1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,200
Speaker 1: The favorite podcast is presented by fan Duel sports Book.

2
00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:06,080
Speaker 1: There's no better place to bet the action than on

3
00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,160
Speaker 1: FanDuel Sports Book during the football season. There America's number

4
00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:12,400
Speaker 1: one sports book with an easy to use app that's

5
00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,440
Speaker 1: safe and secure, and when I win, I get paid

6
00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,800
Speaker 1: out in as little as two hours. And this season,

7
00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,800
Speaker 1: fandel Sports Book is making betting easy for everyone with

8
00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:26,640
Speaker 1: great promos like risk free bets, enhanced odds markets, same

9
00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:30,280
Speaker 1: game parlays, and more. So if you're new, just download

10
00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:32,640
Speaker 1: the FanDuel Sports Book app to get started and sign

11
00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:36,200
Speaker 1: up with promo code Favorites so they know I sent

12
00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:38,920
Speaker 1: you. You You must be twenty one or older and president

13
00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:42,519
Speaker 1: in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia

14
00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:46,880
Speaker 1: or West Virginia. Gambling problem called one eight hundred next

15
00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:51,120
Speaker 1: step or text next step to five two in Arizona

16
00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,440
Speaker 1: one eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or

17
00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:59,400
Speaker 1: visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight

18
00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,320
Speaker 1: hundred ambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash r G

19
00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:07,039
Speaker 1: in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Virginia one eight seven zero

20
00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:10,720
Speaker 1: seven seven for confidential help. In Michigan called the Tennessee

21
00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:14,600
Speaker 1: Red Line at one eight eight eight nine nine, or

22
00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:24,800
Speaker 1: visit one eight hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia.

23
00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:30,520
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

24
00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:35,720
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

25
00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:41,360
Speaker 1: It is Thursday before wild Card weekend for the NFL.

26
00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:45,240
Speaker 1: I am joined as always by my bff, my companion,

27
00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:52,320
Speaker 1: my compadre professional better Simon Hunter, my brother. Well Card weekend, bloody.

28
00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:54,000
Speaker 1: It's probably the last time of the year. We have

29
00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:55,960
Speaker 1: just a full slate of games, right you know, we

30
00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:59,840
Speaker 1: got six games. We got two on Saturday, three on Sunday,

31
00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:02,520
Speaker 1: one on Monday. We're going to run through them all

32
00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:05,000
Speaker 1: as we did on Tuesday. We gave our first look.

33
00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:06,680
Speaker 1: You know, we had a couple of bets that we

34
00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:10,239
Speaker 1: definitely wanted to make. We definitely bet on the Paths

35
00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,520
Speaker 1: plus four. We definitely bet on the Niners plus three.

36
00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,320
Speaker 1: As we discussed today, we're going to go through some

37
00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,960
Speaker 1: sharp calls. We're gonna get reaction from your professional betting

38
00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:23,280
Speaker 1: colleagues to what we said on Tuesday. We're gonna lock

39
00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:26,200
Speaker 1: in the games that we feel even better about other

40
00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,280
Speaker 1: than the Pats and and the Niners will probably hit

41
00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:31,400
Speaker 1: some unders because we've got to expend the menu a

42
00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:36,280
Speaker 1: little bit. We'll get to our big balls better the week.

43
00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:40,560
Speaker 1: That's what we got. It's a nice slate for the

44
00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:43,280
Speaker 1: opening weekend. Usually it's some some crap games, and these

45
00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:45,840
Speaker 1: are all pretty damn good games. A lot of talk

46
00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:51,720
Speaker 1: right now in the betting industry about the play of

47
00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:56,040
Speaker 1: short underdogs, especially on the road, and how they've performed

48
00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,799
Speaker 1: the past few years. So I like the trend that

49
00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:03,600
Speaker 1: we've already bet on the Paths and the Niners. We

50
00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:07,800
Speaker 1: did not know about sort of the trends favoring short dogs,

51
00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:10,600
Speaker 1: especially the trans favoring short road dogs when we made

52
00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:13,120
Speaker 1: the bets. We've learned about them since then. But before

53
00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:20,680
Speaker 1: we get to anything else, let's get too sharp calls. Hello,

54
00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:30,360
Speaker 1: who's there. I'm talking. They definitely got a lot of

55
00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:33,360
Speaker 1: calls after our last show, but they expected it's playoffs.

56
00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:35,320
Speaker 1: A lot of difference of opinions, and a lot of

57
00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:38,120
Speaker 1: opinions that are just elevated because people are so passionate.

58
00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:41,160
Speaker 1: This is kind of the money maker time. This is like, yeah,

59
00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:43,400
Speaker 1: people bet a lot during their regular season, but we've

60
00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,680
Speaker 1: seen it where you know, come November December, people they

61
00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:49,120
Speaker 1: still they're not betting as much. When it gets to

62
00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:51,560
Speaker 1: the playoffs, that's really when people really start betting big

63
00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,280
Speaker 1: money again in the NFL. And I think it's more

64
00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:56,440
Speaker 1: that it's emotional tide. Like we've seen all these Super

65
00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:58,840
Speaker 1: Bowl bets coming in. Those aren't pro bets. Like these

66
00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:00,680
Speaker 1: people have been a d twenty five k on the

67
00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:02,960
Speaker 1: Bills to win the Super Bowl. That's some guy that

68
00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:06,400
Speaker 1: owns some meat packing playing up in you know, New York,

69
00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:08,720
Speaker 1: and he's a die hard fan. They just legalized sports

70
00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:11,080
Speaker 1: betting in New York. He bet that on his phone,

71
00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:13,840
Speaker 1: on his couch probably, and they're taking his bet. A

72
00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:17,520
Speaker 1: professional comes in he went to the Bills. They might

73
00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:19,560
Speaker 1: have to think about it. They just wouldn't do that

74
00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:21,000
Speaker 1: because I don't know if the value would be there

75
00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:23,280
Speaker 1: to do it. But it's my favorite time here because,

76
00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:25,480
Speaker 1: like we just said, it's so much difference of opinions.

77
00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:31,080
Speaker 1: The guy betting that grand is fucking Matt Mitchell's uncle

78
00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:33,479
Speaker 1: and bring him to in for all you Now, I

79
00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:37,640
Speaker 1: wish I came for money like that. Yeah seriously. Yeah,

80
00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:40,160
Speaker 1: Well it's interesting, like the entire episode is a sharp

81
00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:43,400
Speaker 1: call because there's so few games. My sentence is the

82
00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:46,400
Speaker 1: feedback you got is from your buddies calling about all

83
00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:49,080
Speaker 1: of them. So let's do this. You pick the one

84
00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:52,080
Speaker 1: game that got the most feedback, because I have a

85
00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:53,520
Speaker 1: feeling I know what it's going to be. You and

86
00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:55,600
Speaker 1: I haven't discussed, but I am curious if it's the

87
00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:57,960
Speaker 1: game I'm thinking about, what is the one game you

88
00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,599
Speaker 1: got the most feedback on that people disagree with you.

89
00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:05,599
Speaker 1: The biggest argument I've gotten in with other paros was

90
00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:08,520
Speaker 1: that Rams Cardinals game. Almost every group I've talked to

91
00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:10,440
Speaker 1: was on the Cardinals. I'll tell you right now, it's

92
00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:13,200
Speaker 1: it's gonna be us with the public. We're taking the Rams.

