1 00:00:11,657 --> 00:00:14,937 Speaker 1: You're listening to The Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure 2 00:00:14,937 --> 00:00:17,977 Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or 3 00:00:17,977 --> 00:00:21,297 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everybody, welcome to another 4 00:00:21,337 --> 00:00:24,777 Speaker 1: episode of The Buck Sexton Show. This week we have 5 00:00:25,057 --> 00:00:30,457 Speaker 1: an expert in military and national security analysis. Bill Rogio 6 00:00:30,857 --> 00:00:34,457 Speaker 1: is with us. He's part of the Long War Journal. 7 00:00:34,617 --> 00:00:38,097 Speaker 1: He's at the foundation of defense and democracies. He knows 8 00:00:38,137 --> 00:00:42,697 Speaker 1: this stuff backwards and forwards. Bill, Thanks for being with us, Buck, 9 00:00:42,697 --> 00:00:44,977 Speaker 1: always a pleasure. Thanks for having me on. All right, 10 00:00:45,017 --> 00:00:49,697 Speaker 1: So Ukraine, we're deep diving into Ukraine. Give everybody an 11 00:00:49,737 --> 00:00:54,177 Speaker 1: assessment of where we are. It's February twenty twenty three. 12 00:00:54,217 --> 00:00:56,977 Speaker 1: We are one year into this war. What is the 13 00:00:57,017 --> 00:00:59,977 Speaker 1: state of play right now? Yeah, I think this war 14 00:01:00,097 --> 00:01:02,897 Speaker 1: has not gone the way that just about everyone thought 15 00:01:02,977 --> 00:01:05,457 Speaker 1: at one point, you know, everyone was concerned that the 16 00:01:05,577 --> 00:01:09,177 Speaker 1: Russians were going to eat you, overrun the capitol and 17 00:01:09,377 --> 00:01:13,657 Speaker 1: AlSi Ukrainian government. And then after this fall there was 18 00:01:13,777 --> 00:01:18,057 Speaker 1: a lot of jubilation as the Ukrainians ejected the Russians 19 00:01:18,097 --> 00:01:21,457 Speaker 1: from northern Ukraine as well as in the Kerson region 20 00:01:21,577 --> 00:01:24,377 Speaker 1: in the south. But things seem to have stabilized now 21 00:01:24,457 --> 00:01:29,017 Speaker 1: Russia has called up a mobilization of forces. There's estimated 22 00:01:29,097 --> 00:01:31,937 Speaker 1: some isol around three hundred and twenty thousand Russian troops 23 00:01:31,937 --> 00:01:34,977 Speaker 1: inside Ukraine now and another about one hundred, two hundred 24 00:01:34,977 --> 00:01:38,617 Speaker 1: and fifty thousand in reserve. So this is a This 25 00:01:38,697 --> 00:01:41,137 Speaker 1: is more than twice of the forces that the Russians 26 00:01:41,217 --> 00:01:43,857 Speaker 1: began this work with. So we're sort of at a 27 00:01:43,977 --> 00:01:46,977 Speaker 1: stalemate at this point, which was expected because of the 28 00:01:47,017 --> 00:01:50,017 Speaker 1: winter months. But the Russians do appear to be planning 29 00:01:50,057 --> 00:01:53,177 Speaker 1: for an offensive, but it's hard to tell where they're 30 00:01:53,217 --> 00:01:56,177 Speaker 1: actually doing this right now. Most of the fighting, most 31 00:01:56,177 --> 00:01:58,897 Speaker 1: of the reporting of the fighting is in the Donbas 32 00:01:59,057 --> 00:02:02,417 Speaker 1: region in the east. The Russians have been massing forces 33 00:02:02,497 --> 00:02:06,417 Speaker 1: there and they are taking some ground. It's slow, it's 34 00:02:06,417 --> 00:02:08,897 Speaker 1: a slog. But if they can take the city of Bakmud, 35 00:02:08,937 --> 00:02:12,697 Speaker 1: it's a key city along the crossroads of two major highways, 36 00:02:12,537 --> 00:02:16,777 Speaker 1: it's a it's a key transportation um, a logistical hub 37 00:02:16,817 --> 00:02:20,777 Speaker 1: for the Russians. But whether they can they could capitalize 38 00:02:20,777 --> 00:02:23,177 Speaker 1: on those games, it's really difficult to tell, you know. 39 00:02:23,417 --> 00:02:26,297 Speaker 1: I see things far across the spectrum in the in 40 00:02:26,337 --> 00:02:28,817 Speaker 1: the analysis of this, and given the way this war 41 00:02:28,897 --> 00:02:32,137 Speaker 1: has gone. You know, it's anyone's guess what the next 42 00:02:32,137 --> 00:02:34,337 Speaker 1: phase is. But I do think we're going to see 43 00:02:34,577 --> 00:02:37,977 Speaker 1: increased fighting in the south like the I'm sorry, in 44 00:02:37,457 --> 00:02:41,777 Speaker 1: the east in the Donbos region, and this is going 45 00:02:41,857 --> 00:02:46,217 Speaker 1: to foil the Ukrainians plans and to try to eject 46 00:02:46,617 --> 00:02:49,577 Speaker 1: Russia from the Korea. Um. Look, the Ukrainians want the 47 00:02:49,617 --> 00:02:52,937 Speaker 1: Russians completely out of Ukraine, and I don't think that's 48 00:02:52,977 --> 00:02:56,017 Speaker 1: possible given the commitment that the Russians are now making 49 00:02:56,057 --> 00:02:59,137 Speaker 1: to this. And one other thing I'd like to mention 50 00:02:59,177 --> 00:03:03,337 Speaker 1: here too is the sanctions these were hurled at the beginning, 51 00:03:03,457 --> 00:03:06,697 Speaker 1: is going to break the back of the Russians within weeks, 52 00:03:06,697 --> 00:03:09,657 Speaker 1: if not months. And I think what we're seeing here 53 00:03:09,737 --> 00:03:12,897 Speaker 1: in this war is that the Russians have really gotten 54 00:03:12,897 --> 00:03:16,617 Speaker 1: around this. Their GDP I believes down somewhere only around 55 00:03:16,617 --> 00:03:19,377 Speaker 1: three percent this year. It hasn't broken the back of 56 00:03:19,457 --> 00:03:23,737 Speaker 1: their military and industrial complex. It hasn't caused the Russians 57 00:03:23,817 --> 00:03:26,257 Speaker 1: to end this war and withdraw from the Ukraine. So 58 00:03:26,297 --> 00:03:28,417 Speaker 1: we have to really think hard about, you know, the 59 00:03:28,737 --> 00:03:34,297 Speaker 1: efficacy of economic sanctions and the soft power, so to speak. 60 00:03:34,977 --> 00:03:39,377 Speaker 1: Where do the Russians from a pure order of battlefield 61 00:03:39,897 --> 00:03:45,857 Speaker 1: assessment of these opposing forces standpoint right or order of battle. 62 00:03:47,257 --> 00:03:50,857 Speaker 1: Where do the Russians have the advantage and where are 63 00:03:50,857 --> 00:03:56,977 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians able to exploit Russian weaknesses? Yeah, the Russians 64 00:03:56,977 --> 00:04:00,617 Speaker 1: have the qualitative and advantage, meaning they have the numbers. 65 00:04:01,617 --> 00:04:04,537 Speaker 1: Russia is three to four times larger than the Ukraine, 66 00:04:04,617 --> 00:04:10,257 Speaker 1: so they have far more recruits to gather moor they 67 00:04:10,257 --> 00:04:14,217 Speaker 1: can they can conscript and recruit from far more of 68 00:04:14,257 --> 00:04:19,097 Speaker 1: the population than Ukraine can. They have the legacy Soviet 69 00:04:19,817 --> 00:04:23,817 Speaker 1: military hardware and munitions that they can draw on and 70 00:04:23,857 --> 00:04:28,057 Speaker 1: they manufacture. So these are the big advantages of the Russians. 71 00:04:28,657 --> 00:04:33,217 Speaker 1: The Ukrainians have their advantages. They're fighting for their homeland right, 72 00:04:33,217 --> 00:04:36,537 Speaker 1: They're fighting on their own soil, so they're far more motivated. 73 00:04:36,857 --> 00:04:39,417 Speaker 1: But also the support they are receiving from the West 74 00:04:39,417 --> 00:04:42,177 Speaker 1: and that has made a difference, and they are getting 75 00:04:42,177 --> 00:04:46,377 Speaker 1: more advanced weaponry. But you know, I think my concern 76 00:04:46,457 --> 00:04:49,137 Speaker 1: with the with the Ukrainians advantage at some point is 77 00:04:49,177 --> 00:04:54,297 Speaker 1: when does certain Western countries tire of spending billions or 78 00:04:54,337 --> 00:04:57,257 Speaker 1: tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of dollars 79 00:04:57,297 --> 00:05:00,977 Speaker 1: in supporting what is looking to be another long and 80 00:05:01,177 --> 00:05:03,137 Speaker 1: what a lot of people when they describe the War 81 00:05:03,217 --> 00:05:06,617 Speaker 1: on Terre becoming an endless war. You know, this is 82 00:05:06,657 --> 00:05:08,417 Speaker 1: a narrative that was put out on both the far 83 00:05:08,537 --> 00:05:12,337 Speaker 1: right and the far left and in between during the 84 00:05:12,377 --> 00:05:14,657 Speaker 1: War on Terror, and it led to the withdrawal from 85 00:05:14,937 --> 00:05:18,737 Speaker 1: Afghanistan and exhausted the American public. You know, I don't 86 00:05:18,777 --> 00:05:20,737 Speaker 1: think we're there. I don't think we're close to that point. 87 00:05:21,217 --> 00:05:23,897 Speaker 1: But if Russia can keep it as stalemate or make 88 00:05:23,937 --> 00:05:28,217 Speaker 1: slow advances, this is where and the West tires if 89 00:05:27,817 --> 00:05:30,657 Speaker 1: it's not able to send the munitions because we're not 90 00:05:30,737 --> 00:05:36,057 Speaker 1: manufacturing nearly enough to replace what we've given the Ukrainians 91 00:05:36,097 --> 00:05:38,777 Speaker 1: as well as to arm them on a regular basis, 92 00:05:38,777 --> 00:05:42,777 Speaker 1: because they're expending particularly munitions like artillery and air defense 93 00:05:43,577 --> 00:05:46,937 Speaker 1: missiles at at a staggering rate in order to hold 94 00:05:46,937 --> 00:05:50,377 Speaker 1: off the Russians. So that also, I think time that's 95 00:05:50,377 --> 00:05:54,217 Speaker 1: another advantage that the Russians have. Ukrainians, um, they're they're 96 00:05:54,257 --> 00:05:57,697 Speaker 1: more willing, they're more adaptable, they're I think they're again 97 00:05:57,737 --> 00:06:01,497 Speaker 1: they're more motivated, and they have been integrating Western weapons systems, 98 00:06:01,577 --> 00:06:03,577 Speaker 1: but there are problems with that since they're getting a 99 00:06:03,617 --> 00:06:07,417 Speaker 1: judge judge of weapons systems. They're not They're they're not 100 00:06:07,577 --> 00:06:10,537 Speaker 1: using a single systems to look get American tanks and 101 00:06:10,857 --> 00:06:15,217 Speaker 1: German tanks and Ukrainian or I'm sorry, British tanks, and 102 00:06:15,297 --> 00:06:18,137 Speaker 1: those all have their own maintenance and logistical issues to 103 00:06:18,217 --> 00:06:22,097 Speaker 1: deal with, whereas the Russians have the old Soviet hardware 104 00:06:22,097 --> 00:06:24,897 Speaker 1: and the new hardware they're manufacturing, it's all homemade. The 105 00:06:25,017 --> 00:06:28,657 Speaker 1: Ukrainians are expending that old Soviet hardware and they're not 106 00:06:28,737 --> 00:06:31,217 Speaker 1: able to replace that. So that those are the sort 107 00:06:31,217 --> 00:06:34,057 Speaker 1: of the plus and minuses for each side. What do 108 00:06:34,097 --> 00:06:39,457 Speaker 1: you view as the realistic risk of this escalating into 109 00:06:39,497 --> 00:06:44,217 Speaker 1: a nuclear nuclear fight? I was far more concerned about 110 00:06:44,217 --> 00:06:47,457 Speaker 1: this earlier in the war, given the rhetoric that was 111 00:06:47,497 --> 00:06:51,217 Speaker 1: being put out on particularly on both sides. Um I'm 112 00:06:51,537 --> 00:06:54,537 Speaker 1: less concerned about this now, but I am still concerned 113 00:06:56,697 --> 00:07:00,497 Speaker 1: with the regime. Like like I can I actually rephrase 114 00:07:00,497 --> 00:07:03,177 Speaker 1: the question or the quickly bill? Yeah? Absolutely, what would 115 00:07:03,217 --> 00:07:07,537 Speaker 1: what in your mind would you say you are confident 116 00:07:07,697 --> 00:07:12,457 Speaker 1: Russia would respond to new you know, what would make 117 00:07:12,657 --> 00:07:18,457 Speaker 1: Russia go nuclear? That's an excellent question. I think direct 118 00:07:18,537 --> 00:07:22,457 Speaker 1: Western involvement, if NATO directly got involved. That would be 119 00:07:22,537 --> 00:07:28,617 Speaker 1: one situation where the Russians may consider using nuclear weapons, 120 00:07:28,657 --> 00:07:32,737 Speaker 1: and another is if they're actually if Ukrainians hit them 121 00:07:32,777 --> 00:07:35,337 Speaker 1: hard enough that the Russian military is in danger of 122 00:07:36,177 --> 00:07:39,897 Speaker 1: losing significant ground or losing significant forces, that would be 123 00:07:40,017 --> 00:07:42,497 Speaker 1: might be another case where the Russians might use a 124 00:07:42,577 --> 00:07:45,697 Speaker 1: nuclear weapon. So those would very likely in those cases 125 00:07:45,737 --> 00:07:49,617 Speaker 1: be practical battlefield nukes that would be used. But once 126 00:07:49,697 --> 00:07:53,577 Speaker 1: you um, you know, once that happens, all bets are off. 127 00:07:53,617 --> 00:07:56,217 Speaker 1: You know, this isn't you know, nobody wants to play 128 00:07:56,217 --> 00:08:00,337 Speaker 1: the game of chicken with nuclear weapons. Is putin in 129 00:08:00,417 --> 00:08:04,337 Speaker 1: a weaker or stronger position one year into this war 130 00:08:04,857 --> 00:08:09,257 Speaker 1: than when when it was started. I would say he 131 00:08:09,497 --> 00:08:13,217 Speaker 1: is in a stronger position today and it may not 132 00:08:13,457 --> 00:08:16,457 Speaker 1: be Look, the Russians have had problems on the battlefield, 133 00:08:16,457 --> 00:08:20,857 Speaker 1: but they still have made significant gains in Ukraine. He's 134 00:08:20,977 --> 00:08:26,337 Speaker 1: able to he still has the support of the Russian elite, 135 00:08:26,417 --> 00:08:30,257 Speaker 1: of the Russian military and intelligence establishment. You're not seeing 136 00:08:30,457 --> 00:08:34,817 Speaker 1: major protests inside of Russia. You're not seeing an economic collapse. 137 00:08:34,897 --> 00:08:39,017 Speaker 1: He's able to raise forces, tom he's calling up the reserves. 138 00:08:39,057 --> 00:08:42,777 Speaker 1: That's not a problem. You know, He's standing his ground 139 00:08:42,857 --> 00:08:45,097 Speaker 1: just as well as Zelensky is standing his ground. I 140 00:08:45,097 --> 00:08:49,937 Speaker 1: would say, you know, it's difficult to it's hard to believe, 141 00:08:49,977 --> 00:08:52,617 Speaker 1: but both of them are actually stronger than the day 142 00:08:52,657 --> 00:08:55,457 Speaker 1: that this war started. It's hard to say that with Zelensky, 143 00:08:55,577 --> 00:08:59,617 Speaker 1: since you know, there is still a significant portion of 144 00:08:59,697 --> 00:09:03,337 Speaker 1: Russian ground or Ukrainian ground under Russian control. But he's 145 00:09:03,417 --> 00:09:05,897 Speaker 1: in a very strong position. He's getting he's getting his 146 00:09:05,977 --> 00:09:08,257 Speaker 1: weapons from the West, he's getting a lot of his 147 00:09:08,297 --> 00:09:11,297 Speaker 1: demands met, and the same thing with Putin. He's getting 148 00:09:11,337 --> 00:09:14,817 Speaker 1: what he needs to wage his war inside of Ukraine 149 00:09:14,857 --> 00:09:18,297 Speaker 1: with very little over domestic resistance, and internationally, I don't 150 00:09:18,297 --> 00:09:22,297 Speaker 1: think Putin is as isolated as Western leaders like to say. 151 00:09:22,337 --> 00:09:24,857 Speaker 1: I mean, yes, with the West, but that was to 152 00:09:24,897 --> 00:09:27,537 Speaker 1: be expected. But when it comes to the countries that 153 00:09:27,617 --> 00:09:32,617 Speaker 1: matter to Russia, like India, like China, and other countries 154 00:09:32,657 --> 00:09:36,057 Speaker 1: and really the global South, you know, Putin is not 155 00:09:36,137 --> 00:09:39,137 Speaker 1: a pariet to these countries. I want to tell everybody 156 00:09:39,137 --> 00:09:41,297 Speaker 1: at home for a moment here about My Pillow and 157 00:09:41,337 --> 00:09:43,737 Speaker 1: how they can get the best night's rest of their 158 00:09:43,777 --> 00:09:46,137 Speaker 1: life thanks to Mike Lindell's My Pillow, The Pillows and 159 00:09:46,177 --> 00:09:49,737 Speaker 1: mattress covers. The sheets all amazing. The Geeza dream sheets 160 00:09:49,737 --> 00:09:52,177 Speaker 1: are particularly phenomenal. I sleep on them every night and 161 00:09:52,257 --> 00:09:54,537 Speaker 1: right now Geza dream Sheets coming as low as twenty 162 00:09:54,577 --> 00:09:57,617 Speaker 1: nine ninety eight. When you use my name promo code buck, 163 00:09:58,017 --> 00:09:59,777 Speaker 1: it's so easy. These are gonna be the sheets you 164 00:09:59,777 --> 00:10:01,737 Speaker 1: want to sleep on. You're gonna want multiple pairs of them. 165 00:10:01,737 --> 00:10:03,337 Speaker 1: These are the only sheets you're ever gonna need for 166 00:10:03,377 --> 00:10:06,297 Speaker 1: your bed, for your home. My Pillow products come with 167 00:10:06,337 --> 00:10:08,817 Speaker 1: a ten year warranty, is sixty day money back guarantees, 168 00:10:08,857 --> 00:10:10,777 Speaker 1: so you can sleep on them for eight weeks, getting 169 00:10:10,777 --> 00:10:13,617 Speaker 1: so comfortable, getting a great night's sleep, and you know 170 00:10:13,697 --> 00:10:14,897 Speaker 1: that the whole time. If you don't like him being 171 00:10:14,937 --> 00:10:16,737 Speaker 1: sent him back, but you're not going to go to 172 00:10:16,817 --> 00:10:19,377 Speaker 1: my pillow dot com, click on radio listener specials and 173 00:10:19,457 --> 00:10:23,177 Speaker 1: use promo code buck again Geeza Dreamsheets twenty nine ninety eight. 174 00:10:23,217 --> 00:10:25,257 Speaker 1: When you get to my pillow dot com promo code buck, 175 00:10:25,537 --> 00:10:27,337 Speaker 1: or if you want to call in just eight hundred 176 00:10:27,337 --> 00:10:29,697 Speaker 1: seven nine two three two six nine. That's eight hundred 177 00:10:29,737 --> 00:10:33,697 Speaker 1: seven nine two three two six nine. How do you 178 00:10:33,697 --> 00:10:38,137 Speaker 1: think the Biden administration has handled this so far? You know, 179 00:10:38,497 --> 00:10:44,297 Speaker 1: in the most nonpartisan viewpoint possible. What have it done right? 180 00:10:44,337 --> 00:10:47,697 Speaker 1: What have they done wrong? I would say at the 181 00:10:47,737 --> 00:10:52,297 Speaker 1: outset of the war, the administration was very didn't it 182 00:10:52,377 --> 00:10:55,937 Speaker 1: was didn't have a coherent message. And I think it's 183 00:10:55,977 --> 00:10:59,537 Speaker 1: messaging on Ukraine and it's commitment to Ukraine has improved 184 00:10:59,937 --> 00:11:03,697 Speaker 1: drastically since the beginning of this war. For instance, the 185 00:11:03,737 --> 00:11:07,217 Speaker 1: Biden administration was able to commence Germany to send those 186 00:11:07,297 --> 00:11:09,937 Speaker 1: Leopard two tanks and is going to send him one 187 00:11:10,057 --> 00:11:12,897 Speaker 1: Abrams tanks to the Ukrainians. These are needed if the 188 00:11:12,977 --> 00:11:17,057 Speaker 1: Ukrainians are going to mount it offensive potentially or at 189 00:11:17,097 --> 00:11:21,137 Speaker 1: the very least to conduct the defensive. But yeah, so 190 00:11:21,337 --> 00:11:23,417 Speaker 1: in the beginning, it was, you know, he was all 191 00:11:23,457 --> 00:11:25,897 Speaker 1: over the place, President Biden, in his message, it was, 192 00:11:25,937 --> 00:11:30,217 Speaker 1: it was very incoherent. I think he has organized the 193 00:11:30,257 --> 00:11:35,177 Speaker 1: coalition of Western nations that are supporting Ukraine m fairly well. 194 00:11:35,177 --> 00:11:39,657 Speaker 1: But this isn't perfect, you know. And again, and here's 195 00:11:39,657 --> 00:11:42,897 Speaker 1: another imperfect aspect of this. It seemed like President Biden 196 00:11:42,937 --> 00:11:45,137 Speaker 1: had to be drag kicking and screaming for the Hymn 197 00:11:45,177 --> 00:11:48,617 Speaker 1: to supply American tanks. The Germans weren't going to provide 198 00:11:48,657 --> 00:11:52,057 Speaker 1: tanks to the Ukrainians because they didn't want the Russians 199 00:11:52,057 --> 00:11:55,537 Speaker 1: to potentially use that against them, to as use it 200 00:11:55,617 --> 00:11:58,057 Speaker 1: as a you know, a flash point to escalate against 201 00:11:58,097 --> 00:12:00,617 Speaker 1: the Germans. So the Germans position was, well, if the 202 00:12:00,657 --> 00:12:03,817 Speaker 1: Americans sent tanks too, then you know, it's it's not 203 00:12:03,897 --> 00:12:06,737 Speaker 1: just the Germans doing it, it's it's all of NATO 204 00:12:06,857 --> 00:12:08,897 Speaker 1: doing it. So it gets them under the protection of 205 00:12:08,897 --> 00:12:12,617 Speaker 1: the NATO umbrella. I don't know how, you know, we 206 00:12:12,617 --> 00:12:16,337 Speaker 1: could debate the wisdom of that argument, but you know, 207 00:12:16,337 --> 00:12:18,737 Speaker 1: it took President Biden a while to make that decision, 208 00:12:18,897 --> 00:12:23,217 Speaker 1: but ultimately he has made decisions that have benefited Ukraine. 209 00:12:24,257 --> 00:12:26,737 Speaker 1: Another another aspect of this though that I don't like 210 00:12:26,857 --> 00:12:30,817 Speaker 1: that this administration is doing. I do believe there should 211 00:12:30,857 --> 00:12:35,177 Speaker 1: be accountability for the weapons and aid that is flowing 212 00:12:35,217 --> 00:12:39,017 Speaker 1: into Ukraine. If you even question the idea that you know, 213 00:12:39,097 --> 00:12:42,297 Speaker 1: maybe this isn't being done efficiently, or perhaps there might 214 00:12:42,337 --> 00:12:44,937 Speaker 1: be some corruption inside Ukraine that makes you pro Putin 215 00:12:45,017 --> 00:12:49,337 Speaker 1: and pro Russian. But you know, we've the American public 216 00:12:49,377 --> 00:12:51,217 Speaker 1: has a right, you know, when hundreds of billions of 217 00:12:51,217 --> 00:12:54,257 Speaker 1: dollars over hundred billion dollars now and I guarantee it's 218 00:12:54,257 --> 00:12:56,897 Speaker 1: going to be hundreds of billion dollars, and several years 219 00:12:56,897 --> 00:12:59,417 Speaker 1: it'll be approaching a trillion dollars. The American public has 220 00:12:59,417 --> 00:13:01,617 Speaker 1: a right to know where this money is going and 221 00:13:01,617 --> 00:13:05,177 Speaker 1: how efficiently is it's being used, and this administration is 222 00:13:05,217 --> 00:13:07,817 Speaker 1: not willing to do that. It's it's messaging on that 223 00:13:07,897 --> 00:13:10,457 Speaker 1: issue is just if you're if you want that, then 224 00:13:10,617 --> 00:13:13,017 Speaker 1: you know you must support Russia. You must support Yeah. 225 00:13:13,017 --> 00:13:16,097 Speaker 1: I mean to that end, you often will hear on 226 00:13:16,137 --> 00:13:21,137 Speaker 1: the right very pointed criticism of Ukraine as before the 227 00:13:21,177 --> 00:13:26,817 Speaker 1: invasion a deeply corrupt place. How fair is that assessment 228 00:13:26,937 --> 00:13:30,137 Speaker 1: and how important is that to understanding the politics of 229 00:13:30,177 --> 00:13:33,697 Speaker 1: that country. It's a very fair assessment. I mean, if 230 00:13:33,777 --> 00:13:37,817 Speaker 1: you read the newspaper prior to the Russian and read 231 00:13:37,817 --> 00:13:40,337 Speaker 1: the New York Times, read the Washington Post, or you 232 00:13:40,377 --> 00:13:44,377 Speaker 1: know any other major newspaper, they're filled with stories of corruption, 233 00:13:44,537 --> 00:13:48,457 Speaker 1: Ukrainian corruption. It's political system. But not just that, but 234 00:13:48,537 --> 00:13:53,097 Speaker 1: like it's integration of right ring militias basically such as 235 00:13:53,097 --> 00:13:56,097 Speaker 1: the azof Brigate, which has been made an official unit 236 00:13:56,137 --> 00:13:58,577 Speaker 1: in the military in the Russian I'm sorry, in the 237 00:13:58,697 --> 00:14:04,457 Speaker 1: Ukrainian military. This is a Nazi neo Nazi organization. I 238 00:14:04,497 --> 00:14:08,817 Speaker 1: mean it, And but this has all been whitewashed since 239 00:14:08,897 --> 00:14:13,577 Speaker 1: the since the Russian invasion because any criticism whatsoever of 240 00:14:13,617 --> 00:14:17,497 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians. Look, can we can be concerned about issues 241 00:14:17,497 --> 00:14:22,457 Speaker 1: of corruption and accountability and be concerned about human rights 242 00:14:22,457 --> 00:14:26,097 Speaker 1: and things like right wing militias inside of Ukraine and 243 00:14:26,177 --> 00:14:30,137 Speaker 1: still support Ukraini in its fight against Russia. This this 244 00:14:30,177 --> 00:14:32,337 Speaker 1: idea that you have to be one percent on board 245 00:14:32,777 --> 00:14:34,817 Speaker 1: or you're on the other side. This is just a 246 00:14:35,017 --> 00:14:38,497 Speaker 1: strange polarization of politics that we witnessed over the last 247 00:14:38,497 --> 00:14:42,257 Speaker 1: ten years that is deeply disturbing to me. What would 248 00:14:42,297 --> 00:14:46,737 Speaker 1: have to happen for Russia to stop? You know what? 249 00:14:46,777 --> 00:14:49,337 Speaker 1: That People often ask where is the diplomacy in all 250 00:14:49,337 --> 00:14:53,577 Speaker 1: of this? We're not even really hearing about any negotiations 251 00:14:53,577 --> 00:14:55,897 Speaker 1: certainly happening at the high level here to bring this 252 00:14:55,977 --> 00:14:58,937 Speaker 1: conflict to a close. Maybe something's happening behind closed doors 253 00:14:59,257 --> 00:15:02,497 Speaker 1: we're not aware of. But what is an acceptable end 254 00:15:02,897 --> 00:15:05,377 Speaker 1: to the fighting From the Russian perspective, I mean from 255 00:15:05,377 --> 00:15:08,097 Speaker 1: the Ukrainian perspective, I assume it's get the hell out 256 00:15:08,097 --> 00:15:11,177 Speaker 1: of our country, right, and that's the problem, or you 257 00:15:11,297 --> 00:15:15,457 Speaker 1: won't have meaningful negotiations when both sides, and on the 258 00:15:15,537 --> 00:15:19,417 Speaker 1: Ukrainian side rightfully so maximalist goals, right, The Ukrainian goal 259 00:15:19,537 --> 00:15:22,577 Speaker 1: is get every Russian out of every inch of our country. 260 00:15:22,977 --> 00:15:26,817 Speaker 1: Completely understandable. The Russians position, They just think next for 261 00:15:27,977 --> 00:15:31,497 Speaker 1: territories within Ukraine, and they're going to fight, continue to 262 00:15:31,537 --> 00:15:35,097 Speaker 1: fight for them. When that's the position of each side, 263 00:15:35,217 --> 00:15:37,937 Speaker 1: there is no room for diplomacy, there's no room for talks. 264 00:15:39,177 --> 00:15:42,337 Speaker 1: I think the only way this actually ends is on 265 00:15:42,377 --> 00:15:45,417 Speaker 1: the battlefields. One side has to gain an advantage over 266 00:15:45,457 --> 00:15:48,017 Speaker 1: the other, and I don't see that happening. And that's 267 00:15:48,057 --> 00:15:49,777 Speaker 1: why I think we're going to be in a situation 268 00:15:49,817 --> 00:15:51,577 Speaker 1: where this is going to be a war for a 269 00:15:51,657 --> 00:15:53,377 Speaker 1: lengthy war. Oh that's what I was going to ask 270 00:15:53,377 --> 00:15:55,737 Speaker 1: you next. I hear people saying this could go on 271 00:15:56,697 --> 00:16:01,937 Speaker 1: three years, five years? Who knows? Do both sides, assuming 272 00:16:01,937 --> 00:16:06,737 Speaker 1: the NATO and US support continues to the Ukrainians at 273 00:16:06,737 --> 00:16:08,937 Speaker 1: a similar level to what it has been, do you 274 00:16:08,937 --> 00:16:11,257 Speaker 1: think that both sides would drag on a war for 275 00:16:11,337 --> 00:16:14,817 Speaker 1: five years perhaps more? Well, if you think about it, um, 276 00:16:15,217 --> 00:16:17,257 Speaker 1: the answer to that is, I think the Russians can. 277 00:16:17,697 --> 00:16:21,977 Speaker 1: I'm nuts, very very confident that the Western countries are 278 00:16:22,057 --> 00:16:24,657 Speaker 1: willing to do this. Um, it's a major drag on 279 00:16:24,697 --> 00:16:27,297 Speaker 1: the on the economies. But if you look back, really 280 00:16:27,337 --> 00:16:29,697 Speaker 1: this war has been going on since twenty and fourteen 281 00:16:29,777 --> 00:16:34,937 Speaker 1: when Russian forces a neck invaded portions of the Don 282 00:16:34,977 --> 00:16:38,977 Speaker 1: bust um uh and also in the Crimea right, So 283 00:16:39,017 --> 00:16:41,737 Speaker 1: this war has been but that was a slow, low 284 00:16:41,817 --> 00:16:47,857 Speaker 1: intensity war. A war at this level. Um. Look, the 285 00:16:48,017 --> 00:16:52,817 Speaker 1: US and NATO and western countries can afford to support 286 00:16:52,857 --> 00:16:56,897 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians, um, indefinitely if they wish to do so. 287 00:16:57,017 --> 00:16:59,817 Speaker 1: The question is is will they be willing to do so? 288 00:16:59,857 --> 00:17:02,337 Speaker 1: And the Russians also, they still have some aces up 289 00:17:02,377 --> 00:17:06,177 Speaker 1: their sleeves with the energy weapon, which surprisingly to me, 290 00:17:06,257 --> 00:17:09,537 Speaker 1: they really haven't played to the full extent. They're still 291 00:17:09,577 --> 00:17:14,377 Speaker 1: selling energy to Western countries and that's a that's a 292 00:17:14,577 --> 00:17:16,497 Speaker 1: real up. That's one of the parts of this that 293 00:17:16,577 --> 00:17:19,137 Speaker 1: I think has been so eye opening for a lot 294 00:17:19,177 --> 00:17:22,417 Speaker 1: of people because early on we were told we're going 295 00:17:22,457 --> 00:17:24,937 Speaker 1: to crush them economically, We're not even have to worry 296 00:17:24,937 --> 00:17:27,137 Speaker 1: that much about how the Ukrainians doing the battlefield because 297 00:17:27,177 --> 00:17:30,177 Speaker 1: the Russians once you know, they once they feel their 298 00:17:30,217 --> 00:17:34,497 Speaker 1: sanctions and the Oligarch's mistresses can't buy their channel purses anymore. 299 00:17:34,657 --> 00:17:36,817 Speaker 1: And you know that all this stuff, it's all going 300 00:17:36,857 --> 00:17:40,057 Speaker 1: to come to a halt. Not even close to being true. Right, 301 00:17:40,057 --> 00:17:41,537 Speaker 1: we go back a year to what the what the 302 00:17:41,577 --> 00:17:43,737 Speaker 1: policy community would bide in the White House was saying, 303 00:17:43,937 --> 00:17:46,937 Speaker 1: and where we are now, there's it's almost like there 304 00:17:46,937 --> 00:17:49,217 Speaker 1: were no sanctions, as you have no sense of this 305 00:17:49,297 --> 00:17:53,057 Speaker 1: being Have we been more hurt economically than the Russians? 306 00:17:54,697 --> 00:17:58,177 Speaker 1: I think the West has been hurt more economically. You know, prices, 307 00:17:58,417 --> 00:18:03,377 Speaker 1: energy prices in Europe are phenomenally high, and here in 308 00:18:03,417 --> 00:18:08,217 Speaker 1: the US significantly I um. And you know, look this 309 00:18:08,217 --> 00:18:13,177 Speaker 1: this has an effect downstream in the economy, and I 310 00:18:13,217 --> 00:18:16,097 Speaker 1: don't think the Russians have experienced that pain. They haven't 311 00:18:16,097 --> 00:18:18,937 Speaker 1: experienced the economic pain that we have here in the West. 312 00:18:19,217 --> 00:18:22,457 Speaker 1: And I think the Russians can actually make that pain worse. 313 00:18:22,817 --> 00:18:27,137 Speaker 1: That's the real interesting thing about this Warbuck is the Russians. 314 00:18:27,417 --> 00:18:29,337 Speaker 1: You know, if they really wanted to hurt the West, 315 00:18:29,457 --> 00:18:33,497 Speaker 1: they could shut off the flow of their petroleum flows, 316 00:18:33,577 --> 00:18:36,457 Speaker 1: right the gas and natural natural gas, oil and all 317 00:18:36,497 --> 00:18:39,337 Speaker 1: of that. But they haven't. They continue to sell to 318 00:18:39,377 --> 00:18:42,817 Speaker 1: the West while they're fighting Ukraine while the West is 319 00:18:43,137 --> 00:18:47,097 Speaker 1: arming the Ukrainians. It's it's a real it's bizarre. And 320 00:18:47,137 --> 00:18:50,217 Speaker 1: the West, you know, you have Western countries, Western leaders 321 00:18:50,257 --> 00:18:53,697 Speaker 1: saying we will do everything we can to stop Putin 322 00:18:53,937 --> 00:18:58,577 Speaker 1: except stop buying their natural resources. I don't know how 323 00:18:58,617 --> 00:19:01,177 Speaker 1: long that can last. I guess that could last indefinitely. 324 00:19:01,657 --> 00:19:04,137 Speaker 1: But you know, you get into some nineteen eighty four 325 00:19:04,377 --> 00:19:09,857 Speaker 1: Orwellian endless war type situation with this. Again, I don't 326 00:19:09,857 --> 00:19:12,617 Speaker 1: know how long. That's what the tolerance of the West 327 00:19:12,737 --> 00:19:15,257 Speaker 1: is though. But look, I go back to Afghanistan, I 328 00:19:15,297 --> 00:19:18,577 Speaker 1: go back to Iraq. We couldn't tolerate low intensity wars. 329 00:19:18,817 --> 00:19:22,257 Speaker 1: Granted they were breeding fought by our troops that were 330 00:19:22,777 --> 00:19:28,497 Speaker 1: significantly less than what we're witnessing in Ukraine. So is 331 00:19:28,497 --> 00:19:30,977 Speaker 1: it two years? Is it five years? Is it ten years? 332 00:19:31,217 --> 00:19:34,377 Speaker 1: If the Russians are willing to stick it out, I 333 00:19:34,457 --> 00:19:37,817 Speaker 1: believe time is on their side. Ultimately, just take a 334 00:19:37,857 --> 00:19:40,057 Speaker 1: moment out there to tell everybody they should be on 335 00:19:40,097 --> 00:19:42,977 Speaker 1: the lookout if they're a Team Mobile subscriber Team Mobiles 336 00:19:42,977 --> 00:19:46,217 Speaker 1: investigating a data breach that exposed sensitive personal information of 337 00:19:46,377 --> 00:19:49,977 Speaker 1: thirty seven million customers. Cyber hackers get this stuff, they 338 00:19:49,977 --> 00:19:52,577 Speaker 1: put it online with a dark web, and then cyber 339 00:19:52,617 --> 00:19:55,057 Speaker 1: thieves use it to steal your identity. But what can 340 00:19:55,097 --> 00:19:57,057 Speaker 1: you do about this? I do actually have an answer 341 00:19:57,097 --> 00:20:01,177 Speaker 1: for you LifeLock. Lifelocks online identity theft protection includes monitoring 342 00:20:01,217 --> 00:20:03,617 Speaker 1: the web twenty four seven for regular activities and new 343 00:20:03,617 --> 00:20:06,377 Speaker 1: account openings. They see unusual activity in your name and 344 00:20:06,377 --> 00:20:08,977 Speaker 1: you're a LifeLock customer like I have been for years, 345 00:20:09,097 --> 00:20:11,617 Speaker 1: then you'll get an alert. That text comes via phone 346 00:20:11,697 --> 00:20:13,697 Speaker 1: or email, whatever takes to get you that information in 347 00:20:13,737 --> 00:20:16,617 Speaker 1: a timely manner. It's important to understand how cybercrime and 348 00:20:16,657 --> 00:20:18,657 Speaker 1: identity theft are affecting our lives, and if you do 349 00:20:18,697 --> 00:20:21,697 Speaker 1: become a victim of identity theft, a dedicated LifeLock US 350 00:20:21,777 --> 00:20:24,497 Speaker 1: based restoration specialist will work to fix it. No one 351 00:20:24,537 --> 00:20:27,217 Speaker 1: can prevent all identity theft or monitor all transactions at 352 00:20:27,217 --> 00:20:30,217 Speaker 1: all businesses, but it's easy to help protect yourself with LifeLock. 353 00:20:30,537 --> 00:20:33,257 Speaker 1: Joy Now save up a twenty five percent off your 354 00:20:33,297 --> 00:20:36,337 Speaker 1: first year with promo code buck at LifeLock dot com. 355 00:20:36,337 --> 00:20:38,657 Speaker 1: That's LifeLock dot com. Go to that website, make sure 356 00:20:38,657 --> 00:20:40,577 Speaker 1: you use promo code buck when you sign up or 357 00:20:40,617 --> 00:20:43,577 Speaker 1: you can just call this number one eight hundred LifeLock, 358 00:20:43,657 --> 00:20:46,097 Speaker 1: but make sure use promo code buck You'll get twenty 359 00:20:46,137 --> 00:20:50,897 Speaker 1: five percent off one eight hundred LifeLock bill. You know, 360 00:20:50,937 --> 00:20:52,857 Speaker 1: there's some analysis going around that I will hear from 361 00:20:52,897 --> 00:20:56,857 Speaker 1: different experts, because one of the questions that I think 362 00:20:56,857 --> 00:20:58,897 Speaker 1: every American who is paying attention to this has is 363 00:21:00,257 --> 00:21:04,137 Speaker 1: why do we care to this degree meeting sending all 364 00:21:04,177 --> 00:21:07,577 Speaker 1: this equipment. One hundred billion dollars of taxpayer dollars going 365 00:21:07,617 --> 00:21:10,577 Speaker 1: to this And it seems that what I hear is 366 00:21:10,617 --> 00:21:15,337 Speaker 1: a combination of almost like Domino theory when we were 367 00:21:15,337 --> 00:21:18,257 Speaker 1: worried about communism and you know, the fall of Vietnam, 368 00:21:18,377 --> 00:21:21,857 Speaker 1: and oh, if they go, then others will go. But 369 00:21:21,977 --> 00:21:25,257 Speaker 1: in this case it's if they take all of Ukraine, 370 00:21:26,017 --> 00:21:29,097 Speaker 1: then Poland is next, or some other countries next. But 371 00:21:29,377 --> 00:21:33,097 Speaker 1: Article five would seem to me to indicate, given the 372 00:21:33,377 --> 00:21:35,417 Speaker 1: first of all the problems Russia has even had just 373 00:21:35,457 --> 00:21:39,177 Speaker 1: with Ukraine, that there won't be any NATO country that's 374 00:21:39,257 --> 00:21:41,937 Speaker 1: next in this regard? What do you make of all that? 375 00:21:42,017 --> 00:21:45,977 Speaker 1: What do you think? It's it's a serious consideration that 376 00:21:46,017 --> 00:21:48,097 Speaker 1: if we don't stop them in Ukraine, we're gonna have 377 00:21:48,137 --> 00:21:52,297 Speaker 1: to stop them in Berlin. Yeah, I don't think that's 378 00:21:52,617 --> 00:21:57,377 Speaker 1: a reasonable way to think of this war. I said earlier. 379 00:21:57,697 --> 00:22:00,017 Speaker 1: I think within the first month one of the things 380 00:22:00,057 --> 00:22:04,137 Speaker 1: that this war showed us was that the Russians are 381 00:22:04,177 --> 00:22:07,457 Speaker 1: not a direct conventional military threat to NATO, perhaps to 382 00:22:07,537 --> 00:22:10,777 Speaker 1: the Baltic countries, but again we have Article five the Russians. 383 00:22:10,977 --> 00:22:13,737 Speaker 1: I think the Russians can see now that the US 384 00:22:13,897 --> 00:22:17,537 Speaker 1: and NATO will unite and defend its territory. But Ukraine 385 00:22:17,577 --> 00:22:20,097 Speaker 1: is not a NATO member and the Russians, I mean, look, 386 00:22:20,097 --> 00:22:23,937 Speaker 1: they couldn't push pass Kiev and they're nowhere near it today. Um, 387 00:22:23,977 --> 00:22:27,217 Speaker 1: they're they're you know, they're on the southern and eastern 388 00:22:27,337 --> 00:22:29,777 Speaker 1: and a little bit in the northeastern portions. They control 389 00:22:29,857 --> 00:22:33,217 Speaker 1: probably around fifteen percent of Ukraine. But you know that 390 00:22:33,217 --> 00:22:35,377 Speaker 1: that was when they throw the probably their best punch, 391 00:22:35,937 --> 00:22:38,017 Speaker 1: and so if they're you know, I don't think we 392 00:22:38,097 --> 00:22:40,737 Speaker 1: need to be sitting around here worrying about the Russians 393 00:22:40,737 --> 00:22:45,257 Speaker 1: in Berlin and warsaw. Um. I do find it ironic 394 00:22:45,297 --> 00:22:46,977 Speaker 1: that of many of the same people who you know, 395 00:22:47,137 --> 00:22:51,937 Speaker 1: discounted the domino theory theory with Vietnam, Um, you know, 396 00:22:52,137 --> 00:22:55,817 Speaker 1: now make their own domino theory right, if their own 397 00:22:55,897 --> 00:23:00,057 Speaker 1: version right, the slope gets very to be exactly. You 398 00:23:00,097 --> 00:23:03,057 Speaker 1: know this is you know, it's a you know, it's 399 00:23:03,137 --> 00:23:06,697 Speaker 1: it's selective analysis. And you know, I think you have 400 00:23:06,697 --> 00:23:08,137 Speaker 1: to you have to look at this. You have to 401 00:23:08,177 --> 00:23:12,417 Speaker 1: look at what's happened here and recognize that the Russians 402 00:23:12,417 --> 00:23:14,217 Speaker 1: are not a threat. You know, that's not the argument. 403 00:23:14,257 --> 00:23:17,897 Speaker 1: The argument is Ukraine is an independent country, it's an ally, 404 00:23:17,977 --> 00:23:19,857 Speaker 1: it's a friend, and we're going to help them. We're 405 00:23:19,857 --> 00:23:22,857 Speaker 1: going to help them word off the aggression of a 406 00:23:23,657 --> 00:23:28,457 Speaker 1: of the Putin and I could support right, so help 407 00:23:28,537 --> 00:23:31,097 Speaker 1: me help me this if we're giving everybody listening to 408 00:23:31,137 --> 00:23:34,977 Speaker 1: this a full spectrum argument about about all this, which 409 00:23:34,977 --> 00:23:38,897 Speaker 1: is which is obviously the goal. Um, when it comes 410 00:23:38,937 --> 00:23:43,177 Speaker 1: to Russia, let's say controlling half of Ukraine. If if that, 411 00:23:43,297 --> 00:23:46,777 Speaker 1: if let's say they got to Kiev or Kiv and 412 00:23:47,577 --> 00:23:49,817 Speaker 1: roughly speaking, they were in control of a solid half 413 00:23:49,817 --> 00:23:51,377 Speaker 1: of the country, and then the Russian said, all right, 414 00:23:51,417 --> 00:23:54,737 Speaker 1: you know what, fine, we'll stop here. We're we're we'll 415 00:23:54,777 --> 00:23:57,537 Speaker 1: take this part. We've got the Russian speaking areas of 416 00:23:57,577 --> 00:24:00,577 Speaker 1: eastern Ukraine. We've got the industrial heartland. We'll stop here. 417 00:24:00,897 --> 00:24:03,857 Speaker 1: What's the worst what's the worst case scenario if that 418 00:24:03,897 --> 00:24:07,217 Speaker 1: were to happen, from our interest, from from America's interest, 419 00:24:08,417 --> 00:24:12,297 Speaker 1: you know, from America's interests, it's that the Russians would 420 00:24:12,337 --> 00:24:16,137 Speaker 1: have gotten away with aggression, you know, the United States 421 00:24:16,177 --> 00:24:17,737 Speaker 1: since the end of the Cold War. Look, it's the 422 00:24:17,777 --> 00:24:21,697 Speaker 1: reason why we went to war against Sad. I'm a saint, right, 423 00:24:21,737 --> 00:24:25,257 Speaker 1: he invaded Kuwait, So the United States intervene. We want 424 00:24:25,257 --> 00:24:27,897 Speaker 1: to set a precedent that one country doesn't invade another 425 00:24:27,977 --> 00:24:32,057 Speaker 1: and take it over, so that that would be a downside, 426 00:24:32,057 --> 00:24:34,217 Speaker 1: I mean I don't but again I don't see that 427 00:24:34,257 --> 00:24:36,697 Speaker 1: as a direct threat to NATO. It's a threat to 428 00:24:36,777 --> 00:24:40,697 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians. It's probably a threat to other countries that 429 00:24:40,737 --> 00:24:43,617 Speaker 1: are not within NATO. You know, if your country is 430 00:24:43,657 --> 00:24:47,177 Speaker 1: like Georgia, and you know, you know, in m for 431 00:24:47,497 --> 00:24:51,897 Speaker 1: any other former Soviet Republic of Kazakhstan for instance, Yeah, 432 00:24:51,977 --> 00:24:54,217 Speaker 1: those countries would be very concerned that the Russians are 433 00:24:54,217 --> 00:24:56,857 Speaker 1: trying to put together the Soviet Union. But again, the 434 00:24:56,897 --> 00:25:01,617 Speaker 1: Russians have shown us that they aren't militarily capable of 435 00:25:01,617 --> 00:25:03,897 Speaker 1: invading NATO. I mean, I would say the Russian military 436 00:25:03,977 --> 00:25:08,417 Speaker 1: is probably won't have that capability for ten to fifteen years, 437 00:25:08,937 --> 00:25:11,337 Speaker 1: given on what it's spended. Would it have to put 438 00:25:11,417 --> 00:25:13,857 Speaker 1: back together and how it have to you know, train 439 00:25:13,937 --> 00:25:18,337 Speaker 1: an entirely new military and learn to fight a different way. 440 00:25:18,457 --> 00:25:22,497 Speaker 1: And you know, I just I don't view that would 441 00:25:22,537 --> 00:25:25,057 Speaker 1: not be the worst case scenario for the United States 442 00:25:25,137 --> 00:25:28,417 Speaker 1: in the sense that like it would leave a direct 443 00:25:28,497 --> 00:25:31,017 Speaker 1: threat to nature. You would have a rump Ukrainian government 444 00:25:31,057 --> 00:25:33,857 Speaker 1: if there, and I would expect the West to arm 445 00:25:33,937 --> 00:25:37,337 Speaker 1: that significantly in order to be able to defend itself. 446 00:25:37,497 --> 00:25:42,057 Speaker 1: Are there any energy considerations or the change in pipeline 447 00:25:42,497 --> 00:25:49,257 Speaker 1: or production of natural gas of oil that a Russian 448 00:25:49,937 --> 00:25:53,617 Speaker 1: seizure of most or all of Ukraine would would bring 449 00:25:53,657 --> 00:25:55,697 Speaker 1: to bear? You know what, Would it make things markedly 450 00:25:55,737 --> 00:25:58,337 Speaker 1: worse in terms of the pressure the Kremlin could bring 451 00:25:58,337 --> 00:26:02,017 Speaker 1: to bear on Germany, Poland, et cetera. No, I don't 452 00:26:02,057 --> 00:26:04,897 Speaker 1: think there it would be significant. There's a numerous pipelines 453 00:26:04,937 --> 00:26:06,897 Speaker 1: that are running through Ukraine and these are some of 454 00:26:06,937 --> 00:26:10,457 Speaker 1: these are still operational while this war is on going. 455 00:26:10,617 --> 00:26:13,857 Speaker 1: So the Russians have shown that they're again, they've shown 456 00:26:13,897 --> 00:26:16,417 Speaker 1: that they're willing to sell US oil to fund their 457 00:26:16,417 --> 00:26:19,737 Speaker 1: war machine, and we're willing to pay for it. So 458 00:26:20,217 --> 00:26:23,257 Speaker 1: I don't you know, the only consideration there is if 459 00:26:23,297 --> 00:26:27,177 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians cut those bylines in order to punish the Russians, right, 460 00:26:27,457 --> 00:26:29,737 Speaker 1: But this one I don't I couldn't foresee this happening 461 00:26:30,177 --> 00:26:34,417 Speaker 1: because the West still wants to buy that. Yeah, whatever 462 00:26:34,457 --> 00:26:37,857 Speaker 1: happened to that pipeline that just mysteriously exploded under the 463 00:26:37,897 --> 00:26:43,377 Speaker 1: water bill, it's a mystery. I don't know. I don't 464 00:26:43,417 --> 00:26:45,817 Speaker 1: know why the Russians would blow up their own infant looking. 465 00:26:45,897 --> 00:26:48,377 Speaker 1: I know there's tons of conspiracy. There were theories out 466 00:26:48,417 --> 00:26:50,977 Speaker 1: there on this. I don't know what the answer is, 467 00:26:51,017 --> 00:26:53,537 Speaker 1: But I can't see the Russians, who paid a lot 468 00:26:53,537 --> 00:26:56,497 Speaker 1: of money to lay these pipelines, decide to blow it 469 00:26:56,577 --> 00:26:59,617 Speaker 1: up when they're more than willing to sell US oil 470 00:26:59,657 --> 00:27:02,137 Speaker 1: and natural gas flow. People who are saying it's a 471 00:27:02,137 --> 00:27:05,337 Speaker 1: false flag to excuse Russian aggression the Russians had already invaded, 472 00:27:05,457 --> 00:27:07,217 Speaker 1: I don't think they need any I don't think people 473 00:27:07,297 --> 00:27:09,257 Speaker 1: needs to play that game. I think he just goes 474 00:27:09,297 --> 00:27:11,377 Speaker 1: after who he wants to go after. So that that 475 00:27:11,537 --> 00:27:13,457 Speaker 1: never really made very much very much sense to me 476 00:27:13,457 --> 00:27:16,097 Speaker 1: at all. As an explanation, I haven't I've just seen 477 00:27:16,137 --> 00:27:19,457 Speaker 1: any evidence that was actually detonated. It's possible that this 478 00:27:19,537 --> 00:27:22,577 Speaker 1: was an accident, that there was some type of, you know, 479 00:27:22,857 --> 00:27:25,417 Speaker 1: a natural event that caused this. I don't know, but 480 00:27:26,137 --> 00:27:28,377 Speaker 1: I do know that it makes no sense for the 481 00:27:28,417 --> 00:27:30,617 Speaker 1: Russians to have blown up their own pipeline. That they're 482 00:27:30,617 --> 00:27:33,737 Speaker 1: making a lot of money off of them. Yeah, no, total, 483 00:27:33,777 --> 00:27:37,217 Speaker 1: I mean putin just like everybody, Russians, the Russian government, 484 00:27:37,217 --> 00:27:39,617 Speaker 1: they're like money. They like their money, and they need 485 00:27:39,617 --> 00:27:41,817 Speaker 1: that money to fund their w of course. Well that's 486 00:27:41,817 --> 00:27:44,017 Speaker 1: so this is really transitioning into the next thing I 487 00:27:44,057 --> 00:27:46,617 Speaker 1: want to ask you, which is, how could we make 488 00:27:46,697 --> 00:27:51,737 Speaker 1: it painful enough for Russia that they do decide to stop. 489 00:27:52,457 --> 00:27:55,097 Speaker 1: Maybe they are at least willing to make some kind 490 00:27:55,137 --> 00:27:57,497 Speaker 1: of concessions. Let's say the Russia. What would it take 491 00:27:57,537 --> 00:27:59,417 Speaker 1: to get the Russians to sit down and say, you 492 00:27:59,457 --> 00:28:03,217 Speaker 1: know what, we'll go back to the de facto call it, 493 00:28:03,697 --> 00:28:07,257 Speaker 1: you know, well pre twenty twenty two. But let's say 494 00:28:07,537 --> 00:28:10,457 Speaker 1: back to basically where things were starting around twenty Artine 495 00:28:10,537 --> 00:28:13,817 Speaker 1: with the invasion of Don Boss by the paramilitaries and 496 00:28:13,817 --> 00:28:15,617 Speaker 1: all that. You know, we'll kind of go back to 497 00:28:15,737 --> 00:28:18,577 Speaker 1: that line. What would it take for them to do that? 498 00:28:18,737 --> 00:28:21,057 Speaker 1: Is it just is it just casualties because it feels 499 00:28:21,057 --> 00:28:23,977 Speaker 1: like economically speaking, we don't have the pressure to bring 500 00:28:23,977 --> 00:28:26,897 Speaker 1: you bear on them. Yeah, and the Russians have shown 501 00:28:27,097 --> 00:28:30,257 Speaker 1: right we if countries won't buy those oil that oiler 502 00:28:30,337 --> 00:28:33,057 Speaker 1: that gas, they'll sell it to other markets because you know, 503 00:28:33,057 --> 00:28:38,017 Speaker 1: look oil gas, it's like cash, it's money. It's fungible, right, 504 00:28:38,257 --> 00:28:41,537 Speaker 1: there's always someone that's out there willing to buy. So 505 00:28:41,977 --> 00:28:44,737 Speaker 1: I think it would take It would be a significant 506 00:28:44,777 --> 00:28:47,337 Speaker 1: military defeat. You would have the Russians that would have 507 00:28:47,377 --> 00:28:50,617 Speaker 1: to lose just significant amount of forces, but material like 508 00:28:50,657 --> 00:28:53,217 Speaker 1: they'd have to lose a large part of their tanks 509 00:28:53,257 --> 00:28:56,137 Speaker 1: and their air force would have to be severely armed. 510 00:28:56,577 --> 00:28:58,137 Speaker 1: And I don't think you could do a lot of 511 00:28:58,137 --> 00:29:01,497 Speaker 1: this without striking inside of Russia. And this is one 512 00:29:01,537 --> 00:29:04,657 Speaker 1: of those ones where remember you asked the question about 513 00:29:04,737 --> 00:29:08,817 Speaker 1: what might cause an exchange of nuclear weapons? Right, that's 514 00:29:08,857 --> 00:29:12,097 Speaker 1: another one. If if the if the Ukrainians did um, 515 00:29:12,257 --> 00:29:15,617 Speaker 1: you know, using weapons that we supply, decided to strike 516 00:29:15,697 --> 00:29:19,057 Speaker 1: deep into Russia in order to hurt the Russians um, 517 00:29:19,097 --> 00:29:23,937 Speaker 1: you know, supply depots, air air bases, um, places where 518 00:29:24,057 --> 00:29:27,217 Speaker 1: churches are mustering. They would have to hit them really hard, 519 00:29:27,257 --> 00:29:30,897 Speaker 1: buck in order to you know, significant casualties and significant 520 00:29:30,937 --> 00:29:33,977 Speaker 1: loss and mercuriale. That would force the Russians like it 521 00:29:34,017 --> 00:29:37,137 Speaker 1: would It would create a situation where that they didn't 522 00:29:37,177 --> 00:29:40,857 Speaker 1: withdraw they can it would possibly collapse. But keep in mind, 523 00:29:40,857 --> 00:29:44,697 Speaker 1: the Ukrainian position is that's not good enough. Losing Crimea 524 00:29:44,737 --> 00:29:47,297 Speaker 1: isn't good enough. Losing those eastern areas of the Don 525 00:29:47,337 --> 00:29:50,137 Speaker 1: Boss isn't good enough. They want the Russians out fully now. 526 00:29:50,217 --> 00:29:52,777 Speaker 1: And that's you know, that's that's going to be a 527 00:29:52,777 --> 00:29:54,857 Speaker 1: hard sell. I don't think you know, it would take it. 528 00:29:54,937 --> 00:29:56,937 Speaker 1: Like you said, it would take a significant military to 529 00:29:57,017 --> 00:29:59,457 Speaker 1: eat in order for the Russians to go there. We're 530 00:29:59,497 --> 00:30:03,217 Speaker 1: already sending over Abrams tanks. Uh. What the Germans are 531 00:30:03,217 --> 00:30:05,617 Speaker 1: sending over Leopard tanks is the right, So they're sending 532 00:30:05,657 --> 00:30:08,377 Speaker 1: over yeah, and some of their stuff too. This is 533 00:30:08,977 --> 00:30:15,057 Speaker 1: pretty front and weaponry for Western powers. I assume we're 534 00:30:15,057 --> 00:30:18,257 Speaker 1: providing all kinds of training, intelligence, and logistics support that 535 00:30:18,297 --> 00:30:20,217 Speaker 1: isn't even really talked about. But that's just the nature 536 00:30:20,217 --> 00:30:22,337 Speaker 1: of how these things work, how these conflicts play out. 537 00:30:23,617 --> 00:30:26,937 Speaker 1: So that's all underway. Is there anything that we could 538 00:30:26,977 --> 00:30:30,777 Speaker 1: give them that we wouldn't have to operate ourselves that 539 00:30:31,577 --> 00:30:34,937 Speaker 1: would be a battlefield game changer? Or is it just 540 00:30:35,577 --> 00:30:38,137 Speaker 1: no one thing we get into the Charlie Wilson's war 541 00:30:39,457 --> 00:30:42,137 Speaker 1: Mike Vickers assessment right that it's not one weapon system 542 00:30:42,137 --> 00:30:44,737 Speaker 1: for the Mujahideen against the Soviets. It's you just got 543 00:30:44,737 --> 00:30:47,977 Speaker 1: to give them the smorgus board. You gotta give him everything, right. 544 00:30:48,617 --> 00:30:51,017 Speaker 1: Is there anything that we could give them that would 545 00:30:51,057 --> 00:30:52,937 Speaker 1: really make much of a difference or is it just 546 00:30:53,017 --> 00:30:55,937 Speaker 1: keep giving them everything we've been giving them. I think 547 00:30:55,937 --> 00:30:58,097 Speaker 1: we have to continue giving them what they had, what 548 00:30:58,297 --> 00:31:00,777 Speaker 1: we've been giving them, and it would be so for instance, 549 00:31:00,817 --> 00:31:04,177 Speaker 1: the tanks that we're supplying US is basically supplying a 550 00:31:04,217 --> 00:31:07,537 Speaker 1: company at tanks. Somebody's around twelve or thirteen tanks. That's 551 00:31:08,417 --> 00:31:10,937 Speaker 1: fine for a small area, but that's not going to 552 00:31:11,017 --> 00:31:14,337 Speaker 1: make a strategic difference in the wards a minor tactical difference. 553 00:31:14,337 --> 00:31:16,137 Speaker 1: And I believe all the tanks put together that the 554 00:31:16,257 --> 00:31:20,537 Speaker 1: US the Brits are also supplying challenger tanks, it'll fill 555 00:31:20,577 --> 00:31:24,897 Speaker 1: out about a regiment, an armored regiment. That's good, but 556 00:31:24,977 --> 00:31:26,497 Speaker 1: that isn't I don't think that's enough to drive the 557 00:31:26,537 --> 00:31:28,857 Speaker 1: Russian I mean the Russians have. The Russians have thousands 558 00:31:28,857 --> 00:31:32,257 Speaker 1: of tanks, right, I mean, we're exactly So we would 559 00:31:32,297 --> 00:31:35,137 Speaker 1: have to give them things in quantities that we can't 560 00:31:35,177 --> 00:31:38,137 Speaker 1: possibly give them. And that's the real problem. Keep in mind, 561 00:31:38,857 --> 00:31:41,697 Speaker 1: and a lot of these are just plain old artillery shells. 562 00:31:41,737 --> 00:31:44,737 Speaker 1: The US has pillage stockpiles. There was an article in 563 00:31:44,737 --> 00:31:46,217 Speaker 1: the New York Times about this, and I believe a 564 00:31:46,257 --> 00:31:49,417 Speaker 1: week or so ago, where they pillaged hundreds of thousands 565 00:31:49,457 --> 00:31:52,137 Speaker 1: of rounds from a stockpile in Israel and another in 566 00:31:52,177 --> 00:31:57,097 Speaker 1: South Korea. Are these are stockpiled in case of conflicts 567 00:31:57,097 --> 00:32:00,257 Speaker 1: in these regions, obviously the one in South Korea, in 568 00:32:00,257 --> 00:32:02,377 Speaker 1: case there is a war either with North Korea or 569 00:32:02,457 --> 00:32:06,057 Speaker 1: a war with China. So we're trying to rob Peter. 570 00:32:06,617 --> 00:32:09,657 Speaker 1: Where we are robbing Peter to pay Paul here, and 571 00:32:09,737 --> 00:32:13,857 Speaker 1: we're not given Peter anything back. So we are our munitions. 572 00:32:13,857 --> 00:32:17,817 Speaker 1: We haven't put our factories, our munitions factories on a 573 00:32:17,857 --> 00:32:21,017 Speaker 1: wartime footing. So again I mentioned this earlier. We're providing 574 00:32:21,137 --> 00:32:26,257 Speaker 1: Ukrainians with with with shelves from our stockpiles, with missions, 575 00:32:26,297 --> 00:32:29,897 Speaker 1: with tanks and such from our stockpiles. Um, what we're 576 00:32:29,897 --> 00:32:33,137 Speaker 1: manufacturing now isn't going to replace what we've given them, 577 00:32:33,417 --> 00:32:35,657 Speaker 1: and at some point it's gonna We're going to run 578 00:32:35,697 --> 00:32:39,297 Speaker 1: out if we don't increase the way we're producing these weapons. 579 00:32:39,337 --> 00:32:40,777 Speaker 1: So we'd have to give them a lot more than 580 00:32:40,777 --> 00:32:43,617 Speaker 1: what we're giving them, as well as have the capability 581 00:32:43,697 --> 00:32:46,897 Speaker 1: to restock. And this is why countries like Germany and 582 00:32:47,057 --> 00:32:52,777 Speaker 1: other countries are concerned about providing the Ukrainians with their tanks, 583 00:32:52,777 --> 00:32:55,977 Speaker 1: and particularly the Germany. The Germans right about a year ago, 584 00:32:56,097 --> 00:32:58,217 Speaker 1: right at least right before or after the wars started, 585 00:32:58,257 --> 00:33:00,257 Speaker 1: they were there was an article out where that I 586 00:33:00,257 --> 00:33:02,817 Speaker 1: believe the German Defense minister basically or it was a 587 00:33:02,857 --> 00:33:06,017 Speaker 1: German army chief of staff basically said the German army 588 00:33:06,097 --> 00:33:09,857 Speaker 1: was broken that you know, it can't put units in 589 00:33:09,897 --> 00:33:12,857 Speaker 1: the field, It's maintenance was poor on its tanks and 590 00:33:12,937 --> 00:33:17,177 Speaker 1: armored fighting vehicles. So the last thing the country like 591 00:33:17,257 --> 00:33:20,857 Speaker 1: Germany wants to do is give up its um things 592 00:33:20,897 --> 00:33:24,097 Speaker 1: that are working to Ukraine when they can't even manage 593 00:33:24,137 --> 00:33:27,217 Speaker 1: what they have now and the US isn't in that situation, 594 00:33:27,617 --> 00:33:29,857 Speaker 1: but we might be there in six months. It might 595 00:33:29,897 --> 00:33:32,617 Speaker 1: take a year. So what we you know, a lot 596 00:33:32,657 --> 00:33:34,977 Speaker 1: of this is, you know, again, we'd have to increase 597 00:33:35,017 --> 00:33:38,377 Speaker 1: the amount that we're giving them. We have to increase 598 00:33:38,577 --> 00:33:42,217 Speaker 1: the quantity that we're making to fill our own stocks 599 00:33:42,217 --> 00:33:45,337 Speaker 1: and give even more to the Ukrainians. So you know, 600 00:33:45,377 --> 00:33:46,817 Speaker 1: and also I do think that you know, if we 601 00:33:46,897 --> 00:33:49,377 Speaker 1: did this, and I'm not advocating, I'm just saying, this 602 00:33:49,457 --> 00:33:52,817 Speaker 1: is something being discussed, modernizing the Ukrainian Air Force and 603 00:33:52,857 --> 00:33:56,217 Speaker 1: their air defense system. I swear we didn't. We didn't. 604 00:33:56,257 --> 00:33:57,857 Speaker 1: We didn't plan this. I was gonna say, are we 605 00:33:57,897 --> 00:33:59,777 Speaker 1: going to talk about no fly zone again this year? 606 00:33:59,897 --> 00:34:01,817 Speaker 1: Is that? Is that what's going to happen, or at 607 00:34:01,897 --> 00:34:06,097 Speaker 1: least the provision of advanced fighters and other aircraft, fixed wing, rotary, 608 00:34:06,137 --> 00:34:09,137 Speaker 1: all that stuff. But that's not a quick solution, buck right. 609 00:34:09,417 --> 00:34:13,137 Speaker 1: It takes, if not years, to train pilots and maintenance 610 00:34:13,177 --> 00:34:17,537 Speaker 1: crews and whatnot in order to to make these get 611 00:34:17,937 --> 00:34:21,497 Speaker 1: to get them in the air right, or to integrate 612 00:34:22,017 --> 00:34:25,337 Speaker 1: complicated missile defense systems. Right now, we're providing a hodgepodge. 613 00:34:25,577 --> 00:34:28,817 Speaker 1: I think the Ukrainians need to have a standardization of 614 00:34:28,857 --> 00:34:32,577 Speaker 1: their weapons systems as well, because again they're getting Ukrainians 615 00:34:32,657 --> 00:34:35,497 Speaker 1: or I'm sorry, United kick tanks from the United Kingdom, 616 00:34:35,617 --> 00:34:38,057 Speaker 1: or of tanks from Germany thanks from the United States. 617 00:34:38,297 --> 00:34:40,897 Speaker 1: These aren't compatible. They might fire the same shells, but 618 00:34:40,897 --> 00:34:44,937 Speaker 1: they have very different needs, very different maintenance needs and 619 00:34:44,977 --> 00:34:47,537 Speaker 1: logistical needs to keep these things up and running. And 620 00:34:47,577 --> 00:34:50,017 Speaker 1: at some point that wears on the Ukrainians and that's 621 00:34:50,017 --> 00:34:51,617 Speaker 1: a big cost for us in order to try to 622 00:34:51,657 --> 00:34:54,337 Speaker 1: keep those things running. I mean, what's the real value 623 00:34:54,377 --> 00:34:58,577 Speaker 1: of thirteen American m one Abian tanks in a particular 624 00:34:58,657 --> 00:35:02,537 Speaker 1: sector of a particular theater in this work, And I'm 625 00:35:02,577 --> 00:35:05,937 Speaker 1: sure it would be significant, But over the overall picture, 626 00:35:06,057 --> 00:35:08,297 Speaker 1: thirteen American tanks aren't going to make a big difference. 627 00:35:08,377 --> 00:35:11,177 Speaker 1: So I can say this from from having been in 628 00:35:11,177 --> 00:35:16,857 Speaker 1: Afghanistan in twenty ten and seeing the country level assessments 629 00:35:16,937 --> 00:35:19,777 Speaker 1: at the highest level that we're being given to the 630 00:35:19,817 --> 00:35:22,777 Speaker 1: four star in theater that the President was reading. I 631 00:35:23,217 --> 00:35:26,937 Speaker 1: was seeing all that. An honest reading of it was 632 00:35:27,497 --> 00:35:28,977 Speaker 1: there are a lot of people who are trying very 633 00:35:28,977 --> 00:35:32,857 Speaker 1: hard on the US side to stabilize Afghanistan and make 634 00:35:32,857 --> 00:35:35,297 Speaker 1: it a place that could fight for itself. It wasn't 635 00:35:35,337 --> 00:35:37,777 Speaker 1: going to happen. It just wasn't going to happen. There 636 00:35:38,177 --> 00:35:41,297 Speaker 1: was no plan beyond we're going to just keep trying, 637 00:35:41,697 --> 00:35:44,977 Speaker 1: and then we spent another ten years blood and treasure 638 00:35:45,377 --> 00:35:47,657 Speaker 1: keep trying. But there was no plan. There was no 639 00:35:47,697 --> 00:35:50,297 Speaker 1: path to victory. There was no plan beyond that. It 640 00:35:50,337 --> 00:35:52,617 Speaker 1: feels like, yeah, we're not in this war taking casualties, 641 00:35:52,617 --> 00:35:55,497 Speaker 1: which obviously is very important, and I think that's why 642 00:35:56,097 --> 00:35:57,897 Speaker 1: a lot of people don't even really think very much 643 00:35:57,897 --> 00:35:59,657 Speaker 1: about what's going on in Ukraine. But we are spending 644 00:35:59,657 --> 00:36:01,977 Speaker 1: one hundred billion dollars a year and it is volatile, 645 00:36:02,017 --> 00:36:03,297 Speaker 1: and they do have a lot of nukes over in 646 00:36:03,337 --> 00:36:06,057 Speaker 1: Russia and there are concerns. Here is the plan to 647 00:36:06,177 --> 00:36:09,377 Speaker 1: just kind of keep going and see what happens, because 648 00:36:09,377 --> 00:36:11,217 Speaker 1: it doesn't feel like from the US side, there is 649 00:36:11,257 --> 00:36:14,057 Speaker 1: a plan. No. I agree with you as you were 650 00:36:14,137 --> 00:36:15,977 Speaker 1: you were saying this was popping in my head. Is 651 00:36:16,057 --> 00:36:18,937 Speaker 1: I haven't seen a long term plan from this administration. 652 00:36:19,057 --> 00:36:22,577 Speaker 1: It's there. They're they're playing up by year right now, 653 00:36:22,857 --> 00:36:24,857 Speaker 1: Well Ukraine and say they need tanks, Well, let's figure 654 00:36:24,897 --> 00:36:26,497 Speaker 1: out a way to get them thanks. They're saying they 655 00:36:26,497 --> 00:36:28,617 Speaker 1: need air defense, and well, we'll get I haven't seen 656 00:36:28,657 --> 00:36:31,257 Speaker 1: someone sit down and say, here is a long term 657 00:36:31,257 --> 00:36:36,457 Speaker 1: plan to modernize or to maybe modernize isn't the right word, 658 00:36:36,537 --> 00:36:41,657 Speaker 1: but to standardize the Ukrainian military, to create a logistics system, 659 00:36:41,897 --> 00:36:44,577 Speaker 1: a system in order to get them what they need 660 00:36:44,617 --> 00:36:47,697 Speaker 1: and keep it flowing in order to fight. We haven't 661 00:36:47,737 --> 00:36:50,977 Speaker 1: seen that. Until we see that, I think we're going 662 00:36:51,017 --> 00:36:53,577 Speaker 1: to be in this. We're in a very reactive position. 663 00:36:53,937 --> 00:36:56,617 Speaker 1: And that's fine to put out fires for today and tomorrow, 664 00:36:56,657 --> 00:36:59,817 Speaker 1: but next week and next month and next year. Um, 665 00:37:00,057 --> 00:37:01,817 Speaker 1: that's that's no way to fight a war and the 666 00:37:01,897 --> 00:37:04,377 Speaker 1: way to support a country that's fighting and Bill. It 667 00:37:04,417 --> 00:37:08,617 Speaker 1: feels like Russia Ukraine is a war of attrition and 668 00:37:08,977 --> 00:37:14,017 Speaker 1: one side has a whole lot more resources and will 669 00:37:14,297 --> 00:37:17,897 Speaker 1: and commitment to this than the other in the sense 670 00:37:17,977 --> 00:37:20,897 Speaker 1: that we're actually the logistics end of this, right, I mean, 671 00:37:21,097 --> 00:37:23,977 Speaker 1: if the Western support for this collapses, if you're in 672 00:37:23,977 --> 00:37:26,017 Speaker 1: a war of attrition, it's about who's willing. You know, 673 00:37:26,057 --> 00:37:28,737 Speaker 1: you're taking losses on both sides. Who's willing to keep 674 00:37:28,737 --> 00:37:32,537 Speaker 1: refreshing those losses, both of men and material? Right, The 675 00:37:32,617 --> 00:37:36,017 Speaker 1: Russian side, it seems much deeper bench much more committed 676 00:37:36,097 --> 00:37:38,177 Speaker 1: to this. On our side, it's well, we're going to 677 00:37:38,297 --> 00:37:40,577 Speaker 1: let them do the fighting and we'll keep providing the material. 678 00:37:41,297 --> 00:37:44,417 Speaker 1: But it feels at some point like we're poorer and 679 00:37:44,497 --> 00:37:47,737 Speaker 1: a lot and that could just be I don't know 680 00:37:47,777 --> 00:37:49,857 Speaker 1: what else to say. It could all be for naught, right, 681 00:37:49,897 --> 00:37:52,097 Speaker 1: I mean, it feels like we're just trying to prop 682 00:37:52,177 --> 00:37:56,257 Speaker 1: up the losing side, and there's an inevitability to that. Well, 683 00:37:56,297 --> 00:37:58,217 Speaker 1: I would say that you know, what we are supplying 684 00:37:58,257 --> 00:38:01,337 Speaker 1: to the Ukrainians has leveled the battlefield. It's it's made 685 00:38:01,377 --> 00:38:03,777 Speaker 1: things you know we can't we do have to remember, 686 00:38:03,897 --> 00:38:07,337 Speaker 1: Ukrainians had significant success in the ball driving the Russians 687 00:38:07,337 --> 00:38:10,657 Speaker 1: out of two areas. That's true, so that that has 688 00:38:10,817 --> 00:38:12,937 Speaker 1: But what we've seen now is if things are I 689 00:38:12,937 --> 00:38:17,177 Speaker 1: would say it's basically pretty even. But everything else you said, 690 00:38:17,297 --> 00:38:19,937 Speaker 1: all things being said, it's a war of wills. Now, 691 00:38:20,697 --> 00:38:22,937 Speaker 1: we could keep providing, you know, since the Ukrainians don't 692 00:38:22,977 --> 00:38:25,897 Speaker 1: have enough men, have as many men and as much 693 00:38:25,937 --> 00:38:29,297 Speaker 1: stockpiles as the Russians have, the Russians can throw that. 694 00:38:29,577 --> 00:38:32,057 Speaker 1: What we can do is keep providing weapons, systems, that 695 00:38:32,177 --> 00:38:36,577 Speaker 1: levels the playing field. But again we're you know, I 696 00:38:36,617 --> 00:38:38,897 Speaker 1: think the weak link in this war isn't the Ukrainians 697 00:38:38,937 --> 00:38:41,737 Speaker 1: will to fight. If the weak link is the West 698 00:38:41,817 --> 00:38:44,177 Speaker 1: will and I just I keep going back to Iraq, 699 00:38:44,457 --> 00:38:46,737 Speaker 1: I keep going back to Afghanistan. How we left Iraq 700 00:38:46,777 --> 00:38:49,657 Speaker 1: in two thousand and eleven, when when we didn't need to, 701 00:38:49,857 --> 00:38:52,497 Speaker 1: and you saw what happened within three years, the rise 702 00:38:52,537 --> 00:38:56,377 Speaker 1: of the Islamic State or the leaving from leaving Afghanistan, 703 00:38:56,457 --> 00:38:59,417 Speaker 1: these were those weren't wars we lost on the battlefield 704 00:38:59,657 --> 00:39:02,137 Speaker 1: or because we didn't have enough men or munitions. There 705 00:39:02,177 --> 00:39:04,897 Speaker 1: are wars because we lost our will to fight. If 706 00:39:04,897 --> 00:39:08,937 Speaker 1: the West loses its will to support the Ukrainians, if 707 00:39:08,977 --> 00:39:14,577 Speaker 1: this war becomes too costly for Western countries, then the Ukrainians, 708 00:39:14,697 --> 00:39:17,497 Speaker 1: you know, they at some point they are they're bound 709 00:39:17,497 --> 00:39:20,417 Speaker 1: to be on the losing side. What happens at the 710 00:39:20,537 --> 00:39:24,137 Speaker 1: US decides that we are going to under the Biden administration, 711 00:39:25,417 --> 00:39:29,137 Speaker 1: have a no fly zone and also just start start 712 00:39:29,177 --> 00:39:33,137 Speaker 1: conducting air strikes on Russian positions only inside of Ukraine. 713 00:39:33,697 --> 00:39:36,417 Speaker 1: But we become, we become the Ukrainian Air Force, so 714 00:39:36,457 --> 00:39:38,377 Speaker 1: to speak. How do you think putin response to that 715 00:39:39,177 --> 00:39:42,257 Speaker 1: that that could lead to a situation where tactic little 716 00:39:42,297 --> 00:39:45,977 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons are exchange. Um, I do you know a 717 00:39:46,097 --> 00:39:50,337 Speaker 1: direct Western involvement in US troops or US pilots flying 718 00:39:50,337 --> 00:39:53,337 Speaker 1: over Ukraine, And I would argue you cannot. This is, 719 00:39:53,417 --> 00:39:55,177 Speaker 1: by the way, when duns was talked about at the 720 00:39:55,257 --> 00:39:58,657 Speaker 1: very beginning, I couldn't believe airports generals, guys who you know, 721 00:39:58,737 --> 00:40:01,297 Speaker 1: served in the country, served their nation for thirty years. 722 00:40:01,497 --> 00:40:04,457 Speaker 1: We're advocating this establishing a no fly zone. You can't 723 00:40:04,497 --> 00:40:06,697 Speaker 1: just do that in Ukraine. These aircraft are being launched 724 00:40:06,737 --> 00:40:09,737 Speaker 1: from Russian bases. There's air defense systems that are across 725 00:40:09,777 --> 00:40:13,577 Speaker 1: the order in Belarus and inside of Russia. Those would 726 00:40:13,577 --> 00:40:15,697 Speaker 1: have to be targeting in order for so you're hitting 727 00:40:15,737 --> 00:40:19,657 Speaker 1: Russian SAM sites, you're hitting Russian air bases. Yeah, yeah, 728 00:40:19,697 --> 00:40:22,177 Speaker 1: not Russian sites inside of Ukraine. You'd have to do 729 00:40:22,217 --> 00:40:27,297 Speaker 1: that in order to establish a legitimate note fly zone. 730 00:40:27,857 --> 00:40:30,137 Speaker 1: And once we do that again, all bets are off 731 00:40:30,897 --> 00:40:33,217 Speaker 1: that you want to have a you want to, you know, 732 00:40:33,377 --> 00:40:36,817 Speaker 1: raise the get that nuclear clock to tick a couple 733 00:40:36,897 --> 00:40:39,937 Speaker 1: of minutes closer to midnight. Um, go ahead and start 734 00:40:40,017 --> 00:40:43,337 Speaker 1: striking the Russians inside their own territory. What's the before 735 00:40:43,337 --> 00:40:45,777 Speaker 1: we close your bill, what's the optimistic case for how 736 00:40:45,777 --> 00:40:51,097 Speaker 1: this goes realistic? The optimistic you know, I could see 737 00:40:51,097 --> 00:40:54,657 Speaker 1: a scenario here where the Russians they're doing their call 738 00:40:54,737 --> 00:41:00,097 Speaker 1: up and but they're putting inexperienced troops in the fight, 739 00:41:00,257 --> 00:41:03,377 Speaker 1: and perhaps the US. I'm seeing some reports that the 740 00:41:03,457 --> 00:41:06,577 Speaker 1: US might provide some longer range rocket systems. Those have 741 00:41:06,617 --> 00:41:10,457 Speaker 1: been very effective on the battlefield. So an optimistic take 742 00:41:10,497 --> 00:41:13,137 Speaker 1: on this from the Ukrainian side is that they get 743 00:41:13,137 --> 00:41:15,657 Speaker 1: the weapons systems they need to hurt the Russians real 744 00:41:15,697 --> 00:41:18,337 Speaker 1: bad to force them out of certain areas. I don't 745 00:41:18,337 --> 00:41:19,577 Speaker 1: think they're going to be able to do it out 746 00:41:19,617 --> 00:41:22,297 Speaker 1: of all of the areas, but that they could force 747 00:41:22,377 --> 00:41:24,737 Speaker 1: they could make the Russians really think hard about pressing 748 00:41:24,777 --> 00:41:29,977 Speaker 1: their offensive. Bill Roggio Foundation Defensive Democracies, long Ward journal 749 00:41:30,337 --> 00:41:32,737 Speaker 1: Is Bill runs does great work in analysis on this. 750 00:41:33,057 --> 00:41:34,297 Speaker 1: Go check it out. And Bill, I believe you do 751 00:41:34,377 --> 00:41:37,977 Speaker 1: a podcast. That's right. We have a podcast called Generation 752 00:41:38,097 --> 00:41:42,137 Speaker 1: John Jihad. That's where we cover the issues of what 753 00:41:42,337 --> 00:41:44,657 Speaker 1: used to be called the Global war. Ontire, Bill, We've 754 00:41:44,657 --> 00:41:47,337 Speaker 1: got to have you back to talk, you know, baseball 755 00:41:47,417 --> 00:41:50,377 Speaker 1: and best grilling tips for the summer, but for this 756 00:41:50,417 --> 00:41:53,297 Speaker 1: episode we wanted a deep dive in Ukraine. We got one. 757 00:41:53,337 --> 00:41:55,817 Speaker 1: Thank you for your expertise in your time. Appreciate it. 758 00:41:55,937 --> 00:41:56,697 Speaker 1: Always a pleasure. Bu