1 00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,080 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:23,120 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 2: Let's go back that a Supreme Court decision. We've been 7 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 2: waiting a number of rulings. We got one this morning. 8 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 2: The Supreme Court upholds curbs on treatment for transgender miner. 9 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 2: Judan Grassow Joints is here. She's a legal analyst at 10 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News. Here, Jude, I know it's a big court case. Here, 11 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 2: what did the court find? 12 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:45,480 Speaker 3: So this is basically expected from what we heard during 13 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 3: the oral arguments, and the court found that this Tennessee 14 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 3: law that bans gender firm and care for minors doesn't 15 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 3: violate the Equal Protection Clause. And the key is the 16 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 3: method of analyzing it, so. 17 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 4: It could be analyze. 18 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 3: These laws can be analyzed under a rational basis test 19 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:05,479 Speaker 3: or under a strict scrutiny test. 20 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 4: The rational basis test is much easier. 21 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:10,760 Speaker 3: You just have to show that there's a rational connection 22 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:14,039 Speaker 3: between the government's interests and the law, and that's what 23 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:15,960 Speaker 3: the Fifth Circuit did in this case. And then they 24 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:21,319 Speaker 3: found that the law wasn't didn't violate the equal protection claws. 25 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,839 Speaker 3: With the strict scrutiny test, which is what the trial 26 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 3: court used, you have to show that there is a 27 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 3: compelling government interest in having this law and that it's 28 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 3: narrowly tailored. So here the Supreme Court said, we don't 29 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:36,040 Speaker 3: have to use the strict scrutiny test. We're going to 30 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:40,759 Speaker 3: use the rational basis test, and under that law, under 31 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:43,400 Speaker 3: that kind of analysis, this law passes. 32 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 4: And that's you know, as I said, the rational basis 33 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 4: is a pretty easy test. Justice. 34 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 3: During the oral arguments, there were a lot of questions 35 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 3: and a lot of the Conservatives talked about how they 36 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 3: didn't this was not a question for the court. This 37 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 3: was a question for the lawmaker, and the lawmakers had 38 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 3: decided this. And so the Chief Justice in his opinion 39 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 3: in the last sentence, referred to that. He said, hold on, 40 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 3: I'm looking for it. It's one hundred and eighteen pages. I 41 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 3: don't know if I'll be able to find it. 42 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 4: At this point. 43 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 3: He said that this case carries with it the weight 44 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 3: of fierce scientific and policy debates about the safety, efficacy, 45 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 3: and proprietary of medical treatments, and so by the courts, 46 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:32,239 Speaker 3: the court's role is is just to dirt termine whether 47 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 3: it violates the equal protection clause. So we're leaving policy 48 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,799 Speaker 3: to the people. They're elected representatives and the democratic process. 49 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 3: Justice Soto Mayor wrote the dissent, and you know, she 50 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 3: was very heartfelt and concerned during the oral arguments about 51 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 3: you know, the fact that transgender people are about one 52 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:53,240 Speaker 3: percent of the population. And so the lawmakers who are 53 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 3: making these laws, she said, are not considering them. They 54 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 3: have no input, really have no voice, they have no voice. 55 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 4: So what law does this then leave in place? So 56 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 4: it leaves in place. 57 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 3: The Kentucky ban on gender firming care for minors, which 58 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:07,959 Speaker 3: other states have copied. 59 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 5: And so but in reality, what does that mean? So 60 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:14,800 Speaker 5: if you're under eighteen, you're not allowed to take steps 61 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 5: to change genders, right exactly transition, I should say. 62 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 3: It's a little bit of a complicated law. But under 63 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 3: any kind of gender firming care or firming care for 64 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:27,519 Speaker 3: gender dysphoria is not allowed. 65 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 4: If you're under eighteen. 66 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 3: So that even includes if your parents are on board 67 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 3: with it. So it eliminates a lot of the treatments 68 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 3: that are out there. 69 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 6: What are we still waiting form the Supreme Court? 70 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 3: Aunt, So we're still waiting for the birthright citizenship case, 71 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 3: which is, by the way, not going to rule on 72 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 3: whether the birthright Citizenship Executive Order that Trump put forth 73 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 3: is legal or not. It's going to rule on another 74 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 3: issue about nationwide injunctions. And we're waiting on the age 75 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 3: very garification for porn websites from Texas. 76 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 4: And let me see, we're also. 77 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 3: Waiting on how I have a list here of the 78 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 3: trans care that was a big one that we were 79 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 3: waiting for, the Universal the FCC's Universal Service Fund. 80 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 6: All right, so there's still a couple more. 81 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:18,359 Speaker 2: Thanks we're waiting for all right, excellent stuff, Drian Grass, 82 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us. Jean Grasso on 83 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 2: short notice on the Supreme Court cases. 84 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 6: Our legal analyst here for Bloomberger Newspaper. 85 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 86 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android 87 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 88 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 89 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:44,119 Speaker 5: Alex Delire alongside paulsw Need. This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. 90 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 5: We bring you all the top news and business, economics 91 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 5: and finance threat lens of our Bloomberg Intelligence folks. They 92 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 5: cover two thousand companies and in one hundred and thirty 93 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 5: industries all around the world. We are also following what 94 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:56,720 Speaker 5: is happening around the world. President Donald Trump declining to 95 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 5: say whether the US plans to join Israel's military offensive 96 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 5: on Iran, but had some pretty harsh words for Iran 97 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 5: and what he thought unconditional surrender meant, which. 98 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 4: Was He's had it. That's what he said, quote, I've 99 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:08,720 Speaker 4: had it. 100 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 5: Daniel Biman is director of the Warfare of Regular Threats 101 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 5: and Terrorism Program at the Center of Strategic and International 102 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 5: Studies and a professor at Georgetown University. Professor, what do 103 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:23,160 Speaker 5: you take that to mean? Unconditional surrender means I've had it? 104 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:23,720 Speaker 5: What is that? 105 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 7: It's unclear exactly what President Trump is looking for when 106 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 7: it comes to Iran. Obviously, he was trying negotiations and 107 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:38,599 Speaker 7: was frustrated by Iran's unwillingness to accept the US offer. 108 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 7: But what he actually hopes to accomplish through military threats 109 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 7: or perhaps military action. He still has not made clear. 110 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 2: What do you think the options are for the US 111 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 2: and its role potentially in that part of the world today. 112 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 7: So the United States could continue variations of what it's 113 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 7: doing right now, which is eighth israil but on the 114 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 7: relatively light side. So the US is already assisting with 115 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 7: air defense. There are news reports the US has assisted 116 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 7: with intelligence entron and helping resupply Israel as it runs 117 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 7: out of important munitions could be one role basically continuing 118 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,280 Speaker 7: what the US is doing, but it could also step 119 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 7: up pressure in lots of ways. One of the ones 120 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 7: being most discussed is using the US ordinance that is 121 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:28,920 Speaker 7: massive and specifically designed to go after sites that are 122 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:33,480 Speaker 7: deeply buried, and Iran's key nuclear site, Foordo, is literally 123 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:37,200 Speaker 7: inside a mountain, So joining that and using the assets 124 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 7: that really only the United States has to go after 125 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:43,480 Speaker 7: this and in so doing probably further devastating Around's new 126 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:46,720 Speaker 7: core program. And it could be even more ambitious than that. 127 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 7: Israel has attacked iran An infrastructure and especially a range 128 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 7: of military and energy targets, and if the United States 129 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 7: joined in that the goal might be to severely weaken 130 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 7: the regime for several years and perhaps even try to 131 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 7: lay the groundwork for regime change, although that's probably a 132 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 7: bridge too far. 133 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:07,040 Speaker 5: Yesterday on television, I was speaking with retired General Wesley Clark. 134 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 5: He's a retired US Army officer. He also was head 135 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 5: of NATO. There's a pre mall ed leader of NATO 136 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 5: for the West, and I wonder and he was pointing 137 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 5: out the three things that happen when you're in the 138 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 5: situation room, sort. 139 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 4: Of the means, the. 140 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 5: Ends, and he said something else the house I think 141 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 5: it is, or is how you do it, the means 142 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 5: with which you do it, and then with the end 143 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 5: goal is what is your level of confidence that those 144 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 5: three things are being given equal treatment right now? 145 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 7: So let me say two things that may seem to contradict, 146 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 7: but I think they're both true. One is, the US 147 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 7: has been preparing for this separation for really for decades. 148 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:50,119 Speaker 7: This is something that has been discussed over the years 149 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 7: by different administrations, and there's tremendous knowledge in the military 150 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 7: and intelligence community on how to target around and so 151 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 7: there's a lot of ability to cut to do this 152 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 7: reasonably well from a tactical sense, but there are a 153 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 7: lot of chaotic factors that are also in play here, 154 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 7: and one of the biggest is simply what the United 155 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 7: States is hoping to achieve from all this. Is it 156 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 7: simply bandwaggoning on what Israel's already doing. Does it have 157 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 7: different goals? And it's unclear to me how the process 158 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 7: is working in terms of who is giving the present advice, 159 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 7: how serious those people are in terms of what they've 160 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 7: thought through, and whether they've thought about some of the 161 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 7: long term consequences that are political as well as military. 162 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 2: Do we have any sense, Daniel, how the Uranians will 163 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 2: respond if the Americans were to aid these rules with 164 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 2: some offensive operations. 165 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:47,960 Speaker 7: So it's possible that the Irritians will recognize the overwhelming 166 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 7: might of American military forces and simply try to limitate retaliation, 167 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:55,880 Speaker 7: recognizing that they're going to receive a lot worse than 168 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 7: they're going to give, and the best they can know 169 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 7: for is just to hunker down. But no country likes 170 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 7: to frankly be bombed or take a beating and do 171 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 7: nothing about it, and they'll have strong political reasons to 172 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:10,959 Speaker 7: try to respond. A lot could be in the Middle East. 173 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 7: Ron has a strong presence in terms of paramilitary ties 174 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 7: and proxy groups in Iraq in particular, but also other states, 175 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:20,319 Speaker 7: and they'll go after US forces station there, they'll go 176 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 7: after the US personnel there. In the past, Ron has 177 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 7: also supported international terrorism and it is attacked targets around 178 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 7: the world. So these are definite possibilities. And then we 179 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,679 Speaker 7: have to accept that Iran is creative and might do 180 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 7: things we don't anticipate, that there are things that maybe 181 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 7: in its playbooks that we just don't know about. 182 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 5: This is an extremely unfair question. Is there a better 183 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 5: way to go around this? Like, no one thinks that 184 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 5: a nuclear iron is good. Everyone doesn't want that hands down. 185 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 5: What is a better way If we're not going to 186 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 5: get drawn into this on some military level and negotiations 187 00:09:56,160 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 5: aren't working, is there a third rail? 188 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 7: When we have negotiations backed by the threat of military force, 189 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 7: they're more likely to succeed. And Iran was moving towards 190 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:11,240 Speaker 7: some degree of acceptance of negotiations. It's just a question 191 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:14,319 Speaker 7: of what level of success the United States was willing 192 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 7: to have with negotiations. Having something similar to the Iran 193 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 7: deal that Present Obama signed, which basically froze Iron's program, 194 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 7: that was definitely in the realm of the possible and 195 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:27,520 Speaker 7: I think could be in the future, but Iran was 196 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:30,960 Speaker 7: drawing the line in terms of having some nuclear program. 197 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 7: It said, we are not going to give it up completely, 198 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 7: even if it's not a nuclear weapons program. Iran was 199 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:38,160 Speaker 7: also drawing the line when it comes to support like 200 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 7: proxy groups. So it's really a question of whether the 201 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 7: United States will accept limits on a deal risk in 202 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 7: other areas, or if it wants a much more absolute solution. 203 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 2: Daniel real quickly, thirty seconds left. Does the US have 204 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,199 Speaker 2: the military assets in place now where we need a 205 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:55,599 Speaker 2: few days and or weeks. 206 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:58,440 Speaker 7: So we have some in place now that can do 207 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 7: a lot of damage to Iran. We also have long 208 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 7: range strike capabilities, so we have aircraft that can fly 209 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 7: from totally from thousands of miles away, refuel in flight, 210 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 7: and do a lot of damage. But having another carrier 211 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 7: in the area certainly would help. 212 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 6: Daniel, thank you so much for your time. Really appreciate it. 213 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 2: Daniel Bimen, director of Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program 214 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:22,319 Speaker 2: at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, laying out 215 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:24,439 Speaker 2: the options for the US as we heard from President 216 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:27,839 Speaker 2: Trump earlier today on the South Lawn, as you said, 217 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 2: as you quoted him, he's had it, so I'm not 218 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 2: sure what that means, but it feels like a decision 219 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 2: will be coming from the US side, maybe sooner on 220 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:36,680 Speaker 2: than later. 221 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch US Live 222 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:45,319 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 223 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App, Listen on demand wherever 224 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch US Live on YouTube. 225 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 5: Something is confirmed when it comes to nip On Steel 226 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:57,840 Speaker 5: and US Steel. I'm still trying to understand if it's 227 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 5: a takeover, if it's a partnership, if it's a golden relationship. 228 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 5: I really couldn't tell you. But you know who Ken 229 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 5: Jod He's an economic estate craft reporter. He's also covered 230 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 5: the steel industry for many many years. 231 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:10,079 Speaker 4: Joe, what kind of. 232 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 5: Deal is this? 233 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:16,719 Speaker 8: Well, I mean, this is a takeover takeover. So the 234 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 8: decks just hit and I had a chance to look 235 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:21,680 Speaker 8: through them right before I got here. It's a fourteen 236 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 8: point one billion dollar deal, which is what was agreed 237 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 8: to in December of twenty twenty three, and an additional 238 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 8: eleven billion dollars in investments across the footprint of US Steel. 239 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:35,080 Speaker 8: Now here's the key thing. There's a golden share, and 240 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 8: what is now confirmed that I think is could be 241 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 8: considered by some troubling but also a hurdle for many 242 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 8: who are steel who are investors in nip On Steel. 243 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 8: The Golden share gives the President of the United States 244 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:54,240 Speaker 8: in perpetuity decision making abilities over a number of company 245 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 8: specific decisions that every company on planet Earth has to 246 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 8: make over periods of time, capital investments, decisions to layoff workers, 247 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 8: decisions to cut capacity, and then there's some basic ones 248 00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 8: like a decision whether or not they want to move 249 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 8: the headquarters and change the name. 250 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 2: I've never heard of a golden share type of mechanism. 251 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:16,680 Speaker 6: Have they been used? Has this been used before? 252 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,839 Speaker 8: Golden shares are not unusual outside of the United States. 253 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:22,559 Speaker 8: We see this in Europe, we do see this across Asia, 254 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,320 Speaker 8: but the United States takes a bit of pride in 255 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 8: the fact that it doesn't do golden shares. 256 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 6: Now. 257 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 8: Initially, Josh wing Grove and I are one of our 258 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,680 Speaker 8: White House reporters had been reporting in this golden share, 259 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 8: and the initial reporting we was getting we were getting 260 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 8: was that, well, the golden share isn't exactly a golden share, 261 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 8: it's more just some veto powers, but what has become 262 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 8: clear is the Golden share gives specific power to the 263 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:50,080 Speaker 8: President of the United States. There's all sorts of questions 264 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:51,679 Speaker 8: that I have there that I don't know if we 265 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 8: can get into right now, but I do think these 266 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 8: are the questions that investors in Nippon Steel are going 267 00:13:57,640 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 8: to have to be asking themselves. 268 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 5: Okay, here's the dumb one. Why did Nipon Steel go 269 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 5: for this? Like why spend fourteen billion dollars to have 270 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 5: your investment in the US run by the President of 271 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 5: the United States. 272 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:13,479 Speaker 8: I think it shows how much Nipon Steel needed this expansion. 273 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 8: The question the idea was if Nippon Steel didn't close 274 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 8: the US Steel deal, they would have to pivot. And 275 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 8: the pivot discussions among investors and analysts who've covered this 276 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 8: company four years said, well, maybe they're going to build 277 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 8: out more steel capacity in India. India is actually their 278 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 8: biggest footprint in terms of production, not Japan. But it 279 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 8: still left them without a foothold in the United States 280 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 8: and North America. And mind you, that is arguably the 281 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 8: most important steel market in the world. The automotive market 282 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 8: in the United States is unbelievably important for steel makers. 283 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 8: It is a crown jewel. If you are Arsener Middle, 284 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 8: if you are any Chinese company, you wish you could 285 00:14:55,920 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 8: be selling steel into the automotive industry. The margins on 286 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 8: that steal are incredible and the customers are solid gold. 287 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 8: You know that they're going to be taking shipments year 288 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:08,400 Speaker 8: in and year out. The deals that they make with 289 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 8: these guys are three year contracts. It's not just at 290 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 8: hoc So Nippon Steel. Now, they spent a lot, they 291 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 8: put a lot into it, but I think it said 292 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 8: how much the executives at Nippon Steel believed that the 293 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 8: future of Nippon Steele relied on getting this deal. Wow? 294 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 6: Was this deal subject to shareholder approval? 295 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 4: Yeah? 296 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:35,120 Speaker 8: Absolutely so the shareholders. Sorry, the merger agreement was signed 297 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 8: and agreed to back in April of twenty twenty four 298 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 8: by all the shareholders. The national security agreement that was 299 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 8: signed with the eleven billion dollar investment before twenty twenty 300 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 8: eight was not subject to that same shareholder So this 301 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 8: golden golden share did not come up for shareholder vote, right, 302 00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 8: not a direct vote. Interesting and there's a lot to 303 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 8: unpack around that. I mean, to some this deal's done. 304 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 8: The arms are probably going to be celebrating having a 305 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 8: few beers or enjoying their wife and kids for the 306 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 8: first time in a year and a half. But for 307 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 8: those of us who are in the steel market and 308 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 8: follow the steel market, it is going to be interesting 309 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 8: how the landscape morphs around all of these decisions. 310 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 5: Right, So, what is the biggest thing then that you're 311 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 5: watching for the trickle down of this kind of deal. 312 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 8: I want to see how Nippon Steel jumps into the market. 313 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 8: Are they going to start selling at below market prices 314 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 8: to gain market share? There is an argument to be 315 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 8: made that the doubling of steel tras that we saw 316 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 8: President of the United States announce in Pittsburgh three weeks 317 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 8: ago when he announced the deal, is actually because the 318 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 8: administration understands that by Nippon Steel getting this deal closed, 319 00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 8: they are a formidable opponent to New Core Corporation, which 320 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:59,120 Speaker 8: is the largest US steelmaker, and Steel Dynamics and cliffs. 321 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 8: But that also means you're bringing in a very viable 322 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 8: opponent who can continue to produce and increase their production 323 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 8: in their capacity that would hurt prices technically by putting 324 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:12,439 Speaker 8: in a higher tariff. 325 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 6: This fifty percent tariff. 326 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 8: You are on some level closing out most foreign imports, 327 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,640 Speaker 8: and therefore you're putting a floor on prices. That will 328 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 8: be interesting to see how it plays out. We're already 329 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 8: in a tough situation in the steel market right now. 330 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 8: It's a cyclical moment. Obviously, the entire trade tariff situation 331 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:34,359 Speaker 8: going on is problematic, even in the steel industry. I 332 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 8: think that's the first thing we're really going to have 333 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 8: to focus on, all right, Joe, thanks so much, appreciated, 334 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 8: Jodee Bloomberg Metals and. 335 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:45,479 Speaker 5: Mining economic Stakecraft, reporter Economic Stakcraft. It's a totally new 336 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 5: section within Bloomberg talk about metals and mining and all 337 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 5: the risks that come with it, the economics with it exactly. 338 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:56,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 339 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 340 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 1: Oti with the Blue Work Business app, Listen on demand 341 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:06,640 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 342 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 5: June is Pride Month, So over the next couple weeks 343 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 5: we're going to highlight segments that on topics related to 344 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,600 Speaker 5: a quality and today we decided to speak to Kevin Tilsey, 345 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 5: a founder and CEO of GEO Academies. The organization's focused 346 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 5: on helping to break the cycle of poverty through access 347 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 5: to education. Super pressing topic right now. Hey, Kevin, can 348 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:28,119 Speaker 5: you walk us through specifically what your company does? 349 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 9: Okay, thanks for having me. GEO stands for Greater Education 350 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:37,679 Speaker 9: Opportunities Foundation, and what we do is we we're a 351 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:42,680 Speaker 9: nonprofit and we support and manage and start public open 352 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 9: enrollment charter schools in the country. We're in Louisiana and 353 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 9: Indiana right now and headed to Ohio. 354 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 2: Give us a talk to us about our Describe one 355 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 2: of your schools, like what grade levels and kind of 356 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:56,600 Speaker 2: what's the focus. 357 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:00,879 Speaker 9: What we're most known for, first of all, kindergarten through 358 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:04,920 Speaker 9: twelfth grade. But we take a very business like approach 359 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 9: to what we do in the sense that we believe 360 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 9: in spending the money most effectively and efficiently for each 361 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 9: student's needs. And there's nothing in the law anywhere in 362 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 9: the country that says all you can get with K 363 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,680 Speaker 9: twelve dollars is a K twelve education. So we're best 364 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 9: known for students graduating from our high school with a 365 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 9: full associate degree. That's two years of college. That's already 366 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 9: paid for by us, earned by them. We're also, i believe, 367 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,679 Speaker 9: the only network in the country where students have actually 368 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 9: graduated having earned a full bachelor's degree before graduating from 369 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 9: high school. 370 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:43,919 Speaker 5: How does school choice benefit the US workforce and how 371 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,399 Speaker 5: does that align to the DOE. 372 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,840 Speaker 9: Well, I think we're completely aligned with the current US 373 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:55,159 Speaker 9: Department of Education's goals of preparing students for success, to 374 00:19:55,200 --> 00:20:01,720 Speaker 9: be successful citizens in the community. When I use the 375 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 9: term college, that's a universal umbrella name that I put 376 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,639 Speaker 9: for both college and career. And what we're trying to 377 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 9: do is get our students to graduate not only from 378 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 9: high school and not just to go to college, but 379 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:20,399 Speaker 9: to complete college. And to say that we have a 380 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:22,600 Speaker 9: problem in the United States is a bit of an 381 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 9: understatement when it comes to college completion, and it's not 382 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 9: necessarily because of lack of money. The US Department of 383 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:36,399 Speaker 9: Education's biggest job is to loan money for kids to 384 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:40,200 Speaker 9: go to college, so they do student loans. You've probably 385 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 9: been following the student loan forgiveness program under the previous administration. 386 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 9: The reality is the US Department of Education and frankly, 387 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 9: all the states across the country have either pel grants 388 00:20:54,400 --> 00:21:01,640 Speaker 9: or loans or college scholarship programs, in most they're a failure. 389 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 9: We have students borrowing money or getting money who have 390 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:12,400 Speaker 9: absolutely no college experience whatsoever. And so does that make 391 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:16,400 Speaker 9: any sense. If you're an employer and you're hiring somebody 392 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 9: to come take a job, the very first thing and 393 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,840 Speaker 9: employers going to ask is what's your experience? But when 394 00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:28,600 Speaker 9: it comes to college loans or grants, PELL grants, FASPA, 395 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 9: which you've probably heard of, the Federal Student Loan program, 396 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 9: even in state grant programs, there's no question on there 397 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:38,080 Speaker 9: that asks what's your college experience? And you may say, well, well, 398 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 9: these are high school kids, why should they have college experience? Well, 399 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 9: many schools across the country are doing dual credit and 400 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:49,159 Speaker 9: dual enrollment now. So if you know that you're going 401 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 9: to need a grant or a loan by the time 402 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:54,439 Speaker 9: you graduate from high school, maybe you ought to be 403 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,199 Speaker 9: getting some of that college experience while you're in high school. 404 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:01,160 Speaker 9: And then the loan and grant folks or the officers 405 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 9: that are reviewing the opportunity, they would have a question 406 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 9: there that says, do you have any college experience? 407 00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 7: Right? 408 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,159 Speaker 9: How did you do so? That when they're borrowing that money, 409 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 9: the borrower knows what they're getting into. Makes sense to. 410 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 2: Me, Kevin, what's the economic model for geo academies? 411 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:23,119 Speaker 9: We try not to rely on philanthropy. We focus one 412 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 9: hundred percent on using the public tax dollar, the federal 413 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,719 Speaker 9: and local and state dollars at every traditional public school gets, 414 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 9: and we just try to get as much education as 415 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 9: possible for each of our students. We do need philanthropy 416 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,960 Speaker 9: to start the school, but after we get it up 417 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:43,919 Speaker 9: and running, we are self sustaining. 418 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 5: Really great stuff. Good luck, really appreciate it. What actually 419 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 5: is your biggest hurdle right now before we let you go. 420 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,360 Speaker 9: I think the biggest hurdle is getting adults to understand 421 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 9: that when we get kids that graduate with an associate 422 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:03,240 Speaker 9: degree or bachelor's degree, that that is a great start 423 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 9: to their career and their lives and it benefits all 424 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,720 Speaker 9: of us. Believe it or not, there's some adults out 425 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:15,399 Speaker 9: there that think kids in high school should enjoy high school. Well, 426 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:19,240 Speaker 9: in many cases that's okay, But in the student population 427 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 9: that I'm serving, which is Gary, Indiana, Indianapolis, and Baton Rouge, 428 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,880 Speaker 9: very low in community, low income communities, These kids are 429 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 9: ready to rock and get going. They don't have time 430 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 9: to sit around and enjoy the traditional high school. They 431 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:35,879 Speaker 9: want to get busy with their life. 432 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:36,720 Speaker 6: They want to get. 433 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:41,199 Speaker 9: Moving and earning an income and you know, being successful. 434 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 5: All right, really great story. Thank you so much, Kevin Telsey. 435 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 5: We wish you all the luck for that in all 436 00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:51,560 Speaker 5: your endeavors. He is the founder and CEO Geo Academics. 437 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:56,879 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 438 00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts live each weekday, 439 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 1: ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 440 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 441 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 442 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:13,960 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal