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Speaker 1: Here we go, another episode of fish Bites coming at

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Speaker 1: you on the fish Stripes podcast. It's Eli Sussman back again,

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Speaker 1: managing editor at fish Stripes. Full coverage of the Miami

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Speaker 1: Marlins and all related topics on fish stripes dot com

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Speaker 1: and our social media accounts at fish Stripes on Twitter, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: and Facebook. This week on fish Bites, we will be

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Speaker 1: continuing Ultimate Marlin's Depth Charts. That's the series of position

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Speaker 1: by position analysis of the existing talent in the Marlins organization.

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Speaker 1: So that includes the current major leaguers, all standout prospects

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Speaker 1: at various stages of their development, plus my quote curiosities

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Speaker 1: who provide some sort of unique background or skill set

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Speaker 1: that they don't fit neatly into one of these other

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Speaker 1: conventional categories, but are definitely worth monitoring as we head

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Speaker 1: towards twenty twenty. The previous episode was the first in

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Speaker 1: this depth chart series. We focused on the right handed pictures,

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Speaker 1: the obvious ones in the major league rotation like Sandy Alcantra,

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Speaker 1: Pablo Lopez, the relievers at the major league level as well,

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Speaker 1: but we went all the way through the organization to

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Speaker 1: the top prospects from Sixto Sanchez and George Guzman to

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Speaker 1: ones that just signed out of this most recent twenty

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Speaker 1: nineteen draft class. So we broke it all the way down.

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Speaker 1: If you miss that one, I really encourage you to

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Speaker 1: go back and check it out on our podcast feed

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Speaker 1: or again on the website. All these episodes are posted there,

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Speaker 1: and we're going to keep these organized as we go

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Speaker 1: to the different positions. As this part of the slow

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Speaker 1: part of the off season goes on, we're taking stock

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Speaker 1: of all the talent at these spots so that we

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Speaker 1: could better understand where the Marlins go from here and

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Speaker 1: how you move forward from a fifty seven win team

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Speaker 1: to one that's supposed to be much more competitive this

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Speaker 1: next season and then certainly more the couple of years

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Speaker 1: after that. But first it must be mentioned that I

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Speaker 1: am recording this in the midst of the MLB postseason.

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Speaker 1: It is the sixteenth consecutive year that the Marlins are

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Speaker 1: not involved directly as one of the postseason teams. But

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Speaker 1: as we've noted all month long, every single team that

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Speaker 1: qualified for the twenty nineteen postseason had some sort of

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Speaker 1: Marlins connection to it. All ten teams that made it

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Speaker 1: into October as a division winner or a wild Card,

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Speaker 1: and that is holds true for the two teams that

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Speaker 1: have made it all the way through to the World Series.

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Speaker 1: That World Series starts on Tuesday in Houston, the Astros

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Speaker 1: facing off against the Washington Nationals. The Astros just two

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Speaker 1: years ago won their first World Series in franchise history,

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Speaker 1: with some contributions from Jake Morisnik. Once a big time

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Speaker 1: outfield prospect in the Marlins organization and originally from the

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Speaker 1: Blue Jays organisation, he's now been with the Astros a

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Speaker 1: handful of years and he's had a steady role as

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Speaker 1: their fourth outfielder, valuable as a base runner, as a

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Speaker 1: defensive replacement, not so much as a hitter, but nonetheless,

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Speaker 1: he's been involved throughout this postseason run and expect to

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Speaker 1: see him in the Fall Classic as well. He's looking

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Speaker 1: for his second World Series ring in three years. On

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Speaker 1: the other side, with the Nationals, maybe you feel a

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Speaker 1: little bit more animosity to them being a division rival

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Speaker 1: of the Marlins, but they do have some stronger ties

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Speaker 1: than the Astros do. That begins with Honeyball Sanchez in

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Speaker 1: their rotation the very back end of their starting rotation,

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Speaker 1: but he's already had his big shining moment during this postseason.

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Speaker 1: During the National League Championship Series, he had a masterpiece

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Speaker 1: that helped them sweep the series. That he pitched Game

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Speaker 1: three of the series and had a no hitter going

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Speaker 1: pretty deep along in that and very quietly. If you

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Speaker 1: look at his career postseason resume, it's extremely impressive. Although

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Speaker 1: he's never been involved with a World Series champ until

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Speaker 1: perhaps this year, he may not be pitching the most

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Speaker 1: significant endings coming up in this World Series, considering that

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Speaker 1: the Nationals had more than a week off to prepare

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Speaker 1: for this. He may be limited more so to mop

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Speaker 1: up duty or emergencies, but still involved nonetheless, and he

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Speaker 1: couldn't happen to a better guy, so very easy to

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Speaker 1: root for. Also on their active roster, someone that you

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Speaker 1: certainly don't have any fond feelings to as a Marlins fan,

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Speaker 1: is Fernando Rodney, forty two years young, I believe, the

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Speaker 1: oldest active player in the major leagues right now, and

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Speaker 1: who knows whether he comes back for twenty twenty. This

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Speaker 1: could be some of the final innings he pitches at

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Speaker 1: the major league level. Been bouncing around a lot ever

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Speaker 1: since that brief stint with the Marlins in twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 1: and now with the Nationals in their bullpen. He's only

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Speaker 1: pitched a couple of times in this entire postseason run,

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Speaker 1: but thus far he's been able to squeak out of

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Speaker 1: those situations without allowing a run, contributing his own way.

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Speaker 1: If things go according to plan for the Nationals, though,

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Speaker 1: he won't be all that prominently involved in this World Series,

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Speaker 1: you would think. Also off the field advising their front

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Speaker 1: office is trader Jack McKeon, even older than Rodney, probably

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Speaker 1: about it twice as old as Rodney at this point.

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Speaker 1: I believe this is his first year with a job

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Speaker 1: in the NATS organization. You'll remember that all the way

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Speaker 1: up until the Marlins ownership change a couple of years ago,

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Speaker 1: he still had a role with the Marlins themselves, and

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Speaker 1: he provided that nice link to the two thousand and

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Speaker 1: three World Series champs. So it was disappointing that that

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Speaker 1: had to end. And whether or not that did have

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Speaker 1: to end, that's going to be up for debate whether

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Speaker 1: they wanted to turn a new leaf or not in

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Speaker 1: those advisory roles. Either way, he's an easy, got it

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Speaker 1: root for so it's good to see that another team

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Speaker 1: values his input. And I guess he's had the magic touch,

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Speaker 1: because this is the first time in National's history that

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Speaker 1: they've been able to make it to the World Series.

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Speaker 1: The main rooms reason why I bring up the postseason

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Speaker 1: actually is to focus on two guys that are no

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Speaker 1: longer alive in the championship hunt this year. They were

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Speaker 1: just eliminated this past week in the Championship Series. On

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Speaker 1: the American League side, the Astros had to go through

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Speaker 1: the mighty New York Yankees and it took six hard

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Speaker 1: fought games for them to prevail. So eliminated in the

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Speaker 1: process was gian Carlos Stanton, the former nl MVP, one

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Speaker 1: of the most productive players in Marlins franchise history, an

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Speaker 1: author of perhaps the single most valuable season by a

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Speaker 1: Marlins player. On the National League side, the Nationals swept

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Speaker 1: through the Saint Louis Cardinals and in the middle of

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Speaker 1: their lineup another very popular outfielder, Marcel Ozuna, traded right

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Speaker 1: around the same time that Stanton was and relied very

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Speaker 1: heavily upon by the Cardinals team in order to get

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Speaker 1: to this point. Now that the season is over, for

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Speaker 1: those two guys and for Ozuna, now coming up on

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Speaker 1: being a free agent, for the first time in his career.

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Speaker 1: I thought was the perfect time to check in on

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Speaker 1: how those trades have played out. No doubt, two of

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Speaker 1: the most important trades in Marlin's history, and that whole

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Speaker 1: exodus of star players during that seventeen twenty eighteen offseason

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Speaker 1: was critical to resetting this team and changing the entire

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Speaker 1: identity that the team had. These guys were right in

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Speaker 1: the middle of it. They were sent to teams that

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Speaker 1: had aspirations of being contenders. I've already mentioned it. Neither

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Speaker 1: of those teams have made it to the World Series

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Speaker 1: in the two years with those guys. The Marlins overall

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Speaker 1: got seven players in return of those two trades, with

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Speaker 1: the hopes of those players plugging a lot of holes

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Speaker 1: for the Marlins for the foreseeable future. In twenty eighteen

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Speaker 1: and twenty nineteen, we saw some glimpses from players involved

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Speaker 1: in those trades, and it's too early still to pass

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Speaker 1: final grades on how those deals went down. I know

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Speaker 1: that people want to jump to those conclusions, but until

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Speaker 1: we see what the Marlins actually get from these guys

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Speaker 1: as part of their core moving forward, and whether that

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Speaker 1: actually leads to anything substantial for the team as a whole,

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Speaker 1: it still seems a little bit premature. Nonetheless, we've already

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Speaker 1: gotten a lot of information about what the outdoing stars

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Speaker 1: have done for their new teams and whether it was

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Speaker 1: really worth that price of sacrifice in order to go

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Speaker 1: all in during this part of their competitive window. Taking

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Speaker 1: you back to December twenty seventeen, at the MLB Winter Meetings,

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Speaker 1: the Yankees announced acquired gian Carlos Stanton, agreeing to pay

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Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty five million dollars of the two

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Speaker 1: hundred and ninety five million that was still remaining on

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Speaker 1: his then record extension. They saw him as a critical

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Speaker 1: piece of the middle of their lineup. A lot was

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Speaker 1: made about how him and Aaron Judge were the two

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Speaker 1: most prominent sluggers in all of baseball, and guys that

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Speaker 1: would resembled each other, had similar profiles, would offer each

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Speaker 1: their protection in the lineup, and how well that would

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Speaker 1: work for Yankees team that was coming off already making

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Speaker 1: it to the Alcs, and how this was going to

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Speaker 1: make the team even stronger. Stanton, for his part, seemed

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Speaker 1: very excited about the change in scenery and the Marlins

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Speaker 1: had it coming to them. I mean, first of all,

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Speaker 1: it was Jeffrey Laurier that gave Stanton that massive extension

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Speaker 1: without like feasibly understanding how exactly they were going to

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Speaker 1: pay him and still build a good team around him.

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Speaker 1: That was no longer his problem when he sold the

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Speaker 1: team to Bruce Sherman, Derek Cheeter and company. But as

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Speaker 1: soon as those new owners took over, they didn't shy

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Speaker 1: away from making it clear that they wanted to trade Stanton.

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Speaker 1: For as much as he meant to the Marlins organization,

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Speaker 1: he was standing in the way of the team being

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Speaker 1: profitable and competitive just from the fact that he agreed

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Speaker 1: to that big extension that he signed. So the fact

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Speaker 1: that they were very transparent about wanting to trade him,

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Speaker 1: that had Stanton feeling a certain type of way, and

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Speaker 1: he was very layer with communicating that publicly. So he

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Speaker 1: goes to the Yankees and from the very beginning of

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Speaker 1: his season he gets off to a slow start, which

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Speaker 1: is not unusual for Stanton if you had known his

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Speaker 1: history with the Marlins earlier in the decade getting off

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Speaker 1: to slow starts generally being a streaky player. He caught

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Speaker 1: fire towards the middle of the year. He also suffered

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Speaker 1: a hamstring injury towards the middle of the year. This

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Speaker 1: is twenty eighteen, his first year with the new team,

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Speaker 1: and overall he was still a very good player. He

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Speaker 1: didn't get any MVP votes. I don't even think he

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Speaker 1: was an All Star that year, but he was still

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Speaker 1: a very productive player. He led the Yankees in a

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Speaker 1: variety of counting stats. The Yankees went on to win

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Speaker 1: one hundred games. They went to the postseason as a

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Speaker 1: wild card, and they got eliminated in the Division Series

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Speaker 1: to the eventual World Series champion Red Sox, where Stanton

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Speaker 1: did not look all that great in his first postseason series,

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Speaker 1: although we did hit a big home run I believe

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Speaker 1: in the wild card game that year. Then, coming into

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Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, his second year with the new team, he

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Speaker 1: wanted to prove some haters wrong that now that he

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Speaker 1: was more comfortable to the organization, he would unleash the

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Speaker 1: full compliment of his skills, that he would be willing

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Speaker 1: to play more games defensively in a left field rather

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Speaker 1: than as a designated hitter, that he could cut down

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Speaker 1: on the strikeouts after whipping more than two hundred times

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Speaker 1: the previous year, and that he could hit it out

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Speaker 1: of the ballpark as much as anybody and start to

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Speaker 1: rival his MVP form rather than his twenty eighteen form. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: he didn't get the chance to prove much of anything.

