1 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET 2 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:14,760 Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. 3 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 1: I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network. Today is 4 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:22,959 Speaker 1: our Tuesday Divisional Round episode. We will break down the 5 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:27,479 Speaker 1: lines for the best weekend of the NFL season. We 6 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 1: will also discuss our exec decision and our as Simon says, 7 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: do not fret. Thursday, we will have the usual menu 8 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 1: foxhol big balls, all that good stuff. We will also 9 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 1: get into some totals other bets we like both today 10 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 1: and on Thursday, expand a little bit since we've only 11 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: got four games live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. 12 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 1: I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, 13 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 1: Mike and padre my BFF professional bet or Simon Hunter 14 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:00,040 Speaker 1: at O Simon. 15 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 2: Hello chat. Yeah, we're looking into this week to have 16 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:04,680 Speaker 2: a little bit of a bounce back, right three on 17 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 2: three on sides and you know, totals five and one 18 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 2: to the under, which was great, but obviously we know 19 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 2: people come here for our sides. Pixel. Yeah, hopefully we 20 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:15,319 Speaker 2: go above five hundred this week. 21 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, look, we were on the Rams yesterday as 22 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 1: we were on the Bucks on Sunday night, And I'm 23 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 1: not kidding Matthew Stafford when it looked like he had 24 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:27,759 Speaker 1: fumbled the ball when they were up ten to three 25 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 1: and had been dominating and the Eagle and the Vikings 26 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 1: ran it back. Yeah, I immediately flashed back to Baker 27 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 1: the night before All Star quarterback random fluke fumble in 28 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 1: a game that they were dominating or starting to dominate. 29 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: I'm like, are you fucking kidding me? This is happening 30 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: two nights in a row. Did you feel that way. 31 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 2: A little bit? But it's also about this is why 32 00:01:57,440 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 2: playoffs are the best, Right. It's this game of chess, 33 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 2: and you're just if your opponent makes this little mistake 34 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 2: that dictates the whole game, right, And that's that's what 35 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 2: you're talking about there at Baker. So the Stafford play, 36 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:11,079 Speaker 2: I was never worried about it, but it also makes 37 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 2: me just hate the quarterback position. It's just like that. 38 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 2: Even Belichick, I don't know if you saw in the 39 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 2: many casts, he's just disgusted by it, and he's just like, 40 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:20,359 Speaker 2: only in the NFL would that be allowed to get 41 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 2: away with that? Right? Just a little shuffle pass, flick 42 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 2: of the wrist at your receiver's ankles basically, and yeah, 43 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 2: I feel like we definitely got away one in that play, 44 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 2: but I think once you watch that whole game, we 45 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 2: were never gonna not cover that game. I mean, even 46 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 2: if it was ten ten at that point, I still 47 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 2: think long term the Rams would have won that game. 48 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 2: We just that game really did well. We talk of 49 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:44,040 Speaker 2: all the time, comes down to the quarterbacks and Sam Donald. 50 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 2: Back to back worst games of the season form so 51 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 2: pretty brutal stretch for Sam Donald. 52 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 1: Yeah. I saw that Stafford play in replay, and I 53 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: thought to myself, that's why we like to bet Matthew Stafford. 54 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 1: The guy knew where his receiver was going to be, 55 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 1: and without even seeing it, did the veteran savvy move 56 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:10,119 Speaker 1: of backhanded flick of the wrist got away with it. 57 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 1: Exactly why we like Matthew Stafford. 58 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 2: I get why people are get upset because you could 59 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:18,239 Speaker 2: you definitely saw the ball moving and becoming loose when 60 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,239 Speaker 2: he flicked it again. Like you just said, super veteran play, 61 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 2: like he had enough on his singer tips to move it. 62 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 2: But you definitely saw the ball leaving the palm of 63 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 2: his hand when he got hit and was moving. It 64 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:28,920 Speaker 2: was just like like you just said, thank God for 65 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 2: a veteran quarterback, because that is a guy who's been 66 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 2: in the league a long time in his savvy vet. 67 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 1: There's one other thing I want to ask you about 68 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: before we get into the games. So good news, Mike 69 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 1: Rabel is back. We lost Doug Peterson last week. We 70 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 1: get Mike Rabel back. Yeah this week. 71 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 2: Ah. 72 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: We love betting Frabel, along with Tomlin, one of the 73 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 1: best coaches to bet of the past twenty years, whether 74 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: it's straight up as a dog or as a dog, 75 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 1: he always had the Titans coming through for us. Now 76 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: he's got a talented young QB, a lockdown corner along 77 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: with the pen. I cannot wait to start betting the 78 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: Patriots next year. But in reality, off the top of 79 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 1: your head, as we inch closer to off season, when 80 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 1: we're starting to project these things, how much of a 81 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 1: difference do you think it will make with Vrabel as 82 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: a coach who has historically covered when you start evaluating 83 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: the Patriots in the off season. 84 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:26,120 Speaker 2: You definitely are going to give them a one and 85 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 2: a half to two wins bump just because of variable 86 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 2: and now you'll see what their off season moves are, 87 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 2: what their schedules, like how people have them power rated 88 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 2: vice versa your power ratings. And yeah, my initial thought 89 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 2: was just yeah, if they have hit on the quarterback position, 90 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:44,280 Speaker 2: they could become a juggernaut and what a year or 91 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 2: two like if they can draft right, We've seen it. 92 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,560 Speaker 2: If you if you hit on the quarterback, it shifts 93 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 2: the whole confidence of the whole you know, the whole organization. 94 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 2: It's it really is life changing. And then if you 95 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:55,720 Speaker 2: bringing the right coach, it's even more so. Right, That's 96 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:57,839 Speaker 2: that's the key. And we've seen that this season where 97 00:04:58,120 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 2: you know, not that I had a major question about 98 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 2: Dan Quinn, but I did, and he came in. He 99 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,559 Speaker 2: apparently adjusted. He became more of a team player coach, 100 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 2: more of a players guy. And you know, Jane Daniels 101 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 2: obviously changed organization. Bo Nicks, Sean Payton changed that Denver organization. 102 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:16,480 Speaker 2: So yeah, I saw some crazy stat It was basically, 103 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 2: Jane Daniels was born in two thousand. That was the 104 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 2: last time the Miami Dolphins won a playoff game. So 105 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 2: it just shows how it can just be hell if 106 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 2: you don't have the right coach to right quarterback in 107 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 2: an organization, and if you do hit on it, it 108 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 2: changes everything in just a year. So that's what's so 109 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 2: cool with the NFL. The quarterback position is just such 110 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 2: a special position. 111 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 1: Well, that's a great transition to my next question for you, 112 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 1: which is on Sunday afternoon, my son was telling me 113 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:47,279 Speaker 1: about a bunch of different social handles that are playing 114 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 1: this game where they're predicting which coaches are going to 115 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: land where in the NFL. Every single one of them 116 00:05:55,160 --> 00:06:00,919 Speaker 1: had the Bears getting Cliff Kingsbury. This was this was 117 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: before the McCarthy news. And then this morning I read 118 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 1: on ESPN dot com Dan Graziano was predicting based on 119 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 1: the people he's spoken to, which coaches were going to 120 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 1: land where, and he had Brian Flores going to the Bears. So, 121 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 1: if you are me, do you prefer with Kingsbury, Mike 122 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 1: McCarthy or Brian Flores? Do we prefer falling off the 123 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:33,799 Speaker 1: cliff in November? Do we prefer not winning in the playoffs? 124 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 1: Do we prefer a coach who was already potentially or 125 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: could have ruined a franchise quarterback. 126 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 2: I would only reason I'll go Cliff is because you 127 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 2: just want the offensive guy when you have the quarterback 128 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 2: like you do. Like the defense of mentality. Even if 129 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 2: you bring in the right coordinator like a Ben Johnson 130 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 2: is not He's not going to be there for a 131 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 2: long haul. He'll eventually leave for the next better opportunity 132 00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 2: the offensive coordinator. So to me, you want to get 133 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 2: the offensive mine with the quarterback that you guys have, 134 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 2: And that makes me so sad to hear. Like again, 135 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 2: we like and respect Brian Flores. I don't know if 136 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 2: you saw Ryan Fitzpatrick talking about him. It's like this 137 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 2: man has to stay and discuss for this guy years 138 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 2: and years later. And you know he was the one 139 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 2: that was treated well by Brian Flores. He wasn't even 140 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 2: the TUA in the relationship. So yeah, it's a man. 141 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 2: I feel bad for you, Chad. It's just tough being 142 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 2: a Bears fan. And I mean this sounds crazy to say, 143 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 2: but yeah, my mentality of it would be I would 144 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 2: hope they would just go offensive. And I get why Brian. 145 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 2: People love Brian Flores. What he's done with that Viking's 146 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 2: defense has been incredible, but you know, I just I 147 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 2: can't see that working well, especially the personalities of him 148 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 2: being the old school guy where Caleb is the definition 149 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 2: of new wave gen Z right, Like, I just I 150 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 2: can't see that working well. So yeah, for you, I know, 151 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 2: it's painful because we just don't trust the guy at all. 152 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 2: But Kingsbury, I guess would be the best fit. 153 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 1: It's been an interesting experience going through this with my son. 154 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: It's like the first time he's feeling invested in who 155 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 1: the Bears hire as a coach, right because because the 156 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 1: Bears have Caleb and so it feels like we have 157 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 1: an opportunity. And you know, the last time we hired 158 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 1: a coach Iria Flew was like, we didn't really have 159 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 1: high expectations. And so he's feeling it and he's texting 160 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 1: me when he should be paying attention to whatever class 161 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 1: he's in about the latest thing he's hearing about the 162 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 1: Bears coaching search. And I just keep saying to him, 163 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:41,199 Speaker 1: imagine the worst possible resolution and then make it worse. 164 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 1: If there is a coach out there who's not on 165 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 1: the radar the Bear's going to hire. They can hire 166 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: my high school football coach, not my coach, but the 167 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:51,440 Speaker 1: guy who coached my high school football team. They'll find 168 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: a way to make it look like it's the exact 169 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 1: right decision when we all know it's not. So I'm 170 00:08:55,679 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: just trying to tempering his expectations. And last night we 171 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 1: were talking about it, I'm like, I just don't think 172 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 1: you get it. I don't think you get how painful 173 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 1: and horrible this is gonna be. I'm sorry for. 174 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:10,599 Speaker 2: You and your division. Right Like, you're coming into a 175 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 2: vision with Dan Campbell, Lafleur and KOC and it's like, man, 176 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 2: you really do need to hit on someone here, because 177 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 2: it is you guys are lagging in that category by 178 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 2: a mile. 179 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 1: The things we do to our children. As a reminder, 180 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five 181 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:29,560 Speaker 1: and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get one 182 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet 183 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 1: five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites the positive 184 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: ten dollars place to bet for five dollars to get 185 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus 186 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 1: bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures 187 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:44,959 Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. A Bet 188 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 1: three sixty five must be twenty one or older and 189 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, 190 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,839 Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one 191 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:00,360 Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred be off in 192 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply four games to get through, 193 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 1: four sides, four totals, anything else that comes up. The 194 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:17,680 Speaker 1: best football weekend during the NFL season, We love the 195 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 1: Divisional playoffs. Houston at Kansas City, first game on the board, 196 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 1: Saturday afternoon. Kansas City is an eight point favorite at 197 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 1: bet three six five. The total was forty one and 198 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 1: a half bigger than the Mountains, taller than jgrees half before. 199 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:44,559 Speaker 2: Take the hard to the place squee below Kansas City. 200 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 1: The line has moved within a very specific narrow band. 201 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 1: It opened at seven and a half, got it up 202 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 1: to eight and a half, down to eight seven and 203 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 1: a half in a lot of spots. The elephant in 204 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: the room Mahomes is a favorite of more than three, 205 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 1: being a historically bad bet versus the combo of home 206 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:14,800 Speaker 1: teams and favorites this season and during the wild card 207 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 1: being the right side. These teams did play each other 208 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 1: about three weeks ago. They played on the twenty first 209 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 1: of December. The line was three and a half. Simon. 210 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 1: I'm going to dig deeper into what we did in 211 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 1: that game. But if you're looking at this and it's eight, 212 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:34,560 Speaker 1: it's seven and a half, a difference of four points 213 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 1: from the last time they played at home for Kansas City. 214 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 1: What do you see here? 215 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is honestly because it is the playoffs 216 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 2: to meet Chad, that the books will adjust this way 217 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:50,319 Speaker 2: because we know it's just different. And the same thing 218 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 2: with my model. My model has this as great value 219 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 2: on Houston, right, and it's just because it simply doesn't 220 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 2: understand the Mahomes factor. We talked about that last year. 221 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 2: I had the forty nine ers as favorites in the 222 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 2: Super Bowl, but I still bet the Chiefs. I had 223 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 2: the Eagles unfortunately as the favor in the Super Bowl, 224 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:10,959 Speaker 2: and I went against it, and I learned that lesson 225 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 2: pretty hard that day. It's just like these models, it's 226 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 2: like the Tom Brady effect. They just can't compute Mahomes 227 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 2: and what that just does to the guys in the 228 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 2: other sideline. Right. We always talk about that the guys 229 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 2: on the other side, and I'm looking across at my home. 230 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 2: Especially in the playoffs, it's different. You know that that 231 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 2: killers across the field and he's coming for you. So yeah, 232 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 2: in a normal regular season, Chad, we would be hammering 233 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 2: the Texans. Here it's CJ as a huge dog against 234 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 2: Mahomes who plays with his food. But that changes in 235 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 2: the playoffs. So we talked about it a little bit 236 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:40,840 Speaker 2: on Sunday night. If you do want to take a 237 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 2: position on Houston, I'm not doing it up saying if 238 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:44,559 Speaker 2: you do, Chad gave it out. I believe it was 239 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,200 Speaker 2: five and a half six first half on the Houston number. 240 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 2: Dake it Houston, I think there, what Evan are they 241 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 2: fourteen and three or fifteen and two this season? First 242 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 2: half against the spread? Incredible. They've been incredible, and we've 243 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 2: seen the Chiefs do come out slow. I personally just 244 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 2: can't do it. I'm even thinking about it right now. 245 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 2: I'm getting visions of them in arrow ahead. It's twenty 246 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:08,960 Speaker 2: five degrees and it'shus Mahomes first drive touchdown fourteen and 247 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:11,320 Speaker 2: four against the first half. So Houston has just been 248 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 2: incredible at first half, and yeah, this is and it's 249 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 2: just a number in the fact that you've seen a 250 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:19,719 Speaker 2: lot of these numbers get bumped up because it is 251 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 2: what the sports books need to do. They need to 252 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 2: protect against the money line parlays and the teasers. And 253 00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 2: when this number opened seven and a half, that to 254 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 2: me was right, Like I said, my model is this 255 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:32,680 Speaker 2: at seven. So it's like, okay, it's up half a 256 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 2: point for people doing the seven point teasers, doing the 257 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:37,560 Speaker 2: six point teasers, right, that's they're still getting the key number. 258 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 2: Now that it is up to eight and a half, 259 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 2: you know, that's that's crossed a bunch of key numbers 260 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 2: at this point. This is now if you do teaser, 261 00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:47,199 Speaker 2: this is at two and a half, which is still value. 262 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 2: But it's also reason I could still see this keep 263 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:51,439 Speaker 2: going up. I could still see the books keep moving 264 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:54,439 Speaker 2: this just because the pros that are going to bet Houston. 265 00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 2: I don't know why they had rushed about it. It's 266 00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 2: the same thing we're gonna talk about this week. Like 267 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 2: if you like the dogs, you kind of can be 268 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 2: patient at this point because the numbers have basically moved 269 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 2: to where they're going to be at at this point, 270 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 2: like they might keep going up because of public money 271 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 2: and some professional may they do like the favorites. But yeah, 272 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:12,719 Speaker 2: this this spot for me, Like it's crazy to look 273 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 2: back on last week. I should have went six and 274 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,200 Speaker 2: zer on those unders. The only under I didn't hit 275 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 2: was that fluke Houston Chargers game, which was like the 276 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 2: stupidest over. Like it really killed me too, because I 277 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:23,640 Speaker 2: was the start of the week and it was just like, 278 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 2: oh god, if I made a huge mistake ben these unders, 279 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 2: if we got such bullshit like that. No, it's you 280 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 2: gotta trust the numbers, and right here, most people are 281 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 2: gonna know if they break it down. It's if you 282 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 2: look at these totals and especially this game, this is 283 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 2: going to be the lowest total of the week, right, 284 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 2: I think it's already down to forty two a lot 285 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 2: of books. That's because we saw it last week. Houston 286 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 2: has a great pass rush. We know that the Chiefs 287 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 2: have struggles on the offensive line. On the flip side, 288 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 2: it spags in the playoffs. It spags at home in 289 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 2: the playoffs, like they just the Chiefs dominate unless it's 290 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 2: Josh Allen. They dominate teams at home in this exact 291 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 2: spot defensively. So yeah, if you're looking for my early 292 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 2: side right now. On Tuesday, I liked the Chiefs of 293 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 2: this number. I'd betted up to nine ten. Once it 294 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 2: gains to ten, that's when I stopped. But at this number, 295 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 2: I still feel confident in my homes just closing out 296 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 2: this Houston team that you know, they got away with 297 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 2: them last week. And I do get people's view on this, 298 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 2: taking taking CJ in this exact spot. I can't can't 299 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 2: say a bad word about it because it is the 300 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 2: professional sharp side. But to me, it's like, at what 301 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 2: point does the number make sense? A nine and a 302 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 2: half ten, I can be talked into Houston at that point, 303 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 2: But at nine and below, I think the value still 304 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 2: in this Chiefs team. 305 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 1: So when they played on the twenty first and the 306 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: line was three and a half, to me, that was 307 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 1: about up to that point, the Chiefs had been winning 308 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 1: games by one point two point three points. They'd also 309 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 1: been playing sort of with with you know, one arm 310 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 1: tied behind their back in terms of the weapons, right 311 00:15:55,360 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 1: they were missing Jalen Watson on defense at cornerback, and 312 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 1: we talked about this on the show a bunch. When 313 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 1: Spags runs his offense his defense, he really needs to 314 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 1: have great coverage in the secondary. Well, it's possible Jalen 315 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 1: Watson is coming back this week. They were playing obviously 316 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: all season without Hollywood Brown. They played most of the 317 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 1: season and were just getting DeAndre Hopkins into rhythm in 318 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:29,240 Speaker 1: the latter half of the year. Isaiah Picheko, that was 319 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 1: one of his first games. 320 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 2: The biggest things. 321 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 1: That was one of his first games back. Right, So 322 00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 1: in the latter half of the year, forget about the 323 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 1: Broncos game. In the three games before the Broncos game, 324 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 1: when they sat everybody, they were favorites on the road 325 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 1: against the Browns. Normally you'd automatically want to fade the 326 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 1: Chiefs in that spot. They won twenty one to seven. 327 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 1: The next week, they're three and a half point favorites 328 00:16:56,040 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: at home against the Texans. Again, historically you want to 329 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 1: fade Patrick Mahomes as more than a three point favorite, 330 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 1: and they're going against a good defense and a good 331 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 1: quarterback who struggled, but still a good quarterback. They win 332 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:14,520 Speaker 1: by seventeen points. The next weekend, they're on the road again, 333 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 1: two point favorites against the Steelers. It's a spot you 334 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 1: want to smash. Mike Tomlin at home Rah rah. They 335 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 1: cover with these so at some point and we bet 336 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 1: by the way we did bet, I went back and looked, 337 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: we bet the Chiefs against the Texans when they were 338 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites, because we were starting 339 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 1: to feel like this was a team that was coming 340 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 1: into its own and through the hard phase and realizing 341 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:44,600 Speaker 1: how they were going to play once they got to 342 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:48,439 Speaker 1: the playoffs. I'm glad you're saying the Chiefs because I 343 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 1: wanted to bet the Chiefs and like I needed a 344 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:52,399 Speaker 1: little bit of reassurance. 345 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:54,920 Speaker 2: And another way, I wanted to bet Houston honestly coming 346 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 2: into it, and I was like trying to find reasons, 347 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:59,439 Speaker 2: even looking for trends off the wait and see if 348 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 2: Evans finds out better ones about why you should back Houston. 349 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 2: But my biggest one was just, man, this this feels 350 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:06,399 Speaker 2: like you're getting free points here because of these teasers 351 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 2: in these parlays. But we talk all the time like 352 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,719 Speaker 2: there's certain certain numbers that do make sense and when 353 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:13,639 Speaker 2: you really dive into the numbers that back it up, 354 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 2: and it's like, man, that Houston team they definitely got 355 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 2: away of the one last week and that we're let's 356 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 2: gonna be a theme this week about certain teams that 357 00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:23,920 Speaker 2: are a little inflated, overrated from their previous week, and 358 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,359 Speaker 2: it feels like that might be here with Houston, because 359 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:28,959 Speaker 2: I thought this would just be all Chiefs money. And 360 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:31,160 Speaker 2: you know, we've had two days now and I've talked 361 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 2: to a bunch of different book makers, not just here 362 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 2: in Jersey, a couple of guys in PA and it's 363 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 2: plenty of Houston money at this point. So I think 364 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:42,200 Speaker 2: the public is still in the perspective of this Chiefs 365 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 2: team is not this juggernut one seed where I'm on 366 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 2: the other way, I'm like, this is one of the 367 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 2: best runs we've ever seen, one of the best organizations, 368 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 2: and they just always get better as the season goes along, 369 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 2: and you just laid it out for people like you 370 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 2: saw a turn. As they've gotten back these guys on offense, 371 00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 2: I've gotten healthy that they can if they want to 372 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 2: run up the scroll on these teams, and we've seen 373 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:02,960 Speaker 2: the playoffs. They don't take their foot off the gas. 374 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 2: Andy Reid leans into and tries to dominate these teams, 375 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 2: especially at home. 376 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:13,440 Speaker 1: It feels weird to say people are sleeping on them. 377 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 1: A fifteen win two time, defending champ number one seed, 378 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:22,919 Speaker 1: but all of the attention is on Buffalo and Baltimore. 379 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:25,640 Speaker 1: And the one thing I think about with this defense 380 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,639 Speaker 1: that the Texans have, and everyone gets excited about Danielle 381 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 1: Hunter and Will Anderson and how many sacks they had 382 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,159 Speaker 1: against the Chiefs, against the Chargers and what they did 383 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 1: during the year, and I just think to myself, Patrick 384 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 1: Mahomes is so hard to sack. They've had a bad 385 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 1: left tackle the entire season, and they figured out how 386 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 1: to manage it, including the last few weeks when they 387 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 1: just moved Joe Tooney out there. Patrick Mahomes on third 388 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 1: down knows exactly when to run. He is so frustrating 389 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 1: to try to defend. I think he breaks your spirit. 390 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 1: I really do. It's a big number. I'm not afraid 391 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,080 Speaker 1: of it. It's not assignment says, it's not an exact decision, 392 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 1: but we're leaning the Chiefs here. And it seems to 393 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 1: me you mentioned the under it's forty one and a half. 394 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:20,159 Speaker 2: I mean, in Jersey there's Bethrieix five's forty two, but 395 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 2: if you shop around there is there is a forty 396 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 2: two and a half out there at a very public book. 397 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 2: But yeah, so that's literally come down while we've done 398 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,640 Speaker 2: the show, Like before we hopped on, there's a bunch 399 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:30,640 Speaker 2: of forty two and a half, its forty two out there. Now, 400 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 2: you're right, it's moving people. It's moving down to forty 401 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:34,679 Speaker 2: one and a half in a lot of books. But 402 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 2: do we like the under I like it, but it's 403 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 2: starting to move through key numbers at this point, like 404 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,399 Speaker 2: it's at the edge. Is like incredibly swolln On and 405 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 2: I literally have this game of forty one, so like, yeah, 406 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 2: I like it a forty one and a half sure, 407 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 2: but yeah, we're losing a little bit of value there 408 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 2: with the big money coming in moving this number. 409 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:54,920 Speaker 1: Now, Washington at Detroit Detroit is a nine and a 410 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,639 Speaker 1: half point favorite. The total is fifty five and a half. 411 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 1: This is the primetime game on Saturday night. 412 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 2: There's so many many reasons any time, any season is 413 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 2: the right time to be with you. Hello, Detroy, do you. 414 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 1: Want my first instinct on this? Holy moly, this is 415 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 1: a huge number. 416 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 2: Yes, Simon says, give me Washington plus nine and a half. 417 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:42,400 Speaker 2: Chat When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says, 418 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 2: this is an insane number. What is this number is 419 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 2: this is this US overreacting too much to last week? 420 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,919 Speaker 2: And Daniels, I don't think it is all the praise 421 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 2: he's getting. I haven't had this amazing tweet that went viral. 422 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 2: Zero pun zero turnovers on the road. Only him and 423 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 2: Peyton Maney have ever done that in the playoffs. So yeah, 424 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,639 Speaker 2: we're like we said, we're seeing something special here. But 425 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,159 Speaker 2: me and you talked about a little bit that was 426 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 2: Baker's game that he blew, Like, yeah, his defense, Tampa 427 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:10,400 Speaker 2: did make stops on fourth down. Right, we talked about 428 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 2: the regression that was coming for Washington. It showed up. 429 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,119 Speaker 2: They did have the regression on the fourth down and 430 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 2: they got the stops. And you know, there was a 431 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:19,879 Speaker 2: bunch of different times that Baker could have taken a 432 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 2: lead by four points. Right, they had that four point 433 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:23,719 Speaker 2: lead he fumbles up. 434 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 1: They should have won this game by double digits, like, 435 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:32,359 Speaker 1: honest to god, as well as Jaden played, he ran, 436 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:36,640 Speaker 1: he threw, he converted at least outside of the red zone. Yeah, 437 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:40,600 Speaker 1: but it was seventeen thirteen. The Bucks had just stopped 438 00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 1: the Commanders in the red zone on fourth down from 439 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 1: the goal line, and they were starting to dominate that game. 440 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,119 Speaker 1: Bucky Irving was starting to dominate that game. Baker was 441 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,399 Speaker 1: finding Mike Evans whenever he wanted Mike Evans to the 442 00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 1: point where they had to take Marshawn Lattimore off of 443 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 1: Mike Evans start double teaming him. They were going to 444 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,159 Speaker 1: go up twenty four to thirteen when they got the 445 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 1: ball back and Baker fumbled. Like the defense mainly looked 446 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 1: good for the Commanders because the Commander's offense engineered so 447 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 1: many long, freaking drives. The time of possession was eleven 448 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 1: minutes in Washington's favorite and they had twenty five more plays. 449 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,159 Speaker 1: If you dig into the stats on this game, Baker 450 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,919 Speaker 1: was fifteen of eighteen with the yards per attempt of 451 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:34,960 Speaker 1: nine and a half. Like, what worries me about this 452 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,320 Speaker 1: is what is Jared Goff going to do to this defense? 453 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 2: I mean, he might do well, honestly though. The fear 454 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:43,600 Speaker 2: for me is the running game of That's why I 455 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:46,120 Speaker 2: think this number makes sense when it's moved so high 456 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:48,800 Speaker 2: above seven again once again protecting against tezers and everything 457 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 2: like that, this is going to be and everyone's parlay. 458 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 2: Why would like Chads is breaking down you? Why would 459 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:58,280 Speaker 2: Detroit lose this game, right, they are arguably the best 460 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,199 Speaker 2: running team of football going against the Commanders team that 461 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,560 Speaker 2: I mean, we know the deal. They can't stop the run, 462 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 2: Like you said, they did really well early on stopping Bucky, 463 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,359 Speaker 2: but once the game gets into the second half and 464 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,680 Speaker 2: they're worn out that front line, you can run the 465 00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 2: ball in Washington. Now, you know, we're in a different 466 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:17,400 Speaker 2: stratus for at this point, especially if you know Montgomery's back. 467 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,400 Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, it's the ultimate combos So that's why 468 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,200 Speaker 2: I understand the move. But to me, it's really all 469 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,679 Speaker 2: about the fourth downs and that's what I'm banking here, 470 00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,040 Speaker 2: bet in this summer where it's this game is basically 471 00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:30,640 Speaker 2: to come down to both sides and what they can 472 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,399 Speaker 2: do on fourth downs. And you know, James Daniels, I 473 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 2: don't there's no one on Detroit's front seven that can 474 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 2: stay with him and stop him. Like they don't have 475 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 2: that X factor that can slow him down and kind 476 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,639 Speaker 2: of change the game with what we've seen Jane Daniels do, 477 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 2: which is he's so cool, common collective. You know exactly 478 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,360 Speaker 2: when to run, when to make the right pass, when 479 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:54,400 Speaker 2: to make the right read. And you know we knew 480 00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,639 Speaker 2: going to that game that whoever made the mistake was 481 00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 2: going to lose. He was the vet in that game, right, 482 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,240 Speaker 2: Like you just said, Baker with that fumbo stupid. But 483 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,120 Speaker 2: the really dumb bonehead to play by Baker was him 484 00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:05,879 Speaker 2: trying to run the ball himself, say hand it off 485 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,639 Speaker 2: the Bucky again stopped on that short what was that 486 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,439 Speaker 2: second and one or third and one? And then they 487 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:11,480 Speaker 2: get stuffed the next play. 488 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 1: Right in the next play, the center snapped it right, 489 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 1: anybody ready ready, and so the whole thing was blown up. 490 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:22,119 Speaker 2: And like again, that's a veteran team making those stupid 491 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 2: mistakes and clutch moments. On the flip side, Jane and 492 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,160 Speaker 2: Daniels once again, two minute drill drove the field whatever 493 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 2: that was, four minutes left in the game, ate all 494 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,680 Speaker 2: the clock up, perfect drive, sailed it with a field goal. 495 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,119 Speaker 2: It's you know, we talk all the time, there's just 496 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 2: certain guys that you've never seen it before and you 497 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 2: have to adjust to it. And like Chad just said, 498 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 2: he got lucky. Jane Daniels, he put us team in 499 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,919 Speaker 2: the best position, but we just broke it down. Baker 500 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,040 Speaker 2: lost that game. He was all set up for Baker 501 00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,439 Speaker 2: on multiple times to either close the game out or 502 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:52,640 Speaker 2: go up two scores and kind of put the nail 503 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 2: on the dagger right end that game and nail the 504 00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,320 Speaker 2: coffin and end that game. And you know he just 505 00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 2: didn't do it. On the flip side. As much respect 506 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,920 Speaker 2: we do have for Thisroit Detroit team, I mean, this 507 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:04,640 Speaker 2: is gonna shock people. I actually like the over two 508 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:06,880 Speaker 2: in this game. It's fifty five. It's a huge over. 509 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 2: But this is just everything about this game just scream shootout, 510 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 2: like there's nothing defensively. I know people are like, well, 511 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 2: look at their last game against the Vikings, aren't we 512 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 2: all in agreement? That was more about sam Donold than 513 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 2: anything else. Even if you break down that film, he 514 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 2: had guys open and you know that Jane Daniels ain't 515 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 2: going to miss those throws. I don't think this kid 516 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,959 Speaker 2: is just so poised. And you know the pros I 517 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 2: talked to that are betting against him in this spot. 518 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,199 Speaker 2: The reasoning in his sound right, it's really relying on 519 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 2: that offense to Detroit and the fact that they're they're 520 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 2: betting on what we bet on last week because it 521 00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 2: was a fourth down regression from that team in Washington, 522 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 2: which you know, we know it's gonna happen. Me and 523 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 2: chatted ready for that, But I also think, you know 524 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,679 Speaker 2: what he did last week? What were they were they 525 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 2: sixty percent? I've been on fourth down last week, but 526 00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,639 Speaker 2: that feels right rather than I think they're eighty percent 527 00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:57,840 Speaker 2: or something above that for the whole season, Like sixty 528 00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,919 Speaker 2: percent makes more sense. I saw special. Jane Daniels is 529 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,159 Speaker 2: so yeah for me in this matchup, Chad. I know 530 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,159 Speaker 2: it's crazy, but of all the games this week, this 531 00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:10,840 Speaker 2: one feels like not the most inflated line, but it 532 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:12,879 Speaker 2: really does. Of all the lines, like this is the 533 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 2: one that doesn't seem right to me at all. And 534 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,120 Speaker 2: you know the fact that you can get Jane Daniels 535 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 2: right now at plus three eighty plus four hundred a 536 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,280 Speaker 2: couple of books straight up to win this game, how 537 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,080 Speaker 2: do I not bet that? Like there is value there 538 00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 2: facing the Detroit team that has had issue stopping really 539 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 2: high powered offenses, and we've seen, you know, Lions are incredible. 540 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 2: The one game most recently they did lose to Josh 541 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,439 Speaker 2: Allen was a shootout. I think it was forty eight 542 00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 2: to forty two. And that's that's my envision if me 543 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,119 Speaker 2: and you are betting this Washington team. We think they 544 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,359 Speaker 2: could pull the upside off. That's where're gonna need this 545 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,160 Speaker 2: to be. It's going to be a forty to thirty three, 546 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,200 Speaker 2: forty to thirty five type of win for this Jane 547 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:52,359 Speaker 2: Daniels team. So yeah, I know it's a lot to 548 00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:54,200 Speaker 2: put on this rookie, but he's just different. And we've 549 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,719 Speaker 2: talked about it, so you know, could be in my words, 550 00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,160 Speaker 2: come next week, next Tuesday, if he just gets absolutely 551 00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:02,120 Speaker 2: rolled in this matchup. But I just after watching them 552 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,400 Speaker 2: back to back starts now against my own team now 553 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 2: in the playoffs, and it's just his confidence is pois, 554 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:09,479 Speaker 2: especially to close these games out. I have to come 555 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 2: to terms with this kid as a unique freak. He's 556 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 2: just one of the kinds. So to me, this is 557 00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:16,200 Speaker 2: a disrespectful line of Jane Daniels, And you know, I 558 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:17,720 Speaker 2: feel like we're getting a ton of value here just 559 00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 2: because there is so much love and respect for this 560 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:20,840 Speaker 2: Lions team show. 561 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:28,000 Speaker 1: I'm really surprised to hear this all from you, not 562 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 1: that you don't like the Lions at nine and a half, 563 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:35,199 Speaker 1: but that the Commanders would be your Simon says with 564 00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:36,399 Speaker 1: a rookie quarterback. 565 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:37,920 Speaker 2: But he did take the Eagles. 566 00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:38,480 Speaker 1: What's that? 567 00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:40,400 Speaker 2: So he did take the Eagles? 568 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:44,640 Speaker 1: But yeah, yeah, well, I mean it's just it's just 569 00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:47,840 Speaker 1: it's a hard one to swallow, it really is. 570 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's tough. I mean again, because we love the Lions. 571 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:54,120 Speaker 2: We've loved them all season chat I mean, deep down, 572 00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 2: do I really want them to lose here? No, it's 573 00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 2: this is the sleeper team for me, just like the 574 00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:00,200 Speaker 2: Buffalo that I want to win the Super Bowl. Their 575 00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,720 Speaker 2: fans deserve it. But when you go through their numbers, 576 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:06,360 Speaker 2: it's like they couldn't have picked a more trap team 577 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,560 Speaker 2: for this Detroit team, like everything they can do offensively 578 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:13,200 Speaker 2: and Washington is going to give major problems this Detroit defense. 579 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 2: And I just this is the dream scenario for me, 580 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:19,080 Speaker 2: Like a high scoring playoff game total of fifty five. 581 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:20,840 Speaker 2: I love it. And I love them taking the over 582 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,160 Speaker 2: here because you know me, I love under especially when 583 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,160 Speaker 2: it's above fifty, but not this one. Indoors track me 584 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 2: between these two teams, I can't wait. You're never gonna 585 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 2: feel comfortable either what side you're on this entire game. 586 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,560 Speaker 2: I could see the Troy gain up by seventeen at 587 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,480 Speaker 2: one point and we're still going to be like, you 588 00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 2: know what, we got a chance, Chad, we got a 589 00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:38,120 Speaker 2: chance covering this big one. 590 00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:39,720 Speaker 1: Well that's the thing. It's like the number is so 591 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 1: big and Jayden Daniels is such a wild card that 592 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 1: and they do go for it so frequently on fourth down. 593 00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:49,880 Speaker 1: The variance is just so much higher, Like the chance 594 00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 1: to score a lot of points is going to be there. 595 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:56,080 Speaker 1: That's I was not like immediately when I saw this 596 00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,760 Speaker 1: fifty five and a half, I'm like, oh, yeah, we're 597 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,960 Speaker 1: going to be on the under in this game. And 598 00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 1: so this is a completely This is like the alternative 599 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:13,800 Speaker 1: the opposite day Simon taking the huge rookie underdog and 600 00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,320 Speaker 1: the huge over basket. 601 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:17,680 Speaker 2: You know, it's gonna be a lot for me to 602 00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 2: take it over because I just I always want to 603 00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:21,920 Speaker 2: take under. So yeah, I really do have a vision 604 00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:23,720 Speaker 2: for this game. I'm hoping it pans out that way. 605 00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,880 Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams at the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are 606 00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 1: six point favorites. The total is forty three and a half. 607 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:34,080 Speaker 1: This is the Sunday afternoon game. It opened at five 608 00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:38,720 Speaker 1: and a half. It's bumped up to six. Executive decision Eagles. 609 00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:43,800 Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you 610 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 2: have your honors? Text cut, executive decision, Let's go. 611 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:54,560 Speaker 1: What I don't get is on November twenty fourth, the 612 00:30:54,640 --> 00:31:00,840 Speaker 1: Eagles were three point favorites on the road in LA. 613 00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:05,760 Speaker 1: So obviously we realize home field means a lot less 614 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:10,240 Speaker 1: in the NFL this year. But what bookmakers are basically 615 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:14,840 Speaker 1: saying by making this game six in Philly after making 616 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 1: it three in LA, is that LA's home field is zero. 617 00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:24,880 Speaker 1: There is no advantage to playing in LA. There is 618 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,280 Speaker 1: not even from a crowd perspective. Forget it. There's no 619 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:31,640 Speaker 1: advantage to practicing all week at home, to being in 620 00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:36,760 Speaker 1: your bed until Saturday night, to not traveling like there 621 00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:40,000 Speaker 1: is zero. There is not even a one point advantage 622 00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,400 Speaker 1: for the Rams to play in LA. That to me 623 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:45,160 Speaker 1: is what bookmakers are saying in this game. 624 00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:48,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, I wouldn't overact to it too much. So it's 625 00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:52,320 Speaker 2: also it's it's week to week with bookmakers, right, they're 626 00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 2: making the lines for that week. They don't really think 627 00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:57,920 Speaker 2: about the previous line and where the value was in 628 00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,800 Speaker 2: that for home field. And you know, to me, is 629 00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,880 Speaker 2: someone that had Green Bay power rate are just a 630 00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 2: little higher and a higher grade. Yeah, I have this 631 00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:07,880 Speaker 2: line at six and a half, so it's only a 632 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,920 Speaker 2: half point difference than what I had great on Green Bay. 633 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:14,600 Speaker 2: But I also think I'm my model and everything else 634 00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:16,600 Speaker 2: is kind of underrating this Egles team, which we can 635 00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,000 Speaker 2: dive into. You're of the sense that, you know, it 636 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:20,800 Speaker 2: feels like a lot of pros right now we're rating 637 00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:22,720 Speaker 2: this RAMS team, and I think it is because of 638 00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,240 Speaker 2: their model. And you know, we saw them come in 639 00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:27,200 Speaker 2: heavy on the six and a half when it opened 640 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,200 Speaker 2: on this RAMS team, and the book makers, like you said, 641 00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,080 Speaker 2: immediately moved to five and a half, took some Egles 642 00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:33,760 Speaker 2: of money, bumped up to six, and now they're moving 643 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:35,560 Speaker 2: a couple of books our backup to six and a half. 644 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:39,600 Speaker 2: So it could be the sense of the public and 645 00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:41,840 Speaker 2: the pros early on we're thinking, you know, that's great 646 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,560 Speaker 2: value on the Eagles, and me and you are hoping 647 00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:46,520 Speaker 2: they're going to get caught here because I'm with you. 648 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,360 Speaker 2: I love this Eagles team. I think this is what 649 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 2: we love in the playoffs. Of team in first round 650 00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:57,520 Speaker 2: doesn't look that good because of expectations, and people hold 651 00:32:57,520 --> 00:32:59,560 Speaker 2: that against in the next round, and a team that 652 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,160 Speaker 2: people didn't think we're gonna win or be that good 653 00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:04,520 Speaker 2: gets a little overrated because of what they did in 654 00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:07,440 Speaker 2: their previous game. And I think we both had the 655 00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 2: same view of that Vikings game that, yes, that first 656 00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,840 Speaker 2: drive by Stafford Vin Didge Stafford, I thought they were 657 00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:17,760 Speaker 2: gonna win that thirty five to ten or something like that. 658 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,080 Speaker 2: He was just gonna pretty close. Yeah, put up a 659 00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:23,280 Speaker 2: ton of points. But when you go into it that offense, 660 00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,120 Speaker 2: you know, take away the defensive touchdown. They put up 661 00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:28,960 Speaker 2: twenty points against that Vikings defense in which they should 662 00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:32,080 Speaker 2: have dominated, like they had that team on their heels 663 00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:34,520 Speaker 2: basically the whole game. They had a good field position 664 00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,560 Speaker 2: basically the whole game because they had sacked Darnold about 665 00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:38,760 Speaker 2: nine times in that game, had a bunch of turnovers. 666 00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:42,920 Speaker 2: So you dive into the numbers. Is Higbee really that 667 00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:46,720 Speaker 2: important to the Rams because those first two drives when 668 00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,080 Speaker 2: he was in there, they looked incredible moving the ball. 669 00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:52,280 Speaker 2: Five targets, five catches, Yeah, and then he leaves and 670 00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,440 Speaker 2: it kind of falls apart. Puka had nine targets, He 671 00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:58,560 Speaker 2: had five catches for forty forty yards. Cooper Cup What 672 00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:01,720 Speaker 2: has happened to Cooper Cup, Like, I mean, there's tons 673 00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 2: of jokes going around the internet, but I don't know 674 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:05,240 Speaker 2: what the hell is real, what's going on there. But 675 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 2: he had one catch for twenty nine yards Cooper Cup 676 00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:09,560 Speaker 2: in that game. 677 00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:13,120 Speaker 1: That it's not like a great catch though, yeah it 678 00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:13,800 Speaker 1: was a great. 679 00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:17,480 Speaker 2: Catch, but it's just bizarre where it's like something something 680 00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:19,600 Speaker 2: is off. We talked about going into something's been off 681 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,440 Speaker 2: about Stafford in this offense for weeks now, and they have, 682 00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:24,719 Speaker 2: you know, becoming in these playoffs. They had moved to 683 00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:27,840 Speaker 2: a defensive team, So maybe I am underrating their defense 684 00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,359 Speaker 2: too much, But I do think that was just about 685 00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 2: Sam Donald. Like the dude was holding them the ball 686 00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:36,360 Speaker 2: for over four or five seconds in his pocket. Me 687 00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,600 Speaker 2: and you watched him all season. Hell, I lost so 688 00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:40,719 Speaker 2: much money on him early in the year. I was 689 00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,480 Speaker 2: obsessed with Sam Donald watching that offense. And I did move. 690 00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:45,920 Speaker 2: I turned it around and gave them a ton of credit. 691 00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:48,239 Speaker 2: But that Sam Donald we saw these last two weeks, 692 00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:50,000 Speaker 2: That's what I thought the season was gonna be with him. 693 00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,160 Speaker 2: Like this guy who holds onto the ball too long, 694 00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,239 Speaker 2: He's indecisive in the pocket, he is not comfortable in 695 00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:57,879 Speaker 2: the read and reading the offense. That was not him 696 00:34:57,880 --> 00:34:59,960 Speaker 2: for this season. He was so comfortable, so confident, that 697 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,880 Speaker 2: pass heavy offense. You know, we just what happened these 698 00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:05,960 Speaker 2: last two games is bizarre. And that's we talk all 699 00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:08,480 Speaker 2: the time, that's the mental side of football, right and 700 00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:12,480 Speaker 2: we see that especially here with Sam Darnold. And we 701 00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:14,239 Speaker 2: do want to give credit to the Rams defense. They 702 00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:17,480 Speaker 2: did play really well. The Eagles are a different beast 703 00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:21,560 Speaker 2: and now you have Okay, they weren't even home, right, 704 00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:24,160 Speaker 2: they're in Arizonas they have to fly home on Monday, 705 00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:26,960 Speaker 2: back to LA on our short week, now fly out 706 00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:29,560 Speaker 2: east to come play in Philly, and what's going to 707 00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:32,360 Speaker 2: be a thirty degrees game that starts at three pm, 708 00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:34,640 Speaker 2: so gonna end up being a night game at one point. 709 00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,800 Speaker 2: And you know that's not the best spot for Stafford 710 00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,000 Speaker 2: in these exact situations. I mean, if you go through 711 00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,000 Speaker 2: even this season, not that they've had an easy schedule, 712 00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:45,080 Speaker 2: but he never really had to play outdoors in the 713 00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:48,480 Speaker 2: cold and basically any game this year. And you just 714 00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,040 Speaker 2: I still think in my mind too, I came to 715 00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,000 Speaker 2: the season thinking I had Stafford from years past. We've 716 00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,040 Speaker 2: just seen it's just different, Like Stafford is not the 717 00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:58,440 Speaker 2: guy he was of the past. They are a different 718 00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,719 Speaker 2: offense and they want to do be a run heavy, 719 00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:03,799 Speaker 2: front first type of team with Williams, which makes sense, right, 720 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,279 Speaker 2: that's part of their identity. But we've seen these two 721 00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:10,839 Speaker 2: teams play earlier this year. Eagles, you know, they put 722 00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:12,719 Speaker 2: up thirty seven. I know, if you look back, you 723 00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:16,000 Speaker 2: see the Rams put up twenty one. Of that last 724 00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:18,279 Speaker 2: touchdown they scored in the final minute, it really was 725 00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:22,320 Speaker 2: thirty seven to twelve. Like that was not by any metric, 726 00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,600 Speaker 2: even that close of a game anyway, So I do 727 00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:28,200 Speaker 2: think the publics are raiding and it's just a great 728 00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:30,319 Speaker 2: matchup once again for this Eagles team, like they if 729 00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:32,560 Speaker 2: they want to lean on the run here they can 730 00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:35,960 Speaker 2: do it. This is a very young, talented, very talented 731 00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:38,439 Speaker 2: front line of the Rams. Well, they are very young, 732 00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,720 Speaker 2: and we've seen they struggle against really good run dominant 733 00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:45,680 Speaker 2: teams this season. So yeah, for me, if this was 734 00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,799 Speaker 2: in La Indoors, I probably would have a different grade 735 00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:51,040 Speaker 2: on this number. But the fact that we're getting the 736 00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:53,759 Speaker 2: Eagles at home in this exact spot, I just love 737 00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:56,480 Speaker 2: the Eagles defensive role and shock another game. I like 738 00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:58,160 Speaker 2: the under here. I just I just can't see the 739 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,080 Speaker 2: Rams putting up any type of points and Eagles to me, 740 00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:03,200 Speaker 2: will just be run heavy. I know people don'tant to 741 00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:04,759 Speaker 2: hear they want to hear it Jalen Hurts throwing the 742 00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,560 Speaker 2: ball twenty five thirty times, but there's just no there's 743 00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:09,000 Speaker 2: gonna be no need for in this matchup. You just 744 00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:10,839 Speaker 2: gotta lean in your strength here with the run game, 745 00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:13,719 Speaker 2: and just just feels like another twenty five to ten, 746 00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,000 Speaker 2: twenty four to ten type of win for this Eagles team. 747 00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,239 Speaker 2: It's just I just can't see how the Rams put 748 00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,520 Speaker 2: up multiple grid drives against this Eagles defense. Where the 749 00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:24,600 Speaker 2: Eagle strength is that secondary and that's to me, that's 750 00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,280 Speaker 2: the strength of this Rams team with Cooper and Pooka, 751 00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:29,279 Speaker 2: and it's just not been that way this later half 752 00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:31,879 Speaker 2: of the season. So yeah, I'm with Chattier. I love 753 00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,240 Speaker 2: this Eagles. I honestly would bet it up to seven. 754 00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,600 Speaker 2: So even if you're like, my only book is only 755 00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:38,479 Speaker 2: shown six and a half, I still would take that number. 756 00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:40,520 Speaker 2: I still think there's value there. But we just talked 757 00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:42,760 Speaker 2: about it. If you want to do teasers, there's plenty 758 00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:45,200 Speaker 2: of good options this week to tease as well. 759 00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:48,440 Speaker 1: RAMS had one cold game this year. I don't know 760 00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,560 Speaker 1: if you remember it. I do. It was the New 761 00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:55,160 Speaker 1: York Jets, and I believe, yeah, I believe we were 762 00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:55,440 Speaker 1: on the. 763 00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:58,360 Speaker 2: Jets and the under. That was a good undergame, and 764 00:37:59,239 --> 00:37:59,600 Speaker 2: it was the. 765 00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:02,719 Speaker 1: Game I think, I think where Jeff Ulbrick consistently went 766 00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:05,680 Speaker 1: forward and fourth down in a game where it was clear. 767 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:08,960 Speaker 2: From right. I do remember that. 768 00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, any number, if he had twelve points, he was 769 00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:13,799 Speaker 1: going to win the game. And of course he went 770 00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:16,719 Speaker 1: forward and fourth down every opportunity, including on his own 771 00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:21,600 Speaker 1: thirty and they end up losing. The number is the 772 00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:27,439 Speaker 1: last time the Eagles played the Rams. Freakish. Yeah, four 773 00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,240 Speaker 1: hundred and eighty one total yards, seven yards per play. 774 00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:33,840 Speaker 1: The Eagles had five sacks. Don't forget. That was the game. 775 00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:38,920 Speaker 1: Saquon ran for two hundred and fifty five yards. I 776 00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:43,640 Speaker 1: am not going to be fooled by the Rams dominance 777 00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:51,280 Speaker 1: against the Vikings. When the Eagles are so physically dominant, 778 00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:55,479 Speaker 1: their offensive line is not the Vikings offensive line. Their 779 00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:59,000 Speaker 1: defensive line, as good as the Vikings defense is, is 780 00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:06,120 Speaker 1: not the Vikings defensive line. These are physical, aggressive, really 781 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:12,320 Speaker 1: powerful line of scrimmage opportunities for the Eagles to dominate. 782 00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:16,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, and amazing stat from Evan Stafford's only outdoor game 783 00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:20,640 Speaker 2: forty degrees or quarter since twenty twenty one, So twenty 784 00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:23,160 Speaker 2: twenty one that Jets game, so like he just never 785 00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:26,160 Speaker 2: plays outdoors in the cold, and Jad just broke that game. 786 00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:28,759 Speaker 2: If you go back and watch that Jets game, they 787 00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,160 Speaker 2: won that game thirty different ways. They basically wear the 788 00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:34,680 Speaker 2: offense for the RAMS team, basically just giving them short 789 00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:36,920 Speaker 2: fields time and time again. They're not gonna have that 790 00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:40,160 Speaker 2: same scenario here against this Eagles team, who is well coached, 791 00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:43,799 Speaker 2: doesn't do stupid plays like that. And you know, as 792 00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:46,560 Speaker 2: you just broke it down, they have gotten better this 793 00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:49,080 Speaker 2: RAMS team defensively, but you have to go back and 794 00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:51,040 Speaker 2: look at the competition they've done it against. Now they're 795 00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:52,960 Speaker 2: going against ar wab Be, the best run team of 796 00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,839 Speaker 2: football with the best pass defense in football, and it's 797 00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:59,000 Speaker 2: just a really perfect matchup for this Eagles team. Honestly, Like, 798 00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:03,040 Speaker 2: I actually, as an Eagles fan, wanted Sam Donald, but 799 00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:04,880 Speaker 2: after watching that Rams game, I'm just as happy to 800 00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:06,839 Speaker 2: get them. They're just I don't think they're the same 801 00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:09,000 Speaker 2: team as they were even two years ago. Right, They're 802 00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,880 Speaker 2: just I think Stafford's in a much different stage of 803 00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:12,360 Speaker 2: his career. 804 00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:15,000 Speaker 1: AJ Brown even at one hundred yards in a touchdown 805 00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:17,719 Speaker 1: in that game, the last time he was truly inspired. 806 00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:25,440 Speaker 1: But boom, boom bam, Simon. A lot of things went 807 00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:30,719 Speaker 1: sideways over the weekend, coaching misshaps, bad calls by officials, 808 00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:33,520 Speaker 1: Kansas City being given a bye week, But the biggest 809 00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:38,320 Speaker 1: impact on performance was simple comfort levels. The Bills and 810 00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:41,960 Speaker 1: Ravens looked incredibly comfortable and rolled the victory, and just 811 00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:47,360 Speaker 1: last night the Rams made Sam Donald almost criminally uncomfortable 812 00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:50,360 Speaker 1: and it was a disaster because when you're not comfortable, 813 00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:53,960 Speaker 1: you can't do anything properly. Our friends with Tommy John's 814 00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:57,239 Speaker 1: Tommy John don't need to be on the headsets and 815 00:40:57,280 --> 00:41:00,160 Speaker 1: they don't need to check the replay to see professional 816 00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:03,560 Speaker 1: level comfort. And with a special sale for our listeners, 817 00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:08,120 Speaker 1: you can enjoy the comfort Simon and I experience from 818 00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:11,719 Speaker 1: head to doe to toe. Join the comfortable men and 819 00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:16,600 Speaker 1: women who've left thousands of five star reviews raving about 820 00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:22,040 Speaker 1: Tommy John as they enjoy maximum comfort. Simon, why will 821 00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:26,120 Speaker 1: you be wearing more Tommy John in twenty twenty five? 822 00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:28,240 Speaker 2: Because comfort is king. 823 00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:32,120 Speaker 1: Right Now you can shop Tommy john dot com slash 824 00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:35,640 Speaker 1: favorites and get twenty five percent off your first order. 825 00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:39,719 Speaker 1: Save twenty five percent at Tommy john dot com slash Favorites. 826 00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:45,799 Speaker 1: That's Tommy john dot com slash Favorites. I saved the 827 00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:49,880 Speaker 1: best for last. Baltimore at Buffalo. 828 00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:53,160 Speaker 2: Good afternoon everyone. This is Van Miller and the road 829 00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:54,200 Speaker 2: to the Super. 830 00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,040 Speaker 1: Bowl goes through Orchard Park. 831 00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:56,279 Speaker 2: New York. 832 00:41:56,440 --> 00:42:01,600 Speaker 1: It's playoff time. It is bedlam, it isium, it is 833 00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:07,920 Speaker 1: fan noemodium, it is fantastic. Depending on where you look, 834 00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:11,000 Speaker 1: Buffalo is a one point favorite and the total is 835 00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:13,080 Speaker 1: fifty one and a half. This game is at six 836 00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:17,160 Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern on Sunday Night. It's all over the place, 837 00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:21,120 Speaker 1: though Some places have the Bills minus one. Other places 838 00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:25,040 Speaker 1: the Ravens minus one. I've seen the bills as high 839 00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:29,640 Speaker 1: as plus one and a half. You know. On Sunday Night. 840 00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:33,480 Speaker 1: Producer Gifford was very upset after the show because he 841 00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:36,120 Speaker 1: thought you and I were fighting when you said you 842 00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:41,000 Speaker 1: liked the bills, and I thought it was overreacting to 843 00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:48,480 Speaker 1: the to the Bill's victory, And so are we still fighting? 844 00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:51,440 Speaker 1: Who do we trust the most in this game? Lamar 845 00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:53,560 Speaker 1: or Josh. 846 00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:56,000 Speaker 2: No, I think the line's been drawing the sand. You 847 00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:59,000 Speaker 2: think Lamar's the MVP. I think Josh's MVP. You love 848 00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:02,359 Speaker 2: this Ravens team, love this Bills team. There's no there's 849 00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:04,640 Speaker 2: no fighting. We're just two men with two different opinions, 850 00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:09,680 Speaker 2: and someone's going to be right, someone's going to be wrong. Chad. 851 00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:14,120 Speaker 2: I'm seeing basically every book has the Ravens as a favorite. 852 00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:17,880 Speaker 1: So yeah, it's possible. It's updated. Like, yeah, to be fair, 853 00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:21,160 Speaker 1: I got caught up doing something before the show began. 854 00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:23,480 Speaker 1: Normally I'm checking all the lines right before we come on, 855 00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:25,640 Speaker 1: and the last time I checked them was like ten 856 00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:28,680 Speaker 1: o'clock this morning. So it's very possible that right now 857 00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:32,080 Speaker 1: the Bills are no longer the favorite and they are 858 00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:33,279 Speaker 1: now an underdog of one. 859 00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:36,239 Speaker 2: Hey, you're a squirrel. You're forging for nuts before the show. 860 00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:39,440 Speaker 2: I get it. But this line is there's the truth. 861 00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:44,160 Speaker 1: I am starving and I didn't eat before the show 862 00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:45,360 Speaker 1: and it was a mistake. 863 00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:48,120 Speaker 2: No, that's I never eat before the show. You think 864 00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:52,600 Speaker 2: better when you're hungry. It's truely true. It is. Look 865 00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,400 Speaker 2: at it this line, honestly, Chad, I told you this 866 00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:57,719 Speaker 2: is what was going to happen. I really knew that 867 00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:00,359 Speaker 2: this was gonna flip, just because I know you thought 868 00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:03,840 Speaker 2: that public was over overacting to the Bills game, but 869 00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:06,240 Speaker 2: in my mind, it was like they're going to overact 870 00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:09,359 Speaker 2: to that Ravens game like that was. I mean, Derrick 871 00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:12,359 Speaker 2: Henry just looks like the ultimate game changer. Like that, 872 00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:14,400 Speaker 2: people in their mind are going to say, this is 873 00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:16,960 Speaker 2: what Lamar needed to get him over the hump of 874 00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:20,720 Speaker 2: a Josh Allen or the Chiefs. Right, this is the difference. 875 00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:23,560 Speaker 2: You got Derrick Henry, the ultimate game changer him and 876 00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:25,360 Speaker 2: him and Lamar are the one two punch. And I 877 00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:27,200 Speaker 2: mean you touch on a little bit. You said to me, 878 00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:29,480 Speaker 2: aren't you scared that the Bills won't be able to 879 00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:32,239 Speaker 2: stop it? Yeah? Of course. Like I mean, if you 880 00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:35,200 Speaker 2: go back and watch the first time they played, I 881 00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:37,400 Speaker 2: think the first carrier or whatever it was, might have 882 00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:40,080 Speaker 2: been the first quarter, like Derek Henry was busting this 883 00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:43,200 Speaker 2: insane run for a touchdown, just grown man shit. And 884 00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:46,600 Speaker 2: I get where you're coming from with this Ravens team, 885 00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:49,239 Speaker 2: and public and professionals agree with you. We've seen this 886 00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:51,520 Speaker 2: number flip now because so much money has come in 887 00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:54,440 Speaker 2: on this Ravens team, and this is exactly where I 888 00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:56,759 Speaker 2: want to be. I'm getting now the Bills as a 889 00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,960 Speaker 2: home dog. This is what I wanted and nothing shame 890 00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,480 Speaker 2: true me. It's like this is the exact spot, like 891 00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:05,640 Speaker 2: this Bill's locker room being told they're a dog here, 892 00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:10,319 Speaker 2: Josh Allen being a home dog. You know, Evan or 893 00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:12,600 Speaker 2: maybe it was Matt Mitchell our slack was talking in 894 00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:15,480 Speaker 2: our slack that this is the first time since nineteen 895 00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:20,440 Speaker 2: seventy the Bills are a home dog in the playoffs. 896 00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:22,840 Speaker 1: Its first first time. I think Matt Mitchell put this 897 00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:25,319 Speaker 1: in the chat. Isn't this the first time they've ever 898 00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:27,200 Speaker 1: been a home dog in the playoffs. 899 00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:29,600 Speaker 2: I just told you since nineteen seventy, I. 900 00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:33,279 Speaker 1: Know, but I think that's the beginning of their That's 901 00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:35,000 Speaker 1: our first home playoff game, I believe. 902 00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:39,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, So this is pretty pretty special, unique opportunity here, Chad, 903 00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:43,799 Speaker 2: and does Lamar deserve that type of respect? Yes, we 904 00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:45,640 Speaker 2: just broke it down. This man might be the three 905 00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:51,840 Speaker 2: time MVP should be. He's got arguably the best running 906 00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:54,080 Speaker 2: back or second best running back in all football, and 907 00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:57,799 Speaker 2: Derrick Henry and you know we talk they have all 908 00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:03,360 Speaker 2: pros across the defense. Like you know, Rakewan and Hambleton 909 00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:07,520 Speaker 2: are just the ultimate combo for that defense. And you 910 00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:09,920 Speaker 2: know we've seen them now in this second half really 911 00:46:09,960 --> 00:46:12,640 Speaker 2: make a huge adjustment and just get so much better. 912 00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:15,520 Speaker 2: But I told you, I just can't get over the 913 00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:18,239 Speaker 2: fact that if Josh Allen has the ball and the 914 00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:21,280 Speaker 2: opportunity to go win this game, I have the ultimate 915 00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:24,320 Speaker 2: faith of him in this exact spot where Lamar Chad, 916 00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:26,520 Speaker 2: I just do not. I do not if he needs 917 00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:28,799 Speaker 2: to have a final drive to make you know, a 918 00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:30,880 Speaker 2: winner take all type of moment for Lamar in this 919 00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:32,520 Speaker 2: playoff in this spot, I just don't have the faith 920 00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,560 Speaker 2: in him. So this one really is tough because the 921 00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:36,480 Speaker 2: number you can throw it out right, we both know 922 00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:39,520 Speaker 2: it's like one and a half. If this game does 923 00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:41,440 Speaker 2: come down to one team winning by one, I'll eat 924 00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:45,319 Speaker 2: my fucking words. But this this game feels like, you know, 925 00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:47,839 Speaker 2: either a field goal to a touchdown type of win 926 00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,520 Speaker 2: where it's it's going to be one team kind of 927 00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:53,120 Speaker 2: dominating the other team, kind of getting a late late 928 00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:56,080 Speaker 2: driver or a back door here. And when I really 929 00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:58,960 Speaker 2: dive into it, yes, the numbers are not great for 930 00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:01,200 Speaker 2: this Bills team, especially against a type of team that 931 00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:03,960 Speaker 2: this Ravens team is. But I just keep keep going 932 00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:05,680 Speaker 2: back to the fact that it's Josh Allen as a 933 00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:08,439 Speaker 2: home dog in this exact spot. And if you look 934 00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:11,480 Speaker 2: at the Action app, the Action app, no one believes 935 00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:13,600 Speaker 2: in them. It's all the money. All the tickets right 936 00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:16,560 Speaker 2: now are all Baltimore. So I just love this spot. 937 00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:19,240 Speaker 2: This just feels like the perfect spot to back the Bills. 938 00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:23,920 Speaker 2: And my dream scenario Bills win big, dominate, Chiefs look bad. 939 00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:26,600 Speaker 2: They go to Kansas City as somehow a road favorite. 940 00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:29,560 Speaker 2: Mahomes is a home dog and Arrowhead Like, that's my 941 00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:31,799 Speaker 2: dream set up right now if you're trying to get 942 00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:36,360 Speaker 2: there with this Chiefs team. So yeah, I can't believe 943 00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:37,840 Speaker 2: that they are up TI plus one and a half, 944 00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:40,440 Speaker 2: this Bill's team right now as a home dog, So 945 00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:43,120 Speaker 2: I can't help it that much. 946 00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:45,799 Speaker 1: It makes no sense to bet them at one, like 947 00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:49,520 Speaker 1: you might as well bet them on the money line, right. 948 00:47:51,400 --> 00:47:54,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, we're like we talk all the time, like if 949 00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:57,879 Speaker 2: you are scared off by the number, it's a good 950 00:47:57,880 --> 00:47:59,160 Speaker 2: tease number, and now I can get them up to 951 00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:00,920 Speaker 2: seven or if you do a and a half point teaser, 952 00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:03,359 Speaker 2: you get up to seven and a half. So, like 953 00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:06,840 Speaker 2: I said, though on Sunday night, I could easily be 954 00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:09,000 Speaker 2: flipped on this game if the if that had gone 955 00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:11,160 Speaker 2: with Chat thought, Chat thought, what do you think the 956 00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:13,200 Speaker 2: Bills would be a two point favorite at this point 957 00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:14,000 Speaker 2: or something like that? 958 00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:16,279 Speaker 1: Well, they, I think they they It was one and 959 00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:19,319 Speaker 1: a half when we spoke, they had been two, and 960 00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:22,480 Speaker 1: I thought it might go back to two because I 961 00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:25,520 Speaker 1: thought people would overreact to the Bills. 962 00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:27,359 Speaker 2: And to me, that would have been great because then 963 00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:29,560 Speaker 2: we are getting a little more yes across the key 964 00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:31,480 Speaker 2: number of two, and that's where I would have been happy. 965 00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:33,520 Speaker 2: So to me, this is all about the number and 966 00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:36,479 Speaker 2: who I have trust in. And these are the best 967 00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:39,319 Speaker 2: games because it is a game where you know, not 968 00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:42,560 Speaker 2: that my model can't figure this one out, but it's 969 00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:45,440 Speaker 2: like you got to throw it out. This is the 970 00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:48,840 Speaker 2: most human part of sports betting at this point, because 971 00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:51,520 Speaker 2: it is who do you trust? Which quarterback do you 972 00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:53,799 Speaker 2: trust at the end of this game? And you want 973 00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:55,680 Speaker 2: to dive into all the numbers, all the numbers. I'm 974 00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:57,719 Speaker 2: telling you people, I dove into all of it. It 975 00:48:57,760 --> 00:49:00,279 Speaker 2: favors a team that's six all pros on in Baltimore, Like, 976 00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:03,479 Speaker 2: there's a reason this team is an absolute juggernaut where 977 00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:06,000 Speaker 2: the Bills, you know, they were left for dead. That's 978 00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:08,280 Speaker 2: why again I want to give MVP to Josh Allen. 979 00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:10,439 Speaker 2: They don't have that across They don't have a bunch 980 00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:13,360 Speaker 2: of studs across the board. Right, They're a team that 981 00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:15,680 Speaker 2: has just been thrown together and it works like that. 982 00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:17,920 Speaker 2: I can't wait to go in the off season really 983 00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:20,880 Speaker 2: break down. It was the offensive line dominant for the 984 00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:23,840 Speaker 2: Bills or was that once again all Josh Allen? Because 985 00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:26,799 Speaker 2: how great they are now running down team's throats at 986 00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:29,440 Speaker 2: the end of the games. How Josh Allen never takes sacks. 987 00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:33,600 Speaker 2: It's just been incredible, how this nameless front line, how 988 00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:35,960 Speaker 2: this Bill's offense has done it. We're on the flip side, 989 00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:38,680 Speaker 2: Ravens are the same thing. They're a nameless offensive line. 990 00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:42,520 Speaker 2: They've been dominant all season. So yeah, this is, in 991 00:49:42,640 --> 00:49:44,799 Speaker 2: my opinion, probably the best game we're going to get 992 00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:46,840 Speaker 2: in the playoffs until the super Bowl. Like, it doesn't 993 00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:48,560 Speaker 2: get much better than this. These are two teams that 994 00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:50,279 Speaker 2: Jenny even said the top of the show, like no 995 00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:53,440 Speaker 2: one's talking about the Chiefs. Everyone's talking about Bills or 996 00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:57,000 Speaker 2: Ravens super Bowl at this point. So I love it. 997 00:49:57,040 --> 00:49:59,440 Speaker 2: This is this is my favorite part about betting playofootball. 998 00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:02,319 Speaker 1: You are, I'm very fired up about this game. It's 999 00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:08,239 Speaker 1: the best and I am. It feels suckerish to be 1000 00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:10,240 Speaker 1: betting the Ravens right now. 1001 00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:13,360 Speaker 2: Is the sucker has been winning this year, brother, I know, 1002 00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:16,640 Speaker 2: don't let that scary off. I mean, being a sucker 1003 00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:18,439 Speaker 2: has been paying big this year. 1004 00:50:18,520 --> 00:50:20,279 Speaker 1: Part of me feels like I'm waiting to bet this 1005 00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:25,719 Speaker 1: game live because whoever scores the first touchdown the other 1006 00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:29,919 Speaker 1: team is likely to be an underdog of more than one. 1007 00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:33,440 Speaker 2: But these teams are who they are. Chat where the Ravens, 1008 00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:35,480 Speaker 2: I mean Stucky's bet. It feels like every week is 1009 00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:38,839 Speaker 2: him giving us Ravens first half right, and it's been 1010 00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:42,000 Speaker 2: me banging you over the head about it doesn't matter 1011 00:50:42,080 --> 00:50:44,920 Speaker 2: what the score is. You take Josh Allen the second half. 1012 00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:48,480 Speaker 2: He's just been it's been incredible. I think that's another 1013 00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:50,879 Speaker 2: Evan stat, right is he fifteen to two Evans second 1014 00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:53,800 Speaker 2: half against the spread. It's something insane like that this season. 1015 00:50:54,040 --> 00:50:56,960 Speaker 2: So that to me is the biggest thing here where 1016 00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,399 Speaker 2: It's like that's another reason I have confidence in Josh Allen. 1017 00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:04,600 Speaker 2: If this game is Ravens thirteen, Bills ten and half, Chad, 1018 00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:07,640 Speaker 2: I honestly think you're dead. You're dead if you have 1019 00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:11,200 Speaker 2: the Ravens. If this is Ravens by two scores, if 1020 00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:13,359 Speaker 2: they're up by ten and a half, I think that's your 1021 00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:16,200 Speaker 2: best chance as somehow pulling off this win if you're 1022 00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:18,439 Speaker 2: the Raves team. Because to me, if this is three 1023 00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:21,239 Speaker 2: points or less, Josh Allen's gonna get them the second half. 1024 00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:24,879 Speaker 2: He's just been so dominant and the adjustments defensively by 1025 00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:26,719 Speaker 2: this Bills team has been great in the second half. 1026 00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:28,520 Speaker 2: So that's why I do love this matchup for this 1027 00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:29,120 Speaker 2: Bills team. 1028 00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:33,880 Speaker 1: Ravens are minus half a point first half. 1029 00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:37,920 Speaker 2: Can't beat that value. That's good value. 1030 00:51:38,320 --> 00:51:40,000 Speaker 1: That feels like a good one to play, right. 1031 00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:43,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's nice because I thought they would give them 1032 00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:46,319 Speaker 2: the just the bump that Lamar gets in these first halfs, Like, 1033 00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:48,680 Speaker 2: even if he's not a big favorite in the game, 1034 00:51:48,719 --> 00:51:50,239 Speaker 2: that a lot of times they've just been hanging two 1035 00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:52,359 Speaker 2: and a half three first half just because he's been 1036 00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:55,279 Speaker 2: that dominant. So yeah, that's actually pretty interesting. Tell by 1037 00:51:55,320 --> 00:52:00,080 Speaker 2: the books, they're given that number right, Yeah, fishy. 1038 00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:05,120 Speaker 1: It's fishy. Yeah, this one's tough. I don't have a 1039 00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:07,600 Speaker 1: conclusion here. I'm glad you didn't make it. Simon says, 1040 00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:09,080 Speaker 1: it's definitely. 1041 00:52:08,920 --> 00:52:11,160 Speaker 2: Time on it too, because I'm with you. This is 1042 00:52:11,200 --> 00:52:11,919 Speaker 2: a tough game. 1043 00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:15,120 Speaker 1: Tough game, really tough game. What do you think of 1044 00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:17,360 Speaker 1: the total? The total right now is fifty one and 1045 00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:18,759 Speaker 1: a half feels high to me. 1046 00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:21,680 Speaker 2: I know under, so I don't want to give it away. 1047 00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:23,799 Speaker 2: But once again, I'm on three unders and one over. 1048 00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:27,600 Speaker 2: So yeah, last week I couldn't find it over. I 1049 00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:31,239 Speaker 2: liked even even though Chad almost scared me off my 1050 00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:33,800 Speaker 2: rams back because the lucky did get over. But yeah, 1051 00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:36,239 Speaker 2: once once we got so many unders, I was like, 1052 00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:39,000 Speaker 2: now this everyone's just so tight right now in the 1053 00:52:39,000 --> 00:52:41,680 Speaker 2: playoffs and teams are just not forcing the ball, and 1054 00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:42,960 Speaker 2: I feel like the refs have been calling a lot 1055 00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:45,080 Speaker 2: of penalties. I'm know about you, but it feels like 1056 00:52:45,120 --> 00:52:48,000 Speaker 2: the refs too have been more involved in a lot 1057 00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:50,800 Speaker 2: of like not just holds, but a lot of stuff 1058 00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:53,720 Speaker 2: making the offense is kind of stagnate. That's that feels 1059 00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:55,399 Speaker 2: like we've had that with a bunch of games so far. 1060 00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:58,560 Speaker 2: So yeah, this I couldn't. I know, it sounds stupid 1061 00:52:58,600 --> 00:53:00,520 Speaker 2: because I'm betting over a fifty five and a half, 1062 00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:02,440 Speaker 2: but this one fifty one and a half. I have. 1063 00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:04,319 Speaker 2: This had forty eight and a half. So I think 1064 00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:06,160 Speaker 2: there's a ton of value on the under here, especially 1065 00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:08,600 Speaker 2: with these two teams that you know it's gonna be 1066 00:53:08,640 --> 00:53:10,759 Speaker 2: cold as hell up in Buffalo Chaw. This's gonna be 1067 00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:13,080 Speaker 2: a tight game with two run heavy teams. So I 1068 00:53:13,120 --> 00:53:15,080 Speaker 2: do like the clock to be running. This to be 1069 00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:15,680 Speaker 2: a low score. 1070 00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:18,239 Speaker 1: There was a I think it was the Bucks Commander's 1071 00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:21,080 Speaker 1: game where even though it was close a lot of 1072 00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:23,920 Speaker 1: the game and we had the Bucks, I didn't have 1073 00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:28,400 Speaker 1: that usual nervous pit in my stomach. And I think 1074 00:53:28,440 --> 00:53:31,359 Speaker 1: it's because the game just kept moving, like there weren't 1075 00:53:31,360 --> 00:53:33,880 Speaker 1: a lot of penalties. They just kept playing. It was 1076 00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:37,200 Speaker 1: really it was a really good game and really good football. 1077 00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:40,040 Speaker 1: Really just enjoyed it. One of the rare moments when 1078 00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:44,279 Speaker 1: I did watching the NFL this year, and I think 1079 00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:45,880 Speaker 1: the fact there weren't a lot of penalties and it 1080 00:53:45,960 --> 00:53:47,560 Speaker 1: just Kevi Roland was a big part of it. 1081 00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:49,520 Speaker 2: There's a good one, all right. 1082 00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:52,399 Speaker 1: Asthma and Miner, the favorite podcast is presented by Bet 1083 00:53:52,400 --> 00:53:55,279 Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three six five. 1084 00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:57,439 Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. 1085 00:53:57,440 --> 00:54:01,400 Speaker 1: When you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, 1086 00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:03,880 Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars, place the bet for five dollars to 1087 00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:06,240 Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those 1088 00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:09,080 Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, 1089 00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:12,319 Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary at Bet 1090 00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:15,680 Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older in 1091 00:54:15,719 --> 00:54:21,440 Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, 1092 00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:24,560 Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one 1093 00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:27,000 Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in 1094 00:54:27,040 --> 00:54:31,400 Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will be 1095 00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:33,360 Speaker 1: back with the next episode of The Favorites on the 1096 00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:37,880 Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page eleven am Eastern Thursday. To narrow 1097 00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:40,520 Speaker 1: it down even further, expand the menu. Whatever we're going 1098 00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:43,960 Speaker 1: to do on Thursday, maybe we'll have more intel that 1099 00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:48,279 Speaker 1: makes us feel differently about the Bills and the Ravens 1100 00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:54,920 Speaker 1: or The Chiefs and the Texans. Downloads from Spotify, Apple Pods, 1101 00:54:54,960 --> 00:54:58,040 Speaker 1: wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe this five stars, 1102 00:54:58,080 --> 00:55:00,239 Speaker 1: say whatever you want feedback as a gift. 1103 00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:01,279 Speaker 2: Love You. 1104 00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:14,319 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 1105 00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:17,120 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 1106 00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:20,240 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler