1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:02,800 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. 2 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 2: Do us proud read a lot? They're all for running 3 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 2: a game. 4 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 1: So smoothe so sweet? 5 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 2: Sid sisting just glorious text proturition. 6 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,120 Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four 7 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time. How shot with that shop 8 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: of mind? 9 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 3: Good buddy, and that's why you see your beautiful tiers. 10 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet. 11 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 2: Nobody pics them. 12 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 1: God shut up, I'm trying the one it's left to 13 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 1: of the wide eyed drill pibus how old earth pick 14 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: that happens? Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wondergol, the 15 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 1: soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. My name is 16 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 1: Michael E. Buff Joining me today is my colleague and 17 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 1: friend Andy Dubundo. BJ Cunningham is still out on paternity leave, Anthony. 18 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: Let's start this midweek Premier League slate. It's a huge one. 19 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:12,680 Speaker 1: We have two relegation battles, a top four must win 20 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 1: a title race game, and then we've got you know 21 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 1: less service Chelsea sprinkled in there too. We'll start with 22 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 1: Newcastle and Arsenal on Monday, though. Let's set this one 23 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:23,679 Speaker 1: up Newcastle has nothing to play for it. They're at 24 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 1: home plus three forty, Arsenal on the road minus one 25 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:29,320 Speaker 1: twenty five favorites the draw plus two ninety five. Here's 26 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 1: how this sets up for Arsenal. They're trailing Spurs by 27 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: two points in the race for top four. Arsenal's at 28 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: sixty six points with a game in hand, that is 29 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 1: this game against Newcastle, Spurs sixty eight points, and they 30 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:44,040 Speaker 1: have nord City in their final match. Arsenal has Everton. 31 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 1: I do think if I had to pick here, I 32 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 1: think Newcastle will end up being the value side, just 33 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 1: because you're going to be paying a premium to bet 34 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 1: Arsenal in a must win situation. We've talked about this 35 00:01:54,360 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: and nauseum down the stretch here that bookmakers will overcompensate 36 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 1: for teams like Arsenal where they're in a must one situation, 37 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 1: especially against teams that are on the beach like Newcastle. 38 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 1: So I'm looking towards Newcastle here. I'll probably bet them, 39 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: I think, maybe for the second time all season. But 40 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:12,919 Speaker 1: it's not one that I would say the numbers will 41 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: really show you. The matchup numbers I should say will 42 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:17,959 Speaker 1: really show value, but just the Price will. 43 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I'd hope we get a little more 44 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 3: Arsenal steam than we have once Spurs one on Sunday 45 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 3: and once Spurs won the derby on Thursday, which you know. 46 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:30,519 Speaker 3: I'll save the gloating for when BJ comes back, but 47 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 3: he will be hearing from me on this podcast, hopefully 48 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 3: before the end of the season, and I will mention 49 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:36,799 Speaker 3: the derby, especially if we get top four. 50 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 2: It was a glorious day to be. 51 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 3: A fan of Tottenham, but the market is still pretty 52 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:43,239 Speaker 3: much in line with where I am. I have Arsenal 53 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 3: minus one fifteen. I'm definitely not playing Arsenal here. I 54 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:47,639 Speaker 3: agree with you on that if I had to play it, 55 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 3: it would probably be Newcastle, and I also probably lean 56 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 3: a little toward the under because I'm still not quite 57 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 3: buying this Arsenal attack when they haven't been gifted chances, 58 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 3: they haven't created a ton and relying on edite N 59 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:02,079 Speaker 3: Ketti to continue his good run of form given his history, 60 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 3: just seems like a bet. 61 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:04,079 Speaker 2: That I'm not willing to make. 62 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:06,399 Speaker 3: And so if you're taking Kettia's shots out of this team, 63 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 3: you're just not left with a ton. It's a lot 64 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 3: of reliance on Martinelli and Sokka, who our players I'm 65 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 3: particularly high on, but again there are some defensive question 66 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 3: marks as well. For Arsenal, Rob Holding is suspended for 67 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 3: this match. We don't know if Gabrielle is going to 68 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 3: be able to make it. Our Teta did not seem confident. 69 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:25,240 Speaker 3: He said tomorrow will be the day we have better answers. 70 00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:28,639 Speaker 3: He said that today, so Monday we'll know, and that 71 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:30,519 Speaker 3: doesn't make me feel great about a Monday night match. 72 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 3: And Newcastle defensively, like the main reason they had their 73 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 3: good run was because they weren't conceding any goals. They 74 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 3: were pretty fortunate at one point one goals ecul be 75 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 3: one point oh one goals conceded from one point three 76 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 3: expected allowed, so they ran pretty well defensively to get 77 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 3: the results they were getting, squeaking out a lot of 78 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 3: one nail type wins to one type wins. They have 79 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 3: been pressuring better. I think a lot of that has 80 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 3: to do with Joe Linton coming into midfield, so that 81 00:03:57,600 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 3: gives me some hope that they can kind of disrupt 82 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 3: what are someone wants to do and they were third 83 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 3: lowest in passes per defensive action in the first half 84 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 3: now they're eleventh in the league, so they've made a 85 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 3: pretty considerable improvement there. But yeah, I'm probably gonna end 86 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 3: up passing here and rooting for the Magpies to get 87 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:17,479 Speaker 3: a result and get Spurs in the driver's seat. 88 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 1: That's a three pm kickoff on Monday. Well, now fast 89 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: forward to Tuesday, three pm kickoff excuse me, two forty 90 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 1: five pm kickoff Eastern Time between Southampton plus six to 91 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 1: fifty at home hosting Liverpool minus two forty five. The 92 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 1: draw here is plus four to twenty five. It did 93 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: look like the title race was basically over last week. 94 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 1: Then City had a minor slip up, I mean a 95 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: major slip up by just getting a draw against West 96 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:45,839 Speaker 1: Ham over the weekend. So the door is slightly cracked 97 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: open here for Liverpool. They must win at Southampton to 98 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 1: get to keep the pressure on City heading into the 99 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 1: last weekend. City's minus one thousand to win the title. 100 00:04:55,480 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: Liverpool plus six fifty Liverpool's eighty six points, City ninety points. 101 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:01,840 Speaker 1: It's going to be really tough for Liverpool to make 102 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 1: up the gold differential. However, if there is a team 103 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 1: to do it against, it would be Saints, right, Like 104 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:08,280 Speaker 1: we've seen this team lose nine to nothing two years 105 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 1: on the bounce. We've seen them just ship goals in 106 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 1: some games. So I wouldn't say that the gold differential 107 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 1: is completely out of range for Liverpool, but they would 108 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: need something extraordinary here that makes me think that an 109 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,360 Speaker 1: alt total could be in play, just because of the 110 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:26,719 Speaker 1: way that these teams both want to play Saints. Saints 111 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:29,719 Speaker 1: have just not been good for a while, basically since 112 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 1: they clinched their safety, which did actually look a little 113 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 1: dubious for a couple of days here, as they've been 114 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 1: stuck on forty points for a while. And then you 115 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:39,039 Speaker 1: got to Liverpool fatigue factor, which we've talked about one 116 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:41,159 Speaker 1: hundred times, and they just played the FA Cup final 117 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:43,919 Speaker 1: which went one hundred and twenty minutes on Saturday they 118 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: won on penalties against Chelsea. So there's a lot of 119 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:48,839 Speaker 1: different balls in the air here. I think the number 120 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 1: on Saints is way too short plus six to fifty 121 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 1: on the threeway money line. I was hoping to get 122 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 1: like nine to one not going to come, so I'm 123 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 1: going to be passing here. But I could see this 124 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 1: one just being six nothing or something, or Liverpool at 125 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:04,679 Speaker 1: least carrying the over by themselves. 126 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know what you said about the matchup is interesting. 127 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 3: Liverpool and Saints are first and second and high turnovers 128 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 3: forced per match, so they're both very good at forcing 129 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 3: those turnovers and that's you know, from the pressing styles 130 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 3: that Hassen, Hudo and Klop are notorious for. 131 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 2: I'm not sure how much goal difference. 132 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 3: Really matters here, because if you think about it, it 133 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 3: pretty much comes down to either City drop points this 134 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 3: weekend and Liverpool can win out and win the title, 135 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:30,840 Speaker 3: or City wins this weekend and Liverpool can't really win 136 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 3: the title. It would have been a little different if 137 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 3: City had lost today because then they're tied on points 138 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 3: and goal difference decides it in theory, but now it's 139 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 3: not really the case. So I'm not sure that they're 140 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 3: going to run up the score and I'm not sure 141 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 3: they're capable of it. I mean, they looked dead and 142 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:48,480 Speaker 3: you saw it kind of on Van Dyke's face after 143 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 3: the ninety minutes against Chelsea. That was a very physical match. 144 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 3: Saints did not play. They also didn't play in the 145 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 3: midweek last week, so they've had some time off now, 146 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:00,840 Speaker 3: whereas Liverpool have been playing all these matches, and if 147 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 3: you look at Saints when they played some of the 148 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:06,040 Speaker 3: bigger sides. I know people will point to the five 149 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 3: nil drubbing or six niel rubing at Chelsea, but they 150 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 3: played pretty well defensively, and I think their attack has 151 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 3: really struggled. If you look at some of the numbers 152 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 3: they got a result against City in both matches, they 153 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 3: only created point four in the first meeting one in 154 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 3: the second meeting. They only created point four against Spurs 155 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 3: in the draw with them. They only created point six 156 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 3: non penalty in the first Chelsea game and then point 157 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 3: five in the second, so they weren't creating a lot 158 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 3: of the chances against these bigger sides. And I think 159 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 3: a lot of it comes down to the fact that 160 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 3: when you press against better teams, they're just not going 161 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 3: to give you the ball and give you as many 162 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 3: high turnovers. 