93
00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:15,679
Speaker 1: That seems like that's the public play. And the pros

94
00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,919
Speaker 1: they love this Cardinals number. Even the Hopkins was out again.

95
00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:21,440
Speaker 1: You have to shop around. Some books have it up

96
00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:22,800
Speaker 1: to four and a half. I've seen a drop in

97
00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,120
Speaker 1: other books to three and a half. Talking to the professional,

98
00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:26,880
Speaker 1: I think they're looking at it from the other standpoint

99
00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:30,160
Speaker 1: of Okay, Stafford has not played well. You can go

100
00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:32,360
Speaker 1: through the numbers. He has simply not played well. If

101
00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,400
Speaker 1: you put his numbers up this year compared to golf

102
00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,480
Speaker 1: from last year. Golf statistically had a better year, and

103
00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,680
Speaker 1: like if you again, everyone has different QB grades. I

104
00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:45,200
Speaker 1: greated out Golf almost just the same as I did Stafford. Again.

105
00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:47,320
Speaker 1: A lot goes into that the running was better last

106
00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:49,680
Speaker 1: year for this team, but you can't use that excuse.

107
00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,719
Speaker 1: Stafford had Sonny Michelle the last month who's been arguably

108
00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:54,720
Speaker 1: one of the best running backs in football, and he's

109
00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:57,360
Speaker 1: been turning over almost one point three times per game.

110
00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,920
Speaker 1: That's terrible for December heading into playoffs. You saw last

111
00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:03,240
Speaker 1: week he turned it over in a pivotal point that

112
00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:06,240
Speaker 1: really flipped that game. So the big argument from these

113
00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:08,559
Speaker 1: guys is who the hell is Stafford to be catching

114
00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,479
Speaker 1: this many points? This guy has time and time again

115
00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,200
Speaker 1: choked in these kind of spots. I'm getting a dog.

116
00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:16,080
Speaker 1: You can get plus four. It's own books some four

117
00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:18,279
Speaker 1: and a half. That's a big number for Stafford to

118
00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:20,440
Speaker 1: be favor by. My push back to them was, you

119
00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,440
Speaker 1: don't think the bookmakers know that they're gonna get money

120
00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:25,159
Speaker 1: on the Cardinals. They were gonna get a lot of it.

121
00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:27,359
Speaker 1: And I just looked at the action app It's not

122
00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:31,080
Speaker 1: that split, like it's pretty close the money and the bets,

123
00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:33,520
Speaker 1: so I don't know. I pushed back on where, Yeah,

124
00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:36,240
Speaker 1: if it was on the rams and seventy five percent

125
00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:38,799
Speaker 1: of the money on their rams, I would say, Okay,

126
00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,320
Speaker 1: these guys have a point. Maybe I'm overrating this ram seemed.

127
00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:42,720
Speaker 1: The fact that the money is so close and the

128
00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:45,160
Speaker 1: bets are so close, and we're seeing the fluctuation in

129
00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:47,880
Speaker 1: the different books, it just shows me that you should

130
00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:50,719
Speaker 1: just shop around, because like this pro group that likes

131
00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,200
Speaker 1: the Cardinals, they've already come in on certain books and

132
00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:54,919
Speaker 1: you can see that number down to three and a half.

133
00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:56,800
Speaker 1: Other books are still sitting at four and a half.

134
00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,000
Speaker 1: That means they haven't either been accepted at those books

135
00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,240
Speaker 1: or they haven't bet them. Oh That's what I'm trying

136
00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,159
Speaker 1: to explain to people. It's like, if you let the Cardinals,

137
00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:05,000
Speaker 1: don't take the three and a half, take the four

138
00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:06,680
Speaker 1: and a half of these other books, because you're you're

139
00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:09,960
Speaker 1: literally those are key numbers. You're crossing four four and

140
00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:13,160
Speaker 1: a half. Those are key numbers in football especially. I

141
00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:16,120
Speaker 1: feel like the only thing keeping people from going all

142
00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:20,840
Speaker 1: in on the Cardinals is Cliff Kingsbury. I think Matt

143
00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:23,320
Speaker 1: Mitchell and I say this kind of tug and cheek,

144
00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:28,280
Speaker 1: but everybody who follows football and bets on football pays

145
00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,320
Speaker 1: attention to the fact that Cliff Kingsbury, in the latter

146
00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:34,680
Speaker 1: half of any season he's ever coached in falls apart.

147
00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:38,360
Speaker 1: His team just don't play well statistically. There's nothing to

148
00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:41,760
Speaker 1: dispute that. And the only game in which they've really

149
00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:44,480
Speaker 1: played well in the second half of this season, after

150
00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:48,080
Speaker 1: they were running away with their division in the first

151
00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,560
Speaker 1: half of the year, was against the Cowboys, and the

152
00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:53,640
Speaker 1: Cowboys haven't been looking as good. Other than that, every

153
00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:58,160
Speaker 1: metric you look at favors the Cardinals. Stafford has been

154
00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:03,200
Speaker 1: fading aggressively in the second half of the year. Arizona's

155
00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:08,320
Speaker 1: defense has been playing better than Los Angeles defense in

156
00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:12,760
Speaker 1: the two games they played this year. Arizona outgained Los

157
00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,360
Speaker 1: Angeles in the first game by about sixty in the

158
00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:18,320
Speaker 1: second game more than a hundred. Like this is a

159
00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:22,200
Speaker 1: good spot for the Cardinals. Not to mention some of

160
00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:25,640
Speaker 1: the wild card dog trends that I mentioned wild card

161
00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:27,440
Speaker 1: dogs by a touchdown or less. I got this from

162
00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:31,280
Speaker 1: Chris Raybond listening to the Action Network podcast. By wild

163
00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:33,360
Speaker 1: Card dogs by a touchdown or less than two thousand

164
00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:38,000
Speaker 1: three one. And also, by the way, the Rams just

165
00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:44,240
Speaker 1: signed Eric Weddle in the secondary for them. And again,

166
00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:46,040
Speaker 1: I'm not a trend, not a huge trend better, but

167
00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,920
Speaker 1: I do like trends Arizona eight and one on the

168
00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:51,920
Speaker 1: road against the spread and straight up this season. I mean,

169
00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:55,360
Speaker 1: another thing that points to the Cardinals. I get and

170
00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:59,160
Speaker 1: like why people are betting the Cardinals. If you if

171
00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:01,839
Speaker 1: you have any hesitate, and it's because of Cliff Kingsbury,

172
00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:05,080
Speaker 1: and yet you still like the Rams. I gotta say,

173
00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:08,200
Speaker 1: I think I like the Cardinals. Yeah, and again that's fair,

174
00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:10,760
Speaker 1: but like I'm already on two other short dogs. All

175
00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:12,679
Speaker 1: three of these short dogs ain't winning. I can tell

176
00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:17,280
Speaker 1: you that much. I mean that trends not. It's the

177
00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:21,600
Speaker 1: flaw with what you're saying, though you're you're assuming there

178
00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:24,040
Speaker 1: is a correlation from one dog to the next dog

179
00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:26,480
Speaker 1: to the next dog. It's like the other day, you know,

180
00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:29,560
Speaker 1: we were were we having a conversation or no, I

181
00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:35,200
Speaker 1: was having a conversation with somebody else about playing Roulette, right,

182
00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:38,040
Speaker 1: and how people like if it bets, if it goes

183
00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:40,160
Speaker 1: red red red, the next thing they bet is black.

