WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - May 17th, 2024 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:05.760 This is Bloomberg business Week Inside from the reporters and 0:00:05.920 --> 0:00:09.480 editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:09.560 --> 0:00:13.680 global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:19.040 Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebek from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:20.239 --> 0:00:23.120 Hi, everyone, Welcome to the Bloomberg Business Week Weekend Podcast. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.639 This week we are diving deep into some of the 0:00:25.680 --> 0:00:30.320 major geopolitical tensions of our time, including the ongoing tensions 0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:33.560 in the relationship between the US and China. One key 0:00:33.720 --> 0:00:36.560 driver of that stress Taiwan. We catch up with the 0:00:36.600 --> 0:00:39.040 author of The Struggle for Taiwan In just a moment. 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:43.520 Meantime, Russian President Vladimir Putin visiting Chinese President Shijin Ping, 0:00:43.880 --> 0:00:47.320 underlining the vital importance of their relationship. As Beijing faces 0:00:47.400 --> 0:00:51.320 growing US pressure to curtail support that's helping Moscow continue 0:00:51.320 --> 0:00:54.480 its war in Ukraine, the two pledging to intensify cooperation 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:58.480 against US containment of their countries. A new novel out 0:00:58.560 --> 0:01:01.440 takes us back to Moscow in the early nineteen nineties 0:01:01.640 --> 0:01:04.040 and to what might have been when it comes to 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:05.399 Russia's historical path. 0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:08.680 And then there is the Middle East, which has played 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:12.240 out in numerous protests on college campuses by pro Palestinian 0:01:12.280 --> 0:01:15.320 students and groups which have been largely shut down ahead 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:18.720 of recent college graduation. Well, it got us thinking again 0:01:18.800 --> 0:01:22.000 about all the money in higher education, and so the 0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:24.600 author of Bankers in the Ivory Tower, the troubling rise 0:01:24.640 --> 0:01:27.920 of financiers and US higher education will be along shortly. 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:29.920 All of that to come. We begin, though, with the 0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:33.400 US and China. This past week, JP Morgan CEO Jamie 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:36.400 Diamond called for full and thoughtful engagement with the country 0:01:36.720 --> 0:01:39.640 as President Biden imposed sweeping tariffs on a range of 0:01:39.720 --> 0:01:40.560 Chinese imports. 0:01:40.600 --> 0:01:43.760 And then tim there's Taiwan. This past week, Reuters reporting 0:01:43.880 --> 0:01:46.800 US and Taiwan navies conducted joint drills in the Western 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:50.600 Pacific and April, citing four unidentified people briefed on the matter, 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:53.640 and this as China's military has ramped up its activities 0:01:53.680 --> 0:01:56.560 in and around Taiwan over the past few years. Also, 0:01:56.600 --> 0:02:00.240 a US delegation in Taiwan this weekend for the inauguration 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:03.440 of Taiwan's next president, casting the visit as keeping with 0:02:03.560 --> 0:02:06.760 long standing practice in an effort to manage tensions between 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:09.880 the self governing island and China. 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:13.800 China, the US, Taiwan. As we like to say, it's complicated, 0:02:14.160 --> 0:02:16.640 and sometimes a history lesson is key in understanding the 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:20.560 situation and what's at stake. Sulman Wassaf Khan is professor 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:24.240 of History and International Relations at Tuff's University. His new 0:02:24.240 --> 0:02:27.959 book The Struggle for Taiwan, A History of America, China 0:02:28.000 --> 0:02:29.320 and the Island Caught Between. 0:02:29.560 --> 0:02:33.239 We're now at a point where there are large numbers 0:02:33.240 --> 0:02:35.639 of ships floating too close to one another, too many 0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:38.560 planes in the sky, and the US and China seemed 0:02:38.600 --> 0:02:41.280 to my mind to be one accident and a bad 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:44.880 decision away from something that could go horribly, horribly wrong 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:47.680 for all of us. And going through the history shows 0:02:47.680 --> 0:02:49.960 you both how we got here, but also that there 0:02:49.960 --> 0:02:53.400 were various ways out along the way, and there are 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:55.720 moments that we can look to and learn from and 0:02:55.760 --> 0:02:57.600 that might help us better navigate the future. 0:02:57.760 --> 0:02:59.880 Well, it's interesting that you say that, and I do. 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:04.360 I wonder it always feels so delicate, if you will, 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:07.640 And I think about going back to when Nancy Pelosi 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:09.760 what was it the summer of twenty twenty two, and 0:03:10.000 --> 0:03:12.040 took a visit she was then what us house speaker, 0:03:12.280 --> 0:03:15.000 and she went to visit Taipei. That was not a 0:03:15.000 --> 0:03:16.560 great situation, to say the least. 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:19.160 It was not a great situation. And if you cast 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:21.600 your mind back to that, you might remember who she Jin, 0:03:21.680 --> 0:03:25.280 who was the editor of a tabloid, saying her plane 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:29.079 should be shot down, which was remarkable. It's not something 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:33.360 that you would expect to be said, because usually Beijing 0:03:33.400 --> 0:03:36.320 has been quite good at controlling the level of vitriol 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:39.320 that gets into propaganda. But you think about it, and 0:03:39.360 --> 0:03:41.800 then you cast your mind back to the heinan spyplane 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:45.520 incident that kicked off George W. Bush's presidency, and you say, 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:48.480 you know, a Chinese plane collided with an American plane. 0:03:48.720 --> 0:03:50.760 But we all managed to walk away from that alive. 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:54.000 That was partly because there was an interest in both 0:03:54.040 --> 0:03:57.160 Beijing and in Washington and getting along and in not 0:03:57.360 --> 0:04:00.800 going to rule. When Belosi went to Taiwan, the thought 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:03.520 that kept going through my mind was if this goes wrong, 0:04:03.680 --> 0:04:06.880 do we have that mutual commitment to getting out of 0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:11.080 it live still intact? And the answer seemed to be uncertain, 0:04:11.160 --> 0:04:13.080 which is not something you want to think about. When 0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:15.640 there are two great powers armed with nuclear weapons. 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:17.279 You know, it's interesting. I feel like we have that 0:04:17.360 --> 0:04:19.800 conversation a lot about you know, both of us, kind 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:23.200 of whether it was the Middle East with Iran and Israel, 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:26.520 about walking away and saying, wait a minute, the risks 0:04:26.560 --> 0:04:30.960 of moving forward are escalating. Are just it's too much 0:04:31.000 --> 0:04:34.159 that's at stake. But when you look at what's happening 0:04:34.160 --> 0:04:37.840 in Taiwan and the US and China, is that willingness 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:42.799 to walk away and preserve some calmness if you will, 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:46.520 Is that willingness kind of waning if you will. 0:04:46.839 --> 0:04:50.120 I think it's waxing and waning. To be honest, it 0:04:50.160 --> 0:04:53.640 depends in any given moment. It was heartening to see 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:58.159 some commitments with both Joe Biden and reaching out to 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:00.360 one another and saying can we walk away from this? 0:05:01.040 --> 0:05:04.880 It was heartening to an extent to see some recognition that, 0:05:05.000 --> 0:05:07.560 you know, while China might be a competitor, we don't 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:10.520 want to go all the way into cataclysm. In some 0:05:10.560 --> 0:05:14.440 contact with Chinese officials to that effect. What was not heartening, however, 0:05:14.880 --> 0:05:18.440 was the fact that the waxing happened too. So you 0:05:18.520 --> 0:05:21.640 mentioned the terroriffs just now, you mentioned the drills, and 0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:24.520 it's an election year and in an election year, everybody 0:05:24.480 --> 0:05:27.080 advis to get tough on China. One of the things 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:30.559 Donald Trump did was to forge a bipartisan consensus around 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:33.839 the idea that we needed to get tough on China. 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:36.360 And that's something that in an election year will lead 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:38.240 to what, to my mind, amounts to a lot of 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:42.760 fostering and a lot of dangerous bosturing, because the sensitivities 0:05:42.760 --> 0:05:45.080 in daging are such that you don't know when things 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:45.720 will go wrong. 0:05:45.960 --> 0:05:48.479 Well as you know, getting tough, the United States getting 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:51.640 tough on China right, maybe through tariffs, and then there's 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:54.680 something different. I feel like when it comes to Taiwan. 0:05:55.240 --> 0:05:57.200 Is that fair to say that that is a whole 0:05:57.200 --> 0:05:59.800 other level in terms of what China, how it's used, 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:01.200 high and the importance of it. 0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:03.600 I think it's certainly a whole other level to Beijing. 0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:07.919 I think Taiwan is one of those spots that hurt 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:11.159 and that they felt they had a commitment from the 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:14.640 United States to a one China principle that the United 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:18.760 States still says we do not challenge that. But if 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:23.080 you look at things like trying to bolster Taiwan's diplomatic partnerships, 0:06:23.440 --> 0:06:26.520 if you look at things like Belosi's visit to Taiwan 0:06:26.600 --> 0:06:29.600 and other senior lawmakers visits to Taiwan. You really do 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:32.480 have to wonder, especially if you're sitting in Beijing, how 0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:35.520 committed is the United States to that principle that's being 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:37.520 you know, in some ways at the core of the 0:06:37.560 --> 0:06:40.600 relationship between the two countries since Nixon and Kissinger went 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:44.159 to China. If that is being challenged, it opens up 0:06:44.200 --> 0:06:47.960 a can of worms that's just far more sensitive than 0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:49.479 even a trade dispute would be. 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:52.279 You know, it feels like with President g the one country, 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:58.359 two systems policy that seem to work, it doesn't feel 0:06:58.360 --> 0:06:59.360 like it does anymore. 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:03.800 One country, two systems is a fascinating concept, and Dunshaping 0:07:03.960 --> 0:07:06.159 was actually the person who came up with it, right, 0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:08.920 And when Dun comes up with it, it's interesting he actually 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:12.440 wants it to work like two systems. He's very explicit 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:15.559 about saying, you know, when Hong Kong comes back under 0:07:15.600 --> 0:07:18.280 one country, two systems, I don't want to tamper with 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:21.840 the second system. It's the goose that lays the golden eggs. 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:24.480 Why would I change something that's working, And that actually 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:26.840 starts off a huge debate in Taiwan at the time, 0:07:26.880 --> 0:07:29.440 maybe one country, two systems is the way to go. 0:07:29.800 --> 0:07:32.520 What changes under Xi Jinping, of course, is that the 0:07:32.600 --> 0:07:36.160 second system bit gets left out. Hong Kong, if you 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:39.240 look at it today, is not a place that it 0:07:39.440 --> 0:07:42.960 was even ten years ago, even twenty years ago, when 0:07:43.000 --> 0:07:47.080 you could commemorate the Tianeman Square massacre, when you could 0:07:47.120 --> 0:07:49.280 criticize the government in Beijing, when you can do all 0:07:49.280 --> 0:07:52.400 sorts of things that you know mainland China proper, you 0:07:52.440 --> 0:07:54.880 probably could not have got away with. That's not the 0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:59.400 case anymore. So what Chijinping has demonstrated is that one country, 0:07:59.440 --> 0:08:02.400 two system items is a nice concept, but it can 0:08:02.520 --> 0:08:06.840 change with the people charged with implementing it. And if 0:08:06.880 --> 0:08:09.720 you're sitting in Taipei and you say, look, we worked 0:08:09.760 --> 0:08:13.000 really hard to get to a democracy where there have 0:08:13.040 --> 0:08:18.080 been peaceful transitions of power, one country, two systems doesn't 0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:19.480 look all that attractive anymore. 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:22.920 Soman, How do we get here where Taiwan is caught 0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:25.680 between the United States and China and we know that 0:08:25.720 --> 0:08:31.240 it's a nation that Beijing covets, protects ownership. You see 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:34.280 it very clearly, and yet as you note, it wasn't 0:08:34.400 --> 0:08:35.640 historically Chinese. 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:40.200 Historically, it starts off being its own weird level waste 0:08:40.240 --> 0:08:44.960 station between East Asia and Southeast Asia in maritime terms, 0:08:45.000 --> 0:08:48.559 and then the Qing dynasty conquers China along with other 0:08:48.640 --> 0:08:52.920 parts of the world and conquerors Taiwan. That dynasty then 0:08:53.080 --> 0:08:56.839 loses Taiwan to the Japanese Empire in the War of 0:08:56.880 --> 0:09:00.120 eighteen ninety four to five, and Taiwan is seed it 0:09:00.240 --> 0:09:04.520 to Japan in perpetuity. Perpetuity lasts till the end of 0:09:04.559 --> 0:09:07.640 World War two, and the United States at the Cairo 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:12.840 Declaration says that Taiwan is going to be restored to 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:16.600 the Republic of China. Problem with that declaration being there's 0:09:16.600 --> 0:09:19.520 many different China's at the time, including of course the 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:23.280 Communists and the civil war that erupts between the Communists 0:09:23.320 --> 0:09:26.400 and the nationalists that would be the Nationalists would be 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:29.480 the Republic of China. Is one that the United States 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:32.120 is not sure where it stands on. It wants to 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:35.280 wash its hands of the nationalists, and when the Nationalists 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:39.160 are eventually beaten back to the island of Taiwan, the 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:41.600 betting money is sooner or later, this too is going 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:44.400 to become part of the People's Republic of China. What 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:46.839 the nationalists set up on Taiwan is a police state 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:49.439 by the way, that has a whiff of settler colonialism 0:09:49.520 --> 0:09:51.800 to it, so there's not much sympathy for it. But 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:54.800 when the Korean War breaks out, Truman sends the Seventh 0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:57.520 Fleet to the Taiwan straight and that begins the separation 0:09:57.640 --> 0:10:01.240 of the island from the government that is governing China. 0:10:01.840 --> 0:10:05.640 For much of the next few decades, the United States 0:10:05.679 --> 0:10:08.520 is going to be stopped trying to choose between two Chinas, 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:11.920 and it's only when Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon decide 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:14.400 to make peace with the PRC in nineteen seventy one 0:10:15.160 --> 0:10:18.400 that the United States once again has a modus of 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:21.800 evende with Beijing. But that leaves the fate of Taiwan 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:25.199 uncertain because for domestic reasons, the United States feels it 0:10:25.240 --> 0:10:29.000 cannot come to a definitive handing over, as it were, 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:32.800 of Taiwan to the PRC. But the One China principle 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:36.400 acknowledges that Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait 0:10:36.520 --> 0:10:38.880 maintained that there is but one China, that Taiwan is 0:10:38.920 --> 0:10:40.959 a part of China, that the United States does not 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:46.400 dispute this formulation. That is more or less the situation 0:10:46.679 --> 0:10:50.319 that attains still normalization of relations between the United States 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:54.280 and the PRC with Jimmy Carter overseas. But that normalization 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:57.200 comes with the Taiwan Relations Act, which means that the 0:10:57.240 --> 0:11:00.720 President is supposed to think about the defense of Taiwan, 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:04.559 that being in the interests of the United States, which 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.280 of course has Beijing howling mad. But that is where 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:11.439 we are, and as a result, Taiwan has maintained a 0:11:11.559 --> 0:11:13.800 separation from China to this date. 0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:17.760 Well, you know, it's interesting, So you give that that history, 0:11:17.760 --> 0:11:19.839 and I feel like it's been a tortured relationship a 0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:22.840 little bit on the part of US and US politicians 0:11:22.880 --> 0:11:27.120 about what the US role is right in terms of 0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:28.040 protecting Taiwan. 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:31.280 It remains a tortured relationship. You know, if you look 0:11:31.320 --> 0:11:33.440 at the Taiwan Relations Act and ask, how is this 0:11:33.520 --> 0:11:36.800 consistent with the one China principle, right, and so it 0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:41.400 doesn't look all that consistent, but one can talk one's 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:44.120 way into thinking of it that way. If the United 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:47.720 States remains committed to the defense of Taiwan at some level, 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:49.960 that is saying we have an interest in what is 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:52.720 happening here, and we're willing to tell China what to 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:55.720 do about it. So to maintain that that is somehow 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:58.560 consistent with the idea that Taiwan is part of China 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:01.200 seems to me to be untenable. Why is the United 0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:03.120 States committed to this? I think there's a whole host 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:06.720 of reasons. There is s partly credibility. One wants to 0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:11.760 show China one can be tough. There is domestic political consideration. 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:17.120 One doesn't want to appear weak on China before one's constituents. 0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:19.840 And what has been created on that island is something 0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:21.199 that excites some sympathy. 0:12:21.800 --> 0:12:27.040 Well, what does Taiwan want and what's its own kind 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:29.920 of independent thought in all of this? And I think 0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:32.280 about it especially We spent so much time, as you 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:37.559 would imagine, talking about semiconductors, the importance of TSMC, how 0:12:37.559 --> 0:12:41.400 important it is to the world, the global world of semiconductors. 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:45.120 But I do think about what does Taiwan want in 0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:48.360 all of this? What can it do independently if anything? 0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:51.680 So I think what Taiwan wants And you actually saw 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:55.480 a consensus on this in the elections earlier this year. 0:12:57.240 --> 0:12:59.959 There doesn't seem to be any rush to unify with China. 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:05.200 The three parties that were contesting the election, mainly we're 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:08.800 all pretty much agreed on that there is a faction 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:13.520 that wants to declare independence outright. What's weighing against that, 0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:17.280 of course, is if one declares independence outright, one is 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:20.280 stuck with a situation where that might provoke China into 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:24.080 destroying such independence to facto independence as exists at the 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:27.320 moment right, and there's no guarantee that the United States 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:30.200 would do the right thing there. One never knows what 0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:32.400 the United States will do or not do at a 0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:36.000 given moment. So I think if you asked what is 0:13:36.040 --> 0:13:39.400 the one thing most people in Taiwana agreed on, it 0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:41.280 would be we don't want to jeopardize what we have. 0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:44.640 How one goes about that as a separate thing. Does 0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:48.080 it come with a commitment to declaring independence? Maybe some 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:51.800 point down the line, if one has prepared one's defenses 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:54.520 to the point where they could withstand or at least 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:57.520 cost China a lot if there were to be an assault. 0:13:57.920 --> 0:14:00.120 And one of the things that has sharpened this conversation 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:04.240 in Taiwan is what happened in Ukraine. It looked like 0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:07.720 the reason the United States was willing to commit money 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:10.000 to Ukraine and support to Ukraine was the fact that 0:14:10.040 --> 0:14:13.280 the Ukrainians, against quite a bit of the betting money, 0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:16.840 stood up for themselves. Would Taiwan be willing to do that? 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:19.600 And one of the interesting things about studying the past 0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:21.520 and studying how wars break out in the past and 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:23.760 what people do, is you never know till the last moment. 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:26.840 There's an element of choice that comes into it. But 0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:29.240 it is a conversation that's being had over there, and 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:32.000 it's a conversation that's being had with increasing intensity. 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:35.360 Just thirty seconds, and I need you to be quick 0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:38.840 if I can, if I may the driver's seat. Who's 0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:41.640 in the driver's seat in this triangular relationship US, China 0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:42.240 or Taiwan. 0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:45.640 Nobody everybody has the illusion they're in the driver's seat, 0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:47.440 but they're all jostling for the steering wheel. 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:50.920 That can cause issues, as we know. I hope we 0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:53.160 can continue this conversation in the future because I do 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:55.360 feel like this is an important issue and you're absolutely 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:58.280 right with what's going on in Russia Ukraine right now, 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:01.840 very very topical and very very relevant. Congratulations on the 0:15:01.840 --> 0:15:05.240 book Suman Khan, Professor and Dennison Chair in History in 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:09.760 International Relationships relations Excuse Me at Tufts University. His new 0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:12.480 book that is out, The Struggle for Taiwan, A History 0:15:12.480 --> 0:15:15.560 of America, China and the Island Caught Between. 0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:20.360 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast Catch Us 0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:23.600 Live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:25.800 on Apple car Play and then brout Auto with a 0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:29.520 Bloomberg Business app or wants us Live on YouTube. 0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:33.400 Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Beijing this past week, meeting 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:38.440 with Chinese President Jijimping, publicly underlining their strong relations in 0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:41.520 a direct challenge to the United States. As Moscow presses 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:44.600 forward with a new offensive in Ukraine. Putin's visit coming 0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:48.400 as Russia has become more economically dependent on China following 0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:51.520 Moscow's full scale invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago. 0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:53.960 A new book out takes us back to how Russia 0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:56.160 might have been more of an ally to the West 0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:59.440 and to the US. It's in a novel by Kevin Maney. 0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:01.960 He's the New York Times best selling author who was 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:05.120 a journalist in Moscow. His work is one of fiction. 0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:08.200 It's called Red bottom Line and it was written thirty 0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:08.880 years ago. 0:16:09.360 --> 0:16:11.640 I actually was writing it when my daughter was first born, 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:15.200 and so thirty some years later she starts asking me 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:15.560 about it. 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:18.120 She says, you know, you wrote that novel. Where is it? 0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:20.200 I'm going like, I wrote it at a floppy disc, 0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:23.320 I worked perfect, like I'm never gonna it. Turned out 0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:25.080 that I had a print out of it, and I 0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:26.680 pulled out the print out and I started reading it, 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.360 and I'm going like, wait, this is actually pretty good 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:30.320 with a little work. 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:32.880 Why did it just collect dust on a floppy disc 0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:33.600 for thirty years? 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:33.760 Though? 0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:33.880 Like? 0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:36.000 What stopped you from pursuing? 0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:38.000 You know, I didn't know anything about the book business. 0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:40.520 I sent it to a couple of editors randomly, which 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:41.280 was probably dumb. 0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:42.960 Didn't hear anything back, and I. 0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:44.840 Just kind of figured, well, you know, all right, never mind. 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:47.640 You know, it's like, probably not that good. But then I, 0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:50.560 you know, I went on and started writing nonfiction books 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:52.760 and had a lot of success. I have published nine 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:56.760 nonfiction books, all about business and biographies and things like that. 0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:59.880 So when I returned to it, you know, I had 0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:01.600 of a path and more of a knowledge of like 0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:02.920 how to get this thing published. 0:17:03.080 --> 0:17:04.720 I think what's interesting is it takes us back to 0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:07.960 a different era, right And I know at your book 0:17:08.000 --> 0:17:09.879 party we talked a little bit about it and stuff. 0:17:09.880 --> 0:17:12.920 But you think about, you know, what our expectations were 0:17:13.280 --> 0:17:16.040 for a Russia moving forward or a Soviet or what 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:18.760 the new Soviet Union or not, you know, the dissolution 0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:21.000 like they did their first presidential election. Like you just 0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:23.720 think about where it was and where it could have gone. 0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:26.160 Well, that was, you know, and when you read the 0:17:27.200 --> 0:17:29.640 if you read the novel, because it's you. 0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:31.600 Know, it's all real stuff that I experienced. 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:33.520 I mean it's basically it's made up story based on 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:35.160 real facts of what was happening. 0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:38.080 And there was this optimism. There was a sense. 0:17:38.119 --> 0:17:41.440 Among young people and there's you know, these young characters 0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:43.919 in the novel who are all into this idea of 0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:46.680 like creating businesses and you know, getting into private enterprise 0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:50.520 and you know, making contacts with Westerners, and and there 0:17:50.600 --> 0:17:53.760 was this incredible optimism that there was something new was 0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:54.920 going to arise out of. 0:17:54.800 --> 0:17:57.879 This and everybody felt that, right. 0:17:57.840 --> 0:17:58.760 Yeah, everybody felt that. 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:01.320 And you know, and us business people were starting to 0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:04.680 go over I you know, I ended up being present 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:06.680 at the opening of the Moscow McDonald's. 0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:08.960 I was going to talk about that because that's like 0:18:09.080 --> 0:18:11.639 so iconic from that era, and it was also iconic 0:18:11.840 --> 0:18:14.080 two years ago around this time. We talked a lot 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:17.520 about it because when McDonald's exited the country in the 0:18:17.560 --> 0:18:20.440 wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it brought back those 0:18:20.480 --> 0:18:23.040 images from the early nineties of people waiting in line 0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:24.200 to try the first big. 0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:26.760 Mac that's right, yeah, and it was. 0:18:26.800 --> 0:18:29.280 I mean, we forget about it now, but it was 0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:33.760 this incredible cultural, geopolitical event that McDonald's opened in Moscow, 0:18:34.080 --> 0:18:36.120 and there were like I think there were thirty eight 0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:39.399 thousand people that went the first day to that McDonald's 0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:41.120 because they were so hungry for. 0:18:41.400 --> 0:18:43.639 Not hungry for burgers, but hungry for like, you know, 0:18:43.720 --> 0:18:44.720 American stuff. 0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:46.800 Well, you know, it's funny. I have a conversation when 0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:48.040 I was with my husband and we just said, you 0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:50.959 know what, if we had decided rather than especially if 0:18:50.960 --> 0:18:52.960 you look at the tensions between US and China today, 0:18:53.000 --> 0:18:54.800 like if we decided, well, let's work with Russia and 0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:57.959 let's manufacture stuff there, Like just if we'd made as 0:18:58.040 --> 0:19:01.720 a as a world, as a you know, generally decided 0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:04.080 to work more with Russia going forward, Like you just 0:19:04.160 --> 0:19:06.080 wonder how things might have played out differently. 0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:09.880 Well, there wasn't the transition time. There wasn't enough time 0:19:09.960 --> 0:19:13.240 for enough stuff to happen because pretty quickly, and I 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:15.600 experienced this because I wasn't living there, but I was 0:19:15.720 --> 0:19:19.840 traveling there frequently, right and from the late eighties to 0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:23.040 around nineteen ninety two, you could actually sense every trip 0:19:23.280 --> 0:19:26.800 that things were getting like more chaotic, more dangerous, more weird, 0:19:27.280 --> 0:19:30.600 because you know, there's this sort of transitions of the 0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:34.000 government from Gorbachev Yels and Yelsen was kind of a disaster. 0:19:34.080 --> 0:19:36.720 He wasn't really he started handing out whole industries to 0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:39.439 his friends, which is what the birth of the oligarchs was. 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:43.399 Sort of mob activity was running half the economy, and 0:19:43.480 --> 0:19:45.720 so there was never a chance for this to really 0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:48.639 catch hold before the Russian society basically got sick of 0:19:48.640 --> 0:19:51.119 this and was welcoming somebody like Putin to come in 0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:53.680 and say I'm going to actually create some order out 0:19:53.680 --> 0:19:55.959 of this chaos, and then it just all kind of 0:19:55.960 --> 0:19:58.159 fell apart in terms of being able to connect with 0:19:58.160 --> 0:19:58.520 the West. 0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:00.720 What I think so notable about the novel is that 0:20:00.880 --> 0:20:03.639 it paints a picture of what could have been in 0:20:03.720 --> 0:20:06.359 Russia and what many people in the early nineteen nineties 0:20:06.400 --> 0:20:10.040 thought would actually happen. It's there collecting dust for thirty 0:20:10.119 --> 0:20:12.159