1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,360 Speaker 1: Hey, Dana, So alternative protein or fake meat? Have we 2 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: tried it? Yes? And how was it? It was great? 3 00:00:06,880 --> 00:00:11,039 Speaker 1: I've had beyond burgers, impossible burgers. I even had some 4 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: delightful sausages that weren't actually sausages just earlier this week. 5 00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 1: I am what you would call a flexitarian, so somebody 6 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:21,119 Speaker 1: who generally avoids meat but will still buy it and 7 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:23,759 Speaker 1: eat it from time to time. I once went a 8 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: whole year without any red meat at all, and I 9 00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: must say the thing that I missed the most that 10 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 1: year was a hamburger. So when I started seeing fake 11 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:34,160 Speaker 1: burgers showing up on menus and at the grocery store, 12 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: and I'm not talking about a veggie patty but something 13 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 1: that actually resembles a hamburger, I was pretty excited about it. So, yeah, 14 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:43,879 Speaker 1: I take it you like these they cut the mustard 15 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:49,479 Speaker 1: no pun intended. Okay, So years ago, my then girlfriend, 16 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:51,599 Speaker 1: no wife, and I would go to this vegetarian restaurant, 17 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: a Sunflower in Vienna, Virginia. If you know it, you 18 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 1: know it's fantastic place. But it always struck me as 19 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:59,279 Speaker 1: odd the attempts at replicating meat with like things like 20 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: satan and like I thought it really wasn't worth the effort. 21 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: I still don't, certainly not good enough to be worth 22 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 1: the effort. But I've tried the impossible burgher and all that, 23 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: and it seems fake meat has really come a long 24 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: way since then. And that's what we're here to talk 25 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: about today, This alternative to animal protein, be that poultry, fish, beef, 26 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:17,400 Speaker 1: or pork, and what it means to be fake meat, 27 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: whether made of plants or actual animal tissues growing in 28 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,400 Speaker 1: the lab. So today we speak with Hume Bromley, who 29 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 1: looks at consumer trends here at B A E F, 30 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 1: and he's going to talk to us about a report 31 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 1: titled Alternative Proteins Fake It Till You Make It. The 32 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: full report is available on the Bloomberg terminal, at BENF 33 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:36,120 Speaker 1: dot com or on BNF's mobile app. And as always, 34 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 1: BENF does not provide investment or strategy advice, and you 35 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: can hear a full disclaimer which will play at the 36 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 1: end of today's show. Now, let's hear about alternative proteins. 37 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 1: I'm Dana Perkins and I'm Mark Taylor, and you're listening 38 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 1: to Switch on the BENF podcast. Hi, Hi, thanks for 39 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 1: coming on the show today. Yeah, thanks having to be back. 40 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 1: So the title of the no that we're talking about today, 41 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 1: it's about, well, we're going to call it fake meat, 42 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: but alternative proteins fake it till you make it. So 43 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:10,360 Speaker 1: I want to know how fake is it. I have 44 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: a friend who actually refers to these, um, these alternative 45 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 1: hamburger patties that they actually have in the United States 46 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 1: is frank and food. So does it resemble the real 47 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:22,799 Speaker 1: food that we interact with or is it something that 48 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 1: I wouldn't even recognize due to the processing. Look, I've 49 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 1: had to try a bunch of things through you know 50 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 1: what you call market research. I guess for this this report, right, 51 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: and you know it's all it's all subjective, it's all 52 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: going to be individual opinion. But I mean, I think 53 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: the best ones I have tried that the best companies 54 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 1: that faking meat and the best ones are cooking it 55 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 1: afterwards probably do the same job as really poor quality beef. 56 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 1: Right now. You know, they might get better over time, 57 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 1: but no, certainly, no one's doing that I've tried has 58 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:54,919 Speaker 1: done a great job of replicating, you know, a great hamburger. 59 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 1: And and no one's anywhere clotis on on replicating a 60 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: steak or anything like that. But what are they actually 61 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: made of, Like, what's it comprised of? Most of the 62 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 1: stuff out there on the supermarket shells, but at the 63 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:08,639 Speaker 1: moment are are plant based, right, So they'll typically use 64 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: either a soy protein or a yellow p protein. So 65 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 1: basically you're growing that crop, you're extracting the protein from it, 66 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 1: you're basically running it through a big macerator and eventually 67 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 1: extruding it's mixing it with other ingredients and extruding it 68 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 1: like you would pasta or cereal into a form factor. 