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Speaker 1: All right, well, let's have a look at this upcoming

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Speaker 1: a job's report, at the non farm pay report coming

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Speaker 1: out of the US among the economists we've surveyed, and

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Speaker 1: suggesting that we could see about two hundred thousand jobs

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Speaker 1: being created in November. Let's find out more and that

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Speaker 1: we can now get over to the T. S. Lombard,

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Speaker 1: Chief US economist is Stephen Blitz. Steve, thanks for Joe

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Speaker 1: joining us. If we don't see, you know, a moderation

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Speaker 1: in the number of jobs which are growing here, how

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Speaker 1: much will that be taken as a sign by investors

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Speaker 1: and market participants that essentially we're going to be having

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Speaker 1: to deal with a higher inflation read for longer and

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Speaker 1: therefore higher interest rates also in the future. Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: that's a that's a great question. But I think that

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Speaker 1: the way um Powell set his speech yesterday, I think

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Speaker 1: he had a pretty good inkling that this number was

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Speaker 1: going to come in below a hundred thousand um and

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Speaker 1: uh so, I I think that the idea that it's

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Speaker 1: going to be a much higher number like what we've

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Speaker 1: seen three hundred thousands, which, by the way, at this

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Speaker 1: point in the cycle is very unusual and a hundred

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Speaker 1: fifty thousand is actually still a pretty strong number at

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Speaker 1: this point. But there their help bent on going a

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Speaker 1: fifty and you know, slowing equals easing as far as

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Speaker 1: the market is concerned. So we're a daily news show.

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Speaker 1: We always like to have change, and so we we

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Speaker 1: took the kind of pause in the markets today as

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Speaker 1: maybe a sign that you know, with this week p

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Speaker 1: m I number and uh a few other numbers of late,

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Speaker 1: that that maybe investors is starting to worry about recession.

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Speaker 1: But I think we should say that the forty nine

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Speaker 1: reading we got on the p m I, uh, it's

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Speaker 1: obviously in contraction. Uh, in in contraction mode. However, it's

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Speaker 1: not at the levels that you normally see when you

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Speaker 1: get recession, which is more like forty five or so.

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Speaker 1: So we can we can still have some heart at

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Speaker 1: least for the moment. Yeah. Look, there may any more

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Speaker 1: numbers out there that say that the economy is beginning

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Speaker 1: to re accelerate and say that the level of activities

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Speaker 1: continue continuing to decelerate. And a lot of that deceleration

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Speaker 1: that we've seen has nothing to do with the FED.

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Speaker 1: It has to the fact that the economy grew at

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Speaker 1: seven percent last year, it wasn't going to do that

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Speaker 1: again this year, and so there was a natural deceleration too.

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Speaker 1: So so when you look at those, when you understand

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Speaker 1: that fact, uh, the deceleration you're seeing is not your

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Speaker 1: typical cyclical deceleration towards recession. It's just simply the economy

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Speaker 1: just decelerating back to trend. And if you look at

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Speaker 1: these um personal income and spending numbers that we got

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Speaker 1: in October, and you look at three months moving averages, uh,

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Speaker 1: real spending on discretionary items has been is accelerating uh.

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Speaker 1: And real disposable income, we was shrinking a lot the

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Speaker 1: first part of the year is now growing positive. Tell

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Speaker 1: me something here. I mean, it's really interesting, Stephen. You

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Speaker 1: wrote to us in your research. You're saying, I forget

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Speaker 1: about J. Powe being pool Volka. He's more like Bill Martin,

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Speaker 1: and he was of course fed the president from the

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Speaker 1: early nineteen fifties for eighteen years and early nineteen years,

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Speaker 1: and more like William Miller, who was of course a

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Speaker 1: no sorry Arthur Burns, I should say here, who is

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Speaker 1: eight years from seventy So what's your thinking? Yeah, my

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Speaker 1: thinking is just simply that he's you know it's it's

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Speaker 1: it's easy to talk tough, but if you're really going

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Speaker 1: to be tough and you're really going to hold to

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Speaker 1: your guns, what do you what are you going to

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Speaker 1: hold to your guns when things get tough, when things

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Speaker 1: get hard? And you can think of that in any

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Speaker 1: walk of life for anybody. And what we're seeing with

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Speaker 1: this move so quickly to go to fifty, which isn't

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Speaker 1: easy of the ancial condition at the back end, and

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Speaker 1: we're seeing it begin to positively impact demand for housing. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know that that is exactly the mistake that um

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Speaker 1: Martin and and Burns made. They didn't carry through, They

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Speaker 1: didn't hold uh to a tight policy. So what the

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Speaker 1: market understands is that while Powell is talking of vocal talk,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't you know, he's not going to carry through. Now.

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Speaker 1: To be fair to him, he doesn't really have the

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Speaker 1: license to do that. He doesn't really have the political

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Speaker 1: support to do that. And he knows it, uh And

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Speaker 1: if I know what, he knows it. And so that's

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Speaker 1: uh what you're talking about. It is not not flinching

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Speaker 1: when the market goes down, but rather when you see

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Speaker 1: a lot of job losses, when you start saying exactly Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's exactly right. And and Vulcan didn't didn't flinch. Uh,

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Speaker 1: these guys did. And look, I understand that reason to flinch.

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Speaker 1: I get it. It's not you know, it's not pleasant

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Speaker 1: to have yourself in that position as a chair of

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Speaker 1: a FED, and you know it does put you in

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Speaker 1: a political hot spot. But you know, he he has

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Speaker 1: failed to show that he has that weight to be

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Speaker 1: able to push back against UH, to rally the markets

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Speaker 1: around his perspective. In any case, I think I think

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Speaker 1: you're suggesting we we we achieve a soft landing in

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Speaker 1: in ten seconds. In ten seconds, yeah, and that's a

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Speaker 1: problem because it means ok alright, let's say that for

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Speaker 1: the next discussion. Thanks very much to Stephen Blitz, chief

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Speaker 1: US economist at DS Lombard