 3: that thing just really bugged me about the way that

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Speaker 3: we are kind of praising how the Colts were on there,

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Speaker 3: up and up, and then this is what your play

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Speaker 3: call comes down to, play of the year game, season

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Speaker 3: on the line, and that's your play call. I just

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Speaker 3: I didn't agree with it.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to spend too much time here. I

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Speaker 2: thought about it first before the game, about how much

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Speaker 2: that game was worth the Gardner Minshew like is it

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Speaker 2: a ten million dollar contract? Is it a twenty million

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Speaker 2: dollar contract? Like the he throws three touchdowns, Colts make

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Speaker 2: the playoffs? Like how much do we forget that he

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Speaker 2: was an inaccurate interception throwing you know quarterback all season?

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Speaker 2: Who knows didn't happen doesn't really matter because honestly, the

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Speaker 2: pass was off target to Goodson. There's a reason probably

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Speaker 2: wasn't caught. It was kind of short. The play call

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Speaker 2: is what it is. You take Taylor and Moss off

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Speaker 2: the field, and he's I think he said it was,

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Speaker 2: you know, part of the play sheet, right, it was

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Speaker 2: third down. It's a type of situation where those guys

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Speaker 2: aren't on the field normally. I think he's got in

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Speaker 2: his head like, just run the damn ball, like you said.

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Speaker 2: But let's let's move on. Colts aren in the playoffs anyway, right,

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Speaker 2: so they're done.

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Speaker 3: Yes, so we don't. We don't have to talk about

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Speaker 3: the Colts anymore. And I won't get that animated anymore

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Speaker 3: about that until we talk about Atlanta. But Steelers Ravens,

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Speaker 3: we don't have to talk about this game too much

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Speaker 3: other than the fact that the Steelers did clinch by

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Speaker 3: winning seventeen to ten. They did covers three and a

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Speaker 3: half point favorites in a rain monsoon of a game.

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Speaker 3: The total does go under a thirty four and a half.

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Speaker 3: But that Mike Tomlin road under trend, dude, is one

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Speaker 3: that I'm really monitoring for this Bills game that they're

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Speaker 3: gonna be playing because Mike Colin rode unders over the

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Speaker 3: last decade fifty seven to twenty seven and one just

401
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Speaker 3: around sixty eight percent hit rate. But the Steelers voodoo,

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Speaker 3: I think is probably gonna it is gonna end in

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Speaker 3: Orchard Park at this point, man, because I don't think

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Speaker 3: people understand how much of an impact TJ. Watt is

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Speaker 3: on this offense, how much of a pass rush that

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Speaker 3: he generates from his side of the line, and it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be a big loss for them. I mean, they

408
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Speaker 3: have other guys like high Smith who can really make

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Speaker 3: an impact every once in a while, but that motor

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Speaker 3: from what especially with the way that the mobility of

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Speaker 3: Josh Allen not having him. If the Steelers were to

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Speaker 3: pull off this win, it might be the best win

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Speaker 3: of Mike Tomlin's career. I'll just put that out there

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Speaker 3: right now as like a sign sealed approval from me.

415
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Speaker 3: But now, final game of AFC North, I just want

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Speaker 3: to talk about this one real quick. Is just Brown's Bengals,

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Speaker 3: where the Bengals win thirty one to fourteen. The total

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00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,400
Speaker 3: of thirty seven does go way over and the Bengals

419
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,160
Speaker 3: covers seven and a half point favorites. I just wanted

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Speaker 3: to give the Bengals a little bit of flowers for

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Speaker 3: still trying. And I think the reason why I say

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Speaker 3: that is because they finished nine to eight despite all

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Speaker 3: of the Burrow drama that we have seen. Is he

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Speaker 3: gonna play what's with his calf? Is its at risk?

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Speaker 3: And you know Higgins is likely gone in the off season,

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Speaker 3: so there's another weapon that they're likely going to lose.

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Speaker 3: But I just wanted to give and acknowledge the Bengals

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Speaker 3: for at least trying in the final week and really

429
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Speaker 3: just having that winning record, and also to acknowledge the

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Speaker 3: AFC North because awesome stat first time since nineteen thirty

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Speaker 3: five that a division has had all four teams finish

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Speaker 3: over five hundred and very very well done seasons by

433
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 3: each team in the AFC North. The Action Network podcast

434
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 3: is presented by Bett MGM. Used bonus code Action when

435
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 3: signing up to get up to fifteen hundred dollars paid

436
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,119
Speaker 3: back in bonus bets if your first bet loses. For

437
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Speaker 3: new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

438
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

439
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 3: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

440
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,719
Speaker 3: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, now

441
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,399
Speaker 3: it's time for the hot read from our own Brandon Anderson. Brandon,

442
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 3: what do you have us looking at for early wild

443
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 3: Card weekend lines?

444
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,640
Speaker 4: All right, let's do a little playoff. Hot Red Hot

445
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:09,479
Speaker 4: Raid went twenty nine and one in the regular season,

446
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 4: sixty nine percent hit rate. Nice already grabbed bills minus

447
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,160
Speaker 4: seven and a half at the open. Hope you trail

448
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 4: that one on Twitter. Already catching some minus tens in

449
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 4: the market out there. Now, let's go right ahead to

450
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 4: Sunday night football Rams at the Lions and gave me

451
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,400
Speaker 4: the underdog, Give me the Rams plus three and a half.

452
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 4: We all sorts of juicy storylines here.

453
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:31,280
Speaker 2: We got Matt.

454
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 4: Stafford back to Detroit to face his old team. We're

455
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:38,359
Speaker 4: gonna get Ben Johnson and Sean McVay just dialing up heaters,

456
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,640
Speaker 4: awesome plays all game long. And of course Jared.

457
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:43,639
Speaker 2: Goff against his old team too. Don't forget about that.

458
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 4: They're the ones that got rid of Gared goff and

459
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 4: I want a Super Bowl without him, and I think

460
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:51,119
Speaker 4: that's a key matchup here. Total's already fifty one and climbing.

461
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 4: We're expecting a lot of scoring here, and I think

462
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 4: on one side that's right. The Rams are gonna score.

463
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:57,880
Speaker 4: The Rams have been the number two offense in football

464
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,639
Speaker 4: second half of the season, behind only the forty nine Ers,

465
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 4: and Lions defense is not stopping him one lately, so

466
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 4: Matt Stafford, he's gonna have a good game. Kyen Owins

467
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 4: is running the football well. Cooper Cup and Pukinakua. These

468
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 4: guys are gonna just have a big game, like the

469
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 4: Rams last six games before Sunday, when the rest of

470
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 4: most their starters thirty one point three points a game.

471
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 4: At least twenty six points in every game. Maybe just

472
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,119
Speaker 4: the team total over here if you want that, but

473
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 4: I think the Rams are gonna put up the points.

474
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 4: They've won seven out of eight game since the bye week.

475
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 4: The only loss that they had was against Baltimore, the

476
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 4: team that is number one in every power rankings, and

477
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,360
Speaker 4: that was an overtime too, so the Rams pushed them

478
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 4: all the way. I'm not sure about the other side, though,

479
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 4: Will the Lions score. Will they keep up? Rams have

480
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:44,439
Speaker 4: been top ten run defense over this back half the

481
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:47,639
Speaker 4: stretch and Aaron Donald, we know he's good. The rookie

482
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 4: Kobe Turner, I think they canna get after it a

483
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 4: little bit against that Detroit interior offensive line they've had

484
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:57,120
Speaker 4: some injuries, is a bit softer there. And I think too,

485
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 4: this is where we're gonna see why the Rams traded

486
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 4: Golf into Stafford in the first place. Nobody knows better

487
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,160
Speaker 4: than the Rams how to beat Jared Goff. I think

488
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 4: Raheem Morris is going to have some nasty stuff dialed

489
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 4: up on how to get after Goff's weak spots. We

490
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 4: also saw the Relions try hard on Sunday and it

491
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 4: might cost them. Sam Laporta, the rookie tight end in

492
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 4: this matchup, maybe Khalif Raymond. Two, they don't have a

493
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 4: ton of weapons. The Rams have better weapons, they get

494
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,160
Speaker 4: the better quarterback. And then two trends I love here

495
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 4: in the wild card round, only home teams that just

496
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,640
Speaker 4: won by ten or less Detroit one by ten on Sunday.

497
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 4: Those teams are seventeen thirty and three against the spread

498
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 4: thirty six percent cover rate. That's Detroit and home teams

499
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 4: this round that missed last year's playoffs just thirteen twenty

500
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 4: nine against the spread, thirty one percent cover rate. You

501
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 4: want to grab this now, Rams plus three and a half.