184
00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:43,160
Speaker 1: As if what has happened previously has an impact on

185
00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:46,880
Speaker 1: what happens next. There's no correlation. It could mean that

186
00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:48,840
Speaker 1: the wheel is broken and you should just keep betting

187
00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,720
Speaker 1: on red. But in this case, there's no correlation between

188
00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:55,600
Speaker 1: what is happening in those those two short dogs that

189
00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:58,000
Speaker 1: we already like in this game. And who's to say

190
00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:01,160
Speaker 1: like that we're not that this isn't the better bet.

191
00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,280
Speaker 1: I think it's the Cardinals and you're hard trying wrong.

192
00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:06,400
Speaker 1: Everything is connected yet you'll figure out as you get

193
00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:08,800
Speaker 1: older with age, but everything in this world is connected

194
00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,680
Speaker 1: one way or another. And yeah, that's a fair argument.

195
00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:14,040
Speaker 1: Like I told you other pros around the Cardinals, all

196
00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:17,160
Speaker 1: the trends, everything points to the Cardinals. Why isn't this

197
00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:20,520
Speaker 1: number three? Like you don't think sports books have these numbers?

198
00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:22,599
Speaker 1: Like you don't think that. That was my argument to

199
00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:24,520
Speaker 1: all these other guys who are just like you're getting

200
00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:27,640
Speaker 1: free points, free money against Stafford here, And I said

201
00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:29,760
Speaker 1: to them, that's a good that's a fair argument. Same thing.

202
00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:32,280
Speaker 1: We'll talk about this Bangals and Raiders game, since he

203
00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:35,679
Speaker 1: hasn't won a playoff game, Since we're getting a dog

204
00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:38,800
Speaker 1: that's less two fifty or plus two twenty five and

205
00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:41,319
Speaker 1: the Raiders. That's why pros are betting the Raiders here.

206
00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,640
Speaker 1: It's like they're they're completely thrown out all the info

207
00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:47,800
Speaker 1: like we gave out about a short week, the better offense,

208
00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,320
Speaker 1: better defenses to all these things. So yeah, well it's

209
00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:51,880
Speaker 1: that's why it's funny that you said that about like

210
00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:55,120
Speaker 1: these things aren't connected. You're You're right, they're not. It's

211
00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,839
Speaker 1: just like you just said, to stab yourself. The odds

212
00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:01,000
Speaker 1: of that all three of these dogs winning or covering

213
00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:03,400
Speaker 1: out right, I mean, it's gotta be less than a

214
00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:06,640
Speaker 1: fifty percent chance. That's just that's an anomaly, is kind

215
00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:08,240
Speaker 1: of what you just said. After you said that's that

216
00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,800
Speaker 1: I feel like, even though you are a Fox generation

217
00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:15,680
Speaker 1: younger than me, there is a hundred percent truth to

218
00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:19,000
Speaker 1: the idea that you are wise beyond your years and

219
00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:23,160
Speaker 1: I am naive beyond my years. That's the joke there,

220
00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:25,560
Speaker 1: chat is if you take a look at our podcast logo,

221
00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:27,160
Speaker 1: you would be the third year old. I would be

222
00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:28,560
Speaker 1: the fifth year old. And that's what I love about

223
00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:31,240
Speaker 1: this relationship. You've lived a harder life than I have.

224
00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:35,680
Speaker 1: I definitely have done more groundwork. We're digging. I don't know.

225
00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:37,800
Speaker 1: If I've lived the harder life, I've definitely done more.

226
00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:43,559
Speaker 1: Your hands callousis in the in like my hands. I

227
00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,760
Speaker 1: don't have callousis. That's the bottom line. No. I did

228
00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,200
Speaker 1: landscaping for like four years to make money every summer.

229
00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:53,120
Speaker 1: That was my life. You know, the moments we don't

230
00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,280
Speaker 1: We don't dig in the durs. If you ever get

231
00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:58,080
Speaker 1: a chance to see Chad's hands in real life, it's

232
00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:01,800
Speaker 1: really quite a treat. They are a really perfect set

233
00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:06,320
Speaker 1: of man's hands, like a hand modeled situation, unblemished and

234
00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:10,080
Speaker 1: untarnished by any hard labor. But they're really something to

235
00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:15,000
Speaker 1: look at. So congratulations. Um, all right, well let's talk

236
00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:16,760
Speaker 1: about the Raiders and the Bengals, because I do think

237
00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:19,680
Speaker 1: that's another one. You and I both immediately out of

238
00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:23,000
Speaker 1: the gate loved the Bengals as five and a half

239
00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:26,040
Speaker 1: point favorites. It's down to five. I have not bet

240
00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,480
Speaker 1: it because I'm waiting for the number to continue to drop.

241
00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:32,840
Speaker 1: As we discussed, here's the split the bets, meaning the

242
00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:37,680
Speaker 1: public on the Bengals. Nearly of the money on the Raiders.

243
00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:42,120
Speaker 1: Everybody loves the Raiders here, I mean except us, and

244
00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,960
Speaker 1: in this regard, I'm with you. I wish you'd grab

245
00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:46,360
Speaker 1: the four and a half though, because it did drop

246
00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:48,840
Speaker 1: the four and a half. I didn't see that chat,

247
00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:51,840
Speaker 1: open up that action app, turn on your alerts when

248
00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:53,160
Speaker 1: when it moves the four and a half at your

249
00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:56,160
Speaker 1: fandel or whatever book are gonna use, you'll get it. Man.

250
00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:58,720
Speaker 1: But well it's still gonna it's gonna go down again.

251
00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:01,520
Speaker 1: I mean so much things. So I think the pros

252
00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:03,200
Speaker 1: came and they ate that number up. So like the

253
00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:05,520
Speaker 1: books are just gonna be like, you know what, we

254
00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:06,960
Speaker 1: can't go to four and a half because that's when

255
00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:08,720
Speaker 1: the professional money is. We'll just sit out five because

256
00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:10,600
Speaker 1: I've seen some books back up to five and a half.

257
00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:13,400
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's fair. It could drop back down. We

258
00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:15,680
Speaker 1: make the joke all the time that public dogs die,

259
00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:19,560
Speaker 1: and it's true. They they just die, and the books

260
00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:21,960
Speaker 1: know what they're doing. Whenever you see a big public

261
00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:24,960
Speaker 1: dog like that, it's it's scary. Where that's a lot

262
00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,800
Speaker 1: of money to be betting on the raiders and yeah,

263
00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:29,439
Speaker 1: we can say that's professional money, but we know a

264
00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:31,720
Speaker 1: lot of it's public. A lot of it is the

265
00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:34,440
Speaker 1: city of Las Vegas. I mean, if you live in Vegas.

266
00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:36,520
Speaker 1: You're gonna be betting money on this game. It's no

267
00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:39,400
Speaker 1: surprise they're back on their team. So I would keep

268
00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,600
Speaker 1: my eye on the Vegas sports books, so their lines

269
00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:44,240
Speaker 1: are gonna be different, obviously than my lines here in

270
00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:47,240
Speaker 1: New Jersey. If you see a Vegas sports book dip

271
00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:50,559
Speaker 1: down to three, three and a half, someone knows something

272
00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,439
Speaker 1: that that's really really big deal if they touched down

273
00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:55,360
Speaker 1: to those, because those are all key numbers. These books

274
00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:57,599
Speaker 1: are crossing the fact that we just talked about it

275
00:13:57,679 --> 00:13:59,440
Speaker 1: went back up to five. I've seen some five and

276
00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:02,280
Speaker 1: a halfs. It gives me no pause. I'm still on

277
00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:04,400
Speaker 1: the SINC team. I still think you're getting a good number.

278
00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:07,160
Speaker 1: I still think the rest the rest is gonna be

279
00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,400
Speaker 1: a big deal and not enough will be made about it.

280
00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:12,079
Speaker 1: But if you like the Raiders, in my opinion, you

281
00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:15,520
Speaker 1: take them first half, that's when it doesn't matter. Come

282
00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:18,080
Speaker 1: second half. That's when, since you will have those fresh

283
00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:20,680
Speaker 1: legs from having all that rest, the Raiders will start

284
00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:22,960
Speaker 1: feeling that jet legs are feeling that travels start feeling

285
00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:24,880
Speaker 1: that shorter week. If you're trying to play the smart

286
00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:26,840
Speaker 1: angles of this, yeah, I let's sprink a little on

287
00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,600
Speaker 1: the Raiders first half money line maybe, but I know

288
00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:32,240
Speaker 1: for sure second half, whatever the line will be, I

289
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,560
Speaker 1: will be on the Bengals. I am I am bigg

290
00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:36,840
Speaker 1: in to believe that. Uh, come this point the season,

291
00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,240
Speaker 1: rest is a very big deal. Teams might come out

292
00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:41,600
Speaker 1: a little sloppy, you know, you rest your starters, could

293
00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:43,520
Speaker 1: throw the rhythm off a little bit because they missed

294
00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,640
Speaker 1: that week of play. But usually by the second half,

295
00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:48,440
Speaker 1: these teams get it right and figure it out. So

296
00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:51,280
Speaker 1: I haven't changed either. I'm still on this number with

297
00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:53,480
Speaker 1: the since still thing since he has a better team,

298
00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:59,160
Speaker 1: better quarterback, better defense outdoors in the elements, people could

299
00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:01,280
Speaker 1: take this under if they choose, Like I'm on this under,

300
00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:03,440
Speaker 1: it's moved a little bit towards the under. But again

301
00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,280
Speaker 1: we're talking about the next game. That's really my favorite

302
00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:07,920
Speaker 1: under bed for Saturday, not this one. I'll tell you

303
00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:11,200
Speaker 1: right now. Our friends at Fandel currently have this game

304
00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:16,760
Speaker 1: at Bengals minus four and a half minus one four team.

305
00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:18,600
Speaker 1: I'd pay a little bit extra juice to get the

306
00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:20,560
Speaker 1: four and a half because, like, at the end of

307
00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:22,760
Speaker 1: the day, it's just not a massive amount. So that's

308
00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:25,120
Speaker 1: what I'm gonna do. I would say anything under one twenty.

309
00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:27,440
Speaker 1: I don't mind anything under minus one twenty. I feel

310
00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,080
Speaker 1: like that's the juice. Isn't that bad to be paying?

311
00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:32,680
Speaker 1: But yeah, again, I've already had a buddy reach out

312
00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:34,720
Speaker 1: reach out to me from New York. They like we

313
00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:37,080
Speaker 1: talked about, they've got they're seeing minus one thirty lines

314
00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:39,480
Speaker 1: and different things like that. So don't just pick the

315
00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:41,000
Speaker 1: number when you see it, trying to shop around and

316
00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:43,960
Speaker 1: get the best number. All right, So you said that

317
00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:47,720
Speaker 1: the next game is your favorite game for an under.

318
00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:51,960
Speaker 1: We're talking about the Patriots and the Bills. The under

319
00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:56,720
Speaker 1: in that game forty four and a half the side.

320
00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:59,080
Speaker 1: Some places the sides up to four and a half,

321
00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:02,120
Speaker 1: which is surprised into me because the money is coming

322
00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:04,080
Speaker 1: in and the Patriots and the bets are coming in

323
00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:07,040
Speaker 1: and the Bills in the total at forty four and

324
00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:09,680
Speaker 1: a half, the money on the under, the bets on

325
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,880
Speaker 1: the over. Why is the lot before we get to

326
00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:14,720
Speaker 1: the total? Why is the line going up? If all

327
00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:16,520
Speaker 1: the money is coming in and the Patriots and we

328
00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,360
Speaker 1: all know we like the Patriots. I didn't get the

329
00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:20,240
Speaker 1: best of the number. Now that's annoying me because you

330
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,560
Speaker 1: talk all the time. It's if Mattress Mac comes in

331
00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:26,920
Speaker 1: and bets two million dollars on a Alabama to win

332
00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:29,720
Speaker 1: the national title, that doesn't move the number at all.

333
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,240
Speaker 1: A professional group comes in, that's just twenty k on

334
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,320
Speaker 1: Alabama to win the national title. They're gonna move that

335
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:38,600
Speaker 1: game half a point. That's the difference. It's like certain

336
00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:40,800
Speaker 1: groups move these lines. It's not just because all this

337
00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:42,120
Speaker 1: money is coming and a lot of that money could

338
00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:45,520
Speaker 1: just be public money. Like we talked about. It's it's

339
00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:48,960
Speaker 1: hard to read through that those different scenarios. But man,

340
00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:52,760
Speaker 1: looking at this game, maybe the thing they're thinking of

341
00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:55,880
Speaker 1: is the last time these two teams played in Buffalo,

342
00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,200
Speaker 1: Mac threw it three times. That was the only time

343
00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,240
Speaker 1: macau Is ever played below freezing tempera right, He's a

344
00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:04,200
Speaker 1: Southern boy, played in Bama. He just hasn't played in

345
00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:07,520
Speaker 1: these kind of elements. That's a fairy. But to me,

346
00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:09,800
Speaker 1: I still love it. I love the four and a half.

347
00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:11,679
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna let it scare me off that some

348
00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:13,720
Speaker 1: other pro groups are coming on the bills. I love

349
00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:19,479
Speaker 1: the number we're getting, so um yeah, it's it's not ideal, right,

350
00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:21,159
Speaker 1: chat it. We never we never like to see the

351
00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,760
Speaker 1: number of moving against us. But that's how it's gonna be.

352
00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:25,840
Speaker 1: In the playoffs, it's just gonna be a lot of movement,

353
00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:29,120
Speaker 1: a lot of opinions of different betting groups. Again, during

354
00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:31,600
Speaker 1: the regular season, you'll see betting like the pros on

355
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,280
Speaker 1: the same side a lot. In the playoffs, it does

356
00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,440
Speaker 1: not matter. Pro groups go against each other constantly just

357
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:40,120
Speaker 1: because different systems, different reads. Again, I'm not a trend

358
00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:41,439
Speaker 1: better a lot of pros. I know it is our

359
00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:43,440
Speaker 1: trend betters. They'll just don't even care about the number.

360
00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:46,520
Speaker 1: They're just gonna simply bet off trends. And you know,

361
00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,320
Speaker 1: I can't fault them for this one. Taking the Bills.

362
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:54,320
Speaker 1: They have the experienced quarterback, the better defense, you could argue,

363
00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:57,560
Speaker 1: the better offense. But this is such a Belichick game,

364
00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:01,640
Speaker 1: right we Bill, that's the Bills specialties. You give him

365
00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:03,480
Speaker 1: time to focus on a team, let alon a team

366
00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,040
Speaker 1: he's played twice this year, and the Bills. He's gonna

367
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,360
Speaker 1: know what to do against them. And the whole key

368
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,360
Speaker 1: to this game is the lead for the Patriots. That's

369
00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,479
Speaker 1: what in the first half of the Patriots are up

370
00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,959
Speaker 1: thirteen to seven, thirteen to ten. You can put your

371
00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:17,600
Speaker 1: life savings on. You're gonna cover this four and a

372
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,240
Speaker 1: half number, because that's the Patriots dictating this game. In

373
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,000
Speaker 1: the second half, the Patriots are down thirteen to seven,

374
00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:26,240
Speaker 1: we might be fun chat because that's gonna be Mac

375
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 1: throwing the ball. That's what we don't want. We don't

376
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:30,040
Speaker 1: want a rookie who doesn't play in the who's never

377
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:31,840
Speaker 1: really playing the cold throwing the ball a lot. So

378
00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:34,399
Speaker 1: that's that's what the screpcy is here is it's like

379
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,760
Speaker 1: this game could flip on a dime if it's not

380
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,359
Speaker 1: working out for us. For the Patriots, we need the

381
00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,160
Speaker 1: Patriots Patriots semed to be either running on first hand

382
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:43,400
Speaker 1: or second down and just ball controlling this game, keeping

383
00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:45,760
Speaker 1: Josh Allen off the field. That's how they won that

384
00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:48,480
Speaker 1: seventeen to fourteen kind of game. Again, we talked about

385
00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:50,560
Speaker 1: the time they got lucky in that game, but at

386
00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:54,120
Speaker 1: that game lands. Now we're up to four and a half,

387
00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,680
Speaker 1: we're still covering that number. So I like that it's

388
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:58,040
Speaker 1: moving up to four and a half. That's again a

389
00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,440
Speaker 1: key number and we didn't really touch on, but yeah,

390
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,520
Speaker 1: the under, that to me is that's the move. The

391
00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:06,400
Speaker 1: under is a good play for me in this game,

392
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,360
Speaker 1: just because the Patriots are really dominant in the red

393
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:12,119
Speaker 1: zone and not letting teams score. That's also what the

394
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:14,239
Speaker 1: Bills are great at. The Bills are really good at

395
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:16,520
Speaker 1: not letting teams score in the red zone. They just

396
00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:17,960
Speaker 1: they do the same thing Patriots. So they'll let you

397
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,040
Speaker 1: go up and down the field. They don't care once

398
00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,159
Speaker 1: you get to the red zone. They don't let teams score.

399
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 1: So forty four I saw down to forty two and

400
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:26,440
Speaker 1: a half when people thought there was gonna be snow.

401
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,879
Speaker 1: Now the pros have better back up totty four and

402
00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,239
Speaker 1: a half. That's good value for me. So to me,

403
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 1: that's my favorite under the under the day because I

404
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,320
Speaker 1: made this number forty three forty four and a half.

405
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:41,560
Speaker 1: That's a key number. Some trends to discuss because you

406
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:44,720
Speaker 1: mentioned trend players and people betting on the Bills. In

407
00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:47,399
Speaker 1: this case, the trends are in our favor because I

408
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:50,439
Speaker 1: talked about this. With the Cardinals NFL dogs in the

409
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:54,080
Speaker 1: playoffs since two seventeen, they are twenty nine and seventeen

410
00:19:54,960 --> 00:20:00,280
Speaker 1: against the spread underdogs in the wild card, fifteen and

411
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 1: three and eight straight up road dogs in wild card

412
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 1: weekend fourteen and two, and dogs overall in the plaffs

413
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 1: it's two thousand three. So all of this is leaning

414
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 1: towards playing the dogs, which is why it's scary that

415
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:19,280
Speaker 1: we're playing the Bengals. But I do like that we're

416
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,879
Speaker 1: playing the Patriots. So another trend I really liked I

417
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,600
Speaker 1: saw chat was when it's under ten degrees. The last

418
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:28,399
Speaker 1: six games underdogs are four one on one against the spread,

419
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:32,480
Speaker 1: So when it's under ten degrees, tends the favorite underdog team.

420
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:36,160
Speaker 1: The last time, last game that was this exact situation

421
00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,360
Speaker 1: was the Seahawks first of Vikings. You remember that game

422
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 1: where the Vikings down the field and missed the field goal. Yes,

423
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:48,160
Speaker 1: that was a brutal beat, brutal beat, brutal I think

424
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,440
Speaker 1: what was the score, like LeMond and nine. It was

425
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 1: something weird. It was wicked. Oh my god, it was

426
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,600
Speaker 1: so wicked. It was one of those like the Vikings

427
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 1: are just cursed. Yes, I'm not the biggest trend better

428
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 1: by you, Like, like Chad says, when you hear trends,

429
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:04,160
Speaker 1: favorite the side you're on just makes you feel better.

430
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 1: So that one obviously favorites towards the dog taking that

431
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 1: dog in the cold weather. Alright, so you like the

432
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:12,640
Speaker 1: under forty four and a half, we still lean towards

433
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 1: the Patriots and plus four even though the number in

434
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:16,720
Speaker 1: a lot of places have moved to four and a half.

435
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 1: This is a really a really tricky one. And today

436
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,399
Speaker 1: you're wearing your Eagles hoodie represent the last time for

437
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:27,399
Speaker 1: the year. Eagles are eight and a half point dogs.

438
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 1: The total is forty five and a half forty six.

439
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 1: Both are live, like, both are really interesting angles. To me.

440
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,639
Speaker 1: This is the hardest game to handicap other than the

441
00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:44,679
Speaker 1: Chief Steelers because it's a big number. It's hard to

442
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,400
Speaker 1: want to play a favorite in this spot. And yet

443
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 1: I think I lean Bucks. Wow. Well, first I'll just

444
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 1: touch on real quick with that. That total. I believe

445
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 1: it was forty nine and now it's alway down to

446
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 1: forty five and a half because people have read that

447
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a thunderstorm er, there's gonna be bad weather, like, yeah,

448
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 1: a lot, a lot of wind. So that's why people

449
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 1: are wondering, why is this total just steaming down so hard?

450
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 1: That's why it's a simple fact that this this weather

451
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 1: is no good. That's so crazy that you like the

452
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,399
Speaker 1: Bucks just even after you know that weather report, like

453
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:22,480
Speaker 1: which team is the dominant run team in this Such

454
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,439
Speaker 1: an idiot, what are you doing? I don't stick to

455
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:28,199
Speaker 1: my guns at all. I fucking suck. I hate myself

456
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 1: and open up the action app. You can see all

457
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:31,959
Speaker 1: the money, all the tickets are coming in on the bucks.

458
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 1: That number has just been sitting eight and a half

459
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,679
Speaker 1: these last couple of days because they came in on

460
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,479
Speaker 1: the Eagles at ten. I just so they know they

461
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 1: can't bump it up. They know they're stuck. The fact

462
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 1: that they haven't moved it though. Like we talked at

463
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 1: the time, six point teasers. That's what the public likes

464
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 1: to do. The public bets like cowards. They don't. They

465
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 1: don't just bet straight. They like to bet these teasers.

466
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 1: That's a key number, teasing it down from eight and

467
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 1: a half to two and a half. Again, we talk

468
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 1: all the time. Three is a key number. The books

469
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 1: know what they're doing, they know they're they're letting people

470
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:05,159
Speaker 1: bet that. So I'm shocked to hear you be so

471
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 1: Joe public on that one. I'm I'm I'm on the

472
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 1: Eagles and I'm actually on the over in this one.

473
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,159
Speaker 1: I I don't let the win. I'm not letting that

474
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 1: weather scare me off. To me, both these teams have

475
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,639
Speaker 1: distinct advantages on all offense. The Eagles know exactly what

476
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,120
Speaker 1: they are and what they want to do. Not enough

477
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:22,360
Speaker 1: people are gonna talk about it, the matchup of Goddard

478
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,879
Speaker 1: versus the blind backers of this Bucks team. To me,

479
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 1: that's the difference of this entire game. Again, the Egos

480
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:29,639
Speaker 1: are gonna try to run it everything like that. But

481
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 1: the way you beat this Buccaneers team is you have

482
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 1: to throw it to your your tight end. You have

483
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:35,960
Speaker 1: to make it so they're not blitz and they have

484
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 1: to respect that middle of the field. And the Eagles

485
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 1: I've seen it time and time again since we got

486
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 1: rid of Earth's Goddard has been I guess Davante Smiths

487
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:45,880
Speaker 1: our best receiver, but got her right there with him.

488
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 1: This this guy. Every time we need a third down,

489
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 1: Goddard's been there for this Egos team. So I love it.

490
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 1: At eight and a half, I still I love it

491
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 1: even more. The fact, like we just talked about all

492
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,440
Speaker 1: the money, all the bets, I went to a sugar

493
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 1: house a couple of days ago asking the woman there

494
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 1: how many Eagles to get to you getting She said, no,

495
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 1: one's really been the spread, but people are betting the

496
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 1: money line, which is very Philadelphia bus like. Again, this

497
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,400
Speaker 1: is a Philadelphia sports book, and she's pretty much said

498
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 1: everyone's been the Buccaneers mind and say in a half.

499
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 1: So I love it that they're not moving these lines

500
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 1: because that's that's again, that's a telltale sign if they

501
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:18,720
Speaker 1: had to, if they need the money, the books will

502
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 1: move the armor up. The fact they haven't, like Chad

503
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,359
Speaker 1: just said, it's them kind of showing their hands saying

504
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,120
Speaker 1: the pros are gonna hit us if we move it again.

505
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:26,719
Speaker 1: So we just have to let it sit here and

506
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 1: just hope the Eagles can cover eight and a half.

507
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 1: I've passed that book on my way out of town

508
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 1: when I've driven my kid in Drexel and I've left town.

509
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 1: I've passed that on the on the Expressway leaving Philly. Yeah,

510
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 1: it's really tricky, really tricky to bet against Tom Brady

511
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 1: in wind when he doesn't get fazed by the elements,

512
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 1: or bet on a Eagles team that's really going to

513
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,120
Speaker 1: rely on the run and while the Bucks you're saying

514
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 1: the rush defense. You said this on Tuesday is not

515
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 1: as good as everyone thinks. It's still the strength of

516
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 1: their defense. They're injured in a lot of places. I

517
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 1: really am shocked to hear that you're on the bus.

518
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 1: I'm letting a public buy is getting the way. Part

519
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 1: of me is just thinking I didn't get the ten

520
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 1: and like it eight and a half the way. It's

521
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 1: just sitting there makes me nervous. No, it's fair, that's fair.

522
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,440
Speaker 1: That's again. I think that's really I just can't see

523
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 1: a getting back up there. Like we talked about that,

524
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:18,640
Speaker 1: I don't think the professionals will let it get that high.

525
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:20,479
Speaker 1: The truth is I might just pass. I might not

526
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: play the I might not play a side. That's fair. Again,

527
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 1: I'm betting all these games. I'm betting all these sides

528
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 1: and totals. But like we just talked about that, that

529
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 1: Bengals game, the Patriots game, this Eagles game, this forty

530
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 1: Niners game coming up, these are probably my biggest ones

531
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 1: I've been on. Like, I'm not going huge on the Rams,

532
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 1: I'm not going huge on the Chiefs, but these other

533
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 1: ones that I'm I'm putting a decent amount of money on. Well,

534
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 1: let's talk about the forty Niners visiting the Cowboys. There's

535
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 1: three point underdogs, seventy seven percent of the money on

536
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 1: the Niners. The total is fifty one, the majority of

537
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: the money and the tickets coming in on the over.

538
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 1: We love the winners. Um. That was our Simon says,

539
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:04,879
Speaker 1: bet get it if you could at three and a

540
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 1: half on Tuesday, but it's generally been sitting in three,

541
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 1: so you probably didn't get it at three and a half.

542
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 1: Nothing's changed for me, all those stats, all the trends,

543
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 1: everything backs up what we said about the Niners the

544
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 1: other day, which is, you know, against the they've got

545
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,919
Speaker 1: the coaching advantage, they've got the line of scrimmage advantage,

546
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:26,159
Speaker 1: they've got the defensive advantage when it comes to stopping

547
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 1: the run. All things to me, point Niners plus three

548
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:32,159
Speaker 1: terrifying though, Like you just read the stats, but all

549
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 1: the money, all the bets coming on in them. I

550
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:36,879
Speaker 1: really thought the public could be back in Dallas. The

551
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 1: Historically Dallas is a public team. Did they not have

552
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:45,399
Speaker 1: the best eight s record this season? They didn't, buck,

553
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:48,639
Speaker 1: so maybe we're walking into it. I'm not reading this

554
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,440
Speaker 1: game right because the books. Again, I told you I

555
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 1: made this game minus one Dallas. If the if the

556
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 1: books believed all this money coming in, they would have

557
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 1: dropped it down to that number, like they would be

558
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 1: taken in Dallas money. Maybe they're waiting and they're to

559
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 1: see themselves. The public will come in on Dallas eventually.

560
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 1: We don't need to move it yet. Um, and this

561
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 1: is just early professional money. But we knew, I mean

562
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 1: not that I knew for a fact every pro would

563
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 1: be on this forty Niners team. But then I got

564
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,159
Speaker 1: calls from all my buddies, got guys reached out to

565
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,880
Speaker 1: me make bets. They're all in the four nights. They're

566
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 1: looking the same thing as me. Cowboys haven't played a

567
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 1: good run team since I don't know, early November. They

568
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 1: are one of the worst run teams. They just having

569
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 1: face teams that can run the ball, so they've kind

570
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 1: of gone away with it. People don't really on that.

571
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:33,879
Speaker 1: Maybe they are. Maybe maybe people are looking at the

572
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 1: same exact numbers I'm looking at, where it's like this

573
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 1: is an overinflated line. Dallas should not be minus three.

574
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 1: The forty nine is to me, they're just one of

575
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: my favorite futures at twenty one. I like the value

576
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 1: of getting on this forty Niners team to make it

577
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,880
Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl. So I'm right there with you, Chad.

578
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,959
Speaker 1: Nothing changing. I'm still on the Fetnan team. Thought a

579
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 1: great field for this total. I I leaned towards the

580
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 1: over um just because both these offenses can't put up

581
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,159
Speaker 1: so many points. But the Fournits defense they've been playing better.

582
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 1: I mean, Demika Ryan's or d C. He's been good,

583
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,160
Speaker 1: like he's improved as a season is going along here.

584
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 1: So I do like the over I'm just not putting

585
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,439
Speaker 1: that much on it. It's very possible that, well, we

586
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 1: love the Bengals because we think the Raiders might be

587
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 1: too much of a public dog. We could be walking

588
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 1: into the public dog trap with the Niners. And like,

589
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 1: I didn't know the numbers like that until you read

590
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 1: it off And that's that's scary again. You know what

591
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 1: courage of our convictions. We like the Niners. We're going

592
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 1: with the fucking Niners here. No, I mean I've already

593
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:35,400
Speaker 1: betted so much that there's no turning back, Like I'm

594
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna keep betting it as long as it's

595
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 1: the three. But at this point in the season, you

596
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 1: just gotta trust your gun kind of roll with it.

597
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 1: Trust your numbers, don't trust your fucking gut. Have fidelity

598
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 1: to the math. You don't. Numbers only can take you

599
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 1: so far in the playoffs. So it's gonna mainly trust

600
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 1: your gut. That's why you and your Bucks pick. I

601
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 1: want to talk a ton of shit about it, but

602
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 1: I want you to trust your gut. If you think

603
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 1: the Bucks are the answer, to take the Bucks, maybe

604
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 1: I will. We still have a big balls Better the Week.

605
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 1: I was gonna do the Eagles, but you're on the Bucks.

606
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 1: All the money, all the bets are coming on Tampa.

607
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 1: That's I just feel like I have an idea for

608
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 1: the big balls Better the Week. I think it should

609
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: be the Kansas City Chiefs. Yeah, yeah, this is this

610
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 1: is when historically you want to bet on Mike Tomlin.

611
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 1: It's a ra ra Mike Tomlin, spot what what? And

612
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 1: the Chiefs have been inconsistent this year offensively. But the

613
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 1: reason to me why it's a big balls Better the

614
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 1: Week is because of the money right now is coming

615
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 1: in on the Steelers. It tells me that we're going

616
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 1: to be alone on an island. We're with the public

617
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 1: on this. This number has moved down it's clear the

618
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 1: wise guys are coming in on the Chiefs, I don't

619
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 1: see it with the Steelers team. Like, if the Steelers

620
00:29:56,840 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: defense holds the Chiefs to fourteen points, I think the

621
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 1: Chiefs still might cover because I don't see Ben. We've

622
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 1: said this all season long. Ben Roethlisberger's best play, throw

623
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,920
Speaker 1: the ball up downfield. Hope that because the ball is

624
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 1: so short, because he can't throw it more than twenty yards,

625
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 1: his receiver comes back and he gets some kind of DP.

626
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 1: I that's their offense right now. Tell me how the

627
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 1: Steelers are going to score again. As much I would

628
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 1: love to hate on chat about that, Stealers and score

629
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 1: a touchdown until the final two minutes. The last time

630
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 1: they played the Chiefs, They're like Tomlin was down thirty

631
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 1: points and he made it starter stay in just to

632
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 1: get a touchdown meaningless touchdown at the end of that game.

633
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's a fair point to make. Again, their

634
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 1: receivers are so talented, I can see them putting up

635
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 1: some type of points. Like the Steelers arguably have a

636
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 1: trio of the top five or top four best receivers

637
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 1: in football. Again, big Ben's horrible, but I could just

638
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 1: see that working out for them them getting at some points.

639
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 1: But the Chiefs matchup wise, I just love the matchup

640
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 1: for their offense going against his Pittsburgh defense. Pittsburgh, they're straight.

641
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 1: There has been a pass rush and against the run.

642
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 1: Mahomes knows that like the last time they played, he

643
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 1: was getting out quick. Once the once the d end's

644
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 1: got tired, once walk got a little tired, then he

645
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 1: would take his time. He would go along to the

646
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 1: hill where you'd take a middle shot to Kelsey. So

647
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 1: I'm right there with you, but I I wish I

648
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 1: could bet more on this with the Chiefs. The reason

649
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 1: I'm just pause ones because what you just said, I

650
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 1: know a bunch of professional groups have coming on Pittsburgh.

651
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 1: They have a different read than me. When I looked

652
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 1: at this game, immediately I was thinking myself, I'll take

653
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the over and a blowout like the

654
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 1: Chiefs will just be putting up a ton of points.

655
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 1: But in fairness to them, what they're looking at is

656
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 1: what you just said. With Pittsburgh. Their defense, they are

657
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 1: really good. They're they're really good against the past two

658
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 1: where they can rush the pass or we know how

659
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 1: young this offensive line is for the Chiefs, even though

660
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 1: they've been playing incredible this season. I think they're they're great.

661
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 1: Was the top three offensive line in Pro Football Focus,

662
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 1: So I'll give them their props. Chiefs have had one

663
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 1: of the better offensive line, especially with the past. But

664
00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 1: that's what these guys are looking at. These pros are

665
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 1: thinking themselves. I'm in twelve and a half thirteen points

666
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh. I'll take that number in a playoff match

667
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 1: up where historically double digit favorites at home and wild

668
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 1: card round cover. That's why you kind of want to

669
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 1: take the Chiefs in this position. The numbers work out

670
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 1: that it's a little chalky, but this is the kind

671
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 1: of chalky you do you want to be on in

672
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 1: the wild card round? Yeah, So here's another stat for you.

673
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: We talked all about sort of the short underdogs in

674
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 1: these spots home wild card favorites of ten or more.

675
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 1: Very small sample size. Since eight no straight up, eight

676
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 1: no against the spread, since two thousand double digit dogs

677
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: are to intend against the spread, the numbers get bigger.

678
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 1: This is like the antithesis of what you would normally think.

679
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: Right in the playoffs, it seems like the blowouts are

680
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: more common in the games where the numbers are bigger

681
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: and the closer games play more to type than you

682
00:32:56,560 --> 00:33:00,080
Speaker 1: would expect. And like people, we're giving me ship. I

683
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: was just shipping on Pittsburgh and the fact that they

684
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 1: beat up a banged up Rounds team and Ravens to

685
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 1: get in the playoffs, to get the opponent they nameless

686
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 1: gray faces. I'm just speaking facts. You're like the Ravens

687
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 1: were a team of backups. They had to go to

688
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 1: overtime just to beat that team. This is gonna be

689
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 1: a lot different with this Chief's team. And even that

690
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 1: that's that's back to back road games. Just Pittsburgh team.

691
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 1: They've just been better at home. Now it's good on

692
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 1: the road. Like Chad, just read that stat off. That

693
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 1: makes me feel way more confident in taking this this

694
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 1: Chief's number, because again, people know I love dogs. Not

695
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 1: in this round. Usually in the wild card, I leaned

696
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: towards more towards the favorites. And now a word from

697
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 1: our friends at Fandel, the NFL playoffs are here to celebrate.

698
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 1: Fandel Sports Book is giving all customers up to a

699
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 1: one hundred dollar bonus on same game parlays. Just place

700
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:52,600
Speaker 1: a same game parlay on any Super wild Card weekend

701
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 1: game and get a bonus whether you win or lose.