69 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 1: We recognize, you know, something that looks like like ground beef, 70 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: or if you've turned into a paddy, it might kind 71 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 1: of look like you can squint, you know, a chicken 72 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: fill it. I was just to get back when I 73 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 1: used to go to vegetarian restaurant and they would have 74 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 1: fake meat back in the day, made out of like 75 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: satan and stuff like that. I don't know, it was 76 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 1: just not good. My conclusion back then was, you know what, 77 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 1: let's get it. Just give me the veg. I'm good. Look, 78 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 1: I don't I don't disagree that there's new products out 79 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 1: there for decades, right at least or MILLENNIU if you 80 00:03:57,600 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 1: count things like tofu. There's been an alternative as protein, 81 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 1: alternatives to animal meats out there for for people that 82 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,839 Speaker 1: don't need it. What's different about this, what's different about 83 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 1: plant based meeting the culture, the lab growing meats that 84 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 1: are coming, is that they're not trying to offer a 85 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: new product of vegetarians and vegans. Really they want to 86 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,480 Speaker 1: win over the omnivores or at least the flexitarians, but 87 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 1: but ideally the omnivores or other people who eat meat. 88 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,600 Speaker 1: It's got to look, taste, feel, smell just like meat 89 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,359 Speaker 1: to do that, because otherwise, you know myself and you 90 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: will have that response. Just give me a vegetable, give 91 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: me meat, don't try and trick me. I mean, this 92 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: was fifteen years ago too, and you know, I'm sure 93 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 1: technology has approved. I've had a what beyond burger or whatever, 94 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:38,279 Speaker 1: and I thought it was good, it was great. I'm 95 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 1: really excited for this actually to happen. I would call 96 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 1: myself one of the flexitarians or I haven't even heard 97 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 1: that word, but I'd say that's what I am. You 98 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:48,720 Speaker 1: are at the target market, I think I am. Actually yeah, definitely, 99 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 1: you and me both so This is a bit of 100 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 1: a departure for benf Why did we actually choose to 101 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 1: write about alternative proteins. It's a good question, but being 102 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:56,840 Speaker 1: has been involving for a long time now right where 103 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,039 Speaker 1: we're no longer just a clean energy research firmly moved 104 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:03,919 Speaker 1: into transport industry decoganization, and I guess the common narrative 105 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 1: here is that we have these century old industries and 106 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 1: supply chains that are being threatened and disrupted by by 107 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 1: new incumbents, and those new incumbents are enabled by technology, 108 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: you know, whether that be falling prices of solar panels 109 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,479 Speaker 1: or or or electric vehicles, or whether in this case 110 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 1: it's you know, the potential cost reductions of making plant 111 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:25,839 Speaker 1: based or lab grown meats that will disrupt you know, 112 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 1: some of the biggest trading commodities of the planet meat. 113 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 1: And the only thing that leads that's come with all 114 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 1: of them is is massive emission reduction potential if this happens, 115 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 1: and if the company's offering plant based meat and cultured meats, 116 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 1: get it right, So you mentioned just now cultured meat, 117 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 1: and actually the very beginning of December, I saw an 118 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:47,279 Speaker 1: announcement that Singapore approved the very first lab growing meat 119 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 1: to be sold for regular people like you and meat 120 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:53,480 Speaker 1: to consume it. So my question is about that, how 121 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 1: is it made and what are some of the concerns 122 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 1: around the lab grown and cultured meat that have made 123 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 1: it kind of lead us to the market. That hasn't 124 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 1: been on the shelves for fifteen years, it's been on 125 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 1: the shelves for maybe fifteen days. It's really interesting stuff 126 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:07,719 Speaker 1: and exciting stuff that we finally have a product on 127 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 1: the market of coming to market soon in Singapore. Lab 128 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 1: grown meats, cultured meats, clean meats are sometimes called very 129 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:16,279 Speaker 1: different plant based. So you haven't tried this stuff before. 130 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 1: It's only been tasted in kind of experimental settings. And 131 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,160 Speaker 1: what it is is basically, it's it's real meats. It's 132 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: just grown inside inside an incubator inside a machine. So 133 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 1: it's where you're basically extracting animal cells from a live 134 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 1: animal from from a from a placenter, growing in a 135 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 1: machine by feeding it this kind of concoction of kind 136 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 1: of what you call food culture and basically exercising that 137 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:41,599 Speaker 1: inside this machine to make it grow like muscle would 138 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 1: grow muscle and that tissue and then when that's you know, 139 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:47,760 Speaker 1: whether that's finished growing inside this machine and you're you're 140 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:50,159 Speaker 1: scraping it out and you know, and using it like 141 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 1: you would ground beef. Eventually, maybe down the track you 142 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:55,840 Speaker 1: could even grow up an entire fiel it inside. So 143 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:57,720 Speaker 1: you know, it's it's a it's a process that they're 144 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 1: basically lifted from medical science. Not that uncommon at all, 145 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 1: but clearly very costly um and clearly new for the 146 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 1: food industry. The development Singapore is a company called it 147 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: Eat Just. They're certainly at the forefront of of the industry. 