WEBVTT - Why Trump Ditched the G-7 Before It Was Over

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<v Speaker 1>Boo Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump was in Alberta, Canada this week in the

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<v Speaker 2>resort town of Kananaskis for a meeting of the Group

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<v Speaker 2>of Seven. He was scheduled to meet with other world

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<v Speaker 2>leaders over two days, but on Monday afternoon, the White

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<v Speaker 2>House announced Trump's plans to leave early right after dinner.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm in Alberta reporting on the G seven with a

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<v Speaker 2>team of Bloomberg colleagues from all over the world, including

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<v Speaker 2>Nick Wadhams, who oversees our coverage of diplomacy and national security,

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<v Speaker 2>and Nick told me to him at least Trump's decision

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<v Speaker 2>to head home early was not a total surprise.

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<v Speaker 1>There had been these hints throughout the day if you

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<v Speaker 1>had been looking for them.

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<v Speaker 2>Something Nick and I have been following is how the

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<v Speaker 2>conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran has

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<v Speaker 2>upended the agenda at this summit.

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<v Speaker 1>The President, at brief Q and A with Caer Starmer

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<v Speaker 1>had said, you know, he had a lot to get

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<v Speaker 1>back to this I think go on basically is at

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<v Speaker 1>the negotiating table, they want to make a deal, and

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<v Speaker 1>as soon as I leave you we're going to be

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<v Speaker 1>doing something, but I have to leave you. I have,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, this commitment. I have a lot of commitments.

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<v Speaker 1>We kept foreshadowing that something big was going to happen

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<v Speaker 1>on Iran, and of course he had also sent this

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<v Speaker 1>tweet essentially saying, you know, everybody needs to evacuate Tehran.

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<v Speaker 1>So that then created a lot of anxiety that, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>the US is essentially on the cusp of being pulled

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<v Speaker 1>into the Iran conflicts.

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<v Speaker 2>Before Trump boarded Air Force one to head back to Washington,

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<v Speaker 2>he joined the other G seven leaders for an official

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<v Speaker 2>photograph and he responded to a few questions from reporters.

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<v Speaker 1>It's really nice. I wish I could stay for tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 2>But did they understand this big stuff?

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<v Speaker 1>Questions for anybody else?

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<v Speaker 2>And then after dinner, Trump was gone, to the frustration

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<v Speaker 2>of some of the other participants, many of whom hoped

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<v Speaker 2>to hammer out trade deals with the US President. Vladimir

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<v Speaker 2>Zelenski came here to make the case for more aid.

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<v Speaker 1>You had had a lot of leaders who essentially flew

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<v Speaker 1>to Alberta basically just to see Donald Trump. I'm thinking

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<v Speaker 1>chiefly of the Mexican president Claudie Schanbaum, who actually flew

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<v Speaker 1>commercially from Mexico City to meet President Trump, and she

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<v Speaker 1>had not met him yet in his term, and she

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<v Speaker 1>didn't get that meeting.

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<v Speaker 2>Historically, G seven summits have been forums for deal making

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<v Speaker 2>and diplomacy, and the US has played a big role.

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump could have used this one. Nick told me

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<v Speaker 2>to rally US allies to express support for Israel and

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<v Speaker 2>to put more pressure on Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>The G seven would be a tool the President would use. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>this president clearly sees the G seven almost as a

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<v Speaker 1>hindrance to his policies, where he sees it essentially is

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<v Speaker 1>standing in the way of his desire to get what

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<v Speaker 1>he wants out of the Midias conflict.

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<v Speaker 2>On Tuesday, back in Washington, President Trump posted on social

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<v Speaker 2>media a call for Iran's quote unconditional surrender, and in

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<v Speaker 2>another post, he praised the United States' military capabilities, raising

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<v Speaker 2>more questions about what comes next. I'm David Gera here

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<v Speaker 2>on the sidelines of the G seven Leader summit in Alberta, Canada,

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<v Speaker 2>and this is the big take from Bloomberg News Today

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<v Speaker 2>on the show. Why did President Trump decide to leave

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<v Speaker 2>here early? What did it have to do, if anything,

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<v Speaker 2>with the US role in the conflict between Israel and Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>and what does it leave hanging in the balance? Nick

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<v Speaker 2>Shortly after the President left, he told reporters that he

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<v Speaker 2>was leaving to negotiate a real end to this conflict

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<v Speaker 2>in the Middle East, that he wasn't about trying to

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<v Speaker 2>find a short term ceasefire or a temporary ceasefire. On

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<v Speaker 2>the other hand, their speculation maybe he left because he

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<v Speaker 2>wanted to get the US more engaged militarily in this conflict,

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<v Speaker 2>and we saw some administration officials pushing back on that.

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<v Speaker 2>What's the latest best thinking about what the White House

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<v Speaker 2>approach to this conflict is going to be now that

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<v Speaker 2>the President is back in Washington, DC.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I think what you're seeing here is a White

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<v Speaker 1>House that is still very much grappling with this decision.

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<v Speaker 1>So the President, it seems, essentially has two options. One

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<v Speaker 1>is the US gets involved and contributes the bunker busting

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<v Speaker 1>bombs that it has in its arsenal. The President, I

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<v Speaker 1>think is deciding between that on the one hand, and

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<v Speaker 1>also he has a notion that it is possible to

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<v Speaker 1>achieve a sort of grand diplomatic solution. I think he

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<v Speaker 1>does believe that if Israel and potentially the US push

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<v Speaker 1>hard enough, squeeze Iran hard enough, both militarily and through

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<v Speaker 1>sanctions and through other economic pressure, that Iran will essentially

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<v Speaker 1>capitulate and agree to a broader deal that potentially giving

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<v Speaker 1>up its nuclear program entirely. Of course, there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of debate about that. I mean, diplomacy at the point

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<v Speaker 1>of a gun has its skeptics, because what, Okay, you

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<v Speaker 1>get Iran to agree to something, Well, then what happens next.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, let's look at each of those tracks one by one,

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<v Speaker 2>and I'll start with the diplomatic one. Israel's initial attack

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<v Speaker 2>on Iran took place just a couple of days before

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<v Speaker 2>there were supposed to be talks in Aman, the sixth

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<v Speaker 2>round of talks on denuclearization on Iran's nuclear program. Given

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<v Speaker 2>all that's happened, is Iran eager or willing, I should say,

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<v Speaker 2>to come to the table once again.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it's a great question, because Iranian officials have essentially

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<v Speaker 1>left the door open to talks, which is pretty extraordinary.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, they are currently in a open, hot conflict

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<v Speaker 1>with Israel, and they are saying, listen, we have never

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<v Speaker 1>closed the door to negotiations. We are willing to continue

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<v Speaker 1>to talk.

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<v Speaker 2>You know.

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<v Speaker 1>The big question, though, is a thing that the two

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<v Speaker 1>sides have never been able to resolve, which is, on

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<v Speaker 1>the one hand, you have the US saying Iran, you

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<v Speaker 1>should not be allowed to enrich uranium. Any deal that

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<v Speaker 1>we agree to would essentially take enrichment off off the table.

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<v Speaker 1>You cannot produce the material that would go into a

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear power plan or a nuclear bomb. Iran says, no,

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<v Speaker 1>that is the one thing we really want more than

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<v Speaker 1>anything else. We want to have the right to enrich.

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<v Speaker 1>The two sides have never figured out how to breach

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<v Speaker 1>that fundamental sticking point, and there is still no evidence

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<v Speaker 1>that they're anywhere closer.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's the diplomatic path, pivoting to the potential military one.

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<v Speaker 2>What are the long term considerations that the president is

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<v Speaker 2>considering here. It sounds like there's a lot of internal

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<v Speaker 2>politics at play here between sort of the Trump part

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<v Speaker 2>of the Republican Party and the kind of hawkish toward

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<v Speaker 2>Iran part of the Republican Party as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Right having covered wars in the Middle East for a

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<v Speaker 1>long time, you tend to see certain patterns that develop,

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<v Speaker 1>and right now, the conversation that's happening in Washington at least,

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<v Speaker 1>is this notion that the President's going to send a

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<v Speaker 1>B two bomber over to Iran. It's going to drop

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of these thirty thousand pound bombs and then

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<v Speaker 1>problem solved. So there's a real fixation on this idea

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<v Speaker 1>that by getting involved, the US can essentially destroy Iran's

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear program once and for all with a single military strike.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of the President's critics, both within the Republican

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<v Speaker 1>Party and among Democrats, are saying, wait a minute, have

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<v Speaker 1>we not learned the lessons of twenty years of war

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<v Speaker 1>in Afghanistan and Iraq and elsewhere. The solution is never

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<v Speaker 1>so simple. What if we discover that Iran has hidden

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear sites where it's conducting some of this enrichment activity

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<v Speaker 1>and secret What if a strike doesn't work, What if

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<v Speaker 1>Iran then attacks US bases elsewhere in Iraq or in

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<v Speaker 1>the UAE or in cutter and then the US has

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<v Speaker 1>to respond militarily, as President Trump is threatened to do

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<v Speaker 1>if US forces are attacked. So you have this notion

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<v Speaker 1>that there is a very simple solution here, But then

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<v Speaker 1>there are a lot of critics who say, listen, you

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<v Speaker 1>start down this road. It is just going to pull

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<v Speaker 1>the US even deeper into exactly the type of war

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<v Speaker 1>that President Trump has said he wants to avoid.

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<v Speaker 2>As Day two of the G seven unfolds, it's clear

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<v Speaker 2>the President may have had other reasons for returning to

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<v Speaker 2>the White House early. We'll get into those after the break. Nick,

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<v Speaker 2>The official line from the White House Communications Office and

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<v Speaker 2>from the President himself is he left this summit to

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<v Speaker 2>go back and deal with the issues in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 2>You and I both know that there's a level of

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<v Speaker 2>discomfort that comes with him being on the road and

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<v Speaker 2>making trips like this, and on top of that, there's

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<v Speaker 2>this kind of historical displeasure that he has with sitting

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<v Speaker 2>in a room of other world leaders and going through

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<v Speaker 2>these various working groups and plenary sessions and all of that.

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<v Speaker 2>At this point, are we confident that the rational that

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<v Speaker 2>the White House is siting here is in fact why

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump left the summit early, that it does have

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<v Speaker 2>to do with the Middle East and nothing more, or

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<v Speaker 2>is there something else at play here?

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<v Speaker 1>I am not at all confident that it really has

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<v Speaker 1>to do with the Middle East. I mean, yes, there

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<v Speaker 1>is a lot going on in the Middle East, and

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<v Speaker 1>you could make a very persuasive argument that the president

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to be back in Washington with all of the

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<v Speaker 1>assets and resources and advisors available to him that he

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't have out in a mountain resort in Canada. However,

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<v Speaker 1>there are a few caveats to that. One is today

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<v Speaker 1>was going to be all about Ukraine. And when we

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<v Speaker 1>had been looking at this schedule ahead of this summit,

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<v Speaker 1>there was a big question about whether Trump was going

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<v Speaker 1>to come in the first place. And then we were

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<v Speaker 1>looking at this schedule and it's like, Wow, he's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be here for two days. The first day is

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<v Speaker 1>all about the economy and trade and things like that.

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<v Speaker 1>The second day he's going to be sitting in a

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<v Speaker 1>room with President Vladimir Zelenski and other world leaders who

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<v Speaker 1>are essentially going to try to browbeat him to get

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<v Speaker 1>on board with more sanctions for Russia, lowering the price

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<v Speaker 1>cap on the exports of Russian oil, potential new support

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<v Speaker 1>for Voladimir Zelenski. And the question we all had was

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<v Speaker 1>is he really going to be willing to endure this.

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<v Speaker 1>It's eight hours out here talking of about Ukraine. That's

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<v Speaker 1>just not something he wants to do or subject himself to.

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<v Speaker 1>The Other issue, is we started to see these signs

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<v Speaker 1>yesterday where he just looked a little bit uncomfortable. He

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<v Speaker 1>did not seem to be particularly sort of at ease

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<v Speaker 1>or relaxed. So it was shocking that he decided to

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<v Speaker 1>pull out of this meeting, But I wouldn't say it

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<v Speaker 1>was necessarily surprising, Nick.

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<v Speaker 2>I think of President Zelenski, who, like so many of

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<v Speaker 2>these world leaders, both in the G seven, is invited

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<v Speaker 2>guests of the G seven, really traveled far to be

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<v Speaker 2>here in this remote corner of Canada. How disappointing is

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<v Speaker 2>it for him not to have President Trump here.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sure someone like Voladimir Zelensky is disappointed not to

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<v Speaker 1>have that one on one meeting with President Donald Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>as are the others, because US support is so crucial

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<v Speaker 1>for the Ukraine conflict. On the other hand, I sort

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<v Speaker 1>of have to imagine that maybe there's a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of relief. I mean, now you have a situation up

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<v Speaker 1>in Kananascus where it really is a meeting of like

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<v Speaker 1>minded actors. Everybody who is now there agrees on what

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<v Speaker 1>they think the path forward should be. You're not going

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<v Speaker 1>to have any more of this situation where everybody was

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<v Speaker 1>trying to humor President Trump or mollify him, or was

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<v Speaker 1>worried about a blow up. I mean they can kind

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<v Speaker 1>of get down to business on their own up there,

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<v Speaker 1>and there is this push happening in the background where

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<v Speaker 1>European leaders, I mean they have said openly, Canada has

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<v Speaker 1>said openly the old days are over. We have to

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<v Speaker 1>move on and look forward, and that means bolstering the

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<v Speaker 1>European security architecture with Canada, greater defense cooperation between those countries,

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<v Speaker 1>essentially not cutting the US out, but understanding that there's

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<v Speaker 1>a future where the US is a less reliable ally.

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<v Speaker 2>As I look at the pantheon of world leaders who

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<v Speaker 2>are here, there is Narendromodi, the Prime Minister of India,

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<v Speaker 2>There's Claudia Shinbaum of Mexico. They are all matter of worldly.

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<v Speaker 2>Er is here who expected that they would have the

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<v Speaker 2>opportunity to sit down on the sidelines with President Trump

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<v Speaker 2>and his economic advisors, many of whom came here with him,

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<v Speaker 2>the Treasury Secretary of the US Trade Representative, to talk

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<v Speaker 2>about the prospects for their being trade deals or frameworks

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<v Speaker 2>for deals. What happens to all of that now, and

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<v Speaker 2>as we look ahead to this July ninth, deadline by

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<v Speaker 2>which that pause that the President put in place is

0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:23.000
<v Speaker 2>scheduled to be lifted. How big of a detriment is

0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:26.280
<v Speaker 2>it not having this opportunity in this resort town in

0:12:26.360 --> 0:12:28.760
<v Speaker 2>western Canada to try to get down to brass tacks

0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:30.040
<v Speaker 2>with the President to find a solution.

0:12:30.280 --> 0:12:34.480
<v Speaker 1>I think it's difficult to overstate how severely disappointed they

0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:37.440
<v Speaker 1>are going to be to not have that conversation, because

0:12:37.480 --> 0:12:41.160
<v Speaker 1>everything we have seen in the last couple months when

0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:44.240
<v Speaker 1>you talk about the tariff discussions and new trade deals,

0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:48.000
<v Speaker 1>are that you cannot do this with anybody but the President,

0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:50.360
<v Speaker 1>and it doesn't matter how many hours you spend in

0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:54.920
<v Speaker 1>negotiation with his trade representative or his Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnik,

0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:57.760
<v Speaker 1>because he can just blow all that up with a tweet.

0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:02.200
<v Speaker 1>So there really is this sense of seeking a personal

0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:05.440
<v Speaker 1>dynamic directly with the President as a way to hash

0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:07.760
<v Speaker 1>out these things. I mean, I think from the outside,

0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:09.680
<v Speaker 1>a lot of folks had this notion that, Okay, you

0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:14.240
<v Speaker 1>have these trade negotiators in conversation for hours and hours

0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:17.800
<v Speaker 1>and they're ruling talks, debating every comma and paragraph point

0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:19.960
<v Speaker 1>things like that. But no, I mean, these really have

0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:23.360
<v Speaker 1>to be settled in one on one conversations with the president.

0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:25.800
<v Speaker 2>You talked about. Now, with President Trump being gone from

0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:28.440
<v Speaker 2>this summit, a lot of like minded actors able to

0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:30.040
<v Speaker 2>get down to business in a way they might not

0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:32.000
<v Speaker 2>have been able to if President Trump had been here.

0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:34.880
<v Speaker 2>But President Trump leads the world's largest economy. He's an

0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:38.000
<v Speaker 2>incredibly important figure. And I wonder if you think you

0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:41.800
<v Speaker 2>can have a successful G seven summit without the participation

0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:43.800
<v Speaker 2>of the United States, is it even possible? And what

0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:45.760
<v Speaker 2>does it say just about the strength or integrity of

0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:47.040
<v Speaker 2>this group going forward?

0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:52.079
<v Speaker 1>Well, I think having covered a lot of these summits

0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:55.920
<v Speaker 1>in the past when things were working well, you did

0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:59.559
<v Speaker 1>have call it almost a slightly Trumpian view of like,

0:13:59.840 --> 0:14:02.280
<v Speaker 1>what is the point of what we're doing here? All

0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:06.480
<v Speaker 1>these leaders come together, they issue a thirty page communicate

0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:10.800
<v Speaker 1>that talks about the need to fight climate change and

0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:14.400
<v Speaker 1>the need to work together to counter China, and you know,

0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:16.800
<v Speaker 1>whatever it might be, and you think, well, what did

0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:20.080
<v Speaker 1>that all amount to? Trump has in some ways sort

0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:22.760
<v Speaker 1>of exposed that a lot of this is theater, a

0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:25.520
<v Speaker 1>lot of it doesn't really amount to much, And it

0:14:25.600 --> 0:14:28.080
<v Speaker 1>does pose a big question going forward, because no, the

0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:31.680
<v Speaker 1>G seven simply cannot exist without the presence of the

0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:33.800
<v Speaker 1>world's biggest economy, of the US. If the US is

0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:36.400
<v Speaker 1>not willing to play ball. You know, the one hope

0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:39.400
<v Speaker 1>I think folks have for this is leaders come and go. Okay,

0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:43.720
<v Speaker 1>So President Trump may not be participating this time, but

0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:45.840
<v Speaker 1>there are still a lot of folks in the Republican

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:48.920
<v Speaker 1>Party who believe that these kind of institutions do have merit.

0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:51.200
<v Speaker 1>It's not going to be that long in the general

0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:54.560
<v Speaker 1>scheme of thing until President Trump departs the scene. G

0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:57.080
<v Speaker 1>seven has been around for fifty years. We're in a

0:14:57.080 --> 0:15:00.000
<v Speaker 1>bad patch now, and maybe things will come back around

0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:02.120
<v Speaker 1>later on once he leaves.

0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:07.240
<v Speaker 2>This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gurra.

0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:10.320
<v Speaker 2>To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access

0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:13.720
<v Speaker 2>to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg

0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:17.400
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0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:19.560
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0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:22.000
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0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:24.400
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.