702
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 1: The more you bet, the more you get. For example,

703
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 1: this week, I'm considering the Kids, the City Moneyline, the Under,

704
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 1: and Big Bend Passing Yards Under Plus. Vandal Sports Book

705
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 1: is now live in New York with the best in

706
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 1: class app that's easy to use, safe and secure, and

707
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:14,399
Speaker 1: offers payouts and as little as two hours. So log

708
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 1: onto Vandual sports Book to unlock your same game parlay

709
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 1: bonus today. Plus. If it's your first time betting with Fandel,

710
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 1: you can also enjoy thirty to one odds on any

711
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 1: team in the wild Card to win. After using promo

712
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 1: code Favorites, you can turn a five dollar bet into

713
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars. Remember to use promo code

714
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 1: favorites so they know I sent you exclusively. The FanDuel

715
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 1: sports Book app must be one or over and present

716
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 1: in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia

717
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 1: or West Virginia. Bonus issued as non withdrawalbal cyite credit

718
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 1: that expires in seven days. Max bonus ten dollars. Restrictions

719
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,439
Speaker 1: apply see terms at sports book got FanDuel dot com

720
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,400
Speaker 1: same a probably available for multiple sports in all states

721
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 1: on mobile and web gambling problem called one eight hundred

722
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 1: next step or text next step to five three three

723
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 1: four two in Arizona one eight hundred gambler or visit

724
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 1: FanDuel dot com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey.

725
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 1: In Virginia one eight eight seven eight nine seven seven

726
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 1: seven seven, or visit CCPG dot org slash chat in

727
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 1: Connecticut one eight hundred to seven zero seven seven for

728
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:31,240
Speaker 1: confidential help. In Michigan one eight seven seven eight Hope

729
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 1: and why or text hope and why in New York

730
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 1: called the Tennessee Red Line one eight hundred eight eight

731
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 1: nine nine seven eight nine or visit one eight hundred

732
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. All right, we did

733
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,799
Speaker 1: sharp calls. We did our big balls better the week

734
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 1: on the Kansas City Chiefs. We've gone through the sides,

735
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 1: We've gone through the totals from Scoot Roulette. Last week.

736
00:35:58,160 --> 00:35:59,839
Speaker 1: I was on the Bengals at five and a half.

737
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 1: I would like permission to adjust that to four and

738
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 1: a half, since that's where the line is. Yeah, that's fair.

739
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 1: You're on the forty Niners plus three. I would say

740
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:12,240
Speaker 1: heading into the weekend, the bets that we currently feel

741
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 1: best about uh Niners plus three, Pats plus four or

742
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 1: four and a half the best number you can get.

743
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 1: We like the Bengals at minus four and a half

744
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:23,839
Speaker 1: or five the best number you can get. I think

745
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 1: we like Kansas City minus twelve and a half Kana

746
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:29,800
Speaker 1: City first half to the first half. And and I

747
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:33,800
Speaker 1: would also say Pat's bills under forty four and a half.

748
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 1: I like the Eagles a decent amount. Chad not feeling it,

749
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 1: which is fair. They do suck, so I got feeling it,

750
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 1: not feeling it. Do we want to offer a money

751
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 1: line parlay? Do we? Since since we love the Patriots,

752
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 1: we love the Niners, you like the Eagles? Do you

753
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,800
Speaker 1: want to put together sort of a short three team

754
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 1: money line parlay? We can do five team or if

755
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 1: people really want it. But like Chad just said, it's rare.

756
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 1: It's just rare to get dogs win an hour right

757
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 1: in the wild card round. It's just really hard because

758
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: usually the dogs on the road and come playoff time

759
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 1: home field. That's a real thing. Like the the Eagles

760
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 1: year we won the Super Bowl, we weren't good. But

761
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 1: we played Matt Ryan at home in the first round

762
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,080
Speaker 1: or the second round, I guess because we gotta buy.

763
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 1: And we played case Keenum at home and then we

764
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 1: were in the super Bowl. So that's that's why home

765
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 1: feels such a huge advantage. Is like these teams they're

766
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 1: coming into your home, they're playing. It's always advantage towards

767
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 1: a favorite. So the three would be easier. Um, just

768
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 1: because I don't it's gonna egos to fin. I wish

769
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 1: I could say I believe egos are gonna win. I

770
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 1: do not. I really don't because I can just see

771
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:38,840
Speaker 1: it with Tom there's any time remaining on the clock,

772
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 1: he's either going to drive the field and get that

773
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,800
Speaker 1: field goal or the touchdown. It's just this his Brady's

774
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 1: time of the year. This is what this man does.

775
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:47,839
Speaker 1: So I would throw the egos out. I wouldn't put

776
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 1: them in. We just talked about it since he has

777
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 1: not won a playoff game, since that's a lot of

778
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 1: history to be fighting. And like Joe Burrow, I hope

779
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:57,839
Speaker 1: he breaks the curse and he can change that whole

780
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 1: makeup of this team because he has like he's really

781
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 1: turn this team around. Just two years. But we're getting

782
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,840
Speaker 1: a dog get greater than plus two hundred and Las Vegas.

783
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 1: Give it to me. I'll take Vegas money line. I'll

784
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:14,239
Speaker 1: take the money line. I'll take the Patriots money line.

785
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 1: If you want to do the Cardinals, that's fine. I

786
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 1: just cannot trust Kingsbury. I'm gonna stay away from that one.

787
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:22,399
Speaker 1: So I'll do Patriots, I'll do the Vegas and I'll

788
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:25,319
Speaker 1: do Uh. I'm like, I'm thinking myself about the Kingsbury one,

789
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 1: like that's that's good, it's good value because it's Stafford.

790
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 1: Like if this is why I get while all these

791
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 1: pros are like, take the value of the Cardinals, but

792
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 1: I've already bet on the Rams and like my numbers

793
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 1: think it's a good number. I can't do it. But

794
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 1: if you're around Robin, if if you hate any other

795
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 1: ones we gave out, I cannot blame it if you're

796
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:41,839
Speaker 1: taking the Cardinals, like Stafford has literally been a train

797
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 1: wreck in the year here, so that's that's fair to

798
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 1: take them. But personally, I just will not be taking

799
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,920
Speaker 1: the Cardinals on my moneyline. Round Robins, all right, Vegas,

800
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,479
Speaker 1: Patriots and the Cardinals in the money line around Robbin

801
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 1: mind I put fourty oers in instead of Cardinals. Alright,

802
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:58,760
Speaker 1: Vegas Patriots in the Niners. You just mentioned the Eagles

803
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 1: and reminded me that today's January thirte yesterday was January twelve,

804
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 1: that is the exact four year anniversary of Action Network

805
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 1: dot Com going live. And uh, the reason I thought

806
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 1: of it is because you mentioned the Eagles, and that

807
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 1: was the first, you know, we went live during the playoffs,

808
00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 1: and so we were going live like in that divisional

809
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:31,759
Speaker 1: round and then um, the that Eagles game when they

810
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 1: were five or five and a half point dogs of

811
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:36,879
Speaker 1: the Patriots. You know, that was when everybody on our

812
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 1: team was on the Eagles, and we were coming out

813
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 1: and saying, look at us Action Network, we know better,

814
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 1: we're new, take the Eagles. Sure enough, it worked and

815
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 1: that was a rare time. SI the bets and six

816
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:52,040
Speaker 1: front of the money. We're all on the Eagles. So

817
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 1: sometimes let's hope they do this weekend, all right, for

818
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. For you, Sir Matt Mitchell, I am Chad Millman.

819
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the volume podcast Network

820
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:09,399
Speaker 1: download us, rate us five stars, say whatever you want

821
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 1: feedback as a gift you'd love to hear it from

822
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 1: Apple podcasts, from Spotify wherever you get your podcasts, and

823
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 1: to Tuesday Go Bills, Love You,