163 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 2: Even in the win against Arsenal, I think it was 164 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 2: point seven XG. 165 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 3: So their attack has not been very effective when they 166 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 3: haven't been able to forceie turnovers and set pieces. They 167 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 3: don't get as many when they played the big team, 168 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 3: so you can't exploit the Ward Prowse hack, you know. 169 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 2: So I leaned tour I like the under here. 170 00:07:57,840 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 1: I should say I. 171 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 2: Played the under one twenty at three and a half. 172 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 3: I'm going to be a little contraying because I think 173 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 3: the narrative is going to be like everyone's going to 174 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 3: say Liverpools running up the score. I'm not sure they're 175 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 3: capable of it right now and they're on the road, 176 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 3: and so I think Saints will give a good effort here. 177 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 2: It is the last home match of the season. 178 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 3: You typically will see teams give a good go at 179 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 3: it and not quite be quite on you on holiday 180 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 3: as you see some. 181 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 2: Teams put in some dreadful performances. 182 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 3: So I do think we'll get Southampton's best effort chance 183 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 3: to spoil Liverpool's title. And like I said, their attack 184 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 3: just hasn't been great against the big sides, and I 185 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 3: don't think they're going to create a ton Liverpool probably 186 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 3: go for a more controlled victory type performance here. 187 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: I think Liverpool have Saints and on Tuesday than Wolverhampton 188 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 1: at home city four points ahead. Like I said, they 189 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 1: have aston Villa at home. So Steven Gerrard will try 190 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:52,439 Speaker 1: to get his club a title somehow from afar the 191 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 1: title he never won with them as a player. Thursday. 192 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 1: Now Everton they're even money against Crystal Palace at home. 193 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:01,079 Speaker 1: This is basically the same kind of thing we saw 194 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: against Brentford. Right, Palace plus two seventy five to draw 195 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 1: here is plus two fifty Everton off of three to 196 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:10,719 Speaker 1: two loss to Brentford in a game that featured not 197 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 1: one but two straight reds for the Toffees. I think 198 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 1: they were little unlucky with some some var stuff that 199 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 1: went against them which ended up leading to actually to 200 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 1: one of the red cards directly. Nonetheless, nonetheless it was 201 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:29,599 Speaker 1: you know, they came unspooled. So not the type of 202 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 1: performance you want to see. And now, of the three 203 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: teams fighting in the relegation battle, you'd rather be evident 204 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 1: right there at thirty six points with two games five, 205 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 1: they're thirty so there are not they are They're not 206 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 1: fine yet they have thirty six points with two games left. 207 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: Both of them are really tough games, right Crystal Palace 208 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:48,960 Speaker 1: is a really good team, and then they play away 209 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:52,319 Speaker 1: at Arsenal, so there'll be a big underdog on that one. 210 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:55,599 Speaker 1: Leeds they do have a tricky one against Brentford on 211 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:58,560 Speaker 1: the road, and then Burnley have Villa and Newcastle they 212 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: play Villain in the midweek and then Newcast so on 213 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 1: the weekend. I do think, you know, similarly to what 214 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 1: we said about the Brentford match, like this is this 215 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 1: match is just evidence is going to be inflated. If 216 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 1: you're gonna want to play Everden, you're gonna be playing 217 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: a band number. We're never gonna judge anyone for doing, 218 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:16,079 Speaker 1: you know, for betting whatever you want, but you're just 219 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,199 Speaker 1: gonna know going into it that you're betting into a 220 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 1: must win tax here. They also have some injury issues again. 221 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:24,960 Speaker 1: You know, they went a couple of weeks where they 222 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 1: they had a relatively strong side, but now Michael Keene 223 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:30,559 Speaker 1: missed out through illness. Your amina's heard again. So that's 224 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 1: already two center backs, a third center back Jared Branthwaite 225 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 1: picked up one of the red cards. That's three center 226 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: backs and Ben Godfrey four center backs. He's also doubtful 227 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 1: or at the very least questionable for this game. And 228 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 1: then Fabian delf Is, who's you know, their only strong 229 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:50,959 Speaker 1: defensive midfielder. Basically he's also injured. So it's just a 230 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 1: real real mess here. And this is what I'm saying, 231 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,839 Speaker 1: They're not fine because they drop points to Palace like 232 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:57,959 Speaker 1: there's a good chance they're gonna need to get a 233 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 1: result at Arsenal or else they'll need Brentford to do 234 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 1: them a favor of Brentford or Newcastle, and you know 235 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 1: that's just not what you want. So boy, like I said, 236 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:08,560 Speaker 1: I don't think there's much betting value on the match. 237 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:11,719 Speaker 1: I would just say that, like I said, pray for 238 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:14,559 Speaker 1: Everton because this is not done yet. 239 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 2: It's certainly not done. But again Lee's and Burnley both 240 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:21,199 Speaker 2: have to win one match or it's over. 241 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 3: So if Leeds don't beat Brentford, Everton will stay up. 242 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,199 Speaker 3: If Burnley don't win one of their last two matches, 243 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 3: Everton will stay up. If Everton gets any result, they 244 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:31,439 Speaker 3: will stay up. So a lot of things need to 245 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 3: go against Everton for them to be relegated. And that's 246 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 3: why they're plus seven to fifty to be relegated. I mean, 247 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:37,599 Speaker 3: the odds are that they're not going down. And you 248 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 3: look at it right now, Leeds are plus one eighty 249 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 3: five at Brentford. 250 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 2: Talk about attacks. 251 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 3: They were just plus one eighty five at home against Brighton. 252 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:48,959 Speaker 3: Now they're plus twenty five at Brentford. That's interesting. And 253 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 3: Arsenal are minus one ninety against Everton. So Everton's gonna 254 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 3: be catching a goal on Sunday. That'll be interesting. We'll 255 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 3: get into that on the Thursday pod. But for this match, 256 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 3: how do you got to play Palace? 257 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 1: Right? 258 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:03,439 Speaker 2: Like I'm playing Palace. I already played them. Put it 259 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 2: in the app Sunday morning. 260 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 3: Pretty much as soon as the second red card happened, 261 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:08,719 Speaker 3: I was like, okay, what are we doing here? Like 262 00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:10,840 Speaker 3: this clearly is going to be a big match. Everton's 263 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 3: still inflated, and they lost him and Ron Don and 264 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:16,200 Speaker 3: they may have lost Don the catlown. I didn't hear 265 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 3: a post match report on him, but he was hobbling 266 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:20,080 Speaker 3: around at the end of the match. You mentioned Fabian 267 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:23,160 Speaker 3: delf I thought he was pretty important when he was playing, 268 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:24,839 Speaker 3: and I thought he gave them some semblance of a 269 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 3: midfield that they didn't have today. Now they now you 270 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 3: have to be careful with today's game, because, to be honest, 271 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:33,679 Speaker 3: I was on the wrong side for the first twenty 272 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 3: minutes like that, Everton were playing well, they were dominating 273 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 3: the match. 274 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 2: They had scored a goal. 275 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 3: It was a little fluky, but like they scored a 276 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:42,679 Speaker 3: goal deserved to be ahead, and then the red card happens, 277 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:44,439 Speaker 3: and as a better like, I hate red cards because 278 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 3: they let us They ruin any kind of information we 279 00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 3: can take from a match, and so I pretty much 280 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 3: toss out most of that. The only thing interesting is 281 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 3: maybe the set piece defense being really bad, but Palace 282 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 3: is not going to really exploit that. With that being said, 283 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 3: I think Palace dominates the midfield here. That's what they've 284 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 3: done against the other mid table sides. They dominated the 285 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:05,440 Speaker 3: Villa today. They were the much better side in that match. 286 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 3: They controlled the play and their defense is just stellar. 287 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 3: So I don't see Everton breaking through here. Given their 288 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 3: injury situation, their midfield issues of ball winning are going 289 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 3: to be a major problem in transition defensively, so I 290 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 3: think Pallace has plenty of success here and gets a result. 291 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 3: And again, like we talked about this coming into Sunday, 292 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 3: like a draw is a good result for Everton. It is, 293 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:27,840 Speaker 3: and that gets them to that gets them. 294 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 2: Three points ahead of. 295 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:34,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, but that but Burnley can catch. I think Burnley 296 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 1: will catch them on goal difference if. 297 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 2: They win, so right, so I guess yes they could. 298 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 3: But again so raw, a draw puts them for sure 299 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:45,319 Speaker 3: would need just a draw on the final day to 300 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 3: stay up, and but a draw it's just not I 301 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 3: don't know, Like, of course they're going to be pushing 302 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:52,439 Speaker 3: for the winner, but it's more important for Everton not 303 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:53,679 Speaker 3: to lose than it is for them to win. 304 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:55,200 Speaker 2: In my opinion, I. 305 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:58,080 Speaker 1: Think if you switched Burnley and Leads, yes, I mean 306 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:00,599 Speaker 1: because Leads can can't catch them on goal differential, So 307 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 1: the fact that Burnley is the team that's kept that 308 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 1: if Everyton draws, that Burnley would be three points behind 309 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:10,839 Speaker 1: them kind of negates that. So they That's why I'm 310 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 1: a little more nervous than I was, like if if 311 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 1: Leeds hadn't picked up that that ninety second minute equalizer today, Yes, 312 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 1: a draw basically ensures safety, but now you need two 313 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 1: points from two games, one of them you'll be a 314 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 1: big underdog. So you got to do it at home 315 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: and just make that arsenal match a you know, a 316 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 1: victory lap. Maybe maybe everything will get a lap of 317 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 1: honor around the Emirates for for staying up. If if 318 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 1: if they do so, like you said, though, they are 319 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 1: plus six fifty as the lowest I saw Burnley plus 320 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 1: one sixty to go down leads minus one thirty five. 321 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 1: So that tells you that it's less, you know, more 322 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:49,280 Speaker 1: likely than not. That everything says that. 323 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm running against both Everton and Burnley on on 324 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 3: Thursday to set up a great Sunday. Sorry, but also 325 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 3: I bet on Palace. But I think you know, when 326 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 3: you look at it, go look around the leagues this weekend. 327 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 3: All these teams that were juiced up that needed to 328 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 3: win to avoid relegation. 329 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 2: Blah blah blah, didn't do that well. 330 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 3: I mean olave Ace was crazy overpriced, went to Levante 331 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 3: who was already relegated, lost to one. 332 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 2: Now they're done. Started to excuse me. 333 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 3: Santatia, the team I've been betting on a lot of 334 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 3: France this year, faded them. They were crazy overvalued against Reems, 335 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 3: lost at home to a team that had nothing to 336 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 3: play for. These teams are bad, and so don't assume, 337 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 3: don't buy into this motivation stuff, and don't assume that 338 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 3: a bad team is just going to become good because 339 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 3: it's convenient to do so at the end of the 340 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 3: season to get enough points. And remember that even the 341 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 3: Everton good performances were mostly even games against Chelsea and 342 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 3: Leicester where Pickford was really good and they got a 343 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 3: couple of bounces. 344 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 2: So I'm just and that was with Delf. Yeah, I 345 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 2: think he's been the biggest. I mean, I mean, I 346 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 2: think they're big losses, has no depths. So this is 347 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 2: why I give me the Palace boys. 348 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 1: This is why I'm saying that they're not they're not. Okay, 349 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 1: they're not safe, but they're fine. They're not fine. 350 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 2: Wins now, they're they're in traumones. I mean, they're they're 351 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 2: in trumble. 352 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 1: Okay, let's talk about that Burnley match. Villa plus one 353 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 1: oh five hosting Burnley plus two sixty five. The draw 354 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 1: here is plus to forty conspiracy theory if you want 355 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: stemn Girard tells his boys to lay down and let 356 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 1: Burnley win to try to relegate his rival Everton, and 357 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 1: then tries to get them up for the city match 358 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 1: to keep Liverpool's title hopes alive. So that's that's the 359 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 1: conspiracy theory. But let's not get too too deep into that. Yeah, 360 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:35,320 Speaker 1: I think if you look like this this match from 361 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 1: once again from betting perspective, I kind of like the 362 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 1: draw a little bit like I think Burnley, for example, 363 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 1: like they a draw is a good result for them 364 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 1: because that would tie them with leads on points and 365 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 1: Burnley has a far far superior goal differential, so one 366 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 1: point for Burnley is actually a massive, massive result. I 367 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 1: could see them playing for the nil nail here, like 368 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 1: going full Burnley park the bus. I guess a team 369 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 1: that isn't going to really create a lot offensively, so 370 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,879 Speaker 1: why not, right, Like, why not take that approach? Wouldn't 371 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 1: I wouldn't blame Mike Jackson for setting the team up 372 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:15,120 Speaker 1: incredibly conservatively on the road at Acid Villain, just putting 373 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 1: the honest on Villa to create, which they don't do 374 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:19,919 Speaker 1: all that well. So I actually think the draw here 375 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 1: plus two forty is well worth it. Yeah. 376 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 3: I certainly could see the argument there, and I see 377 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:26,399 Speaker 3: the angle, and I don't bet draws too often, but 378 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 3: this is one game where you're like, okay, it kind 379 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 3: of suits them to draw. And they did just play 380 00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 3: last week, which is kind of interesting. You don't get 381 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 3: that very often in the prem We've only had that 382 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:37,920 Speaker 3: one other time or two other times this year. Yeah, 383 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:40,160 Speaker 3: and Everden did it, Lester and Everton and then Chelsea 384 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 3: Brighton right way back in January I don't think a 385 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 3: ton changes from that game. You know, I leaned Villain 386 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:48,840 Speaker 3: that match. I thought the number wasn't showing enough respect to. 387 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 2: Villa for me to play it. 388 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 3: I still feel the same way because yeh, Spernley do on. 389 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:55,920 Speaker 3: We need a point and they defended pretty well today 390 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,440 Speaker 3: against Spurs. Why aren't they getting the bump in the 391 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 3: market that everybody else seems to be get all of 392 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 3: a sudden, Everton's gonna start playing better. All these other 393 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 3: European teams are going to buck up and you know, 394 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,359 Speaker 3: be overvalued, But Burnley hasn't seen that. I mean I 395 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 3: had them undervalue today against Spurs. They covered and deserve 396 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,399 Speaker 3: the cover I thought. And you go back to the 397 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 3: midweek again, not not being juiced up in the market 398 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:18,200 Speaker 3: at all when you look at their their numbers. So 399 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 3: it's certainly been interesting, but I'm overall I'm probably gonning 400 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 3: up passing here, although I don't hate the shot on 401 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 3: the draw because, like you said, Burnley, a draw is 402 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 3: a great result for Burnley here. Yeah, and Villa their 403 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 3: performance today suggests that they're kind of thinking about the beaches. 404 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:35,640 Speaker 2: That they were pretty flat today. 