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Speaker 1: Just a few games into the regular season, suffered a

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Speaker 1: biceps injury that kept him out for more than a month.

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Speaker 1: After returning from that, very promptly after, he suffered a

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Speaker 1: knee sprain that took away the middle of his season

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Speaker 1: all the way deep into September. I believe he had

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Speaker 1: some sort of setback along the way with that knee,

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Speaker 1: where he played nine games in September only nine games

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Speaker 1: in all the months prior to September. The Yankees cruised

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Speaker 1: pretty clear, pretty easily to an American League East Division

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Speaker 1: time title without Stanton. He came back when that was

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Speaker 1: already wrapped up, but he looked good enough down the

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Speaker 1: stretch that they plugged him into the postseason lineup. He

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Speaker 1: hit into some tough luck during the postseason, but also

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Speaker 1: had a big home run in the game one of

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Speaker 1: the Alcs that allowed the Yankees to secure that win

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Speaker 1: that put them in a good position to take that

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Speaker 1: series from the Astros. But in the process of that

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Speaker 1: first game of the series, he also suffered a strained quad,

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Speaker 1: another injury one that typically would sign on you for

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Speaker 1: a number of weeks that if you've ever had a

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Speaker 1: strange quad, you can't really play baseball during it because

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Speaker 1: it affects you in all facets of the game, especially running,

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Speaker 1: where it pretty much takes away your ability to run.

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Speaker 1: But they did put him in the lineup as a

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Speaker 1: designated hitter in Game five after a few days off.

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Speaker 1: There's been some discussion about how exactly that was played,

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Speaker 1: whether they should have put him in when he was

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Speaker 1: far from one hundred percent, or on the flip side,

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Speaker 1: whether he should have missed any games at all, because

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Speaker 1: these were elimination games are close to it, the most

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Speaker 1: important games of the year. The reality is that he

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Speaker 1: asked him to the lineup, they put him in the lineup.

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Speaker 1: But then, after a somewhat ugly performance during that game,

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Speaker 1: even in a Marlin, even in a Yankees win, he

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Speaker 1: did not come back out there for Game six and

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Speaker 1: they went down in that ultimate game without him playing

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Speaker 1: any role at all. So that puts a pretty bad

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Speaker 1: taste in his mouth going into the offseason. Overall, the

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Speaker 1: Yankees have been a great team these past two years

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Speaker 1: when he's been in the lineup. They win at a

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Speaker 1: six to twenty five winning percentage rate one hundred and

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Speaker 1: ten and sixty six in games that he doesn't play

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Speaker 1: during the regular season these past two years almost identical

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Speaker 1: a six twenty eight winning percentage ninety three and fifty five.

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Speaker 1: So that tells you that well, it's an organization with

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Speaker 1: great depth, and even though Stanton is the highest paid

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Speaker 1: player on a very high payroll team, he is not

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Speaker 1: essential to what they do. Although he's certainly had his

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Speaker 1: positive impact during that twenty eighteenth season, he hasn't really

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Speaker 1: moved the needle per se for them, and that was

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Speaker 1: the all idea of acquiring them. He's about to turn

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Speaker 1: thirty years old, still with eight guaranteed years left on

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Speaker 1: his contract at a time if you pay attention to

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Speaker 1: aging curves of other big sluggers, it's not all that

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Speaker 1: pretty once you get past the age of thirty. So

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Speaker 1: although he is an exceptionally well toned athlete with a

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Speaker 1: very unique skill set, it's a big question about whether

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Speaker 1: he'll ever get back to that MVP form that he

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Speaker 1: had with the Marlins. On the flip side, in the

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Speaker 1: Stanton trade going down to Miami, there were three players involved.

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Speaker 1: Right hander George Guzman was the biggest asset at that time.

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Speaker 1: He was one of the most highly regarded Yankee pitchers

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Speaker 1: in that farm system. Amazing fastball velocity, a nice breaking ball,

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Speaker 1: and he was coming off a productive season. He his

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Speaker 1: he took his lumps at High A Jupiter in twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 1: The Marlins gave in a pretty aggressive assignment, and he

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Speaker 1: simply couldn't throw enough strikes, and even when he got

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Speaker 1: ahead in the county, he couldn't finish off batters. So

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Speaker 1: that was somewhat of a concerning year. Fortunately, he bounced

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Speaker 1: back from that here in twenty nineteen, promoted to Double

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Speaker 1: A Jacksonville, and he led all Marlins prospects and Ennings pitched.

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Speaker 1: We talked about him in much more detail on the

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Speaker 1: previous episode, so I'm not going to rehash all that.

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Speaker 1: Just know that he's on the forty man roster now

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Speaker 1: heading into his age twenty four season. He seems almost

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Speaker 1: assured of being a call up to the major leagues.

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Speaker 1: The secondary prospect in that deal was shortstop Jose Devers,

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Speaker 1: who was just turned eighteen years old at the time

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Speaker 1: of that trade, was right around his eighteenth birthday and

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Speaker 1: he hadn't been able to show much of anything playing

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Speaker 1: at rookie level ball, but the Marlins put him at

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Speaker 1: the full season level in twenty eighteen, and he immediately

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00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:55,720
Speaker 1: saw his stock surge quite a bit. Showed a great

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Speaker 1: defensive skill set as well as contact ability, and he

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Speaker 1: earned a promotion late in the year all the way

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Speaker 1: to Highate Jupiter, where he was one of the youngest

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Speaker 1: players in the entire Florida State League. That rise has

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Speaker 1: continued somewhat here in twenty nineteen, where with Jupiter, he

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Speaker 1: got off to a sizzling start at the plate and

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Speaker 1: in the field, one of the better players on the

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Speaker 1: team at age nineteen, but he suffered an injury pretty

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Speaker 1: early on that took him out for a few weeks,

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Speaker 1: and then when came back from that, he suffered a

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Speaker 1: second injury of fore armstrain that wiped out most of

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Speaker 1: his summer, which is why he's still playing baseball right

301
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Speaker 1: now in the Arizona Fall League to make up for

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Speaker 1: some of his mixed at bats. Not hitting quite as

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Speaker 1: well in the Fall League as we speak, Shade over

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Speaker 1: two hundred, and he's playing some on the second base

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Speaker 1: on a roster that is clogged up with shortstops, but

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Speaker 1: he does have all the skills that you look for

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Speaker 1: in a future major league shortstop, so there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of optimism about that, the question being whether he can

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00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:58,840
Speaker 1: never hit for any sort of power, the polar opposite

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Speaker 1: of Stanton. He hasn't hit a single ball over the

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Speaker 1: fence since coming into the Marlins organization. And thirdly, included

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Speaker 1: to balance out the salaries in the steal somewhat second

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Speaker 1: basement Starlin Castro. He had been with the Yankees in

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Speaker 1: the past couple of years, and now he was somewhat

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Speaker 1: expendable to them because of Glabor Torres coming up through

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Speaker 1: their system over these past two years. It does appear

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Speaker 1: the Yankees chose right for them in that situation where

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Speaker 1: Glaber Torres has exceeded Castro's production, but Castro has been

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Speaker 1: extremely durable in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen for the Marlins.

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Speaker 1: Twenty eighteen was a pretty consistent year for him, where

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Speaker 1: he was approximately a league average hitter and his defense

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Speaker 1: surprised a little bit, where he's surprisingly solid as a

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Speaker 1: second basement more or less an average everyday player, and

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Speaker 1: that's a pretty good value. Ad That year was less

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Speaker 1: than eleven million dollars in salary, so a little bit

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Speaker 1: more expensive in twenty nineteen, and got off to just

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Speaker 1: a miserable start at the plate. It was if it

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Speaker 1: was a bigger market team, you would have had all

329
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Speaker 1: the analysts in baseball like scratching their heads about Castro

330
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Speaker 1: because he was one of the least valuable players in

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Speaker 1: baseball in March, April, May June. He was hitting way

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Speaker 1: too many ground balls, couldn't get the ball in the

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Speaker 1: air against anybody, wasn't running all that well. His defense

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Speaker 1: had tooken what seemed to be a half step back,

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Speaker 1: and he flipped a switch right in the middle of

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Speaker 1: the year, right before the All Star break. It wasn't

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00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:31,480
Speaker 1: enough to redeem any trade value. The Marlins were hoping

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Speaker 1: to flip him coming up in the midst of the

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00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:37,240
Speaker 1: last guaranteed year of his contract, and they weren't able

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Speaker 1: to do that. But instead he just stayed red hot

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Speaker 1: the last three months of the year. He was the

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00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:46,159
Speaker 1: most valuable Marlins hitter in those three months July August

343
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Speaker 1: September an LPs right around nine hundred. During that time,

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00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,640
Speaker 1: the defense was shired up and he got pushed over

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Speaker 1: to third base. With the promotion of eastn Diez Castro

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Speaker 1: handled that in stride. Would you have to credit him

347
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Speaker 1: for it is he was a good presence in the

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00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:05,280
Speaker 1: clubhouse and that wasn't necessarily assured based on his history

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Speaker 1: getting back to the days of the Chicago Cubs. So

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Speaker 1: that was somewhat of redeeming quality to him that he

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Speaker 1: was a veteran in this clubhouse when the Marlins did

352
00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,119
Speaker 1: not have very many veterans that were also producing on

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Speaker 1: the field. That being said, the ultimate gauge of how

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Speaker 1: this trade worked out for the Marlins is going to

355
00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,960
Speaker 1: be if they get anything at all from Guzman Endeavors

356
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Speaker 1: at the major league level. Both those guys as we

357
00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:35,560
Speaker 1: speak are firmly within the Marlins top thirty prospects Devors

358
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:40,679
Speaker 1: right around twelve to fifteen, Guzman right around fifteen to twenty,

359
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 1: depending on what lists you value and what qualities you

360
00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:46,920
Speaker 1: value in a developing player. But both of them should

361
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:48,680
Speaker 1: be on the way to the major leagues. The question

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00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 1: is what they're going to do once they get there.

363
00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:54,639
Speaker 1: And for the Yankees, they're a team better equipped than

364
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Speaker 1: anybody else to live with an albatross contract, and unfortunately

365
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 1: that's probably what Stanton is going to become eventually. The

366
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Speaker 1: question is whether they can seize on their competitive window

367
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Speaker 1: over these next two years and get over that hump,

368
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Speaker 1: get to the World Series, win a World Series. Stanton,

369
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Speaker 1: at the very least in the American League, He's going

370
00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:16,359
Speaker 1: to be a dangerous bat in your lineup when he's healthy.

371
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Speaker 1: This was somewhat of an anomaly year for him and

372
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Speaker 1: that he had these three separate injuries all impact him

373
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:28,399
Speaker 1: at different times and for significantly impairing his abilities. But

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Speaker 1: in all honesty, we know that for much of his

375
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Speaker 1: career he has been able to fight through those injuries

376
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Speaker 1: and still be a valuable member of the team. So

377
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Speaker 1: that's what I expect moving forward. All hope is not lost.

378
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Speaker 1: Although the outlook on this trade, i'd have to admit,

379
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 1: is not super bright for either organization. There's not a

380
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:50,040
Speaker 1: whole lot to celebrate at this particular moment, yet some

381
00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 1: reasons to be optimistic about what they're going to get

382
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:56,440
Speaker 1: out of these players these next few years. So now

383
00:20:56,480 --> 00:21:00,199
Speaker 1: to analyze the marcell Ozuna situation. Traded just a few

384
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Speaker 1: days after Stanton was in late twenty seventeen to the Cardinals.

385
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Speaker 1: He had two years of team control, remaining not a

386
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Speaker 1: contract but arbitration eligible those last two years part of

387
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,959
Speaker 1: a five player deal with the Cardinals. These past two

388
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,920
Speaker 1: years slightly better than a league average hitter, but eight

389
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 1: percent better if you go by weighted runs created plus

390
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 1: two sixty two, batting average three twenty seven, on base

391
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 1: percentage four to fifty one, slugging fifty two home runs

392
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy seven RBI combined between the two years,

393
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:32,160
Speaker 1: adding up the whole package valued at five point four

394
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Speaker 1: fan grafts wins above replacement, and that was right in

395
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Speaker 1: the middle of the pack if you look at all

396
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 1: qualified outfielders over the last two seasons, forty eight qualified

397
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 1: outfielders twenty fifth in wins above replacement according to fangrafts.

398
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Speaker 1: So nothing special. He was better than the average major

399
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 1: league player, but in terms of ones that were actually

400
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 1: trusted with everyday jobs, ones who were durable, and although

401
00:21:56,600 --> 00:22:00,240
Speaker 1: Ozooma suffered a couple injuries, he was durable overall. Just

402
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 1: nothing special, which is somewhat of a leftdown considering the

403
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 1: year that he was coming off of in twenty seventeen.

404
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 1: It was a breakout career year for him. It wasn't

405
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:13,880
Speaker 1: an MVP candidate that year considering what Stanton had done

406
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 1: at the exact same time, not that far behind, though,

407
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,719
Speaker 1: just one of the league's most effective offensive players. And

408
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 1: that was his first year transitioning to left field, which

409
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 1: is where he's been with the Cardinals. And if you're

410
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 1: wondering why exactly his total value seems so pedestrian for

411
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 1: someone we know is so talented, it has to do

412
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,960
Speaker 1: with someone with the defense as well, where very early

413
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:39,680
Speaker 1: in his Cardinals career, the throwing arm just went caput.

414
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 1: He's had some chronic shoulder issues that have sapped his

415
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 1: arm strength. He's still been able to do some effective

416
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 1: things defensively, but he has his occasional awkward plague even

417
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 1: with Miami, and a couple of viral ones now with

418
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 1: the Cardinals where he's misjudged flyballs that he should have

419
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 1: been able to catch. But also the simple loss of

420
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 1: arm strength, which was big asset to him early in

421
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 1: his career, that matters. That really adds up over time,

422
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 1: even though he's still able to move around pretty well

423
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Speaker 1: still in his late twenties, so not exactly at a

424
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 1: time where you'd expect him to slow down. And that

425
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 1: aspect of the game, but losing the arm strength because

426
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 1: of the shoulder issues has been has put a big

427
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 1: cloud over his future heading into the free agency. The

428
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 1: Cardinals when he was playing games for them over the

429
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 1: past two years, they were good a five point forty

430
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,360
Speaker 1: winning percentage one hundred and fifty to one twenty eight.

431
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 1: When he did miss time with some nagging injuries. It's

432
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 1: a much smaller sample, so they don't overreact, but the

433
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 1: Cardinals when they were ozunalists had a six thirty winning

434
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 1: percentage twenty nineteen to twenty nine wins seventeen losses in

435
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: those forty six games without him, which, like the Yankees,

436
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,440
Speaker 1: just speaks to the depth that the Cardinals had they

437
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,240
Speaker 1: thought Ozuna would move the needle for them. They'd missed

438
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 1: the playoffs a couple of years before acquiring him, and

439
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 1: all though they missed it again in twenty eighteen, they

440
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 1: were able to surge enough late this year to get

441
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:09,360
Speaker 1: in and win a series. All in all, interesting year

442
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:11,880
Speaker 1: for the Cardinals, and I don't think one that they

443
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 1: regret all that much, But they gave up a lot

444
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,679
Speaker 1: of quantity in this deal. At the time, it was

445
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 1: perceived to be quantity over quality without any slam dunk

446
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 1: major league difference makers that were being traded from their

447
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 1: farm system. But as it turns out, they just have

448
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 1: a lot of outfield depth in their organization, guys that

449
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 1: bring different skill sets, And although Azuna was helpful, I

450
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 1: think they're always going to be questioning whether or not

451
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,920
Speaker 1: he made their team dramatically better over these past two years.

452
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 1: On the other side of the equation, the headliner at

453
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 1: the time and is hoping to prove himself to be

454
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 1: the most valuable piece involved with Sandy al Contra in

455
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 1: his two years with the Marlins. We've already mentioned this

456
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 1: on the previous episode. A three eighty one Era four

457
00:24:56,359 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 1: fifty eight fielder independent pitching a two point five I've

458
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 1: fangrass wins above replacement in two hundred and thirty one

459
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 1: total endings pitched over these last two years. With him

460
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 1: hitting his stride, especially in this past August and September,

461
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 1: the biggest lingering question from this trade is whether Sandy

462
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 1: will be the most valuable he is involved, or will

463
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 1: be Zach Gallen, who's now no longer in Marlin. When

464
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 1: he was a Marlin and just seven starts called up

465
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 1: this in the middle of twenty nineteen, he had two

466
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: seventy two ERA a three point fifty seven fielder independent pitching,

467
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,639
Speaker 1: and was supported nearly one win above replacement in just

468
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,160
Speaker 1: seven starts. But then at the trade deadline they flip

469
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:41,199
Speaker 1: him to Arizona to get shortstop Jazz Chisholm, who is

470
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 1: even more upside than Gallen, but obviously no major league

471
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 1: production to speak of and a more risky profile. Meanwhile, meanwhile,

472
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 1: Galen went over to Arizona and he basically continued doing

473
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,239
Speaker 1: what he had done with the Marlins. Not somebody that

474
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 1: you would anticipate being a true top of the rotation pitcher,

475
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,439
Speaker 1: but a very safe bet because he has several different

476
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 1: weapons that he trusts a lot. With Sandy, it's mostly

477
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 1: about the sinker. With Gallon, you like the fastball and

478
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 1: the change up and the breaking ball. There's a lot

479
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 1: of ways that he can beat you, and they're almost

480
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 1: exactly the same age, which means you're not really grading

481
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,639
Speaker 1: anything on a curve at this point. It's basically just

482
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 1: looking at the results at the major league level. That's

483
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 1: gonna be a fascinating story to follow. Moving forward, in

484
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 1: the original trade, we go back to the two other

485
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 1: pieces involved were outfielder Magnari Sierra, who has had a

486
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 1: cup of coffee with the Marlins each of the past

487
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 1: two years. Still just twenty two years old, so it

488
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:41,320
Speaker 1: will be age twenty three season in twenty twenty. He's

489
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:43,640
Speaker 1: had a couple hamstring issues the past two years, which

490
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 1: is concerning for someone that relies so much on his

491
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 1: running ability. The nice sign was that he was hitting

492
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 1: more effectively during his brief time up in the majors

493
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:57,399
Speaker 1: this year than he had been in twenty eighteen, using

494
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,040
Speaker 1: all fields and as a base runner. He was a

495
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,639
Speaker 1: lot smarter on the basis for a guy with that

496
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 1: kind of ability, understanding the situations once you use it

497
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,879
Speaker 1: is very important. I don't see a scenario where he's

498
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 1: ever an everyday player in the majors. I just the

499
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 1: hitting ability isn't there, the power isn't there, and there's

500
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:19,919
Speaker 1: no real reason to project that it ever will be.

501
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 1: He's gonna be all about speed and defense and hitting

502
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:27,120
Speaker 1: right handed pitching, so he's gonna be out of minor

503
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:31,120
Speaker 1: league options going into twenty twenty. It is yeah, very

504
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,199
Speaker 1: likely that he cracks the opening day roster somehow, and

505
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 1: I'm interested to see how he's used a nice complimentary player,

506
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:41,879
Speaker 1: but nobody that on his own is necessarily going to

507
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:46,360
Speaker 1: change the Marlins effectiveness all that much on his own.

508
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 1: And the fourth piece we're gonna revisit later this being

509
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:54,959
Speaker 1: the left handed pitching depth breakdown, is Daniel Castano, who

510
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 1: has spent a lot of this year at Double A Jacksonville.

511
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 1: Clearly the biggest wild card of all four of the

512
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 1: pieces that the Marlins got in return, the one who

513
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 1: hasn't seen any major league time and wouldn't necessarily bet

514
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 1: on being an impact player in the majors. It's just

515
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 1: nice to see that there's still something working with him

516
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 1: and that's coming off this kind of productive year and

517
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 1: that maybe there's something repeatable in there that Marlins can

518
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:26,159
Speaker 1: maximize moving forward. In review, Ozuna gave the Marlins some

519
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 1: great times. Who was inconsistent somewhat as a hitter during

520
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 1: his Marlins years, but the peaks were beautiful, and the

521
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 1: kind of peaks that we haven't seen the past couple

522
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 1: of years from anybody on the team. There's obviously some

523
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 1: sentimental feelings about him and the desire to pursue him

524
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 1: in free agency this coming year. We'll see how that goes.

525
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 1: It depends whether or not he gets a qualifying offer

526
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 1: that would certainly change the conversation regardless of a reunion.

527
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 1: The Marlins partoned with him at pretty much the perfect time.

528
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 1: Had they held on any longer, I feel that the

529
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 1: regression of a bat would have even reduced his trade

530
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 1: value even more so, they really maximized it at the time,

531
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 1: even though they didn't necessarily need to part with him.

532
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 1: He was paid what just over twenty one million dollars

533
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 1: by the Cardinals the past two years, a kind of

534
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 1: salary that was similar to Starlin Castro. It's a manageable

535
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: salary for any team, but the Marlins understood the bigger

536
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 1: picture and how they needed guys that were under control

537
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: for the long haul. That's exactly what they got. The

538
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 1: question is going to be how Sandy progresses from here

539
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 1: and whether he can continue being a reliable starting pitcher

540
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: or if he could take a step beyond that and

541
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 1: be a perennial all star pitching near the top of

542
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 1: the rotation. Just assuming that no Zuna reunion ain't happening here,

543
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 1: the Marlins should still be content with how they executed

544
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 1: this trade and what they're doing to develop the players

545
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 1: that they received in return. It's time to continue our

546
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 1: series of Ultimate Marlins depth charts. Position by position. We're

547
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 1: gonna look at the present, the near future, the distant future,

548
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 1: and the periphery of all the talent within the Marlins organization,

549
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: making projections about how exactly they fit in with this

550
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 1: organization and how it affects how the Marlins need to

551
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: go out and improve their organization this offseason and beyond.

552
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 1: We did the right handed pictures in the last episode,

553
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 1: so this is just the left handed pitchers left handed pictures.

554
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 1: I emphasize that because if there is a significant picture

555
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:36,959
Speaker 1: that the Marlins have that is not mentioned in this

556
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 1: next segment, it's because he probably doesn't throw with his

557
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 1: left hand. He's a right handed pitcher, I guess. Go

558
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 1: back to the previous episode. For all the righties. The

559
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 1: lefties are a smaller percentage of the population as you

560
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,560
Speaker 1: might imagine, just like in the general population where vast

561
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 1: majority right handed. Even in baseball, it's about what a

562
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 1: seventy thirty split righties and lefties. So this segment is

563
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 1: gonna be shorter than the right handers in the previous episode,

564
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 1: and that's why we were able to fit in some

565
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 1: different topics in this episode, Aside from the usual analysis,

566
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 1: we're gonna break it into the four categories. The MLB

567
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 1: active players who are on the roster right now, the

568
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 1: twenty twenty ETAs players that will be receiving their first

569
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 1: call up next year in all likelihood if they say

570
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 1: healthy and consistent. The next waves of talents beyond that

571
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,239
Speaker 1: not assured a twenty twenty call up, but perhaps at

572
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 1: the very end of the year or in the coming

573
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 1: years twenty twenty one and beyond. Then the miscellaneous guys

574
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 1: who don't fit in one of those above categories. All

575
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 1: that neatly alphabetical order for the MLB active pitchers, and

576
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 1: that means the first one up is weigh yin chen

577
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 1: a six point five to nine earned run average, five

578
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 1: point two three fields are independent pitching in sixty nine

579
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 1: and a third innings pitched last year. If you've been

580
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 1: a steady member of the Fish Stripes audience, I appreciate that,

581
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 1: and that means you already know my feelings about Chen.

582
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 1: I see no reason why he should pitch another regular

583
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 1: season game for the Marlins under contract for one more

584
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 1: guaranteed year in twenty twenty for twenty two million dollars.

585
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 1: As things presently stand, Chen is making close to half

586
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 1: of the twenty twenty projected Marlins payroll. Of course, they'll

587
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 1: need to make some additions in free agency or acquiring

588
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 1: veterans via trade. I hope they do that, and they

589
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 1: should not let Chen get in the way of that.

590
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: He was a mediocre starter for most of his run

591
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 1: with the Marlins. They tried putting in the bullpen this

592
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 1: past season. They didn't do him any favors by using

593
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 1: him sparingly in very low leverage situations, very irregular workload.

594
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 1: Especially late in the year. He sometimes went multiple weeks

595
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 1: between appearances. So I think it's on all sides, it

596
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 1: just is not a great arrangement right now. Moving forward,

597
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 1: he should get an opportunity to be a free agent,

598
00:32:56,800 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 1: sign a minor league deal with another needy organization, maybe

599
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 1: reinvent himself as a reliever. But even in the state

600
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 1: of the Marlins are in with their bullpen and all

601
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 1: the question marks, he is thoroughly expendable. Not someone that

602
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 1: fans view very fondly. Is not gonna sell you any

603
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 1: extra merchandise, at least not in the US. So it's yeah,

604
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 1: just an arrangement that was pretty ugly from the beginning

605
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:26,719
Speaker 1: on the baseball playing side. Nothing against him personally whatsoever,

606
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 1: including in this segment, just because he's under contract and

607
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 1: I'm not fully confident in the Marlins being able to

608
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 1: walk away from the money owed to him and just

609
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 1: accept it as a sunk cost, assuming hopefully they do,

610
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 1: Assuming they might not including him in this segment. Someone

611
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 1: that would fit in to the mop up role in

612
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 1: the Marlins bullpen if he is in fact retained heading

613
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: into the regular season. Adam Connelly very similar stats to Chen,

614
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 1: eerily similar six point five to three earned or on

615
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 1: averages season five point one to nine fielder independent pitching

616
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 1: in sixty and two thirds endings pitched. One of the

617
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 1: disappointments on this major league roster this past year. Despite

618
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 1: the low expectations for the roster overall, there were certain

619
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 1: individuals that we hoped would sustain their level of performance

620
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 1: or take a small step forward, and kindly took a

621
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:20,880
Speaker 1: big step back. It's hard to find a silver lining

622
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 1: other than the fact that he's still throwing hard average

623
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 1: about ninety six miles per hour on his fastball, very

624
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:30,280
Speaker 1: similar to twenty eighteen when he had some bright spots,

625
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 1: but the big difference this year, and we had a

626
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:36,320
Speaker 1: longer analysis on the website pointing this out, is the

627
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:40,840
Speaker 1: deterioration of his change up. For whatever reason, he was

628
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 1: not fooling hitters the same way this season as he

629
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 1: did the previous year in his first opportunity as a

630
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 1: consistent reliever. The key to that pitch, of course, is

631
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 1: making an unpredictable in regards to the fastball, imitating your

632
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,800
Speaker 1: delivery and the movement, well not the movement, the delivery

633
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 1: of the those pitches such that the hitter can't tell

634
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,719
Speaker 1: the difference until it's too late. But Conley's changeup was

635
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 1: simply not as good this year. Didn't move the same way,

636
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 1: and it was hit a lot harder. All of his

637
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,359
Speaker 1: pitches were hit pretty hard despite the velocity that he had.

638
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 1: It's very hard to find any bright spots in his performance.

639
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 1: Just consistently bad this year started him in high leverage

640
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 1: situations and from there he lost Don Mattingly's trust. Arbitration

641
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 1: eligible heading into twenty twenty, no sure thing that the

642
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 1: Marlins are going to tender him a contract, because he's

643
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:34,240
Speaker 1: going to be in line for well over a million dollars,

644
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: and if they were to, let's say, non tender him

645
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 1: and resign him, they could probably get him at a

646
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 1: lower guaranteed money. That's the nature of the business. He's

647
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,760
Speaker 1: worth a flyer, unlike Chen because of the raw stuff,

648
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:49,800
Speaker 1: because how recently in early twenty eighteen he looked to

649
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 1: be a competent reliever, so worth a flyer even if

650
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 1: they non tender him as someone they might want to

651
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 1: resign for the time being, though again he's under control

652
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 1: for this coming year via r arbitration. Heading into his

653
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 1: age thirty season, Harlan Garcia the best reliever on the

654
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 1: Marlins in twenty nineteen. He posted a three point two

655
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 1: ERA three point seven to seven fifth in fifty and

656
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:16,359
Speaker 1: two thirds innings pitched. It may seem like an eternity ago,

657
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,760
Speaker 1: but he actually was not on the opening day roster

658
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 1: for the Marlins. He still had a minor league option

659
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 1: and they used it coming off a very shaky twenty

660
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,759
Speaker 1: eighteen that had me concerned, especially of how hard he

661
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 1: was hit for the majority of the season, how uncomfortable

662
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,839
Speaker 1: he looked in a relief role. After they give him

663
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 1: that opportunity to start early on this time in twenty nineteen,

664
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 1: they fully reverted him back to relief work at a time,

665
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:43,880
Speaker 1: stretching him for multiple endings. But for the most partchas

666
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 1: you know, three outs, four outs, pretty conventional type of stuff.

667
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 1: He had a very long scoreless streak right in the

668
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 1: middle of the year that was a lot of fun

669
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:55,760
Speaker 1: to follow. Never going to be someone with a super

670
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:58,800
Speaker 1: high swing and mis rate or a strikeout rate overall.

671
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 1: That that includes this year as well, but he did

672
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 1: make a lot of positive strides in that area. That

673
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 1: was the biggest weakness last year, so that he simply

674
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,839
Speaker 1: could not get the ball by hitters couldn't finish him off,

675
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:11,359
Speaker 1: and eventually they got a pitch to hit. This year,

676
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 1: he was more efficient with his pitches, took a big

677
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 1: improvement with his changeup. Where Connolly moved backwards, Harlan was

678
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 1: just the opposite. It was one of the better change

679
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 1: ups in all of baseball this year. That's a pitch

680
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 1: that the Marlins emphasize in teaching their young pitchers, and

681
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 1: Harlan has really taken to that well. So the peripherals

682
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 1: pretty closely back up the era, although not perfectly. He

683
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 1: had some success against both righty's and lefties, and that's

684
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 1: a trend that you'll be noticing. Is that not all

685
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 1: that significant platoon splits from most of these left handers.

686
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:49,800
Speaker 1: The reality is that the rules are changing in baseball,

687
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 1: beginning at the major league level in twenty twenty, where

688
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 1: relievers all pitchers are expected to face at least three

689
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 1: batters or finish an ending the days of alogie a

690
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 1: lefty one out guy. Those are going to disappear, and

691
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: so you'll need lefties that can get out all types

692
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 1: of opponents. Harlan looks to be that type of guy.

693
00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 1: He's still affordable for another few years, controllable via arbitration

694
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one and beyond. A nice bounce back

695
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 1: from him, very reassuring that there's at least one lefty

696
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 1: in this bullpen that the Marlins can trust. Heading into

697
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 1: the new year, Brian Moran brings a big contrast in styles.

698
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,439
Speaker 1: He put up a four point two six ERA four

699
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 1: point zoo fIF in six and a third innings pitch

700
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:38,959
Speaker 1: as a September call up, very low arm angle, even

701
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 1: lower than Conley, almost side arm, doesn't rely on velocity whatsoever.

702
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 1: I'm not sure he threw a single pitch over ninety

703
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:49,240
Speaker 1: miles per hour with the Marlins, and that slow slider

704
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 1: gets into the low seventies, so the speed differential is

705
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 1: there as long as he's able to repeat his mechanics

706
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 1: Throughout most of the year, he was with Triple A

707
00:38:57,680 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 1: New Orleans and did a good job there when you

708
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 1: consider was an offensive friendly environment. Run scoring spiked all

709
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 1: across the Pacific Coast League with the new baseball that

710
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:08,560
Speaker 1: they were using, and so for him to have an

711
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:14,240
Speaker 1: ERA in the threes at that level is practically being dominant.

712
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:16,919
Speaker 1: He pitched in a lot of high leverage situations down there,

713
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 1: not quite his money up in the big leagues. His

714
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 1: signature moment, obviously his major league debut coming against his brother,

715
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 1: his younger brother, Colin Moran, and he struck him out

716
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 1: on a full count. So that's one of the top

717
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 1: moments of the entire Marlin season, I think, because of

718
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 1: all the work that Brian Moran puts to get to

719
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 1: that point thirty one years old, and he had bounced

720
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: around a bunch of different organizations before finally getting a

721
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 1: call up with the Marlins. If they keep him all

722
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:48,240
Speaker 1: the forty man roster, he's controllable for plenty of years.

723
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 1: To come, just as any rookie player would be. The

724
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,720
Speaker 1: track record at the major league level is obviously very limited.

725
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 1: The fact that he is a different look from the

726
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 1: conventional reliever of something that Marlins should put to value on.

727
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,279
Speaker 1: I imagine he's going to stick with them throughout the

728
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:06,319
Speaker 1: off season and get an invite to spring training in

729
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 1: order to try to better establish himself as a legitimate

730
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:13,840
Speaker 1: weapon with that unique arm angle and the stuff that

731
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:18,279
Speaker 1: he has. Just a good, feel good story that the

732
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 1: Marlins have had recent history has had not great results

733
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:26,760
Speaker 1: from these field good stories over an expanded sample size.

734
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 1: Hopefully Moran will be an exception to that. From Venezuela.

735
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 1: Hosei Quijada, who was a rookie this past year for

736
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 1: the Marlins, put up a five point seven to six ERA,

737
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 1: a seven point six six fielder independent pitching in twenty

738
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:45,759
Speaker 1: nine and two thirds innings, called up, sent down, called up,

739
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:50,279
Speaker 1: sent down several times during the season. Overall of just

740
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 1: he was bad and the issue was simply throwing strikes

741
00:40:55,160 --> 00:41:00,359
Speaker 1: with his fastball fastball commands missing constantly up in the zone.

742
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 1: Almost a batter per inning this year was either walked

743
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 1: or hit by a pitch from Kihata. I mean, it's

744
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 1: one thing if your whip total base runners allowed is

745
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:15,240
Speaker 1: one per inning, but to essentially give away base runners

746
00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 1: one per inning throughout what was a partial season in

747
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 1: the big leagues, it was really concerning. He had taken

748
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 1: a big step forward in twenty eighteen across a few

749
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 1: different levels, and that gave reason for optimism, but in

750
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:29,840
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, even at Triple A, struggling with his command

751
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 1: as well. A young guy, and the velocity is pretty

752
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:37,880
Speaker 1: much above average, especially for a left hander. If you

753
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:40,719
Speaker 1: hit ninety five from the left side, that's not something

754
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 1: you see very often. The Marlins can be somewhat patient

755
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:47,719
Speaker 1: with him. He does have another minor league option to go.

