WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - June 17th, 2022 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:05.400 This is Bloomberg Business Week Inside from the reporters and 0:00:05.559 --> 0:00:09.200 editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:09.240 --> 0:00:13.200 global business, finance and tech news as it happened. Bloomberg 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:16.759 Business Week with Carol Messier and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim 0:00:16.800 --> 0:00:21.279 Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Hi, everyone, Welcome to the weekend 0:00:21.440 --> 0:00:24.680 edition of Bloomberg Business Week. J Powell's Federal Reserve making 0:00:24.720 --> 0:00:27.680 its boldest move yet in the fight to curb inflation, 0:00:27.840 --> 0:00:30.600 calling for the first seventy five bases point interest rate increase. 0:00:30.880 --> 0:00:33.720 Since it was a big one, it was a big one. 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:36.800 Powell also signaling that another such increase could come in July. 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:39.239 And yet the federal funds rate is far from America's 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:42.720 biggest economic concern right now. Our cover story will explain 0:00:42.760 --> 0:00:45.520 why in just a moment. Also ahead on our broadcast, 0:00:45.560 --> 0:00:48.600 the outgoing see of the world's largest cruise vacation company 0:00:48.640 --> 0:00:52.120 talking about the prospects for a global recession. Also the 0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:54.840 CEO of SunPower telling us why the time to shift 0:00:54.960 --> 0:00:57.640 to solar it's now, And we'll check in on the 0:00:57.640 --> 0:01:00.760 retail environment. We'll do that with fashion entrepreneur Ray Burn. 0:01:01.080 --> 0:01:04.600 Some great voices on this weekend edition of the program 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:07.040 All About to Come. We begin with this week's cover story, 0:01:07.080 --> 0:01:09.840 though it does come from the Remarks section of Bloomberg 0:01:09.880 --> 0:01:13.119 Business Week, courtesy of assistant managing editor at the magazine, 0:01:13.280 --> 0:01:16.840 Jim Ellis. High inflation rattling Americans in part because it 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:19.440 makes them feel like things are spiraling out of control, 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:22.240 and there are plenty of signs that they are. Jim 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:25.280 and Business we getitor Joe Weber explain, it makes you 0:01:25.360 --> 0:01:29.559 go to some dark places really quick. Uh. And that 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:32.280 is because of the nature of the last year and 0:01:32.319 --> 0:01:35.720 the spike that we've seen in inflation. Um has been 0:01:35.760 --> 0:01:38.640 something that Americans who have not had a sense of 0:01:38.640 --> 0:01:43.000 of what infliction means is suddenly it is gripping the 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:47.320 country and it is leading to all kinds of anxieties, 0:01:47.560 --> 0:01:52.360 and that's reverberating across markets and everything else. And so, uh, 0:01:52.400 --> 0:01:55.640 you know, I turned to Jim Ellis early in the 0:01:55.680 --> 0:02:00.880 cycle and said, you know, Jim, you're uh elder statesman 0:02:00.920 --> 0:02:03.680 on the staff. You live through the seventies and eighties. 0:02:03.720 --> 0:02:05.720 At Business Week, You've written We've asked you to write 0:02:05.720 --> 0:02:08.160 about this stuff before. Can you kind of give us 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:09.960 a toe hold in it and then you know, between 0:02:10.000 --> 0:02:12.280 the Fed and the markets and everything. This week, it 0:02:12.480 --> 0:02:15.320 really to me what Jim ended up writing was really 0:02:15.360 --> 0:02:18.919 this sense of uh what it all means? Right? And 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:22.600 and uh so, Jim, I'm just curious, like I'll take 0:02:22.639 --> 0:02:25.200 Tim's question on children and kind of bring that back 0:02:25.200 --> 0:02:28.920 to you. Why why is inflation such a like almost 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:32.720 like a cancer for sanity? I guess that it's core 0:02:32.919 --> 0:02:36.519 it's because it's one of those things that people, hey 0:02:36.639 --> 0:02:39.320 don't truly understand, certainly don't understand it in the way 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:43.880 that economists do and um, but don't really have a 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:47.200 clear definition for what it is. But they sort of 0:02:47.760 --> 0:02:50.640 know when it's there, they sort and they're afraid of it. 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:52.720 And I think they're most afraid of it because it's 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:54.640 one of those things that can affect the quality of 0:02:54.680 --> 0:02:57.799 their life. Um. At the same time they have very 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:01.640 little control over and because of at people are terrified 0:03:01.760 --> 0:03:04.480 of it. And um, you know, obviously, um, you know, 0:03:05.280 --> 0:03:07.680 an economist might tell you, well, there can be some 0:03:07.680 --> 0:03:10.400 good things about inflation. Inflation starts moving, um, you know, 0:03:10.600 --> 0:03:13.720 if prices are if wages start moving up, then you know, 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:17.160 particularly for people who are either outside the labor force 0:03:17.240 --> 0:03:18.880 or people at the bottom of labor force. Maybe that's 0:03:18.919 --> 0:03:22.440 a good thing. But you won't find anyone, as Stiller 0:03:22.560 --> 0:03:24.639 in his research to Ride, you know, they didn't find 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:27.760 a single soul of the hundreds of people the interviewed 0:03:27.760 --> 0:03:30.440 who actually thought that inflation was a good thing. Jim, 0:03:30.520 --> 0:03:32.680 I wanted to go back to something that Joel said, 0:03:33.040 --> 0:03:34.800 you know, he said that you were at you were 0:03:34.800 --> 0:03:36.800 writing about the stuff in the nineteen seventies. You were 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:40.080 at Business Week, and you wrote about this in the fall, 0:03:40.360 --> 0:03:42.960 inflation in the fall, and you made some parallels to 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:46.120 what you experienced in the nineteen seventies. And I'm wondering 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:48.560 now a few months later, as inflation has continued to 0:03:48.560 --> 0:03:51.480 creep up and move higher, if you are starting to 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:55.400 fear more then you did back in the fall, that 0:03:55.440 --> 0:03:57.360 we are indeed entering some sort of thing that was 0:03:57.400 --> 0:04:00.560 similar to what you experienced in the seventies in a way. 0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:04.040 I mean, obviously there are some rather significant differences between 0:04:04.080 --> 0:04:07.360 now and the seventies. I mean, back then we did have, um, 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:11.000 you know, we had product shortages that were really important 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:14.040 because we had energy shortages both in a seventy three 0:04:14.040 --> 0:04:16.960 and and seventy nine where we had you know, gas lines. 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:19.000 I mean today you can get gas. If you can 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:21.360 afford five dollars six dollars gallon, you can get it. 0:04:21.720 --> 0:04:27.440 And also, um, we had significantly higher unemployment rates um 0:04:27.480 --> 0:04:29.680 back then than we have now. And now we have 0:04:29.800 --> 0:04:33.919 a labor shortage still from post pandemic. And so in 0:04:33.960 --> 0:04:36.000 a lot of ways, you know, we're in a better 0:04:36.080 --> 0:04:39.520 place than we were in the seventies, obviously, but one 0:04:39.760 --> 0:04:43.320 thing that really rings true here, uh, you know, in 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:46.839 a similarity to the seventies, is that there is a 0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:50.080 feeling that there are other things afoot. There are other 0:04:50.160 --> 0:04:55.320 things beyond just um, the continual rising prices that are 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:59.720 making people feel uneasy and out of control and uh, 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:02.160 with their existence. I mean, right now we have everything 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:06.000 from um, you know, the pandemic, the pandemic that doesn't 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:09.760 seem to want to end. Um, the idea that you know, 0:05:09.800 --> 0:05:13.160 we have government system that we don't know if we 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:15.840 are in control of, if we can trust what the 0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:18.640 president who says that the you know, the very basis 0:05:18.720 --> 0:05:22.200 of democracy, you know, the idea of you know, transfer power, 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:25.080 that the integrity of elections is all put to question. 0:05:25.480 --> 0:05:27.760 We have um, a lot of things that are making 0:05:27.800 --> 0:05:31.400 people feel uneasy and so UM to sort of get 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:34.640 a handle on this, I talked to a number of 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:38.600 sort of researchers, including um Um, you know, economists to 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:42.720 think about behavior and um. They're saying that when people 0:05:42.760 --> 0:05:46.680 are afraid, they tend to be afraid of everything, and 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:49.640 that being afraid of one thing, if you have multiple 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:53.200 sources of discomfort, it actually sort of makes you feel 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:55.880 even worse. And so right now it's very real to 0:05:55.920 --> 0:05:58.760 say we do have rising prices, so we do have 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:02.160 um inflation. But at the same time, people feel uncomfortable 0:06:02.160 --> 0:06:05.400 about government, they feel uncomfortable about safety of you know, 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.080 with guns and safety of schools, and all of a sudden, 0:06:08.120 --> 0:06:10.400 it means that you're pushed to the end where you 0:06:10.480 --> 0:06:12.800 sort of think everything's going to hell. I mean the 0:06:12.839 --> 0:06:15.839 FED is uh, you know, they're in the position of 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:19.040 being at least if if the seventies is any guide, 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:21.200 I mean that is um Um. You know, the one 0:06:21.600 --> 0:06:25.200 body that can bring it into this. I mean, you 0:06:25.240 --> 0:06:28.600 can beat inflation. You know. The problem is that to 0:06:28.680 --> 0:06:31.720 beat inflation, you often have to beat down the economy 0:06:31.760 --> 0:06:35.560 to the point that the people who will love you 0:06:35.640 --> 0:06:38.240 for it, well, eventually hate you for it. That was 0:06:38.279 --> 0:06:41.160 Bloomberg Business Week Assistant Managing editor Jim Ellis, along with 0:06:41.200 --> 0:06:43.719 the editor of the magazine, Joel Webber, coming up a 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:46.080 warning from the CEO of sun Power on what could 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:49.520 be a difficult summer for America's power grid and how 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:52.920 his company stands to benefit. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. 0:06:53.240 --> 0:07:07.159 This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol 0:07:07.200 --> 0:07:13.080 Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovik from Bloomberg Radio. Well, 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:15.000 we caught up with him back in March, and as 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:17.080 someone who has worked at Amazon, he wants to make 0:07:17.160 --> 0:07:19.400 using solar power for the home as easy as buying 0:07:19.400 --> 0:07:22.240 the book. Peter Pharisee as chairman, president and CEO of 0:07:22.320 --> 0:07:24.920 sun Power. It's a renewable energy company. It's got a 0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:27.680 market cap of just about three billion dollars and that 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:30.160 could go up if the cost of energy continues to 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:35.480 rise as it has been for much of Well, you're right, Uh, 0:07:35.520 --> 0:07:38.680 it's shocking to see the increases. You know, utility bills 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:43.239 are rising ten and it's really hitting consumers. Are energy 0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:47.480 energy went up three x? Yeah, it's it's you hear. Yeah, 0:07:47.560 --> 0:07:49.760 you hear a lot of these stories across the country. 0:07:49.760 --> 0:07:51.520 But what I can say on of the man's side 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:55.960 is it's very strong. We grew in the first quarter 0:07:56.720 --> 0:08:01.040 and despite rising sorry raising some of our prices due 0:08:01.040 --> 0:08:04.720 to supply chain costs, demand in the second quarter. You know, 0:08:04.760 --> 0:08:07.120 we haven't finished the second quarter yet, but I expected 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:10.000 to grow even faster than it did in Q one. 0:08:10.080 --> 0:08:12.960 So we've been very pleased so far. I think between 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:17.480 high energy prices and worries about blackouts, you know, people 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:21.440 are really getting the message solar and battery storage, you know, 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:23.200 is the way to go. You know, it's interesting that 0:08:23.240 --> 0:08:26.840 you say that my energy company reached me, reach out 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:29.000 to me recently and wanted to put me in connection 0:08:29.040 --> 0:08:30.880 with the solar company to see if I wanted to, 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:33.080 you know, kind of put some panels about my roof 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:35.520 and stuff. So and that just happened in the last week. 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:37.800 Was at the weekend? Or what's the what's their interest 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:39.800 in doing that? Like, why would they want you to 0:08:39.840 --> 0:08:42.839 do that? Is it to decrease the demand. I think 0:08:42.840 --> 0:08:45.080 they all are increasingly right and help us out here, Peter. 0:08:45.160 --> 0:08:48.079 I mean, all companies increasingly have to reduce their carbon footprints, 0:08:48.080 --> 0:08:50.760 so if they can somehow wright source out to more 0:08:50.840 --> 0:08:54.840 greener rays um, that's part of their business strategy. I 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:57.640 think many of the forward thinking you told these exactly, 0:08:57.679 --> 0:09:00.280 they want to reduce the amount of carbon footprint, getting 0:09:00.280 --> 0:09:03.520 a lot of political pressure. But also, you know, when 0:09:03.559 --> 0:09:06.360 the grid is at its most stressed point, they have 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:09.480 to light up these peaker plants. And these peaker plants 0:09:09.480 --> 0:09:13.680 are typically either coal or gas. They're very destructive on 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:17.000 the environment because they can't run them very efficiently. So 0:09:17.120 --> 0:09:19.680 their goal is really to get you know, the forward 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:22.040 thinking utilities are thinking how can we get as much 0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:25.080 residential solar out there? And I'm not sure if you 0:09:25.080 --> 0:09:28.160 guys have heard about these concepts of virtual power plants, 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:32.040 but it's kind of a concept that utilities will pay 0:09:32.080 --> 0:09:36.760 for consumers to take their solar battery energy and send 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:38.959 it back to the grid when the grid is most stressed, 0:09:39.040 --> 0:09:41.559 which is usually six to seven PM, and we all 0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:44.600 get home upon our you know, our TVs and air 0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:47.320 conditioning and everything else. So there's a lot of really 0:09:47.320 --> 0:09:49.760 good ideas out there that I think are win win. 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:52.480 I'm glad Carrol you live in a place where your 0:09:52.559 --> 0:09:57.000 utility is thinking that direction sunny New Jersey. Yeah, it's 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:00.360 and my roof isn't very big. But I got tell you, 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:01.880 if you know the price is right, I kind of 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:03.840 love to do it. One thing I do want to 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:06.360 ask you, and I love this about peaker plants speakers. 0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:08.120 I was just like googling. I had no idea that 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:10.880 that's what they're that's what they're referred to. Hey, Peter, 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:12.760 I gotta they'll take a step back. And we do 0:10:12.840 --> 0:10:16.040 this with all the leaders. So much market volatility. You know, 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:17.800 we're all like on pins and needles about what the 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:20.400 Fed's going to do tomorrow. And I do wonder, how 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:23.560 does I mean your stock has seen a lot of pressure? 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:26.439 I think down from the early April high, your market 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:29.040 capit shrunk, so has most of the equity universe. To 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:34.160 be fair, so volatility, tricky outlook, higher rate environment. How 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:36.000 does what kind of pressures is putting on you? Guys? 0:10:36.040 --> 0:10:37.920 How do you think about it? And do you have outlook? 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:40.160 Do you feel like we're going to hit a recession? Well, 0:10:40.280 --> 0:10:43.120 I'm not qualified the answer of the recession. Yes, you are. 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:45.720 You run a business. You run a business, you have 0:10:45.840 --> 0:10:49.800 to make decisions. Yeah, here's what I would say, right now, 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:53.520 we have the high class problem of trying to keep 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:57.520 up with customer demand. So I am chasing labor to 0:10:57.600 --> 0:11:01.880 get more and more installation capacity across the US. And 0:11:02.000 --> 0:11:04.040 as you guys know from all the people you talk to, 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:07.760 you're never sleeping very well with the supply chain every night, 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:11.040 so we're constantly seeking more production of more panels and 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:16.199 more components. So are really my my exclusive focus right 0:11:16.240 --> 0:11:19.360 now is not on the market. It's really on there's 0:11:19.440 --> 0:11:21.920 so much demand out there. You know, we're at a 0:11:22.000 --> 0:11:24.480 point now where we're going to have our third straight 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:28.360 quarter of record backlog. Obviously that's a wonderful signal about 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:31.600 how much people love our products and bottom but you know, 0:11:31.720 --> 0:11:34.520 listening to consumers want stuff done fast. Let's say there 0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:38.120 is a recession or there is this pullback and consumer demand. 0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:40.439 We're seeing it in terms of consumer sentiment. With the 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:43.440 way that consumers are feeling. We know they're concerned about inflation. 0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:46.520 We know high energy prices are eating into their while 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:49.520 it's and it's not just energy for you know, powering 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:53.080 the home, it's of course filling up the car as well. Peter, well, 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:55.960 at what point do they start to pull back on 0:11:56.200 --> 0:11:59.920 purchasing solar or financing solar, Like, what is the calculation 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:01.960 that you guys have done when it comes to this 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:06.000 type of data. Yeah, So most of our customers are 0:12:06.040 --> 0:12:10.360 telling us today that they're saving you know, a hundred 0:12:10.520 --> 0:12:14.080 couple hundred dollars a month when they install solar. I think, 0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:18.640 even after paying for solar. Yeah. So I think as 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:22.439 long as they continue to save money, I don't expect 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:26.120 that any kind of you know, recession issue will have 0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:28.000 an impact because at the end of the day, the 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:30.439 equation for consumers is really easy. Am I going to 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:33.120 save money on this if I take at least or alone? Okay, 0:12:33.120 --> 0:12:34.520 So let I ask the question right now, that's what 0:12:34.559 --> 0:12:36.280 people are seeing. Let me ask a question different way 0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:39.640 because our Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike mcgloon came 0:12:39.679 --> 0:12:42.200 on earlier with us and talked about this being peak 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:44.880 oil right now, and that's his prediction that we'll start 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:47.280 to see energy prices come down. What happens when we 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:49.200 if and when we start to see energy prices come 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:51.240 down and and my energy bill goes back to what 0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:53.760 it was two years ago rather than what it was 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.960 last month, then just demand dry up for solar. I 0:12:56.960 --> 0:12:59.920 don't think so. And here's why. So over the last decade, 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:05.680 UH solar prices have come down roughly seventy so it's 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:09.920 really a much more affordable product than it used to be. Hey, 0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:11.360 one thing we want to ask you, I'm going to 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:14.360 be you know, props to our Brian Eckhouse, who was like, hey, 0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:15.920 you gotta you're talking to Peter, You got to ask 0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:19.120 him about this present Biden, you know, looking to kind 0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:21.400 of diffuse. I guess it's safe to say a really 0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:25.240 very complicated trade dispute that has paralyzed the US solar industry. 0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:28.920 UM and you know, he's imposing this two year freeze 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:31.720 and new tiers for solar imports, invoking the Defense Production 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:33.880 Acts to support US made pals. I don't know that 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:36.599 it affects you guys specifically, But how does it or 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:38.160 how do you think about this? And do you think 0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:42.840 your company's share prices maybe suffered because of it? Well, 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:45.960 I'm excited about where they want to get to, especially 0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:48.720 in two years, where they really want to incent you know, 0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:52.839 on shore production of solar panels. I think that's fantastic, Carol. 0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:55.920 We announced at our analyst day a couple of months 0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:58.400 ago that we're in late stage discussions with a company 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:02.000 called First Solar. Uh. They're very famous because they're based 0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:03.760 here in the US and they make their panels here 0:14:03.760 --> 0:14:06.080 in the US. So I think there's just a great 0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:08.440 opportunity as we move forward to get more and more 0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:11.880 of this industry production on shore. Having said all that, 0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:14.360 you're right, the decision that he made to sort of 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:18.080 postpone any action there had no impact on our business. 0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:21.360 But what it basically did is it will continue to 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:24.720 keep prices low because it will allow companies to source 0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:28.400 panels from all parts of the world, including China, and 0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:32.000 it will make sure that there's continues to be great 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:35.920 value in buying solar, particularly again compared to traditional energy prices. 0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:38.560 Still ahead on Bloomberg Business Week and update from what 0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:42.120 our next guest calls the American Riviera, South Florida and 0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:45.560 specifically Miami Beach. One of the region's most prolific real 0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:48.680 estate agents tells us how much rising mortgage rates, inflation, 0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:52.440 and recession fears are squeezing her clients. This is Bloomberg 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:04.640 Broadcasting from the financial capital of the world, Bloomberg eleven 0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:09.360 Frio in New York to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:12.880 Bloomberg one oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine 0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:16.120 sixty to the country Sirius XM Chado one nine team, 0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:19.280 and around the globe, the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:24.240 Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Business Week. We want 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:26.160 to get to our next guest. She was named the 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:29.280 number one national agent at Douglas Element some seven fifty 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:32.040 million dollars in sales volume last year alone, deals in 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:36.400 and around Miami Beach bar Harmer, fall Harbor, right, ball Harbor. 0:15:36.640 --> 0:15:38.520 I don't know. I'm shaking my head. She's gonna help 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:40.200 me with this. Uh, and we're gonna get into a 0:15:40.240 --> 0:15:44.120 look at really real estate overall and in particular Florida. 0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:47.360 Dina Golden Tears, the executive director of sales at Douglas Allman. 0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:51.760 She joins, this vast bar harbor. Yeah, Dina, how are 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:54.440 you great? Thank you so much for having me. Yeah, 0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:55.800 it's good to have you with us. Will help us 0:15:55.880 --> 0:15:58.360 understand what the market's looking like, because we did just 0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:03.000 read that article by our own talking about how we 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:07.600 are seeing a decline in sales of homes in West 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:09.400 Palm Beach, Florida. So just give us an idea of 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:12.920 what you're seeing. Sure, So the market that I specialize 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:16.960 in really is, uh, the Miami Beach marketplace, which is 0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:21.360 pretty much our American riviera. Um, what we have seen 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:25.160 the last two years has been uncharacteristic because people couldn't travel, 0:16:25.680 --> 0:16:28.200 so rather than going to Europe or to ask her 0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:31.520 to the Hampton's, we had some of the wealthiest people 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:34.800 in the world quarantining and hanging out in Miami Beach. 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:38.800 So we had this NonStop flow of activity, whereas usually 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:41.000 things dudes slowed down for us in June, July, and 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:44.880 August and then everyone starts trickling back down for fall. 0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:47.800 So I am hoping that the slowdown that I'm seeing 0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:51.760 here is the reflection of that time tested pattern and 0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:55.640 hopefully not much more. Well. Yeah, so that's what we're 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:58.600 trying to figure out, Like what is the financial market 0:16:58.720 --> 0:17:00.800 so much? You know, we talk about a Dina all 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:03.200 the time. We just talked about how some of the 0:17:03.320 --> 0:17:06.080 elite private schools in Florida are getting crowded because so 0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:09.280 much of Wall Street has gone to Wall Street South 0:17:09.359 --> 0:17:12.400 down in Florida. UM, So trying to get an idea 0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:15.400 of is there a slowdown though because of the financial 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:18.280 market impact and people like I don't know you, you've 0:17:18.320 --> 0:17:21.360 you've seen a lot of cycles. What's your expertise telling you? 0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:25.160 I mean, I'm naturally inclined to be an optimist, so 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:27.400 I'm hoping that again, it's kind of out of sight, 0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:29.080 out of mind. With some of the deals I was 0:17:29.119 --> 0:17:32.040 working on. The buyers jetted off to Europe early this 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:34.560 year because they haven't been in two years. They went 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:38.080 out west early this year, and when you're not in Miami, 0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:41.320 it's really hard to get someone excited about a ten 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:45.359 million dollar house. UM. I do believe that when they return, 0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:48.360 let's say in October, that I can revive those deals. 0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:51.440 But I did see some things that I was working 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:55.080 on not come together. When people's stock portfolios were making 0:17:55.119 --> 0:17:58.520 a cry. I'm wondering what's going on when it comes 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:02.120 to you know, we were talking about decline in prices 0:18:02.119 --> 0:18:04.639 and decline in interest around the country. The housing market 0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:08.280 is certainly seeing moderating demand. I'm wondering how much this 0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:11.520 has to do with with rising mortgages and how you're 0:18:11.520 --> 0:18:14.120 thinking about you know, at what level do we start 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:17.919 to see mortgages really start to hit demand. I mean, 0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:19.600 I know it has already, but like, what's the number 0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:26.520 you think about? Well, where in seeing the mortgage interest rates, 0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:31.280 the high effect price points so far has really just 0:18:31.320 --> 0:18:33.760 been in one sector of my marketplace, which is three 0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:36.959 to five millions, which in Miami Beach is not you know, 0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:38.879 it's not the top tier of the marketplace. It's like 0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:41.560 a mid place. And in that price point, we've seen 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:46.639 inventory really dramatically increase and buyers have several listenings to 0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:50.600 choose from, whereas in ninety days they did not. So 0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:53.640 that's just one sector, and I hate to use one 0:18:53.680 --> 0:18:56.440 sector to generalize the whole marketplace because my listening is 0:18:56.440 --> 0:18:59.280 above ten million, my listening is above twenty million. I'm 0:18:59.320 --> 0:19:02.560 showing more than my listing the law priced wines. So 0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:04.880 you know, it's interesting. Tim and I had a conversation 0:19:04.960 --> 0:19:07.600 yesterday about rents in New York City particular, and I 0:19:07.640 --> 0:19:10.760 know Florida, in Southern Florida's is really your world, but 0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:13.439 it was about the kind of record rents and just 0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:16.399 crazy and we're like, what happened to you? Everybody leaving 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:19.920 New York City? It's like, what has happened in this 0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:22.560 real estate market. Well, I think if you if you're 0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:24.679 a believer that people are not going to be buying 0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:27.560 as much because they're concerned about interest rates, then you 0:19:27.560 --> 0:19:29.280 have to be a believer that they want to rent. 0:19:29.680 --> 0:19:31.399 So if they're gonna be renting, it's going to make 0:19:31.440 --> 0:19:36.320 the rental market even hotter. So people aren't buying. You're saying, right, No, 0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:39.480 I'm saying if you're if you're a believer that people 0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:41.680 that are, the market is going to slow down because 0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:44.040 people don't want to buy. The race are too high, 0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:45.520 and then what are they gonna do? They're going to 0:19:45.600 --> 0:19:47.879 go rent? What do you hear from your colleagues in 0:19:47.880 --> 0:19:49.359 New York just in the last twenty seconds that we 0:19:49.400 --> 0:19:51.760 have with you about slowing Are we going to see 0:19:51.760 --> 0:19:53.280 a slowdown in New York when it comes to sales? 0:19:54.600 --> 0:19:57.520 I'm not sure nobody's complaining. I mean, everyone's still, you know, 0:19:57.600 --> 0:20:00.280 really crushing it. But we haven't really seen in the 0:20:00.359 --> 0:20:02.879 after effects. You know, the deals that are closing in 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:06.119 my market, there's sales millions of dollars above apps. So 0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:10.200 we're still riding high because those deals happen sixty years 0:20:10.200 --> 0:20:12.800 ago and they're just closing now, dena five seconds at 0:20:12.840 --> 0:20:16.000 US buyers are outside the U s real quickly. It's 0:20:16.040 --> 0:20:18.720 always the US, but the outside US buyers are back 0:20:18.720 --> 0:20:20.680 now and hopefully one of them will buy my hundred 0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:23.280 million dollars less than the Golden Beach. That was Dina 0:20:23.320 --> 0:20:26.720 Golden Tear. She's executive director of sales over Douglas Element. 0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:29.480 You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. As we just heard, 0:20:29.480 --> 0:20:32.160 Miami is home to a hot housing market and it's 0:20:32.200 --> 0:20:36.000 also home to the world's largest cruise ship company. Of next, 0:20:36.000 --> 0:20:47.359 our exclusive interview with Carnival President and CEO Arnold'donald. You're 0:20:47.400 --> 0:20:51.280 listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg 0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:56.480 Quick Takes Tim Stinovik from Bloomberg Radio. Back in late April, 0:20:56.560 --> 0:20:59.400 Carnival named a new CEO to take over August one 0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:02.640 on A. Donald has been in that top spot since July, 0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:06.240 steering the company through a series of tough times, and that, 0:21:06.359 --> 0:21:09.359 of course, tim includes the pandemic. Donald is poised to 0:21:09.400 --> 0:21:12.720 become the company's vice chairman in August. Until then, he 0:21:12.720 --> 0:21:15.520 remains in charge of the world's largest cruise vacation company. 0:21:15.760 --> 0:21:18.600 He joined US for an exclusive interview this past week, 0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:21.880 and Carol, you began by asking him about the chances 0:21:21.920 --> 0:21:24.960 that we may be facing a global recession in the 0:21:25.000 --> 0:21:28.000 near term. We're prepared to try the weather that storm, 0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:31.320 and we have sufficient liquidity. We've done with twenty nine 0:21:31.440 --> 0:21:35.640 billion dollars of financial transactions UM since ROM the beginning 0:21:35.720 --> 0:21:39.200 of of COVID on this COVID period UH and so 0:21:39.400 --> 0:21:43.159 we are well positioned with liquidity UM. As we said 0:21:43.200 --> 0:21:45.240 in the last I can't of a full business update 0:21:45.240 --> 0:21:47.760 now because we're between corners. But from the last business 0:21:47.840 --> 0:21:50.800 update we gave at that time we had three quarters 0:21:50.840 --> 0:21:54.520 of the fleet sailing UM. Occupancy on those ships that 0:21:54.640 --> 0:21:58.480 were sailing was starting an increase. Obviously, the pandemic has 0:21:58.560 --> 0:22:02.119 taken an earned for the better more recently, and you 0:22:02.160 --> 0:22:07.080 can see protocols beginning to be relaxed and restrictions lifted 0:22:07.080 --> 0:22:10.119 in many areas, which bodes well for traveling general in 0:22:10.119 --> 0:22:13.080 our business UH. And so you know, we see an 0:22:13.080 --> 0:22:18.240 opportunity to generate cash, accelerate repayment of debt over time UM, 0:22:18.400 --> 0:22:23.080 ultimately obviously creating sharehold of value. So recessions if recession comes, 0:22:23.160 --> 0:22:26.640 if there's additional UM global tensions, which you know, there's 0:22:26.680 --> 0:22:29.679 always something where in the world every year, something going on, 0:22:30.160 --> 0:22:33.720 natural disasters, all of that. Um, you know, we're uh 0:22:33.880 --> 0:22:37.359 an industry and where a business and a company you know, 0:22:37.640 --> 0:22:41.600 engineer to weather through storms and and eventually will be 0:22:41.640 --> 0:22:44.359 getting back to the kind of gas cash generation that 0:22:44.400 --> 0:22:47.960 we're known for. You know, when I wish I knew 0:22:47.960 --> 0:22:49.879 when I wish I had that crost the ball, Carol, 0:22:49.960 --> 0:22:52.800 come on, yeah, but I don't know exactly when. But um, 0:22:52.880 --> 0:22:55.000 you know, as we say in the last business update, 0:22:55.320 --> 0:22:57.440 we're expecting to be you know, pretty much at full 0:22:57.520 --> 0:23:01.640 operations and three if out before and as we say 0:23:01.680 --> 0:23:03.240 in the last business update, we will be giving an 0:23:03.320 --> 0:23:06.280 update here on another week or so and and and 0:23:06.320 --> 0:23:08.600 we'll well, we'll see where we are. But but you know, 0:23:08.640 --> 0:23:11.840 it's um uh we see a lot of fundamentals that 0:23:11.920 --> 0:23:17.560 are positive despite these other macel dynamics which are obviously 0:23:17.640 --> 0:23:20.720 less positive and currently reflected in the market. Are your 0:23:20.760 --> 0:23:23.560 pricing your pricing power? Is that one of the positives? 0:23:23.600 --> 0:23:25.800 Because I am curious about how you are dealing with 0:23:25.800 --> 0:23:28.400 the increasing bunker fuel costs. You know, are you able 0:23:28.440 --> 0:23:30.840 to raise prices to kind of offset offset some of 0:23:30.840 --> 0:23:33.359 the higher costs and again I talked about higher food costs, 0:23:33.440 --> 0:23:37.280 higher labor. Are you able to to raise ticket prices? 0:23:38.640 --> 0:23:41.400 You know, again we're a global business, and so we 0:23:41.480 --> 0:23:44.680 can't just hit a switch and automatically raise prices because 0:23:44.720 --> 0:23:48.600 fuel prices have gone up. If they're sustained increase in 0:23:48.640 --> 0:23:53.000 fuel prices as opposed to spikes and troughts. If there's 0:23:53.080 --> 0:23:55.800 the sustained high level of fuel pricing, obviously that Waltz 0:23:55.880 --> 0:23:59.960 may get reflected and and the cost to to the traveler. 0:24:00.720 --> 0:24:03.600 But right now we have you know, pent up demand, 0:24:04.240 --> 0:24:08.960 somewhat limited capacity because we're not operating yet. Uh, and 0:24:09.080 --> 0:24:12.439 those are good tail winds. Obviously, we do have the 0:24:12.480 --> 0:24:16.200 head winds of higher fuel prices, and still some restrictions 0:24:16.200 --> 0:24:18.119 in the number of the world in terms of my 0:24:18.240 --> 0:24:22.000 areas in the world, in terms of constraints on being 0:24:22.040 --> 0:24:24.760 able to sell at full occupancy, in terms of accessing 0:24:24.960 --> 0:24:27.720 complete pools of guests who would like to sail with us. 0:24:27.760 --> 0:24:30.680 So you know, we're managing through all that. The overall 0:24:30.840 --> 0:24:34.360 longer term picture, though, Carol is really you know, positive 0:24:34.400 --> 0:24:36.639 for the industry and certainly positive for one thing. I 0:24:36.640 --> 0:24:38.520 like talking about you and I said to you, Arnold, 0:24:38.560 --> 0:24:40.040 you've dealt with a lot of crises, certainly at the 0:24:40.080 --> 0:24:42.320 company and specific and you've seen a lot of different 0:24:42.359 --> 0:24:45.320 economic uh cycles, certainly as you said, as you were 0:24:45.400 --> 0:24:47.520 chairman or on the board at Carnival and then of 0:24:47.560 --> 0:24:49.680 course is running the company. So how is it where 0:24:49.720 --> 0:24:52.240 it's such an interesting time right now? Right dealing with 0:24:52.320 --> 0:24:55.720 higher inflation, is tight labor market, a FED that is 0:24:55.920 --> 0:24:59.400 increasingly going to be it seems more and more aggressive. 0:24:59.560 --> 0:25:04.560 It fields really uncomfortable and complicated. UM. How do you 0:25:05.000 --> 0:25:07.080 kind of make sense of it? And what can you say? 0:25:07.119 --> 0:25:08.600 Do you see any kind of easing in some of 0:25:08.600 --> 0:25:11.159 the supply chain pressures? Is there anything out there? You 0:25:11.200 --> 0:25:13.320 talk about consumer demand, do you have a lot of 0:25:13.320 --> 0:25:16.800 confidence that that keeps coming, you know, for a while, 0:25:16.880 --> 0:25:19.400 or do you start to see some weakness there? Now? 0:25:19.440 --> 0:25:22.480 We UM again as I mentioned, when not recession proved 0:25:22.640 --> 0:25:27.119 historically we've been recession resilient and UM right now, we 0:25:27.240 --> 0:25:31.480 certainly see pent up demand. People want to travel, you know, 0:25:32.000 --> 0:25:35.920 they want to UM share experiences. UH, you know, they 0:25:35.960 --> 0:25:40.480 really are looking for experiences. So those are the tail winds. UM. 0:25:40.520 --> 0:25:44.080 There's constraints around that UM today, But those constraints are 0:25:44.119 --> 0:25:47.199 becoming fewer and less in terms of UM just the 0:25:47.400 --> 0:25:51.000 ability to feel that they can travel with certainty, not 0:25:51.119 --> 0:25:53.199 be concerned if they leave the country that they can 0:25:53.240 --> 0:25:55.720 get back in, not being concerned when they get to 0:25:55.760 --> 0:25:57.600 the airport where they'll be able to board the plane 0:25:57.680 --> 0:25:59.800 or not whether the plane is actually going to go on. 0:26:00.640 --> 0:26:04.920 And so as those concerns evaporate when you start having 0:26:04.920 --> 0:26:07.199 the fly go to different countries, not sure what the 0:26:07.240 --> 0:26:08.760 rule is gonna be when you land, what are gonna 0:26:08.760 --> 0:26:11.600 be when you come back, you know obviously that impedes demand. 0:26:12.040 --> 0:26:16.119 So as those uncertainties to evaporate, that pent up latent 0:26:16.160 --> 0:26:18.919 demand for people to have experienced, for want to travel 0:26:18.920 --> 0:26:22.959 and experience UM. That's ultimately what drives our business and 0:26:23.000 --> 0:26:24.639 it's what we're really great at it, and we do 0:26:24.640 --> 0:26:28.199 it at a value that's UM much better than equivalent 0:26:28.520 --> 0:26:32.480 based vacation. Arnold. I'm wondering specifically when it comes to 0:26:32.480 --> 0:26:34.720 here because Caroline I last month we're at the Milican 0:26:34.760 --> 0:26:37.040 Institute Global Conference, and one thing that came up over 0:26:37.080 --> 0:26:40.920 and over again was concerned about Europe's economy. But you 0:26:40.920 --> 0:26:43.480 yourself said, you can't paint the entire region with a 0:26:43.480 --> 0:26:45.879 single brush. Talk to us about regional differences that you're 0:26:45.880 --> 0:26:47.760 seeing when it comes to economies right now. And if 0:26:47.760 --> 0:26:50.040 you're seeing pockets of strength, there's his pockets of weakness 0:26:50.080 --> 0:26:53.640 in some areas well, just through the lembs we look 0:26:53.680 --> 0:26:57.480 at from cruising. You know obviously, um, you know we're 0:26:57.480 --> 0:26:59.800 not going to Russia right now. You know, Saint Petersburg 0:27:00.359 --> 0:27:04.760 Um was a destination on a lot of itineraries, especially 0:27:04.760 --> 0:27:07.680 in the summertime. There were very high you and itineraries. 0:27:07.760 --> 0:27:10.920 It's a very popular destination, etcetera. You think what everyone 0:27:10.960 --> 0:27:14.080 do you think you'll ever go back? Ever is a 0:27:14.119 --> 0:27:18.240 long is a long time. So ever, I'm sure let 0:27:18.240 --> 0:27:20.800 me ask the question a different way. What would need 0:27:20.840 --> 0:27:22.880 to have to what would need to happen in order 0:27:22.880 --> 0:27:26.840 to get St. Petersburg back on your itinerary? Well, first 0:27:26.880 --> 0:27:30.280 of all, it used to be peace and um, you 0:27:30.320 --> 0:27:33.440 know that's first and foremost. Uh, and then um, from 0:27:33.480 --> 0:27:35.439 there we would have to see what you know, the 0:27:35.480 --> 0:27:38.280 restrictions are, the sanctions are, etcetera, if there are any 0:27:38.320 --> 0:27:41.240 and so on. But we believe in going to places 0:27:41.240 --> 0:27:45.080 where people want to go and where the locals want 0:27:45.160 --> 0:27:48.080 people to come. So we do believe in doing that 0:27:48.320 --> 0:27:53.640 and UM within of course our ultimate responsibilities and our 0:27:53.760 --> 0:27:57.760 top priority compliance and environmental protection and the health, safety 0:27:57.800 --> 0:28:00.040 and well being of everyone. So we're gonna be in 0:28:00.119 --> 0:28:04.520 compliance with local as well as international and and and 0:28:04.640 --> 0:28:08.880 our our home state and flag state, um, you know, regulations. 0:28:09.320 --> 0:28:12.960 So it'll it'll take that that's okay to go from 0:28:12.960 --> 0:28:16.760 a compliance a regulatory standpoint, UM, And it would take 0:28:17.000 --> 0:28:19.520 that it's safe for people to go and it serves 0:28:19.560 --> 0:28:23.879 the best interests of health for everyone involved. You CEEO 0:28:23.960 --> 0:28:26.200 for nine years on the board for much longer than that. 0:28:26.800 --> 0:28:29.520 What didn't you get to do that you wish you 0:28:29.560 --> 0:28:34.080 had That's a great question. There are always things that 0:28:34.720 --> 0:28:38.200 you wish you had had a chance to do. UM. 0:28:38.480 --> 0:28:41.800 One of the biggest things is that we are celebrating 0:28:42.560 --> 0:28:47.160 fifty year anniversary, fifty year birthday of a Carnival brand 0:28:47.240 --> 0:28:50.720 and our corporation, and the brand has done a very 0:28:50.800 --> 0:28:53.960 nice job of celebrating fifth years for the brand. But 0:28:54.040 --> 0:28:57.320 I really wanted to do uh kind of a blowout 0:28:57.400 --> 0:29:01.320 thank you celebration for fifty years for our corporation, and 0:29:01.360 --> 0:29:03.160 I didn't get to do that because it would have 0:29:03.160 --> 0:29:05.640 been an inappropriate and environment where we were in UM 0:29:05.640 --> 0:29:08.600 with the pandemic. And also, you know, given the fact 0:29:08.640 --> 0:29:11.160 that you know, we had paused for such a long 0:29:11.240 --> 0:29:14.880 time and and weren't generating you know, positive earnings, and 0:29:15.000 --> 0:29:17.520 so but I would have loved to have done a 0:29:18.600 --> 0:29:24.840 grand you know, celebration honoring the great legacy that UM 0:29:25.080 --> 0:29:28.360 Mickey Arison, Aarrison family, UM, all the people that have 0:29:28.480 --> 0:29:31.600 worked in this corporation, all of the partners who have 0:29:31.680 --> 0:29:36.120 supported it, the travel aged and professionals, the poorst destinations, 0:29:36.280 --> 0:29:39.760 the tour operators, all the people that depend on cruise 0:29:39.760 --> 0:29:42.320 to our livelihood. But but it have been you know, 0:29:42.560 --> 0:29:45.400 good partners for us. I would have loved have done that, 0:29:45.720 --> 0:29:48.280 and and unfortunately we kind of had to take a 0:29:48.400 --> 0:29:50.520 quieter approach on that. So I have to leave it 0:29:50.560 --> 0:29:54.040 for Josh for the seventy five celebration hopefuls to be 0:29:54.120 --> 0:29:56.680 around participate. So we've only got a had a minute 0:29:56.760 --> 0:29:58.560 left here, and you said, you know you're gonna be 0:29:58.600 --> 0:30:00.760 around for a while and make sure everything goes and 0:30:00.840 --> 0:30:02.920 you know, I know you wouldn't give me a time, 0:30:02.960 --> 0:30:07.680 but is there something after this, I mean, um, in 0:30:07.760 --> 0:30:14.560 terms of the corporate world or or something politics anything politics. 0:30:15.000 --> 0:30:18.120 I don't think so in politics, that's for sure. You know. 0:30:18.200 --> 0:30:22.160 I have a number of of partners, um, that I've 0:30:22.200 --> 0:30:26.000 worked with in the past, private equity and others, and 0:30:26.000 --> 0:30:28.560 and so I'll look at, you know, as a sitting CEO, 0:30:28.680 --> 0:30:32.440 I can only be on one corporate board other than 0:30:32.480 --> 0:30:35.960 my own, um and um, not as a sitting CEO. 0:30:37.000 --> 0:30:41.160 Maybe some additional board opportunities. But I'm also going to, um, 0:30:41.520 --> 0:30:45.760 you know, think about maybe becoming a news anchor, you know, 0:30:45.800 --> 0:30:50.240 but now kidding guys, wait, wait, there's there's the red 0:30:50.280 --> 0:30:56.080 headline across openings here. Okay, you can come, sorry, Tim, 0:30:56.080 --> 0:30:57.600 but I don't look at come and co anchor with 0:30:57.640 --> 0:31:02.120 me anytime? All right, maybe just once. UM. We look 0:31:02.200 --> 0:31:05.440 forward to future conversations wherever you go. You've always been 0:31:05.440 --> 0:31:08.120 gracious with us and finding time for us. We wish 0:31:08.120 --> 0:31:10.200 you well and I know we'll be talking again. Arnold, 0:31:10.240 --> 0:31:12.680 thank you so much. Be well, Errol, thank you. Some 0:31:12.720 --> 0:31:14.880 of you guys do a great job. Thank you very much. 0:31:15.120 --> 0:31:18.600 That's Arnold Donald presidency of Carnival Corporation. He will become 0:31:18.720 --> 0:31:21.680 vice chairman in August. And that wraps up our first 0:31:21.720 --> 0:31:23.719 hour of the weekend edition. Of Bloomberg Business Week from 0:31:23.720 --> 0:31:26.920 Bloomberg Radio. I'm Carol Masser and I'm Tim Stanivack. Ahead 0:31:26.920 --> 0:31:29.200 in our next hour, more on the Federal reserves fight 0:31:29.280 --> 0:31:33.200 to tamp down inflation and the potential consequences of its strategy. 0:31:33.320 --> 0:31:35.920 Plus we'll catch up with fashion entrepreneur Tory Birch on 0:31:35.960 --> 0:31:39.400 the state of her business and her philanthropic pursuits. This 0:31:39.680 --> 0:31:50.920 is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week inside from the 0:31:50.960 --> 0:31:55.080 reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, 0:31:55.120 --> 0:31:58.720 plus global business, finance and tech news. As it happened, 0:31:58.840 --> 0:32:02.720 Sloomberg Business Week with Carol Messier and Bloomberg Quick Takes 0:32:02.800 --> 0:32:07.440 Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio, and we got plenty ahead 0:32:07.600 --> 0:32:09.960 this hour of the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week, 0:32:10.000 --> 0:32:14.080 including a conversation with renowned fashion designer, entrepreneur and philanthropist 0:32:14.280 --> 0:32:16.720 Tory Burch. Plus how A, B and Bev's commitment to 0:32:16.760 --> 0:32:19.840 E s G extends all the way to your local bar. 0:32:20.000 --> 0:32:22.360 First up this hour, though more on the Fed's efforts 0:32:22.360 --> 0:32:26.400 to tame soaring prices. Were strongly committed to returning inflation 0:32:26.480 --> 0:32:29.720 to our two percent objective inflation has again surprised to 0:32:29.800 --> 0:32:34.120 the upside. Some indicators of inflation expectations have risen, and 0:32:34.200 --> 0:32:37.440 projections for inflation this year have been revised up notably. 0:32:37.920 --> 0:32:40.480 In response to these developments, the Committee decided that a 0:32:40.560 --> 0:32:44.400 larger increase in the target range was warranted at today's meeting. Clearly, 0:32:44.440 --> 0:32:47.960 today's seventy five basis point increase is an unusually large one, 0:32:48.080 --> 0:32:50.080 and I do not expect moves of this size to 0:32:50.120 --> 0:32:53.959 be common. Those words from Federal Reserve Chairman J Powell's 0:32:53.960 --> 0:32:57.200 press conference Wednesday after the Central Bank's biggest single rate 0:32:57.280 --> 0:33:00.240 hike in nearly three decades. It was a big, big meeting. 0:33:00.280 --> 0:33:02.280 We were all counting down to it. Now. In a 0:33:02.440 --> 0:33:05.320 story you'll find online at Bloomberg dot com, Slash Business 0:33:05.360 --> 0:33:09.080 Week also on the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg News, Senior Markets 0:33:09.160 --> 0:33:12.080 editor Ed Harrison explains why the Feds pushed to keep 0:33:12.080 --> 0:33:15.560 the US economy on stable ground could actually help usher 0:33:15.600 --> 0:33:19.600 in your recession. They haven't really tried historically to protect 0:33:19.600 --> 0:33:21.720 the main streiod, at least for the last forty years. 0:33:21.880 --> 0:33:24.600 What happened is that in the seventies, when we had 0:33:24.600 --> 0:33:29.720 our last inflation shot, there was a dreaded wage price 0:33:29.800 --> 0:33:33.360 spiral that people believe Paul Wilker was able to stamp out. 0:33:33.360 --> 0:33:38.040 And since then, they've sort of, you know, preemptively hyped 0:33:38.960 --> 0:33:41.480 rates at the end of every cycle, and so people 0:33:41.480 --> 0:33:44.440 who are just getting onto the employment ladder at the 0:33:44.520 --> 0:33:48.840 end of cycles were stopped out, you know, they were 0:33:48.920 --> 0:33:51.760 left behind. And then we had the Great Financial Crisis, 0:33:51.800 --> 0:33:54.240 which was a trauma for everyone, and we had to 0:33:54.280 --> 0:33:57.120 bailout for Wall Street. So there was a sense in 0:33:57.160 --> 0:34:01.120 which the FED actually wasn't working for or main Street. 0:34:01.200 --> 0:34:04.520 And they've changed that approach because to become more inclusive 0:34:04.840 --> 0:34:07.760 their staff and has become more inclusive. They've tried to 0:34:08.080 --> 0:34:11.440 lengthen business cycles on purpose in order to make it 0:34:11.480 --> 0:34:14.839 more inclusive. But unfortunately they ran into the buzz Stoll 0:34:14.960 --> 0:34:20.120 called inflation. Right, So, I mean, I love how your 0:34:20.120 --> 0:34:22.080 story reads, to be quite honest with you, you know 0:34:22.400 --> 0:34:25.359 that in terms of what happened during the financial crisis, right, 0:34:25.400 --> 0:34:27.719 I mean, Wall Street was protected for the most part, 0:34:27.760 --> 0:34:31.680 minus Lehman and a few other firms, um, but main 0:34:31.719 --> 0:34:34.600 Street felt it felt it so severely. Uh, it does 0:34:34.719 --> 0:34:37.080 feel you know a little bit different this time around. 0:34:37.360 --> 0:34:39.440 How do we need to kind of think about maybe 0:34:39.560 --> 0:34:41.400 the FED approach right now. And we just got a 0:34:41.400 --> 0:34:43.799 lot from J. Powell and company, you know, just a 0:34:43.840 --> 0:34:47.960 few hours ago. Yeah. I think his overriding message is 0:34:48.480 --> 0:34:53.000 that if we don't get inflation under control, it doesn't 0:34:53.440 --> 0:34:57.920 benefit anyone, especially those who are most disapin because not 0:34:58.080 --> 0:35:01.279 only is it hurting people in st up not being 0:35:01.280 --> 0:35:04.440 able to afford things, but it also means that the 0:35:05.280 --> 0:35:08.800 cycle can't be longer. You can't have a long business 0:35:08.800 --> 0:35:12.880 cycle that is more inclusive, that gets the participation rate up. 0:35:13.320 --> 0:35:15.920 So if he's to achieve what he needs to do, 0:35:16.360 --> 0:35:20.240 he needs to act now so that in the future 0:35:20.640 --> 0:35:24.319 this won't be a problem. So to what extent does 0:35:24.360 --> 0:35:26.640 the FET actually have the tools to do that? These 0:35:26.640 --> 0:35:29.680 are famously blunt instruments, And as we heard from Doug 0:35:29.719 --> 0:35:33.839 Cioca over at Covar Capital Partners, given the supply constraints 0:35:33.880 --> 0:35:36.920 that are leading to high inflation, we're helping contribute to 0:35:37.080 --> 0:35:39.759 high inflation when it comes to the supply chain, when 0:35:39.760 --> 0:35:42.880 it comes to high energy prices. What power does the 0:35:42.920 --> 0:35:47.080 the FED have to do this? Well, it was interesting 0:35:47.080 --> 0:35:49.520 to listen to J p talk about it. He was 0:35:49.640 --> 0:35:53.319 quite honest and sin that they don't have h all 0:35:53.360 --> 0:35:55.640 of the tools. You know. Obviously they can't work against 0:35:55.680 --> 0:35:58.879 the flash shop. They can't make more computer chips round 0:35:59.120 --> 0:36:03.000 clogged court, they can't pump more oil. Uh. The only 0:36:03.040 --> 0:36:05.960 thing they can do in this particular instance is get 0:36:06.560 --> 0:36:12.879 uh supply and demand and balanced by cramping demand. That's 0:36:12.960 --> 0:36:17.240 essentially what they're doing. And he's soft pedaling that policy 0:36:17.280 --> 0:36:21.000 by saying, look, we have the Jolts data which says 0:36:21.000 --> 0:36:24.800 that there are so many um jobs out there that 0:36:24.920 --> 0:36:27.560 we can just reduce the number of jobs that the 0:36:27.640 --> 0:36:31.800 supply of jobs then as opposed to the supply of labor, 0:36:32.360 --> 0:36:34.399 then we can get a nice balance there. I thought 0:36:34.400 --> 0:36:36.760 that was a very good turn of raise on his part. 0:36:38.120 --> 0:36:40.959 Is that something we can do though, because I mean, okay, 0:36:41.080 --> 0:36:44.839 from the perspective of of you know, interest rates and 0:36:45.000 --> 0:36:47.080 how I'm going to fill up my my tank right 0:36:47.600 --> 0:36:50.719 to what extent do higher interest rates lead me to 0:36:51.280 --> 0:36:54.800 not drive somewhere or lead me to not use energy 0:36:55.080 --> 0:36:59.880 in my home? Well, I think it's gonna be very difficult, because, 0:37:00.040 --> 0:37:02.080 you know, it sounds good at the aggregate level, when 0:37:02.080 --> 0:37:05.200 you break it down to where people actually need jobs 0:37:05.200 --> 0:37:08.719 and where companies need employees. Uh, you get you get 0:37:08.719 --> 0:37:10.880 a breakdown there. And I think that we're already seeing 0:37:10.920 --> 0:37:15.239 on two fronts a breakdown in terms of employment and 0:37:15.320 --> 0:37:18.360 in terms of business investments. If you looked at the 0:37:18.480 --> 0:37:22.520 business investment numbers that came out, uh, the d DP 0:37:22.960 --> 0:37:27.320 now figure went down to zero point zero percent, showing 0:37:27.440 --> 0:37:30.640 that they're looking for a contraction in business investment in 0:37:30.880 --> 0:37:35.040 Q two. And then jobless claims are are up forty 0:37:35.160 --> 0:37:41.399 five thousands on average over the last two months. Yeah, 0:37:41.440 --> 0:37:43.120 I think it's really significant. You know, I was thinking 0:37:43.160 --> 0:37:45.680 about that in terms of here's our supply chains, our 0:37:45.719 --> 0:37:50.880 problems right ed and you know, many ways the energy 0:37:50.920 --> 0:37:53.840 situation right refining, like we need to increase capacity, we 0:37:53.840 --> 0:37:56.279 need to make these investments, and yet companies aren't doing it. 0:37:56.640 --> 0:38:00.359 And this is where the FED can't necessarily help ease 0:38:00.360 --> 0:38:03.799 though supply chain constraints if companies aren't willing to kind 0:38:03.800 --> 0:38:07.520 of either amp up production. And so to me once 0:38:07.560 --> 0:38:09.560 again into reminder, inflation is going to stick around for 0:38:09.560 --> 0:38:11.080 a lot longer. And that's a lot of pain on 0:38:11.120 --> 0:38:14.480 Main Street. Just got about twenty five seconds. Yeah, and 0:38:14.520 --> 0:38:17.040 I think that that is a big problem. And you know, 0:38:17.560 --> 0:38:20.640 when you think about the oil patch, their scarred side, 0:38:21.080 --> 0:38:23.879 the shale boss, and I think that the investors want 0:38:23.880 --> 0:38:26.880 the money, so really the bed between a Rathna and Hardcoot. 0:38:27.000 --> 0:38:30.080 That was Bloomberg News Senior Markets editor Ed Harrison. You're 0:38:30.080 --> 0:38:32.640 listening to Bloomberg Business Week coming up. She built the 0:38:32.640 --> 0:38:35.360 fashion brand that bears her name. Tory Birch on the 0:38:35.400 --> 0:38:38.160 outlook for her empire and what she's doing to help 0:38:38.239 --> 0:38:50.960 other women achieve their own success. This is Bloomberg. This 0:38:51.400 --> 0:38:55.040 is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick 0:38:55.080 --> 0:39:00.360 Takes Tim Stinovik from Bloomberg Radio. The Tory Birch Undation 0:39:00.440 --> 0:39:02.759 has provided more than one point two million dollars in 0:39:02.800 --> 0:39:05.480 grants to help women grow their businesses, and the Tory 0:39:05.480 --> 0:39:08.680 Birch Capital Program has distributed more than seventy five million 0:39:08.719 --> 0:39:13.120 dollars in loans to nearly forty women entrepreneurs. The Foundation 0:39:13.160 --> 0:39:16.399 hosted its third Embrace Ambition Summit this past week, and 0:39:16.480 --> 0:39:18.560 just ahead of the event, we had the chance to 0:39:18.600 --> 0:39:21.400 catch up with Tory Birch. She's, of course, founder, designer, 0:39:21.440 --> 0:39:24.040 and executive chairman of the company and brand that bears 0:39:24.080 --> 0:39:27.080 her name, also the president of the Tory Birch Foundation 0:39:27.440 --> 0:39:30.040 Lori Fabiano, and before we talked about the great things 0:39:30.040 --> 0:39:33.239 her philanthropic organization is doing, Tory brought us up to 0:39:33.239 --> 0:39:36.240 speed on the health of her enterprise. We talked retail. 0:39:36.360 --> 0:39:38.480 We had a record year last year, and then we 0:39:38.560 --> 0:39:42.160 see the first quarters it's a lot tougher and and 0:39:42.239 --> 0:39:45.120 but but that said, it's still very optimistic and we 0:39:45.120 --> 0:39:48.879 we don't see um. We obviously are very concerned about 0:39:48.880 --> 0:39:51.839 inflation and all that's coming to supply chain issues are 0:39:51.880 --> 0:39:55.360 extremely challenging, but we were taking one day at a 0:39:55.440 --> 0:39:59.160 time and and our business is still extremely strong. Tory, 0:39:59.200 --> 0:40:01.319 how have you managed supply the supply chain? I mean 0:40:01.320 --> 0:40:03.200 what changes have you had to make as a result 0:40:03.239 --> 0:40:07.840 of difficulty getting components as a difficulty in terms of shipping. 0:40:08.960 --> 0:40:13.640 Very luckily many years ago, about eight years ago, I 0:40:13.680 --> 0:40:16.840 really wanted to diversify with where we produce things, so 0:40:16.880 --> 0:40:20.080 we weren't dependent on one area, and I think that 0:40:20.120 --> 0:40:23.480 has helped us a great deal. Um, So we really 0:40:23.760 --> 0:40:26.960 really manufacture all over the world, and when one country 0:40:27.040 --> 0:40:31.000 is down, we're moving supply chain to the next. Well, 0:40:31.000 --> 0:40:33.200 and when you think about things like labor, are you 0:40:33.239 --> 0:40:35.360 getting all the workers you want, whether it's in stores 0:40:35.400 --> 0:40:37.840 and so on, UM or if you are, are you 0:40:37.880 --> 0:40:40.399 finding you have to pay up for it? Well, we are. 0:40:40.560 --> 0:40:43.520 We are not having trouble hiring people, are having the 0:40:43.600 --> 0:40:47.120 people we need right now. And you know, I think 0:40:47.160 --> 0:40:50.960 time will tell what the toll that inflation has in 0:40:51.040 --> 0:40:53.680 store for us. What do you mean by that you're 0:40:53.680 --> 0:40:57.439 not seeing go ahead? Well, we just don't. We We 0:40:57.480 --> 0:41:00.120 are not. We are not seeing the full impact that 0:41:00.200 --> 0:41:03.080 I think that's going to becoming our way. So we 0:41:03.160 --> 0:41:06.680 are preparing the best we can with the unknown, which 0:41:06.719 --> 0:41:09.399 we I think, do know that will get will get 0:41:09.480 --> 0:41:12.000 much worse. Well, how do you prepare, as you know, 0:41:12.040 --> 0:41:14.200 executive chairman of the company, how do you prepare for 0:41:14.200 --> 0:41:17.200 for what the unknown is? I mean the concept of 0:41:17.600 --> 0:41:20.920 less is more, less of everything and everything was more integrity, 0:41:21.080 --> 0:41:25.040 making sure that our teams are in great shape, really 0:41:25.080 --> 0:41:29.200 that they're they're doing doing well, but but focusing on 0:41:29.200 --> 0:41:31.800 on product and innovation. And I think that that's something 0:41:32.400 --> 0:41:37.240 that people are still are still shopping, They're still wanting 0:41:37.239 --> 0:41:40.680 to dream, and that's something UM that we hope will 0:41:40.719 --> 0:41:43.560 not change. I love what you said about less is more, 0:41:43.600 --> 0:41:45.399 and I do wonder I have a nineteen year old 0:41:45.400 --> 0:41:49.240 and she's very strategic and what she buys, she checks 0:41:49.239 --> 0:41:52.120 where things are made. She wants to understand the company 0:41:52.239 --> 0:41:55.359 and doesn't shop a lot, but what she buys is 0:41:55.920 --> 0:41:59.200 as a mother who pays for it last. Right. So, like, 0:41:59.239 --> 0:42:03.239 I think the consumer has changed, and what's exciting for 0:42:03.360 --> 0:42:07.360 us is a purpose driven company is resonating and super 0:42:07.400 --> 0:42:10.160 important for for the world. And and people that are 0:42:10.200 --> 0:42:12.879 buying products they want they want more to it than 0:42:12.920 --> 0:42:14.840 just a product. All right, can I ask you? And 0:42:14.880 --> 0:42:17.600 then we're going to move back to the summit. So, Tory, 0:42:17.640 --> 0:42:19.960 we've talked with you about going public. You've told us 0:42:20.400 --> 0:42:24.360 that you know that's never your fun isn't really completely 0:42:24.360 --> 0:42:26.680 off the table. I mean, I get the benefits of 0:42:26.680 --> 0:42:28.480 being a private company. I see it all the time, 0:42:28.719 --> 0:42:32.239 public versus private. But I'm just curious. Well, listen, I 0:42:32.239 --> 0:42:35.000 can never say never to anything. I don't think you can. 0:42:35.120 --> 0:42:38.120 But I think being private is a luxury, is something 0:42:38.160 --> 0:42:42.240 that I truly love, and I think that we um 0:42:42.440 --> 0:42:45.799 have no plans whatsoever to think in a different way. 0:42:46.000 --> 0:42:48.720 And I've got to say I've enjoyed the conversation story 0:42:48.719 --> 0:42:51.160 that we've had over the years when it comes to 0:42:51.200 --> 0:42:53.680 the work that you guys are doing with your Foundation 0:42:53.719 --> 0:42:56.839 for Women Entrepreneurs. I have to say your summit, I'm 0:42:56.880 --> 0:43:01.000 curious about the tone the conversations come off. The pandemic 0:43:01.480 --> 0:43:04.520 coming off of again questionable times when it comes to 0:43:04.560 --> 0:43:07.960 the economic outlook that tends to impact minorities and women 0:43:08.040 --> 0:43:10.359 much more severely. So tell us a little bit about 0:43:10.440 --> 0:43:14.600 what we can anticipate Tory next week. Yeah, I mean, listen, 0:43:14.760 --> 0:43:18.160 it's it's very good timing based on some of the 0:43:18.360 --> 0:43:21.000 things that we all have experienced the last two years. 0:43:21.040 --> 0:43:25.439 It's been a heartbreaking pandemic obviously, but women have been 0:43:25.560 --> 0:43:29.480 hit extra hard and two million women have left the 0:43:29.600 --> 0:43:32.480 job force alone, so you can imagine the impact that 0:43:32.560 --> 0:43:36.279 takes on women in general, but the economy. Laurie, what 0:43:36.360 --> 0:43:40.640 specifically are you doing at the foundation in order to 0:43:40.640 --> 0:43:44.560 help these women who have been affected? Um, well, we 0:43:44.960 --> 0:43:51.600 created one program particular, it's Grants for Women of Color Entrepreneurs, 0:43:51.640 --> 0:43:55.520 and we did that in partnership with the Fearless Fund 0:43:55.640 --> 0:43:59.360 and the Crew and also with some help from Goldman Sacks. 0:43:59.640 --> 0:44:04.759 And that is literally to provide grants very quickly to 0:44:05.080 --> 0:44:08.239 women of color business owners that are in danger of 0:44:08.840 --> 0:44:11.800 losing their businesses, and we want to see them sustain 0:44:11.880 --> 0:44:15.719 and thrive. But during the pandemic, we also really pivoted 0:44:15.880 --> 0:44:20.480 and became one of the primary resources for women trying 0:44:20.520 --> 0:44:23.880 to get p PP loans and for women in general 0:44:24.040 --> 0:44:27.560 trying to just get the information they needed to stay 0:44:27.600 --> 0:44:31.560 in business. We created a web series and for a 0:44:31.600 --> 0:44:35.000 while it was running literally every single week with with 0:44:35.320 --> 0:44:39.000 news and information that women entrepreneurs really need it. And 0:44:39.480 --> 0:44:42.799 tens of thousands of women have been on these on 0:44:42.880 --> 0:44:45.000 our web series. You know, Tory, one of the things 0:44:45.040 --> 0:44:47.120 I remembered from and it's years ago, and I think 0:44:47.120 --> 0:44:50.800 it's when you were starting your foundation and you're talking 0:44:50.800 --> 0:44:53.799 about you know, these grants for women and entrepreneurs, and 0:44:53.880 --> 0:44:57.080 you know you had this money to to allocate, and 0:44:57.160 --> 0:44:59.799 yet people weren't coming up, you know, coming up. Our 0:45:00.000 --> 0:45:03.160 are are applying for it. What has changed over the 0:45:03.239 --> 0:45:06.720 years when it comes to women annili there are sources 0:45:06.719 --> 0:45:10.600 out there and accessing um you know, financial help and assistance, 0:45:10.600 --> 0:45:12.880 whether it's starting a business. And I think about your summit, 0:45:12.960 --> 0:45:15.960 right it's now it's third year. The conversations around double 0:45:16.000 --> 0:45:19.360 standards and stereotypes. How is all of this evolving and 0:45:19.360 --> 0:45:23.399 and figures crossed getting better. Yeah. I mean, first of all, 0:45:23.520 --> 0:45:27.960 the summit we do every two years um and so 0:45:28.040 --> 0:45:30.439 it's going to be I think we the first one 0:45:30.520 --> 0:45:33.319 was in two thousand eighteen, so this will be our 0:45:33.360 --> 0:45:38.560 third summit um. But but I think, um, this the 0:45:38.640 --> 0:45:42.080 system and program wasn't right. Initially. We had to figure 0:45:42.120 --> 0:45:44.640 it out and we needed to sort of crack it 0:45:44.760 --> 0:45:48.680 and realized that women we needed to find the women 0:45:48.719 --> 0:45:50.960 at the right time in the cycle of their business 0:45:51.040 --> 0:45:54.440 and when they actually needed a loan. So once we 0:45:54.560 --> 0:45:57.600 did that, we saw the enormous need and just the 0:45:57.800 --> 0:46:00.759 program that Lorie just mentioned, I can't even tell you. 0:46:00.800 --> 0:46:05.160 I think there are thousands of applicants seventh salvand that 0:46:05.360 --> 0:46:08.880 the need is enormous. That's Tory Burch, the founder, designer, 0:46:08.920 --> 0:46:12.320 and executive chairman of Tory Burch, along with Lori Fabiano, 0:46:12.480 --> 0:46:15.040 president of the Tory Burch Foundation. Still to come on 0:46:15.080 --> 0:46:17.839 Bloomberg Business Week. How to state your case and make 0:46:17.880 --> 0:46:21.680 yourself heard in any situation. Tim and I we're gonna debate, Well, 0:46:21.719 --> 0:46:24.160 no we're not, No, we're not, but we are going 0:46:24.200 --> 0:46:26.400 to get some tips from a world class debate champion. 0:46:26.440 --> 0:46:32.719 On the other side. This is Bloomberg Broadcasting from the 0:46:32.760 --> 0:46:36.640 financial capital of the World, Bloomberg eleven Rio in New 0:46:36.719 --> 0:46:41.200 York to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one 0:46:41.200 --> 0:46:44.320 oh six one does San Francisco, Bloomberg nine sixty to 0:46:44.440 --> 0:46:47.640 the country Sirius XM Chado one nineteen and around the 0:46:47.640 --> 0:46:51.680 globe of Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. 0:46:51.719 --> 0:46:56.440 This is Bloomberg Business Week. This next guest man, does 0:46:56.480 --> 0:46:58.719 the world need his advice? He's a two time world 0:46:58.840 --> 0:47:01.480 champion debate or and a former coach of the Australian 0:47:01.560 --> 0:47:05.359 national debating team and the Harvard College Debating Union. Bo 0:47:05.480 --> 0:47:07.960 So is a journalist and author from Australia by way 0:47:07.960 --> 0:47:11.120 of South Korea. He overcame a significant language barrier to 0:47:11.160 --> 0:47:13.520 become one of the best in his field, and now 0:47:13.560 --> 0:47:15.440 he reveals some of the tricks of the trade in 0:47:15.560 --> 0:47:18.640 his new book Good Arguments. How Debate teaches us to 0:47:18.680 --> 0:47:21.400 listen and be heard. We're living at a time of 0:47:21.440 --> 0:47:26.680 really extraordinary polarization, and it's easy in times like that 0:47:26.800 --> 0:47:30.359 to see disagreement as the source of our troubles. And 0:47:30.400 --> 0:47:34.120 what I'm trying to suggest with this book is disagreements 0:47:34.160 --> 0:47:37.399 can be a force for good, not only because they're 0:47:37.520 --> 0:47:40.960 useful in terms of finding out truths and ensuring people 0:47:40.960 --> 0:47:43.440 are heard and and and we can be honest and 0:47:43.520 --> 0:47:47.520 frank and forthright with each other, but more importantly because 0:47:48.160 --> 0:47:53.120 good arguments, uh what good democracies are, They're good work 0:47:53.400 --> 0:47:56.839 They're what good workplaces are, what good families are, that we, 0:47:57.200 --> 0:48:01.640 despite our differences, resolved to live together and instead of 0:48:01.680 --> 0:48:04.759 ignoring our differences, to put them in conversation with one 0:48:04.800 --> 0:48:07.080 another with the hope that we might be able to 0:48:07.120 --> 0:48:11.319 get somewhere deeper, somewhere better, somewhere richer than we might 0:48:11.360 --> 0:48:14.400 be able to on our own. So my hope with 0:48:14.440 --> 0:48:18.480 this book is to restore people's confidence in what disagreements 0:48:18.520 --> 0:48:21.120 can do, and hopefully to give them a few skills 0:48:21.160 --> 0:48:23.200 that are going to allow them to handle them a 0:48:23.239 --> 0:48:25.359 little bit better too. I think that one thing that 0:48:25.440 --> 0:48:31.080 keeps people back from expressing disagreement in the workplace is 0:48:31.120 --> 0:48:34.680 perhaps the way that we interpret how other people are 0:48:34.680 --> 0:48:37.480 going to take that disagreement, the idea of people taking 0:48:38.000 --> 0:48:41.680 conflict personally. So, but what's a good way to you know, 0:48:41.840 --> 0:48:46.000 how should people express themselves in a way where they 0:48:46.080 --> 0:48:48.440 get to that better place by disagreeing with one another. 0:48:48.880 --> 0:48:52.200 I think that's a really important question. And debate is 0:48:52.239 --> 0:48:54.520 such a big part of the workplace now, isn't it, 0:48:54.600 --> 0:48:57.640 Because the nature of modern wide collar work is just 0:48:57.800 --> 0:49:00.839 we sit around in meetings and disagree all day um. 0:49:00.960 --> 0:49:03.680 And I think the book gives a few different pieces 0:49:03.719 --> 0:49:06.520 of advice for someone in that situation. I think the 0:49:06.600 --> 0:49:09.040 first is you want to be really clear what the 0:49:09.080 --> 0:49:13.200 disagreement is about. As soon as there's that kind of 0:49:13.280 --> 0:49:17.080 imprecision about what the conversation is about, it tends to 0:49:17.120 --> 0:49:20.560 become unruly, and it tends to bring in personality, it 0:49:20.640 --> 0:49:23.040 tends to bring in all the things that has happened 0:49:23.040 --> 0:49:25.719 in the past. So the first thing I would say 0:49:25.800 --> 0:49:29.440 is every disagreement starts with an act of agreement, and 0:49:29.480 --> 0:49:32.640 that's often about what the discussion is about. The next 0:49:32.640 --> 0:49:34.839 thing that I would add is you want to have 0:49:34.920 --> 0:49:38.600 the kind of rules that we started our conversation with, 0:49:38.800 --> 0:49:42.800 so in competitive debate, you know that everybody gets equal 0:49:42.840 --> 0:49:46.400 time in which to speak. They're not interrupted while they're speaking, 0:49:46.560 --> 0:49:49.880 and they're given turns, so that when I speak and 0:49:49.920 --> 0:49:52.239 I give you a chance to speak, there's no need 0:49:52.320 --> 0:49:54.320 for me to interrupt because I know I'm going to 0:49:54.440 --> 0:49:56.640 get a turned back. It's a big part of this too, 0:49:56.800 --> 0:49:58.799 is that there doesn't have to be a winner or 0:49:58.840 --> 0:50:02.440 loser absolute um. And you know, one of the things 0:50:02.480 --> 0:50:05.480 that you learn as a competitive debate or is wins 0:50:05.480 --> 0:50:08.480 and losses are temporary. You know, just the way it 0:50:08.520 --> 0:50:11.759 is in the workplace. You might take a w in 0:50:11.880 --> 0:50:15.799 this particular conversation or a loss in this particular conversation, 0:50:16.160 --> 0:50:19.439 but your coworkers aren't going anywhere right, and so they're 0:50:19.440 --> 0:50:21.880 going to be back the next day or the next week, 0:50:22.200 --> 0:50:25.120 the next month with a different issue. Where you're on 0:50:25.239 --> 0:50:28.680 going to be on different sides, sometimes allied, sometimes on 0:50:28.719 --> 0:50:32.320 opposing sides. So I think the real lesson, in addition 0:50:32.360 --> 0:50:36.800 to taking seriously the needs sometimes to prevail in arguments 0:50:36.840 --> 0:50:39.480 and to stick up for yourself and to carry your message, 0:50:39.920 --> 0:50:43.080 is to recognize what we all need is a set 0:50:43.120 --> 0:50:45.960 of rules, a set of practices that allows us to 0:50:46.080 --> 0:50:49.239 keep the conversation going in the long term and for 0:50:49.280 --> 0:50:52.280 the betterment of our organizations and for the betterment of ourselves. 0:50:52.360 --> 0:50:56.000 I have to you know, I think about presidential debate 0:50:56.160 --> 0:50:58.680 or political debates like do you do. You watch them 0:50:58.680 --> 0:51:00.360 and you say, well, this isn't a debate, this is 0:51:00.400 --> 0:51:03.000 just a show. No, seriously, right, Like people don't have 0:51:03.040 --> 0:51:05.280 a chance to kind of say things. There's constantly somebody 0:51:05.360 --> 0:51:09.200 jumping in, and that's not a debate, or is it? 0:51:09.280 --> 0:51:11.399 I think I think that's exactly right. I don't think 0:51:11.440 --> 0:51:15.280 they are debates. And something isn't a debate just because 0:51:15.320 --> 0:51:18.800 it's called a debate or because two people are standing 0:51:18.800 --> 0:51:21.920 at an awkward distance from each other at different podiums, right, 0:51:22.120 --> 0:51:24.719 And I think often what happens in those debates is 0:51:25.040 --> 0:51:28.760 one or more of the participants turns what would otherwise 0:51:28.800 --> 0:51:31.440 be a debate into a kind of a brawl. And 0:51:31.600 --> 0:51:35.359 it becomes really important in those moments to pause, as 0:51:35.360 --> 0:51:37.480 you said at the at the at the top of 0:51:37.480 --> 0:51:41.600 the program, to say, to identify what is happening, to 0:51:41.800 --> 0:51:44.720 name the kinds of tactics that are being used, whether 0:51:44.800 --> 0:51:47.160 it be name calling and something like that, and to 0:51:47.239 --> 0:51:49.200 say is it a debate that we're having or is 0:51:49.239 --> 0:51:54.400 it something else? Because without that kind of a check um, 0:51:54.480 --> 0:51:57.880 what begins as a debate can devolve into something worse. 0:51:57.920 --> 0:52:00.440 And we see that not only on the presidential stage, 0:52:00.680 --> 0:52:03.520 but We see that around the kitchen table and with 0:52:03.560 --> 0:52:06.440 our families and our loved ones, and we see it 0:52:05.960 --> 0:52:09.239 at workplaces all the time. That's journalist and author both 0:52:09.320 --> 0:52:12.240 so on his new book Good Arguments, How Debate teaches 0:52:12.320 --> 0:52:14.799 us to listen and be heard. It's out now. You're 0:52:14.800 --> 0:52:16.719 listening to Bloomberg Business Week, and if you missed any 0:52:16.760 --> 0:52:18.400 of it, or you want to hear the whole conversation, 0:52:18.520 --> 0:52:21.320 check out our podcast online coming up. A b in 0:52:21.360 --> 0:52:23.600 Bev's all in on E s G. And it's not 0:52:23.640 --> 0:52:27.120 just about tackling climate change. What the world's largest brewery 0:52:27.200 --> 0:52:29.000 is doing to keep you safe at the bar and 0:52:29.239 --> 0:52:39.480 on the road. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg 0:52:39.520 --> 0:52:43.120 Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim 0:52:43.200 --> 0:52:47.600 Stinovik from Bloomberg Radio and as her busch in Bev 0:52:47.719 --> 0:52:49.640 thinks a lot about E s G as it relies 0:52:49.640 --> 0:52:51.839 on natural resources in a big way. I mean, no water, 0:52:51.960 --> 0:52:54.320 no beer. It's as simple as that, and that easily 0:52:54.400 --> 0:52:57.160 makes the business case for the company, and it has 0:52:57.200 --> 0:53:00.640 set out a series of sustainability goals for twenty five 0:53:00.680 --> 0:53:03.200 as a result. It's not just sustainability though, part of 0:53:03.239 --> 0:53:05.600 its s G mission is smart drinking. For more on 0:53:05.600 --> 0:53:07.920 what that entails and how the world's largest brewer is 0:53:07.960 --> 0:53:09.960 thinking about our climate, supply chains and the health of 0:53:09.960 --> 0:53:12.759 its consumers, we turned to John Blood. He's the chief 0:53:12.840 --> 0:53:16.120 Legal and Corporate Affairs officer and company secretary at A 0:53:16.200 --> 0:53:18.160 B and BEV. And one of the great things about 0:53:18.160 --> 0:53:21.160 the beer category is it's an affordable luxury. You can 0:53:21.200 --> 0:53:24.160 go out this weekend, you can have a stellar artois right, 0:53:24.239 --> 0:53:26.520 you can go in, you can enjoy yourself. The price 0:53:26.560 --> 0:53:28.920 point is right there. We have a portfolio approach at 0:53:28.960 --> 0:53:31.800 all different price points, so it's really a great luxury 0:53:31.840 --> 0:53:33.600 that you can have in these types of times. I mean, 0:53:33.640 --> 0:53:35.720 one of the things that I'm so floored with talking 0:53:35.760 --> 0:53:39.800 to you and your senior um executive space is that 0:53:40.000 --> 0:53:43.080 you guys have to understand your supply chaine so well, right, 0:53:43.120 --> 0:53:45.400 because it just if things don't go well, uh, it 0:53:45.480 --> 0:53:47.840 just all breaks down. And you also understand the impact 0:53:47.880 --> 0:53:50.399 of climate change on that supply chain in big way, 0:53:50.400 --> 0:53:53.279 which is why your sustainability initiatives are really impressive and 0:53:53.320 --> 0:53:55.680 you've had them in place for a long time. Having 0:53:55.680 --> 0:53:59.040 said that, how would you describe your supply chains today. Yeah, 0:53:59.080 --> 0:54:01.160 for us. If you think about beer, right, for us, 0:54:01.200 --> 0:54:04.279 take the United States for an example of what we 0:54:04.360 --> 0:54:07.800 sell in the US is brewed here. We're talking US farmers. 0:54:08.160 --> 0:54:11.600 We're talking folks in the US making it, distributing it, 0:54:11.640 --> 0:54:14.719 brewing it, getting it there. So that's but that doesn't 0:54:14.760 --> 0:54:17.040 mean we're not immune to the world, right, And that 0:54:17.080 --> 0:54:19.680 doesn't mean that we also look out and say what 0:54:19.800 --> 0:54:21.719 can we do to plan, what can we do to 0:54:21.760 --> 0:54:23.920 get ahead of things? What tools do we have in 0:54:24.000 --> 0:54:26.799 our toolkit? And because we're a global business, we have 0:54:26.840 --> 0:54:29.160 a business in China, we have a business in South America, 0:54:29.239 --> 0:54:31.760 we have a business in Europe. Talking to those folks 0:54:31.760 --> 0:54:34.080 about what's on the ground is important for us as well. 0:54:34.320 --> 0:54:35.920 I want to hear about what you're hearing from the 0:54:35.920 --> 0:54:37.960 farmers on the ground here in the US, because it's 0:54:37.960 --> 0:54:41.239 been a tough run for farmers with fertilizer prices going up, 0:54:41.440 --> 0:54:44.120 with severe weather in many parts of the country shortening 0:54:44.280 --> 0:54:46.880 this season. What are you hearing from barley farmers, from 0:54:46.880 --> 0:54:49.640 hops farmers? Yeah, so for barley and hops there, this 0:54:49.680 --> 0:54:51.520 is something that we try to plan out as best 0:54:51.560 --> 0:54:53.560 as we can, and particularly when you take a look 0:54:53.560 --> 0:54:55.840 at something like organic. Right. One of the beers that 0:54:55.880 --> 0:54:59.320 we have is an organic brew right called organic Pure Gold, 0:54:59.320 --> 0:55:02.440 which is a Michael ultraproduct. And to get someone right 0:55:02.480 --> 0:55:04.560 to the farmer to come in and say, hey, we 0:55:04.640 --> 0:55:07.719 want you to plan organic barley, right, that's gonna take 0:55:07.760 --> 0:55:09.680 some time. Right, we have to work with them. We 0:55:09.680 --> 0:55:12.000 have to give them those long term contracts. And we 0:55:12.080 --> 0:55:14.719 really see ourselves in the industry and you need to 0:55:14.760 --> 0:55:17.400 look at yourself as part of the whole chain. So 0:55:17.440 --> 0:55:19.319 we feel for those farmers. We try to give them 0:55:19.360 --> 0:55:22.320 those contracts to give them the stability going forward to say, 0:55:22.440 --> 0:55:24.680 particularly the organic side, we're gonna work with you in 0:55:24.680 --> 0:55:27.080 the long term so you can transition to that. John, 0:55:27.120 --> 0:55:28.800 I feel like this is so into some of the 0:55:28.880 --> 0:55:31.600 conversations we're just talking with Peter Farcy uh, the CEO 0:55:31.640 --> 0:55:34.160 of sun Power, and just talking about you know, certainly 0:55:34.200 --> 0:55:36.319 when it comes to trade tensions between the U S 0:55:36.320 --> 0:55:39.400 and China that impacts certainly the solar industry. UM, but 0:55:39.440 --> 0:55:42.200 I also think about that, you know, what is the 0:55:42.239 --> 0:55:44.640 responsibility when it comes to our global supply chains. You 0:55:44.640 --> 0:55:46.680 guys have just taken the initiatives a lot on your 0:55:46.719 --> 0:55:49.080 own right to make sure you ensure the stability and 0:55:49.160 --> 0:55:52.520 purity of those supply chains. What is the government role, 0:55:52.600 --> 0:55:54.400 especially when it comes to things like and I know 0:55:54.480 --> 0:55:57.840 this isn't your wheelhouse, but whether it's semiconductors or water 0:55:57.920 --> 0:56:00.719 or what have you, because some of becomes like national 0:56:00.800 --> 0:56:04.560 security issues, And I do wonder is your responsibility. You know, 0:56:04.840 --> 0:56:07.160 I'm sure you're dealing with folks in Washington from time 0:56:07.160 --> 0:56:10.440 to tu, So I do wonder the conversations that are 0:56:10.480 --> 0:56:12.400 coming out or that need to be have, that we 0:56:12.440 --> 0:56:13.879 need to be having when it comes to our national 0:56:13.920 --> 0:56:16.400 supply chains, especially coming off of the pandemic. Yeah, well, 0:56:16.400 --> 0:56:19.000 I love this question because it really hits home that 0:56:19.040 --> 0:56:21.439 if you think, as a business executive, you're gonna solve 0:56:21.480 --> 0:56:23.560 any of this by yourself, and you're gonna sit in 0:56:23.600 --> 0:56:25.319 your room and you're gonna get a power point open, 0:56:25.320 --> 0:56:28.480 you're gonna plan something out, you're mistaken. You need to 0:56:28.520 --> 0:56:30.960 work with partnerships. You need to work with your stakeholders. 0:56:30.960 --> 0:56:33.839 And the first thing to understand is who are your stakeholders. 0:56:33.960 --> 0:56:38.000 So your stakeholders are national governments, your stakeholders are farmers, 0:56:38.200 --> 0:56:41.160 Your stakeholders are these consumers. But your stakeholders are the 0:56:41.160 --> 0:56:43.840 communities as well where you're looking for these supplies to 0:56:43.880 --> 0:56:46.319 come out of. So if in fact you're working with 0:56:46.440 --> 0:56:49.560 folks who farm in another country, what are you doing 0:56:49.600 --> 0:56:52.560 with them to make sure that they're planning? How can 0:56:52.600 --> 0:56:56.040 you give them something as simple as maybe financial literacy. 0:56:56.200 --> 0:56:57.880 We have a program where we work with a lot 0:56:57.960 --> 0:57:00.520 of our farmers to say we want to help you 0:57:00.680 --> 0:57:03.640 become better farmers. But more importantly, we're not going to 0:57:03.719 --> 0:57:05.600 teach you that you're going to learn from other farmers 0:57:05.680 --> 0:57:08.160 in other countries. You're gonna learn from other farmers down 0:57:08.239 --> 0:57:10.319 the street, and we'll put that together so you can 0:57:10.400 --> 0:57:13.840 understand when the weather changes about what's the best technique 0:57:14.080 --> 0:57:16.920 you can share that because at the end of the day, 0:57:17.200 --> 0:57:19.560 that community is something that can learn from each other, 0:57:19.560 --> 0:57:21.480 and we can be a vehicle to that one thing 0:57:21.480 --> 0:57:23.320 we wanted to get to because you are a company 0:57:23.320 --> 0:57:26.240 that has really laid out sustainability goals. We talk a 0:57:26.280 --> 0:57:28.920 lot about e s G getting a reckoning and people 0:57:28.920 --> 0:57:31.960 wanting transparency as part of e s G. Though you 0:57:32.000 --> 0:57:36.080 guys think about safe drinking, talk to us are smart drinking? 0:57:36.120 --> 0:57:37.600 Talk to us about that and how it fits in 0:57:37.640 --> 0:57:39.680 because right we're living in a world where there are 0:57:39.800 --> 0:57:43.280 multiple stakeholders and that includes our consumer. Yeah, thanks Karen. 0:57:43.320 --> 0:57:45.400 When I think about smart drinking, right, when I think 0:57:45.400 --> 0:57:48.040 about what we do with our product, right, I think 0:57:48.040 --> 0:57:51.320 about my family. Right, My kids ride their bikes on 0:57:51.360 --> 0:57:53.560 the street. Right. I want to make sure that we 0:57:53.640 --> 0:57:56.800 have the best programs for anti drunk driving. Right. I 0:57:56.840 --> 0:57:59.280 want to make sure that we have the best programs 0:57:59.520 --> 0:58:02.920 for people to remind them about smart drinking. Really, what 0:58:02.960 --> 0:58:07.040 we call social norms marketing. This is something where you're 0:58:07.080 --> 0:58:09.840 not just in the old days of like, hey, we're 0:58:09.840 --> 0:58:12.919 going to raise awareness, right, that's ten twenty years ago. 0:58:13.240 --> 0:58:17.800 This is evidence based programs that give people actionable advice. 0:58:18.080 --> 0:58:20.560 Now it's simple action, a little advice. It'll be things 0:58:20.600 --> 0:58:25.440 like hydrate between drinks, have a non alcohol beer with 0:58:25.480 --> 0:58:29.200 the beer, eat before and while you drink. Simple things 0:58:29.240 --> 0:58:32.720 like don't drink if you're pregnant, plan to have a 0:58:32.840 --> 0:58:36.680 ride home. Those are the social norms advertising that's away 0:58:36.720 --> 0:58:40.000 from drink responsibly. Drink responsibly. We do want people to 0:58:40.040 --> 0:58:43.040 drink responsibly, but we need more than that today. You 0:58:43.120 --> 0:58:46.080 need to be more action oriented. What prompted that change, 0:58:46.120 --> 0:58:49.080 because drink responsibly is something that I remember going back, 0:58:49.160 --> 0:58:51.520 you know, decades at this point when it comes to marketing. 0:58:51.560 --> 0:58:55.040 What changed this to actionable advice? What was that pivotal point? 0:58:55.280 --> 0:58:57.360 Two things to him. One is the science right when 0:58:57.360 --> 0:59:01.160 we work with academics, they tell us this actionable advice, 0:59:01.240 --> 0:59:03.720 this social norm advice can make a difference. And the 0:59:03.760 --> 0:59:06.800 second is about five years ago, right, we were looking 0:59:06.840 --> 0:59:09.120 at our programs and we said, we have all these 0:59:09.120 --> 0:59:11.480 smart drinking programs around the world, and we think they 0:59:11.480 --> 0:59:14.000 were We've been doing them for years. And then we 0:59:14.040 --> 0:59:17.800 asked ourselves, does anyone have any data if they work 0:59:17.920 --> 0:59:19.960 or not? Have we has anyone tested this? And how 0:59:19.960 --> 0:59:22.520 do you test it? And that's where the process started. 0:59:22.760 --> 0:59:24.560 We wanted to test it. We wanted to make it 0:59:24.680 --> 0:59:27.440 evidence based, and by the way, we share the evidence 0:59:27.480 --> 0:59:29.120 with all those who want to look. We have a 0:59:29.160 --> 0:59:31.640 foundation that does it. We work with the academics whoever 0:59:31.640 --> 0:59:33.400 wants to look and look at it. We test the 0:59:33.440 --> 0:59:36.160 programs and go with the ones that have the biggest 0:59:36.200 --> 0:59:38.600 and best impact. What's the biggest piece of advice, you 0:59:38.600 --> 0:59:41.440 know for our kids? The guy grew up in a 0:59:41.480 --> 0:59:45.520 family where older parents, I don't know, like different era, 0:59:45.680 --> 0:59:48.040 like there was alcohol in the house, and I had 0:59:48.080 --> 0:59:50.480 my first drink with my parents, you know, at a 0:59:50.520 --> 0:59:53.680 platively young age, for better for worse. But I and 0:59:53.720 --> 0:59:56.520 I and I am responsible about drinking today. But like, 0:59:56.840 --> 0:59:59.800 what is how do we approach this with kids? Yeah, 0:59:59.880 --> 1:00:01.600 and this is a fascinating question because if you take 1:00:01.600 --> 1:00:02.920 a look at the US and you take a look 1:00:02.960 --> 1:00:06.120 at the rest of the world, right, there are cultural norms. Right, 1:00:06.200 --> 1:00:09.640 there are laws as well. Of course, we tell kids 1:00:10.200 --> 1:00:14.000 do not drink. Right when the law says, whatever it is, 1:00:14.400 --> 1:00:17.680 that's the law, you need to enforce it. However, right 1:00:17.920 --> 1:00:20.520 when we deal with alcohol, right, when we deal with 1:00:20.560 --> 1:00:23.840 what we call these social norms, it's so important right 1:00:24.120 --> 1:00:26.840 that when we deal with it, we remember that alcohol 1:00:26.880 --> 1:00:30.080 is often part of the special and beer in particular 1:00:30.440 --> 1:00:33.240 is part of those meaningful moments in life when someone says, 1:00:33.600 --> 1:00:36.760 let's grab a beer. Right there in part talking about 1:00:36.920 --> 1:00:40.240 the beer, but they're talking about the social connection oftentime. 1:00:40.240 --> 1:00:42.320 When someone says let's grab a beer, they want to 1:00:42.320 --> 1:00:44.520 have a meaningful interaction with you, right, They want to 1:00:44.560 --> 1:00:47.240 have a real conversation, they want to be together, and 1:00:47.320 --> 1:00:50.480 sort of balancing that in the right way is what 1:00:50.520 --> 1:00:52.840 you really need. To talk to everyone about right. You 1:00:52.880 --> 1:00:55.720 need to talk to them about this is how you 1:00:55.840 --> 1:00:59.040 respect the product. This is how you enjoy the product 1:00:59.320 --> 1:01:02.200 by treating it the right way. And that's what smart 1:01:02.240 --> 1:01:05.040 drinking is all about, reminding people, say, nudging them right. 1:01:05.600 --> 1:01:08.200 Social norms also is about some people might think, oh, 1:01:08.240 --> 1:01:10.360 on Thursday night, my friends go out and they drink 1:01:10.400 --> 1:01:12.760 six or seven beers. You know what, when you look 1:01:12.760 --> 1:01:15.600 at the data, it's not the case, right there drinking 1:01:15.600 --> 1:01:18.160 one or two. When you remind people of that, you 1:01:18.200 --> 1:01:21.280 can then nudge and change the social norms so people 1:01:21.640 --> 1:01:25.160 behave differently. And that's what social norms is all about. 1:01:25.440 --> 1:01:27.560 What about when it comes to drunk driving right now? 1:01:27.600 --> 1:01:30.680 Because annh hazard Bush has decided to ride campaign has 1:01:30.720 --> 1:01:32.320 partnered with Uber, and I think back to just my 1:01:32.360 --> 1:01:34.640 own experience in my twenties and I lived in the 1:01:34.680 --> 1:01:37.720 mountains and there was no Uber, there was no lift. 1:01:38.240 --> 1:01:40.360 There was a huge problem where I lived when it 1:01:40.400 --> 1:01:43.760 came to drunk driving. Uh. There was this terrible joke 1:01:43.880 --> 1:01:45.480 that you know, to be a local and veil you 1:01:45.520 --> 1:01:47.080 needed to have a c L surgery and a d 1:01:47.200 --> 1:01:51.120 U I because then you really lived there. And I 1:01:51.200 --> 1:01:55.560 wonder how much Uber and lift and ridehiling has changed 1:01:55.560 --> 1:01:58.320 this because it is so easy to find a ride. 1:01:59.040 --> 1:02:02.480 You know, it is all about sort of embracing the moment. Right. 1:02:02.480 --> 1:02:06.560 When technology gives you something that allows you to nudge 1:02:06.680 --> 1:02:11.000 society towards a healthier pattern, towards a social norm that's positive, 1:02:11.280 --> 1:02:12.840 you need to embrace it. And that's why we're so 1:02:12.880 --> 1:02:15.920 happy with Uber and Mothersn' getting strunk driving right as 1:02:16.000 --> 1:02:18.840 part of that program of decide to ride right saying 1:02:18.880 --> 1:02:20.880 to folks, you know what, there is a solution, and 1:02:20.880 --> 1:02:22.960 it's very important to remember to him as well. When 1:02:23.000 --> 1:02:26.520 we talk about decide to ride, it's not just oh hey, 1:02:26.560 --> 1:02:27.960 you get a free ride home or you get a 1:02:28.000 --> 1:02:31.400 discount ride home. It's about the mindset of I'm gonna plan, 1:02:31.880 --> 1:02:34.320 I'm gonna plan to ride. And I love your generational 1:02:34.360 --> 1:02:38.160 approach here because if you talk to the twenty three 1:02:38.240 --> 1:02:41.400 year olds, right, it's almost instinctual now like, well, no, 1:02:41.480 --> 1:02:43.360 I'm gonna use uber the why would I take the rid? 1:02:43.400 --> 1:02:45.640 Why would I do this? And it's a different mindset 1:02:45.680 --> 1:02:47.840 because I'm a little older than you, Tim, but I 1:02:47.920 --> 1:02:51.840 remember that attitude even worse. And what social norms about 1:02:51.920 --> 1:02:55.000 is nudging is changing the way people behave in act 1:02:55.320 --> 1:02:57.920 and that mindset is super powerful and that's why you 1:02:57.920 --> 1:03:01.640 see drunk driving numbers over the last years coming down 1:03:01.680 --> 1:03:04.040 our thanks to John Blood, a bnbev's a chief legal 1:03:04.040 --> 1:03:07.000 in corporate affairs officer and company secretary. You can catch 1:03:07.000 --> 1:03:09.720 that full conversation on our podcast feed that wraps up 1:03:09.720 --> 1:03:12.200 the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week from Bloomberg Radio. 1:03:12.240 --> 1:03:14.240 Thanks so much for joining us. I'm Carol Masser and 1:03:14.240 --> 1:03:16.680 I'm Tim Stenebek. Be sure to tune into Bloomberg Business 1:03:16.680 --> 1:03:18.520 Week Monday through Friday. It starts at two bm Wall 1:03:18.520 --> 1:03:20.840 Street time on Bloomberg Radio. You can also watch our 1:03:20.880 --> 1:03:24.520 daily broadcast on YouTube just search Bloomberg Global News. Also 1:03:24.680 --> 1:03:26.920 check out our Bloomberg Business Week podcast. You can find 1:03:26.960 --> 1:03:29.280 it at Bloomberg dot com, Apple, or wherever you get 1:03:29.320 --> 1:03:32.080 your podcasts. Bloomberg Business Week is available on newstands now, 1:03:32.160 --> 1:03:34.520 at Bloomberg dot com and on the Bloomberg Terminal. You 1:03:34.560 --> 1:03:36.680 can also see me on Bloomberg Quick Take available at 1:03:36.680 --> 1:03:39.720 Bloomberg dot com, slash qt, and streaming platforms like Roadku, 1:03:39.800 --> 1:03:42.880 Apple TV, Samsung TV, and more. Have a great weekend, everyone, 1:03:43.040 --> 1:03:45.680 stay safe and If you do drink, drink responsibly. This 1:03:45.800 --> 1:03:46.440 is Bloomberg