148 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 1: They're working across a whole bunch of different animals. The 149 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: development in Singapore looks to just apply the chicken right now, 150 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 1: but it's it's the first step in bringing these products 151 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 1: to market. So when people are talking about potentially growing organs, 152 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: this is a similar technology they're using to grow the 153 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: meat that will go on our plates. Yeah, very similar. Obviously, 154 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 1: you've got different cells, different culture every animal you grow, 155 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: and it requires a different environment, so different different temperature, 156 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 1: different culture. Obviously different cells that you're extracting, and different 157 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: timelines as well. But that it's it's just the same 158 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: as what you're seeing in some of those some of 159 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 1: those therapeutic or generative medicine practices. This feels very futuristic 160 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 1: to me. It does, look at it is futuristic. It 161 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: comes with that futuristic price tag as well. You know 162 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 1: that the original burghers that were being process this way, 163 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 1: we're costing something like a hundred thousand dollars a burger. Supposedly, 164 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: there's certainly companies out there that's you know, you're still 165 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 1: paying kind of hundredfold of premium of what you would 166 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 1: for for animal meats. But there are companies out there, 167 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 1: but certainly hope to bring that down to something that's 168 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 1: you know, more more like tenfold in the next few years. 169 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 1: Really costly. No reason why those costs couldn't come down. 170 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 1: Not you know that there's many reasons to beleeve the 171 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 1: costs should come down, just like we kind of I 172 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 1: said before, you know, very similar to solar panels or 173 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 1: batteries and e v s. You know, you've got this 174 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 1: cost curve, You've got a process that's infinitely scalable. You 175 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 1: just need to make more of these incubators, you know, 176 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 1: put more cells inside machines and you get more and 177 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: more product. A lot of the costs at the moment 178 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 1: comes from the culture. So you have specialized firms are 179 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 1: basically brewing up this culture to feed your your cell 180 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 1: lines and grow the meat that would need to come down. 181 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:54,319 Speaker 1: But it's got to have a learning rate behind it. 182 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 1: It's way too early to even put a number on 183 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 1: what that learning rate might be right now, but you know, 184 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,679 Speaker 1: it's it's a very scale, little repeatable process that that 185 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: that that that should come down. And you contrast that 186 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 1: to a very inefficient sector putting animals out to pasture 187 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 1: for for months or or years at a time to 188 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:13,320 Speaker 1: grow meat, you know, and and wasting the male metabolic 189 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 1: cycle to work to grow an animal that then butcher 190 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:19,319 Speaker 1: it to then waste a decent chunk of the carcass. 191 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 1: There is a whole lot of old waste there that 192 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:26,319 Speaker 1: that can be undercut by a futuristic, mechanical, automated process. 193 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 1: How is it going to be rolled out in these 194 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:31,079 Speaker 1: first adopters in Singapore? You know, is it going to 195 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 1: be high end restaurants with people waiting out the door 196 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 1: to get a shot at this, or is it going 197 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 1: to be you know, through more I guess fast food 198 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:41,319 Speaker 1: chains or places that'll sell this. Look. I imagine in 199 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:44,559 Speaker 1: Paul with this cultured chicken, it's got to be high end. 200 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 1: There is this disconnect between costs and price. When it 201 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,680 Speaker 1: comes to plant based meat, yes, it's price that are premium, 202 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:52,719 Speaker 1: but cost you could argue should be the same or 203 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 1: lower than animal meat. When it comes to cultured meat, 204 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:58,199 Speaker 1: it's costly and its pricey, and it's probably going to 205 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 1: stay that way for a while. So that there's the barrier. 206 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 1: They're kind of trying to find enough people willing to 207 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 1: sample it at that cost, and then you know, where 208 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 1: do you grow from there? Every country you go into 209 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 1: after Singapore you need to jump, you know, really strict 210 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,199 Speaker 1: and high regulatory hurdles. You know, in the US we're 211 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 1: going through that process right now. And because it's a 212 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 1: meat product but also an agricultural product, you're basically regulated 213 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 1: twice by the FDA, the Food and Drug Administration, and 214 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:26,720 Speaker 1: by the U S d A, the U. S. Department 215 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 1: of Agriculture, so all of which already have processes in 216 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: place for regulating livestock, for regulating meat and butchering, and 217 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:37,439 Speaker 1: for regulating basically all food supply chains. And you've got 218 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:39,680 Speaker 1: to meet all those existing hurdles, even though your product 219 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 1: might look and behave very differently. So that's specifically in 220 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 1: the United States. How about an other parts of the world. 221 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 1: Does the FDA have the most stringent standards and therefore 222 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 1: they translate over to other countries or you know, I've 223 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:52,560 Speaker 1: had a beyond Burger here in London's I mean, there 224 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:55,199 Speaker 1: definitely is an equivalent here in the UK. What's the 225 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,560 Speaker 1: view on these products in other parts of the world. Well, 226 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:00,719 Speaker 1: I think you see these companies kind of pushing for 227 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: some sort of consistency amongst different regions and how they regulators, 228 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:06,440 Speaker 1: But it is an entirely different process right now. If 229 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 1: you want to go into the EU, you need to 230 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 1: go through the regulator. If you want to go the US, 231 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: you go through the USD, usd A and f d A. 232 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 1: They're pushing for consistency, but at the same time, they 233 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 1: really want to protect their their secret source, protect their processes, 234 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:22,200 Speaker 1: protect protect their recipes, so they can't be open book 235 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 1: with their competitors. The push for industry stands across the 236 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:26,959 Speaker 1: world because they're trying to be market leaders at the 237 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 1: same time. Now, for a very short break, stay with us, 238 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 1: so let's talk about adoption of alternative proteins. Both kinds 239 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 1: the plant based and then maybe someday the cultured meat 240 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: coming to a plate near you. In this research note, 241 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:45,080 Speaker 1: you talked a lot about the United States, and my 242 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 1: question also has to do with whether or not that 243 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 1: is the primary market for these products at this point 244 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 1: in time and where the real growth is coming from, 245 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 1: because what immediately comes to my mind is, you know, 246 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 1: the consumer preferences in Asia, for example, are really gravitating 247 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 1: increasingly towards animal proteins and meats with raising GDPs and well, 248 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 1: I mean the maybe taste are changing as well. Can 249 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 1: you give us some color on that. There's a couple 250 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 1: of questions in there, right, But first of all, where 251 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:14,440 Speaker 1: where's this stuff being trial today? Who's eating it? If 252 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:16,400 Speaker 1: you look at the leaders companies like Beyond Meat or 253 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 1: Impossible Foods and where they're actively marketing and selling their products, 254 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: it is certainly biased towards the Western hemisphere. They target 255 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 1: North America, US and Canada a target primary markets, certainly 256 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 1: the European Union UK in the preferences are changing there, 257 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:34,320 Speaker 1: there's healthy decisions being made. And in some other places 258 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 1: like like like Australias on their radar as well, you 259 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 1: do see a lot of announcements coming out of Asia. 260 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:43,079 Speaker 1: Sometimes it's the same firms moving into Asia. A landmark 261 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: deal with Starbucks recently struck in China. But you also 262 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 1: see a lot of local firms as well, local startups 263 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:51,480 Speaker 1: getting traction in places like Japan and career in China. 264 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:55,079 Speaker 1: In Singapore, we've seen these firms pop up. And these 265 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:57,600 Speaker 1: are countries they're the more, but I guess the more 266 00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:01,080 Speaker 1: they're the wealthier Asian countries. It's still with changing consumer 267 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,160 Speaker 1: preferences and servicing the greater Asia market. With with growing 268 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: meat appetite. The challenge there I think will be one 269 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 1: the meat attachment levels and outside of China and the 270 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 1: countries Malaysia, Singapore, meat attachments or not all that high 271 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:17,120 Speaker 1: meat consumption the past has not been all that great. 272 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: And what you see when you look at kind of 273 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 1: meat consumption over decades and generations as an economy comes 274 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 1: with wealthier certainly the rate of meat intake, the annual 275 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 1: the per capita intake of meat increases. But if you 276 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,320 Speaker 1: start from a very low base, you don't catch up 277 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:34,680 Speaker 1: to the US, you don't catch up to Western Europe. 278 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 1: You just grow from your lower base. You start at 279 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 1: a high base, you know now I'm thinking kind of 280 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 1: Latin America, maybe you will catch up to the US 281 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 1: on a per capita basis, but they're small, population small, 282 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 1: but populations with growing wealth. So really the opportunity is 283 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 1: huge my population perspective in those countries. But chances are 284 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 1: they one don't have the meat attachment because they haven't 285 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 1: had as much meat in their diets historically. As their 286 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 1: meat appetite grows, it's just not going to be the 287 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 1: same level as what you see in kind of in 288 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:04,320 Speaker 1: the West. I mean this has a lot to do 289 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:06,959 Speaker 1: with cultural factors. When you say meat attachment, I mean 290 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 1: it has to do with like the recipes that somebody knows, Right, 291 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 1: So if I'm going to make something for dinner, I'm 292 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 1: going to go to a recipe that maybe my mom 293 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 1: taught me, and that may not necessarily involve animal protein. 294 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 1: Are there other things that come into play here that 295 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 1: maybe I don't know about. There's certainly trends happening in meat. 296 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:24,800 Speaker 1: Let's let's put plant based on cultured meat aside for 297 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 1: a moment, But just the big trends happening and meat 298 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 1: right now are consumers are making healthier decisions, They're switching 299 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 1: from bread, meat, beef and lamb, and some extent poor 300 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 1: chicken and seafood. That's a trend that's happening already, or 301 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 1: the eating smaller portions in Europe for example, in some 302 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 1: case of the US. So they're making those healthy decisions 303 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 1: regardless of alternatives that are that are available to them, 304 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 1: and certainly they're looking for convenience. So yeah, you're seeing 305 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 1: the majority of meat I think you meant for most 306 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 1: animals being consumed in your prepackaged, preportioned individual cuts. It's 307 00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 1: actually quite rare now to go and take a whole 308 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 1: chicken home in many of these countries, or bring home 309 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 1: a whole whole cut of lamb or beef. You know, 310 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 1: people are looking for convenience, and that's great news if 311 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:08,480 Speaker 1: you are a supplier of alternative meat, because it means 312 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 1: you don't need to make your product look like an animal. 313 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 1: You need to make it look like the regurgitative product 314 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,000 Speaker 1: that comes out of the end. Can you tell us 315 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 1: a bit more about who's involved in who's producing these 316 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 1: alternative proteins, and who's investing in them, so people are 317 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: generally familiar with the real market leaders here and possible 318 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 1: foods and beyond meat, and those firms have got enormous 319 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 1: traction off one know, I p o S and secondly 320 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: through announcements and partnerships with fast food chains in many 321 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 1: cases with McDonald's, with Starbucks, with Burger King. But there 322 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 1: are others out there. I mean, certainly if you're sitting 323 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 1: in the UK, be familiar with corn. It's been around 324 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 1: for decades now, Good Catch foods, doing seafood, you know, Primaries, 325 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 1: Alpha Foods. There's lots out there. These are the brand 326 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 1: names that are selling the alternatives, but actually what's interesting 327 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: is what's behind them right as some are still venture backed. 328 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 1: The top six players here have raised about two and 329 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: a half billion dollars since eleven. A lot of that's 330 00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 1: come from venture, you know, from really big name venture 331 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 1: as well, also Richard Branson, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezas, Jay 332 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 1: z Serena Williams. Really broad pool of venture that it's 333 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: backing these companies. I guess. More recently we've seen a 334 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:12,440 Speaker 1: wave of acquisitions and internal business units being started by 335 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 1: massive food conlawance. You know, Kellogg's has a stake here, 336 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 1: Maple Foods, Nestle, Craft, Hyn's, they're all getting in on 337 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 1: this space early really, but before we see massive baptech. Okay, 338 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 1: so you just mentioned Serena Williams, and I can't help 339 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 1: but immediately think. You know, she's a professional athlete. She 340 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 1: has got to have an extremely healthy diet, and she's 341 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 1: looking at this and she may have had the same 342 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 1: thoughts that I originally did when I went to take 343 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 1: a bite into my first beyond burger, which is, oh, 344 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 1: it's made of plants, so therefore it must be healthier. 345 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 1: Is that the case? It's complicated right to start with. 346 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 1: So certainly when you asked why they would choose or 347 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 1: become interested in plant based meat, the most common reason 348 00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 1: they site is health. And then there's other attributes like 349 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 1: environmental you know, lower emissions or land use or water, 350 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 1: animal welfare they might care about, but health is certainly 351 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,400 Speaker 1: number one. Firstly, what's interesting is if you are concerned 352 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:06,400 Speaker 1: by health, is a greater chance you just eat less 353 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:08,239 Speaker 1: meat than you you'll eat plant based meat. So if 354 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:11,360 Speaker 1: there's complicating fact to number one. But secondly, let's talk 355 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 1: about the health of plant based meat, and it's really 356 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:17,159 Speaker 1: debatable is whether it's healthier or not. You know, in 357 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,639 Speaker 1: many cases you'll see that plant based meat has higher 358 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: fat content necessily saturated fat content. But if the higher 359 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:26,159 Speaker 1: fat content, then meat lower protein content, and depending on 360 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 1: how you look at it, you know, higher sodium. What's 361 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,239 Speaker 1: really complicated about this stuff is when you go and 362 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: buy some plant based meat off the shelf at a 363 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:36,400 Speaker 1: test you or your local supermarket, it's already been mixed 364 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:38,359 Speaker 1: with all these other ingredients to make it kind of 365 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 1: a final product, so it's already loaded with the sodium 366 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 1: or arrest of it. You're going by a container of 367 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:45,639 Speaker 1: mints off the shelf next to it, and it's not 368 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,920 Speaker 1: it's a raw ingredient. So quite often consumers are comparing 369 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 1: kind of a raw ingredient with a process ingredient, the 370 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 1: plant based. When you start comparing plant based products like 371 00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:01,159 Speaker 1: burger patties and sausages to meet burghers and sausages and 372 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 1: over comparing ingredients to products or comparing products to products, 373 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 1: then it starts to look a little bit better. Still, 374 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 1: the protein content is lower. Still, the fact content killed 375 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,359 Speaker 1: can be higher, but suddenly the sodium would worry a 376 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 1: whole lot of consumers. Tends the balance out. Okay, so 377 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: we've spent a lot of time already today talking a 378 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,920 Speaker 1: lot about this in terms of ground beef, and this 379 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 1: raises another point around what these alternative proteins actually are 380 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:30,360 Speaker 1: what they're looking to mimic. So we're talking about what 381 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 1: we've got. You mentioned sausages, so we're talking pork, beef, chicken. 382 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 1: I think I've seen a toe fur ky in the past, 383 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,399 Speaker 1: but maybe that doesn't fall into the scope here. And 384 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:43,119 Speaker 1: then also fish, if you could give us a little 385 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:46,920 Speaker 1: bit of insight into what this fish is like and 386 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 1: kind of what the potential uptake is of that. Sure, 387 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,199 Speaker 1: so if you can name and animal, chances are there 388 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,680 Speaker 1: there's a fake version out there. Most of the attention 389 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 1: to date has been around ground beef products. I think 390 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 1: one it's because there is That's where I'm most health 391 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:04,639 Speaker 1: concerned lives. Secondly, it's because actually it's pretty easy to replicate. 392 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 1: You know, it's already highly processed, so therefore you know 393 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 1: you've mashed up all your vegetables or your plant into 394 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 1: this paste and arrive at something that isn't too similar 395 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 1: to ground beef. And further, I guess there is that 396 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:17,919 Speaker 1: environmental impact as well, beef resulting a whole lot more 397 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:20,719 Speaker 1: emissions than these other livestock animals do. That's why they 398 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 1: get attention, and hype has been around beat today. But 399 00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 1: if you look at what's available on the shelf, and 400 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 1: you look at kind of sales by value out there, 401 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,160 Speaker 1: and it broadly alignes with meat sales. You know, about 402 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 1: a third of it is beef in the US, about 403 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 1: a quarter of it is fake chicken, Nearly a quarter 404 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: of it is fake pork and fake bacon, and then 405 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:40,359 Speaker 1: there's kind of this mix of other stuff. And that 406 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 1: other stuff you're right, includes fish, includes turkey, includes duck, 407 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,920 Speaker 1: and often nondescript kind of you know, here's some fake meat. 408 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 1: Moculan animal name. Fish is a really interesting one. Actually, 409 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 1: see food more broadly is really interesting. I've seeing fake shrimp, 410 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 1: fake prawns, fake fish out there, and it's interesting because 411 00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 1: from a plant based perspective, sure, you're basically doing it 412 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 1: the same why you're mashing together proteins, adding some different 413 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:04,680 Speaker 1: ingredients to make it seem more like like fish or 414 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 1: sea food than than others. But when it comes to 415 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: cultured meats, it starts to get really interesting, really strange 416 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 1: because fish is a cold blood animal, and it's the 417 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 1: only cold blood animal we we we listed there in 418 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 1: terms of animals that humans consume. It's actually much easier 419 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 1: to grow in an artificial environment as much less energy intensive, 420 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:26,440 Speaker 1: and it can be faster, so you can incubate the 421 00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 1: as so long as you have the settings right, you 422 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:32,920 Speaker 1: can grow them inside these artificial artificial environments for potentially 423 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:34,679 Speaker 1: a lower cost than you could for for any of 424 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 1: these other farmed livestock. The complicating fact you're here is 425 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: that fish are not growing. You know, they're caught in 426 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 1: almost every you know, basically ever in any country in 427 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:46,280 Speaker 1: the world. There's no massive supply constraint apart from over 428 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:50,880 Speaker 1: fishing and which is which is huge, but there's also 429 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,439 Speaker 1: not the same emissions consequence as you get from beef 430 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 1: and from pork. Over fishing problems. Definitely, I'd love to 431 00:20:57,840 --> 00:20:59,680 Speaker 1: solve that. I mean, as a consumer, I am now 432 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:01,960 Speaker 1: you're our get market for the fish when I also 433 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,880 Speaker 1: think of diseases associated with farm grown fish as well. 434 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,639 Speaker 1: Instead of farm growing fish, get me some lab grown fish. 435 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: You know what's amazing about fish is most people that 436 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:12,240 Speaker 1: covered this stuff don't look at fish because the only 437 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,680 Speaker 1: c D and IRONPHO stuff. When they look at meat, 438 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: they not fish and seafood they just think about red 439 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:21,680 Speaker 1: meat and poultry basically and look at appetite over over time. 440 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,120 Speaker 1: And if you do that, you see economies like you're 441 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:26,360 Speaker 1: peeking out a few years ago in terms of meat 442 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:29,320 Speaker 1: consumption per capita and starting to fall. Now it's only 443 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:31,200 Speaker 1: once you add seafood back on top of that, but 444 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:33,440 Speaker 1: you realize they're not peeking in their meat consumption, they're 445 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 1: just switching to seafood um. So there is growing demand there. 446 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 1: And it was taking a lot of data assemble to 447 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,160 Speaker 1: put this together so we can look at meatst land 448 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,159 Speaker 1: based meats and seafood in one report and realize, actually 449 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:49,199 Speaker 1: the trends totally different. Common misconception because I definitely didn't 450 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 1: even think about fish until we got ready to prepare 451 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,200 Speaker 1: for this show today. So I feel like the other 452 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 1: side of it, that side of the coin has to 453 00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:58,920 Speaker 1: have something to say about this, right, So the meat 454 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 1: and fish lobby, right, they've got to be having something 455 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,440 Speaker 1: to say about alternatives to their product, right. Yeah, And 456 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: the meat lobby groups are enormous and powerful. They're certainly 457 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 1: watching this space. But you know a lot of the 458 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:12,960 Speaker 1: data is coming from there. You know in the US 459 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:16,199 Speaker 1: that cattleman's Association saying look at look everyone, it's okay. 460 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:20,920 Speaker 1: Only point three percent of meat consumed or substitutes, only 461 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 1: half percent of beef. It's it's it's small. You know, 462 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 1: it's nothing to worry about yet. But Mark, I mean 463 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 1: you're you're back there for in yours and then in 464 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,360 Speaker 1: the mid two thousands as well. Around is it's it's 465 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 1: it's very familiar, small numbers, industry being potentially being disrupted, 466 00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:39,120 Speaker 1: technology changing all the time, and an enormous powerful incumbent 467 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,199 Speaker 1: lobby groups. I think what's different this time around is 468 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,880 Speaker 1: that energy companies in an economy were big and they 469 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:46,880 Speaker 1: could be disrupted, but we kind of knew that knew 470 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,440 Speaker 1: the extent of the of the scope. When you talk 471 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 1: about livestock, you know where I where I'm sitting right 472 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 1: now in Australia, I think animals a year, some of 473 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 1: them are ark for our second or third biggest export. 474 00:22:56,440 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: It's it's enormous and enormous late you know, enormous from 475 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 1: a labor perspective as well, in terms of farmers and 476 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 1: and and rural and agricultural community, enormous in land holdings, 477 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:11,880 Speaker 1: enormeless in money, enormous in trade um enormous in foreign investment. 478 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,199 Speaker 1: This actually, I think in many cases is bigger than 479 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,760 Speaker 1: energy and has more powerful voices. Okay, so if you're 480 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,640 Speaker 1: saying it's that big, then I think you've confirmed that 481 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:24,360 Speaker 1: this is a place for some potential huge growth. Those 482 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,240 Speaker 1: who maybe haven't interacted with this in the past probably 483 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 1: will in the future. My question really revolves around how 484 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:34,200 Speaker 1: quickly do we see this happening? Because it is consumer lead. 485 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:37,440 Speaker 1: I know there's no science to predicting the future, but Hugh, 486 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 1: what do you think is this going to be ubiquitous 487 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:43,120 Speaker 1: in five years, ten years, fifty years. Yeah, you've really 488 00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 1: put me on the spot there. I think in the 489 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:48,960 Speaker 1: it's there's a lot of really interestreme developments happening here. 490 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 1: Falling castle as ingredients and said that could lead to 491 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 1: massive disruption. If you look at what's happening today, you 492 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:55,920 Speaker 1: know you've got about forty of US adults. I don't 493 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 1: think it's that different. In Western Europe have tried the stuff. 494 00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:00,680 Speaker 1: Very few say they don't like it in anyway you 495 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:02,240 Speaker 1: know that they're all okay with it. There's lots of 496 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 1: repeat sampling, repeat purchasing happening, but but very few Abanity 497 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 1: meat and if they are, they're they're not switching to substitutes. 498 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 1: They're kind of mixing this into their diets. So it's 499 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 1: a small proportion of their diet. Maybe that will grow 500 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,199 Speaker 1: over time. Maybe the proportion of people that try it 501 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,880 Speaker 1: will and eat it will grow over time. But basically 502 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,720 Speaker 1: where we are today is that we have a number 503 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 1: of market leaders who control who control the industry really essentially, 504 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,200 Speaker 1: and they're pricing this at a premium to everything else 505 00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 1: that's out there, and generally for most of these animal times, 506 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,040 Speaker 1: we're talking about kind of twice the cost of animal 507 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 1: meat at the supermarkets of reach out pricing now, and 508 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 1: that really doesn't lend itself to massive growth. Where we've 509 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:40,760 Speaker 1: kind of got the Tesla strategy here that it's sell 510 00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,200 Speaker 1: this to people who care about these, you know, these 511 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:47,159 Speaker 1: aspirational qualities of health for animal welfare, but not expect 512 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,160 Speaker 1: a huge amount of growth. I think in that scenario, 513 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 1: you know, I've kind of said it's somewhat similar to 514 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,720 Speaker 1: kind of fair trade products or fair trade coffee. You know, 515 00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 1: we might get you know, from where we are today 516 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:57,919 Speaker 1: point three percent and meat to something like you know, 517 00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,480 Speaker 1: one and a half, maybe maybe a cup four percent 518 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:04,240 Speaker 1: of meat sales over the coming decades. What would really 519 00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:06,600 Speaker 1: become interesting if the pitch changes that that pitch at 520 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:08,680 Speaker 1: the moment is justified by the way it's justified because 521 00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:12,080 Speaker 1: their supply constraints. There's not enough in particular p protein 522 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,879 Speaker 1: out there to make the address or market any bigger. 523 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,120 Speaker 1: But what happens if there is What happens if these 524 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:20,040 Speaker 1: bottlenecks to kind of are are untied or solved, and 525 00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 1: then it becomes really interesting because this stuff could get 526 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:24,680 Speaker 1: really cheap. We could we could be you know, grinding 527 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:28,439 Speaker 1: up plant based proteins inter pace performing into into meats 528 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,080 Speaker 1: that if they can get the recipes right and make 529 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:33,119 Speaker 1: it seem like meat could be the same cost or 530 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 1: less than animal meats and could have all these aspirational 531 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 1: qualities at no cost to consumers. It's free or or 532 00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 1: even a discount to to meat products. And that's where 533 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,560 Speaker 1: the numbers will really start to move. In our view. 534 00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:50,440 Speaker 1: We started looking at parallels. There two things like genetically 535 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,119 Speaker 1: modified corn at the far extent, you know that that 536 00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,560 Speaker 1: you know, just a couple of decades has become the 537 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 1: dominant plant to crop across the US. And in the 538 00:25:57,880 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 1: middle of something like diet soda. I think they're really 539 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 1: strong and ourlogy here with diet soda cost the same 540 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,119 Speaker 1: desoda when it's sugar field soda when you go to 541 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 1: the store, but you're getting that aspirational quality of health 542 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 1: and healthy is aspirational, by the way, it's not it's 543 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:14,280 Speaker 1: not universal. Um, I was going to say, diet soda healthy. 544 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,920 Speaker 1: I don't know. You yeah, but but it's it's something 545 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,159 Speaker 1: that you don't necessarily need. You could just not have soda. 546 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:21,320 Speaker 1: Same with meat, you could not have meat, or you 547 00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 1: could go to the alternative if it's the same price. 548 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:25,440 Speaker 1: But if you can get at that same price, you 549 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:27,760 Speaker 1: diet service suggest that you get kind of twenty five 550 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,680 Speaker 1: to the market. If you can sell a product for 551 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,360 Speaker 1: the same price as the competitor, that's roughly close enough 552 00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,679 Speaker 1: to the real thing to convince convince consumers to buy it. 553 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 1: At the moment, were certainly on a pathway towards single 554 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:43,120 Speaker 1: digit percent of meat sales. We really need the price 555 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,960 Speaker 1: to change, Maybe the technology costs to come down a bit, 556 00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,160 Speaker 1: but really priced your marketing strategies to change if you're 557 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,879 Speaker 1: to see really high bunch levels and therefore the emission consequence. 558 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 1: So you. This was a lot of fun. Thank you 559 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 1: very much for coming on the show today. And I 560 00:26:58,320 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 1: think it was a lot of fun just because I 561 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:01,880 Speaker 1: sudly love the shows where we get to talk about 562 00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:04,840 Speaker 1: stuff that I'm actually going to get to see and touch. 563 00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,520 Speaker 1: While I do love the electricity that is powering my 564 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 1: computer right now, and that is a compelling topic. I 565 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 1: am also really interested in what I'm having for lunch today, 566 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,600 Speaker 1: So you've You've closed the loop for me, Hugh, Thanks 567 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:17,360 Speaker 1: for joining us. Thanks very much, great to be here. 568 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:28,399 Speaker 1: Today's episode of Switched On was edited by Rex Warner 569 00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 1: of Gray Stoak Media. Bloomberguin e F is a service 570 00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 1: provided by Bloomberg Finance LP and its affiliates. This recording 571 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:37,320 Speaker 1: does not constitute, nor should it be construed as investment advice, 572 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 1: investment recommendations, or a recommendation as to an investment or 573 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,560 Speaker 1: other strategy. Bloomberguin e F should not be considered as 574 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 1: information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. Neither 575 00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Finance LP nor any of its affiliates makes any 576 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,399 Speaker 1: representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of 577 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,439 Speaker 1: the information contained in this recording, and any liability as 578 00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:58,479 Speaker 1: a result of this recording, did expressly disclain