502
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 4: You'll want the hook here. Detroit has already five wins

503
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,119
Speaker 4: this season by under seven, so even if the Rams

504
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 4: don't win, they might still get the cover here. So

505
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 4: Rams plus three and a half Sunday Night football in

506
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,159
Speaker 4: Detroit and then second half. We let's go to the

507
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 4: finale of the weekend, the ugly one. Let's go to

508
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:12,160
Speaker 4: Monday night football. Give me a gross Monday Night Eagles

509
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 4: at Buccaneers under forty five. We saw this matchup already

510
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 4: back in Week three is twenty five to three until

511
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:22,440
Speaker 4: we got a late Tampa Bay touchdown. Dominant Philly game

512
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,360
Speaker 4: looked a lot like a year ago where Philly dominated

513
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 4: time of possession. They almost double them up there two

514
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 4: and a half times as much yardage. Obviously, these are

515
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 4: not the same Eagles since then, but the Eagles should

516
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,640
Speaker 4: dominate the trenches. Buccaneers do not have a good run game.

517
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 4: They run mostly up the middle. That's the one area

518
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 4: where Philly's defense has remained strong. Stopping that middle run

519
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 4: so I think that's gonna needter Buccaneers offense a little bit.

520
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 4: Buccaneers offense has not been good at home, much worse

521
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,400
Speaker 4: home than on the road, twenty fifth by DVLA entering

522
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,680
Speaker 4: Sunday versus tenth on the road. They have not been

523
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 4: good on early downs. They're not good early in the game.

524
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 4: Philadelphia's defense, we know, oh that's the story, right, that

525
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 4: they are cratering. I don't know if the Buccaneers can

526
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 4: take advantage here. Mike Evans and Godwin. They'll make some

527
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 4: plays against the secondary, but I don't know if they'll

528
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 4: do enough. And on the other side, Buccaneers defense pretty solid, right,

529
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 4: They've been at tenth to fifteenth in most metrics for

530
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:21,920
Speaker 4: the season. And Philadelphia's offense really hasn't been as strong

531
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 4: as it used to be. The offense is mostly built

532
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 4: around the pass. But if you look at Jalen Hurts

533
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:30,400
Speaker 4: against Todd Bowles, this has not been a good matchup

534
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 4: for our guy. Jalen Hurts three games he's played against

535
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 4: Todd Buwles defense only three passing touchdowns and those three

536
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 4: games combined and five interceptions at least one pick in

537
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 4: every game under fifty five percent completion rate to eurn

538
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 4: seventeen yards a game. Just not kind to Jalen Hurts.

539
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 4: For whatever reason, he has not been able to save

540
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 4: this Todd Bowles defense. Todd has had some answers. So

541
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,439
Speaker 4: a lot of trends till I hear Tampa Bay andres

542
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:58,679
Speaker 4: went to eleven and six on the season. Obviously, we

543
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 4: got nine points in the Buccaneers game on Sunday home

544
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 4: underdog unders. We talked about that all season. We got

545
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,400
Speaker 4: a primetime under here on Monday night. We know about

546
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 4: that one, and then a wildcard around trend outdoor unders.

547
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 4: This will be outdoors in non division games at forty

548
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 4: one or above. Those games are twenty nine and nine

549
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 4: to the under seventy six percent. So what I love

550
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,479
Speaker 4: about this one? What do we see on Sunday? We

551
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 4: saw a lot of injuries from these teams. Right, Jalen

552
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 4: Hurts looked like he busted his finger. AJ Brown left hurt,

553
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 4: did not return. DeVante Smith was already out. I'm assuming

554
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 4: these guys are gonna play it's the playoffs, but we

555
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 4: don't know how they're gonna be. Baker Mayfield, he was

556
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 4: a question mark for the game. He was limping around

557
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:42,919
Speaker 4: out there. He's clearly not right. Again, these guys will play,

558
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 4: but you never know what injury news we could get,

559
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 4: and really we never know if these guys will finish

560
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 4: the game, And any one of those guys missing can

561
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:52,439
Speaker 4: really only help the under for us because there's just

562
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 4: not a lot of weapons anyway. So I like the

563
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 4: under here. I think that we can hit it any

564
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 4: number of ways. Either one of these teams could just

565
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 4: really lay an egg offensively, so we get a lot

566
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 4: of paths to get to the under. And you know,

567
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 4: we've been playing these NFC South unders all season with

568
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,439
Speaker 4: the Bucks and all their friends in the division. Honestly,

569
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 4: at this point, the Eagles are so mid they might

570
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:16,360
Speaker 4: just be an honorary NFC South team at this point anyway.

571
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 4: So let's stick with what's been working. And this is

572
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,680
Speaker 4: a key spot. You want to grab it now. Forty five,

573
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,159
Speaker 4: forty four and a half if you need it. Forty

574
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 4: forty one, forty three, forty four. Those are all key numbers.

575
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,360
Speaker 4: That's like the most important arrange for totals. I think

576
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:32,199
Speaker 4: this one's going to keep moving down. You never know

577
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 4: if we get any weather factor or injury news. Do

578
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,639
Speaker 4: you want to grab this above that whole range and

579
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 4: get the under forty five forty four and a half

580
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 4: if you need it. So that is our picks for

581
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 4: wild Card weekend. Sunday Night Football Rams plus three and

582
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 4: a half at the Lions, and then a Monday Night

583
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 4: Football Prime time under to close the weekend Eagles and

584
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 4: Bucks under forty five playoffs. Baby, let's have some fun.

585
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 3: All right, thank you, Brandon. All right, now, let's move

586
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 3: to the NFC East, where the Cowboys win the NFC

587
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 3: East with a convincing win over the Commanders forty five

588
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 3: to ten. The Cowboys cover is big, thirteen point favorites.

589
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 3: The over does hit as well. No team has won

590
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 3: this division back to back season since I believe two

591
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 3: thousand and five. So to me, just the fact that

592
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 3: Cowboys were able to get the division win just showed

593
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 3: that maybe at the start of the year that maybe

594
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 3: the Eagles weren't necessarily a lock the way that the

595
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 3: way that their fan base might describe. But now with

596
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 3: that win over the Commanders, we don't have to talk

597
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 3: about the Commanders really much anymore other than just acknowledge

598
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 3: that Sam Howe led the NFL in interceptions and cost

599
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 3: me a Josh Allen NFL Interception League ticket. But that's

600
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 3: neither here nor there, because we're going to talk about

601
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 3: now Packers Cowboys. Cowboys are going to be hosting the

602
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 3: Packers at four thirty pm Eastern on Sunday, January fourteenth.

603
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 3: Cowboys at seven and a half point favorites with an

604
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 3: over under a forty nine and a half. There's a

605
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 3: lot of trends that will support the Cowboys and Dak

606
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 3: Prescott in the spot even as a seven and a

607
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 3: half point favorites. I mean Dak Prescott is at home.

608
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 3: I mean he's thirty seven and seven straight up, thirty

609
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 3: one and twelve and one against the spread as a

610
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 3: favorite of six points or more. When he's a six

611
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 3: point favorite at home, he's nineteen nine and one against

612
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 3: the spread. So the one thing that I will just

613
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 3: say though, is I'm a little as a Cowboys fan,

614
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 3: I'm a little nervous about the Packers coming to Dallas.

615
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 3: And the reason being is Jordan Love has kind of

616
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 3: started to impress me. Especially if you look at Jordan

617
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 3: Love's game logs over the last eight games. Dude, He's

618
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 3: got eighteen touchdowns and only one interception, and the Packers

619
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 3: are six and two straight up in those games. They

620
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 3: make the playoffs, obviously in the first year without Aaron Rodgers.

621
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think the big takeaway here is we

622
00:30:57,360 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 3: know what the Cowboys can do when they're big favorites,

623
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 3: and they could do that. But at the same time,

624
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 3: it's interesting to see where the Packers are going to

625
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 3: be from an injury standpoint, if we're going to be

626
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 3: back to full health, where the Cowboys and Packers are

627
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 3: going to be able to see a full healthy roster

628
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 3: against each other.

629
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 2: Here, Yeah, I'm kind of with you here over a

630
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 2: touchdown feels a little inflated. I'm kind of interested in

631
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 2: Green Bay at over the number. I'll lay a few

632
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 2: things just on this game from my notes, just one

633
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 2: thing from Washington. So Howell through twenty one interceptions and

634
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,479
Speaker 2: got sacked sixty five times. No one's ever done that.

635
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 2: Most sacks with twenty plus picks was John Kitten in

636
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 2: two thousand and six that got broken today by Howell.

637
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 2: So this was a season among seasons for this guy.

638
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 2: I hope if he gets another chance, it's a different

639
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 2: situation because twenty one plus sixty five is eighty six

640
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 2: and that's just a lot of craziness.

641
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 3: Well, they do have the second overall pick now, So

642
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 3: I mean, if they're in love with Drake may or

643
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 3: maybe Michael Peanut Junior from Washington or you know whoever,

644
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 3: whoever the quarterback dujore is it's not Caleb Williams, they'll

645
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 3: have a shot at it. Or maybe even potentially the

646
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 3: Bears will talk about them in a little bit, maybe

647
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 3: they decide they're going to ride this Justin Fields rollercoaster

648
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 3: for another year, trade back and get some picks, maybe

649
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 3: get some more from the Commanders. Lock can happen here

650
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 3: for the Commanders from a quarterback standpoint.

651
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 1: But.

652
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:28,239
Speaker 3: Correlation with the Packers Cowboys game because Packers Cowboys, I

653
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 3: just as a Cowboys fan, I have a little bit

654
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 3: more of PTSD just to the Packers. With Aaron Rodgers

655
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 3: coming in. I'm not going to say that Jordan Love

656
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 3: is on Aaron Rodgers level. I'm just saying there's some

657
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 3: history there. So I'm a little nervous, especially given how

658
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 3: Jordan Love has looked in the second half of the

659
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 3: season to be.

660
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 2: Able to real And we'll say this as well. I

661
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 2: will say this, So Dallas is three twelve and one

662
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 2: ats in the playoffs since ninety seven. Dak is one

663
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 2: in five against the spread himself in the playoffs. McCarthy's

664
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 2: coach seven home playoff games is a favorite four and

665
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 2: three straight up, three and four against the spread. This

666
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 2: is just listen. They play well in the regular season,

667
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 2: they cover all these games, they do well when it

668
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 2: comes to the playoff game. Historically it just tends to

669
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 2: go the other way. So over a touchdown feels interesting

670
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 2: for a Green Bay team that has almost nothing to lose,

671
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 2: all kids all entering this game in a situation they've

672
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:21,960
Speaker 2: never been in that they might just play and have

673
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 2: fun and score some points. So we'll see how it goes.

674
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 2: But I think it's a little scary.

675
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely. So anything over seven and a half I

676
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 3: think is a healthy number, but that number may come

677
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 3: down as we get closer to kickoff. But Eagles Giants

678
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 3: just as a correlation with this, where the Giants win

679
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 3: twenty seven to ten today beat the Eagles outright as

680
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 3: four and a half point favorites. The under of forty

681
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 3: three also hits, and the Eagles are just limping into

682
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 3: the playoffs. Evan drop five of their last six games.

683
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 3: They fall to the wild Card at eleven and six,

684
00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 3: where it seemed like they had the Bill's game. It

685
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 3: seemed like they had the NFC East wrapped up, and

686
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 3: just the way that the injuries have piled up, especially

687
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 3: with you know, it just started bad and it just

688
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 3: kept getting worse as the game was going on. Because

689
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 3: entering the game they didn't have DeAndre Swift, DeVante Smith

690
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 3: had crutches walking around that Darius Slave was also up.

691
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 3: But then aj Brown gets hurt and then Jalen Hurts

692
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 3: kind of breaks his finger on his throwing hand and

693
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 3: they're down twenty four to nothing at half. So I

694
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 3: think the one thing that I would say, though, is

695
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,840
Speaker 3: they are getting to play the Buccaneers in the opening round,

696
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 3: and they might have been given maybe like a little

697
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 3: bit of a mini gift by being able to get

698
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 3: the Monday game instead of being on Sunday like the

699
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:45,280
Speaker 3: Cowboys words. So now they're gonna be playing Monday, January

700
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 3: fifteenth at eight pm Eastern, little extra day there for

701
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 3: some injury rest.

702
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 2: I think the rest is also big for Tampa. Baker

703
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:56,120
Speaker 2: did not look healthy whatsoever, was hobbling around trying to

704
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:59,400
Speaker 2: make it to the first first down line on that

705
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 2: late one. He just he just did not look healthy,

706
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:04,800
Speaker 2: so he could use the day himself. Agree there, I

707
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 2: think it's worth some context on Philadelphia. So Phillies lost

708
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 2: five to six. They started five and zero, started ten

709
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:16,840
Speaker 2: and one, finished eleven and six. Just unbelievable kind of

710
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:19,320
Speaker 2: fail at the end of the season. Since the NFL

711
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:23,320
Speaker 2: switched to a sixteen game season, two teams who started

712
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 2: ten to one ended the year with twelve wins or

713
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 2: less nineteen eighty six Jets twenty twenty three Eagles. I mean,

714
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 2: it's a collapse we really haven't seen ever. So going

715
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 2: into this game, I think it is a good matchup.

716
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 2: It's reason the spread's kind of tight, right, I think

717
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 2: we don't know from a health point of view, who

718
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 2: the heck's going to be playing in this game, so

719
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:47,439
Speaker 2: it's a little difficult overall. So I don't think there's

720
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 2: much of a handicap here for me. And then one

721
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:53,800
Speaker 2: note on the other side, Giants finished the season eight eight,

722
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 2: eight and one against the spread, six and one ats

723
00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 2: in their last seven, so they were feisty. If you

724
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 2: gambled on them, you cash them tickets.

725
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:05,399
Speaker 3: Absolutely, and I mean to Rod Taylor is infinitely better

726
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 3: than whatever Tommy DeVito was putting on the field. But

727
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 3: I just want to mention one more thing about the Eagles,

728
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 3: because it really looked like they waved the white flag

729
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 3: by halftime when they bench Jaleners. Now, I think Jalen

730
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 3: could have kept playing if it was a do or

731
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 3: die game kind of thing. But in the second quarter

732
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 3: they were outgained one hundred and eighty one yards to

733
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 3: zero at one point. And now they've got the Bucks

734
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 3: here coming up, and I know the Bucks aren't a

735
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 3: tough matchup. They beat them pretty easily. I think earlier

736
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 3: in the year there was a little bit of a

737
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:36,320
Speaker 3: garbage time touchdown at the end for Mike Evans. I

738
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 3: think that might have covered the spread. But the game

739
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:41,440
Speaker 3: was pretty much the Eagles dominating them. But you know,

740
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:42,919
Speaker 3: I guess the one thing that I was just gonna

741
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 3: say is this kind of where is this what the

742
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 3: Eagles are now? Because the Eagles defense has just been

743
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,800
Speaker 3: awful all year, dude, Like with Matt Patricia defensive coordinator, Like,

744
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:54,319
Speaker 3: they've allowed the most touchdowns of wide receivers this year.

745
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 3: They were ranking twentieth in defensive DV away versus the

746
00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:01,479
Speaker 3: pass for majority of the season the Bucks, that's really

747
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 3: what they were thriving on is just kind of gunning

748
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 3: it to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and really capitalizing

749
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 3: on that. And that's kind of what just makes me

750
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 3: a little bit worried about this Eagles team if they're

751
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 3: not fully healthy, that it could be a little bit

752
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 3: of an uphill battle against this Bucks team.

753
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know how they're gonna stop Mike Evans,

754
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 2: And even if they decide they can stop Mike Evans,

755
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,439
Speaker 2: then they're not gonna stop Chris Godwin because they can't

756
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 2: stop both of them. So as long as Baker Mayfield doesn't,

757
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 2: you know, I don't know another phrase other than probably

758
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 2: poop on the floor. I think they're gonna put I

759
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 2: think they're yeah, Like, I think they're gonna put some

760
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 2: points on the board here. I just it the only

761
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 2: thing I will say. And you can look at the numbers.

762
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 2: I feel like Baker has played much better on the

763
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 2: road than he has at home this season. He's had

764
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 2: he has like a bunch of two touchdown no interception

765
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 2: games on the road, so maybe that is something. But

766
00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:53,799
Speaker 2: it feels like a good matchup for Baker as long

767
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:56,280
Speaker 2: as he can get healthy, which he'll get the extra

768
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:58,880
Speaker 2: day and Philly will too, so should help the offense

769
00:37:58,920 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 2: on both sides.

770
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 3: Well, it correlates because he has eighteen touchdowns on the

771
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 3: road and three interceptions, And when you look at the

772
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,719
Speaker 3: Bucks ats record, they're actually, I believe, six to two

773
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 3: against the spread on the road, so they were much

774
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:13,359
Speaker 3: better on the road from an ATS bets standpoint, and

775
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:17,359
Speaker 3: the stats from Baker Mayfield align with that. But I

776
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 3: have to say though, again, Baker is the other thing

777
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 3: that I would just mention because the total did go

778
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,479
Speaker 3: under today. It was a nine to nothing win over

779
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 3: the Carolina Panthers. The Bucks covers four point favorites total

780
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 3: thirty six and a half does go under. But I

781
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 3: wanted to mention this about Baker where over those last

782
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:38,560
Speaker 3: twenty two starts. I mean, we're seeing offensive explosions every

783
00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 3: once in a while from him, but games are still

784
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:43,239
Speaker 3: typically going under when he's involved. Fifteen to seven to

785
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 3: the under in his last twenty two starts, and again

786
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 3: with a nine to nothing win over the lowly Panthers,

787
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 3: it just feels like one of the most uninspired Division

788
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:54,280
Speaker 3: title wins I can remember in recent history.

789
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:57,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it feels like forty four and a half

790
00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:01,480
Speaker 2: is a little high for Philly Tampa depending on what

791
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 2: the situation is. But again, there's so much uncertainty. I

792
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 2: just don't know if I can kind of have an

793
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 2: angle either way there.

794
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:09,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, so earlier in the year it was Philly four

795
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:12,879
Speaker 3: and a half with the over under at forty three

796
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 3: and a half with the Bucks hosting, and the Eagles

797
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 3: won twenty five to eleven. Even that one touchdown was

798
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 3: Mike Evans there at the end. So nothing of consequence here, obviously,

799
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 3: But again that's the story of the Bucks. Mike Evans

800
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,360
Speaker 3: has been unstoppable this year. He's the most profitable anytime

801
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:33,839
Speaker 3: touchdown scorer on the Bucks as well. All right, now,

802
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:37,839
Speaker 3: let's talk about another side of the NFC South. Both

803
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 3: of these teams neither of them making the playoffs, so

804
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:41,839
Speaker 3: we won't spend too much time on it. It's more

805
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 3: of a let's just have a sigh of relief and

806
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 3: this talking about the Falcons and the Saints. Now, the

807
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:53,320
Speaker 3: Saints win easily, put up forty nine points. Today, Saints

808
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 3: covers three point favorites. They pretty much almost go over

809
00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 3: the total by themselves of forty two, but coming into

810
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:03,440
Speaker 3: the game, Evan like, both teams were last and second

811
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 3: last and worst ATS record in the NFL. They were

812
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 3: combined ten twenty one and one against the spread, so

813
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:13,240
Speaker 3: somebody had to cover in this point. And it's almost

814
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 3: funny that Derek Carr probably saved his best game of

815
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 3: the year for the last one and over the last

816
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:20,920
Speaker 3: six games. I mean, he's kind of balled out. He

817
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:24,479
Speaker 3: said three games the three touchdowns are more cut down

818
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:31,400
Speaker 3: on the interceptions. But Arthur Smith, So as we're recording

819
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 3: this now, it has now just come out that Arthur

820
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 3: Smith has been let go of his responsibilities as head

821
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 3: coach of the Falcons. And I'm happy about that because

822
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 3: I don't want to openly root against a coach, but

823
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:49,840
Speaker 3: I was doing that today. Man. That fourteen play drive

824
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 3: to end the third quarter by the Falcons was so dumb. Man.

825
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:57,400
Speaker 3: They are at the one yard line, they have Bjeon Robinson,

826
00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 3: Tyler als year. Oh, let's hand it to Cordero. Now

827
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 3: let's try another screen pass. I'm just so glad that

828
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 3: the Falcons are not in the postseason and now they

829
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 3: can maybe get a normal offensive coordinator and head coach,

830
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 3: maybe even look towards a quarterback that could actually complete

831
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,799
Speaker 3: a pass. But yeah, Falcons on Saints. I don't really

832
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:18,799
Speaker 3: have much more to add to that other than just

833
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 3: they were probably two of the most frustrating teams to

834
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 3: bet on for me all year. Props, sides and totals,

835
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 3: you name it. They were just always I go left,

836
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 3: they go right.

837
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:30,440
Speaker 2: I think that's a really good way to put it.

838
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 2: I don't think I have too much more to add

839
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 2: other than these were probably two of the more frustrating

840
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 2: teams week in and week out. I think we all

841
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:39,799
Speaker 2: kind of said to ourselves after a win, you stay

842
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:42,800
Speaker 2: away from both of them. After a loss, maybe consider it.

843
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 2: And that was kind of the handicap every single week

844
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 2: from the Falcons point of view. They end the season

845
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 2: five and twelve against a spread, worst record in the NFL.

846
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:54,360
Speaker 2: Falcons hadn't lost twelve games against the Spring Stince nineteen

847
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 2: eighty four. Arthur Smith toast. I think the reason that

848
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 2: there's optimism with Smith going out is because there's so

849
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 2: many weapons on offense. Listen, if you replace Ritter and

850
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 2: we actually get a quarterback in this city, in this

851
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:11,720
Speaker 2: place to run this offense, I think it's an interesting

852
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:13,800
Speaker 2: handicap It's the reason we like the Falcons in the

853
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 2: preseason because we thought one of these quarterbacks were going

854
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 2: to be competent and neither were. So yeah, I mean

855
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:23,520
Speaker 2: that was the handicap. I just hope Atlanta doesn't draft

856
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:25,279
Speaker 2: Rock Bauers and we can move forward.

857
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 3: If they did that with already having hits and John

858
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 3: who Smith. Don't bring me down that roster malpractice rabbit hole.

859
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:36,279
Speaker 3: You't do that right now? All right, Bears Packers, We

860
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 3: don't have to talk too much about the Packers side

861
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:40,240
Speaker 3: of things. Packers wins seventeen to nine, and they clinched

862
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 3: their playoffs spot, and the toll does go under of

863
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 3: forty six. But I wanted to bring this game up, Evan,

864
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 3: because I want to talk about Justin Fields because the

865
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,800
Speaker 3: Bears get the first overall pick now with the Panthers

866
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:56,279
Speaker 3: finishing with the worst record in the NFL, but now

867
00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:59,879
Speaker 3: we have a few seasons of resume now with Justin

868
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:03,319
Speaker 3: Fields as a quarterback kind of conflicted. I feel like

869
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:05,319
Speaker 3: I see flashes, but then I see a lot of

870
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 3: times where I'm just like, we got to move on

871
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 3: from this guy. There's no way that you could pay

872
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 3: that guy what he's going to ask for and then

873
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:14,800
Speaker 3: you can't franchise tag a quarterback like that either. It

874
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 3: would be cap suicide. So again, Justin Fields ten and

875
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:22,839
Speaker 3: twenty eight straight up in his career, fourteen twenty three

876
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:25,840
Speaker 3: and one against the spread in his career, there was

877
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:28,239
Speaker 3: a streak for a long time where if opponents even

878
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 3: scored twenty points, it was pretty much an automatic w

879
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 3: for the opponents. So tell me, should we don't have

880
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:37,320
Speaker 3: to go too deep into it, but should the Bears

881
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:39,760
Speaker 3: keep Justin Fields or should they maybe just take Cable

882
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:41,800
Speaker 3: Williams and restart the clock on the salary?

883
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 2: Listen. I hear Chad Millman talk about this every single

884
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:48,280
Speaker 2: week for the last eighteen weeks. It's been a topic

885
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:51,240
Speaker 2: for Chicago. I think this is honestly, super super simple.

886
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 2: There's a ceiling with Justin Fields. Is he good? Is

887
00:43:56,040 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 2: he talented? Can they win maybe one playoff game if

888
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 2: they kept him? Possibly? Sure, But he I don't think

889
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:05,400
Speaker 2: he's the type of quarterback that's going to take you

890
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 2: to where Chicago wants to go. So I think the

891
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 2: decision is you get rid of Fields, you bring in

892
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:13,960
Speaker 2: someone else. Maybe it is a lot worse, but I'll

893
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:16,719
Speaker 2: tell you this. If you keep Fields, I just don't

894
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:19,919
Speaker 2: think you get to that point. And I think that's

895
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:23,440
Speaker 2: the simple equation, that's the answer. So you probably get

896
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:25,360
Speaker 2: rid of him, You probably get a bunch of picks.

897
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 2: You probably make the remove for you know, Caleb or

898
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 2: something of that nature, and you see how it goes.

899
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 2: You know, he might be good, he might be a superstar,

900
00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 2: he might be Mahomes, he might be this, he might

901
00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 2: not be. But I think we know what we have

902
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 2: with Fields, and I think that's the answer.

903
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:44,399
Speaker 3: I think it's a match made in him for him

904
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:46,239
Speaker 3: to play in Atlanta. Now that you just brought that

905
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 3: up with Brock Powers and you're thinking about again, if

906
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 3: Arthur Smith was still.

907
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 2: There the enemy, bring the enemy from Washington to Atlanta,

908
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 2: totally turn it around in Washington, he takes the head

909
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:01,759
Speaker 2: coach job there, goes to get just Fields, and all

910
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 2: of a sudden, we're running. I have no idea, but

911
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:04,919
Speaker 2: I just thought, especially.

912
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:07,239
Speaker 3: Because Ron Rivera is definitely getting canned in Washington, it's

913
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 3: already been reported on that front for the commanders. So

914
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:13,360
Speaker 3: but yeah, just justin Fields, I think he could still

915
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:16,239
Speaker 3: probably be a decent quarterback somewhere else. But I think

916
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:18,680
Speaker 3: his time in Chicago at this point, I think it's

917
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:22,840
Speaker 3: Brandon's course. All right, Now, let's talk about just AFC

918
00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 3: or NFC North will wrap this up here for Vikings Lions.

919
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 3: Lions went thirty to twenty. The total does go over.

920
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 3: They do cover as four point favorites. The total forty

921
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:38,360
Speaker 3: seven does wolver nevill Lions. They clinch the three seed,

922
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 3: so they are going to be hosting Detroit Legend and

923
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 3: hero Matt Stafford coming back to play with the Rams.

924
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:50,760
Speaker 3: Rams Lions is going to be on Sunday, January fourteenth.

925
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:52,799
Speaker 3: It is going to be the night cap game at

926
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 3: eight pm Eastern. Opening spreads right now, the Lions were

927
00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 3: up to about three and a half four at some books.

928
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 3: It's now down to three. But the total sky high,

929
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 3: highest total of all the playoff games at fifty one

930
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 3: and a half. And the Lions for the year, I mean,

931
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 3: just like the Dolphins earlier. Like I could point to

932
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 3: some duds you know that they've had, you know whatever else,

933
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 3: but really it's just that Ravens game, if you really

934
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 3: want to find one where it's a glaring loss. But

935
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 3: twelve and five straight up, twelve and five against the spread.

936
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 3: This year, Jared Goff at home twenty four and eight

937
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 3: against the spread. Over the last three seasons, we have

938
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 3: seen what he has done offensively when he is at

939
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:34,280
Speaker 3: home or even indoors rather compared to outdoors. It's literally

940
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 3: night and day. But really, the discourse that I took

941
00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:40,400
Speaker 3: away from this game was should the Lions even have

942
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 3: played their starters because they weren't going to move too

943
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:47,600
Speaker 3: much farther from second or third in the seeding. But

944
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:51,080
Speaker 3: it was such a bummer to lose Sam Laporta the

945
00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 3: way that they did, especially after him catching a touchdown

946
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:57,840
Speaker 3: in the game. And I mean Dan Campbell's coaching tactics.

947
00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 3: They'd taken a lot of heat recently, and like the

948
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 3: ineligible eligible receiver against the Cowboys, leaving starters in a

949
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 3: game that didn't really mean anything, some of the fourth

950
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:11,400
Speaker 3: down calls we've seen this year. So I'm kind of

951
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:14,440
Speaker 3: wondering if this might make the Rams a bit of

952
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 3: a live dog because of the volatility of maybe what

953
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:19,360
Speaker 3: was some of what we expect from Dan Campbell.

954
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:21,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the hook. If I get the three

955
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:24,080
Speaker 2: and a half, I think it's interesting. I think it's three.

956
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:28,240
Speaker 2: It's probably a you know, a dead handicap, I think

957
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 2: and correct me if I'm wrong.

958
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:30,879
Speaker 3: A La Porter hurt.

959
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:33,759
Speaker 2: I believe Raymond hurt as well, So I believe both

960
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:35,719
Speaker 2: Lions came out of that a little banged up.

961
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:38,800
Speaker 3: You saw it at the end of the branch, bran branch,

962
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 3: the rookie corner as well. Sorry, I just wanted to

963
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:42,919
Speaker 3: bring that up. That's a loss for them.

964
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:46,680
Speaker 2: But you can even tell postgame this was a a

965
00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:50,319
Speaker 2: mean mission for Dan Campbell. He looked angry like this

966
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:53,880
Speaker 2: was like this. It feels like ever since that Cowboys

967
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:57,319
Speaker 2: Lions play, this is just an anger mission for him,

968
00:47:57,440 --> 00:47:59,719
Speaker 2: Like this is something that he's going to go week

969
00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:03,800
Speaker 2: in week out and try to, you know, really dominate

970
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:06,600
Speaker 2: his opponents, and we're gonna see how it goes. It

971
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:09,360
Speaker 2: could backfire at certain points because we've seen him be

972
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:13,280
Speaker 2: a little bit too aggressive, but it's worth noting again

973
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 2: in Detroit, Goff has been just incredibly different indoors thirty

974
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 2: five and sixteen against the spread. He's covered five straight,

975
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:25,359
Speaker 2: just literally a different quarterback versus him having to go

976
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:28,359
Speaker 2: on the road somewhere else. So it's a great thing

977
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:30,759
Speaker 2: for Detroit, especially if you're gonna be injured going into

978
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 2: this game, and I think it's just also sports are

979
00:48:34,120 --> 00:48:36,520
Speaker 2: just beautiful, right, I mean, Stafford, we get the game,

980
00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 2: he finally gets to play a playoff game back in Detroit.

981
00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 2: It's just beautiful marketing. The NFL gets exactly what it wants,

982
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 2: so can't wait for that.

983
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:46,959
Speaker 3: What I think is the gonna be the real key

984
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:49,359
Speaker 3: factor between Rams and Lions is going to be that

985
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:52,840
Speaker 3: Lion's pass rush, because remember we talked about Stafford and

986
00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:55,960
Speaker 3: when he gets protected. When he gets protected, he looks

987
00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 3: Hall of Fame. When he doesn't, he looks like the

988
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 3: old man following down on the sidewalk.

989
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:03,440
Speaker 2: Like, and I don't know how you know how about this.

990
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 2: I don't know how you don't bet Aiden Hutchinson getting

991
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 2: a sack, Like, I'm gonna have to see what those

992
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:10,720
Speaker 2: odds come out. Yeah, but even you know, you assume,

993
00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:12,919
Speaker 2: I think you're completely right. And I think that type

994
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:15,439
Speaker 2: of handicap is probably the right way to go, even

995
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:17,400
Speaker 2: if the Rams get back into the game. It feels

996
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 2: like that's, you know, a good handicap, Yeah for sure.

997
00:49:21,080 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 3: So if we get us to three and a half,

998
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 3: I think that's where you want to go, is on

999
00:49:24,239 --> 00:49:26,880
Speaker 3: the Rams side of things, but fifty one and a

1000
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 3: half the way that the unders are trending in this

1001
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 3: in the NFL this year, you could probably wait closer

1002
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 3: to kickoff and you might even see a forty nine

1003
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 3: and a half because the public is seeming to be

1004
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:40,879
Speaker 3: coming along and coming aboard the under train. I feel

1005
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:43,440
Speaker 3: like for years it always was overs overs, overs, and

1006
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 3: maybe that's more of a prop thing, But now public

1007
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 3: has started to come around on those unders. Might see

1008
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 3: that total come down a little bit and then maybe

1009
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 3: you want to consider it over in that spot. But

1010
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:54,839
Speaker 3: I think the Rams are definitely a live dog.

1011
00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 2: One thing, I will say totals fifty or more since

1012
00:49:57,560 --> 00:50:00,600
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen in the playoffs, fourteen and six to the under.

1013
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:02,759
Speaker 2: Oh I'm sorry, I can't read fourteen and eight to

1014
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:05,879
Speaker 2: the under. But still okay, under under by three point

1015
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:09,160
Speaker 2: four points per game, so maybe a little inflated.

1016
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:11,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I mean I think touchdown scores, you're going

1017
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 3: to see it two just from that market where you're

1018
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 3: going to see probably four or five guys at minus

1019
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:19,799
Speaker 3: odds and whenever that usually happens. And under is very

1020
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 3: live because you have to start looking now at guys

1021
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:25,480
Speaker 3: like mid mid tier for touchdown scores like you're going

1022
00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:27,880
Speaker 3: to see two or three guys on the Lion side

1023
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:30,360
Speaker 3: and two guys on the Rams side that are definitely

1024
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:33,760
Speaker 3: going to be minus odds, specifically the running backs as well.

1025
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:36,400
Speaker 3: Let's talk about Seahawks Cardinals quickly. We don't have to

1026
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:39,359
Speaker 3: go too much into this, but the Seahawks, as we'll

1027
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:41,840
Speaker 3: comeback win, you know, they win twenty one to twenty.

1028
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:44,319
Speaker 3: The total does go under, but they don't cover as

1029
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:47,239
Speaker 3: three point favorites, and the underhits of forty seven and

1030
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:50,439
Speaker 3: a half just late comeback a little too little, too late.

1031
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:53,480
Speaker 3: But the one note I wanted to mention I posted

1032
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:56,319
Speaker 3: this online a couple of days ago, was the fun

1033
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 3: part for me was Tyler Lockett because he did catch

1034
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:01,920
Speaker 3: that game winning touch down and just an interesting trend

1035
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:04,319
Speaker 3: for me. But I put this out there that he

1036
00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:07,879
Speaker 3: had caught a touchdown in five years straight in the

1037
00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 3: season finale of the regular season. Well, he caught a

1038
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:13,640
Speaker 3: touchdown again in Week eighteen, six years in a row.

1039
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:15,360
Speaker 3: Now that he has caught a touchdown in the final

1040
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:18,400
Speaker 3: game of the regular season, he's around plus two hundred.

1041
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:22,680
Speaker 3: But the Cardinals finished the season around eight and eight

1042
00:51:22,719 --> 00:51:25,280
Speaker 3: against the spread or sorry, a nine to eight against

1043
00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:29,360
Speaker 3: the spread, and with that, I think they're going to

1044
00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:31,239
Speaker 3: be a pretty frisky team next year. I think I

1045
00:51:31,280 --> 00:51:33,360
Speaker 3: was pretty impressed with the fact that they brought Kyler

1046
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:36,360
Speaker 3: back halfway through the year, especially when they were already

1047
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:38,480
Speaker 3: around like two and six and not even close to

1048
00:51:38,520 --> 00:51:43,480
Speaker 3: playoff contention. But those Eagles coordinators, both with the Colts

1049
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:46,880
Speaker 3: and the Cardinals, I think if you took a step

1050
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:48,919
Speaker 3: back and just looked at the way these teams were

1051
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 3: projected at the start of the year and where they finished,

1052
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:52,320
Speaker 3: not bad.

1053
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:55,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're right there. I think Arizona's missing

1054
00:51:55,360 --> 00:51:58,279
Speaker 2: a defense. I think that's kind of simple. We get

1055
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:01,920
Speaker 2: in week out, no pressure, just too many first downs,

1056
00:52:01,960 --> 00:52:04,799
Speaker 2: allowed too many different things across the board that just

1057
00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 2: made them vulnerable. So I think they do need to

1058
00:52:07,040 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 2: make it just to have a better defense to help

1059
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 2: Kyler and kind of even it out a little bit. Also,

1060
00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:15,399
Speaker 2: they've lost eight straight games with the NFC West straight up,

1061
00:52:15,440 --> 00:52:18,200
Speaker 2: so it just they've struggled a little bit in division.

1062
00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:21,040
Speaker 2: Today was they were one in thirteen ats 's the

1063
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:24,640
Speaker 2: NFC West entering today obviously get the cover only losing

1064
00:52:24,680 --> 00:52:26,640
Speaker 2: by one, but just kind of a little bit of

1065
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 2: a tough run for them, so I think they just

1066
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:32,080
Speaker 2: need to get a little bit more competitive. Also turning

1067
00:52:32,080 --> 00:52:35,880
Speaker 2: into Seattle for a quick second, Pete Carroll impressive nonetheless,

1068
00:52:35,920 --> 00:52:39,239
Speaker 2: Like every single year he figures out a way, no

1069
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:41,439
Speaker 2: matter who is the quarterback on any of his teams,

1070
00:52:41,480 --> 00:52:44,200
Speaker 2: whether it's Russ or Gino or you know, even years

1071
00:52:44,239 --> 00:52:46,840
Speaker 2: where he's had to go to backups. Fourteen years Seattle

1072
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 2: and drew Locke nine to four and one over to

1073
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 2: the over in his win total, never won less than

1074
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 2: seven games. I mean, he's kind of Mike Tomlin ish

1075
00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:58,000
Speaker 2: in that sense. It's just no matter what, just pencil

1076
00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 2: and Pete Carroll is figuring something out win seven or

1077
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:01,320
Speaker 2: eight games.

1078
00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:06,120
Speaker 3: The description that you used earlier of justin fields, that's

1079
00:53:06,200 --> 00:53:08,719
Speaker 3: kind of how I feel about Geno Smith too, like

1080
00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 3: where I kind of know the ceiling. Like I feel

1081
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:15,480
Speaker 3: like from a talent standpoint, he has a ton You

1082
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:16,600
Speaker 3: like Fields better than Geno?

1083
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:19,720
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, I think there's more. I think there's more upside.

1084
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:23,759
Speaker 2: I think with Gino it's a little we've seen We've

1085
00:53:23,800 --> 00:53:25,800
Speaker 2: seen it. Like, I think there's a little more upside

1086
00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:29,120
Speaker 2: with Fields, where if Fields went somewhere else, Maybe there's

1087
00:53:29,120 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 2: something else to unlock. I think we've unlocked with Gino.

1088
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:35,040
Speaker 2: I think we've seen what there is to see there.

1089
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:37,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was about to say we have. If we

1090
00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:40,720
Speaker 3: haven't peaked yet with that Gino, I don't know what's next,

1091
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:43,600
Speaker 3: all right, there's only a few games left. None of

1092
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:46,719
Speaker 3: these factored in really to the playoff picture, so we'll

1093
00:53:46,760 --> 00:53:49,560
Speaker 3: go through these pretty quickly. But Broncos Raiders. Raiders win

1094
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:53,080
Speaker 3: twenty four to seventeen. Total does go over thirty seven,

1095
00:53:53,120 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 3: and the Raiders do covers three point favorites Rams forty

1096
00:53:56,640 --> 00:53:58,880
Speaker 3: nine Ers. The Rams do win twenty one to twenty.

1097
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:02,239
Speaker 3: Carson Wentz scores a touchdown for the third straight time

1098
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:04,840
Speaker 3: against the forty nine Ers in his career. The total

1099
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:08,680
Speaker 3: does go over of forty and the Niners lose as

1100
00:54:08,719 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 3: four point favorites, and then Chiefs Chargers. Chiefs win thirteen

1101
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:15,000
Speaker 3: to twelve. Total does go under of thirty five, but

1102
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:19,120
Speaker 3: the Chargers is three point favorites, do not win or cover.

1103
00:54:19,200 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 3: But finally, I've been saving this one specifically for you

1104
00:54:22,680 --> 00:54:24,520
Speaker 3: because I wanted to talk about this now. This is

1105
00:54:24,520 --> 00:54:28,840
Speaker 3: the final game we'll talk about. Jets, Patriots, so Jets

1106
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:33,600
Speaker 3: win seventeen to three total does go under a historic total,

1107
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:35,880
Speaker 3: by the way, a total of twenty nine, and it

1108
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:39,280
Speaker 3: still went under. And the Patriots is two point favorites

1109
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:44,240
Speaker 3: lose outright for the first time in fifteen games against

1110
00:54:44,239 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 3: the Jets. Lucky Number sixteen as they call it in

1111
00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:52,279
Speaker 3: New York finally beat the Patriots. Honestly, I feel like

1112
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:55,160
Speaker 3: the snowball was a little bit wasted on the Jets

1113
00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:57,440
Speaker 3: Patriots because, like from a visual standpoint, like I have

1114
00:54:57,520 --> 00:54:59,400
Speaker 3: my kids watching and they were just like wow, like

1115
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 3: it looked really cool. And then it's like, yeah, we're

1116
00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:03,719
Speaker 3: probably not gonna see a lot of touchdowns in this game,

1117
00:55:03,800 --> 00:55:06,239
Speaker 3: so don't be surprised if it's just a lot of

1118
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:07,160
Speaker 3: people falling down.

1119
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:12,120
Speaker 2: We usually talk about snovers. This wasn't a snowver because

1120
00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:15,240
Speaker 2: it can't be a snover with Billy Zappy and Trevor Simeon.

1121
00:55:15,520 --> 00:55:18,960
Speaker 2: So I'm glad we never even had that discussion. It's

1122
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:21,799
Speaker 2: probably worth mentioning close twenty eight and a half, which

1123
00:55:21,840 --> 00:55:24,040
Speaker 2: would be the lowest over under in any game since

1124
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:28,880
Speaker 2: nineteen eighty and it went under. Shocker. It's also funny

1125
00:55:28,880 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 2: I tweeted this out earlier. So the four lowest totals

1126
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:35,400
Speaker 2: since nineteen eighty college football and NFL within the last

1127
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:38,240
Speaker 2: like ten months. So obviously there's some sort of offense

1128
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:42,880
Speaker 2: problem across sports. But this was a chess move. Was

1129
00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:46,200
Speaker 2: this was just funny to me that Belichick is the

1130
00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:48,800
Speaker 2: game that he loses to break the fifteen game streak

1131
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:53,120
Speaker 2: to basically pull the Jets back like five draft selections.

1132
00:55:53,200 --> 00:55:56,160
Speaker 2: Just a perfect chef's kiss to end it all.

1133
00:55:56,360 --> 00:55:58,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, we remember we talked about this. I think was

1134
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:00,640
Speaker 3: where I was talking about how where he would take

1135
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:02,719
Speaker 3: Mac Jones out and put Bailey's appy in for like

1136
00:56:02,719 --> 00:56:04,640
Speaker 3: a series at the end of the game. Kind of thing,

1137
00:56:04,760 --> 00:56:08,480
Speaker 3: These checkers moves that other gms are making. Bill's over

1138
00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:11,480
Speaker 3: here playing chess. But Bill, is he going to be

1139
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:13,439
Speaker 3: back with the Patriots next year? I mean, we don't

1140
00:56:13,480 --> 00:56:16,200
Speaker 3: have to go too deep into that kind of conversation, but.

1141
00:56:16,520 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 2: Sure, I mean, it was.

1142
00:56:18,680 --> 00:56:20,480
Speaker 3: A bad luck this year. Man, it was a bad

1143
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:24,839
Speaker 3: look this year. And I'm just not sure that if

1144
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:27,000
Speaker 3: I'm Robert Kraft, I can give him the keys to

1145
00:56:27,040 --> 00:56:30,239
Speaker 3: the kingdom on drafting the next player here of the

1146
00:56:30,800 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 3: arguably the next franchise player.

1147
00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:35,640
Speaker 2: My opinion. I think it's better they go their separate ways.

1148
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:38,920
Speaker 2: I think Bill could take another job, start fresh. So

1149
00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:41,759
Speaker 2: maybe maybe put on maybe put on a pair of shorts,

1150
00:56:42,040 --> 00:56:44,359
Speaker 2: maybe go to the Chargers, something like that. I think

1151
00:56:44,400 --> 00:56:49,680
Speaker 2: Crafts goes somewhere different, starts anew and Bill does Craft

1152
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:52,879
Speaker 2: a favor by getting him the better draft pick. He

1153
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:55,319
Speaker 2: also turns the Jets clock back right now you can

1154
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:58,600
Speaker 2: start at zero and have another coach win fifteen straight

1155
00:56:58,880 --> 00:57:01,360
Speaker 2: against the Jets. So I think he did them a favor.

1156
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:07,320
Speaker 3: Look at that. Bill Belichick saint just a mother Teresa

1157
00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:09,960
Speaker 3: of football, just doing people favors all the time here,

1158
00:57:10,520 --> 00:57:14,120
Speaker 3: all right. So that is week eighteen in the books.

1159
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:17,200
Speaker 3: Now let's check in with Patrick Everson with Vegas Insider

1160
00:57:17,240 --> 00:57:20,440
Speaker 3: to see how sportsbooks fared in Las Vegas for week eighteen.

1161
00:57:20,680 --> 00:57:23,120
Speaker 1: Patrick, Hey, Jill, thanks for having me on the Action

1162
00:57:23,280 --> 00:57:27,880
Speaker 1: Network podcast for NFL Week eighteen. Wrapping up NFL Week eighteen,

1163
00:57:27,920 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 1: also looking ahead to Super wild Card weekend. An interesting

1164
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:35,560
Speaker 1: Saturday and Sunday. At the books, Shill kind of a

1165
00:57:35,560 --> 00:57:38,840
Speaker 1: mixed bag. I think most books overall probably won, but

1166
00:57:38,880 --> 00:57:41,840
Speaker 1: in some cases it wasn't necessarily a whole lot. However,

1167
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:44,760
Speaker 1: What did contribute to the win was maybe a little

1168
00:57:44,800 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 1: bit less the games themselves than some of the futures

1169
00:57:48,320 --> 00:57:53,280
Speaker 1: decisions that arose out of especially Sunday's games, and especially

1170
00:57:53,760 --> 00:57:56,720
Speaker 1: the Jaguars Titans game. There were a couple of oddsmakers

1171
00:57:56,760 --> 00:57:58,720
Speaker 1: who told me they were upside down to the Jaguars

1172
00:57:59,080 --> 00:58:01,920
Speaker 1: not only in vision futures to win the AFC South,

1173
00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:05,200
Speaker 1: but also with the Jaguar season win total of nine

1174
00:58:05,200 --> 00:58:08,080
Speaker 1: and a half. The Jaguars don't win the AFC South

1175
00:58:08,360 --> 00:58:11,000
Speaker 1: and they don't clear their nine and a half win total.

1176
00:58:11,320 --> 00:58:13,200
Speaker 1: And they said the same situation was true of the

1177
00:58:13,240 --> 00:58:15,720
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons, with a win total generally of eight and

1178
00:58:15,760 --> 00:58:18,520
Speaker 1: a half. The Falcons failed to get to nine wins

1179
00:58:18,840 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 1: with their blowout loss.

1180
00:58:20,520 --> 00:58:21,080
Speaker 3: To the Saints.

1181
00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:23,800
Speaker 1: So those two decisions in particular helped make it a

1182
00:58:23,880 --> 00:58:26,320
Speaker 1: better day for a few Vegas odds makers and probably

1183
00:58:26,320 --> 00:58:30,080
Speaker 1: some odds makers across the country. Some interesting tidbits there

1184
00:58:30,080 --> 00:58:32,360
Speaker 1: were a lot of There was a lot of action

1185
00:58:32,720 --> 00:58:37,240
Speaker 1: on the bet of no touchdowns and different books places

1186
00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:40,320
Speaker 1: in different categories. Some of them had no touchdowns scored

1187
00:58:40,560 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 1: in the first player to score a touchdown, some of

1188
00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:44,960
Speaker 1: them had any time touchdown and.

1189
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:46,640
Speaker 2: You could choose no.

1190
00:58:47,360 --> 00:58:49,440
Speaker 1: Well, a lot of people chose no. In that Jets

1191
00:58:49,440 --> 00:58:54,800
Speaker 1: Patriots game, including me at plus seventeen forty could have

1192
00:58:54,840 --> 00:58:57,640
Speaker 1: been diving into a ton of chilies, money and bottomless

1193
00:58:57,720 --> 00:59:00,919
Speaker 1: chips and salsa. But breeseall had rip off that late

1194
00:59:01,000 --> 00:59:03,200
Speaker 1: touchdown run and break my heart and take a big

1195
00:59:03,240 --> 00:59:05,640
Speaker 1: win away from me and probably a lot of other people,

1196
00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:07,600
Speaker 1: and probably a bigger win for others because I'm just

1197
00:59:07,640 --> 00:59:11,240
Speaker 1: betting hashtag Chili's money. And then, of course the Bills

1198
00:59:11,240 --> 00:59:12,919
Speaker 1: Dolphins game. That was the biggest game of the week

1199
00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:16,240
Speaker 1: for sure, and most books definitely needed the Dolphins in

1200
00:59:16,280 --> 00:59:18,760
Speaker 1: this game, So the fact that the Bills got their

1201
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:21,120
Speaker 1: won and covered took away from their bottom line a

1202
00:59:21,160 --> 00:59:22,400
Speaker 1: little bit. Like I said, it was kind of a

1203
00:59:22,440 --> 00:59:24,000
Speaker 1: mixed bag that may have even made it a losing

1204
00:59:24,040 --> 00:59:26,160
Speaker 1: weekend for some books. And in fact, one oddsmaker told

1205
00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:29,280
Speaker 1: me our weekend comes down to the last game. We

1206
00:59:29,360 --> 00:59:33,360
Speaker 1: need Miami. Especially in the futures market, they saw multiple

1207
00:59:33,360 --> 00:59:35,600
Speaker 1: five figure voyagers on the Bills to win the division

1208
00:59:36,240 --> 00:59:39,320
Speaker 1: title the AFC East again kind of talking about this

1209
00:59:39,320 --> 00:59:41,600
Speaker 1: whole thing with the Jags and the Falcons and so forth.

1210
00:59:42,080 --> 00:59:46,880
Speaker 1: Division titles and win season win totals. He said a

1211
00:59:46,960 --> 00:59:49,000
Speaker 1: Miami win would make our weekend. They did not get

1212
00:59:49,000 --> 00:59:50,760
Speaker 1: the Miami win, nor did they get a man at

1213
00:59:50,800 --> 00:59:56,280
Speaker 1: Miami cover. Now moving along to Super wild Card weekend.

1214
00:59:56,320 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 1: Because I'm generous of heart, even very late on a

1215
00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:01,480
Speaker 1: Sunday night, as I speak to you, I'm gonna spin

1216
01:00:01,520 --> 01:00:03,840
Speaker 1: you through all six games real quick. With one Vegas

1217
01:00:03,840 --> 01:00:07,320
Speaker 1: odds maker I spoke with about what happened. Brown's are

1218
01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:10,200
Speaker 1: the first game out of the gate against the Houston Texans.

1219
01:00:10,240 --> 01:00:11,840
Speaker 1: It's a rematch of a game a couple of weeks ago,

1220
01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:14,520
Speaker 1: but the Texans were without CJ. Stroud in that game.

1221
01:00:14,800 --> 01:00:16,640
Speaker 1: Brown's on the road again. This is that we were

1222
01:00:16,680 --> 01:00:18,280
Speaker 1: on the road the last time as well, in a

1223
01:00:18,680 --> 01:00:21,400
Speaker 1: pretty easy victory. Brown's open minus one and a half

1224
01:00:21,600 --> 01:00:23,840
Speaker 1: already up to two and a half with this odds maker,

1225
01:00:24,320 --> 01:00:26,520
Speaker 1: and that the odds maker said, I think that's a

1226
01:00:26,520 --> 01:00:29,320
Speaker 1: result of the market not typically trusting a rookie quarterback

1227
01:00:29,320 --> 01:00:31,960
Speaker 1: in this situation. Also, the success rate of a rookie

1228
01:00:32,040 --> 01:00:35,000
Speaker 1: quarterback rookie head coach in the postseason is pretty low,

1229
01:00:35,040 --> 01:00:37,920
Speaker 1: and he said the market tends to bet against that.

1230
01:00:38,480 --> 01:00:41,760
Speaker 1: Dolphins against the Chiefs on Saturday night opens Chiefs minus

1231
01:00:41,800 --> 01:00:44,000
Speaker 1: three and a half, stays Chiefs minus three and a half.

1232
01:00:44,440 --> 01:00:47,160
Speaker 1: And the odds maker noted when these two teams played

1233
01:00:47,160 --> 01:00:50,320
Speaker 1: in Germany and it actually closed Dolphins minus one. Remember

1234
01:00:50,360 --> 01:00:52,440
Speaker 1: the Chiefs won that game twenty one to fourteen. But

1235
01:00:52,480 --> 01:00:54,920
Speaker 1: he said, this ain't that game, and it's going to

1236
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:57,200
Speaker 1: be freezing cold. He said the windshill could be below zero.

1237
01:00:57,240 --> 01:01:00,520
Speaker 1: That's not Dolphins weather. He got a QB from Hawaii

1238
01:01:00,520 --> 01:01:03,160
Speaker 1: who's never started a playoff game against a guy who's

1239
01:01:03,160 --> 01:01:07,920
Speaker 1: played a zillion of these cold home playoff games. So

1240
01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:10,760
Speaker 1: that's certainly an issue there. Remember in last year's playoffs,

1241
01:01:10,760 --> 01:01:12,640
Speaker 1: Miami went up to Buffalo, and I believe he had

1242
01:01:12,680 --> 01:01:16,640
Speaker 1: a backup quarterback in that game, Steelers against the Buffalo Bills.

1243
01:01:16,720 --> 01:01:19,840
Speaker 1: That's the opening game on Sunday. This game opens Bills ten,

1244
01:01:20,160 --> 01:01:21,960
Speaker 1: actually went down to Bills nine and a half. The

1245
01:01:21,960 --> 01:01:24,000
Speaker 1: oddsmaker said, we were looking for a nibble at ten,

1246
01:01:24,040 --> 01:01:25,480
Speaker 1: and we got it. They were hoping to see a

1247
01:01:25,480 --> 01:01:27,920
Speaker 1: little bit of sharp playing. They did double digits in

1248
01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:30,360
Speaker 1: a playoff game. He said that tends to be something

1249
01:01:30,400 --> 01:01:33,720
Speaker 1: that the wise guys are looking for. However, he still

1250
01:01:33,760 --> 01:01:36,360
Speaker 1: expects the public to very much get involved on Buffalo

1251
01:01:36,480 --> 01:01:39,040
Speaker 1: and expects that the book is going to need the

1252
01:01:39,080 --> 01:01:42,000
Speaker 1: Steelers in this game for sure. Packers and Dallas in

1253
01:01:42,040 --> 01:01:45,400
Speaker 1: the middle game of the Sunday Sandwich of Wildcard weekend games,

1254
01:01:46,080 --> 01:01:48,760
Speaker 1: and this game opens Dallas minus seven and a half.

1255
01:01:48,800 --> 01:01:49,960
Speaker 1: He said, there was a little bit of debate on

1256
01:01:50,000 --> 01:01:52,760
Speaker 1: the open number, but Dallas plays very well at home,

1257
01:01:53,320 --> 01:01:54,920
Speaker 1: and he said he would expect the public to be

1258
01:01:54,960 --> 01:01:57,720
Speaker 1: all over Dallas even though Jordan Love has looked good.

1259
01:01:57,800 --> 01:02:00,240
Speaker 1: Remember he is a first year full time starter. He said,

1260
01:02:00,200 --> 01:02:01,880
Speaker 1: I would be very surprised if we don't actually need

1261
01:02:01,880 --> 01:02:04,720
Speaker 1: green Bay outright in this game, and I don't think

1262
01:02:04,720 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 1: anybody else would be surprised if they need green Bay

1263
01:02:06,600 --> 01:02:09,439
Speaker 1: out wide as well. Rams against Detroit on Sunday night

1264
01:02:09,760 --> 01:02:12,480
Speaker 1: opens Rams minus or lions. I should say minus three

1265
01:02:12,560 --> 01:02:15,760
Speaker 1: minus one twenty still minus three minus one twenty. And

1266
01:02:15,880 --> 01:02:18,000
Speaker 1: the reason they went three minus one twenty instead of

1267
01:02:18,040 --> 01:02:20,120
Speaker 1: going right to three and a half, the automaker said,

1268
01:02:20,160 --> 01:02:21,640
Speaker 1: I think that would be inviting the wise guys on

1269
01:02:21,680 --> 01:02:24,040
Speaker 1: the dog right out of the gate. He said, it's

1270
01:02:24,080 --> 01:02:25,640
Speaker 1: hard to know how the public is going to bet this,

1271
01:02:25,680 --> 01:02:27,480
Speaker 1: but he thinks the public is going to be on Detroit,

1272
01:02:27,480 --> 01:02:30,200
Speaker 1: and at the very least, you got three games on Sunday,

1273
01:02:30,200 --> 01:02:32,880
Speaker 1: and the first two teams, he noted, are pretty sizable favorites,

1274
01:02:33,120 --> 01:02:35,520
Speaker 1: so it's pretty easy to put your money line parlay together.

1275
01:02:35,600 --> 01:02:39,400
Speaker 1: Buffalo to Dallas to Detroit egals profit. We'll see if

1276
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:42,000
Speaker 1: it actually equals profit. The NFL sometimes tends to think

1277
01:02:42,000 --> 01:02:44,480
Speaker 1: otherwise NFL betting. And then the Monday night game to

1278
01:02:44,480 --> 01:02:46,600
Speaker 1: wrap it all up, and on Super Wildcar weekend, you

1279
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:50,120
Speaker 1: got the Eagles at the Buccaneers. The Eagles are absolutely reeling,

1280
01:02:50,560 --> 01:02:53,600
Speaker 1: but they opened minus two already up to two and

1281
01:02:53,600 --> 01:02:55,439
Speaker 1: a half, and the oddsmaker said, we took sharp action

1282
01:02:55,440 --> 01:02:58,080
Speaker 1: on Philadelphia minus two on Sunday night, but he thinks

1283
01:02:58,120 --> 01:02:59,800
Speaker 1: this spread is going to stay right in this range

1284
01:02:59,840 --> 01:03:01,120
Speaker 1: two too and a half. He said, I would be

1285
01:03:01,160 --> 01:03:03,640
Speaker 1: surprised if it got to three because Philly is playing

1286
01:03:03,760 --> 01:03:05,600
Speaker 1: so bad right now. I know that Tampa doesn't look

1287
01:03:05,640 --> 01:03:08,320
Speaker 1: very good either, but he thinks betters are probably gonna

1288
01:03:08,360 --> 01:03:11,320
Speaker 1: hold their nose and take the Eagles in this game.

1289
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:13,440
Speaker 1: So there you having a little look back at NFL

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01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:16,080
Speaker 1: Week eighteen, wrapping up how things went for some of

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01:03:16,120 --> 01:03:18,840
Speaker 1: the books in that final week of the regular season,

1292
01:03:18,840 --> 01:03:22,680
Speaker 1: and I look ahead to all six Super Wildcard weekend

1293
01:03:22,760 --> 01:03:24,640
Speaker 1: games and opening odds and a little bit of early

1294
01:03:24,680 --> 01:03:27,600
Speaker 1: activity and so forth, because I am full service.

1295
01:03:27,720 --> 01:03:30,200
Speaker 3: Jill, have a good week. Thank you, Patrick, Thank you

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01:03:30,200 --> 01:03:33,560
Speaker 3: for listening to the Action Network podcast presented by bet MGM.

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01:03:34,000 --> 01:03:36,720
Speaker 3: Enjoy a nice little Monday break from football to keep

1298
01:03:36,760 --> 01:03:39,480
Speaker 3: an eye over all of our NFL wild Card Weekend

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01:03:39,560 --> 01:03:54,160
Speaker 3: podcasts right here on the Action Network.

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01:03:58,160 --> 01:04:02,680
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1301
01:04:02,680 --> 01:04:05,480
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1302
01:04:05,520 --> 01:04:08,720
Speaker 1: available twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler