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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: All the work, all.

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Speaker 3: The talk, all the handicapping is done.

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Speaker 2: It's time for history. They're all in line. We're ready

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Speaker 2: for this time.

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Speaker 4: They're in the Breakness rank.

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Speaker 3: Another two legs more back to win win wind on

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Speaker 3: the turn beginning clip pickup drive near the bank of

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Speaker 3: the pack.

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Speaker 4: As the field turns for home, Hendy burst on and

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Speaker 4: opening on the other side's trying to first drive as

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Speaker 4: they come to the final prolong kick fling on what

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Speaker 4: drove down to the.

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Speaker 1: Line that a possible result here last break this Hello

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Speaker 1: and welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel.

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Speaker 1: I'm Sean Zerrilla, joined today by Mike Samach and Mike

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Speaker 1: Conti to help you break down the one hundred and

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Speaker 1: forty eighth running of the Preakneck Stakes, going to post

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Speaker 1: at six fifty four pm on Saturday. We're gonna break

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Speaker 1: down the second duel, the Triple Crown, also take a

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Speaker 1: look at the Black Eyed Season Stakes on Friday, and

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Speaker 1: the Guy's favorite undercard bets for both Friday and Saturday.

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Speaker 1: But we're going to jump right into things talking about

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Speaker 1: this edition of the Preakness, which in my lifetime might

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Speaker 1: be the weakest edition of the Preakness ever one runner

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Speaker 1: coming back from the Derby. Typically you see about three

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Speaker 1: to five and seven new shooters coming in here going

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Speaker 1: into the Derby. I said, this was, by speed scores,

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Speaker 1: one of the slowest Derbies in recent memory. And now

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Speaker 1: you have basically all of those horses except for the

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Speaker 1: Derby winter Mage not running back in this race, so

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Speaker 1: a slower crop probably going against Mage contending for this race.

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Speaker 1: Mage was a fifteen to one post time underdog, I

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Speaker 1: believe at the Derby when it closed eight to five

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Speaker 1: coming in here for the Preakness. I'm going to toss

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Speaker 1: it to Mike Sawmich first because he was all over

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Speaker 1: Mage in the Derby. Hope he cashed some tickets using

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Speaker 1: that Mage was my initial reaction when I watched tape,

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Speaker 1: and somehow over the course of the week talked myself

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Speaker 1: out of it, probably because he had never raced as

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Speaker 1: a two year old and just thought he needed more experience.

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Speaker 1: Happened underneath, not on top, but Mike Sammich I agree

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Speaker 1: or disagree with the fact that this is one of

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Speaker 1: the weakness Preakness fields in a while. And how do

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Speaker 1: you see Maje shaping up into this race relative to

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Speaker 1: where he was in a derby, Do you think he's

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Speaker 1: ready to take another step forward?

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Speaker 3: Definitely agree with you. On one of the weaker Preakness

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Speaker 3: fields that we've seen, I think there's a couple reasons

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Speaker 3: for that. First off, this this crop had a lot

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Speaker 3: of defections prior to the Derby. If we talked about,

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Speaker 3: you know, the top ten horses we were looking at

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Speaker 3: in December of last year, really only fourte was the

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Speaker 3: one who ran in the Derby, or was trying to

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Speaker 3: run in the Derby obviously ended up scratching out there

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Speaker 3: as the favorite.

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Speaker 1: So you lose those horses.

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Speaker 3: And then on top of that, we had these essentially

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Speaker 3: three horses that drew in that probably would have been

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Speaker 3: in the Preakness had they not drawn into the Derby,

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Speaker 3: So that took some of those horses out as well.

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Speaker 3: Man Are and Hero really the one you can point

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Speaker 3: to and say, hey, he was planning to be here,

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Speaker 3: but because he ended up in the Derby, ended up

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Speaker 3: not here in the Preakness. So yeah, we don't have

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Speaker 3: a wonderful field here. But at the same time, it's

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Speaker 3: a very interesting betting race. You brought up Maje specifically

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Speaker 3: only started four times in his career. This is going

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Speaker 3: to be the fifth start coming off of by far

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Speaker 3: his best race of his career. That Kentucky Derby was

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Speaker 3: absolute phenomenal and if you have not watched it and

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Speaker 3: focused on age, it is one hundred percent worth doing.

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Speaker 4: So.

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Speaker 3: He did everything on his own around the far turn.

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Speaker 3: He only got hit once down the stretch by Castellano.

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Speaker 3: The big question for me, and it's something that I've

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Speaker 3: been grappling with for the last week. Can we expect

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Speaker 3: that type of performance again in just two weeks? And

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Speaker 3: it's really does Maje bounce meaning regress off of that

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Speaker 3: Derby or will Mayge run rap back to that race,

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Speaker 3: Because to be honest, if he runs back to that Derby,

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Speaker 3: they're all running for second. So it's really a question

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Speaker 3: of how do you handle that two week turnaround and

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Speaker 3: do you think Mage is able to quickly bounce back

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Speaker 3: from that race? In my mind, I don't think that

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Speaker 3: Derby took that much out of him, which is wild

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Speaker 3: to say because it was that good of a race.

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Speaker 3: But we'll see what happens here first within the Preakness.

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Speaker 3: If he can get through here, should be interesting, should

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Speaker 3: be a lot of fun to have a triple.

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Speaker 1: Crown on the line at Belmont. So Mage came out

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Speaker 1: from slightly off the pace in that race, and Mike

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Speaker 1: CONTI I want to start talking about how we envision

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Speaker 1: the pace for the Preakness field of eight instead of

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Speaker 1: field to twenty. I think we typically get an honest

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Speaker 1: pace in the regardless of whether there are early speed

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Speaker 1: horses in there, just because somebody inevitably is going to

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Speaker 1: send to the front. Looking at the time for m

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Speaker 1: us pace projector for this race, they have the number

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Speaker 1: four Coffee with Chris out on the lead, along with

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Speaker 1: the number one National Treasure and the number eight first mission,

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Speaker 1: I would expect National Treasure with John Velaskaz on board

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Speaker 1: to be out on the lead because that's where he

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Speaker 1: likes to be. Mage, the number three and the number

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Speaker 1: six perform in that second flight, the number two and

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Speaker 1: the number seven in the third flight, and then the

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Speaker 1: number five Red Route One coming from all the way

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Speaker 1: in the back. I don't necessarily think there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of speed in this race. Frankly, if looking at pps

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Speaker 1: I think Mage might have the best early speed in

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Speaker 1: this race. Going back a few races, so, Kanti, how

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Speaker 1: do you see the pace planning out? I want to

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Speaker 1: get Mike's Mike Smitch's thoughts as well on the pace,

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Speaker 1: but I actually expect a slower pace and I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: be looking for horses who are near the front.

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Speaker 2: I agree, right.

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Speaker 4: It's also interesting and kind of ironic because we sat

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Speaker 4: here two weeks ago and said, no one knows, right,

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Speaker 4: the biggest question is going to be the pace in

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Speaker 4: the derby, and what did we get. We got the

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Speaker 4: fastest half mile derby time in the history, and so

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Speaker 4: you ask yourself, then, okay, well, like clearly somebody wanted

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Speaker 4: to go. I agree right that I do think that

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Speaker 4: the fore coffee with Chris is probably going to be

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Speaker 4: the horse that goes. On paper time form pace figures

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Speaker 4: the whole nine yards looks like that that horse will go,

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Speaker 4: And frankly, I think it's the only chance that he

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Speaker 4: has to win is to go and try to somehow

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Speaker 4: gate to wire this field. That being said, right, there's

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Speaker 4: been a ton of hype around first mission, the eight

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Speaker 4: post in a field of eight right, being on the outside,

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Speaker 4: that's fine. If anything, it's actually will help him to

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Speaker 4: sit the trip that he wants you mentioned National Treasure.

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Speaker 4: He will also be much more forwardly placed as he's

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Speaker 4: been in most of his starts. The question for National

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Speaker 4: Treasure is what type of trip does he get? Because

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Speaker 4: if you go back and look at and watch the

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Speaker 4: replay of that Santa Needa Derby, I've watched it multiple times,

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Speaker 4: there's two things that you need to watch with National Treasure.

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Speaker 4: From that Santa Needa Derby, it's the far turn. The

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Speaker 4: horse has to almost come to a complete stop because

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Speaker 4: he's boxed in. He can't go anywhere. And for everybody listening,

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Speaker 4: what you need to understand about horses, you're talking about

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Speaker 4: half ton plus animals like to go from thirty plus

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Speaker 4: miles an hour and put on the brakes to call

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Speaker 4: it ten fifteen twenty miles an hour, and then to

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Speaker 4: re engage and try to pick that speedback up.

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Speaker 2: It's not an easy thing to do.

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Speaker 4: So if you watch the far Turn and National Treasure,

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Speaker 4: he's got to stop, and you watch the last sixteenth

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Speaker 4: of a mile of that Santa Nita Derby and you

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Speaker 4: see that he really finds his footing again and you're like, Okay,

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Speaker 4: this horse has talent. It's also we also should note

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Speaker 4: right this horse is a National Treasure? Is a Bob

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Speaker 4: Bafford horse. Bafford obviously was serving the band for the

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Speaker 4: Derby and Churchill Downs. We now have a Bafford horse

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Speaker 4: coming back in the Preakness. You know, is this just

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Speaker 4: one of those situations where the Bafford horse is the

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Speaker 4: one that's most prime, most ready, most talented. At four

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Speaker 4: to one, I'm willing to take that shot.

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Speaker 1: Saw much. How do you see the place bang out

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Speaker 1: relative to Kanti? Is National Treasure or horse he might

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Speaker 1: be interested in just because you could see him being

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Speaker 1: at the front of a slow pace.

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Speaker 3: National treasure is the million dollar question in this race

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Speaker 3: to me, because if you go back and you look

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Speaker 3: at his past performances, he probably is the fastest horse

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Speaker 3: in this field. However, he has not gotten the lead

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Speaker 3: since his debut race. That's not really his fault. Though

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Speaker 3: he faced cave Rock twice at two. Cave Rock was

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Speaker 3: probably the fastest horse in this crop early, so he

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Speaker 3: was never getting the lead over him, especially since he

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Speaker 3: was a stable mate. Came back and ran against four

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Speaker 3: other Bafferts in the Sham, you weren't going to see

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Speaker 3: him get the lead there either. And then that's sandy

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Speaker 3: to Derby. The Kanti reference, they went fast. I mean

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Speaker 3: they went twenty two and change forty six and change.

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Speaker 3: National Treasure was sitting right off of that. He was

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Speaker 3: three wide versus practical move being on the rail. And

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Speaker 3: now with this rail draw, I don't see how you

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Speaker 3: don't try and send National Treasure. He is faster than

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Speaker 3: coffee with Chris if he wants to be The last

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Speaker 3: was on Baffert's. Consistently he has gone to the front

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Speaker 3: in these Triple Crown races. I think it's National Treasure's

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Speaker 3: pace to control. He has not done that since his

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Speaker 3: maiden breaking score, though, which makes it a little more

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Speaker 3: difficult to try and actually project that. But if he

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Speaker 3: does control the pace, National Treasure is wildly dangerous in

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Speaker 3: this race. He would save ground, he'd be able to

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Speaker 3: go his own speed. He has no distance issues. As

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Speaker 3: Kanti reference. There in the Sanity de Derby he got

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Speaker 3: cut off and then he kept going. That's a big

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Speaker 3: sign that a horse doesn't mind that added distance. So

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Speaker 3: I think National Treasure is a huge threat here, specifically

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Speaker 3: because he drew the rail. I think that was the

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Speaker 3: best possible place for him to draw, because it limits

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Speaker 3: the options that John Velasquis has aboard. He has to go,

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Speaker 3: He has to send this horse. He doesn't want coffee

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Speaker 3: with Chris to cross over. As long as he wins

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Speaker 3: the race into the first turn, which he should be

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Speaker 3: able to, he controls the pace and becomes a huge problem.

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Speaker 1: For the rest of this field. Starting to get an

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Speaker 1: idea for where you guys might be leaning for your

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Speaker 1: top wing contenders in the race. But let's back up

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Speaker 1: for a second. It is a field that so you

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Speaker 1: don't need to cut too many horses from your tickets,

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Speaker 1: but if you're looking to include the number three mage

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Speaker 1: at his odds, you probably need to get rid of

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Speaker 1: a few of them. If you're talking about exotics. I

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Speaker 1: mentioned the pace of the race, the number two chase,

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Speaker 1: the chaos fifty to one probably coming from that third

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Speaker 1: flight of horses, curious if you guys think he's a toss,

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Speaker 1: and then also the number five red route one coming

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Speaker 1: all the way from the back in what I expect

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Speaker 1: to be a slower pace if you think he has

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Speaker 1: a chance to hit the money, So just give me

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Speaker 1: a couple of numbers each. Horses that you're probably not

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Speaker 1: going to include on tickets, and I want to see

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Speaker 1: blindly if there's a consensus between you two in terms

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Speaker 1: of horses we can toss CONTI lead it off.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so you mentioned a couple of them, right, Number

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Speaker 4: two Chase the chaos toss. I mean the horse has

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Speaker 4: only run on a dirt track once and it wasn't

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Speaker 4: even a fast dirt track. Has spent the majority of

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Speaker 4: his career on poly. The numbers don't add up, you know.

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Speaker 4: The last two he's not even been remotely close, frankly,

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Speaker 4: and he was the favorite at post time in his

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Speaker 4: last race and ran a clunker the four Coffee with Chris,

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Speaker 4: great story. Local horse just not up to the same

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Speaker 4: caliber as these.

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Speaker 2: Frankly.

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Speaker 4: You mentioned number five Red Route one another one you know,

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Speaker 4: could he pick up pieces late? Sure you want to

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Speaker 4: use him in a superfective? And fourth I'd be okay

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Speaker 4: with that as a win contender.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely not.

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Speaker 4: Those are the three that I would lean towards passing

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Speaker 4: at this point. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So leaving the number six performing there at fifteen to one,

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Speaker 1: that was a horse coming from that second flight that

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Speaker 1: I think might be able to get into it based

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Speaker 1: on the pace. Loan Samich, give me your tosses.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going to toss the two in the four

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Speaker 3: as well. Contie explain that very well. Two long shots

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Speaker 3: who I think are just in over their head here

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Speaker 3: in this spot for me. The other toss and this

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Speaker 3: is a horse I've been against for a while and

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Speaker 3: I've been enjoying being against him. Is the seven horse,

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Speaker 3: Blazing seven who I think is going to take some

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Speaker 3: money here. Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz, the connections are going

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Speaker 3: to get that. All we're going to hear about on

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Speaker 3: the broadcast is how Chad Brown points toward the Preakness.

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Speaker 3: This is his race. Blazing Sevens doesn't want two turns.

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Speaker 3: He doesn't want this distance. If you go back and

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Speaker 3: you look at his one major win, it was a

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Speaker 3: one turn mile in the slop. It was a Grade

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Speaker 3: one at Aqueduct, although it was pretending to be Belmont

258
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Speaker 3: that day, and the pace absolutely collapsed and that's why

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Speaker 3: Blazing Sevens was able to pick up the pieces there

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Speaker 3: going that mile. This is just a great horse to

261
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Speaker 3: leave off those trifectas, leave off those super fectus because

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Speaker 3: he is going to get bet in this spot. I

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00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:28,839
Speaker 3: think he has zero chance of winning. I think he

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Speaker 3: has a very low probability of even hitting the board.

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Speaker 1: Chad Brown winning the Preaknous last year with early voting.

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Speaker 1: I was on that horse. That was a nice cash

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Speaker 1: for me. He's also won it in the past with

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Speaker 1: cloud computing. But I agree Blazing sevens I think an

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Speaker 1: interesting horse to go against considering the price point. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk about your a's, your horses who you're definitely using

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Speaker 1: on top in multi rays tickets, on top of your exotics,

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Speaker 1: horses that you think are the true wing contenders. We've

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Speaker 1: alluded to it, the number one National Treasure, the number

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Speaker 1: three Maje, and maybe the number eight First Mission. I

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00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,480
Speaker 1: was leading to eight based on my early handicapping of

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Speaker 1: this race. Guys, how deep are you going in terms

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Speaker 1: of your A horses here and who's your top blink contender?

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Speaker 3: Well, I'll kick it off here, man. I think that

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00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:14,600
Speaker 3: Mage is going to be awfully tough here. The more

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Speaker 3: you watch back the Derby, the more you watch back

281
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Speaker 3: the Florida Derby, either of those races probably beat this field.

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Speaker 3: And we don't need to progress here to be able

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Speaker 3: to win. We just need to run back to what

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Speaker 3: we've been able to do. If you go back and

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Speaker 3: look at that Kentucky Derby. Specifically, one of the keys

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Speaker 3: that I talked about going to that race was can

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Speaker 3: Mage break well? Mage broke fine, They just went really

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Speaker 3: fast up front. Maje actually ran a forty eight second

289
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Speaker 3: half mile in that race, but was in sixteenth place

290
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Speaker 3: because of how fast they went early. I don't think

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00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:43,880
Speaker 3: they go that fast early, which puts Mage in a

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Speaker 3: perfect spot. And if Maje is sitting there two lengths

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Speaker 3: off the lead, three lengths off the lead, this thing's over.

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Speaker 3: I think Maje is able to absolutely romp at that point.

295
00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:54,800
Speaker 3: It's a lot easier to bet Mage at eight to

296
00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:56,520
Speaker 3: five if you had him at fifteen to one than

297
00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:58,000
Speaker 3: it is if you missed him at fifteen to one.

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Speaker 3: You have to come back at eight to five. So

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00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:01,360
Speaker 3: for me makes my life a little bit easier in

300
00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:03,600
Speaker 3: that front. The only other horse I'm gonna be using

301
00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:05,800
Speaker 3: in multi tickets is National Treasure. I think that's the

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00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:07,560
Speaker 3: one horse that has the shot of going gate to

303
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Speaker 3: wire here, and the price I think is going to

304
00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:11,760
Speaker 3: be right. I think Blazing sevens takes some money. You

305
00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,079
Speaker 3: mentioned first Mission on the outside. That's gonna be the

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00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:16,040
Speaker 3: buzz horse that's gonna be the one everyone tries to

307
00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:19,160
Speaker 3: take a shot against Maje with, and for me that

308
00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:21,360
Speaker 3: means I'm gonna try and take a shot against that horse,

309
00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:23,439
Speaker 3: because I would much rather have a little bit bigger

310
00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:25,400
Speaker 3: of a price with a horse I think control the

311
00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:28,080
Speaker 3: pace in National Treasure than a horse like First Mission,

312
00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:30,439
Speaker 3: who yeah, looked great last time. Totally get that was

313
00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:34,480
Speaker 3: able to run down on Gravyan line late. But how

314
00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:36,720
Speaker 3: good do we really think that race was. I mean,

315
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Speaker 3: I'm not sure that I'm convinced that that's the type

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00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:43,440
Speaker 3: of race that wins this race today, and National Treasure

317
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Speaker 3: I think is more dangerous on the front of than

318
00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:47,920
Speaker 3: Arabian Lion was that day, and I think Maje is

319
00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:49,640
Speaker 3: better than anyone coming from the back of the pack.

320
00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:51,840
Speaker 3: So for me, I'm just gonna go with the one

321
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Speaker 3: in the three to try and get through here and

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Speaker 3: try and avoid the second favorit who I think is

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Speaker 3: going to get bet down off that five to two number.

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Speaker 1: Based on the discussion I've heard this week, I would

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00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:03,120
Speaker 1: agree with you that I think First Mission is going

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00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:04,400
Speaker 1: to get a lot of buzz, and I think the

327
00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:07,240
Speaker 1: odds for National Treasure may actually float up if you

328
00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:09,000
Speaker 1: get five to one, six to one by post time,

329
00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:12,880
Speaker 1: that would be lovely. Considering your guy's consensus opinion on

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00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,320
Speaker 1: this horse continent, I would imagine you're also going to

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Speaker 1: be including the one National Treasure. Are you using Mage

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Speaker 1: or using First Mission or using anybody else?

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00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, so National Treasure definitely my top pick.

334
00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:27,080
Speaker 4: Unfortunately, while I listened to Mike and included Mage so

335
00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:29,240
Speaker 4: that I had a nice score on Derby Day, because

336
00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:30,720
Speaker 4: it wasn't my top pick.

337
00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:33,040
Speaker 2: It's a little bit harder to swallow at eight to five.

338
00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:36,160
Speaker 4: But for the reasons I mentioned earlier, right, I really

339
00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,480
Speaker 4: do like National Treasure. The other thing that we didn't mention,

340
00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:41,680
Speaker 4: National Treasure puts the blinkers back on. He's had the

341
00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:44,920
Speaker 4: blinkers on in two races, the Maiden special Weight win

342
00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,600
Speaker 4: which he went Kate to wire, and then in the Breeders'

343
00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,200
Speaker 4: Cup Juvenile because they wanted him to be more forwardly placed.

344
00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:53,040
Speaker 4: Mike mentioned it already right, going up against Cave Rock

345
00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:55,280
Speaker 4: and that spot tough to be able to get to lead.

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Speaker 2: They're clearly all systems go right.

347
00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:00,840
Speaker 4: There's one way that they want want to win this race,

348
00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:02,840
Speaker 4: and that's to go out, you know, to the lead

349
00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:05,560
Speaker 4: or be pretty darn close to it. And I do

350
00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:08,520
Speaker 4: think that, as you both have mentioned first missions the

351
00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:11,160
Speaker 4: buzz horse, he's the wise guy horse in this Preakness.

352
00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:13,840
Speaker 4: Let that horse take the money. Let the Chad Brown

353
00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,920
Speaker 4: Runner and Blazing sevens take the money. Who knows there

354
00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:18,720
Speaker 4: are gonna be people that are gonna bet coffee with

355
00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:20,600
Speaker 4: Chris just because he's the local horse and they want

356
00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:22,840
Speaker 4: the feel good story. Right, Let some of the money

357
00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:25,960
Speaker 4: pour in in other places. And Sean, as you said,

358
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Speaker 4: let National Treasure float up at five six to one,

359
00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:32,440
Speaker 4: that becomes extremely appealing. It's it's enticing as it is

360
00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,000
Speaker 4: at four to one, becomes extremely appealing at five six

361
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Speaker 4: to one.

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Speaker 2: But I'm not gonna let Mage beat me.

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Speaker 1: Unlike other sports where charp bets, big bets can directly

364
00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:45,120
Speaker 1: move odds, the public has their say in horse racing,

365
00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:48,240
Speaker 1: and those two dollars bets on Mage, the Kentucky Derby

366
00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:51,080
Speaker 1: winner will add up and his odds will shrink or

367
00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,640
Speaker 1: stay roughly where they are. I would imagine he finishes

368
00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:58,600
Speaker 1: around even money eight to five, probably fair for this race. Okay,

369
00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:01,480
Speaker 1: So Kanti just clear National Treasure of the one. Are

370
00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:03,480
Speaker 1: you also using major first mission at all?

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00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:05,880
Speaker 2: I think first mission none.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so the one in three are consensus top selections,

373
00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:13,600
Speaker 1: but for the price National Treasure assumably the better value,

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Speaker 1: especially in a small field.

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Speaker 1: Underneath horses we're going to use in exotics, any backup

401
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,840
Speaker 1: options are you? Are you taking in multis? Are you

402
00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:51,000
Speaker 1: using anybody else on a backup ticket? But underneath in

403
00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:55,119
Speaker 1: terms of exotics, trifectas exact as super fectus for this race?

404
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:59,680
Speaker 1: Where are your top long shot selections? Will same order

405
00:17:59,720 --> 00:17:59,960
Speaker 1: so much?

406
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:00,280
Speaker 2: First?

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00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:02,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, for me, I'm just using one in three in

408
00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:04,760
Speaker 3: the multi race bets. I'm not gonna go any deeper here.

409
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:06,280
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna try and take a shot. If I

410
00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,520
Speaker 3: was going to, it would be red Route one or Perform.

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00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:10,679
Speaker 3: But like you said, Sean, the pace here just not

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00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,440
Speaker 3: set up for either of those horses to be win candidates, right,

413
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,160
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna be looking for prices underneath the way

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00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,000
Speaker 3: I usually play these races. Look if I like the

415
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:20,199
Speaker 3: favorite and I think the favorite has an edge in

416
00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:23,199
Speaker 3: this spot, I'm looking for cold exactas. I'm looking for

417
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 3: cold trifectas, and I'm looking for heavy super fectas with

418
00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,760
Speaker 3: those one and two spots as single horses, right, So

419
00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:31,960
Speaker 3: I'm gonna play a cold three to one exact a

420
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:35,639
Speaker 3: Maije over National Treasure. I'm hoping we get six seven

421
00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:37,840
Speaker 3: eight to one on that, which is a much better

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00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,119
Speaker 3: price than Maje at even money, right, And that's the

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00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 3: way I feel like I can attack the race and

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00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,680
Speaker 3: be able to create some value while even using the favorite.

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Speaker 3: I'm also gonna play some supers and I'm gonna put

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00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,080
Speaker 3: Mage in that first spot. I'm gonna put National Treasure

427
00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,160
Speaker 3: in the second spot, and then i'm gonna use three

428
00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 3: horses underneath there. I'll use Perform, I'll use Red Route one,

429
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:57,560
Speaker 3: and i will use the eight horse first mission as

430
00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:59,159
Speaker 3: well in the third and fourth spots. So if you

431
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,439
Speaker 3: play that for five bucks, you're just looking at it

432
00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:03,680
Speaker 3: a three times two ticket essentially, so you're looking about

433
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:06,480
Speaker 3: thirty dollars ticket for five dollars. There's a great amount

434
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,360
Speaker 3: of value in that where even if you get those

435
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,280
Speaker 3: first two spots with shorter prices. If you can sprinkle

436
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,000
Speaker 3: in one or both of those longer shots, all of

437
00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:16,000
Speaker 3: a sudden you have a super effected ticket that pays

438
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,119
Speaker 3: out and you've got five bucks on it versus that

439
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,760
Speaker 3: ten cent denomination, and you're still still only spending thirty

440
00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:21,520
Speaker 3: dollars for a ticket.

441
00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:23,480
Speaker 1: So I will play a.

442
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:29,560
Speaker 3: Three over one over five six eight five six eight superfecta,

443
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:31,879
Speaker 3: and then I kind of think Redwou one is the

444
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:33,440
Speaker 3: horse that's going to run third here, So I'm probably

445
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:38,160
Speaker 3: gonna play a three one five cold trifecta as well

446
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:39,879
Speaker 3: to see if we can get some value there and

447
00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,080
Speaker 3: just hitting that one cold and having it for ten

448
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,800
Speaker 3: dollars or fifteen dollars and juicing up those payouts.

449
00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:47,480
Speaker 1: I like the structuring. The one question I want to

450
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:49,840
Speaker 1: ask is with the exact why are you playing it

451
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 1: cold and not boxing it, especially with two horses. Just

452
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,120
Speaker 1: is that it just a value bat or you think

453
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:56,360
Speaker 1: it's minus ev to box.

454
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 3: Itt So someone who is really really smart, my dad

455
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,400
Speaker 3: who taught me how to bet, said, if I show

456
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,040
Speaker 3: you my tickets, you should know exactly who I like

457
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 3: in the order that I like them. And so I'm

458
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 3: a big person. I'm big against boxing. I think boxing

459
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,480
Speaker 3: shows a lack of real opinion. So if you want

460
00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 3: to box it, I would recommend you probably shouldn't be

461
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 3: playing that race. You should have you know, let's say

462
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,159
Speaker 3: you want to spend ten dollars, you should have an

463
00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 3: eight dollars exact to one way and a two dollars

464
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:21,720
Speaker 3: exact to the other if you're worried about it coming

465
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,240
Speaker 3: into the opposite ways versus boxing it for five dollars

466
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 3: each way, because that shows a lack of opinion in

467
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 3: that spot, and if you are correct, you don't get

468
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,359
Speaker 3: paid the proper amount. So if you feel like you

469
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:33,840
Speaker 3: want to have some ability to kind of hedge what

470
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,280
Speaker 3: your your opinion is here and mine is three to one,

471
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 3: you could play it eight dollars three to one and

472
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:42,440
Speaker 3: two dollars one three. But for me, specifically the way

473
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:44,719
Speaker 3: that I gambles, I'm looking for bigger scores, I am

474
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,959
Speaker 3: looking for bigger hits. Generally that means I'm betting exact

475
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,119
Speaker 3: as in trifectas cold or maybe playing a try with

476
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 3: one horse over two horses, But rarely am I actually

477
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,160
Speaker 3: hitting the box button, because I feel like that doesn't

478
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,640
Speaker 3: necessarily get you paid at the level you should when

479
00:20:58,640 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 3: your opinion is correct.

480
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:03,400
Speaker 1: And I think this is a great conversation just your

481
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,159
Speaker 1: thoughts on keys as well. You know, if you're if

482
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,160
Speaker 1: you're playing a trifecta key or maybe maybe even exact

483
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:09,640
Speaker 1: a key with you know, one on top of them

484
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 1: three underneath it, you kind of feel a similar white

485
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 1: that those are not expressing enough of an opinion to

486
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:16,120
Speaker 1: play that race.

487
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 3: Those would be backup bets for me or smaller bets, right,

488
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 3: so I would have let's say, let's say if I

489
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 3: play a two dollar key and I'm playing that both ways,

490
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 3: I'm going to have a ten dollars with that horse

491
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:27,639
Speaker 3: on top right where I'm saying, hey, this is my

492
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 3: top horse, this is how I want to play it.

493
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 3: I become more interested in trifecta keys if I am

494
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 3: if I like multiple ten to twenty to one shots

495
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:37,919
Speaker 3: that I have included in there, because if your price

496
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,360
Speaker 3: is bigger on those horses that you're trying to run

497
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 3: in the trifector the superfecta, the BET's going to pay

498
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 3: a lot more. So it's if you are able to

499
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,439
Speaker 3: run your one horse in there, there's a huge amount

500
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,439
Speaker 3: of value So if I really like a ten to

501
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,639
Speaker 3: one and I have two fifteen to ones and a

502
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:53,239
Speaker 3: five to one is the horses I want to key

503
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 3: in the try with it. That's a situation where I

504
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 3: play it. If I like may Shure at eight to five,

505
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,200
Speaker 3: a trifecta key just does not have the value. You're

506
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 3: going to spend too much money to be able to

507
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,360
Speaker 3: hit something that's that's a big time payout.

508
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,439
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, it makes complete sense, and the reason why

509
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 1: I love betting on horse racing. I think it's really

510
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 1: good lessons for bankroll management certainly, but also in terms

511
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,639
Speaker 1: of how you've set it a way to express your

512
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:17,919
Speaker 1: opinion when you're making bets. It actually teaches you a

513
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:20,200
Speaker 1: lot of structure that you can apply to other sports.

514
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 1: That found that it's helped me, you know, through the

515
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,399
Speaker 1: fifteen plus years that have been betting on sports and

516
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 1: horse racing. Mike Conti, let's talk about your horses that

517
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 1: you're interested in using underneath and how you're playing one

518
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 1: hundred and fortyeighth Running of the Breatness. I know you

519
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:34,440
Speaker 1: mentioned that you like the one and three on top,

520
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 1: as our fellow Mike Sawich does from raising Dudes, But

521
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 1: how are you playing the race?

522
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,479
Speaker 4: Yeah, so playing it similarly yet a little bit different. Right,

523
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 4: with National Treasure being my top selection, I will single

524
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:50,600
Speaker 4: National Treasure on top in the vertical, So in the

525
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,919
Speaker 4: exotics and the multi race bets again, I'm not going

526
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 4: to let Major beat me.

527
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 2: I will be using the one and the three. But

528
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 2: in the vertical wagering exact a trifecta.

529
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:01,440
Speaker 4: The horse that I like at a little bit of

530
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 4: a price underneath is Perform.

531
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 2: We didn't talk a ton about perform.

532
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 4: But when you go back and you look right, it

533
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 4: took this horse six races to break his maiden. But

534
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 4: then when you go back and you dig into who

535
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 4: he lost to in those other five starts before he

536
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 4: was able to break his maiden, lost to Mage, lost

537
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 4: to rays Kane, lost to Disarm, lost to lost Arc,

538
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 4: who came back and won next out. So it's not

539
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:30,439
Speaker 4: like he ever faced a really soft field. He was

540
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 4: going up against some of the best two and three

541
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:33,959
Speaker 4: year olds at that time.

542
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 2: I think he's really coming into his own.

543
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 4: You go back and you watch that last race, albeit

544
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 4: at Laurel Park it was a non graded stakes race.

545
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 4: This horse was weaving through traffic coming down the lane

546
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 4: and ends up tipping out just in the last sixteenth

547
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 4: or so of a mile to get up for the win.

548
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 2: Super impressive at a price.

549
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:54,959
Speaker 4: We've talked about the other horses that we think are

550
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,439
Speaker 4: going to take money in here, I really like this

551
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 4: horse underneath. So in terms of how I'm going to

552
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 4: play my multi race bets, I will play a straight

553
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 4: trifecta one, three, six, and then as it pertains to superfectas,

554
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,919
Speaker 4: I will play a super where I have National Treasure

555
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,680
Speaker 4: in first, Maje in second, I will have perform and

556
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 4: first mission in third, and then I would include Red

557
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:23,639
Speaker 4: Route one, perform and first mission in fourth. So again

558
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 4: similar to Mike right three by two for a super

559
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 4: effecta bet you know, for five bucks. Again, it's a

560
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,959
Speaker 4: thirty dollars bet. It's not a massive investment, but it

561
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 4: can pay pretty well, especially with the fact that you're

562
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 4: trying to beat Maje. You're skinny enough right that you're

563
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 4: actually extracting value and there are some prices underneath that

564
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 4: can come in and hit the board.

565
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: Folks if you need to recap those bets, because listen,

566
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 1: it's a lot of numbers, but just rewind it. You know,

567
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 1: they the guys put those together pretty concisely. But just

568
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 1: the general opinion here right, major National Treasure, the A selections,

569
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 1: the six perform pretty consensus B selection underneath use but

570
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 1: some order one and three on top. And I think

571
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:08,680
Speaker 1: we're gonna see the number eight first mission take a

572
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: lot of money. The guys generally trying to beat him,

573
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 1: but using him defensively. Let's move back a day to

574
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 1: the Black Eyed Susan Steaks five forty four pm post

575
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 1: on Friday. This is a deeper field. Twelve horses would

576
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 1: have been even longer. There were actually a few scratches

577
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 1: shortly before the draw. I want to get both of

578
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:30,360
Speaker 1: your thoughts just on how you break the race down

579
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 1: in general, how you're thinking about betting it. We do

580
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 1: have a pretty significant favorite in here, the number nine

581
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 1: FASA also Abob Bafford Horse Bafford dealing with a lot

582
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 1: of tumultuous news in the past couple weeks, the sport

583
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 1: of horse racing in general pretty tumultuous overall. Is this

584
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 1: a horse you guys are considering going against as a

585
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 1: seven to five favorite, going against completely We're going to

586
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:55,640
Speaker 1: use defensively. Want to hear your thoughts on the favorite here.

587
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,159
Speaker 1: Any thoughts you have on this race in general, just

588
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 1: give it to me, my CONTI let's start with you. Yeah,

589
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:04,879
Speaker 1: so I'll be honest, I'm tossing Phasa at seven to five,

590
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 1: like she's done nothing wrong, right, she's a perfect five

591
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:09,399
Speaker 1: for five.

592
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 2: She's baffered. I just who is she faced? Right?

593
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,679
Speaker 4: I don't know, not a whole lot out west in

594
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:18,360
Speaker 4: terms of these younger phillies.

595
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 2: So she's a toss.

596
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 4: And then if you toss her, now, all of a

597
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 4: sudden you look at this board and you say, wow,

598
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 4: there is value to be had. I ironically also ended

599
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 4: up on the one horse in this race in Sacred Wish.

600
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 4: I went back and watched her Gulf Stream Parks Oaks

601
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 4: race a couple of times, and while I don't think

602
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 4: that she ran poorly, she finished second in that race

603
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 4: behind Affirmative Lady. But you could really see that she

604
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,360
Speaker 4: was a little green at the top of the stretch

605
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 4: and she started to figure it out, you know, late,

606
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 4: and then the gallop out. Right, You watch the gallop out,

607
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,719
Speaker 4: especially when you're watching these replays, especially these younger horses,

608
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 4: to see how are they finishing up right, Like, what's

609
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 4: their mindset when they're finishing up, and I thought that

610
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:07,400
Speaker 4: she had a really strong gallop out, So at ten

611
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 4: to one on the morning line, she's going to be

612
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 4: my top selection. Ironically, also, Johnny V is riding her,

613
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 4: so if I was to play the Black Eyed Susan

614
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:20,199
Speaker 4: Preakness double, it would be one with one both on

615
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,679
Speaker 4: Johnny V. So I really like her, and here the

616
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 4: other horse that in this race.

617
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,920
Speaker 2: That kind of interests me, piqued my interest.

618
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:33,199
Speaker 4: I just don't know how I really feel about her

619
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 4: yet though, is text and here's my biggest challenge right

620
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 4: Wet Paint was a heavy favorite in the Oaks. I

621
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 4: loved her that day. Obviously she did not run her race.

622
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 4: She did, I don't think she ran particularly well. And

623
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 4: the other thing that came out of that, out of

624
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 4: the weekend at Churchill were that the Oakland shippers didn't

625
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 4: run particularly well, and so it just leaves a question

626
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:59,439
Speaker 4: mark of how strong was that Oakland crop and that

627
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 4: Oakland meat. Was it just that they didn't like the

628
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,160
Speaker 4: Churchill surface. We know it's a deeper track at Churchill,

629
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 4: so maybe that was it. I'm not entirely sure, but

630
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 4: at fifteen to one, tax is a horse in here

631
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 4: that also piqued my interest.

632
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 1: CONTI going against the number nine Phasa with the number

633
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 1: one Secret Wish at ten to one and the number

634
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,159
Speaker 1: ten Text at fifteen to one. I found Angel Vampire,

635
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,439
Speaker 1: Randy decent Derby maybe didn't out run as odds, but

636
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 1: Randy decent Derby coming over from Oaklawn. Mike Samich, are

637
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,400
Speaker 1: you also against the number nine Phasea completely or using

638
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:32,919
Speaker 1: or defensively at all? And what other horses do you

639
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 1: like in this race.

640
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 3: I'm glad you mentioned Angel Vampire because that's one of

641
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 3: the reasons I'm taking my horse in this spot. Look,

642
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 3: I'm against Phase as well. I think Mike broke it

643
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:43,959
Speaker 3: down very well there. The California Phillies just aren't as

644
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 3: good and they have not been as good for four

645
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 3: or five years. Baffort hasn't won this race since twenty seventeen.

646
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 3: Before that, it was twenty eleven. These are Plecchra races,

647
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 3: these are Cox races. They've been successful with the Phillies

648
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 3: in these three year old races. The East Coast has

649
00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 3: been better than the West Coast consistently with the Philly

650
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 3: over the last few years. So for me, there's just

651
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 3: too many question marks to play. This horse is seven

652
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 3: to five. I mean and tell me no lies. Ran

653
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 3: twelve in the Kentucky Oaks. That is by far the

654
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 3: best horse. A phase is faced, the waters get a

655
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 3: lot deeper, you're shipping for the first time, and the

656
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 3: price isn't right. So for all those reasons, I'm gonna

657
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 3: go a different direction. I'm gonna go to the four

658
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 3: horse Merlaza here. This is a brad Cox horse luring

659
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 3: Geroue gets the mount. This horse has done one three

660
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 3: straight times, ran second and.

661
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 1: Its first career start.

662
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 3: She is improving and to me, she has tactical speed

663
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 3: in a race where I think the pace is kind

664
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 3: of murky. There's a bunch of horses that want to

665
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 3: be forwardly placed, but no one that really wants.

666
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 1: To just go, go, go, go, go right.

667
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 3: So I think she's gonna be able to sit in

668
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 3: that second group, right behind the horses that do decide

669
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 3: to go, and she's going to get a nice trip

670
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 3: to be able to make a run around the far turn.

671
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 3: The distance should be great for her. This is a

672
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 3: Magla to a daughter of maglid to oorl out of

673
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:52,719
Speaker 3: a distorted humor mare. So she should want every bit

674
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 3: of this extra distance she's going to get. I mentioned

675
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 3: Brad Cox, he's very good with these phillies. This is

676
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 3: clearly not his best filly in the barn, but that

677
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 3: may not to win this race because this is not

678
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 3: nearly as deep as the Kentucky Oaks that we saw

679
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 3: two weeks ago. The price is right as well. We're

680
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 3: getting six to one here in this spot. And she

681
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 3: was successful at Fairgrounds, which was also the thing that

682
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 3: pointed toward Angel of Empire, who won at Fairgrounds, went

683
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 3: to Oakland and won. Well, she won at Fairgrounds, went

684
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 3: and run a stakes race at Oakland. Now she's showing

685
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 3: up here on in the Black Eyed Susan. So I'm

686
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 3: going to use the fourmer lasa on top. I don't

687
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 3: feel like completely fading PHASEA. I'm not going to use

688
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 3: phase in the multi race stuff. But I do think

689
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 3: she makes ton of sense and that second or third

690
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 3: spot underneath if you're looking to play a trifecta, because look,

691
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 3: her best effort. Even if she is, let's say she

692
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 3: is better than what I expect, she could easily end

693
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 3: up in that second or third spot if she just

694
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 3: runs back to those races it would fit. I like

695
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 3: the ten tax as well. I'm willing to give that

696
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 3: Oakland issue a break. The race last time was good

697
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 3: enough if I respected wet Pain as much as I

698
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 3: did and she just didn't show up. I got to

699
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 3: give tax another shot here at fifteen to one, So

700
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 3: I think the ten tax makes some sense here. But

701
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 3: my topic is gonna be the four Marlasa at six

702
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 3: to one. I love it, guys. You know my initial

703
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 3: reaction to this race. I hadn't dove particularly deep into it,

704
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 3: but against the nine on the one and on the four.

705
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 3: So yeah, one in four, the ten in there. Also

706
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 3: for the Black Eyed Susan Pretna's double. You guys also

707
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 3: like the one and the three in the Preakness, and

708
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 3: I mean brag Cox in big races, can you really

709
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 3: go completely against them? So the one on the fourth

710
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 3: and the ten in the Black Eyed Susan, the one,

711
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:32,719
Speaker 3: the three in the eight in the Preakness stakes. That

712
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 3: covers you with Brad Cox, and it covers you with

713
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 3: Johnny v on the one in both races as well.

714
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 3: Let's back up a little bit to the undercard races

715
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 3: on Friday. Any particular bets that stand out for you, guys,

716
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 3: not only in terms of being a win bet, maybe

717
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:47,960
Speaker 3: an exotic that you have somewhere on the card, or

718
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 3: just the horse that you want to single in multi

719
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 3: race sequences so much you're gonna go right back to you. Yeah,

720
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 3: I'm looking at the first race of the day here

721
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 3: eleven thirty post time on the East Coast, So get

722
00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 3: your bets in early. I'm gonna go to the five

723
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 3: force Evan Harley and Grand Motion trains. Joel Rosario is

724
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:02,719
Speaker 3: gonna ride.

725
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 1: This race.

726
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 3: Doesn't have a lot of speed. There's a couple horses

727
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 3: that have had the lead inside of Evan Harlan, but

728
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 3: in those races they were going twenty four forty nine

729
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 3: to the half. Evan Harlan is faster than that. And

730
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 3: Graham Motion is a very old school style trainer. He

731
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 3: does not press horses, he does not overly place horses.

732
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 3: Really interesting what he did with Evan Harlan. Evan Harlan

733
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 3: wins a maiden special weight at Aqueduct, goes right into

734
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 3: the Grade one Hollywood Derby that is a huge step

735
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 3: up in class last year, drops down to a winners

736
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 3: of one allowance, ends up running third there, then goes

737
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 3: right back into a Grade three race. Graham Motion thinks

738
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 3: a lot of this horse first time out as a

739
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 3: four year old win a mile and a half at Keenland,

740
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 3: ended up running fifth in that race. Now we're getting

741
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 3: second off a layoff, second out as a four year

742
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 3: old with controlling speed at a seven to two price.

743
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 3: I'm gonna put a win bet in here on the

744
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 3: five horse, Evan Harlan in the first race on Friday.

745
00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 1: Eleven thirty am post time. So as Mike said, get

746
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 1: those bets in early second choice on the board. Is

747
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 1: there a number that you would bet Evan Harland down to.

748
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 3: I think we're gonna get every bit of that seven

749
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 3: to two. I think it actually might float up a

750
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 3: little bit even I would be interested in Evan Harland

751
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 3: at three to one or better. If we get down

752
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 3: to that five to two two to one range, that's

753
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 3: where I would start looking at, Hey, can I play

754
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 3: a double Do I want to look at something where

755
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 3: I want to single this horse in the pick five

756
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,479
Speaker 3: to separate myself a little bit. I do like the

757
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 3: four horse, and the second race rugs quite a bit

758
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 3: as well. I considered that having to be the best

759
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 3: bet on the card, but the five to two price

760
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 3: kept me off it. So if we see some money

761
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 3: start pouring in on the five Evan Harlan, I don't.

762
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 1: Hate the five to four double here to kick off

763
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 1: the card. Love that to start your card. And you're

764
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 1: betting for britn Stakes weekend on Friday. My CONTI any

765
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 1: underbard excuse me, any undercard bets for Friday for real? Yeah,

766
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 1: I'm going to race ten, which is the Miss Preakness

767
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 1: Stakes for three year old Phillies Sprint race six furlongs.

768
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 1: There's a big morning line favorite in here, number six

769
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 1: Maple Leaf mel at eight to five. She's coming out

770
00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 1: of all state bred races in New York and so

771
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 1: not just for that reason, but I'm going against her,

772
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 1: and I'm going on number four afternoon Tea. She broke

773
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,399
Speaker 1: her maiden last out at Keenland, where she was able

774
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:12,919
Speaker 1: to draw in after a couple of defections. In that race,

775
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 1: she was in the fifteen post. Here's what I really

776
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 1: liked about her. She sat a perfect trip.

777
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 4: Which you could say, well, isn't that a reason to

778
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 4: go against a horse? She was extremely green in the

779
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,760
Speaker 4: lane at her head cocked, it looked like she had

780
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 4: the runner up American Retro dead to rights in the

781
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 4: lane and she won, but not super convincingly. That was

782
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 4: only after noon Tea's second ever career start, and it

783
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,760
Speaker 4: was her first career start on a fast dirt track.

784
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 4: I'm expecting her to continue to move forward, and there

785
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 4: are no world beaters in this race, even with the

786
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 4: heavy morning line favorite at eight to one, extreme amounts

787
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 4: of value. I will be playing her in multi race

788
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 4: bets as a single, trying to extract the value earlier

789
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 4: in this pick five sequence that I think is a

790
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 4: little bit of a salty pick five sequence that ends

791
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 4: in the Black Eyed Susan Frankly, so I will have

792
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 4: her as my single in that sequence.

793
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 3: I think Mike and I both agree on a horse

794
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 3: in the eleventh as well, breath Away, who looked phenomenal

795
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 3: last time out in the sand Belle Island at Gulf

796
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,360
Speaker 3: Stream Park, absolutely exploded, gonna be two to one in

797
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 3: the morning lines, a little bit of a shorter price,

798
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 3: but a horse that you can definitely keep running the

799
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 3: late pick five on Friday as well.

800
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 1: So that is the number one breath Away in race eleven,

801
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: and we have a consensus opinion there. Let's move and

802
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 1: I should mention for race ten a little partial for

803
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 1: me to the number I believe I lost that the

804
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 1: number five Topsy daughter of b Jersey, who won a

805
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 1: bunch of money for me in the Metropolitan Miles. So

806
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:48,399
Speaker 1: any kids of b Jersey will be horses that I'm

807
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 1: rooting for it. Let's move on to Saturday's undercard. Any

808
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 1: bets throughout the card, either leading into the Preakness or not,

809
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 1: Mike so much going right back to you. Any undercard

810
00:35:58,120 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 1: bets you like, single as you like throughout the card.

811
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 1: So I'm going to take a little bit of a

812
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 1: shot here in the ninth race.

813
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 3: So you're going six furlongs for the phillies here, one

814
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 3: hundred thousand dollars stakes. Race drew ten horses. Eight of

815
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 3: the ten want the lead, so ooa looking for the

816
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 3: other two who don't. Trying to find someone's going to

817
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 3: come from off the pace. A little bit that points

818
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 3: to the number six, gunning Ken McPeak gif Flavian prout aboard.

819
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:21,399
Speaker 3: This horse has run back to back to back off

820
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,839
Speaker 3: track races, come from off the pace in all three

821
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 3: of those. But if you look back, I would actually

822
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:28,360
Speaker 3: argue the maiden breaking score of a fast track was

823
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 3: the best race for this horse. Where it looks like

824
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:32,759
Speaker 3: we're gonna have a fast track on Saturday. We've got

825
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 3: a plethora of speed that is going to be firing

826
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 3: out of the gate in front of Gunning. I think

827
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:40,399
Speaker 3: Gunnings it's the perfect trip, and we are getting six

828
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 3: to one because the buyers are just a little bit

829
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 3: lower than some of these speed horses. But when we

830
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 3: have four or five line up and Gunn is just

831
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 3: sitting there being able to draft right behind those leaders,

832
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 3: I think it sets up extremely well and that six

833
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 3: to one price should be there. So I'll take Gunning

834
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 3: the number six horse the ninth race at six to

835
00:36:57,040 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 3: one three thirty one pm post time. For that Gunning

836
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,760
Speaker 3: a son of gun Runner, my all time favorite horse,

837
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 3: So I literally need to know no other research into

838
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 3: that race.

839
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,239
Speaker 1: I will be betting Gunning. Mike CONTI give me your

840
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 1: favorite undercard bets for Saturday.

841
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 2: Yeah.

842
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 4: So I'm going to raise seven to the number one

843
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 4: horse again. I promise It's not a number thing for me.

844
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 4: It just happened to work out this way this weekend

845
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:24,280
Speaker 4: to number one White Beam Horses three to one last

846
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 4: time out, first start for this Philly in the US,

847
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 4: excuse me, And if you just look at the running

848
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 4: line in the PPS, you say, okay, she lost by

849
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,800
Speaker 4: a next she was relatively close, only sat two lengths back.

850
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:42,400
Speaker 2: It was only a five horse field.

851
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 4: Though, if you actually then look at the times and

852
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 4: you go watch the replay of this, they went extremely slow.

853
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 4: I would consider it where she actually closed into a

854
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 4: slow pace. She was clearly moving the best and the

855
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 4: horse that won that day that afternoon. Excuse me, evy

856
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,799
Speaker 4: jets walked them around the track. I think there's much

857
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,239
Speaker 4: more pace signed on in here for White Beam, you

858
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 4: get irad aboard. For Chad Brown, we're getting three to

859
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 4: one on the morning line. Listen, I said, is my

860
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 4: best Derby card under bet was up to the market

861
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 4: four to one and back the Brinks truck up and

862
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 4: thankfully hopefully everybody else cashed as much as some of

863
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 4: us did on that. And I would say the same

864
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 4: thing here with White Beam. I love this horse. Honestly,

865
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 4: probably my best bet of the entire weekend is White Beam.

866
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:32,839
Speaker 4: I think that she is primed, ready to go, will

867
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 4: sit a great trip as enough of as great late kick,

868
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 4: has plenty of pace to run into Chad Irad and

869
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 4: she's never run a bad race in her life. Second

870
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:45,280
Speaker 4: off the layoff, there's just so much to like about

871
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 4: this Philly, and so listen. It's in a part of

872
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,799
Speaker 4: the sequence right of like how do you play this well?

873
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:53,800
Speaker 4: Mike and I both actually really like gunning in the

874
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 4: ninth race. So it's something where I'm gonna have bookend

875
00:38:56,760 --> 00:39:00,320
Speaker 4: singles in a big pick three where I single White

876
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 4: Beam in race seven, single gunning in race nine, and

877
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:09,320
Speaker 4: probably spread a little bit, use three or four horses

878
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 4: in the eighth race, just quick, a tone, never explain

879
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 4: Easter and a manual in that race. But again that's

880
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 4: a race two where I will probably play a massive

881
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 4: pick three where I just single in race eight as well,

882
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 4: because I think a tone's gonna be tough, and so

883
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:30,920
Speaker 4: I'll play two pick threes, one where I spread a

884
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 4: little bit in race eight.

885
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 2: One where I have.

886
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:36,320
Speaker 4: It's a cold pick three where I've got white Beam

887
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 4: in ray seven, a tone in race eight, and gunning

888
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 4: in race nine.

889
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,399
Speaker 3: White Beam was one that I targeted as well there,

890
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 3: so it was interesting he sniped that one from me

891
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 3: because that look that white Beam came home in twenty

892
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:50,760
Speaker 3: two and three in that race that Mike was referencing,

893
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 3: that is otherworldly over that Gulf Stream Park turf to

894
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 3: not be able to win when you come home that

895
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:57,239
Speaker 3: faster coming from off the pace. So White Beam a

896
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 3: good single there also kicks off a pick five in

897
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 3: race seven, so you I want to single both of them.

898
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 3: You can spread out in those other three legs and

899
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 3: try and get home a nice pick five.

900
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,919
Speaker 1: Congratulations the number four eminent victor the other Chad Brown

901
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 1: horse in the race. Because when you pick one Chad Brown,

902
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 1: the other one always comes home and ends up tearing

903
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 1: up your tickets. Guys, thank you so much for this analysis.

904
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 1: They gave you plenty of bets throughout the cards on

905
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 1: both Friday and Saturday, whether it was exotics for the

906
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 1: Preatnas Steaks, exotics for the black Eyed season on Friday,

907
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:28,240
Speaker 1: a Black Eyed Season Preatnus double, and then some undercard

908
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 1: singles on both Friday and Saturday for Mike Samich, for

909
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 1: Mike Conti, I'm Sean Zarillo, We'll see you back in

910
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 1: a few weeks for the Belmont Steaks. Best of luck

911
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: this week.

912
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or

913
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,280
Speaker 5: someone you care about has a gambling problem.

914
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 1: Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

915
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler