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Speaker 1: Hey everyone, I'm Pat Fitzmorris, managing editor of Fantasy Pros

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Speaker 1: and Betting Pros, and I am going to run through

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Speaker 1: my favorite player props for the Divisional round of the

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Speaker 1: NFL Playoffs. All right, let's get to it, and just

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Speaker 1: a reminder that all lines are courtesy of DraftKings as

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Speaker 1: of Thursday afternoon. Here we go. Let's start with Brock Purdy,

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Speaker 1: forty nine Ers quarterback under thirty point five pass attempts.

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Speaker 1: Purdy has made six starts for the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 1: in place of Jimmy Garoppolo after garppolo season ending injury,

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Speaker 1: and Purdy has thrown more than thirty passes in only

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Speaker 1: one of those six starts. He's averaged twenty five point

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Speaker 1: seven pass attempts in those games. He's going to match

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Speaker 1: up against the Cowboys this week, and this is going

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Speaker 1: to be Perdy's biggest NFL tests so far in his

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Speaker 1: six previous starts, and in fact, in his seven previous

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Speaker 1: games if we want to include the game where he

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Speaker 1: replaced Jimmy Garoppolo very early in the game against Miami,

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Speaker 1: he has not faced a defense. The ranks in the

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Speaker 1: top twelve of Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass, so

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Speaker 1: he's not face to top twelve pass defense, yet Dallas

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Speaker 1: ranks number three in DVA against the pass. The Cowboys

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Speaker 1: pass rush has generated a league high twenty five point

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Speaker 1: six percent pressure rates they can get after the passer.

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Speaker 1: And with linebacker Leyton vander Esh back for the Cowboys,

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Speaker 1: vander ash missed Week sixteen, seventeen eighteen, and when he

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Speaker 1: was out, Micah Parsons was not free to rush the

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Speaker 1: passer as often as the Cowboys would like. Vander Esh

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Speaker 1: is back and now they are turning Micah Parsons loose.

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Speaker 1: That's trouble for Rock Perdy, who's going to have one

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Speaker 1: of the best pass rushers coming after him all day.

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Speaker 1: I think the forty nine ers are going to try

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Speaker 1: to neutralize that pass rush by running the ball early

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Speaker 1: and often. Yeah, this is a dangerous spot for a

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Speaker 1: seventh round rookie quarterback. I think the forty nine ers

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Speaker 1: run it a lot to try to minimize the pressure

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Speaker 1: on Party keep the Dallas pass rush at bay. I

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Speaker 1: don't think they want to put this game in the

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Speaker 1: hands of their inexperienced quarterback. So Brock Purty under thirty

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Speaker 1: and a half pass attempts in this one. Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 1: over two hundred and forty three point five passing yards.

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Speaker 1: The total for Jaguars Chiefs is fifty three points and

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Speaker 1: Kansas City is an eight and a half point favorite,

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Speaker 1: meaning the implied total for Kansas City in this game

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Speaker 1: is thirty point seventy five points. If things go according

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Speaker 1: to the Las Vegas script here, the Jaguars are going

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Speaker 1: to be chasing in this game, and if they're chasing,

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Speaker 1: that means they're throwing aggressively in all likelihood, trying to

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Speaker 1: keep pace with the high flying Chiefs. That was the

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Speaker 1: way it worked out when the Jaguars visited the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: in Week ten. Kansas City won that game twenty seven

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Speaker 1: to seventeen. Lawrence had forty pass attempts in that game

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Speaker 1: and threw four to two hundred and fifty nine yards.

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Speaker 1: The Chiefs have faced the third most pass attempts during

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Speaker 1: the regular season, and Lawrence averaged two forty one point

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Speaker 1: nine passing yards a game, just under this total during

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Speaker 1: the regular season. But I think we're going to see

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars forced to throw more than usual this week.

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Speaker 1: So Trevor Lawrence over two hundred and forty three point

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Speaker 1: five passing yards Joe Burrow under two hundred and seventy

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Speaker 1: nine point five passing yards. Rarely would I consider betting

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Speaker 1: against Burrow. I don't like betting unders with him because

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Speaker 1: I think he's awesome. But he is going to be

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Speaker 1: playing behind a patchwork offensive line this week against the

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Speaker 1: Bills Sunday in Buffalo. Starting right tackle Laale Collins out

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Speaker 1: for the year with the torn ACL and MCL. Starting

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Speaker 1: left tackle Jonah Williams dislocated his kneecap last week against

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Speaker 1: the Ravens. He's going to be out. Starting right tackle

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Speaker 1: Alex Kappa. He's got a severe ankle injury. I saw

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Speaker 1: a replay of that ankle injury this morning. I don't

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Speaker 1: think he's playing this week. So yeah, that's down three

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Speaker 1: offensive linemen. And last week with all those offensive linemen

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Speaker 1: banged up, you know, two of them leaving the game.

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Speaker 1: Last week, Burrow threw for only two hundred and nine

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Speaker 1: yards against the Ravens, and he averaged six point five

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Speaker 1: yards per pass attempt, which compares to seven point four

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Speaker 1: per attempt during the regular season. So yeah, the Bengals

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Speaker 1: passing game was limited with all those offensive linemen Hurts.

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Speaker 1: We saw Burrow throwing much shorter passes, not really attacking

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Speaker 1: down field like Jamar Chase had nine receptions in that

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Speaker 1: game but averaged under ten yards per catch. I think

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Speaker 1: Burrow is to have trouble generating big plays in the

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Speaker 1: passing game this week, so under two hundred and seventy

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Speaker 1: nine point five yards seems like a really good percentage

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Speaker 1: play this week. I'll get to the rest of my

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Speaker 1: favorite props for the Divisional Round in just a minute,

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Speaker 1: but first, whether you're looking for access to exclusive picks,

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Speaker 1: top rated player props, or custom analysis of your own

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Speaker 1: betting performances, Betting Pros Premium has the tools to help

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Speaker 1: you cash more bats, plain and simple. Sign up today

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Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com, slash upgrade and start betting smarter,

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Speaker 1: not harder. All right, back to the player props trays

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Speaker 1: CTN under seventy point five rushing yards and this one

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Speaker 1: really goes hand in hand with the over on Trevor

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Speaker 1: Lawrence's passing yardage. With the Jaguars eight and a half

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Speaker 1: point underdogs, there's a good chance they're going to be

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Speaker 1: in chase mode playing catchup against the Chiefs, which would

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Speaker 1: mean a passa game script, and again we did see

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Speaker 1: that when the Jaguars played the Chiefs in Week ten.

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Speaker 1: Chiefs won by ten points, twenty seven to seventeen, and

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Speaker 1: Etn had eleven carries for forty five yards in that game.

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Speaker 1: Kansas City's defense has been a pass funnel all season,

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Speaker 1: largely because opponents are in catchup mode so often. The

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Speaker 1: Chiefs faced the fourth fewest rushing attempts by running backs

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Speaker 1: during the regular season and gave up the eighth fewest

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Speaker 1: rushing yards to running backs. Travis Etn under seventeen and

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Speaker 1: a half rushing yards Kadarius Tony of the Chiefs under

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Speaker 1: thirty one point five receiving yards. When Tony last faced

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars in Week ten, he had four catches for

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Speaker 1: fifty seven yards and a touchdown. It was his second

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Speaker 1: highest yardage total in his seven games with the Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: But in the five games he's played since, Tony has

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Speaker 1: caught eight passes for one hundred and two yards, averaging

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Speaker 1: only two targets a game during that span. He just

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Speaker 1: has not been very involved in the Kansas City passing game,

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Speaker 1: and Tony played a season high twenty eight snaps when

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Speaker 1: he played the Jaguars back in Week ten, but he

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Speaker 1: has not played more than nineteen snaps in any game since,

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Speaker 1: and he's averaged just fourteen point four snaps over his

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Speaker 1: last five games. So with a few opportunities as Tony

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Speaker 1: has been getting, I think it seems pretty unlikely he

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Speaker 1: is going to exceed thirty one and a half receiving yards.

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Speaker 1: AJ Brown over seventy one point five receiving yards. This

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Speaker 1: is a momentum selection. AJ Brown has cleared this number

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Speaker 1: seventy one and a half in four straight games and

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Speaker 1: in five of the last six. Two of his last

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Speaker 1: six games were against the Giants. He had four catches

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Speaker 1: for seventy yards and one touchdown in one of those games,

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Speaker 1: and four catches for ninety five yards and no touchdowns

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Speaker 1: in one of those games, so one out of two

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Speaker 1: hitting this number against the job. But since the beginning

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Speaker 1: of December, Brown has averaged nine point eight targets, five

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Speaker 1: point eight receptions, and one hundred and ten point eight

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Speaker 1: receiving yards per game. He has been a monster for

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Speaker 1: the Eagles down the stretch. In his two most recent

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Speaker 1: playoff performances, Brown had six catches for eighty three yards

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Speaker 1: and a touchdown. Against the Ravens in January of twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty one, and he had five catches for one hundred

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Speaker 1: and forty two yards and a touchdown against the Bengals

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Speaker 1: in January of twenty twenty two. Mind you, that was

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Speaker 1: with the Tennessee Titans, who have a far less potent

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Speaker 1: offense than the Philadelphia Eagles. I really like aj Brown

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Speaker 1: over seventy one and a half receiving yards against the

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Speaker 1: Giants this weekend, and finally, for a third straight week,

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Speaker 1: I'm going with the Haydenhurst under on receiving yard edge.

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Speaker 1: It's set at thirty three and a half this week.

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Speaker 1: Hearst has played nine games this season in which Bengals

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Speaker 1: why receiver Jamar Chase and t Higgins have both been active,

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Speaker 1: and he has finished with under thirty receiving yards in

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Speaker 1: six of those nine games. Hurst is facing a Buffalo

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Speaker 1: defense that has been stingy toward tight ends this season,

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Speaker 1: allowing just thirty eight and a half receiving yards per

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Speaker 1: game to tight ends during the regular season. It's possible that,

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Speaker 1: with the Bengals missing all of these offensive linemen, including

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Speaker 1: both of their starting offensive tackles, that Hurst runs fewer

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Speaker 1: routes than usual and is asked to stay in and

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Speaker 1: chip block against the Buffalo edge rushers this week, So

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Speaker 1: possible he's not as busy as a pass catcher this week,

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Speaker 1: and I like the under on Hayden Hurst at thirty

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Speaker 1: three point five receiving yards. So let's recap this week's selections.

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Speaker 1: Brock Purty under thirty point five passing attempts, Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 1: over two hundred and forty three point five passing yards,

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow under two hundred and seventy nine point five

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Speaker 1: passing yards, Travis Etn under seventy point five rushing yards,

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Speaker 1: Kadarius Tony under thirty one point five receiving yards, AJ

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Speaker 1: Brown over seventy one point five receiving yards, and Hayden

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Speaker 1: Hurst under thirty three point five receiving yards. All right,

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Speaker 1: my friends, good luck to you with all your wagers

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Speaker 1: this weekend, and let's hope the divisional round as entertaining

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Speaker 1: as Super wild Card weekend was last week. Good luck everyone,