756
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 1: They can try to DFA him or place one, get

757
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 1: him through waivers and outride him off the forty man roster.

758
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:57,759
Speaker 1: I think, based on why he's shown this year, there's

759
00:41:57,760 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 1: not gonna be a whole lot of interest in it.

760
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:01,759
Speaker 1: But if they don't want to take the risk, I

761
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 1: can also understand keeping him on the forty men. And

762
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 1: maybe he showed up in spring training and he's made

763
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:11,319
Speaker 1: some mechanical adjustments. You like the arm, and he is

764
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 1: a fun spectacle to watch, he's really animated on the mound.

765
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 1: The results, though, were simply unacceptable from Kihata this year

766
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: and now the complicated case of Caleb Smith a four

767
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 1: point five to two ERA, five point one point one

768
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 1: fip in one hundred and fifty three and a third

769
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,840
Speaker 1: innings pitched at the major league level. That there was

770
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 1: also a couple of rehabits arts with a Jacksonville which

771
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 1: pushes the ennings over one sixty, which was the highest

772
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:43,600
Speaker 1: total that he's ever had as a professional pitcher, which

773
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:45,399
Speaker 1: is saying something for a guy that's now twenty eight

774
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 1: He's been in pro ball for a while, and this

775
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:50,760
Speaker 1: was his heaviest workload. He was coming off of surgery

776
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:54,040
Speaker 1: on his left lad He suffered that injury in the

777
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 1: middle of twenty eighteen, just as things were going really

778
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 1: well for him. Is a big step back. It was

779
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 1: a pretty severe tear that required that surgery, and yet

780
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 1: when he showed up this year at the beginning, his

781
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:08,719
Speaker 1: velocity was up based on what had previously been all

782
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:12,840
Speaker 1: his pitches working well together, a fastball, slider, and the changeup.

783
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:17,359
Speaker 1: That's why for the month of April it was sensational.

784
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:20,279
Speaker 1: It was one of the better single months from any

785
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 1: starting pitcher in Marlin's history. That's not an exaggeration. He

786
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 1: was striking out at one point over one third of

787
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 1: every batter faced, which is right on parv with the

788
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:33,360
Speaker 1: very best pictures in the major leagues. Wasn't able to

789
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 1: keep that up, though he had a kiss of hip

790
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 1: inflammation in late May early June that put him on

791
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,240
Speaker 1: the injured list. They were slow and bringing him back.

792
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:44,800
Speaker 1: When he did come back, the velocity wasn't quite the same.

793
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 1: But more importantly, the one trend that bothered me, and

794
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:52,320
Speaker 1: I'm sure he had a decent reason for it, it wasn't

795
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:55,600
Speaker 1: like purely coincidence, is that he shied away from using

796
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:58,480
Speaker 1: his change up. To be a starting pitcher with only

797
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 1: three pitches is so unusual in the majors these days.

798
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:06,400
Speaker 1: And if you're gonna seldom use one of those pitches

799
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 1: and not gonna use it in any meaningful counts the

800
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 1: way that Caleb did in much of August and in September,

801
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 1: then you're really putting yourself in a tough position. So

802
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:19,759
Speaker 1: I'm not entirely sure why he did that. The results

803
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:24,200
Speaker 1: were lousy for that stretch of time. He served up

804
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:26,080
Speaker 1: home runs at an even higher rate. That was a

805
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 1: concern with him regardless is that he's a very flyball

806
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 1: heavy pitcher, and more of those fly balls went over

807
00:44:32,640 --> 00:44:35,320
Speaker 1: the fence late in the season as he was relying

808
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:39,279
Speaker 1: basically on two pitches. This season was never gonna be

809
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:42,359
Speaker 1: all that much about the results for Caleb, even as

810
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:45,319
Speaker 1: his name popped up as a trade candidate in front

811
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 1: of the deadline. That was never going to be a

812
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:51,279
Speaker 1: likely scenario. The bigger test will be how he does

813
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:54,239
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty when he's presumably healthy. He's coming off

814
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:56,360
Speaker 1: this year where he pushed his limits one of the

815
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:59,720
Speaker 1: higher strikeout totals by any left hander in Marlin's history

816
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:04,120
Speaker 1: for single season, right behind Al Lighter, and there's maybe

817
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:06,279
Speaker 1: one more right up there with Dontrell Willis in the

818
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 1: best years that he had in terms of punching guys out.

819
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 1: There's interesting potential here with Caleb on the older side

820
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,880
Speaker 1: compared to other inexperienced pitchers, but also very inexpensive for

821
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:20,799
Speaker 1: the Marlins, especially coming into the year, There's no doubt

822
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 1: that he's going to be in the rotation given opportunity

823
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:26,400
Speaker 1: to show that he can sustain what he did early

824
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:29,279
Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen, because that was one of the more

825
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:37,480
Speaker 1: exciting developments of anybody on the roster. This category of

826
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 1: twenty twenty ETAs guys with a twenty twenty estimated time

827
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:43,840
Speaker 1: of arrival to get a call up for the first

828
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,279
Speaker 1: time this coming season is going to be a very

829
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 1: quick one. Most of the lefties of the Marlins we

830
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:51,839
Speaker 1: be leaning on and building arounds are further away than

831
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:55,240
Speaker 1: this coming season, or they're already on the major league roster,

832
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 1: or they're not even in the organization at all right now.

833
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 1: So we're just going to look at two relievers here

834
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 1: who I expect to see up at some point this

835
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 1: coming season. Dylan Lee put up a two point nine

836
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:13,280
Speaker 1: to one er, four point twenty four fielder independent pitching

837
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 1: in fifty eight and two thirds endings. Pitched with Double

838
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 1: A Jacksonville and Triple A New Orleans. He's been in

839
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 1: the organization for a while now, drafted way back in

840
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, so that's the old regime that picked him

841
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:31,759
Speaker 1: out of Fresno, and he was originally thought of as

842
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:35,239
Speaker 1: a starting pitching prospect. The stuff didn't play up quite

843
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:38,400
Speaker 1: as they hoped, and the first experimentation with that was

844
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:41,080
Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen as a reliever, and it was a

845
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:44,880
Speaker 1: smashing success with Jupiter and with Jacksonville. He had stretches

846
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 1: of excellence along scoreless streak. Right in the middle of

847
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:52,080
Speaker 1: the year. He was closing games for Jacksonville, a lefty

848
00:46:52,160 --> 00:46:57,319
Speaker 1: that has pretty good velocity for a left hander low

849
00:46:57,400 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 1: nineties to ninety four ninety five on the good days,

850
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:04,600
Speaker 1: simplifying it with two pitches really after his change up

851
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 1: didn't quite develop the way that they had hoped for.

852
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 1: And the results are there across several different levels, and

853
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:14,960
Speaker 1: of course this year getting a higher challenge cracking through

854
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 1: to Triple A and the disparity between his era and

855
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 1: then his peripherals. Some of that has to do with

856
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:23,520
Speaker 1: more balls going out of the yard at Triple A

857
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 1: once he got called up there. He's going to be

858
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 1: twenty six next year. He needs to be protect He

859
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 1: doesn't need to be protected on the forty man roster,

860
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 1: but he will be eligible for the Rule five drafts.

861
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:40,240
Speaker 1: So I am curious as to whether he definitely makes

862
00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:43,319
Speaker 1: it through. I expect him to, though, as someone that

863
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:48,920
Speaker 1: doesn't have exceptional tools and like any special particular pedigree,

864
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 1: the Marlins are going to take their chances and he's

865
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:53,239
Speaker 1: probably gonna stick around, but definitely get an invite to

866
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 1: spring training, and depending on the other off season moves,

867
00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:59,399
Speaker 1: he's someone that could sneak onto that opening day roster

868
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,280
Speaker 1: and come out of camp as a trusted lefty because

869
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 1: we ran through the options that are already at the

870
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:07,480
Speaker 1: major league level, and those guys they have big question

871
00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 1: marks with their stuff or their consistency, and Dylan Lee

872
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:15,800
Speaker 1: could be a big beneficiary of that. And another reliever,

873
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:20,960
Speaker 1: Alex Vessia one point seven to five ERA, one point

874
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 1: nine to nine FIP and that's in sixty six and

875
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:27,880
Speaker 1: two thirds endings, pitched across one to three different levels.

876
00:48:27,880 --> 00:48:31,240
Speaker 1: He started in Low A, Clinton just drafted in twenty eighteen.

877
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 1: Within barely one calendar year of being in pro ball,

878
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:40,160
Speaker 1: he was already at Double A, pitching in important games,

879
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 1: just sensational, striking out one hundred batters as a strictly

880
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 1: as a reliever in the minor leagues, and that shortened

881
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:50,799
Speaker 1: season is extraordinary and they didn't want to end his

882
00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 1: season there. Vessia is still pitching as we speak in

883
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:56,440
Speaker 1: the Arizona Fall League and he has not allowed a

884
00:48:56,560 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 1: run where now the Arizona Fall League is ending now

885
00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:03,200
Speaker 1: next week. I'm gonna be recapping that somewhat here on

886
00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:06,319
Speaker 1: the pod and on the website. And Vessia is one

887
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:08,359
Speaker 1: of the bright spots because he was a Fall Star

888
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 1: selection as one of the great players before their midway point,

889
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:15,160
Speaker 1: and he has continued to pitch well since the Fall

890
00:49:15,200 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 1: Star's game. Again, the velocity is solid, but nothing exceptional,

891
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:23,760
Speaker 1: I believe here in the Fall League is topped out

892
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:26,879
Speaker 1: around ninety five and mostly been sitting in the low

893
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 1: nineties with the heater. The key for him is that

894
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 1: spin rate on that pitch and he's willing to to

895
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:35,759
Speaker 1: throw it up in the zone. You've seen this with

896
00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 1: other examples. Josh Hater is the peak of it, where

897
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 1: if you have a high spin rate and you throw

898
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 1: your fastball up in the zone, batters have a hard

899
00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 1: time even just getting their bat to that ball because

900
00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 1: of the way it moves and the perception of where

901
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 1: the pitch is going to go and how often they

902
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:56,440
Speaker 1: wind up being wrong. So Vessia has that unusual fastball

903
00:49:56,719 --> 00:50:00,399
Speaker 1: shape to it and movement that is able to get

904
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 1: a lot of swings and misses. Aside from the er,

905
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 1: you see how the peripherals totally backed that up. He

906
00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:08,880
Speaker 1: kept the ball in the ball bark, he did not

907
00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:13,239
Speaker 1: allow free passes. He was one of the bottom line

908
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 1: best relievers in all of minor league baseball. That's why

909
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:19,279
Speaker 1: he's nominated for one of the Milby Awards for best

910
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 1: Reliever that you can vote on on the Minor League

911
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:25,640
Speaker 1: Baseball website, and I encourage you to do that. He's close.

912
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 1: Even as a guy that was just drafted in the

913
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 1: very late rounds of twenty eighteen, I expect to see

914
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:33,600
Speaker 1: him before the end of the year. The reason being

915
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:36,440
Speaker 1: that he's just been so consistently good at all these

916
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:39,719
Speaker 1: levels of competition, and we know how needy the Marlins

917
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:45,920
Speaker 1: are for relievers that can get Alex consistently. He is

918
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:49,200
Speaker 1: someone that looks like a key contributor for the Marlins

919
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 1: in the long term and a great pickup to get

920
00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:58,279
Speaker 1: him as late as they did in the draft. The

921
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 1: next waves of Marlins left and looking at basically twenty

922
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 1: twenty one and beyond, begins with Julio Freos, a two

923
00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 1: point eighty three ERA two point six to six fielder,

924
00:51:09,719 --> 00:51:13,200
Speaker 1: independent pitching in his seventy innings with the short season

925
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:17,680
Speaker 1: a Batavia Muckdogs. And what sticks out even prior to

926
00:51:17,719 --> 00:51:20,040
Speaker 1: this year is how good he was at keeping the

927
00:51:20,040 --> 00:51:24,760
Speaker 1: ball in the ballpark. Even in twenty nineteen seventy innings

928
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 1: all in Batavia and allowed just one home run, and

929
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:31,680
Speaker 1: all that time, even with the reputation that that league

930
00:51:31,719 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 1: has the New York Penn League for suppressing offense, that's incredible.

931
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:39,880
Speaker 1: And a guy that despite now being in the organization

932
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 1: for now parts of five seasons, this was just his

933
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:47,280
Speaker 1: age twenty one season, a lot of room still ahead

934
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 1: of him to go. He was one of seven Marlins

935
00:51:50,680 --> 00:51:53,560
Speaker 1: prospects in that league that were picked as New York

936
00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:56,360
Speaker 1: Penn League All Stars. That was a great team that

937
00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:59,240
Speaker 1: they put together, and he was probably the most valuable

938
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 1: pitcher that they had as a guy that was giving

939
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:04,640
Speaker 1: them all those endings and was consistently very good. It

940
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:07,720
Speaker 1: was consistent. That's probably the number one word that sticks

941
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:10,640
Speaker 1: out with free Us. This was his first taste of

942
00:52:10,719 --> 00:52:14,880
Speaker 1: pitching above the rookie levels. Previously just the Dominican Summer

943
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:18,640
Speaker 1: League in the Gulf Coast League. I don't have all

944
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 1: the specifics on his stuff, just that this was a

945
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:26,480
Speaker 1: success for him to go against competition that was about

946
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:29,120
Speaker 1: his age and in some cases older than he was,

947
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:34,799
Speaker 1: and he acquainted himself very well someone that give him

948
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 1: the work that he put in, you'd expect to see

949
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:40,200
Speaker 1: spend most of the next year in Loway, Clinton and

950
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:42,920
Speaker 1: get stretched out over full season ball. So that's when

951
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 1: we'll have a better idea of what exactly his ceiling

952
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:49,600
Speaker 1: looks like. A prospect of a similar age that we

953
00:52:49,640 --> 00:52:53,600
Speaker 1: already know very very well is Braxton Garrett three point

954
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:57,400
Speaker 1: five to four ERA three point seventy nine fit in

955
00:52:57,440 --> 00:53:00,040
Speaker 1: one hundred and six and two thirds ending pitched a

956
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:04,000
Speaker 1: vast majority of that with high Jooper finished up with

957
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:06,080
Speaker 1: a Jacksonville at the end of the year, and that

958
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 1: bloated the ERA a little bit. The main takeaway is

959
00:53:09,680 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 1: that this was a smashing success for someone in his

960
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 1: first season coming off of Tommy John surgery. Set out

961
00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 1: all of twenty eighteen, so got even more rests than

962
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:21,520
Speaker 1: usual for a Tommy John survivor more than a year

963
00:53:21,520 --> 00:53:24,880
Speaker 1: and a half in between playing formal games. During the

964
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:29,240
Speaker 1: regular season, his stuff fully returned to its pre surgery level,

965
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:32,799
Speaker 1: fastball velocity getting up into the mid nineties in that

966
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:36,120
Speaker 1: plus plus swinging miss curveball that has such a big

967
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:38,279
Speaker 1: drop to it, and that he's able to throw for

968
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:40,920
Speaker 1: a strike when he needs to as well. Those two

969
00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 1: weapons alone make him a very exciting pitching prospect no

970
00:53:44,120 --> 00:53:46,560
Speaker 1: matter what his future role is. If you look at

971
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:50,200
Speaker 1: his frame and you look at the control that he's

972
00:53:50,239 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 1: able to have with these pitches, it gives you a

973
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:55,800
Speaker 1: lot of reassurance that he's going to be a rotation

974
00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:59,000
Speaker 1: piece long term, so he could build up the endings

975
00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:02,240
Speaker 1: from here. This was a good start. If he expands

976
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:04,359
Speaker 1: even more than that, then by the time we get

977
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:06,560
Speaker 1: to twenty twenty one, he could already be a full

978
00:54:06,600 --> 00:54:10,600
Speaker 1: fledged major league starting pitcher. The ceiling that he has

979
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:13,799
Speaker 1: Brax and Garrett is maybe the highest out of any

980
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:16,279
Speaker 1: left hander that we've discussed or will discuss in the

981
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:19,719
Speaker 1: entire Marlins farm system. He could be an all Star

982
00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:22,239
Speaker 1: caliber starting pitcher in the major leagues if all goes

983
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:25,759
Speaker 1: right and he stays durable from this point forward. Yeah,

984
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 1: the Tommy john Is always gives you a scare, but

985
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:30,560
Speaker 1: more and more we see these guys come back and

986
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:33,680
Speaker 1: be exactly who we thought they would be. The cherry

987
00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:36,759
Speaker 1: on top of his year was being a ping pong

988
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:40,520
Speaker 1: tournament champion for the Marlins in spring training when they

989
00:54:40,520 --> 00:54:43,399
Speaker 1: had a big tournament involving just about everyone who wanted

990
00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:47,399
Speaker 1: to participate. He is a very talented athlete that has

991
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:49,799
Speaker 1: a lot going for him. The good question is going

992
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:53,160
Speaker 1: to be the durability, and we'll see exactly what his

993
00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 1: results look like as he spends more time in Double

994
00:54:55,480 --> 00:54:58,960
Speaker 1: A in twenty twenty. I don't think they're gonna rush

995
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:02,759
Speaker 1: him up, especially considering what his ultimate potential is. There's

996
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:04,720
Speaker 1: no hurry to put him on the forty man roster

997
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:07,880
Speaker 1: this coming year. That decision will be another year away.

998
00:55:08,560 --> 00:55:12,360
Speaker 1: It wouldn't be it wouldn't be impossible from the debut

999
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:15,719
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, But I think the Marlins are gonna

1000
00:55:15,719 --> 00:55:18,400
Speaker 1: play it safe. They have something special on their hands.

1001
00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:25,439
Speaker 1: Next up Luis Palacios one point one two eire. Yeah,

1002
00:55:25,560 --> 00:55:29,800
Speaker 1: let me say that again. One point one two earned

1003
00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:33,279
Speaker 1: run average for the season, a two point two to

1004
00:55:33,320 --> 00:55:38,720
Speaker 1: two fielder independent pitching in forty and a third innings pitched. Wow.

1005
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:42,240
Speaker 1: All that work was with the Gulf Coast League Marlins.

1006
00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:44,880
Speaker 1: It was his first taste of pitching in the US

1007
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:47,840
Speaker 1: after he had put himself on the map of the

1008
00:55:47,840 --> 00:55:51,760
Speaker 1: previous year by dominating the Dominican Summer League. Very similar

1009
00:55:51,880 --> 00:55:55,000
Speaker 1: numbers with the DSL, which, even though we didn't have

1010
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:57,279
Speaker 1: the video on him or much of the details of

1011
00:55:57,280 --> 00:56:00,600
Speaker 1: the fact that he was performing at that life as

1012
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:03,319
Speaker 1: a teenager, really put him on the radar, and he

1013
00:56:03,440 --> 00:56:06,799
Speaker 1: fully backed that up in the GCL. I wanted to

1014
00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:09,640
Speaker 1: see him very desperately at a higher level of competition

1015
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:12,839
Speaker 1: at the end of the year, just out of curiosity,

1016
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:16,160
Speaker 1: understanding that they're bringing him along slowly and he's still

1017
00:56:16,200 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 1: so young, just turned nineteen in July. He was someone

1018
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:22,120
Speaker 1: that was signed with the hope of projectability and that

1019
00:56:22,200 --> 00:56:25,480
Speaker 1: he could add stuff as it went along. As a

1020
00:56:25,600 --> 00:56:28,960
Speaker 1: sixteen year old when he did sign, the velocity was

1021
00:56:29,120 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 1: in the mid eighties and at this point maybe in

1022
00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:35,880
Speaker 1: the upper eighties, but not much beyond that in games,

1023
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:40,480
Speaker 1: and he's subsisting so far on a fastball and changeup

1024
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:43,879
Speaker 1: on deceiving the batters. Between those two pitches, he also

1025
00:56:43,920 --> 00:56:47,279
Speaker 1: has a very big loop and curveball, though nothing that

1026
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:51,399
Speaker 1: really shines a light to what Braxton Garrett does. It's

1027
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:53,600
Speaker 1: more of a show me pitch, something to keep you

1028
00:56:53,640 --> 00:56:56,239
Speaker 1: off balance. I did see him get some strikeouts with

1029
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:59,719
Speaker 1: that over the past two years. Still something that needs

1030
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 1: to be sharpened up in order to be a true

1031
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:05,920
Speaker 1: outgetter and put away pitch. For him. Right now, it's

1032
00:57:05,960 --> 00:57:09,239
Speaker 1: all about the command. His strikeouts to walk ratio is

1033
00:57:09,320 --> 00:57:11,480
Speaker 1: off the charts. That was both last year and then

1034
00:57:11,480 --> 00:57:14,720
Speaker 1: he backed it up this year with long stretches spanning

1035
00:57:14,800 --> 00:57:19,320
Speaker 1: weeks between issuing a single walk. I understand the skepticism

1036
00:57:19,720 --> 00:57:23,280
Speaker 1: for the time being. I don't think anybody really has

1037
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:27,040
Speaker 1: him rated as a top thirty Marlins prospect. Next time

1038
00:57:27,040 --> 00:57:30,360
Speaker 1: that we reranked the Marlins prospects on fish stripes, he'll

1039
00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 1: get some serious consideration. But the limitations in the raw

1040
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 1: stuff must be noted. It's why we can't always just

1041
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:40,360
Speaker 1: power rank these guys based on the performance in the

1042
00:57:40,360 --> 00:57:43,800
Speaker 1: minor leagues. It's not always that simple. Not every skill

1043
00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:47,440
Speaker 1: translated the same way as you move up the chain. Nonetheless,

1044
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:50,880
Speaker 1: his performance could not have been any better This year

1045
00:57:52,040 --> 00:57:55,680
Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, Marlin's first round draft pick, Trevor Rodgers had

1046
00:57:55,720 --> 00:57:58,080
Speaker 1: a heck of a season two point nine to zero

1047
00:57:58,520 --> 00:58:02,000
Speaker 1: er two point nine four fielder independent pitching in one

1048
00:58:02,080 --> 00:58:05,320
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty six and a third innings pitched. It

1049
00:58:05,360 --> 00:58:07,880
Speaker 1: was one of the heavier workloads that any Marlins prospect

1050
00:58:07,920 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 1: had this season, and as results, he led all Marlins

1051
00:58:12,120 --> 00:58:15,400
Speaker 1: minor leaguers in strikeouts this year. Most of that work

1052
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:19,040
Speaker 1: was with the High A Jupiter Hammerheads, where he was

1053
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:21,040
Speaker 1: a Florida State League All Star, one of the better

1054
00:58:21,040 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 1: pitchers in the entire league, and then he got that

1055
00:58:23,320 --> 00:58:27,400
Speaker 1: late season promotion to Jacksonville after I publicly campaigned for

1056
00:58:27,480 --> 00:58:30,560
Speaker 1: him to get a promotion. Once he did, the performance

1057
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 1: held steady. He did very well facing much older competition

1058
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:37,080
Speaker 1: at Double A when he was just twenty one years old.

1059
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:40,880
Speaker 1: This was his first full pro regular season where he

1060
00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:44,040
Speaker 1: pitched all the way from April through early September. So

1061
00:58:44,040 --> 00:58:46,960
Speaker 1: he really built up to innings that he had previously

1062
00:58:47,040 --> 00:58:50,400
Speaker 1: endured and sets them up really well to take off

1063
00:58:50,480 --> 00:58:54,320
Speaker 1: next year. And so I can understand why there's some

1064
00:58:54,920 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 1: expectation that he could be called up by the end

1065
00:58:57,560 --> 00:58:59,480
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty, just because he's going to be all

1066
00:58:59,520 --> 00:59:03,280
Speaker 1: stretched out. He has a very long frame listed that

1067
00:59:03,400 --> 00:59:06,400
Speaker 1: six foot six, the tallest pitcher that we've mentioned in

1068
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:09,440
Speaker 1: this entire episode. He hasn't fully filled out that frame,

1069
00:59:09,800 --> 00:59:11,479
Speaker 1: and I'm not sure he's going to need to because

1070
00:59:11,520 --> 00:59:15,000
Speaker 1: the velosity is already above average and the command of

1071
00:59:15,080 --> 00:59:18,880
Speaker 1: his fastball is key that allows him to pile up

1072
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:21,640
Speaker 1: those strikeouts is that he's putting the fastball exactly where

1073
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:24,800
Speaker 1: he wants to and not necessarily where the hitter wants to.

1074
00:59:25,200 --> 00:59:28,560
Speaker 1: Getting aheading counts gives him the freedom to throw those

1075
00:59:28,600 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 1: secondary pitches even if none of them really stick out.

1076
00:59:31,440 --> 00:59:34,520
Speaker 1: Between the slider and the changeup and the curveball as

1077
00:59:34,560 --> 00:59:37,640
Speaker 1: a being a plus pitch, the counts that he's able

1078
00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:40,120
Speaker 1: to get for himself because of throwing strikes early on.

1079
00:59:40,360 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 1: It opens up such a big world of possibilities for him,

1080
00:59:44,960 --> 00:59:47,520
Speaker 1: at the very least, like his chances of being a

1081
00:59:47,520 --> 00:59:50,520
Speaker 1: future middle of the rotation starting pitcher. We're going to

1082
00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:52,640
Speaker 1: learn a whole lot based on what he does in

1083
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:55,360
Speaker 1: double A once we get a larger sample size of it.

1084
00:59:56,400 --> 01:00:00,440
Speaker 1: And now, friend of the podcast will Stewart point four

1085
01:00:00,440 --> 01:00:03,360
Speaker 1: to three era, which is quite a bit higher than

1086
01:00:03,400 --> 01:00:05,400
Speaker 1: you'd like to see a four point four to three

1087
01:00:05,520 --> 01:00:07,720
Speaker 1: fifth in one hundred and twenty nine and the third

1088
01:00:07,800 --> 01:00:11,120
Speaker 1: NX pitched, he had a big regression from what the

1089
01:00:11,160 --> 01:00:13,680
Speaker 1: Marlins thought they were getting. Remember he was part of

1090
01:00:13,680 --> 01:00:17,520
Speaker 1: the JT Real Muto trade package, a clear third piece

1091
01:00:17,680 --> 01:00:21,720
Speaker 1: behind six Do Sanchez in Jorge al Farro in that deal.

1092
01:00:22,040 --> 01:00:24,600
Speaker 1: He was coming off a very good twenty eighteen season

1093
01:00:24,680 --> 01:00:28,240
Speaker 1: at the low A level and it didn't work quite

1094
01:00:28,240 --> 01:00:29,960
Speaker 1: as well for him when he moved up to Jupiter

1095
01:00:30,040 --> 01:00:32,560
Speaker 1: this year. Just someone that allowed a lot of hard

1096
01:00:32,600 --> 01:00:35,800
Speaker 1: contact and also was plagued by some bad luck. The

1097
01:00:35,840 --> 01:00:39,680
Speaker 1: fielding at Jupiter was poor this year, although it wasn't

1098
01:00:39,680 --> 01:00:43,360
Speaker 1: a big excuse for Trevor Rodgers or Braxon Garrett. Both

1099
01:00:43,360 --> 01:00:45,520
Speaker 1: of them spent most of the year at the Jupiter

1100
01:00:45,600 --> 01:00:49,640
Speaker 1: level and had success. Stuart, unlike them, doesn't quite the

1101
01:00:49,680 --> 01:00:54,480
Speaker 1: same fastball velocity below average stuff in terms of, you know,

1102
01:00:54,520 --> 01:00:58,000
Speaker 1: the raw movement on it, and that forces him to

1103
01:00:58,120 --> 01:01:01,320
Speaker 1: be more precise with this location and more creative with

1104
01:01:01,360 --> 01:01:04,520
Speaker 1: how he sequences his pitches. His changeup is a bit

1105
01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:06,720
Speaker 1: big asset for him, and when he was at his

1106
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 1: best this year, that changeup was key. He had a

1107
01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:12,480
Speaker 1: couple outings where he nearly threw no hitters, one of

1108
01:01:12,520 --> 01:01:14,520
Speaker 1: them very early in the year, the other one in

1109
01:01:14,560 --> 01:01:17,120
Speaker 1: the second half of the season. In between, there were

1110
01:01:17,120 --> 01:01:19,200
Speaker 1: a lot of rough times where he allowed crooked numbers.

1111
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:21,560
Speaker 1: Early in the game first time through the order. That

1112
01:01:21,600 --> 01:01:23,720
Speaker 1: made you scratch your head as to why that was

1113
01:01:23,760 --> 01:01:26,640
Speaker 1: happening and what was off with him. Yeah, his margin

1114
01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:29,320
Speaker 1: of error is thinner than most of these prospects because

1115
01:01:29,640 --> 01:01:33,080
Speaker 1: of the lack of velocity and some questions about the

1116
01:01:33,160 --> 01:01:37,120
Speaker 1: quality of his breaking balls. And the one particular trend

1117
01:01:37,120 --> 01:01:39,800
Speaker 1: that sticks out is how high his ground ball rate

1118
01:01:39,960 --> 01:01:43,080
Speaker 1: was when he was successful with the Phillies. Sixty four

1119
01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:46,720
Speaker 1: percent ground ball rate between twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen,

1120
01:01:47,160 --> 01:01:49,720
Speaker 1: one of the very highest in all of minor league

1121
01:01:49,720 --> 01:01:52,640
Speaker 1: baseball at any level, and that came down a lot

1122
01:01:53,000 --> 01:01:56,000
Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen, where it was in the low fifties,

1123
01:01:56,160 --> 01:01:58,760
Speaker 1: allowing more balls that line drives are in the air,

1124
01:01:59,080 --> 01:02:02,040
Speaker 1: and when you do that and they find grass or

1125
01:02:02,040 --> 01:02:04,400
Speaker 1: they go over the wall, it creates a lot more damage.

1126
01:02:04,560 --> 01:02:07,200
Speaker 1: So it's pretty simple. What's not quite as simple as

1127
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:10,680
Speaker 1: understanding what the differences were for him, whether his approach

1128
01:02:10,760 --> 01:02:13,120
Speaker 1: changed it all or it was simply a matter of

1129
01:02:13,240 --> 01:02:16,480
Speaker 1: higher quality hitters that were able to square up his stuff.

1130
01:02:17,000 --> 01:02:19,360
Speaker 1: He will be eligible for the Rule five draft this

1131
01:02:19,400 --> 01:02:22,240
Speaker 1: coming year and is not currently on the forty man roster,

1132
01:02:22,280 --> 01:02:24,840
Speaker 1: so that'll be an interesting decision for the Marlins to make.

1133
01:02:25,280 --> 01:02:27,920
Speaker 1: He's only twenty two years old, and when you're facing

1134
01:02:27,960 --> 01:02:32,160
Speaker 1: older competition and on his best days being successful. Knowing

1135
01:02:32,160 --> 01:02:35,439
Speaker 1: that he can throw strikes with decent consistency, I would

1136
01:02:35,480 --> 01:02:39,040
Speaker 1: imagine that the Marlins protect him for the time being.

1137
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:43,400
Speaker 1: Focus on the fact that Will Stewart's fielder independent numbers

1138
01:02:43,440 --> 01:02:47,120
Speaker 1: were adequate, noted that it's a picture friendly league that

1139
01:02:47,400 --> 01:02:49,880
Speaker 1: he spent the time competing in. There's still a lot

1140
01:02:49,880 --> 01:02:54,840
Speaker 1: of hope for him to ride in the ship moving forward.

1141
01:02:56,920 --> 01:03:00,920
Speaker 1: And here are my miscellaneous left handers in the Marl organization,

1142
01:03:01,440 --> 01:03:04,320
Speaker 1: beginning with Daniel Costano. He put up a three point

1143
01:03:04,400 --> 01:03:08,280
Speaker 1: four to eight er two point sixty seven fielder independent

1144
01:03:08,320 --> 01:03:11,960
Speaker 1: pitching that's excellent in one hundred and nineteen total endings.

1145
01:03:12,520 --> 01:03:15,120
Speaker 1: He was a throw in in the Ozuna trade, the

1146
01:03:15,200 --> 01:03:18,840
Speaker 1: fourth piece included in that who was recently out of

1147
01:03:18,880 --> 01:03:21,520
Speaker 1: college and was putting up some nice numbers in the

1148
01:03:21,640 --> 01:03:24,400
Speaker 1: very low levels of the miners. He's always been a

1149
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:27,280
Speaker 1: guy that can attack the strike zone and that was

1150
01:03:27,280 --> 01:03:30,520
Speaker 1: about it. That there were questions about the stuff. Velocity

1151
01:03:30,880 --> 01:03:35,120
Speaker 1: is below average, and all of his secondary pitches were

1152
01:03:35,240 --> 01:03:37,720
Speaker 1: a big question mark coming into the year, he had

1153
01:03:37,760 --> 01:03:40,000
Speaker 1: had some issues keeping balls in the ballpark, which is

1154
01:03:40,040 --> 01:03:42,520
Speaker 1: a big red flag. When you're pitching against similar age

1155
01:03:42,560 --> 01:03:47,080
Speaker 1: competitions and you're getting barreled by them, it's it raises

1156
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:50,920
Speaker 1: questions about whether your stuff is good enough to compete.

1157
01:03:51,080 --> 01:03:54,280
Speaker 1: Even earlier this year, he had some rough patches while

1158
01:03:54,280 --> 01:03:58,840
Speaker 1: he was with Jupiter, and he straightened it out. It's

1159
01:03:58,880 --> 01:04:02,000
Speaker 1: a little unclear what the switch really flipped for him.

1160
01:04:02,000 --> 01:04:05,000
Speaker 1: He got a promotion to double A Jacksonville when they

1161
01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:07,720
Speaker 1: needed an extra arm in the bullpen, and then as

1162
01:04:07,720 --> 01:04:09,680
Speaker 1: the season wore on, there was an opening in the

1163
01:04:09,760 --> 01:04:13,720
Speaker 1: rotation and he squeezed into the rotation he had already

1164
01:04:13,720 --> 01:04:15,880
Speaker 1: been stretched out in previous years to be a starter.

1165
01:04:16,240 --> 01:04:19,880
Speaker 1: The question was whether he was capable of getting multiple

1166
01:04:19,880 --> 01:04:22,800
Speaker 1: times through a lineup and still being successful with that

1167
01:04:23,240 --> 01:04:28,360
Speaker 1: high eighties fastball in the questionable secondaries, and he answered

1168
01:04:28,400 --> 01:04:31,040
Speaker 1: it with a pretty emphatic yes. He was one of

1169
01:04:31,080 --> 01:04:34,440
Speaker 1: their hottest pitchers during the middle of the season, had

1170
01:04:34,440 --> 01:04:40,480
Speaker 1: an insane streak where he piled up almost perfect strikeout

1171
01:04:40,520 --> 01:04:43,320
Speaker 1: to walk ratio over a series of a handful of

1172
01:04:43,360 --> 01:04:47,840
Speaker 1: starts in Jacksonville. Won the single best games I witnessed

1173
01:04:48,000 --> 01:04:51,160
Speaker 1: all year from Marlin's prospect was his complete game victory

1174
01:04:51,480 --> 01:04:54,440
Speaker 1: for Jacksonville in the middle of the year, where he

1175
01:04:54,520 --> 01:04:57,480
Speaker 1: racked up thirteen strikeouts, which was easily a career high,

1176
01:04:57,560 --> 01:05:00,360
Speaker 1: and that's a career high for even some great top

1177
01:05:00,400 --> 01:05:05,120
Speaker 1: of the line pitching prospects. He had an excellent change up,

1178
01:05:05,120 --> 01:05:09,040
Speaker 1: it seemed working in that game, and that was something

1179
01:05:09,080 --> 01:05:11,960
Speaker 1: that people didn't believe that he had entering the year

1180
01:05:12,600 --> 01:05:14,800
Speaker 1: eligible for the Rule five drafts coming up and not

1181
01:05:14,880 --> 01:05:17,400
Speaker 1: on the forty man roster. That's something we've mentioned a

1182
01:05:17,440 --> 01:05:21,160
Speaker 1: few times, guys that will be susceptible to being claimed

1183
01:05:21,160 --> 01:05:23,920
Speaker 1: by other teams. This is a kind of first world

1184
01:05:23,960 --> 01:05:26,440
Speaker 1: problem that you have once your farm system reaches an

1185
01:05:26,440 --> 01:05:28,600
Speaker 1: elite status, is being able to hold on to all

1186
01:05:28,640 --> 01:05:31,680
Speaker 1: the guys that you want to. And that's why he's

1187
01:05:31,680 --> 01:05:36,360
Speaker 1: in my curiosities because not a conventional big time prospect

1188
01:05:36,840 --> 01:05:40,640
Speaker 1: and still a question Marcus so what his stuff will

1189
01:05:40,640 --> 01:05:43,080
Speaker 1: look like in the major leagues and how successful he'll

1190
01:05:43,120 --> 01:05:45,120
Speaker 1: be there, But the step forward that he took this

1191
01:05:45,200 --> 01:05:48,120
Speaker 1: season makes you wonder. So he's one of the more

1192
01:05:48,160 --> 01:05:53,320
Speaker 1: mature pitchers that they have who will be vulnerable to

1193
01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:56,280
Speaker 1: the Rule five, and I think it could go either

1194
01:05:56,320 --> 01:05:58,200
Speaker 1: way with whether or not he gets drafted or not,

1195
01:05:58,560 --> 01:06:02,600
Speaker 1: depending on what a team that's drafting in that physician

1196
01:06:02,760 --> 01:06:06,640
Speaker 1: needs from the Marlins. But he's someone that the Marlins

1197
01:06:06,640 --> 01:06:09,520
Speaker 1: would be pretty happy if he's able to sneak through

1198
01:06:09,640 --> 01:06:13,120
Speaker 1: the Rule five. Sean Gunther put up a two point

1199
01:06:13,360 --> 01:06:16,560
Speaker 1: two er three point oh one FIP in his seventy

1200
01:06:16,560 --> 01:06:19,760
Speaker 1: one and a third innings pitched with Clinton and with Jupiter.

1201
01:06:20,360 --> 01:06:24,080
Speaker 1: He has an amazing ability to pound the strike zone

1202
01:06:24,120 --> 01:06:26,600
Speaker 1: and make the batters do something with it. He was

1203
01:06:26,640 --> 01:06:30,560
Speaker 1: on a pretty historic pace earlier this year until hitting

1204
01:06:30,600 --> 01:06:32,680
Speaker 1: a bit of a rough spot as things went on

1205
01:06:33,000 --> 01:06:37,560
Speaker 1: in terms of not issuing walks to anybody under any circumstances,

1206
01:06:38,000 --> 01:06:43,240
Speaker 1: no matter what he was had repeated appearances stretching multiple

1207
01:06:43,280 --> 01:06:46,440
Speaker 1: innings out of the bullpen. A lot of versatility there

1208
01:06:46,560 --> 01:06:49,960
Speaker 1: with how long his outings will go, and I think

1209
01:06:50,000 --> 01:06:51,880
Speaker 1: he even had a few where he went multiple times

1210
01:06:51,920 --> 01:06:54,440
Speaker 1: through the order coming out of the bullpen, So some

1211
01:06:54,560 --> 01:06:59,240
Speaker 1: versatility there with his role. The raw stuff, once again,

1212
01:06:59,280 --> 01:07:01,640
Speaker 1: like Castano, is not going to blow you away, but

1213
01:07:01,840 --> 01:07:04,720
Speaker 1: the fundamental ability to throw pitches where you want them

1214
01:07:05,000 --> 01:07:07,640
Speaker 1: and get yourself in favorable accounts. That goes a long way.

1215
01:07:08,400 --> 01:07:12,600
Speaker 1: And thirdly, Mackenzie mills a five point three six ERA

1216
01:07:13,200 --> 01:07:17,160
Speaker 1: four point ninety nine eighty four innings. He had been

1217
01:07:17,840 --> 01:07:21,800
Speaker 1: long regarded as a hopeful starting pitching prospect, once with

1218
01:07:21,840 --> 01:07:25,160
Speaker 1: the Nationals organization, then with the Phillies organization, traded to

1219
01:07:25,200 --> 01:07:28,840
Speaker 1: the Marlins in the Justin Boor trade. So it raised

1220
01:07:28,840 --> 01:07:33,680
Speaker 1: a few eyebrows last offseason when the Marlins got him

1221
01:07:33,960 --> 01:07:36,000
Speaker 1: very quick look at him at Double A and then

1222
01:07:36,000 --> 01:07:38,160
Speaker 1: they left him unprotected for the Rule five even though

1223
01:07:38,160 --> 01:07:41,040
Speaker 1: he was eligible last year, he did not get picked up,

1224
01:07:41,600 --> 01:07:45,200
Speaker 1: and the Marlins had another year to figure out exactly

1225
01:07:45,240 --> 01:07:48,320
Speaker 1: what he is and they didn't get any definitive answers

1226
01:07:48,360 --> 01:07:53,040
Speaker 1: this year. He is relatively tall pitcher, very long legs,

1227
01:07:53,520 --> 01:07:56,280
Speaker 1: and it reminds me a little bit, just a little

1228
01:07:56,280 --> 01:08:00,600
Speaker 1: bit of Dontrelle Willis with the frame that he has,

1229
01:08:00,680 --> 01:08:04,520
Speaker 1: just not nowhere near the kind of effectiveness that d

1230
01:08:04,680 --> 01:08:07,680
Speaker 1: Train did. And I'm not entirely sure where they go

1231
01:08:07,720 --> 01:08:10,360
Speaker 1: from here. He was a starting pitcher entering the season,

1232
01:08:10,720 --> 01:08:14,120
Speaker 1: had his struggles, god moved to the bullpen. It was

1233
01:08:14,120 --> 01:08:17,200
Speaker 1: really because of his struggles that Castano got his opportunity

1234
01:08:17,400 --> 01:08:20,839
Speaker 1: to establish himself with Jacksonville. Mills moved to the bullpen

1235
01:08:21,360 --> 01:08:24,360
Speaker 1: where his velocity did play up a little bit and

1236
01:08:24,400 --> 01:08:27,360
Speaker 1: he was able to simplify his approach to just fastball,

1237
01:08:27,439 --> 01:08:31,479
Speaker 1: breaking ball. Had some nice stretches in there of success,

1238
01:08:31,840 --> 01:08:34,240
Speaker 1: also had some really ugly outings where he couldn't put

1239
01:08:34,280 --> 01:08:36,479
Speaker 1: the ball where he wanted to do and just couldn't

1240
01:08:36,520 --> 01:08:41,280
Speaker 1: throw strikes. So, in some ways the opposite of Castano

1241
01:08:41,520 --> 01:08:43,320
Speaker 1: and that they're in a similar position coming up on

1242
01:08:43,360 --> 01:08:47,559
Speaker 1: this offseason. But in terms of performance, Mills underwhelmed this year,

1243
01:08:48,200 --> 01:08:50,479
Speaker 1: and I don't think the Marlins are going to be

1244
01:08:50,520 --> 01:08:52,920
Speaker 1: especially tied to him just because he was a return

1245
01:08:53,040 --> 01:08:56,799
Speaker 1: for Justin Bohr. I don't think that will play into

1246
01:08:57,240 --> 01:09:00,000
Speaker 1: their decision making as they figure out who their most

1247
01:09:00,080 --> 01:09:03,559
Speaker 1: talented pitchers are moving forward. I still like his unique

1248
01:09:03,640 --> 01:09:07,200
Speaker 1: build in his delivery. I can see where that could

1249
01:09:07,200 --> 01:09:09,519
Speaker 1: be successful if he actually knows where his pitches are

1250
01:09:09,560 --> 01:09:12,600
Speaker 1: going and if the velocity continues to play up, and

1251
01:09:12,640 --> 01:09:16,200
Speaker 1: now that he's being in a more limited role. So

1252
01:09:16,240 --> 01:09:19,640
Speaker 1: these are questions to answer coming into twenty twenty, and

1253
01:09:19,880 --> 01:09:23,799
Speaker 1: Marlins have a lot of opportunities on their pitching staff,

1254
01:09:23,880 --> 01:09:27,240
Speaker 1: especially when it comes to potential relievers that I think

1255
01:09:27,280 --> 01:09:30,080
Speaker 1: Mills could take advantage of. So, despite the numbers, not

1256
01:09:30,200 --> 01:09:33,559
Speaker 1: somebody that I'm interested in giving up on yet, and

1257
01:09:33,800 --> 01:09:38,320
Speaker 1: the Marlins will figure out more about him as he

1258
01:09:38,360 --> 01:09:46,920
Speaker 1: gets opportunities. In twenty twenty, Marlins fans thank you for

1259
01:09:47,040 --> 01:09:51,120
Speaker 1: joining me Elis Susman for another edition of Ultimate Marlin's

1260
01:09:51,120 --> 01:09:53,679
Speaker 1: Depth Charts, as we went through all the left handed

1261
01:09:53,800 --> 01:09:56,840
Speaker 1: pitching options in the present, the near term future, the

1262
01:09:56,840 --> 01:10:00,160
Speaker 1: long term future. Hopefully you learn some new names in

1263
01:10:00,160 --> 01:10:03,400
Speaker 1: the process, at the very least some new attributes about

1264
01:10:03,400 --> 01:10:07,680
Speaker 1: these arms coming up through the Marlins organization. Personally, I

1265
01:10:07,680 --> 01:10:10,559
Speaker 1: think it is important for the Marlins to go after

1266
01:10:10,600 --> 01:10:15,200
Speaker 1: some left handed pitching this offseason, preferably in free agency.

1267
01:10:15,680 --> 01:10:18,400
Speaker 1: Take a gamble on some guys on one year deals,

1268
01:10:18,720 --> 01:10:20,960
Speaker 1: whether it's a veteran lefty to eat up some endings.

1269
01:10:20,960 --> 01:10:24,040
Speaker 1: I know Geo Gonzalez is a very popular selection because

1270
01:10:24,040 --> 01:10:28,240
Speaker 1: of his highalia roots even in the bullpen, some lefties

1271
01:10:28,280 --> 01:10:31,479
Speaker 1: that have swing and missibility, because that's something certainly lacking

1272
01:10:31,840 --> 01:10:35,719
Speaker 1: from the names that they currently have slated for those roles.

1273
01:10:36,439 --> 01:10:40,360
Speaker 1: You're relying on some good health and some good bouncebacks

1274
01:10:40,400 --> 01:10:43,760
Speaker 1: for this pitching staff just to be adequate in terms

1275
01:10:43,800 --> 01:10:46,479
Speaker 1: of getting opposing lefties out, and there's no reason to

1276
01:10:46,520 --> 01:10:50,320
Speaker 1: hope when you have so much payroll flexibility. The Marlins

1277
01:10:50,320 --> 01:10:53,320
Speaker 1: should be using it as they improve the major league

1278
01:10:53,360 --> 01:11:05,280
Speaker 1: product in twenty twenty and beyond. A huge FA