405 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:40,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, they're the perfect opponent I think in the entire league, 406 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 1: if you're looking for a draw, if in this situation. 407 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 2: Right, yeah, and I think I think you know, all 408 00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 2: their eggs are probably in Sunday. 409 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly spoil the title. 410 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 2: But I don't think they're I mean it's. 411 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:53,400 Speaker 1: At home too, like, so we're trying to like pick 412 00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 1: you know, motivational stuff and I mean whatever, it's part 413 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,439 Speaker 1: of what we do here, especially at this time of year. 414 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 1: But you know, it's at home, so they're not gonna 415 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 1: just like laid down and play out and nineteen record. 416 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:06,160 Speaker 3: I do show a tiny bit of value on bill. 417 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 3: I've got the minus one fifteen here, so like I 418 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:12,159 Speaker 3: do make them a favorite, but I'm not. 419 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 1: I'm not betting them. The other career League match in 420 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 1: the midweek is also on Thursday, Chelsea minus two sixty five. 421 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 1: I guess Leicester City eight to one. The draw here 422 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,320 Speaker 1: is plus three seventy. Talk about you know, I just 423 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,080 Speaker 1: said before talking about Newcastle. I don't think I bet 424 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,640 Speaker 1: on them really at all this season. I don't don't 425 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 1: really think I bet Lester maybe twice this entire year. 426 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:35,879 Speaker 1: I kind of like them eight to one. It's a 427 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 1: spot play. This is a team that they've been bad, 428 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:44,760 Speaker 1: They've been lucky. However, they're going to Chelsea to take 429 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,680 Speaker 1: on a team that just played an FA Cup final 430 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 1: and lost in a shootout. Two weeks prior to that, 431 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 1: they got or three weeks whatever it was prior to that, 432 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 1: they got eliminated from the Champions League in kind of 433 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:59,160 Speaker 1: heartbreaking fashion. So this is this is another team that's 434 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 1: just played a ton of SoC Their spot in third 435 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 1: places is completely secured, and they just there's nothing for 436 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 1: Chelsea to play for here. They got a couple of 437 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:11,160 Speaker 1: players who have already indicated that they'll be playing elsewhere 438 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,640 Speaker 1: next season. It's just it's just a sleepy, sleepy spot. 439 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 1: And I know it's at home, but this is one. 440 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:18,360 Speaker 1: This is a good one for Leicester. It's you're still 441 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 1: playing Chelsea. You're still playing the champions of Europe, the 442 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,159 Speaker 1: reigning champions of Europe. So this is one that I 443 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,239 Speaker 1: think that Leser will be up for. And at eight 444 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:27,440 Speaker 1: to one against a team that I think is in 445 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,640 Speaker 1: a terrible spot, is well worth. You know, I'll pay 446 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 1: eight to one to find out if Chelsea's up for 447 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 1: this one. 448 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm probably gonna end a passing here. I would 449 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:37,879 Speaker 3: actually lean toward Chelsea or the over if I had 450 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 3: to play it. I mean Lester today against Watford was 451 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:43,639 Speaker 3: they won five to one, but like look at the 452 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,119 Speaker 3: box score, they got fewer shots. The next year was 453 00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:50,280 Speaker 3: pretty much even conceded one point seven expected coals to Watford. 454 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 3: And we talked about Watford. I mean that team was 455 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,840 Speaker 3: really really bad. It was without Sar, without Dennis, So 456 00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,680 Speaker 3: a really bad Watford team who managed what was it 457 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,639 Speaker 3: six shots in the midweek against Everton looked like they 458 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 3: could have scored two or three today and so that's 459 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 3: a major red flag. And Lester, like, we can say 460 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 3: what we want about this team. They never have improved 461 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 3: at all defensively and Chelsea ran all over them in 462 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 3: the first meeting, and I just think it's a midfield mismatch. 463 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,280 Speaker 3: Lester's defense is not improved. And the issues that, let 464 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 3: you know, the goals that Lester scored today, a lot 465 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 3: of it came off of having way too much time 466 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:25,200 Speaker 3: on the ball in the midfield because Watford played a 467 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 3: pretty bad midfield. Guys who were not Premier League caliber 468 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 3: midfielders were being honest, no disrespect to Susoko besides him, 469 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,800 Speaker 3: and then was just letting vlready run in behind unchecked, 470 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 3: and I don't think that's going to happen against Chelsea. 471 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,400 Speaker 2: They do still need a result. If they were to lose. 472 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:45,719 Speaker 3: Spurs Arsenal win, they still haven't secured top four yet, 473 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 3: so you kind of I mean, you know, they're probably 474 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,479 Speaker 3: still going to get there. But I think both teams 475 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,159 Speaker 3: could open this game up and this could go back 476 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 3: and forth. The Chelsea defense continues to be very questionable. 477 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:02,239 Speaker 3: They benefited from not having to play an eleven man 478 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,520 Speaker 3: side when Leeds got another early red card, and then 479 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 3: they looked pretty vulnerable against Liverpool, and you worry about 480 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,159 Speaker 3: them being flat here. So I am passing, but if 481 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 3: I had to bet it, I would look toward the 482 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 3: over or towards Chelsea just because I'm not like Lester 483 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:17,879 Speaker 3: keeps getting a few results here and there to like 484 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 3: maintain this thing that they're like the eighth or ninth 485 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 3: best team in the league, but they're really not when 486 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:24,680 Speaker 3: you look at their underlying numbers, not even close. 487 00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you know, you and Beach, especially because 488 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 1: you modeled games like you're, you're never gonna find value 489 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,640 Speaker 1: on Lester. So, like I said, this is a completely 490 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 1: just a spot play with Chelsea. 491 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 3: I think he is even lower than I am because 492 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:39,960 Speaker 3: there was a couple of times I bet them, but 493 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,959 Speaker 3: even he maybe against Liverpool, I know I bet him 494 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 3: once twice against Liverpool and then trying to remember if 495 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:48,440 Speaker 3: there was any other spot not since early early in 496 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 3: the season before we realized they were bad. 497 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,639 Speaker 1: All right, let's let's wrap this up with before we 498 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:55,680 Speaker 1: get to our favorite bet for the midweek. We'll start 499 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 1: talk about the Europa League final on Wednesday between Frankfurt 500 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,040 Speaker 1: out of Germany and Rangers out of Scotland. Frankfort plus 501 00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 1: one thirty Rangers plus to ten to draw plus to forty. 502 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:07,640 Speaker 1: A reminder once again, if you're betting the three way 503 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,639 Speaker 1: money line and the teams go to extra time, the 504 00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:12,880 Speaker 1: draw wins. If you bet you know Rangers are Frankfort 505 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:14,440 Speaker 1: on the three way money line, you lose your bet. 506 00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:17,440 Speaker 1: I'll turn this one over to you. What do you 507 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 1: think here? Between what I mean? This is why the 508 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,879 Speaker 1: Europa League always cracks everybody up towards the end of 509 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 1: the year. Frankfort and rank Rangers. Man, who would have 510 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 1: saw this coming? 511 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,960 Speaker 2: I mean, it's not always this way, right like Seville. 512 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:33,479 Speaker 1: It's always Severe. It's always Severe Severe Spanish year exactly. 513 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:37,120 Speaker 1: It's usually a really good defensive Spanish side and then 514 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 1: either you know, whatever team Jose Marino Marinho is managing 515 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,119 Speaker 1: at the time is usually the opponent. 516 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:44,760 Speaker 2: I mean it's like the worst Europa League final on 517 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 2: a while though, Like. 518 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:47,639 Speaker 3: Yeah, I've been you say that, but like at the 519 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:52,320 Speaker 3: same time and United Vireal, Our, Arsenal, Chelsea, Marseille ad Latin, 520 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 3: those were decent teams. I acts United, Severe Liverpool. 521 00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 1: I mean it depends on what you say. 522 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:01,639 Speaker 3: You know, your definition of worse, right, Like these teams 523 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 3: are bad, but I'm tract is like ninth in Germany. 524 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:07,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, but some people would say that, like that's the 525 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,320 Speaker 1: beauty of tournament football is like that you can't yeah, 526 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:11,600 Speaker 1: but get a matchup like this. 527 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:13,960 Speaker 2: I'm not saying it's like bad as like a neutral. 528 00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,720 Speaker 3: I'm just saying, like the quality, like if you if 529 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,160 Speaker 3: if United of last year had to play I'm track 530 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,760 Speaker 3: Frankfurt in the final. I mean with that line, I 531 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 3: mean United to be like playing a goal or going 532 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,920 Speaker 3: a half, you know, and the same thing for you know, 533 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,880 Speaker 3: Sevilla or even that Chelsea team that Rattle that rolled 534 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 3: Arsenal or uh the Alette team that rolled Payette in Marseille. 535 00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 3: So that's from an entirely different point of view. I 536 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,639 Speaker 3: don't see much between these two teams. Frankfort has been 537 00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:43,960 Speaker 3: weird with me all year because I've had them undervalued 538 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 3: in the Bundesliga at various points of the season, and 539 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 3: the same thing with Europa League. And then they just 540 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 3: got this really good draw of teams I really wanted 541 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 3: to fade right. They got like Real Batiste to get 542 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,840 Speaker 3: to the to get to the quarters, a team if 543 00:24:57,880 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 3: you listen to this pod, you know, I think it 544 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:03,240 Speaker 3: is very to regress. Then they got Barcelona right at 545 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:05,639 Speaker 3: the peak of the Barslow's back narrative when they were 546 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 3: just crazy inflated in the market. And then they got 547 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,919 Speaker 3: west Ham, a team I'm also not fond of. Did 548 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,479 Speaker 3: enjoy the two to one match that Frankfurt beat them, 549 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,160 Speaker 3: and then they get they basically don't have to play 550 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:18,960 Speaker 3: the second leg because of the red card in the 551 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 3: tenth minute, and so they were up a man and 552 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:23,920 Speaker 3: up a goal for eighty minutes of their second leg, 553 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:25,679 Speaker 3: and they really didn't control the match as much as 554 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:27,160 Speaker 3: you would expect the team who was up a goal 555 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 3: in a man to do and then they go this 556 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 3: weekend they play Mines and there was nothing on the line, 557 00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 3: but they got pretty well handled in that match too 558 00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 3: and snuck a draw. So it's a team that I 559 00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,720 Speaker 3: have not been fond of in Frankfurt, and of course Rangers, 560 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,239 Speaker 3: I don't bet the Scottish Premier League, but like as 561 00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 3: far as their performances in Europe, I don't know what 562 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,400 Speaker 3: to make of them either. They beat Dortmund, who didn't 563 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:49,240 Speaker 3: look like they cared. Then they pull off this crazy 564 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 3: home win against Leipzig where they played one of the 565 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 3: best matches I've ever seen them play, And so how 566 00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 3: much of that was Leipzig being flat? How much of 567 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:00,840 Speaker 3: that was the home field advantage which they currently have 568 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,399 Speaker 3: up there at the Eyebrocks was absolutely bouncing and you 569 00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 3: know they won't have that in Seville on Wednesday. 570 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:08,400 Speaker 2: But overall, you look. 571 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:11,639 Speaker 3: At the five thirty eight ratings Beja's Power ratings, I 572 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,440 Speaker 3: don't project Scotland, so I don't have a number for this, 573 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 3: but they're all pretty close to a toss up, and 574 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 3: the market likes Frankfurt here and I'm not quite buying 575 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,720 Speaker 3: the Frankfurt hype either. So I'm gonna say, if you 576 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:24,440 Speaker 3: have to play this, I'm probably not going to play it. 577 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:26,480 Speaker 3: But if you do play it, like there's a plus 578 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,160 Speaker 3: one twenty one twenty five to lift the trophy on Rangers, 579 00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:31,120 Speaker 3: I think this is a toss up, so I would 580 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:35,000 Speaker 3: lean toward the underdog and ride the Rangers wave if 581 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:36,600 Speaker 3: I had to play it. But again, yeah, I'm probably 582 00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 3: sitting this one out. I do like the Conference League 583 00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,680 Speaker 3: more so maybe we'll talk about that. But if we 584 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 3: don't get to it, the Nord against Jose is going 585 00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:46,399 Speaker 3: to be a much more interesting matchup for me. 586 00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,200 Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to our favorite bets for 587 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,440 Speaker 1: the mid week. I'll go first. You know, this is 588 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 1: our penultimate show of the Premier League season, so I'm 589 00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:56,840 Speaker 1: going to go big. Leicester City plus eight hundred. I 590 00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,760 Speaker 1: just love the spot against Chelsea. Chelsea is coming off 591 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,399 Speaker 1: and a cup final on Saturday. They lost in a 592 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 1: shootout to Liverpool after one hundred and twenty minutes. They 593 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:08,639 Speaker 1: should be dead tired. They've played a ton of soccer 594 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 1: across the baby or basically around the world, right, don't 595 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,680 Speaker 1: forget they played the UEFA Club World Cup or whatever 596 00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,840 Speaker 1: it is in Dubai at some point against a Brazilian club. 597 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 1: I think that was in February. So they've been playing 598 00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,200 Speaker 1: a ton of soccer across a ton of competitions and 599 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,200 Speaker 1: with all that, not all that much at stake for 600 00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 1: the Blues at home. I do see this as being 601 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,960 Speaker 1: a potentially sleepy spot for them. Les there. We know 602 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,440 Speaker 1: they are a heavily flawed team, but they can still score, 603 00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,119 Speaker 1: they can still give teams trouble. Eight to one is 604 00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 1: a big number here, just considering the spot. It's a 605 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 1: bet you're much more likely to lose than to win. 606 00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,840 Speaker 1: But I just like the value on the Foxes in 607 00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:50,560 Speaker 1: what is a terrific, terrific scheduling spot, Anthony, what is 608 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:51,160 Speaker 1: your favorite bet? 609 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:54,679 Speaker 3: Crystal Palace plus a half at minus one twenty against 610 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:59,600 Speaker 3: your Toffees. I don't understand the market love for Everton. 611 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 3: They have massive injury issues piling up now. Yurimina, Fabian 612 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:07,200 Speaker 3: delf best defender, best midfielder out, Ben Godfrey may be out. 613 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,520 Speaker 3: Their backup striker was given a red card. 614 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 2: He's out. Starting striker looked injured at the end of 615 00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:16,879 Speaker 2: the match today. He may be out. And so all these. 616 00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,199 Speaker 3: Injuries are piling up. You have a Palace team who 617 00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:21,359 Speaker 3: is clearly playing until the end of the season, trying 618 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 3: to get in the top half of the table, fresh 619 00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 3: off of a good performance against Villa. 620 00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:26,159 Speaker 2: And so while I. 621 00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,040 Speaker 3: Understand that Palace has been worse on the road this 622 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:30,960 Speaker 3: year and their home road splits are pretty drastic, Palace 623 00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:32,840 Speaker 3: should dominate the midfield in this match. They have the 624 00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 3: better defense and they should not be catching a half 625 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 3: goal against Everton when they're clearly the better team. The 626 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:42,280 Speaker 3: market is just loving Everton because of their must win narrative. 627 00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,720 Speaker 3: I'm fading that and taking the Eagles plus a half. 628 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:49,160 Speaker 1: All right. That does it for this episode of Wonder Goal. 629 00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:51,920 Speaker 1: We will be back on Thursday morning to preview the 630 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 1: final weekend of the Premier League season, and then we'll 631 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 1: do a Champions League Final preview. Bj has said he 632 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 1: will be back both of those episodes if we can't 633 00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:05,760 Speaker 1: wait to welcoming back with open arms. But until then 634 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 1: we'll wish you best of luck with your bets this weekend. Hopefully, 635 00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:11,800 Speaker 1: but the next time you hear our voices, Evident will 636 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 1: have secured their safety for next season.