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Speaker 1: Boo Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: President Trump was in Alberta, Canada this week in the

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Speaker 2: resort town of Kananaskis for a meeting of the Group

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Speaker 2: of Seven. He was scheduled to meet with other world

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Speaker 2: leaders over two days, but on Monday afternoon, the White

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Speaker 2: House announced Trump's plans to leave early right after dinner.

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Speaker 2: I'm in Alberta reporting on the G seven with a

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Speaker 2: team of Bloomberg colleagues from all over the world, including

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Speaker 2: Nick Wadhams, who oversees our coverage of diplomacy and national security,

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Speaker 2: and Nick told me to him at least Trump's decision

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Speaker 2: to head home early was not a total surprise.

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Speaker 1: There had been these hints throughout the day if you

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Speaker 1: had been looking for them.

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Speaker 2: Something Nick and I have been following is how the

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Speaker 2: conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran has

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Speaker 2: upended the agenda at this summit.

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Speaker 1: The President, at brief Q and A with Caer Starmer

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Speaker 1: had said, you know, he had a lot to get

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Speaker 1: back to this I think go on basically is at

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Speaker 1: the negotiating table, they want to make a deal, and

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Speaker 1: as soon as I leave you we're going to be

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Speaker 1: doing something, but I have to leave you. I have,

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Speaker 1: you know, this commitment. I have a lot of commitments.

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Speaker 1: We kept foreshadowing that something big was going to happen

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Speaker 1: on Iran, and of course he had also sent this

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Speaker 1: tweet essentially saying, you know, everybody needs to evacuate Tehran.

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Speaker 1: So that then created a lot of anxiety that, okay,

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Speaker 1: the US is essentially on the cusp of being pulled

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Speaker 1: into the Iran conflicts.

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Speaker 2: Before Trump boarded Air Force one to head back to Washington,

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Speaker 2: he joined the other G seven leaders for an official

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Speaker 2: photograph and he responded to a few questions from reporters.

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Speaker 1: It's really nice. I wish I could stay for tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: But did they understand this big stuff?

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Speaker 1: Questions for anybody else?

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Speaker 2: And then after dinner, Trump was gone, to the frustration

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Speaker 2: of some of the other participants, many of whom hoped

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Speaker 2: to hammer out trade deals with the US President. Vladimir

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Speaker 2: Zelenski came here to make the case for more aid.

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Speaker 1: You had had a lot of leaders who essentially flew

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Speaker 1: to Alberta basically just to see Donald Trump. I'm thinking

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Speaker 1: chiefly of the Mexican president Claudie Schanbaum, who actually flew

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Speaker 1: commercially from Mexico City to meet President Trump, and she

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Speaker 1: had not met him yet in his term, and she

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Speaker 1: didn't get that meeting.

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Speaker 2: Historically, G seven summits have been forums for deal making

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Speaker 2: and diplomacy, and the US has played a big role.

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Speaker 2: President Trump could have used this one. Nick told me

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Speaker 2: to rally US allies to express support for Israel and

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Speaker 2: to put more pressure on Iran.

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Speaker 1: The G seven would be a tool the President would use. Now,

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Speaker 1: this president clearly sees the G seven almost as a

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Speaker 1: hindrance to his policies, where he sees it essentially is

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Speaker 1: standing in the way of his desire to get what

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Speaker 1: he wants out of the Midias conflict.

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Speaker 2: On Tuesday, back in Washington, President Trump posted on social

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Speaker 2: media a call for Iran's quote unconditional surrender, and in

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Speaker 2: another post, he praised the United States' military capabilities, raising

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Speaker 2: more questions about what comes next. I'm David Gera here

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Speaker 2: on the sidelines of the G seven Leader summit in Alberta, Canada,

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Speaker 2: and this is the big take from Bloomberg News Today

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Speaker 2: on the show. Why did President Trump decide to leave

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Speaker 2: here early? What did it have to do, if anything,

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Speaker 2: with the US role in the conflict between Israel and Iran,

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Speaker 2: and what does it leave hanging in the balance? Nick

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Speaker 2: Shortly after the President left, he told reporters that he

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Speaker 2: was leaving to negotiate a real end to this conflict

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Speaker 2: in the Middle East, that he wasn't about trying to

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Speaker 2: find a short term ceasefire or a temporary ceasefire. On

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Speaker 2: the other hand, their speculation maybe he left because he

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Speaker 2: wanted to get the US more engaged militarily in this conflict,

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Speaker 2: and we saw some administration officials pushing back on that.

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Speaker 2: What's the latest best thinking about what the White House

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Speaker 2: approach to this conflict is going to be now that

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Speaker 2: the President is back in Washington, DC.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think what you're seeing here is a White

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Speaker 1: House that is still very much grappling with this decision.

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Speaker 1: So the President, it seems, essentially has two options. One

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Speaker 1: is the US gets involved and contributes the bunker busting

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Speaker 1: bombs that it has in its arsenal. The President, I

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Speaker 1: think is deciding between that on the one hand, and

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Speaker 1: also he has a notion that it is possible to

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Speaker 1: achieve a sort of grand diplomatic solution. I think he

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Speaker 1: does believe that if Israel and potentially the US push

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Speaker 1: hard enough, squeeze Iran hard enough, both militarily and through

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Speaker 1: sanctions and through other economic pressure, that Iran will essentially

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Speaker 1: capitulate and agree to a broader deal that potentially giving

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Speaker 1: up its nuclear program entirely. Of course, there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of debate about that. I mean, diplomacy at the point

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Speaker 1: of a gun has its skeptics, because what, Okay, you

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Speaker 1: get Iran to agree to something, Well, then what happens next.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's look at each of those tracks one by one,

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Speaker 2: and I'll start with the diplomatic one. Israel's initial attack

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Speaker 2: on Iran took place just a couple of days before

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Speaker 2: there were supposed to be talks in Aman, the sixth

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Speaker 2: round of talks on denuclearization on Iran's nuclear program. Given

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Speaker 2: all that's happened, is Iran eager or willing, I should say,

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Speaker 2: to come to the table once again.

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Speaker 1: Well, it's a great question, because Iranian officials have essentially

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Speaker 1: left the door open to talks, which is pretty extraordinary.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they are currently in a open, hot conflict

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Speaker 1: with Israel, and they are saying, listen, we have never

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Speaker 1: closed the door to negotiations. We are willing to continue

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Speaker 1: to talk.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: The big question, though, is a thing that the two

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Speaker 1: sides have never been able to resolve, which is, on

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Speaker 1: the one hand, you have the US saying Iran, you

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Speaker 1: should not be allowed to enrich uranium. Any deal that

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Speaker 1: we agree to would essentially take enrichment off off the table.

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Speaker 1: You cannot produce the material that would go into a

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Speaker 1: nuclear power plan or a nuclear bomb. Iran says, no,

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Speaker 1: that is the one thing we really want more than

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Speaker 1: anything else. We want to have the right to enrich.

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Speaker 1: The two sides have never figured out how to breach

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Speaker 1: that fundamental sticking point, and there is still no evidence

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Speaker 1: that they're anywhere closer.

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Speaker 2: So that's the diplomatic path, pivoting to the potential military one.

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Speaker 2: What are the long term considerations that the president is

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Speaker 2: considering here. It sounds like there's a lot of internal

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Speaker 2: politics at play here between sort of the Trump part

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Speaker 2: of the Republican Party and the kind of hawkish toward

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Speaker 2: Iran part of the Republican Party as well.

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Speaker 1: Right having covered wars in the Middle East for a

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Speaker 1: long time, you tend to see certain patterns that develop,

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Speaker 1: and right now, the conversation that's happening in Washington at least,

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Speaker 1: is this notion that the President's going to send a

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Speaker 1: B two bomber over to Iran. It's going to drop

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Speaker 1: a couple of these thirty thousand pound bombs and then

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Speaker 1: problem solved. So there's a real fixation on this idea

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Speaker 1: that by getting involved, the US can essentially destroy Iran's

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Speaker 1: nuclear program once and for all with a single military strike.

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Speaker 1: A lot of the President's critics, both within the Republican

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Speaker 1: Party and among Democrats, are saying, wait a minute, have

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Speaker 1: we not learned the lessons of twenty years of war

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Speaker 1: in Afghanistan and Iraq and elsewhere. The solution is never

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Speaker 1: so simple. What if we discover that Iran has hidden

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Speaker 1: nuclear sites where it's conducting some of this enrichment activity

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Speaker 1: and secret What if a strike doesn't work, What if

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Speaker 1: Iran then attacks US bases elsewhere in Iraq or in

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Speaker 1: the UAE or in cutter and then the US has

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Speaker 1: to respond militarily, as President Trump is threatened to do

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Speaker 1: if US forces are attacked. So you have this notion

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Speaker 1: that there is a very simple solution here, But then

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Speaker 1: there are a lot of critics who say, listen, you

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Speaker 1: start down this road. It is just going to pull

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Speaker 1: the US even deeper into exactly the type of war

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Speaker 1: that President Trump has said he wants to avoid.

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Speaker 2: As Day two of the G seven unfolds, it's clear

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Speaker 2: the President may have had other reasons for returning to

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Speaker 2: the White House early. We'll get into those after the break. Nick,

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Speaker 2: The official line from the White House Communications Office and

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Speaker 2: from the President himself is he left this summit to

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Speaker 2: go back and deal with the issues in the Middle East.

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Speaker 2: You and I both know that there's a level of

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Speaker 2: discomfort that comes with him being on the road and

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Speaker 2: making trips like this, and on top of that, there's

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Speaker 2: this kind of historical displeasure that he has with sitting

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Speaker 2: in a room of other world leaders and going through

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Speaker 2: these various working groups and plenary sessions and all of that.

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Speaker 2: At this point, are we confident that the rational that

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Speaker 2: the White House is siting here is in fact why

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Speaker 2: President Trump left the summit early, that it does have

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Speaker 2: to do with the Middle East and nothing more, or

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Speaker 2: is there something else at play here?

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Speaker 1: I am not at all confident that it really has

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Speaker 1: to do with the Middle East. I mean, yes, there

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Speaker 1: is a lot going on in the Middle East, and

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Speaker 1: you could make a very persuasive argument that the president

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Speaker 1: wanted to be back in Washington with all of the

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Speaker 1: assets and resources and advisors available to him that he

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Speaker 1: doesn't have out in a mountain resort in Canada. However,

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Speaker 1: there are a few caveats to that. One is today

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Speaker 1: was going to be all about Ukraine. And when we

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Speaker 1: had been looking at this schedule ahead of this summit,

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Speaker 1: there was a big question about whether Trump was going

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Speaker 1: to come in the first place. And then we were

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Speaker 1: looking at this schedule and it's like, Wow, he's going

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Speaker 1: to be here for two days. The first day is

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Speaker 1: all about the economy and trade and things like that.

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Speaker 1: The second day he's going to be sitting in a

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Speaker 1: room with President Vladimir Zelenski and other world leaders who

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Speaker 1: are essentially going to try to browbeat him to get

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Speaker 1: on board with more sanctions for Russia, lowering the price

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Speaker 1: cap on the exports of Russian oil, potential new support

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Speaker 1: for Voladimir Zelenski. And the question we all had was

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Speaker 1: is he really going to be willing to endure this.

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Speaker 1: It's eight hours out here talking of about Ukraine. That's

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Speaker 1: just not something he wants to do or subject himself to.

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Speaker 1: The Other issue, is we started to see these signs

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Speaker 1: yesterday where he just looked a little bit uncomfortable. He

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Speaker 1: did not seem to be particularly sort of at ease

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Speaker 1: or relaxed. So it was shocking that he decided to

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Speaker 1: pull out of this meeting, But I wouldn't say it

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Speaker 1: was necessarily surprising, Nick.

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Speaker 2: I think of President Zelenski, who, like so many of

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Speaker 2: these world leaders, both in the G seven, is invited

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Speaker 2: guests of the G seven, really traveled far to be

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Speaker 2: here in this remote corner of Canada. How disappointing is

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Speaker 2: it for him not to have President Trump here.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure someone like Voladimir Zelensky is disappointed not to

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Speaker 1: have that one on one meeting with President Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: as are the others, because US support is so crucial

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Speaker 1: for the Ukraine conflict. On the other hand, I sort

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Speaker 1: of have to imagine that maybe there's a little bit

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Speaker 1: of relief. I mean, now you have a situation up

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Speaker 1: in Kananascus where it really is a meeting of like

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Speaker 1: minded actors. Everybody who is now there agrees on what

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Speaker 1: they think the path forward should be. You're not going

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Speaker 1: to have any more of this situation where everybody was

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Speaker 1: trying to humor President Trump or mollify him, or was

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Speaker 1: worried about a blow up. I mean they can kind

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Speaker 1: of get down to business on their own up there,

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Speaker 1: and there is this push happening in the background where

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Speaker 1: European leaders, I mean they have said openly, Canada has

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Speaker 1: said openly the old days are over. We have to

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Speaker 1: move on and look forward, and that means bolstering the

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Speaker 1: European security architecture with Canada, greater defense cooperation between those countries,

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Speaker 1: essentially not cutting the US out, but understanding that there's

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Speaker 1: a future where the US is a less reliable ally.

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Speaker 2: As I look at the pantheon of world leaders who

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Speaker 2: are here, there is Narendromodi, the Prime Minister of India,

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Speaker 2: There's Claudia Shinbaum of Mexico. They are all matter of worldly.

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Speaker 2: Er is here who expected that they would have the

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Speaker 2: opportunity to sit down on the sidelines with President Trump

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Speaker 2: and his economic advisors, many of whom came here with him,

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Speaker 2: the Treasury Secretary of the US Trade Representative, to talk

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Speaker 2: about the prospects for their being trade deals or frameworks

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Speaker 2: for deals. What happens to all of that now, and

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Speaker 2: as we look ahead to this July ninth, deadline by

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Speaker 2: which that pause that the President put in place is

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Speaker 2: scheduled to be lifted. How big of a detriment is

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Speaker 2: it not having this opportunity in this resort town in

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Speaker 2: western Canada to try to get down to brass tacks

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Speaker 2: with the President to find a solution.

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Speaker 1: I think it's difficult to overstate how severely disappointed they

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Speaker 1: are going to be to not have that conversation, because

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Speaker 1: everything we have seen in the last couple months when

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Speaker 1: you talk about the tariff discussions and new trade deals,

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Speaker 1: are that you cannot do this with anybody but the President,

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Speaker 1: and it doesn't matter how many hours you spend in

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Speaker 1: negotiation with his trade representative or his Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnik,

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Speaker 1: because he can just blow all that up with a tweet.

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Speaker 1: So there really is this sense of seeking a personal

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Speaker 1: dynamic directly with the President as a way to hash

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Speaker 1: out these things. I mean, I think from the outside,

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Speaker 1: a lot of folks had this notion that, Okay, you

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Speaker 1: have these trade negotiators in conversation for hours and hours

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Speaker 1: and they're ruling talks, debating every comma and paragraph point

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Speaker 1: things like that. But no, I mean, these really have

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Speaker 1: to be settled in one on one conversations with the president.

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Speaker 2: You talked about. Now, with President Trump being gone from

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Speaker 2: this summit, a lot of like minded actors able to

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Speaker 2: get down to business in a way they might not

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Speaker 2: have been able to if President Trump had been here.

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Speaker 2: But President Trump leads the world's largest economy. He's an

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Speaker 2: incredibly important figure. And I wonder if you think you

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Speaker 2: can have a successful G seven summit without the participation

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Speaker 2: of the United States, is it even possible? And what

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Speaker 2: does it say just about the strength or integrity of

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Speaker 2: this group going forward?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think having covered a lot of these summits

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Speaker 1: in the past when things were working well, you did

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Speaker 1: have call it almost a slightly Trumpian view of like,

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Speaker 1: what is the point of what we're doing here? All

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Speaker 1: these leaders come together, they issue a thirty page communicate

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Speaker 1: that talks about the need to fight climate change and

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Speaker 1: the need to work together to counter China, and you know,

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Speaker 1: whatever it might be, and you think, well, what did

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Speaker 1: that all amount to? Trump has in some ways sort

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Speaker 1: of exposed that a lot of this is theater, a

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Speaker 1: lot of it doesn't really amount to much, And it

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Speaker 1: does pose a big question going forward, because no, the

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Speaker 1: G seven simply cannot exist without the presence of the

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Speaker 1: world's biggest economy, of the US. If the US is

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Speaker 1: not willing to play ball. You know, the one hope

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Speaker 1: I think folks have for this is leaders come and go. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So President Trump may not be participating this time, but

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Speaker 1: there are still a lot of folks in the Republican

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Speaker 1: Party who believe that these kind of institutions do have merit.

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Speaker 1: It's not going to be that long in the general

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Speaker 1: scheme of thing until President Trump departs the scene. G

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Speaker 1: seven has been around for fifty years. We're in a

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Speaker 1: bad patch now, and maybe things will come back around

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Speaker 1: later on once he leaves.

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Speaker 2: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gurra.

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